Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DUMAKO-22 in Madagascar from 13 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC to 15 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DUMAKO-22

in Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

16/02 01:13 WTIO31FMEE160106

16/02 01:13 WTIO30FMEE160106

15/02 21:53 WTXS51PGTW152100

15/02 21:51 WTXS31PGTW152100

15/02 18:37 WTIO31FMEE151831

15/02 18:37 WTIO30FMEE151831

15/02 18:24 WTIO24FMEE151819

15/02 12:15 WTIO31FMEE151214

15/02 12:15 WTIO30FMEE151214

15/02 12:15 WTIO24FMEE151212

15/02 08:01 WTXS51PGTW150900

15/02 08:00 WTXS31PGTW150900

15/02 06:25 WTIO31FMEE150625

15/02 06:25 WTIO30FMEE150625

15/02 06:08 WTIO22FMEE150606

15/02 01:04 WTIO31FMEE150035

15/02 01:04 WTIO30FMEE150035

15/02 00:17 WTIO22FMEE150016

14/02 20:19 WTXS51PGTW142100

14/02 20:18 WTXS31PGTW142100

14/02 19:40 WTIO31FMEE141848

14/02 19:40 WTIO30FMEE141848

14/02 18:28 WTIO22FMEE141827

14/02 13:29 WTIO31FMEE141237

14/02 13:29 WTIO30FMEE141237

14/02 12:13 WTIO22FMEE141210

14/02 07:50 WTXS51PGTW140900

14/02 07:47 WTXS31PGTW140900

14/02 07:42 WTIO31FMEE140652

14/02 07:42 WTIO30FMEE140652

14/02 06:33 WTIO22FMEE140628

14/02 00:17 WTIO31FMEE140015

14/02 00:17 WTIO30FMEE140015

14/02 00:00 WTIO22FMEE140000

13/02 20:07 WTXS51PGTW132100

13/02 20:04 WTXS31PGTW132100

13/02 18:31 WTIO31FMEE131819

13/02 18:31 WTIO30FMEE131819

13/02 18:02 WTIO22FMEE131759

13/02 07:55 WTXS51PGTW130900

13/02 07:55 WTXS31PGTW130900

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160106
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/4/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 47.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 17/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

36H: 17/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 18/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 18/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 19/02/2022 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

DEPUIS L'ATTERRISSAGE DE DUMAKO, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
CONSIDERABLEMENT DEGRADEE A TEL POINT QU'IL EST DIFFICILE A PRESENT
DE DETECTER UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
MAINTENUE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, ASSOCIA A
UNE FORTE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE, MAIS DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE S'EST CONSIDERABLEMENT AFFAIBLIE. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNES
OBJECTIVES CONCRETES, L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST BAISSE A 25KT,
COMPTE TENU DE L'EVOLUTION DU SYSTEME SUR TERRE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DEFINIT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PRINCIPAL DE DUMAKO. BIEN QUE
LES DERNIERES SORTIE NUMERIQUES SUGGERENT UNE RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME
DANS LE NORD DU CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT CONSERVER UNE FORME TRES AFFAIBLIE EVOLUANT VERS LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI JEUDI OU VENDREDI PROCHAIN.

DUMAKO NE PRESENTE ACTUELLEMENT PLUS D'ORGANISATION BIEN MARQUA E SUR
LES TERRES DE MADAGASCAR. LE RISQUE D'UNE INTENSIFICATION ULTERIEURE
DANS LE CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE SEMBLE MARGINAL, AU VU DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES NON FAVORABLES A VENIR. A PRECISER QUE CE SCENARIO
RESTE TRES DEPENDANT DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES MARQUEE APRES SA TRAVERSEE SUR LA GRANDE ILE, CE QUI SEMBLE
NE PAS ETRE LE CAS ACTUELLEMENT.

IMPACTS ATTENDUES SUR MADAGASCAR:
LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST ESSENTIELLEMENT
PLUVIEUSE SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR, NOTAMMENT DANS LA ZONE AU
SUD DE L'ILE DE SAINTE MARIE, AVEC DE FORTES PLUIES ATTENDUES ENTRE
LE CAP MASOALA ET TOAMASINA: 150-250MM SUR LA ZONE PROCHE DU
LITTORAL, POUVANT DEPASSER LES 300MM SUR LE RELIEF EN 24H.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTANT PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES,
CECI EST DONC LE DERNIER BULLETIN DE SUIVI, SAUF EVENTUELLE
RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160106
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/4/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 47.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/16 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/02/17 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2022/02/17 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/02/18 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/18 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/02/19 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

SINCE THE LANDING OF DUMAKO, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEGRADED
CONSIDERABLY TO THE POINT THAT IT IS NOW DIFFICULT TO DETECT A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS MAINTAINED
AT FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY, BUT SINCE A FEW HOURS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. IN THE LACK OF CONCRETE OBJECTIVE DATA,
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 25KT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM ON THE GROUND.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK PREDICTION, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEFINES
THE MAIN STEERING FLOW OF DUMAKO. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NUMERICAL
OUTPUT SUGGESTS AN EXIT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL BY MIDWEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN A VERY WEAKENED FORM
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST BY NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

DUMAKO IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED OVER MADAGASCAR. THE RISK OF
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SEEMS MARGINAL,
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO COME. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS OPTION IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PERSISTENCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AFTER CROSSING THE ISLAND, WHICH
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE CASE AT PRESENT.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR:
THE DETERIORATION OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS ESSENTIALLY RAINY
ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND OF SAINT MARIE, WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN CAPE MASOALA
AND TOAMASINA: 150-250MM ON THE AREA CLOSE TO THE COAST, WHICH CAN
EXCEED 300MM IN 24H ON THE HILLS.

AS THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS, THIS
IS THE LAST WARNING, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RE-INTENSIFICATION, IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 220215202137
2022021518 12S DUMAKO 006 01 265 11 SATL 060
T000 171S 0484E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 168S 0461E 025
T024 166S 0439E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 48.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 48.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.8S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.6S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 47.8E.
15FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (DUMAKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 12S MADE LANDFALL AT 151200Z
AND IS NOW TRACKING OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 151541Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT RAPID WEAKENING WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WEAK BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE REMNANTS TRACKING OVER WATER NEAR TAU 24. THE
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
1222021018 113S 622E 15
1222021100 117S 628E 15
1222021106 121S 631E 15
1222021112 123S 627E 15
1222021118 124S 625E 25
1222021200 128S 630E 25
1222021206 137S 629E 25
1222021212 141S 624E 25
1222021218 142S 620E 30
1222021300 146S 615E 30
1222021306 149S 608E 35
1222021312 154S 597E 40
1222021318 157S 583E 45
1222021400 161S 568E 50
1222021400 161S 568E 50
1222021406 165S 552E 50
1222021406 165S 552E 50
1222021412 166S 542E 45
1222021418 167S 530E 45
1222021500 169S 519E 45
1222021506 169S 504E 45
1222021512 170S 495E 40
1222021518 171S 484E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 48.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 48.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.8S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.6S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 47.8E.
15FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (DUMAKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 12S MADE LANDFALL AT 151200Z
AND IS NOW TRACKING OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 151541Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT RAPID WEAKENING WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WEAK BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE REMNANTS TRACKING OVER WATER NEAR TAU 24. THE
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151831
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/4/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 48.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1005 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 16/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

36H: 17/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 17/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 18/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 18/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

DUMAKO A ATTERRI SUR LA COTE EST MALGACHE EN FIN D'APRA S-MIDI, EN
PASSANT AU NIVEAU DE L'ILE DE SAINTE-MARIE. LE SYSTEME A GENERE LORS
DE SON ATTERRISSAGE DE FORTES BOUFFEES CONVECTIVES, ASSOCIEES
PONCTUELLEMENT A UNE FORTE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE SUR LA PROVINCE
D'ANALANJIROFO. L'INTENSITA DU SYSTEME EST ESTIMEE A 30KT, GRACE AUX
OBSERVATIONS FOURNIES PAR LA STATION DE TAMATAVE. DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT LOGIQUEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR A MESURE QU'IL
ENTRE DANS LES TERRES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DEFINIT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PRINCIPAL DE DUMAKO. LES
DERNIERES SORTIE DE MODELE SUGGERENT ENCORE UNE RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME
DANS LE NORD DU CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, SOUS UNE
FORME TRES AFFAIBLIE. LES RESTES DE CETTE CIRCULATION POURRAIT SE
DEPLACER VERS LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI JEUDI PROCHAIN

DUMAKOA A DONC ATTERRI AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. DANS
L'EVENTUALITE D'UNE RESSORTIE DANS LE CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE SUGGEREE
PAR LES DERNIERS MODELES NUMERIQUES, LE RISQUE D'UNE NOUVELLE
INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE ENCORE ASSEZ MARGINAL, AU VU DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES NON FAVORABLES. A NOTER QUE CE SCENARIO RESTE TRES
DEPENDANT DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
MARQUEE APRES SA TRAVERSEE SUR LA GRANDE ILE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUES SUR MADAGASCAR:
LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST EN COURS SUR LA
COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR ET ELLE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER, PARTICULIEREMENT
DANS LA ZONE AU SUD DE L'ILE DE SAINTE MARIE.
1/ DE FORTES PLUIES: 150-250MM SUR LE LITTORAL, POUVANT DEPASSER LES
300MM SUR LE RELIEF EN 24H.
2/ DE FORTES RAFALES DE VENTS DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 90 A 100KM/H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151831
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/4/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 48.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/16 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/02/16 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2022/02/17 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/02/17 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/02/18 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/02/18 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

DUMAKO LANDED ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR IN LATE AFTERNOON,
PASSING BY THE ISLAND OF SAINTE-MARIE. THE SYSTEM GENERATED DURING
ITS LANDING STRONG CONVECTIVE PUFFS, ASSOCIATED PUNCTUALLY WITH A
STRONG ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY ON THE PROVINCE OF ANALANJIROFO. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 30KT, THANKS TO THE
OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY THE TAMATAVE STATION. IN THE NEXT HOURS THE
SYSTEM SHOULD LOGICALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE LAND.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEFINES THE MAIN STEERING FLOW OF DUMAKO. THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT
STILL SUGGESTS AN EXIT OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL BY MIDWEEK, IN A VERY WEAKENED FORM. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
CIRCULATION COULD MOVE TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST BY NEXT THURSDAY.

DUMAKOA HAS THUS LANDED AT THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. IN
THE EVENTUALITY OF AN OUTFLOW IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SUGGESTED BY
THE LAST NUMERICAL MODELS, THE RISK OF A NEW INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO
BE STILL QUITE MARGINAL, CONSIDERING THE UNCONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SCENARIO REMAINS VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE PERSISTENCE OF A MARKED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AFTER
ITS CROSSING OVER MADAGASCAR.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR:
THE DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS IN PROGRESS ON
THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN, PARTICULARLY
IN THE ZONE IN THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF SAINT MARIE.
1/ HEAVY RAINFALL: 150-250MM ON THE COAST, WHICH MAY EXCEED 300MM ON
THE RELIEF IN 24 HOURS.
2/ STRONG WIND GUSTS LOCALLY EXCEEDING 90 TO 100KM/H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 151819
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 15/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 4 (DUMAKO) 1005 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 48.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WTHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2022/02/16 AT 18 UTC:
16.4 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
NO MSG EXP=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151214
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/4/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 49.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 16/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 16/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 17/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 17/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 18/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 18/02/2022 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

DURANT LES TOUTES DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC L'APPROCHE DE LA COTE
MALGACHE, LA CONVECTION S'EST AFFAIBLI. LE SYSTEME EST EN TRAIN
D'ATTERRIR SUR LA COTE EST, PASSANT SUR LE NORD DE L'ILE
SAINTE-MARIE, POUR ATTEINDRE LA COTE AU SUD DE ANTANAMBE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DEFINIT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PRINCIPAL DE DUMAKO. AVEC LE
GONFLEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE AU SUD, LA TRAJECTOIRE A REDRESSE
LEGEREMENT A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE. EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE, LES DERNIERES SORTIE DE MODELE SUGGERENT ENCORE UNE
RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME DANS LE NORD DU CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE, SOUS UNE
FORME AFFAIBLIE. LES RESTES DE CETTE CIRCULATION POURRAIT SE DEPLACER
VERS LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI JEUDI.

DUMAKOA A DONC ATTERRI AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. LORS
DE SA RESSORTIE DANS LE CANAL, AU VU DES DERNIERS MODELES NUMERIQUES,
LE RISQUE D'UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE A NOUVEAU MARGINAL..
CE SCENARIO RESTE TRES DEPENDANT DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CIRCULATION
MARQUEE MALGRE LA TRAVERSEE DE LA GRANDE ILE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUES SUR MADAGASCAR:
LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST EN COURS SUR LA
COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR ET ELLE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER, PARTICULIEREMENT
DANS LA ZONE AU SUD DE L'ILE DE SAINTE MARIE.
1/ DE FORTES PLUIES: 150-250MM SUR LE LITTORAL, POUVANT DEPASSER LES
300MM SUR LE RELIEF EN 24H
2/ DE FORTES RAFALES DE VENTS DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 100KM/H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151214
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 49.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/16 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/16 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/02/17 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/02/17 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/02/18 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/02/18 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
DURING THE LAST HOURS, WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MALAGASY COAST, THE
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. THE SYSTEM IS LANDING ON THE EAST COAST,
PASSING OVER THE NORTH OF SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND, TO REACH THE COAST
SOUTH OF ANTANAMBE IN THE NEXT HOURS.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEFINES THE MAIN STEERING FLOW OF DUMAKO. WITH THE SWELLING OF THIS
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THE TRAJECTORY HAS STRAIGHTENED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE LANDING. BY MID-WEEK, THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT
STILL SUGGESTS AN OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, IN A WEAKENED FORM. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CIRCULATION COULD
MOVE TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST BY THURSDAY.

DUMAKOA HAS LANDED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. WHEN IT COMES OUT IN
THE CHANNEL, ACCORDING TO THE LAST NUMERICAL MODELS, THE RISK OF A
NEW INTENSIFICATION SEEMS AGAIN MARGINAL. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE PERSISTENCE OF A MARKED CIRCULATION DESPITE THE
CROSSING OF THE BIG ISLAND.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR:
THE DETERIORATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IS UNDERWAY ON THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF SAINTE MARIE.
1/ HEAVY RAINFALL: 150-250MM ON THE COAST, WHICH MAY EXCEED 300MM ON
THE RELIEF IN 24 HOURS
2/ STRONG WIND GUSTS LOCALLY EXCEEDING 100KM/H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 151212
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 15/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 49.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WTHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/16 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/16 AT 12 UTC:
16.1 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 220215071823
2022021506 12S DUMAKO 005 01 270 14 SATL 060
T000 169S 0504E 045 R034 020 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 166S 0486E 040
T024 164S 0469E 035
T036 162S 0447E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 50.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 50.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.6S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.4S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.2S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 49.9E.
15FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204
NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.
//
1222021018 113S 622E 15
1222021100 117S 628E 15
1222021106 121S 631E 15
1222021112 123S 627E 15
1222021118 124S 625E 25
1222021200 128S 630E 25
1222021206 137S 629E 25
1222021212 141S 624E 25
1222021218 142S 620E 30
1222021300 146S 615E 30
1222021306 149S 608E 35
1222021312 154S 597E 40
1222021318 157S 583E 45
1222021400 161S 568E 50
1222021400 161S 568E 50
1222021406 165S 552E 50
1222021406 165S 552E 50
1222021412 166S 542E 45
1222021418 167S 530E 45
1222021500 169S 519E 45
1222021506 169S 504E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 50.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 50.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.6S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.4S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.2S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 49.9E.
15FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204
NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150625
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/4/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 50.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 16/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 16/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 17/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 17/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 18/02/2022 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DE LA NUIT DERNIERE, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST MAINTENUE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST VOIRE TEMPORAIREMENT NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME
AVEC PLUSIEURS BURSTS DE CONVECTION ASSOCIES A UNE ACTIVITE
ELECTRIQUE INTENSE. DURANT LES TOUTES DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC
L'APPROCHE DE LA COTE MALGACHE, LA CONVECTION MARQUE LE PAS. DE MEME
SI UNE LEGERE BAISE DE LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST S'EST PRODUITE CETTE
NUIT, LES DERNIERES DONNA ES DU CIMMS MONTRE A NOUVEAU UN
CISAILLEMENT DE L'ORDRE DE 20KT.
INTENSITE ET POSIIONSONT BASEES SUR LES DERNIERES DONNA ES HY-2B DE
0030Z ET SSMIS DE 0305Z.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DEFINIT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PRINCIPAL DE DUMAKO. AVEC LE
GONFLEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE AU SUD AUJOURD'HUI, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER LEGEREMENT A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR A PROXIMITE DU NORD DE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE
(INCERTITUDE DE L'ORDRE DE 50KM), EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE JOURNEE OU
SOIREE. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LES DERNIERES SORTIE DE MODELE
SUGGERENT ENCORE UNE RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME DANS LE NORD DU CANAL DE
MOZAMBIQUE, SOUS UNE FORME AFFAIBLIE. LES RESTES DE CETTE CIRCULATION
POURRAIT SE DEPLACER VERS LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI JEUDI.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, DUMAKO DEVRAIT MAINTENIR L'INTENSITE
ACTUELLE VOIRE UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION. IL DEVRAIT DONC ATTERIR AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. LORS DE SA RESSORTIE DANS LE
CANAL, AU VU DES DERNIERS MODELES NUMERIQUES, LE RISQUE D'UNE
NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE A NOUVEAU MARGINAL.. CE SCENARIO
RESTE TRES DEPENDANT DE LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CIRCULATION MARQUEE
MALGRE LA TRAVERSEE DE LA GRANDE ILE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUES SUR MADAGASCAR:
LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES A COMMENCE SUR LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR ET ELLE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER, PARTICULIEREMENT DANS
LA ZONE AU SUD DE L'ILE DE SAINTE MARIE.
1/ DE FORTES PLUIES: 50-100MM SUR LE LITTORAL, 200-300MM SUR LE
RELIEF EN 24H
2/ DE FORTES RAFALES DE VENTS (80-100 KM/H)
3/ LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER GRADUELLEMENT ET
ATTEINDRE DES VALEURS DE L'ORDRE DE 3 A 4 MA TRES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 50.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/15 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/16 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/02/16 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2022/02/17 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/02/17 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/02/18 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST NIGHT, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OR EVEN TEMPORARILY NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH
SEVERAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE ELECTRIC
ACTIVITY. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
MALAGASY COAST, THE CONVECTION HAS STOPPED. EVEN IF A SLIGHT DECREASE
OF THE NORTHEASTERLY STRESS OCCURRED DURING THE NIGHT, THE LAST CIMMS
DATA SHOW AGAIN A SHEAR OF ABOUT 20KT.
INTENSITY AND POSITIONS ARE BASED ON THE LATEST HY-2B DATA FROM 0030Z
AND SSMIS FROM 0305Z.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEFINES
DUMAKO'S MAIN STEERING FLOW. WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BEFORE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR NEAR THE NORTH OF SAINTE MARIE ISLAND
(50/70KM UNCERTAINTY), BY TODAY EVENING. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUTS STILL SUGGEST AN EMERGENCE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IN A WEAKENED FORM. THE REMNANTS OF
THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS BY
THURSDAY.

ALONG THIS TRACK, DUMAKO SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY. IT SHOULD THEREFORE LAND AS A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM. WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE CHANNEL,GIVEN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE, THE CHANCES FOR REINTENSIFICATION SEEMS MARGINAL. THIS
SCENARIO IS STILL VERY DEPENDENT ON THE PERSISTENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
CIRCULATION WHILE CROSSING MADAGASCAR.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR:
THE DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAS ALREADY STARTED ON
THE EAST COAST AND WILL GET WORSE PARTICULARLY IN THE AREA SOUTH OF
THE SAINTE MARIE ISLAND.
1/ HEAVY RAINS: 50-100MM ON THE COASTLINE, 200-300MM ON THE HIGH
GROUND IN 24H
2/ STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H)
3/ THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND REACH AROUND 3
TO 4 METERS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 150606
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 15/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 50.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WTHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/15 AT 18 UTC:
16.5 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.1 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150035
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/4/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 52.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 16/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 16/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 17/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 17/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 18/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST
MAINTENUE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST VOIRE TEMPORAIREMENT NORD-OUEST
DU SYSTEME AVEC PLUSIEURS BURSTS DE CONVECTION ASSOCIES A UNE
ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE INTENSE. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DU CIMSS POURRAIT
SUGGERER UNE LEGERE BAISSE DE LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST.
MALHEURESEMENT EN L'ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNEES PERTINENTES
(ASCAT/MICRO-ONDES/...) A L'HEURE ACTUELLE, IL EST DIFFICILE
D'EVALUER AVEC CERTITUDE LA POSITION ET L'INTENSITE DE DUMAKO.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DEFINIT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PRINCIPAL DE DUMAKO. AVEC LE
GONFLEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE AU SUD AUJOURD'HUI, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER LEGEREMENT A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR A PROXIMITE DU NORD DE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE
(INCERTITUDE DE 50/70KM), EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE JOURNEE OU SOIREE. EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LES DERNIERES SORTIE DE MODELE SUGGERENT ENCORE
UNE RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME DANS LE NORD DU CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE, SOUS
UNE FORME AFFAIBLIE. LES RESTES DE CETTE CIRCULATION POURRAIT SE
DEPLACER VERS LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI JEUDI.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, DUMAKO POURRAIT RENCONTRER DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES UN PEU PLUS FAVORABLE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES. UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT
FAVORISER UN MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE VOIRE UNE LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION. IL DEVRAIT DONC ATTERIR AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE. LORS DE SA RESSORTIE DANS LE CANAL, AU VU DES
DERNIERS MODELES NUMERIQUES, LE RISQUE D'UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION
SEMBLE A NOUVEAU MARGINAL.. CE SCENARIO RESTE TRES DEPENDANT DE LA
PERSISTANCE D'UNE CIRCULATION MARQUEE MALGRE LA TRAVERSEE DE LA
GRANDE ILE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUES SUR MADAGASCAR:
LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES A COMMENCE SUR LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR ET ELLE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER, PARTICULIEREMENT DANS
LA ZONE AU SUD DE L'ILE DE SAINTE MARIE.
1/ DE FORTES PLUIES: 50-100MM SUR LE LITTORAL, 200-300MM SUR LE
RELIEF EN 24H
2/ DE FORTES RAFALES DE VENTS (80-100 KM/H)
3/ LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER GRADUELLEMENT ET
ATTEINDRE DES VALEURS DE L'ORDRE DE 3 A 4 MA TRES=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150035
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 52.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/15 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2022/02/16 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/02/16 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/02/17 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/02/17 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/02/18 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINTAINED IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE AND EVEN IN NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT TEMPORARILY,
WITH SEVERAL BURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. LAST
CIMSS ANALYSES MAY SUGGEST A SLIGHT DECAY OF THE UPPER CONSTRAINT.
HOVEWER GIVEN THE LACK OF USEFUL DATA, IT IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO
ASSESS DUMAKO EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEFINES
DUMAKO'S MAIN STEERING FLOW. WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BEFORE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR NEAR THE NORTH OF SAINTE MARIE ISLAND
(50/70KM UNCERTAINTY), BY TODAY EVENING. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUTS STILL SUGGEST AN EMERGENCE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IN A WEAKENED FORM. THE REMNANTS OF
THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS BY
THURSDAY.

ALONG THIS TRACK, DUMAKO MAY ENCOUNTER MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHORTLY. A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR THE
PERSISTANCE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN A SMALL DEVELOPMENT.
DUMAKO IS THUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM UNTIL ITS
LANDFALL ON THE MALAGASY COAST. WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE
CHANNEL,GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE CHANCES FOR REINTENSIFICATION
SEEMS MARGINAL. THIS SCENARIO IS STILL VERY DEPENDENT ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CIRCULATION WHILE CROSSING MADAGASCAR.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR:
THE DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAS ALREADY STARTED ON
THE EAST COAST AND WILL GET WORSE PARTICULARLY IN THE AREA SOUTH OF
THE SAINTE MARIE ISLAND.
1/ HEAVY RAINS: 50-100MM ON THE COASTLINE, 200-300MM ON THE HIGH
GROUND IN 24H
2/ STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H)
3/ THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND REACH AROUND 3
TO 4 METERS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 150016
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 15/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 52.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WTHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/15 AT 12 UTC:
16.7 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/16 AT 00 UTC:
16.2 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 220214200023
2022021418 12S DUMAKO 004 01 265 12 SATL 045
T000 167S 0530E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 166S 0509E 045 R034 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 163S 0489E 040
T036 159S 0468E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.6S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 52.5E.
14FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. //
1222021018 113S 622E 15
1222021100 117S 628E 15
1222021106 121S 631E 15
1222021112 123S 627E 15
1222021118 124S 625E 25
1222021200 128S 630E 25
1222021206 137S 629E 25
1222021212 141S 624E 25
1222021218 142S 620E 30
1222021300 146S 615E 30
1222021306 149S 608E 35
1222021312 154S 597E 40
1222021318 157S 583E 45
1222021400 161S 568E 50
1222021400 161S 568E 50
1222021406 165S 552E 50
1222021406 165S 552E 50
1222021412 166S 542E 45
1222021418 167S 530E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.6S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 52.5E.
14FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. //
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141848
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/4/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 52.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

24H: 15/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 16/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 16/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 17/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 17/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST UNE
NOUVELLE FOIS RENFORCEE AVEC UN BURST DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DE
LA CIRCULATION. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DUMAKO SEMBLE DONC
TOUJOURS AFFECTE PAR UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS
AUTOUR DE 20KT, LIMITANT LE DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME. LA PASSE SSMIS
DE 1334Z LE CONFIRME AVEC UN CENTRE DE SURFACE EN BORDURE DU BURST.
EN L'ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNEES, L'INTENSITE EST REAJUSTEE A 35KT EN
ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES. LA
POSITION DU CENTRE RESTE QUANT A ELLE PLUTOT INCERTAINE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DEFINIT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PRINCIPAL DE DUMAKO, AVEC UN
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST JUSQU'A DEMAIN MARDI.
PUIS, AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT
SE REDRESSER LEGEREMENT A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE
SUR MADAGASCAR ENTRE L'ILE DE SAINTE-MARIE ET LA PENINSULE DE
MASOALA,EN JOURNEE DE DEMAIN. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LES DERNIERES
SORTIE DE MODELE SUGGERENT ENCORE UNE RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME DANS LE
NORD DU CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE, SOUS UNE FORME AFFAIBLIE. LES RESTES DE
CETTE CIRCULATION POURRAIT SE DEPLACER VERS LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE
D'ICI JEUDI.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, DUMAKO DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES MITIGEES. LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION
EST CONTRAINT A L'HEURE ACTUELLE NON SEULEMENT PAR UNE CONTRAINTE
D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-EST MODEREE MAIS AUSSI PAR UN DEFAUT
D'ALIMENTATION CA TE EQUATORIAL. TOUTEFOIS, DU FAIT DU DEPLACEMENT
RAPIDE DU SYSTEME ET D'UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT
DURANT CES PROCHAINES HEURES, DUMAKO DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU STADE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE MALGACHE. LORS
DE SA RESSORTIE DANS LE CANAL, CERTAINS DES DERNIERS RUNS DU MODELE
IFS SUGERENT UNE EVENTUELLE REINTENSIFICATION. CE SCENARIO N'EST PAS
L'INSTANT PAS PRIVILIGIE CAR MINORITAIRE ET TRES DEPENDANT DE LA
PERSISTANCE D'UNE CIRCULATION MARQUEE MALGRE LA TRAVERSEE DE LA
GRANDE ILE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUES SUR MADAGASCAR:
EN L'A TAT ACTUEL DES CHOSES UNE DA GRADATION SIGNIFICATIVE DES
CONDITIONS MA TA OROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE EN FIN DE NUIT SUR LA CA TE
EST ENTRE LE CAP MASOALA ET TAMATAVE ET PARTICULIEREMENT LA ZONE AU
SUD DE L'ILE DE SAINTE MARIE.
1/ DE FORTES PLUIES: 50-100MM SUR LE LITTORAL, 200-300MM SUR LE
RELIEF EN 24H
2/ DE FORTES RAFALES DE VENTS (80-100 KM/H)
3/ LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER GRADUELLEMENT ET
ATTEINDRE DES VALEURS DE L'ORDRE DE 3 A 4 MA TRES=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 52.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/15 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/15 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/02/16 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/02/16 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2022/02/17 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/02/17 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRENGTHENED AGAIN
WITH A BURST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
DUMAKO'S CLOUD PATTERN STILL SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCED BY A
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS AROUND 20KT, LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE 1334Z SSMIS PASS CONFIRMS IT WITH A
LOW LEVEL CENTER ON THE EDGE OF THE BURST. IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER
DATA, THE INTENSITY IS READJUSTED TO 35KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES. THE POSITION OF THE CENTER REMAINS
RATHER UNCERTAIN.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEFINES
DUMAKO'S MAIN STEERING FLOW, WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL
TOMORROW TUESDAY. THEN, WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE SOUTH,
THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE LANDING
ON MADAGASCAR BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND MASOALA PENINSULA,
TOMORROW. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUTS STILL
SUGGEST AN EMERGENCE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, IN A WEAKENED FORM. THE REMNANTS OF THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD
MOVE TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS BY THURSDAY.

ALONG THIS TRACK, DUMAKO SHOULD ENCOUNTER MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY LIMITED
NOT ONLY BY THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT BUT ALSO BY A LACK
OF EQUATORIAL FEEDING. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
DUMAKO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL ITS LANDFALL ON
THE MALAGASY COAST. WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE CHANNEL, SOME OF THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE IFS MODEL SUGGEST A POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION.TH
IS SCENARIO IS NOT FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT BECAUSE IT IS UNLIKELY AND
VERY DEPENDENT ON THE PERSISTENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CIRCULATION
DESPITE THE CROSSING OF MADAGASCAR.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR:
A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW MORNING ON THE EAST COAST BETWEEN CAPE MASOALA AND TAMATAVE,
PARTICULARLY THE AREA SOUTH OF THE SAINTE MARIE ISLAND.
1/ HEAVY RAINS: 50-100MM ON THE COASTLINE, 200-300MM ON THE HIGH
GROUND IN 24H
2/ STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H)
3/ THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND REACH AROUND 3
TO 4 METERS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 141827
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 14/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 52.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WTHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/15 AT 06 UTC:
16.7 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/15 AT 18 UTC:
16.4 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 141237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/4/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 54.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 15/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 15/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 16/02/2022 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 16/02/2022 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 17/02/2022 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 17/02/2022 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT MODA RA DE SECTEUR NORD-EST, ET D'UNE
ALIMENTATION COTE EQUATORIALE DEFICIENTE, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE
DE DUMAKO A CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER DEPUIS LE DEBUT DE L'APRES-MIDI.
LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES S'EST DEPHASEE AVEC L'ALTITUDE,
COMME LE SUGGERENT LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS AINSI QUE LES DERNIA RES
ANIMATIONS SATELLITES. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME EST DONC DEPORTE A L'EST
DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE LOCALISA E DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. ON
EST PASSE PROGRESSIVEMENT D'UNE CONFIGURATION DE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA
MASSE A UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES
MICRO-ONDES ET D'ASCATS CENTRA ES SUR LE SYSTEME, LA LOCALISATION DE
LA POSITION DU CENTRE A ETE PLUS DIFFICILE A DETERMINER. L'ESTIMATION
DE L'INTENSITE BASEE SUR L'ANALYSE DVORAK N'A PAS ETE NON PLUS TRES
PERTINENTE EN RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT NOTABLE DE LA CONVECTION AU
SEIN DU SYSTEME. LA PASSE SMOS PARTIELLE DE 0207Z, AINSI QUE LES
DERNIERES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES PLAIDENT POUR UNE
INTENSITE MAX DE 40KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DEFINIT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PRINCIPAL DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
DUMAKO, AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST JUSQU'A
DEMAIN MARDI. PUIS, AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER LEGEREMENT A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR ENTRE L'ILE DE SAINTE-MARIE ET
SAMBAVA, DEMAIN MARDI ENTRE LA MI-JOURNEE ET LA SOIREE. IL EXISTE UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UN SCENARIO UN PEU PLUS
NORD-OUEST DANS LE CAS OU LE SYSTEME S'AFFAIBLIRAIT ET SERAIT AINSI
DIRIGE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS UN PEU PLUS BAS. CE SCENARIO N'EST PAS
PRIVILEGIE ACTUELLEMENT PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION. EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE, LES DERNIERES SORTIE DE MODELE SUGGERENT ENCORE UNE
RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME DANS LE NORD DU CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE, AU SUD DE
L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES, SOUS UNE FORME TRA S AFFAIBLIE QUI NE
PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE D'INTENSIFICATION. AU VU DE LA PETITE TAILLE
DU SYSTEME, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITA ET DE TRAJECTOIRE EST SOUMISE A
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, DUMAKO DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES MITIGEES. LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION
EST CONTRAINT A L'HEURE ACTUELLE NON SEULEMENT PAR UNE CONTRAINTE
D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-EST MODEREE MAIS AUSSI PAR UN DEFAUT
D'ALIMENTATION CA TE EQUATORIAL. TOUTEFOIS, DU FAIT DU DEPLACEMENT
RAPIDE DU SYSTEME ET D'UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT
DURANT CES PROCHAINES HEURES, DUMAKO DEVRAIT POUVOIR SE STABILISER AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE
MALGACHE. UN ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE SUR
LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR RESTE DONC L'OPTION LA PLUS PROBABLE.
DUMAKO DEVRAIT ENSUITE TRANSITER SUR TERRE ET RESSORTIR A UN STADE
AFFAIBLI EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE ENTRE MAHAJANGA ET BESALAMPY, SANS
PRESENTER DE REELLES VELLA ITA S DE REINTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES:
-ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION: AU VU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME ET
DE SON PASSAGE A PLUS DE 400 KM PLUS AU NORD, LES ILES SOEURS NE
SERONT PAS IMPACTEES PAR LE SYSTEME.
-MADAGASCAR: EN L'A TAT ACTUEL DES CHOSES UNE DA GRADATION
SIGNIFICATIVE DES CONDITIONS MA TA OROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE DA S
DEMAIN MARDI SUR LA CA TE EST ENTRE ANTALAHA ET TOAMASINA.
1/ DE FORTES PLUIES: 100-200 MM EN 24H POSSIBLES ENTRE LE CAP MASOALA
ET JUSQU'A NOSY-VARIKA PAR DA BORDEMENT, AINSI QUE SUR LES
HAUTS-PLATEAUX EXPOSA S.
2/ DE FORTES RAFALES DE VENTS (80-100 KM/H) ASSEZ CONTENUES GA
OGRAPHIQUEMENT, SONT ATTENDUES A PROXIMITA IMMA DIATE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DA S DEMAIN MATIN. EN EFFET, COMPTE TENU DE LA PETITE
TAILLE DU SYSTA ME, LES ZONES A VENTUELLEMENT IMPACTA ES DEVRAIENT A
TRE PEU A TENDUES.
3/ LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER GRADUELLEMENT ET
ATTEINDRE LA CA TE EST EN SOIRA E, ET ATTEINDRE DES VALEURS DE
L'ORDRE DE 3 A 4 MA TRES POUR LA HAUTEUR DE VAGUES LES PLUS
PROBABLES (DANS LE PIRE DES CAS, LES VALEURS LES PLUS HAUTES POURRONT
ATTEINDRE LES 6 A 8 MA TRES).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 141237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 54.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/15 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/15 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/16 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/02/16 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2022/02/17 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2022/02/17 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

UNDER THE EFFECT OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR ALOFT, AND OF A
LACK OF EQUATORIAL SUPPLY, THE DUMAKO CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LLC HAS BEEN
DEPHASING WITH THE CIRCULATION ALOFT, AS SUGGESTED BY THE CIMSS
ANALYSIS AND THE LAST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. WE HAVE PROGRESSIVELY MOVED FROM A CDO PATTERN TO A
SHEARED CONFIGURATION. IN THE LACK OF MICROWAVE DATA AND
SCATTEROMETERS DATA CENTERED ON THE SYSTEM, THE LOCATION OF THE
CENTER WAS MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED
ON THE DVORAK ANALYSIS WAS ALSO NOT VERY RELEVANT BECAUSE OF THE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE SYSTEM. THE
PARTIAL 0207Z SMOS SWATH, AS WELL AS THE LAST OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE PLEAD FOR A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 40KT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEFINES
THE MAIN STEERING FLOW OF DUMAKO'S TRACK, WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOVEMENT UNTIL TOMORROW TUESDAY. THEN, WITH THE SWELLING OF THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR BETWEEN THE ISLAND OF
SAINT-MARIE AND SAMBAVA, TOMORROW TUESDAY BETWEEN MIDDAY AND EVENING.
THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK WITH A SCENARIO A LITTLE MORE
NORTH-WEST IN CASE THE SYSTEM WOULD WEAKEN AND WOULD BE THUS DIRECTED
BY SLIGHTLY LOWER STEERING FLOWS. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY THE REUNION RSMC. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE LAST
MODEL OUTPUTS STILL SUGGEST AN EMERGENCE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH
OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IN THE SOUTH OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO,
IN A VERY WEAKENED FORM WHICH DOES NOT PRESENT ANY RISK OF
INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE FORECAST OF
INTENSITY AND TRAJECTORY IS SUBJECT TO A HIGH UNCERTAINTY.

ALONG THIS TRACK, DUMAKO IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY
CONSTRAINED NOT ONLY BY A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY UPPER AIR CONSTRAINT
BUT ALSO BY A LACK OF EQUATORIAL FEEDING. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, DUMAKO SHOULD BE ABLE TO STABILIZE AT THE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE UNTIL ITS LANDING ON THE MALAGASY COAST. A LANDING AT THE
STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
REMAINS THE MOST PROBABLE OPTION. DUMAKO SHOULD THEN PASS OVER LAND
AND EMERGE AT A WEAKENED STAGE BY MID-WEEK BETWEEN MAHAJANGA AND
BESALAMPY, WITH NO REAL PROSPECT OF REINTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-MADAGASCAR: A SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW TUESDAY ON THE EAST COAST BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND
TOAMASINA.
1/ HEAVY RAINS: 100-200 MM IN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE BETWEEN CAPE MASOALA
AND UP TO NOSY-VARIKA BY OVERFLOW, AS WELL AS ON THE EXPOSED HIGH
PLATEAUS.
2/ STRONG GUSTS OF WIND (80-100 KM/H) QUITE CONTAINED GEOGRAPHICALLY,
ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE FROM
TOMORROW MORNING. INDEED, CONSIDERING THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM,
THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD BE SMALL.
3/ THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND REACH THE EAST
COAST IN THE EVENING, AND REACH VALUES OF ABOUT 3 TO 4 METERS FOR THE
MOST LIKELY WAVE HEIGHT (IN THE WORST CASE, THE HIGHEST VALUES MAY
REACH 6 TO 8 METERS).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 141210
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 14/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 54.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WTHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 20
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/15 AT 00 UTC:
16.7 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/15 AT 12 UTC:
16.5 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 220214065359
2022021406 12S DUMAKO 003 01 255 16 SATL 015
T000 165S 0552E 050 R050 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 169S 0529E 045 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 167S 0510E 040 R034 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 162S 0493E 035 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 156S 0472E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 55.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 55.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.9S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.7S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.2S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.6S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 54.6E.
14FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
1222021018 113S 622E 15
1222021100 117S 628E 15
1222021106 121S 631E 15
1222021112 123S 627E 15
1222021118 124S 625E 25
1222021200 128S 630E 25
1222021206 137S 629E 25
1222021212 141S 624E 25
1222021218 142S 620E 30
1222021300 146S 615E 30
1222021306 149S 608E 35
1222021312 154S 597E 40
1222021318 157S 583E 45
1222021400 161S 568E 50
1222021400 161S 568E 50
1222021406 165S 552E 50
1222021406 165S 552E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 55.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 55.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.9S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.7S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.2S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.6S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 54.6E.
14FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140652
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/4/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 56.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 0

24H: 15/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 130 NO: 0

36H: 15/02/2022 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 16/02/2022 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 16/02/2022 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

72H: 17/02/2022 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/02/2022 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 ET CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU CDO
S'EST LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTION MOINS
SOUTENUE ET UN REHAUFFEMENT PROGRESSIF DES SOMMETS. LE CENTRE DE
BASSES COUCHES SEMBLE S'A TRE DA PORTE A L'OUEST DU L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE, SANS DOUTE LIE A LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE
NORD-EST. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNES MICRO-ONDES ET D'ASCATS CENTRA ES
SUR DUMAKO, L'ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A ETE REVUE
LEGEREMENT A LA BAISSE EN PRENANT EN COMPTE L'EVOLUTION GENERALE DU
SYSTEME AINSI QUE LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DEFINIT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PRINCIPAL DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
DUMAKO, AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DEMAIN MARDI. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC
PASSER A PLUS DE 400 KM DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION CE LUNDI.
PAR LA SUITE, AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER A L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR ENTRE L'ILE DE SAINTE-MARIE ET SAMBAVA, DEMAIN MARDI ENTRE
LA MI-JOURNEE ET LA SOIREE.
IL EXISTE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UN SCENARIO UN PEU
PLUS NORD-OUEST DANS LE CAS OU LE SYSTEME S'AFFAIBLIRAIT ET SERAIT
AINSI DIRIGE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS UN PEU PLUS BAS. CE SCENARIO
N'EST PAS PRIVILEGIE ACTUELLEMENT PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION. PAR LA
SUITE, LES TOUTES DERNIERES SORTIE DE MODELE SUGGERENT UNE RESSORTIE
DU SYSTEME DANS LE CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE, LOIN AU SUD DE L'ARCHIPEL DES
COMORES, SOUS UNE FORME TRA S AFFAIBLIE. AU VU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU
SYSTEME, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITA ET DE TRAJECTOIRE EST SOUMISE A
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, DUMAKO DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES MITIGEES. LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION
EST CONTRAINT A L'HEURE ACTUELLE NON SEULEMENT PAR UN CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-EST MODERE A FORT MAIS AUSSI PAR UN DEFAUT D'ALIMENTATION CA TE
EQUATORIAL. TOUTEFOIS, DU FAIT DU DEPLACEMENT REPIDE DU SYSTEME,
DUMAKO DEVRAIT RESISTER AU CISAILLEMENT ET RESTER AU STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE MALGACHE. UN
ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE SUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR RESTE DONC L'OPTION LA PLUS PROBABLE. DUMAKO DEVRAIT
ENSUITE TRANSITER SUR TERRE ET RESSORTIR A UN STADE AFFAIBLI EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, ET NE DEVRAIT PAS PRESENTER DE RISQUE DE
REINTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES:
-ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION: AU VU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME ET
DE SON PASSAGE A PLUS DE 400 KM PLUS AU NORD, LES ILES SOEURS NE
SERONT PAS IMPACTEES PAR LE SYSTEME.
-MADAGASCAR: UNE DEGRADATION SIGNIFICATIVE DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE DES DEMAIN MARDI SUR LA COTE EST ENTRE
ANTALAHA ET NOSY-VARIKA.
DE FORTES PLUIES (100-150 MM EN 24H POSSIBLES ENTRE LE CAP MASOALA ET
TOAMASINA, AINSI QUE LES HAUTS-PLATEAUX, AVEC DES POINTES LOCALES A
200-300MM PROBABLES PRES DE SAINTE-MARIE) ET DE FORTES RAFALES DE
VENTS (80-100 KM/H) ASSEZ CONTENUES GEOGRAPHIQUEMENT, SONT ATTENDUES
A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE. EN EFFET, COMPTE
TENU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, LES ZONES EVENTUELLEMENT
IMPACTEES DEVRAIENT ETRE PEU ETENDUES. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT
ATTEINDRE LA COTE EN FIN DE NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI ET ATTEINDRE DES
VALEURS DE L'ORDRE DE 3M POUR LA HAUTEUR DE VAGUES LES PLUS PROBABLES
(DANS LE PIRE DES CAS, LES VALEURS LES HAUTES POUVANT ATTEINDRE LES
5M). LES POPULATIONS DE CES ZONES EST INVITEE A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE
CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140652
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 56.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/14 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/15 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/15 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/02/16 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/02/16 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

72H: 2022/02/17 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/18 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN HAS DECLINED SLIGHTLY,
WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND A GRADUAL REHEATING OF THE TOPS.
THE LLCC SEEMS TO HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
PROBABLY LINKED TO THE NORTHEAST WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT. DUE TO
MICROWAVE DATA AND SCATTEROMTERS DATA CENTERED ON DUMAKO, THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD, GIVEN THE
GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DATA AVAILABLE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEFINES THE MAIN DIRECTION OF DUMAKO'S TRACK, WITH A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY MOVEMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEREFORE DRIFT MORE THAN 400 KM FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION THIS
MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH,
THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE LANDING
ON MADAGASCAR BETWEEN THE ISLAND OF SAINT-MARIE AND SAMBAVA, TUESDAY
BETWEEN MIDDAY AND EVENING.
THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK WITH A SCENARIO A LITTLE MORE
NORTH-WEST IN CASE THE SYSTEM WOULD WEAKEN AND WOULD BE THUS DIRECTED
BY SLIGHTLY LOWER STEERING FLOWS. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORED BY THE RSMC. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS A
RE-EMERGENCE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FAR SOUTH OF
THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO, IN A VERY WEAKENED FORM. DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE PREDICTION OF INTENSITY AND TRAJECTORY IS
SUBJECT TO A HIGH UNCERTAINTY.

ALONG THIS TRACK, DUMAKO SHOULD ENCOUNTER MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY
CONSTRAINED NOT ONLY BY MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT
ALSO BY A LACK OF EQUATORIAL FEEDING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, DUMAKO SHOULD RESIST THE SHEAR ALOFT AND
REMAIN AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM UNTIL ITS LANDING ON THE
MALAGASY COAST. A LANDING AT THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR REMAINS THE MOST PROBABLE OPTION.
DUMAKO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND AND EMERGE AT A WEAKENED STAGE
BY MID-WEEK, AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT A RISK OF REINTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-MAURITIUS AND REUNION: DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS
TRANSIT MORE THAN 400 KM FURTHER NORTH, THE ISLANDS WON'T BE
IMPACTED BY THE SYSTEM.
-MADAGASCAR: A SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW TUESDAY ON THE EAST COAST BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND
NOSY-VARIKA.
HEAVY RAINS (100-150 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE BETWEEN CAPE MASOALA AND
TOAMASINA, AS WELL AS THE HIGHLANDS, WITH LOCAL PEAKS OF 200-300MM
LIKELY NEAR SAINTE-MARIE) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H) QUITE
CONTAINED GEOGRAPHICALLY, ARE EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE LANDING ZONE. INDEED, CONSIDERING THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM,
THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD BE SMALL. THE CYCLONIC SWELL
SHOULD REACH THE COAST AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
AND REACH VALUES OF ABOUT 3M FOR THE MOST PROBABLE WAVE HEIGHT (IN
THE WORST CASE, THE HIGHEST VALUES COULD REACH 5M). THE POPULATION OF
THESE AREAS IS INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 140628
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 14/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 56.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WTHIN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 210 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/14 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/15 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 140015
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/4/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1 S / 57.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 15/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

36H: 15/02/2022 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

48H: 16/02/2022 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 16/02/2022 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGUATION NUAGEUSE EN CDO
S'EST MAINTENUE PRESENTANT AUSSI UNE FORTE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE,
SYNOMYNE D'INTENSIFICATION. LES VALEURS D'ANALYSE DVORAK PRECEDENTES
ETANT ASSEZ FAIBLES, LES REGLES DVORAK LIMITENT ACTUELLEMENT
L'INTENSITE DU DUMAKO AU SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. LES
VENTS ESTIMES SONT DE L'ORDRE DE 45KT. MAIS IL N'EST PAS EXCLU QUE LE
SEUIL DES 50KT SOIT ATTEINT DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME,
QUE L'ON NE PEUT PAS VALIDER EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES
RECENTES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
DEFINIT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PRINCIPAL DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DUMAKO, AVEC
UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AU COURS
DES 2 PROCHAINS JOURS. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC PASSER A PLUS DE 400
KM DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION CE LUNDI. PAR LA SUITE, AVEC LE
GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT REDRESSAIT
OUEST-NORD-OUEST AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR ENTRE L'ILE
SAINTE-MARIE ET ANTALAHA, MARDI ENTRE LA MI-JOURNEE ET LA SOIREE. IL
EXISTE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UN SCENARIO UN PEU
PLUS NORD-OUEST DANS LE CAS OU LE SYSTEME SERAIT D'INTENSITE PLUS
FAIBLE ET AINSI DIRIGE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS UN PEU PLUS BAS. CE
SCENARIO N'EST PAS POUR LE MOMENT SUIVI PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION.
PAR LA SUITE, LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE NE PREVOIT PAS
UNE RESSORTIE EN MER AUTRE QUE SOUS LA FORME D'UNE LARGE ZONE
DEPRESSIONNAIRE SUR LE NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS S'ARRETE DONC A UNE ECHEANCE DE MERCREDI
PROCHAIN.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DU SYSTEME RESTE MIXTE
MAIS PERMET DE PERIODE D'INTENSIFICATION POUR DUMAKO NOTAMMENT A
COURTE ECHEANCE. C'EST BIEN L'ALIMENTATION COTE EQUATORIALE QUI
LIMITE LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANC DU SYSTEME. DU FAIT
DE SON ACCELERATION VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME ARRIVE A MIEUX
RESISTER AU CISAILLEMENT MODERE PRESENT ET DUMAKO DEVRAIT GLOBALEMENT
MAINTENIR LE SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AU COURS DE SON
TRANSIT VERS MADAGASCAR, LE SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE POUVANT
ETRE ATTEINT TEMPORAIREMENT AU COURS DE CETTE PERIODE. LA PETITE
TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE REND EN EFFET SUSCEPTIBLE DE CONNAITRE DES
FLUCTUATIONS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE, QUI POURRAIENT ETRE PLUS
IMPORTANTES QUE DANS LA PREVISION ACTUELLE. UN ATTERRISSAGE AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR EST LE
PLUS PROBABLE. TRANSISTANT SUR TERRE, L'OPTION DOMINANTE EST ENSUITE
EN FAVEUR D'UNE DISSIPATION PROGRESSIVE DU SYSTEME PUIS D'UNE
RESSORTIE EN MER TRES ATTENUE SOUS FORME D'UNE LARGE ZONE
DEPRESSIONNAIRE NE PRESENTANT PAS DE RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES:
-ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION: AU VU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME ET
DE SON PASSAGE A PLUS DE 400 KM PLUS AU NORD, LES ILES SOEURS NE
SERONT PAS IMPACTEES PAR LE SYSTEME.
-MADAGASCAR: UNE DEGRADATION SIGNIFICATIVE DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE EN JOURNEE ET SOIREE DE MARDI SUR LE
SECTEUR ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE-MARIE ET ANTALAHA. DE FORTES PLUIES
(50-100 MM EN MOINS DE 24H POSSIBLES ENTRE TOAMASINA ET ANTALAHA,
AVEC DES POINTES LOCALES A 200-300MM PROBABLES PRES DE SAINTE-MARIE)
ET DE FORTES RAFALES DE VENTS (80-100 KM/H) SONT ATTENDUES A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE. DE PLUS, COMPTE TENU
DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, LES ZONES EVENTUELLEMENT IMPACTEES
DEVRAIENT ETRE PEU ETENDUES. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LA
COTE EN FIN DE NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI ET ATTEINDRE DES VALEURS DE
L'ORDRE DE 3M POUR LA HAUTEUR DE VAGUES LES PLUS PROBABLES (DANS LE
PIRE DES CAS, LES VALEURS LES HAUTES POUVANT ATTEINDRE LES 5M). LES
POPULATIONS DE CES ZONES EST INVITEE A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE CE
SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 140015
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 57.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/14 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/02/15 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/15 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/16 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/02/16 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IN CDO HAS CONTINUED WITH
STRONG ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY, WHICH IS A SIGN OF INTENSIFICATION. THE
PREVIOUS DVORAK ANALYSIS VALUES BEING QUITE LOW, THE DVORAK RULES
CURRENTLY LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF DUMAKO TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM THRESHOLD. THE ESTIMATED WINDS ARE AROUND 45KT. BUT IT IS NOT
EXCLUDED THAT THE 50KT THRESHOLD IS REACHED BECAUSE OF THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH CANNOT BE VALIDATED IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEFINES THE MAIN
DIRECTION OF DUMAKO'S TRACK, WITH A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WEST MOVEMENT
OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE PASS MORE THAN 400
KM FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION THIS MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WITH THE
FILLING OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN WEST-NORTHWEST
BEFORE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR BETWEEN SAINT MARY'S ISLAND AND
ANTALAHA, ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MIDDAY AND EVENING. THERE IS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK WITH A SCENARIO A LITTLE MORE NORTH-WEST IN
CASE THE SYSTEM WOULD BE OF WEAKER INTENSITY AND THUS DIRECTED BY
SLIGHTLY LOWER STEERING FLOWS. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FOLLOWED FOR THE
MOMENT BY THE RSMC OF THE REUNION. THEREAFTER, THE WEAKNESS OF THE
RESIDUAL DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORESEE AN EXIT AT SEA OTHER THAN IN THE
FORM OF A LARGE DEPRESSION ZONE OVER THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THE FORECAST OF THE RSMC TRACK STOPS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS MIXED BUT
ALLOWS FOR PERIODS OF INTENSIFICATION FOR DUMAKO, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SHORT TERM. IT IS THE EQUATORIAL FEEDING THAT LIMITS THE SYSTEM'S
POTENTIAL FOR MORE DIRECT INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO ITS ACCELERATION
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, THE SYSTEM IS BETTER ABLE TO RESIST THE
PRESENT MODERATE SHEAR AND DUMAKO SHOULD GLOBALLY MAINTAIN THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD DURING ITS TRANSIT TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR, THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD MAY BE TEMPORARILY
REACHED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, WHICH COULD BE
GREATER THAN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. A LANDING AT THE STAGE OF A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR IS THE MOST
LIKELY. TRANSITING ON LAND, THE DOMINANT OPTION IS THEN IN FAVOR OF A
GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN A VERY ATTENUATED EXIT AT
SEA IN THE FORM OF A LARGE DEPRESSIONAL ZONE PRESENTING NO RISK OF
REINTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION: GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
PASSAGE MORE THAN 400 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENE, MAURITIUS AND
REUNION ISLANDS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY THE SYSTEM.
-MADAGASCAR: A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAYTIME AND FOLLOWING NIGHT SOMEWHERE
MAINLY BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND ANTALAHA. HEAVY RAINFALL
(50-100 MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND
ANTALAHA, WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 200-300MM LIKELY NEAR
SAINTE-MARIE) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL AREA. MOREOVER, CONSIDERING THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH THE COAST AT THE END OF THE
NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY AND REACH VALUES OF ABOUT 3M FOR THE
MOST PROBABLE WAVE HEIGHT (IN THE WORST CASE, THE HIGHEST VALUES CAN
REACH 5M). THE POPULATION OF THESE AREAS IS INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 140000
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 14/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 57.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WTHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/14 AT 12 UTC:
16.5 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/15 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 220213195321
2022021318 12S DUMAKO 002 01 255 14 SATL 020
T000 157S 0583E 045 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 164S 0560E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 167S 0537E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 165S 0517E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 159S 0500E 045 R034 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 146S 0470E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 58.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 58.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.4S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.7S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.5S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.9S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.6S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 57.7E.
13FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.
//
1222021018 113S 622E 15
1222021100 117S 628E 15
1222021106 121S 631E 15
1222021112 123S 627E 15
1222021118 124S 625E 25
1222021200 128S 630E 25
1222021206 137S 629E 25
1222021212 141S 624E 25
1222021218 142S 620E 30
1222021300 146S 615E 30
1222021306 149S 608E 35
1222021312 154S 597E 40
1222021318 157S 583E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 58.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 58.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.4S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.7S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.5S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.9S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.6S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 57.7E.
13FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/4/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 58.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 0

24H: 14/02/2022 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 0

36H: 15/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 15/02/2022 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 16/02/2022 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

A 1430UTC, SUITE A L'EVOLUTION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE ET AUX
OBSERVATIONS DE SAINT BRANDON, LE SEUIL DES 34KT A ETE VALIDE. LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN A BAPTISE LA TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE DUMAKO. AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE S'EST MAINTENUE PROCHE DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME ET LA
CONFIGURATION EN CDO PERMET DE MAINTENIR UNE ANALYSE DVORAK A 3.0,
LAISSANT ENCORE DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT. LA PASSE
MICRO-ONDE GPM DE 1533UTC PERMET DE VALIDER CE PETIT REGAIN
D'INTENSITE DE DUMAKO ALORS QUE LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1729 UTC PERMET DE
VALIDER DES VALEURS DE 35KT QUI POURRAIENT ETRE LEGEREMENT
SOUS-ESTIMES DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME.

LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DEFINIT LE FLUX DIRECTEUR PRINCIPAL DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE DUMAKO, AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES 2 PROCHAINS JOURS. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
DONC PASSER A PLUS DE 400 KM DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION CE
LUNDI. PAR LA SUITE, AVEC LE GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT REDRESSAIT OUEST-NORD-OUEST AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE-MARIE ET ANTALAHA, MARDI ENTRE LA
MI-JOURNEE ET LA SOIREE. IL EXISTE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
AVEC UN SCENARIO UN PEU PLUS NORD-OUEST DANS LE CAS OU LE SYSTEME
SERAIT D'INTENSITE PLUS FAIBLE ET AINSI DIRIGE PAR DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS UN PEU PLUS BAS. CE SCENARIO N'EST PAS POUR LE MOMENT
SUIVI PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION. PAR LA SUITE, LA FAIBLESSE DE LA
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE NE PREVOIT PAS UNE RESSORTIE EN MER AUTRE QUE
SOUS LA FORME D'UNE LARGE ZONE DEPRESSIONNAIRE SUR LE NORD DU CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS S'ARRETE DONC A
UNE ECHEANCE DE MERCREDI PROCHAIN.

LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DU SYSTEME EST MIXTE
MAIS DEVIENT TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS FAVORABLE A COURT TERME: POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT, CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES BONNE COTE SUD
MAIS PLUS LIMITEE COTE NORD, ET UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE D'EST-NORD-EST
FAIBLISSANT TEMPORAIREMENT. L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST CE SOIR ET DEMAIN LUI PERMET DE MIEUX RESISTER A CE
CISAILLEMENT ET DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE MAINTENIR LE SEUIL DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AU COURS DE SON TRANSIT VERS MADAGASCAR. LA
PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE REND SUSCEPTIBLE DE CONNAITRE DES
FLUCTUATIONS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE, QUI POURRAIENT ETRE PLUS
IMPORTANTES QUE DANS LA PREVISION ACTUELLE. CEPENDANT, LA FAIBLESSE
DE L'ALIMENTATION HUMIDE PAR LE NORD RESTE ASSEZ LIMITATIVE POUR
PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE DE DUMAKO, QUI DEVRAIT ATTERIR
AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR.
TRANSISTANT SUR TERRE, L'OPTION DOMINANTE EST ENSUITE EN FAVEUR D'UNE
DISSIPATION PROGRESSIVE DU SYSTEME PUIS D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER TRES
ATTENUE SOUS FORME D'UNE LARGE ZONE DEPRESSIONNAIRE NE PRESENTANT PAS
DE RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES:
-ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION: AU VU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME ET
DE SON PASSAGE A PLUS DE 400 KM PLUS AU NORD, LES ILES SOEURS NE
SERONT PAS IMPACTEES PAR LE SYSTEME.
-MADAGASCAR: UNE DEGRADATION SIGNIFICATIVE DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE EN JOURNEE ET SOIREE DE MARDI SUR LE
SECTEUR ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE-MARIE ET ANTALAHA. DE FORTES PLUIES
(50-100 MM EN MOINS DE 24H POSSIBLES ENTRE TOAMASINA ET ANTALAHA,
AVEC DES POINTES LOCALES A 200-300MM PROBABLES PRES DE SAINTE-MARIE)
ET DE FORTES RAFALES DE VENTS (80-100 KM/H) SONT ATTENDUES A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE. DE PLUS, COMPTE TENU
DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, LES ZONES EVENTUELLEMENT IMPACTEES
DEVRAIENT ETRE PEU ETENDUES. LES POPULATIONS DE CES ZONES EST INVITEE
A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/4/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 58.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/14 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2022/02/14 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2022/02/15 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2022/02/15 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2022/02/16 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

AT 1430UTC, FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE
OBSERVATIONS OF SAINT BRANDON, THE THRESHOLD OF 34KT HAS BEEN
VALIDATED. THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS NAMED THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DUMAKO. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE CONFIGURATION IN CDO ALLOWS TO MAINTAIN A DVORAK
ANALYSIS AT 3.0, LEAVING STILL ESTIMATED WINDS OF ABOUT 40KT. THE GPM
MICROWAVE PASS OF 1533UTC ALLOWS TO VALIDATE THIS SMALL INCREASE OF
DUMAKO INTENSITY WHILE THE 1729UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOWS TO VALIDATE
VALUES OF 35KT WHICH COULD BE SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATED BECAUSE OF THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEFINES THE MAIN DIRECTION OF DUMAKO'S TRACK,
WITH A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE PASS MORE THAN 400 KM FROM MAURITIUS AND
REUNION THIS MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WITH THE FILLING OF THE RIDGE, THE
TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR
BETWEEN SAINT MARY'S ISLAND AND ANTALAHA, ON TUESDAY BETWEEN MIDDAY
AND EVENING. THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK WITH A SCENARIO A
LITTLE MORE NORTH-WEST IN CASE THE SYSTEM WOULD BE OF WEAKER
INTENSITY AND THUS DIRECTED BY SLIGHTLY LOWER STEERING FLOWS. THIS
SCENARIO IS NOT FOLLOWED FOR THE MOMENT BY THE RSMC OF THE REUNION.
THEREAFTER, THE WEAKNESS OF THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORESEE
AN EXIT AT SEA OTHER THAN IN THE FORM OF A LARGE DEPRESSION ZONE OVER
THE NORTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE FORECAST OF THE RSMC TRACK
STOPS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS MIXED BUT
TEMPORARILY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT TERM: SUFFICIENT
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT
MORE LIMITED ON THE NORTH COAST, AND A MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR
TEMPORARILY WEAKENING. THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW ALLOWS IT TO BETTER RESIST
THIS SHEAR AND SHOULD ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN THE THRESHOLD OF MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM DURING ITS TRANSIT TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY, WHICH COULD BE GREATER THAN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
HOWEVER, THE WEAKNESS OF THE WET FEEDING FROM THE NORTH IS STILL
LIMITING ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FRANK INTENSIFICATION OF DUMAKO, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LAND AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ON THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. TRANSITING ON LAND, THE DOMINANT OPTION IS THEN IN FAVOR
OF A PROGRESSIVE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN AN EXIT AT SEA
VERY ATTENUATED IN THE FORM OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE AREA PRESENTING
NO RISK OF REINTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION: GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
PASSAGE MORE THAN 400 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENE, MAURITIUS AND
REUNION ISLANDS WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY THE SYSTEM.
-MADAGASCAR: A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DURING THE DAYTIME AND FOLLOWING NIGHT SOMEWHERE
MAINLY BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AND ANTALAHA. HEAVY RAINFALL
(50-100 MM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND
ANTALAHA, WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 200-300MM LIKELY NEAR
SAINTE-MARIE) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS (80-100 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL AREA. MOREOVER, CONSIDERING THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POSSIBLE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED. LOCAL POPULATION IS INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 131759
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 13/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (DUMAKO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 58.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WTHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/14 AT 06 UTC:
16.1 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/14 AT 18 UTC:
16.4 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 12S SIO 220213071103
2022021306 12S TWELVE 001 01 255 07 SATL 020
T000 149S 0609E 035 R034 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 155S 0593E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 162S 0572E 035 R034 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 166S 0547E 035 R034 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 166S 0526E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 150S 0495E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 60.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 60.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.5S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.2S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.6S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.0S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 60.5E.
13FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
1222021018 113S 622E 15
1222021100 117S 628E 15
1222021106 121S 631E 15
1222021112 123S 627E 15
1222021118 124S 625E 25
1222021200 128S 630E 25
1222021206 137S 629E 25
1222021212 141S 624E 25
1222021218 142S 620E 30
1222021300 147S 616E 30
1222021306 149S 609E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 60.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 60.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.5S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.2S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.6S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.0S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 60.5E.
13FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

>

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