Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDA-21
in United States, Cuba

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 302037
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Ida Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

Ida has continued to weaken while moving farther inland over
west-central Mississippi this afternoon. Recent observations
indicate that the stronger winds seen this morning along the
northern Gulf coast have now dropped below tropical storm strength,
and Ida has become a tropical depression. Additional weakening
should occur while Ida moves over northeastern Mississippi and the
Tennessee Valley during the next 12 to 24 hours. Ida is forecast to
become an extratropical cyclone over the eastern United States by
late Wednesday, and it is likely to be absorbed within a frontal
boundary over the western Atlantic by the end of the forecast
period.

Ida has turned northeastward and is now moving 020/8 kt. A
mid- to upper-level trough approaching Ida from the west should
cause the cyclone to move faster toward the northeast over the next
couple of days. The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a
bit better agreement regarding the forward speed of the Ida as it
moves across the eastern U.S., and the NHC track forecast is again
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Although Ida's winds have decreased, the threat of heavy rainfall
and flooding will continue to spread inland over portions of the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, the Central and Southern Appalachians
and the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Ida. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through
Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi,
and western Alabama, resulting in considerable flash and urban
flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Rivers in the
Lower Mississippi Valley will remain elevated into next week. As Ida
moves inland, additional considerable flooding impacts are likely
across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and
particularly in the Central and Southern Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.

2. In areas that experienced damage and power loss, individuals
should use extreme caution during the recovery phase. Post-storm
fatalities and injuries often result from heart attacks, heat
exhaustion, accidents related to clean up and recovery, and carbon
monoxide poisoning from improper generator use.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 32.6N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0600Z 33.6N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1800Z 34.8N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/1800Z 38.0N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1800Z 41.0N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 302037
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ida Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD
INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 90.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 90.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15
km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight through
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move
farther inland over central and northeastern Mississippi tonight.
Ida is then forecast to move across the Tennessee Valley on
Tuesday and near the central Appalachians on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next day or so.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northern Gulf coast should
continue to subside through this evening.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast
Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts
possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain
combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along
the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding
and riverine flooding continuing farther inland.

Ida will continue to turn northeast this evening and is forecast to
track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall
totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional
3 to 6 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through
Tuesday morning.

Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Southern New England: 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Wednesday into Thursday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread
minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast
from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers
will remain elevated into next week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly
across far southeast Mississippi, the southern half of Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will
shift east on Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama,
western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf
coast through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Ida. Future information on Ida can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10
PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 302036
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 90.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.6N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.8N 87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.0N 80.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 41.0N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 90.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON IDA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING
AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH,
AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 301750
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SPREADING OVER MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 90.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.45 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 90.5 West. Ida is moving
toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion
is expected to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland
over western and central Mississippi this afternoon. Ida is then
forecast to move over northeastern Mississippi tonight, and move
across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and near the central
Appalachians on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ida is
expected to become a tropical depression later this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
mainly to southeast of the center over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
997 mb (29.45 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...2-4 ft
Morgan City, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of
southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast
Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts
possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are expected. Heavy rain
combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along
the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding
and riverine flooding continuing farther inland.

Ida will continue to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to
track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall
totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional
4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through
Tuesday morning.

Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated
higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread
minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast
from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers
will remain elevated into next week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly
across southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western
Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will shift east on
Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama, western Georgia,
and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf
coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 301454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

The center of Ida has moved farther inland over western Mississippi
this morning and NWS Doppler radar velocities and surface
observations indicate that the tropical cyclone's winds have
continued to decrease. The strongest winds are located in a band
well southeast of the center along the coasts of Mississippi and
Alabama where recent surface reports indicate 30-35 kt winds are
still occurring. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt.
As Ida's circulation moves farther inland, additional weakening is
expected and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression this
afternoon. Continued weakening should occur while Ida moves over
the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, and the system is forecast to
become extratropical over the eastern United States by late
Wednesday. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone
will be absorbed by a frontal zone over the western Atlantic by the
end of the forecast period.

Ida is moving moving just east of due north or 010/8 kt. A
north-northeastward turn should occur later today, followed by a
faster northeastward motion tonight and Tuesday as a mid- to
upper-level trough approaches the cyclone from the west. The
dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered with very little
cross-track spread, although there remains some speed or along-track
spread in the guidance. The NHC forecast is near the HCCA and TCVA
consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue into this
afternoon along portions of the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama.

2. Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, will continue
over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and
southern Alabama this afternoon.

3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through
Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi,
and western Alabama, resulting in considerable flash and urban
flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Rivers in the
Lower Mississippi Valley will remain elevated into next week. As Ida
moves inland, additional considerable flooding impacts are likely
across portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio Valley, and
particularly in the Central and Southern Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.

4. In areas that experienced damage and power loss, individuals
should use extreme caution during the recovery phase. Post-storm
fatalities and injuries often result from heart attacks, heat
exhaustion, accidents related to clean up and recovery, and carbon
monoxide poisoning from improper generator use.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 31.9N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 34.5N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0000Z 35.8N 85.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1200Z 39.5N 75.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/1200Z 40.5N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 301454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SPREADING OVER MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 90.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings have been discontinued for the Louisiana coast west
of the Pearl River, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas,
and Metropolitan New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 90.7 West. Ida is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is
expected to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland
over western and central Mississippi this afternoon. Ida is then
forecast to move over northeastern Mississippi tonight, and move
across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and near the central
Appalachians on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ida
is expected to become a tropical depression this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
mainly to southeast of the center over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of
southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through early afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast
Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts
possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are expected. Heavy rain
combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along
the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding
and riverine flooding continuing farther inland.

Ida will continue to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to
track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall
totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional
4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through
Tuesday morning.

Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated
higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread
minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast
from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers
will remain elevated into next week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly
across southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western
Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will shift east on
Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama, western Georgia,
and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf
coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 301453
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST WEST
OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 90.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 170SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 90.7W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 90.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.5N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 35.8N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 39.5N 75.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 40.5N 70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 90.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 301154
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
700 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 90.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
*Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars, satellite data, and surface
observations near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 90.8 West. Ida is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion
is expected to begin by tonight and continue on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over
southwestern Mississippi this morning. Ida is then forecast to move
over central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and
tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression this
afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km),
mainly southeast of the center over water. A coastal marine
observing site at Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported
sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).
A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently measured at Biloxi,
Mississippi.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pointe a la Hache, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Bay St. Louis, LA to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Grand Isle, LA to Pointe a la Hache, LA...2-4 ft
Morgan City, LA to Grand Isle, LA...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama through this
morning or early afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning, Ida will produce additional
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 with localized higher amounts possible
across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain
combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along
the southeast coast of Louisiana with life threatening flash
flooding and significant riverine flooding continuing farther
inland.

Ida is expected to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to
track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall
totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional
4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through
Tuesday morning.

Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread
minor to isolated major riverine flooding is possible from the Lower
Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama through Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today into tonight, mainly
across southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western
Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf
coast through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 300859
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

Ida is now located well inland over southwestern Mississippi and
weakening rapidly. However, Doppler velocity data from the Slidell,
Louisiana, WSR-88D radar before it went down was still indicating
velocity values near 90 kt between 4,000-4,500 ft, while the latest
velocity data from Jackson, Mississippi, have been in the 70-75 kt
range between 7,500 and 8,000 ft well east of the center. Thus, Ida
will still be capable of producing damaging wind gusts in some of
the stronger showers and thunderstorms for the next few hours. The
intensity at 0600 UTC was 65 kt, which was based on a decay rate of
about 10 kt per hour. A slightly slower decay rate of about 5 kt
per hour has been used since then, which is the basis for the 50-kt
advisory intensity at 0900 UTC. The estimated pressure of 990 mb is
based on surface observation data, especially from McComb,
Mississippi (KMCB), which has been reporting pressures near 995 mb
with 25-30 kt of wind the past couple of hours.

The initial motion estimate is now 355/07 kt. Ida should continue
moving northward today around the western periphery of a deep-layer
ridge situated over the southeastern United States. A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected by Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level
trough approaches the cyclone, with that motion continuing through
the remainder of the week. The new NHC track forecast is just a tad
to the south of the previous advisory, and lies down the middle off
the tightly packed consensus models.

Rapid weakening will continue as Ida moves farther inland over
Mississippi due to land interaction and southwesterly vertical wind
shear of more than 20 kt. However, damaging winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to continue over southeastern Louisiana and
southwestern Mississippi through through this morning. To account
for this, the gust factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted
accordingly. Ida is likely to weaken to a tropical depression this
evening. Some slight restrengthening as an extratropical storm is
possible when Ida moves over the western Atlantic in the day 4-5
period. In addition, heavy rains will spread northward and then
northeastward along the forecast track.


Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation will continue through this
morning along portions of the coast between Grand Isle, Louisiana,
to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside
of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible
where local inundation values may be higher.

2. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread
inland near the track of Ida's center into southwestern Mississippi
through this morning and early afternoon. These winds will likely
lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through
Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, considerable flooding impacts
are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley,
Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central and Southern Appalachians,
and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 31.0N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1800Z 32.2N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/0600Z 33.7N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1800Z 35.1N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/0600Z 36.6N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/1800Z 38.1N 80.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0600Z 40.1N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z 40.5N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 300855
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM MORGAN CITY TO
GRAND ISLE...LOUISIANA.

THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED
WEST OF GRAND ISLE...LOUISIANA.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM GRAND ISLE TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*GRAND ISLE...LOUISIANA...TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE...LOUISIANA...TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 90.8W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 130SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 90.8W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 90.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.7N 89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.1N 87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.6N 84.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.1N 80.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 40.1N 71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 40.5N 67.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 90.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300855
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA NOW A TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 90.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NNE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Morgan City to
Grand Isle, Louisiana.

The Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued
west of Grand Isle, Louisiana.

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning from Grand Isle to the Mouth of the Pearl River, including
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
*Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars, satellite data, and surface
observations near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 90.8 West. Ida is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion
is expected to begin by tonight and continue on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over
southeastern Louisiana early this morning and move into southwestern
Mississippi later this morning. Ida is then forecast to move over
central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and
move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression by
this evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km),
mainly southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 32 mph (51 km/h)
and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h) were recently observed at the airport
in McComb, Mississippi. Along the Gulf coast, a Weatherflow station
in Gulfport, Mississippi, recently measured a sustained wind of 46
mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pointe a la Hache, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne..4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Bay St. Louis, LA to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Grand Isle, LA to Pointe a la Hache, LA... 2-4 ft
Morgan City, LA to Grand Isle, LA...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves
farther inland over southwestern Mississippi during the next few
hours.

Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland over
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi through this morning.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning, Ida will produce additional
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 with localized higher amounts possible
across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches is expected. Heavy rain
combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along
the southeast coast of Louisiana with life threatening flash
flooding and significant riverine flooding continuing farther
inland.

Ida is expected to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to
track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall
totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional
4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through
Tuesday morning.

Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi
Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread
minor to isolated major riverine flooding is possible from the Lower
Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama through Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today into tonight, mainly
across southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western
Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300550
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
100 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 90.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF GREENSBURG LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and satellite data near latitude
30.6 North, longitude 90.8 West. Ida is moving toward the north
near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to
continue today. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin
by tonight and continue on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana
early this morning and move into southwestern Mississippi later
this morning. Ida is then forecast to move over central and
northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and move across
the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical storm
later this morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). During the past hour, a sustained wind of 57 mph
(92 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) were measured by a
Weatherflow station in Mandeville, Louisiana. Along the Gulf coast,
a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Bay Waveland Yacht Club,
Mississippi, recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h)
and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves
farther inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few
hours.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana for the next couple of
hours. Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi through this morning.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley today. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible
across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through
today. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban
flooding and significant river flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast today and track across
the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday,
producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, through tonight.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding
along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through this morning over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama later today.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates are being discontinued after the
100 AM CDT Intermediate Advisory.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 300500
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

During the past hour, a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a
gust to 80 mph (129 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow station
in Mandeville, Louisiana.

Along the Gulf coast, a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at
Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi, recently reported a sustained
wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 90.7W
ABOUT 2 MI...4 KM E OF LIVINGSTON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 2 MI...4 KM W OF HOLDEN LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 300356
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 66 mph (106
km/h) gusting to 111 mph (179 km/h) were measured by a
Weatherflow station in Mandeville, Louisiana.


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 90.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF KILLIAN LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 300244
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Although Ida has been inland over southeastern Louisiana for several
hours, it is still a very well organized hurricane. Doppler radar
images indicate that the hurricane continues to have a well-defined
eye, though the eyewall has become a bit ragged on the southwest
side. Beyond the inner core, rain bands remain well established,
especially on the system's east side. Earlier this evening, there
were reports of extreme wind gusts over 120 kt along the coast of
southeastern Louisiana. Based on Doppler radar velocity data over
the past hour or two, the initial intensity is estimated to be 90
kt.

As Ida continues inland, rapid weakening is expected due to a
combination of land interaction and an increase in wind shear.
However, damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread
further inland over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern
Mississippi through Monday morning. To account for this, the gust
factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. Ida
is likely to weaken to a tropical storm by Monday morning and a
tropical depression by Monday night. Some slight restrengthening as
an extratropical storm is possible when Ida moves over the western
Atlantic in 4 days or so. In addition, heavy rains will spread
northward and then northeastward along the forecast track.

Ida is expected to turn northward by early Monday as it moves in the
flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. A faster motion to
the northeast is expected by Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough
approaches the system, with that motion continuing through much of
the remainder of the week. The NHC track forecast is a little to
the south or right of the previous one to come into better agreement
with the latest models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation will continue through
tonight along portions of the coast between Burns Point, Louisiana,
to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside
of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible
where local inundation values may be higher.

2. Wind damage will occur near the core of Ida as it continues
inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours.
Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of Ida's center into southwestern Mississippi through early
Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and
power outages.

3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through
Monday across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and
southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening
flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts.
As Ida moves farther inland, considerable flooding impacts are
possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee
Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic
through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 30.3N 90.7W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1200Z 31.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/0000Z 33.0N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1200Z 34.6N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/0000Z 36.1N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0000Z 40.0N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0000Z 40.7N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300244
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA TURNING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 90.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 90.7 West. Ida is moving toward
the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward
motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana
tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so,
however, Ida is expected to remain a hurricane for several more
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A sustained wind of 64 mph ( 104 km/h) and a wind gust
of 90 mph (145 km/h) were reported recently reported at the New
Orleans International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves
farther inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few
hours.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi through Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-
threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across
the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday,
producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding
along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 300243
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.7W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.7W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 90.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.5N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.0N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.6N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.1N 85.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 40.0N 72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 40.7N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 90.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 300158
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
900 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station located
northeast of Raceland Louisiana recently reported a sustained wind
of 67 mph (108 km/h) and a gust to 99 mph (159 km/h).

Within the last hour the New Orleans International Airport
reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) with a gust to 86
mph (138 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 90.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Andonian/Nepaul

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 300055
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
800 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA'S EYE PASSING JUST WEST OF NEW ORLEANS...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

A Weatherflow observations on Pontchartrain Causeway recently
reported a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h) and a gust of 89
mph (142 km/h).

An observation at the Gulfport Marina in Mississippi recently
reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h).

Another observation in Shell Beach, Louisiana, reported a sustained
wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (120 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 90.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 292354
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
700 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near
latitude 29.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. Ida is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is
expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward
motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana
tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Doppler radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is a dangerous
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so,
however, Ida is forecast to remain a hurricane through late tonight
and remain a tropical storm until Monday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust of 83
mph (133 km/h) was recently observed at New Orleans International
Airport. A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a gust of 85 mph
(137 km/h) was recently reported at Frenier Landing, Louisiana.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).
A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station
located northeast of Raceland, Louisiana, recently reported a
minimum pressure of 945 mb (27.91).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as
it moves farther inland over southeastern Louisiana through this
evening.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Tropical storm
conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana
and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-
threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across
the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday,
producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding
along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through early Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 292257
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
600 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA PASSING JUST EAST OF MATHEWS LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station at the South
Lafourche airport recently reported a sustained wind of 79 mph (125
km/h) and a wind gust of 103 mph (165 km/h).

The New Orleans Lakefront Airport reported a sustained wind of 66
mph (106 km/h) with a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h).

Also within the last hour, a Weatherflow site on the Pontchartrain
Causeway reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a wind
gust of 81 mph (130 km/h).

An observation in Lockport recently reported a minimum pressure of
941 mb (27.79 inches) inside the eye of Ida.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 90.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 292157
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA PASSING JUST EAST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station at the South
Lafourche airport recently reported a sustained wind of 93 mph (150
km/h) and a wind gust of 122 mph (196 km/h).

A Weatherflow site near Dulac reported a sustained wind of 91 mph
(146 km/h) and a wind gust of 116 mph (187 km/h) within the last
hour.

Also within the last hour, a Weatherflow site near Jefferson Parish
reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 82
mph (131 km/h).

The New Orleans Lakefront Airport reported a sustained wind of 58
mph (93 km/h) with a wind gust of 83 mph (133 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 90.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stevenson/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 292051
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM MORGAN
CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING WEST OF MORGAN CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 90.6W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 90.6W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 90.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.7N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.4N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.0N 89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.6N 87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 37.1N 84.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.6N 80.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 41.3N 72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 43.8N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 90.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 292051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...IDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 90.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning along the coast of Louisiana from Morgan
City to Intracoastal City has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning from Cameron to Intracoastal City
Louisiana has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning west of Morgan City has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 90.6 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward
motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana
tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Doppler radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so,
however Ida is forecast to remain a hurricane through late tonight
and remain a tropical storm until Monday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). A Weatherflow station near Dulac just reported sustained
winds of 93 mph (150 km/h) and a gust to 135 mph (217 km/h). A
Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station at the South
Lafourche airport recently reported a sustained wind of 91 mph (146
km/h) and wind gust of 122 mph (196 km/h). A sustained wind of 51
mph (81 km/h) and a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h) was recently reported
at Lakefront Airport in New Orleans.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...8-12 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...8-12 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...5-8 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as
it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana through this evening.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Tropical storm
conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana
and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-
threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across
the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday,
producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding
along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from
the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast
through early Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 291956
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
300 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EXTREME WINDS FROM IDA SPREADING FARTHER INLAND...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...

About one hour ago, the South Lafourche Leonard Miller Jr airport
in Galliano (KGAO) reported a peak gust of 98 mph (158 km/h). More
recently, a research gauge near the airport reported sustained
winds of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust to 110 mph (178 km/h).

A Weatherflow station near Dulac just reported sustained winds of
89 mph (143 km/h) and a gust to 138 mph (222 km/h).

Another Weatherflow station in Jefferson Parrish recently reported
a gust to 79 mph (128 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 90.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 291855
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MAKES SECOND
LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF GALLIANO LOUISIANA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ida made a
second landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana just
southwest of Galliano around 200 PM CDT (1900 UTC). Maximum
sustained winds are estimated to be 145 mph (235 km/h). The
estimated central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 in).

Within the past hour, a research wind gauge near Golden Meadow,
Louisiana, reported sustained winds of 70 mph (113 km/h) and a gust
to 107 mph (172 km/h) and a Weatherflow site in Dulac reported
sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 104 mph
(167 km/h).

The New Orleans Lakefront airport reported a peak wind gust of
76 mph (122 km/h) within the last hour.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana,
recently reported a water level of 6.8 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club,
Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.6 feet above mean
higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that
area.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 90.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...235 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291752
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
100 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MOVING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING IN
PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 90.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located by
NWS Doppler radar near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 90.3 West.
Ida is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a
slightly slower northwestward motion should continue through this
evening. A turn toward the north should occur by Monday morning,
followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion by Monday night
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move
farther inland over southeastern Louisiana this afternoon and
tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
Louisiana and western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move
across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ida is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected
during the next day or so, however Ida is forecast to remain a
hurricane through late tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). A Florida Coastal Monitoring Observation Tower at
South Lafourche Airport recently reported a sustained wind of
70 mph (113 km/h) and a wind gust of 102 mph (164 km/h). A
sustained wind of 47 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (102 km/h)
were recently reported at Lakefront Airport in New Orleans.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana,
recently reported a water level of 6.8 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.46 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...8-12 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...8-12 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...5-8 ft
Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...5-8 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
East of Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion
Bay...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ida
as it moves inland over southeastern Louisiana through this
afternoon.

Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana through tonight. Tropical
storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana
and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast this morning, spreading northeast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley later today into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast early Monday and track
across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through
Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash and riverine
flooding.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF: Swells will affect the northern Gulf coast through early
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 291653
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ida made
landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port
Fourchon around 1155 AM CDT (1655 UTC). Data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that
Ida's maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 150
mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from
reconnaissance aircraft data is 930 mb (27.46 in).

Within the past hour, sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a
gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) were reported at Lakefront Airport in New
Orleans.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana,
recently reported a water level of 6.4 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club,
Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.5 feet above mean
higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that
area.


SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 90.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 291557
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 89 mph (143 km/h) and a wind
gust of 104 mph (167 km/h).

Within the past hour, sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a
gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported at Lakefront Airport in New
Orleans.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana,
recently reported a water level of 6.0 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yatcht
Club, Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.4 feet
above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of
inundation in that area.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 90.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 291456
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Ida's rapid strengthening appears to have leveled off within the
past hour or so. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that have been in the storm this morning have reported
peak flight-level winds of 146 to 148 kt between 8000 and
10000 ft, and believable SFMR winds around 130 kt. Based on
these observations, the initial wind speed remains 130 kt for this
advisory. The central pressure appears to have bottomed out around
929 mb, and the latest dropsonde in the eye from the Air Force
plane supports a minimum pressure of 933 mb. Ida's satellite and
radar presentation is very impressive, as the 15-nm-wide eye is
very well-defined and surrounded by a ring of intense convection.
Within the past hour or so, there is evidence in radar imagery of a
secondary eyewall, and this has likely caused Ida's intensity to
level off for now. Although Ida's extreme winds are confined to the
inner eyewall, the aircraft data indicate that hurricane-force winds
extend outward about 45 n mi to the northeast of the center, and
based on buoy data the tropical-storm-force wind field extends
outward about 130 n mi northeast of the center.

Ida's eyewall is nearing the coast of Louisiana, and any additional
strengthening seems less likely now given the recent structural
changes of the inner core. While rapid weakening should occur after
landfall, damaging winds will penetrate well inland across
southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through tonight.
Ida is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression over Mississippi
by late Tuesday. The global model guidance now indicates that Ida
will likely transition to an extratropical low when it nears the
east coast of the United States and the new forecast shows the
extratropical low becoming a gale center near Atlantic Canada at day
5.

Ida has begun to slow down according to the latest aircraft and
radar fixes, and the initial motion estimate is 320/11 kt. Ida's
forward speed is likely to slow further during the next 12 to 24
hours as the hurricane turns north-northwestward, and then
northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge near
the southeastern United States coast. The cyclone is predicted to
turn northeastward by late Tuesday ahead of a short-wave trough
that will move across the central United States. The new NHC track
is close to the HCCA corrected consensus and the GFS ensemble mean,
and is not very different from the previous advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or
greater above ground level is imminent somewhere within the area
from Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher.

2. Catastrophic wind damage will occur where the core of Ida moves
onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few
hours. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are expected
today within the Hurricane Warning in southeastern Louisiana,
including metropolitan New Orleans.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of the center of Ida into southwestern Mississippi tonight
and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree
damage and power outages.

4. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall today through Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable
to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts
are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee
Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic
through Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 28.8N 90.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 30.0N 90.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1200Z 31.6N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0000Z 33.2N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1200Z 34.9N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 01/0000Z 36.4N 85.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 37.8N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 02/1200Z 40.5N 74.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z 43.5N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291452
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA NEARING THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 90.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning west of Intracoastal City, Louisiana, has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located
by reconnaissance aircraft and NWS Doppler radar near latitude 28.8
North, longitude 90.0 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near
13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly slower northwestward motion should
continue through this evening. A turn toward the north should occur
by Monday morning, followed by a slightly faster northeastward
motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will make landfall along the coast of southeastern
Louisiana within the hurricane warning area within the next few
hours. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
Louisiana and western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and
move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicated that the maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240
km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight
additional strengthening is still possible before Ida moves
onshore along the Louisiana coast. Rapid weakening is expected
after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently
reported a sustained wind of 105 mph (169 km/h) and a wind gust of
121 mph (194 km/h). A station in Shell Beach, Louisiana, recently
reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust of 52 mph
(83 km/h).

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana,
recently reported a water level of 5.6 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...8-12 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...8-12 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...6-9 ft
Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...5-8 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
East of Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion
Bay...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida
moves onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next
few hours.

Hurricane conditions will spread inland within the Hurricane
Warning area over southeastern Louisiana through tonight. Tropical
storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana
and Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast this morning, spreading northeast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley later today into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast early Monday and track
across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through
Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians
into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts,
Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash and riverine
flooding.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over
southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and
the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible
farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday.

SURF: Swells will affect the northern Gulf coast through early
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 291452
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 90.0W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 90.0W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 89.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.0N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.6N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.2N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.9N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.4N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.8N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 40.5N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 43.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 90.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 291355
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
900 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 102 mph (165 km/h) and a wind
gust of 116 mph (187 km/h). Another elevated NOAA C-MAN station at
Pilot's Station East near Southwest Pass recently reported a
sustained wind of 97 mph (156 km/h) and a gust to 121 mph (194
km/h).

A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site at Pilottown,
Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h)
and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 89.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 291254
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
800 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...800 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 105 mph (169 km/h) and a wind
gust of 121 mph (194 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 930 mb (27.46 in).


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 89.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 291158
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Special Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Recent reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Ida has continued to strengthen since the
0900 UTC advisory and the maximum winds are estimated to be 130
kt. This intensity is based on peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
146 kt that have been reported by both aircraft and believable SFMR
winds of around 130 kt. The NOAA aircraft very recently reported
that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 933 mb. This special
advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135
kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that
before landfall occurs.

The initial motion estimate is 320/13 kt, slightly faster than
the previous forecast. Therefore, the 12-hour forecast point has
also been adjusted slightly. No other changes were made to the
track or intensity forecasts.

The initial and forecast 64-kt wind radii were adjusted outward in
the northeast and southeast quadrants based on aircraft data.

Note that this Special advisory replaces the regular 1200 UTC (700
AM CDT) intermediate public advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or
greater above ground level is imminent somewhere within the area
from Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher. Interests throughout the Storm Surge Warning
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida moves
onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few
hours. Hurricane-force winds are expected today within the Hurricane
Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New
Orleans.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana
and southwestern Mississippi today through early Monday. These winds
will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida will produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the
central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi,
to far southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to life-
threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding
impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are
possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and
Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1200Z 28.5N 89.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 29.2N 90.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Special Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 89.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 89.6 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through tonight and early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday afternoon. A northeastward turn is
forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida
will make landfall along the coast of southeastern Louisiana
within the hurricane warning area late this morning or early this
afternoon. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions
of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240
km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is forecast, and Ida is expected to be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the
Louisiana coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot's Station East
near Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind
of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust to 113 mph (181 km/h). Another
NOAA elevated C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently reported a
sustained wind of 92 mph (148 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...8-12 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...8-12 ft
Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...6-9 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion
Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida
moves onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next
few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning by later this morning with
tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning.
These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast this morning, spreading northeast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley later today into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast early Monday and track
across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley through
Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley: 3 to 6 inches with
isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash and riverine
flooding.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday from
southeast Louisiana across southeast Mississippi and southwest
Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 291156
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
1200 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 89.6W AT 29/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 89.6W AT 29/1200Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.2N 90.4W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 89.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 291057
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
600 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NOAA PLANE FINDS IDA STRONGER...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from
reconnaissance aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 in).

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot's Station East near
Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 82
mph (131 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph (172 km/h). Another NOAA
elevated C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently reported a
sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 mph (150
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 89.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 290951
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IDA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to 145 mph (230 km/h).

A NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported
a sustained wind of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (118
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 89.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 290918 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 12...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Corrected storm surge heights for Mississippi coast

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 89.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 6 to 12 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 89.1 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through tonight and early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday afternoon. A northeastward turn is
forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida
will continue moving across the north-central Gulf of Mexico this
morning, and make landfall along the coast of southeastern Louisiana
within the hurricane warning area this afternoon or evening. Ida is
then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and
western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Satellite and Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts.
Ida is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Ida is
expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes
landfall along the Louisiana coast this afternoon. Rapid weakening
is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA ...8-12 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...8-12 ft
Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...6-9 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion
Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning by later this morning with
tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning.
These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast this morning, spreading northeast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley later today into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast early Monday and track
across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley through
Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley: 3 to 6 inches with
isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash and riverine
flooding.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday from
southeast Louisiana across southeast Mississippi and southwest
Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 290859
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Ida has undergone some dramatic inner-core structural changes since
the previous advisory. The eye between 25,000-45,000 ft has become
circular with a diameter of about 15 nmi now, and at least two
eyewall mesocyclones have been noted rotating cyclonically around
the eyewall in both radar and high-resolution 1-minute GOES-16
satellite imagery. The result has been rapid strengthening of at
least 30 kt during the past 6 hours, along with a pressure drop of
more than 15 mb during that same time, with a 6-mb decrease having
occurred in the 1-hr period between about 0500-0600 UTC based on Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft eye dropsonde data. The
aircraft also measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of
133 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a peak SFMR surface
wind speed of 116 kt. Furthermore, NWS Doppler radar velocity data
from Slidell, Louisiana, has recently been measuring velocities of
120-130 kt between 25,000-30,000 ft, which is quite rare, and
indicates that Ida is a vertically deep and intense hurricane. Ida
was initialized with 115 kt at 0600 UTC, but the 0900 UTC advisory
intensity has been increased to 120 kt based on the 133-kt
flight-level wind and the improved structure in both radar data and
satellite imagery since the 0609 UTC time of that aircraft
observation.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/13 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic
reasoning. The subtropical ridge oriented east-west along 30N-31N
across the southeastern U.S. is forecast to remain intact through
the forecast period with only minor shifts in the location and
strength of the ridge. As a result, Ida should continue to move
northwestward toward the southeastern Louisiana coast today,
followed by a gradual turn toward the north tonight after landfall.
On Monday, the hurricane is expected to move northeastward across
the Tennessee Valley when Ida moves north of the ridge axis.
Impacts and hazards will arrive well before the eye of the hurricane
makes landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin later
this morning. Therefore, all preparations to protect life and
property must be rushed to completion. The new track forecast is
basically just an update of the previous advisory track.

Ida will remain over waters with high oceanic heat content for
another 6 hours or so. Thereafter, the heat content will drop
sharply to less than half of the current value of more than 100
units. However, some additional strengthening is expected until
landfall occurs. After Ida moves inland tonight, rapid weakening is
forecast due to a combination of land interaction, entrainment
of drier air, and some increase in westerly vertical wind shear.

Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the
track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread
inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through
early next week.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama
within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening
inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible
somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast
of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane
and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local
inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of southeastern Louisiana. Hurricane-force
winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area
along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana
and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These
winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida will produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the
central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi,
to far southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts
are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee,
and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 28.0N 89.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR SERN LOUISIANA
24H 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 290855
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 89.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 6 to 12 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 89.1 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through tonight and early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday afternoon. A northeastward turn is
forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida
will continue moving across the north-central Gulf of Mexico this
morning, and make landfall along the coast of southeastern Louisiana
within the hurricane warning area this afternoon or evening. Ida is
then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and
western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Satellite and Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts.
Ida is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Ida is
expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes
landfall along the Louisiana coast this afternoon. Rapid weakening
is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA ...8-12 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake
Borgne...8-12 ft
Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Bay St. Louis, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion
Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft
AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning by later this morning with
tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning.
These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
southeast Louisiana coast this morning, spreading northeast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley later today into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast early Monday and track
across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley through
Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday
morning.

Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches, tonight through Monday night.

Middle Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley: 3 to 6 inches with
isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday.

These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash and riverine
flooding.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday from
southeast Louisiana across southeast Mississippi and southwest
Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 290855
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.3W...NEAR SERN LOUISIANA COAST
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 89.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 290803
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
300 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 89.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 290645
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...MAJOR HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars indicate that Hurricane Ida has continued to
rapidly intensify this Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are
now estimated to be 130 mph (215 km/h). This makes Ida a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Ida's central pressure has fallen 6 millibars during the past hour.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 88.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 290552
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS IDA HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 88.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 6 to 12 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Ida was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.7
West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and
this general motion should continue through tonight and early
Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday afternoon.
A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Ida will continue moving across the
north-central Gulf of Mexico this morning, and make landfall along
the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area this
afternoon or evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over
portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ida is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue
during the next 12 hours or so, and Ida is expected to be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the
Louisiana coast this afternoon. Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion
Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning by late morning with
tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning.
These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
Louisiana later this morning, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley by later today into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern
Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and
riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will
begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and
riverine flooding impacts.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday across
eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will begin at 200 AM CDT. These
can be found under WMO header WTNT64 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCUAT4.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 290545
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS IDA HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE......
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 88.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 6 to 12 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Ida was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.7
West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and
this general motion should continue through tonight and early
Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday afternoon.
A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Ida will continue moving across the
north-central Gulf of Mexico this morning, and make landfall along
the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area this
afternoon or evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over
portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ida is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue
during the next 12 hours or so, and Ida is expected to be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the
Louisiana coast this afternoon. Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion
Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning by late morning with
tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning.
These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
Louisiana later this morning, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley by later today into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern
Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and
riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will
begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and
riverine flooding impacts.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday across
eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will begin at 200 AM CDT. These
can be found under WMO header WTNT64 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCUAT4.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 290250
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigated Ida earlier this evening and
found that the maximum winds were still around 90 kt. Although the
peak winds appear to have leveled off for now, the minimum pressure
has continued to fall and was down to 966 mb at the last pass
through the center an hour or two ago. In fact, the pressure has
been dropping by about 2 mb per hour based on the aircraft data. In
addition, tail Doppler Radar data from the aircraft indicate that
the vortex has become more symmetric and that the inner core has
contracted from the mission earlier today. These are signals that
Ida is poised to strengthen further, and based on recent satellite
images it appears that strengthening is imminent. Flight-level and
SFMR observations also indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded
and there is some indication of a double-wind maximum. The
tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 120 n mi from
the center and hurricane-force winds up to 35 n mi from the eye.

Ida continues to move steadily to the northwest at about 14 kt.
There has been little change to the track forecast rationale. A
subtropical ridge situated near the southeast U.S. coast is expected
to shift westward during the next day or two. This feature should
continue to steer Ida northwestward toward the Louisiana coast. The
latest runs of the numerical models bring the center of Ida to
southeast or south-central Louisiana Sunday afternoon. Although
landfall is not expected for about 18 hours, impacts will begin well
before that time. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin
overnight, therefore, all preparations to protect life and property
must be rushed to completion. The new track forecast is just a
little to the east of the previous one through landfall. After Ida
moves inland, a turn to the north and then the northeast is expected
as the storm moves in the flow on the northwest and north sides of
the ridge.

Ida remains over waters with high oceanic heat content, and in an
atmospheric environment of low wind shear and abundant moisture.
These conditions, combined with the improved structure of the
hurricane, should allow Ida to rapidly intensify until it makes
landfall. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and the NHC
forecast holds steady and brings Ida to a dangerous major hurricane
prior to landfall. After the storm moves inland on Sunday, rapid
weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction,
drier air and some increase in wind shear.

Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the
track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread
inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through
early next week.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama
within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening
inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible
somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast
of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane
and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local
inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana
and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These
winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across
the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable
to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts
are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee,
and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 27.2N 88.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 28.4N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 29.9N 90.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 31.4N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1200Z 34.8N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0000Z 36.3N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0000Z 38.6N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 290248
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 88.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 88.0 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by
Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will
continue moving across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico
tonight and early Sunday, and make landfall along the coast of
Louisiana within the hurricane warning area Sunday afternoon or
evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 18
hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on
Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion
Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin later tonight or early Sunday
morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern
Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and
riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will
begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and
riverine flooding impacts.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across
eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 290248
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 88.0W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 88.0W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.4N 89.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.9N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.4N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.8N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.3N 86.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 38.6N 80.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 88.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 282353
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 87.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near
latitude 26.6 North, longitude 87.5 West. Ida is moving toward the
northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by
Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will
continue moving across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico
tonight and early Sunday, and make landfall along the coast of
Louisiana within the hurricane warning area Sunday afternoon or
evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of
Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night.

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours and
Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it
makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday. Rapid weakening
is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 969 mb (28.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday
morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern
Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern
Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and
riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will
begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and
riverine flooding impacts.

Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba
this evening as the storm continues to lift northward away
from the island. Additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated
maximum amounts of 4 inches possible across western Cuba through
this evening. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and
mudslides.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across
the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the
Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist
across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 282051
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Ida's satellite presentation has continued to improve this
afternoon, with the eye becoming more apparent in both infrared and
visible satellite imagery. The eye is surrounded by a symmetric
ring of cold cloud tops and new convection with lightning as seen
by the GOES-16 GLM sensor has been rotating around the western
portion of the eyewall within the past few hours. The upper-level
outflow has also become well established over the hurricane and
several spiral bands are noted over the northern semicircle.
Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have increased to
T5.0 and these support increasing the initial intensity to 90 kt
for this advisory. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft are scheduled to be in the hurricane within the next few
hours and should provide additional information on Ida's current
strength. Earlier aircraft and satellite wind data indicate that the
tropical-storm-force wind field has continued to expand over the
eastern semicircle and the initial wind radii have been adjusted
outward.

The hurricane appears to have begun its anticipated rapid
intensification phase. A favorable upper-level wind pattern, warm
waters along the track, and a moist atmosphere are expected to allow
for additional rapid strengthening overnight and early Sunday. This
is again supported by the majority of the intensity models, and the
NHC wind speed forecast continues to call for rapid strengthening,
bringing Ida to Category 4 status within 12 to 18 hours. An eyewall
replacement cycle could occur as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast,
so some fluctuations in intensity are possible during that time.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Ida is forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4, and it is likely to be
absorbed along a frontal zone by day 5.

Ida has moved a little to the right of the previous track, but the
long-term motion motion is still northwestward or 320/14 kt. The
track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Ida is expected to
continue on a northwestward heading through late Sunday as it is
steered around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge near
the southeastern United Stated coast. After landfall, Ida's forward
motion is forecast to slow when it turns northward around the
western extent of the aforementioned ridge. By Tuesday, the cyclone
should reach the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies,
causing it to turn north-northeastward across the Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys. The track guidance has nudged slightly
eastward during the first 12-24 hours, primarily due to the more
northeastward initial position, and this has required a slight
rightward adjustment in the new official forecast at those times.
The remainder of the NHC forecast is largely unchanged from before,
and lies near various consensus models and the GFS ensemble mean.

Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the
track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread
inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through
early next week after Ida makes landfall.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama
within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening
inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible
somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast
of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane
and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local
inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the
track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana
and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These
winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across
the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable
to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river
flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts
are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee,
and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 26.2N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 27.5N 88.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/0600Z 34.0N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 35.7N 88.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z 38.0N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 282050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward to the
Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 87.0 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by
Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move
over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Ida is then
expected to make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the
hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over
portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi later on Monday and
Monday night.

Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours
and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane
when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday.
Weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). NOAA buoy 42003, located about 90 miles (145 km) east of
the eye, reported peak one-minuted sustained winds of 54 mph (83
km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) within the past hour or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft
Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday
morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern
Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine
flooding impacts.

Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern
Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and
riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will
begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and
riverine flooding impacts.

Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba
this evening as the storm continues to lift northward away
from the island. Additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated
maximum amounts of 4 inches possible across western Cuba through
this evening. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and
mudslides.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across
the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the
Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist
across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and
will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 282050
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.5N 88.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.0N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.7N 88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 38.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 281457
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

The satellite presentation of Ida has continued to improve this
morning with the center embedded within a fairly symmetric Central
Dense Overcast and hints of the eye in both visible in infrared
satellite imagery. Earlier microwave imagery revealed a well-
defined low- to mid-level eye and excellent spiral banding over the
northern semicircle. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft, somewhat surprisingly, have not found a
significantly deepening tropical cyclone yet, but given the very
recent increase in organization and structure, the winds are likely
to catch up to the satellite appearance very soon. Using the latest
flight-level and SFMR wind data from the aircraft and satellite
intensity estimates the initial wind speed remains 75 kt for this
advisory. The aircraft data does indicate that Ida's wind field has
expanded, and the NHC wind radii have been adjusted accordingly.

Given the improved inner-core structure Ida appears poised to
rapidly intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains
within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and over
warm water. Although the interpolated intensity guidance has
lowered somewhat due to the fact that Ida has not significantly
strengthened yet, the explicit forecasts from the dynamical models
continue to support significant deepening, and the latest runs of
the HWRF and HMON models indicate Ida will reach Category 4 strength
before landfall. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for rapid
intensification to Category 4 strength during the next 24 hours.
After that time, fluctuations in intensity are possible due to
eyewall replacement cycles as Ida approaches the northern Gulf
coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Ida is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday night, and
become a post-tropical cyclone as it moves over the Tennessee Valley
by mid-week.

Ida has been moving steadily northwestward or 315/14 kt. A deep
layer ridge near the southeastern United States coast is forecast to
shift westward during the next day or so, and this should continue
to steer Ida northwestward through landfall on Sunday. The track
guidance remains in remarkably good agreement through 36 hours, and
the new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged during that
time, and continues to indicate that Ida will reach the coast of
Louisiana on Sunday. After landfall, Ida will be near the western
extent of the ridge and should turn northward and then northeastward
as it recurves into the southern portion of the mid-latitude
westerlies. The track guidance has shifted slightly westward beyond
48 hours, and the track forecast over the southern U.S. and the
Tennessee Valley has been adjusted accordingly. Users are again
reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as
storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the
center. Wind and rainfall impacts will also penetrate inland
through early next week after Ida makes landfall.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within
the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi.
Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion today in the warning area.

3. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday across
the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi, resulting in life-threatening flash and urban flooding
and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland,
significant flooding impacts are likely across portions of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Monday and Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 24.8N 86.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 28.0N 89.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 29.4N 91.0W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/0000Z 32.7N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 34.4N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 36.8N 85.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 37.9N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 281451
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SOON...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 86.1W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward along the
northern Gulf coast to the Alabama/Florida border.

The Hurricane Watch along the coast of Mississippi from the Mouth
of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border has been
discontinued. The Hurricane Watch along the coast of Louisiana
west of Intracoastal City has also been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch from Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife
Refuge, Louisiana has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mobile Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 86.1 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move
over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday. Ida is
then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast
within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland
over portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.
Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday
morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the
Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower
Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
life-threatening flash and urban flooding impacts and significant
riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast later Monday, with rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central
Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in
considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts.

Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba today
as the storm continues to lift northward away from the island. An
additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 4
inches are possible across western Cuba through today. These
rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across
the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the
Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist
across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba
through today. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern
Gulf coast later today and continue through Monday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 281450
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI FROM THE MOUTH
OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE
REFUGE LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOBILE BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 86.1W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 86.1W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 89.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.4N 91.0W...NEAR COAST OF LOUISIANA
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.7N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.4N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 36.8N 85.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 37.9N 79.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 86.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 281150
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 85.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower
northward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move
over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday. Ida is
then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast
within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland
over portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous
major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on
Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early
Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions
of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. Gusty winds
are possible over portions of western Cuba and the Florida Keys
this morning.

RAINFALL: Ida will bring an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across western Cuba
today. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and
mudslides.

As Ida moves into the Louisiana coast late Sunday, total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern
Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in
significant flash and riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday,
with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern
Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is
likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding
impacts.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible Sunday through early
Monday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba
through today. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern
Gulf coast later today and continue through Monday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280909 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Corrected Storm Surge Hazard Section

...IDA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday. A slower northward
motion is forecast on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and over
the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Ida is then expected
to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the
hurricane warning area by late Sunday or early Monday, then move
through portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.
Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early
Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions
of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. Gusty winds
are possible over portions of western Cuba and the Florida Keys
this morning.

RAINFALL: Ida will continue to lift north of Cuba this morning
bringing an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches across western Cuba through today. These
rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida moves into the Louisiana coast late Sunday, total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in significant
flash and riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday,
with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern
Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is
likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding
impacts.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible Sunday through early
Monday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba
through Saturday morning. Swells will begin reaching portions of
the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 280859
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Just after the last advisory, the convective structure of Ida got a
bit ragged, probably due to the residual effects of land
interaction with Cuba and a tongue of dry air that wrapped into the
eastern side of the circulation. However, latest radar images from
Cuba show that the eye is becoming better defined, and satellite
imagery shows cooling of the cloud tops in the eyewall. The
initial intensity has been held at 70 kt based on the latest trends
and earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft data. NOAA and Air Force
reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Ida
again starting around 12Z.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 315/14. A subtropical
ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift
westward through the weekend, and this feature should continue to
provide a steering flow that will take Ida steadily northwestward
across the Gulf of Mexico during the next 36-48 h. The track
guidance remains in good agreement that Ida will make landfall on
the coast of southeastern or central Louisiana late Sunday or early
Monday morning. After landfall, Ida is expected to turn northward
through Louisiana and western Mississippi at a slower forward speed
as it moves around the western end of the ridge. Recurvature into
the westerlies and an east-northeastward motion are expected by the
end of the forecast period. The new forecast track is nudged
slightly to the west after 36 h to keep it near the various
consensus models, but this is not a significant change from the
previous forecast. Users are again reminded to not focus on the
exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

Ida is expected to remain in a favorable environment of light
vertical shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures until it
makes landfall. The only negative factor is the possibility that
dry air may try to entrain into the system and slow the expected
intensification. The SHIPS and LGEM models are showing a little
less strengthening than previously. However, the HWRF and HMON
models continue to forecast Ida to reach Category 4 intensity
before landfall. The new intensity forecast will forecast a peak
intensity of 120 kt in best agreement with the HWRF and HMON, and
the pre-landfall part of the forecast is little changed from the
previous forecast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due
to land interaction, drier air, and an increase in shear, and Ida
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone as it moves through
the Tennessee Valley.

As Ida continues to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico, an expansion
of its wind field is predicted. The NHC wind radii forecast is
largely based on the radii consensus, and winds of at least tropical
storm force are likely to reach the coast Sunday morning. Therefore,
all preparations to protect life and property for this dangerous
event need to be made today.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are ending over Cuba.
However, Ida will continue to bring periods of heavy rain across
western Cuba through today that may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given
by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi resulting in significant flash and riverine flooding
impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across
portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.0N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0600Z 33.2N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0600Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0600Z 37.5N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280858
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion should
continue through late Sunday or early Monday. A slower northward
motion is forecast on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and over
the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Ida is then expected
to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the
hurricane warning area by late Sunday or early Monday, then move
through portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.
Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early
Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions
of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. Gusty winds
are possible over portions of western Cuba and the Florida Keys
this morning.

RAINFALL: Ida will continue to lift north of Cuba this morning
bringing an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches across western Cuba through today. These
rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida moves into the Louisiana coast late Sunday, total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern
Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in significant
flash and riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday,
with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern
Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is
likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding
impacts.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible Sunday through early
Monday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba
through Saturday morning. Swells will begin reaching portions of
the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 280858
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA
* MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 85.2W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 85.2W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.4N 86.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.6N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.2N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 36.0N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 37.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 85.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280552
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 84.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of
Youth
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas
should also monitor the progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 84.7 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should
continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A
slower northward motion is forecast after Ida moves inland. On the
forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico today and over the north central Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S.
northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area by late
Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or two, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over
the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba, and these winds
will continue for a few more hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early
Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday,
with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern
Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is
likely to result in flash and riverine flooding impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba
through Saturday morning. Swells will begin reaching portions of
the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 280240
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Ida made landfall in the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio around
2320 UTC with maximum sustained winds estimated to be around 70 kt.
Radar data from Cuba indicate that the inner core of Ida has
remained intact after its passage over western Cuba with a
well-defined eye and relatively symmetric eyewall evident. In
addition, satellite images show deep convection increasing in both
intensity and coverage, a sign that Ida is strengthening. The Air
Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Ida and so far
have found maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 75 kt. Based on
that data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. A subtropical
ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift
westward through the weekend. This feature should continue to
provide a steering flow that will take Ida steadily northwestward
across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. The models
remain in very good agreement and show Ida making landfall in
Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday morning. After the storm moves
inland, a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north and then
the northeast is predicted as Ida moves in the flow on the northwest
and north sides of the ridge. Since the models are tightly clustered
and because the steering flow is well pronounced, there is high
confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids,
which are often the most accurate models. Users are again reminded
to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm
surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

Ida is expected to remain in conducive conditions for
intensification until it reaches the central Gulf coast. The global
models show a very favorable upper-level wind pattern over the storm
and abundant environmental moisture. These conducive atmospheric
conditions combined with very warm Gulf of Mexico waters should
allow Ida to rapidly intensify this weekend. In fact, it seems
likely that Ida will pass over a warm eddy over the central Gulf of
Mexico, where the ocean heat content is very high. All of the
models show significant strengthening, but there is a fair amount of
spread on how strong the hurricane will get. The NHC intensity
forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance, and shows
Ida becoming an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane prior to
reaching the coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due
to land interaction, drier air, and an increase in shear.

As Ida continues to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico, an expansion
of its wind field is predicted. The NHC wind radii forecast is
largely based on the radii consensus, and winds of at least tropical
storm force are likely to reach the coast Sunday morning. Therefore,
all preparations to protect life and property for this dangerous
event need to be made on Saturday.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected to continue for the next few hours in portions of western
Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in
effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides
are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given
by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban,
small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland,
flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 23.0N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 24.4N 85.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 26.1N 87.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 27.8N 89.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 29.2N 90.8W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/1200Z 30.7N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0000Z 32.3N 90.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z 34.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0000Z 36.8N 83.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 280239
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA NOW ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of
Youth
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas
should also monitor the progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 84.0 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should
continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A
slower northward motion is forecast after Ida moves inland. On the
forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern
and central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two and make
landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane
warning area by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane
when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over
the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba, and these winds
will continue for a few more hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early
Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in
considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday,
with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern
Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is
likely to result in flash and riverine flooding impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba
through Saturday morning. Swells will begin reaching portions of
the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 280238
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA
* MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 84.0W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 0SE 0SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 84.0W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 85.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 87.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.8N 89.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.2N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.7N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.3N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 34.9N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.8N 83.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 84.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 272349
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA INLAND OVER PINAR DEL RIO CUBA...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 83.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of
Youth
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas
should also monitor the progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
over western Cuba near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 83.5 West.
Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf
coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida
reaches the northern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center
of Ida will remain over western Cuba for another hour or two, and
then move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico later
tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the
U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves
over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend,
and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane
when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) has recently been
reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over
the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba and will continue
through tonight in western Cuba.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica.
Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to
coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. This is
likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and
riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday
with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and
central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to
result in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman
Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching
portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 272324
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
725 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA MAKES LANDFALL IN PINAR DEL RIO CUBA...

Satellite images, radar data from Cuba, and data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters indicate that Ida has made landfall in the Cuban
province of Pinar Del Rio, about 20 miles (30 km) east of La
Coloma. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 80 mph (130
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 725 PM EDT...2325 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 83.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 272049
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Cuban radar data and reports from an earlier Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that Ida's inner core structure
continued to improve after the release of the previous advisory
package. An eye became apparent in radar imagery before the center
reached the Isle of Youth, and the final fix from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a closed 24-n-mi wide eye. The
aircraft measured winds to support hurricane intensity shortly
before 1800 UTC, and during the final northeast eyewall pass, and
flight-level wind data support increasing the intensity to 70 kt,
which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory.

The upper-level outflow has expanded over all but the southwestern
portion of the circulation, and the upper-level wind pattern is
forecast to continue to improve overnight and early Saturday.
Once Ida moves past western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, it will be moving through a very favorable oceanic and
atmospheric environment consisting of high ocean heat content
waters, low vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level
atmosphere. These conditions are likely to result in a period
of rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. In fact,
with the higher initial wind speed, the intensity guidance has
significantly increased this cycle, and the bulk of the guidance
now brings Ida to category 4 intensity. The NHC forecast explicitly
calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours,
which is supported by several of the dynamical models, the LGEM
model, and high probabilities of rapid intensification indicated
by the SHIPS and DTOPS RI guidance. The NHC forecast is near
the IVCN multi-model consensus aid, but is lower than HCCA and
LGEM. It should be noted that some fluctuations in intensity are
possible as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast due to possible
eyewall replacement cycles. In addition to the expected increase in
strength, the dynamical model guidance again calls for Ida's wind
field to expand while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. As a
result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a large and
powerful hurricane will impact portions of the northern Gulf coast
by late this weekend and early next week.

Ida has wobbled a little right of the previous track, but the longer
term motion continues to be northwestward or 320/13 kt. The steering
currents remain well-established as a strong deep-layer ridge over
the western Atlantic should continue to steer Ida northwestward
across the Gulf this weekend. Ida will approach the western
portion of the ridge after landfall, and this should result in a
slower northward motion by day 3. After that time, a short-wave
trough over the central United States is expected to cause the
system to turn northeastward. The track guidance remains in
remarkably good agreement through landfall along the northern Gulf
coast, and there is higher-than-normal confidence in that portion of
the track forecast. However, users are again reminded to not focus
on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind,
and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected to continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are
expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the
Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of
10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given
by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when
it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are
expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with
potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida
moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion in the warning area.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban,
small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland,
flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.1N 83.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.1N 89.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 91.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 31.5N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 34.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 272046 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Corrected typo in the second headline

...CENTER OF IDA APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 83.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from east of Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border
including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River, including Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf
coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the coast
of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of
Youth
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas
should also monitor the progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should
continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A
slower northward motion is forecast after Ida reaches the northern
Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass
over western Cuba during the next several hours, and then move over
the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico later tonight and
Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern
Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated while
Ida moves over western Cuba this evening. Steady to rapid
strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and
central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be
an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the
northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) has recently been
reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over
the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba and will continue
through tonight in western Cuba.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica.
Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to
coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. This is
likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and
riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday
with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and
central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to
result in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman
Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching
portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 272042
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...CENTER OF IDA APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 83.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from east of Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border
including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River, including Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf
coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the coast
of Louisiana from west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of
Youth
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Interests in the Dry Tortugas
should also monitor the progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ida is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should
continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A
slower northward motion is forecast after Ida reaches the northern
Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass
over western Cuba during the next several hours, and then move over
the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico later tonight and
Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern
Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated while
Ida moves over western Cuba this evening. Steady to rapid
strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and
central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be
an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the
northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) has recently been
reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion
Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occuring over
the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba and will continue
through tonight in western Cuba.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica.
Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to
coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. This is
likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and
riverine flooding impacts.

Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday
with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and
central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to
result in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman
Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching
portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 272041
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF ROCKEFELLER
WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
INCLUDING VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND
LAKE MAUREPAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST
OF LOUISIANA FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA
* MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 83.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 83.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 82.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.5N 84.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.1N 89.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.5N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.4N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 86.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271743
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA MAKES LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ON THE ISLE OF YOUTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 82.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF THE CENTER OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 145 MI...245 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued all Tropical
Storm Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of
Youth

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along
the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this
system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of
the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas
should also monitor the progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located
by Cuban radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 21.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ida is moving toward the
northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should
continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will pass over the Isle of Youth during the next
hour or so, move over western Cuba later today, and move over the
southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Ida
is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast
within the hurricane watch area on Sunday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast before the
center moves over western Cuba later today. Steady to rapid
strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and
central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be
a major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the
center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km) from the center. Sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a
gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has recently been observed on Cayo Largo,
Cuba.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth
and are expected to spread over portions of western Cuba in the
hurricane warning area by later this afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm conditions are already beginning to reach portions
of western Cuba and will continue through early Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night
or Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica.
Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to
coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is
forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and
central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash,
urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman
Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching
portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 271712
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
115 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Ida has strengthened into a hurricane as it approaches the
Isle of Youth, Cuba. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to
be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

A sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (96 km/h)
were recently reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba.


SUMMARY OF 110 PM EDT...1710 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 271516 CCA
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021

CORRECTED TO ADD 64-KT WIND RADII AT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON...LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 81.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 82.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 271448
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON...LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 81.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 82.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 271449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Radar imagery from Grand Cayman and Cuba as well as satellite data
continue to show an improvement in Ida's overall structure this
morning, with an increase in banding, the development of a small
central dense overcast, and more recently an improved inner-core
feature. Both the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
reported that the pressure has fallen to around 996 mb, and the Air
Force plane has measured flight-level and SFMR winds that support
an initial intensity of 55 kt.

Although there is still some southwesterly shear over Ida, the
outflow has begun to expand over the northeastern and southeastern
portions of the circulation. The upper-level trough near the
Yucatan peninsula that has been imparting the shear over Ida is
forecast to weaken and move westward during the next 12 to 24
hours, which should result in a more favorable upper-level
wind pattern. This, in combination with warm sea surface
temperatures and a moist environment along the forecast track of
the storm are expected to result in steady to rapid strengthening.
Ida is now foreast to become a hurricane when it is near western
Cuba and once it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico a period
of rapid strengthening is likely to begin, with the NHC intensity
forecast explicitly calling for rapid intensification to major
hurricane strength between 24 and 48 hours. The official intensity
forecast is on the higher side of the intensity guidance but not
quite as high as the slightly more aggressive CTCI, HWRF, and HCCA
models. In addition to the increase in strength, the dynamical
model guidance indicates that Ida's wind field will grow larger as
it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and this is reflected in the NHC
wind radii forecast. In summary, there is a higher-than-normal
confidence that a significant hurricane will impact a large portion
of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week.

Ida is moving northwestward or 320/13 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged from before. A mid-level ridge over the
western Atlantic is forecast to move westward and this should keep
Ida on a general northwestward heading during the next 48-60 hours.
This track will bring the storm across western Cuba later today,
over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and
Saturday night, to the coast of Louisiana by late Sunday. The
track guidance is in remarkably good agreement with very little
cross-track spread during the first 60 hours or so of the forecast
period. After that time, Ida is forecast to reach the western
portion of the ridge, which is expected to cause the storm to slow
down and turn northward and then northeastward over the
southeastern United States. The NHC track forecast is near or
just east of the various consensus aids, in best agreement with the
GFS ensemble mean. Although the small spread in the guidance
through landfall increases the overall confidence in the track
forecast, users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of
the forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected later today and tonight in portions of western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are
expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

2. The risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation is increasing
along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Inundation
of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is possible within the area from
Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including
Lake Borgne. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given
by local officials.

3. Ida is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches
the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday, and the risk of hurricane-force
winds continues to increase, especially along portions of the
Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans. Potentially
devastating wind damage could occur where the core of Ida moves
onshore.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday
across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal
Mississippi and Alabama, as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley,
resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine
flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 20.7N 82.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24H 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271448
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 82.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has replace the Tropical Storm Warning with
a Hurricane Warning for the Isle of Youth, and the Cuban provinces
of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of
Youth

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along
the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this
system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of
the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas
should also monitor the progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 82.1 West. Ida is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion
should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western
Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf
of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall
along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.

Reports from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
today and Ida is expected to be a hurricane when it nears western
Cuba later today. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when
Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the
weekend, and Ida is expected to be a major hurricane when it
approaches the northern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently
reported on Cayman Brac and a wind gust to 41 mph (67 km/h) has
been observed on Cayo Largo, Cuba, within the past hour or two.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Little Cayman
and Cayman Brac through early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions
are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba
in the Hurricane Warning area by later this afternoon and evening,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next couple of
hours on the Isle of Youth.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night
or Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica.
Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to
coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is
forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and
central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash,
urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman
Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching
portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grand Cayman. The Tropical Storm Warning remains
in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along
the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this
system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of
the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas
should also monitor the progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located by reconnaissance aircraft and weather radar on Grand
Cayman near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 81.7 West. Ida is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion
should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Ida will move away from the Cayman Islands this morning,
pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today,
and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight
and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern
Gulf coast on Sunday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60
mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts, and additional steady to rapid
strengthening is expected during the next few days. Ida is forecast
to become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and to
be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the
northern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Little Cayman
and Cayman Brac this morning, and are expected to reach the Isle of
Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night
or Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica.
Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to
coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is
forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and
central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash,
urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. Swells will begin
reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or
early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 270857
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Radar data from Grand Cayman and satellite imagery indicate that Ida
is becoming better organized just to the north of Grand Cayman. The
convection has become more concentrated near the center, and the
radar data is showing increasing curved banding. In addition, the
pressure at Grand Cayman fell to 1003 mb, showing that the central
pressure is lower than observed by the aircraft mission yesterday
afternoon. Based on a combination of the Grand Cayman observations
and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial
intensity is increased to 40 kt. Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Ida near 12Z.

After the earlier wobbling, Ida seems to have resumed a
northwestward motion of 320/13. A mid-level ridge centered off the
southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward through the
weekend. This feature should keep Ida moving on a general
northwestward track for the next 2 or 3 days, taking the core of
the system over western Cuba this afternoon or evening and then
across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Although some model timing differences remain, they are in fairly
good agreement that Ida will make landfall in Louisiana late Sunday
or early Monday. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the
east of the previous forecast through 48 h based on the initial
location. However, the 60 and 72 h positions are similar to the
previous forecast, and thus there is no significant change to the
forecast landfall area in Louisiana at this time. Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as impacts will
extend far from the center and the average 72-hour track error is
around 120 miles.

There continues to be some southwesterly shear affecting Ida due to
the storm's location between an upper-level trough to the west and
an upper-level anticyclone to the east. Some decrease in the shear
is expected during the next 24 h, and that, combined with a moist
environment and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast
track, should allow steady to rapid strengthening until the cyclone
makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. The new intensity
forecast is slightly stronger than the previous forecast, and it now
calls for Ida to reach a peak intensity of 100 kt before landfall.
It should be noted that this intensity is lower than that forecast
by the HMON model, the HCCA corrected consensus model, and the
Florida State Superensemble. After landfall, Ida should weaken as
it moves through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys.
Based on the available guidance, there remains higher-than-normal
confidence that a significant hurricane will approach and impact the
Gulf coast during the weekend and early next week.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the Cayman
Islands, and they are expected in portions of western Cuba and the
Isle of Youth today, where a dangerous storm surge is also possible
in areas of onshore flow. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash
flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge
inundation along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama,
where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Interests in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane-force winds
beginning Sunday along the portions of the coasts of Louisiana and
Mississippi, including metropolitan New Orleans, where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.

4. Ida is also expected to produce heavy rains across the central
Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi, Alabama,
as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley starting Sunday into Monday,
resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 20.0N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 21.5N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
24H 28/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.7N 90.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA STRENGTHENS AS THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 81.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings
will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast
later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the
progress of Ida.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located by weather radar on Grand Cayman near latitude 20.0 North,
longitude 81.4 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph
(24 km/h) and this general motion should continue over the
next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will
move away from the Cayman Islands this morning, pass near or over
the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today, and over the
southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday.
The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts, and additional steady to rapid strengthening is
expected during the next few days. Ida is forecast to become a
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two,
and to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches
the northern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
Grand Cayman Island recently reported a pressure of 1003 mb (29.62
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
this morning, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and
portions of western Cuba in the warning area later today. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the
northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica.
Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total
rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to
coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is
forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and
central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash,
urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. Swells will begin
reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or
early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270550
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...CENTER OF IDA PASSING THROUGH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 80.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located by the weather radar on Grand Cayman near latitude 19.4
North, longitude 80.9 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near
12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion should continue over the
next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass
through the Cayman Islands during the next few hours, pass near
or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today, and over
the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday.
The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ida is forecast to become a hurricane over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico in a day or two with additional strengthening
expected thereafter. Ida could be near major hurricane strength when
it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. An unofficial weather station on Grand Cayman
recently reported a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). A
weather station on Grand Cayman recently reported a pressure of
1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
this morning, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and
portions of western Cuba in the warning area later today. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the
northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ida is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches
across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands
and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall
amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Ida is likely to bring rainfall amounts of 8 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches along the
central Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday. This is likely to result in
flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding to the central
Gulf Coast.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. Swells will begin
reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or
early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 270322 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Corrected Key Message Number 4

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Ida this
evening and found maximum flight-level winds of 47 kt at 2500 ft.
This data along with numerous unflagged 35-kt SFMR winds supported
raising the intensity to 35 kt earlier this evening. Since the
aircraft departed Ida, there has been little change in the storm's
structure, so the initial intensity was held at 35 kt. Ida is an
asymmetric tropical storm with most of the deep convection and
stronger winds confined to the eastern half of the circulation. Both
the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Ida
Friday morning.

The storm has been wobbling around, but smoothing through the recent
erratic motion yields an initial motion estimate of 320/10 kt. A
mid-level ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to
shift westward on Friday and over the weekend. This feature should
keep Ida moving on a general northwestward track for the next 2 or 3
days, taking the core of the system over western Cuba Friday
afternoon or evening and then across the southern and central Gulf
of Mexico this weekend. Although some model timing differences
remain, they are in fairly good agreement that Ida will make
landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. The GFS and ECMWF
ensemble members basically span a similar region and are most
concentrated across the state of Louisiana. Users are reminded to
not focus on the exact forecast track as impacts will extend far
from the center and the average 72-hour track error is around 120
miles.

There is some southwesterly vertical wind shear affecting Ida at the
moment, which is the likely part of the reason the cloud pattern and
wind field are asymmetric. However, the global model show the
upper-level pattern becoming quite favorable late Friday and through
the weekend. These more conducive winds aloft combined with very
warm SSTs and abundant moisture is likely to result in steady or
rapid intensification until Ida makes landfall in the U.S. The
intensity guidance unanimously show Ida becoming a hurricane, but
there is notable spread in how strong the system will become. Given
the expected favorable environmental conditions for the storm, the
NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance,
in best agreement with the regional hurricane models. It is also
worth noting that even though the global models are not particularly
accurate in predicting tropical cyclone winds, the GFS and ECMWF
show the minimum pressure falling more than 35 mb from the current
conditions. Based on all of this information, there is
higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will be
approaching the Gulf coast late this weekend.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands tonight and in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth Friday, where a dangerous storm surge is also possible in
areas of onshore flow. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding
and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and
western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge
inundation along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama,
where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Interests in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane-force winds
beginning Sunday along the portions of the coasts of Louisiana and
Mississippi, including metropolitan New Orleans, where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday along
the central Gulf coast resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and
riverine flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 18.6N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 19.9N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 21.8N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 28/1200Z 23.8N 85.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 25.6N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 27.3N 89.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.6W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 31/0000Z 32.0N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 33.9N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 270251
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Ida this
evening and found maximum flight-level winds of 47 kt at 2500 ft.
This data along with numerous unflagged 35-kt SFMR winds supported
raising the intensity to 35 kt earlier this evening. Since the
aircraft departed Ida, there has been generally little change in the
storm's structure, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Ida
is an asymmetric tropical storm with most of the deep convection and
stronger winds confined to the eastern half of the circulation.
Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating
Ida Friday morning.

The storm has been wobbling around, but smoothing through the recent
erratic motion yields an initial motion estimate of 320/10 kt. A
mid-level ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to
shift westward on Friday and over the weekend. This feature should
keep Ida moving in a general northwestward motion for the next 2 or
3 days, taking the core of the system over western Cuba Friday
afternoon or evening and then across the southern and central Gulf
of Mexico this weekend. Although there is some timing differences
in the models, they are in fairly good agreement that Ida will make
landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. The GFS and ECMWF
ensemble members basically span a similar region and are most
concentrated across the state of Louisiana. Users are reminded to
not focus on the exact forecast track as impacts will extend far
from the center and the average 72-hour track error is around 120
miles.

There is some southwesterly vertical wind shear affecting Ida at the
moment, which is the likely part of the reason the cloud pattern and
wind field are asymmetric. However, the global model show the
upper-level pattern becoming quite favorable late Friday and through
the weekend. These more conducive winds aloft combined with very
warm SSTs and abundant moisture is likely to result in steady or
rapid intensification until Ida makes landfall in the U.S. The
intensity guidance unanimously show Ida becoming a hurricane, but
there is notable spread in how strong the system will become. Given
the expected favorable environmental conditions for the storm, the
NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance,
in best agreement with the regional hurricane models. It is also
worth noting that even though the global models are not particularly
accurate in predicting tropical cyclone winds, the GFS and ECMWF
show the minimum pressure falling more than 35 mb from the current
conditions. Based on all of this information, there is
higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will be
approaching the Gulf coast late in the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands tonight and in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth Friday, where a dangerous storm surge is also possible in
areas of onshore flow. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding
and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and
western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge
inundation along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama,
where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Interests in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane-force winds
beginning Sunday along the portions of the coasts of Louisiana and
Mississippi, including metropolitan New Orleans, where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday along
the central Gulf coast resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and
riverine flooding. Heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are likely
along the central Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 18.6N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 19.9N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 21.8N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 28/1200Z 23.8N 85.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 25.6N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 27.3N 89.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.6W 95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 31/0000Z 32.0N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 33.9N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 270251
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 80.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Sabine Pass to the
Alabama/Florida border including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron, Louisiana eastward
to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain,
Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Alabama/Florida border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 80.5 West. Ida is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (26 km/h) and this general
motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Ida will pass near or over the Cayman Islands
during the next few hours, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba
Friday, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday
night and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S.
northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Ida is forecast to become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico in a day or two with additional strengthening expected
thereafter. Ida could be near major hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of
western Cuba in the warning area on Friday. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf
coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ida is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches
across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands
and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall
amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Tropical Storm Ida is likely to bring rainfall amounts of 8 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches along the
central Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday. This is likely to result in
flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding to the central
Gulf Coast.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. Swells will begin
reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or
early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 270250
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON...LOUISIANA EASTWARD
TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND
MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 80.5W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 80.5W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 80.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.9N 82.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.8N 83.9W...NEAR CUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.8N 85.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.6N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.3N 89.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.6W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 32.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 33.9N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 80.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 262343
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 80.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Watches may be required for a
portion of the northern Gulf coast later tonight or Friday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 80.1 West. The storm is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Ida will pass near or over the Cayman Islands
tonight, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Friday, and over the
southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday.
The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ida is
forecast to become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba with
additional strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of
Mexico. Ida could be near major hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of
western Cuba in the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica.
Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Ida may begin to bring rainfall and potential flooding impacts to
the central Gulf Coast by early Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 262116
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the
depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum
sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 262051
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

The overall satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has
continued to gradually improve today. Visible imagery and very
recent observations from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the circulation has continued to become
better defined. In addition, the convective activity has become a
little better organized in a band around the northeastern and
eastern portions of the circulation, and the system is likely near
tropical storm strength. However, the initial intensity remains 30
kt pending the aircraft fully sampling the eastern portion of the
circulation.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 325/12 kt. The 1200
UTC dynamical model guidance continues to take the system
northwestward around the southwestern side of well-established
deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic. On the forecast track,
the system is expected to move over portions of western Cuba late
Friday, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Although
the track guidance envelope has tightened this cycle, increasing
confidence in the overall forecast scenario, some shifts in the
track are still likely until the system consolidates and becomes
better defined. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact
forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center, and the average NHC track forecast error
at day 3 is around 120 miles. The lastest NHC track forecast is
close to the previous official forecast, and lies between the TCVA
and HCCA consensus aids.

There is some evidence of some light to moderate southerly shear
over the system, but with the cyclone moving over the high ocean
heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea the shear
should not hinder intensification, with steady strengthening
anticipated during the next 12 to 24 hours. Once the system moves
over the Gulf of Mexico, it will be traversing a warm eddy, and this
feature, combined with a favorable upper-level wind pattern and a
moist atmosphere, is likely to result in steady to rapid
strengthening on Saturday and Saturday night. The NHC intensity
forecast again brings the system to near major hurricane strength
when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This is
supported by the HWRF and CTCI models, and the global model guidance
that has consistently showed significant deepening of the system
over the Gulf of Mexico over the past several model cycles.
Therefore, as mentioned this morning, there is higher-than-normal
confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over
the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands tonight and in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth Friday. Dangerous storm surge is possible Friday in portions
of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, in areas of onshore
flow.

2. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are
expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast at or
near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, where there is an
increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday,
especially along the coast of Louisiana. Storm Surge and Hurricane
watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later
tonight or Friday morning. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 18.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 19.7N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 23.7N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 28/1800Z 25.6N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 27.2N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 28.9N 90.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 31.9N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 34.6N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 262045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system. Watches may be required for a
portion of the northern Gulf coast later tonight or Friday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 79.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass near or
over the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba
Friday, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday
night and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S.
northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and
become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba or over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is likely
over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system could be near major
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman
Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and
portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches
across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands
and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall
amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

The depression may begin to bring rainfall and potential flooding
impacts to the central Gulf Coast by early Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affect Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 262044
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 79.8W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 79.8W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 79.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.7N 81.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.7N 84.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.6N 87.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.2N 88.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.9N 90.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.9N 91.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.6N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 79.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 261741
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 79.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression will pass near or over
the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba
Friday, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday
night and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S.
northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and
become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba or over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is likely
over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system could be near major
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman
Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and
portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches
across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, and the
northeast portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. These rainfall amounts
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Rainfall from this system is likely to begin impacting portions
of the central U.S. Gulf Coast by early Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 261456
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Early morning visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation
associated with the area of low pressure over west-central
Caribbean Sea has become better defined. There has also been an
increase in the organization of the associated convective activity,
and based on consensus Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB,
advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with the subjective
satellite estimates. The official reporting station in Kingston,
Jamaica, has reported sustained winds of 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt
during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system later this
afternoon to provide more information on the system's structure
and intensity.

The depression is moving northwestward or 325/11 kt, however the
initial motion is a bit more uncertain than normal since the low-
level center has only recently formed. The cyclone is forecast
to move steadily northwestward around the southwestern portion of a
deep-layer ridge centered over the western Atlantic. This track
should bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday,
over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and
Saturday, and have the center approach the northern Gulf coast on
Sunday. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, however
the average NHC track forecast error at day 4 is around 175 miles,
so users should not focus on the details of the long range track
forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system
consolidates and becomes better defined. The NHC track is near the
various consensus model aids and is in best agreement with the GFS
ensemble mean.

The depression will be moving over the high ocean heat content
waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next 24-36
hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a
moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight, and could approach hurricane strength as it passes near
or over western Cuba. Once the system moves into the Gulf of
Mexico, conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
strengthening, and rapid intensification is explicitly shown in
the NHC forecast between 48 and 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast
brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches
the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This forecast is supported by the
HWRF and CTCI models, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global model
guidance, which all significantly deepen the cyclone over the Gulf
of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence
that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf
this weekend.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Cayman
Islands tonight and western Cuba Friday and Friday night, with
dangerous storm surge possible in portions of western Cuba,
including the Isle of Youth, in areas of onshore flow.

2. The system is expected to produce life-threatening heavy rains,
flash flooding and mudslides across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth and northeastern portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

3. This system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast at or
near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, although the forecast
uncertainty is larger than usual since the system is just forming.
There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday along
the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the upper
Texas coast, with the greatest risk along the coast of Louisiana.
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this
system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 261445
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 79.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Cayman Islands, including Grand Cayman, Little
Cayman, and Cayman Brac.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern
Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 79.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h),
and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass near
of over the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and Western
Cuba Friday, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of
Mexico Friday night and Saturday. The system is forecast to
approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and
become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba or over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is likely
over the Gulf of Mexico and the system could be near major
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
flow along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to
the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman
Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and
portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches
across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth and the northeast
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. These rainfall amounts may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Rainfall from this system is likely to begin impacting portions
of the central U.S. Gulf Coast by early Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 261444
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE
CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 79.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W...OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 79.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>