Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for CLIFF-22 Off-shore from 04 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC to 06 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for CLIFF-22

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

06/02 20:12 WTXS32PGTW062100

06/02 08:10 WTXS32PGTW060900

05/02 20:10 WTXS32PGTW052100

05/02 12:33 WTIO31FMEE051232

05/02 12:33 WTIO30FMEE051232

05/02 12:30 WTIO20FMEE051230

05/02 08:18 WTXS32PGTW050900

05/02 07:22 WTIO31FMEE050717

05/02 07:22 WTIO30FMEE050717

05/02 06:52 WTIO20FMEE050649

05/02 01:27 WTIO31FMEE050126

05/02 01:27 WTIO30FMEE050126

05/02 00:35 WTIO20FMEE050034

04/02 21:08 WTXS32PGTW042100COR

04/02 20:24 WTXS32PGTW042100

04/02 19:33 WTIO31FMEE041900

04/02 19:33 WTIO30FMEE041900

04/02 18:26 WTIO20FMEE041825

04/02 08:33 WTXS32PGTW040900

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 23.2S 78.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 78.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.7S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 78.2E.
06FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SHORTWAVE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 061705Z
MODIS TERRA INFRARED IMAGE, WHICH ELIMIATED THE LIMB ISSUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE METEOSAT-8 AND HIMWARI-8 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT A GENEROUS 35 KNOTS, IN LINE
WITH EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND THE ADT ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 10S IS STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT SPINS
DOWN, HAVING BEEN OVERWHELMED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG VERTICAL WINDS
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER DIPPING BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING
THRESHOLD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061800Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 22.5S 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 80.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.5S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 24.2S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 79.5E.
06FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1023
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 82.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 82.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.7S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.3S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.7S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 82.3E.
05FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1031
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051232
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/3/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 83.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 685 SO: 610 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 390 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2022 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 390 NO: 95

24H: 06/02/2022 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SO: 350 NO: 0

36H: 07/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 07/02/2022 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 08/02/2022 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 08/02/2022 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

DEPUIS CE MATIN, LE CENTRE EST DEVENU DE PLUS EN PLUS EXPOSE AVEC UNE
CONVECTION RESIDUELLE PRESENTE UNIQUEMENT DANS LA CONVERGENCE
SYNOPTIQUE PRESENTE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. DES VENTS ATTEIGNANTS ENCORE
LES 35 KT SONT ESTIMES TOUJOURS SOUFFLES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD MAIS
UNIQUEMENT PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS
SUBTROPICALES.

LE CENTRE, MAINTENANT CLAIREMENT VISIBLE, A ETE RECALE PLUS A L'EST.
CLIFF SE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE
DORSALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE A L'EST. EN COURS DE
NUIT, C'EST LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE QUI EST AU
SUD QUI REPREND LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EMMENANT LE SYSTEME SUR
UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST.

LA FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION QUI A PERMIS A CE SYSTEME D'ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE BAPTEME EST MAINTENANT DEFINITIVEMENT REFERMEE. L'AIR SEC DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EMMENEE PAR LA HAUSSE TEMPORAIRE DE CISAILLEMENT
LA NUIT DERNIERE, S'INSTALLE DURABLEMENT AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE ET
DEVRAIT CONTRECARRER TOUTES VELLEITES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS.

UN MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL DEVRAIT PERSISTER JUSQU'EN COURS
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE AVEC DES VENTS DE 30 KT PUIS 25/30 KT PRESENT
PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION.
IL CONTINUE D'ETRE SUIVI AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS AU SEIN DU
BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN AWIO21.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051232
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20212022
1.A FILLING UP 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 83.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 685 SW: 610 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 390 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 390 NW: 95

24H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 350 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

SINCE THIS MORNING, THE CENTER HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE EXPOSED WITH
A RESIDUAL CONVECTION PRESENT ONLY IN THE SYNOPTIC CONVERGENCE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED TO
REACH 35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT ONLY BY GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.

THE CENTER, NOW CLEARLY VISIBLE, HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER EAST.
CLIFF IS MOVING IN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A RIDGE OF LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERE PRESENT TO THE EAST. DURING THE
NIGHT, IT IS THE LOW LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS IN THE SOUTH
WHICH TAKES AGAIN THE HAND ON THE DIRECTING FLOW TAKING THE SYSTEM ON
A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.

THE WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION THAT ALLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CHRISTENING STAGE IS NOW DEFINITIVELY CLOSED. THE DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE
AIR DRIVEN BY THE TEMPORARY INCREASE IN SHEAR LAST NIGHT IS SETTLING
IN OVER THE CENTER AND SHOULD THWART ANY REINTENSIFICATION EFFORTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL NEXT WEEK WITH
WINDS OF 30 KT THEN 25/30 KT PRESENT BY GRADIENT EFFECT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE AWIO20
DAILY BULLETIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051230
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 05/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 3 (CLIFF) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 83.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 350 MN FROM THE CENTER ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 330 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 370 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
21.1 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
21.5 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.1S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.9S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.6S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.2S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 83.4E.
05FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 985
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050717
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/3/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3 S / 83.7 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 685 SO: 630 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 425 NO: 0

24H: 06/02/2022 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 380 NO: 0

36H: 06/02/2022 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SO: 305 NO: 0

48H: 07/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 0

60H: 07/02/2022 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 280 NO: 0

72H: 08/02/2022 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 345 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2022 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5+

DURANT LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT DEGRADEE AVEC UNE CONVECTION REJETEE LOIN AU SUD DU
SYSTEME METTANT BIEN EVIDENCE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES.
L'INTENSITE EST REDUITE A 35 KT PRESENT UNIQUEMENT DANS LE SECTEUR
SUD DE CENTRE.

CLIFF SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT A COURT TERME, PUIS S'ORIENTERA PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT UN PEU CES PROCHAINS
JOURS, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS GENERES PAR PLUSIEURS AXES
DE DORSALES DANS LES SECTEURS EST ET SUD DU SYSTEME, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE PRENANT DE PLUS EN PLUS LA MAIN SUR
LE FLUX DIRECTEUR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PREVU DU SYSTEME. SA
TRAJECTOIRE LE LAISSE LOIN DES TERRES HABITEES.

LA FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION QUI A PERMIS A CE SYSTEME D'ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE BAPTEME EST REFERMEE, SOUS LES EFFETS DE LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD PUIS NORD-OUEST, FORCANT L'INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC PRESENT DANS L'OUEST DU SYSTEME, CE QUI DEVRAIT L'AFFAIBLIR
DURABLEMENT. UN MINIMUM DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL DEVRAIT PERSISTER
JUSQU'EN COURS DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE AVEC DES VENTS DE 30 KT PRESENT
PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050717
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/3/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 83.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 685 SW: 630 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 425 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 380 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 280 NW: 0

72H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 345 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED
WITH CONVECTION REJECTED FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT PRESENT
ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.

CLIFF IS MOVING SLOWLY IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN WILL MOVE MORE
STRONGLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, ACCELERATING A LITTLE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STEERING FLOWS GENERATED BY SEVERAL
RIDGE AXES IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTORS OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
THE LOW TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TAKING MORE AND MORE CONTROL
OVER THE STEERING FLOW AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. ITS
TRAJECTORY LEAVES IT FAR FROM THE INHABITED LANDS.

THE WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION THAT ALLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CHRISTENING STAGE IS CLOSED, UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE INCREASE OF THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST SHEAR, FORCING THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN IT DURABLY. A
RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL NEXT WEEK WITH
WINDS OF 30 KT PRESENT BY GRADIENT EFFECT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050649
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 05/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CLIFF) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 83.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 350 MN FROM THE CENTER ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 340 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 370 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 18 UTC:
20.2 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
20.9 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050126
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/3/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 83.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SO: 405 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 470 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 195 NO: 0

24H: 06/02/2022 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 350 NO: 0

36H: 06/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

48H: 07/02/2022 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

60H: 07/02/2022 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

72H: 08/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2022 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

120H: 10/02/2022 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5;CI=3.0-

DURANT LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
DEGRADEE AVEC UNE CONVECTION MOINS ORGANISEE ET SE DEPORTANT
DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD DU SYSTEME SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE HAUSSE PROBABLE
DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD. PAR INERTIE, L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENUE A 40KT MAIS L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST IMMINENT.

CLIFF SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST A COURT TERME, PUIS
S'ORIENTERA PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT UN
PEU CES PROCHAINS JOURS, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS GENERES
PAR PLUSIEURS AXES DE DORSALES DANS LES SECTEURS EST ET SUD DU
SYSTEME, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE PRENANT DE PLUS
EN PLUS LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PREVU DU
SYSTEME. SA TRAJECTOIRE LE LAISSE LOIN DES TERRES HABITEES.

LA FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION QUI A PERMIS A CE SYSTEME D'ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE BAPTEME EST PROBABLEMENT DEJA EN TRAIN DE SE REFERMER, SOUS
LES EFFETS DE LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD PUIS
NORD-OUEST, FORCANT L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC PRESENT DANS L'OUEST DU
SYSTEME, CE QUI DEVRAIT L'AFFAIBLIR DURABLEMENT. UN MINIMUM
DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESIDUEL DEVRAIT PERSISTER JUSQU'EN COURS DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE AVEC DES VENTS DE 20/25KT PAR EFFET DE GRADIENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050126
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/3/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 83.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SW: 405 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 470 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 195 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 350 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

48H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

60H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

120H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5;CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLIFF'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AND
THE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALMOST GONE AS CONVECTION IS BEING CLEARLY
OFFSET SOUTHWARD UNDER THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND
SHEAR. INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40KT BECAUSE OF THE CIRCULATION'S INERTIA
BUT SHOULD SOON DECREASE.

CLIFF IS MOVING SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH-WESTWARD THIS SATURDAY THEN WILL
MOVE MORE FRANKLY TO THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST WHILE ACCELERATING IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF STEERING FLOWS
GENERATED BY SEVERAL RIDGES SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM ON ITS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTORS. THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL END UP BEING
THE MAIN DRIVER NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS. ITS
FORECAST LEAVES IT FAR FROM FROM INHABITED LANDS.

THE SHORT-LIVED WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION WHICH ALLOWED TROPICAL
STORM CLIFF TO FORM SHOULD CLOSE FAIRLY QUICKLY. FROM THIS SATURDAY
ONWARDS, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD FORCE INTRUSION OF DRY
AIR FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD WEAKEN IT DURABLY.
A REMNANT LOW SHOULD PERSIST NEXT WEEK, WITH REMAINING 20/25KT WINDS
IN ITS SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BY GRADIENT EFFECT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050034
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 05/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CLIFF) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 83.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 100 MN RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY
TO 230 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
20.2 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 042100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 83.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 83.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.1S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.6S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.2S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.4S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.7S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 83.5E.
04FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 947 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTED THE HOURLY UPDATES FREQUENCY OF 08S IN
REMARKS.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 83.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 83.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.1S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.6S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.2S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.4S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.7S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 83.5E.
04FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 947 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041900
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/3/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 04/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.7 S / 83.5 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 405 SO: 480 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 415 SO: 415 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 100

24H: 05/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 435 SO: 415 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 100

36H: 06/02/2022 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 445 SO: 415 NO: 140

48H: 06/02/2022 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 07/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 07/02/2022 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

DURANT LES 6 A 12 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A CONTINUE A SE
DEVELOPPER A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DEPRESSIONNAIRE, S'ORGANISANT EN
BANDE INCURVEE. LES PASSES AMSR2 DE 0759Z ET SSMIS DE 1303Z
CONFIRMENT CE GAIN EN ORGANISATION AVEC UN BEL ENROULEMENT DES BANDES
CONVECTIVES. LA FAUCHEE ASCAT DE 1626Z MONTRE UN AXE DE VENTS DE 35 A
40KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LA DEPRESSION TROPICALE 03-20212022 A
AINSI ETE REHAUSSEE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ET BAPTISEE
CLIFF A 1430UTC PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN. UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK (DT ENTRE 2.5 ET 3.0 BASE SUR UNE
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE) ET LES MESURES ASCAT NOUS PERMETTENT
D'ESTIMER LES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE CLIFF A 40KT, LOCALISES DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

CLIFF SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST A COURT TERME, PUIS
S'ORIENTERA PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST A OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
ACCELERANT CES PROCHAINS JOURS, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
GENERES PAR PLUSIEURS AXES DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DANS LES SECTEURS
NORD-EST, SUD-EST ET SUD DU SYSTEME. SA TRAJECTOIRE LE LAISSE LOIN
DES TERRES HABITEES.

LA FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION EN COURS, ASSOCIEE ENTRE AUTRES A UNE
BONNE DIVERGENCE EN MARGE D'UN JET EN APPROCHE, ET QUI A PERMIS A LA
TEMPETE CLIFF DE SE FORMER, DEVRAIT ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT SE REFERMER. A
PARTIR DE CE SAMEDI, L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST, FORCANT L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC PRESENT DANS L'OUEST DU
SYSTEME, DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR DURABLEMENT LE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041900
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CLIFF)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 83.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 405 SW: 480 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 415 SW: 415 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 100

24H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 435 SW: 415 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 100

36H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 445 SW: 415 NW: 140

48H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE LOW'S CENTER, EVOLVING INTO A CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE 0759Z
AMSR2 AND 1303Z SSMIS PASSES CONFIRM THIS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THE
1626Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WIND AXIS REACHING UP TO 40KT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03-20212022 HAS THUS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND NAMED CLIFF AT 1430UTC BY
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS (DT BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0 BASED ON A CURVED BAND
PATTERN) AND ASCAT MEASUREMENTS ENABLES US TO ESTIMATE CLIFF'S
MAXIMUM WINDS AT 40KT, LOCATED IN ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

CLIFF IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN
WILL MOVE MORE FRANKLY TO THE SOUTH-WEST TO WEST-SOUTH-WEST WHILE
ACCELERATING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STEERING
FLOWS GENERATED BY SEVERAL RIDGES SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM ON ITS
NORTH-EAST, SOUTH-EAST AND SOUTH SECTORS. ITS TRACK LEAVES IT FAR
FROM INHABITED LANDS.

THE CURRENT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION ASSOCIATED AMONG OTHER THINGS
WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING JET, AND WHICH
ALLOWED TROPICAL STORM CLIFF TO FORM, SHOULD CLOSE FAIRLY QUICKLY.
FROM THIS SATURDAY ONWARDS, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
FORCE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURABLY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 041825
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 04/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CLIFF) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 83.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 100 MN RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 260 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 06 UTC:
19.2 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 18 UTC:
19.8 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI/040751ZFEB2022//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 83.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 83.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.8S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.6S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.4S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.2S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.7S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.0S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.1S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 83.8E.
04FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 921 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 040300).//
NNNN

>

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