Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JULIAN-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 300246
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
300 AM GMT Mon Aug 30 2021

Julian has been showing signs of a transition into an extratropical
cyclone over the past several hours. The deep convection has become
detached to the northeast from the low-level center and cloud tops
of that convection are warming. A line of convection to the south of
the center resembles a frontal boundary, with recent scatterometer
data showing a notable wind shift along that line. Based on the
structural changes noted above, as well as a majority of FSU
phase-space diagrams from the various global models, Julian is
estimated to have transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. Recent
ASCAT data showed the cyclone's intensity remains 50 kt. The cyclone
is forecast to maintain this intensity through Monday before
weakening. It is then forecast to dissipate in a few days over the
northern Atlantic. The system should continue to move quickly
northeastward through Monday, then turn northward and northwestward
Monday night into Tuesday.

This is the last advisory on Julian by the National Hurricane
Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 38.1N 41.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 30/1200Z 40.3N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 31/0000Z 44.1N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 31/1200Z 48.5N 36.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 01/0000Z 53.0N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 01/1200Z 57.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 300240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
300 AM GMT Mon Aug 30 2021

...JULIAN BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 41.9W
ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian
was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 41.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 26 mph (43
km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Monday,
followed by a turn to the north, then northeast Monday night into
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 300239
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021
0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 41.9W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 41.9W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 42.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 40.3N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 44.1N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 48.5N 36.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 53.0N 38.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 57.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 41.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 292039
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Julian Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021

The convective pattern and structure of Julian has remained
consistent throughout today, with the low-level center remaining
tucked under the southwestern edge of a deep convective mass and
good outflow in the northeastern semicircle. A late morning ASCAT-C
overpass sampled peak winds of 45 to 47 kt, and since the cyclone
has likely intensified slightly since that time, the initial
intensity has been increased to 50 kt.

Julian is now moving quickly to the northeast, or 050/21 kt in
southwesterly flow to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure
located just east of Newfoundland. The storm is forecast to continue
to move northeastward at a similar forward speed through Monday, and
then begin to turn northward then northwestward Monday night through
Tuesday as the cyclone moves around the periphery of the larger low.
The model track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement on
this scenario, and the latest NHC track forecast is little changed
from the previous one.

A cold front associated with the low east of Newfoundland has
already begun to interact with the circulation of Julian, as noted
by dry air being pulled into the southern portion of the
circulation, and linear banding developing to the south of the
cyclone. Baroclinic forcing could allow for some slight additional
strengthening through tonight. However, Julian should cross the 26 C
isotherm this evening, and reach waters of 22 C by 24 h while
interacting with the cold front and associated mid- to upper level
trough to its north. These factors should cause the cyclone to go
through extratropical transition tonight through tomorrow morning,
with the transition complete by late tomorrow. The latest SHIPS
guidance as well as the FSU phase-space diagrams depict this
transition scenario. Once extratropical, the system should dissipate
within a couple of days over the north Atlantic. The latest NHC
intensity forecast was essentially an update of the previous one,
and is close to the HCCA and IVCN solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 36.7N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 38.8N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 42.2N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 31/0600Z 46.3N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/1800Z 51.0N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 01/0600Z 55.0N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 292039
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julian Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
900 PM GMT Sun Aug 29 2021

...JULIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 44.6W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julian was
located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 44.6 West. Julian is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a
turn to the north, then northeast Monday night into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight. Julian is
expected to become post-tropical by Monday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 292038
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JULIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 44.6W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 44.6W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 45.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.8N 41.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 42.2N 38.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 46.3N 36.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 51.0N 37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 55.0N 39.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 44.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 291453
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Julian Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

The system has become better organized this morning, with the
low-level center located on the southwestern edge of a persistent
mass of deep convection. A 1246 UTC ASCAT-B pass revealed an area
of winds over 40 kt southeast of the center, so the system is
upgraded to Tropical Storm Julian with maximum winds of 45 kt.

Julian is accelerating toward the northeast (045/15 kt) in the flow
to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure located just east
of Newfoundland. The storm is expected to move around the
southeastern and eastern periphery of this large low during the next
few days, accelerating further and turning toward the north by 48
hours. The track models are all in good agreement on this scenario,
and the NHC track forecast is very close to the TVCA and HCCA
consensus aids. This new forecast is also relatively unchanged from
the previous advisory.

Winds in the storm have increased faster than expected, even in the
face of 20 kt of west-southwesterly shear. This shear is forecast
to increase substantially in the coming days, with SHIPS diagnostics
indicating it may reach magnitudes of 40-50 kt. However, the storm
will still be moving over marginally warm waters around 26 degrees
Celsius, and its fast motion and some baroclinic forcing could allow
for additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours. Nearly
all the intensity models support some strengthening, and the NHC
official forecast peaks the winds at 55 kt in 24 hours, roughly
between the IVCN and HCCA solutions. Phase-space diagrams suggest
that Julian will probably already be going through extratropical
transition at that time, and it should be fully extratropical by 36
hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated after 24 hours, and the
extratropical low is likely to dissipate over the north Atlantic by
day 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 35.1N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 36.9N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 40.0N 39.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 43.6N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/1200Z 48.0N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 01/0000Z 52.2N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 291452
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julian Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

...TROPICAL STORM JULIAN FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 46.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julian was
located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 46.8 West. Julian is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast and then north over the north Atlantic is
expected through Tuesday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is anticipated through tonight.
Weakening should begin on Monday, with Julian likely becoming
post-tropical by Monday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 291452
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JULIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 46.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 46.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 47.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.9N 43.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 40.0N 39.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 43.6N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 48.0N 36.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 52.2N 38.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 46.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 290859
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

The depression continues to slowly organize this morning, with a
distinct curved band stretching along the southeastern quadrant of
the low-level circulation. However, the deep convection that was
closer to the center earlier has recently been sheared off to the
northeast due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The
latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.0/30
kt and T1.5/25 kt respectively. The latest objective ADT guidance
was a bit higher at T2.4/34 kt. Taking a blend of these estimates,
the intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory, though the
depression appears close to becoming a tropical storm.

The depression is beginning to gradually accelerate, with the
estimated motion now at 050/13 kt. A strong deep-layer trough will
continue to steer the depression to the northeast in the short-term
with increasing forward motion. After the system becomes a
post-tropical cyclone, it is forecast to gradually pivot to the
north and then northwest before dissipating in 72 hours. The latest
NHC track forecast is a touch faster than the previous one,
following the latest consensus track guidance.

While vertical wind shear is expected to increase quite dramatically
over the next 24-36 hours, strong baroclinic forcing should offset
this negative factor and allow at least steady intensification in
the short term especially as the cyclone accelerates. After 24
hours, the system will be crossing into much cooler sea-surface
temperatures, and extratropical transition will likely be ongoing as
the system merges with an advancing frontal boundary. The latest NHC
intensity forecast follows the HCCA consensus aid closely, and is
just a bit stronger in the short-term helped by the fast forward
motion, with a peak intensity of 50-kt just before extratropical
transition occurs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 34.0N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 35.8N 45.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 38.5N 41.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 41.8N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0600Z 45.9N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 31/1800Z 50.0N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 290857
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021

...DEPRESSION ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 48.6W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 48.6 West. The
depression is moving a bit faster toward the northeast near 15 mph
(24 km/h) and this direction of motion is expected to continue with
further acceleration through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become to a tropical storm later today. The system is then
forecast to become post-tropical by Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 290856
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.8N 45.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.5N 41.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 70SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 41.8N 37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 45.9N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 50.0N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 48.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 290249
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

Before sunset this evening, visible satellite images showed that a
well-defined low level circulation was developing in association
with the disturbance over the subtropical central Atlantic.
However, up until a couple of hours ago, the system lacked
sufficient organized deep convection to be considered a tropical
cyclone by definition. Since that time, a deep convective burst has
increased in size near, and to the east of the estimated
center. In addition, a curved band has begun to develop over the
southeastern portion of the circulation. Based on this increase in
convective organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Eleven. There was no ASCAT data this evening over the
cyclone, so the initial intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest
Dvorak CI number from TAFB.

The initial motion of the depression is 050/10 kt. The cyclone is
embedded in southwesterly flow to the southeast of a mid- to
upper-level trough and an associated cold front. This flow is
forecast to increase as the cold front approaches the cyclone,
resulting in the system accelerating northeastward over the next day
or so. Once the cyclone interacts with this frontal boundary in a
couple of days, a turn to the north is expected. The model guidance
is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track
forecast lies in the middle of the consensus tracks.

Baroclinic forcing and upper-level diffluence should aid in
intensifying the depression over the next 24 h, despite increasing
shear. By 36 h, the combination of interaction with the cold front
and passage over much cooler waters should result in extratropical
transition. The system is then forecast to become absorbed by a
larger low pressure system by midweek. The NHC intensity forecast
is near the various multi-model consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 33.0N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 34.6N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 36.8N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 39.5N 39.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0000Z 43.4N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 31/1200Z 47.9N 36.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 290247
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 49.7W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 49.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
faster northeastward motion is expected through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected through Sunday, and the depression
is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later tonight or
tomorrow. The system is then forecast to become extratropical by
Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 290247
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 49.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 49.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 50.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.6N 47.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.8N 43.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 39.5N 39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 43.4N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 47.9N 36.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 49.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

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