Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ODETTE-21
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 182034
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021
500 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021

Odette appears to have completed extratropical transition, perhaps
a little earlier than the global models want to admit. The cyclone
has developed a frontal structure similar to that of a bent back
occlusion, with cold-air stratocumulus clouds advecting eastward
to the south of the center behind the trailing cold front. In
addition, the remaining deep convection is closer to the system's
triple point than multiple-swirled center of circulation. The
initial intensity is highly uncertain since all three ASCAT
instruments completely missed the area where the strongest winds
were likely to have been occurring, and it is held at 40 kt based on
continuity.

The post-tropical cyclone has turned to the east-northeast and is
moving a little faster--now with a motion of 060/16 kt. Additional
acceleration is expected during the next 24 hours while Odette is
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After 24 hours, Odette is
expected to detach from the prevailing flow, which will cause the
cyclone to slow down and meander southeast of Newfoundland by days
3 through 5. The track guidance has shifted slightly southward on
this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend and continues
to hedge toward a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Now that Odette is extratropical, global models indicate that
baroclinic forcing should support strengthening and expanding of
the gale-force wind field during the next couple of days. During
this evolution, the strongest winds will also migrate to the
northern and western side of the circulation. The frontal low is
expected to occlude in about 3 days, coincident with the beginning
of its meandering motion, and that occlusion process should cause a
slow weakening of the winds through the end of the forecast period.
One caveat is that some of the models have been hinting that the
occluded low could redevelop deep convection near the center and
transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone, but there has not
been enough consistency among the guidance to explicitly make that
forecast. If the system's forecast track continues to shift
southward toward warmer waters on days 3 through 5, that scenario
could become a stronger possibility.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette is forecast to affect portions
of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and
Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane
Centre for additional information on potential impacts in
Newfoundland.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Odette. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 39.1N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 19/1800Z 41.9N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/0600Z 42.3N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/1800Z 41.8N 51.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/0600Z 40.7N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1800Z 40.0N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1800Z 41.4N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1800Z 43.2N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021
500 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021

...ODETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 65.1W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Please refer to products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre
for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical
cyclone.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette
was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 65.1 West. Odette
is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Sunday. A turn toward the east and east-southeast with a
decrease in forward speed is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Odette will pass well south of
Atlantic Canada tonight through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the
United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread
northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada
coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 182034
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021
2100 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 65.1W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 180SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 65.1W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 41.9N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 42.3N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.8N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...270NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.7N 48.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...300NE 120SE 180SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 40.0N 47.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...270NE 60SE 150SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 41.4N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 43.2N 48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 65.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181449
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021

Strong shear of about 30 kt from the west-southwest continues to
push all of Odette's deep convection well to the east of the
surface center. The center itself lacks some definition, with
multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common point. Odette
is well on its way through the extratropical transition process,
with cold air advection noted on the west side of the circulation,
and a band of overcast clouds on the north side of the developing
warm front. We're awaiting some new ASCAT data, which should
arrive soon, and for now the initial intensity remains 40 kt based
on continuity.

Odette is being picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies, and it is
moving a little faster toward the northeast, or 055/15 kt. The
cyclone should turn to the east-northeast and accelerate further
later today, but then a significant slow down is expected on
days 3 through 5 when Odette detaches from the mid-latitude flow
and meanders to the southeast of Newfoundland. In contrast to
yesterday, the global models are in much better agreement on this
scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast has been hedged in the
direction of the GFEX consensus aids, since the GFS and ECMWF
global models should have a good handle on the behavior of an
extratropical cyclone.

The global models vary slightly on when extratropical
transition will be complete, but the GFS- and ECMWF-based
SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it should happen by this evening
or tonight. Baroclinic forcing will likely be the main contributor
to Odette's expected strengthening over the next few days, and the
intensity models, including the GFS and ECMWF global models, have
been consistent in showing the peak winds reaching about 55 kt in
36-48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to occlude and
lose its upper-air support in about 48 hours, which should lead to
gradual weakening through the end of the 5-day forecast period.

Odette's wind field is expected to expand significantly during the
next few days while the system becomes a strong post-tropical
cyclone. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to affect portions
of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and
Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane
Centre for additional information on potential impacts in
Newfoundland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 38.5N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 40.0N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 41.8N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/0000Z 42.7N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/1200Z 42.8N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/0000Z 42.2N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1200Z 41.5N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1200Z 41.3N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1200Z 42.7N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181448
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021
1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 67.3W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 67.3W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 67.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.0N 64.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.8N 59.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 42.7N 56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 42.8N 53.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.2N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE 180SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.5N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...270NE 0SE 180SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 41.3N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.7N 48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 67.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181448
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021

...ODETTE FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 67.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Please refer to products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre
for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical
cyclone.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was
located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 67.3 West. Odette is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward
the east-northeast at a faster forward speed is expected by this
evening. Odette should then slow down and turn toward the east and
southeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Odette will pass south of Atlantic Canada Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Odette is
expected to become a strong post-tropical low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the
United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread
northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada
coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180836
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021
500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021

Odette does not look very much like a tropical cyclone. All of the
deep convection continues to be displaced well to the east of the
poorly-defined center due to strong westerly shear. The circulation
is elongated from southwest to northeast and contains multiple
low-cloud swirls. The current intensity of the system is estimated
to be near 40 kt based on earlier scatterometer observations, and
these stronger winds are occurring in the convection over the
eastern semicircle of the cyclone, well removed from the center.

Since the center is not so easy to locate, the motion is rather
uncertain. However the system appears to be accelerating and the
initial motion estimate is roughly 050/13 kt. Odette is embedded
within the flow on the south side of a mid-latitude shortwave
trough. This steering pattern should carry the system northeastward
to east-northeastward for the next couple of days. Afterwards, the
trough is predicted by the global models to cut off to the south of
eastern Newfoundland. As a result, Odette is likely to turn a
little south of east and decelerate in 3-4 days. By the end of the
forecast period, the cyclone is expected to begin moving
northeastward on the east side of the cutoff low. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous one but a little farther
south around days 4 and 5. This is in good agreement with the
latest corrected model consensus.

The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over
Odette will get even stronger over the next few days. As the
system will soon begin to move over the cooler waters to the north
of the Gulf Stream, its primary energy source should come from
baroclinicity. In about 24 hours, the dynamical guidance shows
significant thermal advection around the cyclone, signifying its
extratropical transition. The global models show the post-tropical
cyclone deepening through 48 hours and the official forecast calls
for some strengthening up to that time. Later in the period, as
the baroclinic energy source appears to wane, gradual weakening is
expected.

As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this
weekend and into Monday, the wind field is forecast to expand
significantly. Odette is expected to affect portions of
Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday
as a strong post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products
from Environment Canada for additional information on potential
impacts in Newfoundland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 38.0N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 39.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 40.8N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/1800Z 42.4N 58.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/0600Z 43.3N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/1800Z 43.5N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0600Z 43.0N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0600Z 42.5N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0600Z 43.0N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180836
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021
500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021

...ODETTE FORECAST TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 69.3W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's
potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 69.3 West. Odette is
moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will
pass south of Atlantic Canada on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Odette is
expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of
the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread
northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada
coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180835
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021
0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR ODETTE'S
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 69.3W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 69.3W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 70.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.2N 66.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.8N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.4N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 43.3N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 43.5N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 210SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.0N 48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 42.5N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 43.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 69.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180233
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

Satellite images indicate that west-southwesterly shear is taking a
toll on Odette. Deep convection has been separating from the
low-level circulation, and the closest area of thunderstorms is now
more than 100 miles east of the center. The circulation is rather
broad, but there is a clear center a couple of hundred miles off the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for
this advisory. A very recent ASCAT pass showed some stronger winds
in the thunderstorms more than a couple of hundred miles east of the
low-level center, but its not clear if those winds are reliable and
representative of the storm's true intensity. Hopefully more
scatterometer data with be available soon to better assess Odette's
strength.

Although it appears that Odette has been meandering lately, a
12-hour average yields a northeastward motion at about 9 kt. The
storm is expected to move faster northeastward or east-northeastward
off the northeast U.S. and Atlantic Canada coasts this weekend as it
moves in the mid-latitude flow. After that time, the models show a
significant slow down as the cyclone cuts off from the progressive
flow to the south or southeast of Newfoundland. Although there is
quite a bit of spread in the models from days 3-5, almost all of the
guidance shows the storm stalling by the end of the forecast period.
The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous
one to come into better agreement with the latest models. This
forecast still lies to the north of the consensus aids, however.

Odette is already beginning the process of transitioning to an
extratropical cyclone, and it will likely complete the transition by
Saturday night when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream
Current and merging with an approaching trough. The cyclone is
likely to reach its peak intensity as an extratropical storm in
48-60 hours when the baroclinic dynamics are most favorable.
Gradual weakening seems likely beyond that time. The NHC intensity
forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the
majority of the guidance.

As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this
weekend, the wind field is forecast to expand significantly. Odette
is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and
heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone.
Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional
information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 36.4N 71.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 37.8N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 39.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/1200Z 41.0N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/0000Z 42.3N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/1200Z 43.4N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0000Z 43.8N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 44.3N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z 44.8N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180233
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...ODETTE POORLY ORGANIZED OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF
ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 71.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's
potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was
located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 71.2 West. Odette is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster
east-northeast to northeast motion is expected this weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S.
Mid-Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of
the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread
northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada
coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180232
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021
0300 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR ODETTE'S
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 71.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 71.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 71.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.8N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 39.4N 65.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.0N 61.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 42.3N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 43.4N 53.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 210SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 43.8N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...390NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 44.3N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 44.8N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 71.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 172037
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

The circulation associated with the area of low pressure off the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has become better defined today, with a
new center having developed near a persistent cluster of deep
convection. This system has some non-tropical characteristics, with
a developing frontal boundary draped around the northern and western
side of the circulation. Although the convection is being sheared
off to the northeast of the center, the structure still resembles
that of a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago
showed that maximum winds were 30-35 kt to the north of the center,
thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Odette with
35-kt winds.

With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is
uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt.
Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and
central Canada. The approach of this trough should cause Odette to
accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the
next few days. After about day 3, there is significant divergence
among the models. The GFS ejects the system northeastward and
stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland. The ECMWF,
UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and
have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5. For now,
the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on
those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and
HCCA consensus aids.

Odette's transition to an extratropical cyclone is probably already
underway. The storm is also centered over the Gulf Stream, where
water temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, so in the short
term it is likely that a combination of baroclinic and convective
forcing will cause some intensification, despite deep-layer shear
strengthening to near 30 kt. The global models suggest that Odette
should become fully extratropical by 36 hours, and the intensity
models indicate that the post-tropical low should peak in
intensity in 48-60 hours. The low is then likely to occlude by day
3, a process which typically leads to gradual weakening, which is
indicated in the official forecast.

Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong
winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a
post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment
Canada for additional information on potential impacts in
Newfoundland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 36.7N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 38.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 39.9N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 41.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/1800Z 43.6N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/0600Z 45.0N 52.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z 47.5N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 172036
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021
2100 UTC FRI SEP 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 71.8W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 71.8W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 71.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 38.3N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.9N 65.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 41.6N 61.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.6N 57.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 45.0N 52.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 210SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...390NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 47.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 71.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 172036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORMS OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF
ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 71.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's
potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was
located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 71.8 West. Odette is
moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue into tonight. A turn toward
the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to
begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S.
Mid-Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of
the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread
northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada
coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>