Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICHOLAS-21
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 150235
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nicholas Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Satellite imagery, radar data, and surface observation indicate
that the center of Nicholas is over the Beaumont/Port Arthur area
of southeastern Texas. The cyclone is currently comprised of a
large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and showers, with a few
patches of deep convection well removed from the center. The
initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a combination of Doppler
radar data and surface obs, and these winds are mainly over water
to the southeast of the center. Nicholas should continue to weaken
due to strong shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction,
and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low after 24
h and dissipate completely by 72 h. It should be noted that some
of the track guidance models show enough south of east motion to
bring the center back over the Gulf of Mexico in a day or two.
However, even if this should occur the shear and dry air should
prevent any re-development.

The initial motion is 060/5. While there is some spread in the
guidance, it generally agrees on a slow eastward motion for 36 h
or so, followed by a northward drift. The new forecast track has
only minor changes from the previous track.

Although the winds associated with Nicholas are subsiding, due
to the forecast slow motion, heavy rainfall and a significant flash
flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast for the next couple
of days.

The is the last advisory on Nicholas issued by the National
Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas across southern and central
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the
western Florida Panhandle through early Friday. Significant rainfall
amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of
life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas.
Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also
possible.

2. Storm surge inundation along the coasts of upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana will diminish tonight.

3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for a few more
hours along portion of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 30.0N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 30.2N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/0000Z 30.2N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/1200Z 30.4N 92.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1200Z 31.5N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 150234
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nicholas Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 94.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nicholas was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 94.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph
(9 km/h). A slow motion toward the east is expected tonight
through Wednesday night, followed by a northward drift on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Nicholas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low
Wednesday night or early Thursday.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is
1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern and central
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the
western Florida Panhandle through early Friday, with isolated storm
totals of 20 inches possible from southern Louisiana to the far
western Florida Panhandle. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts,
especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected
across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana
and Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4
with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will gradually subside into this
evening. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for a few
more hours along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. These
conditions should diminish later tonight and Wednesday morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible tonight through early
morning from southeast Louisiana to southwest Alabama.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast this evening and gradually subside
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header
WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 150234
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 94.1W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 94.1W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 94.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.2N 93.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.2N 92.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.4N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 94.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34
KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 142338
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 94.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nicholas was located by Doppler radars, satellites, and surface
observations near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 94.4 West.
Nicholas is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h)
and this general motion should continue through tonight. An
eastward turn is expected over Louisiana on Wednesday. Little
motion is anticipated on Thursday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during
the next couple of days, and Nicholas is forecast to degenerate into
a remnant low on Wednesday or by early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern and central
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the
western Florida Panhandle through early Friday, with isolated storm
totals of 20 inches possible from southern Louisiana to the far
western Florida Panhandle. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts,
especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected
across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana
and Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Nicholas see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will gradually subside into this
evening. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible this evening
along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. These conditions
should diminish tonight.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through tonight
across southern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast this evening and gradually subside
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 142056
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with
surface observations, indicate that the intensity of Nicholas has
remained steady over the past several hours despite having moved a
little farther inland over the upper Texas coastal plain. Both
satellite and radar data also indicate that the overall circulation
has tightened up somewhat, although a large swath of stable low
clouds have advected into most of the southern semicircle of
Nicholas' circulation. The highest sustained wind speeds of 34-36
kt have occurred in a narrow band of fragmented, shallow convection
between Sabine Pass, Texas, and Cameron, Louisiana, during the past
couple of hours. Doppler radar velocity data from Lake Charles has
also indicated wind speeds of 40-45 at 3,000 ft altitude just
offshore the southwestern coast of Louisiana. Based on these wind
data, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. The estimated central
pressure of 1003 mb is based on nearby surface observations,
especially the reports from the Eagle Point, Texas, C-MAN station,
which indicate that the center of Nicholas passed over or near that
station between 1800-1900 UTC. As Nicholas moves farther inland,
gradual weakening is forecast due to land interaction, entrainment
of drier and more stable low- and mid-level air, and strong
westerly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt. Nicholas is
forecast to become a tropical depression later this evening and
degenerate into a remnant low by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

The initial motion estimate is east-northeastward or 070 degrees at
5 kt. Nicholas is forecast by most of the global and regional models
continue its east-east-northeastward motion through tonight,
followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on
Wednesday and Thursday. Nicholas could still stall over southwestern
or central Louisiana as the low-level steering flow collapses on
Thursday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies near the consensus track models TCVA and
NOAA-HCCA.

Although the winds associated with Nicholas will gradually subside,
heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue
along the Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas across southern and central
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the
western Florida Panhandle through early Friday. Significant rainfall
amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of
life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas.
Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also
possible.

2. Storm surge inundation along the coasts of upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana will gradually diminish into tonight.

3. Tropical storm conditions in the warning area long portions of
the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts will gradually
subside by this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 29.6N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0600Z 29.8N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1800Z 30.0N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0600Z 30.1N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0600Z 30.9N 92.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 142051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 94.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located by Doppler radars, satellites, and surface observations
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this
general motion should continue through tonight. An eastward turn
is expected over Louisiana by Wednesday. Little motion is
anticipated on Thursday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Nicholas is forecast to become a tropical depression this
evening and degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday or by early
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. A NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Calcasieu
Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 36
mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern and central
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the
western Florida Panhandle through early Friday, with isolated storm
totals of 20 inches possible from southern Louisiana to the far
western Florida Panhandle. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts,
especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected
across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana
and Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4
with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft

Storm surge levels will gradually subside into this evening. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
Louisiana and upper Texas coasts this afternoon, and gradually
diminish by this evening.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this afternoon into
tonight across southern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast this afternoon and gradually subside
this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 142051
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
2100 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 94.6W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 94.6W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 94.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.8N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.0N 93.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.1N 92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.9N 92.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 94.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 95.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of High Island
including Galveston Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 95.0 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
general motion should continue through tonight. An eastward turn
is expected over Louisiana by Wednesday. Little motion is
anticipated on Thursday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and the storm is forecast to become a tropical
depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A TCOON observing
station at Texas Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, recently measured a
1-minute sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph
(85 km/h) while a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Calcasieu
Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of
39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of
5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to
southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday, with isolated
storm totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana.
Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized
metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across
portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4
with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this
afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the east.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight
across southern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 141457
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with
surface observations, indicate that Nicholas has continued to weaken
while moving farther inland. The strongest winds recently reported
near the Texas and Louisiana coasts have been 33-35 kt at a TCOON
observing station near Sabine Pass, Texas. The strongest winds over
water south of southwestern Louisiana are based on Doppler radar
average velocities of 45-50 kt between 5000-7500 ft. Based on these
wind data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt. The
estimated central pressure of 1002 mb is based on nearby surface
observations in the Houston metropolitan area. Further weakening is
expected as Nicholas moves farther inland due to frictional
effects, entrainment of very dry mid-level air from the southern
Plains, and increasing southwesterly to westerly shear. The latter
condition is expected to cause the low- and upper-level circulation
to decouple in about 24 hours, which will hasten the weakening
process. No significant changes were made to the previous intensity
forecast, and Nicholas is now expected to become a tropical
depression by tonight and degenerate into a remnant low by
late Wednesday.

Nicholas is now moving northeastward or 050 degrees at a slower
forward speed of 5 kt. The cyclone should gradually turn toward the
east-northeast by tonight, and move eastward more slowly on
Wednesday and Thursday. It is possible that Nicholas could stall
over southwestern or central Louisiana as the low-level steering
flow collapses. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but
slightly slower than the previous advisory tack.

Although the winds associated with Nicholas will be weakening,
heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue
along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas,
across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the
western Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Significant rainfall
amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of
life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Minor
to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river
basins and urban areas.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this
afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the northeast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 29.6N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0000Z 30.1N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1200Z 30.4N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0000Z 30.4N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1200Z 30.5N 92.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND
60H 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141452
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 95.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of High
Island, Texas.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Port
Bolivar, Texas.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued east of Cameron,
Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar Texas to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 95.3 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general
motion should continue today. The storm should move more slowly
toward the east-northeast by tonight, and then turn eastward on
Wednesday over Louisiana. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days as Nicholas moves farther inland, and the storm is
forecast to become a tropical depression by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A TCOON observing
station at Texas Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, recently measured a
1-minute sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of
5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to
southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday, with isolated
storm totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana.
Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized
metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across
portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4
with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Cameron, LA including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port Bolivar, TX...1-3 ft
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this
afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the northeast.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight
across southern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 141451
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
1500 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF HIGH
ISLAND...TEXAS.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT
BOLIVAR...TEXAS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF CAMERON...
LOUISIANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 95.3W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 95.3W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 95.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.1N 94.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.4N 93.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.4N 93.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N 92.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 95.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141153
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF BEAUMONT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of San Luis
Pass.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of San Luis
Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Cameron Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and that
general motion should continue this morning. The storm should move
more slowly to the northeast later today, and then turn eastward by
Wednesday over Louisiana. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday.

Data from NOAA Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicholas
should weaken further today as it moves farther inland, and the
storm is forecast to become a tropical depression by Wednesday
morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a Weatherflow
station near Galveston Bay, Texas, reported a 1-minute sustained
wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h). Farther
to the east, an observing station at Texas Point recently reported
a 1-minute sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph
(72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of
5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to
southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern
Alabama, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across central
to southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts,
especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across
these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across
portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with
the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...1-3 ft
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area across the upper Texas coast through this morning,
and begin along the Louisiana coast later this morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today along the upper
Texas Coast and southern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140856
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Radar and surface observations indicate that Nicholas has continued
to move slowly inland and has weakened during the past few hours,
with the strongest winds now located near southern Galveston Bay.
The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, perhaps generously.
Additional weakening is anticipated as Nicholas moves over land,
with increasing southwesterly shear also assisting this process.
No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast.

The storm is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt, and should
gradually turn northeastward and eastward during the next day or so.
Nicholas is likely to slow to a crawl over Louisiana on Wednesday
as it loses any significant steering. The new track forecast is
similar to the previous one, but a smidge faster. While the exact
track is tough to pin down due to inconsistent model forecasts,
most guidance shows a significant flash flood risk along the
Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas,
across Louisiana, southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama
through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are
expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash
and urban flooding across these areas. Minor to isolated major
river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban
areas.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Sargent to Sabine Pass. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Tropical Storm Warning
area along the Texas coast today and along the southwestern
Louisiana coast by afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 29.3N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0600Z 30.3N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1800Z 30.4N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0600Z 30.4N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140855
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 95.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Sabine Pass to
Cameron, Louisiana.

The Hurricane Warning is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from
Matagorda to Freeport.

The Storm Surge Warning from Port O'Connor to Sargent including
Matagorda Bay has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning is discontinued from south of Matagorda to
Port O'Connor.

The Hurricane Watch is discontinued from Freeport to San Luis Pass.

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued from Port O'Connor to
North of Port Aransas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Matagorda to Cameron

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 95.6 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm
should move more slowly to the northeast later today and then
eastward by Wednesday over Louisiana. Little motion is anticipated
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Nicholas should weaken further today and is
forecast to become a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. A NOAA station at Galveston Bay, Texas recently
reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) gusting to
68 mph (109 km/h).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5
to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to
southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern
Alabama, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across central to
southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts,
especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across
these regions.

Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across
portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with
the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area across Texas coasts through this morning and start
along the Louisiana coast by afternoon.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today and tonight
along the upper Texas Coast and southern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140854
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
0900 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON...LOUISIANA.

THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
MATAGORDA TO FREEPORT.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO SARGENT INCLUDING
MATAGORDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH OF MATAGORDA TO
PORT O'CONNOR.

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FROM FREEPORT TO SAN LUIS PASS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FROM PORT O'CONNOR TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SARGENT TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MATAGORDA TO CAMERON

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 95.6W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 95.6W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 95.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.3N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.4N 93.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.4N 92.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 95.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140553
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
100 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...NICHOLAS MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...
...HEAVY RAIN, HIGH WINDS AND DANGEROUS SURGE ONGOING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 95.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning from Port Aransas, Texas to Port O'Connor,
Texas including Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Freeport Texas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to Port O'Connor
* North of Freeport to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Hurricane Nicholas made landfall near 1230 AM CDT (0530 UTC) on
eastern part of the Matagorda Peninsula, about 10 miles (15 km)
west-southwest of Sargent Beach, Texas.

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicholas was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 95.7 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by
a turn toward the northeast and a slower motion by late today and
an even slower eastward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nicholas is expected to move slowly over
southeastern Texas today and tonight, and over southwestern
Louisiana on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days as
Nicholas moves over land.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). A station at San Luis Pass, Texas recently
reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) gusting to
67 mph (107 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches) based
on reconnaissance dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6
to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across the
upper Texas coastal areas into Wednesday. Life-threatening flash
flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are
possible across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast into far
southwestern Louisiana.

Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally
higher amounts near 10 inches are expected into Thursday. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

The potential for minor to isolated major river flooding exists
across the entire region especially in smaller river basins and
urban areas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX...3-5 ft
Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...1-3 ft
Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area across the central and upper Texas coasts through this morning.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area for
the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
warning area for the next few hours.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today along the upper
Texas and southwest Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140324 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nicholas Advisory Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Corrected for Tropical Storm Warning Summary

...NICHOLAS BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND STORM SURGES TO PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 95.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch south of Port O'Connor Texas, is
discontinued, and the Tropical Storm Warning south of Port
Aransas, Texas, is discontinued.

The Hurricane Watch from Port O'Connor north to Freeport, Texas has
been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Freeport Texas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to Port O'Connor
* North of Freeport to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicholas was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 95.8 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by
a turn toward the northeast and a slower motion by late Tuesday and
an even slower eastward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nicholas is expected to make landfall along the Texas
coast in a few hours, move over extreme southeastern Texas on
Tuesday and early Wednesday, and over southwestern Louisiana later
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall,
followed by weakening after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). A Weatherflow station at Matagorda Bay recently reported
a 1-minute sustained wind of 76 mph (122 km/h) gusting to 95 mph
(153 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6
to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across the
upper Texas coastal areas into Wednesday. Life-threatening flash
flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are
possible across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast into far
southwestern Louisiana.

Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally
higher amounts near 10 inches are expected into Thursday. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

The potential for minor to isolated major river flooding exists
across the entire region especially in smaller river basins and
urban areas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX...3-5 ft
Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, TX...1-3 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area across the central and upper Texas coasts through tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area for
the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
warning area for the next few hours.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through Tuesday
morning along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Blake/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140321 CCA
TCMAT4

HURRICANE NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
0300 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021

CORRECTED FOR TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUMMARY

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS...IS
DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORT
ARANSAS...TEXAS...IS DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM PORT O'CONNOR NORTH TO FREEPORT, TEXAS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
* GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT O'CONNOR TO FREEPORT TEXAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR
* NORTH OF FREEPORT TO SABINE PASS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 95.8W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 95.8W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.6N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 94.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.3N 93.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.3N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.3N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 95.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140305
TCDAT4

Hurricane Nicholas Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Very recently, a WeatherFlow Station at Matagorda Bay, Texas,
reported sustained winds of 66 kt with a gust to 83 kt. Based on
this observation, Nicholas is being upgraded to a hurricane on this
advisory, and a Hurricane Warning is issued. No additional
strengthening is anticipated until the system makes landfall, and
gradual weakening is expected during the next 2-3 days while
Nicholas moves over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.

Nicholas is moving north-northeastward, or around 020/10 kt. The
system is currently moving through a weakness in the mid-level
subtropical ridge. Within 12 to 24 hours, after Nicholas has moved
inland, the ridge is forecast to weaken and leave Nicholas in an
area of light steering currents. As a result, during the next
couple of days, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and slow to
a crawl near southwestern Louisiana. The official forecast is
slower than the previous one, but not as slow as the new model
consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas,
Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through the middle of the week.
Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in
areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along the
eastern Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Minor to isolated
major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and
urban areas.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and Tropical storm conditions are expected with
the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Texas coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 28.4N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 29.6N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0000Z 30.2N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 30.3N 93.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 30.3N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/1200Z 30.3N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0000Z 30.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140304
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nicholas Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND STORM SURGES TO PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 95.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch south of Port O'Connor Texas, is
discontinued, and the Tropical Storm Warning south of Port
Aransas, Texas, is discontinued.

The Hurricane Watch from Port O'Connor north to Freeport, Texas has
been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for..
* Port O'Connor to Freeport Texas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicholas was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 95.8 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by
a turn toward the northeast and a slower motion by late Tuesday and
an even slower eastward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nicholas is expected to make landfall along the Texas
coast in a few hours, move over extreme southeastern Texas on
Tuesday and early Wednesday, and over southwestern Louisiana later
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall,
followed by weakening after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). A Weatherflow station at Matagorda Bay recently reported
a 1-minute sustained wind of 76 mph (122 km/h) gusting to 95 mph
(153 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6
to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across the
upper Texas coastal areas into Wednesday. Life-threatening flash
flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are
possible across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast into far
southwestern Louisiana.

Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally
higher amounts near 10 inches are expected into Thursday. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

The potential for minor to isolated major river flooding exists
across the entire region especially in smaller river basins and
urban areas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX...3-5 ft
Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, TX...1-3 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area across the central and upper Texas coasts through tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area for
the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
warning area for the next few hours.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through Tuesday
morning along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Blake/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140301
TCMAT4

HURRICANE NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
0300 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS...IS
DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORT
ARANSAS...TEXAS...IS DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM PORT O'CONNOR NORTH TO FREEPORT, TEXAS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
* GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR..
* PORT O'CONNOR TO FREEPORT TEXAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO SABINE PASS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 95.8W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 95.8W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.6N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 94.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.3N 93.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.3N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.3N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 95.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 132358
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND STORM SURGES TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 96.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 96.2 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by
a turn toward the northeast by late Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Nicholas is expected to make landfall along
the central Texas coast later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during
the next few hours, and Nicholas could become a hurricane when it
reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and
Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Matagorda Bay recently
reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph
(115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through
Wednesday. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in
highly urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across portions of
the upper Texas Gulf Coast and far southwestern Louisiana.

Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally
higher amounts near 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

The potential for minor to isolated moderate river flooding exists
across the entire region, along with isolated major river flooding,
especially in the smaller river basins and urban areas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, TX...1-3 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area across the central and upper Texas coasts through tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this
evening.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight,
mainly along the upper Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 132045 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Corrected third paragraph typo

Earlier reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, along with
recent Doppler radar velocity data from Brownsville and Corpus
Christi, indicate that the inner-core wind field has still not
consolidated into a single low-level wind center. High-resolution
1-minute GOES-16 visible satellite imagery, radar data, and
reconnaissance wind data all indicate at least three small but very
tight swirls revolving counter-clockwise around a mean center. An
eye feature has tried to form on multiple occasions, only to
dissipate after less than half an hour. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft sampled the most of the northeastern
quadrant of Nicholas' larger circulation this morning and afternoon,
and measured 63-67-kt 850-mb flight-level winds, which roughly
equals 53-54-kt surface winds in that quadrant; the aircraft also
found SFMR surface winds of 50-51 kt in the same area. In addition,
Doppler velocity data from Corpus Christi and Brownsville have been
indicating average velocities of 59-60 kt between 9,000-10,000 ft
near the center, which also equates to about 53-54-kt surface winds.
Based on these wind data, the advisory intensity has been increased
to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 015/10 kt. The new NHC model guidance
has come into better agreement on Nicholas moving toward the north-
northeast until landfall occurs, now that the 12Z ECMWF model
has made a significant eastward shift closer to the previous and
current GFS and HWRF model solutions. After landfall, Nicholas is
expected to move around the northwestern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge that is oriented east-to-west across the central
and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest guidance has continued to
trend more eastward through 24 hours, followed by a more southward
or right-of-track trend thereafter. As a result, the new NHC track
forecast has followed suit, and has also been shifted a little to
the right of the previous advisory track, and lies between the
tightly packed consensus models to the west and the GFS model to the
east.

Doppler velocity data from the Houston WSR-88D radar has shown a
large swath of hurricane-force wind speeds in the northeastern
quadrant of Nicholas' circulation above 12,000 ft during the past
couple of hours, with brief appearances of average velocities of
80-100 kt at high altitudes. Thus, there is an abundance of
large-scale cyclonic vorticity available for another burst of
intense convection to tap into, which could allow Nicholas to
approach hurricane strength by landfall. This would most likely
occur tonight during the convective maximum period near landfall
where increased frictional convergence along the coast could aid in
the development of convection on the west side of the circulation.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected owing to land
interaction, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of
30 kt, and entrainment of mid-level dry air from the southern
Plains. As a result of these negative conditions, Nicholas is
forecast to weaken to tropical depression by late Tuesday and
degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas,
Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through the middle of the week.
Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in
areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in
highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate
river flooding is also expected, along with isolated major river
flooding across smaller river basins and urban areas.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm this evening, and could be near hurricane
intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coasts this
evening and tonight, with hurricane conditions possible from Port
Aransas to San Luis Pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 27.4N 96.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST
24H 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0600Z 30.4N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1800Z 30.9N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0600Z 31.1N 91.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 32.0N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 132042
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST...
...FLASH FLOODING, STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 96.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Baffin
Bay, Texas.

The Storm Surge Watch from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, Texas,
including Corpus Christi Bay has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.4 North,
longitude 96.4 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast
near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to
continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast by
late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas is
expected to make landfall along the central Texas coast later
tonight.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and an earlier reconnaissance
flight indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening
is forecast this afternoon and evening, and Nicholas could be near
hurricane strength when it reaches the central Texas coast.
Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas
moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, NOAA buoy 42019
located about 75 miles northeast of the center, reported a
sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through
Wednesday. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in
highly urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across portions of
the upper Texas Gulf Coast and far southwestern Louisiana.

Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally
higher amounts near 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

The potential for minor to isolated moderate river flooding exists
across the entire region, along with isolated major river flooding,
especially in the smaller river basins and urban areas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, TX...1-3 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area across central and upper Texas coasts through tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions
are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this evening.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight,
mainly along the upper Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 132039
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Earlier reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, along with
recent Doppler radar velocity data from Brownsville and Corpus
Christi, indicate that the inner-core wind field has still not
consolidated into a single low-level wind center. High-resolution
1-minute GOES-16 visible satellite imagery, radar data, and
reconnaissance wind data all indicate at least three small but very
tight swirls revolving counter-clockwise around a mean center. An
eye feature has tried to form on multiple occasions, only to
dissipate after less than half an hour. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft sampled the most of the northeastern
quadrant of Nicholas' larger circulation this morning and afternoon,
and measured 63-67-kt 850-mb flight-level winds, which roughly
equals 53-54-kt surface winds in that quadrant; the aircraft also
found SFMR surface winds of 50-51 kt in the same area. In addition,
Doppler velocity data from Corpus Christi and Brownsville have been
indicating average velocities of 59-60 kt between 9,000-10,000 ft
near the center, which also equates to about 53-54-kt surface winds.
Based on these wind data, the advisory intensity has been increased
to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 015/10 kt. The new NHC model guidance
has come into better agreement on Nicholas moving toward the north-
northeast until landfall occurs, now that the 12Z ECMWF model
has made a significant eastward shift closer to the previous and
current GFS and HWRF model solutions. After landfall, Nicholas is
expected to move around the northwestern periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge that is oriented east-to-west across the central
and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest guidance has continued to
trend more eastward through 24 hours, followed by a more southward
or right-of-track trend thereafter. As a result, the new NHC track
forecast has followed suit, and has also been shifted a little to
the right of the previous advisory track, and lies between the
tightly packed consensus models to the west and the GFS model to the
east.

Doppler velocity data from the Houston WSR-88D radar has shown a
large swath of hurricane-force wind speed speeds in the northeastern
quadrant of Nicholas' circulation above 12,000 ft during the past
couple of hours, with brief appearances of average velocities of
80-100 kt at high altitudes. Thus, there is an abundance of
large-scale cyclonic vorticity available for another burst of
intense convection to tap into, which could allow Nicholas to
approach hurricane strength by landfall. This would most likely
occur tonight during the convective maximum period near landfall
where increased frictional convergence along the coast could aid in
the development of convection on the west side of the circulation.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected owing to land
interaction, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of
30 kt, and entrainment of mid-level dry air from the southern
Plains. As a result of these negative conditions, Nicholas is
forecast to weaken to tropical depression by late Tuesday and
degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas,
Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through the middle of the week.
Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in
areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in
highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate
river flooding is also expected, along with isolated major river
flooding across smaller river basins and urban areas.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm this evening, and could be near hurricane
intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coasts this
evening and tonight, with hurricane conditions possible from Port
Aransas to San Luis Pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 27.4N 96.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST
24H 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0600Z 30.4N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1800Z 30.9N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0600Z 31.1N 91.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 32.0N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 132038
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN
BAY TEXAS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS, TEXAS
INCLUDING CORPUS CHRISTI BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
* GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY TO SABINE PASS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 96.4W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 96.4W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 96.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.1W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.4N 94.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.9N 92.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 31.1N 91.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.0N 90.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 96.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 131800
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
100 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS...
...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 96.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
* Corpus Christi Bay

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.9 North,
longitude 96.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph
(19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will continue to pass
just offshore of the coast of south Texas this afternoon and move
onshore along the coast of central Texas later this evening.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast
this afternoon and evening, and Nicholas could be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the northwest Gulf coast. Weakening is
anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42020
located southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, reported a sustained
wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding
impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas
Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX

Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall
of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly
urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential
for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions
will spread northward within the warning area through tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this
afternoon or this evening.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and
tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting
portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 131436
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Doppler radar data from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, along
with reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, indicate that
Nicholas' inner-core structure has undergone some radical changes
since the previous advisory. The earlier near-eyewall pattern
dissipated a few hours ago, and has been replaced with what appears
to be an ongoing reformation of a new center abut 90 nmi
north-northeast of the old center. The aircraft recently found a
pressure of 1000 to 1002 mb with the dissipating original center,
while Doppler radar velocity data show a pronounced mid- to
upper-level circulation forming farther north as previously
mentioned. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is going
to be concentrating its reconnoiter mission in Nicholas'
northeastern quadrant to see if reformation of the low-level center
is occurring beneath the mid-level circulation noted in radar data.
The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on recent aircraft 850-mb
flight-level winds of 59 kt, which equates to about 47 kt equivalent
surface winds.

The initial motion is an uncertain 005/10 kt due to the erosion and
ongoing reformation of the center. Despite the recent inner-core
erosion, the latest NHC model guidance remains in fairly good
agreement on Nicholas moving northward through a weakness in the
subtropical ridge. The GFS model has been performing exceptionally
well with predicting the recent erosion and more northward
reformation of the Nicholas' center. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory
track, and lies along the eastern edge of the track consensus model
envelope, which is to the left of the GFS track prediction.

Although the inner-core convective pattern has been disrupted,
recent trends in the radar data suggest that a new center should
reform farther northeast into the convective cloud shield. The
latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear analyses indicate that
westerly shear of near 20 kt is allegedly affecting Nicholas.
However, water vapor satellite imagery suggests that the upper-level
shear vector is actually from a south-southwesterly direction, which
is more along than across the cyclone's forward motion, thus
reducing the magnitude and negative effects of the vertical wind
shear. Therefore, strengthening is still expected until landfall
as Nicholas continues to move over slightly warmer Gulf waters. It
is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane just before
landfall, and that's the reason for the northeastward extension of
the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should rapidly weaken after
landfall due to increased frictional effects, strong southwesterly
shear, and entrainment of mid-level dry air, resulting in
degeneration into a tropical depression by late Tuesday and a
remnant low on Wednesday. Otherwise, no significant changes were
made to the previous advisory intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts
are possible, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized
metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is
also expected.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm by this evening, and could be near hurricane
intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon,
with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to San Luis
Pass by late afternoon through tonight.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of south Texas into the afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 26.4N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 27.5N 96.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 29.1N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 131435
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS...
...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from San Luis Pass to
Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northeastward to San Luis
Pass, Texas.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Sabine
Pass.

The Storm Surge Watch from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin
Bay has been discontinued.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
* Corpus Christi Bay

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 96.8
West. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore of the
coast of south Texas this morning and move onshore along the coast
of south or central Texas late this afternoon or this evening.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the
northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane. Weakening is anticipated on
Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus
Christi, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph
(65 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft is
1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding
impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas
Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX

Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall
of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly
urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential
for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions
will spread northward within the warning area through tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this
afternoon or this evening.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and
tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting
portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 131435
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
1500 UTC MON SEP 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO
SABINE PASS...INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN LUIS
PASS TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO SABINE
PASS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN
BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
* GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA
BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO SABINE PASS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
* SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA
* CORPUS CHRISTI BAY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 96.8W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 96.8W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 96.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 96.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.1N 96.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 96.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 131152
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 96.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Freeport Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including
Galveston Bay
* Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 96.9 West. Nicholas has
been drifting toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The
storm should move northward later today at a faster forward speed,
and turn north-northeastward on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of
northeastern Mexico and south Texas this morning, and move onshore
along the coast of south or central Texas late this afternoon or
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the
northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane. Weakening is anticipated on
Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station on South Padre Island,
Texas, recently reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the
middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest
Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may
produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially
in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the
potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas this morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or early
Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight
across the Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting
portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 130850
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Radar data from Brownsville shows that the center of Nicholas is on
the southwestern side of a large area of deep convection over the
western Gulf of Mexico. While southwesterly shear continues to
affect the storm, the radar presentation has recently improved,
with what could be the start of a partial eyewall forming in the
northern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on
earlier aircraft flight-level winds of 59 kt, believable SFMR
values up to 50 kt, along with radar winds at 5000 ft near 60 kt.

The storm is moving north-northwestward at about 12 kt. Nicholas is
forecast to turn northward soon into a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. The track prediction is only nudged slightly westward from
the previous one through landfall, consistent with recent model
guidance. Thereafter, there isn't good agreement among the models
on how quickly the tropical cyclone will move northeastward out of
Texas. Generally the models are faster this cycle, which seems
believable given the large northward re-formation earlier likely
exposing Nicholas to stronger mid-latitude flow. Thus the new NHC
forecast is trended faster as well, but remains behind the model
consensus. Obviously the forward speed is important to the heavy
rainfall forecast, and this trend will be one to watch.

Nicholas should continue to strengthen up until landfall due
primarily to the very warm Gulf waters and the recent inner-core
improvements. Moderate southwesterly shear and some dry air are the
main inhibiting factors and will hopefully keep the strengthening in
check. However, it is possible that Nicholas could become a
hurricane before landfall, and that's the reason for the hurricane
watch area. Nicholas should weaken after landfall, diminish into a
tropical depression within a couple of days, and degenerate into a
remnant low in about 3 days. No significant changes were made to
the previous NHC wind speed prediction.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts
are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash
and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan
areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm today, and could be near hurricane
intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning by this
afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to
Freeport this afternoon and tonight.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning
during the next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 25.5N 96.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 27.3N 96.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 29.2N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1800Z 30.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0600Z 31.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 15/1800Z 32.1N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0600Z 32.5N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130849
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS FORECAST TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND GUSTY WINDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 96.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Freeport Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including
Galveston Bay
* Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 96.6 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). The storm
should turn northward later today and north-northeastward on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass
near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south
Texas this morning, and move onshore along the coast of south or
central Texas Monday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach
the northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane. Weakening is anticipated
on Tuesday and Wednesday over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the
middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest
Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may
produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially
in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the
potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas this morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or early
Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight
across the Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting
portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 130847
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING
GALVESTON BAY
* BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 96.6W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 96.6W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 96.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.3N 96.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.2N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.6N 95.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.1N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N 91.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 96.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130545
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT NICHOLAS IS CONTINUING
TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Freeport Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including
Galveston Bay
* Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 96.5 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The storm
should turn northward later today and north-northeastward on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass
near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south
Texas this morning, and move onshore along the coast of south or
central Texas Monday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast until Nicholas
reaches the northwest Gulf coast later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure has fallen to 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on reconnaissance data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the
middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding,
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally,
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.

Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas,
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected through today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas this morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or early
Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight
across the middle and lower Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting
portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 130431
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Special Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

The center of Nicholas has re-formed about 150 n mi to the
north-northwest of the previous feature we were tracking, as
confirmed by aircraft reconnaissance and Brownsville radar, and
this large change necessitates a special advisory. The initial wind
speed is set to 45 kt, a blend of the reduced 56-kt flight level
winds and 45-50 kt SFMR values recently found by the plane.

Because of the re-formation, the track forecast has been accelerated
to indicate a landfall about 12 hours sooner than the last advisory.
The intensity forecast is about 5 kt stronger in the short term,
but actually ends up near the same intensity at landfall as the
last advisory because of less time over water. The track forecast
is blended with the previous one after landfall, and the intensity
forecast is lower after landfall because it is farther inland.

No changes to the watches or warnings are required at this time.


Key Messages:

1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the
Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week.
Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in
areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly
urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river
flooding is also expected.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm on Monday, and could be near hurricane
intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast track and
remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday,
with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to
Freeport late Monday and Monday night.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning
Monday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0430Z 24.8N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 26.0N 96.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 28.0N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 29.4N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 15/1200Z 30.8N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0000Z 31.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130430
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Special Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS RE-FORMS TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1130 PM CDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 96.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Freeport Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including
Galveston Bay
* Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1130 PM CDT (0430 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 96.3 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The
storm should turn northward on Monday and north-northeastward on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass
near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South
Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or
central Texas coast Monday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast until
Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast late on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through
the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding,
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally,
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.

Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas,
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into
Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night
or early Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday
night across the middle and lower Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 130429
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING
GALVESTON BAY
* BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 96.3W AT 13/0430Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 96.3W AT 13/0430Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 96.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 96.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.4N 96.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.8N 94.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.3N 94.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 96.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 130359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 13.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 27.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2021 0 15.7N 27.0W 1013 16
1200UTC 13.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 101.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2021 0 15.2N 101.1W 1009 29
1200UTC 13.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 95.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2021 0 23.1N 95.8W 1009 29
1200UTC 13.09.2021 12 25.5N 97.0W 1007 31
0000UTC 14.09.2021 24 27.4N 97.0W 1005 27
1200UTC 14.09.2021 36 28.9N 96.8W 1006 27
0000UTC 15.09.2021 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.7N 21.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2021 48 11.7N 21.9W 1011 29
1200UTC 15.09.2021 60 12.3N 25.6W 1011 28
0000UTC 16.09.2021 72 13.1N 29.3W 1013 28
1200UTC 16.09.2021 84 13.9N 33.7W 1014 27
0000UTC 17.09.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130359

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 130359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 27.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2021 15.7N 27.0W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 101.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2021 15.2N 101.1W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 95.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2021 23.1N 95.8W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2021 25.5N 97.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2021 27.4N 97.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2021 28.9N 96.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.7N 21.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2021 11.7N 21.9W WEAK
12UTC 15.09.2021 12.3N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2021 13.1N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2021 13.9N 33.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130359

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 130259
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Nicholas is not yet a well-organized tropical cyclone, with little
evidence of convective banding features on satellite imagery.
Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the center is still not very well-defined, and appears to have
reformed again, this time farther south. Data from the aircraft
indicate that the central pressure has not changed much since
earlier today, and the maximum winds remain near 35 kt. This is
above the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Nicholas will be traversing very warm waters during the next day or
so, and within a moist, unstable atmosphere. These factors would
favor strengthening. However, moderate southwesterly shear
associated with an upper-level trough over northern Mexico could be
an inhibiting factor for strengthening. In spite of the shear,
the GFS model forecasts the system to strengthen while it nears
the Texas coast. The official intensity forecast is at the upper
end of the current model guidance. Given the uncertainties in the
future strength of Nicholas, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a
portion of the Texas coast.

The current location of Nicholas is quite uncertain since the
aircraft-reported center position is within a broad area of light
winds and is well south of most of the deep convection. Although
the fixes show little motion this evening, based on the model
predictions, it appears likely that the center will shift or re-form
significantly northward as early as Monday morning. This is at
least partially accounted for in the latest NHC track forecast, but
some northward adjustments are possible over night. The storm
is expected to move toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge
during the next 36 hours or so. The track guidance and the model
consensus has shifted eastward somewhat since the earlier advisory
package. This has necessitated an eastward shift in the official
track, and a northeastward extension of the watches and warnings.


Key Messages:

1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the
Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week.
Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in
areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly
urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river
flooding is also expected.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm late Monday and early Tuesday, and could be
near hurricane intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast
track and remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday
afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to
Freeport late Monday and Monday night.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning
Monday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 22.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 24.7N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 27.0N 96.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 28.6N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 15/0000Z 29.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 15/1200Z 30.4N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0000Z 31.0N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130259
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been extended eastward to Freeport Texas.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to High
Island Texas.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Sabine Pass.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward to Rutherford
Beach Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Freeport Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including
Galveston Bay
* Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas has
been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over the
past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12 mph
(19 km/h) is expected to resume by early Monday. A northward or
north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near
or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas
on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central
Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf
coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through
the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding,
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally,
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.

Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas,
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into
Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night
or early Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday
night across the middle and lower Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 130258
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO FREEPORT TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO HIGH
ISLAND TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO SABINE PASS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO RUTHERFORD
BEACH LOUISIANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
* SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING
GALVESTON BAY
* BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 95.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.7N 96.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 96.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 96.1W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.9N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.4N 94.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.0N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 95.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130009 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Corrected Tropical Storm Watch area

...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME...
...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Freeport to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas
has been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over
the past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12
mph (19 km/h) is expected to resume later tonight and early monday.
A northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late
Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern
Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast
of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the
northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through
the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding,
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally,
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.

Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into
Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night
or early Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday
night across the middle and lower Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 122358
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME...
...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas
has been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over
the past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12
mph (19 km/h) is expected to resume later tonight and early monday.
A northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late
Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern
Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast
of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the
northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through
the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding,
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally,
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.

Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into
Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night
or early Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday
night across the middle and lower Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 122101
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Visible satellite imagery, scatterometer wind data, and earlier
reconnaissance aircraft observations indicate that the circulation
of Nicholas is elongated from northwest to southeast. In fact,
visible satellite imagery and the aircraft data has shown that
there have been several low-level swirls rotating about a mean
center. This is not surprising since the tropical cyclone is
still in its formative stage. The Air Force plane did not find
winds any stronger than they did this morning and the ASCAT data
revealed peaks winds of around 30 kt. Given the typical
undersampling of the scatterometer instrument, the earlier aircraft
data, and peak one-minute wind observations of 31 kt from NOAA buoy
42055 earlier today, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.

Nicholas will be moving over the warm waters of the western Gulf of
Mexico during the next day or so, and this combined with a moist,
unstable atmosphere favors strengthening. The primarily inhibiting
factor appears to be moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind
shear caused by an upper-level trough over northern Mexico. The
trough is forecast to move westward and weaken during the next day
or so, which could allow for a more favorable upper-level wind
pattern later tonight and Monday. The NHC intensity forecast again
calls for strengthening while the system moves toward the northwest
Gulf coast, but the main uncertainty regarding the intensity
forecast is how much time the cyclone will spend over the Gulf
waters. The GFS and HWRF models, which depict a track farther
east, show significantly more strengthening than the UKMET and ECMWF
models which show a weaker tropical cyclone moving inland over
northeastern Mexico or southern Texas much sooner. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but indicates a faster
rate of strengthening during the next 12-24 hours. Although not
explicitly shown in the intensity forecast, Nicholas could approach
hurricane strength when it nears the northwest Gulf coast,
especially if it moves to the right of the NHC forecast track and
spends more time over water. Due to this uncertainty a Hurricane
Watch has been issued a for a portion of the Texas coast. The NHC
forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS and HFIP corrected
consensus model, but is not as high as the latest HWRF.

The center of Nicholas appears to have re-formed farther north since
this morning and the initial motion estimate is again a somewhat
uncertain 340/12 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed
from this morning. Nicholas should move north-northwestward to
northward during the next day or so around the western portion of a
mid-level ridge that is located near the southeast U.S. coast. The
latest runs of the various dynamical models have shown typical
variability, but the overall guidance envelope has not changed too
much through the first 36 hours. The GFS has been the most
consistent model and its 12Z run was fairly close to the previous
NHC track forecast. Therefore, the NHC track leans along the right
side of the guidance envelope between the HWRF and GFS, which
are a little to the right of the consensus aids. Due to the acute
angle of approach of Nicholas to the coast, users are reminded to
not focus on the exact forecast track as small changes in the
heading of the cyclone could result in differences in both the
location and timing of landfall. Regardless of where Nicholas makes
landfall, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts are likely over a
large portion of northeastern Mexico and Texas coastal areas.
After landfall, a slower north-northeastward motion is forecast, and
by 72 hours the cyclone is forecast to be located between a couple
of mid-level ridges, which will likely result in weaker
steering currents and an even slower northeastward motion. By day
5, the global model guidance suggest that the low-level circulation
will become an open trough so dissipation is indicated at that time.

Key Messages:

1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the
Texas and Louisiana coasts today through the middle of the week.
Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in
areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly
urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river
flooding is also expected.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm late Monday and early Tuesday, and could be
near hurricane intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast
track and remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday
afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to
Sargent late Monday and Monday night.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning
Monday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 22.8N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 24.4N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 26.7N 96.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 30.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 15/0600Z 31.2N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1800Z 31.7N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/1800Z 31.9N 94.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 122059
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST...
...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Freeport,
Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from
Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio
Bay, and Matagorda Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port
Aransas to Sargent.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected through tonight. A slower northward or
north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near
or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas
on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central
Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf
coast Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas today through
the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding,
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally,
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river
flooding.

Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night
or early Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday
night across the middle and lower Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting
portions of the northwest Gulf coast later tonight and continue
into Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 122059
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO FREEPORT...
TEXAS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS INCLUDING ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO
BAY, AND MATAGORDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM PORT
ARANSAS TO SARGENT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO BAY, AND MATAGORDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO FREEPORT TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE,
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF
AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 95.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 95.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 95.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.4N 96.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.7N 96.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.4N 96.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.2N 95.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.9N 94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 95.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 121745
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
100 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 95.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas
was near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Satellite
and reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the center may be
re-forming farther north. As a result, some erratic motion is
possible this afternoon, but a general north-northwestward motion
near 15 mph (24 km/h) should resume later today. This motion
should then continue through tonight. A slower northward or
north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near
or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas
late Monday, and approach the south or central Texas coast Monday
night or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches the
northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, across
portions of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana today through the
middle of the week. This rainfall may produce areas of flash, urban,
and isolated river flooding.

Over the eastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, TX...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay,
Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas by Monday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday night or early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 121502
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight
and very recently become better organized with a loose band of
convection around the northeastern portion of the circulation. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been
investigating the system has found 44-kt flight-level winds and
SFMR winds that support a 35-kt initial intensity. Based on the
recent increase in organization and the 35-kt initial intensity,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Nicholas, the
fourteenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The storm is located within an environment of moderate
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, over warm waters, and in a
moist and unstable atmosphere. These conditions should allow gradual
strengthening over the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast follows suit and calls for gradual strengthening until
the system reaches the coast of Texas. The official wind speed
forecast is near the higher end of the guidance in best agreement
with the SHIPS statistical guidance, the HFIP corrected consensus,
and the HWRF. In this case, the intensity forecast is highly
dependent on eventual track of the system. A track to the east of
the NHC forecast could result in a lower wind shear environment
and slightly more time over water for the system to strengthen.
Conversely a track to the west of the forecast track would result
in the system interacting with land much sooner.

Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion
estimate is a somewhat uncertain 330/11 kt. A north-northwestward
motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is
sliding east near the coast of the Carolinas, should continue to
steer Nicholas in that direction for the next 24 to 48 hours.
After that time, steering currents weaken and the cyclone is
expected to move slowly north-northeastward between a couple of
mid-level ridges located to the east and west of Nicholas. The
track guidance generally agrees with this overall scenario but
there is some cross-track spread with the UKMET along the left side
of the guidance envelope taking the storm into northeastern Mexico,
while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON are along the right side. The NHC
track is near the various consensus models and both the EC and GFS
ensemble means.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas
beginning on Monday. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle
Texas coast as a strong tropical storm on Tuesday, and tropical
storm conditions are possible along portions of the middle and upper
Texas coasts late Monday night and Tuesday.

2. There is the possibility of life-threatening storm surge along
the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.

3. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the
Texas and Louisiana coasts today through the middle of the week.
Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in
areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 20.5N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 21.9N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 24.1N 96.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 26.4N 96.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 28.2N 96.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 29.4N 95.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1200Z 30.3N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/1200Z 31.0N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 121459
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 94.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from
the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Barra el Mezquital northward to the U.S./Mexico border.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from the
Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from
north of Port Aransas to High Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 20.5 North,
longitude 94.8 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest
near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A slower northward or north-northeastward
motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the
the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas late Monday, and
approach the south or central Texas coast Monday night or early
Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches
the northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, across
portions of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana today through the
middle of the week. This rainfall may produce areas of flash, urban,
and isolated river flooding.

Over the eastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, TX...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay,
Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas by Monday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday night or early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 121457
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
BARRA EL MEZQUITAL NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM
THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.9N 95.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.1N 96.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.4N 96.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.2N 96.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.4N 95.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.3N 95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N 94.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 94.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>