Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ANA-22
in Mozambique, Malawi, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar, Zimbabwe

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Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251209
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/1/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 32.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2022 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 26/01/2022 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 28.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 27/01/2022 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 27.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 27/01/2022 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 26.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 28/01/2022 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 25.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE EST DELICATE QUE CE SOIT AVEC LES IMAGES
VISIBLES OU LES MICRO-ONDES. AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES,
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST BIEN AFFAIBLIE MAIS PRESENTE ENCORE UN
POTENTIEL DE PRECIPITATIONS SUR UNE LARGE ZONE. LE VENT CONTINUE DE
FAIBLIR MAIS LES PRECIPITATIONS RESTENT PRESENTES.

EN TERME DE PREVISION, PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA DIRECTION MAIS UNE
TRAJECTOIRE UN PEU PLUS RAPIDE DE PREVUE PRECEDEMENT POUR LES COURTES
ECHEANCES. LE SYSTEME VA CONTINUER UNE PROGRESSION RAPIDE EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD A NORD-OUEST DES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE BASSES A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAUX. SUR
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME ATTEINT EN COURS DE JOURNEE LE NORD DU
ZIMBABWE.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, ALORS QU'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE SE
PRESENTE AU SUD, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE DE CE SYSTEME VA RALENTIR A
PROXIMITE DU SUD DE LA ZAMBIE. ELLE DEVRAIT ENSUITE DISPARAITRE
LENTEMENT SUR LE SUD DE LA ZAMBIE EN COURS DE WEEK-END

CONSEQUENCES ATTENDUES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

- VENTS: LES VENTS FAIBLISSENT MAIS DES RAFALES APPROCHANT LES 80KM/H
SUR LA COTE SONT ENCORE POSSIBLES EN SOIREE.

- PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 100/150 MM EN 24H RESTENT ATTENDUS
LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H AVEC LOCALEMENT
200 MM POSSIBLES SUR LE NORD-OUEST DU MOZAMBIQUE. SUR LE LITTORAL,
LES CUMULS DEVRAIENT FAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT BIEN QUE DES PAQUETS
CONVECTIFS POUVENT ENCORE CONCERNER LA COTE. EN COURS DE NUIT ET
DEMAIN, LES FORTES PLUIES GAGNENT LE NORD DU ZIMBABWE PUIS LE SUD DE
LA ZAMBIE EN COURS DE NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI. LORS DU DEPLACEMENT
LENT DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL, DES CUMULS DE PLUIES LOCALEMENT ABONDANTS Y
SERONT POSSIBLES LAISSANT DES QUANTITES SUR 24H DE L'ORDRE DE LA
MOITIE DES MOYENNES MENSUELLES DE JANVIER SUR CES REGIONS. SUR LA
ZAMBIE CES PRECIPITATIONS POURRAIENT DURER JUSQU'EN COURS DE
WEEK-END.

CE BULLETIN EST LE DERNIER SUR CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251209
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/1/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 32.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/26 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/01/26 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 28.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/01/27 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 27.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/27 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 26.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/28 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 25.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS DELICATE WITH BOTH VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES. DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED BUT STILL PRESENTS A POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATIONS ON A
LARGE AREA. THE WIND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS PRESENT.

IN TERMS OF FORECASTING, LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION BUT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE A FAST MOTION WESTWARD ON THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FACADE
OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE DURING THE DAY.
FROM THURSDAY, WHILE A BAROMETRIC COL IS BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, THE
RESIDUAL DEPRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN NEAR SOUTH ZAMBIA.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DISAPPEAR OVER THE WEEK-END ON
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF ZAMBIA.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :

- WINDS: WINDS ARE WEAKENING BUT GUSTS APPROACHING 80KM/H ON THE
COAST ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING.

- RAINS: 100/150 MM RAINFALLS IN 24H ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24H WITH LOCALLY 200 MM POSSIBLE OEVR THE
NORTH-WESTERN PARTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. ON THE COAST, THE RAINFALLS SHOULD
WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE PACKAGES MAY STILL CONCERN
THE COAST. TODAY, HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE THEN
SOUTHERN ZAMBIA FROM THURSDAY. DURING THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
RESIDUAL MINIMUM, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WITH 24-HOUR AMOUNTS OF THE ORDER OF HALF THE MONTHLY AVERAGES FOR
JANUARY OVER THESE REGIONS. OVER ZAMBIA THESE PRECIPITATIONS MAY LAST
OVER THE WEEK-END.

THIS WARNING IS THE LAST ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250611
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/1/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 34.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET TRENTE QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2022 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 26/01/2022 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 26/01/2022 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 27.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 27/01/2022 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 27.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 27/01/2022 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 26.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 28/01/2022 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 25.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
MAINTENUE AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT A PRES 500KM MAIS AUSSI AU
NIVEAU D'UNE BANDE PERIPHERIQUE AU SUD-EST DU CENTRE TOUCHANT ENCORE
LA COTE DU MOZAMBIQUE VERS BEIRA. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES
VISIBLES AINSI QUE LA PASSE SSMIS DE 0158UTC PERMETTENT UNE
LOCALISATION UN PEU PLUS AU SUD DE CELLE FAITE PRECEDEMMENT. CELA
LAISSE UNE LOCALISATION DE ANA DANS LA VALLEE DU ZAMBEZE. L'EXTENSION
DES VENTS DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST LAISSE ENCORE DE VALEURS DE VENT
PROCHES DES 30KT SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES. LE VENT VA
PROGRESSIVEMENT FAIBLIR.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE : AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24-36H, LE SYSTEME VA CONTINUER UNE PROGRESSION RAPIDE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD A NORD-OUEST DES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS DE BASSES A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAUX. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME VA TRAVERSER RAPIDEMENT LE SUD DU MALAWI CE
MATIN PUIS ATTEINDRE LA NUIT PROCHAINE LE NORD DU ZIMBABWE.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, ALORS QU'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE SE
PRESENTE AU SUD, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE DE CE SYSTEME VA RALENTIR A
PROXIMITE DU SUD DE LA ZAMBIE. ELLE DEVRAIT ENSUITE DISPARAITRE
LENTEMENT SUR LE SUD DE LA ZAMBIE EN COURS DE WEEK-END

CONSEQUENCES ATTENDUES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

- VENTS: DES VENTS FORTS AVEC DES RAFALES A 80-100 KM/H SE
MAINTIENNENT SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE BEIRA A QUELIMANE JUSQU'EN
FIN DE MATINEE AVANT UN NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT

-PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 100/150 MM EN 24H RESTENT ATTENDUS
LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H AVEC LOCALEMENT
200 MM POSSIBLES SUR LE NORD-OUEST DU MOZAMBIQUE. SUR LE LITTORAL,
LES CUMULS DEVRAIENT FAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT BIEN QUE DES PAQUETS
CONVECTIFS POUVENT ENCORE CONCERNER LA COTE. EN COURS DE JOURNEE ET
DEMAIN, LES FORTES PLUIES GAGNENT LE NORD DU ZIMBABWE PUIS LE SUD DE
LA ZAMBIE EN COURS DE NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI. DES CUMULS DE PLUIES
LOCALEMENT ABONDANTS Y SERONT POSSIBLES COMPTE TENU DU DEPLACEMENT
LENT DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL. SUR LA ZAMBIE CES PRECIPITATIONS POURRAIENT
DURER JUSQU'EN COURS DE WEEK-END.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250611
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/1/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 34.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/25 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/01/26 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/01/26 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 27.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/27 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 27.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/27 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 26.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/01/28 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 25.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING TO ABOUT 500KM BUT ALSO AT THE
LEVEL OF A PERIPHERAL BAND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER STILL TOUCHING THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE TOWARDS BEIRA. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
AS WELL AS THE SSMI SWATH OF 0158UTC ALLOW A LOCATION A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE ONE MADE BEFORE. THIS LEAVES A LOCATION OF ANA IN THE
ZAMBEZI VALLEY. THE EXTENSION OF THE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT STILL LEAVES WIND VALUES CLOSE TO 30KT ON THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTS. THE WIND WILL PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, DURING THE NEXT 24-36H, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE A FAST MOTION WESTWARD ON THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FACADE
OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY CROSS SOUTHERN MALAWI THIS MORNING AND THEN REACH
NORTHERN ZIMBABWE NEXT NIGHT.
FROM THURSDAY, WHILE A BAROMETRIC COL IS BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, THE
RESIDUAL DEPRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN NEAR SOUTH ZAMBIA.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DISAPPEAR OVER THE WEEK-END ON
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF ZAMBIA.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :

- WINDS: STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 80-100 KM/H CONTINUED OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS FROM BEIRA TO QUELIMANE UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY

RAINS: 100/150 MM RAINFALLS IN 24H ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24H WITH LOCALLY 200 MM POSSIBLE OEVR THE
NORTH-WESTERN PARTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. ON THE COAST, THE RAINFALLS SHOULD
WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE PACKAGES MAY STILL CONCERN
THE COAST. TODAY, HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE THEN
SOUTHERN ZAMBIA FROM THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RESIDUAL LOW. OVER ZAMBIA
THESE PRECIPITATIONS MAY LAST OVER THE WEEK-END.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 250557
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 25/01/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (ANA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 34.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 32.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2022/01/26 AT 06 UTC:
16.3 S / 30.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250044
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/1/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 35.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2022 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 26/01/2022 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 29.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 26/01/2022 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 28.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 27/01/2022 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 26.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 27/01/2022 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 25.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 28/01/2022 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 24.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A NETTEMENT
FAIBLIE PRES DU COEUR INTERNE, ET LE CENTRE DE LA CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONAIRE EST DEVENU PLUS DIFFICILE A SUIVRE. LES IMAGES
SATELLITES ET LA PASSE PARTIELLE AMSR2 DE 2227Z LE CONFIRMENT. CETTE
DEGRADATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST BIEN ENTENDUE LIEE A
L'EVOLUTION SUR TERRE D'ANA MAIS PEUT ETRE EGALEMENT A UNE INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36H, LE SYSTEME VA CONTINUER UNE PROGRESSION
RAPIDE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD A
NORD-OUEST DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE BASSES A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAUX. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME VA TRAVERSER
RAPIDEMENT LE SUD DU MALAWI CE MATIN PUIS ATTEINDRE LA NUIT PROCHAINE
LE NORD DU ZIMBABWE.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, ALORS QU'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE SE
PRESENTE AU SUD, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE DE CE SYSTEME VA RALENTIR A
PROXIMITE DU SUD DE LA ZAMBIE. ELLE DEVRAIT ENSUITE DISPARAITRE
LENTEMENT SUR LE SUD DE LA ZAMBIE EN COURS DE WEEK-END

CONSEQUENCES ATTENDUES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

- VENTS: DES VENTS FORTS AVEC DES RAFALES A 80-100 KM/H SE
MAINTIENNENT SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE BEIRA A QUELIMANE CE MATIN
AVANT UN NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT

-PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 100/150 MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUS LE
LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H AVEC LOCALEMENT
200 MM POSSIBLES SUR LE NORD-OUEST DU MOZAMBIQUE. SUR LE LITTORAL,
LES CUMULS DEVRAIENT ETRE PLUS FAIBLES. EN COURS DE JOURNEE ET
DEMAIN, LES FORTES PLUIES GAGNENT LE NORD DU ZIMBABWE PUIS LE SUD DE
LA ZAMBIE A PARTIR DE JEUDI. DES CUMULS DE PLUIES LOCALEMENT
ABONDANTS Y SERONT POSSIBLES COMPTE TENU DU DEPLACEMENT LENT DU
MINIMUM RESIDUEL. SUR LA ZAMBIE CES PRECIPITATIONS POURRAIENT DURER
JUSQU'EN COURS DE WEEK-END.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250044
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/1/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 35.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/25 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/01/26 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 29.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/01/26 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 28.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/27 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 26.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/27 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 25.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/01/28 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 24.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COLLAPSED NEAR THE INNER
CORE, AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS INCREASINGLY
DIFFICULT TO MONITOR PRECISELY ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND 2227Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE DATA. CLOUD PATTERN DECAY IS OF COURSE RELATED TO ITS
JOURNEY OVERLAND BUT MAYBE ALSO DUE TO AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

DURING THE NEXT 36H, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A FAST MOTION WESTWARD
ON THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FACADE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SWIFTLY SOUTHERN
MALAWI THIS MORNING AND THEN REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE TONIGHT.
FROM THURSDAY, WHILE A BAROMETRIC COL IS BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, THE
RESIDUAL DEPRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN NEAR SOUTH ZAMBIA.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DISAPPEAR OVER THE WEEK-END ON
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF ZAMBIA.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :

- WINDS: STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 80-100 KM/H ARE STILL PRESENT OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS FROM BEIRA TO QUELIMANE THIS MORNING BEFORE A
SINGIFICANT WEAKENING.

RAINS: 100/150 MM RAINFALLS IN 24H ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24H WITH LOCALLY 200 MM POSSIBLE OEVR THE
NORTH-WESTERN PARTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. ON THE SHORELINE RAINFALLS SHOULD
BE WEAKER. TODAY, HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE THEN
SOUTHERN ZAMBIA FROM THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RESIDUAL LOW. OVER ZAMBIA
THESE PRECIPITATIONS MAY LAST OVER THE WEEK-END.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 250031
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 25/01/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (ANA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 35.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 32.3 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2022/01/26 AT 00 UTC:
15.9 S / 29.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241849
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/1/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 37.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 405 SO: 370 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2022 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 25/01/2022 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 26/01/2022 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 30.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 26/01/2022 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 27.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 27/01/2022 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 27.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 27/01/2022 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 26.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUE
DE SE MAINTENIR A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE D'ANA. LA CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONAIRE EST TOUJOURS NETTEMENT VISIBLE SUR LES IMAGES
SATELLITES ET LES PASSES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1323Z ET 1446Z.
L'INTENSITE ET LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME ONT ETE ANALYSE A PARTIR DES
QUELQUES OBSERVATIONS DISPONIBLES.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H, LE SYSTEME VA CONTINUER UNE PROGRESSION
RAPIDE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD A
NORD-OUEST DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE BASSES A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAUX. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME VA PASSER D'ICI DEMAIN
SUR LE SUD DU MALAWI PUIS ATTEINDRE MERCREDI LE NORD DU ZIMBABWE.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, ALORS QU'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE SE
PRESENTE AU SUD, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE DE CE SYSTEME VA RALENTIR A
PROXIMITE DU SUD DE LA ZAMBIE.LA CIRCULATION RESIDUELLE DEVRAIT
ENSUITE DISPARAITRE LENTEMENT SUR LE SUD DE LA ZAMBIE.

CONSEQUENCES ATTENDUES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

- VENTS: DES VENTS FORTS AVEC DES RAFALES A 80-100 KM/H SE
MAINTIENNENT SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE BEIRA A ANGOCHE JUSQU'A
DEMAIN AVANT UN NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT

-PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 100/150 MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUS LE
LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24-30H AVEC LOCALEMENT
200 MM POSSIBLES SUR LE NORD-OUEST DU MOZABIQUE ET LE MALAWI. SUR LE
LITTORAL, LES CUMULS DEVRAIENT ETRE PLUS FAIBLES 50 A 100MM. AU
COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, LES FORTES PLUIES GAGNENT LE NORD DU
ZIMBABWE (MERCREDI) PUIS LE SUD DE LA ZAMBIE A PARTIR DE JEUDI. DES
CUMULS DE PLUIES LOCALEMENT ABONDANTS Y SERONT POSSIBLES COMPTE TENU
DU DEPLACEMENT LENT DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL. SUR LA ZAMBIE CES
PRECIPITATIONS POURRAIENT DURER JUSQU'EN COURS DE WEEK-END.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/1/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 37.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/25 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 400 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/01/25 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/01/26 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 30.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/26 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 27.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/27 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 27.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/01/27 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 26.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINTAINED OVER ANA
INNER CORE. THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL DEFINED AS SHOWN
BY SATELLITES IMAGES AND 1323Z AND 1446Z SSMIS SWATHS. INTENSITY AND
INITIAL STRUCTURE WERE ASSESSED WITH THE FEW AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS.

DURING THE NEXT 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A FAST MOTION IN
GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION ON THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FACADE OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS SOUTHERN MALAWI BY TOMORROW AND THEN REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE ON
WEDNESDAY.
FROM THURSDAY, WHILE A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION IS BUILDING IN THE
SOUTH, THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN NEAR
SOUTH ZAMBIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY DISAPPEAR OVER
THE WEEK-END ON THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF ZAMBIA.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :

- WINDS: STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 80-100 KM/H ARE STILL PRESENT OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS FROM BEIRA TO ANGOCHE UNTIL TOMORROW BEFORE A
SINGIFICANT WEAKENING.

RAINS: 100/150 MM RAINFALLS IN 24H ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24-30H WITH LOCALLY 200 MM POSSIBLE OEVR THE
NORTH-WESTERN PARTS OF MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI. ON THE SHORELINE
RAINFALLS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER 50 TO 100 MM. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE (WEDNESDAY) THEN
SOUTHERN ZAMBIA FROM THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RESIDUAL LOW. OVER ZAMBIA
THESE PRECIPITATIONS MAY LAST OVER THE WEEK-END.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 241836 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/01/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (ANA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 37.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 06 UTC:
17.0 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 32.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 241819
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/01/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 1 (ANA) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 37.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 06 UTC:
17.0 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT,
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 32.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT,

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 220124132304
2022012412 07S ANA 003 01 265 16 SATL SYNP 045
T000 163S 0388E 045 R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 125 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 163S 0361E 035
T024 165S 0336E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 38.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 38.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.3S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.5S 33.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 38.1E.
24JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
0722011900 118S 572E 15
0722011906 119S 579E 15
0722011912 123S 586E 15
0722011918 128S 590E 20
0722012000 135S 591E 20
0722012006 141S 587E 25
0722012012 146S 588E 25
0722012018 149S 587E 30
0722012100 154S 580E 30
0722012106 158S 575E 30
0722012112 164S 566E 30
0722012118 170S 546E 30
0722012200 175S 525E 30
0722012206 178S 504E 30
0722012212 175S 484E 30
0722012218 172S 469E 25
0722012300 164S 459E 25
0722012306 158S 452E 30
0722012312 157S 444E 35
0722012318 158S 433E 40
0722012400 161S 421E 45
0722012406 162S 405E 50
0722012406 162S 405E 50
0722012412 163S 388E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 38.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 38.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.3S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.5S 33.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 38.1E.
24JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153
NM SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY
240800Z NEAR ANGOCHE, MOZAMBIQUE. SURFACE WINDS AT ANGOCHE SWITCHED
FROM SOUTHERLY AT 20 KNOTS AT 240800Z TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 12 KNOTS
AT 240900Z AS THE SYSTEM CENTER TRACKED INLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 241137Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS
CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
CONSERVATIVELY AT 45 KNOTS. TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241254
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/1/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 38.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 405 SO: 280 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2022 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 520 SO: 465 NO: 0

24H: 25/01/2022 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 26/01/2022 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 26/01/2022 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 29.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 27/01/2022 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 28.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 27/01/2022 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 27.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/01/2022 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 25.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 29/01/2022 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 24.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LE SYSTEME A TOUCHE LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE A PROXIMITE DE LA VILLE
D'ANGOCHE VERS 08Z. MALGRE UNE POURSUITE DES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION
A L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE CLASSIQUE JUSTE APRES LE DERNIER RESEAU,
L'IMAGERIE 89 GHZ AMSUB DE LA FAUCHEE METOP-B DE 0652Z MONTRE UN
COEUR CENTRAL ASSEZ MAL DEFINI ET EMPIETANT DEJA SUR LES TERRES.
L'INTENSITE AU MOMENT DU LANDFALL RESTE ESTIMEE A 45 KT (PMIN 990
HPA).

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H, LE SYSTEME VA CONTINUER UNE PROGRESSION
RAPIDE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD A
NORD-OUEST DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE BASSES A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAUX. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME VA TRAVERSER DEMAIN LE
SUD DU MALAWI PUIS ATTEINDRE MERCREDI LE NORD DU ZIMBABWE.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, ALORS QU'UNE SITUATION DE COL BAROMETRIQUE SE
PRESENTE AU SUD, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE DE CE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER
LENTEMENT SUR LE SUD DE LA ZAMBIE JUSQU'AU WEEK-END. IL EST POSSIBLE
QUE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE DU SYSTEME SOIT ENCORE DEFINIE
D'ICI LA (DIVERGENCE D'APPRECIATION ENTRE IFS QUI LA MAINTIENT ET GFS
QUI LA DISSIPE QUASI TOTALEMENT).

CONSEQUENCES ATTENDUES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

- MOZAMBIQUE (ET PAYS VOISINS A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES):
VENTS: ATTENUATION GRADUELLE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 6-12H. TOUTEFOIS DES VENTS FORTS AVEC DES RAFALES A 80-100
KM/H SE MAINTIENNENT SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES ET SONT ENTRAIN DE
GAGNER VERS LE SUD JUSQU'A BEIRA. ILS S'ATTENUENT DEMAIN.

PLUIES: DE FREQUENTS CUMULS A 100/150 MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUS LE LONG
DE LA TRAJECTOIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24-30H AVEC LOCALEMENT 200
MM POSSIBLES SUR LES PLATEAUX. CUMULS DE 50 A 100 MM POUR LES
PROCHAINES 24H SUR LA REGION ENTRE QUELIMANE ET BEIRA. CES FORTES
PLUIES INTERESSENT AUSSI UNE GRANDE PARTIE SUD DU MALAWI. AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS, ELLES GAGNENT LE NORD DU ZIMBABWE (MERCREDI)
PUIS LE SUD DE LA ZAMBIE A PARTIR DE JEUDI. DES CUMULS DE PLUIES
LOCALEMENT ABONDANTS Y SERONT POSSIBLES COMPTE TENU DU DEPLACEMENT
LENT DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL.

MER: UNE SURCOTE DE QUELQUES DIZAINES DE CENTIMETRES EST POSSIBLE LA
NUIT PROCHAINE BIEN AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT VERS QUELIMANE ET
BEIRA AVEC UN VENT D'AFFLUX FORT ET PERSISTANT AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 12H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241254
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/1/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 38.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 405 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/25 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 520 SW: 465 NW: 0

24H: 2022/01/25 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/01/26 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/26 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 29.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/27 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 28.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/01/27 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 27.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/01/28 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 25.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/01/29 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 24.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM TOUCHED THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE NEAR THE CITY OF ANGOCHE
AROUND 08Z. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF THE SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION ON
CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY, THE 89 GHZ
AMSUB IMAGERY OF METOP-B AT 0652Z SHOWS A RATHER ILL-DEFINED CENTRAL
CORE ALREADY ENCROACHING ON THE LAND. THE INTENSITY AT THE TIME OF
THE LANDFALL REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 45 KT (PMIN 990 HPA).

DURING THE NEXT 48H, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A FAST MOTION IN
GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION ON THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FACADE OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS SOUTHERN MALAWI TOMORROW AND THEN REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE ON
WEDNESDAY.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, WHILE A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION IS TAKING
PLACE IN THE SOUTH, THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY EVOLVE OVER SOUTHERN ZAMBIA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL DEFINED BY THEN
(DIVERGENCE OF APPRECIATION BETWEEN IFS WHICH MAINTAINS IT AND GFS
WHICH DISSIPATES IT ALMOST TOTALLY).

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :

- MOZAMBIQUE (AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES INLAND):
WINDS: ABATING NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT 6-12H. HOWEVER, STRONG
WINDS GUSTING TO 80-100 KM/H ARE STILL PRESENT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
AND ARE SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO BEIRA. THEY WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW.

RAINS: FREQUENT ACCUMULATIONS OF 100/150 MM IN 24H ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-30H WITH LOCALLY 200 MM POSSIBLE ON
MONTAINOUS AREAS. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF 50 TO 100 MM FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS IN THE AREA BETWEEN QUELIMANE AND BEIRA. THESE HEAVY RAINS ARE
ALSO AFFECTING A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MALAWI. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THEY WILL REACH NORTHERN ZIMBABWE (WEDNESDAY) THEN SOUTHERN
ZAMBIA FROM THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RESIDUAL LOW.

SEA: A SURGE OF A FEW TENS OF CENTIMETERS IS POSSIBLE NEXT NIGHT WELL
SOUTH OF THE IMPACT AREA TOWARDS QUELIMANE AND BEIRA WITH A STRONG
AND PERSISTENT INFLOW WIND DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 241248 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/01/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 38.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 300 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 12 UTC:
16.4 S / 34.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
CORRECTIVE FOR GALE RADII=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 241223
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/01/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 38.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 300 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 12 UTC:
16.4 S / 34.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240649
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/1/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 40.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/01/2022 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 400 SO: 345 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 0

24H: 25/01/2022 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 415 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 25/01/2022 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 33.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 26/01/2022 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 31.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 26/01/2022 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 29.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 27/01/2022 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 28.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

LE SYSTEME PRESENTE TOUJOURS DES SIGNES D'INTENSIFICATION SUR LES 6
DERNIERES HEURES AVEC LA CONSTITUTION D'UNE AMORCE D'OEIL EN BANDE
SUR LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES. LA PRESENTE ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE
EST EN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES (30-40 KT
10 MIN) ET LES ESTIMATIONS ADT ET AIDT PLUS FORTES (50 KT 10-MIN), A
45 KT (STADE SUPERIEUR DE LA TEMPETE MODEREE).

LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST SUD-OUEST L'EFFET DU
FLUX DIRECTEUR DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE INDUIT PAR LA CELLULE
DE HAUTES PRESSIONS PRA SENTES SUR LA SUD DU CANAL, ET DEVRAIT
REDRESSER LEGEREMENT EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
POUSSE DES HAUTES PRESSIONS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LE DIRIGE VERS
LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES QU'ELLE ATTEINDRA DANS LES TOUTES PROCHAINES
HEURES.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENSUITE POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE, PUIS LE SUD DU
MALAWI EN FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE.
LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURS
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, DONT LA DISPERSION EST FAIBLE PAR RAPPORT AUX
RESEAUX PRECEDENTS, INDUISANT UNE ASSEZ BONNE CONFIANCE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME A RETROUVE DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUS FAVORABLES POUR SON DEVELOPPEMENT :
UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DANS LE NORD DU CANAL COMBINE A UNE
BONNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES ENTRE LE FLUX DE MOUSSON AU NORD
DU CANAL ET UN FLUX DE SUD REMONTANT DANS LA PARTIE SUD DU CANAL.
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TROPOSPHERIQUE HUMIDE, AVEC UN BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET UN CANAL D'EVACUATION EQUATORIAL, CE SYSTEME POURRAIT
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVANT DE TOUCHER TERRE.

UNE FOIS ENTRE SUR TERRE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DES VENTS DU
SYSTEME, LAISSERA CEPENDANT DES VENTS SOUTENUS DE NORD A NORD-EST LE
LONG DE LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE JUSQU'A MARDI ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE.

CONSEQUENCES ATTENDUES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- MADAGASCAR : LE TEMPS S'AMELIORE LENTEMENT MAIS DES PLUIES
ADDITIONNELLES DE L'ORDRE DE 50 A LOC 100 MM SONT ENCORES POSSIBLES
SUR LA REGION NORD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE MAJUNGA ET LE CAP
SAINT-ANDRE. LES VENTS ENCORE ASSEZ FORTS AVEC DES RAFALES A 80-90
KM/H DANS LA REGION DE CAP SAINT-ANDRE CE MATIN, BAISSE
GRADUELLEMENT AUJOURD'HUI, PLUS FRANCHEMENT LA NUIT PROCHAINE.

- MOZAMBIQUE (ET PAYS VOISINS A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES):
VENTS: RAFALES COTIERES DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 130 KM/H POSSIBLES DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES AU VOISINAGE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE (VERS LA
VILLE D'ANGOCHE). CETTE NUIT, DES VENTS FORTS AVEC DES RAFALES A
80-100 KM/H, GAGNENT LA ZONE COTIERE ENTRE QUELIMANE ET BEIRA.

PLUIES: PLUIES INTENSES (POUVANT DONNER DES CUMULS DE 100 MM EN
QUELQUES HEURES) DANS LES PROCAHINES HEURES A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'IMPACT. UNE FOIS A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES, DE FREQUENTS CUMULS A
100/150 MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUS LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 24-30H AVEC LOCALEMENT 200 MM POSSIBLES SUR LES
PLATEAUX. CES FORTES PLUIES GAGNENT AINSI UNE GRANDE MOITIE SUD DU
MALAWI LA NUIT PROCHAINE.

MER: UNE ELEVATION ANORMALE DE LA MER DE QUELQUES CENTIMETRES (10 CM)
EST ATTENDUE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT. UNE SURCOTE DE QUELQUES
DIZAINES DE CENTIMETRES EST POSSIBLE LA NUIT PROCHAINE BIEN AU SUD DE
LA ZONE D'IMPACT VERS QUELIMANE ET BEIRA AVEC UN VENT D'AFFLUX FORT
ET PERSISTANT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/1/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 40.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 61 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/24 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 400 SW: 345 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 0

24H: 2022/01/25 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 415 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/01/25 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 33.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/26 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 31.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/26 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 29.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/01/27 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 28.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
WITH THE FORMATION OF A BANDING EYE ON THE VERY LAST IMAGES. THE
PRESENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES (30-40 KT 10-MIN) AND THE STRONGER ADT AND AIDT
ESTIMATES (50 KT 10-MIN), AT 45 KT (UPPER STAGE OF THE MODERATE
STORM).

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTH-WEST UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE LOW AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW INDUCED BY THE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL PRESENT ON THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL, AND SHOULD
STRAIGHTEN UP SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF A HIGH
PRESSURE PUSH TO THE SOUTH. THIS TRAJECTORY DIRECTS IT TOWARDS THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTS WHICH IT WILL REACH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE, THEN SOUTH OF MALAWI LATE NEXT NIGHT.
THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NETWORKS,
INDUCING A FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM HAS FOUND MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT:
A STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH OF THE CHANNEL COMBINED WITH
A GOOD CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS BETWEEN THE MONSOON FLOW IN THE
NORTH OF THE CHANNEL AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RISING IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CHANNEL.
IN A HUMID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, WITH A GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE
AND AN EQUATORIAL EVACUATION CHANNEL, THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH THE
STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.

ONCE ON LAND, THE PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE WINDS OF THE SYSTEM,
WILL HOWEVER LEAVE SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
MOZAMBICAN COAST UNTIL TUESDAY QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTER.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON THE INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : THE WEATHER IS SLOWLY IMPROVING BUT ADDITIONAL RAINS
OF THE ORDER OF 50 TO 100 MM ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTH-WESTERN REGION OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN MAJUNGA AND CAP
SAINT-ANDRE. WINDS STILL QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS TO 80-90 KM/H IN THE
CAPE SAINT-ANDRE AREA THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY DECREASING TODAY, MORE
FRANKLY NEXT NIGHT.

- MOZAMBIQUE (AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES INLAND):
WINDS: COASTAL GUSTS IN THE ORDER OF 100 TO 130 KM/H POSSIBLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE (TOWARDS THE CITY
OF ANGOCHE). TONIGHT, STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 80-100 KM/H, WILL
REACH THE COASTAL AREA BETWEEN QUELIMANE AND BEIRA.

RAINS: INTENSE RAINS (UP TO 100 MM IN A FEW HOURS) IN THE NEXT HOURS
NEAR THE IMPACT AREA. ONCE INLAND, FREQUENT ACCUMULATIONS OF 100/150
MM IN 24H ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAJECTORY DURING THE NEXT 24-30H
WITH LOCALLY 200 MM POSSIBLE ON THE PLATEAUS. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL
REACH A LARGE SOUTHERN HALF OF MALAWI DURING THE NIGHT.

SEA: AN ABNORMAL SEA RISE OF A FEW CENTIMETERS (10 CM) IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE IMPACT AREA. A SURGE OF A FEW TENS OF CENTIMETERS IS
POSSIBLE NEXT NIGHT WELL SOUTH OF THE IMPACT AREA TOWARDS QUELIMANE
AND BEIRA WITH A STRONG AND PERSISTENT INFLOW WIND DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240643 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/01/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 40.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/24 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
CORRECTIVE FOR ADDING CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240628
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/01/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANA) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 40.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/24 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 220124010916
2022012400 07S ANA 002 01 265 12 SATL 060
T000 158S 0421E 045 R034 065 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 159S 0395E 045 R034 065 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 160S 0369E 035 R034 065 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 162S 0345E 025
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 42.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 42.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.9S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.0S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 34.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 41.5E.
24JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.
//
0722011900 118S 572E 15
0722011906 119S 579E 15
0722011912 123S 586E 15
0722011918 128S 590E 20
0722012000 135S 591E 20
0722012006 141S 587E 25
0722012012 146S 588E 25
0722012018 149S 587E 30
0722012100 154S 580E 30
0722012106 158S 575E 30
0722012112 164S 566E 30
0722012118 170S 546E 30
0722012200 175S 525E 30
0722012206 178S 504E 30
0722012212 175S 484E 30
0722012218 172S 469E 25
0722012300 164S 459E 25
0722012306 158S 452E 30
0722012312 157S 444E 35
0722012318 157S 433E 35
0722012400 158S 421E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 42.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 42.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.9S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.0S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 34.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 41.5E.
24JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240048
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/1/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1 S / 42.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/01/2022 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 120

24H: 25/01/2022 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 25/01/2022 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 26/01/2022 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 32.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 26/01/2022 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 30.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU
SYSTEME S'EST AMELIOREE, AMENANT LE SYSTEME A ETRE BAPTISE A 20UTC.
L'ANIMATION SATELLITE ET LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES GMI DE
2247Z, MONTRENT LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE AU DESSUS
DU CENTRE ET UNE STRUCTURE EN BI QUI ATTEINT MAINTENANT UN PEU PLUS
D'UNE DEMI TOUR.

LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE ACTUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST SUD-OUEST L'EFFET DU
FLUX DIRECTEUR DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE INDUIT PAR LA CELLULE
DE HAUTES PRESSIONS PRA SENTES SUR LA SUD DU CANAL, ET DEVRAIT
REDRESSER LEGEREMENT EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
POUSSE DES HAUTES PRESSIONS AU SUD. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LE DIRIGE VERS
LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES QU'ELLE ATTEINDRA EN FIN DE MATINEE UN PEU
APRES 06UTC.
LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE VERS L'OUEST PUIS L'OUEST
SUD-OUEST, A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. PUIS LE SUD DU
MALAWI.
LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURS
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES, DONT LA DISPERSION EST FAIBLE PAR RAPPORT AUX
RESEAUX PRECEDENTS, INDUISANT UNE ASSEZ BONNE CONFIANCE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE MENANT AU MOZAMBIQUE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME A RETROUVE DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUS FAVORABLES POUR SON DEVELOPPEMENT :
UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DANS LE NORD DU CANAL COMBINE A UNE
BONNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES ENTRE LE FLUX DE MOUSSON AU NORD
DU CANAL ET UN FLUX DE SUD REMONTANT DANS LA PARTIE SUD DU CANAL.
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TROPOSPHERIQUE HUMIDE, AVEC UN BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET UN CANAL D'EVACUATION EQUATORIAL, CE SYSTEME EST PREVU
SE CREUSER ASSEZ RAPIDE.
IL EST ENVISAGE UN DEVELOPPEMENT RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE POUR ATTEINDRE
LE STADE MINIMAL DE FORTE TEMPA TE TROPICAL JUSTE AVANT
L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES.
UNE FOIS ENTRE SUR TERRE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DES VENTS DU
SYSTEME, LAISSERA CEPENDANT DES VENTS SOUTENUS DE NORD A NORD-EST LE
LONG DE LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE JUSQU'A MARDI ASSEZ LOIN DU CENTRE.

CONSEQUENCES ATTENDUES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- MADAGASCAR : LES FORTES PLUIES DEJA PRESENTES SUR LES REGIONS
NORD-OUEST DE L'ILE, VONT SE POURSUIVRE LUNDI PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LES
REGIONS COTIERES DU NORD-OUEST. DE FORTES RAFALES SONT POSSIBLE SUR
L'OUEST ENTRE MAHAJANGA ET MAINTIRANO JUSQU'A DEMAIN DANS LE SILLAGE
DU SYSTA ME.
- MOZAMBIQUE (ET PAYS VOISINS A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES): RAFALES
COTIERES DE PLUS DE 110/120 KM/H POSSIBLES CETTE NUIT ET SURTOUT EN
JOURNA E DE LUNDI AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE DU SYSTEME ENTRE
QUELIMANE ET L'ILE DU MOZAMBIQUE. CUMULS DE PLUIE IMPORTANTS AU NORD
DE BEIRA DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS PUIS PLUS LOIN DANS LES TERRES
JUSQU'AU SUD DU MALAWI EN DEBORDANT JUSQUE SUR LE CENTRE DU
MOZAMBIQUE.
UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 40/50CM EST ATTENDUE ENTRE ANTIOCHE ET
BEIRA (VOIRE 60/80CM DANS LA REGION DE BEIRA LUNDI ET MARDI)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240048
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/1/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANA)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 42.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/24 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 120

24H: 2022/01/25 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/01/25 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/01/26 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 32.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/01/26 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 30.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVED, LEADING THE SYSTEM TO BE NAMED AT 20UTC. THE SATELLITE
ANIMATION AND THE LAST GMI MICROWAVE DATA OF 2247Z, SHOW THE
RECONSTRUCTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ABOVE THE CENTER AND A BI
STRUCTURE OF A LITTLE REACHING NOW A LITTLE MORE THAN HALF A TURN.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF
THE LOW AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOW INDUCED BY THE HIGH
PRESSURE CELL PRESENT ON THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL, AND SHOULD
STRAIGHTEN UP SLIGHTLY WESTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF A HIGH PRESSURE
PUSH TO THE SOUTH. THIS TRAJECTORY DIRECTS IT TOWARDS THE MOZAMBICAN
COASTS WHICH IT WILL REACH AT THE END OF THE MORNING, A LITTLE AFTER
06UTC.
THE DEPRESSION ON LAND SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WEST THEN THE WEST
SOUTH-WEST, INLAND OF MOZAMBIQUE. THEN SOUTHERN MALAWI.
THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION IS LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NETWORKS,
INDUCING A FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE TRAJECTORY LEADING TO
MOZAMBIQUE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM HAS FOUND MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT:
A STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL
COMBINED WITH A GOOD CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS BETWEEN THE MONSOON
FLOW IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RISING
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL.
IN A HUMID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, WITH A GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE
AND AN EQUATORIAL EVACUATION CHANNEL, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TO DEEPEN QUITE RAPIDLY.
IT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RELATIVELY QUICKLY TO REACH THE MINIMUM
STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST BEFORE LANDING ON THE
MOZAMBICAN COAST.
ONCE ON LAND, THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM'S WINDS, HOWEVER,
WILL LEAVE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
MOZAMBICAN COAST UNTIL TUESDAY QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTER.

EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : HEAVY RAINS ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
REGIONS OF THE ISLAND, WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COASTAL REGIONS. STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST
BETWEEN MAHAJANGA AND MAINTIRANO UNTIL TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MOZAMBIQUE (AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES INLAND): COASTAL GUSTS OF
MORE THAN 110/120 KM/H POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL LAND BETWEEN QUELIMANE AND MOZAMBIQUE
ISLAND. IMPORTANT RAINFALL TOTALS NORTH OF BEIRA AT FIRST THEN
FURTHER INLAND TO THE SOUTH OF MALAWI AND OVERFLOWING TO THE CENTER
OF MOZAMBIQUE.
A SURGE OF ABOUT 40/50CM IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ANTIOCHE AND BEIRA (EVEN
60/80CM IN THE BEIRA AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240017
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/01/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 42.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 450NM IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 124 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/24 AT 12 UTC:
16.1 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/25 AT 00 UTC:
15.7 S / 36.5 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 07S SIO 220123133249
2022012312 07S SEVEN 001 01 285 09 SATL 040
T000 155S 0442E 035 R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 152S 0415E 045 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 152S 0388E 040 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 153S 0362E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.2S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.2S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.3S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 43.5E.
23JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
0722011900 118S 572E 15
0722011906 119S 579E 15
0722011912 123S 586E 15
0722011918 128S 590E 20
0722012000 135S 591E 20
0722012006 141S 587E 25
0722012012 146S 588E 25
0722012018 149S 587E 30
0722012100 154S 580E 30
0722012106 158S 575E 30
0722012112 164S 566E 30
0722012118 170S 546E 30
0722012200 175S 525E 30
0722012206 178S 504E 30
0722012212 175S 484E 30
0722012218 172S 469E 25
0722012300 164S 459E 25
0722012306 157S 451E 30
0722012312 155S 442E 35
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Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222051ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.2S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.2S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.3S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 43.5E.
23JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 222100).//
NNNN

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