Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IVETTE-22
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 170409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 17.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 115.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.08.2022 0 17.4N 115.4W 1005 17
1200UTC 17.08.2022 12 17.8N 116.4W 1007 17
0000UTC 18.08.2022 24 18.3N 117.7W 1007 18
1200UTC 18.08.2022 36 18.6N 119.1W 1008 19
0000UTC 19.08.2022 48 18.2N 120.3W 1009 21
1200UTC 19.08.2022 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170409

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 170409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.08.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 115.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.08.2022 17.4N 115.4W WEAK
12UTC 17.08.2022 17.8N 116.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2022 18.3N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2022 18.6N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2022 18.2N 120.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170409

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 162044
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Although there has been sporadic and disorganized convection mainly
to the southwest of the center of Ivette today, this system lacks
sufficient organized, deep convection to qualify as a tropical
cyclone. Therefore, this is the last NHC advisory. The initial
intensity is lowered to 25 kt based on the satellite intensity
estimate from TAFB. Some additional sporadic bursts of convection
may occur over the next day or two while the remnant low is over
marginally warm waters. However, persistent strong easterly
vertical wind shear associated with a large upper-level anticyclone
to the north of the system should prevent any significant convective
reorganization for the next several days.

Ivette has continued its motion westward at 5 kt. Over the next day
or so, the system should turn west-northwestward in the low-level
flow. A building low-level ridge to the northwest of Ivette should
eventually steer the remnants westward and then west-southwestward
until it opens up into a trough in a few days.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 17/0600Z 17.5N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 18.1N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 162042
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...IVETTE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 115.1W
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette
was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 115.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h)
and a slow west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected over the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 162039
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022
2100 UTC TUE AUG 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.1W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.1W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.1N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 115.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 161437
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Some limited thunderstorm activity has recently developed around
the periphery of Ivette's circulation, but so far it has lacked
organization as strong easterly shear continues to affect the
cyclone. If the convection does not gain organization soon, Ivette
will likely become a remnant low as early as this afternoon. The
initial intensity has been held at a possibly generous 30 kt, which
is based on a recent Dvorak current intensity number of T2.0 from
TAFB.

Strong easterly shear of about 25 kt and a relatively dry atmosphere
are expected to lead to weakening over the next couple of days.
Assuming the current thunderstorm activity does not become
organized, Ivette should become post-tropical later today. The
remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough in 3 to 4 days.

Ivette remains within an area of weak steering flow and it has
only drifted west-southwestward over the past several hours. The
global model guidance suggests that the cyclone should begin to
move westward or west-northwestward within the next day or so as
the low-level flow becomes better defined to the north of the
system. The new NHC track forecast is along the southern side of
the guidance envelope, and is in best agreement with the HFIP
corrected consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.1N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 161436
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ivette Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...IVETTE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 114.6W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivette
was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 114.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Ivette is likely to become a
remnant low later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 161436
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022
1500 UTC TUE AUG 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.6W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.6W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.8N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 160838
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022

A burst of deep convection that developed in the western part of
Ivette's circulation last evening has since been sheared away,
leaving a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. Despite the loss of
convection, a blend of TAFB's Dvorak CI number (2.0) with UW-CIMSS
ADT and SATCON estimates supports maintaining 30 kt for this
advisory. It's possible that some convection could redevelop since
Ivette remains over warm waters of about 28 degrees Celsius.
However, strong deep-layer easterly shear of about 25 kt and a
relatively dry atmosphere are likely to cause any new convection to
be short lived and on the less-than-organized side of the spectrum.
Therefore, barring any surprises, Ivette is expected to degenerate
into a remnant low later today, and gradually spin down during the
next few days. Global models are in generally good agreement that
the remnant low should open up into a trough in about 4 days.

With the development and dissipation of recent convection, Ivette's
movement has been erratic, and it's actually been nearly stationary
for the past few hours. Since yesterday afternoon, however, the
center has generally moved west-southwestward (245 degrees) at about
2 kt. The steering flow around the depression is weak at the
moment, and there is greater-than-normal spread in the track
guidance. In general, though, the remnant low is expected to move
slowly westward to west-northwestward at 5 kt or less until
dissipation. The new NHC track has been shifted southward from the
previous forecast, mainly to account for Ivette's recent motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 17.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/0600Z 17.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 17.9N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 18.2N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 18.0N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 160838
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ivette Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...BARRING ANY NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, IVETTE SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 114.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivette
was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 114.3 West. Ivette
has been nearly stationary for the past few hours, but since
yesterday afternoon it has generally moved toward the west-southwest
near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion
is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and if new thunderstorm activity
does not develop, Ivette is likely to become a remnant low later
today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 160837
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022
0900 UTC TUE AUG 16 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.6N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.2N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 114.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 160237
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ivette Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022

...IVETTE WEAKENS BACK INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...STILL FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 114.4W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivette
was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 114.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 151440
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022

The depression is maintaining enough deep convection to keep its
tropical cyclone status for now, however the convection has had
little, if any, organization for the past 12-18 hours. The initial
intensity is held at 25 kt and is based on earlier scatterometer
data and the most recent SAB Dvorak classification. Easterly shear
of about 20 kt is forecast to continue to plague the system over the
next few days, and gradual weakening is anticipated during that
time. The system is expected to remain over warm water so continued
bursts of convection are likely, but if the convection does not gain
additional organization the system is likely to become a remnant low
at just about anytime within the next 24 hours.

The depression has been drifting southwestward over the past day or
so. A very slow westward or west-southwestward motion is expected
over the next 12 to 24 hours as the system remains within an area
of weak steering flow. A slightly faster westward to west-
northwestward motion should occur around midweek when the system
is a remnant low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 17.8N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.7N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 17.6N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 17.6N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0000Z 17.9N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 150244
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022

While there are several convective bursts forming in a scattered
fashion around the low-level circulation of the depression this
evening, this activity lacks much organization. 0000 UTC Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB were CI 1.5/2.5 respectively, and
an average of these estimates still supports maintaining the
intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.

A prominent upper-level anticyclone to the north of Tropical
Depression Ten-E is expected to further increase the easterly
vertical wind shear over the system, with the ECMWF-SHIPS showing
the magnitude approaching 30 kt in the next 24 hours. This shear
should result in the depression ingesting dry and more stable air
from outside of its core, further limiting convective activity.
Thus, weakening is anticipated, and simulated satellite imagery from
the global models continues to suggest the system will no longer be
able to produce organized convection by tomorrow night, marking its
transition to a post-tropical remnant low. This remnant low will
likely survive several more days before it dissipates.

The depression has been drifting to the west-southwest, with the
latest motion estimated at 245/3 kt. Low-level steering is expected
to maintain a slow west-southwestward heading over the next day or
so with a gradual bend westward forecast thereafter. The latest NHC
track was again shifted a bit south of the previous one given a
southward shift in the track guidance envelope, but still lies near
the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids during the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.8N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.5N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 17.4N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 17.4N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 17.4N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 140235
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022

The depression has maintained a sheared appearance in satellite
imagery this evening. The low-level center is exposed to the east of
its deep convective overcast, which has a sharp eastern edge as
moderate east-northeasterly shear continues to impinge on its
circulation. The distance between the center and the cold overcast
has slightly increased from earlier today, and the initial intensity
is held at 30 kt for this advisory. This is consistent with a blend
of the various objective and subjective satellite estimates, which
range from 25 to 35 kt.

Ten-E is expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone, as the
moderate deep-layer shear currently plaguing the system is forecast
to strengthen during the next couple of days. So although SSTs
remain above 26 deg C along its forecast track, the shear will
continue to disrupt the system's vertical organization and import
drier mid-level air from the east into its circulation. The official
NHC forecast shows little change in strength during the next 12-24
h, followed by gradual weakening as the system is forecast to lose
deep organized convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 36 h.
The remnant low could meander for a day or so before it succumbs to
increased shear and drier air and eventually opens into a trough.

The depression is still moving west-northwestward (285/7 kt) around
a low- to mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The vertically
shallow system should gradually turn westward to west-southwestward
over the next couple of days as it becomes steered by the low-level
flow. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
one and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 18.2N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 18.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 18.5N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 18.2N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1200Z 17.9N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 140234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022

...SHEARED DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 112.2W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 112.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).
A gradual turn to the west and west-southwest with a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, followed by
gradual weakening early next week. The depression is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 140233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022
0300 UTC SUN AUG 14 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.4N 113.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 114.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.2N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 132040
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Recent scatterometer data indicated that the circulation associated
with the low pressure area that NHC has been tracking over the
previous few days has become better defined within the past 24
hours. Although convection is limited to the western portion of
the circulation, the system has had sufficient organized and
persistent thunderstorm activity to be classified as a tropical
depression. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt and is based on
a blend of the satellite-derived surface wind speeds and the Dvorak
classifications from SAB and TAFB.

The depression is not expected to strengthen and be a rather
short-lived tropical cyclone. The system is currently within an
area of modest northeasterly shear and the upper-level winds are
forecast to increase within the next 24 hours. Although the
forecast does not explicitly call for the system to become a
tropical storm, it could strengthen slightly within the next 12-24
hours. After that time frame, the vertical wind shear is predicted
to increase and limit any further intensification. The official
forecast shows the depression becoming a remnant low by 48 hours.

The system is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt around the
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico.
The ridge is forecast to build westward over the next day or two,
which should cause the depression to turn westward. As the vortex
weakens and becomes more shallow, it should slow in forward speed
and drift west-southwestward. The NHC track forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope, close to the model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.3N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 18.6N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.2N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 132040
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 111.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A gradual turn to the west and west-southwest, and a
decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday before
weakening into a remnant low early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 132039
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102022
2100 UTC SAT AUG 13 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 111.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.6N 113.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.2N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN



>