Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MEARI-22
in Japan, Russian Federation

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 44N 150E
MOVE NE 30KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 44N 150E
MOVE NE 30KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 41.8N 148.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 142100UTC 47.5N 151.8E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 150900UTC 51.1N 153.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 41.8N 148.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 51.1N 153.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 41.2N 147.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 141800UTC 46.2N 151.4E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 150600UTC 50.7N 152.6E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 41.2N 147.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 50.7N 152.6E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2208 MEARI (2208) 996 HPA
AT 41.2N 147.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 28 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 46.2N 151.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 50.7N 152.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 40.3N 146.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 141500UTC 44.3N 150.6E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 150300UTC 49.4N 152.7E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 40.3N 146.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 49.4N 152.7E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 39.2N 144.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 141200UTC 42.7N 149.5E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 150000UTC 48.3N 152.5E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 39.2N 144.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 48.3N 152.5E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2208 MEARI (2208) 998 HPA
AT 39.2N 144.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 24 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 42.7N 149.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 48.3N 152.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 38.1N 143.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 140900UTC 41.6N 148.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 142100UTC 46.7N 152.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 38.1N 143.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 46.7N 152.8E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MEARI IS LOCATED AT 37.4N, 142.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 37.4N 142.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 140600UTC 40.5N 147.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 141800UTC 45.4N 151.7E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 37.4N 142.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 45.4N 151.7E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2208 MEARI (2208) 998 HPA
AT 37.4N 142.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 24 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 40.5N 147.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 45.4N 151.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 36.3N 141.5E GOOD
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 140300UTC 39.7N 145.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 141500UTC 44.1N 150.4E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 36.3N 141.5E GOOD
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 44.1N 150.4E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MEARI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 35.8N, 140.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 35.8N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 140000UTC 39.1N 144.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 141200UTC 42.6N 149.3E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 35.8N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 42.6N 149.3E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2208 MEARI (2208) 998 HPA
AT 35.8N 140.3E EASTERN JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 39.1N 144.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 42.6N 149.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 35.2N 139.1E GOOD
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 132100UTC 38.3N 143.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 140900UTC 41.6N 148.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150600UTC 50.0N 152.7E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 35.2N 139.1E GOOD
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 41.6N 148.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150600UTC 50.0N 152.7E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MEARI IS LOCATED AT 34.7N, 138.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP,
STRONG VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 34.7N 138.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131800UTC 37.6N 141.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 140600UTC 40.7N 146.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150600UTC 50.0N 152.7E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 34.7N 138.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 40.7N 146.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150600UTC 50.0N 152.7E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2208 MEARI (2208) 998 HPA
AT 34.7N 138.2E EASTERN JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 37.6N 141.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 40.7N 146.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 50.0N 152.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 34.3N 137.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131500UTC 36.9N 141.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 140300UTC 39.8N 145.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150000UTC 47.4N 153.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 34.3N 137.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 39.8N 145.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150000UTC 47.4N 153.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MEARI IS LOCATED AT 33.8N, 137.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 33.8N 137.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131200UTC 36.2N 140.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 140000UTC 39.1N 144.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150000UTC 47.4N 153.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 33.8N 137.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 39.1N 144.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150000UTC 47.4N 153.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2208 MEARI (2208) 1000 HPA
AT 33.8N 137.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 36.2N 140.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 39.1N 144.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 47.4N 153.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 33.2N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130900UTC 35.5N 139.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 132100UTC 38.2N 143.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 141800UTC 44.2N 151.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 33.2N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 38.2N 143.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 141800UTC 44.2N 151.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MEARI IS LOCATED AT 32.9N, 136.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 32.9N 136.7E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130600UTC 34.9N 138.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 131800UTC 37.5N 142.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141800UTC 44.2N 151.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 32.9N 136.7E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 37.5N 142.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141800UTC 44.2N 151.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2208 MEARI (2208) 1000 HPA
AT 32.9N 136.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 34.9N 138.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 37.5N 142.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 44.2N 151.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 32.5N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 34.6N 137.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 131500UTC 37.1N 141.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 141200UTC 41.5N 149.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 32.5N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 37.1N 141.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 141200UTC 41.5N 149.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MEARI IS LOCATED AT 31.9N, 136.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT24. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 31.9N 136.7E FAIR
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 34.1N 137.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 131200UTC 36.3N 140.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141200UTC 41.5N 149.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 31.9N 136.7E FAIR
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 36.3N 140.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141200UTC 41.5N 149.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2208 MEARI (2208) 1002 HPA
AT 31.9N 136.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 34.1N 137.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 36.3N 140.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 41.5N 149.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 31.1N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 33.6N 137.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130900UTC 35.8N 139.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 140600UTC 40.1N 146.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 150600UTC 48.2N 153.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 31.1N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 35.8N 139.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 140600UTC 40.1N 146.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 150600UTC 48.2N 153.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2208 MEARI (2208)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MEARI IS LOCATED AT 30.8N, 136.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, INCREASED VWS, DRY AIR
AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2208 MEARI (2208) 1002 HPA
AT 30.8N 136.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 33.0N 136.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 35.3N 138.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 40.1N 146.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 48.2N 153.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>