Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KATE-21
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 012042
TCDAT5

Remnants Of Kate Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021

Kate's structure this afternoon has deteriorated further. While
occasional bursts of deep convection are still occuring to the south
of a broad area of low-level cyclonic rotation, this activity lacks
much organization. Recent visible satellite imagery also suggests
that the low-level circulation is in the process of opening up into
a trough, with little if any northerly cloud motions being observed
to the west of the estimated center. In addition, I have been
fortunate to receive some in-situ data from the NASA-DC8 aircraft
that earlier preformed a research mission into Kate. Dropsonde data
launched near the center indicated that the surface pressure was
near 1012 mb, which is only a few millibars lower than the
environmental ambient pressure. The dropsondes launched west of the
center also failed to find any northerly surface winds. The
combination of these data suggest that Kate's center is losing
definition and no longer possesses a well-defined circulation.
Therefore, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical
cyclone, and this will be the final advisory. Maximum sustained
winds have also been lowered to 25-kt based on the surface winds
from dropsonde data provided by the DC8 aircraft to the east of the
center.

The remnants of Kate have accelerated to the north-northwest today
with the estimated motion at 340/13 kt, likely as the low-level
vorticity maxima has become fully decoupled from the mid-level
vortex located well to the south and east. This motion should
continue until Kate completely fades away while embedded in
the synoptic environment near a low-level subtropical ridge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 28.5N 52.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 012040
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Kate Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021

...KATE NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 52.9W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Kate were located near
latitude 28.5 North, longitude 52.9 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 012040
TCMAT5

REMNANTS OF KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 52.9W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 52.9W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 52.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 52.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 012038
TCMAT5

REMNANTS OF KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 52.9W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 52.9W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 52.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 52.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 38.1N 81.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2021 38.1N 81.3W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2021 39.5N 76.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2021 42.2N 69.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2021 44.8N 65.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2021 47.2N 63.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2021 48.6N 62.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2021 48.9N 63.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2021 47.0N 63.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 80.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2021 12.7N 80.6W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 26.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2021 12.4N 26.7W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2021 12.5N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2021 12.6N 34.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2021 13.4N 38.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2021 14.0N 41.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2021 15.2N 44.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2021 16.6N 47.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2021 18.8N 50.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2021 20.6N 52.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2021 22.5N 54.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2021 24.2N 56.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2021 25.9N 57.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2021 28.0N 58.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 52.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2021 26.7N 52.3W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 16.3N 101.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2021 16.3N 101.1W WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2021 16.1N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011602

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 011459
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021

It has been difficult to pinpoint where the low-level circulation of
Kate is this morning. After last night's diurnal convective maximum,
the remaining convection has taken on a very disorganized structure,
with a mid-level vortex being left behind to the south, while
deeper, but more outflow driven convection is racing off to the
north, ahead of the estimated low-level center position. A recently
received 1211 UTC ASCAT-A pass indicated that Kate's low-level
circulation is still closed, but just barely. The scatterometer wind
data supports maintaining the current intensity at 30-kt, which also
agrees with the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.

The estimated motion is continuing off to the north-northwest, at
340/9 kt. Kate appears to now be primarily steered by the low-level
flow around a subtropical ridge located to its east. A general
north-northwest motion is expected to continue today, followed by a
turn to the north and north-northeast around the periphery of this
ridge. The latest NHC track guidance has been adjusted a bit right
of the previous track, shifting towards the latest consensus
guidance (TVCN) that can still track the cyclone beyond 24 hours.

A 0958 UTC SSMIS microwave pass suggested that the better organized
structure observed last night has decayed, with the low- and
mid-level centers quite misaligned. Vertical wind shear diagnosed by
SHIPS is now between 15-20 kt out of the north. This shear is likely
contributing to the vortex tilt, while also helping to import very
dry mid-level air, preventing Kate's convective activity from
organizing. The bulk of the intensity guidance is in agreement that
gradual spin down of the low-level circulation will occur over the
next several days, with the deterministic ECMWF model suggesting
Kate could open up to a trough as soon as tomorrow. The latest NHC
intensity forecast makes Kate a remnant low in 36 hours, with
dissipation after 48 hours. However, given the current structure,
this could occur sooner than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 26.8N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 27.9N 52.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 29.6N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 31.1N 53.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/1200Z 32.4N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021

...STRUGGLING KATE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 52.3W
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate
was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 52.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or
so. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on
Thursday before the cyclone dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next several days.
Kate is expected to become a remnant low tomorrow, and dissipate
entirely on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 011454
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 52.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 52.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 51.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.9N 52.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.6N 53.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.1N 53.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.4N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 52.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010833
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021

After the earlier convective hiatus, a concentrated area of
thunderstorm activity containing numerous lightning strikes has
developed over and to the east of the low-level center. In
addition, upper-level outflow has been expanding to the west, an
indication that the hostile shear conditions that have been
plaguing the cyclone the past few days has finally waned. ASCAT
data around 0000-0100Z showed peak winds near 25 kt; however, the
recent sharp increase in deep convection along with a consensus
Dvorak subjective intensity of T2.0/30 kt supports increasing the
intensity to 30 kt. The 30-kt advisory intensity is also supported
by UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates of T2.1/31 kt from ADT
and 39 kt from SATCON.

The initial motion estimate is 340/08 kt. Kate is moving
north-northwestward between a small mid- to upper-level low to the
south of the cyclone and deep-layer ridge located to the north and
east of the system. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected
later today, followed by a turn back toward the north on Thursday as
Kate rounds the western periphery of the ridge. By Friday,
recurvature toward the north-northeast and northeast into the
mid-latitude westerlies is forecast when the cyclone will be lifted
out by an eastward-moving deep-layer trough currently crossing the
western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a
little to the left of the previous advisory track, and closely
follows the tightly packed consensus track forecast models TVCA and
NOAA-HCCA.

A 0505 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass revealed that Kate's compact
circulation had tightened up considerably since the earlier 0100 UTC
ASCAT wind data, which shows a broad and elongated inner-core wind
field. Also, Kate is currently passing between two small upper-level
lows to the north and south of the cyclone, which is aiding the
upper-level divergence across the system, albeit somewhat
constrained due to the short distance of only about 300 nmi between
the two upper lows. Given the locally enhanced outflow and the
recent increase in deep convection, it s not out of the question
that Kate could restrengthen back into a low-end tropical storm
during the next 24 hours or so. However, the entrainment of dry
mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent should
prevent any significant or rapid restrengthening from occuring. by
48 hours, moderate northerly shear and even drier mid-level air
should cause convection weaken, resulting in a gradual spin down of
the circulation and eventual dissipation by 72 hours. The new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to but slightly lower than the
consensus intensity models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS
statistical-dynamical intensity model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 25.7N 51.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 30.3N 53.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 31.9N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 03/1800Z 33.5N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010833
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021

...TENACIOUS COMPACT KATE STILL HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 51.7W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate
was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 51.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through this
morning, followed by a turn toward the northwest by this afternoon.
A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast late
Thursday and early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Kate is forecast to become
a remnant low on Thursday, with the remnant low dissipating on
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010832
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.7W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.7W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 51.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.5N 53.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.3N 53.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 31.9N 53.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 33.5N 53.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 51.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010233
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021

Some bursts of convection have been forming within Kate's small
circulation during the past several hours, but none of it has any
real significant organization. In addition, the low clouds appear
to be losing definition, and a very-recent ASCAT-B pass showed that
the maximum winds are now only about 25 kt. It's going to be
difficult for Kate to make much of a comeback, if at all. Moderate
northerly shear, dry mid-level air, upper-level convergence, and an
increasingly anticyclonic low-level environment are likely to cause
the circulation to spin down further and make it hard for deep
convection to persist. Therefore, the NHC official forecast now
calls for additional weakening, with Kate likely becoming a remnant
low by 36 hours (if not sooner) and dissipating by 72 hours. This
scenario is closest to the GFS, HWRF, and HMON solutions.

Located on the southwestern periphery of a low-level area of high
pressure, Kate is moving toward the north-northwest (345/9 kt).
The depression is forecast to turn toward the northwest by morning,
but then recurve around the high toward the north and
north-northeast in a couple of days. The NHC track forecast remains
close to the consensus aids and is generally just an update from the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 25.4N 51.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 26.4N 52.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 27.9N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 29.8N 53.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0000Z 31.6N 54.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 03/1200Z 33.1N 53.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021

...KATE UNLIKELY TO LAST FOR ANY MORE THAN ANOTHER DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 51.3W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate
was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 51.3 West. Kate is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday morning. A
turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast late Thursday
and early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, with Kate forecast
to become a remnant low by early Thursday. The remnant low is
expected to dissipate on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010232
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 51.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 51.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 51.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 52.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.9N 53.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.8N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.6N 54.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 33.1N 53.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 51.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 312031
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021

Kate continues to produce small, sporadic bursts of convection near
and to the east of its partially exposed low-level center this
afternoon. The cyclone has moved north of the subtropical jet stream
that it has been centered under for the past couple of days, so the
mid- to upper-level vertical wind shear is beginning to diminish.
Unfortunately, all three ASCAT passes this morning missed Kate's
small circulation. The current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB support maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt for this
advisory.

The cyclone is moving a little faster to the north, or 360/6 kt. The
track forecast reasoning is largely unchanged. Kate is expected to
begin moving north-northwestward tonight as a mid-level ridge builds
to the east and northeast of the cyclone. This general motion should
continue through early Thursday, before an approaching mid- to
upper-level trough begins steering Kate more northward through
Friday. The official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous one and lies near the center of the guidance envelope,
remaining close to the multi-model consensus aids.

The intensity forecast is a bit more challenging, with mixed signals
noted from the various intensity models. On the one hand, satellite
imagery indicates the vertical wind shear is obviously diminishing
over Kate, and the cyclone is forecast to move over SSTs of around
28.5 deg C for the next couple of days. However, the cyclone remains
embedded within a dry mid-level environment that is clearly making
it difficult for Kate to produce organized convection. The official
NHC intensity forecast still shows no explicit intensity change and
remains closest to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and
IVDR aids. However, some short-term intensity fluctuations are
certainly possible, which is notable since Kate's intensity is
hovering around the tropical depression/storm threshold. By
Thursday, Kate will be moving into an even drier, more subsident
environment that will make it even more difficult to sustain deep
convection. Thus, the NHC forecast shows Kate becoming a remnant low
completely devoid of convection by Friday, with dissipation shortly
thereafter ahead of an approaching frontal system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 24.6N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 25.5N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 28.6N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 30.3N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 32.0N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 33.7N 53.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 312031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021

...KATE STILL A POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 50.9W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 50.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue
through early Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north on
Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 312031
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 50.9W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 50.9W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 50.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.6N 53.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.3N 54.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N 54.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 33.7N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 50.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 311601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 88.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2021 0 34.2N 88.5W 998 28
0000UTC 01.09.2021 12 35.3N 85.5W 999 23
1200UTC 01.09.2021 24 38.2N 81.1W 998 26
0000UTC 02.09.2021 36 39.8N 77.1W 995 33
1200UTC 02.09.2021 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 19.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2021 0 10.1N 19.1W 1009 25
0000UTC 01.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 50.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2021 0 23.5N 50.7W 1011 23
0000UTC 01.09.2021 12 24.9N 51.3W 1014 22
1200UTC 01.09.2021 24 26.4N 52.1W 1015 23
0000UTC 02.09.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.4N 29.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2021 36 11.9N 31.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 02.09.2021 48 13.0N 35.6W 1003 39
0000UTC 03.09.2021 60 12.8N 39.9W 1000 40
1200UTC 03.09.2021 72 13.7N 43.6W 995 48
0000UTC 04.09.2021 84 15.0N 46.9W 988 52
1200UTC 04.09.2021 96 16.6N 49.7W 980 54
0000UTC 05.09.2021 108 18.6N 52.0W 974 55
1200UTC 05.09.2021 120 20.6N 54.6W 967 61
0000UTC 06.09.2021 132 22.8N 57.0W 959 71
1200UTC 06.09.2021 144 24.7N 59.0W 961 69


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311601

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 311601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 88.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2021 34.2N 88.5W MODERATE
00UTC 01.09.2021 35.3N 85.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2021 38.2N 81.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2021 39.8N 77.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 19.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2021 10.1N 19.1W WEAK
00UTC 01.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 50.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2021 23.5N 50.7W WEAK
00UTC 01.09.2021 24.9N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2021 26.4N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.4N 29.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2021 11.9N 31.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2021 13.0N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2021 12.8N 39.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2021 13.7N 43.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2021 15.0N 46.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2021 16.6N 49.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2021 18.6N 52.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2021 20.6N 54.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2021 22.8N 57.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2021 24.7N 59.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311601

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 311445
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021

Strong west-northwesterly shear continues to displace the limited
convective activity associated with Kate well to the east of its
center, which is fully exposed and becoming less well-defined in
visible satellite imagery. A small burst of deep convection from
earlier this morning appears to be waning, as infrared cloud top
temperatures are warming to the east of Kate's center. Consensus
T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, in addition to
the latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggest that Kate is
now likely a tropical depression. Therefore, the initial intensity
is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory.

Kate's center has jogged a little east of due north this morning,
and its initial estimated 12-h motion is northward, or 010/4 kt. A
mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast and east of
Kate later today through Wednesday, which should steer the cyclone
more north-northwestward through midweek. Then, Kate should turn
toward the north on Thursday night and early Friday within the flow
associated with a mid- to upper-level trough that will be moving
across the western Atlantic. The official NHC forecast track is very
similar to the previous one, and it lies near the reliable consensus
aids TVCA and HCCA. The only minor track adjustment has Kate turning
a little earlier and faster toward the north late this week.

Even though the vertical shear is expected to diminish over Kate
during the next 12-24 h, the cyclone remains embedded within a
relatively dry mid-level environment. This will make it difficult
for Kate to sustain enough organized convection to strengthen much.
In fact, numerous models including the GFS, HWRF, and HMON show the
low weakening in the coming days, as the model simulated satellite
imagery suggests only sporadic bursts of convection will occur even
after the shear subsides. However, the possibility of Kate briefly
re-intensifying into a weak tropical storm cannot be completely
ruled out, since the cyclone will remain over warm SSTs around 28
deg C for at least the next couple of days. The official NHC
intensity forecast remains consistent with the consensus aids IVCN
and HCCA and shows no explicit change in intensity, although some
fluctuation is possible. If Kate survives this week, the global
models indicate that it will likely open up into a trough by
Saturday morning, shortly before being absorbed by an approaching
frontal system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 23.5N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 25.7N 51.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 27.3N 52.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 29.0N 53.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 30.7N 54.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 32.5N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 311445
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED KATE NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 50.8W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate
was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 50.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through today. A north-northwestward
motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 311444
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
1500 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 50.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 50.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 50.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.3N 51.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.7N 51.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.3N 52.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.0N 53.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.7N 54.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.5N 53.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 50.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 310844
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021

Kate remains a strongly sheared tropical storm with the associated
deep convection occurring in intermittent bursts in the eastern
semicircle of the cyclone, owing to 850-200-mb west-northwesterly
vertical wind shear of at least 30 kt. The most recent Dvorak
satellite current intensity (CI) estimates remain at 35 kt, and
that is the initial intensity set for this advisory. This intensity
is consistent with an earlier SSMI-S passive microwave satellite
overpass that showed wind speeds of 30-35 kt on the west side of
Kate where no convection/rain was present.

The initial motion estimate is 360/04 kt. Kate's forward motion has
slowed to as low 2 kt during the psst 6 hours, likely due to the
hindering effects of the west-northwesterly shear direction and weak
steering currents since Kate has recently moved into a weakness in
the low- mid-level subtropical ridge. However, the latest NHC track
guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will begin moving
northward at a slightly faster forward speed as Kate moves through
a break in the ridge. In about 24 hours, a mid-level ridge to the
northeast and east of Kate is forecast to build westward, forcing
the cyclone on a more northwestward trajectory that should continue
through Thursday. By Friday, a mid- to upper-level trough moving
eastward over the western Atlantic is forecast to gradually lift out
Kate toward the north, and accelerate the cyclone toward the
northeast on Saturday. The new NHC forecast track is similar to but
slightly east or right of the previous advisory track, and lies near
the left edge of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus
track-model envelope.

The intensity forecast is not as straightforward as the track
forecast. The aforementioned hostile shear conditions are predicted
by the regional and global models, especially the ECMWF model, to
gradually abate over the next 18-24 hours, with the magnitude of the
shear to decrease to less than 10 kt by 24-36 hours when Kate will
be moving over 28.5 deg C water temperatures. If Kate can survive
the next 18 hours or so, which is possible since the 850-300-mb
shear is much less at only 10-15 kt, then some restrengthening could
occur, especially in the 24-48-hour period when the cyclone will be
located underneath a small upper-level anticyclone. Countering that,
however, is the somewhat dry air (near-50-percent humidity) in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere that could limit the formation of
inner-core convection. Thus for now, the new official intensity
forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, which shows Kate
remaining as a low-end tropical storm through the 96-hour period.
This scenario is consistent with the IVCN and HCCA intensity
consensus models. On day 5, Kate is forecast to dissipate when the
cyclone or its remnants are expected to merge with an extratropical
low and associated frontal system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 23.0N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 23.9N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 25.2N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 26.6N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 28.3N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 29.9N 54.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 31.5N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 310838
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED KATE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 50.9W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 50.9 West. Kate is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through today. A northwestward motion is
forecast to begin tonight and continue into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 310836
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
0900 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 50.9W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 50.9W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.9N 50.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.2N 51.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.6N 52.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.3N 53.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.9N 54.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 31.5N 54.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 50.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 310233
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

Kate is a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical cyclone.
Satellite images show an exposed low-level center with a few patches
of deep convection on the system's east side. The latest Dvorak
classifications range from 25-35 kt, and the initial intensity is
held at a possibly generous 35 kt for this advisory. Unfortunately,
ASCAT missed the circulation this evening.

Strong west-northwesterly shear of about 30 kt is expected to
persist into early Tuesday, and that could cause some weakening in
the short term. Although the shear is expected to lessen after
that, Kate will be moving into a drier and more stable airmass. None
of the intensity models show much strengthening, and the global
models suggest that Kate could dissipate sometime within the next
couple of days. The official forecast is again nudged downward and
generally shows little change in strength during the next 4 days.
Kate, or its remnants, are likely to merge with an extratropical low
and associated front in 4 to 5 days.

The tropical storm has moved little during the past few hours, but a
12-hour motion yields an estimate of 360/5 kt. The storm is moving
toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a deep-layer low over the
North Atlantic, and that motion should continue into Tuesday. By
Wednesday, mid-level ridging building to the northeast of the system
should cause it to turn northwestward. However, another trough
moving eastward over the western Atlantic is expected to cause Kate
to turn northward again toward the end of the week. The NHC track
forecast follows the various consensus aids and is similar to the
previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 22.7N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 23.6N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 24.8N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.1N 51.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 27.6N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 29.1N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 30.4N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 33.9N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 310232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

...KATE REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 50.9 West. Kate is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is
expected into Tuesday. A northwestward motion is forecast late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 310232
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
0300 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.6N 50.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.8N 50.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.1N 51.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.6N 52.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.1N 54.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.4N 54.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 33.9N 54.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 50.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 302035
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

The low-level center of Kate is exposed in visible satellite imagery
this afternoon. Its deep convection collapsed late this morning, and
the sheared tropical cyclone is now only producing a small area of
convection over 60 n mi east of its center. A partial 1321 UTC
ASCAT-B pass still showed numerous 30-kt wind vectors in the eastern
semicircle, even with little to no active convection. The initial
intensity is conservatively lowered to 35 kt for this advisory.

The subtropical jet stream across the central Atlantic will continue
to impart strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear on Kate
during the next day or so. If the struggling tropical cyclone can
survive these hostile conditions, some modest strengthening could
occur later this week over warm SSTs of 28 deg C or so. However, the
lack of mid-level moisture in the surrounding environment may limit
convective development even under these more favorable conditions,
and there is no guarantee that Kate will survive that long. In fact,
simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kate
may continue to only produce sporadic bursts of convection over the
next couple of days, which jeopardizes its chances of surviving
through the week. The official NHC intensity forecast has been
adjusted downward based on the latest guidance trends and the
uncertainties discussed above. Minor fluctuations in intensity could
occur over the next 24-36 h as convective pulsing causes the
cyclone's intensity to hover around tropical-storm-force strength.

Kate is moving a little faster toward the north, or 355/9 kt, within
a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A northward motion is expected
to continue through early Tuesday. The subtropical ridge is expected
to become reestablished over the central Atlantic Tuesday night into
Wednesday, which should turn Kate toward the northwest through
midweek. Thereafter, Kate is forecast to accelerate northward or
north-northeastward ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough that
will move across the western Atlantic late this week. Assuming Kate
is still around by day 5, the cyclone is forecast to become absorbed
by a larger extratropical low near Atlantic Canada.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 22.7N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 23.7N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 24.7N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 25.8N 51.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 27.0N 52.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 28.4N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 30.1N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 34.5N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 302034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

...KATE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 50.9 West. Kate is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with
a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through early
Tuesday. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are forecast during
the next couple of days. Some slow strengthening is possible by
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center in the eastern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 302034
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.7N 50.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.7N 50.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.8N 51.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.0N 52.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.4N 53.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.1N 54.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 34.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 50.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 301455
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

Although strong upper-level westerly shear continues to plague the
cyclone, its satellite presentation improved early this morning as
its center moved closer to the edge of the convective cloud mass to
its east. An ASCAT-A pass from 1100 UTC revealed an area of 30 to
40-kt winds in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, with some
slightly stronger winds possibly rain contaminated underneath the
deep convection. Additionally, UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimates have
risen to around 40 kt within the past few hours, and TAFB gave a
T2.5/35 kt subjective Dvorak classification at 12 UTC. These data
support upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Kate. Its initial
intensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory, although that could be
a bit generous given recent satellite trends.

A weakness in the subtropical ridge is allowing Kate to move just
west of due north, or 355/7 kt. This general motion should continue
for the next day or so before the subtropical ridge becomes
reestablished over the central Atlantic Ocean. Thereafter, the
cyclone should move northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday along
the southwestern periphery of the ridge. By Friday, an approaching
deep-layer trough should cause the cyclone to accelerate northward
or north-northeastward through the rest of the forecast period. The
track guidance has shifted a little left of the previous NHC track,
and so the official forecast has been adjusted in that direction to
bring it closer to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.

The near-term intensity forecast is tricky, as the subtropical jet
stream will maintain strong west-northwesterly shear over Kate
during the next 24 to 36 h. In fact, recent satellite imagery of the
cyclone shows the center is already more exposed than earlier this
morning as the convection is waning. Kate is likely to continue
exhibiting a bursting convective pattern over the next couple of
days, which would likely result in some intensity fluctuations that
hover around the tropical-storm-force threshold. The official NHC
intensity forecast shows Kate as a 35-kt tropical storm during the
first 36 h of the forecast. If Kate survives the hostile shear
conditions, some modest intensification will be possible while the
cyclone remains over 28 deg C waters. However, Kate will encounter a
drier mid-level environment as it gains latitude, so significant
strengthening does not appear likely at this time. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one beyond 48 h, as it
shows only modest strengthening with time. By day 5, the global
models suggest that Kate could be becoming absorbed by a larger
extratropical low expected to form and deepen near Atlantic Canada.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 21.5N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 22.3N 50.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 23.3N 50.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 24.3N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 25.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 26.9N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 28.4N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 37.0N 53.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 301453
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KATE...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 50.9W
ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kate was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 50.9 West. Kate is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general northward
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn
to the northwest on Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible during the next couple of days. Some slow
strengthening is forecast by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center in the eastern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 301453
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
1500 UTC MON AUG 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 50.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 50.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 50.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.3N 50.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.3N 50.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.3N 50.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.9N 52.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.4N 54.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.0N 53.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 50.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 301329
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Kate Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
930 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the depression has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Kate. Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

The intensity forecast in the upcoming 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC)
advisory will be updated to reflect the change in the strength of
the system.


SUMMARY OF 930 AM AST...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 50.9W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 300858
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

The deep convection with Tropical Depression Ten is in a sheared
bursting pattern this morning, associated with overshooting cloud
top temperatures below -80 C. A 0518 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass did
show a bit of banding associated with this activity on the 37 GHz
low-level channel. However, Proxy-Vis satellite imagery indicates
this convective activity remains located downshear of the low-level
center thanks to very strong 30-50 kt northwesterly flow associated
with a subtropical jet at 200 mb. The latest round of subjective
Dvorak estimates were 25 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB. Taking a
blend of these estimates and the earlier ASCAT wind data supports
keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression has resumed a northward motion this morning, with the
latest estimate at 360 degrees at 7 kt. A deep-layer trough passing
by well to the north is continuing to provide a weakness in the
subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to escape northward. The
system could even move a bit east of due north over the next 24-36
hours if down-shear convective bursts help to drag the low-level
center a bit right of the steering flow. After 36 hours, the
deep-layer trough moves eastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to
build back in. The net result is that the depression should turn
leftward and begin a more northwestward motion by the latter part of
this week. The latest track guidance has once again made another
westward shift this cycle after 36 hours, and the NHC track
forecast has been nudged in that direction as well. However, the
latest track is still not as far west as the GFS AND ECMWF models, and
further westward adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts.

Strong upper-level flow is the primary hindrance for the depression
currently. In fact, both GFS AND ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the
vertical wind shear remaining above 30 kt for the next 24 hours as
the cyclone moves through the core of a subtropical jet streak.
Interestingly, this shearing flow seems to be mostly based in the
upper-levels, with much lower mid-level shear diagnosed by UW-CIMSS.
This lower mid-level shear may help explain why deep-convection has
not yet been completely stripped away from the low-level center.
After 36 hours, most of the guidance agrees that an upper-level low
will cut off to the southwest of the depression, providing a more
favorable upper-level environment over the system. However, it
remains unclear what will be left of the depression by that time,
and the latest 00z ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON runs suggest the vortex
will be too weak and diffuse to take advantage of the more favorable
conditions. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast will maintain
the current intensity through 48 hours, with only modest
intensification beginning after that time assuming the circulation
is coherent enough to take advantage of the more favorable
environment. The latest intensity forecast is just a bit lower than
the previous forecast, and is also lower than the HCCA and IVCN
consensus aids. It remains distinctly possible that the depression
could become a remnant low if its convection is completely stripped
away.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 20.8N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 21.7N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 22.6N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 23.6N 50.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 24.8N 50.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 26.1N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 27.6N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 30.8N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 300854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY
UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 50.6W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 50.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
general northward motion is forecast to continue through Monday
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days. Slow strengthening is forecast to begin in the latter part
of this week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 300853
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
0900 UTC MON AUG 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 50.6W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 50.6W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 50.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.7N 50.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.6N 50.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.6N 50.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.8N 50.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.1N 51.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.6N 53.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 30.8N 55.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 50.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 300237
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

The depression is looking poorly organized this evening, with the
low-level center exposed for the past several hours, and only a
small area of convection located over 50 n mi east of the center.
Strong west-northwesterly shear on the order of 20 to 30 kt due to a
nearby subtropical jet stream has been impacting the cyclone since
earlier today. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds of 29 kt, so
the initial advisory intensity is being kept at 30 kt. The shear is
forecast to increase even more later tonight and persist through
Monday night. If the depression survives through that time period,
then it may have an opportunity to strengthen in a few days when the
cyclone moves north of the jet stream. The official NHC intensity
forecast was little changed from the previous one, and is close to
the HCCA and IVCN consensus.

The lack of deep convection has likely been the cause of a wobble to
the northwest over the past several hours, as the shallow depression
has been steered primarily the low-level trade wind flow. The
overall motion over the past 12 h is 350/7 kt. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should induce a
generally northward motion over the next few days. By the middle of
this week, the weakness in the ridge is forecast to fill in, and
force the cyclone on more of a northwestward path. The guidance
continues to shift to the west with their solutions, as they come
into better agreement on the strength of the ridge, and the NHC
foreast has followed suit with a shift to the west. However, the
latest NHC track forecast remains to the east of all of the
consensus track guidance. Therefore, further future adjustments to
the track may be necessary.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 20.1N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 21.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 22.4N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 25.6N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 27.0N 51.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 30.0N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 34.0N 53.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 300236
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BLASTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 50.6W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 50.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
general northward motion is forecast to continue for the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Slow strengthening is forecast to begin by midweek.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 300236
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 50.6W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 50.6W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 50.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.1N 50.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.4N 50.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.5N 50.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.6N 51.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.0N 51.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.0N 53.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 34.0N 53.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 50.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 292033
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

The depression's center has again scooted northwestward away from
the associated deep convection due to continuing 20-25 kt of
northwesterly shear. Since there has been no appreciable change to
the various intensity estimates from this morning, the estimated
maximum winds remain 30 kt for this advisory. The source of the
shear can be seen in water vapor imagery, with high-level clouds
emanating from the eastern Caribbean Sea and blowing directly into
the depression. In fact, model guidance is now indicating that the
shear may increase as high as 35-40 kt during the next 24 hours
while the depression moves beneath the subtropical jet stream, and
the NHC intensity forecast therefore now shows no intensity change
through 36 hours. By 48 hours, the system should have moved north
of the subtropical jet, and lower shear and relatively warm waters
should finally allow for some strengthening. During the latter
part of the forecast period, the NHC intensity forecast is very
close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Much of this forecast
is contingent on the depression actually surviving the next 24-36
hours, however.

The depression is moving just west of due north (355/10 kt), but
the system is expected to slow down and turn slightly toward the
north-northeast within 24 hours, ahead of the tail end of a
deep-layer trough which extends over much of the central Atlantic.
Beginning in about 48 hours, a piece of the east Atlantic
subtropical ridge is forecast to pinch off and block the
depression, causing it to turn back to the north and
north-northwest through the end of the 5-day forecast period. This
developing high looks like it will be a little stronger than
previously thought, and most of the models have shifted
significantly westward after 48 hours. The new NHC track forecast
has been adjusted westward as well, but it is not as far west as
the deterministic models and the consensus aids. Therefore,
additional adjustment may be required in subsequent advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 19.7N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 20.7N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 22.1N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 23.3N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 24.5N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 25.8N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 27.4N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 30.4N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 33.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 292033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 PM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 50.4W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 50.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
general northward motion at a slower forward speed, with some
wobbles to the east and west, is expected through Wednesday,
keeping the depression over the central Atlantic during the
upcoming week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. The depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday or
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 292032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 50.4W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 50.4W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 50.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 50.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.1N 49.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.3N 49.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.5N 49.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.8N 49.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.4N 50.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.4N 51.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 33.7N 52.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 50.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 291433
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

The center of the depression has become a little more exposed to the
northwest of the deep convection during the past few hours as a
result of continued 25-30 kt of northwesterly shear. The latest
Dvorak estimates are T2.5 from TAFB and T1.0/2.0 from SAB, so the
initial intensity remains 30 kt. The system is expected to continue
moving through a region of strong northwesterly to westerly shear
for the next 2 days or so, and little to no strengthening is
anticipated during that time. However, if the convection is able
to remain fairly close to the center, then the system could eke
into tropical storm status at any time. After 48 hours, a
significant decrease in shear, along with warm waters of 27-28
degrees Celsius, should allow for a steady strengthening trend. The
NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward on days 3 through 5,
although much of the guidance is even higher, suggesting that
further adjustments could be required in subsequent advisories.

The depression is moving northward (350/10 kt) through a break in
the ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending south of
Newfoundland over the central Atlantic. This trough, along with a
strengthening mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic on days 3-5,
are expected to keep the cyclone on a curvy northward track during
the entire forecast period. There is high confidence in the track
forecast given low spread among the track models, and the NHC
official forecast generally lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 18.8N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 20.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 21.4N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 22.7N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 24.1N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 25.6N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 27.4N 49.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 30.6N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 33.5N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 291432
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 50.2W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 50.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
motion toward the north or north-northeast at a slower forward
speed is expected through Wednesday, keeping the depression over
the central Atlantic during the upcoming week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, but the depression could become a tropical storm by Tuesday
or Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 291432
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 50.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 50.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 50.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 50.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 50.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.7N 49.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.1N 49.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.6N 49.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.4N 49.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.6N 50.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 33.5N 50.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 50.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 290856
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

Tropical Depression Ten continues to struggle against 25-30 kt of
northwesterly vertical wind shear, as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS
guidance. Convection has thus remained displaced primarily to the
southeast, though with some recent cells trying to develop closer to
the center. The most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates were
T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt with the objective ADT estimate at T2.3/33
kt. Given the disorganized nature of the current structure on IR
satellite, I have elected to stay on the conservative side of these
estimates and hold the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression continues to move toward the north at 360/9 kt. A
large weakness in the mid-level ridging, due to a strong
upper-tropospheric trough, will allow the depression to continue
moving northward in the short-term, though there may be some
occasional eastward bends as downshear convection tugs at the
low-level vortex of the system. However by 72 h, some mid-level
ridging is expected to build back in, allowing the track to shift a
bit more leftward to the north-northwest after this point. The track
guidance has not shifted much over the forecast period, and the
latest NHC track forecast is nearly on top of the previous one,
continuing to favor a blend of the the consensus aids (HCCA, TVCN).

The poor current structure of the depression, under high shear
importing dry air, argues against much short term intensification.
However, the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance still suggests a brief respite in
the shear between 12-24 hours. For this reason, the NHC intensity
forecast still shows some slight strengthening to a tropical storm
in 24 hours. Another round of 25-30 kt of vertical wind shear
between 24-48 hours is then expected to keep the system in check,
and it remains possible that the cyclone could degenerate to a
remnant low over this time period. However, by 72 hours, the
upper-level trough shearing the system is forecast to cut-off to the
southwest, and this will shift the upper-level flow from
northwesterly to southeasterly, which should provide a more
favorable environment for strengthening. Thus, gradual
strengthening is shown beginning in 72 hours extending through the
end of the forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is quite
similar to the previous forecast, favoring the more pessimistic
ECMWF guidance versus the more aggressive GFS and regional hurricane
models. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the latter portion of
this forecast since it is unclear how much of the cyclone will
survive the current unfavorable environment during the next 2-3
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.3N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.4N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 19.9N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 21.4N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 22.7N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 24.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 25.6N 49.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 29.0N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 290854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

...DEPRESSION BATTLING STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS...
...COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY OR TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 49.8W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 49.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Little
change in strength is expected thereafter through early this week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 290852
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 49.8W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 49.8W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 49.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.4N 49.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.9N 49.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.4N 49.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.7N 48.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.0N 48.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 49.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 49.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 290235
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

The center of the tropical depression remained exposed for much of
the evening, though in the past hour or so the center has become
located closer to a small, ragged area of convection. A more
pronounced curved band can also be seen east of the depression
though this feature is located over 120 n mi away. This structure is
due to ongoing west-southwesterly shear and the presence of some dry
air that continues to plague the cyclone. The latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB and wind data from a recent ASCAT-B
overpass indicate the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

Some slight strengthening is possible later tonight through Sunday
morning as a slight decrease in shear combined with the diurnal
convective maximum may allow the depression to become a tropical
storm. Thereafter through 60 h, the shear is forecast to increase,
while the system moves into an drier environment. Thus, no further
strengthening is forecast during this period, and the cyclone could
weaken back into a tropical depression. By around 72 h, global
models are suggesting that the shear will decrease again. So, some
gradual strengthening is forecast after that time. It should also be
noted that the GFS, which earlier forecast the system to degenerate
into a remnant low in a few days, now keeps the cyclone in tact and
deepens it when the shear lessens toward the end of the 5-day
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the
previous one through 24 h, but is higher beyond 24 h. This forecast
is a blend of the SHIPS and IVCN guidance through 72 h, but is lower
than those solutions after that time.

The depression is moving toward the north at 9 kt toward a weakness
in the subtropical ridge, carved out by a mid- to upper-level trough
over the north-central Atlantic. This trough and associated ridge
weakness is forecast to remain in place for the next few days,
resulting in the cyclone continuing a general northward motion. By
late in the forecast period, the trough is expected to lift out
of the region and be replaced by a ridge, which would result in the
system turning northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast is
little changed from the previous one and lies near the various
multi-model consensus tracks.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 16.6N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 17.7N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 19.4N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 20.8N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 22.3N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 23.5N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 25.0N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 28.2N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 31.5N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 290235
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 49.9W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 49.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected later tonight, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Sunday. Little
change in strength is expected thereafter through early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 290235
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 49.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 49.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 49.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.7N 49.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.4N 49.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 49.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.3N 49.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 49.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.2N 50.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.5N 51.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 49.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 282034
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

This afternoon's satellite presentation consists of an exposed
surface circulation with a rather shapeless convective mass
displaced to the east and north of the center. Without question,
the 15 to 20 kt of west-northwesterly shear is doing a number on
the cloud pattern. Also evident, are a number of arc clouds
propagating away from the system's deep convection, certainly
indicative of dry air intrusion. Consequently, the initial
intensity is once again held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The global models as well as the Decay SHIPS (ECMWF/GFS) intensity
guidance still show the shear relaxing a bit tonight and into
Sunday, which should allow the depression to briefly become a
tropical storm. By Monday, however, the shear is forecast to
increase while the cyclone moves into an even more dry and stable
air mass. These inhibiting contributions should stifle further
strengthening and weaken the cyclone back to a depression through
the remainder of the forecast period. It's worth mentioning that
the GFS indicates that the depression will become a remnant low in
72 hours while turning northwestward to west-northwestward within
the tradewind flow and dissipate by the end of the week. For now,
the NHC forecast will stick with the consensus intensity models and
the SHIPS guidance which agree on maintaining a depression through
day 5.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. The
depression remains embedded in low- to mid-level southerly flow
produced by a mid-Atlantic trough dominating the central Atlantic.
This synoptic feature, along with a subtropical high pressure
located over the east Atlantic and western Africa, should influence
a generally northward motion through the 5-day period. The
official track forecast again is adjusted a little to the right of
the previous advisory beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN and
HCCA multimodel solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 15.6N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 18.2N 49.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 21.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 22.5N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 23.8N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 27.2N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 30.5N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 282034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

...DEPRESSION STILL STRUGGLING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 50.0W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 50.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is forecast to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 282034
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 50.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.6N 50.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.2N 49.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N 49.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.5N 48.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.8N 49.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.2N 50.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 281436
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

First light visible imagery shows that the rather disorganized
surface center is exposed near the western edge of the cloud mass.
The associated deep convection has been diminishing during the past
6 hours due to the stiff west-northwesterly shear and a rather
parched surrounding thermodynamic environment. The initial
intensity is held at 30 kt, consistent with the Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and the 1156 UTC METOP-A
scatterometer pass.

The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows that the shear should
decrease somewhat tonight and into Sunday, which should allow for
some strengthening. By Monday, the aforementioned model, along
with the deterministic guidance, indicates an increase in the shear
magnitude and even lower mid- tropospheric relative humidity
values, which should cap further strengthening and weaken the
cyclone back to a depression through the remainder of the forecast
period. There's more agreement in the large-scale models this
morning indicating that the depression will degenerate into a
remnant low toward the end of the week, and the NHC forecast
follows suit. This is the only change from the previous advisory,
and the NHC intensity forecast closely resembles the skilled IVCN
and HCCA intensity consensus aids.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/7 kt. The
depression is embedded in low- to mid-level southerly flow produced
by a mid-Atlantic trough stretching from the northeast Atlantic to
the central tropical Atlantic. This feature, along with a
subtropical ridge situated over the east Atlantic and western
Africa, should steer the depression generally toward the north
through the 5-day period. The official track forecast has been
nudged to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 3, and is
close to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA multimodel guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 14.8N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 15.7N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 17.1N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 18.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 20.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 21.4N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 22.7N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 25.4N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 51.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 281435
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NOW HEADING NORTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 50.1W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 50.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is forecast to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 281434
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 50.1W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 50.0W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 50.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.7N 50.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.1N 50.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.6N 50.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.1N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.4N 49.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.7N 49.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 50.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.6N 51.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 280855
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

The tropical wave and associated low pressure system that the NHC
has been tracking for the past several days has finally acquired a
well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep
convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The last few
visible satellite images yesterday evening indicated a tight swirl
in the low-cloud field and a 27/2325Z partial ASCAT-A pass showed
the circulation was also well-defined, albeit with only 23-kt
surface winds. Since the time of that scatterometer pass, however, a
significant increase in deep convection with cloud tops colder than
-80 deg C has developed very near and to the northeast of he center,
with a few cells also now having developed just to the southwest of
the center. Based on the structure noted in the ASCAT data and the
pronounced increase in the amount and organization of the
convection, the advisory intensity is estimated to be 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 340/06 kt. The system has slowed down
markedly during the past several hours, likely due to the sharp
increase in the associated convection. A turn toward the north is
forecast to begin later this afternoon as the system moves into a
break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge pattern, with a general
northward motion continuing through the remainder of the forecast
period. The latest NHC model guidance is surprisingly in good
agreement on this track scenario, with only minor forward speed
differences noted between the models.

The 18-20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear affecting the
depression is expected to abate somewhat during the next 12-24
hours, which should allow for some slight strengthening to occur
while the system moves over 27.5 deg C sea-surface temperatures. By
48 hours, however, the shear is forecast to increase again in excess
of 25 kt, which should act to weaken the cyclone, possibly even
causing it to degenerate into a remnant low. For now, however, the
official intensity forecast calls for the system to remain a
tropical depression at days 3 and 4 in the event the cyclone
regenerates at day 5 when the shear is forecast to decrease below
10 kt, which may allow for convection to redevelop. The
official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the
intensity consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 14.0N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 16.1N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 17.7N 50.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 19.1N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 20.7N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 21.9N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 27.5N 52.8W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 280854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 49.9W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 49.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this motion is forecast to continue this morning. By this
afternoon, the depression is forecast to move northward, and then
maintain that general motion into early next week. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to remain over the open Atlantic well
to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 280854
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021
0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 49.9W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 49.9W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 49.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.1N 50.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.7N 50.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.1N 50.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.7N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.9N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 52.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 49.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>