Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HOWARD-22
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 24.0N 121.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 121.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.4N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.6N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.6N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.4N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 122.5W.
11AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z
IS 15 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 110235
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Howard Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

The last bit of deep convection near Howard's center faded around
the time of this morning's advisory, about 12 hours ago. Since the
center is now moving over waters colder than 22 degrees Celsius,
it's very unlikely that significant deep convection will reignite,
and Howard has therefore degenerated into a post-tropical low.
The low is still likely producing gale-force winds, which are
estimated to be as high as 40 kt based on a gradual spin down of
the circulation and the latest satellite estimates. Gales could
continue for another 6-12 hours as the system weakens over cold
water, and global models are in general agreement that the remnant
low will dissipate in 2-3 days.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt.
Howard's remnant circulation is expected to turn westward and slow
down a bit during the next 24 hours, continuing that motion until
dissipation. The previous forecast lies along the northern edge of
the 00z track guidance envelope, and because of that, the new (and
final) NHC forecast has been pushed southward, close to the GFS and
TVCE consensus solutions.

For additional information on the post-tropical low, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 24.1N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/1200Z 24.4N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z 24.6N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 24.6N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 24.4N 128.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 110234
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Howard Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...HOWARD NOW POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 122.3W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Howard
was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 122.3 West. Howard
is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the west with some decrease in forward speed is expected on
Thursday, with that motion continuing through late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the
post-tropical low is forecast to dissipate by Friday night or
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the
post-tropical low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 110234
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
0300 UTC THU AUG 11 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 122.3W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 122.3W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 121.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.4N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.6N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.6N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 122.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 23.8N 120.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 120.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.3N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.7N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.0N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.0N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 121.4W.
10AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND
112200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 102037
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

The infrared satellite appearance of Howard has continued to degrade
this afternoon with little to no deep convection remaining. The
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB supports
lowering the analyzed intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Howard
should continue to weaken this evening as it moves over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment. Numerical guidance suggests Howard will not reacquire
any sustained deep convection, however, periodic brief pulses of
convection are possible over the next 12 - 24 h. The official
forecast shows Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone within the
next 12 h, and it could happen as soon as this evening. The cyclone
should open into a remnant trough by 60 h.

Howard continues to move west-northwestward with an initial forward
speed of 10 kt. A slight turn to the west is expected over the next
two days before the cyclone dissipates. No substantial changes were
made to the NHC track forecast, which remains based on the model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 23.9N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 11/1800Z 24.7N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 25.0N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 25.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Onderlinde


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 102036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...HOWARD FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 121.3W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 121.3 West. Howard is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the west with a slight decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Howard is forecast to continue weakening and will
likely become a post-tropical cyclone tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Onderlinde


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 102035
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
2100 UTC WED AUG 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 121.3W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 121.3W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 120.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.7N 124.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.0N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 25.0N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 121.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/ONDERLINDE



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 101609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 35.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2022 0 12.2N 35.4W 1013 15
0000UTC 11.08.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 119.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2022 0 23.5N 119.8W 996 44
0000UTC 11.08.2022 12 24.1N 121.6W 1005 37
1200UTC 11.08.2022 24 24.5N 123.7W 1009 29
0000UTC 12.08.2022 36 24.8N 125.3W 1012 25
1200UTC 12.08.2022 48 25.1N 126.8W 1013 22
0000UTC 13.08.2022 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101609

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 101609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 35.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.08.2022 12.2N 35.4W WEAK
00UTC 11.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 119.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.08.2022 23.5N 119.8W MODERATE
00UTC 11.08.2022 24.1N 121.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2022 24.5N 123.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2022 24.8N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2022 25.1N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101609

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 101441
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Howard's deep convection continues to steadily decrease, both in
terms of extent and magnitude (as indicated by warming cloud top
temperatures). A blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and
the UW-CIMSS SATCON support lowering the analyzed intensity to 50 kt
for this advisory. Continued weakening appears inevitable as Howard
moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
surrounding environment. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF all indicate that
Howard will lose its remaining deep convection by the end of today,
and this is reflected in the official forecast which shows the
cyclone as post-tropical in 24 h.

Howard has turned west-northwestward, with an initial forward speed
of 9 kt. A gradual westward turn is expected over the next day or
so as the cyclone is increasingly steered by low-level easterly
flow. No changes of note were made to the NHC track forecast, which
remains based on the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 23.7N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 101440
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...HOWARD FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN A DAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 120.2W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 120.2 West. Howard is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the west with a slight decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Howard is forecast to weaken further today and
tonight, and will likely become a post-tropical remnant low within
the next 24 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 101440
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
1500 UTC WED AUG 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 120.2W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 120.2W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 120.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 23.3N 118.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 118.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.9N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.4N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.8N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.9N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.9N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 119.4W.
10AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 571
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z
AND 111000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100845
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Deep convection in the northern semicircle has continued to slowly
decrease in depth and coverage while Howard moves over cooler
waters. As a result, the objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates have reduced and the initial intensity estimate
has been lower to 55 kt. Steady weakening is expected to continue
as the cyclone approaches sea surface temperatures cooler than 24
degrees C and moves into an increasingly dry and stable environment.
These oceanic and atmospheric factors should cause Howard to
degenerate into a remnant low in about a day and a half. The
official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and now shows
Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt around a
subtropical ridge. Howard is expected to turn west-northwestward
later today followed by westward on Thursday when the weaker, more
shallow vortex is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous official prediction and
close to model consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 23.5N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 23.9N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 24.4N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 11/1800Z 24.8N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100843
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...HOWARD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 119.2W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 119.2 West. Howard is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected later today followed by a motion to the
west on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days. Howard is forecast to become a remnant low by
early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100843
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
0900 UTC WED AUG 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 119.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 119.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 120.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.4N 122.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.8N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 119.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD) WARNING NR 015
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 09E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 22.9N 118.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 118.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.6N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.2N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.7N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.9N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.9N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 118.6W.
10AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HOWARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100234
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Howard continues to weaken as it moves over cool 25 degree C waters.
Satellite images indicate that most of the deep convection is
confined to the north of the center with thunderstorm activity
dissipating on the south side due to dry air that is entraining into
that portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is nudged
downward to 60 kt, making Howard a tropical storm again, based on a
blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates.

Steady weakening is forecast to continue as Howard tracks over
progressively cooler water and into a very dry environment. These
factors should cause the storm to degenerate to a post-tropical
cyclone in about 36 hours and dissipate in a few days. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near
the IVCN and HCCA models.

Howard continues to move to the northwest at 9 kt. A gradual turn to
the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday followed by a turn to
the west on Thursday as the system weakens and becomes increasingly
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to
the north of the previous one, due to the more northward initial
position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 23.1N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 23.6N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 24.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

...HOWARD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 118.4W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 118.4 West. Howard is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected on Wednesday followed by a motion to the
west on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days. Howard is forecast to become a remnant low by
early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
0300 UTC WED AUG 10 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 118.4W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 118.4W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 118.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 119.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.7N 123.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.9N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 118.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 092035
TCDEP4

Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Deep convection associated with Howard has decreased in intensity
and become less organized today while the cyclone moves over cooler
waters. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have been lowered
from earlier today, and the objective Dvorak intensity estimate
from UW-CIMSS is below hurricane strength. Based on these values,
the advisory intensity is reduced to 65 kt.

Although the vertical wind shear is not forecast to increase, Howard
will continue to pass over cooler ocean waters during the next
couple of days. Moreover, model analyses and the presence of a
field of stratocumulus clouds just to the west of the cyclone
indicate that the system should soon be encountering a more stable
air mass. Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast, and
the official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the model
consensus. Howard should make the transition into a post tropical
cyclone in 48 hours, or less.

Howard remains on a west-northwestward track, and continues moving
at around 300/9 kt. The track forecast philosophy is essentially
unchanged from the previous few advisories. A mid-level ridge
extending westward from a high pressure system over the southwestern
United States should keep the system on a west-northwestward course
for the next day or two. Late in the forecast period, weak
post-tropical Howard should turn westward following the near-surface
winds. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the
previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 22.5N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 23.1N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 23.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 24.7N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 092035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Howard Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

...HOWARD WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 117.7W
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Howard was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 117.7 West. Howard is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days. Howard is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm
tonight, and become a remnant low by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 092034
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 119.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.8N 120.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.7N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 091436
TCDEP4

Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Howard has been maintaining a ragged-looking eye on geostationary
imagery, but an AMSR-2 microwave overpass showed a well-defined
ring of convection in the core. The current intensity is set at 75
kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB. The hurricane continues to exhibit a fairly well-defined
upper-level outflow pattern, indicative of low vertical wind shear.

The system is currently over marginally warm sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) and vertical wind shear is not predicted to
increase much over the next couple of days. However Howard will be
passing over increasingly cooler ocean waters and into a drier, more
stable air mass. These conditions should lead to steady weakening,
with the cyclone becoming post-tropical over 22 deg C SSTs in about
48 hours. The official intensity forecast is very close to the
latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or at about 300/9 kt.
A generally west-northwestward track is likely over the next few
days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a
mid-level ridge. A westward turn is expected late in the forecast
period when the the increasingly shallow system becomes steered by
the lower-tropospheric flow. The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous NHC prediction, and remains close to the
simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 22.0N 116.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 22.8N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.6N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 091436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Howard Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

...HOWARD EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 116.9W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Howard was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 116.9 West. Howard is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later today and continue
during the next couple of days. Howard is forecast to weaken to a
tropical storm tonight, and become post-tropical on Wednesday night
or early Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 091435
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 116.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 116.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 116.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 123.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 116.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090835
TCDEP4

Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Howard has been generally steady state in strength over the past
few hours and the hurricane has likely peaked in intensity.
Very recently, satellite imagery has shown a few breaks in the
convection in the northern semicircle. However, a blend of Dvorak
T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, along with objective SATCON
estimates, still support Howard as a 70-kt hurricane.

The cyclone is expected to begin weakening shortly. Though the
vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low for another day or
so, Howard has moved over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and is
pushing farther into a dry and stable environment. The official
forecast now predicts the storm to degenerate into a post-tropical
cyclone in a couple of days.

The initial motion estimate is 305/10 kt. A ridge to the northeast
of the hurricane should continue to steer Howard on a northwestward
trajectory. As Howard weakens, its motion will likely gain a more
westerly component when the shallower vortex is guided by the
low-level tradewinds. The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged
from the previous advisory and remains within the tightly-clustered
model guidance, closest to TVCE and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 21.6N 116.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 22.3N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.2N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 24.4N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 11/1800Z 24.8N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 12/0600Z 25.0N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090833
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Howard Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

...HURRICANE HOWARD HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 116.1W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Howard was located
near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 116.1 West. Howard is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later today and continue
during the next couple of days. Howard is forecast to weaken to a
tropical storm tonight, and become post-tropical on Wednesday night
or early Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 090833
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
0900 UTC TUE AUG 09 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 116.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 116.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.3N 117.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.2N 119.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 120.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.4N 122.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.8N 123.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.0N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 116.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 090237
TCDEP4

Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Howard's structure has evolved over the past several hours.
Although the overall amount of deep convection has decreased,
thunderstorm activity in the eyewall appears better organized and
more symmetric during the past few hours. Water vapor images show a
pronounced dry slot channeling into the system's east side, which is
likely the reason why the rainbands have become less convective.
Despite the structural change, the Dvorak classifications have
remained steady at 4.0/65 kt and 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. Based on that data, the initial intensity is held at
70 kt.

Howard is just about out of time to strengthen any further. The
hurricane is approaching the 26 degree C SST isotherm and dry air is
already entraining into the circulation. These factors should cause
a weakening trend to begin on Tuesday, and Howard will likely become
a remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is a
little lower than the previous one and near the IVCN and HCCA
consensus models.

Over the past 12 hours, Howard has been moving to the northwest
at 10 kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during
the next couple of days as the system moves on the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the south-central
and southwestern United States. A turn to the west within the
low-level flow is forecast in a few days when Howard is expected to
be a weak and shallow system. The NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous one and near the model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 21.2N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 22.0N 116.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 22.9N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 23.6N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 24.6N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 090236
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Howard Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 08 2022

...HOWARD HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 115.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Howard was located
near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 115.2 West. Howard is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected overnight, but
weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 082042
TCDEP4

Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Howard has continued to become better organized today, with an eye
now making an appearance on infrared and visible satellite imagery.
A 1433 UTC SSMIS pass indicated that deeper convective banding
surrounded the center more so than it did in the earlier AMSR-2
microwave pass. The latest subjective intensity estimates are 65 and
77 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The above data support
raising the current intensity to 70 kt. A slight adjustment to the
wind radii was performed based on recent ASCAT passes.

Howard is still moving northwestward at 315/11 kt. The track
guidance remains in good agreement that the northwestward motion
will continue into Tuesday, as Howard is steered by a mid- to
upper-level ridge to its northeast. After that time, the cyclone
should gradually turn west-northwestward as the cyclone becomes
more vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the
low-level trade wind flow. Only a slight adjustment to the left was
made to the track forecast for this advisory. The NHC track lies
between the middle of the guidance envelope and the previous
official forecast.

Howard likely has about another 12 hours to strengthen before it
crosses the 26 C sea surface temperature (SST) isotherm. After that
time, progressively cooler SSTs and drier mid-level air should cause
weakening. By 60 h, Howard is forecast to lose its convection and
become post-tropical. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased
during the first day to better match current intensity trends and
the latest IVCN and HCCA intensity guidance, but then falls in line
with the previous NHC forecast from 36 h onward. It should be noted
that the GFS-SHIPS rapid intensification guidance indicates a 32
percent chance of a 20 kt increase during the next 12 h, so it is
possible that the 12 h intensity forecast could be somewhat
conservative.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 20.6N 114.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 21.5N 115.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 22.6N 117.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 23.4N 119.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 24.5N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/1800Z 24.7N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 24.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 082040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Howard Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022

...HOWARD RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 114.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Howard was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 114.4 West. Howard is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight followed by a turn to the
west-northwest tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional intensification is possible through tonight.
Weakening is anticipated to begin tomorrow.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 082039
TCMEP4

HURRICANE HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
2100 UTC MON AUG 08 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 114.4W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 114.4W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 113.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 115.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 119.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 120.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.5N 122.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.7N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.9N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 114.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PAPIN/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 081438
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Compared to yesterday at this time, Howard has become a much better
organized tropical cyclone. After the previous advisory, we received
an AMSR-2 microwave pass valid at 0844 UTC, which showed a nearly
closed cyan ring at 36 GHz, suggesting a low-level eye feature had
developed. More recently, 1-minute GOES-18 interleave satellite
imagery is occasionally depicting a banding-type eye signature with
colder cloud tops beginning to wrap around this feature. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T3.5/55 kt at
1200 UTC, which supports raising the intensity to 55 kt this
advisory.

Howard is still moving northwestward at 315/11 kt. The track
guidance remains is good agreement that this northwestward motion
will continue for the next 24 hours as Howard remains steered by a
mid-level ridge to its northeast. Starting tomorrow, the storm
should gradually turn west-northwestward as the cyclone becomes more
vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level
trade wind flow. The guidance has shifted ever so slightly north of
the previous track forecast, and the latest NHC track was nudged in
that direction, remaining close to the consensus aids TVCE
and HCCA.

Howard has another 12-18 hours over greater than 26 C sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) in a low shear environment. Given the
improvement in the inner core structure and higher initial
intensity, the latest NHC forecast was raised quite a bit from the
previous advisory and now shows Howard becoming a hurricane later
today. After 24 hours, the storm will be moving over rapidly cooling
SSTs as the atmospheric environment becomes more stable with shear
also increasing. Thus, steady weakening is expected and the latest
intensity forecast still makes Howard post-tropical in 60 hours.
This forecast is higher than the intensity guidance over the first
day, but falls back in line with the consensus aids after that time
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 20.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 24.3N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 24.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 24.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 081435
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022

...HOWARD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 113.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 113.4 West. Howard is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the west-northwest
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and
Howard is now forecast to become a hurricane later today. Weakening
is anticipated to begin tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 081434
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
1500 UTC MON AUG 08 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.4W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.4W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.3N 120.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 121.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.8N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 080837
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022

Howard appears to be continuing its strengthening trend. A
scatterometer pass at 0507 UTC revealed surface wind speeds peaking
around 40 kts in the northern semicircle of the circulation. The
satellite data also revealed the tropical storm to be quite a bit
smaller than originally estimated. Subjective Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB both support an intensity of 45 kt. Given the
potential for the scatterometer to under sample winds in a smaller
storm, the initial intensity has been increased to matched the
Dvorak estimates.

The window for additional potential strengthening is growing
shorter. SHIPS model guidance indicates Howard should move over
the 26 degree Celsius sea surface isotherm in about 24 hours. The
global models forecast the vertical wind shear to increase and the
surrounding environmental relative humidities to decrease. The
combination of these oceanic and atmospheric conditions should
induce a weakening trend. The official forecast predicts
Howard to plateau in intensity at 50 kt and become post-tropical
by 60 hours.

The reasoning behind the track forecast is unchanged. The tropical
storm is moving northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest periphery
of a mid-level ridge. When Howard weakens, the cyclone is expected
to turn westward in the low-level tradewind flow. The updated
track forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and
remains close to the model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 19.2N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 21.7N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 22.8N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 23.6N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 24.3N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/0600Z 24.6N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 24.6N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 24.0N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 080836
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022

...HOWARD STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 112.6W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 112.6 West. Howard is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight additional strengthening is forecast
during the next day, followed by weakening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 080835
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
0900 UTC MON AUG 08 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 112.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 112.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 115.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.8N 117.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.6N 119.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.3N 120.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.6N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 24.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 112.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.08.2022

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 111.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2022 0 17.7N 111.3W 1003 33
1200UTC 08.08.2022 12 19.4N 113.4W 1002 37
0000UTC 09.08.2022 24 20.6N 115.2W 1002 36
1200UTC 09.08.2022 36 22.2N 117.1W 1004 32
0000UTC 10.08.2022 48 23.3N 119.2W 1006 25
1200UTC 10.08.2022 60 24.3N 121.0W 1010 23
0000UTC 11.08.2022 72 25.0N 122.8W 1012 21
1200UTC 11.08.2022 84 25.5N 124.6W 1015 19
0000UTC 12.08.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 080410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.08.2022

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 111.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2022 17.7N 111.3W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2022 19.4N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2022 20.6N 115.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2022 22.2N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2022 23.3N 119.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2022 24.3N 121.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2022 25.0N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2022 25.5N 124.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080410

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 080233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
0300 UTC MON AUG 08 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.7W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.7W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.6N 112.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 118.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 119.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 121.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 072036
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Since this morning, convection has been attempting to build over the
northern semicircle of the cyclone. While the low-level circulation
remains partially exposed to the south, the coldest cloud tops below
-70 C have rotated cyclonically in the up-shear direction, which
could foreshadow an attempt of the mid-level center aligning with
the low-level center in the future. Subjective and objective Dvorak
intensity estimates this afternoon were a consensus T2.5/35 kt.
Consequently, Tropical Depression Nine-E has been upgraded to
Tropical Storm Howard with 35 kt winds this advisory.

The storm has continued a general motion to the northwest, estimated
at 315/10 kt. The track philosophy has not changed much today, as
Howard should continue to move northwestward into a relative
weakness in the mid-level ridging. The track guidance this cycle has
taken a noticeable shift to the northwest over the first 24-48 hours
of the forecast, and the latest NHC track has also been shifted in
that direction. Thereafter, Howard is likely to become vertically
shallow, and increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The track
forecast after 48 hours shows a bend westward in response to
this transition, and follows closely with the consensus aids HCCA
and TVCE.

The short-term intensity forecast is interesting. While Howard is
clearly still feeling some effects of southwesterly vertical wind
shear, the deepest convection has pivoted into the northern side of
the storm. This could be the first signs that the upper-level trough
to the west of Howard is starting to weaken and shift away from the
storm. In addition, the raw model output grids of the GFS, ECMWF,
and HWRF all suggest some sort of center reformation or relocation
under the convection between 12-36 hours. This process may help to
align the low and mid-level centers of the storm. This improved
structure would also likely result in more intensification than
previously shown, and the latest intensity forecast now takes Howard
up to 50 kt in 36 hours. After that, the storm will be crossing a
sharp sea surface temperature gradient and moving into a more stable
environment, ultimately leading to steady weakening and its demise
as a tropical cyclone by 96 hours. The latest NHC intensity forecast
has a higher peak than before, but is still a tad under the latest
HCCA guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 17.6N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.0N 111.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 20.6N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 21.8N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 22.9N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 23.8N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 24.5N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.0N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 24.5N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 072034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HOWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 110.7W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 110.7 West. Howard is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, followed by weakening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 072034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
2100 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.7W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.7W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 111.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.6N 113.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.8N 115.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.9N 116.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.8N 118.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 120.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.0N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 110.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 071610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 109.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2022 0 16.3N 109.5W 1005 29
0000UTC 08.08.2022 12 17.6N 111.5W 1005 31
1200UTC 08.08.2022 24 19.2N 113.6W 1004 34
0000UTC 09.08.2022 36 20.4N 115.3W 1004 32
1200UTC 09.08.2022 48 22.2N 117.0W 1006 28
0000UTC 10.08.2022 60 23.3N 119.3W 1008 22
1200UTC 10.08.2022 72 24.2N 121.1W 1012 19
0000UTC 11.08.2022 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071609

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 071610

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 109.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2022 16.3N 109.5W WEAK
00UTC 08.08.2022 17.6N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2022 19.2N 113.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2022 20.4N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2022 22.2N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2022 23.3N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2022 24.2N 121.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071609

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 071441
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

The depression remains disheveled this morning, with the center of
the system still partially exposed to the southwest of the deepest
convective activity. This structure is primarily due to dry air
being imported to the center by moderate southwesterly vertical wind
shear (VWS). Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5/35 kt
from TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, while the latest objective estimate
from UW-CIMSS ADT was T2.5/35 kt. Given the lackluster satellite
presentation, the initial intensity was held at 30 kt for this
advisory.

The depression is now moving northwest as a slightly slower pace,
estimated at 315/10 kt. A mid-level ridge located northeast of the
system is expected to steer it generally northwestward over the next
few days. One interesting note in the immediate future is there is a
weakness in this ridge to the north, partially related to an
upper-level trough currently shearing the depression. If the system
is able to become better aligned vertically, this could lead to a
rightward shift in the short-term track. The NHC track forecast
accounts for this possibility by being located on the right side of
the track guidance envelope over the next 12-36 hours. This track is
just a bit northeast of the previous one, though it blends back
towards the consensus aids by the end of the forecast, when the
system will likely be steered by the low-level trade wind flow.

A weak upper-level trough located northwest of the depression is the
primary feature maintaining southwesterly VWS over the system. Over
the next day or so, both the GFS and ECMWF suggest this feature
should decay and shift southwest, perhaps related to convection
building up-shear around the depression while helping to align its
low and mid-level centers. Should this process occur,
intensification still appears possible. One alternate solution is
that convective outflow is not able to displace the upper-level low
and some amount of shear is maintained over the system. For now, the
latest NHC intensity forecast will maintain a peak of 45 kt in 36-48
hours, right around the time the system will be crossing the 26 C
sea surface temperature (SST) isotherm. After that time, weakening
is expected over even cooler SSTs and a more stable environment. The
system is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low at
the end of the forecast period. This intensity forecast is on the
high side of the guidance envelope overall, but is close to the
latest HCCA consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.8N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.4N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 20.7N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 21.7N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 22.5N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 23.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 24.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 071437
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

...DEPRESSION STRUGGLING BUT STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 109.9W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 109.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 071436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
1500 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.9W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.9W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.4N 112.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 115.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.5N 117.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.1N 119.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.0N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 070834
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and dry air appear
to be limiting the current potential for intensification of the
tropical depression. The low-level center is once again exposed to
the west of a burst of deep convection. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB both suggest the system is still at 30
kt and the initial intensity remains unchanged.

The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has yet to occur.
However, global models are insistent the shear should relax soon.
If this does happen, the tropical depression could gradually
strengthen during a brief window of conducive atmospheric and
oceanic environmental conditions over the next 48 hours. The
cyclone is then expected to weaken after that time when it
encounters sea surface temperatures of 26 degree C and a more stable
and drier airmass. The peak intensity of the official forecast has
been decreased slightly and it now shows the depression becoming a
remnant low by day 5.

The system is moving west-northwest at 300/13 kt. A mid-level ridge
to the northeast is expected to steer the depression northwestward
at a slightly decreased forward speed for the next few days. The
depression is then expected to turn westward as it weakens and
follows the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous official forecast and the model consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.3N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.3N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 21.1N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 22.0N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 23.7N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 070833
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 109.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 109.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and this motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 070832
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
0900 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.3N 110.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.7N 112.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.1N 115.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 117.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.7N 121.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 070410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 107.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.08.2022 0 14.3N 107.8W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.08.2022 12 15.7N 109.9W 1005 29
0000UTC 08.08.2022 24 16.7N 111.8W 1004 29
1200UTC 08.08.2022 36 18.3N 113.7W 1004 34
0000UTC 09.08.2022 48 19.2N 115.6W 1004 33
1200UTC 09.08.2022 60 20.5N 117.7W 1006 31
0000UTC 10.08.2022 72 21.6N 119.5W 1008 24
1200UTC 10.08.2022 84 22.1N 121.6W 1011 23
0000UTC 11.08.2022 96 22.2N 123.2W 1012 23
1200UTC 11.08.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 070409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 107.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.08.2022 14.3N 107.8W WEAK
12UTC 07.08.2022 15.7N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2022 16.7N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2022 18.3N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2022 19.2N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2022 20.5N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2022 21.6N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2022 22.1N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2022 22.2N 123.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070409

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 070239
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 06 2022

Bursts of deep convection have been developing near, and just east
of the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. The
low-level circulation continues to try to outrun these bursts due to
ongoing moderate westerly vertical wind shear. Overall, the system
does not look much better organized than it did this afternoon, and
the latest Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the system
remains a 30 kt tropical depression.

The westerly shear is forecast to decrease overnight and remain weak
for the remainder of the cyclone's existence. The path of
the depression should keep it over warm waters and within a moist
thermodynamic environment for the next couple of days. Therefore
strengthening is expected during that time. By 72 h, the cyclone is
expected to cross the 26 degrees C isotherm and encounter a much
drier and more stable airmass. These factors should cause the
system to weaken and become devoid of deep convection by midweek.
Model guidance continues to trend lower with their respective peak
intensities for this system. Thus, the NHC forecast peak intensity
has been nudged downward as well, but remains slightly higher than
the various intensity consensus solutions.

The depression continues its trek to the northwest, or 305/12 kt to
the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This ridge should keep the
cyclone on this general heading for the next few days. As the
cyclone weakens and loses its convection midweek, a turn to the
west-northwest in the large scale low-level flow is anticipated. The
latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one
and remains near the multi-model track consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.6N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.3N 112.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.4N 114.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 21.3N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 22.2N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 23.2N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 23.7N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 070238
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 06 2022

...SYSTEM REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 107.9W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 107.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 070237
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
0300 UTC SUN AUG 07 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 107.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.6N 109.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.4N 114.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.3N 116.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.2N 117.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.2N 120.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.7N 123.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 062034
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 06 2022

Satellite imagery indicates the depression continues to produce a
large area of convection in the eastern portion of its circulation.
Recently, some deep convective bursts have occurred closer to its
center, which has been partially exposed for much of today due to
the influence of some westerly deep-layer shear. A blend of the
UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate (31 kt) and the subjective estimates
from TAFB (T2.0/30 kt) and SAB (T1.5/25 kt) support maintaining a
30-kt intensity for this advisory.

The cyclone has roughly a 48-60 h window to strengthen before it
encounters more unfavorable environmental conditions early next
week. The deep-layer shear is forecast to diminish below 10 kt
during the next day or so, and the system will move over 28-29 deg C
SSTs and within a fairly moist mid-level environment during that
time. Therefore, at least some gradual strengthening is anticipated,
and the official NHC forecast shows the depression becoming a
tropical storm later tonight and peaking as a stronger tropical
storm in about 60 h. This portion of the forecast falls in between
the HCCA and IVCN aids. Then, drier air and cooler SSTs along its
forecast track should induce a weakening trend through the middle of
next week, and model simulated satellite imagery suggests the system
could be on the verge of becoming post-tropical by day 5.

The depression is still moving northwestward at 305/11 kt. This
general motion should continue for the next few days as the cyclone
is steered by a distant low- to mid-level ridge. As the system
weakens on days 4-5, it should turn west-northwestward as it becomes
increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The official NHC track
forecast has been nudged slightly right of the previous track, in
line with the trends noted in the latest multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 15.0N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.9N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 17.1N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.4N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 20.8N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 21.7N 116.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 23.0N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 24.0N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 062034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 06 2022

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 106.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 106.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days
or so, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
later tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 062034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
2100 UTC SAT AUG 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 106.8W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 106.8W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.1N 110.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.4N 111.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.8N 115.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 116.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 061441
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast
of southwestern Mexico has continued to show increased signs of
organization this morning. A 0857 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass suggests
its circulation has become better defined, and satellite imagery
shows evidence of some curved convective banding mainly to the east
of its estimated low-level position. Additionally, the subjective
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.0 and T1.5,
respectively. Since the system now meets the criteria of a tropical
cyclone, advisories are being initiated on this system as a 30-kt
tropical depression.

The center is located near the western edge of the convective mass,
likely due to the 10-15 kt of westerly shear that the cyclone is
experiencing this morning. Although weak to moderate shear may
continue to affect the system during the next couple of days, the
majority of the guidance suggests that warm SSTs and sufficient
mid-level moisture should allow for at least gradual strengthening
through early next week. This trend is reflected in the NHC
forecast, which calls for the depression to become a tropical storm
by tonight and continue intensifying to near hurricane strength by
Tuesday. Then, the system is forecast to move into a drier, more
stable environment over decreasing SSTs, which should induce a
weakening trend through the middle of next week.

The estimated initial motion of the depression is northwestward, or
305/11 kt. A distant low- to mid-level ridge over the southern U.S.
should steer the cyclone northwestward to west-northwestward over
the next few days, keeping it well offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Although there is reasonably good agreement in
the early part of the forecast period, there is above-average spread
in the track guidance on days 3-5. Stronger model solutions like the
GFS and HWRF lie on the northern end of the guidance envelope, while
the weaker ECMWF and UKMET solutions are much further south. The
official NHC forecast generally follows the multi-model consensus
aids, but lies a bit north of HCCA and TVCE at later forecast times.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.3N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 15.1N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 16.2N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 19.0N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 20.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 21.1N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


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Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 061439
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 105.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 105.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
northwestward or west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next few days, keeping the
system well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 061438
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092022
1500 UTC SAT AUG 06 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.7W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.7W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.1N 107.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 109.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 112.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 114.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.1N 115.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



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