Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTELLE-22
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 220411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 22.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 126.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2022 0 22.4N 126.8W 1007 24
1200UTC 22.07.2022 12 22.8N 128.5W 1010 22
0000UTC 23.07.2022 24 23.1N 130.3W 1011 22
1200UTC 23.07.2022 36 23.4N 132.0W 1013 21
0000UTC 24.07.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.9N 108.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2022 132 12.4N 109.7W 1006 29
0000UTC 28.07.2022 144 12.9N 111.5W 1004 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 220411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 126.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.07.2022 22.4N 126.8W WEAK
12UTC 22.07.2022 22.8N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2022 23.1N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2022 23.4N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.9N 108.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.07.2022 12.4N 109.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.07.2022 12.9N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220411

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 212038
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Estelle Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Estelle has not produced a significant amount of deep convection
for the past 12 hours or so. Therefore the system no longer
qualifies as a tropical cyclone and this will be the last advisory.
The remnant low of Estelle should continue to gradually spin down
and degenerate into a trough by this weekend. This is consistent
with the forecasts from global models.

Visible satellite imagery shows that the low-level center is a
little farther south of the previous track forecast. The updated
prediction reflects this slight southward shift. The post-tropical
cyclone should move westward or a little north of westward in the
low-level winds for the next couple of days.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 22.3N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 22/0600Z 22.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1800Z 22.9N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z 23.1N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 23.3N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 212036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Estelle Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...ESTELLE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 126.5W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Estelle was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 126.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19
km/h) and a westward to slightly north of westward motion is
expected to continue until dissipation this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Estelle is expected to weaken further and dissipate by this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 212034
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
2100 UTC THU JUL 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 126.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 126.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 126.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.6N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.1N 130.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.3N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 126.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (ESTELLE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (ESTELLE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 22.1N 123.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 123.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.6N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 23.0N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.2N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 23.4N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.5N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
211000Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 124.4W.
21JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 06E (ESTELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 729
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 211600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (ESTELLE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (ESTELLE) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.6N 125.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 125.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.0N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.4N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.6N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.8N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 125.6W.
21JUL22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (ESTELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
737 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (ESTELLE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (ESTELLE) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 21.4N 121.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 121.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.0N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.5N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.9N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.2N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 23.4N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202200Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 122.3W.
20JUL22. TROPICAL STORM 06E (ESTELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 719
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND
212200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 211612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 124.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.07.2022 0 22.2N 124.9W 1005 28
0000UTC 22.07.2022 12 22.6N 127.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 22.07.2022 24 23.0N 128.9W 1010 23
0000UTC 23.07.2022 36 23.4N 130.6W 1012 22
1200UTC 23.07.2022 48 23.6N 132.5W 1013 22
0000UTC 24.07.2022 60 23.7N 134.3W 1014 22
1200UTC 24.07.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 11.1N 105.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2022 144 12.1N 106.5W 1007 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211611

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 211612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.07.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 124.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.07.2022 22.2N 124.9W WEAK
00UTC 22.07.2022 22.6N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2022 23.0N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2022 23.4N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2022 23.6N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2022 23.7N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 11.1N 105.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.07.2022 12.1N 106.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211611

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 211441
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Estelle Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Estelle has diminished to a swirl of mostly low- to mid-level
clouds with very little organized deep convection. Subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT agree that the
surface wind speeds are now around 30 kt. Based on these
estimates, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression.
Estelle should remain over cold water and continue to weaken. Unless
there is a significant redevelopment of deep convection, the system
is likely to be designated as a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Estelle continues to move west-northwestward at 11 kt while being
steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.
A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected until the
system opens up into a trough in a couple of days. The official
forecast is shifted slightly north of the previous prediction and is
in line with the new track model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 22.7N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 211440
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Estelle Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 125.5W
ABOUT 995 MI...1595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Estelle
was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 125.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h). A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Estelle is expected to weaken further and
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low later today and
dissipate this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 211440
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 125.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 125.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 210835
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...ESTELLE BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 124.3W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 124.3 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Estelle is
expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low later today
and dissipate this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 210411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 122.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.07.2022 0 21.4N 122.8W 1002 34
1200UTC 21.07.2022 12 22.2N 124.7W 1005 30
0000UTC 22.07.2022 24 22.7N 126.8W 1007 26
1200UTC 22.07.2022 36 22.9N 128.6W 1009 23
0000UTC 23.07.2022 48 23.2N 130.1W 1011 22
1200UTC 23.07.2022 60 23.5N 131.9W 1013 22
0000UTC 24.07.2022 72 23.4N 133.8W 1014 22
1200UTC 24.07.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 210411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 122.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.07.2022 21.4N 122.8W WEAK
12UTC 21.07.2022 22.2N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2022 22.7N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2022 22.9N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2022 23.2N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2022 23.5N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2022 23.4N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210411

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 210239
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Convection near the center of Estelle has actually cooled a bit from
earlier today, with cloud tops below -60C currently covering the
circulation center, though the areal extent is quite small. Despite
this activity, Dvorak satellite classifications continue to slowly
decrease, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt for
this advisory. This brief convective resurgence is likely the
storm's last gasp before even cooler sea-surface temperatures below
22 C and an increasingly dry and stable airmass choke off the
remaining core convection. The latest forecast still shows Estelle
become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours, with this low
opening up into a trough in 2-3 days.

Estelle may be finally starting to slow down, with its latest motion
estimated at 290/10 kt. The track guidance continues to indicate
that the storm should slow down further over the next day or so as
Estelle transitions from being steered by a mid-level ridge to its
northeast to a broader low-level ridge located across the northern
Pacific. The tightly clustered track guidance has shifted close to
the previous NHC forecast track and few changes were needed for this
forecast cycle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 21.8N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 22.2N 124.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 22.6N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1200Z 23.0N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0000Z 23.2N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1200Z 23.3N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 210234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...ESTELLE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 123.2W
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 123.2 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 210233
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0300 UTC THU JUL 21 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 123.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 123.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.2N 124.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.3N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 123.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 202039
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Small bursts of convection continue near and over the center of
Estelle, but this convection is not especially deep with coldest
cloud tops of around -50 to -55 degrees C. A recent scatterometer
pass over the center showed surface winds not exceeding 40 kt. To
account for undersampling, the initial intensity estimate is only
reduced to 45 kt. This is also consistent with the Dvorak current
intensity estimate from TAFB. The scatterometer data also revealed
that tropical-storm-force winds are only occurring over the northern
semicircle of the cyclone. Estelle is currently over sea surface
temperatures of around 23 degrees C. The storm is expected to be
over even cooler waters within a day, likely inhibiting convection.
The official forecast shows Estelle becoming a post-tropical remnant
low within a day and dissipated within 72 hours.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward at a slightly faster 13 kt.
However, the tightly clustered guidance insists that the cyclone's
forward speed will be decreasing over the next couple of days. A
large mid-level ridge associated with a high pressure system
centered over the southwestern US should continue to steer Estelle
in the same general direction through the forecast period. The NHC
track prediction is a little bit faster than the forecast from the
previous advisory and a little north of the multi-model consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 22.0N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 22.5N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 22.9N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z 23.2N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0600Z 23.4N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 202035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...ESTELLE WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 122.3W
ABOUT 795 MI...1285 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 122.3 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 202034
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
2100 UTC WED JUL 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 122.3W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 122.3W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 121.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 123.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.2N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 201611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 120.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.07.2022 21.1N 120.3W MODERATE
00UTC 21.07.2022 21.8N 122.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2022 22.6N 124.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2022 23.3N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2022 23.6N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2022 23.7N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2022 23.6N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2022 23.8N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 10.0N 99.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.07.2022 10.7N 101.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201611

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 201438
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Estelle continues to fire off a small burst of convection close to
and just southeast of its nearly exposed low-level circulation. A
microwave pass from 0951 UTC showed only one banded feature in the
northeastern quadrant. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranged
from 55 kt to 35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 50 kt.
Weakening is expected to resume through the forecast period as the
storm passes over increasingly cooler waters. Estelle is predicted
to be a post-tropical cyclone within a day. The official intensity
prediction follows the model consensus aids and there have been no
major changes from the previous advisory forecast.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. Estelle
is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast
and the west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is likely to continue through 72 hours. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous prediction and close the TVCE
consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 201436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 120.7W
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 120.7 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Estelle
is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 201435
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 120.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 120.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 200835
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Estelle's cloud pattern has been reduced to small bursts of deep
convection near its center this morning. A 0427 UTC GMI microwave
pass revealed a couple of fragmented curved bands around its
circulation, but cloud top temperatures in this region have warmed
during the past several hours. Unfortunately, scatterometer data
failed to sample the inner core of Estelle this morning. A blend of
the current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and
SAB (T3.0/45 kt) support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt.

A mid-level ridge to the northeast of Estelle is steering the
tropical storm toward the west-northwest at 295/12 kt. This general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected for the
next couple of days or so. Then, a westward turn is forecast as the
shallow, weakening system becomes steered by the low-level easterly
trade winds. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
one and remains near the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

Decreasing SSTs along Estelle's path will make it increasingly
difficult for the cyclone to sustain deep, organized convection
during the next couple of days. Continued weakening is expected, and
Estelle is likely to lose all convection by Thursday as it moves
into a drier and more stable environment over sub-22 deg C waters.
The latest NHC forecast calls for Estelle to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Thursday and dissipate this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 20.6N 119.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 21.1N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 21.7N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 22.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z 23.0N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z 23.1N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 200833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...ESTELLE WEAKENS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 119.4W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 119.4 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 200833
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0900 UTC WED JUL 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.4W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.4W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.1N 121.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 123.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.7N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.1N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 119.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 200411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 117.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2022 0 19.9N 117.8W 992 52
1200UTC 20.07.2022 12 20.9N 120.3W 993 45
0000UTC 21.07.2022 24 21.7N 122.6W 997 41
1200UTC 21.07.2022 36 22.5N 124.7W 1002 34
0000UTC 22.07.2022 48 23.3N 126.8W 1005 29
1200UTC 22.07.2022 60 23.7N 128.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 23.07.2022 72 23.9N 130.4W 1010 24
1200UTC 23.07.2022 84 24.2N 131.8W 1012 21
0000UTC 24.07.2022 96 24.5N 133.2W 1014 23
1200UTC 24.07.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.0N 98.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.07.2022 144 10.0N 98.7W 1007 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 200411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 117.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.07.2022 19.9N 117.8W MODERATE
12UTC 20.07.2022 20.9N 120.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2022 21.7N 122.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2022 22.5N 124.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2022 23.3N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2022 23.7N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2022 23.9N 130.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2022 24.2N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2022 24.5N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.0N 98.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.07.2022 10.0N 98.7W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200411

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 200235
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Compared to 24 hours ago, Estelle's cloud shield is more symmetric,
though the coldest cloud-top temperatures have been warming this
evening. The increased symmetry is likely due in part to afternoon
convection that was finally able to wrap around the northern
semicircle of the cyclone, as recently seen on a 0002 UTC SSMIS
microwave pass. This structural change was also likely aided by a
reduction in vertical wind shear today which is now estimated to be
less than 5 kt in the 0000 UTC SHIPS guidance. Dvorak satellite
estimates remain unchanged from earlier today, and given the earlier
peak scatterometer wind retrievals in the 50-52 kt range, the
initial intensity will be maintained at 55 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm continues to track off to the west-northwest,
with the latest motion estimated at 290/12 kt. A continued
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days,
albeit with a gradual bend westward as the cyclone becomes
vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level
easterlies. Few changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast,
and the current track remains close to the consensus aids TVCE and
HCCA.

Estelle is currently crossing the 25C sea surface temperature (SST)
isotherm and even cooler SSTs lie along the storm's path. Even with
the lower vertical wind shear, these cooler waters in combination
with an increasingly dry and stable atmosphere should cause the
cyclone to gradually weaken over the next 24-48 hours. This forecast
is in line with the intensity guidance consensus. Organized
convection is likely to gradually fade away by 48 hours, when
Estelle will be over 21C SSTs, and the latest forecast makes the
system a post-tropical remnant low at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 20.2N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 20.8N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 21.4N 121.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 22.8N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 23.0N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 23.0N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 200234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...ESTELLE STILL A 65 MPH TROPICAL STORM BUT WEAKENING SHOULD
RESUME TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 118.0W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 118.0 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and
Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 200233
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 118.0W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 118.0W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.8N 119.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 121.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.0N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 23.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 118.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 192037
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Deep convection reformed over the center today while the vertical
wind shear abated. Data from a recent scatterometer pass showed
that Estelle still has winds of at least 55 kt, which will be used
for the advisory intensity. This is a little above most of the
Dvorak estimates.

Based on the current intensity trend and the forecast for weak
vertical wind shear, it seems possible that Estelle may maintain its
strength for about 12 hours while over marginal sea surface
temperatures. Within a day or so, the storm is forecast to be over
even cooler waters and within a drier mid- to low-level environment
which should result in weakening. Estelle is predicted to be a
remnant low in a couple of days. The official intensity forecast is
close the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance.

The forward motion of the storm has increased slightly to 12 kt
while Estelle moves west-northwestward around the periphery of a
mid-level ridge. This general trajectory is likely to continue for
the next few days until the weakening circulation becomes more
shallow and is steered by the low-level winds. The NHC track
forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory prediction,
and is quite similar to the multi-model consensus aid, TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.5N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 20.1N 118.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 22.2N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 22.9N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 192033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...ESTELLE MAINTAINING INTENSITY FOR NOW...
...SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 116.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 116.9 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight, but
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Estelle is likely to
become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 192033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
2100 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 116.9W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 116.9W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 118.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.2N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 116.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 191610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.07.2022

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 115.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.07.2022 18.8N 115.6W MODERATE
00UTC 20.07.2022 19.8N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2022 20.8N 120.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2022 21.6N 123.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.07.2022 22.5N 124.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2022 23.3N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2022 23.6N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2022 23.6N 131.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2022 23.6N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2022 23.8N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191610

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 191443
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Estelle remains quite disorganized this morning, with most of the
fragmented convection over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation. The storm center passed just north of Clarion Island
where an automated Mexican Navy weather station measured winds near
tropical-storm-force strength. The central pressure of Estelle was
adjusted slightly lower based on the reported observations. Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB ranged from 65 kt to 45 kt,
respectively and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt to represent
a blend of the classifications.

A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue through the
forecast period. While the vertical wind shear is not expected to
be strong, the center of Estelle is now crossing over sea surface
temperatures cooler than 26 degrees C and into a drier, more stable
air mass. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions will make it
difficult for the storm to retain or develop organized deep
convection. This should result in a gradual spindown of the
circulation. The official intensity forecast follows the
multi-model consensus guidance and now predicts Estelle to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

The track philosophy is unchanged. Estelle is moving
west-northwestward at 10 kt and is following the steering currents
of a mid-level ridge to its north-northeast. This motion is
predicted to continue for the next couple of days until the storm
becomes a remnant low and turns westward in the low-level trade
winds. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous
advisory and close to the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 191438
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 115.5W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 115.5 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast and Estelle is likely to become a
post-tropical cyclone by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle will diminish along the coasts
of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 191437
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 190836
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Northerly shear continues to take a toll on Estelle. Its low-level
center appears to be partially exposed in proxy visible satellite
imagery, with its associated deep convection limited in coverage and
confined to the southern and eastern portions of its circulation.
Estelle is no longer a hurricane, and recent ASCAT-B and -C data
showed peak derived winds of 45-50 kt in the northeast quadrant of
the cyclone. After accounting for some undersampling, the initial
intensity of Estelle is lowered to 55 kt for this advisory.

Estelle is expected to continue weakening. Although the deep-layer
shear is likely to diminish within the next 12-24 h, the cyclone
will cross the 26 deg C isotherm later today and move over
progressively cooler SSTs through midweek. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the multi-model consensus and calls for steady
weakening over the next few days. Simulated satellite imagery from
the GFS and ECMWF models indicate the cyclone will struggle to
generate deep, organized convection later this week as it moves into
a drier and more stable airmass. Estelle is forecast to degenerate
into a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday, but it could take a
couple more days for the low to open into a trough and dissipate.

The initial motion of Estelle is westward at 280/11 kt, but it is
expected to turn west-northwestward later today as it moves around
the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern
United States. This ridge will keep Estelle on a west-northwestward
heading for the next few days. As the cyclone spins down and becomes
more vertically shallow, the low-level trade wind flow should steer
the remnant low more westward on days 4-5. The NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous one and remains near the HCCA and TVCE
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.6N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.9N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 21.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 22.3N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 22.7N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z 22.7N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 190834
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 114.7W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 114.7 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slight turn toward
the west-northwest is expected later today, and this general motion
should continue through midweek.

Satellite derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, and
Estelle is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low
on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. An automated Mexican Navy weather station on
Clarion Island recently reported a gust of 44 mph (70 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the
southern Baja California peninsula today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 190833
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0900 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.7W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 135SE 90SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.7W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.9N 118.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 123.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.3N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.7N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.7N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 114.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 190410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.07.2022

HURRICANE ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 113.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2022 0 18.1N 113.3W 985 55
1200UTC 19.07.2022 12 18.7N 115.7W 989 52
0000UTC 20.07.2022 24 19.6N 118.3W 992 49
1200UTC 20.07.2022 36 20.7N 120.8W 994 47
0000UTC 21.07.2022 48 21.7N 123.3W 998 39
1200UTC 21.07.2022 60 22.5N 125.4W 1004 33
0000UTC 22.07.2022 72 23.0N 127.2W 1008 27
1200UTC 22.07.2022 84 23.1N 129.0W 1010 24
0000UTC 23.07.2022 96 23.1N 130.8W 1012 23
1200UTC 23.07.2022 108 22.7N 132.5W 1014 20
0000UTC 24.07.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 190410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.07.2022

HURRICANE ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 113.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.07.2022 18.1N 113.3W MODERATE
12UTC 19.07.2022 18.7N 115.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.07.2022 19.6N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2022 20.7N 120.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2022 21.7N 123.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.07.2022 22.5N 125.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2022 23.0N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2022 23.1N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2022 23.1N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2022 22.7N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190410

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 190238
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Estelle's structure has continued to go downhill this afternoon and
evening. While upper-level outflow is fanning out westward ahead of
the hurricane, last light visible satellite imagery continues to
indicate that the low-level center remains displaced to the
northwest of the coldest cloud tops. In fact, an earlier AMSR2
microwave pass at 2057 UTC showed increasing separation between the
low-level center on the 37-GHz channel and the mid-level center on
the 89-GHz channel. This southeast tilt with height also appears to
be captured well on the most recent HWRF run, and is likely the
result of continued northwesterly shear undercutting the outflow
layer, helping import dry stable air into Estelle's core. Satellite
intensity estimates have been gradually decreasing, though an
earlier ASCAT-C pass at 1722 UTC still showed peak winds of 61-kt in
the northeast quadrant of the circulation. Assuming some
undersampling, the initial intensity is lowered to only 65 kt this
advisory, though this could be generous.

It seems that Estelle's time left to intensify has run out. In fact,
the hurricane has already been gradually weakening over the past day
or so. While the current moderate northwesterly shear is expected to
subside some over the next 24 hours, the cyclone will be moving over
sub 26 C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) by that time span. Thus,
the latest intensity forecast now shows Estelle gradually weakening
over the next 24-48 hours, with more pronounced weakening thereafter
when SSTs drop below 23 C. Simulated IR brightness temperature data
from the ECMWF and CMC models suggest Estelle will cease to produce
organized deep convection by 72 hours, and the system is forecast to
become a post-tropical remnant low by then. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is now more in line with the intensity guidance consensus,
though early on favors a blend of the HWRF/HMON forecasts, which
appear to be correctly capturing the current tilted structure of the
cyclone well.

Estelle has been taking a slight leftward bend in its recent track,
but in general has maintained a west-northwestward heading at 285/12
kt. A prominent mid-level ridge located to the northeast of Estelle
should maintain the cyclone on a west-northwest heading at a similar
motion for the next 2-3 days. Thereafter, as the system becomes more
vertically shallow, its track is forecast to bend back westward as
it becomes more steered by the low-level easterly trade winds. The
latest track forecast is very close to the prior forecast, taking a
blend of the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE.

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.3N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 18.7N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 21.3N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 22.8N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z 23.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 190233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...ESTELLE BARELY A HURRICANE...
...NOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 113.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 113.6 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next day
or two followed by more pronounced weakening, and Estelle is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone towards the end of
the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for
the next day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 190232
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0300 UTC TUE JUL 19 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 113.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 113.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 115.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 122.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.8N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 113.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (ESTELLE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (ESTELLE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 111.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 111.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.5N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.1N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.9N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.8N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.8N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.6N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.4N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.5N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 112.7W.
18JUL22. HURRICANE 06E (ESTELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 920 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 182036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Since this morning, the central features of Estelle have become
more ragged in appearance. An earlier SSMIS microwave pass from
1415 UTC showed a tilted vortex structure, suggesting the vertical
wind shear is preventing the hurricane from strengthening. The
objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have changed
little and the initial intensity remains at 70 kt.

Model guidance indicates Estelle only has a brief period to
intensify before moving over sea surface temperatures cooler than 25
C. However, moderate north-northwesterly wind shear is likely to
persist through tonight and inhibit significant strengthening. A
steady weakening trend is expected to begin in a day or so and
Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within a few
days. The NHC intensity forecast is just slightly above the latest
consensus model guidance.

Estelle continues to move west-northwest at 12 kt. A mid-level
ridge associated with a strong high pressure system over the
southwestern United States should provide the main steering for the
next few days. As the cyclone degenerates into a post-tropical
cyclone/remnant low, it should follow the low-level winds and turn
more westward. The official forecast is very close to the latest
corrected model consensus, HCCA.

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.2N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.5N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.9N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 21.8N 123.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 22.6N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/1800Z 23.4N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 182034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...ESTELLE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 112.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 112.5 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow,
followed by steady weakening for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for
another day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 182033
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
2100 UTC MON JUL 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 114.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 123.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.6N 125.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.4N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 181610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.07.2022

HURRICANE ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 110.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.07.2022 0 17.7N 110.8W 981 64
0000UTC 19.07.2022 12 18.4N 113.5W 987 55
1200UTC 19.07.2022 24 18.9N 116.2W 991 53
0000UTC 20.07.2022 36 19.7N 118.9W 993 52
1200UTC 20.07.2022 48 21.0N 121.6W 995 43
0000UTC 21.07.2022 60 21.9N 124.2W 999 39
1200UTC 21.07.2022 72 22.9N 126.1W 1005 30
0000UTC 22.07.2022 84 23.8N 128.1W 1009 24
1200UTC 22.07.2022 96 24.1N 129.8W 1011 21
0000UTC 23.07.2022 108 24.1N 131.7W 1013 22
1200UTC 23.07.2022 120 23.8N 133.2W 1014 20
0000UTC 24.07.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181610

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 181610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.07.2022

HURRICANE ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 110.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.07.2022 17.7N 110.8W MODERATE
00UTC 19.07.2022 18.4N 113.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.07.2022 18.9N 116.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2022 19.7N 118.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2022 21.0N 121.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2022 21.9N 124.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.07.2022 22.9N 126.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2022 23.8N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2022 24.1N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2022 24.1N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2022 23.8N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181610

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 181447
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Estelle is beginning to look a little better organized based on
satellite imagery. First-light visible pictures show the center
of the cyclone is now embedded in the central dense overcast.
Observations from Socorro Island confirm that they are within the
estimated tropical-storm-force radii. Subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 77 kt to 65 kt,
respectively. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt, representing
a blend of these estimates.

Low to moderate northerly wind shear is expected to limit the future
strengthening of the system in the next day or so. However, warm
sea surface temperatures and plenty of near-storm environmental
moisture may allow for some slight intensification within a day.
Beyond 36 hours, Estelle should cross the 26 degrees C sea surface
isotherm and move over increasingly colder waters. This and the
drier surrounding environment should cause the hurricane to weaken
to a remnant low by the weekend. The official forecast is slightly
higher than the model guidance in the short term forecast and then
follows the multi-model consensus guidance after 36 hours.

The hurricane is moving west-northwest at about 12 kt. This
general motion is predicted to continue for the next few days as
Estelle is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. Later in the
forecast period, low-level trade winds should turn the weaker
system westward. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the
previous advisory and only slightly north of the model consensus
guidance, TVCE.

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 181444
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...ESTELLE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 111.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.1 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or
so, but weakening is expected to begin around the middle of the
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). An automated Mexican Navy weather station on Socorro
Island recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and
gusts to 61 mph (98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for
another day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 181442
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 180832
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Estelle has generally changed little during the past several hours,
but the hurricane is less organized than it was 24 hours ago. The
system continues to produce a concentrated area of deep convection,
but a recent GMI microwave pass showed that northerly shear is
causing a significant asymmetry in the storm's structure. The center
is located near the northern edge of the convection and banding
features are mostly confined to the south of the center. The latest
satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 77 kt, and the
initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory. An ASCAT pass
from around 05Z indicated that the 34- and 50-kt wind radii were
larger than previously estimated.

The hurricane is expected to remain over warm water for another
24-36 hours, but north to northeasterly shear of 10-15 kt is
expected to persist during that time period. Given the storm's
current structure and continued shear, only a little strengthening
seems possible during that time period. Beyond 36 hours, Estelle
will be tracking over waters cooler than 26 C and into a drier and
more stable air mass. These conditions should cause a steady
weakening trend, and the system will likely become post-tropical in
3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is again lower than the
previous one and it lies at the high end of the guidance in the
short term, but falls in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus
models after 36 hours.

Estelle has been moving a little north of the previous forecast with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 305/11 kt. The models
show a mid-level ridge building westward to the north of Estelle,
which should cause the system to move generally west-northwestward
for the next several days. The NHC track forecast is a little to
the north of the previous one, mostly based on the initial motion
and position.

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.5N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 19.0N 116.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 20.7N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 21.8N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 23.1N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0600Z 23.7N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 180831
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...ESTELLE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 109.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 109.8 West. Estelle is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected later today, and that motion should
continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or
so, but weakening is expected to begin around the middle of the
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for
another day or two and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 180831
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0900 UTC MON JUL 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 109.8W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 109.8W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 116.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 120.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 122.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.1N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 180242
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Estelle's structure this evening is quite disheveled, with
last-light visible satellite imagery suggesting that the low-level
center was somewhat detached north from the deeper convective
activity that is more aligned with the mid-level center. We finally
received our first microwave imagery over Estelle in more than 24
hours, an AMSR2 pass at 2013 UTC, which confirmed this structure,
also indicating that the center had jogged a bit north of the
previous forecast track. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at
0000 UTC from TAFB and SAB were still 77 kt and 65 kt
respectively, but both SATCON and ADT estimates have dropped from
earlier today. The initial intensity this advisory is set at 70 kt
as a compromise from all these various estimates.

Despite the earlier northward jog, Estelle remains on a general
west-northwestward heading at 300/10 kt. A mid-level ridge is
situated north of the cyclone, and is forecast to build-in further
westward with time. The model guidance responds to this building
ridge by maintaining Estelle on a similar heading, though with a
short-term bend more westward and slight acceleration in the forward
motion. The latest track forecast shows a similar evolution, though
is on the north side of the guidance envelope early on, due to both
the further north initial position, and the somewhat leftward bias
observed in the track forecast over the past 24 hours. However, by
the end of the forecast period, the current track forecast ends up
located close to the multi-model consensus aid TVCE.

The intensity forecast is a bit problematic. Estelle appears to have
ingested dry air into its inner-core today, possibly assisted by
moderate northerly vertical wind shear under the typical 200-850 mb
layer. This shear may be a result of the current misaligned low and
mid-level centers. This inner-core structure also argues against
rapid intensification in the short-term. However, SHIPS
environmental variables still show Estelle remaining over 28C or
warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 24-36 hours
while embedded in a fairly moist mid-level environment. Assuming the
current dry-air near the core can be mixed out and the moderate
shear does not import additional dry air, intensification still
appears possible. The latest intensity forecast now indicates a more
gradual intensification rate, assuming it will take a little time
for the current core structure to recover. This intensity forecast
is still somewhat higher than the majority of the guidance. After
36 hours, Estelle will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, and be
over sub 25C waters by 60 hours. Thus, weakening is anticipated and
the latest forecast now makes Estelle post-tropical by 96 hours,
which is a little faster than before.

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.8N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 17.7N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 18.1N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 18.9N 117.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 19.8N 119.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 20.8N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 22.0N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0000Z 23.0N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 180238
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...ESTELLE A BIT WEAKER, BUT STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 108.6 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
through the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is still forecast over the next day or
so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
tonight through Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 180236
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0300 UTC MON JUL 18 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 108.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.2N 110.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.7N 112.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.1N 114.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.9N 117.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.8N 119.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 121.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 125.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.0N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 172036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Estelle has changed little in organization since this morning.
There is an apparent dry slot near the core of the circulation,
which is possibly inhibiting further intensification for the time
being. The anticyclonic outflow, banding features, and cold cloud
tops remain intact, however. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB are still 77 kt and 65 kt, respectively. Given
no changes to these estimates and the overall satellite appearance,
the initial intensity is kept at 75 kt.

The cyclone is expected to be in an atmospheric and oceanic
environment conducive for further strengthening during the next day
or so. Statistical guidance still shows the possibility of rapid
intensification in 24 hours and the official forecast remains above
all dynamical guidance through 48 hours. Thereafter, vertical wind
shear over Estelle is predicted to increase, and in 72 hours sea
surface temperatures begin to decrease significantly. This effect
should result in a fairly rapid rate of weakening.

Estelle continues moving west-northwestward at around 10 kt on the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This synoptic feature is
expected to continue to steer the hurricane in the same general
direction for the next several days. The official forecast is
practically the same as the previous NHC track and again follows the
multi-model consensus, TVCE, closely.

The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf
and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern
and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.1N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 16.7N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 17.7N 114.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 19.2N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 20.3N 121.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 21.9N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 22.8N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 172034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...ESTELLE STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 107.9W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 107.9 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
later today and Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 172033
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.9W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.9W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 109.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.7N 114.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.2N 118.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.3N 121.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 125.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 171611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 17.07.2022

HURRICANE ESTELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 106.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.07.2022 0 15.4N 106.6W 987 49
0000UTC 18.07.2022 12 16.2N 108.9W 985 52
1200UTC 18.07.2022 24 17.0N 111.1W 982 59
0000UTC 19.07.2022 36 17.7N 113.9W 986 54
1200UTC 19.07.2022 48 18.2N 116.7W 987 54
0000UTC 20.07.2022 60 19.2N 119.3W 990 53
1200UTC 20.07.2022 72 20.6N 122.1W 993 47
0000UTC 21.07.2022 84 21.6N 124.9W 997 42
1200UTC 21.07.2022 96 22.5N 127.2W 1004 31
0000UTC 22.07.2022 108 23.2N 129.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 22.07.2022 120 23.7N 130.5W 1010 21
0000UTC 23.07.2022 132 24.3N 132.0W 1012 22
1200UTC 23.07.2022 144 24.7N 133.6W 1015 20


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 171610

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 171435
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Estelle remains a well-organized hurricane this morning. There
are very cold cloud tops over the core that range between -70 to
-80 degrees Celsius, numerous and distinct banding features, and a
rather symmetric and pronounced upper-level outflow. Subjective
Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB estimated Estelle at 65 and
77 kt, respectively, and given the slightly improved satellite
presentation, the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt.

Low to moderate vertical wind shear, high low-to-mid-tropospheric
humidities, and warm sea surface temperatures are likely to prevail
through tomorrow. This should allow for further intensification.
The official forecast is above the explicit model predictions
through 48 hours since there is potential for rapid intensification
according to the statistical guidance. Beyond two days, the NHC
intensity forecast follows the model consensus and weakens Estelle
as it encounters a more hostile thermodynamic and oceanic
environment.

The system is moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or
295/10 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its
north and northeast, and should continue to head in the same
general direction for the next several days. Late in the forecast
period, when the storm weakens, the cyclone should turn westward
and follow the shallow low-level flow. The official forecast is
nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to the
multi-model consensus, TVCE.

The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf
and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern
and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 15.7N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.3N 108.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 17.4N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 19.8N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 21.6N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 22.6N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 171435
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 107.1W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 107.1 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Estelle
could become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
later today and Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 171435
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.3N 108.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.4N 113.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 118.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.6N 124.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.6N 128.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 170832
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

After strengthening during the late afternoon and evening hours,
Estelle's intensity appears to have leveled off some overnight.
The system is maintaining a central dense overcast feature and
outer curved bands. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and
CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 65 to 77 kt, and
the initial intensity is held at 70 kt based on that data.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the south side of a
mid-level ridge that is centered over the southwestern U.S. A
slightly faster motion to the west-northwest is expected during the
next several days as the ridge builds westward over the eastern
Pacific. The models are in good agreement, and the new forecast is
only a little faster than the previous one.

The hurricane is expected to remain in favorable conditions for
another day or so, therefore, steady to possibly rapid
intensification is possible during that time period. However, an
increase in northeasterly shear should cause the strengthening
trend to end in 36 to 48 hours, followed by weakening when Estelle
moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier airmass.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one
and remains at the high end of the model guidance, closest to the
SHIPS model.

The main impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern and
west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 15.1N 105.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 18.1N 116.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 19.0N 118.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 21.1N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 22.5N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 170831
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 105.9 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Estelle
could become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
later today and Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 170831
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0900 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.1N 116.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N 118.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.1N 123.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 127.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 170237
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

After taking a breather this afternoon, Estelle's inner-core
convection came back with a vengeance as a burst began around 2100
UTC and continued to organize around the center through the evening.
There have been no microwave images since this morning to help
assess the cyclone's structure, but the 00 UTC Dvorak fix from TAFB
and the UW-CIMSS ADT support Estelle's upgrade to a hurricane. The
ADT ticked up a bit since then with a warm spot developing within
the Central Dense Overcast, so the advisory intensity is set at 70
kt. Either way, Estelle has rapidly intensified by at least 30 kt
over the past 24 hours.

Continued rapid intensification (RI) appears likely during the next
24 hours while Estelle moves over very warm waters of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and benefits from high values of upper-level divergence
and generally low shear. The conventional RI and DTOPS indices from
the GFS and ECWMF versions of SHIPS are still quite high, ranging
from a 50 to 75 percent chance of another 30-kt increase in
intensity over the next 24 hours. As a result, the NHC intensity
forecast is near the top end of the guidance and explicit shows
RI, with Estelle expected to reach a peak intensity of 100 kt as
a major hurricane by 36 hours. Intensification is likely to level
off around that time as environmental conditions become a little
less ideal, and Estelle is expected to begin weakening over colder
waters by day 3. The NHC forecast remains near the upper end of
the guidance during Estelle's expected weakening phase.

The current motion remains west-northwestward at 295/8 kt. A
mid-level ridge located over the southwestern United States is
expected to strengthen and expand westward over the Pacific Ocean
in the coming days, which should continue steering Estelle toward
the west-northwest at a slightly faster pace. The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the only notable update in this NHC
forecast is that it's a little faster than the afternoon forecast
in order to be more in line with the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids,
as well as the ECWMF solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 14.7N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 16.6N 110.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 17.0N 112.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 17.5N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 18.3N 117.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 20.4N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 22.3N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 170236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...ESTELLE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY TO A HURRICANE...
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 105.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 105.0 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected through Tuesday.

Estelle is rapidly intensifying, and maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued
rapid intensification is likely through Sunday, and Estelle is
forecast to become a major hurricane by Sunday night. Some
weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula on
Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 170236
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0300 UTC SUN JUL 17 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.0W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.0W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.6N 110.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 112.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 115.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 117.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 122.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 126.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 105.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 162035
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Estelle does not look quite as impressive as it did this morning in
conventional satellite imagery. Its structure consists of a small,
ragged inner core with several curved outer bands that wrap around
its center. Northeasterly shear continues to impinge on the
cyclone, which could be importing some drier mid-level air into the
circulation. The latest subjective and objective satellite estimates
range from 55-65 kt, and without new microwave data to better assess
any structural changes, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt.

Despite a brief pause in intensification, environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for more strengthening during the next
couple of days. Overall, the latest intensity guidance favors steady
to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h as Estelle crosses
very warm SSTs in a moist and unstable environment. The persistent
moderate deep-layer shear is a concern, but only a small improvement
in its inner core structure should allow the small cyclone to resume
strengthening tonight. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the
higher end of the guidance, closest to SHIPS/LGEM and slightly above
HCCA, and shows peak intensity as a major hurricane in 36-48 h.
Then, increasing northerly shear and decreasing SSTs along the
forecast track should cause Estelle to weaken through the middle of
next week, as it moves into a drier mid-level environment.

Estelle is still moving west-northwestward at 295/8 kt. The track
reasoning has not changed, and the cyclone should generally maintain
a west-northwestward heading during the next several days as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United
States. The NHC track forecast is just slightly left of the previous
track, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 14.2N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 14.7N 105.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 16.2N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 16.8N 111.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 17.2N 113.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 17.9N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 162034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON AND STRENGTHEN MORE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 104.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 104.4 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Estelle is expected to become a hurricane by this evening and could
become a major hurricane by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula on
Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 162033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
2100 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.7N 105.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.8N 111.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.2N 113.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.9N 116.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 104.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 161448
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Estelle has continued to strengthen this morning. Earlier passive
microwave imagery indicated the vortex was slightly tilted in the
vertical, likely due to 10-15 kt of deep-layer northeasterly shear
over the small cyclone. The mid-level eye feature was still open on
the upshear side, but recent satellite trends show an expanding
central dense overcast with -75 to -80 deg C cloud tops spreading
over its center. The 12 UTC objective and subjective satellite
estimates were all at 55 kt, but given the recent improved satellite
presentation and an uptick in the ADT estimates, the advisory
intensity is set at 60 kt.

Further strengthening is expected as Estelle moves within a moist
and unstable environment over very warm SSTs. Of course, this
assumes that Estelle is able to close off its inner core to help
resist the negative effects of continued moderate (10-15 kt)
deep-layer shear. The latest intensity guidance unanimously supports
at least steady strengthening over the next 24-36 h, and SHIPS/LGEM
favor rapid intensification (RI) with some indications that the
shear could weaken a bit later today. The NHC intensity forecast is
higher than the previous one and explicitly forecasts RI, generally
between the multi-model consensus and the most aggressive SHIPS/LGEM
aids. Estelle is expected to become a hurricane later today, and it
is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Monday. Later next
week, increasing shear and decreasing SSTs along its track should
lead to a weakening trend on days 3-5.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 9 kt. A
mid-level ridge entrenched over the southwestern U.S. should keep
steering Estelle west-northwestward during the next several days.
There is increased spread in the track guidance on days 3-5, with
the GFS on the far northern edge of the guidance envelope and the
ECWMF and UKMET faster and much farther south. The NHC track
forecast is nudged just a bit south of the previous one in the
extended range, but still lies slightly to the north of the TVCE and
HCCA aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 14.0N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 161447
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...ESTELLE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 103.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 103.7 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts, and continued strengthening is expected during
the next day or two. Estelle is likely to become a hurricane later
today, and it is forecast to become a major hurricane by early
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are beginning to affect portions
of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the
coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 161447
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 103.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 160836
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Estelle has become much better organized during the past several
hours. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that
deep convection has increased near the center and an inner core has
formed. An ASCAT pass from around 05Z showed maximum winds of around
40 kt, but since Estelle is a compact tropical cyclone it likely did
not resolve its peak winds. The Dvorak classifications at 06Z from
TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin were all 3.0/45
kt. Since Estelle has continued to organize since then, the initial
intensity is increased to 50 kt for this advisory, in line with the
latest automated values from CIMSS.

The tropical storm seems poised to strengthen further as Estelle is
expected to remain in generally favorable atmospheric and oceanic
conditions. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) Index shows about
50 percent of RI occurring, and given the environment and
well-defined structure, the NHC forecast now calls for RI to occur
during the next 24 hours. After that time, increasing shear should
cause the intensity to plateau in the 36-72 hour period, followed by
weakening when Estelle moves over cooler waters and into a drier air
mass. This forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and
lies near the high end of the model guidance.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to gradually build
westward, which should keep Estelle on a general west-northwest
track during the next several days. The models have shifted a
little to the south and are faster this cycle, and the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. This prediction still lies
on the northern side of the guidance envelope at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 13.6N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 14.3N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 15.0N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 17.6N 114.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 19.1N 118.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 20.9N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 160835
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...ESTELLE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 103.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 103.1 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is expected during the
next day or two, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane by
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are expected to begin affecting
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and
will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the
southern Baja California peninsula Sunday and Monday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 160834
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 103.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 102.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.3N 104.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 105.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 118.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.9N 123.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 160235
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

A series of microwave images since the last advisory show that the
depression's low-level structure has become better defined, with
the center nearly surrounded by a cyan ring in the 37-GHz channel.
In addition, a tight band of deep convection with cloud tops colder
than -80 degrees Celsius has been persisting near the center.
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T2.5, so the
depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Estelle with 35-kt winds.
However, this could be a conservative estimate given the improved
structure, and objective intensity estimates are running slightly
higher.

The initial motion is a little faster toward the northwest, or
310/9 kt, but satellite location fixes suggest the storm is
beginning to turn toward the west-northwest as expected. Mid-level
ridging is forecast to be entrenched over the southwestern United
States for the next 5 days, which should steer Estelle on a general
west-northwestward heading for the entirety of the forecast period.
There is not much spread among the track guidance, at least
cross-track wise, but it is notable that the GFS solution is a bit
slower than the other reliable guidance. The NHC track forecast is
just a little slower than the consensus aids to account for that
slower scenario, and this update is not too different from the
previous forecast.

Despite Estelle's improved structure, a sharp edge on the eastern
side of the deep convection in infrared imagery suggests there is
still some shear affecting the cyclone, and SHIPS is showing 10-15
kt of deep-layer shear out of the northeast. The GFS and ECMWF
versions of SHIPS differ a bit on when that shear will decrease,
although both versions show Estelle benefiting from high values of
upper-level divergence for the next 24-48 hours. Combined with
high oceanic heat content and the cyclone's well-defined low-level
structure, rapid intensification (RI) is a realistic possibility,
and some guidance is showing a 50/50 chance of RI during the next
24 hours. The NHC official intensity forecast hedges on the high
side of the guidance but stops just short of showing explicit RI
given the uncertainties on how much vertical shear will decrease.
Continued strengthening could occur through day 3, but colder
waters are likely to induce weakening on days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 13.2N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 13.9N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 16.0N 107.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 16.7N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 18.8N 116.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 20.8N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 160234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 102.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Estelle is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by Saturday morning, with that
heading at a similar forward speed continuing through late Monday.
Estelle is forecast to move parallel to but well offshore the coast
of southwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next few days, and Estelle could become a hurricane by Saturday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are expected to begin affecting
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico late Saturday and
will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the
southern Baja California peninsula Sunday and Monday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 160234
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
0300 UTC SAT JUL 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 102.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 102.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 101.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.9N 103.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 107.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.8N 116.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 102.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 152034
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Metop-B and -C scatterometer data today show the depression has a
well-defined surface circulation with a couple areas of 25-30 kt
winds to the north and northeast of its center. Overall, the deep
convection has become more fragmented this afternoon, although there
is new convective development near its center noted in recent
visible and infrared satellite imagery. Based on the scatterometer
winds, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The center of the depression has been relocated about 20-30 n mi
northeast of previous estimates based on scatterometer winds and
microwave data, and its initial motion is northwestward at 315/7 kt.
However, it is expected to resume a more west-northwestward heading
by tonight as it becomes steered by a mid-level ridge well to its
north. This track should keep the cyclone well offshore of
southwestern Mexico as it moves roughly parallel to the coast during
the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to continue
west-northwestward with a slight increase in forward speed on days
3-5 as the steering ridge remains entrenched to its north. The
latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the
previous one, largely a product of the center relocation and
its effect on the near-term track.

Strengthening is expected during the next several days as the
atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable along its track.
Very warm SSTs, abundant mid-level moisture, and weak to moderate
deep-layer northeasterly shear should provide a conducive
environment for intensification through early next week, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Sunday. The SHIPS
guidance continues to highlight the potential for some significant
strengthening, and the official NHC forecast remains on the high end
of the guidance between SHIPS and the IVCN consensus aid. The
deep-layer shear is forecast to increase by 72-96 h, and this
combined with cooler SSTs should cause weakening by days 4-5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 13.0N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 13.4N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.1N 103.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 14.9N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 15.6N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 17.0N 110.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 20.5N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 152034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 100.9W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 100.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, and this motion
should continue into early next week as the system moves roughly
parallel to but well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to
become a hurricane later this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 152033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
2100 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 100.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 100.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N 103.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.6N 106.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 110.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 151438
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Conventional satellite data and passive microwave imagery indicate
that the low pressure system NHC has been monitoring for the past
several days has become better defined this morning. The associated
convection has been persistent and is presently organized into a
couple of fragmented curved bands that wrap around the northern and
western portions of its circulation. The system now meets the
criteria of a tropical cyclone, and its initial intensity is set at
30 kt based on T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. The track
guidance is in good agreement that the system will maintain this
general heading and speed during the next couple of days while
moving roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, as it
is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United
States. The ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone
early next week, which should keep it on a west-northwestward
heading with a slight increase in forward speed on days 3-5. The
official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance
envelope and closely follows the TVCE consensus aid. The current
track and wind radii forecasts keep tropical-storm-force winds well
offshore of southwestern Mexico, so no coastal watches or warnings
are necessary at this time.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very
conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system
will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C
SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer
northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening,
and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential
for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50
percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h). The official NHC track
forecast is fairly aggressive and lies on the higher side of the
guidance, generally between the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS and the IVCN
consensus aid. The forecast calls for the cyclone to become a
hurricane on Sunday and continue strengthening through early next
week. By the end of the forecast period, cooler SSTs and increasing
deep-layer shear should induce a weakening trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 12.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 151437
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 100.8W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few
days while the system remains well offshore of southwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system
could become a hurricane by late this weekend or early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 151437
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062022
1500 UTC FRI JUL 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.8W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.8W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 100.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



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