Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 300852
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Nora Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

Satellite analysts have been unable to identify a low-level center
associated with Nora, and scatterometer and synoptic data show no
surface circulation. Therefore the system has dissipated and this
is the last advisory on this system. However, the moisture field of
Nora's remnants will continue to move poleward over the next few
days and could contribute to rainfall enhancement over the
southwestern United States later this week.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain associated with Nora's remnants is expected across
the states of Sinaloa and Sonora. This rain will likely result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall from the
remnants of Nora is also likely to spread into the southwestern
U.S. and central Rockies beginning Wednesday, bringing the potential
for flash flooding to the region.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 25.3N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 300851
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Nora Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...NORA DISSIPATES BUT HEAVY RAINS AND MOISTURE FROM ITS REMNANTS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 108.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Nora were located near
latitude 25.3 North, longitude 108.1 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion should continue for the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is likely during the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the remnants of Nora can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches is possible along the coast of Sinaloa
associated with the remnants of Nora. This rainfall will produce
life threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

The remnant moisture from Nora will lift across Sonora Tuesday
through Thursday producing 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches. This may produce scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

Beginning Wednesday, moisture associated with the remnants of Nora
will bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash
flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by the remnants of Nora are affecting the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward into the
Gulf of California through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 300850
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 108.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 108.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 108.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 300532
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1200 AM MDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...NORA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 108.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nora
was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 25.0 North,
longitude 108.0 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near
12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue until
Nora dissipates inland later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Nora has become very disorganized, and is
forecast to dissipate inland later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico
from Nayarit to southern Sonora through late week as Nora lifts
northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This
rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is
possible in Baja California Sur and northern Sonora.

Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast
of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 300400 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORA) WARNING NR 018A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORA) WARNING NR 018A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 24.6N 107.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 107.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.4N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.3N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 27.0N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 108.0W.
30AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 689 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND
310400Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED LAST TWO POSITIONS TO
POST-TROPICAL.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 300241
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Nora appears to have moved inland, and it is unclear if it still has
a well-defined surface center. Earlier microwave data was
inconclusive regarding the existence of the low level center, while
the Dvorak analysts from TAFB and SAB were each unable to fix Nora's
center over water. The intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, assuming
weakening has occurred due to continued interaction with land.
Baring an unexpected redevelopment of the center over water, Nora
should continue to weaken inland, and could dissipate as soon as
early Monday. Quick dissipation is now supported by all of the
dynamical guidance. Accordingly, the NHC intensity forecast has
been adjusted much lower than in the previous advisory. Nora
is forecast to become post-tropical tomorrow and dissipate by
Tuesday. Based on recent trends, this forecast is probably generous.

Despite the uncertainty associated with Nora's position, the system
still appears to be moving generally north-northwestward, with an
initial motion of 330/10 kt. None of the dynamical guidance is able
to track a low-level center more than about 24 h. However,there is
good agreement that the mid-level remnants of Nora will continue
moving generally northwestward and could contribute to heavy rain
across northwest Mexico and portions of the southwestern U.S. during
the middle to latter portion of the week.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west
coast of Mexico from the states of Nayarit northward to southern
Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is
likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies
during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the
potential for flash flooding to the region


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 24.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 25.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/0000Z 26.3N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 31/1200Z 27.0N 109.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 300241
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...HEAVY RAIN FROM NORA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 107.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning south of Bahia Tempehuaya and all of the Tropical Storm
Watch.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bahia Tempehuaya to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected or occurring somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Sonora should monitor the
progress of Nora.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 24.8 North, longitude
107.9 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue until Nora
dissipates inland in a day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Nora is forecast to weaken inland during the
next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions
of the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico tonight.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico
from Nayarit to southern Sonora through late week as Nora lifts
northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches
with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is
possible in Baja California Sur and northern Sonora.

Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast
of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 300240
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING SOUTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA AND ALL OF THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NORA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 107.9W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 107.9W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.4N 108.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 26.3N 109.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 27.0N 109.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 107.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 292346
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
600 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...HEAVY RAINS WITH THE RISK OF FLOODING CONTINUES NEAR NORA
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 107.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Topolobampo to Huatabampito Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected or occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Sonora should monitor the
progress of Nora.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located along the coast of Mexico, near latitude 24.5 North,
longitude 107.7 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest
near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue through
early this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
At least gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico.
However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves
inland sooner than forecast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on
Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico
from Jalisco to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward
through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with
maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is
possible in Baja California Sur.

Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast
of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 292052
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations along the
west-central coast of Mexico suggest that the center of Nora has
re-formed closer to a mass of deep convection that has persisted
today over the southern Gulf of California. Various satellite data
sets indicate that Nora is weakening. The latest SSMIS microwave
data reveal that the structure of Nora has degraded since this
morning, especially in the mid-levels where an eyewall structure is
no longer evident. Additionally, a 15 UTC ASCAT-A pass shows the
winds are substantially weaker than previously estimated. Thus, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is somewhat uncertain given the earlier center
relocation, but it is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/10
kt. The global models suggest the tropical cyclone will move
generally northwestward over the next couple of days, between an
upper-level low offshore the Baja California peninsula and a
mid-level ridge to the east of Nora. This motion should keep the
center of Nora along the coast, or just inland over mainland
west-central or northwestern Mexico. The official NHC track forecast
is once again shifted a little to the right based on the latest
track guidance, which brings the cyclone further inland by Tuesday.

Nora is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days as the
system continues to interact with the coastline of Mexico. Despite
warm SSTs in the Gulf of California and weak environmental shear, it
appears unlikely that Nora will move far enough away from the coast
to take advantage of this favorable environment. In fact, it is
certainly plausible that the center of Nora could move well inland
earlier than forecast and weaken more rapidly. The NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted about 10 kt weaker at all forecast hours
based on today's data supporting a much weaker initial intensity.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength while
it moves near the coast of Sinaloa and southern Sonora through early
Tuesday, and tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for
portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor the progress of Nora.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast
of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora.
This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to
spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the
middle to latter portion of the week bringing the potential for
flash flooding to the region.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 24.3N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 30/0600Z 25.1N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 30/1800Z 25.8N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 31/0600Z 26.5N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 31/1800Z 27.2N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 01/0600Z 28.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1800Z 28.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 292051
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NORA TO CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 107.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch north of
Topolobampo to Huatabampito. The Tropical Storm Warning south of
Mazatlan to Escuinapa has been discontinued, and the Tropical Storm
Watch from Cabo San Lucas to La Paz has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Topolobampo to Huatabampito Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected or occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Sonora should monitor the
progress of Nora.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 107.5 West. Nora is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected to begin tonight and continue through early this week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple
of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico.
However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves
inland sooner than forecast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on
Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico
from Jalisco to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward
through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with
maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is
possible in Baja California Sur.

Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast
of Mexico and will spread northward into the Gulf of California
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 292050
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF
TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF
MAZATLAN TO ESCUINAPA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NORA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 107.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 107.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.1N 108.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.8N 108.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 109.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 27.2N 109.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 28.2N 110.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.9N 111.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 107.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 291753
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NORA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 107.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
south of Escuinapa and has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning from Escuinapa to Altata. The Hurricane Watch
from north of Altata to Topolobampo has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Escuinapa to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 107.3 West. Nora is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward
motion is expected to continue tonight through Tuesday. Nora is
forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of
Mexico early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right
of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate
within the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple
of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico.
However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves
inland sooner than forecast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on
Monday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and
Michoacan through Monday.

Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima
to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf
of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of
20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur.

Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California
Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 291603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.08.2021

HURRICANE IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 89.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2021 0 28.6N 89.6W 967 83
0000UTC 30.08.2021 12 29.7N 90.6W 959 69
1200UTC 30.08.2021 24 31.3N 91.1W 984 36
0000UTC 31.08.2021 36 32.8N 90.8W 984 34
1200UTC 31.08.2021 48 34.1N 89.1W 986 25
0000UTC 01.09.2021 60 35.8N 87.1W 990 25
1200UTC 01.09.2021 72 37.0N 84.4W 994 19
0000UTC 02.09.2021 84 38.8N 80.5W 996 31
1200UTC 02.09.2021 96 39.2N 77.5W 998 36
0000UTC 03.09.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 50.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2021 0 18.1N 50.1W 1010 27
0000UTC 30.08.2021 12 19.8N 50.6W 1010 22
1200UTC 30.08.2021 24 20.9N 51.3W 1009 24
0000UTC 31.08.2021 36 21.8N 51.0W 1010 21
1200UTC 31.08.2021 48 22.2N 50.9W 1010 23
0000UTC 01.09.2021 60 23.3N 51.3W 1012 25
1200UTC 01.09.2021 72 24.9N 52.9W 1013 26
0000UTC 02.09.2021 84 26.1N 54.6W 1015 24
1200UTC 02.09.2021 96 27.4N 56.5W 1016 25
0000UTC 03.09.2021 108 29.2N 57.9W 1017 23
1200UTC 03.09.2021 120 31.1N 59.5W 1017 26
0000UTC 04.09.2021 132 33.5N 59.8W 1017 26
1200UTC 04.09.2021 144 35.6N 59.5W 1014 30

TROPICAL STORM 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.6N 47.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2021 0 34.6N 47.6W 1006 32
0000UTC 30.08.2021 12 36.7N 44.1W 998 39
1200UTC 30.08.2021 24 39.5N 40.0W 992 42
0000UTC 31.08.2021 36 43.0N 36.5W 988 46
1200UTC 31.08.2021 48 48.1N 36.3W 989 49
0000UTC 01.09.2021 60 53.9N 40.4W 996 35
1200UTC 01.09.2021 72 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE NORA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 106.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2021 0 23.0N 106.3W 998 34
0000UTC 30.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.9N 20.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2021 48 10.9N 20.7W 1006 27
0000UTC 01.09.2021 60 11.4N 25.3W 1005 30
1200UTC 01.09.2021 72 11.6N 30.0W 999 39
0000UTC 02.09.2021 84 12.0N 34.0W 996 42
1200UTC 02.09.2021 96 12.6N 37.7W 991 49
0000UTC 03.09.2021 108 13.6N 41.3W 986 55
1200UTC 03.09.2021 120 14.7N 44.8W 983 61
0000UTC 04.09.2021 132 15.8N 48.0W 982 60
1200UTC 04.09.2021 144 17.1N 50.8W 984 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 37.3N 74.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2021 132 37.6N 74.8W 1003 39
1200UTC 04.09.2021 144 37.6N 76.0W 1006 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291603

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 291603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.08.2021

HURRICANE IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 89.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2021 28.6N 89.6W STRONG
00UTC 30.08.2021 29.7N 90.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2021 31.3N 91.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.08.2021 32.8N 90.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2021 34.1N 89.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2021 35.8N 87.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2021 37.0N 84.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2021 38.8N 80.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2021 39.2N 77.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 50.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2021 18.1N 50.1W WEAK
00UTC 30.08.2021 19.8N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 20.9N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2021 21.8N 51.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2021 22.2N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2021 23.3N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2021 24.9N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2021 26.1N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2021 27.4N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2021 29.2N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2021 31.1N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2021 33.5N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2021 35.6N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.6N 47.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2021 34.6N 47.6W WEAK
00UTC 30.08.2021 36.7N 44.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2021 39.5N 40.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2021 43.0N 36.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2021 48.1N 36.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2021 53.9N 40.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2021 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE NORA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 106.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2021 23.0N 106.3W MODERATE
00UTC 30.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.9N 20.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2021 10.9N 20.7W WEAK
00UTC 01.09.2021 11.4N 25.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2021 11.6N 30.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2021 12.0N 34.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2021 12.6N 37.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2021 13.6N 41.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2021 14.7N 44.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2021 15.8N 48.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2021 17.1N 50.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 37.3N 74.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2021 37.6N 74.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2021 37.6N 76.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291603

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 291445
TCDEP4

Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Nora has a healthy satellite appearance this morning. The deep
convection near and to the west of the estimated center is
maintaining a fairly large central dense overcast with very cold
infrared cloud tops. Recent ATMS and SSMIS microwave data indicate
Nora still has a pronounced mid-level eye structure, with the center
very near the coast of extreme southern Sinaloa. A blend of the
UW-CIMSS objective ADT estimate and 12 UTC subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB support holding the initial
intensity at 65 kt for this advisory.

The estimated initial motion of Nora is north-northwestward or 345/9
kt, although this is somewhat uncertain due to the lack of in-situ
observations. A mid-level ridge should continue to steer the
tropical cyclone generally north-northwestward to northwestward
during the next few days. This motion will bring the center over the
eastern Gulf of California and very near or over the coast of
west-central Mexico. The official NHC track forecast is adjusted
just slightly to the right of the previous one, in line with the
latest track guidance.

Nora's intensity forecast remains highly dependent on whether the
center moves inland over mainland Mexico or along the Gulf of
California, parallel to the west-central coast of Mexico. Given the
slight eastward track adjustment, the official NHC intensity
forecast shows gradual weakening over the next few days due to at
least intermittent land interaction as Nora skirts the coast. This
is consistent with the general intensity guidance consensus, which
no longer supports strengthening given Nora's proximity to land. Due
to the complex geography of western Mexico, even a slight eastward
deviation from the forecast track would result in more rapid
weakening as Nora moves further inland. Conversely, a more
northwestward motion over the warm Gulf of California waters could
allow Nora to remain a stronger tropical storm early this week. As
previously mentioned, confidence in the intensity forecast is lower
than normal.

Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while it
moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa today and into Monday,
and hurricane warnings or watches are in effect for portions of that
coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast
of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora.
This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to
spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the
middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for
flash flooding to the region.

3. Nora is forecast to move north-northwestward to northwestward
near or over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing
a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja
California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the
above-average uncertainty in the intensity forecast, confidence is
not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these
potential impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 23.3N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 23.8N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 30/1200Z 24.3N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 01/0000Z 26.5N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 01/1200Z 27.5N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/1200Z 29.5N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 291444
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NORA NEAR MAZATLAN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SINALOA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 106.4W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Altata Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 106.4 West. Nora is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower
northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to
move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico early
this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the
forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within
the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple of days as
the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. However,
rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland sooner
than forecast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane
Warning area through this evening. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
mainland Mexico beginning later today, and are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and
Michoacan through Monday.

Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima
to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf
of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of
20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur.

Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California
Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 291444
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 106.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 106.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 106.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.8N 106.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.3N 107.5W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 109.6W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 110.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 111.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 106.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 291137
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NORA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 106.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Altata Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 106.1 West. Nora is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower
northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to
move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico early
this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the
forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within
the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the day or two if
Nora's center stays over water. However, rapid weakening will
likely occur if the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane
Warning area today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico
beginning later today, and are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and
Michoacan through Monday.

Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima
to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf
of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of
20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur.

Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California
Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 290852
TCDEP4

Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

There have been no recent in-situ observations for estimating the
intensity of Nora, but the cyclone is still fairly well-organized on
satellite images. Taking a blend of T- and Current Intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB along with ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS
still supports keeping the system as a hurricane at this time.

Center fixes indicate that Nora is moving a little west of due
north at a decreased forward speed, or around 350/9 kt. The
tropical cyclone is expected to move north-northwestward to
northwestward during the next few days, on the southwestern side of
a mid-level ridge. This would take Nora over the eastern part of
the Gulf of California, but very near the coast of mainland Mexico
over the next few days. The track guidance has shifted somewhat to
the east, and now suggests that it is a very distinct possibility
that the system will move inland much sooner than shown by the
latest NHC track forecast.

The future intensity of Nora is of course highly dependent on how
soon the center moves inland. The official intensity forecast
assumes that the system will remain just offshore so that only slow
weakening will occur during the next 72 hours or so. This is in
good agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus guidance.
Alternatively, Nora may move inland sooner than indicated, in which
case the system would probably dissipate in 2 to 3 days or less.
Obviously, this intensity forecast is of low confidence.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while
it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through the
weekend and into Monday, and hurricane warnings or watches are in
effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates
to the forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast
of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora.
This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to
spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the
middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for
flash flooding to the region.

3. Nora is forecast to move north-northwestward to northwestward
over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk
of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California
Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average
uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough
to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 22.5N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 23.6N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 24.2N 107.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 24.7N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 25.2N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 290851
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NORA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 105.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
south of San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Altata Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Nora is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is likely today, followed by a slower northwestward
motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near
and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early this
week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast
track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next
day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the day or two
if Nora's center stays over water. However, rapid weakening will
likely occur if the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane
Warning area today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico,
and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja
California Sur on Monday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and
Michoacan through Monday.

Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima
to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf
of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of
20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur.

Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early
this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 290850
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
SOUTH OF SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 105.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 105.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.6N 106.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.7N 108.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.2N 108.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 110.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 105.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 290534
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NORA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 105.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Altata Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near the coast of Mexico at latitude 22.0 North, longitude 105.7
West. Nora is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
turn toward the north-northwest is likely today, followed by a
slower northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is
forecast to move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through
early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of
the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate
within the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the day or two
if Nora's center stays over water. However, rapid weakening will
likely occur if the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane
Warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and
are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja
California Sur on Monday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through early this week
along the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan
northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This
rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Toward the middle and latter part of this week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early
this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 290403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 50.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2021 0 32.8N 50.4W 1010 23
1200UTC 29.08.2021 12 34.4N 48.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 30.08.2021 24 36.6N 44.2W 1000 37
1200UTC 30.08.2021 36 38.5N 40.1W 994 41
0000UTC 31.08.2021 48 41.9N 36.3W 988 46
1200UTC 31.08.2021 60 45.9N 34.8W 991 47
0000UTC 01.09.2021 72 51.4N 37.2W 997 40
1200UTC 01.09.2021 84 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 87.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2021 0 26.5N 87.6W 975 59
1200UTC 29.08.2021 12 28.3N 89.6W 968 80
0000UTC 30.08.2021 24 29.4N 90.9W 949 75
1200UTC 30.08.2021 36 30.8N 91.5W 978 42
0000UTC 31.08.2021 48 32.2N 91.2W 982 34
1200UTC 31.08.2021 60 33.8N 89.8W 985 28
0000UTC 01.09.2021 72 35.5N 87.8W 989 23
1200UTC 01.09.2021 84 37.0N 85.5W 991 21
0000UTC 02.09.2021 96 37.5N 82.2W 994 31
1200UTC 02.09.2021 108 38.1N 79.0W 997 31
0000UTC 03.09.2021 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 49.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2021 0 16.1N 49.7W 1010 26
1200UTC 29.08.2021 12 18.0N 50.3W 1010 29
0000UTC 30.08.2021 24 19.5N 51.1W 1009 24
1200UTC 30.08.2021 36 20.6N 51.7W 1008 24
0000UTC 31.08.2021 48 21.2N 51.1W 1008 27
1200UTC 31.08.2021 60 22.5N 51.3W 1008 29
0000UTC 01.09.2021 72 23.3N 51.8W 1010 28
1200UTC 01.09.2021 84 24.9N 52.9W 1011 30
0000UTC 02.09.2021 96 26.2N 54.2W 1013 27
1200UTC 02.09.2021 108 27.7N 55.8W 1013 29
0000UTC 03.09.2021 120 29.0N 56.7W 1013 33
1200UTC 03.09.2021 132 30.8N 57.3W 1007 41
0000UTC 04.09.2021 144 33.1N 56.9W 1003 43

HURRICANE NORA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 105.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2021 0 20.6N 105.5W 993 38
1200UTC 29.08.2021 12 22.9N 105.9W 999 32
0000UTC 30.08.2021 24 27.2N 109.3W 1001 26
1200UTC 30.08.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.8N 148.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2021 0 10.8N 148.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 29.08.2021 12 12.1N 150.7W 1009 26
0000UTC 30.08.2021 24 13.0N 151.8W 1010 21
1200UTC 30.08.2021 36 13.4N 152.4W 1011 18
0000UTC 31.08.2021 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 8.5N 14.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2021 36 8.5N 14.0W 1004 31
0000UTC 31.08.2021 48 10.0N 16.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 31.08.2021 60 11.4N 20.4W 1006 30
0000UTC 01.09.2021 72 11.9N 25.1W 1006 27
1200UTC 01.09.2021 84 11.6N 30.0W 1004 33
0000UTC 02.09.2021 96 11.7N 34.0W 1001 36
1200UTC 02.09.2021 108 11.9N 37.9W 996 46
0000UTC 03.09.2021 120 12.8N 41.7W 992 49
1200UTC 03.09.2021 132 13.8N 45.4W 985 55
0000UTC 04.09.2021 144 15.2N 48.3W 979 61

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.5N 18.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2021 96 15.5N 18.0W 1008 27
1200UTC 02.09.2021 108 15.8N 19.9W 1008 26
0000UTC 03.09.2021 120 16.9N 21.8W 1010 22
1200UTC 03.09.2021 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 34.1N 72.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2021 144 34.1N 72.9W 1003 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290403

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 290403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 50.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2021 32.8N 50.4W WEAK
12UTC 29.08.2021 34.4N 48.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2021 36.6N 44.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2021 38.5N 40.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2021 41.9N 36.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2021 45.9N 34.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2021 51.4N 37.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2021 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 87.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2021 26.5N 87.6W STRONG
12UTC 29.08.2021 28.3N 89.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2021 29.4N 90.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.08.2021 30.8N 91.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.08.2021 32.2N 91.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2021 33.8N 89.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2021 35.5N 87.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2021 37.0N 85.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2021 37.5N 82.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2021 38.1N 79.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 49.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2021 16.1N 49.7W WEAK
12UTC 29.08.2021 18.0N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2021 19.5N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 20.6N 51.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2021 21.2N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2021 22.5N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2021 23.3N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2021 24.9N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2021 26.2N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2021 27.7N 55.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2021 29.0N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2021 30.8N 57.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2021 33.1N 56.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE NORA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 105.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2021 20.6N 105.5W MODERATE
12UTC 29.08.2021 22.9N 105.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2021 27.2N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.8N 148.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2021 10.8N 148.8W WEAK
12UTC 29.08.2021 12.1N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2021 13.0N 151.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 13.4N 152.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 8.5N 14.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2021 8.5N 14.0W WEAK
00UTC 31.08.2021 10.0N 16.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2021 11.4N 20.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2021 11.9N 25.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2021 11.6N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2021 11.7N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2021 11.9N 37.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2021 12.8N 41.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2021 13.8N 45.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2021 15.2N 48.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.5N 18.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2021 15.5N 18.0W WEAK
12UTC 02.09.2021 15.8N 19.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2021 16.9N 21.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 34.1N 72.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2021 34.1N 72.9W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290403

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 290259
TCDEP4

Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Surface data from Mexico, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft, and microwave imagery from an 2344 UTC SSMIS
indicate that the center of Nora moved over the far northwestern
coast of Jalisco earlier this evening. Since then, the cloud
pattern of the hurricane has degraded, but not enough to bring the
latest Dvorak estimates below hurricane strength. The advisory
intensity is therefore set at 65 kt based on the assumption that
interaction with land has caused weakening, however there is low
confidence in this assessment.

The ever-so-slight rightward deviation from the forecast track that
brought Nora inland, at least briefly, highlights the sensitivity of
the system's future to its exact track. A sizable portion of the
latest dynamical guidance, including the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models
indicate that Nora will move inland tonight or early Sunday and
dissipate. All three models also indicate it could reform over the
Gulf of California in a few days. Other models, like the UKMET and
CMC global models maintain Nora as a coherent tropical cyclone much
longer. While the models can easily flip flop from run to run, the
NHC forecast cannot drastically change solutions so cavalierly.
Therefore, the official forecast is based on the condition that Nora
will stay far enough offshore to persist as a tropical cyclone.
Regardless of its exact state, Nora is forecast to turn toward the
northwest on Sunday and then move along the coast toward northern
Mexico early next week. This general solution is supported by all of
the available guidance. A slight eastward adjustment has been made
to the NHC track forecast to account for the slightly east initial
position.

Given Nora's recent movement over land, the intensity forecast has
been lowered substantially at all forecast hours, but still
maintains Nora near hurricane strength for the next couple of days.
This is well above the most recent intensity consensus, which is
heavily influenced by the dynamical models that move Nora inland.
If it doesn't move inland sooner, Nora will likely quickly weaken
as it moves permanently inland by around 96 h, and become a remnant
low by the end of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while
it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through the
weekend, and hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of that
coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast
of Mexico from the states of Michoacan northward to southern Sonora,
including Baja California Sur. This rain will likely result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions.
Rainfall from Nora may spread into the southwestern U.S. and central
Rockies during the middle to latter portion of next week.

3. Nora is forecast to continue moving northward over the Gulf of
California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to
portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern
Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the
forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 21.3N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 22.8N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 23.7N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 24.4N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 26.8N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 28.6N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/0000Z 30.2N 110.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 290258
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...NORA CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COASTS OF JALISCO AND
NAYARIT...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SINALOA
OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 105.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from
east of Playa Perula to Manzanillo and has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from north of Altata to Topolobampo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Altata Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near the coast of Mexico at latitude 21.3 North, longitude 105.5
West. Nora is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest is likely tonight or on Sunday, followed
by a slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday. Nora
is forecast to move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through
early near week. However, even a small deviation to the right of
the forecast track could cause Nora to move farther inland and
dissipate.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
day or two if Nora's center stays over the waters of the Gulf of
California. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center
moves further inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the southern
hurricane warning area tonight and could spread northward through
the warning area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in
the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico and are possible
within the tropical storm watch area in Baja California Sur on
Monday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through early next week
along the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan
northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This
rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early
next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 290258
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FROM
EAST OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO ALTATA MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 105.5W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 180SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 105.5W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 106.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.7N 107.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.4N 107.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.9N 108.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.6N 109.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.8N 110.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.6N 110.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 105.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 282353
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...NORA'S CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 105.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Altata Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near the coast of Mexico at latitude 20.2 North, longitude 105.4
West. Surface data from Mexico and data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nora made landfall along the
northwest coast of Jalisco near Vincente Guerrero, and has continued
to move near the coast since then. Nora is moving toward the north
near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward north-northwest is possible
tonight and on Sunday, followed by a slower northwestward motion
Sunday night through Tuesday. On the current forecast track, the
center of Nora will continue to move near the coast of Mexico during
the next several hours. It could then re-emerge over the Gulf of
California, moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through
early next week. However, even a small deviation of the hurricane's
motion to the right could cause Nora to move further inland and
dissipate.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 80 mph (130 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next few days if Nora's center moves over the waters of the Gulf
of California. However, weakening would likely occur if the center
moves further inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of the
southern parts of the hurricane warning area and are likely to
spread northward within hurricane warning area through Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early
next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of
Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California
Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early
next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 282054
TCDEP4

Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Nora developed a cloud-filled eye during the past few hours, with
the center now grazing the coast and the eyewall moving across
western Jalisco, Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft has been investigating the hurricane, but unfortunately
the storm is now too close to the mountainous coastline for the
plane to safely locate the surface center or sample the
likely-stronger wind field on the eastern side of the circulation.
Based mainly on T4.5/77 kt Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the
initial intensity is estimated to be 75 kt.

The center has been moving a little faster to the west of due
north, or 350/12 kt. The track models are in agreement that Nora
should turn toward the north-northwest and northwest during the next
few days, generally keeping the center of the hurricane over the
waters of the Gulf of California. However, due to the complex
geography and mountainous topography of the region, the track
forecast is challenging, and it's almost impossible to know if
Nora's center will remain over water or graze the coastlines of
Nayarit and Sinaloa over the next few days. By days 4 and 5, Nora's
center is forecast to move inland over Sonora after traversing a
significant length of the Gulf of California.

Assuming a path that keeps Nora just offshore, low shear and very
warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of California should be
sufficient to at least maintain hurricane intensity for the next 3
days. However, any slight deviations of the track could cause Nora
to weaken and fall below hurricane intensity sooner than is
indicated in the official forecast. Given the uncertainties,
however, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane
warning farther north along the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa out
of an abundance of caution. Weakening will become more likely the
farther north Nora gets up the Gulf of California, both due to
possible land interaction and ingestion of drier air off the Mexican
plateau.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to be a hurricane while it moves near or
along the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco, Nayarit, and
Sinaloa through Monday, and hurricane warnings are in effect for
portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast
of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero, northward to southern
Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rain will likely
result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these
regions. Rainfall from Nora may spread into the southwestern U.S.
and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of next
week.

3. Nora is forecast to continue moving northward over the Gulf of
California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to
portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern
Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the
forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 19.7N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 29/0600Z 21.5N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.9N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 23.5N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 24.2N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 24.8N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 25.6N 109.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 27.6N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/1800Z 29.4N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 282053
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...NORA'S CENTER GRAZING THE COAST OF JALISCO MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NAYARIT AND
SINALOA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 105.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning
and Hurricane Watch north of San Blas to Altata, Mexico, to a
Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Altata Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
tonight or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected tonight and on Sunday, followed by a
slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nora will move near or over western
Jalisco during the next few hours, and then move over the Gulf
of California near or along the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa
tonight through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days if Nora's center remains over the waters of the Gulf of
California. However, weakening would likely occur if the center
moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). A sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently
reported at Chamela-Cuixmala, Jalisco.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the southern
portion of the hurricane warning area and are likely to spread
northward within hurricane warning area through Monday. Hurricane
conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area late
Monday. Tropical storm conditions will continue over the tropical
storm warning area through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area in Baja California
Sur on Monday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early
next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of
Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California
Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early
next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 282052
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND HURRICANE WATCH NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO ALTATA...MEXICO...TO A
HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO ALTATA MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.4W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.4W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 105.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.9N 106.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.5N 107.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 108.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.8N 108.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.6N 110.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 29.4N 110.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 105.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 281753
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...NORA STRENGTHENING WHILE AN EYE FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
JALISCO...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 105.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico
* North of San Blas to Altata Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
later today or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected to
continue through this evening, bringing Nora's center very close to
or over the western part of Jalisco, Mexico, during the next
several hours. A motion toward the north-northwest and northwest
at a slower forward speed is expected Sunday through Tuesday. On
the forecast track, Nora's center will approach the mouth of the
Gulf of California on Sunday and move over southern portions of the
Gulf on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
through tonight if Nora's center does not move inland over Mexico.
Some gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or
Monday, but Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) was recently
reported at Chamela-Cuixmala, Jalisco. A gust to 50 mph (80 km/h)
was also reported at Manzanillo, Colima.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Nora's eyewall is moving onshore the coast of southern
Jalisco and western Colima. Hurricane conditions are imminent
within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area and will
spread northward within warning area through tonight. Hurricane
conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area tonight
and may spread to the northern portions of the watch area Sunday and
Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over tropical
storm warning area south of Manzanillo and will spread to the
northern tropical storm warning area north of San Blas this evening
through Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early
next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of
Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California
Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and the central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where
the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of
the center if Nora makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 281450
TCDEP4

Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Nora continues to show signs of strengthening with the center
embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast, where clouds tops are
now as cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB
are T4.0/65 kt and T4.5/77 kt, and the most recent objective
numbers are near 75 kt. Nora's initial intensity is conservatively
estimated to be 70 kt, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft should help us verify the maximum winds later this
afternoon.

The latest fixes indicate that Nora is moving west of due north, or
350/10 kt. A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies has created
a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the southwestern U.S.,
which should allow Nora to continue moving northward or
north-northwestward through tonight. This motion will take Nora's
center and hurricane-force winds very close to or over portions of
Jalisco, Mexico, later today and this evening. On Sunday, the track
guidance suggests that Nora will make a turn back toward the
northwest, bringing the center over the Gulf of California by Monday
at a much slower forward speed. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, but the narrow width of the Gulf of
California means that hazards away from the center could affect both
the coast of mainland Mexico and the east coast of Baja California
Sur. Due to this uncertainty, new watches and warnings have been
extended northward along both coasts. The track guidance--and the
NHC official forecast--suggest that Nora's center could move inland
over Sonora, Mexico, in 4 to 5 days.

Assuming Nora's center remains over water, low shear and warm waters
should allow for additional strengthening during the next 24-36
hours. After that time, possible land interaction, influences of
nearby topography, and potential ingestion of dry air from the
Mexican plateau could all conspire to cause at least gradual
weakening while Nora begins to move into the Gulf of California.
That said, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity
prediction, and Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through
early Tuesday, a scenario supported by the ECMWF model. One thing
the models do agree on is that Nora's wind field should contract
after it passes Cabo Corrientes and heads into the Gulf of
California, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast strengthen through tonight as it moves near the
coasts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and
southern Sinaloa, and hurricane warnings are in effect for portions
of that coastline. Interests in these areas and points farther
north should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent
updates to the forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast
of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero, northward to southern
Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rain will likely
result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these
regions. Rainfall from Nora may spread into the southwestern U.S.
and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of next
week.

3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a
hurricane by Monday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of
the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora.
Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity,
confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and
location of these potential impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 18.4N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.1N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 23.1N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 23.8N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 24.5N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 25.2N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 29.3N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 281450
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...NORA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 105.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch northward
from Mazatlan to Topolobampo and has extended the Tropical Storm
Warning northward from Mazatlan to Altata. A Tropical Storm Watch
has also been issued for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to
La Paz.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch south
of Manzanillo and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south
of Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Topolobampo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico
* North of San Blas to Altata Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional
watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas
later today or on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue through this evening, bringing Nora's center very close
to or over the western part of Jalisco, Mexico. A motion toward
the north-northwest and northwest at a slower forward speed is
expected Sunday through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Nora's
center will approach the mouth of the Gulf of California on Sunday
and move over southern portions of the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
through tonight if Nora's center does not make landfall. Some
gradual weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night or Monday,
but Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area tonight and may spread to the northern portions of the
watch area Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are
likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm
warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning
area this evening through Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early
next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of
Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California
Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. and the central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where
the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of
the center if Nora makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 281449
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD
FROM MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING NORTHWARD FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO
LA PAZ.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF LAZARO CARDENAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 300SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 105.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.1N 107.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 108.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.3N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 281151
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...NORA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF JALISCO MEXICO LATER TODAY...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 105.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo northward to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Manzanillo Mexico to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere further along the northwestern coast of
mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of these areas today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through the weekend. A slight bend to the
northwest is forecast by early next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Nora is expected to approach the southwestern coast of
Mexico later today and pass very near the coast of the states of
Jalisco and Nayarit by tonight. Nora is then forecast to approach
and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated as long as Nora remains
offshore the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area later today and may spread to the northern portions of the
watch area tomorrow. Tropical storm conditions are likely
occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area
and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area later
today and tomorrow.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

As Nora continues north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into
the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a
result.

Additional heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches are possible across Sinaloa and Sonora during
the middle to latter part of next week as Nora moves northwest
through the Gulf of California.

Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where
the center passes the coast, or east of the center if Nora makes
landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 280900
TCDEP4

Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

The inner-core structure appears to be tightening up with Nora this
morning. Deep convection with tops colder than -70 C has been
blossoming and wrapping around the center, first around the eastern
side, but more recently in all quadrants as a distinct warm spot
denotes the center. Earlier, there was a helpful SSMIS microwave
pass at 0143 UTC that showed a closed cyan ring on the 37 GHz
channel, which is a signal often related to a formative low-level
eyewall and is often a harbinger for significant intensification.
An ASCAT-B pass at 0403 UTC also suggested the wind-radii were
gradually contracting, and also that the center position is a little
further east of the short-term track. The latest subjective Dvorak
estimates at 0600 UTC from SAB and TAFB have both increased to
T4.0/65 kt. These estimates, in addition to the recent structural
improvements in IR satellite and microwave imagery, support raising
the intensity to 65-kt for this advisory, making Nora a hurricane.

Nora continues to move a little more poleward this morning, with the
latest motion estimate at 345 degrees at 9 kt. While the track
forecast philosophy hasn't changed much over the last day, as a
weakening mid-level ridge provides a weakness for Nora to escape
north-northwestward, there has been a notable eastward shift in the
track guidance. The deterministic ECMWF run, for instance, is now
showing the hurricane brushing the shoreline of Mainland Mexico near
Cabo Corrientes in 24 hours, and is now quite similar to the latest
GFS forecast. The ECMWF ensembles have also shifted further east,
with around half of the members explicitly showing landfall over
mainland Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast has thus been shifted
eastward, especially during the first 24-48 hours of the forecast,
but I did not want to shift Nora's track as far east as the latest
HCCA and TVCE consensus aids and further eastward adjustments may
be necessary in subsequent forecasts. Afterwards, if Nora remains
intact, the guidance shows the system bending back to the northwest
and running up the gap of the Gulf of California between Baja
California Sur and Mainland Mexico.

Now that Nora appears to developing an inner core, at least steady
intensification is expected in the short-term while the hurricane
remains far enough offshore of mainland Mexico in a favorable
dynamic and thermodynamic environment. After 12 hours, the intensity
forecast becomes very tricky, due to just how much land interaction
Nora will encounter as it brushes by Mexico. Once again, a lot of
the reliable intensity guidance shows substantial land interaction
and are sharply lower after 24 hours. Because the latest forecast
track has been shifted further east, it increases the chance that
significant disruption of the storm may occur by the mountainous
terrain located near the coast of Mexico in that location. The
latest intensity forecast was lowered after 24 hours and held at
70 kt through 96 hours due to this large uncertainty tied to
possible land interaction. The latest forecast remains higher than
the majority of the guidance, but is lower than the previous
forecast. The wind radii have also been adjusted smaller after 24
hours, as the global model guidance suggests that the TC wind field
will shrink quite dramatically as the system tracks near mainland
Mexico.

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings have been extended further
north along the mainland Mexico coastline given the eastward
adjustments in the latest forecast track.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast strengthen today as it approaches the coasts of
the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit, and hurricane warnings
are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these
areas and points further north should closely monitor the progress
of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast.

2.Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima,
Jalisco and Nayarit, as well as Baja California Sur.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. As Nora
lifts northwest, heavy rainfall will spread into the Mexican states
of Sinaloa and Sonora as well as the southwestern U.S. during the
middle to latter portion of next week.

3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a
hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts
to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa,
and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast
intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude
and location of these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 17.1N 105.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 18.8N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 20.8N 106.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR MAINLAND MEXICO
36H 29/1800Z 22.4N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 23.3N 107.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 24.1N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 24.9N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 26.4N 110.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 28.7N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 280859
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...NORA INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATER
TODAY INTO TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning north of
Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico.

The government of Mexico has also issued a Hurricane Watch from
north of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico, and has upgraded the Tropical
Storm Watch to a Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo northward to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Manzanillo Mexico to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere further along the northwestern coast of
mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.2 West. Nora is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through the weekend. A slight bend to the
northwest is forecast by early next week. On the forecast track, the
center of Nora is expected to approach the southwestern coast of
Mexico later today and pass very near the coast of the states of
Jalisco and Nayarit by tonight. Nora is then forecast to approach
and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts, making Nora a Category 1 Hurricane. Additional
short-term intensification is anticipated as long as Nora remains
offshore the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area later today and may spread tot he norther portions of the watch
area tomorrow. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over
southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread
to the northern portions of the warning area later today and
tomorrow.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

As Nora continues north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into
the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a
result.

Additional heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches are possible across Sinaloa and Sonora during
the middle to latter part of next week as Nora moves northwest
through the Gulf of California.

Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 280858
TCMEP4

HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING NORTH OF
CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO...AND HAS UPGRADED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO MEXICO
* NORTH SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FURTHER UP ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.2W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.2W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N 105.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.8N 106.1W...NEAR MAINLAND MEXICO
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 107.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.1N 108.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 26.4N 110.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 28.7N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 105.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 280554
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
100 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...NORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 105.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from
Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to south of Manzanillo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico
* North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 24-36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 105.0 West. Nora is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach
the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and pass very near the
coast of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit by later tonight. Nora
is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California on
Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Nora is expected to become a
hurricane later today.

Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 275 miles (445 km)from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today.
Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch
area later today. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread to the northern portions of the warning area later today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

As Nora continues northwest or north-northwest, heavy rainfall will
move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja
California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may
occur as a result.

Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 280243
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Nora's cloud pattern has not become much better organized since
earlier today. The central convection has diminished, but this is
likely a diurnal fluctuation. Upper-level outflow appears to be
fairly well-defined, with convective banding features most
prominent over the southern portion of the circulation. Dvorak
intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 55 kt, so the
advisory intensity will be held at that value for now.

The storm has been moving a little to the east of the previous
track over the past few hours, but the longer-term motion estimate
is still northwestward, or 325/9 kt. Nora should move on a
northwestward or north-northwestward heading for the next 2-3 days
on the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone. Late
in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northward
as the ridge to its north weakens. The official forecast track has
been nudged just a bit to the east of the previous one during the
next 72 hours or so, but not as far east as the latest dynamical
model consensus, TVCE.

Nora is expected to be in a moist, low-shear environment for the
next few days, so the atmospheric conditions should favor
intensification into a hurricane. Nonetheless, the majority of the
intensity guidance does not show much strengthening beyond 24 hours,
probably due to land interaction. The official intensity forecast
shows gradual strengthening for the next couple of days or so, and
is similar to the previous one. This is close to the LGEM guidance
based on the ECMWF global model fields. It should be noted that
there is significant uncertainty in the future strength of Nora
because of the possible influence of land.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while
passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco and
Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are
in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates
to the forecast.

2.Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and
Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides are expected.

3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a
hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts
to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa,
and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast,
it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of
these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.3N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 280240
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...NORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 105.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 105.1 West. Nora is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach the
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and pass very near the coast of
the states of Jalisco and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora
is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California
on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 275 miles (445 km)from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread to the northern portions of the warning area through Saturday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

As Nora continues northwest or north-northwest, heavy rainfall will
move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja
California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may
occur as a result.

Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 280234
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.1W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......240NE 120SE 150SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.1W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 104.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 105.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 106.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.7N 107.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 109.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N 111.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 105.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 272346
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...NORA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 105.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 570 MI...815 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.1 West. Nora is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern
coast of Mexico tonight and pass very near the coasts of the states
of Jalisco and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then
approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread to the northern portions of the warning area through Saturday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches
are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.

As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a
result.

Toward the middle and later part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 272048
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

A 1656 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed that Nora still does
not have a tight inner core and instead has a 30-35 n mi region of
winds 20 kt or less. However, the pass did show maximum wind
vectors a little over 50 kt, so the storm has been strengthening,
and maximum winds are estimated to be 55 kt. This is supported by
Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB.

A slight adjustment was made to Nora's initial position based on
the scatterometer data, but the storm is still moving toward the
northwest (310/10 kt). Nora is expected to maintain a motion
toward the northwest or north-northwest as it heads in the
direction of a weakness in the subtropical ridge which has
developed over the U.S. southern Rockies and northern Mexico. The
track guidance envelope appears to have tightened up compared to
the past few days, with nearly all the model trackers showing
Nora's center passing offshore just west of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico, in about 24 hours and then continuing northwestward either
across the waters of the Gulf of California or inland over Baja
California Sur. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged
westward from this morning's forecast, but this is mainly due to
the adjustment of the storm's initial position. This track is very
close to the HCCA and other consensus aids.

Nora's convective structure appears to be responding to a decrease
in northeasterly shear, which is analyzed to be out of the
northeast at 10-15 kt. This shear is forecast to decrease to 10 kt
or less by tonight. Although Nora's broad structure could limit
the storm's rate of strengthening, warm waters and upper-level
divergence should allow it to become a hurricane over the next day
or so. After that time, Nora's intensity will be strongly
modulated on whether its center moves over mainland Mexico or the
Baja California peninsula. If the center remains over water, as is
shown in the official forecast, then environmental conditions
appear conducive for Nora to remain as a hurricane for several more
days, and the NHC forecast still closely follows the ECMWF-based
SHIPS and LGEM models. That said, there is still greater-than-
normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast after 48 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while
passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Jalisco and
Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are
in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates
to the forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected.

3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a
hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts
to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa,
and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast,
it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of
these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 15.5N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 18.3N 106.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 22.9N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 23.9N 109.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 25.9N 110.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 28.4N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 272048
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...NORA STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 104.9 West. Nora is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern
coast of Mexico tonight and pass very near the coasts of the states
of Jalisco and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then
approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on
Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread to northern portions of the warning area through Saturday
night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches
are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.

As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a
result.

Toward the middle and later part of next week, moisture associated
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 272048
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......240NE 120SE 150SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.3N 106.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 107.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.9N 108.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.9N 109.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 25.9N 110.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 28.4N 111.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 104.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 271734
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
100 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...RAINBANDS FROM NORA CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THOUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 104.6W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 104.6 West. Nora is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern
coast of Mexico today and tonight and pass very near the coasts of
the states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday
night. Nora will then approach and move into the Gulf of California
on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. A ship
near the coast of Mexico about 200 miles northeast of Nora's center
recently reported winds of 48 mph (78 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread to northern portions of the warning area through Saturday
evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches
are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible.

As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible.

Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 271435
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

As was expected, vertical shear appears to be decreasing, with deep
convection expanding over Nora's surface center just within the past
few hours. Water vapor imagery also suggests an expansion of
upper-level outflow to the north of the storm. Since Dvorak data-T
numbers are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, Nora's intensity is being
held at that value for now.

Nora has turned toward the northwest (310/10 kt) in response to a
weakness in the subtropical ridge that has developed over the U.S.
southern Rockies. Little change to this steering pattern is
expected during the next several days, and Nora is forecast to move
toward the northwest or north-northwest for the entire 5-day
forecast period. Compared to the last few days, nearly all the
track models now have Nora's center staying just offshore of Cabo
Corrientes, Mexico, in about 36 hours. The GFS and HMON model
fields still show a landfall in that area, but their interpolated
trackers--which have been shifted to begin at our estimated initial
position--also stay just offshore. After 36 hours, the track
guidance has shifted slightly eastward, and the new NHC track
forecast now keeps Nora's center over water up into the Gulf of
California from days 2 through 5. That will be a small needle to
thread, however, and any future shifts in the models could increase
the risk of impacts to either the Baja California peninsula or the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico through the middle of next
week.

SHIPS model diagnostics indicate that the northeasterly deep-layer
shear over Nora has decreased to about 15 kt, and this shear is
expected to decrease further to below 10 kt in about 12 hours.
Along with warm waters of about 29 degrees Celsius and significant
upper-level divergence (at least for the next 36 hours), these
conditions should foster strengthening, and Nora is still forecast
to become a hurricane on Saturday. The part of the forecast after
48 hours remains uncertain depending on how much Nora interacts
with land, but based on the new forecast that keeps the cyclone
over water in the Gulf of California (where SSTs are even warmer --
around 31 degrees Celsius), Nora could maintain hurricane intensity
through at least day 4. The NHC intensity forecast continues to
hedge on the side of the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models, since
most of the other models show Nora's center interacting with land
to at least some degree.

The new forecast has necessitated an extension of the Tropical Storm
Warning northward to San Blas, Mexico, and the issuance of a new
Tropical Storm Watch north of there to Mazatlan.

Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while
passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are
in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates
to the forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a
hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts
to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa,
and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast,
it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of
these potential impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 15.4N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.3N 105.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.9N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 21.7N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 23.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 26.1N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 28.4N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 271435
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...NORA TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF
JALISCO, NAYARIT, AND SINALOA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 104.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning north
of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has
been issued north of San Blas to Mazatlan, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 104.3 West. Nora is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern
coast of Mexico today and tonight and pass very near the coasts of
the states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday
night. Nora will then approach and move into the Gulf of California
on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nora
is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. An
automated weather station in Puerto Vicente, Guerrero, Mexico, has
reported wind gusts as high as 44 mph (72 km/h) during the past
several hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread to northern portions of the warning area through Saturday
evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches
are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible.

As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
possible.

Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 271434
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH
OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.3N 105.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...180NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.9N 105.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.7N 107.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.1N 108.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 26.1N 110.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.4N 111.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 104.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 271136
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
700 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...HEAVY RAINS FROM NORA SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA,
GUERRERO, AND MICHOACAN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 103.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and
southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress
of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
for portions of these areas later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 103.7 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a
northwestward or north-northwestward motion on Saturday and Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the
southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight and pass very
near the coast Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach
the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora
is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force
winds extending outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area beginning this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nora is expected to produce heavy rains
over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches
are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
later today and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 270900
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

The convective structure of Nora this morning continues to look a
bit disheveled, with the majority of the deeper convection still
located to the south and west of the mean low-level circulation
center due to 15-20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. More
recently, however, there are a few deeper convective tops attempting
to develop on the northeast side of the broad vortex. A helpful
ASCAT-A pass at 0307 UTC revealed that the circulation remains quite
elongated, with two distinct mesovorticies, one to the southwest
embedded in the convection, and another to the northeast. The
current center estimate roughly splits the difference between these
two points. The peak wind retrieval from that scatterometer pass
was also 43-kt with a few higher rain-contaminated values. Assuming
a bit of instrument undersampling, the current intensity is set to
45-kt for this advisory.

Nora motion continues to gradually bend rightward, with the latest
motion estimate at 300/10 kt. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, mid-level ridging to the north of Nora is gradually
being eroded by a shortwave trough propagating westward across the
Rocky Mountains. This pattern is expected to create a weakness in
the ridge that should allow Nora to begin gaining more latitude
later today. While the models are in decent agreement with this
poleward turn, there still remains some spread on how sharp this
turn will be, and whether or not the tropical cyclone will directly
impact the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latest deterministic
ECMWF and UKMET runs continue to forecast Nora to remain offshore
of mainland Mexico, while the GFS and Canadian models explicitly
show Nora making landfall in 36-48 hours. While the track guidance
envelope has narrowed some, the multi-model consensus aids have
changed very little this cycle. Therefore, the latest NHC track
forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and lies close to
the HCCA consensus aid and GFEX, which is a simple blend of the GFS
and ECMWF forecast solutions. This forecast track still brings Nora
close to Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California in around
72 hours, though uncertainty by that time frame remains high,
related to the degree of land interaction Nora will encounter prior
to that point.

Nora continues to be impacted by northeasterly vertical wind shear,
though this shear is still forecast to subside over the next 12-24
hours. As long as Nora stays far enough offshore, the reduction in
shear in combination with warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures and
ample deep-layer moisture favor strengthening. Therefore, the
latest NHC intensity forecast still indicates intensification with
Nora forecast to become a Hurricane on Saturday. This intensity
forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope,
especially after 36 hours, because a subset of the guidance aids
(HWRF, HMON, GFS) bring Nora inland after this time, substantially
disrupting the storm's circulation. However, since the latest NHC
forecast track keeps Nora far enough offshore, I have elected to
follow closer to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean intensity aids,
which show continued intensification after 36 hours. After 72 hours,
weakening is anticipated due to possible land interaction with the
mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur. Needless to say, this
intensity forecast hinges on the track of Nora remaining offshore of
mainland Mexico, and this intensity forecast is also more uncertain
than usual, especially after 36 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while
passing nearby the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane
watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for portions of that
coastline. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
closely monitor the progress of this system and subsequent updates
to the forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Nora is expected
across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

3. Nora is forecast to be near or over the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 14.6N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 15.3N 104.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 16.6N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 20.6N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 23.2N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR
96H 31/0600Z 24.9N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR
120H 01/0600Z 27.1N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 270858
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...BROAD NORA EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 103.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and
southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress
of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
for portions of these areas on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 103.5 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a
northwestward or north-northwestward motion on Saturday and Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the
southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Friday night and pass very
near the coast Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach
the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is
expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force
winds extending outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area beginning this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nora is expected to produce heavy rains
over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches
are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
later today and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 270857
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 103.5W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 103.5W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 103.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.3N 104.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.6N 105.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.6N 106.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N 107.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.2N 108.9W...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 110.4W...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.1N 111.6W...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 103.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 270551
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
100 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...NORA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 103.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and
southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress
of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
for portions of these areas on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 103.0 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a
northwestward or north-northwestward motion on Saturday and Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the
southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Friday night and pass very
near the coast Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach
the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that Nora's maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is
expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area beginning this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nora is expected to produce heavy rains
over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches
are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 270251
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

A large area of deep convection has developed over the southern and
western portions of Nora's circulation over the past several hours.
Almost all of the convection is displaced to the southwest of Nora's
center by some moderate northeasterly shear. Based on the slightly
improved satellite appearance of the cyclone, the initial intensity
is raised to 40 kt for this advisory. This is in best agreement with
the objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates of around 40 kt.

Nora has turned a bit to the right and accelerated slightly this
evening, and it is now moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. The
mid-level ridge over the southern United States that is steering
Nora is being eroded by a shortwave trough over the Rocky Mountains.
In response, Nora is expected to turn toward the northwest on Friday
and then the north-northwest on Saturday. This will bring the center
of the cyclone close to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The ECMWF
and UKMET as well as almost all the ECMWF ensemble members keep Nora
offshore, passing just offshore of Cabo Corrientes before moving
toward the entrance to the Gulf of California and Baja California
Sur. However, the GFS and many of its ensemble members still show
Nora moving inland over southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Overall,
the multi-model track guidance consensus changed little this cycle,
and so the official NHC track forecast remains very close to the
previous one. The extended forecast still shows Nora moving near or
over Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California on days 4 and 5.
However, it is worth noting that the degree of uncertainty in this
portion of the forecast is above average.

The moderate northeasterly wind shear over Nora is expected to
diminish over the next 12-24 h, which should allow the cyclone to
intensify within a moist and unstable environment over SSTs around
29 deg C. Thus, Nora is forecast to strengthen over the next few
days and become a hurricane on Saturday. Of course, this is highly
dependent on Nora remaining offshore and not moving inland over
mainland Mexico. Since the NHC track forecast keeps Nora offshore,
the official intensity forecast lies on the high end of the
intensity guidance and is closest to the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM
models. In this case, the normally reliable intensity consensus aids
are of limited use since several of the consensus members bring Nora
inland. Weakening is forecast on days 4-5 due to expected land
interaction with Baja California Sur.

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, and issued a Tropical
Storm Watch north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas. Additional
watches and warnings may be required on Friday.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while
it is near the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane watch
and tropical storm warning are in effect for portions of that area.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely
monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Nora is expected across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

3. Nora is forecast to be near or over the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 14.1N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 14.9N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 16.3N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 18.0N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 21.5N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 22.7N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 24.4N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR
120H 01/0000Z 26.0N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 270249
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...NORA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 102.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico, and issued a
Tropical Storm Watch from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas
Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and
southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress
of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
for portions of these areas on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 102.6 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a
northwestward or north-northwestward motion on Saturday and Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the
southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Friday night and pass very
near the coast Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach
the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is
expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area beginning early Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
beginning on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nora is expected to produce heavy rains
over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches
are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 270248
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.9N 103.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.3N 104.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N 105.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.7N 108.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 24.4N 110.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 112.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 102.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 262343
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...NORA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 102.2W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and
southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress
of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
for portions of these areas later tonight and on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 102.2 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 11 mph (18 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected to begin later
tonight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico Friday
and Friday night and be very near the coast Saturday and Saturday
night. Nora will then approach the southern portion of Baja
California Sur on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 205 miles (330 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area beginning later tonight or on Friday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 262037
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Scatterometer data from around midday showed that Nora has an
expansive circulation with tropical-storm-force winds nearly
reaching the coast of Mexico. The data also showed a possible
center embedded within a larger area of light winds, but it is
possible that there's another similar feature farther west where
the instrument did not sample. Nora's winds remain 35 kt based on
the ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB, and
the center has been placed between the two dumb-belling vorticity
maxima.

Even with the updated position, Nora is moving toward the
west-northwest (285/8 kt), to the south of mid-level ridging over
the southern United States. A shortwave trough currently over the
northern Rockies is expected to erode the ridge over the next 12-24
hours, allowing Nora to turn toward the northwest and then
north-northwest by the weekend. Even with the GFS's solution of
multiple swirls consolidating over the next day or so, the 12Z run
shifted left and now shows Nora potentially moving inland over
Mexico farther west than it had in previous runs. A few of the
other models--for example the HWRF and HMON--also bring the center
inland as well, but the bulk of the interpolated model trackers
continue to keep Nora just offshore but very near the coast of
southwestern Mexico in about 48 hours. Model spread remains larger
than normal, but no significant changes were required from the
previous NHC track forecast based on the latest guidance suite.
After passing southwestern Mexico, Nora is expected to be over Baja
California Sur or the Gulf of California on days 4 and 5.

Moderate northeasterly shear continues to affect Nora, but that
shear is expected to decrease to a less-intrusive magnitude during
the next 24 hours. Along with warm sea surface temperatures of
28-30 degrees Celsius, a moist mid-level environment, and
upper-level divergence, Nora is expected to strengthen in the coming
days. The rate of intensification could, however, be tempered by
Nora's large size and structure. Assuming Nora does not move inland
over southwestern Mexico, the storm is expected to become a
hurricane on Saturday and then possibly continue strengthening up
until the point it reaches the Baja California Peninsula. Much of
the intensity guidance is based on scenarios showing Nora moving
inland, which is suppressing the intensity consensus aids.
Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is mostly based on the
ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models, since the parent ECMWF model does
not show Nora moving inland.

Given Nora's larger wind field, tropical-storm-force winds are
likely to reach the coast of Mexico earlier than expected.
Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The
Hurricane Watch issued earlier today also remains in effect.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday
while it is near the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane
watch and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that
area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the
forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides could occur.

3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 13.4N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 14.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 15.3N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 16.8N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 18.6N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 20.3N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 21.6N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.6N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR
120H 31/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 262036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 101.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and
southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress
of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
for portions of these areas tonight and on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 101.7 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected to begin
tonight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
Friday and Friday night and be very near the coast Saturday and
Saturday night. Nora will then approach the southern portion of
Baja California Sur on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is
expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area beginning tonight or on Friday.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of
Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 262036
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.7W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.7W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 102.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.3N 103.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.8N 104.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.6N 105.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.6N 107.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N 110.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 101.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 261737
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT NORA'S WIND FIELD HAS GROWN IN
SIZE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 101.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Nora. Warnings or additional watches will
likely be required later today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 101.0 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A
motion toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast to begin
overnight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on
Friday and be very near the coast on Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is
expected to become a hurricane by late Saturday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that Nora is a large tropical
storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area beginning Friday or Friday night.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of
Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of
Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 261600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 78.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2021 17.1N 78.5W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.8N 54.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2021 31.8N 54.6W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 40.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2021 12.0N 40.5W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NORA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 99.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2021 12.3N 99.6W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2021 13.7N 102.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2021 14.6N 105.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2021 15.4N 106.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2021 16.3N 107.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2021 18.0N 107.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2021 19.4N 107.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2021 21.6N 108.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2021 22.7N 109.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2021 23.7N 109.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2021 24.7N 110.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2021 26.0N 111.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2021 28.0N 111.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 20.4N 82.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2021 21.4N 83.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2021 23.4N 86.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2021 25.2N 88.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2021 27.0N 90.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2021 28.8N 91.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2021 30.0N 92.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2021 31.3N 91.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2021 33.0N 90.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2021 34.2N 90.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2021 34.4N 89.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.7N 47.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2021 14.7N 47.1W WEAK
12UTC 28.08.2021 15.8N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2021 16.7N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2021 17.5N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2021 18.3N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2021 19.6N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 34.4N 45.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.08.2021 35.2N 43.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.08.2021 36.7N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2021 38.6N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2021 41.1N 31.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2021 45.0N 29.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2021 48.9N 32.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261600

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 261447
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Satellite images show that deep convection embedded within the
sprawling circulation of the depression is gradually becoming
better organized, and 91-GHz SSMIS data from 1117 UTC showed
improved curvature to the bands, especially within the western
semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates are now a consensus
T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS
are running a little higher. Therefore, the depression is being
upgraded to Tropical Storm Nora with 35-kt winds.

The microwave data, as well as first-light visible imagery, suggest
that the center may be consolidating or re-forming a little farther
east of where we had been tracking it. Nora is moving slowly
toward the west-northwest (296/6 kt), steered by a strong mid-level
ridge located over the southern United States. This ridge is
expected to dissolve over the next 24 hours as a shortwave trough
moves across the Rocky Mountains, allowing Nora to turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest through the weekend. Most of the
differences among the track models still appear to be related to
the initial location of Nora's center. The GFS continues to show
the system having multiple low-level vortices, with a dominant one
forming well to the east and moving inland along the southwestern
coast of Mexico as early as late Friday, and many more GEFS
ensemble members show a similar scenario compared to yesterday.
The HWRF and HMON are also in the camp of bringing Nora's center
inland over Mexico. Other models, including the ECMWF (and most of
its ensemble members), the UKMET, and the consensus aids, still
show Nora's center staying just offshore. The new NHC track
forecast has been shifted eastward, primarily due to the adjustment
of the initial position, and shows Nora's center very close to the
coast of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. If Nora's center
re-forms, then additional shifts in the track forecast will be
likely. By early next week, Nora is likely to head towards Baja
California Sur, but here is still a lot of uncertainty on the exact
track at that time.

Moderate northeasterly vertical shear continues to affect Nora, but
this shear is expected to decrease to 10 kt or less in 36-48 hours.
In addition, the storm will be moving over warm waters of 28-29
degrees Celsius and through an environment of high mid-level
moisture. These factors should allow for continued strengthening,
although the system's large size could be one limiting factor in how
fast that strengthening happens. Nora is expected to be near or at
hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southwestern
Mexico in 2-3 days. However, the intensity forecast, especially on
days 3-5, hinges on whether or not the center moves inland. If it
does not, Nora will have greater opportunity to strengthen while it
heads toward the Baja California Peninsula. Since several of the
intensity models assume a scenario where Nora moves inland, the NHC
intensity forecast more closely follows the no-land versions of the
GFS and ECMWF SHIPS models through day 4 to be consistent with what
is shown in the track forecast.

Given the high uncertainty in Nora's future track, and its roughly
shore-parallel path, a larger-than-normal hurricane watch area has
been issued for the southwestern coast of Mexico by the Mexican
government.


Key Messages:

1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by late Saturday
while it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico, and hurricane
and tropical storm watches are now in effect for portions of that
area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the
forecast.

2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides could occur.

3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 12.5N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 261446
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...TROPICAL STORM NORA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 100.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Lazaro
Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has
been issued east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Nora. Warnings or additional watches will
likely be required later today and tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 100.8 West. Nora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A
motion toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast to
begin overnight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of
Mexico on Friday and be very near the coast on Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nora is expected to become a hurricane by late Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area Saturday and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area beginning Friday or Friday night.

RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by Nora are expected to begin affecting the
southern coast of Mexico today and will spread northward to the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 261446
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. WARNINGS OR ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 100.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 100.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 260838
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that convection is increasing near the
center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, but it is occurring in
bands that are not showing a lot of curvature at this time.
Satellite intensity estimates are currently 35 kt from SAB and 30
kt from TAFB, and the CIMSS ADT and satellite consensus techniques
are also in the 30-35 kt range. In addition, earlier scatterometer
data showed 25-30 kt winds, although there was no data close to the
center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt. The cyclone
is being steered generally westward along the southern extent of a
mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. A deep-layer
trough over the western U.S. is forecast to weaken this ridge during
the next couple of days, with the cyclone moving northwestward to
north-northwestward as a result. The track guidance continues to
show a motion close to the coast of southwestern Mexico between
48-72 h, and the GFS and Canadian models on the eastern side of the
guidance show a landfall in Mexico. The ECMWF model is farther to
the left and keeps the system offshore of Mexico, while the UKMET is
between these extremes and keeps the center offshore of mainland
Mexico before taking the system near the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula. The forecast track is similar to the
previous track, following the consensus models in keeping the center
offshore of mainland Mexico before coming near Baja California Sur.
However, there remains above average uncertainty in the track
forecast, and interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and
in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of the
system and potential changes to the forecast.

The depression is currently being affected by northeasterly
vertical shear, which is likely to persist for another 24 h. After
that time, conditions appear favorable for strengthening if the
center stays far enough offshore. The new intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge
of the intensity guidance. The 48-120 h portion of the forecast
again has lower than average confidence due to the possibility of
land interaction.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on
Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday or Saturday
night. While the core of the storm is currently expected to pass
near but offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds
and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and
mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several
days. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of
this system and updates to the forecast.

2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 12.0N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 260837
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BEING A TROPICAL STORM...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 100.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 540 MI...875 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of the tropical depression. Watches will likely be
required for a portion of the coast later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 100.6
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph
(13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today,
with a motion toward the northwest or north-northwest on Friday
and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
expected to pass near but offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico on Friday and Saturday and then approach the southern portion
of Baja California Sur on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and
then reach hurricane intensity over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to produce heavy
rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca,
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday. Rainfall
totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible. As a result,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting the southern coast of Mexico overnight and on Thursday
and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 260837
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 260243
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

Recent satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the
depression has not become better organized this evening. It is
producing a ragged area of convection over the northwestern portion
of its circulation, which appears somewhat elongated along an
east-west axis. The latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT estimate and
subjective 00z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support an
initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.

The estimated initial motion of the poorly organized depression is
an uncertain 280/6 kt. The cyclone is being steered generally
westward along the southern extent of a mid-level ridge over the
south-central United States. A deep-layer trough over the western
U.S. is forecast to weaken the steering ridge during the next couple
of days. Thus, the depression is forecast to gain some latitude and
move west-northwestward overnight and Thursday, and then
northwestward or north-northwestward on Friday and Saturday.
Although the track guidance consensus and many GEFS and ECMWF
ensemble members still keep the center of the cyclone offshore,
there was a pronounced eastward shift in the guidance envelope this
cycle. In fact, the GFS and several GEFS members show the system
moving inland along the coast of southwestern Mexico in 2-3 days.
The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of
the previous one from 48 h onward and lies along the HFIP corrected
consensus approach (HCCA) aid. This brings the center of the cyclone
closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico, but remains offshore and
to the left of much of the latest guidance. The extended forecast
takes the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur
early next week, but overall there is above average uncertainty in
the extended portion of the track forecast. Interests along the
coast of southwestern Mexico and in Baja California Sur should
closely monitor future updates to the forecast.

The depression is located within a favorable thermodynamic
environment for strengthening, but moderate to strong northeasterly
vertical wind shear should limit its intensification rate in the
short-term period. The shear is expected to weaken by Friday, and
the system is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend over very
warm SSTs. There remains a large amount of spread in the intensity
guidance beyond 48 h, due to the potential for land interaction
earlier in the forecast period. Since the latest NHC track forecast
keeps the system offshore, the intensity forecast is much higher
than the consensus aids during this period and trends toward the
stronger statistical-dynamical guidance. Again, confidence is lower
than normal in the day 3-5 forecast.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on
Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday. While the
core of the storm is currently expected to pass near but offshore
the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall,
possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect
portions of that area over the next several days. Interests in this
area should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates
to the forecast.

2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 11.9N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 12.3N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 13.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 14.2N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 15.6N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 17.2N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 21.3N 108.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 23.0N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 260242
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE THIS EVENING...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 100.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of the tropical depression. Watches may be required for a
portion of the coast on Thursday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 100.1
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h).
A turn toward the west-northwest is expected early Thursday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest on Friday
and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
expected to pass near but offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico on Friday and Saturday and then approach the southern portion
of Baja California Sur on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and
then reach hurricane intensity over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is expected to produce
heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca,
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday.
Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend
with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible. As a result,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting the southern coast of Mexico overnight and on Thursday
and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 260241
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
0300 UTC THU AUG 26 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 99.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.3N 101.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.1N 102.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.2N 103.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.6N 104.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.2N 105.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.3N 108.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 23.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 100.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 252050
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

Scatterometer data from a few hours ago revealed that a small but
sufficiently well-defined circulation has formed on the western end
of a broader circulation which lies a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. Although the system is still in its
formative stages and banding features are not readily apparent,
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have been a consensus T2.0/30 kt
since this morning. The system is therefore now designated as a
30-kt tropical depression, although the scatterometer data
suggested that its winds are already very near tropical storm force.

The depression's surface center apparently formed a little south
of the vorticity maximum we have been tracking over the past day or
so. Therefore, the initial motion is very uncertain but is
estimated to be westward, or 275/7 kt. The evolution of the
steering pattern is fairly consistent among the models. A strong
mid-tropospheric high over the U.S. Southern Plains is forecast to
weaken over the next couple of days, causing the depression to turn
from a westward motion now, to a west-northwest motion tonight, to a
northwest and north-northwest motion by Friday and Saturday. On
this track, most of the models bring the center of the system near
but still offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. The GFS has
been a notable exception, bringing the system inland over
southwestern Mexico in about 3 days. However, that model shows a
complex interaction with multiple low-level centers that
consolidate farther east, and most of the GEFS ensemble members
remain offshore with the other deterministic models. As a result,
this first NHC official forecast also shows a track remaining
offshore and is a little to the left of the HCCA and TVCE consensus
aids.

Moderate easterly to northeasterly shear is likely to continue over
the depression for the next day or so, which would temper any fast
strengthening in the short term. Still, the system will be moving
over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius over the next few days,
and lower shear in 2-3 days should allow it to strengthen to a
hurricane by the weekend as it passes near the southwestern coast
of Mexico and approaches the southern part of the Baja California
peninsula. The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement
during the first 2 days, but there is much more spread after that
time, likely related to the degree of land interaction. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the consensus aids during the first 3
days and then a little bit above them on days 4 and 5, lying
between the HWRF and HMON models at those forecast times.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
tonight and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday. While the
core of the storm is currently expected to remain offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall,
possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect
portions of that area over the next several days.

2. The system is expected to pass near the southern portion of Baja
California Sur as a hurricane Sunday and Monday, bringing a risk of
wind and rain impacts to that area early next week. Given the
uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests in
this area should monitor the progress of this system and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 11.7N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 12.8N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 14.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.0N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 252050
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 99.4W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of the tropical depression. Watches may be required for a
portion of the coast on Thursday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 99.4
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13
km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight,
followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday and
north-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
the system is expected to pass near but offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Saturday and then approach
the southern portion of Baja California Sur later in the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and then reach
hurricane intensity over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to produce
heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca,
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday.
Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend
with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible. As a result,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin
affecting the southern coast of Mexico tonight and on Thursday
and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 252049
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021
2100 UTC WED AUG 25 2021

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 99.4W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 99.4W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 99.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.8N 102.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.7N 105.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 106.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 99.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>