Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MINDY-21
in United States

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Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 100248
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

The structure of Mindy this evening has become quite diffuse, with a
linear band of convection mostly associated with a prominent outflow
boundary emanating away from the system. The last-light visible
low-level cloud motions gave the impression that Mindy was opening
up into a trough, with southwesterly flow ahead and northeasterly
flow immediately behind the estimated center. Indeed, a ASCAT-A pass
valid at 0002 UTC suggested that Mindy no longer has closed cyclonic
flow on its northeast side, with a lack of easterly wind vectors in
this sector of the system. In addition, a rapidly advancing frontal
boundary has already moved off of the Carolina coast and will
soon be merging with the leftover vort-max associated with Mindy.
The accumulation of all this evidence indicates that Mindy no
longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be
the final advisory on the system.

The post-tropical remains of Mindy have continued to accelerate to
the east-northeast this evening at 070/25 kt, moving almost as
quickly as the the maximum sustained winds, which is another reason
why the circulation is likely no longer closed. This motion should
continue for the next 12-24 hours with a gradual slowdown until what
remains of the circulation becomes indistinguishable from the
frontal boundary it is becoming embedded in.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 32.5N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 10/1200Z 33.2N 71.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/0000Z 34.1N 67.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 100246
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...MINDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT ACCELERATES AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy
was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 29
mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a
gradual slowdown until the system dissipates Friday night or
Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening of the winds is expected before the system
dissipates.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 100245
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021
0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 75.0W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 75.0W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 76.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.2N 71.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.1N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 75.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 092039
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

The latest infrared satellite imagery indicates that Mindy has been
devoid of convection near its center since about the time it emerged
over the Atlantic this morning. Deep convection is present well to
the northeast of Mindy along a surface trough that extends
northeastward from the cyclone. A late morning ASCAT pass showed a
large area of 25 to 30 kt winds southeast of the center. The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on this data. The ASCAT data and
surface observations indicate that the circulation has become less
well-defined, with barely any east winds observed on the north
side.

Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly
vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to
become even stronger. The latest forecast calls for Mindy to become
post-tropical on Friday and dissipate Friday night. However, based
on the lack on convection and the deteriorating wind structure, it
is quite possible that dissipation could occur much sooner than
forecast.

Mindy continues moving quickly off to the east-northeast, with a
motion of 075/20 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast
philosophy. Mindy is forecast to continue moving east-northeastward
at a similar speed for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a
deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States. Once the
trough begins to lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little
on Friday. The NHC forecast is a little south of and slightly faster
than the previous forecast, mainly due to the farther south initial
position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 32.0N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 092037
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...MINDY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 78.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy
was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 78.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed
by a decrease in forward speed on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, and Mindy is forecast to become a
remnant low on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 092036
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021
2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.3W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.3W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 78.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 091452
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of
Mindy has recently moved offshore the coast of Georgia. Buoy
41008 located off the Georgia coast recently recorded 1-min
sustained winds of 29 kt with gusts as high as 33 kt. Thus, 30 kt
is maintained as the intensity for this advisory.

Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly
vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to
become even stronger. The strong shear should prevent
restrengthening and is likely to strip away any remaining convection
by Friday or Friday night. Mindy is forecast to become
post-tropical Friday evening. Most of the global models suggest
that the cyclone will open up into a trough in 36-48 h, but it is
possible this could happen sooner, as surface observations already
show that easterly winds on the north side have become quite weak.
The NHC forecast calls for dissipation Friday night, which is sooner
than the previous advisory.

Mindy continues moving quickly to the east-northeast or 065/18 kt.
There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Mindy is
forecast to continue moving east-northeastward at a similar speed
for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough
moving across the eastern United States. Once the trough begins to
lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little on Friday. The
main adjustment to the NHC track is to show a slightly faster motion
toward the east-northeast at the 24-36 h points.

Key Messages:

1. Mindy will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of
coastal South Carolina through early this afternoon. This rainfall
may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 31.5N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 32.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 33.6N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 34.3N 70.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 091451
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...CENTER OF MINDY MOVES OFFSHORE THE GEORGIA COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy
was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 80.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed
by a decrease in forward speed on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Mindy is expected to become a
remnant low by Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to
4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions
of coastal South Carolina through early this afternoon. This
rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small
stream flooding.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur near the coast
of southeastern Georgia for another few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 091451
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021
1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 80.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 80.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 81.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.6N 73.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.3N 70.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 80.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 091012 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Corrected to show next advisory at 1100 AM EDT

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MINDY SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the Gulf coast of Florida has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and
southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower
east-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move
across southeastern Georgia this morning, and over the western
Atlantic by late this morning or early this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual
weakening is expected on Friday, and Mindy is forecast to become
a remnant low by Saturday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to
4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions
of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina through this
morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash,
urban, and small stream flooding.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts may occur near the center of
Mindy over portions of the southeastern Georgia through this
morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north
Florida and far south Georgia through this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090842
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of
Mindy has moved inland over southern Georgia overnight. Now that
more of the circulation has moved over land, the cyclone has
weakened and the latest observations indicate that Mindy has
become a tropical depression with an estimated intensity of 30 kt.
Mindy is forecast to move over the western Atlantic by this
afternoon, but strong southwesterly shear is expected to prevent
re-strengthening. In fact, the shear is forecast to increase to
around 35 kt by tonight, and this is likely to strip away any
remaining deep convection and cause gradual weakening. Mindy is
forecast to become a remnant low in about 48 hours and dissipate by
day 3, but given the expected shear both of those events could
occur sooner.

Mindy continues to move briskly northeastward or 055/17 kt. There
has been no change to the track forecast philosophy since the
previous advisory. Mindy should continue to move northeastward near
the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that will be moving
across the eastern United States today. Once the trough begins to
lift northeastward late tonight and Friday, Mindy should slow down
and turn east-northeastward until dissipation occurs. The guidance
envelope has shifted slightly northward this cycle, and the updated
NHC track forecast has been modified accordingly. The new NHC track
lies between the GFEX consensus aid and the GFS ensemble mean.


Key Messages:

1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this morning. This
rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small
stream flooding.

2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible across portions of
southeastern Georgia this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 30.8N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090841
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MINDY SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the Gulf coast of Florida has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and
southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower
east-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move
across southeastern Georgia this morning, and over the western
Atlantic by late this morning or early this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual
weakening is expected on Friday, and Mindy is forecast to become
a remnant low by Saturday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to
4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions
of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina through this
morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash,
urban, and small stream flooding.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts may occur near the center of
Mindy over portions of the southeastern Georgia through this
morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north
Florida and far south Georgia through this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090841
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021
0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 83.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 83.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090557
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mindy Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...CENTER OF MINDY MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Florida Gulf
coast west of the Ochlockonee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Steinhatchee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and
southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Mindy is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and an
east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected to continue over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy
is expected to move across the northern Florida Peninsula and
southeastern Georgia overnight and into the Atlantic this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected as Mindy moves over land and
into an area of unfavorable upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. Sustained winds of 43 mph
(68 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) were measured at an
observing site near Shell Point, Florida, a couple of hours ago. A
wind gust to 38 mph (61 km/h) was recently reported at Tallahassee,
Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and
South Carolina through this morning. This rainfall may produce
isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

WIND: Tropical-storm force winds are expected within the warning
area for the next few hours. Tropical-storm-force winds especially
in gusts may occur near the center of Mindy over portions of the
northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia through this
morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north
Florida and far south Georgia through this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090246
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that the
center of Mindy made landfall over St. Vincent Island, Florida,
near 0115 UTC. Since that time, the center has been moving along
the shoreline of Apalachee Bay. The intensity is held at 40 kt
based on continuity from earlier buoy data and a 43-kt wind at an
elevated tower south of Apalachicola. The central pressure has
been lowered to 1002 mb based on surface obs from the Apalachicola
area. It should be noted that while Mindy is not well organized in
satellite imagery, but it has a good radar presentation.

The initial motion is 055/17. A general east-northeastward motion
should continue for the next 24 h or so as Mindy moves along the
southern edge of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the
eastern United States. After that, a decrease in forward speed and
a more eastward motion are expected as the aforementioned trough
moves away from Mindy and the cyclone becomes vertically shallow.
The forecast track keeps the center along the Gulf coast for a few
more hours, followed by a motion across northern Florida and
southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is
a little faster than the previous forecast.

Little change in strength is likely during the next few hours while
the center of Mindy straddles the coast. Weakening should occur as
the center moves farther inland later tonight, aided by an increase
in westerly vertical wind shear. By the time the cyclone reaches
the Atlantic, the shear should be strong enough to make the system
continue to weaken. The new intensity forecast is a little
stronger than the previous forecast during the first 12 h, then is
similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to
dissipate after 72 h.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from
the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South
Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce
isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in
portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible across
portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia
near the center of Mindy.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 29.9N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0000Z 32.2N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/1200Z 33.1N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 33.7N 70.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 34.1N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 34.3N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090246
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...CENTER OF MINDY MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 84.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Florida Gulf
coast west of Indian pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and
southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 84.5 West. Mindy is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and an
east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected to continue over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is
expected to move along the coastline of Apalachee Bay for the next
few hours, then move across the northern Florida Peninsula and
southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic by tomorrow morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected as Mindy moves over land and into an
area of unfavorable upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. The Tyndall Air Force Base
tower south of Apalachicola recently reported sustained winds of 49
mph (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation
of 115 ft (35 m). In addition, there are multiple reports of wind
gusts near 55 mph (89 km/h) from St. George Island, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce storm total
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and
South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce
isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area later this evening and tonight.
Tropical-storm force winds may occur near the center of Mindy over
portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north
Florida and far south Georgia through tomorrow morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090246
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021
0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.0N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.2N 77.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.1N 73.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 70.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.1N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 34.3N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 84.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 090117
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Mindy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
815 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...CENTER OF MINDY MAKES LANDFALL AT ST. VINCENT ISLAND FLORIDA...

National Weather Service Doppler radar data and surface
observations indicate that the center of Mindy has made landfall
over St. Vincent Island, Florida.

The Tyndall Air Force Base tower south of Apalachicola, Florida,
recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a wind
gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) at an elevation of 115 ft (35 m).


SUMMARY OF 815 PM CDT...0115 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 85.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 082340
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mindy Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
700 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...CENTER OF MINDY ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 85.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 85.4 West. Mindy is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a northeast to
east-northeast motion is expected to continue over the next several
days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to
cross the coastline of the Florida Panhandle during the next hour or
two, then cross portions of the Florida Panhandle and southeastern
Georgia tonight. Mindy is then expected to move offshore of the
southeastern United States into the western Atlantic Ocean by
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Mindy makes
landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
manly to the southeast of the center. During the past few hours,
NOAA buoy 42039 reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a
wind gust of 54 mph (86 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
NOAA buoy 42039 reported a minimum pressure of 1006.5 mb (29.72) as
the center passed nearby,


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida
Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina
through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to
scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area later this evening and tonight.

TORNADOES: A few isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of
the Florida Panhandle this evening into tomorrow morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 082201
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Mindy Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
500 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT MINDY IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

Recent data from NOAA buoy 42036 indicates that the maximum
sustained winds in Mindy are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 86.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 082102
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

Through the day, the area of disturbed weather in the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico has gradually become better organized on
geostationary satellite and Doppler radar imagery. Earlier, a 1515
UTC ASCAT-C pass found a number of southwesterly wind retrievals in
the 30-kt range on the southeast side of the formative circulation.
The ASCAT-C Ambiguities at that time also hinted that a very small
closed circulation was trying to develop along the edge of these
stronger winds. Since that time, a well-defined circulation become
evident on KEVX Doppler-radar with inbound velocities occasionally
nearing 40-45 kt to the southeast of the radar center. These
Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of
hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably
confident this circulation is now surface based. Just in the last
hour or so, NOAA buoy 42039 reported a peak 1-minute sustained wind
of 35 kt just southeast of the center, confirming the system now has
tropical storm force winds. Thus, advisories are being initiated
on tropical storm Mindy with maximum sustained wind of 35 kt.

The most recent estimated motion following the center on radar is to
the northeast at 050/18 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement
that this quick motion should continue with a gentle shift to the
east-northeast in the next 24-36 hours as the system is under the
influence of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the
eastern United States. On the current heading, the center of
Mindy should move inland over the Florida Panhandle in the next 6-12
hours and then already be offshore of the southeastern United States
by 24 hours. A gradual slowdown is expected thereafter as the
cyclone is left behind by this mid-latitude trough and also becomes
vertically shallow.

Little intensification is expected prior to landfall, with land
interaction resulting in Mindy weakening back to a depression by 24
hours. Conditions do not appear favorable for restrengthening off
the southeastern United States as shear is forecast to increase
above 30 knots in 24 hours. This shear will likely strip away from
remaining convection, and both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR
brightness temperatures suggest Mindy should become a remnant low in
the day 2-3 period. This remnant low is forecast to open up into a
trough shortly thereafter.

Key Messages:

1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida
Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina
through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to
scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in
portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 29.0N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 30.3N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 31.3N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/0600Z 32.3N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 32.9N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 33.4N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 33.3N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 082056
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of the
Florida Panhandle from Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Mindy is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and northeast to
east-northeastward motion is expected to continue over the next
several days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is
expected to cross the coastline of the Florida Panhandle later
tonight, and then move offshore of the southeastern United States
into the western Atlantic Ocean by tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before Mindy makes landfall in
the Florida Panhandle tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida
Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina
through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to
scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area later this evening and tonight.

TORNADOES: A few isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of
the Florida Panhandle this evening into tomorrow morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 082053
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021
2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.3N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.3N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.3N 75.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 32.9N 72.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 33.4N 69.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.3N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 86.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>