Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for LINDA-21
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 201559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.08.2021

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 73.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2021 0 30.1N 73.4W 992 54
0000UTC 21.08.2021 12 31.2N 73.6W 985 61
1200UTC 21.08.2021 24 33.6N 72.7W 979 70
0000UTC 22.08.2021 36 37.0N 71.8W 972 72
1200UTC 22.08.2021 48 39.9N 72.5W 976 55
0000UTC 23.08.2021 60 41.0N 74.3W 988 42
1200UTC 23.08.2021 72 42.0N 75.2W 999 25
0000UTC 24.08.2021 84 42.3N 73.0W 1001 28
1200UTC 24.08.2021 96 43.7N 69.8W 1001 29
0000UTC 25.08.2021 108 45.7N 65.1W 1005 27
1200UTC 25.08.2021 120 47.0N 59.1W 1009 26
0000UTC 26.08.2021 132 47.6N 54.5W 1011 26
1200UTC 26.08.2021 144 46.8N 50.4W 1012 26

HURRICANE GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 93.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2021 0 20.7N 93.8W 986 49
0000UTC 21.08.2021 12 20.9N 95.7W 976 66
1200UTC 21.08.2021 24 19.8N 98.4W 999 28
0000UTC 22.08.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 143.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2021 0 20.1N 143.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 21.08.2021 12 20.3N 146.3W 1006 36
1200UTC 21.08.2021 24 20.3N 148.6W 1005 34
0000UTC 22.08.2021 36 20.5N 150.4W 1004 35
1200UTC 22.08.2021 48 20.5N 152.4W 1005 36
0000UTC 23.08.2021 60 20.5N 154.3W 1006 34
1200UTC 23.08.2021 72 20.6N 157.1W 1010 34
0000UTC 24.08.2021 84 20.1N 159.2W 1011 27
1200UTC 24.08.2021 96 20.3N 162.0W 1012 27
0000UTC 25.08.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 20.0N 106.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2021 48 20.0N 106.1W 1000 39
0000UTC 23.08.2021 60 20.8N 109.5W 996 35
1200UTC 23.08.2021 72 21.4N 112.3W 995 39
0000UTC 24.08.2021 84 21.7N 115.3W 999 34
1200UTC 24.08.2021 96 21.7N 117.4W 1003 28
0000UTC 25.08.2021 108 21.7N 119.2W 1005 24
1200UTC 25.08.2021 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.4N 134.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2021 60 11.4N 134.1W 1006 23
1200UTC 23.08.2021 72 11.7N 134.1W 1006 26
0000UTC 24.08.2021 84 12.2N 134.3W 1006 29
1200UTC 24.08.2021 96 12.7N 134.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 25.08.2021 108 13.1N 133.3W 1005 28
1200UTC 25.08.2021 120 13.1N 132.6W 1005 28
0000UTC 26.08.2021 132 13.5N 132.1W 1004 27
1200UTC 26.08.2021 144 13.3N 132.4W 1005 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.1N 105.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2021 84 15.4N 106.4W 1002 28
1200UTC 24.08.2021 96 16.4N 108.9W 1000 32
0000UTC 25.08.2021 108 17.2N 111.4W 997 33
1200UTC 25.08.2021 120 17.4N 113.4W 995 37
0000UTC 26.08.2021 132 18.0N 115.5W 990 44
1200UTC 26.08.2021 144 18.9N 117.4W 985 49

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 11.1N 145.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2021 120 11.1N 145.3W 1007 22
0000UTC 26.08.2021 132 11.4N 145.3W 1007 23
1200UTC 26.08.2021 144 11.5N 145.3W 1007 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201559

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 201559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.08.2021

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 73.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2021 30.1N 73.4W MODERATE
00UTC 21.08.2021 31.2N 73.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2021 33.6N 72.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.08.2021 37.0N 71.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2021 39.9N 72.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.08.2021 41.0N 74.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2021 42.0N 75.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.08.2021 42.3N 73.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2021 43.7N 69.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2021 45.7N 65.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.08.2021 47.0N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2021 47.6N 54.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2021 46.8N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 93.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2021 20.7N 93.8W MODERATE
00UTC 21.08.2021 20.9N 95.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2021 19.8N 98.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 143.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2021 20.1N 143.3W WEAK
00UTC 21.08.2021 20.3N 146.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2021 20.3N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2021 20.5N 150.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2021 20.5N 152.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2021 20.5N 154.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2021 20.6N 157.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2021 20.1N 159.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2021 20.3N 162.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 20.0N 106.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2021 20.0N 106.1W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2021 20.8N 109.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2021 21.4N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2021 21.7N 115.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.08.2021 21.7N 117.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.08.2021 21.7N 119.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.4N 134.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.08.2021 11.4N 134.1W WEAK
12UTC 23.08.2021 11.7N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2021 12.2N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2021 12.7N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2021 13.1N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2021 13.1N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2021 13.5N 132.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2021 13.3N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.1N 105.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2021 15.4N 106.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.08.2021 16.4N 108.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2021 17.2N 111.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2021 17.4N 113.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2021 18.0N 115.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.08.2021 18.9N 117.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 11.1N 145.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.08.2021 11.1N 145.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 26.08.2021 11.4N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2021 11.5N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201559

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 201445
TCDCP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Linda Discussion Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122021
500 AM HST Fri Aug 20 2021

Linda's time as a tropical cyclone has come to an end. Infrared and
VIIRS day-night satellite imagery depict an elongating low cloud
swirl, and deep convection has been absent over the center for
nearly 24 hours, thus Linda is deemed to be post-tropical. The
initial intensity estimate of 35 kt for this advisory remains
heavily influenced by a recent scatterometer pass that indicated
winds to 40 kt north of the center.

The initial motion estimate is 280/15 kt, with Linda being steered
by a persistent low- to mid-level ridge to the north. Tightly-
clustered track guidance indicates that the ridge will continue to
drive the post-tropical remains of Linda toward the west, with a
slight reduction in forward speed tonight and Saturday. The guidance
has trended southward over the last couple of days, and the official
forecast indicates that remnants of Linda will impact portions of
the main Hawaiian Islands Sunday and Monday, in line with the
corrected consensus guidance HCCA, and the GEFS mean.

Compared to the recent rapid weakening, a relatively slow rate of
decay of the wind field is expected over the next couple of days.
As the system gradually spins down, gale force winds north of the
center will be slow to diminish, due to the gradient between the
high to the north and the remnant low. Some sporadic deep convection
may also occur, but the combined effects of dry air in the mid- and
upper-levels and increasing vertical wind shear will prevent
regeneration into a tropical cyclone, and lead to system dissipation
by day 4. This is supported by the reliable global models, as well
as the intensity consensus IVCN.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Linda. Future information on this system can be found in
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu, on
the web at http://weather.gov/hfo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 20.3N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 21/0000Z 20.5N 146.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/1200Z 20.7N 148.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/0000Z 20.9N 150.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/1200Z 21.0N 152.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 23/0000Z 21.1N 154.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 21.3N 156.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 201440
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Linda Advisory Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122021
500 AM HST Fri Aug 20 2021

...LINDA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL EAST OF HAWAII...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 144.0W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Although Linda has become post-tropical, remnants of the system are
expected to impact portions of the main Hawaiian Islands Sunday and
Monday. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of the
remnant low.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Linda
was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 144.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
few days, with some slowing in forward speed tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, with
weakening expected thereafter. Dissipation is expected early next
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda will affect east facing shores
of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days. Please
consult products from the National Weather Service's Honolulu
Forecast Office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on Linda. Future information on this system can be
found in forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in
Honolulu, on the web at http://weather.gov/hfo.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 201436
TCMCP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 144.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 144.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 143.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 146.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N 148.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.9N 150.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 152.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.1N 154.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.3N 156.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 144.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON LINDA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
HONOLULU...ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/HFO/MARINE.

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 200845
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122021
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 19 2021

The clock is ticking on Linda's time as a tropical cyclone.
Infrared satellite imagery indicates a lack of deep convection over
the last 12 to 18 hours, with some cooler cloud tops north of the
low-level center being rapidly ushered away by strong upper-level
winds. A well-timed 0528Z ASCAT pass was the primary reason for
maintaining the initial intensity at 40 kt for this advisory, with
these winds confined to the northern semicircle.

The initial motion estimate is 270/15 kt, with Linda being steered
by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The ridge will continue
to steer the system westward, although some slowing in forward speed
is expected Friday and Saturday. The updated track forecast has
changed very little from the previous official forecast, but a
slight southward nudge was made beyond 48 hours, in line with the
latest, tightly-clustered guidance.

Although Linda has rapidly weakened over the last day or so, a much
slower rate of weakening is expected over the next couple of days,
even as Linda becomes post-tropical. This is supported by global
model guidance, as well as the intensity consensus IVCN, which
indicate a gradual spin-down of the low-level cloud swirl, with gale
force winds persisting in the northern semicircle for a couple more
days. The combined effects of cool SSTs, dry air in the mid- and
upper-levels, and strong vertical wind shear will lead to system
dissipation by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 19.9N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 20.3N 144.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/0600Z 20.5N 147.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/1800Z 20.9N 149.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 22/0600Z 21.1N 151.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 22/1800Z 21.4N 153.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z 21.4N 156.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z 21.5N 161.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 200837
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122021
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 19 2021

...LINDA BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 142.5W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 142.5 West. Linda is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with some
slowing in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Linda is expected to become post-tropical on Friday, with slow
weakening forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda will affect east facing shores
of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days. Please
consult products from the National Weather Service's Honolulu
Forecast Office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 200834
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122021
0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 142.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 142.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 141.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.3N 144.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 147.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.9N 149.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.1N 151.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.4N 153.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.4N 156.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 161.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 142.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 200323
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122021
500 PM HST Thu Aug 19 2021

Linda continues to slowly weaken as evident by the lack of deep
convection associated with the system. A well defined low and mid
level cloud swirl is all that remains. The latest subjective Dvorak
estimates suggest that the cyclone's initial intensity has decreased
to around 40 kt.

Cooler SSTs and a drier and more stable air mass out ahead of the
system should prevent any significant deep convection from returning
over the next couple of days. Therefore, Linda could be declared a
post-tropical low sometime tonight. The low will reach warmer waters
in a couple of days but strong southwesterly shear should inhibit
regeneration of the cyclone, and the low should open up into a
trough early next week. The latest CPHC intensity forecast remains
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus.

Over the past several hours, Linda has been moving slightly north
of due west at around 15 kt. Linda will continue to be steered by
a low-mid level ridge to its north. Thus a general westward motion
is expected for the system until it dissipates in about 5 days.
The latest CPHC track forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is within the tightly packed track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.9N 141.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 20.2N 143.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/0000Z 20.5N 146.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1200Z 20.9N 148.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 21.2N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 21.5N 153.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 21.8N 155.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 22.2N 160.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Burke

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 200316
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 141.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 278 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 141.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 140.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.2N 143.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 146.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 148.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.2N 150.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 153.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.8N 155.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.2N 160.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 141.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 200239
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122021
500 PM HST Thu Aug 19 2021

Linda continues to slowly weaken as evident by the lack of deep
convection associated with the system. A well defined low and mid
level cloud swirl is all that remains. The latest subjective Dvorak
estimates suggest that the cyclone's initial intensity has decreased
to around 40 kt.

Cooler SSTs and a drier and more stable air mass out ahead of the
system should prevent any significant deep convection from returning
over the next couple of days. Therefore, Linda could be declared a
post-tropical low sometime tonight. The low will reach warmer waters
in a couple of days but strong southwesterly shear should inhibit
regeneration of the cyclone, and the low should open up into a
trough early next week. The latest CPHC intensity forecast remains
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus.

Over the past several hours, Linda has been moving slightly north
of due west at around 15 kt. Linda will continue to be steered by
a low-mid level ridge to its north. Thus a general westward motion
is expected for the system until is dissipates in about 5 days. The
latest CPHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one,
and is within to the tightly packed track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.9N 141.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 20.2N 143.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/0000Z 20.5N 146.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1200Z 20.9N 148.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 21.2N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 21.5N 153.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 21.8N 155.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 22.2N 160.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Burke

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 200237
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122021
500 PM HST Thu Aug 19 2021

Linda continues to slowly weaken as evident by the lack of deep
convection associated with the system. A well defined low and mid
level cloud swirl is all that remains. The latest subjective Dvorak
estimates suggest that the cyclone's initial intensity has decreased
to around 40 kt.

Cooler SSTs and a drier and more stable air mass out ahead of the
system should prevent any significant deep convection from returning
over the next couple of days. Therefore, Linda could be declared a
post-tropical low sometime tonight. The low will reach warmer waters
in a couple of days but strong southwesterly shear should inhibit
regeneration of the cyclone, and the low should open up into a
trough early next week. The latest CPHC intensity forecast remains
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus.

Over the past several hours, Linda has been moving slightly north
of due west at around 15 kt. Linda will continue to be steered by
a low-mid level ridge to its north. Thus a general westward motion
is expected for the system until is dissipates in about 5 days. The
latest CPHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one,
and is within to the tightly packed track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.9N 141.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 20.2N 143.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 21/0000Z 20.5N 146.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1200Z 20.9N 148.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 21.2N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 21.5N 153.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 21.8N 155.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 22.2N 160.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Burke

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 200234
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122021
500 PM HST Thu Aug 19 2021

...WEAKENING LINDA ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 141.1W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 278 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 141.1 West. Linda is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Linda is expected to become
post-tropical tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next advisory will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center by 1100 PM HST Thursday.

$$
Forecaster Burke


>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 200233
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 141.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 278 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 141.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 140.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.2N 143.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 146.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 148.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.2N 150.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 153.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.8N 155.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.2N 160.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 141.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER BURKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 192033
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 19 2021

Linda continues to come unhinged. Dry and stable air has wrapped
almost completely into the cyclone's circulation, as indicated by
the low-level stratocumulus cloud field that now primarily
characterizes the system. Linda has now lacked organized deep
convection for nearly 6 h. A blend of the T- and CI- numbers from
the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the
cyclone's initial intensity has decreased to 45 kt. Cool SSTs of
24-25 C and dry, stable air should prevent any significant deep
convection from returning over the next couple of days. Therefore,
Linda could be declared post-tropical by tonight. The low will reach
warmer waters in a few days. However, by that time, strong
southwesterly shear within a dry environment should inhibit
regeneration of the cyclone, and the low should should open into a
trough early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains
near the HCCA and IVCN consensus.

Over the past several hours Linda has moved almost due west with a
12 h motion of about 275/15 kt. Steered by a low- mid-level ridge to
its north, a general westward motion is expected until the system
dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and is close to the tightly packed track guidance.

Linda is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be
the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Linda
can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP3
and WMO header WTPA23 PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.7N 139.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.9N 141.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 20/1800Z 20.2N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 20.4N 147.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 20.8N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 21.1N 151.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 21.5N 153.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 22.0N 158.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 192032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 139.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 139.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 138.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.9N 141.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.2N 144.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 147.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.8N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.1N 151.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 153.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 158.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 139.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON LINDA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP3 ...WMO HEADER
WTPA23 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 192032
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 19 2021

...LINDA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 139.5W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1630 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 139.5 West. Linda is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Linda is expected to become
post-tropical by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Linda. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3, WMO header
WTPA33 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at
hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 191436
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Thu Aug 19 2021

Linda has weakened rapidly over the past several hours. The
cyclone no longer has an eye, and its deep convection is dissipating
and becoming confined mainly to the north of the low-level center.
The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB both
indicate that the initial intensity has decreased to 60 kt, making
Linda a tropical storm.

The initial motion estimate is now 280/14 kt. This general motion is
forecast to continue for the next several days as the cyclone
remains in the flow to the south of a strong subtropical ridge. The
model track guidance is in very good agreement, and the latest NHC
track forecast lies near the various consensus model solutions.

The cooler waters of 24-25 C and dry, stable air are taking their
toll on Linda. These conditions are not supportive of the return of
deep convection, and therefore the cyclone should continue to
quickly weaken in the short term. Based on the convective trends,
there is a possibility that Linda could degenerate into a
post-tropical gale within the next couple of days. The NHC forecast
is conservative and shows Linda remaining a tropical cyclone through
Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the
IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.9N 137.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 20.3N 139.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 20.7N 142.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 21.0N 145.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.3N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.7N 150.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/1200Z 22.0N 152.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/1200Z 22.7N 157.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 23.2N 162.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 191435
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 137.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 137.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 136.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.3N 139.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 142.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.0N 145.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N 148.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.7N 150.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 152.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.7N 157.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 23.2N 162.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 137.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 191436
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Thu Aug 19 2021

...LINDA QUICKLY WEAKENING ...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 137.6W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 137.6 West. Linda is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Linda is
expected to become a gale-force post-tropical cyclone by Saturday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 190842
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 18 2021

Linda is slowly losing convective organization with the eye now
open in the western quadrant in both infrared and passive microwave
satellite imagery. However, the upper-level cirrus outflow remains
quite impressive and nearly symmetrical. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 75 kt based a blend of Dvorak satellite current
intensity (CI) estimates of 65 kt from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB, and
objective satellite intensity estimates of T4.3/72 kt and 77 kt
from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively.

The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 285/15
kt. This general motion is forecast by the global and regional
models to continue throughout the forecast period as Linda moves
along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge anchored
across most of the eastern and central Pacific basins. The new NHC
forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous
advisory track and lies close to the middle of the tightly clustered
simple- and corrected-consensus track models. On the current track,
Linda should cross into the Central Pacific basin in about 18 hours.

Linda is located over 24-25 C sea-surface temperatures (SST), which
are expected to remain steady for the next 48-60 hours, during
which the vertical wind shear is expected to remain low at around
5 kt. The favorable shear should help to offset the unfavorable
SSTs beneath the cyclone, resulting in a slower-than-normal rate
of weakening. Thereafter, SSTs are forecast to gradually increase
above 26 deg C on days 4 and 5. However, the vertical wind shear is
forecast to increase from the southwest in excess of 30 kt, causing
even greater weakening. The new official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and calls for Linda to steadily
weaken through the forecast period and degenerate into a
post-tropical gale by 60 hours, which is in line with the trend in
the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 19.7N 136.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 20.2N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 20.7N 141.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 21.0N 144.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 21.3N 147.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 21.7N 149.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/0600Z 22.1N 151.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/0600Z 23.0N 156.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0600Z 23.6N 161.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 190842
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 136.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 136.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 135.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.2N 138.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.7N 141.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 144.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.3N 147.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N 149.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.1N 151.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.0N 156.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 23.6N 161.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 136.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 190842
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 18 2021

...LINDA GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 136.2W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1975 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 136.2 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through
Friday, and Linda is expected to weaken to a tropical storm later
today, and become a gale-force post-tropical cyclone by Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 190252
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 PM HST Wed Aug 18 2021

The convective structure associated with long-lived Hurricane Linda
continues to gradually decay, especially on its western flank. In
fact, earlier visible satellite imagery showed that the mid-level
eye was starting to become displaced to the northeast of the
low-level center, a possible consequence of some sneaky westerly
mid-level shear impinging on the storm and importing very dry
mid-level air into the circulation from that direction. The latest
round of subjective Dvorak CI intensity estimates were both 5.0/90
kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, but their data T numbers have
started to decline. The latest NHC intensity estimate was lowered to
80 kt for this advisory given additional deterioration of the
hurricane's structure since that time.

Now that Linda is finally starting to lose its stable eyewall
structure it has maintained for the last 4-5 days, weakening should
begin in earnest under cooling sea-surface temperatures. While the
deep-layer shear in the SHIPS guidance remains low, there also
appears to be some mid-level westerly shear undercutting the outflow
layer, allowing very dry mid-level air below 40 percent to get
entrained into the circulation. As sea-surface temperatures decrease
to near 24 C in 24 hours the weakening rate should increase, and the
latest NHC intensity forecast has a faster rate of weakening than in
the previous one, following the HCCA guidance aid closely. Both the
ECMWF and GFS show Linda becoming devoid of deep convection between
48 to 60 hours, and the latest forecast makes Linda post-tropical by
that time.

The current motion of Linda continues off to the west-northwest, but
a little faster, at 285/14 kt. This general motion is expected to
continue throughout the forecast period as Linda remains steered by
a prominent mid-level ridge, which is expected to build-in west
along with the cyclone. The latest track guidance remains tightly
clustered pretty close to the previous NHC forecast track and only a
slight southward adjustment was made , following the HCCA guidance
aid. On the current track, Linda will be crossing over in the
Central Pacific basin in less than 24 hours, by 0000 UTC Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 19.2N 134.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.7N 137.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 20.4N 140.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 20.8N 143.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 21.1N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 21.5N 148.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/0000Z 21.9N 150.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/0000Z 22.8N 154.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0000Z 23.5N 160.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 190251
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 134.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 134.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 134.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.7N 137.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 140.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.8N 143.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.1N 145.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 148.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.9N 150.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 154.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 23.5N 160.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 134.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 190252
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 PM HST Wed Aug 18 2021

...LINDA FINALLY ON A MORE DISTINCT WEAKENING TREND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 134.7W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2135 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 134.7 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecasted through
Friday, and Linda is expected to become a gale-force post-tropical
cyclone by Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 182036
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 18 2021

Since the time of the previous advisory, satellite images show that
Linda's cloud tops have warmed and are less prevalent on its west
side. Visible imagery has also shown an increase in the low-level
cloud cover inside the eye, though Linda still displays a fairly
well-defined eye in infrared imagery. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and
SAB have decreased, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 85
kt for this advisory.

Linda is currently over SSTs near 26 C, but SSTs along the path of
the cyclone will decrease to below 25 C in about 6 hours, then
remain in the 24-25 C range between 6 to 48 hours. Vertical wind
shear will remain low through 48 h, then steadily increase during
the day 3 to 5 period as Linda approaches a potent upper-level
trough located to the northwest of Oahu. Perhaps even more
detrimental than the gradually increasing wind shear is the dry
airmass that Linda is embedded in, with environmental mid-level
relative humidity values of less than 40 percent. Mid-level moisture
is forecast to decrease further over the next 48 hours. A
combination of these environmental factors will ultimately lead to
the loss of deep convection, and Linda is forecast to become a
post-tropical gale by Saturday. Although the intensity forecast
reasoning has not changed appreciably, a slightly faster weakening
rate is forecast through the first 36 hours. However, the new NHC
intensity forecast still lies at the high end of the guidance during
that time. Beyond 36 h, little change has been made to the previous
forecast.

The initial motion is 285/12 kt. A well-established subtropical
ridge should steer Linda in a westward to west-northwestward fashion
during the next 5 days. There is essentially no change to the
forecast track through 72 hours. Thereafter, a slight southward
nudge was made, but still lies just to the north of the TVCE and
HCCA consensus aids. Linda is forecast to cross into the Central
Pacific in about 30 h and is expected to pass to the north of the
Hawaiian Islands as a post-tropical gale late Sunday into Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.7N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 19.3N 135.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 20.0N 138.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 20.6N 141.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 21.0N 144.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 21.3N 146.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 21.8N 149.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/1800Z 22.7N 153.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/1800Z 23.4N 158.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 182035
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 18 2021

...LINDA SLIGHTLY WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 133.2W
ABOUT 1430 MI...2300 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 133.2 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast through Friday, and Linda is
expected to become a gale-force post-tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 182035
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 133.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 133.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 132.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.3N 135.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 138.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.6N 141.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 45SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 144.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 65NE 45SE 45SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.3N 146.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 149.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 55NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.7N 153.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.4N 158.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 133.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 181436
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Wed Aug 18 2021

Satellite images indicate that Linda has been maintaining its
intensity over the past 12 h or so. The hurricane has begun to
lose some of its annular characteristics, as cloud tops in the
northern semicircle are warmer than in the southern semicircle.
However, the eye remains clear, and the overall structure has not
changed much in the last 6 h. Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB
were both T-5.0/90 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 90
kt for this advisory.

Linda is currently over SSTs near 26C, but SSTs along the path of
the cyclone will decrease to below 25C in about 12 h, then remain
in the 24-25C range during the 12 to 48 h period. Vertical wind
shear will remain low through 48 h, but mid-level relative humidity
will decrease and become very dry over the next 48 h. Despite the
favorable dynamics through 48 h, the unfavorable thermodynamics
will likely cause weakening to below hurricane strength by 48 h. By
72 h, wind shear is forecast to increase and become strong by day 4
as Linda approaches a potent upper-level trough located to the
northwest of Oahu. This will ultimately lead to the loss of deep
convection, despite a slight increase in water temperatures along
the cyclone's path at that time. Linda is forecast to become a
post-tropical gale by Saturday morning. The NHC intensity forecast
is essentially unchanged from the previous forecast and is in best
agreement with the DSHP statistical-dynamical guidance.

The initial motion is 280/11, which is unchanged from 6 h ago.
There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. A well-established subtropical ridge should steer Linda
in a westward to west-northwestward fashion during the next 5 days.
The new NHC forecast track is virtually unchanged from the previous
one and is in best agreement with the TVCN and HCCA consensus
models. Linda is forecast to cross into the Central Pacific in
about 36 h and is expected to pass to the north of the Hawaiian
Islands as a post-tropical gale late Sunday into Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 18.2N 131.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.9N 133.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 19.7N 136.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 20.3N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 20.8N 142.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 21.2N 145.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 21.6N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/1200Z 22.6N 152.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/1200Z 23.5N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 181431
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.8W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.8W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 131.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.9N 133.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.7N 136.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.3N 140.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.8N 142.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.2N 145.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 148.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 152.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 157.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 131.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 181432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Wed Aug 18 2021

...LINDA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 131.8W
ABOUT 1525 MI...2455 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 131.8 West. Linda is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, and this general motion
should continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. A slow weakening trend is forecast to begin by tonight,
followed by more steady weakening Thursday through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 180854
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 17 2021

This evening's satellite presentation indicates that Linda's cloud
pattern hasn't changed much during the past 6 hours. The cyclone
has maintained its impressive annular structure, and the cloud tops
in the southern semicircle of the eyewall have cooled (-72 to -74C)
a little again. The various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates haven't changed from the previous 6-hour
classifications, and a blend of these data yields an initial
intensity of 90 kt for this advisory.

Gradual weakening should commence soon as the donut-shaped hurricane
begins moving over sub-25C water within the next 12-24 hours. The
GFS model soundings just downstream of Linda show some modest
westerly shear below 250 mb that could undercut the outflow a bit,
which would contribute to a more evident weakening trend. With that
in mind, the official forecast calls for Linda to finally weaken to
a tropical storm Thursday Night. Although oceanic temperatures
begin to increase again north of the Hawaiian Islands, an increase
in southwesterly shear should prevent regeneration of organized
convection and, therefore, Linda is forecast to become a
post-tropical gale by Friday night. The NHC intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one and is still in best
agreement with a blend of the statistical GFS SHIPS and the smart
HCCA multi-model intensity guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/11 kt. There
is no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. A well-established subtropical ridge should steer Linda
in a westward to west-northwestward fashion during the next 5 days.
The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the
previous one and is based primarily on a blend of the TVCN and HCCA
consensus track guidance. Linda should be crossing into the Central
Pacific by 48 hours, and is expected to pass to the north of the
Hawaiian Islands as a post-tropical gale late in the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 18.1N 130.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.5N 132.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 19.4N 135.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 20.2N 138.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 20.8N 141.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 21.2N 144.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 21.6N 146.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/0600Z 22.5N 151.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0600Z 23.3N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 180854
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0900 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 130.7W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 130.7W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.5N 132.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.4N 135.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.2N 138.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.8N 141.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.2N 144.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.6N 146.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 151.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N 156.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 130.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180854
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 17 2021

...STUBBORN LINDA REFUSES TO WEAKEN...
...STILL A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 130.7W
ABOUT 1385 MI...2225 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 130.7 West. Linda is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) A turn towards the
west-northwest is expected Wednesday morning, and this general
motion should continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight, but a slow
weakening trend is forecast to begin by tomorrow night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 180255
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 PM HST Tue Aug 17 2021

Linda has made a bit of a comeback over the last 6-12 hours. While
the eye continues to remain clear and warm, the eyewall convection
has been gradually cooling over the course of the day, with a
thickening ring of -60 to -65 C cloud top temperatures occasionally
surrounding the eye. This has led to an increase in the most recent
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates which at 0000 UTC were
T5.5/102 kt from SAB and T5.0/90 kt from TAFB. The latest objective
UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is up to T5.3/97 kt though the most recent
SATCON estimate was only 79 kt. Taking a blend of these data yields
an estimated intensity of 90 kt for this advisory.

Linda is starting to gain some latitude, with the estimated motion
now at 280/10 kt. The track guidance philosophy remains the same,
with a mid-level ridge well-established across the North Pacific
expected to keep Linda moving on a west-northwestward track thorough
the forecast period. Once again, the guidance has shifted a bit
faster over the forecast period, and the latest NHC track forecast
has also been nudged a little faster. Based on the latest forecast,
Linda should be crossing into the Central Pacific in about 48 hours,
and is expected to pass by to the north of the Hawaiian Islands as a
post-tropical gale late in the weekend.

Linda's recent increase in intensity could be related to the cyclone
moving over a small finger of warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs)
currently. The storm has continued to maintain its stable annular
structure, and little change in strength is expected during the next
12 h. However, SSTs will soon begin to decrease once again and
should drop below 25 C beyond 24 hours. While the deep-layer
vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS is expected to remain low for
the next 72 hours, a bit more westerly mid-level shear could begin
to undercut the outflow layer in 24-36 hours. For these reasons,
Linda should begin a more pronounced weakening trend after 24 hours,
with the tropical cyclone forecast to finally drop below hurricane
intensity Thursday Night. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains
on the high side of the guidance for the first 24 hours, but then is
brought down to the guidance mean afterwards, in best agreement with
the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) guidance. While SSTs do
begin to increase again after 72 hours, an increase in southwesterly
shear is expected to prevent organized convection from redeveloping
near the center, and Linda is forecast to become a post-tropical
gale by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 17.9N 129.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 18.4N 131.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 19.2N 133.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 20.0N 136.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 20.7N 140.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 21.3N 142.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 21.6N 145.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/0000Z 22.2N 150.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0000Z 22.7N 154.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 180249
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 PM HST Tue Aug 17 2021

...LINDA INTENSIFIES BACK INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 129.5W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 129.5 West. Linda is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn towards the
west-northwest is expected later tonight, with that motion
forecast to continue through the remainder of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change strength is expected tonight, but
a slow weakening trend is forecast to begin by the end of tomorrow.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 180248
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 129.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 129.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 129.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 131.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.2N 133.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N 136.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.7N 140.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.3N 142.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.6N 145.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N 150.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 154.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 129.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 172035
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021

Linda still has annular characteristics with a large circular
eye evident in satellite images and a ring of deep convection
surrounding that feature. Visible satellite images show
mesovorticies rotating around in the hurricane's eye. The Dvorak
classifications have nudged back up this cycle and range from 75 to
90 kt. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is raised
a little to 80 kt.

Linda has moved over slightly warmer waters during the past few
hours and is now hugging the 26 deg C isotherm. Annular hurricanes
like Linda typically hold their intensity or weaken at a slower pace
over cool waters than what is climatological, and it appears that
Linda is accomplishing that. Nonetheless, a combination of cool SSTs
and drier air should eventually cause a slow weakening trend during
the next several days. The models suggest that an increase in
southerly shear is likely toward the end of the forecast period, and
that could assist in the storm becoming post-tropical by then. The
NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the guidance in
the short term and then falls in line with the majority of the
guidance from days 3-5.

Linda is moving due westward at 270/9 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged. A mid-level ridge is expected to remain
anchored to the north of Linda, which should keep the storm on a
westward to west-northwestward track during the next several days.
The models have trended a little faster this cycle, and the NHC
track forecast has followed suit. Based on this prediction, Linda
is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in 48-60 h and
be located to the north or northeast of the Hawaiian Islands late
this weekend and early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 17.6N 128.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 18.1N 129.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.7N 132.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 19.6N 135.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 20.4N 138.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 21.0N 141.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 21.5N 143.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 22.1N 148.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/1800Z 22.6N 152.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 172034
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 128.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 128.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 127.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.1N 129.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.7N 132.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.6N 135.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.4N 138.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 141.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.5N 143.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.1N 148.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.6N 152.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 128.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 172034
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021

...LINDA REMAINS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 128.3W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 128.3 West. Linda is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, with that motion forecast to
continue through the remainder of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but a slow
weakening trend is predicted to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 171433
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021

Linda has not changed much during the past several hours. The
system still has characteristics of an annular hurricane with a
large circular eye (a little more than 30 n mi in diameter) and a
ring of deep convection completely surrounding that feature. The
convection in the eyewall appears a little less symmetric than it
was a few hours ago, however. A blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin support nudging the intensity down to 75 kt.

Even though Linda is over cool 25-26 deg C waters, research has
proven that tropical cyclones that are characterized by an annular
cloud pattern usually weaken more slowly than the climatological
rate in the eastern Pacific, and we expect Linda to be in that
category during the next day or so. Nonetheless, a combination of
cool SSTs and drier air should induce a slow weakening trend. The
models suggest that an increase in southerly shear is likely toward
the end of the forecast period, and that could assist in the storm
becoming post-tropical by then. The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the high end of the guidance in the short term and then falls
in line with the majority of the guidance from days 3-5.

Linda is moving nearly due westward at 265/9 kt. The track
forecast reasoning appears fairly straightforward. A mid-level
ridge is expected to remain anchored to the north of Linda, which
should keep the storm on a westward to west-northwestward track
during the next several days. The models are tightly clustered, and
only small changes were made to the previous track forecast. Based
on this prediction, Linda is expected to cross into the Central
Pacific basin in 60-72 h and be located to the north or northeast of
the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 127.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 17.8N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 18.3N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 19.1N 133.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 20.8N 139.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 21.3N 142.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 22.0N 147.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 151.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 171432
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 127.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 127.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 126.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 128.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.3N 131.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.1N 133.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.8N 139.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.3N 142.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 147.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 151.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 127.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 171433
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021

...LINDA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 127.4W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 127.4 West. Linda is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, with that motion forecast to
continue through the remainder of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast over the next several
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 126.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 126.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.7N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.1N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.8N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.8N 134.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.7N 137.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.3N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.1N 145.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.7N 149.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
171000Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 126.6W.
17AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1026 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 170838
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 16 2021

Linda has weakened, tonight. The eyewall has warmed during the past
6 hours, particularly in the west semicircle, and the convective
ring has also decreased significantly in coverage, but still
completely surrounds the 38 n mi diameter eye. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have all
decreased, and a blend of these data yields an initial intensity of
80 kt for this advisory. It's worth noting that Linda appears to be
losing its annular cloud pattern which now consists of spiral
banding features showing up in all quadrants.

As research has proven in the past, tropical cyclones that are
characterized by an annular cloud pattern usually weaken more slowly
than at a climatological rate in the eastern Pacific. Despite
currently moving over sub-26C waters, the low shear surrounding
environment could still offset the negative contribution of
gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures, at least for the next
12 hours. As I mentioned in the previous discussion, Linda may
still have an outside chance of restrengthening some, or leveling
off again, while the cyclone moves back over marginally warmer
water. Beyond this short term period, Linda is forecast to move
over much colder waters which should induce a faster weakening as
the cyclone crosses into the central Pacific. Global models
generally agree that Linda will lose organized deep convection in 4
days and become a post-tropical gale, and this is indicated in the
official forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 265/9 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Linda should
continue moving westward for the next 12 hours or so, followed by a
west-northwestward motion while the hurricane moves around the
southwest periphery of a mid-tropospheric high located over the
northeastern Pacific. The new NHC forecast track is essentially
just an extension of the previous one and is based primarily on the
better performing TVCN and HCCA consensus guidance.

A 0614 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated that Linda's wind
radii had contracted in all quadrants, and adjustments were made,
accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 17.6N 126.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 17.7N 127.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 18.1N 129.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 18.8N 132.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 19.8N 134.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 20.7N 137.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 21.3N 140.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 22.1N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/0600Z 22.7N 149.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 170837
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.4W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.4W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.7N 127.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.1N 129.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.8N 132.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.8N 134.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.7N 137.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.3N 140.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.1N 145.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.7N 149.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 126.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 170838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 16 2021

...LINDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 126.4W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 126.4 West. Linda is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast over the next several
days, and Linda should remain a hurricane through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles
(160 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to gradually subside
along the western coast of Baja California Sur during the next day
or two. However, additional longer-period swells not associated
with Linda are expected to reach the coasts of southwestern Mexico
and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula tonight and
Tuesday, and these swells are likely to continue causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 170401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 73.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.08.2021 18.2N 73.8W WEAK
12UTC 17.08.2021 18.1N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 19.1N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 19.4N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2021 19.5N 85.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 19.7N 88.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2021 20.0N 91.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2021 19.9N 93.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2021 19.5N 95.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2021 18.3N 98.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 30.8N 63.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.08.2021 30.8N 63.1W WEAK
12UTC 17.08.2021 30.3N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 30.1N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 30.0N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2021 29.8N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 29.6N 69.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2021 29.8N 71.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2021 30.2N 72.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2021 31.6N 73.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2021 33.6N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2021 36.5N 69.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2021 39.7N 67.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 23.08.2021 41.2N 67.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 30.7N 85.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.08.2021 30.7N 85.6W WEAK
12UTC 17.08.2021 32.5N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2021 34.1N 83.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 38.1N 81.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2021 39.9N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 40.9N 77.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 125.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.08.2021 17.7N 125.1W STRONG
12UTC 17.08.2021 17.5N 126.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 17.8N 128.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 18.3N 131.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2021 19.1N 133.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2021 19.9N 137.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2021 20.3N 140.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2021 20.5N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2021 20.8N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2021 20.6N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2021 20.5N 152.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2021 20.5N 154.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2021 20.5N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.3N 150.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2021 11.5N 151.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 23.08.2021 12.1N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 19.2N 106.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2021 19.2N 106.1W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2021 18.9N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170401

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 125.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 125.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.7N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.9N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.6N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.4N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.3N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.1N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.1N 144.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.9N 148.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170400Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 125.6W.
17AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 996 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 170232
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 PM HST Mon Aug 16 2021

This evening's conventional satellite images indicate that the
cloud pattern hasn't changed that much during the past 6 hours. If
anything, the eyewall cloud top temperatures continue to gradually
warm, however, the convective MG (-51 to -53C) ring is showing less
erosion in the west quadrant as noted earlier. A blend of the
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates supports
maintaining 85 kt for this advisory.

Finally, Linda has begun moving over cooler 25C waters, so we could
see some weakening overnight. NOAA's daily Real-Time Global Sea
Surface temperature analysis, however, reveals a marginally warm
pool of water just to the west of the hurricane. Consequently,
little change in strength, or possibly some restrengthening could
occur on Tuesday. Toward the end of the week, Linda is forecast to
traverse even cooler oceanic temperatures which should induce a
more rapid weakening as the cyclone crosses into the central
Pacific. The NHC forecast follows the statistical SHIPS intensity
model through 60 hours, then stays close to the IVCN consensus aid.

Linda is embedded in the deep easterly flow provided by high
pressure located over the northeast Pacific, and the initial motion
is 265/8 kt. The hurricane should be bending back to the right
(west-northwestward) around early Wednesday as the aforementioned
ridge builds to the northeast, behind a mid- to upper-level trough
approaching the U.S. west coast and the Baja California peninsula.
Global and regional models are in agreement that Linda should
continue moving toward the west-northwest through day 5, and the
official forecast follows suit. The track forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope, and is in best agreement with the
TVCN multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 17.7N 125.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 17.7N 126.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.9N 128.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 18.6N 130.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 19.4N 133.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 20.3N 136.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 21.1N 139.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 22.1N 144.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/0000Z 22.9N 148.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 170231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 PM HST Mon Aug 16 2021

...LINDA REFUSES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 125.4W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 125.4 West. Linda is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast over the next several days, and
Linda should remain a hurricane through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to gradually subside
along the western coast of Baja California Sur during the next day
or two. However, additional longer-period swells not associated
with Linda are expected to reach the coasts of southwestern Mexico
and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula beginning
tonight into Tuesday, and these swells are likely to continue
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 170231
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 125.4W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 125.4W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 125.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.7N 126.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.9N 128.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.6N 130.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.4N 133.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.3N 136.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.1N 139.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.1N 144.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.9N 148.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 125.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 162200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 124.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 124.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.6N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.7N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.2N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.0N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.9N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.7N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.0N 142.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.0N 146.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
162200Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 124.8W.
16AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 973 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 162049
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021

Linda still has a very striking appearance on visible satellite
imagery, with a well-defined large eye, and multiple eyewall
mesovorticies rotating about the mean center. However, the ring of
cold cloud tops associated with the eyewall has become just a touch
more ragged over the last few hours, and an earlier SSMIS microwave
pass at 1518 UTC showed a break in the singular eyewall on the south
side. The 1800 UTC Dvorak CI numbers were steady from SAB and TAFB,
but the data-T numbers have decreased a bit from earlier today. In
addition, the latest UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate was down to
T4.8/85-kt. Therefore, Linda is estimated to be a bit weaker this
advisory, with maximum sustained winds near 85-kt.

The initial motion is beginning to turn a bit more westward, now at
260/8 kt. A well-established mid-level ridge north of Linda is
expected to build in gradually to the northeast, allowing the storm
to begin gaining latitude starting tomorrow. This west-northwest
track is then expected to continue through the forecast period. The
latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one, and is
closest to the GEFX consensus, which is a simple blend of the most
recent GFS and ECMWF forecasts.

As discussed in previous advisories, Linda is expected to remain in
a low deep-layer vertical-wind-shear environment (below 10 kt) for
the next 4-5 days. Thus, Linda's intensity forecast is expected to
be driven by a combination of thermodynamic factors and the
cyclone's stable annular inner-core structure. While sea-surface
temperatures (SSTs) are only between 25-26 C under the hurricane
right now, the forecast track takes Linda back over slightly warmer
SSTs in the 12-36 h period, and this could delay weakening in the
short-term. The NHC intensity forecast continues to be above much of
the intensity guidance, showing little change in intensity over the
next 24-36 hours. In fact, when Linda moves over slightly warmer
SSTs tomorrow, it would not be surprising to see a bit of
restrengthening, assuming nearby dry-air does not disrupt the stable
eyewall structure. However by 48 hours, SSTs decrease below 26 C in
earnest and Linda is expected to begin a pronounced weakening trend.
Towards the end of the forecast, Linda should become devoid of deep
convection as indicated by the latest GFS and ECMWF IR brightness
temperature forecast, and Linda is expected to become a
post-tropical gale by Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.7N 124.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 17.6N 125.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.7N 127.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.2N 129.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 19.0N 132.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 19.9N 134.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 20.7N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 22.0N 142.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/1800Z 23.0N 146.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 162046
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 124.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 124.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.7N 127.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.2N 129.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 132.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 134.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.7N 137.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N 142.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 23.0N 146.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 162046
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021

...LINDA A BIT WEAKER BUT STILL A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 124.6W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 124.6 West. Linda is moving
just south of due west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the west and
then west-northwest is anticipated over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Only very gradual weakening is forecast over
the next several days, and Linda is expected to remain a hurricane
through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to gradually subside
along the western coast of Baja California Sur during the next day
or two. However, additional longer-period swells not associated
with Linda are expected to reach the coasts of southwestern Mexico
and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula beginning
tonight into Tuesday, and these swells are likely to continue
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.0N 123.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 123.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.6N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.5N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.9N 128.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.5N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.2N 133.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.1N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.6N 141.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.6N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161600Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 123.8W.
16AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 943 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 161453
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021

There has been little notable change in Linda's structure on
satellite imagery. The hurricane continues to possess annular
characteristics, with a well-defined warm eye up to +15 C
surrounded by a ring of -60 to -65 C cloud top temperatures
associated with the eyewall. The eyewall was also well-defined on a
recent 1003 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass. The most recent subjective
Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB were T5.5/102 kt and
T5.0/90 kt, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was T5.1/92 kt.
Thus, Linda is being maintained as a 90-kt hurricane for this
advisory, though this might be a bit on the conservative side.

The initial motion estimate continues off to the west-southeast, at
255/8 kt. The most recent track forecast is mostly just an update of
the previous one. Linda is expected to gradually make a rightward
turn from the west-southwest to the west-northwest as a strong
mid-level ridge to the north shifts its orientation. The latest NHC
track forecast remains is good agreement with the track consensus
guidance, blending the TVCN and HCCA aids.

Linda remains in a very low wind shear environment, with SHIPS
guidance diagnosing less than 5-kt of shear over the hurricane
currently. Even though sea-surface temperatures remain only
marginally warm along the Linda's forecast track, its continued
annular structure argues for only very gradual weakening over the
next 48 hours. Afterwards, Linda will cross over the 26 C isotherm
into cooler waters, and a faster rate of weakening is anticipated
after that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast over the first
couple of days remains higher than the majority of the model
guidance, and is closest to the ECMWF forecast. After Linda begins
to move over cooler waters in 60 h, the intensity forecast is
brought back down towards the intensity consensus. At the end of the
forecast period, Linda is expected to become a post-tropical gale
once deep organized convection ceases, as suggested by the GFS and
ECMWF simulated brightness temperature at that time frame.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.9N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.6N 124.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 18.5N 130.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 19.2N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 21.6N 141.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 22.6N 146.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 161449
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021

There has been little notable change in Linda's structure on
satellite imagery. The hurricane continues to possess annular
characteristics, with a well-defined warm eye up to +15 C
surrounded by a ring of -60 to -65 C cloud top temperatures
associated with the eyewall. The eyewall was also well-defined on a
recent 1003 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass. The most recent subjective
Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB were T5.5/102 kt and
T5.0/90 kt, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was T5.1/92 kt.
Thus, Linda is being maintained as a 90-kt hurricane for this
advisory, though this might be a bit on the conservative side.

The initial motion estimate continues off to the west-southeast, at
255/8 kt. The most recent track forecast is mostly just an update of
the previous one. Linda is expected to gradually make a rightward
turn from the west-southwest to the west-northwest as a strong
mid-level ridge to the north shifts its orientation. The latest NHC
track forecast remains is good agreement with the track consensus
guidance, blending the TVCN and HCCA aids.

Linda remains in a very low wind shear environment, with SHIPS
guidance diagnosing showing less than 5-kt of shear over the
hurricane currently. Even though sea-surface temperatures remain
only marginally warm along the Linda's forecast track, its
continued annular structure argues for only very gradual weakening
over the next 48 hours. Afterwards, Linda will cross over the 26 C
isotherm into cooler waters, and a faster rate of weakening is
anticipated after that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast over
the first couple of days remains higher than the majority of the
model guidance, and is closest to the ECMWF forecast. After Linda
begins to move over cooler waters in 60 h, the intensity forecast
is brought back down towards the intensity consensus. At the end of
the forecast period, Linda is expected to become a post-tropical
gale once deep organized convection ceases, as suggested by the GFS
and ECMWF simulated brightness temperature at that time frame.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.9N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.6N 124.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 18.5N 130.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 19.2N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 21.6N 141.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 22.6N 146.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 161447
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021

...LINDA MAINTAINING INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 123.7W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 123.7 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn back
toward the west is forecast tonight, followed by a west-
northwestward motion beginning by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only gradual weakening is forecast during the next few
days, and Linda is expected to maintain hurricane strength through
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to gradually subside
along the western coast of Baja California Sur during the next day
or two. However, additional longer-period swells not associated
with Linda are expected to reach the coasts of southwestern Mexico
and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula beginning
tonight into Tuesday, and these swells are likely to continue
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brennan


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 161447
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 123.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.6N 124.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.5N 130.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.2N 133.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 21.6N 141.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.6N 146.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BRENNAN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 18.3N 122.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 122.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.5N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.7N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.2N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.0N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.9N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.5N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.6N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161000Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 123.1W.
16AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 912 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND
171000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 160839
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 15 2021

Linda's satellite presentation continues to be an excellent example
of an annular hurricane with the classic doughnut shape. The
cloud pattern consists of a +14C warm eye and a deep convective
inner-core while lacking banding features. The Annular Hurricane
Index (AHI), which is included in the SHIPS intensity output,
calculated an AHI of 75 out of 100, with and AHI of 100 being best
fit to annular structure. Although the inner ring's cloud tops
have cooled a bit in the south quadrant (-67C), the northwest
portion of the eyewall has thinned out. It appears as though
some dry air is beginning to impinge on this part of the hurricane.
As a result, the objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates have decreased and support lowering the initial intensity
to 90 kt for this advisory.

Through Wednesday morning, only steady weakening is forecast as
Linda remains over marginal (26C) sea surface temperatures and in a
low wind shear environment. Beyond the 60 hour period, Linda will
move over a steep sea-surface temperature gradient (sub -24C) and
enter a dry more stable marine layer which should cause the
hurricane to weaken more quickly through day 5. The NHC intensity
forecast continues to follow the Decay-SHIPS model through 60
hours, then uses a blend of the global models and the IVCN/HCCA
consensus aids which show Linda becoming a post-tropical cyclone
Friday night.

The initial motion estimate is west-southwestward, or 250/9 kt,
There is, once again, little change to the track forecast
philosophy as strengthening mid-tropospheric high pressure over the
northeastern Pacific steers Linda west-southwestward to westward
through the 36 hour period. Afterward, a turn toward the
west-northwest is expected as Linda rounds the southwestern
periphery of the aforementioned ridge. The NHC forecast follows
the previous one closely and is in good agreement with the latest
dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

A 0338 and a 0454 UTC METOP-A and B scatterometer pass indicated
that Linda's wind radii had expanded a little in the west
semicircle, and adjustments were made, accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 18.2N 122.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.7N 124.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 17.5N 125.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.7N 127.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 18.2N 129.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 19.0N 132.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 19.9N 134.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 21.5N 140.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 22.6N 145.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 160838
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 122.9W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 122.9W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 125.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.7N 127.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.2N 129.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 132.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 134.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.5N 140.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.6N 145.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 122.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 160838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 15 2021

...LINDA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 122.9W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 122.9 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn back
toward the west is forecast this evening, followed by a
west-northwestward turn by Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only gradual weakening is forecast during the next few
days, and Linda is expected to maintain hurricane strength through
Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to gradually subside
along the western coast of Baja California Sur during the next day
or two. However, additional longer-period swells not associated
with Linda are expected to reach the coasts of southwestern Mexico
and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula beginning
tonight into Tuesday, and these swells are likely to continue
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 160400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.7N 121.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 121.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.2N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.8N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.7N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.1N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.6N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.5N 133.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.1N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.3N 142.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160400Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 122.2W.
16AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
874 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 160234
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 PM HST Sun Aug 15 2021

This evening's satellite presentation reveals little change in
Linda's annular cloud pattern. The eyewall consists of -60 to -65C
cloud tops and the 38-n-mi-diameter obscured eye temperature is a
warm +12C. Once again, using a consensus of the Final T- and CI-
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with a
blend of an earlier SATCON and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, the initial
intensity is held at 95 kt.

While Linda is expected to move in a generally west-southwestward
to westward motion during the next couple of days, the annular
hurricane will essentially be paralleling an oceanic temperature
gradient while remaining over 26-27C waters. Since the wind shear
component is forecast to remain low throughout the entire forecast,
only invading drier more stable air will negatively affect the
cyclone's intensity. Intensive research in the past has proven that
these truck-tire-shaped tropical cyclones tend to weaken slower
than the climatological rate recognized in the eastern Pacific.
Therefore, only slow weakening is forecast through the 60-hour
period. Afterward, Linda will move over a steep sea-surface
temperature gradient (sub-24C) which should induce a more rapid
weakening pace. The NHC intensity forecast is hedged closely to
the Decay-SHIPS model through 60 hours, then uses a blend of the
global models and the IVCN/HCCA consensus aids through day 5.

The initial motion estimate is west-southwestward, or 255/9 kt,
and this general heading should continue through Monday night. A
subsequent turn back to the west is forecast as mid-tropospheric
high pressure over the northeastern Pacific builds southward along
135W. At the 48-hour period, a turn toward the west-northwest is
expected as Linda rounds the southwestern periphery of the
aforementioned ridge. The latest NHC track forecast is basically
just an update of the previous one through day 3, and then is
adjusted slightly to the left closer to the TVCN consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 18.6N 122.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.2N 123.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.7N 126.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 18.1N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 18.6N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 19.5N 133.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 21.1N 138.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 22.3N 142.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 160233
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 122.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 122.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.2N 123.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.7N 126.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 128.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 133.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.1N 138.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.3N 142.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 122.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 160233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 PM HST Sun Aug 15 2021

...LINDA MAINTAINING STRENGTH...
...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 122.0W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 122.0 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn back
toward the west is forecast late Monday, followed by a
west-northwestward turn by Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only gradual weakening is forecast during the next few
days, and Linda is expected to maintain hurricane strength through
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to gradually subside
along the western coast of Baja California Sur during the next day
or two. However, additional longer-period swells not associated
with Linda are expected to reach the coasts of southwestern Mexico
and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula beginning
tonight into Tuesday, and these swells are likely to continue
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 152200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 18.9N 120.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 120.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.4N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.8N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.6N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.7N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.1N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.9N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.7N 136.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.5N 140.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152200Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 121.3W.
15AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
850 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 152031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 15 2021

...LINDA IS AN ANNULAR HURRICANE...
...ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 121.2W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Linda was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 121.2 West. Linda is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest is expected later today. A turn back toward the
west is forecast late Monday, followed by a west-northwestward turn
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only gradual weakening is forecast during the next few
days, and Linda is expected to maintain hurricane strength through
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to gradually subside
along the western coast of Baja California Sur during the next
day or two. However, additional longer-period swells not associated
with Linda are expected to reach the coasts of southwestern Mexico
and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula beginning
tonight into Tuesday, and these swells are likely to continue
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 152032
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 15 2021

Linda now has the classic truck tire or doughnut appearance of an
annular hurricane in infrared satellite imagery. The large eye is
about 35 n mi in diameter, and the surrounding cold cloud tops are
uniformly 70-90 n mi thick in all quadrants. The initial intensity
is lowered slightly to 95 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T5.0/90 kt
from TAFB and T5.5/102 kt from SAB, and this value also matches the
latest objective ADT and SATCON estimates.

Linda has almost turned toward the west-southwest with an initial
motion of 260/10 kt, a result of a strong mid-level high centered
over California and Nevada. This feature should push Linda toward
the west-southwest during the next 24 hours, but a repositioning of
the high over the North Pacific in a few days will allow the
hurricane to turn back toward the west by 36 hours and then the
west-northwest by day 3. The track models remain in good agreement
on this scenario. The NHC track forecast lies near the southern
edge of the guidance envelope, leaning towards the HCCA consensus
aid, and it essentially lies right on top of the previous official
forecast.

With little to no shear expected during the next 5 days, Linda's
intensity will be driven by thermodynamic factors. The hurricane's
west-southwestward motion has it paralleling the sea surface
temperature gradient, keeping it over waters around 26 degrees
Celsius for the next 3 days or so. Since annular hurricanes
typically weaken only gradually with these types of environmental
conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above the various
intensity consensus aids and leans toward the SHIPS model, which is
at the upper end of the guidance envelope. Linda is likely to
weaken below hurricane intensity after day 3 once it moves over
much colder waters. Although not explicitly shown here, it is
possible that Linda could lose organized deep convection and become
a post-tropical gale by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 18.8N 121.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 18.4N 122.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 17.8N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.6N 126.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.7N 127.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 18.1N 129.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 18.9N 132.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 20.7N 136.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 22.5N 140.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 152031
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 121.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 121.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.4N 122.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.8N 124.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.7N 127.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.1N 129.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.9N 132.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.7N 136.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.5N 140.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 19.1N 119.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 119.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.7N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.1N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.7N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.6N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.0N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.6N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.4N 135.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.3N 140.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 120.4W.
15AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 828 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 151432
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Sun Aug 15 2021

As was hypothesized in the previous advisory, it appears that Linda
is completing an eyewall replacement. An 0918 UTC GCOM AMSR2 pass
revealed the last-remaining vestiges of an inner eyewall decaying
within a newer, larger eye, which is estimated to be 35 n mi in
diameter based on the 89-GHz channel imagery. While the microwave
data still showed a few banding features on the western side of the
circulation, the hurricane has taken on annular characteristics,
with a relatively thick, solid ring of deep convection surrounding
the eye. This evolution is confirmed by the objective annular
hurricane screening algorithm. Cloud-top and eye temperatures
have not changed much since the previous advisory, with Dvorak CI
numbers ranging between 100-115 kt and objective estimates ranging
between 90-100 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 100 kt.

Linda has begun to lose some latitude, and the initial motion is
south of due west, or 265/10 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric high
centered over the western United States is forecast to slide
westward and southwestward over the Pacific during the next couple
of days, which should push Linda toward the west-southwest during
the next 36-48 hours. After that time, the ridge merges with
another high farther north, which will likely allow Linda to turn
back toward the west-northwest on days 3 through 5. The track
models are showing a near to below-normal amount of spread, and
therefore the NHC track forecast is of high confidence, lying near
the middle of the guidance envelope.

Vertical shear over Linda is expected to be less than 10 kt for the
next 5 days. Therefore, the hurricane's future intensity is likely
to be driven by thermodynamic factors, and its annular structure
will come into play. Linda is expected to move over near-constant
or gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures of 26-27 degrees
Celsius for the next several days, a scenario which is typical of
the gradual weakening noted by most annular hurricanes. Therefore,
the NHC intensity forecast is above the consensus aids and keeps
Linda at hurricane strength for the next 3 days. The weakening
trend could be even more gradual than indicated here, if the
statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance ends up being correct.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 19.0N 120.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 18.7N 121.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 18.1N 123.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.7N 125.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.6N 126.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 18.0N 128.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.6N 130.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 20.4N 135.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 22.3N 140.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 151432
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.7N 121.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 123.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.7N 125.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.6N 126.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 128.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.6N 130.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.4N 135.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 22.3N 140.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 120.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 151432
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Sun Aug 15 2021

...LINDA TAKING ON ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 120.2W
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Linda was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 120.2 West. Linda is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west or
west-southwest motion is expected through Monday night, followed
by a turn toward the west-northwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Linda is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next several days, and Linda is expected to maintain hurricane
status through Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to gradually subside
along the western coast of Baja California Sur during the next
day or two. However, additional longer-period swells not associated
with Linda are expected to reach the coasts of southwestern Mexico
and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula beginning
tonight into Tuesday, and these swells are likely to continue
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 118.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 118.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.1N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.6N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.0N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.7N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.9N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.4N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.2N 134.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.1N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151000Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 119.4W.
15AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 809 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 150844
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...LINDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
...HEADING DUE WEST OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 119.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 119.2 West. Linda is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest is anticipated this evening followed by a turn
back to the west on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Linda is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued gradual weakening
is forecast during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern and western coast
of Baja California Sur over the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 150844
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Some obvious changes have been noted with Linda during the past few
hours. Inner-core cloud top temperatures have continued to warm,
particularly in the western semicircle, and banding features have
appeared in the eastern part of the cyclone. Overall, the cloud
pattern has quickly become asymmetric and the eyewall could be open
in the western quadrant. It's been several hours since we've had a
quality microwave overpass, so it's unclear whether or not Linda's
undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Using a consensus of the
Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is
lowered to 100 kt for this advisory.

It appears that Linda is finally beginning a slow weakening trend.
The hurricane will soon be moving over gradually decreasing sea
surface temperatures and into more dry, stable marine layer air mass
later tonight. It may already be ingesting some dry air from the
west as a dry slot has become evident in the southern semicircle.
These impeding environmental contributions are expected to further
weaken the hurricane during the next several days. No significant
changes to the previous intensity forecast were made, and the latest
advisory continues to follow the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus
models.

The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt. The
track prediction philosophy remains unchanged as in the previous
advisory. A mid-tropospheric ridge situated north of the hurricane
is still forecast to build back westward to the northwest of Linda
during the next 24 h, instigating a turn toward the west-southwest.
By the 48-h period, Linda should to turn back toward the west and
west-northwest in response to a mid-level cut-off low or trough
developing west of the Baja California peninsula. The official track
forecast is nudged closer to the TVCN consensus model and is
basically an update of the previous NHC forecast.

A 0359 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass indicated that Linda's wind
radii had contracted some, and adjustments were made, accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 19.3N 119.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 19.1N 120.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 18.0N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.7N 125.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.9N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 18.4N 129.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 20.2N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 22.1N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 150843
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.2W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.2W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.1N 120.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 124.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.7N 125.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 127.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.4N 129.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.2N 134.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 22.1N 139.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 119.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 150712

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 35.9N 63.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2021 35.9N 63.8W WEAK
12UTC 15.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 61.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2021 16.6N 61.9W WEAK
12UTC 15.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 84.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2021 23.1N 84.0W WEAK
12UTC 15.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 117.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2021 19.2N 117.8W INTENSE
12UTC 15.08.2021 19.2N 119.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.08.2021 18.9N 121.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.08.2021 18.4N 123.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2021 18.1N 125.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.08.2021 18.0N 127.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 18.0N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 18.3N 132.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2021 18.9N 135.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 19.7N 138.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2021 20.5N 141.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2021 21.1N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2021 21.6N 146.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 25.9N 85.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2021 26.4N 86.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2021 28.0N 86.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2021 29.2N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2021 31.0N 85.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2021 33.2N 84.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 37.4N 82.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 33.5N 63.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2021 33.5N 63.3W WEAK
12UTC 16.08.2021 32.1N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2021 31.1N 64.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2021 30.6N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 30.5N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150712

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150712

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 35.9N 63.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2021 0 35.9N 63.8W 1020 14
1200UTC 15.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 61.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2021 0 16.6N 61.9W 1012 22
1200UTC 15.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 84.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2021 0 23.1N 84.0W 1012 29
1200UTC 15.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 117.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2021 0 19.2N 117.8W 948 88
1200UTC 15.08.2021 12 19.2N 119.9W 954 84
0000UTC 16.08.2021 24 18.9N 121.8W 971 66
1200UTC 16.08.2021 36 18.4N 123.5W 977 60
0000UTC 17.08.2021 48 18.1N 125.6W 982 56
1200UTC 17.08.2021 60 18.0N 127.7W 985 52
0000UTC 18.08.2021 72 18.0N 129.9W 988 51
1200UTC 18.08.2021 84 18.3N 132.6W 989 50
0000UTC 19.08.2021 96 18.9N 135.3W 992 49
1200UTC 19.08.2021 108 19.7N 138.2W 996 46
0000UTC 20.08.2021 120 20.5N 141.1W 1001 40
1200UTC 20.08.2021 132 21.1N 144.1W 1005 36
0000UTC 21.08.2021 144 21.6N 146.6W 1006 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 25.9N 85.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2021 24 26.4N 86.3W 1006 34
1200UTC 16.08.2021 36 28.0N 86.7W 1005 33
0000UTC 17.08.2021 48 29.2N 86.5W 1002 38
1200UTC 17.08.2021 60 31.0N 85.7W 1006 29
0000UTC 18.08.2021 72 33.2N 84.8W 1008 23
1200UTC 18.08.2021 84 37.4N 82.2W 1014 14
0000UTC 19.08.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 33.5N 63.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2021 24 33.5N 63.3W 1016 17
1200UTC 16.08.2021 36 32.1N 63.5W 1015 19
0000UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.1N 64.2W 1015 17
1200UTC 17.08.2021 60 30.6N 64.7W 1016 21
0000UTC 18.08.2021 72 30.5N 66.1W 1017 20
1200UTC 18.08.2021 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150712

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 150412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

UNKNOWN MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 63.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2021 36.7N 63.7W WEAK

TROPICAL STORM GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 61.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2021 17.0N 61.9W WEAK

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2021 23.2N 84.4W WEAK

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 117.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2021 19.2N 117.8W INTENSE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150412

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

UNKNOWN MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 63.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2021 0 36.7N 63.7W 1021 16

TROPICAL STORM GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 61.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2021 0 17.0N 61.9W 1014 25

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2021 0 23.2N 84.4W 1012 27

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 117.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2021 0 19.2N 117.8W 953 86


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150412

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 150400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 117.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 117.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.4N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.1N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.6N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.1N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.0N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.2N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.6N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.6N 137.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150400Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 118.4W.
15AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
805 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 150236
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Although Linda is still quite an impressive and powerful hurricane,
inner-core cloud tops have been warming during the past several
hours. Furthermore, the eye has become more obscured during the
past few hours, with convoluted cloud elements and a few
mesovortices identifiable in High resolution visible imagery. A
series of microwave images from earlier today, suggest a concentric,
outer convective ring may be forming, usually indicative of an
eyewall replacement cycle. The latest subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates indicate that Linda has weakened to
110 kt, and the initial intensity is lowered to this value for this
advisory.

With the possibility that Linda maybe undergoing an eyewall
replacement cycle, fluctuations in strength are possible during the
next few hours. Regardless of any inner-core structural changes,
Linda will be moving over gradually decreasing oceanic temperatures
and into a more statically stable and drier surrounding environment
during the next several days. Based on the statistical GFS and
ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance and the large-scale and regional
models, Linda should begin a weakening trend soon, if it hasn't
started already. The NHC intensity forecast resembles the previous
advisory, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN intensity
consensus aids.

Linda is embedded within the mid-tropospheric south peripheral flow
of a strengthening ridge to the north, and the initial motion is
estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt. This subtropical
ridge is forecast to build back westward to the northwest of Linda
during the next 24-36 h, inducing a turn toward the west-southwest.
Around early Tuesday, the hurricane is expected to turn back toward
the west and west-northwest in response to a mid-level cut-off low
forming west of the Baja California peninsula. The official track
forecast is based primarily on the TVCN consensus model and is quite
similar to the previous NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.3N 118.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 19.4N 119.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 19.1N 121.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.6N 123.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 18.1N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 18.0N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.2N 128.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 19.6N 133.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 21.6N 137.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 150235
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.2W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.2W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.4N 119.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 121.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.1N 125.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 127.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 128.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 19.6N 133.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.6N 137.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 118.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 150236
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...LINDA WEAKENS A LITTLE...
...STILL A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 118.2W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 118.2 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west is anticipated by early Sunday, followed by a turn toward the
west-southwest early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Linda is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity, due to a possible eyewall replacement, are possible
through this evening. However, a steady weakening trend is forecast
to commence soon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern and western coast
of Baja California Sur over the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 19.0N 116.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 116.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.4N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.3N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.8N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.1N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.0N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.2N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.1N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142200Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 117.2W.
14AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
823 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 142032
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Linda is maintaining category 4 strength this afternoon. The
hurricane continues to exhibit a well-defined eye of about 15 n mi
in diameter, with some mesoscale vortices noted within the eye on
visible imagery. Linda also has a fairly symmetrical convective
cloud and upper-level outflow pattern. The current intensity
estimate remains at 130 kt in agreement with the latest subjective
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Some short-term fluctuations in intensity are still possible through
tonight due to eyewall replacements. Vertical shear remains weak
over the system and the dynamical guidance indicates that it will
remain weak throughout the forecast period. However, the hurricane
will be moving over gradually cooling ocean waters with some drier
mid-tropospheric air in the environment during the next several
days. This should cause the powerful hurricane to begin to
gradually weaken. The official intensity forecast continues to
follow the NOAA Corrected Consensus prediction.

The direction of motion is gradually bending to the left, and the
initial motion is 285/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains
essentially the same as in the previous advisory package. A
mid-tropospheric ridge is predicted by the global models to build to
the northwest of Linda, and this should cause the system to turn
toward the west-southwest within the next couple of days. Later in
the forecast period, Linda is expect to turn back to the
west-northwest as the ridge shifts a little northward and becomes
more zonally-oriented. The official track forecast is very similar
to the previous one and is also very close to the dynamical model
consensus, TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 19.1N 117.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 19.4N 118.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 19.3N 120.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 18.8N 122.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.3N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 18.1N 126.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 18.0N 128.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.2N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 21.1N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 142031
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.0W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.0W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.3N 120.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.8N 122.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.1N 126.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 128.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.2N 132.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 21.1N 136.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 117.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 142031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...POWERFUL LINDA STILL WITH 130 MPH WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 117.0W
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 117.0 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward
the west is anticipated tonight, followed by a turn toward the
west-southwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Linda is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
through this evening. However, a steady weakening trend is forecast
to commence by early Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern and western coast
of Baja California Sur over the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 141434
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Linda is maintaining a well-defined 15-n mi wide eye, and a quite
symmetric surrounding convective cloud pattern. Taking a blend of
the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates gives a current
intensity estimate of about 115 kt, i.e. category 4 strength.

Linda may undergo an eyewall replacement later today, which is
typical for intense hurricanes, and this could cause some
short-term fluctuations in intensity. The hurricane is currently
in a low-vertical shear environment, and the dynamical guidance
indicates that the shear will remain low for the next few days.
However, SSTs beneath Linda should gradually lower along with
decreasing environmental mid-level humidities during the next
several days. Thus a slow weakening trend should commence by
tonight. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the
corrected and simple model consensus predictions.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
290/11 kt. There is little change to the expected steering
scenario. Linda is moving along the southern side of a pronounced
subtropical ridge. The ridge is predicted by the global models to
build westward to the northwest of the hurricane during the next
couple of days. This should cause Linda to turn toward the
west-southwest within the next day or two. Late in the forecast
period, as the ridge weakens, the cyclone is forecast to turn
westward. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous
one and in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.8N 116.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 117.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 19.2N 119.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.0N 121.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 18.5N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 18.0N 125.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 17.9N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 20.5N 136.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 141433
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 116.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 116.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 117.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N 119.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 121.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 123.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 125.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.9N 127.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 116.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 141433
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...LINDA AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 116.1W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 116.1 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward
the west is anticipated tonight, followed by a turn toward the
west-southwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Linda is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible through the afternoon, however, a steady
weakening trend is forecast to commence by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern and western coast
of Baja California Sur over the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 141000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 114.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 114.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.0N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.3N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.2N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.9N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.0N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.3N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.9N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
141000Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 115.0W.
14AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 883 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 140849
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Earlier conventional satellite imagery and a F-17/SSMIS microwave
image revealed some deterioration of Linda's eyewall in the
northwest quadrant, and some cooling of the eye. However, the
latest few BD-curve enhanced infrared images show a quickly
developing solid black ring of -69 to -73C temperatures associated
with Linda's eye wall. Based on these recent convective trends and
a special Dvorak satellite intensity classification from TAFB, the
initial intensity is raised to 110 kt.

Little change in strength is expected today, other than some
possible slight fluctuations. By early Sunday, the hurricane
should be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into a more stable and drier (700-500 mb relative humidity of
about 53 percent) thermodynamic surrounding environment. These
inhibiting conditions are expected to induce a steady weakening
trend through day 3. Beyond that period, Linda should weaken more
rapidly as it moves over even cooler (sub 24C) oceanic temperatures.
The official intensity forecast is merely an update of the previous
advisory, and is in best agreement with the various multi-model
intensity consensus guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11
kt. The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged. Linda is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward to westward during
the next couple of days along the southern periphery of a
subtropical ridge to the north. Afterward, the deterministic
models unanimously show the aforementioned ridge establishing
farther west over the eastern Pacific and to the northwest of the
cyclone. As a result of this altering synoptic steering pattern,
Linda is forecast to turn west-southwestward by early next week.
The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCN and HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach aids and splits the difference between the GFS
and ECMWF solutions beyond day 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 18.4N 114.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 19.0N 116.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 19.3N 118.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 19.2N 120.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.9N 122.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 18.3N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 18.0N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 18.3N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 19.9N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 140845
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0900 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.0N 116.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.3N 118.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.2N 120.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.9N 122.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.3N 124.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 126.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 130.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 134.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 140845
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 AM MDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...STRENGTHENING LINDA'S EYEWALL MOVING OVER CLARION ISLAND...
...HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS REPORTED...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 114.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 114.8 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) A turn toward the
west is anticipated by early Sunday morning, followed by a turn
toward the west-southwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts. Linda is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible through the afternoon, however, a steady
weakening trend is forecast to commence by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A wind gust to 106 mph (170 km/h) was recently measured
by a Mexican Navy weather observation site on Clarion Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern and western coast
of Baja California Sur over the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 140400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 113.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 113.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.5N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.1N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.2N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.9N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.5N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.1N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.1N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.5N 134.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140400Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 114.1W.
14AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
923 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 140303
TCDEP2

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
900 PM MDT FRI AUG 13 2021

Enhanced BD-curve infrared satellite imagery shows that Linda's
inner core has become much better organized during the past few
hours. The eye temperature has warmed to about 13c and the eyewall
temperatures have cooled to -66 to -69c, and in fact, this thick
black ring is a little more than 80 percent closed. Based on these
inner cloud pattern improvements, the initial intensity for this
advisory is adjusted up to 105 kt.

Linda still has a chance through early saturday to strengthen some
more, and this is indicated in the forecast. By Saturday night,
Linda is expected to move over decreasing oceanic temperatures
(25-26c) and enter a more stable and drier thermodynamic
surrounding environment. These inhibiting contributions should
induce a steady weakening trend through day 3. For the remaining
portion of the forecast, the cyclone should weaken a little more
rapidly as it moves over even cooler (sub 24c) sea surface
temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of
the NOAA HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, and is just below the
decay SHIPS model.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11
kt. Linda is forecast to move in a west-northwestward to westward
motion during the next couple of days. Afterward, the large-scale
models show a mid-tropospheric high pressure anchored over the
southwestern united states building westward over the eastern
pacific and to the northwest of the cyclone. In response to the
changing synoptic steering pattern, Linda is expected to turn
west-southwestward by early next week. The official track forecast
has not changed much at all, and closely follows the better
performing TVCN multi-model consensus.

Slight adjustments were made to Linda's wind radii based on earlier
METOP-A and B scatterometer overpasses.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 17.9N 113.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 18.5N 115.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.1N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 18.5N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 18.1N 125.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 18.1N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 19.5N 134.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 140245
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.9W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.9W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.5N 115.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 117.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.9N 121.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 123.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.1N 125.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 129.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 134.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 140246
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...LINDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 113.9W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 113.9 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west is anticipated by early Sunday morning, followed by a turn
toward the west-southwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 120 mph (195 km/h) with
higher gusts. Linda is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional
intensification is expected through early Saturday morning, but a
gradual weakening trend is forecast to commence by Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern and western coast
of Baja California Sur over the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 112.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 112.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.2N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.9N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.2N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.1N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.7N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.2N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.9N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.0N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132200Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 113.1W.
13AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
966 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 132046
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Linda has become an impressive looking hurricane this afternoon. The
eye that first became evident on geostationary satellite imagery
this morning has continued to clear out and warm while the
surrounding cold convection associated with the eyewall wraps around
the eye. The convective structure on microwave imagery has also
improved, with a distinct eye and closed eyewall apparent in an
earlier 1417 UTC SSMIS pass. The 1800 UTC subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates were in unanimous agreement with T5.5/102 kt
provided by SAB, TAFB, and ADT sources. Therefore, the initial
intensity has been increased to 100 kt this advisory, making Linda a
major hurricane.

Linda continues to move steadily to the west-northwest, at 300/12
kt. The track philosophy has not changed much over the past 24
hours. A mid- to upper-level ridge currently centered over the
southwestern United States is expected to expand westward, building
in to the northwest of the hurricane. This evolution should result
in Lisa's motion bending left, first to the west, and then to the
west-southwest over the next 2-3 days. The track guidance remains
tightly clustered near and just slightly poleward of the previous
forecast track. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged just
slightly northward over the first few days, but is nearly on top of
the previous forecast by the end of the period.

Linda has rapidly intensified, with a 35-kt increase over the past
24 hours, and the hurricane still has an opportunity to intensify a
bit more over the next 12 hours. After 24 hours, Linda will begin to
cross over gradually decreasing sea-surface temperatures and into a
and drier mid-level environment. These factors should lead to
gradual weakening. One fly in the ointment is that the shear
diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is expected to remain low and easterly
while sea-surface temperatures remain between 26-27 C through 60
hours. Both the ECMWF and HWRF simulated brightness temperatures
during that time suggest that Linda could develop a stable annular
structure, which often results in a slower than expected weakening
rate. For this reason, the latest intensity forecast only shows
gradual weakening through 60 hours, which is a bit above the HCCA
consensus aid. More rapid weakening is likely at the end of the
forecast period when Linda will move over sub 25 C water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.5N 112.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.2N 114.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 18.9N 116.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 19.2N 119.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 19.1N 121.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 18.7N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 18.2N 125.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 17.9N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 19.0N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 132045
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.9W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.9W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.2N 114.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.9N 116.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.2N 119.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.1N 121.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.7N 123.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.2N 125.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 129.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 112.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BRENNAN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 132046
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...LINDA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 112.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 112.9 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west is anticipated by late Saturday with this motion continuing
through the weekend. A west-southwest motion is expected by early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 115 mph (185 km/h) with
higher gusts, making Linda a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is expected
through tonight, but a gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin
by the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern and western coast
of Baja California Sur over the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brennan


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131618

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 48.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2021 0 15.1N 48.7W 1014 24
0000UTC 14.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 78.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2021 0 22.2N 78.2W 1014 24
0000UTC 14.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 111.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2021 0 16.4N 111.3W 975 60
0000UTC 14.08.2021 12 17.7N 113.4W 970 69
1200UTC 14.08.2021 24 18.6N 115.8W 971 68
0000UTC 15.08.2021 36 19.2N 118.2W 970 66
1200UTC 15.08.2021 48 19.4N 120.5W 976 62
0000UTC 16.08.2021 60 19.5N 122.8W 980 60
1200UTC 16.08.2021 72 19.1N 124.9W 986 52
0000UTC 17.08.2021 84 18.9N 126.8W 990 49
1200UTC 17.08.2021 96 18.9N 129.0W 990 50
0000UTC 18.08.2021 108 19.0N 131.5W 991 49
1200UTC 18.08.2021 120 19.1N 134.4W 993 48
0000UTC 19.08.2021 132 19.5N 137.4W 995 48
1200UTC 19.08.2021 144 20.2N 140.6W 998 45

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 25.1N 86.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2021 60 25.6N 86.5W 1008 29
1200UTC 16.08.2021 72 26.7N 87.0W 1007 30
0000UTC 17.08.2021 84 27.7N 86.9W 1005 27
1200UTC 17.08.2021 96 28.9N 86.7W 1005 30
0000UTC 18.08.2021 108 30.1N 86.2W 1006 27
1200UTC 18.08.2021 120 32.2N 86.3W 1012 22
0000UTC 19.08.2021 132 34.0N 85.8W 1012 16
1200UTC 19.08.2021 144 36.8N 83.7W 1013 15


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131617

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 131617

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 48.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.08.2021 15.1N 48.7W WEAK
00UTC 14.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 78.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.08.2021 22.2N 78.2W WEAK
00UTC 14.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 111.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.08.2021 16.4N 111.3W STRONG
00UTC 14.08.2021 17.7N 113.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.08.2021 18.6N 115.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2021 19.2N 118.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2021 19.4N 120.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.08.2021 19.5N 122.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2021 19.1N 124.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2021 18.9N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2021 18.9N 129.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 19.0N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 19.1N 134.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2021 19.5N 137.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 20.2N 140.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 25.1N 86.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2021 25.6N 86.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.08.2021 26.7N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2021 27.7N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2021 28.9N 86.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 30.1N 86.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 32.2N 86.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2021 34.0N 85.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 36.8N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131617

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 131600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 111.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 111.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.6N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.4N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.8N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.8N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.6N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.2N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.5N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131600Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 112.0W.
13AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 131444
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Linda's structure has continued to improve since early this morning.
An eye was evident in longwave and shortwave IR imagery from GOES-17
and GOES-15 near 1200 UTC, though it has since become obscured by
cold cloud tops associated with eyewall convection. An earlier AMSR
overpass showed evidence of a ring of shallow to moderate
convection, often associated with rapidly intensifying cyclones.
Intensity estimates at 1200 UTC ranged from 77 kt to 97 kt, so the
initial intensity was set at 90 kt, in closest agreement with the
U-W CIMSS SATCON. It is worth noting that Linda's intensity is in a
range where estimates can range greatly, so confidence in that
assessment is not particularly high.

Computational problems with the GFS this morning has limited the
guidance available for the forecast, particularly with respect to
the intensity. Therefore, despite the higher initial intensity and
recent improvement in convective structure, the official intensity
forecast was only modestly increased in the short term. It does not
appear that wind shear will be a major inhibiting factor during the
next day or two. Environmental moisture and SSTs should also be
sufficient for further strengthening. The NHC forecast is a little
above the model consensus and previous forecast for the next
24-36 h. After that time, Linda should move over cooler SSTs which
should cause at least gradual weakening. By the end of the 5-day
period, the NHC forecast is in line with the consensus and identical
to the previous advisory.

Only small tweaks were made to the NHC track forecast. Linda
continues to move toward the west-northwest with an estimated
forward speed of 11 kt. The global models unanimously forecast that
a deep-layer ridge to the north of Linda will build over the
weekend, causing the hurricane to turn westward, and then
west-southwestward by early next week. Confidence in the track
forecast is quite high due to the agreement among the track models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 111.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 17.6N 113.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 18.4N 115.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.8N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 17.5N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 18.5N 132.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 131439
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...LINDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EYE PEEKING OUT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 111.8W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 111.8 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west is anticipated by late Saturday. The hurricane is then
forecast to continue generally westward through the end of the
weekend. A west-southwestward motion is expected early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or two and Linda could become a major hurricane later
today or this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern and western coast
of Baja California Sur over the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 131438
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.8W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 150SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.8W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 111.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.4N 115.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.8N 120.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 110.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 110.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.1N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.0N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.6N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.9N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.8N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.5N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.9N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.0N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131000Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 110.8W.
13AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1066 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 130842
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Over the past couple of hours, satellite images show the convection
becoming more symmetrical around warming cloud tops over Linda's
center, indicating a better-defined eye may be forming. The latest
Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 65 to 82 kt, and based on the
recent satellite trends, the higher end of these estimates are
favored for an initial intensity of 80 kt. A recent ASCAT overpass
was able to provide useful information regarding the cyclone's wind
radii, with winds of tropical storm force extending up to 150 n mi
to the south of its center.

Given the improving structure of the cyclone, Linda is expected to
strengthen quickly over the next day or so, while the system is
forecast to remain in an environment of decreasing vertical wind
shear and over warm waters. By 48 h, decreasing SSTs and
increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the
cyclone to begin weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
little changed from the previous one, and lies between the IVCN
consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.

Linda is moving toward the west-northwest at 11 kt along the
periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. This
ridge is forecast to build westward with time, and eventually build
to the northwest of the cyclone as well, forcing it to the west in
a couple of days and then perhaps west-southwest later in the
forecast period. The track guidance is in very good agreement on
this scenario and only slight adjustments were made to the previous
NHC track forecast. This prediction lies near the various
consensus model tracks.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 16.4N 110.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 112.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.0N 114.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 18.6N 116.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 18.9N 119.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 18.8N 121.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 18.5N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 17.9N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 18.0N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 130841
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0900 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.6W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 150SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.6W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.1N 112.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 150SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.0N 114.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.6N 116.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.9N 119.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.8N 121.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.5N 123.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 17.9N 127.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 18.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 110.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 130842
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...LINDA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 110.6W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 110.6 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn to the
west is expected by late this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Linda
could be near major hurricane strength by Saturday. Weakening is
forecast to begin by late this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern and western coast
of Baja California Sur over the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 130400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 109.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 109.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.6N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.6N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.5N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.9N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.0N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.9N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.3N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.1N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130400Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 109.8W.
13AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1115 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 130257
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Linda is starting to intensify more in earnest. This evening, the
Central Dense Overcast has expanded some, especially to the
northwest which had previously been more restricted by moderate
northerly shear. A warm spot has been intermittently appearing on
infrared satellite imagery, suggesting the development of a more
well-defined eye. A SSMIS 2348 UTC microwave pass also indicated a
closed mid-level eyewall had developed on the 91 GHz channel, though
the 37 GHz channel still suggested the low-level eyewall may still
be open to the west. Objective satellite estimates this evening
have been steadily increasing with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate
up to T4.6/80 kt and the most recent SATCON estimate up to 76 kt.
However, subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB were lower.
Given the improvement in Linda's structure this evening, the
intensity is raised to 75-kt for this advisory.

Linda continues to move to the west-northwest, with a slightly
faster forward motion at 300/11 kt. Linda should continue a general
west-northwest motion for the next several days as a mid-level ridge
remains parked over Mexico and the southwestern United States. After
48 hours, this ridge is forecast to build westward and become
reoriented west-southwest to east-northeast ahead of Linda. This
synoptic evolution should result in Linda turning to the west or
even west-southwest after 72 hours through the end of the forecast
period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous forecast for the first 48-72 hours, but has been shifted a
little further south thereafter. However, this forecast track is
still poleward of the GFS, ECMWF, and reliable HCCA consensus
guidance, and further southward adjustments may be needed in
subsequent forecasts.

Northerly vertical wind shear, which has slowed Linda's
intensification rate over the last day or so, appears to be slowly
subsiding, and the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance suggests this shear will
gradually decrease to under 10 kt by 48 hours. During this period,
Linda should remain in a moist environment and over 27-28 C
sea-surface temperatures. These factors favor strengthening, and the
improvement in Linda's inner-core structure argues for a faster rate
of intensification over the next 12-24 hours. The latest intensity
forecast was raised in the short-term, following the latest HCCA
guidance, and calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt in 36-48 hours. It
remains possible Linda could intensify a bit more than expected, as
the latest HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC regional hurricane models
still show a peak intensity as a major hurricane. After 48 hours,
Linda will be moving over sub 27 C sea-surface temperatures and into
a drier environment, which should result in gradual weakening
through the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.6N 111.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.6N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 18.5N 115.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 18.9N 118.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 18.9N 121.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 18.3N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 18.1N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 130251
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...LINDA INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 109.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.6 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday Night. A turn towards to west
or west-southwest is expected to begin on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Linda could be near major hurricane
intensity by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days and should
reach the southern and western coast of Baja California Sur on
Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 130249
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 109.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.6N 111.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.6N 113.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.5N 115.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.9N 118.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.9N 121.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.3N 125.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 129.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 108.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 108.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.0N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.0N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.9N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.7N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.0N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.5N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122200Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 108.9W.
12AUG21. HURRICANE 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1168 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 122035
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

There hasn't been much change to Linda's structure since this
morning. The hurricane's center is embedded within a small Central
Dense Overcast, and a dimple is evident in visible satellite images
where an eye would be likely to form. For the most part, satellite
intensity estimates have not changed from this morning, and a 1550
UTC ASCAT-A pass showed peak winds in the 55-60 kt range. Given
that instrument's typical undersampling, especially for a small
cyclone, the 65-kt initial intensity still seems appropriate.

Linda is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt, to the
south of a mid-tropospheric ridge located over northern Mexico.
This ridge, and a stronger mid-level high developing over the
western United States, are expected to continue driving Linda
toward the west-northwest for the next 2-3 days. By days 4 and 5,
another mid-level high is forecast to develop between Hawaii and
Alaska, and that feature is likely to block Linda's northward
progress, and possibly even cause a south-of-due-west motion by the
end of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast has
been nudged southward mainly on days 4 and 5. It should be noted
that this new forecast is not as far south as several of the track
models, and additional southward adjustments may be required in
subsequent forecasts.

Various shear analyses suggest that the northerly shear affecting
Linda may have decreased slightly, with the magnitude now on the
order of 10-15 kt. SHIPS diagnostics indicate that this level of
shear is likely to continue for another 24 hours or so, and then it
could decrease further and enable some gradual strengthening.
Models generally show Linda's intensity peaking and leveling off in
the 36-60 hour window. After 60 hours, Linda is expected to move
into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, highlighted by
colder sea surface temperatures and drier, more stable air, and
weakening is therefore shown on days 3-5. One important note is
that further southward shifts in the forecast track would keep
Linda over warmer waters and potentially slow the cyclone's
weakening trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 15.3N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.0N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 17.0N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 17.9N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 18.7N 116.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 19.0N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 18.6N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 18.5N 128.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 122034
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
2100 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.7W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.7W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.0N 110.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 112.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.9N 114.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.7N 116.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.0N 120.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.6N 124.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.5N 128.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 108.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 122034
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...LINDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 108.7W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 108.7 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Saturday night. A
turn toward the west is expected on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days and should
reach the southern and western coast of Baja California Sur on
Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 121600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 107.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 107.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.6N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.6N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.7N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.6N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.2N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.4N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.1N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.0N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121600Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 107.9W.
12AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1211
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122200Z, 130400Z, 131000Z AND 131600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 121450
TCDEP2

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Linda has been trying to form an eye in conventional satellite
imagery during the past few hours, but that feature has been
obscured by the development of new convective bursts near the
center. An AMSR2 microwave pass from 0850 UTC indicated that the
structure remains well organized, if not a little tilted with
height due to shear, and a ragged mid-level eye feature was noted.
Objective intensity estimates are at hurricane strength--T4.4/75 kt
from the UW-CIMSS ADT and 66 kt from SATCON--but subjective CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB remain at 3.5/55 kt. Given the continued
attempts at eye formation, I have elected to lean on the side of the
objective numbers and increase the initial intensity to 65 kt,
making Linda a hurricane.

The AMSR2 pass revealed that Linda has been moving a little to the
right of the previous forecast track, and the initial motion is
estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. Mid-tropospheric
ridging located over northern Mexico should keep Linda on a
west-northwestward track for the next 2 to 3 days. After that
time, another ridge is forecast to slide westward from California
out over the Pacific, which should have a blocking influence on
Linda and cause it to turn back toward the west. In fact, by day 5,
most of the track models are showing a south-of-due-west motion.
On the whole, the guidance is showing a normal amount of spread, and
the NHC track forecast has only been shifted slightly eastward and
northward through day 3 to account for the adjustment of the initial
position. This solution is very close to the HCCA and TVCE
consensus aids.

Moderate northerly to north-northeasterly shear continues to affect
the cyclone, and the effect of this shear was seen in the slight
offset of the low- and mid-level centers in microwave imagery. The
shear is forecast to subside slightly during the next couple of
days while the hurricane moves over warm waters of 28-29 degrees
Celsius and within an environment of upper-level divergence. The
limiting effects of the shear are likely to support gradual
strengthening during the next couple of days, and the NHC intensity
forecast is within the relatively tightly packed guidance suite
during that time. During the 3-5 day period, shear is expected to
decrease substantially, but less conducive thermodynamic conditions
should cause Linda to gradually lose intensity, potentially
weakening to a tropical storm by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 14.8N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 15.6N 109.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.6N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.7N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.6N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.2N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 19.4N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 19.0N 127.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 121450
TCMEP2

HURRICANE LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 107.7W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 90SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 107.7W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.6N 109.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.6N 111.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.7N 113.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.6N 115.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.2N 117.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.4N 119.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.0N 127.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 107.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 121450
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Linda Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...LINDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 107.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Linda was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 107.7 West. Linda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue into the weekend. A turn toward the
west could occur by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days and should
reach the southern and western coast of Baja California Sur on
Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 121000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 106.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 106.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.6N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.7N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.7N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.7N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.5N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.0N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.0N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.0N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121000Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 107.2W.
12AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1263
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 120843
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Recent proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level
center of Linda lies near the northwestern extent of the dense
overcast, as its deep convection is being displaced southward by
moderate northerly wind shear. Although its center was briefly
partially exposed overnight, it appears that the center has recently
moved a bit farther underneath the cirrus canopy. A 0318 UTC ASCAT-A
pass shows several 50-kt wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant
of Linda. After accounting for some known undersampling issues of
the instrument at higher wind speeds, this supports maintaining the
initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory. This estimate is also
consistent with a blend of the subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates received from TAFB (55 kt) and SAB (65 kt).

After a brief west-southwest turn yesterday, Linda is now moving
slowly west-northwestward at around 285/5 kt. This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days
as Linda moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward as
the steering ridge strengthens to its north. Overall, the guidance
is in good agreement on the track of Linda. The official NHC track
forecast is shifted a bit north of the previous one, which brings it
closer to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. The cyclone is expected
to pass near or south of Clarion Island on Friday night.

The northerly wind shear that has plagued Linda for the past couple
days is forecast to persist for another 24 h, then diminish slightly
by this weekend. Otherwise, Linda will remain over very warm SSTs in
a moist, unstable environment for the next couple days or so, which
should favor at least some modest strengthening. However, the latest
intensity guidance consensus is somewhat weaker than the previous
cycle. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
slightly downward, and it now lies near or between the normally
reliable IVCN and HCCA aids. The forecast still shows Linda briefly
peaking as an 85-kt hurricane in 60 h, in deference to the stronger
HWRF and HMON solutions. Thereafter, gradually cooler SSTs and drier
mid-tropospheric air along its track should induce a weakening trend
through the rest of the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.1N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.6N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 16.7N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 19.0N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 120839
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 107.1W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 90SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 107.1W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.6N 108.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.7N 112.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.0N 122.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 120839
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...LINDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 107.1W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 107.1 West. Linda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the
weekend.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening
is forecast during the next couple of days or so, and Linda is
expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 106.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 106.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.1N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.0N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.0N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.0N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.9N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.5N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.9N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.9N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120400Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 106.9W.
12AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1287
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 120256
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021

While deep convection continues to pulse near and just south of the
estimated center of Linda, recent satellite imagery suggests the
center is now along the northwestern edge of the cirrus canopy. A
series of microwave passes, first from AMSR-2 at 2036 UTC and then
SSMIS at 2340 UTC indicated that the mid-level eye that was observed
earlier today has become poorly defined. This degradation in
structure could be attributed to dry air being imported into the
inner core of Linda by persistent 15-20 kt of northerly vertical
wind shear. The current intensity this advisory is held at 60 kt,
taking a blend of the latest subjective intensity estimates from
TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T4.0/65 kt), though this might be
somewhat generous given that the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate
is down to T3.1/47 kt.

Linda appears to be back on a due west heading, though a bit slower
at 270/6 kt. Linda is reaching the western extent of a large
deep-layer ridge located poleward over the western United States,
which is also forecast to become eroded by a mid-tropospheric trough
located just offshore California. Thus, Linda is forecast to start
gaining latitude tomorrow, remaining on a track to the
west-northwest for the next 2-3 days. The track guidance remains in
good agreement on this forecast evolution, and the latest NHC track
forecast lies close to the HCCA consensus aid. This track forecast
roughly splits the difference between the further south and west
ECMWF and north and east GFS forecast, and is just slightly further
north compared to the previous track forecast.

After intensifying today despite continued moderate northerly
vertical wind shear, Linda appears to be taking a pause as dry air
has been entrained into its inner core, disrupting its convective
structure. Over the next 24-36 hours, this shear is expected to
slowly decrease as diagnosed by the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance, and should
provide an opportunity for Linda to intensify, especially as the
storm remains in a moist environment and over sea-surface
temperatures above 28 C. However, given the current structure, only
slow intensification is now anticipated over the next 24 hours.
Linda is forecast to peak around 85 kt between 48-72 hours, though
it remains possible the storm could become stronger as suggested in
the latest HWRF and HMON forecasts. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is slightly under the HCCA consensus aid over the first 24
hours, but is now near the peak intensity of this guidance aid.
After 72 hours, gradual weakening is anticipated as Linda begins to
move over cooler ocean waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 13.6N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.0N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.0N 111.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 17.0N 113.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 17.9N 115.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 18.5N 118.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 18.9N 122.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 18.9N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 120252
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...LINDA TAKING A PAUSE ON INTENSIFICATION...
...STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 106.5W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 106.5 West. Linda is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn towards the
west-northwest is expected on Thursday, with that motion continuing
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is still forecast, and Linda is
expected to become a hurricane tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 120250
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 106.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 106.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 106.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 109.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.0N 111.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.0N 113.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 115.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 118.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 18.9N 122.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 125.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 105.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 105.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.8N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.5N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.4N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.4N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.1N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.7N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.9N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112200Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 106.3W.
11AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1300
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 112041
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021

After the issuance of the previous advisory, Linda showed hints of
an eye in visible and infrared satellite imagery. That feature
is no longer apparent, and it appears that some dry air has
infiltrated into the circulation. That being said, earlier
microwave data indicated that the storm has a robust structure, and
new convection is developing near the center. The latest Dvorak
T-numbers are T3.5 from TAFB and T4.0 from SAB, and as a result,
the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt.

Linda has been losing latitude for the past 12-18 hours, and the
initial motion is south of due west, or 260/8 kt. The mid-level
ridge that is steering Linda extends over northern Mexico, reaching
as far as the Baja California peninsula. With Linda approaching
the western edge of the ridge, it should begin to gain latitude
again soon and turn toward the west-northwest by 24 hours. General
ridging should remain in control through the 5-day forecast period,
maintaining Linda on a west-northwestward or westward track with
minimal changes in speed. There were no noteworthy changes to the
guidance on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast is very
close to the HCCA consensus aid and not too different from the
previous forecast.

As mentioned earlier today, the environment ahead of Linda consists
of a mix of positives and negatives for intensification.
North-northeasterly shear of 15-20 kt is not expected to decrease
much in the coming days, which could allow some dry air to continue
penetrating into the circulation. On the other hand, Linda's track
will keep it over warm 28 degree Celsius waters for several days,
and strong upper-level divergence should support deep convective
development for another couple of days. Therefore, steady
strengthening is shown in the official forecast, which indicates a
slightly higher peak intensity compared to this morning's forecast.
An important note is that several dynamical and statistical models
are showing the intensity peaking near or at major hurricane
intensity in 2 to 3 days. However, given the presence of the shear,
I'd prefer to keep the forecast on the conservative side and only
nudge the forecast up for now. Future upward adjustments may
be required if Linda strengthens more in the short term than what is
shown in the official forecast. Weakening should occur by days 4
and 5 due to Linda moving over cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 106.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 13.8N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 14.5N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 15.4N 110.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 16.4N 112.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 17.4N 115.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 18.1N 117.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 18.7N 120.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 18.9N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 112039
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...LINDA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 106.2W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 106.2 West. Linda is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected on Thursday, with that motion continuing
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Linda
is expected to become a hurricane tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 112036
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 106.2W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 106.2W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 13.8N 107.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.4N 110.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.4N 112.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.4N 115.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.1N 117.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.7N 120.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.9N 124.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 106.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 102.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 102.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.8N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.0N 105.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.3N 106.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.0N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.9N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.8N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.3N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.0N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 102.9W.
10AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1370 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 103.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 103.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.3N 104.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.5N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.1N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.1N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.2N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.0N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.3N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.7N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 103.6W.
11AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1343 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111000Z,
111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PNHC)FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 111000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 104.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 104.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.2N 105.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.6N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.3N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.3N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.3N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.1N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.2N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.5N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 104.5W.
11AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1321
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 105.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 105.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.8N 106.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.3N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.2N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.2N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.2N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.9N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.7N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.1N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 106.0W.
11AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1297
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KEVIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 111442
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Despite a continuation of moderate deep-layer shear, Linda is
becoming better organized. Upper-level outflow appears to be
expanding over the system, but even more notably, an 1109 UTC SSMIS
microwave pass revealed that a well-defined mid-level eye has
formed. Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T3.5 from both TAFB and
SAB, and given the significantly improved microwave structure,
Linda's initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

The latest fixes, including from the microwave pass, indicate that
Linda is moving a little faster and more south of due west, or
265/10 kt. This motion is being caused by a large mid-level ridge
located over Mexico, and the ridging is expected to maintain Linda
on a westward and then west-northwestward track for the next 5
days. There is very tight clustering among the track models for
the entire forecast period, and the updated NHC track forecast lies
very close to the HCCA consensus aid. This new forecast has been
shifted a bit to the left of the previous official forecast to
account for the updated initial position.

Linda will be moving through an environment of mixed favorability
for strengthening. On the positive side, sea surface temperatures
will hover around 28 degrees Celsius, mid-level moisture will
remain high, and upper-level divergence should be strong for the
next day or two. On the negative side, the deep-layer shear is not
expected to abate much for several days. That being said, the
system has still been able to strengthen, and the intensity models
support further intensification. The NHC intensity forecast
generally lies between the HCCA aid and the IVCN consensus, and
brings Linda to hurricane strength tonight with a peak intensity
occurring in 2-3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 13.8N 105.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 13.8N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 14.3N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 15.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 17.9N 116.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 111441
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.9W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.9W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 13.8N 106.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.2N 110.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.9N 116.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 111441
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...LINDA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 105.9 West. Linda is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Linda is likely to become a hurricane by
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 110849
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Satellite imagery suggests that Linda is still experiencing some
strong north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. The deep convection
and coldest infrared cloud tops have been displaced to the south of
the estimated low-level center for much of the overnight period,
although the position estimate is somewhat uncertain without any
recent scatterometer or microwave data. Additionally, the
upper-level outflow is sharply restricted on the upshear side of the
cyclone. Although no scatterometer passes hit the center of Linda,
ASCAT-C data across the western side of the cyclone showed at least
35 to 40-kt winds with a few marginal 45-kt vectors along the edge
of the swath. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this
advisory, in best agreement with a T3.0/45 kt subjective Dvorak
classification from TAFB.

Linda's estimated motion is just north of due west, or 275/8 kt.
This westward motion is expected to continue through tonight as the
cyclone is steered by a building ridge to its north. Then, the track
guidance agrees that Linda will turn west-northwestward on Thursday
and maintain this general heading through the weekend, keeping the
system well offshore of southwestern Mexico. The updated NHC track
forecast has been adjusted a little south of the previous one based
on the latest TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

The short-term intensity forecast is a bit tricky, since it is
uncertain how the persistent deep convection has changed the
structure of the cyclone. Although the moderate to strong shear is
expected to persist for the next couple of days, very warm SSTs and
a moist, unstable environment should allow for at least some
strengthening. Linda is still forecast to become a hurricane later
this week. The wind shear is expected to diminish on Friday and
Saturday, while the thermodynamic environment remains favorable for
some continued development. Thus, Linda could continue strengthening
into the weekend before it reaches cooler SSTs and begins a gradual
weakening trend near the end of the period. Overall, the NHC
intensity forecast is a bit weaker than the previous one and shows a
slightly slower intensification rate in the near-term, closer to the
IVCN consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.2N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.2N 105.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.6N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.3N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 16.3N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 18.1N 114.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 19.2N 118.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 19.5N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 110846
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0900 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.4W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 90SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.4W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.2N 105.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 106.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.3N 108.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 19.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 104.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 110847
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...LINDA MOVING WESTWARD...
...STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 104.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 104.4 West. Linda is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. Linda is forecast to move
west-northwestward on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Linda is
forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 110257
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Linda appears to be on an intensification trend this evening. The
low-level center, after being partially exposed to the north earlier
today, has recently become obscured by a large convective burst.
There is also some evidence of banding on the northwest side of the
center as well. The most recent 0000 UTC TAFB Dvorak estimate was
T3.0/45 kt and given the improvement in structure on satellite
imagery, the initial intensity was set to 45 kt for this advisory.

Linda appears to be starting a turn to the west, with the latest
motion now estimated at 285/8 kt. A more westward motion appears
likely in the short term as a deep-layer ridge builds in to the
north of the tropical storm. Afterwards, the guidance remains
tightly clustered on a resumption of a west-northwest track between
36-72 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the
previous one, except for a bit more westward motion in the
short-term. The overall track forecast remains in excellent
agreement with the track guidance consensus, and is roughly a blend
between the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and TVCE
consensus aids.

The moderate northerly shear that has been affecting Linda today
does not appear to be hindering the storm from intensifying
currently. In fact, the ongoing convective burst may help to better
align the low and mid-level centers, which could allow for a faster
rate of intensification in the short-term. For this reason, the
intensity forecast for the next 48 hours has been increased, with
Linda now forecast to peak as a 90 knot hurricane in 60 hours.
Thereafter, while vertical wind shear and mid-level moisture are
expected to remain favorable, sea-surface temperatures will begin to
gradually decrease. Linda will also be traversing the same location
that the large wind field of Kevin is currently over, and Kevin's
large 34-kt wind radii may also lower the sea-surface temperatures
along the path of Linda. The latest NHC intensity forecast is now
around the mean of the guidance envelope through the first 48 hours,
but still remains lower than the reliable HCCA guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 14.3N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.3N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 14.5N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 15.1N 107.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 16.1N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 17.2N 110.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.0N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 19.3N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 19.7N 120.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 110249
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...LINDA INTENSIFYING...
...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 103.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 103.5 West. Linda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to
the west at the current speed is expected over the next day or so
followed by a turn back to the west-northwest later this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the
next several days, and Linda is now forecast to become a hurricane
by late tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 110248
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.3N 104.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.1N 107.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.1N 108.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.2N 110.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 112.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 19.3N 116.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 120.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 103.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 102049
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

A recent ASCAT-B overpass revealed tropical-storm-force winds in
both the northern and southern semicircles of the cyclone, with
believable peak winds of 38 kt. Therefore, the depression has been
upgraded to a 40-kt tropical storm.

Moderate to strong northerly shear over Linda is keeping the bulk of
the deep convection confined to the southern portion of the
cyclone's circulation, resulting in a partially exposed low-level
center. This shear is forecast to persist over the storm for the
next day or so. Therefore, despite a moist, unstable environment
with ample oceanic heat content, only slow strengthening is expected
in the short term. If the shear decreases as anticipated, a
faster rate of intensification should occur for a couple of days.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the low end of the guidance
through 24-36 h due to the anticipated affects of the shear, and
then trends to near the various intensity consensus values
thereafter.

The estimated motion of Linda remains 295/9 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn westward tonight as a ridge builds to its north,
and then resume a west-northwestward motion by later this week as it
begins to move along the southwestern periphery of this ridge. This
track is roughly parallel to, but well offshore of, the southwestern
coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. Thereafter, the
depression is forecast to move away from the coast of Mexico. The
latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one,
and lies near the consensus track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 14.4N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 14.8N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 15.0N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 15.3N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 16.0N 108.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 16.9N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 17.8N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 19.3N 116.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 20.0N 120.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 102045
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Linda Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LINDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 102.8W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Linda was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 102.8 West. Linda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight
westward turn is forecast later tonight, followed by a turn back to
the west-northwest late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Linda are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 102044
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LINDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 102.8W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 102.8W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 102.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.8N 104.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.0N 105.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.3N 106.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.0N 108.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.9N 110.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.8N 112.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 19.3N 116.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 102.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 101439
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

The depression is slowly getting better organized, with deep
convection becoming a bit more concentrated. However, the system
appears to be undergoing moderate to strong northerly shear, which
is keeping this convection mainly confined to the southern portion
of the cyclone's circulation. The initial intensity is being held
at 30 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak T-number
from TAFB.

The estimated motion of the depression is 295/9 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn westward by Wednesday as a ridge builds to its
north, and then resume a west-northwestward motion by late this week
as it begins to move along the southwestern periphery of this ridge.
This track is roughly parallel to, but well offshore of, the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days.
Thereafter, the depression is forecast to move away from the coast
of Mexico. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the
previous one, and lies near the consensus guidance tracks.

The depression is within a moist, unstable environment with ample
oceanic heat content to fuel strengthening during the next few days.
However, ongoing northerly vertical wind shear will likely slow the
rate of intensification of this system over the next day or so. The
shear is forecast to diminish somewhat after 24 h, which should
allow for a faster rate of intensification for a couple of days.
Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to reach cooler
waters, which should begin to weaken the system. The official NHC
intensity forecast is near the IVCN consensus through 60 h, and is
then near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA thereafter. Based on
this forecast, the depression should become a tropical storm by
tonight and a hurricane on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 13.4N 101.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 14.0N 102.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 14.3N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 14.5N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 14.9N 107.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 15.8N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 18.4N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 19.2N 118.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 101438
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.5W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.5W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.0N 102.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.3N 104.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.5N 105.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.9N 107.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.8N 108.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 18.4N 114.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N 118.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 101.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 101438
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARALLELING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 101.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twelve-E was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 101.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
slight westward turn is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a turn
back to the west-northwest late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next several days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight and a
hurricane on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 100843
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 100.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 100.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 100.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.7N 102.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.3N 103.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.5N 105.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.7N 106.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.3N 107.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 18.2N 113.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 100.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 100843
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 100.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
slight westward turn is forecast on Wednesday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
expected during the next several days, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane on
Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 100843
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Over the past several hours, showers and thunderstorms have showed
increased signs of organization in association with an area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. An
ASCAT-B pass around 0330 UTC revealed that the low has developed a
well-defined center and is producing 25 to 30-kt winds, with some
higher wind vectors flagged as rain contaminated within the deep
convection occurring to the south and west of the center. The system
has become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical
depression, and its initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this
advisory.

The estimated motion of the depression is west-northwest, or
290/7 kt. The system is expected to generally move
west-northwestward to westward over the next several days, as it is
steered by a ridge to its north and northeast. This track is roughly
parallel to, but well offshore of, the southwestern coast of
Mexico. The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and the
official NHC forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope.

The depression is located in a moist, unstable environment with
ample oceanic heat content to fuel strengthening during the next few
days. However, moderate to strong northerly vertical wind shear will
likely prevent rapid intensification of this system in the short
term. Nonetheless, the intensity guidance unanimously supports
strengthening, and this system is likely to become a tropical storm
later today. Continued strengthening is forecast through the rest of
the week and into the weekend, and the cyclone could reach hurricane
strength by Thursday. The official NHC intensity forecast generally
follows the IVCN consensus aid and shows the system's intensity
peaking on days 4 and 5, when the wind shear is forecast to
diminish while the cyclone remains over warm SSTs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 13.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 13.7N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 14.3N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 14.5N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 14.7N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 15.3N 107.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 18.2N 113.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>