Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LARRY-21
in Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 111437
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021

Satellite images indicate that Larry has completed its transition to
a post-tropical cyclone with most of the deep convection dissipating
near the low-level center and frontal features developing. In
addition, the low- and mid-level centers are now well separated,
and the cyclone appears a little weaker. The initial intensity is
estimated to be 60 kt. The post-tropical system is very large and
gale-force winds and high seas extend far from the center. It is
interesting to note that up to just several hours ago Larry had
maintained an inner core and a fairly tropical appearance despite
being at very high latitudes and over quite cold water. Larry is
racing northeastward, with the initial motion estimated to be 030/42
kt. The storm is expected to merge with another large extratropical
low tonight or early Sunday.

This is the last NHC advisory on Larry. For more information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry will
continue to affect portions of the the east coast of the United
States and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and
other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance
of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 54.0N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 12/0000Z 57.8N 44.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 111437
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021

...LARRY IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE LABRADOR SEA...
...STILL PRODUCING LARGE SWELLS ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA AND PORTIONS
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...54.0N 48.2W
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM WSW OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry
was located near latitude 54.0 North, longitude 48.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 48
mph (78 km/h) and this heading with a decrease in forward speed is
expected until Larry merges with an extratropical low tonight or
early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is possible before Larry merges with
another extratropical low.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside in southeastern
Newfoundland today.

SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting portions
of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Larry. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 111436
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 48.2W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 42 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT.......210NE 270SE 210SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 600SE 840SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 48.2W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 52.5N 49.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.8N 44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 360SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 54.0N 48.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON LARRY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 110832
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021

Larry made landfall near South East Bight, Newfoundland, around 0345
UTC. Since then, the hurricane has moved quickly north-
northeastward at 42 kt and is now well northeast of Newfoundland.
Although the hurricane still has some central convection, the low-
and mid-level centers are separating, and the remaining convection
is decreasing. The initial winds are lowered to 65 kt, consistent
with the degraded structure. Larry should quickly transition into
a strong post-tropical cyclone later today while it continues its
speedy north-northeastward course, then dissipate as it merges with
a developing mid-latitude low over the Labrador Sea. No
significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and
Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 50.7N 51.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 56.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 110830
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021

...LARRY RACING AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.7N 51.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM WSW OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings for Newfoundland have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 50.7 North, longitude 51.7 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h), and this motion
is forecast to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Larry is forecast to transition into a
post-tropical cyclone later today, and merge with a larger
non-tropical low by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

STORM SURGE: Water levels will gradually subside in southeastern
Newfoundland today.

SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 110830
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL WARNINGS FOR NEWFOUNDLAND HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.7N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 42 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 240SE 150SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 350SE 660SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.7N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.8N 53.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 56.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 360SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 50.7N 51.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 110541
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021

...LARRY LASHING NEWFOUNDLAND WITH STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS
STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.7N 53.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF ST JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
has been discontinued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo
Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 48.7 North, longitude 53.2 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northeast near 47 mph (76 km/h). A very rapid
motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected through
today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will
be moving quickly away from Newfoundland during the next several
hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and Larry is
expected to become a strong extratropical low later this morning
before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). St. John's International Airport, Newfoundland,
recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a wind
gust of 90 mph (144 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches)
based on surface observations from Newfoundland.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue in the warned areas during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 110355
TCUAT2

Hurricane Larry Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1150 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...LARRY MAKES LANDFALL ON NEWFOUNDLAND...

Recent satellite, radar and surface data indicate that Larry has
made landfall in Newfoundland near South East Bight at 1145 PM AST
(0345 UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) and
an estimated minimum pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1150 PM AST...0350 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.4N 54.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 110248
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

Satellite imagery and data from Canadian radars indicate that Larry
is maintaining good central convective banding in the northeastern
semicircle, and based on this it is still a tropical cyclone at
this time. The maximum intensity is held at 70 kt based mainly on
recently-received scattterometer data showing 64-67 kt winds to the
east and southeast of the center. Surface observations indicate
that tropical storm conditions are spreading into southeastern
Newfoundland, and hurricane condition should move onshore during
the next few hours as the center makes landfall.

After landfall, Larry is expected to quickly lose its tropical
cyclone characteristics and become a strong extratropical low over
the Labrador Sea. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate after 24 h
as it merges with a developing mid-latitude low currently to its
northwest.

Larry is moving rapidly toward the north-northeast with an initial
motion of 030/41. This general motion should continue until Larry
merges with the other low pressure area. The new official forecast
track is little changed from the previous track and is in the
middle of the tightly clustered guidance models.


Key Messages:

1. Larry will move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland
during the next several hours as it undergoes transition to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a
dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions
of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 46.8N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 51.9N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/0000Z 56.8N 44.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 110248
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...CENTER OF LARRY TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.8N 54.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo
Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 46.8 North, longitude 54.9 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northeast near 47 mph (76 km/h). A very rapid
motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected through
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will
be moving across southeastern Newfoundland during the next few
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall in
Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry is expected to become a strong
extratropical low by Saturday morning before it merges with
another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km). A station at Cape St. Mary's, Newfoundland,
relayed by amateur radio, recently reported sustained winds of
84 mph (135 km/h) and a wind gust of 97 mph (156 km/h) at an
unknown elevation.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are now spreading across the hurricane
warning area in southeastern Newfoundland, and tropical storm
conditions are also spreading across other portions of the
hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern
Newfoundland during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through
Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 110247
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO FOGO
ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.8N 54.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 41 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT.......220NE 220SE 180SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 380SE 500SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.8N 54.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 56.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.9N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...230NE 250SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 56.8N 44.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 300SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.8N 54.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 102341
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...LARRY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.9N 56.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo
Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 44.9 North, longitude 56.5 West. Larry is moving
quickly toward the north-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). An even
faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the
next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will
pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern
Newfoundland tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in
Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an
extratropical cyclone early Saturday before it merges with another
low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).
Canadian buoy 44139 recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph
(86 km/h) with a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
Canadian Buoy 44139 recently reported a pressure of 962.1 mb (28.41
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, and tropical storm
conditions are starting to spread into the area at this time.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical
storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later this evening.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through
Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 102044
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

Even though Larry is crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream
Current, the hurricane remains well organized and has changed little
during the past several hours. Satellite images and radar data
indicate that Larry still has an inner core, though the southern
side has eroded some. Large curved bands surround the inner core
region, with dry slots noted between the core and bands. The initial
intensity is held at 70 kt based mostly on the ASCAT data from
earlier today, which showed peak winds of around 65 kt to the east
of the center. It should be noted that this intensity value is
above the Dvorak estimates, which are often not as reliable for high
latitude storms like Larry. The earlier ASCAT data confirmed that
Larry is a large cyclone with hurricane-force and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 90 n mi and 220 n
mi from the center, respectively. Larry is rapidly approaching
southeastern Newfoundland, and weather conditions are expected to
begin to deteriorate there in a few hours.

The hurricane continues to accelerate to the north-northeast, and
the latest initial motion estimate is 020/30 kt. An even faster
north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day
or so as the hurricane moves in the fast flow between a mid- to
upper-level trough over the northeastern U.S./eastern Canada and a
mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. This motion should take
Larry across southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Larry is then
expected to merge with a large extratropical low over the Labrador
Sea on Sunday. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and near the middle of the tightly clustered models.

Larry is expected to maintain its intensity through landfall in
Newfoundland tonight. However, a combination of land interaction,
much cooler SSTs, and an increase in shear are expected to promote
weakening shortly after landfall. Larry should be fully
extratropical early Saturday morning when it is forecast to be
exiting Newfoundland and moving over the cold waters of the
Labrador Sea. The NHC intensity forecast remains close to the GFS
model, which often performs well for hurricanes that transition to
extratropical cyclones.


Key Messages:

1. Larry is forecast to move over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a
dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions
of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 43.5N 58.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 48.6N 53.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/1800Z 54.9N 46.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0600Z 58.6N 42.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 102043
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...LARRY NEARING SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.5N 58.2W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo
Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 43.5 North, longitude 58.2 West. Larry is moving
quickly toward the north-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). An even
faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the
next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will
pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern
Newfoundland tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in
Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an
extratropical cyclone early Saturday before it merges with another
low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin this afternoon or evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical
storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through
Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 102043
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
2100 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO FOGO
ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 58.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT.......220NE 220SE 180SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 330SE 420SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 58.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 59.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.6N 53.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 54.9N 46.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 300SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 58.6N 42.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 360SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.5N 58.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 101751
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...LARRY APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.8N 59.5W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo
Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 41.8 North, longitude 59.5 West. Larry is moving
quickly toward the north-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). An even
faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the
next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will
pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern
Newfoundland tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in
Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an
extratropical cyclone on Saturday before it merges with another low
over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin this afternoon or evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical
storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas
today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting
Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 101448
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

Larry remains a well organized hurricane at a high latitude, and it
is quickly approaching southeastern Newfoundland. Satellite images
show a fairly tight inner core and large curved bands surrounding
that feature. However, there are some notable dry slots between the
core and bands that have developed during the past several hours.
The latest Dvorak numbers have nudged downward, with the CI values
ranging between 65 kt and 72 kt. Based on these estimates, and a
very recent ASCAT pass that showed peak winds near 65 kt, the
initial intensity is set at 70 kt for this advisory. The cyclone
remains quite large, with hurricane-force winds and
tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend outward up to 80 and
210 n mi from the center, respectively.

The hurricane is in the process of turning to the right, with the
latest initial motion estimated to be a fairly quick 015/25 kt. An
even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during
the next day or two as the hurricane moves in the fast flow between
a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern U.S./eastern
Canada and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. This motion
should take Larry across southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Larry
is then expected to merge with a large extratropical low over the
Labrador Sea on Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Although Larry will be moving over cooler waters north of the Gulf
Stream Current later today, the hurricane will likely hold its
strength or weaken just a little before landfall. After landfall,
the models show the inner core dissipating, and the combination of
land interaction, cooler waters, and an increase in shear should
cause weakening and lead to extratropical transition by early
Saturday. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS model,
which often performs well for hurricanes that transition to
extratropical cyclones.


Key Messages:

1. Larry is forecast to move over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a
dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions
of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 40.0N 60.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0000Z 57.5N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1200Z 61.1N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 101447
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...LARRY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 60.5W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo
Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Larry is moving
quickly toward the north-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). An even
faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the
next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will
pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern
Newfoundland tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in
Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an
extratropical cyclone on Saturday before it merges with another low
over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin this afternoon or evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical
storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas
today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting
Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 101447
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO FOGO
ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 60.5W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 180SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 350SE 280SW 340NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 60.5W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 61.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 250SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 61.1N 38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...420NE 420SE 480SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 60.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 101147
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...LARRY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.2N 60.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo
Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 60.8 West. Larry is moving
quickly toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A turn to
the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later
today. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well
southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern
Newfoundland tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but
Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes
Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on
Saturday, and is now forecast to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical low near Greenland by the end of the weekend.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin this afternoon or evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical
storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas
today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting
Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 100844
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

Larry's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged
overnight. Deep convection continues to persist over and to the
northeast of the center, with a larger outer band around the
eastern portion of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB have lowered slightly, and the initial
intensity has been adjusted downward to 75 kt. This lies between
the lower subjective satellite estimates and the higher UW/CIMSS
ADT and SATCON values. Larry is forecast to remain over warm
waters and in low vertical wind shear conditions this morning,
therefore little overall change in intensity is expected in the
short term. The hurricane will cross the north wall of the Gulf
Stream over much cooler SSTs this afternoon, but the increasingly
fast forward speed of the system and baroclinic forcing from a
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west is likely to help
Larry maintain hurricane strength as is passes over southeastern
Newfoundland tonight. Larry is forecast to become extratropical
shortly thereafter, and some slight weakening should occur before
the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by a larger extratropical low
near southern Greenland in a couple of days. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids and also
follows the trends of the latest global model guidance.

Larry has turned north-northeastward or 015/23 kt. The track
guidance is once again in excellent agreement that Larry should
turn northeastward today and continue to accelerate ahead of
the aforementioned trough. The center of Larry should pass over
southeastern Newfoundland tonight, but users are reminded to not
focus on the exact details of the track forecast as strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will extend far from
the center of the cyclone. The updated official forecast lies near
the center of the track guidance envelope, but is slightly faster
than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Larry is forecast to move over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a
dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions
of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 37.7N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 41.9N 59.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 48.6N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0600Z 60.0N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 100843
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...LARRY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 61.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has extended the Tropical Storm
Warning along the southern coast of southeastern Newfoundland
westward to Francois and along the northern coast of southeastern
Newfoundland to Fogo Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo
Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 61.8 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A turn to the
northeast with a further increase in forward speed is expected
today. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well
southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern
Newfoundland tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes
Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on
Saturday, and is now forecast to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical low near Greenland by the end of the weekend.

Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas
today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting
Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 100843
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
WESTWARD TO FRANCOIS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND TO FOGO ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO FOGO
ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 61.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..380NE 350SE 280SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 61.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.9N 59.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.6N 53.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 250SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 60.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...420NE 420SE 480SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 61.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 100550
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021

...LARRY HEADING TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 62.2W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 62.2 West. Larry is moving
toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h). A further increase in
forward speed is expected this morning with a turn to the northeast
forecast later today. On the forecast track, the center of Larry
will continue to move away from Bermuda this morning, and move near
or over southeastern Newfoundland tonight or early Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin later today, but Larry
is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland.
Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is now
forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Greenland
by the end of the weekend.

Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect portions
of the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas today. Significant swells
from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the
United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 100244
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

There is not much new to report in the satellite structure with
Larry this evening. The hurricane consists of a small core region of
cold convective cloud tops near and just north of the center with a
much larger concentric band of more moderate convective activity
encircling the smaller core. Radar from Bermuda also shows this
structure well even as the hurricane pulls away from the island. The
most recent subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from SAB
and TAFB were unchanged from this afternoon, and the initial
intensity will remain at 80 kt for this advisory.

Larry is now moving to the north and beginning to accelerate at
360/20 kt. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Larry
should soon turn to the northeast and continue accelerating quickly
ahead of a large mid-latitude trough. On the current track, Larry
should pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland tomorrow night or
Saturday morning, becoming post-tropical shortly after it passes by.
The post-tropical cyclone Larry should continue to move rapidly to
the northeast until it is absorbed by the aforementioned
mid-latitude trough after 48 hours. The official track forecast
again lies close to the various consensus model predictions, and is
just a touch faster than the previous forecast.

Larry has another 12 hours or so over warm Gulf Stream waters, and
most of the guidance is in agreement that the hurricane should
maintain its intensity in the short-term. However, more gradual
weakening should begin thereafter once Larry moves over much cooler
waters. Unfortunately, there is not much time for Larry to weaken
before the hurricane impacts Newfoundland, and it also is possible
the rapidly approaching mid-latitude trough will provide some
baroclinic forcing that could expand the wind field of the
hurricane further. The NHC intensity forecast remain close to the
latest HCCA guidance which is quite similar to the previous
forecast. After 24 hours, the latest forecast GFS and ECMWF
simulated IR brightness temperature suggest that Larry's convection
should quickly shear off after passing by Newfoundland, with the
hurricane becoming a powerful post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours.
Both of these models now also suggest the post-tropical cyclone
will quickly be stretched and then absorbed as its captured by an
even larger extratropical cyclone produced by the upstream
trough after 48 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes
transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane
conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of
southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and
other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 35.5N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0000Z 58.1N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 100244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

...LARRY STAYING LARGE AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS
NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 62.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 62.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h). A further increase in
forward speed is expected tonight with a turn to the northeast
forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will
continue to move away from Bermuda tonight, and move near or over
southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry
is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland.
Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is
now forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near
Greenland by the end of the weekend.

Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 100244
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO BONAVISTA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.3W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..380NE 320SE 260SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 62.3W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 62.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 230SE 210SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 260SE 250SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 58.1N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 0NW.
34 KT...320NE 300SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 62.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 092353
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

...LARRY NOW MOVING NORTH AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 62.3W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 62.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the north near 21 mph (34 km/h). A further increase in
forward speed is expected tonight, with an even faster northeastward
motion forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Larry will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight, and move near
or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry
is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland.
Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, then
weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night.
Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east
of Greenland by Monday.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). Pearl Island,
Bermuda, reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to
45 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern
Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 092059
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

A faint eye is still discernible on visible satellite images along
with some banding features. On the Bermuda radar, the eyewall is
partially open over the southern semicircle of the hurricane.
Larry still has a prominent upper-tropospheric outflow pattern,
especially over the northern portion of the circulation. The
advisory intensity is held at 80 kt, just above the latest
Dvorak Current Intensity Numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Larry is now heading a little west of north at an increasing forward
speed, and the initial motion is 345/17 kt. The hurricane has been
moving around the western side of a large deep-layer high pressure
area centered over the central Atlantic. By Friday, the system
should accelerate northeastward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric
trough over the northeastern United States, and pass near or over
southeastern Newfoundland within 36 hours. Thereafter, post-tropical
cyclone Larry should move over the far North Atlantic. The official
track forecast again lies close to the various consensus model
predictions.

The hurricane is expected to remain over warm waters with weak
vertical shear for another 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, Larry is
forecast to move over the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream
and the shear will increase. These factors should induce
weakening, but possible baroclinic forcing associated with the
trough to the west of the cyclone could result in Larry maintaining
some strength over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the latest NOAA corrected-consensus guidance, HCCA.
Global model predictions indicate that Larry will merge with a
front, and therefore become an extratropical cyclone, in 48 hours.
These models also show the system merging with another large
extratropical low over the north Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.


Key Messages:

1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes
transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane
conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of
southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect.

2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and
other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through
this evening, along with a risk of coastal flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 33.9N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 42.2N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 48.4N 52.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0600Z 59.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z 61.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z...MERGED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 092058
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

...LARRY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 62.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Warning
from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour, Newfoundland.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has also issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove, and from north of
Jones Harbour to Bonavista, Newfoundland.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour

Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 62.2 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a turn toward
the north with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight,
with a faster northeastward motion forecast by Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Larry will continue to move away from
Bermuda tonight, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland
Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry
is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland.
Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, then
weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night.
Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east
of Greenland by Monday.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). Pearl Island, Bermuda,
reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph
(74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda for the
next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late Friday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern
Newfoundland.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently
not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands
may result in an inch or two of rain through today.

Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland
Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 092057
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR...NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE...AND FROM NORTH OF
JONES HARBOUR TO BONAVISTA...NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR
NEWFOUNDLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO BONAVISTA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 62.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 320SE 280SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 62.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.2N 59.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.4N 52.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 180SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 230SE 210SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 59.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 61.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...320NE 270SE 250SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 62.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 091800
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

...LARRY PASSING BY BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 62.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 62.0 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn toward
the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with
a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Larry will pass east of Bermuda today, and move
near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early
Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.
Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after
passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes
southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be
absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland by Monday.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A wind gust to 41
mph (67 km/h) was recently reported at Flatts Village, Bermuda.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently
not expected, however brief heavy rain from these bands may result
in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.

Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland
Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 091500
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

Larry continues to feature a banding-type eye on satellite images,
and the eye is clearly evident on the Bermuda radar. Satellite and
radar data also show a moat-like area of low precipitation between
the eyewall and a large band of convection farther removed from the
center. This outer band is expected to affect Bermuda or the
waters just east of the island over the next several hours.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the central pressure has changed little since yesterday.
Flight-level winds from the aircraft were as high as 95 kt, but the
peak SFMR-observed surface winds were only 69 kt. This again
indicates that in this case the strong winds aloft are not being
transported to the surface as effectively as in a typical hurricane
at lower latitudes. Blending these data results in an intensity
estimate of 80 kt for this advisory. This is just a little higher
than the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane is gradually turning to the right and the initial
motion is 340/14 kt. Larry is currently moving around the western
side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central
Atlantic, and is passing east of Bermuda. The flow on the east
side of a strong mid-level trough moving from the northeastern
United States to Atlantic Canada will cause Larry to turn toward
the northeast and accelerate in 24 to 48 hours. Larry will move
near or over southeastern Newfoundland in 36 to 48 hours, and
then move over the far north Atlantic around the end of the
forecast period. There is very little change to the NHC track
forecast from the previous advisory, which remains close to the
various consensus model solutions.

Larry is likely remain over warm waters with low shear for
another 24 hours or so. Thus the system will probably maintain
much of its intensity into Friday. By Friday night and over the
weekend, cooler SSTs and increasing shear should cause weakening.
However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west
of the hurricane could slow the weakening process. The official
intensity forecast keeps Larry at hurricane-force through 48 hours
even as it undergoes extratropical transition. In 3-4 days, the
global models show Larry merging with another large extratropical
cyclone over the north Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda later
today, and tropical storm conditions are expected there today,
along with a risk of coastal flooding.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes
transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane
conditions are storm surge are possible in portions of southeastern
Newfoundland where a hurricane watch is in effect. Interests there
should monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 32.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 34.5N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 44.8N 56.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 51.3N 49.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 57.0N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 61.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z...MERGED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 091454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA SOON WHILE
LARRY MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 61.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 61.6 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward
the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with
a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Larry will pass east of Bermuda today, and
move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early
Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.
Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after
passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes
southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be
absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland by Monday.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently
not expected, however brief heavy rain from these bands may result
in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.

Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland
Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 091454
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ST. SCHOTTS TO POUCH COVE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ST. SCHOTTS
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF POUCH COVE TO BONAVISTA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 61.6W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 320SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 61.6W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 61.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.5N 62.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.8N 56.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.3N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 230SE 210SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 61.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...320NE 270SE 250SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 61.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 091153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 61.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 61.5 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward
the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with
a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and
move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early
Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.
Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after
passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes
southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be
absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland Monday.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extending outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later
today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently
not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands
may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. Heavy rains
from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday
night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 090846
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

This morning's conventional satellite presentation appears to
indicate a more banding eye feature rather than a previously noted
irregular-type eye. A timely Advanced Technology Microwave
Sounder (ATMS) image and an AMSR2 lower frequency pass, however,
clearly shows the majority of the eyewall intact. The primary
curved band wrapping around the west semicircle consists of -78
Celsius cloud tops. The western portion of the eyewall is now
discernible on the Bermuda Weather Service Radar. The initial
intensity is held at possibly generous 85 kt for this advisory and
is based on a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates. A 53rd Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
mission is scheduled for this morning and will provide new
information on Larry's intensity.

The 0000 UTC GFS global model sounding revealed 15 to 20 kt of
southwesterly effective shear impinging on the western
half of the cyclone while the UW-CIMSS shear analysis showed 20-25
kt of bulk shear in the same area. This, along with a
significantly higher statically stable surrounding environment
(about 55 percent RH), has disrupted the inner core and more than
likely created a SW to NW tilt with height. Larry is expected to
change little in strength during the next 12 to 24 hours, then
gradually weaken as the cyclone traverses sharply decreasing cooler
water north of the gulf stream while the southwesterly shear
increases significantly. The dynamic forcing, however, associated
with a mid-latitude major shortwave trough near Atlantic Canada
should aid in maintaining Larry as a hurricane while it passes near
or over Newfoundland. Afterwards, Larry is expected to transition
into a large extratropical cyclone, as indicated by the FSU Cyclone
Phase Diagram. By early next week, Larry is expected to be
absorbed by a larger extratropical low.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or
330/14 kt. The track philosophy remains unchanged. Larry is
expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical high
pressure system anchored over the central Atlantic. The hurricane
should make its closest approach to the east of Bermuda later today
while slowly turning north-northwestward and northward. Through the
remaining portion of the forecast, Larry should accelerate
generally northeastward in response to the aforementioned
mid-latitude trough and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland
Friday night. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit to the left
of the previous advisory and is close to the various multi-model
consensus aids.

The wind radii were decreased slightly in all quadrants based on
earlier METOP A and B scatterometer passes.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda later
today, Tropical storm conditions are expected today, along with a
risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night, early Saturday morning as it undergoes
transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane
and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for southeastern
Newfoundland. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high
winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and
interests there should monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 30.9N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 32.9N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 36.7N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 41.8N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 47.9N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 54.1N 45.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z 59.2N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 090842
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

...BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWS RAINBANDS APPROACHING...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 61.1 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass
east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that
time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday,
after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes
southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be
absorbed by a larger baroclinic system east of Greenland Monday.

Larry remains very large, with Hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 220 miles (350
km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
later this morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
southeastern Newfoundland Friday night with tropical storm
conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern
Newfoundland by late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently
not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands
may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. Heavy rains
from Larry will move quickly across eastern New Foundland Friday
night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 090842
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ST. SCHOTTS TO POUCH COVE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ST. SCHOTTS
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF POUCH COVE TO BONAVISTA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..430NE 320SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 60.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.9N 62.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.7N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.8N 59.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 47.9N 52.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 230SE 210SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 54.1N 45.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 59.2N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...320NE 270SE 250SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 61.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 090559
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021

...LARRY'S OUTER BANDS APPROACHING BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 60.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Watch for
southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts northward to Pouch Cove.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Lamaline to west of St.
Schotts and from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts
* Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 60.8 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward
the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with
a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and
move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near near 100 mph (155 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that
time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday,
after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes
southeast of Greenland Sunday night.

Larry remains very large, with Hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
later this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently
not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands
may result in an inch or two of rain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 090258
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

The infrared satellite presentation of Larry this evening is giving
the false impression of a well-organized hurricane, with a ring of
colder cloud tops (-65 to -70 C) and a warm spot within. However, we
are fortunate to have in-situ data provided by an Air Force
Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter mission investigating Larry this
evening. Their observations show that Larry's center is actually
southwest of the warm spot seen on satellite. In fact, the plane was
unable to identify an eye with Larry, and the highest flight-level
and SFMR winds were found nearly 80 nautical miles away from the
center. Moreover, there remains a large discrepancy between the peak
700-mb flight level winds (108-kt) versus the much lower SFMR peak
values (67-kt). This suggests that the 90 percent reduction factor
that is typically applied to 700-mb flight level winds in the
eyewall may not be appropriate for this hurricane given its very
large radius of maximum winds more associated with weaker outer
convection. Given these factors, the latest NHC initial intensity
has been lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. This intensity is also
a good compromise between the SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak
estimates.

The hurricane's heading is still off to the northwest with the
latest motion at 330/14 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not
changed much for the last few days, with Larry moving around the
western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the
central Atlantic. The hurricane should make its closest approach to
the east of Bermuda tomorrow as it gradually turns north-northwest
and north. After that, the hurricane will begin to dramatically
accelerate to the northeast as Larry is picked up by a deep-layer
trough moving offshore of the eastern United States. The latest
forecast track is quite similar to the previous one, and takes Larry
across the southeast portion of Newfoundland in 48-60 hours. The
official forecast remains close to the tightly clustered track
guidance consensus.

The current structure of Larry appears to be somewhat tilted with
height, with the low-level center identified by recon located to the
southwest of the apparent center on IR satellite. While the shear as
diagnosed by SHIPS appears to be lower, it appears dry air has
significantly disrupted Larry's inner core structure, to the point
that it likely will be unable to take advantage of the more
favorable conditions. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower
than the previous one, owing to the lower initial intensity, but
begins to show more pronounced weakening after 24 hours when the
hurricane will accelerate poleward of the northern wall of the Gulf
Stream. However, Larry is still forecast to be a hurricane as it
passes near or over Newfoundland, though likely beginning to
undergo extratropical transition. The models continue to maintain
Larry as a large formidable cyclone after extratropical transition
is complete while it moves into the far north Atlantic east of
Greenland. This cyclone will eventually merge with another
extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and
beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are expected there on Thursday, along with a risk of coastal
flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition
to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing
risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in
portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates
to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 29.7N 60.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 34.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 39.3N 60.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 45.2N 55.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 51.6N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0000Z 57.4N 41.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 63.8N 35.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 090253
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...LARRY STILL A VERY LARGE HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 60.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 60.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east
of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane
during that time. Larry should become fully post-tropical by
Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland.

Larry remains very large, with Hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will
continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals
are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within
these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 090252
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 60.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..460NE 290SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 60.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 59.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.9N 62.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.3N 60.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.2N 55.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 230SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.6N 48.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.4N 41.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 280SE 200SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 63.8N 35.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 60.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 082352
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...RECON INVESTIGATING LARGE LARRY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.8 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east
of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (170 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during
that time.

Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the
United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals
are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within
these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 082050
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

Larry's overall organization has shown little change on satellite
images this afternoon. The eye remains rather ill-defined but the
hurricane continues to produce some strong convection near/around
the center. Cirrus-level outflow remains quite well defined,
particularly to the northwest. The current intensity estimate is
held at 95 kt, which is only slightly above the latest Dvorak
estimates. Another Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Larry this evening to
provide a new intensity estimate.

The hurricane continues heading a little faster toward the
northwest, or at about 325/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy
remains about the same as before. Larry should move around the
western side of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the
central Atlantic for the next 36 to 48 hours, passing east of
Bermuda tomorrow. After that, the hurricane is expected to
accelerate northeastward on the east side of a deep-layer trough
moving through the eastern United States, and Larry will move near
or over southeastern Newfoundland in roughly 60 hours. Then, the
cyclone is forecast to move over the far north Atlantic. The
official forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus
solution and, again, very similar to the previous NHC track.

Based on the dynamical model guidance, weak to moderate vertical
shear should prevail over Larry during the next couple of days.
Sea surface temperatures below the cyclone begin to cool
significantly after 48 hours, which should induce weakening.
However, baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west
may help the hurricane maintain some of its intensity over cooler
waters, as suggested by the global models. The official intensity
forecast follows the model consensus and keeps Larry at hurricane
strength even after extratropical transition. In 5 days or less,
the system should merge with another large cyclonic circulation over
the north Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and
beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal
flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition
to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing
risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in
portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates
to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 28.9N 59.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 37.0N 61.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 42.0N 58.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1800Z 54.0N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1800Z 62.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 082046
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...LARRY REMAINS LARGE AND POWERFUL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 59.2W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.2 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east
of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the
United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals
are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within
these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 082045
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.2W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......190NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.2W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 58.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 160SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 54.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 190SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 62.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...MERGED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 59.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 081740
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...LARRY GETTING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 58.9W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 58.9 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east
of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, but
Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United
States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals
are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within
these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 081453
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

Larry's eye has been only faintly apparent on recent satellite
imagery, but the hurricane is still maintaining a fair amount of
deep convection near/around the center. An Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and
observations found that the central pressure has risen only slightly
since yesterday, with peak flight level winds of 118 kt in the
northeastern quadrant. However, the highest SFMR-observed surface
winds were only 75 kt, indicating that the strong winds aloft are
not very effectively being transported to the surface. Given this,
along with the slightly-degraded appearance of the system, the
current intensity is reduced to 95 kt, which is just a bit above the
latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at a slightly faster clip, or
320/11 kt. Over the next 36 to 48 hours, Larry is expected to move
around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure area
and pass to the east of Bermuda. Thereafter, the cyclone should
accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough moving through
the northeastern United States and become embedded within the
mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This will take Larry near or over
southeastern Newfoundland in 60-66 hours and then over the far
North Atlantic. The official forecast track has not changed
significantly from those in the previous few advisories, and
remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA.

Larry should remain in an environment of low vertical shear and
warm surface waters for the next 36-48 hours. However, the oceanic
heat content beneath the hurricane should be gradually decreasing
during the next few days. Only slow weakening is forecast, similar
to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. In about
72 hours, the global models indicate that Larry will become
embedded within a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast shows it as an
extratropical cyclone by that time. In 5 days or less, the system
is expected to merge with another large cyclone at high latitudes.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and
Bermuda. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal
flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition
to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing
risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in
portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates
to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 27.7N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 29.1N 59.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 34.7N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 44.4N 55.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 50.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 61.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z...MERGED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 081452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...LARRY STILL A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...
...CAUSING DANGEROUS SWELLS ON THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST
THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 58.3W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 58.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected
by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass
east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, but
Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week.
Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting
these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically
impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals
are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within
these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 081450
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 58.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 58.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 57.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.1N 59.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.7N 61.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.4N 55.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 50.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 190SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 61.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...MERGED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 58.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 081156
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...LARRY CAUSING DANGEROUS SWELLS ON THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST
THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 57.7W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), Hurricane Larry was located near latitude
27.0 North, longitude 57.7 West. Larry is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and
north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. A
faster northeastward motion is expected by Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
several days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during
that time.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week.
Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting
these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 080850
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

Larry's overall satellite presentation has not changed appreciably
overnight, however there has been some recent cooling of the cloud
tops in the surrounding ring of convection. A fairly recent AMSR2
microwave overpass has revealed a fragmented inner eye with a band
or ring of convection at a fairly large radius from the center.
Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB
are T5.0 (90 kt) while objective UW/CIMSS ADT T-numbers are around
T5.8 (110 kt). A consensus of these estimates, and the latest
SATCON estimate of 100 kt, is used as the initial intensity for this
advisory. The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Larry this morning and should provide in
situ data to help better ascertain the intensity and structure of
the hurricane.

Larry continues to move northwestward or 325/9 kt. The track
forecast reasoning is once again unchanged from before. Larry is
expected to move northwestward and then northward around the
western portion of a deep-layer ridge during the next 36 to 48
hours, with the center of the hurricane passing east of Bermuda on
Thursday. After that time, Larry should begin to accelerate
northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be moving
across the northeastern United States, and this will bring the
cyclone near or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 72 hours.
The track guidance continues to be in excellent agreement, and only
slight modifications were made to the previous official forecast.
The updated NHC track is near the various consensus aids and the
latest GFS ensemble mean.

The hurricane is forecast to remain within an area of low vertical
wind shear for the next day or two, but the upper-ocean heat
content will be gradually decreasing along the forecast path.
This, along with some upwelling beneath the relatively slow-moving
hurricane, is likely to result in gradual weakening over the next
couple of days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and
much colder SSTs along the forecast track should result in
additional weakening. The global models indicate that Larry will
merge with a frontal zone and complete its extratropical transition
in a little more than 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is once
again similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement
with the IVCN consensus aid.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas
today. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall
and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts
from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of
Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of
Larry and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 26.5N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 28.0N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 30.1N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 32.9N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 36.7N 61.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 47.3N 52.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 58.8N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 65.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 080848
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...LARGE LARRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
...DANGEROUS SWELLS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 57.3W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Larry was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 57.3 West. Larry is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. A faster northeastward motion is expected
by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass
east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next several days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane
during that time.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week.
Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting
these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 080848
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 57.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 57.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 57.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.0N 58.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.1N 60.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.9N 61.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.7N 61.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 47.3N 52.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 190SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 58.8N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 65.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 57.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 080547
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021

...LARRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...DANGEROUS SWELLS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES
THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 57.1W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane
Larry was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 57.1 West.
Larry is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn
toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward
speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next
several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward
Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week.
Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting
these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 080243
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

Larry's eye has become a little better defined since the previous
advisory, and the eyewall convective cloud tops have cooled, with a
nearly solid ring of -65C to -70C now surrounding the eye. Data from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure has risen slightly to 966-968 mb and that peak
700-mb flight-level winds measured were 106 kt in the northeast
quadrant. These data would suggest that the intensity has decreased
a little to 95-96 kt. However, the peak flight-level wind of 106 kt
was measured in the wake of a strong eyewall convective burst,
suggesting that stronger winds could have been present in that
convection. Also, if the surrounding eyewall convective ring closes
off during the nocturnal convective maximum period in another six
hours, then Dvorak intensity estimates would increase from the
current T5.0/90 kt to T5.5/102 kt. Thus, Larry's intensity has been
maintained at 100 kt for this advisory in order to avoid possible
intensity vacillations.

The initial motion estimate is 325/10 kt, based on reconnaissance
aircraft fixes over the past 12 hours. There remains no significant
change to the track forecast or reasoning over the past 48 hours.
The latest NHC model guidance remains in strong agreement on Larry
continuing to move northwestward and then northward around the
western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge during the next
48 hours or so. After passing east of Bermuda by early day 3, the
hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward and move into the
mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a large, eastward-moving trough
that is currently approaching the northeastern United States and
Atlantic Canada. By day 5, Larry is expected to move across the far
north Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and lies along the eastern edge of the
tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models.

Larry's upper-level outflow pattern remains impressive, and has
even expanded and accelerated on the east side owing to a
southward-digging upper-level trough, which has enhanced the
outflow in that part of the hurricane. The vertical wind shear
affecting Larry is expected to remain low for the next 24 hours or
so while the hurricane passes over even warmer sea-surface
temperatures (SST) approaching 29.7 deg C, even though the oceanic
heat content will be decreasing. However, entrainment of dry
mid-level air along with eye fluctuations are expected to offset the
warmer SSTs. Thus, a slow but steady decrease in intensity through
48-60 hours is expected. Late in the forecast period, colder waters
and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear exceeding 30 kt
should induce a faster rate of weakening. By 96-120 hours, the
global models also indicate Larry will be merging with a frontal
zone. Therefore, the new intensity forecast continues to show
extratropical transition during that time period. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely
follows the simple- and corrected-consensus intensity models IVCN
and NOAA-HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas
through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall
and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts
from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of
Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of
Larry and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 25.8N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 27.2N 58.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 44.5N 55.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 56.2N 43.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0000Z 62.8N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 080242
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...LARGE LARRY CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 56.8W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane
Larry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 56.8 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry
should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.
Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the
end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 080242
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 56.8W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 56.8W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 56.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.2N 58.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.5N 55.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 56.2N 43.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 62.8N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 56.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 072355
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS LARGE LARRY A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...
...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 56.5W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane
Larry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 56.5 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry
should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next
several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the
end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 072054
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

After becoming rather ragged-looking in earlier satellite images,
Larry's eye has become a little better defined recently, and the
surrounding deep convection is more or less maintaining its
strength. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the central pressure has fallen slightly, to 965 mb. Peak
flight-level winds from the aircraft were 110 kt so the advisory
intensity is kept at 100 kt. This is also consistent with a Dvorak
Current Intensity number from TAFB.

Larry continues its northwestward motion at about 320/8 kt. The
hurricane should move around the western side of a deep-layer
subtropical anticyclone during the next 48-60 hours. After passing
Bermuda, the system is likely to accelerate northeastward while
moving into the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a trough moving
from the northeastern United States to Atlantic Canada, and move
into the far north Atlantic by day 5. The official track forecast
stays close to the previous NHC prediction, and remains in good
agreement the various model consensus solutions.

The hurricane continues to exhibit well-defined upper-level outflow,
indicative of weak vertical shear. Over the next couple of days,
Larry will be traversing waters of gradually decreasing oceanic heat
content. This, combined with some dry mid-level air in the
environment, should lead to a gradual decrease in intensity through
48-60 hours. Later in the forecast period, colder waters and strong
shear should cause more rapid weakening. By day 4, the global
models show Larry merging with a frontal zone. Therefore, the NHC
forecast calls for extratropical transition by that time. The
official intensity forecast is generally below the
statistical-dynamical guidance and above the coupled dynamical
hurricane models through 72 hours, but in good agreement with the
model consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas
through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall
and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.

3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern
Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it transitions to a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is a risk of impacts
from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of
Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor the progress of
Larry and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 25.1N 56.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 28.3N 58.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 30.5N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 53.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 60.0N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 072052
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...LARGE LARRY STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 56.3W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 56.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry
should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the
end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 072052
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 56.3W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 56.3W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 55.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.3N 58.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 60.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 56.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 071748
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...LARGE LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 55.8W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 55.8 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry
should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the
end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 071459
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated
Larry a little while ago and found that the hurricane has weakened
somewhat. The central pressure has risen to 967 mb, and the eyewall
is becoming less well defined. Satellite imagery shows that the eye
is still evident but the deep convection has has decreased in
coverage and intensity. Using a blend of flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft gives a current
intensity estimate of 100 kt, although this may be generous.

The hurricane continues to move northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Larry
is forecast to move around the western periphery of a subtropical
anticyclone during the next couple of days. By 72 hours, the
system should begin to accelerate northeastward on the eastern side
of a mid-tropospheric trough moving through the northeastern United
States. Thereafter, Larry should be well-embedded in the
higher-latitude southwesterly flow, pass near Newfoundland and move
into the far North Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The
official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one
and in very close agreement with the latest NOAA corrected
consensus and Florida State University (FSU) Superensemble tracks.

Larry is in a low-shear environment with fairly well-defined
upper-level outflow. However dry mid-level air and possible
upwelling of cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation
appear to be at least partially responsible for weakening. Since
the environment does not appear to be very hostile for the next
couple of days, only slow weakening is anticipated. The official
intensity forecast for the next 48-72 hours lies below the
statistical dynamical Decay-SHIPS guidance and above the coupled-
HWRF dynamical model prediction. By 96 hours, the FSU cyclone
phase analysis indicates that Larry will have undergone an
extratropical transition, and this is also shown in the official
forecast.

Larry is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large
hurricane. Given the expansive size of Larry's wind field and
forecast uncertainties, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
for the island.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas
through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on
Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions
are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall
and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 24.4N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 31.8N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 34.9N 61.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 50.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 071459
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 55.6W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 55.6 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry
should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several
days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 071458
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 55.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 55.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.8N 61.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.9N 61.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 50.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 55.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 070848
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

Larry has maintained a very warm, pronounced eye with a diameter of
around 45 to 50 n mi overnight. However, recent infrared satellite
imagery and earlier microwave data show some weaknesses in the
western eyewall of the hurricane, potentially signaling the
entrainment of some drier air into its inner core. This could be the
result of some moderate westerly shear impinging on the system. The
initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt for this advisory, based on a
0520 UTC SATCON estimate of 103 kt and T5.5/102 kt current intensity
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter reconnaissance flight is scheduled to investigate Larry later
this morning, which should provide more insight into the hurricane's
structure and intensity.

Larry is moving toward the northwest at 315/9 kt, as the hurricane
is being steered around a subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic. This general motion is expected to continue for the next
48 h or so. By Thursday, the hurricane is forecast to turn northward
within the flow between the ridge and an approaching deep-layer
trough that will be crossing the northeastern United States. As the
trough moves over the western Atlantic, Larry should accelerate
northeastward deeper into the mid-latitudes on Friday and Saturday,
passing near or over portions of Atlantic Canada. The latest NHC
track forecast lies near the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and no
significant adjustments were made from the previous forecast. Larry
is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large
hurricane. Given the expansive size of its wind field, a Tropical
Storm Watch could be required for the island later today.

Although the warm sea-surface temperatures and diminishing vertical
wind shear along Larry's forecast track appear favorable during the
next couple of days, it may not be able to take advantage of these
conditions due to its large size, as well as the potential for
another eyewall replacement cycle. As previously noted, Larry's
broad wind field and moderate forward speed could also result in
some upwelling of cooler waters near its inner core. There remains a
split in the intensity guidance, with the statistical-dynamical
guidance notably higher than the coupled atmosphere-ocean models.
The official NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening of
Larry during the next several days. Nonetheless, Larry will remain a
forceful hurricane that continues to produce significant swell with
far-reaching impacts through the week. After 72 h, Larry should
begin its extratropical transition, and the official forecast shows
Larry becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the
Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas
through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of
the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue
affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells
will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,
and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next couple of
days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong
winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by
Thursday. Tropical storm watches could be needed for the island
later today, and interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the
latest forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 23.8N 55.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 28.4N 59.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 37.1N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 47.7N 52.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 57.0N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 070845
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE LARRY THIS MORNING...
...LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 55.1W
ABOUT 830 MI...1340 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Larry. A
tropical storm watch could be required for the island today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 55.1 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 070844
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0900 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LARRY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 55.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 360SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 55.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.4N 59.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.3N 61.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.1N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 47.7N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 57.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 55.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 070253
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

Larry has changed little in geostationary satellite imagery since
the NOAA P-3 aircraft left the storm after 2130 UTC. Data from the
mission showed that the hurricane possessed a very large wind field,
and there were occasional hints in the flight-level wind data of an
outer wind maxima trying to develop. The most recent passive
microwave imagery from a 2148 UTC SSMIS pass showed some evidence of
secondary bands forming away from the primary eyewall, though the
inner eye remains large and distinct. Whether or not this will be
the start of another eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) remains to be
seen. For now, both the subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and
TAFB remain unchanged from earlier today, so Larry's intensity has
been maintained at 110 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane continues to move to the northwest at 325/9 kt, guided
along the southwestern periphery of a prominent subtropical ridge.
Larry will reach the westward extent of this ridge in 60-72 hours as
a large deep-layer trough approaches from the northeastern United
States. The latest guidance now shows this trough capturing Larry
towards the end of the forecast period, resulting in an abrupt
acceleration to the northeast as the hurricane is steered by the
strong westerly flow ahead of the mid-latitude trough. The track
guidance continues to be in great agreement with Larry's forecast
track, and only a few minor adjustments were needed to the most
recent forecast, staying near the middle of the track guidance
envelope. This latest forecast continues to show Larry passing to
the east of Bermuda on Thursday. However, given Larry's large size,
some impacts could still be felt even if the center passes well
east, and a tropical storm watch could be needed for the island as
soon as tomorrow morning.

The intensity forecast for Larry over the next few days is likely to
be controlled by changes to its inner-core structure. If another ERC
begins soon, this could result in a short-term drop off in maximum
sustained winds as the hurricane's wind field expands. As mentioned
last night, the broadening wind field, in combination with Larry's
slow motion currently at 9 kt, could also result in more ocean
upwelling closer to Larry's inner core. While the latest SHIPS
guidance depicts warm sea-surface temperatures along the track of
Larry over the next 2-3 days, the oceanic heat content in this part
of the Atlantic basin is not very high. This might explain why the
atmosphere-ocean coupled models (COAMPS-TC, HWRF, HAFS-B) show more
significant weakening with a gradually decaying inner-core over
cooler upwelled waters. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower
than the previous one, giving a bit more weight to the dynamically
coupled hurricane models versus the statistical-dynamical guidance.
However, even this latest forecast is higher than the reliable HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). Regardless of these intensity
details, Larry is expected to remain a large and powerful
hurricane over the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda tonight and tomorrow. Significant swells should reach
the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek
and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts
are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials
this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next few days as
a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of
this week. Interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates during the next few days, and tropical storm
watches could be needed for the island as soon as tomorrow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 23.1N 54.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 24.1N 55.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 44.0N 55.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 55.5N 43.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 070247
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

...LARRY REMAINS A LARGE FORMIDABLE HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 54.4W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Larry. A
tropical storm watch could be required for the island tomorrow.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Larry
was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 54.4 West. Larry is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed
by a turn toward the north-northwest and north on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Very gradual weakening is forecast over the
next several days.

Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.


SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas tonight
and tomorrow, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant
swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the
end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 070246
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0300 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LARRY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND TOMORROW.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 54.4W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 330SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 54.4W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 54.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 55.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 44.0N 55.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 55.5N 43.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 54.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 062045
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

NOAA aircraft have been investigating Larry for much of this
afternoon, providing valuable information regarding the structure
and intensity of the hurricane. Peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
110 kt with SFMR winds of 101 kt were measured in the northwestern
eyewall a couple of hours ago, supporting an intensity of about 100
kt in that portion of the cyclone. During that pass through the
hurricane, the aircraft tail Doppler radar measured winds of 121 kt
at a height of 3 km in the northeastern eyewall, which equate to
about 109 kt at the surface. Therefore, the initial intensity has
been adjusted up to 110 kt for this advisory. A pair of dropsondes
into the eye of Larry measured a minimum central pressure of 956 mb.
Both the aircraft and earlier ASCAT data indicated that
hurricane-force winds extend up to 60 n mi from the center, while
tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 160 n mi from the center.

Larry is maintaining its stable, annular structure with a very
large, mostly clear eye. The environment surrounding Larry is not
forecast to change much over the next couple of days, so only some
minor fluctuations in intensity are anticipated during that time. By
72 hours, decreasing sea-surface temperatures and an increase in
vertical wind shear should cause the hurricane to begin weakening.
The only change to the NHC intensity forecast was a 5-kt increase
through the first few days to accommodate the adjustment required to
the initial intensity. By the end of the forecast period, Larry is
expected to transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone. The
latest NHC forecast remains on the high end of the guidance, closest
to the Decay-SHIPS model.

The hurricane continues to move northwest at 9 kt to the southwest
of a subtropical ridge. The forecast track confidence has remained
high over the past few days. Larry should continue its northwestward
motion through Wednesday, and then reach the western periphery of
the ridge in a few days, causing the cyclone to begin a turn to the
north, then northeast late this week. This track would bring Larry
on its closest approach to Bermuda on Thursday. After turning
northeast, the cyclone should accelerate into the mid-latitude
westerlies. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and remains near the middle of tightly clustered track
guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda today through Tuesday. Significant swells should reach
the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek
and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts
are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials
this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next few days as
a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of
this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these
hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should
closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.5N 53.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.4N 55.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 28.3N 59.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 33.1N 61.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 41.2N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 51.7N 46.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 062044
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

...NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS LARRY SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 53.9W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 53.9 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual weakening
is forecast.

Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser
Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through
Tuesday, and Bermuda through late this week. Significant swells
should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 062044
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
2100 UTC MON SEP 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 53.9W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 53.9W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 53.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 55.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.3N 59.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.1N 61.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 41.2N 57.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 51.7N 46.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 53.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 061455
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

Larry currently has an annular structure, with a 60 n-mi diameter
eye and a relatively thick eyewall. High-resolution visible imagery
shows several meso-vortices rotating within the eye, which is
typically observed in strong hurricanes. The upper-level outflow
has become better defined over the western portion of the
circulation, indicative of decreased shear in comparison to
yesterday. The advisory intensity is kept at 105 kt, in reasonable
agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Larry has slowed its forward speed a bit, and is now moving
northwestward near 9 kt. There are no important changes in the
track forecast or reasoning from the previous advisory. During the
next few days, the hurricane is expected to move around the western
periphery of a subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic,
turning northward and northeastward. At this time, Larry is
forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to
the island on Thursday. Given Larry's large size, some impacts
could be felt even if the center remains well east of the island as
forecast. In 3-5 days, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward
ahead of a large mid-tropospheric trough moving through the
northeastern United States. The official track forecast follows the
latest dynamical model consensus, and remains close to the previous
one. Since the model guidance is in good agreement, this continues
to be a high-confidence track forecast.

Vertical shear is expected to remain low and the system will
continue to traverse warm SSTs for the next few days. However, the
presence of dry mid-level air and the broad nature of the
hurricane's inner core will probably mitigate against significant
restrengthening. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible for
the next 48 hours or so. In 3-5 days, cooler waters and increasing
shear should cause gradual weakening. Around the end of the
forecast period, the global models show the system beginning to
merge with a frontal zone near Newfoundland. The official forecast
is on the high side of the model guidance suite and close to the
latest Decay-SHIPS prediction.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda today through Tuesday. Significant swells should reach
the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek
and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts
are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials
this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next few days as
a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of
this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these
hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should
closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.1N 52.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 23.1N 54.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 24.5N 55.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 25.9N 56.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 27.5N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 38.6N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 49.0N 49.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 061454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

...POWERFUL LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 52.9W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1015 MI...1630 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 52.9 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual weakening
is forecast.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda today through Tuesday.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 061453
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC MON SEP 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 52.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 52.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 52.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.1N 54.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 55.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.9N 56.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 38.6N 60.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 49.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 52.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 060852
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

Recent microwave data indicate that Larry has likely completed an
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The 0530 UTC AMSR2 imagery reveals
that the hurricane now has a large, single eyewall structure with an
eye diameter greater than 50 n mi, in contrast with the concentric
eyewall structure noted yesterday. Larry's large eye appears
somewhat ragged in conventional satellite imagery, as some
convective debris clouds associated with the old eyewall continue to
erode. Earlier scatterometer data confirmed that the 50- and 64-kt
wind radii of Larry have broadened, likely as a result of the ERC.
Based on a blend of the 102-kt Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
and a 107-kt ADT current intensity estimate, the initial intensity
is set at 105 kt for this advisory. NOAA aircraft is scheduled to
conduct a research mission into Larry later today, which should
provide more information about Larry's structure and intensity.

Larry is moving northwestward, or 305/10 kt. The track forecast for
Larry remains of high confidence. The hurricane is expected to
continue moving northwestward through midweek along the western
periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic. On Thursday, Larry is forecast to turn northward within
the flow of an upper-level trough that is expected to move off the
coast of the northeastern United States. By Friday, Larry should
accelerate northeastward and recurve into the mid-latitudes, passing
near or offshore Atlantic Canada. The latest track guidance is
tightly clustered once again. Thus, the official NHC track forecast
is virtually unchanged from the previous one and remains near the
consensus aids HCCA and TVCA. Larry is forecast to pass east of
Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday.
Given Larry's large size, some impacts could be felt even if the
center remains well east of the island as forecast.

The intensity forecast remains more complex. Now that the ERC is
likely completed, some strengthening cannot be ruled out in the
near-term if the large, consolidated eyewall is able to contract.
However, the SHIPS guidance suggests some weak to moderate westerly
shear is still present, and Larry's broad wind field could result in
some upwelling of cooler waters that may inhibit intensification.
Ultimately, these mixed signals suggest that some intensity
fluctuations could occur over the next 24-36 h, and so the NHC
intensity forecast shows little net change during this time.
Thereafter, only gradual weakening is shown as the large hurricane
will remain in a reasonably favorable environment of weak to
moderate shear and warm SSTs through the 72-96 h period. By day 5,
the cyclone will likely be in the process of extratropical
transition, still as a powerful cyclone. Overall, the NHC intensity
forecast lies on the higher end of the guidance, between the
stronger statistical-dynamical models DSHP/LGEM and the weaker
multi-model consensus aids IVCN/HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda today through Tuesday. Significant swells should reach
the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek
and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts
are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials
this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next few days as
a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of
this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these
hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should
closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 21.5N 52.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.6N 53.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 36.7N 61.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 45.5N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 060847
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

...LARGE LARRY STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC
SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 52.4 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next
couple of days. A slightly faster northwestward motion is forecast
by early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual weakening
is forecast.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles
and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda today through Tuesday.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores
through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 060846
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0900 UTC MON SEP 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 52.4W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 55 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 52.4W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 53.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 55SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.6N 60.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 36.7N 61.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 45.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 52.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 060401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 92.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2021 16.5N 92.8W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 103.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2021 15.2N 103.8W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 51.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2021 20.6N 51.3W INTENSE
12UTC 06.09.2021 21.8N 52.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2021 23.1N 54.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2021 24.2N 55.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2021 25.8N 56.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2021 27.4N 58.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2021 29.2N 60.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2021 31.4N 61.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2021 34.8N 62.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2021 39.6N 60.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2021 46.3N 55.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2021 53.7N 49.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2021 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 18.5N 108.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2021 18.5N 108.8W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2021 18.3N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2021 18.4N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2021 19.2N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2021 20.2N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2021 20.8N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2021 21.4N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 32.4N 19.0E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2021 31.7N 21.1E WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2021 30.7N 23.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060401

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 060252
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

A series of afternoon and evening passive microwave imagery indicate
that Larry has evolved from an earlier stable eyewall structure to
one with concentric eyewalls. The most recent microwave pass, a 2201
UTC SSMIS overpass, showed that Larry is likely in the latter stages
of this most recent eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), with a new
outer eyewall radius of nearly 50 nautical miles. However,
geostationary satellite imagery still shows quite a bit of inner
eyewall convection and it may take a while longer before this ERC is
complete. A recent ASCAT-A pass at 2339 UTC also indicated that
Larry's inner-core wind field had expanded further, likely related
to this recent ERC. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB/SAB remain unchanged from this afternoon, and the initial
intensity remains 110 kt this advisory. A NOAA P-3 aircraft will be
conducting a research mission into the Larry tomorrow and should
provide some helpful in-situ measurements to verify the hurricane's
intensity.

Larry's motion to the northwest continues to gradually slow down,
with the latest estimated motion at 310/10 kt. The forecast track
reasoning remains the same. Larry should maintain its northwestward
heading for the next 2-3 days as it remains steered around the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the hurricane's
northeast. After 72 hours, Larry will be reaching the western extent
of this ridge while an amplifying mid-latitude trough will be
approaching from the northeastern United States. The combination of
these features should help Larry recurve, first to the north, and
then northeast with accelerating forward motion by the end of the
forecast period. The track guidance continues to be in excellent
agreement, and very few changes were made to the track forecast this
cycle, staying close to the consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

The intensity forecast with Larry is somewhat tricky. Larry's wind
field continues to grow, following the multiple ERCs that have
occurred over the past few days. At the same time, Larry's forward
motion has gradually been slowing down, with the latest estimate
down to 10 kts. The combination of Larry's widening wind field with
its slower forward motion opens the storm up to possible upwelling
of cooler ocean waters near its inner-core. In fact, a drifting buoy
that Larry moved over in the past 24 hours showed a significant drop
in sea-surface temperatures from 27.5 C to less than 26 C. These
in-situ measurements are helpful, because they are lower than the
SHIPS-derived sea-surface temperature values and more consistent
with the upwelling recently forecast by the HWRF model. Adding to
the forecast complexity is the ongoing ERC which could be ending
over the next 6-12 hours. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one for the first 24 hours, showing little
change in intensity after ERC completion. Thereafter, while
dynamical conditions near Larry are expected to become more
favorable (lower vertical wind shear), the anticipated upwelling
from Larry's large wind field as the storm moves slowly
northwestward is forecast to result in gradual decay. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one after
48 hours, following the latest HCCA consensus aid closely. However,
Larry's wind field is also forecast to expand over this time period,
making the cyclone a prolific swell and surf producer.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are already affecting the Lesser
Antilles and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells
should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along
these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local
officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several
days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong
winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the
middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the
magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda,
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates
during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 21.0N 51.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.2N 54.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 24.6N 55.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 26.0N 56.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 27.6N 58.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 29.4N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 34.4N 61.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 42.9N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 060247
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

...LARGE LARRY LUMBERING ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 51.4W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 51.4 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a slight decrease in forward speed over
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next day or so, with very gradual weakening thereafter.

Larry is a large and expanding hurricane. Hurricane-force winds now
extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are reaching the Lesser Antilles
and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 060245
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 51.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 51.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 51.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N 54.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 55.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.0N 56.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.6N 58.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.4N 59.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 34.4N 61.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 42.9N 55.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 51.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 052054
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

The overall structure of Larry has changed little today. A large eye
remains surrounded by a cold ring of convection with cloud tops of
-75 to -80 C. The only notable difference between now and several
hours ago has been that some cloud cover has become evident within
the eye. A blend of the latest T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB
suggest that the initial intensity remains 110 kt.

Larry is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt, around the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. There has been no
change to the forecast track reasoning, nor has there been any
notable change to the NHC forecast track from the previous advisory,
due to the forecast models remaining in excellent agreement. A
northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next few days
to the southwest of the ridge. In a few days, the hurricane is
forecast to reach the western periphery of this ridge, resulting in
the cyclone beginning gradual recurvature to the north then
northeast into the mid-latitude westerlies.

Other than some minor fluctuations in intensity due to internal
influences, the stable, annular-like structure of Larry should allow
for it to remain a major hurricane for the next couple of days,
despite being surrounded by some mid-level dry air. By day 4, the
cyclone is forecast to move over waters of progressively decreasing
oceanic heat content, which should induce gradual weakening. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA and DSHP, which have
been two of the best performing models for Larry's intensity thus
far.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles,
the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells
should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along
these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local
officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several
days, likely as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds,
heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of
this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these
hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should
closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 20.5N 50.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 21.6N 51.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.7N 53.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 32.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 39.8N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 052049
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

...LARRY REMAINS A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 50.6W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 50.6 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next few days, although fluctuations in intensity will be
possible. However, Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane
through the middle of this week.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are reaching the Lesser Antilles
and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.
Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 052047
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
2100 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 50.6W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 150SE 70SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 210SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 50.6W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 50.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 51.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 53.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.9N 54.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.3N 56.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.8N 57.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 32.8N 61.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 39.8N 58.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 50.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 051445
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

Larry continues as a large and intense hurricane this morning, with
a 40 n mi diameter eye surround by cloud tops to near -80 deg C.
There are, however, some breaks in the cold tops over the northern
portion of the circulation. The current intensity is adjusted
slightly to 110 kt, based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB along with objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS.
Upper-level outflow remains somewhat restricted over the
southwestern quadrant of the system, indicative of at least slight
vertical shear. This shear is probably being caused by the flow to
the east of an upper-level low to the north of Puerto Rico. The low
is forecast to move northwestward over the next few days, possibly
lessening the shear over Larry.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at a slightly slower speed, or
310/11 kt. Larry is likely to continue its northwestward trek
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone
during the next 2-3 days, with only a slight reduction in forward
speed. Around 96 hours, the hurricane is forecast to turn toward
the north-northwest and north while rounding the western side of
the ridge. By the end of the forecast period, Larry is expected to
begin its recurvature into the mid-latitude westerlies. The new
official forecast track essentially follows the previous one, and is
also very close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus and Florida
State University Superensemble guidance.

Larry's large eye suggests that no rapid changes in strength are
likely during the short term. Since vertical shear is not expected
to increase and the system will be traversing warm waters, the
hurricane should be able to more or less maintain its intensity
during the next few days. One inhibiting factor is the presence of
relatively dry mid-level air in the environment. The official
intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance and
keeps Larry as a major hurricane through 72 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles,
the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells
will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests
along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and
local officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several
days, likely as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong
winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the
middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the
magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda,
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates
during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 19.5N 49.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 20.5N 51.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 21.9N 52.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.0N 54.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.3N 55.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.7N 56.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 31.1N 61.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 37.4N 60.6W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 051444
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

...LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 49.7W
ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 49.7 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next few days, although fluctuations in intensity will be
possible. Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane through the
middle of this week.

Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles today, and will spread westward to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.
Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United
States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 051444
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 150SE 70SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.7W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 49.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 51.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.9N 52.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 55.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.7N 56.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 31.1N 61.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 37.4N 60.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 49.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 050855
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

Larry remains a powerful hurricane this morning. The system has a
warm, well-defined eye with a large diameter of around 40 n mi.
Larry's central dense overcast has become more symmetric overnight,
although the upper-level outflow is still somewhat restricted on the
southwestern side of the hurricane. This is likely an indication of
some vertical wind shear impinging on the cyclone. However, recent
AMSR2 microwave data indicate that the vortex is still well-aligned
vertically, with a pronounced eyewall that slopes outward with
height. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt for this advisory
based on consensus T5.5/102 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB, and a recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 105 kt.

The initial motion of Larry is northwestward, or 305/12 kt. Larry is
expected to continue moving northwestward for the next several days
around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge over the
central Atlantic. By Thursday, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate
northward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will move off the east
coast of the United States later this week. The latest track
guidance is very tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast is
similar to the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus
aids. Confidence remains high in Larry's track forecast given the
excellent model agreement. The hurricane is still expected to make
its closest approach to Bermuda at days 4 and 5, but it remains too
early to pinpoint how close it will come to the island. Even if the
center passes east of Bermuda as forecast, it could still be large
enough to produce some impacts on the island.

Over the next few days, some fluctuations in Larry's intensity are
possible. The oceanic heat content along the forecast track is
certainly sufficient for some intensification. However, vertical
wind shear associated with an upper-level trough/low to the west of
Larry may inhibit strengthening at times during the next couple of
days, especially if the stronger shear values in the ECMWF-based
SHIPS guidance are realized. Given Larry's large eye size, it does
not appear as if the cyclone is poised to significantly intensify.
The official NHC intensity forecast shows slight strengthening in
the near-term, but then levels off the intensity through 48 h. The
NHC forecast keeps Larry at major hurricane intensity through day 4,
as the environment appears favorable enough between 48-96 h for
Larry to maintain its organization, even as the cyclone gains
latitude. Overall, this forecast lies on the high end of the
intensity guidance, above the HFIP corrected consensus approach
(HCCA) and the other multi-model consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles today and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles,
the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells
will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic
Canada by midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests
along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and
local officials this week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several
days, possibly as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong
winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the
middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the
magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda,
interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates
during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 18.8N 49.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 21.2N 52.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 22.4N 53.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.6N 55.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 25.0N 56.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 36.5N 61.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 050849
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG MANY WESTERN
ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO LARGE SWELLS FROM LARRY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 49.0W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 49.0 West. Larry is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next few days, although fluctuations in intensity will be
possible. Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane through the
middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). A
drifting buoy near the center of Larry recently measured a pressure
of 962.9 mb (28.43 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles today, and will spread westward to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday.
Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United
States and Atlantic Canada by midweek. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 050845
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0900 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 49.0W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 70SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 49.0W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 52.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 53.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 55.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 56.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 36.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 050234
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

Larry has developed a large eye this evening that is 40-45 n mi in
diameter, and the surrounding cloud tops have warmed somewhat.
There have been no microwave passes over the hurricane for quite
some time to assess its structure, but conventional satellite images
suggest that Larry has taken on some annular characteristics (and
the objective screening algorithm tagged it as marginally annular).
Dvorak CI numbers and objective estimates are all between 100-102
kt, so Larry's initial intensity is lowered slightly to 105 kt.

Larry's motion remains west-northwestward (300 degrees) at 12 kt.
The hurricane is expected to turn northwestward tonight or early
Sunday around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
centered over the central Atlantic, and then maintain that heading
with some decrease in forward speed through day 4. By day 5, Larry
should turn northward and accelerate between the high and an
approaching deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. The
updated NHC track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous
advisory and is of high confidence since there is lower-than-normal
spread among the track models. Larry is forecast to make its
closest approach to Bermuda in 4 to 5 days while it recurves around
the ridge, but despite the high-confidence forecast, there is still
uncertainty on how close that approach will be since several GEFS
and ECMWF ensemble members bring Larry's center very close to or
over the island. Even with a track east of the island, Larry will
be large enough to possibly cause some impacts on Bermuda.

Water vapor imagery shows some restriction to the outflow in the
southwestern quadrant, which could be indicative of some shear.
There continues to be some discrepancy among the models on how much
shear the hurricane will contend with as it approaches a
mid-/upper-level trough located north of the Leeward Islands. The
GFS keeps the shear over Larry fairly low since it's farther from
the trough, while the ECMWF increases the shear to moderate or
strong levels during the next 48 hours. If Larry reaches the area
of stronger shear, its intensity would obviously be adversely
affected. In terms of structure, significant re-intensification is
now less likely since Larry has such a large eye and an expanding
wind field. On the positive side, the hurricane will be moving
over gradually warmer waters for the next 3 days or so. Given
these conflicting factors, the updated NHC intensity forecast allows
for some slight restrengthening in the short term but then keeps
Larry's intensity steady for the next 3 days. Many of the intensity
models are even lower than what's shown in this forecast, so
additional adjustments may be required in future advisories.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles on Sunday and will spread to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday and Tuesday. Significant
swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada around midweek. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several
days, possibly as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong
winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the
middle of next week. While it is too soon to determine the
magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda,
interests there should monitor changes to the forecast during the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 18.0N 48.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 19.1N 49.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 20.5N 51.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 21.7N 53.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 23.0N 54.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 24.2N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 25.8N 57.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 29.4N 60.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 35.1N 61.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 050233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG MANY WESTERN
ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK DUE TO LARRY'S LARGE SWELLS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 48.0W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Larry was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 48.0 West. Larry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected overnight, with Larry maintaining
that heading at gradually slower speeds through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next few days, although fluctuations in intensity will be
possible. Larry is expected to remain a major hurricane through
the middle of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday, and will spread westward to portions of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday and Tuesday.
Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United
States and Atlantic Canada around midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 050232
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0300 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 48.0W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 70SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 48.0W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 47.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 49.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 51.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.7N 53.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.2N 56.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.8N 57.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 29.4N 60.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 35.1N 61.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 042056
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

Larry remains a formidable hurricane this afternoon. Both visible
and infrared satellite bands show the hurricane has a well-defined
and warm eye (greater than 10 C) surrounded by a cold ring of
eyewall convection (-60 to -70 C). An AMSR2 microwave pass received
at 1630 UTC showed the well-defined eye of Larry, though the 89 GHz
channel hinted that the eyewall was weaker on its eastern side.
Taking a look at the high-density atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs),
available thanks to a GOES-16 1-minute updating domain over Larry,
there is some restriction of Larry's outflow to the southwest.
Flight-level wind data from the NASA-DC8 aircraft conducting a
research mission around Larry also showed some light southwesterly
flow between 10-20 kt just a few degrees to the south and west of
the storm center. These data suggest that the upper-level wind
environment is not as pristine as earlier suggested by SHIPS
guidance, with the southwesterly flow likely restricting Larry's
outflow in that quadrant. The SAB/TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates are unchanged from this morning, and the latest UW-CIMSS
ADT and SATCON estimates have also plateaued in the 105-110 kt
range. Therefore, Larry was maintained as a 110 kt hurricane this
advisory.

Larry remains on a west-northwest track this afternoon, but a bit
slower at 300/12 kt. There has been little change to the track
philosophy over the next several days, as the guidance is in good
agreement that Larry will maintain a continued west-northwest
heading while gradually slowing down as it rounds the southern
periphery of a large mid-level ridge. However, there has been a
notable eastward shift in the track guidance in the short-term. The
latest ECMWF run, which had previously been on the southwest side of
the track guidance envelope, is now very similar or even a tad east
of the latest GFS run. This shift has also resulted in an eastward
adjustment in the consensus aids this afternoon. The latest NHC
track forecast was adjusted a bit to the right early on, but not as
far right as the HCCA and TVCA aids. After 72 hours, the track
guidance actually converges very close to the previous track
forecast, and few changes were needed after this time period. Based
on this forecast, Larry will continue moving across the central
Atlantic in the coming days, and be approaching Bermuda from the
southeast in the day 4 to 5 forecast period.

The existence of some light upper-level southwesterly flow ahead of
Larry today was bit of a surprise, since the SHIPS guidance from the
last few days suggested the shear-vector would be out of the east
and weak. Indeed, the latest ECMWF-SHIPS guidance now shows moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear beginning earlier, and peaking
between 20-25 knots in 36 to 48 hours. While the GFS-SHIPS shear
remains much lower, given what I'm seeing from the latest
upper-level flow in front of Larry, the ECMWF seems closer to
correct. For this reason, the latest NHC intensity guidance now
shows a bit of weakening after 24 hours, when the shear magnitude is
expected to peak as the hurricane interacts with a large tropical
upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) located to its northwest. However,
Larry has a large and vertically-deep circulation, and ultimately it
will win the battle against the more vertically shallow TUTT, which
is forecast to cut off and move away from the hurricane's expansive
upper-level outflow. By 60 hours, this change in the synoptic
pattern should once again reduce the vertical wind shear over Larry,
and it will have a chance to achieve a secondary peak between the
60-84 hour time-frame. However, eyewall replacement cycles could
also occur at any time over the next 2-5 days, providing additional
intensity fluctuations that make this a challenging intensity
forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the
previous one, but still remains higher than the latest HCCA
consensus aid. Regardless of the details, Larry is expected to
remain a large major hurricane over the next 3-4 days.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles on Sunday and will spread to portions of the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday and Tuesday. Significant
swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and
Atlantic Canada around midweek. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers
and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the
advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming week.

2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several
days, possibly as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong
winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the
middle of next week. While it is too soon to determine the
magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda,
interests there should monitor changes to the forecast during the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 17.4N 47.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 18.4N 48.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 19.8N 50.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 21.0N 52.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 22.2N 54.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.4N 55.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 28.3N 59.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 33.4N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 042048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

...LARRY IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 47.1W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1510 MI...2425 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 47.1 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A somewhat slower
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast
over the next day or so, followed by some intensity fluctuations.
However, Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength
through the early part of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday
and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern
United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 042046
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
2100 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 47.1W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 70SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 47.1W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 46.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.4N 48.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.8N 50.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 52.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 54.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 55.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.3N 59.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 33.4N 61.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 47.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 041459
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

Overnight and this morning, Larry appears to have gone through a
rather quick eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The most recent 1000
UTC GMI microwave pass suggests that Larry now has a much larger eye
and surrounding eyewall, with less evidence of concentric bands as
noted yesterday. On geostationary satellite the larger eye is also
becoming apparent on visible and infrared channels, though some left
over inner eyewall debris remains. Consistent with the larger eye,
an ASCAT-B pass received at 1226 UTC indicated that the 34-, 50-,
and 64-kt wind radii have expanded with Larry this morning. While
the most recent SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
have remain at 90 kt and 100 kt respectively, the
objective estimates are higher, with an earlier UW-CIMSS SATCON
estimate up to 112 kt, though it has recently been adjusted lower.
With the eye beginning to clear out on the most recent satellite
images, I am favoring the higher objective estimates, bringing Larry
up to 110 kt for this advisory.

Larry's track has remained fairly steady toward the west-northwest,
but just a touch slower and more poleward with the latest estimated
motion at 300/13 kt. This west-northwest motion is expected to
continue for the next several days with only a very gradual poleward
bend as Larry remains positioned to the south of an expansive
mid-level ridge extending westward ahead of Larry's expected path.
As has been the case the last several days, the track guidance is in
excellent agreement over the next 36-48 hours with more spread
becoming apparent thereafter. As discussed yesterday, the increase
in spread in the latter portion of the forecast appears to be
related to how much mid-level ridging stays north of Larry. The
ECMWF and its ensembles maintain more ridging that results in a
slower and more westward track, while the GFS and its ensembles
place more ridging east of Larry that results in a faster more
eastward track. The UKMET favors a solution closer to the ECMWF
while the Canadian favors a solution closer to the GFS. For now, the
latest NHC track has elected to remain close to the HFIP corrected
consensus approach (HCCA) which slightly favors the ECMWF solution
over the GFS. This latest track forecast is quite similar to the
previous one, but just a touch slower. Based on this forecast, Larry
will continue moving across the central Atlantic in the coming days,
and be approaching the latitude of Bermuda by the end of the
forecast period.

Conditions continue to remain favorable for additional
intensification over the next few days, with vertical wind shear
remaining under 10 kts, sea-surface temperatures gradually
increasing, and mid-level relatively humidity staying fairly moist.
However, by 48 hours, Larry will be impinging on the eastern edge of
a large upper-level mid-oceanic trough, which could result in an
increase in westerly vertical wind shear over the hurricane.
However, the models handle Larry's interaction with this synoptic
feature differently. The GFS suggests this upper-level trough will
fracture to the west fairly quickly, keeping a more favorable
upper-level pattern over Larry, while the ECMWF has a stronger
trough that takes longer to give way to Larry's upper-level outflow,
providing more westerly shear over the hurricane. Additional eyewall
replacement cycles are also possible in the coming days, which could
result in additional intensity fluctuations that are challenging to
predict ahead of time. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast
keeps Larry intensifying over the next 24-36 hours, with only a very
gradual decay thereafter due to the somewhat less favorable
dynamical environment. The latest intensity forecast remains on the
high end of the guidance, noting that there still remain higher
outliers making Larry stronger than the 125 kt peak intensity
(HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC). Regardless of the details, Larry is expected to
remain a large major hurricane through the forecast period.

Significant ocean swells generated by Larry's growing wind field are
expected to reach the Lesser Antilles tomorrow, and then spread
westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and
Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large
swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United
States by midweek.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 16.8N 45.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 47.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 19.1N 49.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 20.3N 51.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 21.5N 53.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 22.6N 54.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 23.8N 56.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 27.0N 59.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 31.6N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 041456
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

Overnight and this morning, Larry appears to have gone through a
rather quick eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The most recent 1000
UTC GMI microwave pass suggests that Larry now has a much larger eye
and surrounding eyewall, with less evidence of concentric bands as
noted yesterday. On geostationary satellite the larger eye is also
becoming apparent on visible and infrared channels, though some left
over inner eyewall debris remains. Consistent with the larger eye,
an ASCAT-B pass received at 1226 UTC indicated that the 34-, 50-,
and 64-kt wind radii have expanded with Larry this morning. While
the most recent SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
have remain at 90 kt and 100 kt respectively, the
objective estimates are higher, with an earlier UW-CIMSS SATCON
estimate up to 112 kt, though it has recently been adjusted lower.
With the eye beginning to clear out on the most recent satellite
images, I am favoring the higher objective estimates, bringing Larry
up to 110 kt for this advisory.

Larry's track has remained fairly steady toward the west-northwest,
but
just a touch slower and more poleward with the latest estimated
motion at 300/13 kt. This west-northwest motion is expected to
continue for the next several days with only a very gradual
poleward bend as Larry remains positioned to the south of an
expansive mid-level ridge extending westward ahead of Larry's
expected path. As has been the case the last several days, the
track guidance is in excellent agreement over the next 36-48 hours
with more spread becoming apparent thereafter. As discussed
yesterday, the increase in spread in the latter portion of the
forecast appears to be related to how much mid-level ridging stays
north of Larry. The ECMWF and its ensembles maintain more ridging
that results in a slower and more westward track, while the GFS and
its ensembles place more ridging east of Larry that results in a
faster more eastward track. The UKMET favors a solution closer to
the ECMWF while the Canadian favors a solution closer to the GFS.
For now, the latest NHC track has elected to remain close to the
HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) which slightly favors the
ECMWF solution over the GFS. This latest track forecast is quite
similar to the previous one, but just a touch slower. Based on this
forecast, Larry will continue moving across the central Atlantic in
the coming days, and be approaching the latitude of Bermuda by the
end of the forecast period.

Conditions continue to remain favorable for additional
intensification over the next few days, with vertical wind shear
remaining under 10 kts, sea-surface temperatures gradually
increasing, and mid-level relatively humidity staying fairly moist.
However, by 48 hours, Larry will be impinging on the eastern edge of
a large upper-level mid-oceanic trough, which could result in an
increase in westerly vertical wind shear over the hurricane.
However, the models handle Larry's interaction with this synoptic
feature differently. The GFS suggests this upper-level trough will
fracture to the west fairly quickly, keeping a more favorable
upper-level pattern over Larry, while the ECMWF has a stronger
trough that takes longer to give way to Larry's upper-level outflow,
providing more westerly shear over the hurricane. Additional eyewall
replacement cycles are also possible in the coming days, which could
result in additional intensity fluctuations that are challenging to
predict ahead of time. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast
keeps Larry intensifying over the next 24-36 hours, with only a very
gradual decay thereafter due to the somewhat less favorable
dynamical environment. The latest intensity forecast remains on the
high end of the guidance, noting that there still remain higher
outliers making Larry stronger than the 125 kt peak intensity
(HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC). Regardless of the details, Larry is expected to
remain a large major hurricane through the forecast period.

Significant ocean swells generated by Larry's growing wind field are
expected to reach the Lesser Antilles tomorrow, and then spread
westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and
Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large
swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United
States by midweek.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 16.8N 45.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 47.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 19.1N 49.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 20.3N 51.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 21.5N 53.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 22.6N 54.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 23.8N 56.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 27.0N 59.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 31.6N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 041447
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

...LARRY LARGER AND A LITTLE STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 45.8W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1600 MI...2570 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 45.8 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradually slower
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and additional strengthening is
forecast over the next day or two. Larry is expected to remain at
major hurricane strength through the early part of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday
and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern
United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 041446
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 45.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 70SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 45.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 45.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.7N 47.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 49.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 51.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 53.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 55NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.6N 54.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.8N 56.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.0N 59.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 31.6N 62.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 45.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040832
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

Larry's strengthening trend appears to have paused for the moment.
The hurricane has generally changed little during the past several
hours with the inner core still fairly symmetric, though cloud tops
are coldest to the south of the ragged eye. The outer bands are also
quite distinct, especially to the south of the center. The latest
Dvorak estimates still range from 90 to 110 kt, and based on that
data, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 14
kt. Larry is expected to continue moving west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next few days as it remains steered by a
subtropical ridge to its northeast. By the middle of next week, a
turn to the north-northwest is forecast when the hurricane reaches
the western periphery of the ridge. The models are in fairly good
agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies fairly close to the HCCA
and TVCA consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Larry is expected
to be moving across the central Atlantic during the next several
days and approach Bermuda by the end of the forecast period.

Larry is expected to remain in generally favorable conditions for
strengthening during the next couple of days, with SSTs increasing
along the storm's track and vertical wind shear remaining fairly
low. The models suggest that there could be an increase in shear
early next week, and that combined with slightly drier and more
stable air should end the strengthening trend and likely cause some
weakening. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles are a
possibility at some point during the forecast period, and these can
cause intensity fluctuations that are difficult to predict.
Regardless of the details, Larry is expected to remain a major
hurricane during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast
is just an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of
the model guidance.

Significant ocean swells generated by Larry's growing wind field
are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and then
spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large
swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United
States by midweek.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 16.3N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.2N 46.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 18.4N 48.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 19.7N 50.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 21.0N 52.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 22.0N 54.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 23.3N 56.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 26.1N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 30.6N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040831
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

...LARRY FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 44.6W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1830 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 44.6 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly slower
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast over the next day
or two, and Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength
through the early part of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday
and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern
United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040830
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0900 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 44.6W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 44.6W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 44.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.2N 46.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.4N 48.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 50.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 52.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 54.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 56.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.1N 59.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 30.6N 62.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 44.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 040237
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

Larry has had a distinct but slightly ragged 15 n mi wide eye
during the past few hours, while convective cloud tops within the
eyewall have been gradually cooling. Intensity estimates have
responded, somewhat significantly, to the improved structure, and
TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes at 0000 UTC were T5.5/102 kt and T5.0/90
kt, respectively. In addition, objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON
estimates are near 105 kt. Larry has become a major hurricane, the
third of the Atlantic season, with estimated 100-kt sustained winds.

The hurricane is located due south of a mid-tropospheric high
centered over the central Atlantic, and continues to move toward
the west-northwest (285/14 kt). Larry is generally expected to move
around the southwestern periphery of the high, turning northwestward
at a slower speed by Sunday and then north-northwestward by
Wednesday as a deep-layer trough moves eastward across the eastern
United States. There is fairly high confidence in the track
forecast, with model guidance showing a below- to near-normal amount
of spread through day 5. The new NHC track forecast is right along
the forecast from the previous advisory through day 3, and then
nudged slightly westward on days 4 and 5. It should be noted that a
few of the consensus aids, including HCCA, are still a little bit
west of the official forecast at day 5, which might portend
additional westward nudges in future advisories.

By strict definition, Larry hasn't quite rapidly intensified since
this time yesterday, but it has still strengthened quickly over
waters that are considered only marginally warm (26-27 degrees
Celsius). For the next couple of days, low shear, higher oceanic
heat content, and a more unstable environment should favor
additional intensification. However, there are still indications
that Larry could run into an environment of higher shear and less
upper-level divergence in 2-3 days as it approaches a
mid-/upper-level trough currently located north and northeast of
the Leeward Islands. In addition, internal processes within the
hurricane's core itself, such as eyewall replacement cycles, could
affect the intensity. In light of all these factors, the NHC
intensity forecast relies on persistence to show additional
strengthening during the next 36 hours, and then holds Larry steady
through 60 hours at an intensity that is near the upper end of the
guidance. Very gradual weakening is anticipated on days 3 through
5 while Larry heads in the direction of higher latitudes, yet the
hurricane is forecast to remain at major hurricane intensity for
the entire 5-day forecast period.

Significant ocean swells generated by Larry's growing wind field
are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and then
spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large
swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United
States by midweek.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 15.5N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 16.2N 45.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 18.7N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 20.0N 51.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 21.2N 53.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 22.4N 55.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 25.4N 58.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 29.5N 61.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 040236
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

...LARRY LUNGES TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 43.3W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 43.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through late Saturday. A motion toward the
northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast to begin Sunday
morning and continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast over the next day or two, and Larry is expected to remain
at major hurricane strength through the early part of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday
and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern
United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 040236
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 43.3W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 43.3W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 45.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 49.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 51.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.2N 53.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.4N 55.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 29.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 43.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 032054
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

Over the course of the day, Larry's appearance has become more
impressive. The eye has been gradually becoming better defined on
visible satellite imagery as the center cloud top temperature has
been warming on the infrared channel. Several microwave passes have
been received since the last advisory. The most recent pass at 1900
UTC suggested the eye and surrounding eyewall convection is becoming
better defined, though still weaker on the east side. 1800
UTC subjective Dvorak classifications were still both CI 4.5/77 kt
from TAFB and SAB. However, the objective satellite estimates have
been rising quickly, with the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate
up to 84 kt. Thus, the NHC advisory intensity has been raised to 85
kt for this advisory, making Larry a category 2 hurricane.

Larry's motion has remained fairly steady to the west-northwest
throughout the day, at 285/14 kt. The latest track reasoning remains
unchanged, with Larry being steered to the west-northwest around the
southern periphery of an expansive mid-level ridge centered north
of the hurricane. This ridge axis will gradually become oriented to
the northeast of Larry with time, allowing the tropical cyclone to
gradually gain more latitude. Because the ridge is quite large, even
as its axis shifts eastward, a portion of the ridge will still
remain to the north of the storm. The end result is that Larry
should only slowly gain a more poleward component of motion as the
system also gradually slows down. While the track guidance spread
remains small for the first 48-60 hours of the forecast, a bit more
longitudinal spread becomes apparent thereafter, which appears
related to how much mid-level ridging remains poleward of the
cyclone. The latest 12z ECMWF run has a distinctly stronger ridge,
oriented more poleward in comparison to the 12z GFS run. Thus, it is
not surprising to see that the ECMWF track is a bit further west and
slower than the GFS. The latest NHC track forecast this cycle was
also adjusted a bit slower, following the TVCN and HCCA consensus
aids. However, it is interesting to note the latest 12z ECMWF
ensembles are even slower than this track forecast, and future
slower adjustments may be needed if these track solutions verify. It
remains too soon to determine what impacts Larry may pose to the
Island of Bermuda, but interests there should monitor updates in the
forecast in the subsequent days.

With the recent improvement in Larry's structure on satellite
imagery, the hurricane may be starting another rapid intensification
(RI) cycle, as suggested by the high RI probabilities given in the
DTOPS guidance. However, the earlier microwave data also suggested
that there were a lot of concentric bands outside of the primary
eyewall, and it is not out of the question that another eyewall
replacement cycle could begin in the next 24-36 hours. Instead
of attempting to forecast these often stochastic processes, the
latest NHC intensity forecast will instead show a healthy rate of
deepening over the next several days, now taking Larry to 120 kt in
48 hours. Afterwards, there still remain questions as to how much
the vertical wind shear will increase over Larry, with the
ECMWF-SHIPS indicating higher shear that could affect Larry's
inner-core structure, while the GFS-SHIPS showing much lower shear.
Warmer sea-surface temperatures also await the hurricane in the
60-96 hour period. Due to these competing factors, the intensity
forecast during this period will only show very gradual weakening.
The latest NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the
guidance, but still remains lower than the higher HAFS-B and
COAMPS-TC models. It should be noted that the majority of the
guidance also shows Larry becoming a very large hurricane, with a
significant expansion of the 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii also
forecast.

Significant ocean swells generated by the increasingly large wind
field of Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday,
increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents and high surf
conditions on those islands early next week. Large swells are likely
to spread to areas surrounding the western Atlantic later in the
week as well.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 15.0N 42.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 15.8N 44.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 18.1N 48.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 19.4N 50.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 20.7N 52.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 54.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 28.7N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 032045
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

...LARRY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 42.0W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 42.0 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the weekend. A turn to the
northwest is forecast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Larry is forecast to become a major hurricane
this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday. Significant swells will likely reach Bermuda
and the eastern United States coastline after Labor Day. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 032041
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.8N 44.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.1N 48.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.4N 50.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 52.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.9N 54.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.7N 60.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 42.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 22.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2021 0 13.8N 22.4W 1014 17
0000UTC 04.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 94.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2021 0 14.5N 94.6W 1010 19
0000UTC 04.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 40.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2021 0 14.5N 40.1W 982 55
0000UTC 04.09.2021 12 15.5N 42.7W 981 58
1200UTC 04.09.2021 24 16.7N 45.4W 982 55
0000UTC 05.09.2021 36 17.8N 47.6W 980 59
1200UTC 05.09.2021 48 19.4N 49.7W 976 63
0000UTC 06.09.2021 60 21.1N 51.5W 970 67
1200UTC 06.09.2021 72 22.4N 53.5W 960 73
0000UTC 07.09.2021 84 23.6N 55.1W 949 88
1200UTC 07.09.2021 96 25.0N 56.9W 946 94
0000UTC 08.09.2021 108 26.6N 58.3W 928 105
1200UTC 08.09.2021 120 28.8N 59.7W 927 105
0000UTC 09.09.2021 132 31.4N 60.7W 920 110
1200UTC 09.09.2021 144 34.4N 61.1W 922 107

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 18.1N 107.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2021 120 18.1N 107.4W 1006 24
0000UTC 09.09.2021 132 18.8N 109.3W 1004 25
1200UTC 09.09.2021 144 19.2N 111.1W 1003 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.5N 150.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2021 144 14.5N 150.0W 1010 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031604

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 031604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 22.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2021 13.8N 22.4W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 94.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2021 14.5N 94.6W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 40.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2021 14.5N 40.1W MODERATE
00UTC 04.09.2021 15.5N 42.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2021 16.7N 45.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2021 17.8N 47.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2021 19.4N 49.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2021 21.1N 51.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2021 22.4N 53.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2021 23.6N 55.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2021 25.0N 56.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2021 26.6N 58.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.09.2021 28.8N 59.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2021 31.4N 60.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2021 34.4N 61.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 18.1N 107.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2021 18.1N 107.4W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2021 18.8N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2021 19.2N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.5N 150.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2021 14.5N 150.0W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031604

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 031456
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

Larry continues to have the presentation of a hurricane that is
gradually becoming better organized. Its structure this morning
consists of well defined spiral banding around a somewhat asymmetric
central dense overcast. More recently, a warm spot appears to be
forming on both infrared and visible satellite channels which could
foreshadow the development of a better-defined eye, as hinted at on
an earlier 0934 UTC SSMIS microwave pass. The most recent subjective
Dvorak classifications at 1200 UTC were still CI 4.5/77 kt from TAFB
and SAB. Interestingly, the objective satellite estimates from ADT
and SATCON remain on the lower side, though these seem conservative
given the structural improvements seen on recent satellite images.
Favoring the subjective estimates, the initial intensity is being
maintained at 80 kt for this advisory.

Larry continues to move to the west-northwest at 285/14 kt. A
prominent mid-level ridge located to the north of the hurricane is
expected to continue this heading over the next 24 to 36 hours,
though with a gradual decrease in forward speed. As Larry continues
to move west-northwest, the ridge axis will gradually re-position to
the northeast of the tropical cyclone, providing an avenue for the
hurricane to begin gaining more latitude. Starting around 72 hours,
a bit more cross-track spread begins to emerge in the track
guidance, related to both how much ridging remains directly poleward
of Larry, and also the outer-core size of the tropical cyclone
itself. For example, the most recent GFS run shifts most of the
ridging to the east of Larry and also expands the outer radius of
cyclone dramatically, helping to widen the poleward weakness
allowing a more northward track by 120 hours. By contrast, the ECMWF
maintains a more compact hurricane in the mid-levels, and maintains
more mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone. These
differences in the ECMWF allow a bit more of a westward track closer
to the Island of Bermuda. For now, the latest NHC track forecast is
in between these solutions, though with a slight preference towards
the ECMWF, which is also close to the latest HCCA consensus aid
forecast. This track forecast is quite similar to the previous
forecast. Given the track uncertainty by day 5, it is too soon to
determine what impacts Larry may pose to the Island of Bermuda, but
interests there should monitor updates in the forecast in the
subsequent days.

Larry remains embedded in a favorable environment for
intensification, with low vertical wind shear under 10 kt and a
sufficently moist mid-level environment. However, the hurricane has
had difficulty closing off its inner-core structure, which might be
preventing more rapid development from taking place. Assuming its
inner core becomes better established, Larry is expected to
intensity at a decent clip over the next 36-48 hours, and is
forecast to become a major hurricane this weekend with a peak
intensity of 120 kt by Monday. Afterwards, both the ECMWF-SHIPS
guidance and latest HWRF run suggest that westerly vertical wind
shear, from an upper-level mid-oceanic trough positioned northwest
of Larry, could begin to undercut the favorable upper-level
environment of the large tropical cyclone. Thus, some gradual
weakening is shown from days 3-5 in the NHC intensity forecast. This
latest forecast is quite similar to the previous one and is on the
upper-end of the guidance envelope, though still not as high as the
most recent COAMPS-TC and experimental HAFS-B runs. This intensity
forecast also does not account for possible eyewall replacement
cycles, which could cause additional intensity fluctuations that are
difficult to predict several days in advance.

Significant ocean swells generated by the large wind field of Larry
are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, increasing the
risk of life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions on
those islands early next week. Large swells are likely to spread to
areas surrounding the western Atlantic later in the week as well.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 14.8N 40.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.4N 42.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 17.6N 47.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 20.2N 51.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 21.4N 53.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 24.2N 56.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 27.8N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 031448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

...LARRY APPEARS POISED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER...
...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES
FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 40.7W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 40.7 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next few days. A turn to the
northwest is forecast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Larry is forecast to become a major hurricane
this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 031447
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 70SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 40.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.4N 42.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.6N 47.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.2N 51.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N 53.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.2N 56.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.8N 60.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 40.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030833
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

Larry continues to gradually become better organized. Satellite
images show a fairly compact central dense overcast feature with an
eye occasionally evident. Beyond the inner core, banding features
are gradually becoming more distinct, especially to the south of the
center. The latest Dvorak classifications at 0600 UTC was 4.5/77 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and based on those estimates and the improving
trend, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 80 kt.

Larry is moving west-northwestward at 17 kt. There has been no
change to the track forecast reasoning. A continued westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected on Friday and through the
weekend as the hurricane remains on the south side of a mid-level
ridge. By early next week, Larry is expected to slow down and turn
northwestward when it reaches the southwestern periphery of the
ridge. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This
forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

The environmental factors appear favorable for steady strengthening
during the next few days with wind shear remaining low and mid-level
moisture fairly high. The only slightly negative factor is
marginally warm 26-27 deg C waters that Larry will be moving over
during the next couple of days, which should prevent rapid
intensification. All of the models are in general agreement that
Larry will become a major hurricane in a day or so with continued
strengthening through day 3, and the NHC intensity forecast follows
suit. Some weakening is shown by the end of the forecast period
when the wind shear could increase a little. This forecast is very
similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the
guidance envelope. It should be noted that eyewall replacement
cycles are possible, which could cause intensity fluctuations that
are challenging to predict.

The leading swell front from Larry is expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip
currents and high surf conditions on those islands early next week.
Large swells are likely to spread to areas surrounding the western
Atlantic later in the week as well.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 14.6N 38.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 15.2N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 16.2N 43.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 17.3N 46.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 18.6N 48.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 19.8N 50.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 21.1N 52.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 27.1N 58.9W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030831
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

...LARRY SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...
...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES
FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 38.9W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1530 MI...2460 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 38.9 West. Larry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is
expected during the next few days. A turn to the northwest is
forecast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Larry could become a major hurricane by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030830
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 38.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 38.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 38.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 41.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.2N 43.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.3N 46.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.6N 48.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.8N 50.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.1N 52.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 27.1N 58.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 38.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 030233
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021

A series of SSMIS microwave passes earlier this afternoon indicated
that Larry may have been starting an eyewall replacement. However,
the last pass at 2058 UTC suggested that the eyewall replacement
failed, with the western part of the outer eyewall being eroded,
possibly by some modest mid-level shear and some dry air, and the
tighter inner eyewall trying to re-establish itself. As a result,
the convective pattern has reverted back to a small Central Dense
Overcast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are now T4.5/77 kt
from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB, and the latest objective
estimates range from 72 to 78 kt. Overall these numbers have risen
a bit, and Larry's maximum winds are now estimated to be 75 kt.

Larry continues moving toward the west but perhaps slightly faster
(280/17 kt). There is no change to the track forecast reasoning.
A fairly stagnant pattern consisting of a strong mid-level high
over the central Atlantic and broad-scale troughing over the
eastern United States and western Atlantic should persist through
the 5-day forecast period. Larry is therefore forecast to turn
toward the west-northwest on Friday and then take on a northwest
heading Sunday through Tuesday while it moves around the
southwestern periphery of the high. The updated NHC track forecast
lies right along the previous forecast and is very close to the
various consensus aids.

Low shear, gradually increasing sea surface temperatures, and the
potential for an upper-level outflow jet to form north of the
hurricane during the next 24-48 hours should support continued
strengthening. During the first 48 hours, the NHC forecast shows a
steady increase of 10 kt every 24 hours, close to the HCCA
consensus aids and near the top of the guidance envelope. By days
3 and 4, there continue to be indications that increasing westerly
or northwesterly shear could become a factor, and the NHC forecast
therefore shows a leveling off of the intensity, with some slight
weakening by the end of the forecast period. If Larry becomes a
strong hurricane, eyewall replacements would also be a possibility,
which would likely lead to difficult-to-forecast fluctuations in
intensity.

The leading swell front from Larry is expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip
currents and surf conditions on those islands early next week.
Large swells are likely to spread to areas surrounding the western
Atlantic later in the week as well.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.1N 37.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 14.5N 39.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 15.3N 42.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 16.4N 45.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 17.6N 47.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 20.4N 51.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 22.9N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 25.9N 58.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 030233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021

...LARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 37.5W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1630 MI...2620 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 37.5 West. Larry is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through Friday morning. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later on Friday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Larry could become a major hurricane by Friday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser
Antilles on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 030232
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0300 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 37.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 37.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 36.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 39.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.3N 42.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.4N 45.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.6N 47.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.4N 51.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 55.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.9N 58.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 37.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 022049
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021

This afternoon, Larry's appearance has evolved from a small central
dense overcast to a tightly coiled spiral banding pattern, with
these bands wrapping into the estimated center. I finally received a
useful SSMIS microwave overpass at 1857 UTC which provided evidence
that Larry could be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC).
The imagery suggests a large outer eyewall is taking shape on the
low-level 37-GHz channel, while an inner eyewall fragment is still
seen on the mid-level 91-GHz channel. Despite these structural
changes, the 1800 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB
were unchanged from this morning at CI 4.0/65 kt. In addition, the
latest objective intensity estimates from SATCON and ADT have only
varied slightly at 73 kt and 74 kt respectively. Taking a blend of
the subjective and objective estimates still yields 70 kt for this
advisory.

Larry continues to move just north of due west, with the latest
motion estimated at 280/16 kt. There is not much new to report with
the track reasoning, with a large mid-level ridge currently north of
Larry expected to steer the hurricane to the west or west-northwest
over the next 2-3 days. Over time, the ridge axis is forecast to
slowly shift further northeast of Larry's position, allowing the
hurricane to gradually gain a more rightward component of motion by
the end of the forecast period. In general, the track guidance
remains tightly clustered for the first 2-3 days. There was a
notable shift west in the latest 12z GFS deterministic track, while
the 12z ECMWF shifted ever so slightly right. A quick look at the
12z ECMWF ensemble guidance reveals that the deterministic run is a
bit to the northeast of the ensemble mean. The latest NHC track has
been shifted slightly to the south and west of the previous track,
following the reliable HFIP corrected consensus aid (HCCA) which
also shifted a bit south and west this cycle.

Once Larry completes the ongoing ERC, significant or even rapid
intensification is anticipated. The short-term intensity forecast
has been raised a bit more, since it appears more likely the present
ERC will finish in the next 6-12 h. The latest NHC intensity
forecast now makes Larry a major hurricane by tomorrow night, with
further intensification up to Category 4 intensity anticipated by
Sunday. Once again, there remains some discrepancy in the vertical
wind shear forecast between the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance,
with the ECMWF forecasting significantly more southwesterly shear
beyond 72 hours. Both guidance tools also indicate a decrease in
mid-level relative humidity which, if the shear materializes, could
disrupt Larry's inner core structure. Thus, the NHC intensity
forecast still shows gradual weakening from 72 to 120 hours. The
latest intensity forecast is just a hair above HCCA in the short
term, with the intensity forecast most closely following the latest
COAMPS-TC (CTCI) guidance in the first three days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 13.7N 35.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.0N 38.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.7N 41.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 15.7N 43.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 19.7N 50.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.2N 54.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 25.1N 57.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 022046
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021

...LARRY LIKELY TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 35.8W
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 35.8 West. Larry is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn towards the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the
next few days. A turn to the northwest is then expected by early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant to possibly rapid intensification is forecast
during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a
major hurricane tomorrow night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 022045
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
2100 UTC THU SEP 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 35.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 105SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 35.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 35.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 38.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.7N 41.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.7N 43.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.7N 50.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 54.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.1N 57.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 35.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.09.2021

TROPICAL STORM IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 42.2N 69.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2021 0 42.2N 69.2W 997 40
0000UTC 03.09.2021 12 46.1N 64.2W 993 44
1200UTC 03.09.2021 24 47.8N 62.9W 989 46
0000UTC 04.09.2021 36 49.0N 63.5W 991 41
1200UTC 04.09.2021 48 47.7N 64.1W 995 33
0000UTC 05.09.2021 60 46.2N 61.7W 999 33
1200UTC 05.09.2021 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 86.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2021 0 15.9N 86.8W 1010 21
0000UTC 03.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2021 0 13.3N 33.3W 993 48
0000UTC 03.09.2021 12 13.8N 37.2W 988 50
1200UTC 03.09.2021 24 14.4N 40.5W 983 52
0000UTC 04.09.2021 36 15.3N 43.6W 977 62
1200UTC 04.09.2021 48 16.3N 46.2W 975 65
0000UTC 05.09.2021 60 17.6N 48.3W 971 65
1200UTC 05.09.2021 72 19.2N 50.6W 969 68
0000UTC 06.09.2021 84 20.9N 52.5W 960 77
1200UTC 06.09.2021 96 22.2N 54.4W 949 81
0000UTC 07.09.2021 108 23.6N 56.1W 941 97
1200UTC 07.09.2021 120 25.0N 57.8W 930 106
0000UTC 08.09.2021 132 27.3N 59.1W 922 107
1200UTC 08.09.2021 144 29.9N 60.0W 922 111

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.6N 123.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2021 132 13.6N 123.6W 1007 32
1200UTC 08.09.2021 144 15.0N 121.9W 1008 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021600

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 021600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.09.2021

TROPICAL STORM IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 42.2N 69.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2021 42.2N 69.2W MODERATE
00UTC 03.09.2021 46.1N 64.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2021 47.8N 62.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2021 49.0N 63.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2021 47.7N 64.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2021 46.2N 61.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 86.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2021 15.9N 86.8W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2021 13.3N 33.3W MODERATE
00UTC 03.09.2021 13.8N 37.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2021 14.4N 40.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2021 15.3N 43.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2021 16.3N 46.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2021 17.6N 48.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2021 19.2N 50.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2021 20.9N 52.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2021 22.2N 54.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2021 23.6N 56.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2021 25.0N 57.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2021 27.3N 59.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2021 29.9N 60.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.6N 123.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2021 13.6N 123.6W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2021 15.0N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021600

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 021451
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021

Larry continues to gradually become better organized this morning,
with a small but cold CDO near the estimated center, and well
defined curved bands rotating completely around.
Unfortunately, there have not been any recent microwave
passes over the center in the last 6-9 hours. However, I
did receive a helpful ASCAT-B pass at 1128 UTC which indicated that
while the inner core remains quite small, the 34-kt wind radii have
expanded dramatically in all quadrants. The most recent Dvorak
subjective intensity estimates were both CI 4.0/65 kt from SAB and
TAFB. However, the objective intensity estimates from SATCON and
ADT are higher, at 70 kt and 77 kt respectively. Thus, the current
intensity of Larry was nudged upward to 70 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane's heading has changed little this morning, estimated
at 280/15 kt. There also remains little change to the forecast track
reasoning. A dominant mid-level ridge is located north of Larry
and should maintain the hurricane on a west to west-northwest
heading over the next 72 hours. The track guidance is in excellent
agreement over this time period. After 72 hours, a bit more track
guidance spread begins to take shape, which appears related to the
evolution of the the steering ridge orientation. For example, the
most recent GFS run begins a more pronounced rightward bend, as the
ridge becomes positioned northeast of the tropical cyclone. In
contrast, the ECMWF and a number of its left-leaning ensemble
members maintain more ridging directly north of Larry, keeping the
hurricane on a more leftward track with only a gradual bend to the
west-northwest and northwest. These differences notwithstanding, the
consensus aids has changed little from the previous forecast cycle,
and the NHC forecast track is nearly identical to the previous
track. This track lies very close to the HCCA consensus aid, which
favors a track solution a bit closer to the ECMWF versus the GFS.

Larry's environmental conditions appear very favorable for
additional intensification over the next 60-72 hours. In fact, the
primarily forecast challenge relates to how Larry's core structure
evolves over the next several days. Right now, the inner-core and
hurricane-force wind radii are very small relative to the expanding
tropical-storm-force wind field around the storm. Thus, it appears
likely that Larry will undergo some form of an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) in the next 12 to 24 hours, which may slow down the
short term intensification rate. However, once this cycle is
complete, very light easterly vertical wind shear between 2-8 kt,
abundant mid-level moisture, and sufficently warm sea-surface
temperatures between 27-28 C should favor steady to rapid
intensification. The latest NHC intensity forecast now calls for a
peak intensity of 120 kt in roughly 72 hours, which is a faster and
slightly higher peak than the prior forecast. Afterwards, the
guidance is a bit conflicted. The GFS-based SHIPS continues to
suggests low vertical wind shear through the end of the forecast
period. However, the ECMWF-based SHIPS shows much higher
southwesterly vertical wind shear beginning in 84 hours as Larry
also moves into a drier environment. It is also possible additional
ERCs may occur in the latter portion of this forecast, resulting in
additional intensity fluctuations. For these reasons, the intensity
forecast at the end of the period shows some modest weakening. This
intensity forecast is a bit higher than the HCCA corrected consensus
aid, but remains lower than some of the more aggressive guidance
(COAMPS-TC, the experimental HAFS-B).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 13.5N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 14.4N 39.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 15.3N 42.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 17.9N 47.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 19.2N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 21.8N 53.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 24.6N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 021441
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021

...LARRY IS LARGER AND A BIT STRONGER...
...STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 34.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 34.2 West. Larry is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A gradual turn towards the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed are expected over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a a major
hurricane by Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center. Recent satellite wind data indicates that the
tropical-storm-force wind radii are expanding and now extend outward
up to 160 miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 021439
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 135SE 90SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 34.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 33.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.4N 39.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.3N 42.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.9N 47.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.2N 49.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.8N 53.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 56.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 34.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020846
TCDAT2

Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021

Larry's cloud pattern has gradually become better organized, with
deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity near the
center and a banding-type eye trying to form. Upper-level outflow
is most prominent over the western and northern portions of the
circulation. A well-defined low-level eye was apparent on an
AMSR-2 image from a few hours ago. Dvorak final T- and Current
Intensity-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 4.0/4.0, corresponding
to an intensity of 65 kt. Based on these estimates, Larry is
upgraded to a hurricane, the fifth of the 2021 Atlantic season.

The hurricane is moving just slightly north of west, or 280/17 kt.
There are no important changes to the track forecast scenario from
the previous advisory. Larry is likely to move along the southern
and southwestern periphery of a strong deep-layer subtropical high
pressure area over the east-central Atlantic during the next few
days. This should result in a gradual turn toward the
west-northwest during the next 48-72 hours. A turn toward the
northwest is likely in 4-5 days as the system approaches a weakness
in the ridge. The track models are fairly well clustered on this
future direction of motion with some differences in forward speed.
The official track forecast is quite similar to the previous one
and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus,
TVCA.

Larry is expected to remain in an environment conducive for
strengthening over the next few days, with marginally warm
SSTs, low vertical shear, and surrounded by broad-scale anticyclonic
upper-level flow. Therefore, strengthening is likely, and the
official forecast calls for Larry to become a major hurricane in 48
hours or so. Some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall
replacements are possible around and after that time. Late in the
forecast period, slightly drier air in the environment could limit
further intensification. The official intensity forecast is close
to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 13.0N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.4N 34.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 14.8N 40.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 15.8N 43.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 20.9N 52.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.4W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020843
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021

...LARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 32.3W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located
near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 32.3 West. Larry is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion
should continue through tonight. A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected Friday
and Friday night. A slightly slower west-northwestward motion is
expected on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a
a major hurricane by Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 020842
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0900 UTC THU SEP 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 32.3W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 32.3W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 31.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.4N 34.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.8N 40.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.8N 43.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.9N 52.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 32.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 020240
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021

Larry's strengthening phase appears to have taken a pause this
evening. While an earlier 2055 UTC GMI microwave overpass indicated
that the low-level structure was fairly impressive with a tight
low-level eye-like feature, the deep convection waned briefly, but
has since returned in a band around the eastern portion of the
circulation. The various satellite-based intensity estimates
have an unusually large spread from about 45 to 75 kt this evening.
At the higher end of the estimates are UW/CIMSS ADT T-numbers of
T4.5 and at the lower end were scatterometer wind data showing peak
wind retrievals of about 45 kt. But given the small-inner core
seen in the microwave data, there is likely some undersampling
occuring with the ASCAT instrument. Subjective Dvorak data
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB were T3.5 (55 kt), and the latest
SATCON estimate is 57 kt. The NHC initial intensity estimate leans
toward the subjective Dvorak numbers and SATCON, and therefore
remains at 60 kt, but there is larger-than-normal uncertainty
regarding the initial intensity at this time.

Larry is moving westward or 275/18 kt. The track forecast
philosophy has not changed this evening. Larry is expected to move
around the south and southwestern portion of a strong mid-level
ridge that is anchored over the east-central Atlantic. This should
steer the tropical cyclone steadily westward to west-northwestward
during the next few days, with a turn toward the northwest by days
4 and 5 as Larry nears the southwestern portion of the ridge. The
latest model envelope is largely unchanged through 120 hours, and
the updated official forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory. Although the track guidance is fairly tightly clustered
there are some differences in how fast Larry will move across the
tropical Atlantic, with the UKMET depicting the fastest forward
speed. The NHC track forecast is slightly slower than the consensus
aids to be in better agreement with the bulk of the guidance and
the GFS ensemble mean.

Conditions are expected to remain favorable for steady to rapid
strengthening. Despite the recent pause in intensification,
Larry is likely to resume strengthening later tonight, and the
short-term portion of the intensity forecast is unchanged from
before. Larry is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday
morning, and a major hurricane in 36-48 hours. That portion of
the intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS guidance
and is supported by the global model guidance which significantly
deepen Larry over the next couple of days. After that time, there
are some mixed signals on the amount of shear over the system
with the GFS-based SHIPS guidance predicting moderate shear and some
dry air, while the ECMWF-based SHIPS model diagnoses more favorable
conditions. For now, the NHC intensity forecast shows a peak
slightly higher than before by 72 hours, and then indicates little
overall change in strength thereafter as some fluctuations in
intensity could occur due to eyewall replacement cycles. The latter
portion of the forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected
consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 12.8N 30.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.0N 33.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 13.6N 36.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 14.2N 39.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 15.1N 42.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 20.1N 51.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 22.9N 55.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 020238
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0300 UTC THU SEP 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 30.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 33.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.6N 36.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.2N 39.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.1N 42.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.1N 51.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 55.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 30.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 020238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021

...LARRY'S STRENGTHENING PAUSES, BUT INTENSIFICATION LIKELY TO
RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 30.9W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 30.9 West. Larry is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Thursday night. A gradual turn
toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are
expected Friday and Friday night. A slightly slower west-
northwestward motion is expected on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a hurricane later
tonight or early Thursday, and a major hurricane Friday or Friday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 012035
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

Afternoon satellite imagery indicates that Larry continues to
become better organized, with visible imagery hinting at eye
formation and a partial SSM/IS overpass suggesting that a 37 GHz
convective ring is present around the center. Satellite intensity
estimates are now 65 kt from SAB and 55 kt from TAFB, and the
initial intensity is increased to 60 kt, which is a 30 kt increase
since this time yesterday satisfying the 24-h definition of rapid
intensification.

The initial motion is now 275/19 kt. Larry is expected to move
around the south and southwest sides of a subtropical ridge during
the next five days, with a general westward motion for 24-36 h,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and, by 96-120 h, a
turn toward the northwest. The spread in the track guidance after
36 h has decreased a little in the latest model runs. However, the
guidance envelope has again shifted a little to the west. The new
forecast track will also be shifted a little westward, and it lies
on the southern edge of the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for additional rapid intensification
during at the next 36-48 h, and the intensity forecast now calls for
Larry to become a hurricane in less than 12 h and become a major
hurricane in about 48 h. Given current trends, this part of the
intensity forecast could be conservative. There is lower confidence
in the intensity forecast after 48 h. Larry is expected to
encounter somewhat increased shear, and around the 72 h point it is
expected to encounter some dry air. After 96 h, moderate shear is
forecast to continue, but the cyclone is expected to move into a
more moist air mass and over increasing sea surface temperatures.
On top of these factors, there is the good chance that Larry will
have fluctuations in intensity after it becomes a major hurricane
due to eyewall replacement cycles. The intensity guidance basically
keeps a steady intensity from 60-120 h, and the official forecast
follows that trend. However, this part of the intensity forecast is
in the middle of the guidance, and it is possible Larry could be
stronger than forecast during this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.5N 29.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.6N 31.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.0N 34.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.7N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.6N 40.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 15.6N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 19.5N 50.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 012035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

...LARRY STRENGTHENING QUICKLY AND NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 29.4W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 29.4 West. Larry is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Thursday. A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected Thursday
night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a
hurricane tonight and a major hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 012035
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 29.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 29.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 28.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.6N 31.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.0N 34.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.7N 38.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.6N 40.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.6N 43.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 29.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 011829
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Larry Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
530 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

...LARRY GETTING STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that Larry's maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h), with
higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 530 PM CVT...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 28.5W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 011450
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

Satellite imagery this morning shows that Larry is becoming better
organized, with curved convective bands increasing around the
center. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates were in the 35-55 kt range around 12Z, and ASCAT data
near the time showed 40 kt winds. Based on increasing organization
since that time, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt.

Larry is moving quickly westward, although there is some uncertainty
in the forward speed due to the possibility the center re-formed
during the night. The best estimate of the motion is 270/19 kt. As
noted in the previous advisory, the cyclone is expected to move
around the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling
Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general
west motion for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest and, by 96-120 h, a turn toward the northwest. After
36 h, there is some spread in the track guidance, with the GFS
generally on the right side of the guidance envelope and the UKMET
on the left side, a spread often seen for westward-moving cyclones
south of the Bermuda-Azores high. Due to a more westerly initial
position, the guidance has shifted a little more to the west, and
the new forecast track is again shifted to the west of the previous
track. The new forecast lies a little to the south of the various
consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during
the next 48-60 h due to light shear, a moist environment, and sea
surface temperatures of 27-28C along the forecast track. The new
intensity forecast calls for Larry to become a hurricane in about 24
h and a major hurricane near 60 h. After that time, the global
models suggest the possibility of dry air entrainment, and by 120 h
there is likely to be moderate westerly shear over the cyclone.
Based on this forecast environment and the guidance trends, the
intensity forecast calls for little change in strength from 72-120
h. The new intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 12.3N 27.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 12.4N 30.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 12.7N 33.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 13.2N 36.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 13.9N 39.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 15.0N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 011449
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

...LARRY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 27.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 27.6 West. Larry is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Thursday. A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected Thursday
night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Larry is expected
to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 011448
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 27.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 27.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 26.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.4N 30.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.7N 33.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.2N 36.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.9N 39.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 41.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 27.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010858
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

Deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C have increased over
and to the west of the low-level center since the previous advisory.
Subjective satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC from TAFB and
SAB were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, while the most recent objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are T2.8/41 kt from ADT and 37 kt
from SATCON. An average of these intensity estimates support
increasing the advisory intensity to 40 kt, making the cyclone
Tropical Storm Larry. In addition, 0300 UTC and 0700 UTC
observations from ship VRNF3, which recently passed through the
center of Larry, reported a pressure of 1006.8 mb and winds near 25
kt. These data were the basis for the estimated central pressure of
1003 mb, a pressure value that also supports an intensity of 40 kt.

Larry has turned more westward over the past several hours, and the
new motion estimate is 280/17 kt. Larry is expected to move around
the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling
Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general
west motion for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward
the west-northwest on Friday, and a northwestward motion over the
weekend and continuing into early next week. There has been a
pronounced westward shift in the track guidance for this cycle, with
the greatest shift coming from the GFS model. Over the past 36
hours, the GFS has shifted its track westward by more than 500 nmi,
and even the latest shift still keeps the GFS model the easternmost
track forecast in the guidance suite. In contrast, the ECMWF and
UKMET models, which lie along the westernmost portion of the
guidance envelope, have been fairly stable. Owing to the westward
shift in the overall guidance envelope, and considering the GFS
solution as an outlier model, the new NHC forecast track has also
been shifted westward, and lies between the NOAA-HCCA
corrected-consensus model to the south, and the tightly packed TVCA
simple-consensus model and FSSE corrected-consensus model to the
north. Given the poor handling of the ridge to the north of Larry by
the GFS, subsequent NHC forecast tracks may have to be shifted
farther west.

Given the improved inner-core wind field based on earlier ASCAT wind
data and reports from ship VRNF3, along with warm sea-surface
temperatures of 28 deg C and light easterly to southeasterly
vertical shear of around 5 kt, steady strengthening is expected for
the next 24 hours or so. By 36 hours when Larry is expected to be a
hurricane and have a well-established and tighter inner-core wind
field and possibly an eye, rapid intensification is forecast, with
Larry becoming a major hurricane by 72 hour. This in large part due
to the massive equatorward upper-level outflow pattern that all
of the global and regional models are forecasting, which is the
same type of outflow pattern that recently occurred with Hurricane
Ida. The new official intensity forecast is above the previous
advisory forecast by about 10 kt at all forecast times, and
conservatively follows an average of the Decay-SHIPS, COAMPS-TC,
FSSE, and ECMWF models. This intensity forecast is near the upper
end of the guidance envelope and is above the other consensus
intensity models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 12.3N 24.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 12.5N 27.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 12.6N 30.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 13.1N 33.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 13.6N 36.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 14.4N 39.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 15.5N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 18.2N 46.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 21.3N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010842
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LARRY OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 24.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 24.8 West. Larry is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of
days, followed by a turn to the northwest over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days and Larry is forecast to become a hurricane by late
Thursday or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 010842
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 24.8W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 24.8W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 23.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.5N 27.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.6N 30.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.1N 33.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.6N 36.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.4N 39.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.2N 46.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.3N 50.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 24.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 010232
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually becoming
better organized. An area of deep convection has been persisting
near the center, and banding features are beginning to take shape.
The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to
2.5/35 kt, which would support upgrading the system to a tropical
storm. However, a recent ASCAT-B overpass around 2300 UTC showed
maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range in the northeastern quadrant,
and based on that data the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The tropical depression is moving fairly quickly to the
west-northwest at 17 kt. The track forecast reasoning appears
fairly straightforward. The cyclone is expected to move at a
relatively fast pace to the west or west-northwest during the next
couple of days as it remains on the south side of a strong mid-level
ridge. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and a gradual
turn to the northwest are expected as the system nears the
southwestern side of the ridge. Although most of the models agree
on the synoptic steering pattern, there is a fair amount of spread
from days 3 to 5 in how soon the northwestward turn will occur. The
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and
is a little to the north of the previous one based on the more
poleward initial position.

Since the system is expected to be over relatively warm water and in
an air mass of low wind shear and abundant moisture, steady
strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The
depression is likely to become a tropical storm within the next 12
hours and a hurricane in 36 to 48 hours. Beyond a few days, an
increase in shear and drier air should slow the rate of
intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of
the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR models. In addition, the global models all
show the cyclone becoming fairly large toward the end of the
forecast period. The NHC forecast wind radii is larger than the
previous one, trending toward the radii consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 12.1N 23.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 12.6N 25.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 12.8N 29.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 13.2N 32.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 13.8N 35.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 14.5N 37.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 15.4N 40.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 18.0N 44.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 47.9W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 010231
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
200 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 23.2W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 23.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31
km/h). A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane in a couple of
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 010231
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 23.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 23.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 22.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.6N 25.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.8N 29.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.2N 32.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.8N 35.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 37.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.4N 40.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.7N 47.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 23.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 312035
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021

Satellite imagery, along with earlier scatterometer data, indicates
that the low pressure area over the eastern tropical Atlantic has
a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to
be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB as well as the scatterometer data.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/14. A strong low-
to mid-level ridge to the north should cause the cyclone to move
westward at a faster forward speed for the next 36 h or so,
followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest
by the end of the period as the depression moves along the
southwest side of the ridge. There is some spread in the guidance
after 36-48 h, with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean showing a more
northward motion while the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean show a
more westward motion. The official forecast is near the middle of
the guidance envelope and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus
model, which is a little to the south of the other consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for intensification during the next 72
h or so as the cyclone is in a moist environment with light shear
and warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast thus
calls for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 h or so and
reach hurricane strength in 48-60 h. By the end of the forecast
period, the forecast track takes the cyclone over slightly cooler
water and into a drier air mass. Based on this, the intensity
forecast calls for a slower development rate. The official
intensity forecast is in the middle of the intensity guidance, and
it is possibly conservative given that many of the global models
are showing the development of a large and powerful tropical
cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 11.2N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.6N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 12.0N 27.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 12.1N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 13.3N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 14.3N 39.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.5N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 47.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 312034
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
800 PM CVT Tue Aug 31 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 21.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve
was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 21.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph
(26 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, and a
westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 312034
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 21.1W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 21.1W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 20.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.6N 23.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.0N 27.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.1N 30.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.5N 33.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.3N 36.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.3N 39.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 21.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>