Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MALOU-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 34N 150E
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 976HPA
MXWD 065KT
30KT 300NM =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 34N 150E
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 976HPA
MXWD 065KT
30KT 300NM =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 32.9N 149.0E POOR
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 292100UTC 37.1N 154.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 31KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 300900UTC 42.6N 164.4E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 32.9N 149.0E POOR
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300900UTC 42.6N 164.4E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 970 HPA
AT 32.9N 149.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 37.1N 154.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 42.6N 164.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 290900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR 022A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR 022A CORRECTED
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 32.0N 146.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.0N 146.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 36.5N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 41.7N 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 148.3E.
29OCT21. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATED AS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE MSI LOOP ALSO CLEARLY SHOWS THE LLC HAS
ACCELERATED AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN A NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT AS
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LINES FEED INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN THE
MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE WEAKENING AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS MALOU IS NOW IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDER
HIGH (30KT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNDERGOING RAPID EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 32 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED FORCAST DISCUSSION TO
REMARKS//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MALOU IS LOCATED AT 32.3N, 147.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW SSTS, STRONG VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 32.3N 147.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 291800UTC 36.3N 153.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 32KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 300600UTC 41.9N 163.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 32.3N 147.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 41.9N 163.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 290600
WARNING 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 965 HPA
AT 32.3N 147.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 36.3N 153.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 41.9N 163.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 30.7N 145.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 291500UTC 34.7N 151.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 31KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 300300UTC 40.1N 159.9E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 30.7N 145.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300300UTC 40.1N 159.9E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 290300
WARNING 290300.
WARNING VALID 300300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 965 HPA
AT 30.7N 145.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 34.7N 151.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 40.1N 159.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MALOU IS LOCATED AT 29.7N, 144.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 29.7N 144.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 291200UTC 33.6N 149.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 300000UTC 38.4N 157.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 29.7N 144.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 38.4N 157.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 290000
WARNING 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 965 HPA
AT 29.7N 144.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 33.6N 149.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 38.4N 157.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 28.9N 144.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 290900UTC 32.6N 148.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 292100UTC 37.2N 155.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 36KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 301800UTC 44.5N 169.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 282100
WARNING 282100.
WARNING VALID 292100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 965 HPA
AT 28.9N 144.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 32.6N 148.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 37.2N 155.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 28.9N 144.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 37.2N 155.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 36KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 301800UTC 44.5N 169.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MALOU IS LOCATED AT 27.9N, 143.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT06. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 27.9N 143.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 290600UTC 31.6N 146.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 291800UTC 35.9N 153.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 34KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 301800UTC 44.5N 169.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 27.9N 143.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 35.9N 153.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 34KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 301800UTC 44.5N 169.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 965 HPA
AT 27.9N 143.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 31.6N 146.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 35.9N 153.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 44.5N 169.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 27.0N 142.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 290300UTC 30.5N 145.7E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 291500UTC 34.4N 151.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 31KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 301200UTC 43.7N 167.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 281500
WARNING 281500.
WARNING VALID 291500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 965 HPA
AT 27.0N 142.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 30.5N 145.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 34.4N 151.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 27.0N 142.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 34.4N 151.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 31KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 301200UTC 43.7N 167.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MALOU IS LOCATED AT 26.2N, 142.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 26.2N 142.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 290000UTC 29.7N 144.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 23KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 291200UTC 33.3N 149.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 301200UTC 43.7N 167.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 26.2N 142.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 33.3N 149.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 301200UTC 43.7N 167.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 281200
WARNING 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 965 HPA
AT 26.2N 142.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 29.7N 144.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 33.3N 149.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 43.7N 167.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 25.4N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 282100UTC 28.7N 144.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 290900UTC 32.4N 148.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 300600UTC 41.0N 162.0E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 280900
WARNING 280900.
WARNING VALID 290900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 965 HPA
AT 25.4N 141.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 28.7N 144.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 32.4N 148.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 25.4N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 290900UTC 32.4N 148.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 300600UTC 41.0N 162.0E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MALOU IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 141.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT18 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 24.9N 141.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 281800UTC 27.8N 143.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 290600UTC 31.5N 146.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 300600UTC 41.0N 162.0E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 24.9N 141.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 290600UTC 31.5N 146.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 300600UTC 41.0N 162.0E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 965 HPA
AT 24.9N 141.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 27.8N 143.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 31.5N 146.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 41.0N 162.0E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 24.2N 141.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 281500UTC 27.1N 143.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 290300UTC 30.6N 146.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 300000UTC 38.7N 158.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 280300
WARNING 280300.
WARNING VALID 290300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 965 HPA
AT 24.2N 141.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 27.1N 143.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 30.6N 146.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 24.2N 141.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 290300UTC 30.6N 146.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 300000UTC 38.7N 158.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MALOU IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 140.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 23.4N 140.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 281200UTC 26.4N 142.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 290000UTC 29.8N 144.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 300000UTC 38.7N 158.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 23.4N 140.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 29.8N 144.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 300000UTC 38.7N 158.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 280000
WARNING 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 965 HPA
AT 23.4N 140.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 26.4N 142.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 29.8N 144.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 38.7N 158.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 23.2N 140.4E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 90NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 280900UTC 25.8N 142.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 282100UTC 29.1N 144.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 291800UTC 36.1N 154.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 272100
WARNING 272100.
WARNING VALID 282100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) 975 HPA
AT 23.2N 140.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 25.8N 142.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 29.1N 144.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 23.2N 140.4E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 90NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 282100UTC 29.1N 144.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 291800UTC 36.1N 154.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2120 MALOU (2120)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MALOU IS LOCATED AT 22.7N, 140.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-A/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 271800
WARNING 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2120 MALOU (2120) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975 HPA
AT 22.7N 140.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 25.0N 141.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 28.2N 143.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 36.1N 154.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 271500
WARNING 271500.
WARNING VALID 281500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2120 MALOU (2120) 980 HPA
AT 22.3N 139.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 27.0N 142.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 270900
WARNING 270900.
WARNING VALID 280900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2120 MALOU (2120) 980 HPA
AT 21.5N 139.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 25.4N 141.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 270300
WARNING 270300.
WARNING VALID 280300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2120 MALOU (2120) 985 HPA
AT 21.5N 139.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 24.8N 141.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=