Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21
in China, Philippines

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 34N 138E
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 200NM =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 34N 138E
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 200NM =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 34.3N 137.1E FAIR
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 181500UTC 34.4N 139.7E 30NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 190300UTC 34.3N 141.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 34.3N 137.1E FAIR
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 34.3N 141.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210918004449
2021091800 19W CHANTHU 048 01 085 19 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 341N 1366E 025
T012 343N 1399E 025
T024 344N 1424E 020
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 048
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 34.1N 136.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 136.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 34.3N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 34.4N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 34.2N 137.4E.
18SEP21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
169 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z
IS 10 FEET.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 301N1257E 45
1921091512 301N1255E 45
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091618 322N1265E 45
1921091700 329N1275E 45
1921091706 334N1292E 40
1921091712 338N1315E 40
1921091718 339N1343E 30
1921091800 341N1366E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 34.1N 136.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 136.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 34.3N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 34.4N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 34.2N 137.4E.
18SEP21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
169
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAVE BEECOME SHEARED AND FRAGMENTED. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE USING SATELLITE AND
COMPOSITE
RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION, JUST OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN
HONSHU, IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATION FROM
NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING OWASE AND SHIONOMISAKI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS ALSO EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY WIND AND SEA
LEVEL
PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS AND SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T1.5/25KTS FROM RJTD. TD 19W IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180000Z
IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.47 FOR TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 34.5N, 136.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT06. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT06 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT06. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 34.5N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 181200UTC 34.3N 139.1E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 190000UTC 34.5N 141.5E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 34.5N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 34.5N 141.5E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 180000
WARNING 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 1000 HPA
AT 34.5N 136.5E HONSHU MOVING EAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 34.3N 139.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 34.5N 141.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 34.0N 135.1E FAIR
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 180900UTC 34.2N 138.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 182100UTC 34.6N 140.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 34.0N 135.1E FAIR
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 34.6N 140.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210917192740
2021091718 19W CHANTHU 047 01 085 23 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 339N 1343E 030
T012 342N 1379E 025
T024 343N 1408E 025
T036 342N 1427E 020
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 047
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 047
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 33.9N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 33.9N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.2N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 34.3N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 34.2N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 135.2E.
17SEP21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 301N1257E 45
1921091512 301N1255E 45
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091618 322N1265E 45
1921091700 329N1275E 45
1921091706 334N1292E 40
1921091712 338N1315E 40
1921091718 339N1343E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 047
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 33.9N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 33.9N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.2N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 34.3N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 34.2N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 34.0N 135.2E.
17SEP21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.46 FOR TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHANTHU IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 33.8N, 134.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT18. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT06. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT18 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT18. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 33.8N 134.1E FAIR
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 180600UTC 34.1N 137.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 181800UTC 34.7N 139.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 33.8N 134.1E FAIR
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 34.7N 139.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 171800
WARNING 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 994 HPA
AT 33.8N 134.1E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 34.1N 137.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 34.7N 139.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 33.8N 132.5E FAIR
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 180300UTC 34.0N 136.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 181500UTC 34.2N 138.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 33.8N 132.5E FAIR
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 34.2N 138.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210917132150
2021091712 19W CHANTHU 046 01 080 20 SATL RADR SYNP 040
T000 338N 1315E 040 R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 343N 1357E 035 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 346N 1383E 030
T036 346N 1402E 030
T048 341N 1417E 025
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 046
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 33.8N 131.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.8N 131.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 34.3N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 34.6N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 34.6N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 34.1N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 33.9N 132.5E.
17SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42
NM SOUTHWEST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 301N1257E 45
1921091512 301N1255E 45
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091618 322N1265E 45
1921091700 329N1275E 45
1921091706 334N1292E 40
1921091712 338N1315E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 046//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 33.8N 131.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.8N 131.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 34.3N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 34.6N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 34.6N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 34.1N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 33.9N 132.5E.
17SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42
NM SOUTHWEST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.45 FOR TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 33.8N, 131.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 33.8N 131.6E FAIR
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 180000UTC 33.9N 135.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 181200UTC 34.0N 138.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 33.8N 131.6E FAIR
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 34.0N 138.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 992 HPA
AT 33.8N 131.6E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING EAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 33.9N 135.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 34.0N 138.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 48
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170900UTC 33.8N 130.3E
MOVEMENT ENE 19KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 171500UTC 34.0N 132.6E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
12HR
POSITION 172100UTC 34.2N 135.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 33.8N 130.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 172100UTC 34.0N 134.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 180900UTC 34.1N 137.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190600UTC 34.2N 141.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 170900
WARNING 170900.
WARNING VALID 180900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 33.8N 130.3E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 34.0N 134.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 34.1N 137.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 33.8N 130.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 34.1N 137.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190600UTC 34.2N 141.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210917072842
2021091706 19W CHANTHU 045 01 070 15 SATL RADR SYNP 040
T000 334N 1292E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 341N 1329E 040 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 345N 1362E 035 R034 020 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 347N 1388E 030
T048 345N 1402E 030
T072 337N 1418E 025
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 045
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 33.4N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.1N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.5N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 34.7N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 34.5N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 33.7N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 130.1E.
17SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 31
NM NORTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 301N1257E 45
1921091512 301N1255E 45
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091618 322N1265E 45
1921091700 329N1275E 45
1921091706 334N1292E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 33.4N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.1N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.5N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 34.7N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 34.5N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 33.7N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 130.1E.
17SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 31
NM NORTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.44 FOR STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 33.5N, 129.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 33.5N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 171800UTC 33.9N 133.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 180600UTC 34.1N 136.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190600UTC 34.2N 141.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 33.5N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 34.1N 136.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190600UTC 34.2N 141.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 33.5N 129.2E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 33.9N 133.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 34.1N 136.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 34.2N 141.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 46
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170300UTC 33.3N 128.2E
MOVEMENT NE 15KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 170900UTC 33.8N 130.4E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
12HR
POSITION 171500UTC 34.1N 133.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 172100UTC 34.2N 135.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 170300
WARNING 170300.
WARNING VALID 180300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 33.3N 128.2E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 33.7N 132.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 34.0N 135.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 33.3N 128.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 171500UTC 33.7N 132.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 180300UTC 34.0N 135.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190000UTC 34.2N 140.2E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 33.3N 128.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 34.0N 135.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190000UTC 34.2N 140.2E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210917013835
2021091700 19W CHANTHU 044 01 050 09 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 329N 1275E 045 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 337N 1308E 045 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 343N 1343E 040 R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 347N 1374E 035 R034 020 NE QD 130 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 347N 1396E 035 R034 010 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 340N 1416E 030
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 044
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 32.9N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.9N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 33.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 34.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 34.7N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 34.7N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 34.0N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 128.3E.
17SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111
NM WEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z
AND 180300Z.//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 302N1262E 45
1921091512 301N1255E 45
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091618 323N1267E 50
1921091618 323N1267E 50
1921091700 329N1275E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 32.9N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.9N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 33.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 34.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 34.7N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 34.7N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 34.0N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 128.3E.
17SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111
NM WEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z
AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.43 FOR STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 32.9N, 127.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 32.9N 127.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 171200UTC 33.6N 131.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 180000UTC 34.0N 135.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190000UTC 34.2N 140.2E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 32.9N 127.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 34.0N 135.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190000UTC 34.2N 140.2E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 32.9N 127.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 33.6N 131.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 34.0N 135.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 34.2N 140.2E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 162100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 44
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 162100UTC 32.7N 126.8E
MOVEMENT NE 11KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 170300UTC 33.5N 128.2E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
12HR
POSITION 170900UTC 34.1N 130.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
18HR
POSITION 171500UTC 34.3N 133.0E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 172100UTC 34.4N 135.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 32.6N 126.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170900UTC 33.5N 130.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 172100UTC 33.9N 134.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 181800UTC 34.2N 139.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 191800UTC 33.1N 141.4E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 32.6N 126.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 33.9N 134.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 181800UTC 34.2N 139.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 191800UTC 33.1N 141.4E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 162100
WARNING 162100.
WARNING VALID 172100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 32.6N 126.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 33.5N 130.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 33.9N 134.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210916201403
2021091618 19W CHANTHU 043 01 040 10 SATL RADR 040
T000 323N 1267E 050 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 333N 1295E 045 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 340N 1331E 040 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 347N 1369E 035 R034 060 NE QD 150 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 350N 1398E 035 R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 344N 1434E 035 R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 043
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 32.3N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.3N 126.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.0N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.7N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 35.0N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 34.4N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 32.6N 127.4E.
16SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z
AND 172100Z.//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 302N1262E 45
1921091512 301N1255E 45
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091606 308N1254E 55
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091612 315N1259E 50
1921091618 323N1267E 50
1921091618 323N1267E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 32.3N 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.3N 126.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.3N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.0N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.7N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 35.0N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 34.4N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 32.6N 127.4E.
16SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z
AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.42 FOR STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 32.3N, 126.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 32.3N 126.4E GOOD
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170600UTC 33.4N 129.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 171800UTC 33.9N 133.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181800UTC 34.2N 139.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 191800UTC 33.1N 141.4E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 32.3N 126.4E GOOD
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 33.9N 133.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181800UTC 34.2N 139.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 191800UTC 33.1N 141.4E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 32.3N 126.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 33.4N 129.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 33.9N 133.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 34.2N 139.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 33.1N 141.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 161500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 42
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161500UTC 32.1N 126.0E
MOVEMENT NNE 9KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 162100UTC 32.9N 126.8E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
12HR
POSITION 170300UTC 33.6N 128.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
18HR
POSITION 170900UTC 34.1N 130.3E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 171500UTC 34.4N 132.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
30HR
POSITION 172100UTC 34.7N 135.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 31.9N 126.0E GOOD
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170300UTC 33.3N 128.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 171500UTC 33.9N 132.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 181200UTC 34.9N 139.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 191200UTC 36.0N 145.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 31.9N 126.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 33.3N 128.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 33.9N 132.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 31.9N 126.0E GOOD
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 33.9N 132.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 181200UTC 34.9N 139.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 191200UTC 36.0N 145.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210916131425
2021091612 19W CHANTHU 042 01 030 09 SATL RADR 040
T000 317N 1259E 050 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 330N 1278E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 337N 1314E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 344N 1353E 040 R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 350N 1392E 040 R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 359N 1443E 035 R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 042
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 31.7N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.0N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 33.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 34.4N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 35.0N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 35.9N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 126.4E.
16SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
210 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 302N1262E 45
1921091512 301N1255E 45
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091606 309N1254E 55
1921091606 309N1254E 55
1921091612 317N1259E 50
1921091612 317N1259E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 31.7N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.0N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 33.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 34.4N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 35.0N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 35.9N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 126.4E.
16SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
210 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.41 FOR STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 31.7N, 125.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 31.7N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170000UTC 33.1N 127.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 171200UTC 33.7N 131.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 181200UTC 34.9N 139.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 191200UTC 36.0N 145.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 31.7N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 33.7N 131.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 181200UTC 34.9N 139.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 191200UTC 36.0N 145.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 31.7N 125.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 33.1N 127.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 33.7N 131.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 34.9N 139.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 36.0N 145.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 160900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 40
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 160900UTC 31.4N 125.6E
MOVEMENT NNE 10KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 161500UTC 32.2N 126.1E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
12HR
POSITION 162100UTC 32.9N 126.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
18HR
POSITION 170300UTC 33.7N 128.3E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 170900UTC 34.0N 130.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
30HR
POSITION 171500UTC 34.4N 133.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 172100UTC 34.6N 136.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 160900
WARNING 160900.
WARNING VALID 170900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 31.4N 125.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 32.7N 127.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 33.5N 130.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 31.4N 125.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 162100UTC 32.7N 127.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 170900UTC 33.5N 130.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 180600UTC 34.2N 137.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 190600UTC 35.4N 143.8E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 31.4N 125.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 33.5N 130.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 180600UTC 34.2N 137.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 190600UTC 35.4N 143.8E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210916073755
2021091606 19W CHANTHU 041 01 020 07 SATL 060
T000 311N 1254E 055 R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 324N 1267E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 335N 1294E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 342N 1335E 045 R034 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 348N 1375E 040 R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 358N 1439E 035 R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 041
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 31.1N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.4N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.5N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.2N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.8N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 35.8N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 31.4N 125.7E.
16SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 302N1262E 45
1921091512 301N1255E 45
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091606 311N1254E 55
1921091606 311N1254E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 31.1N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.4N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.5N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.2N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 34.8N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 35.8N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 31.4N 125.7E.
16SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.40 FOR STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 31.1N, 125.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 31.1N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 161800UTC 32.3N 126.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 170600UTC 33.6N 129.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 180600UTC 34.2N 137.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 190600UTC 35.4N 143.8E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 31.1N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 33.6N 129.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 180600UTC 34.2N 137.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 190600UTC 35.4N 143.8E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 31.1N 125.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 32.3N 126.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 33.6N 129.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 34.2N 137.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 35.4N 143.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 160300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 38
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 160300UTC 30.6N 125.1E
MOVEMENT NNE 5KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 160900UTC 31.3N 125.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
12HR
POSITION 161500UTC 32.0N 125.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
18HR
POSITION 162100UTC 32.8N 126.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 170300UTC 33.5N 127.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
30HR
POSITION 170900UTC 34.1N 130.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 171500UTC 34.8N 132.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
42HR
POSITION 172100UTC 35.2N 134.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 30.6N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 161500UTC 32.0N 126.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 170300UTC 33.3N 128.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 180000UTC 34.4N 135.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 190000UTC 36.0N 143.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 160300
WARNING 160300.
WARNING VALID 170300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 30.6N 125.1E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 32.0N 126.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 33.3N 128.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 30.6N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 33.3N 128.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 180000UTC 34.4N 135.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 190000UTC 36.0N 143.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210916021142
2021091600 19W CHANTHU 040 01 335 02 SATL 030
T000 304N 1251E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 315N 1256E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 329N 1278E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 337N 1313E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 347N 1356E 045 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 371N 1448E 045 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 040
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 30.4N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 31.5N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 32.9N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 33.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 34.7N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 37.1N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 30.7N 125.2E.
16SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 302N1262E 45
1921091512 301N1255E 45
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091518 302N1252E 50
1921091600 304N1251E 55
1921091600 304N1251E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 30.4N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 31.5N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 32.9N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 33.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 34.7N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 37.1N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 30.7N 125.2E.
16SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.39 FOR STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 30.4N, 125.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A
CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LAND AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 30.4N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 161200UTC 31.6N 125.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 170000UTC 33.1N 127.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 180000UTC 34.4N 135.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 190000UTC 36.0N 143.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 30.4N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 33.1N 127.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 180000UTC 34.4N 135.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 190000UTC 36.0N 143.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 990 HPA
AT 30.4N 125.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 31.6N 125.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 33.1N 127.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 34.4N 135.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 36.0N 143.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210915195812
2021091518 19W CHANTHU 039 01 310 03 SATL 030
T000 303N 1252E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 310N 1253E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 323N 1265E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 335N 1293E 045 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 344N 1335E 040 R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 368N 1427E 040 R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 039
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.0N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.5N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.4N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 36.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 125.2E.
15SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285
NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z,
161500Z AND 162100Z.//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 302N1262E 45
1921091512 301N1255E 45
1921091518 303N1252E 50
1921091518 303N1252E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.0N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.5N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 34.4N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 36.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 125.2E.
15SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285
NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z,
161500Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 30.5N 125.2E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 160900UTC 31.3N 125.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 162100UTC 32.8N 127.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 171800UTC 34.4N 134.1E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 30.5N 125.2E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 32.8N 127.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 171800UTC 34.4N 134.1E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.38 FOR TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 30.2N, 125.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT36.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 30.2N 125.4E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 160600UTC 30.9N 125.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 161800UTC 32.4N 126.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171800UTC 34.4N 134.1E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 30.2N 125.4E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 32.4N 126.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171800UTC 34.4N 134.1E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 992 HPA
AT 30.2N 125.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 30.9N 125.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 32.4N 126.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 34.4N 134.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 30.2N 125.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 160300UTC 30.7N 125.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 161500UTC 32.1N 125.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 171200UTC 34.1N 131.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 30.2N 125.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 32.1N 125.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 171200UTC 34.1N 131.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210915141129
2021091512 19W CHANTHU 038 01 260 06 SATL 020
T000 301N 1255E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 306N 1253E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 317N 1259E 050 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 330N 1279E 045 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 341N 1317E 040 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 372N 1413E 035 R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 038
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 30.1N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 30.6N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 31.7N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 34.1N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 37.2N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 125.5E.
15SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280
NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 302N1262E 45
1921091512 301N1255E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 30.1N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 30.6N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 31.7N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 34.1N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 37.2N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 125.5E.
15SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280
NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 30.2N, 125.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT36.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 30.2N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 160000UTC 30.4N 125.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 161200UTC 31.7N 125.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171200UTC 34.1N 131.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 30.2N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 31.7N 125.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171200UTC 34.1N 131.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 992 HPA
AT 30.2N 125.7E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 30.4N 125.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 31.7N 125.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 34.1N 131.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 30.2N 125.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 31.5N 125.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 170600UTC 33.9N 129.0E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 30.2N 125.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 31.5N 125.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 170600UTC 33.9N 129.0E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210915075505
2021091506 19W CHANTHU 037 01 105 04 SATL 030
T000 302N 1262E 045 R034 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 135 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 304N 1259E 050 R050 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 312N 1259E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 326N 1272E 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 339N 1301E 045 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 366N 1394E 040 R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 037
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 30.2N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 30.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.6N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.9N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 36.6N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 126.1E.
15SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249
NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 303N1253E 35
1921091500 303N1257E 35
1921091506 302N1262E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 30.2N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 30.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.6N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 33.9N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 36.6N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 126.1E.
15SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249
NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 30.4N, 125.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 30.4N 125.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 31.2N 124.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 170600UTC 33.9N 129.0E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 30.4N 125.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 31.2N 124.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 170600UTC 33.9N 129.0E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 992 HPA
AT 30.4N 125.9E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 31.2N 124.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 33.9N 129.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 30.3N 125.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 30.9N 124.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 170000UTC 33.3N 127.4E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 30.3N 125.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 30.9N 124.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 170000UTC 33.3N 127.4E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210915020111
2021091500 19W CHANTHU 036 01 100 06 SATL SYNP 020
T000 301N 1261E 030
T012 300N 1259E 035 R034 140 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 307N 1258E 035 R034 130 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 318N 1265E 030
T048 335N 1288E 025
T072 377N 1369E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 036
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 30.1N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 30.0N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 30.7N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 31.8N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.5N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 37.7N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 126.1E.
15SEP21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 302N1254E 30
1921091500 301N1261E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 30.1N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 30.0N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 30.7N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 31.8N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.5N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 37.7N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 126.1E.
15SEP21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
257 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 30.3N, 125.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 30.3N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 30.6N 124.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170000UTC 33.3N 127.4E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 30.3N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 30.6N 124.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170000UTC 33.3N 127.4E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 996 HPA
AT 30.3N 125.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 30.6N 124.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 33.3N 127.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 30.2N 125.5E FAIR
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 30.4N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 161800UTC 32.6N 126.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 171800UTC 35.8N 134.6E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 30.2N 125.5E FAIR
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 30.4N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 161800UTC 32.6N 126.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 171800UTC 35.8N 134.6E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210914185621
2021091418 19W CHANTHU 035 01 125 05 SATL SYNP 025
T000 302N 1254E 030
T012 301N 1256E 030
T024 304N 1256E 030
T036 312N 1259E 025
T048 324N 1272E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 035
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 035
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 30.2N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.1N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 30.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.4N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 125.4E.
14SEP21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1249E 40
1921091418 302N1254E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 035
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 30.2N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.1N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 30.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.4N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 125.4E.
14SEP21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 30.2N, 125.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 30.2N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE SE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 30.3N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 161800UTC 32.6N 126.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 171800UTC 35.8N 134.6E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 30.2N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE SE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 30.3N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 161800UTC 32.6N 126.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 171800UTC 35.8N 134.6E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 996 HPA
AT 30.2N 125.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 30.3N 125.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 32.6N 126.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 35.8N 134.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 30.5N 124.9E FAIR
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 30.4N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 161200UTC 32.1N 125.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 171200UTC 35.3N 132.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 30.5N 124.9E FAIR
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 30.4N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 161200UTC 32.1N 125.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 171200UTC 35.3N 132.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210914132639
2021091412 19W CHANTHU 034 01 120 04 SATL 030
T000 305N 1247E 045 R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 302N 1253E 045 R034 160 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 303N 1254E 040 R034 150 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 309N 1254E 040 R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 321N 1262E 035 R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 352N 1328E 035 R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 396N 1436E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 034
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 30.5N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 30.3N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 30.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 32.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 35.2N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 39.6N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 30.4N 124.9E.
14SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 299
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
1921091412 305N1247E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 30.5N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 30.3N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 30.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 32.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 35.2N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 39.6N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 30.4N 124.9E.
14SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 299
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 124.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 30.5N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE SE 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 30.3N 125.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 161200UTC 32.1N 125.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 171200UTC 35.3N 132.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2114 CHANTHU (2114) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 30.5N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE SE 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 30.3N 125.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 161200UTC 32.1N 125.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 171200UTC 35.3N 132.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 992 HPA
AT 30.5N 124.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 30.3N 125.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 32.1N 125.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 35.3N 132.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 30.7N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE ESE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 30.4N 125.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 31.7N 124.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 170600UTC 34.7N 129.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 180600UTC 38.9N 141.3E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 990 HPA
AT 30.7N 124.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 30.4N 125.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 30.7N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE ESE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 30.4N 125.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 31.7N 124.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 170600UTC 34.7N 129.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210914073428
2021091406 19W CHANTHU 033 01 145 07 SATL 020
T000 307N 1243E 045 R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 303N 1250E 045 R034 180 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 302N 1252E 040 R034 180 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 306N 1251E 040 R034 150 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 315N 1254E 035 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 345N 1305E 035 R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 387N 1414E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 033
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 30.7N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 30.3N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.2N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 30.6N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.5N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 34.5N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 38.7N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 30.6N 124.5E.
14SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091318 311N1236E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091400 313N1238E 50
1921091406 307N1243E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 30.7N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 30.3N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.2N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 30.6N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.5N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 34.5N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 38.7N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 30.6N 124.5E.
14SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 30.9N, 124.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 30.9N 124.2E FAIR
MOVE SE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 30.3N 125.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 31.7N 124.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 170600UTC 34.7N 129.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 180600UTC 38.9N 141.3E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2114 CHANTHU (2114) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 30.9N 124.2E FAIR
MOVE SE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 30.3N 125.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 31.7N 124.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 170600UTC 34.7N 129.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 30.9N 124.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 30.3N 125.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 31.7N 124.8E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 34.7N 129.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 38.9N 141.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 31.0N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 35NM
30KT 280NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 30.5N 124.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 160000UTC 30.9N 124.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 170000UTC 33.8N 127.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 180000UTC 37.2N 138.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140300
WARNING 140300.
WARNING VALID 150300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 980 HPA
AT 31.0N 123.9E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 35 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 30.5N 124.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 31.0N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 35NM
30KT 280NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 30.5N 124.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 160000UTC 30.9N 124.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 170000UTC 33.8N 127.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210914004809
2021091400 19W CHANTHU 032 01 050 03 SATL SYNP 020
T000 313N 1238E 055 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 145 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 312N 1243E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 309N 1247E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 306N 1243E 045 R034 140 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 314N 1245E 045 R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 341N 1278E 040 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 385N 1381E 040 R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 436N 1501E 045 R034 240 NE QD 260 SE QD 210 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 032
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 032
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 31.3N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.2N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 30.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 31.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 34.1N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 38.5N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 43.6N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 31.3N 123.9E.
14SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND
150300Z.//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 311N1235E 65
1921091318 311N1235E 65
1921091318 311N1235E 65
1921091400 313N1238E 55
1921091400 313N1238E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 032
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 31.3N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.2N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 30.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 31.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 34.1N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 38.5N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 43.6N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 31.3N 123.9E.
14SEP21. TROPICAL STORM 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND
150300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 31.3N, 123.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 IN A
STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 31.3N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 35NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 30.5N 124.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 160000UTC 30.9N 124.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 170000UTC 33.8N 127.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 180000UTC 37.2N 138.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 31.3N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 35NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 30.5N 124.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 160000UTC 30.9N 124.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 170000UTC 33.8N 127.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 980 HPA
AT 31.3N 123.8E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 35 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 30.5N 124.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 30.9N 124.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 33.8N 127.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 37.2N 138.0E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 31.4N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 35NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 30.6N 124.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 151800UTC 30.7N 123.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 161800UTC 33.0N 125.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 171800UTC 36.4N 134.6E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 31.4N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 35NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 30.6N 124.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 151800UTC 30.7N 123.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 161800UTC 33.0N 125.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 132100
WARNING 132100.
WARNING VALID 142100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 975 HPA
AT 31.4N 123.5E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 35 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 30.6N 124.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210913190250
2021091318 19W CHANTHU 031 01 010 05 SATL RADR SYNP 025
T000 315N 1235E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 315N 1240E 060 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 313N 1243E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 309N 1243E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 311N 1240E 045 R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 335N 1262E 040 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 379N 1357E 040 R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 437N 1480E 045 R034 260 NE QD 290 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 031
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 31.5N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.5N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.5N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.3N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.9N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 31.1N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 33.5N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 37.9N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 43.7N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 123.6E.
13SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z,
141500Z AND 142100Z.//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091318 315N1235E 65
1921091318 315N1235E 65
1921091318 315N1235E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 31.5N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.5N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.5N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.3N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.9N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 31.1N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 33.5N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 37.9N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 43.7N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 123.6E.
13SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z,
141500Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 31.4N, 123.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 IN A
STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 31.4N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 35NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 30.8N 124.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 151800UTC 30.7N 123.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 161800UTC 33.0N 125.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 171800UTC 36.4N 134.6E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 31.4N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 35NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 30.8N 124.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 151800UTC 30.7N 123.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 161800UTC 33.0N 125.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 975 HPA
AT 31.4N 123.5E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 35 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 30.8N 124.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 30.7N 123.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 33.0N 125.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 36.4N 134.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 31.0N 123.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 31.2N 123.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 151200UTC 31.4N 123.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 161200UTC 32.1N 124.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 171200UTC 35.3N 131.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 181200UTC 40.5N 143.8E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 131500
WARNING 131500.
WARNING VALID 141500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 970 HPA
AT 31.0N 123.2E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 31.2N 123.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 31.0N 123.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 31.2N 123.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 151200UTC 31.4N 123.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 161200UTC 32.1N 124.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210913132200
2021091312 19W CHANTHU 030 02 360 03 SATL RADR 040
T000 310N 1234E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 155 SE QD 125 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 313N 1236E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 312N 1242E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 308N 1245E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 307N 1240E 045 R034 130 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 330N 1256E 040 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 365N 1331E 040 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 030
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 31.0N 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0N 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 31.3N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.2N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.8N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 30.7N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 33.0N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 36.5N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 123.4E.
13SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM EAST
OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091218 275N1232E 90
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091300 290N1236E 85
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091306 307N1234E 75
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
1921091312 310N1234E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 31.0N 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0N 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 31.3N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.2N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.8N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 30.7N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 33.0N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 36.5N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 123.4E.
13SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98 NM EAST
OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 30.9N, 123.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360
DEGREES.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 IN A
STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 131200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 131200UTC 31.0N 123.2E
MOVEMENT N 2KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 140000UTC 31.1N 123.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 141200UTC 31.2N 122.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 150000UTC 31.4N 122.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 151200UTC 31.6N 122.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 161200UTC 32.9N 124.4E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 171200UTC 35.4N 131.0E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 181200UTC 38.1N 141.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 30.9N 123.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 31.1N 123.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 151200UTC 31.4N 123.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 161200UTC 32.1N 124.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 171200UTC 35.3N 131.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 181200UTC 40.5N 143.8E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 30.9N 123.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 31.1N 123.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 151200UTC 31.4N 123.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 161200UTC 32.1N 124.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 970 HPA
AT 30.9N 123.2E EAST CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 31.1N 123.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 31.4N 123.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 32.1N 124.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 35.3N 131.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 40.5N 143.8E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 30.8N 123.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 132100UTC 31.2N 122.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 140900UTC 31.5N 122.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 150600UTC 31.7N 122.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 160600UTC 32.0N 123.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 170600UTC 34.8N 128.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 180600UTC 38.7N 140.1E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 130900
WARNING 130900.
WARNING VALID 140900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 970 HPA
AT 30.8N 123.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 31.2N 122.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 31.5N 122.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 30.8N 123.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 31.5N 122.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 150600UTC 31.7N 122.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 160600UTC 32.0N 123.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 30.7N 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 31.7N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.9N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.8N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.8N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 32.1N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 35.3N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 39.1N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 31.0N 123.3E.
13SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 30.7N, 123.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 30.7N 123.3E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131800UTC 31.1N 123.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 140600UTC 31.4N 122.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 150600UTC 31.7N 122.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 160600UTC 32.0N 123.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 170600UTC 34.8N 128.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 180600UTC 38.7N 140.1E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 30.7N 123.3E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 31.4N 122.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 150600UTC 31.7N 122.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 160600UTC 32.0N 123.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 970 HPA
AT 30.7N 123.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 31.1N 123.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 31.4N 122.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 31.7N 122.9E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 32.0N 123.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 34.8N 128.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 38.7N 140.1E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 130445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130300 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AT FIRST, AND
MOVE SLOWLY LATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TYPHOON WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG
KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
THREE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (31.6 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (34.1 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (126.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 29.9N 123.6E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131500UTC 31.0N 122.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 140300UTC 31.3N 122.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 150000UTC 31.7N 122.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 160000UTC 32.1N 122.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 170000UTC 33.7N 125.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 180000UTC 36.6N 135.3E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 130300
WARNING 130300.
WARNING VALID 140300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 960 HPA
AT 29.9N 123.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 31.0N 122.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 31.3N 122.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 29.9N 123.6E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 31.3N 122.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 150000UTC 31.7N 122.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 160000UTC 32.1N 122.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 130300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210913015652
2021091300 19W CHANTHU 028 02 020 16 SATL RADR 020
T000 291N 1236E 085 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 305N 1235E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 311N 1232E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 316N 1232E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 318N 1237E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 327N 1252E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 351N 1292E 040 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 378N 1362E 045 R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 028
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 29.1N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.5N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 31.1N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.6N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.8N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 32.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 35.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 37.8N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 123.6E.
13SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 272 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z,
131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 276N1230E 90
1921091218 276N1230E 90
1921091218 276N1230E 90
1921091300 291N1236E 85
1921091300 291N1236E 85
1921091300 291N1236E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 29.1N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.5N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 31.1N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.6N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.8N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 32.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 35.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 37.8N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 123.6E.
13SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 272 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z,
131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
18W (CONSON) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 130145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130000 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AT FIRST, AND MOVE
SLOWLY LATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
THREE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (31.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC
THREE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (31.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC
THREE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (33.7 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (125.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 29.1N, 123.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN SHARPLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 130000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 130000UTC 29.1N 123.5E
MOVEMENT NNE 15KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 131200UTC 30.5N 122.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 140000UTC 31.1N 121.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 141200UTC 31.6N 121.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 150000UTC 31.9N 122.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 160000UTC 32.4N 122.8E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 170000UTC 33.8N 126.2E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 180000UTC 36.4N 134.6E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 29.1N 123.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 325NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131200UTC 30.9N 122.6E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 140000UTC 31.3N 122.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 150000UTC 31.7N 122.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 160000UTC 32.1N 122.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 170000UTC 33.7N 125.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 180000UTC 36.6N 135.3E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 29.1N 123.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 325NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 31.3N 122.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 150000UTC 31.7N 122.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 160000UTC 32.1N 122.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 960 HPA
AT 29.1N 123.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 30.9N 122.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 31.3N 122.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 31.7N 122.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 32.1N 122.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 33.7N 125.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 36.6N 135.3E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 122245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 122100 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (28.3 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC
THREE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (33.3 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 28.3N 123.2E GOOD
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 325NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130900UTC 30.7N 122.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 132100UTC 31.3N 122.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 141800UTC 31.8N 122.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 151800UTC 32.4N 122.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 161800UTC 33.2N 123.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 171800UTC 36.3N 132.3E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 122100
WARNING 122100.
WARNING VALID 132100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 960 HPA
AT 28.3N 123.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 30.7N 122.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 31.3N 122.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 28.3N 123.2E GOOD
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 325NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 31.3N 122.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 141800UTC 31.8N 122.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 151800UTC 32.4N 122.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210912200522
2021091218 19W CHANTHU 027 02 010 13 SATL RADR 015
T000 276N 1230E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 295N 1229E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 303N 1225E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 308N 1220E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 315N 1220E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 326N 1233E 045 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 341N 1265E 040 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 368N 1338E 040 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 027
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 27.6N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 123.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.5N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.3N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.8N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.6N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 34.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 36.8N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 123.0E.
12SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z
AND 132100Z.
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091206 252N1223E 105
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091212 263N1227E 95
1921091218 276N1230E 85
1921091218 276N1230E 85
1921091218 276N1230E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 27.6N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 123.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.5N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.3N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.8N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.6N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 34.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 36.8N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 123.0E.
12SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z
AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (CONSON) FINAL
WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 27.6N, 123.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME
DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 121945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 121800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC
THREE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (33.2 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 27.6N 123.0E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 325NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130600UTC 30.2N 122.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 131800UTC 31.2N 122.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 141800UTC 31.8N 122.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 151800UTC 32.4N 122.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 161800UTC 33.2N 123.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 171800UTC 36.3N 132.3E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 27.6N 123.0E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 325NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 31.2N 122.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 141800UTC 31.8N 122.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 151800UTC 32.4N 122.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 960 HPA
AT 27.6N 123.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 30.2N 122.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 31.2N 122.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 31.8N 122.1E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 32.4N 122.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 33.2N 123.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 36.3N 132.3E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 121645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 121500 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (31.0 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC
THREE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (33.0 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (35.9 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (131.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 26.8N 122.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 29.5N 122.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 131500UTC 30.8N 122.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 141200UTC 31.4N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 151200UTC 32.0N 122.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 161200UTC 32.6N 122.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 171200UTC 34.6N 128.7E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 121500
WARNING 121500.
WARNING VALID 131500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 960 HPA
AT 26.8N 122.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 29.5N 122.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 30.8N 122.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 26.8N 122.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 30.8N 122.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 141200UTC 31.4N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 151200UTC 32.0N 122.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210912133349
2021091212 19W CHANTHU 026 02 015 10 SATL RADR 030
T000 262N 1226E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 285N 1229E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 302N 1225E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 309N 1221E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 311N 1218E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 316N 1219E 045 R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 330N 1236E 040 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 357N 1304E 040 R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 026
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 26.2N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 122.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.5N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.2N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.1N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.6N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 33.0N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 35.7N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 26.8N 122.7E.
12SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 110
1921091212 262N1226E 95
1921091212 262N1226E 95
1921091212 262N1226E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 26.2N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 122.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.5N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.2N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.1N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.6N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 33.0N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 35.7N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 26.8N 122.7E.
12SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 26.2N, 122.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 26.2N 122.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 29.2N 122.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 131200UTC 30.7N 122.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 141200UTC 31.4N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 151200UTC 32.0N 122.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 161200UTC 32.6N 122.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 171200UTC 34.6N 128.7E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 26.2N 122.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 30.7N 122.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 141200UTC 31.4N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 151200UTC 32.0N 122.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 960 HPA
AT 26.2N 122.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 29.2N 122.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 30.7N 122.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 31.4N 122.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 32.0N 122.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 32.6N 122.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 34.6N 128.7E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 121045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 120900 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (25.7 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (30.5 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
THREE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (32.5 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (35.1 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (129.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 120900
WARNING 120900.
WARNING VALID 130900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 955 HPA
AT 25.7N 122.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 28.5N 122.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 30.6N 122.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 25.7N 122.4E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 28.5N 122.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 130900UTC 30.6N 122.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 140600UTC 31.6N 122.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 150600UTC 32.0N 122.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 160600UTC 32.4N 122.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 170600UTC 34.1N 127.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 25.7N 122.4E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 30.6N 122.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 140600UTC 31.6N 122.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 150600UTC 32.0N 122.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210912074314
2021091206 19W CHANTHU 025 02 360 14 SATL RADR 030
T000 252N 1223E 110 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 277N 1224E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 298N 1223E 095 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 307N 1219E 080 R064 045 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 311N 1217E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 314N 1214E 045 R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 331N 1236E 040 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 352N 1290E 040 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 025
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 25.2N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.7N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.8N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.7N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.1N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.4N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 33.1N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 35.2N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 25.8N 122.3E.
12SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM EAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091118 228N1220E 115
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 110
1921091206 252N1223E 110
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 25.2N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.7N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.8N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.7N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.1N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.4N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 33.1N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 35.2N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 25.8N 122.3E.
12SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM EAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 25.2N, 122.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 120745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 120600 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (25.2 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (30.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC
THREE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (32.7 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC
THREE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (36.3 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (131.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 25.2N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 27.7N 122.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 130600UTC 30.3N 122.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 140600UTC 31.6N 122.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 150600UTC 32.0N 122.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 160600UTC 32.4N 122.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 170600UTC 34.1N 127.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 25.2N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 30.3N 122.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 140600UTC 31.6N 122.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 150600UTC 32.0N 122.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 950 HPA
AT 25.2N 122.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 27.7N 122.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 30.3N 122.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 31.6N 122.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 32.0N 122.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 32.4N 122.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 34.1N 127.2E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 120445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 120300 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (122.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (122.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
THREE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (32.0 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (34.2 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (126.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 24.6N 122.4E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121500UTC 27.0N 122.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 130300UTC 29.8N 122.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 140000UTC 31.1N 121.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 150000UTC 31.3N 122.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 160000UTC 31.9N 122.4E 170NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 170000UTC 33.1N 125.0E 240NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 120300
WARNING 120300.
WARNING VALID 130300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 940 HPA
AT 24.6N 122.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 27.0N 122.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 29.8N 122.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 24.6N 122.4E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130300UTC 29.8N 122.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 140000UTC 31.1N 121.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 150000UTC 31.3N 122.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210912015334
2021091200 19W CHANTHU 024 02 015 10 SATL RADR 010
T000 238N 1223E 110 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 259N 1224E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 280N 1225E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 295N 1225E 080 R064 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 303N 1224E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 315N 1227E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 324N 1240E 045 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 336N 1265E 040 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 024
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.9N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.0N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.5N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.3N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.5N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 32.4N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 122.3E.
12SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z,
121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 110
1921091118 228N1220E 110
1921091118 228N1220E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
1921091200 238N1223E 110
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.9N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.0N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.5N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.3N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.5N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 32.4N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 33.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 122.3E.
12SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z,
121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
18W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 23.8N, 122.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 120145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 120000 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC
THREE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (31.8 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC
THREE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (33.9 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (125.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 120000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 120000UTC 23.8N 122.4E
MOVEMENT NNE 11KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 121200UTC 26.2N 122.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 130000UTC 29.0N 122.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 131200UTC 30.6N 121.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 140000UTC 31.0N 121.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 150000UTC 31.4N 121.9E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
96HR
POSITION 160000UTC 31.9N 122.4E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 170000UTC 33.3N 124.7E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 23.8N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 280NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121200UTC 26.2N 122.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 130000UTC 29.1N 122.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 140000UTC 31.1N 121.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 150000UTC 31.3N 122.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 160000UTC 31.9N 122.4E 170NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 170000UTC 33.1N 125.0E 240NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 23.8N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 280NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 29.1N 122.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 140000UTC 31.1N 121.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 150000UTC 31.3N 122.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 935 HPA
AT 23.8N 122.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 26.2N 122.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 29.1N 122.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 31.1N 121.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 31.3N 122.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 31.9N 122.4E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 33.1N 125.0E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 112245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 112100 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (23.2 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (28.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC
THREE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (31.3 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
THREE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (31.7 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC
THREE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (33.4 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 23.2N 122.1E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 120900UTC 25.4N 122.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 122100UTC 28.3N 122.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 131800UTC 31.0N 121.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 141800UTC 31.1N 121.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 151800UTC 31.2N 121.5E 170NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 161800UTC 33.2N 123.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 112100
WARNING 112100.
WARNING VALID 122100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 935 HPA
AT 23.2N 122.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 25.4N 122.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 28.3N 122.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 23.2N 122.1E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 28.3N 122.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 131800UTC 31.0N 121.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 141800UTC 31.1N 121.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210911193449
2021091118 19W CHANTHU 023 02 010 10 SATL RADR 010
T000 228N 1220E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 248N 1222E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 271N 1223E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 290N 1223E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 080 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 301N 1222E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 310N 1223E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 318N 1232E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 327N 1252E 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.8N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.1N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 31.8N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 122.0E.
11SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z
IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND
122100Z.
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091118 228N1220E 110
1921091118 228N1220E 110
1921091118 228N1220E 110
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.8N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.1N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.0N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 31.8N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 32.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 122.0E.
11SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z
IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND
122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (CONSON) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 122.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, DRY AIR, LAND AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, DRY AIR, LAND AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 111945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 111800 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (31.3 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC
THREE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (33.0 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 111800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 111800UTC 22.8N 122.0E
MOVEMENT N 10KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 120600UTC 24.9N 122.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
24HR
POSITION 121800UTC 27.4N 122.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 130600UTC 30.0N 121.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 131800UTC 30.8N 121.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 141800UTC 31.0N 121.9E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 151800UTC 31.2N 122.1E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 161800UTC 32.4N 124.1E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 22.8N 122.0E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 120600UTC 24.7N 122.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 121800UTC 27.4N 122.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 131800UTC 31.0N 121.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 141800UTC 31.1N 121.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 151800UTC 31.2N 121.5E 170NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 161800UTC 33.2N 123.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 22.8N 122.0E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 27.4N 122.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 131800UTC 31.0N 121.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 141800UTC 31.1N 121.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 935 HPA
AT 22.8N 122.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 24.7N 122.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 27.4N 122.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 31.0N 121.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 31.1N 121.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 31.2N 121.5E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 33.2N 123.7E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 111645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 111500 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC
TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (122.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (30.5 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (30.5 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC
THREE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (32.1 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 22.3N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 120300UTC 24.0N 122.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 121500UTC 26.5N 122.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 131200UTC 30.4N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 141200UTC 30.7N 121.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 151200UTC 30.8N 121.9E 170NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 161200UTC 32.3N 123.9E 240NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 111500
WARNING 111500.
WARNING VALID 121500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 920 HPA
AT 22.3N 121.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 24.0N 122.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 26.5N 122.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 22.3N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 26.5N 122.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 131200UTC 30.4N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 141200UTC 30.7N 121.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210911141640
2021091112 19W CHANTHU 022 02 015 07 SATL RADR 030
T000 218N 1218E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 235N 1220E 120 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 259N 1223E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 281N 1222E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 298N 1221E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 150 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 308N 1221E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 000 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 312N 1226E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 319N 1244E 050 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 022
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.9N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.2N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 31.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 121.8E.
11SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091106 211N1216E 135
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
1921091112 218N1218E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.9N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.2N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 31.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 121.8E.
11SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM
SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 21.8N, 121.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 111345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 111200 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (25.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (30.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (30.5 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC
THREE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (31.9 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 111200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 111200UTC 21.8N 121.8E
MOVEMENT ENE 11KT
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 120000UTC 23.3N 122.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
24HR
POSITION 121200UTC 25.7N 122.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
36HR
POSITION 130000UTC 28.3N 122.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 131200UTC 30.1N 121.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 141200UTC 30.8N 122.0E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 151200UTC 31.0N 122.2E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 161200UTC 32.0N 123.9E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 21.8N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 120000UTC 23.4N 122.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 121200UTC 25.9N 122.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 131200UTC 30.4N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 141200UTC 30.7N 121.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 151200UTC 30.8N 121.9E 170NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 161200UTC 32.3N 123.9E 240NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 21.8N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 25.9N 122.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 131200UTC 30.4N 122.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 141200UTC 30.7N 121.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 920 HPA
AT 21.8N 121.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 23.4N 122.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 25.9N 122.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 30.4N 122.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 30.7N 121.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 30.8N 121.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 32.3N 123.9E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 111045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 110900 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (25.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
THREE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (31.7 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 21.3N 121.6E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 112100UTC 22.9N 122.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 120900UTC 25.2N 122.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 130600UTC 29.9N 122.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 140600UTC 31.0N 122.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 150600UTC 30.4N 122.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 160600UTC 31.2N 124.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 910 HPA
AT 21.3N 121.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 22.9N 122.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 25.2N 122.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 21.3N 121.6E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 25.2N 122.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 130600UTC 29.9N 122.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 140600UTC 31.0N 122.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210911080427
2021091106 19W CHANTHU 021 02 340 08 SATL RADR 040
T000 211N 1216E 140 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 125 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 227N 1217E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 249N 1220E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 272N 1221E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 297N 1222E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 308N 1223E 075 R064 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 312N 1229E 060 R050 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 315N 1243E 055 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 021
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 21.1N 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.9N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.2N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.7N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.8N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.2N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.5N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 121.6E.
11SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240
NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091006 179N1235E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091100 204N1219E 145
1921091106 211N1216E 140
1921091106 211N1216E 140
1921091106 211N1216E 140
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 21.1N 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.9N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.2N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 29.7N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.8N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.2N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.5N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 121.6E.
11SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240
NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 121.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 110745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 110600 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120600 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (122.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC
THREE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (31.6 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 110600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 110600UTC 21.0N 121.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 111800UTC 22.5N 121.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
24HR
POSITION 120600UTC 24.1N 121.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 121800UTC 25.9N 121.5E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 130600UTC 27.8N 121.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 140600UTC 30.7N 122.2E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 150600UTC 31.0N 123.3E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 160600UTC 31.2N 124.3E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 21.0N 121.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 111800UTC 22.3N 121.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 120600UTC 24.7N 122.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 130600UTC 29.9N 122.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 140600UTC 31.0N 122.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 150600UTC 30.4N 122.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 160600UTC 31.2N 124.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 21.0N 121.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 24.7N 122.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 130600UTC 29.9N 122.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 140600UTC 31.0N 122.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 110600
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 910 HPA
AT 21.0N 121.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 22.3N 121.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 24.7N 122.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 29.9N 122.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 31.0N 122.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 30.4N 122.8E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 31.2N 124.1E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 110445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 110300 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 920 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N) ONE
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120300 UTC
TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (28.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 20.8N 121.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 111500UTC 22.0N 121.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 120300UTC 23.9N 122.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 130000UTC 28.2N 122.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 140000UTC 31.2N 122.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 150000UTC 30.6N 122.6E 170NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 160000UTC 30.7N 123.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 110300
WARNING 110300.
WARNING VALID 120300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 910 HPA
AT 20.8N 121.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 22.0N 121.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 23.9N 122.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 20.8N 121.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 23.9N 122.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 130000UTC 28.2N 122.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 140000UTC 31.2N 122.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 20.3N, 122.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
905HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 115KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210911012238
2021091100 19W CHANTHU 020 02 340 08 SATL RADR 020
T000 203N 1220E 145 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 085 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 218N 1217E 130 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 234N 1218E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 254N 1221E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 275N 1224E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 305N 1231E 070 R064 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 312N 1243E 055 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 312N 1261E 055 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 020
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.8N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.4N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.4N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.5N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.2N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 31.2N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 121.9E.
11SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490
NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z.
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1234E 145
1921091006 179N1234E 145
1921091006 179N1234E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091100 203N1220E 145
1921091100 203N1220E 145
1921091100 203N1220E 145
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 122.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 122.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.8N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.4N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.4N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.5N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.2N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 31.2N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 121.9E.
11SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490
NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (CONSON)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 110145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 110000 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 905 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 120 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC
TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 110 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (28.2 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (123.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 110000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 110000UTC 20.3N 122.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 111200UTC 21.8N 121.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 120000UTC 23.2N 121.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
36HR
POSITION 121200UTC 25.0N 121.5E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 130000UTC 27.0N 121.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 140000UTC 30.3N 122.0E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 150000UTC 30.9N 123.0E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 160000UTC 31.1N 124.1E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 20.3N 122.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 111200UTC 21.4N 121.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 120000UTC 23.1N 122.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 130000UTC 28.2N 122.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 140000UTC 31.2N 122.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 150000UTC 30.6N 122.6E 170NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 160000UTC 30.7N 123.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 20.3N 122.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 23.1N 122.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 130000UTC 28.2N 122.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 140000UTC 31.2N 122.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 110000
WARNING 110000.
WARNING VALID 120000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 905 HPA
AT 20.3N 122.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 21.4N 121.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 23.1N 122.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 28.2N 122.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 31.2N 122.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 30.6N 122.6E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 30.7N 123.6E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 102245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 102100 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 890 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 130 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 112100 UTC
TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 120 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (123.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 19.9N 122.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 110900UTC 20.9N 121.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 112100UTC 22.4N 122.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 121800UTC 26.4N 122.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 131800UTC 30.9N 122.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 141800UTC 31.0N 123.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 151800UTC 30.6N 125.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 102100
WARNING 102100.
WARNING VALID 112100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 905 HPA
AT 19.9N 122.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 20.9N 121.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 22.4N 122.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 19.9N 122.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 22.4N 122.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 121800UTC 26.4N 122.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 131800UTC 30.9N 122.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 19.5N, 122.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 905HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
115KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE
AND MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210910200235
2021091018 19W CHANTHU 019 02 330 09 SATL RADR 015
T000 195N 1223E 155 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 155 SE QD 105 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 209N 1217E 140 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 224N 1216E 120 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 242N 1219E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 265N 1223E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 302N 1229E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 312N 1239E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 311N 1255E 055 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 019
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.9N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.4N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.2N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.5N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.2N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.2N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 31.1N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 122.1E.
10SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518
NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101800Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z,
111500Z AND 112100Z.
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1234E 145
1921091006 179N1234E 145
1921091006 179N1234E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091012 187N1228E 150
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
1921091018 195N1223E 155
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.9N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.4N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.2N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.5N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.2N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.2N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 31.1N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 122.1E.
10SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518
NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101800Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z,
111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (CONSON)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 101945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 101800 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 890 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 130 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 120 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC
TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (122.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 101800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 101800UTC 19.5N 122.3E
MOVEMENT NNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 110600UTC 21.1N 121.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
24HR
POSITION 111800UTC 22.5N 121.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
36HR
POSITION 120600UTC 24.0N 121.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 121800UTC 26.1N 121.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 131800UTC 29.9N 121.8E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 141800UTC 30.8N 122.6E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 151800UTC 31.1N 124.0E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 19.5N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 110600UTC 20.6N 121.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 111800UTC 21.8N 121.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 121800UTC 26.4N 122.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 131800UTC 30.9N 122.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 141800UTC 31.0N 123.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 151800UTC 30.6N 125.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 19.5N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 21.8N 121.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 121800UTC 26.4N 122.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 131800UTC 30.9N 122.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 905 HPA
AT 19.5N 122.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 20.6N 121.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 21.8N 121.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 26.4N 122.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 30.9N 122.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 31.0N 123.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 30.6N 125.0E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 101645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 101500 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 890 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (122.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 130 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 115 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (25.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 19.1N 122.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 110300UTC 20.6N 121.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 111500UTC 21.6N 121.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 121200UTC 24.7N 122.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 131200UTC 30.0N 123.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 141200UTC 30.8N 123.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 151200UTC 30.4N 125.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 19.1N 122.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 21.6N 121.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 121200UTC 24.7N 122.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 131200UTC 30.0N 123.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 101500
WARNING 101500.
WARNING VALID 111500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 905 HPA
AT 19.1N 122.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 20.6N 121.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 21.6N 121.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210910143656
2021091012 19W CHANTHU 018 02 325 10 SATL 010
T000 187N 1228E 140 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 201N 1218E 130 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 214N 1215E 120 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 230N 1217E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 252N 1222E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 298N 1227E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 312N 1235E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 310N 1251E 050 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 018
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 122.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 122.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.1N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.4N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.0N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.2N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.8N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.2N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 122.5E.
10SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1234E 145
1921091006 179N1234E 145
1921091006 179N1234E 145
1921091012 187N1228E 140
1921091012 187N1228E 140
1921091012 187N1228E 140
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 122.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 122.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.1N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.4N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.0N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.2N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.8N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.2N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 122.5E.
10SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 18.7N, 122.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 115KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 101345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 101200 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 890 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 130 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 115 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (24.7 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 18.7N 122.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 110000UTC 20.2N 121.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 111200UTC 21.3N 121.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 121200UTC 24.7N 122.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 131200UTC 30.0N 123.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 141200UTC 30.8N 123.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 151200UTC 30.4N 125.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE ESE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 18.7N 122.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 21.3N 121.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 121200UTC 24.7N 122.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 131200UTC 30.0N 123.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 910 HPA
AT 18.7N 122.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 20.2N 121.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 21.3N 121.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 24.7N 122.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 30.0N 123.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 30.8N 123.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 30.4N 125.3E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 101045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 100900 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 890 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 130 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110900 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 115 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (29.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (123.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 18.3N 123.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 102100UTC 19.8N 122.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 110900UTC 20.8N 121.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 120600UTC 23.3N 122.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 130600UTC 28.0N 123.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 140600UTC 30.8N 123.5E 230NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 150600UTC 30.8N 124.9E 320NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 100900
WARNING 100900.
WARNING VALID 110900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 920 HPA
AT 18.3N 123.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 19.8N 122.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 20.8N 121.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 18.3N 123.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 20.8N 121.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 120600UTC 23.3N 122.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 130600UTC 28.0N 123.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210910074252
2021091006 19W CHANTHU 017 02 320 10 SATL 010
T000 179N 1234E 145 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 194N 1221E 140 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 206N 1214E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 218N 1213E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 236N 1216E 105 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 282N 1222E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 302N 1229E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 309N 1244E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 017
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.4N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.6N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.8N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.6N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.2N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.2N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 123.1E.
10SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 54 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091006 179N1234E 145
1921091006 179N1234E 145
1921091006 179N1234E 145
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.4N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.6N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.8N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.6N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.2N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.2N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 123.1E.
10SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 54 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 17.8N, 123.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
EASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 100745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 100600 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 900 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 125 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 110 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120600 UTC
TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (23.6 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (122.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 100600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 100600UTC 17.9N 123.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 101800UTC 19.6N 122.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
24HR
POSITION 110600UTC 21.2N 121.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
36HR
POSITION 111800UTC 22.4N 121.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
48HR
POSITION 120600UTC 24.3N 121.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 130600UTC 28.1N 121.5E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 140600UTC 30.4N 122.1E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 150600UTC 31.0N 123.8E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 17.8N 123.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 101800UTC 19.5N 122.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 110600UTC 20.6N 121.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 120600UTC 23.3N 122.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 130600UTC 28.0N 123.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 140600UTC 30.8N 123.5E 230NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 150600UTC 30.8N 124.9E 320NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 17.8N 123.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 20.6N 121.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 120600UTC 23.3N 122.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 130600UTC 28.0N 123.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 100600
WARNING 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 925 HPA
AT 17.8N 123.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 19.5N 122.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 20.6N 121.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 23.3N 122.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 28.0N 123.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 30.8N 123.5E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 30.8N 124.9E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 100445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 100300 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 905 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (123.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 120 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 110 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120300 UTC
TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (30.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 17.5N 123.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 101500UTC 19.1N 122.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 110300UTC 20.3N 121.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 120000UTC 22.0N 121.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 130000UTC 25.8N 122.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 140000UTC 29.4N 122.8E 230NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 150000UTC 30.4N 122.7E 320NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 100300
WARNING 100300.
WARNING VALID 110300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 935 HPA
AT 17.5N 123.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 19.1N 122.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 20.3N 121.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 17.5N 123.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 20.3N 121.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 120000UTC 22.0N 121.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 130000UTC 25.8N 122.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CHANTHU IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 124.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210910012636
2021091000 19W CHANTHU 016 02 300 10 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 171N 1241E 130 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 186N 1227E 135 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 200N 1216E 135 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 211N 1211E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 227N 1211E 105 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 263N 1215E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 293N 1227E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 310N 1240E 050 R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 016
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 016
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.6N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.0N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.1N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.7N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.3N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.3N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 123.7E.
10SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM
SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090818 153N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090906 157N1272E 130
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090912 161N1260E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921090918 166N1250E 120
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
1921091000 171N1241E 130
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 016
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 016
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.6N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.0N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.1N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.7N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.3N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.3N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.0N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 123.7E.
10SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM
SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND
110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 100145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 100000 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 915 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 110 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC
TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (22.6 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 100000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 2114 CHANTHU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 100000UTC 17.1N 124.1E
MOVEMENT NW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 101200UTC 18.9N 122.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 110000UTC 20.6N 121.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
36HR
POSITION 111200UTC 22.0N 121.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
48HR
POSITION 120000UTC 23.5N 121.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 130000UTC 27.2N 121.5E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 140000UTC 30.0N 122.0E WITHIN 165NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 150000UTC 30.9N 123.7E WITHIN 230NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 935 HPA
AT 17.1N 124.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 18.7N 122.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 20.1N 121.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 22.0N 121.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 25.8N 122.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 29.4N 122.8E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 30.4N 122.7E WITH 320 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 092245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 092100 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 915 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 102100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 110 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 112100 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC
TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (26.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC
TWO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (29.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 092100
WARNING 092100.
WARNING VALID 102100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 935 HPA
AT 16.9N 124.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 18.5N 123.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 20.0N 122.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 091945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 091800 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON CHANTHU (2114) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 915 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 115 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 101800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (122.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 110 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111800 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (25.7 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (29.7 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 091500
WARNING 091500.
WARNING VALID 101500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 935 HPA
AT 16.3N 125.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 17.6N 124.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 19.3N 123.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 090900
WARNING 090900.
WARNING VALID 100900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 935 HPA
AT 16.0N 126.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 16.8N 125.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 18.3N 123.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 090300
WARNING 090300.
WARNING VALID 100300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 935 HPA
AT 15.5N 127.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 16.3N 126.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 17.7N 124.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 090200
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210909011959
2021090900 19W CHANTHU 012 02 275 10 SATL 010
T000 155N 1281E 140 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 162N 1262E 140 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 174N 1244E 135 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 190N 1228E 135 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 207N 1216E 125 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 241N 1203E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 277N 1208E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 304N 1218E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 012
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.0N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.7N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.1N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.7N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.4N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 127.6E.
09SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS
48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090800 160N1323E 130
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090806 156N1313E 140
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090812 155N1303E 135
1921090818 154N1291E 135
1921090818 154N1291E 135
1921090818 154N1291E 135
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
1921090900 155N1281E 140
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 090200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.4N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.0N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.7N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.1N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.7N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 30.4N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 127.6E.
09SEP21. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS
48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (CONSON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 082100
WARNING 082100.
WARNING VALID 092100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 935 HPA
AT 15.5N 128.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 15.8N 127.2E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 17.0N 125.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 940 HPA
AT 15.5N 129.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 15.6N 128.2E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 16.5N 126.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 080900
WARNING 080900.
WARNING VALID 090900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 940 HPA
AT 15.6N 130.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 15.4N 129.2E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 16.0N 127.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 080300
WARNING 080300.
WARNING VALID 090300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 945 HPA
AT 15.9N 131.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 15.7N 130.4E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 16.1N 128.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19W NWP 210908011313
2021090800 19W CHANTHU 008 02 255 12 SATL 015
T000 160N 1323E 120 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 160N 1304E 135 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 163N 1283E 135 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 172N 1261E 125 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 184N 1240E 125 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 204N 1212E 130 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 221N 1191E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 238N 1173E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 008
1. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 132.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 132.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.0N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.3N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.2N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.4N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.4N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.1N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.8N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 131.8E.
08SEP21. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z,
081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
1921090506 123N1397E 15
1921090512 126N1395E 20
1921090518 130N1389E 20
1921090600 135N1385E 20
1921090606 141N1382E 25
1921090612 148N1379E 35
1921090618 152N1373E 45
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090700 156N1366E 50
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090706 161N1357E 70
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090712 163N1346E 95
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090718 163N1335E 125
1921090800 160N1323E 120
1921090800 160N1323E 120
1921090800 160N1323E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 072100
WARNING 072100.
WARNING VALID 082100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 960 HPA
AT 16.1N 132.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 15.6N 131.6E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 15.7N 129.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2114 CHANTHU (2114) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 980
HPA
AT 16.3N 134.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 16.3N 132.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 16.2N 131.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 070900
WARNING 070900.
WARNING VALID 080900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 994 HPA
AT 16.2N 135.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 16.4N 132.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 070300
WARNING 070300.
WARNING VALID 080300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2114 CHANTHU (2114) 1000 HPA
AT 16.0N 136.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 16.4N 133.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=