Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for NAMTHEUN-21 Off-shore from 10 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC to 17 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

17/10 00:51 WTPQ52RJTD170000

17/10 00:49 WTPQ22RJTD170000

16/10 21:43 WTPQ52RJTD162100

16/10 21:41 WTPQ22RJTD162100

16/10 18:43 WTPQ52RJTD161800

16/10 18:43 WTPQ22RJTD161800

16/10 18:43 WTJP23RJTD161800

16/10 15:43 WTPQ52RJTD161500

16/10 15:41 WTPQ22RJTD161500

16/10 13:19 WTPQ32RJTD161200

16/10 12:43 WTPQ52RJTD161200

16/10 12:41 WTPQ22RJTD161200

16/10 12:41 WTJP23RJTD161200

16/10 09:43 WTPQ52RJTD160900

16/10 09:43 WTJP33RJTD160900

16/10 09:41 WTPQ22RJTD160900

16/10 07:33 WTPQ32RJTD160600

16/10 06:47 WTPQ52RJTD160600

16/10 06:47 WTPQ22RJTD160600

16/10 06:47 WTJP23RJTD160600

16/10 03:43 WTPQ52RJTD160300

16/10 03:43 WTPQ22RJTD160300

16/10 01:41 WTPQ32RJTD160000

16/10 00:47 WTPQ52RJTD160000

16/10 00:47 WTPQ22RJTD160000

16/10 00:47 WTJP23RJTD160000

15/10 21:47 WTPQ52RJTD152100

15/10 21:45 WTPQ22RJTD152100

15/10 19:21 WTPQ32RJTD151800

15/10 18:43 WTPQ52RJTD151800

15/10 18:43 WTPQ22RJTD151800

15/10 18:43 WTJP23RJTD151800

15/10 15:47 WTPQ52RJTD151500

15/10 15:47 WTPQ22RJTD151500

15/10 13:11 WTPQ32RJTD151200

15/10 12:43 WTPQ52RJTD151200

15/10 12:43 WTPQ22RJTD151200

15/10 12:43 WTJP23RJTD151200

15/10 09:43 WTPQ52RJTD150900

15/10 09:41 WTPQ22RJTD150900

15/10 07:23 WTPQ32RJTD150600

15/10 06:43 WTPQ52RJTD150600

15/10 06:43 WTPQ22RJTD150600

15/10 06:43 WTJP23RJTD150600

15/10 03:43 WTPQ52RJTD150300

15/10 03:41 WTPQ22RJTD150300

15/10 01:33 WTPQ32RJTD150000

15/10 00:43 WTPQ52RJTD150000

15/10 00:41 WTPQ22RJTD150000

15/10 00:41 WTJP23RJTD150000

14/10 21:43 WTPQ52RJTD142100

14/10 21:43 WTJP33RJTD142100

14/10 21:41 WTPQ22RJTD142100

14/10 19:15 WTPQ32RJTD141800

14/10 18:45 WTPQ52RJTD141800

14/10 18:43 WTPQ22RJTD141800

14/10 18:43 WTJP23RJTD141800

14/10 15:47 WTPQ52RJTD141500

14/10 15:47 WTPQ22RJTD141500

14/10 15:47 WTJP33RJTD141500

14/10 13:57 WTPQ32RJTD141200

14/10 13:11 WTPQ52RJTD141200

14/10 13:11 WTPQ22RJTD141200

14/10 13:11 WTJP23RJTD141200

14/10 10:03 WTPQ52RJTD140900

14/10 10:03 WTJP33RJTD140900

14/10 10:01 WTPQ22RJTD140900

14/10 07:47 WTPQ32RJTD140600

14/10 07:05 WTPQ52RJTD140600

14/10 07:03 WTPQ22RJTD140600

14/10 07:03 WTJP23RJTD140600

14/10 04:05 WTPQ52RJTD140300

14/10 04:05 WTPQ22RJTD140300

14/10 01:53 WTPQ32RJTD140000

14/10 01:03 WTPQ52RJTD140000

14/10 01:03 WTPQ22RJTD140000

14/10 01:03 WTJP23RJTD140000

13/10 22:05 WTPQ52RJTD132100

13/10 22:05 WTPQ22RJTD132100

13/10 20:01 WTPQ32RJTD131800

13/10 19:05 WTPQ52RJTD131800

13/10 19:03 WTPQ22RJTD131800

13/10 19:03 WTJP23RJTD131800

13/10 16:09 WTPQ52RJTD131500

13/10 16:09 WTPQ22RJTD131500

13/10 14:09 WTPQ32RJTD131200

13/10 13:11 WTPQ52RJTD131200

13/10 13:11 WTPQ22RJTD131200

13/10 13:11 WTJP23RJTD131200

13/10 10:03 WTPQ52RJTD130900

13/10 10:01 WTPQ22RJTD130900

13/10 07:43 WTPQ32RJTD130600

13/10 07:09 WTPQ52RJTD130600

13/10 07:09 WTPQ22RJTD130600

13/10 07:09 WTJP23RJTD130600

13/10 04:03 WTPQ52RJTD130300

13/10 04:03 WTPQ22RJTD130300

13/10 01:59 WTPQ32RJTD130000

13/10 01:03 WTPQ52RJTD130000

13/10 01:03 WTPQ22RJTD130000

13/10 01:03 WTJP23RJTD130000

12/10 22:03 WTPQ52RJTD122100

12/10 22:01 WTPQ22RJTD122100

12/10 20:17 WTPQ32RJTD121800

12/10 19:03 WTPQ52RJTD121800

12/10 19:01 WTPQ22RJTD121800

12/10 19:01 WTJP23RJTD121800

12/10 16:13 WTPQ52RJTD121500

12/10 16:13 WTPQ22RJTD121500

12/10 14:11 WTPQ32RJTD121200

12/10 13:03 WTPQ52RJTD121200

12/10 13:01 WTPQ22RJTD121200

12/10 13:01 WTJP23RJTD121200

12/10 10:03 WTPQ52RJTD120900

12/10 10:03 WTPQ22RJTD120900

12/10 07:51 WTPQ32RJTD120600

12/10 07:03 WTPQ52RJTD120600

12/10 07:03 WTPQ22RJTD120600

12/10 07:03 WTJP23RJTD120600

12/10 04:05 WTPQ52RJTD120300

12/10 04:03 WTPQ22RJTD120300

12/10 02:07 WTPQ32RJTD120000

12/10 01:03 WTPQ52RJTD120000

12/10 01:03 WTPQ22RJTD120000

12/10 01:03 WTJP23RJTD120000

11/10 22:03 WTPQ52RJTD112100

11/10 22:03 WTPQ22RJTD112100

11/10 19:59 WTPQ32RJTD111800

11/10 19:09 WTPQ52RJTD111800

11/10 19:07 WTPQ22RJTD111800

11/10 19:07 WTJP23RJTD111800

11/10 16:03 WTPQ52RJTD111500

11/10 16:03 WTPQ22RJTD111500

11/10 14:09 WTPQ32RJTD111200

11/10 13:05 WTPQ52RJTD111200

11/10 13:03 WTPQ22RJTD111200

11/10 13:03 WTJP23RJTD111200

11/10 10:03 WTPQ52RJTD110900

11/10 10:01 WTPQ22RJTD110900

11/10 08:03 WTPQ32RJTD110600

11/10 07:03 WTPQ52RJTD110600

11/10 07:03 WTPQ22RJTD110600

11/10 07:03 WTJP23RJTD110600

11/10 04:03 WTPQ52RJTD110300

11/10 04:01 WTPQ22RJTD110300

11/10 01:57 WTPQ32RJTD110000

11/10 01:05 WTPQ52RJTD110000

11/10 01:05 WTPQ22RJTD110000

11/10 01:05 WTJP23RJTD110000

10/10 22:09 WTPQ52RJTD102100

10/10 22:07 WTPQ22RJTD102100

10/10 19:57 WTPQ32RJTD101800

10/10 19:07 WTPQ52RJTD101800

10/10 19:07 WTPQ22RJTD101800

10/10 19:07 WTJP23RJTD101800

10/10 16:09 WTPQ52RJTD101500

10/10 16:09 WTJP33RJTD101500

10/10 16:07 WTPQ22RJTD101500

10/10 13:43 WTPQ32RJTD101200

10/10 13:03 WTPQ52RJTD101200

10/10 13:01 WTPQ22RJTD101200

10/10 13:01 WTJP23RJTD101200

10/10 10:07 WTPQ52RJTD100900

10/10 10:07 WTPQ22RJTD100900

10/10 10:07 WTJP33RJTD100900

10/10 08:17 WTPQ32RJTD100600

10/10 07:01 WTPQ52RJTD100600

10/10 06:59 WTPQ22RJTD100600

10/10 06:59 WTJP23RJTD100600

10/10 03:55 WTPQ52RJTD100300

10/10 03:53 WTPQ22RJTD100300

10/10 02:19 WTPQ32RJTD100000

10/10 01:25 WTPQ52RJTD100000

10/10 01:25 WTPQ22RJTD100000

10/10 01:25 WTJP23RJTD100000

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 34N 167E
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 200NM =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 34N 167E
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 200NM =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 33.2N 167.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170900UTC 35.5N 166.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 172100UTC 38.6N 166.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 33.2N 167.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 38.6N 166.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 32.7N 166.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170600UTC 34.7N 166.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 171800UTC 37.7N 166.4E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 32.7N 166.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 37.7N 166.4E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 1000 HPA
AT 32.7N 166.8E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 34.7N 166.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 37.7N 166.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 32.3N 166.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170300UTC 34.1N 166.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 171500UTC 36.8N 165.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 181200UTC 42.2N 172.6E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 32.3N 166.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 36.8N 165.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 181200UTC 42.2N 172.6E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 31.9N, 165.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER SSTS, DRY AIR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 31.9N 165.4E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 170000UTC 33.5N 166.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 171200UTC 36.0N 165.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181200UTC 42.2N 172.6E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 31.9N 165.4E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 36.0N 165.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181200UTC 42.2N 172.6E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 998 HPA
AT 31.9N 165.4E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 33.5N 166.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 36.0N 165.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 42.2N 172.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 31.4N 165.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 162100UTC 33.1N 166.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 170900UTC 35.4N 166.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 180600UTC 41.2N 169.6E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 160900
WARNING 160900.
WARNING VALID 170900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 996 HPA
AT 31.4N 165.3E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 33.1N 166.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 35.4N 166.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 31.4N 165.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 35.4N 166.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 180600UTC 41.2N 169.6E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 30.7N, 165.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, DRY AIR, LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 30.7N 165.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 35.2N 166.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 180600UTC 41.2N 169.6E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 30.7N 165.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 35.2N 166.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 180600UTC 41.2N 169.6E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 996 HPA
AT 30.7N 165.1E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 35.2N 166.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 41.2N 169.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 29.9N 164.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 34.1N 165.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 180000UTC 39.1N 166.5E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 29.9N 164.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 34.1N 165.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 180000UTC 39.1N 166.5E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 29.2N, 164.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS, DRY AIR, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 29.2N 164.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 33.3N 165.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 180000UTC 39.1N 166.5E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 29.2N 164.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 33.3N 165.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 180000UTC 39.1N 166.5E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 29.2N 164.3E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 33.3N 165.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 39.1N 166.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 28.5N 163.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 32.7N 165.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 171800UTC 37.2N 165.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 181800UTC 43.6N 177.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 28.5N 163.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 32.7N 165.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 171800UTC 37.2N 165.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 181800UTC 43.6N 177.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 28.0N, 162.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 28.0N 162.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 32.0N 165.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171800UTC 37.2N 165.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 181800UTC 43.6N 177.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 28.0N 162.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 32.0N 165.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171800UTC 37.2N 165.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 181800UTC 43.6N 177.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 28.0N 162.8E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 32.0N 165.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 37.2N 165.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 43.6N 177.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 27.4N 162.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 31.3N 164.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 171200UTC 35.3N 164.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 181200UTC 42.7N 172.7E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 27.4N 162.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 31.3N 164.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 171200UTC 35.3N 164.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 181200UTC 42.7N 172.7E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 27.0N, 161.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 27.0N 161.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 30.9N 164.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171200UTC 35.3N 164.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 181200UTC 42.7N 172.7E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 27.0N 161.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 30.9N 164.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171200UTC 35.3N 164.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 181200UTC 42.7N 172.7E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 27.0N 161.8E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 30.9N 164.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 35.3N 164.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 42.7N 172.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 26.6N 161.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 30.2N 164.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 170600UTC 33.7N 165.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 180600UTC 40.5N 168.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 26.6N 161.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 30.2N 164.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 170600UTC 33.7N 165.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 180600UTC 40.5N 168.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 26.5N, 160.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 26.5N 160.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 29.7N 164.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 170600UTC 33.7N 165.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 180600UTC 40.5N 168.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 26.5N 160.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 29.7N 164.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 170600UTC 33.7N 165.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 180600UTC 40.5N 168.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 26.5N 160.7E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 29.7N 164.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 33.7N 165.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 40.5N 168.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 26.2N 160.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 29.2N 163.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 170000UTC 32.2N 164.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 180000UTC 39.0N 165.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 26.2N 160.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 29.2N 163.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 170000UTC 32.2N 164.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 180000UTC 39.0N 165.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 25.8N, 160.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 25.8N 160.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 28.8N 162.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 170000UTC 32.2N 164.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 180000UTC 39.0N 165.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 25.8N 160.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 28.8N 162.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 170000UTC 32.2N 164.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 180000UTC 39.0N 165.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 25.8N 160.0E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 28.8N 162.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 32.2N 164.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 39.0N 165.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 25.5N 159.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 28.2N 162.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161800UTC 31.0N 163.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 171800UTC 36.3N 164.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 181800UTC 43.1N 174.7E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 142100
WARNING 142100.
WARNING VALID 152100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 25.5N 159.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 28.2N 162.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 25.5N 159.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 28.2N 162.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161800UTC 31.0N 163.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 171800UTC 36.3N 164.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 25.2N, 159.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOW SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 25.2N 159.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 27.6N 161.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161800UTC 31.0N 163.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 171800UTC 36.3N 164.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 181800UTC 43.1N 174.7E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 25.2N 159.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 27.6N 161.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161800UTC 31.0N 163.7E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 171800UTC 36.3N 164.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 25.2N 159.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 27.6N 161.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 31.0N 163.7E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 36.3N 164.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 43.1N 174.7E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 24.5N 158.5E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 27.1N 161.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161200UTC 29.9N 163.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 171200UTC 34.3N 163.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 181200UTC 41.6N 171.4E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 24.5N 158.5E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 27.1N 161.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161200UTC 29.9N 163.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 171200UTC 34.3N 163.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 141500
WARNING 141500.
WARNING VALID 151500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 24.5N 158.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 27.1N 161.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 24.4N, 157.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND INCREASED
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 24.4N 157.9E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 26.7N 160.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161200UTC 29.9N 163.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 171200UTC 34.3N 163.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 181200UTC 41.6N 171.4E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 24.4N 157.9E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 26.7N 160.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161200UTC 29.9N 163.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 171200UTC 34.3N 163.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 24.4N 157.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 26.7N 160.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 29.9N 163.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 34.3N 163.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 41.6N 171.4E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 24.4N 157.6E FAIR
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 26.3N 160.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 29.1N 162.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 170600UTC 32.7N 162.8E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 24.4N 157.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 26.3N 160.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 24.4N 157.6E FAIR
MOVE E 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 26.3N 160.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 29.1N 162.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 170600UTC 32.7N 162.8E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 24.3N, 157.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 24.3N 157.4E FAIR
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 26.0N 160.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 29.1N 162.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 170600UTC 32.7N 162.8E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 24.3N 157.4E FAIR
MOVE E 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 26.0N 160.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 29.1N 162.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 170600UTC 32.7N 162.8E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 24.3N 157.4E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 26.0N 160.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 29.1N 162.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 32.7N 162.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 24.2N 157.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 26.0N 158.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 160000UTC 28.4N 161.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 170000UTC 31.2N 161.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 24.2N 157.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 26.0N 158.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 160000UTC 28.4N 161.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 170000UTC 31.2N 161.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 24.0N, 155.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 24.0N 155.8E FAIR
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 25.6N 158.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 160000UTC 28.4N 161.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 170000UTC 31.2N 161.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 24.0N 155.8E FAIR
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 25.6N 158.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 160000UTC 28.4N 161.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 170000UTC 31.2N 161.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 24.0N 155.8E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 25.6N 158.6E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 28.4N 161.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 31.2N 161.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 23.8N 155.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 25.7N 157.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151800UTC 28.0N 159.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 161800UTC 30.5N 160.8E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 23.8N 155.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 25.7N 157.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151800UTC 28.0N 159.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 161800UTC 30.5N 160.8E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 23.7N, 154.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 23.7N 154.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 25.4N 156.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151800UTC 28.0N 159.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 161800UTC 30.5N 160.8E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 23.7N 154.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 25.4N 156.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151800UTC 28.0N 159.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 161800UTC 30.5N 160.8E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 1000 HPA
AT 23.7N 154.7E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 25.4N 156.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 28.0N 159.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 30.5N 160.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 23.0N 154.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 25.3N 154.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151200UTC 27.1N 156.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 161200UTC 29.5N 159.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 171200UTC 33.9N 159.8E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 23.0N 154.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 25.3N 154.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151200UTC 27.1N 156.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 161200UTC 29.5N 159.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 22.7N, 153.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 22.7N 153.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 25.1N 154.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151200UTC 27.1N 156.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 161200UTC 29.5N 159.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 171200UTC 33.9N 159.8E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 22.7N 153.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 25.1N 154.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151200UTC 27.1N 156.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 161200UTC 29.5N 159.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 1000 HPA
AT 22.7N 153.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 25.1N 154.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 27.1N 156.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 29.5N 159.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 33.9N 159.8E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 22.6N 153.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 24.8N 154.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150600UTC 26.5N 155.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 160600UTC 27.9N 157.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 170600UTC 31.3N 158.3E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 22.6N 153.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 24.8N 154.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150600UTC 26.5N 155.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 160600UTC 27.9N 157.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 22.4N, 152.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND STRONG
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 22.4N 152.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 24.7N 153.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150600UTC 26.5N 155.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 160600UTC 27.9N 157.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 170600UTC 31.3N 158.3E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 22.4N 152.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 24.7N 153.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150600UTC 26.5N 155.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 160600UTC 27.9N 157.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 1000 HPA
AT 22.4N 152.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 24.7N 153.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 26.5N 155.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 27.9N 157.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 31.3N 158.3E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 22.2N 152.4E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 24.4N 153.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150000UTC 26.3N 154.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 160000UTC 27.9N 157.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 170000UTC 30.9N 158.3E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 22.2N 152.4E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 24.4N 153.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150000UTC 26.3N 154.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 160000UTC 27.9N 157.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 21.7N, 152.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND STRONG
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 21.7N 152.4E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 24.1N 152.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150000UTC 26.3N 154.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 160000UTC 27.9N 157.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 170000UTC 30.9N 158.3E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 21.7N 152.4E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 24.1N 152.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150000UTC 26.3N 154.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 160000UTC 27.9N 157.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 21.7N 152.4E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 24.1N 152.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 26.3N 154.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 27.9N 157.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 30.9N 158.3E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 21.5N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 23.9N 152.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 141800UTC 25.8N 153.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 151800UTC 27.1N 154.9E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 21.5N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 23.9N 152.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 141800UTC 25.8N 153.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 151800UTC 27.1N 154.9E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 21.2N, 152.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 21.2N 152.4E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 24.0N 152.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141800UTC 25.8N 153.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 151800UTC 27.1N 154.9E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 21.2N 152.4E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 24.0N 152.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141800UTC 25.8N 153.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 151800UTC 27.1N 154.9E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 21.2N 152.4E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 24.0N 152.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 25.8N 153.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 27.1N 154.9E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 20.8N 152.2E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 22.0N 151.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 131500UTC 23.2N 150.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 141200UTC 24.3N 149.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 151200UTC 26.2N 152.6E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 20.8N 152.2E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 23.2N 150.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 141200UTC 24.3N 149.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 151200UTC 26.2N 152.6E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 20.1N, 151.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM
THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 20.1N 151.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 21.3N 151.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 131200UTC 22.3N 150.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141200UTC 24.3N 149.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 151200UTC 26.2N 152.6E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 20.1N 151.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 22.3N 150.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141200UTC 24.3N 149.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 151200UTC 26.2N 152.6E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 20.1N 151.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST
SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 21.3N 151.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 22.3N 150.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 24.3N 149.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 26.2N 152.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 19.4N 151.9E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 20.5N 150.7E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130900UTC 21.7N 150.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 140600UTC 23.6N 148.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 150600UTC 25.6N 150.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 160600UTC 27.9N 153.8E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 19.4N 151.9E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 21.7N 150.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 140600UTC 23.6N 148.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 150600UTC 25.6N 150.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 152.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER BECAUSE THE POLEWARD-TURN FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 19.6N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 20.8N 150.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130600UTC 22.0N 149.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 140600UTC 23.6N 148.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 150600UTC 25.6N 150.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 160600UTC 27.9N 153.8E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 19.6N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 22.0N 149.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 140600UTC 23.6N 148.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 150600UTC 25.6N 150.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 19.6N 152.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 20.8N 150.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 22.0N 149.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 23.6N 148.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 25.6N 150.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 27.9N 153.8E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 19.6N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121500UTC 20.5N 150.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130300UTC 21.6N 150.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 140000UTC 23.0N 148.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 150000UTC 24.7N 149.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 160000UTC 25.9N 152.7E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 19.6N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130300UTC 21.6N 150.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 140000UTC 23.0N 148.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 150000UTC 24.7N 149.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 19.5N, 152.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER BECAUSE THE POLEWARD-TURN FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 19.5N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121200UTC 20.3N 151.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130000UTC 21.4N 150.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 140000UTC 23.0N 148.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 150000UTC 24.7N 149.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 160000UTC 25.9N 152.7E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 19.5N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 21.4N 150.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 140000UTC 23.0N 148.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 150000UTC 24.7N 149.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 19.5N 152.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 20.3N 151.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 21.4N 150.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 23.0N 148.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 24.7N 149.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 25.9N 152.7E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 19.0N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120900UTC 20.2N 152.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 122100UTC 21.3N 150.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 131800UTC 22.7N 148.4E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 141800UTC 24.1N 149.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 151800UTC 25.7N 152.3E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 19.0N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 21.3N 150.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 131800UTC 22.7N 148.4E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 141800UTC 24.1N 149.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 18.8N, 153.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED
TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 18.8N 153.2E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120600UTC 20.1N 152.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 121800UTC 21.0N 150.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 131800UTC 22.7N 148.4E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 141800UTC 24.1N 149.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 151800UTC 25.7N 152.3E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 18.8N 153.2E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 21.0N 150.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 131800UTC 22.7N 148.4E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 141800UTC 24.1N 149.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 18.8N 153.2E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 20.1N 152.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 21.0N 150.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 22.7N 148.4E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 24.1N 149.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 25.7N 152.3E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 19.0N 154.1E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120300UTC 20.0N 152.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 121500UTC 21.0N 150.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 131200UTC 22.2N 147.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 141200UTC 23.7N 147.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 151200UTC 25.8N 149.7E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 19.0N 154.1E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 21.0N 150.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 131200UTC 22.2N 147.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 141200UTC 23.7N 147.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 19.3N, 155.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE NORTHEASTSIDE OF THE
CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, STRONG
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED
AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND STRONG
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 19.3N 155.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120000UTC 19.8N 152.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 121200UTC 20.7N 151.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 131200UTC 22.2N 147.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 141200UTC 23.7N 147.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 151200UTC 25.8N 149.7E 260NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 19.3N 155.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 20.7N 151.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 131200UTC 22.2N 147.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 141200UTC 23.7N 147.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 19.3N 155.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 19.8N 152.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 20.7N 151.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 22.2N 147.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 23.7N 147.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 25.8N 149.7E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 18.7N 155.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 112100UTC 19.5N 153.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 120900UTC 20.3N 151.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 130600UTC 21.9N 148.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 140600UTC 23.3N 146.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 150600UTC 25.6N 148.8E 260NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 160600UTC 28.1N 151.4E 360NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 18.7N 155.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 20.3N 151.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 130600UTC 21.9N 148.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 140600UTC 23.3N 146.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 18.6N, 156.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH STRONG VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 18.6N 156.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 111800UTC 19.5N 153.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 120600UTC 20.2N 151.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 130600UTC 21.9N 148.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 140600UTC 23.3N 146.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 150600UTC 25.6N 148.8E 260NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 160600UTC 28.1N 151.4E 360NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 18.6N 156.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 20.2N 151.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 130600UTC 21.9N 148.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 140600UTC 23.3N 146.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 110600
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 998 HPA
AT 18.6N 156.0E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 19.5N 153.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 20.2N 151.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 21.9N 148.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 23.3N 146.9E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 25.6N 148.8E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 28.1N 151.4E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 18.4N 156.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 19.8N 152.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 130000UTC 21.4N 150.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 140000UTC 23.0N 148.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 150000UTC 25.1N 148.6E 260NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 160000UTC 26.7N 151.1E 360NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 18.4N 156.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 19.8N 152.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 130000UTC 21.4N 150.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 140000UTC 23.0N 148.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 18.1N, 157.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 18.1N 157.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 19.7N 153.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 130000UTC 21.4N 150.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 140000UTC 23.0N 148.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 150000UTC 25.1N 148.6E 260NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 160000UTC 26.7N 151.1E 360NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 18.1N 157.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 19.7N 153.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 130000UTC 21.4N 150.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 140000UTC 23.0N 148.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 110000
WARNING 110000.
WARNING VALID 120000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 1000 HPA
AT 18.1N 157.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 19.7N 153.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 21.4N 150.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 23.0N 148.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 25.1N 148.6E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 26.7N 151.1E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 18.0N 158.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 19.5N 153.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 121800UTC 21.0N 151.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 131800UTC 23.1N 150.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 141800UTC 25.0N 151.1E 260NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 151800UTC 28.3N 154.6E 360NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 18.0N 158.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 19.5N 153.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 121800UTC 21.0N 151.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 131800UTC 23.1N 150.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 158.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 17.9N 158.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 19.3N 154.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 121800UTC 21.0N 151.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 131800UTC 23.1N 150.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 141800UTC 25.0N 151.1E 260NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 151800UTC 28.3N 154.6E 360NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 17.9N 158.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 19.3N 154.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 121800UTC 21.0N 151.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 131800UTC 23.1N 150.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 1000 HPA
AT 17.9N 158.8E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 19.3N 154.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 21.0N 151.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 23.1N 150.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 25.0N 151.1E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 28.3N 154.6E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 17.6N 158.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 19.1N 154.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 121200UTC 20.9N 152.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 131200UTC 23.4N 151.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 141200UTC 25.4N 152.5E 260NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 151200UTC 28.1N 155.6E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 101500
WARNING 101500.
WARNING VALID 111500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 1000 HPA
AT 17.6N 158.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 19.1N 154.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 17.6N 158.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 19.1N 154.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 121200UTC 20.9N 152.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 131200UTC 23.4N 151.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 17.2N, 159.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE
GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. GPM/GMI
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 17.2N 159.2E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 18.9N 155.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 121200UTC 20.9N 152.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 131200UTC 23.4N 151.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 141200UTC 25.4N 152.5E 260NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 151200UTC 28.1N 155.6E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 17.2N 159.2E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 18.9N 155.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 121200UTC 20.9N 152.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 131200UTC 23.4N 151.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 1000 HPA
AT 17.2N 159.2E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 18.9N 155.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 20.9N 152.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 23.4N 151.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 25.4N 152.5E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 28.1N 155.6E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 17.0N 159.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 18.8N 155.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 120600UTC 20.1N 153.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 130600UTC 22.5N 152.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 140600UTC 24.5N 152.7E 260NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 150600UTC 26.6N 155.7E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 17.0N 159.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 18.8N 155.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 120600UTC 20.1N 153.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 130600UTC 22.5N 152.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 100900
WARNING 100900.
WARNING VALID 110900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 1000 HPA
AT 17.0N 159.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 18.8N 155.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 16.9N, 159.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 16.9N 159.4E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 18.6N 156.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 120600UTC 20.1N 153.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 130600UTC 22.5N 152.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 140600UTC 24.5N 152.7E 260NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 150600UTC 26.6N 155.7E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 16.9N 159.4E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 18.6N 156.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 120600UTC 20.1N 153.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 130600UTC 22.5N 152.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 100600
WARNING 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) 1000 HPA
AT 16.9N 159.4E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 18.6N 156.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 20.1N 153.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 22.5N 152.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 24.5N 152.7E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 26.6N 155.7E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 17.0N 160.0E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 18.2N 157.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 120000UTC 19.6N 154.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 130000UTC 22.1N 153.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 140000UTC 24.0N 153.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 150000UTC 26.5N 155.8E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 17.0N 160.0E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 18.2N 157.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 120000UTC 19.6N 154.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 130000UTC 22.1N 153.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 16.9N, 161.0E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(NAMTHEUN) STATUS. TS NAMTHEUN IS LOCATED AT 17.0N, 160.3E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH STRONG VWS AND HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 17.0N 160.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 18.0N 157.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 120000UTC 19.6N 154.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 130000UTC 22.1N 153.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 140000UTC 24.0N 153.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 150000UTC 26.5N 155.8E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 17.0N 160.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 18.0N 157.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 120000UTC 19.6N 154.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 130000UTC 22.1N 153.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2119 NAMTHEUN (2119) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 17.0N 160.3E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 18.0N 157.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 19.6N 154.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 22.1N 153.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 24.0N 153.2E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 26.5N 155.8E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=