Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARTY-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 250402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.2N 71.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2021 0 9.2N 71.2W 1006 23
1200UTC 25.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 52.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2021 0 22.6N 52.7W 1013 24
1200UTC 25.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 96.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2021 0 12.1N 96.5W 1006 29
1200UTC 25.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 30.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2021 0 12.2N 30.6W 1009 21
1200UTC 25.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 119.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2021 0 20.3N 119.5W 1003 25
1200UTC 25.08.2021 12 20.5N 121.6W 1006 23
0000UTC 26.08.2021 24 20.3N 123.7W 1006 24
1200UTC 26.08.2021 36 20.3N 125.9W 1008 24
0000UTC 27.08.2021 48 19.5N 128.7W 1008 24
1200UTC 27.08.2021 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.5N 99.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2021 36 12.5N 99.9W 1003 27
0000UTC 27.08.2021 48 13.8N 102.7W 1000 32
1200UTC 27.08.2021 60 14.7N 106.1W 997 33
0000UTC 28.08.2021 72 15.0N 108.1W 993 41
1200UTC 28.08.2021 84 15.9N 109.0W 990 43
0000UTC 29.08.2021 96 16.7N 109.6W 988 45
1200UTC 29.08.2021 108 17.5N 109.6W 983 45
0000UTC 30.08.2021 120 18.8N 109.9W 979 48
1200UTC 30.08.2021 132 19.7N 110.6W 976 55
0000UTC 31.08.2021 144 20.8N 111.6W 973 53

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 9.3N 141.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2021 72 9.3N 141.7W 1006 22
1200UTC 28.08.2021 84 9.3N 142.5W 1007 24
0000UTC 29.08.2021 96 9.5N 143.1W 1006 28
1200UTC 29.08.2021 108 10.2N 144.3W 1008 28
0000UTC 30.08.2021 120 11.0N 145.3W 1008 22
1200UTC 30.08.2021 132 11.4N 146.5W 1009 22
0000UTC 31.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 17.7N 45.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2021 96 17.7N 45.0W 1011 25
1200UTC 29.08.2021 108 19.0N 45.0W 1011 26
0000UTC 30.08.2021 120 20.6N 44.6W 1011 26
1200UTC 30.08.2021 132 22.6N 43.6W 1011 24
0000UTC 31.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 32.1N 50.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2021 96 32.1N 50.2W 1009 25
1200UTC 29.08.2021 108 33.1N 47.5W 1005 33
0000UTC 30.08.2021 120 34.1N 43.9W 1002 36
1200UTC 30.08.2021 132 35.8N 39.8W 999 34
0000UTC 31.08.2021 144 38.1N 35.4W 998 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 22.4N 93.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.08.2021 120 23.7N 93.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 30.08.2021 132 25.0N 95.6W 1000 35
0000UTC 31.08.2021 144 26.3N 96.1W 994 39


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250402

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 250402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.2N 71.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.08.2021 9.2N 71.2W WEAK
12UTC 25.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 52.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.08.2021 22.6N 52.7W WEAK
12UTC 25.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 96.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.08.2021 12.1N 96.5W WEAK
12UTC 25.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 30.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.08.2021 12.2N 30.6W WEAK
12UTC 25.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 119.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.08.2021 20.3N 119.5W WEAK
12UTC 25.08.2021 20.5N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2021 20.3N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2021 20.3N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2021 19.5N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.5N 99.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2021 12.5N 99.9W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2021 13.8N 102.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2021 14.7N 106.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2021 15.0N 108.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2021 15.9N 109.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2021 16.7N 109.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2021 17.5N 109.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2021 18.8N 109.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2021 19.7N 110.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2021 20.8N 111.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 9.3N 141.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2021 9.3N 141.7W WEAK
12UTC 28.08.2021 9.3N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2021 9.5N 143.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2021 10.2N 144.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2021 11.0N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 11.4N 146.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 17.7N 45.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2021 17.7N 45.0W WEAK
12UTC 29.08.2021 19.0N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2021 20.6N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 22.6N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 32.1N 50.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2021 32.1N 50.2W WEAK
12UTC 29.08.2021 33.1N 47.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2021 34.1N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 35.8N 39.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2021 38.1N 35.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 22.4N 93.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.08.2021 23.7N 93.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 25.0N 95.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2021 26.3N 96.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250402

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 242200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 007A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 007A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 118.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 118.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.5N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.5N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.4N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.2N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.8N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
242200Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 119.3W. 24AUG21. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
13E (MARTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 6 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INCORRECT REFERENCE TO INVEST 95E
IN REMARKS.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 118.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 118.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.5N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.5N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.4N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.2N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.8N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242200Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 119.3W.
24AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (MARTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
736 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS
6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 242041
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021

There has been no significant deep convection within 100 nmi of
Marty's center for more than 12 hours. As a result, Marty has
degenerated into a remnant low. The initial intensity has been
maintained at 30 kt based on ASCAT-B/-A passes between 1700-1800
UTC that still showed a significant fetch of 25-kt winds over much
of the northern quadrant, including a few embedded 28-kt vectors.
Since Marty is forecast to remain over sub-26C sea-surface
temperatures and within a large field of cold-air stratocumulus
clouds, gradual spin down of the vortex and weakening of the
cyclone's peak winds are expected until dissipation occurs in about
72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA
intensity consensus models.

The initial motion estimate remains westward, or 270/10 kt. For
the next 36 hours or so, the remnant low is forecast to move
westward along the southern periphery of a sprawling deep-layer
ridge located northwest through northeast of Marty. Thereafter, a
motion toward the west-southwest is expected until the cyclone
dissipates. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an
extension of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle
of the tightly packed consensus models, which have shifted a little
to the south on this forecast cycle.

This is the last advisory being issued on Marty. For additional
information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI
and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 20.5N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 25/0600Z 20.5N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/1800Z 20.5N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 20.2N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 242040
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...MARTY DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 119.2W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty
was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 119.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19
km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the
west-southwest on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, and Marty is forecast to dissipate
on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Marty. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 242040
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.5N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.2N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 119.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON MARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 241600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 006
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 13E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 117.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 117.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.6N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.6N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.6N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.5N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.2N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.6N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
241600Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 118.3W.
24AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E (MARTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
726 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 241433
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Marty Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021

There has been no significant deep convection within 100 nmi of
Marty's center since about 0600 UTC. The cyclone's cloud pattern now
consists of some mid-level clouds and mostly low-level cold-air
stratocumulus clouds. The current intensity of 30 kt is based on a
unanimous Dvorak satellite classification of T1.5/2.5 (25 kt/35 kt)
from TAFB and SAB, which has resulted in Marty being downgraded to
a tropical depression. Due to the cyclone's future track remaining
over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures, coupled with additional
entrainment of stable low clouds, Marty is now forecast to
degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low later today. The new
NHC intensity forecast closely follows the trends of the intensity
consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA.

The initial motion remains westward, or 270/10 kt. The strong
deep-layer ridge to the north of the weakening shallow cyclone is
expected to keep Marty on a generally westward track over the next
36 hours or so, followed by a west-southwestward motion thereafter
until the cyclone dissipates. The new official forecast track lies
near the extreme southern edge of the model guidance envelope, owing
to the models' slight poleward bias noted over the past 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 20.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.6N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/1200Z 20.6N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 20.2N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z 19.6N 130.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 241432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Marty Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...MARTY WEAKENS SOME MORE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 118.1W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Marty
was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 118.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected, and
Marty is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 241432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021
1500 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 118.1W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 118.1W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.6N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.6N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.6N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 118.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 116.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 116.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.6N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.6N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.7N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.6N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.4N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.8N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.5N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
241000Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 117.2W.
24AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 727 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 240838
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Marty is currently a swirl of
low-level clouds with no associated convection, with this likely due
to a combination of northeasterly vertical shear and marginal sea
surface temperatures. Recent ASCAT data shows maximum winds of
30-35 kt over a small area in the northern semicircle, so the
initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.

The initial motion is still westward, but slower than before, at
270/11 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Marty will
continue to steer the cyclone generally westward over the next day
or two. After that, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn west-
southwestward during the latter part of the week within the
low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast track is similar to,
but a little slower than the previous forecast, and it lies near the
various consensus models.

Although the current shear is forecast to diminish, a combination of
decreasing sea surface temperatures and a dryer air mass along the
forecast track should cause continued gradual weakening. The new
intensity forecast shows the system weakening to a depression in
about 24 h and degenerating to a remnant low by 48 h. If convection
does not re-develop near the center, both of these events could
occur earlier than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 20.6N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 20.6N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 20.6N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 20.7N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 20.6N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 26/1800Z 20.4N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 240837
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021

...MARTY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 117.0W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 117.0 West. Marty is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward motion at
a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of
days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest on Thursday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are
now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual
weakening is expected, and Marty is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression by early Wednesday and degenerate to a remnant low by
Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 240837
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021
0900 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 117.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 117.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 116.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.6N 120.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.7N 122.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.6N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.4N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.5N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 117.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 240403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 6.5N 24.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2021 0 6.5N 24.6W 1010 18
1200UTC 24.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 42.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2021 0 19.5N 42.6W 1011 27
1200UTC 24.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 157.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2021 0 21.0N 157.5W 1012 27
1200UTC 24.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 41.5N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2021 0 41.5N 72.7W 1007 22
1200UTC 24.08.2021 12 42.0N 69.8W 1008 28
0000UTC 25.08.2021 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2021 0 20.8N 115.1W 1001 29
1200UTC 24.08.2021 12 20.6N 117.7W 1003 29
0000UTC 25.08.2021 24 20.6N 120.0W 1003 26
1200UTC 25.08.2021 36 20.9N 121.9W 1005 24
0000UTC 26.08.2021 48 20.8N 124.0W 1006 24
1200UTC 26.08.2021 60 20.8N 126.3W 1008 23
0000UTC 27.08.2021 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 11.9N 129.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2021 24 11.7N 128.7W 1006 29
1200UTC 25.08.2021 36 11.6N 126.8W 1006 24
0000UTC 26.08.2021 48 11.7N 125.2W 1006 23
1200UTC 26.08.2021 60 11.9N 124.0W 1007 21
0000UTC 27.08.2021 72 12.2N 123.1W 1006 20
1200UTC 27.08.2021 84 11.9N 122.4W 1006 20
0000UTC 28.08.2021 96 12.0N 121.6W 1006 22
1200UTC 28.08.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.0N 141.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2021 48 10.8N 141.4W 1007 21
1200UTC 26.08.2021 60 10.8N 141.5W 1007 22
0000UTC 27.08.2021 72 10.5N 142.2W 1007 22
1200UTC 27.08.2021 84 10.2N 142.9W 1007 22
0000UTC 28.08.2021 96 9.6N 143.7W 1006 20
1200UTC 28.08.2021 108 9.5N 144.8W 1007 22
0000UTC 29.08.2021 120 9.8N 146.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 29.08.2021 132 10.7N 147.2W 1009 24
0000UTC 30.08.2021 144 11.4N 148.6W 1009 21

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.3N 98.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2021 60 13.3N 99.4W 1003 33
0000UTC 27.08.2021 72 14.4N 102.5W 1001 31
1200UTC 27.08.2021 84 15.3N 105.9W 999 30
0000UTC 28.08.2021 96 15.6N 108.5W 997 35
1200UTC 28.08.2021 108 16.0N 109.9W 996 36
0000UTC 29.08.2021 120 16.2N 110.8W 994 34
1200UTC 29.08.2021 132 16.6N 111.1W 992 36
0000UTC 30.08.2021 144 17.6N 111.1W 990 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 30.0N 57.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2021 60 30.0N 57.9W 1015 22
0000UTC 27.08.2021 72 31.4N 57.7W 1013 24
1200UTC 27.08.2021 84 32.3N 56.5W 1009 31
0000UTC 28.08.2021 96 32.0N 55.0W 1005 31
1200UTC 28.08.2021 108 32.0N 53.2W 997 41
0000UTC 29.08.2021 120 32.5N 51.8W 988 53
1200UTC 29.08.2021 132 33.1N 49.9W 973 66
0000UTC 30.08.2021 144 33.9N 48.0W 957 74


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240402

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 240402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 6.5N 24.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2021 6.5N 24.6W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 42.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2021 19.5N 42.6W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 157.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2021 21.0N 157.5W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 41.5N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2021 41.5N 72.7W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2021 42.0N 69.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2021 20.8N 115.1W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2021 20.6N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2021 20.6N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2021 20.9N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2021 20.8N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2021 20.8N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 11.9N 129.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.08.2021 11.7N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2021 11.6N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2021 11.7N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2021 11.9N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2021 12.2N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2021 11.9N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2021 12.0N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.0N 141.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.08.2021 10.8N 141.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2021 10.8N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2021 10.5N 142.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2021 10.2N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2021 9.6N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2021 9.5N 144.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2021 9.8N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2021 10.7N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2021 11.4N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.3N 98.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2021 13.3N 99.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.08.2021 14.4N 102.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2021 15.3N 105.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2021 15.6N 108.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2021 16.0N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2021 16.2N 110.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2021 16.6N 111.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2021 17.6N 111.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 30.0N 57.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2021 30.0N 57.9W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2021 31.4N 57.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2021 32.3N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2021 32.0N 55.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2021 32.0N 53.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2021 32.5N 51.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2021 33.1N 49.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.08.2021 33.9N 48.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240402

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 115.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 115.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.7N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.7N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.7N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.7N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.5N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.1N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.7N 133.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 116.0W.
24AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
728 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THEPAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z,
242200Z AND 250400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 240236
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021

Northeasterly vertical wind shear continues to disrupt the
organization of Marty. The limited shower activity associated with
the cyclone remains displaced to the southwest of its exposed
low-level center. Despite its poor satellite appearance for much of
the day, earlier scatterometer data showed 35 to 40-kt winds in the
sheared cyclone. The latest objective satellite estimates and
subjective Dvorak classifications support an intensity of 35 kt.
However, the initial intensity for this advisory is conservatively
held at 40 kt, with hopes that new scatterometer data become
available overnight to better reassess Marty's intensity.

Marty is moving westward, or 270/15 kt. The subtropical ridge to the
north of Marty will continue to steer the cyclone generally westward
over the next couple days. Then, the weakening cyclone is forecast
to turn west-southwestward during the latter part of the week within
the low-level trade wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is
adjusted just a bit south of the previous one, near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus aids.

Despite the modest wind shear values diagnosed from the SHIPS
guidance, Marty is clearly struggling to maintain organized
convection. Furthermore, Marty only has a brief window over
sufficiently warm SSTs before it crosses the 26 deg C isotherm on
Tuesday and moves into a drier, more stable airmass. Therefore,
gradual weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday and continue
through the rest of the week. In fact, the latest global model
simulated satellite imagery suggests Marty could struggle to
generate any organized convection beyond tonight's convective
maximum period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially
unchanged. Marty is forecast to weaken to a depression by early
Wednesday, degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday night, and
dissipate late this week. But, it is possible these changes could
occur even sooner than forecast if Marty's convective structure does
not improve soon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 20.7N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 20.7N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 20.7N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 20.7N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 20.7N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z 20.1N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z 18.7N 133.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 240234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...MARTY MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 115.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 115.8 West. Marty is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward motion at
a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of
days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday, and Marty is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by early Wednesday and
degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 240234
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021
0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.8W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.8W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.7N 117.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.7N 119.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.7N 121.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.7N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.7N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 115.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 113.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 113.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.0N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.0N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.0N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.9N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.9N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.8N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.4N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
232200Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 114.3W.
23AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
741 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 232042
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021

Marty remains a sheared tropical cyclone due to northeasterly
vertical wind shear of about 10 kt as assessed by the GFS and ECMWF
models, which seems underdone given the pronounced erosion of the
deep convection since the previous advisory. Having said that, Marty
has still managed to strengthen a little to 40 kt, which is based on
a 1521Z ASCAT-A pass that contained one 39-kt surface wind vector
embedded within a large field of 35-37-kt wind vectors located over
most of the northwest quadrant of the cyclone's circulation.

The initial motion estimate remains a little north of due westward,
or 280/13 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous
track forecast or synoptic reasoning. A strong ridge to the north of
Marty is expected to remain dominant across the eastern Pacific
basin, which should act to keep the cyclone moving on a general
westward track for the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the ridge is
forecast by the global and regional models to build slightly
southward, which should force a weakening Marty in a
west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is similar
to but a little north, or right, of the previous advisory track, and
lies along the southern edge of tightly packed consensus track
models, which have once again shifted slightly northward.

Although global model diagnostics indicate that the northeasterly
shear has abated to about 10 kt, one would never guess that by
looking at the visible and infrared satellite trends over the past
few hours, which show a noticeable erosion of the overall convective
pattern. Although the convection should re-develop some overnight
during the convective maximum period, it is unlikely that Marty will
strengthen due to the entrainment of nearby low-level stable
stratocumulus clouds that will act to reduce the amount of available
instability. The latest model runs continue to forecast the
deep-layer shear to weaken a little more and remain low through the
remainder of the forecast period. However, Marty will be moving over
sub-26C SSTs and into a drier and more stable airmass by 24 hours,
and those unfavorable environmental conditions should work to offset
the favorable shear conditions, resulting in slow but steady
weakening in the 24-96-h period. Marty is forecast to become a
depression by Tuesday night or Wednesday, degenerate into a remnant
low by Thursday, and dissipate on Friday. The official intensity
forecast is essentially just an update of the previous NHC forecast,
and closely follows the simple- and corrected consensus models IVCN,
NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 20.9N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 21.0N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 21.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.0N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 20.9N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 26/0600Z 20.9N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z 20.8N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z 19.4N 131.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 232041
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...MARTY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
CLARION ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 114.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 114.1 West. Marty is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion at
a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days.

Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected this afternoon and tonight.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, and Marty is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Wednesday and
degenerate into a remnant low Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 232041
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021
2100 UTC MON AUG 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 114.1W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 40SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 114.1W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.0N 116.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 118.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.0N 120.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.9N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.9N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.8N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.4N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 114.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 111.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 111.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.6N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.6N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.5N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.4N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.3N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.2N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.3N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 112.6W.
23AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 793 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 231432
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021

Marty is now a sheared tropical cyclone owing to northeasterly
vertical wind shear of about 15 kt, which has displaced the bulk of
the deep convection, with cloud tops colder than -80C, into the
western semicircle. The low-level center is estimated be located
near the northeastern edge of the sharp convective cloud shield. The
initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a subjective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and an
objective estimate of T2.6/37 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion remains westward or 280/13 kt. A strong
deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of Marty is forecast by
the global and regional models to remain entrenched across the
eastern Pacific basin, keeping Marty moving in a general westward
direction for the next couple of days. On days 3 and 4, the ridge is
forecast build southward slightly, nudging the cyclone in a
west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is similar
to but slightly north, or right, of the previous advisory track, and
is also a little south of the tightly packed consensus track models
which have shifted northward on this cycle.

The moderate northeasterly shear currently affecting Marty is
forecast to gradually decrease to 10 kt or less and also become
easterly during the next 24-36 hours while the cyclone remains over
sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26 deg C or greater. These
favorable conditions should allow for at least slight strengthening
during that time. Although the shear is expected to remain low
through the remainder of the forecast period, Marty will be moving
over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier and more stable airmass. Those
unfavorable environmental conditions should combine to erode the
central deep convection and weaken the cyclone on days 3 and 4.
Marty is forecast to become a depression on Wednesday, degenerate
into a remnant low on Thursday, and dissipate on Friday. The
official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the
previous NHC forecast, and is about 5 kt above all of the available
intensity guidance through 60 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 20.5N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 20.6N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 20.6N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 20.5N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 20.4N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 20.3N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 231432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...MARTY PASSING TO THE NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 112.4W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 112.4 West. Marty is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion at
a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today or tonight. Gradual
weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, and Marty is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression by early Wednesday and degenerate
into a remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 231432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021
1500 UTC MON AUG 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.4W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 112.4W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.6N 114.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.6N 117.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 119.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.4N 121.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.3N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.2N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.3N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 112.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 110.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 110.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.3N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.4N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.2N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.1N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.0N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.8N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.0N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 111.3W.
23AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 230837
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021

Recent scatterometer wind data indicate that the circulation
associated with the low pressure area located a couple of hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become better defined. In addition, convective
activity has persisted and expanded over the western portion of the
circulation overnight, resulting in Dvorak T-numbers of 1.5 and 2.0
from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Both ASCAT-A and B instruments
revealed 30 to 35 kt winds over the western portion of the
circulation and based on these data, advisories are being initiated
on Tropical Storm Marty, the thirteenth named-storm of the 2021
eastern Pacific hurricane season.

Marty is moving westward at about 13 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric
ridge that extends from the south-central United States westward
across northern Mexico and the eastern Pacific is forecast to steer
Marty westward over the next couple of days. After that time, the
cyclone is forecast to weaken and become vertically shallow. This
should cause it to turn toward the west-southwest as it steered by
the low-level trade wind flow. The dynamical model guidance is in
excellent agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the
tightly clustered model envelope.

Although the tropical storm is currently located over warm waters,
it is within an area of moderate northeasterly shear. In addition,
it is likely to ingest drier and more stable air located to the
northwest of the system over the next couple of days. As a result,
only slight strengthening is indicated in the official forecast.
By 36 hours, Marty is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm and
gradual weakening is anticipated after that time. Less favorable
thermodynamic conditions should result in the system becoming a
remnant low in 60 to 72 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 20.0N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 20.3N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 20.4N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 20.2N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 20.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 20.0N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0600Z 19.8N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 230836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021

...TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...
...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 111.0W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 111.0 West. Marty is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion at
a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight
strengthening is possible today. Gradual weakening is forecast to
begin on Tuesday, and Marty is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 230835
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021
0900 UTC MON AUG 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 113.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.4N 116.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.2N 118.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.1N 120.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.0N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 111.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>