Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TOKAGE-22
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 45N 158E
MOVE NE 30KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 45N 158E
MOVE NE 30KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 43.4N 156.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 260300UTC 47.6N 162.9E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 261500UTC 50.7N 172.3E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 43.4N 156.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 261500UTC 50.7N 172.3E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 251500
WARNING 251500.
WARNING VALID 261500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 992 HPA
AT 43.4N 156.3E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 47.6N 162.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 50.7N 172.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 42.9N, 155.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220825124926
2022082512 11W TOKAGE 014 02 040 26 SATL 040
T000 424N 1550E 045 R034 105 NE QD 160 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 462N 1607E 040 R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 496N 1698E 035 R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 42.4N 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 42.4N 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 46.2N 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 49.6N 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 43.3N 156.4E.
25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 632
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 260N1514E 45
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082418 372N1502E 70
1122082418 372N1502E 70
1122082418 372N1502E 70
1122082500 386N1511E 65
1122082500 386N1511E 65
1122082500 386N1511E 65
1122082506 404N1528E 55
1122082506 404N1528E 55
1122082512 424N1550E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 42.4N 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 42.4N 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 46.2N 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 49.6N 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 43.3N 156.4E.
25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 632
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING SYSTEM, WITH A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), RAPIDLY TRANSITING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 251106Z ASCAT BULLSEYE INDICATED A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD, WITH WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN
HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LESS THAN 25 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. JTWC MANUAL AND AUTOMATED
PHASE CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY A HYBRID
TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL
CYCLONE, SUCH AS A WARM CORE, AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, SUCH AS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT AND COLD SSTS LESS THAN 20C. THE SYSTEM IS
RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING HOWEVER TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
STARTS TO COME IN-PHASE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, EMBEDS UNDER A
200MB JET STREAK AND DEVELOPS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS A GALE-FORCE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 28 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING OF THIS
SYSTEM.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 42.9N 155.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 30KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260000UTC 46.6N 160.6E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 261200UTC 50.1N 169.7E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 42.9N 155.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 30KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 50.1N 169.7E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 251200
WARNING 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 992 HPA
AT 42.9N 155.1E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 46.6N 160.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 50.1N 169.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 41.6N 153.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 150NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 252100UTC 45.8N 159.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 260900UTC 49.5N 167.3E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 250900
WARNING 250900.
WARNING VALID 260900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 990 HPA
AT 41.6N 153.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 45.8N 159.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 49.5N 167.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 41.6N 153.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 150NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 49.5N 167.3E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220825074848
2022082506 11W TOKAGE 013 02 035 22 SATL 040
T000 404N 1528E 055 R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 440N 1574E 045 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 480N 1652E 035 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 11W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 40.4N 152.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 40.4N 152.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 44.0N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 48.0N 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 41.3N 153.9E.
25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530
NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 260N1514E 45
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082418 372N1502E 70
1122082418 372N1502E 70
1122082418 372N1502E 70
1122082500 386N1511E 65
1122082500 386N1511E 65
1122082500 386N1511E 65
1122082506 404N1528E 55
1122082506 404N1528E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 11W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 40.4N 152.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 40.4N 152.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 44.0N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 48.0N 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 41.3N 153.9E.
25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530
NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 40.5N, 152.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 40.5N 152.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 150NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 251800UTC 44.7N 157.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 260600UTC 48.6N 165.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 40.5N 152.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 150NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 48.6N 165.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 990
HPA
AT 40.5N 152.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 44.7N 157.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 48.6N 165.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 39.3N 151.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 25NM
30KT 150NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 251500UTC 43.7N 156.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 260300UTC 47.6N 163.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 250300
WARNING 250300.
WARNING VALID 260300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 980 HPA
AT 39.3N 151.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 25 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 43.7N 156.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 47.6N 163.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 39.3N 151.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 25NM
30KT 150NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 47.6N 163.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220825020353
2022082500 11W TOKAGE 012 02 030 18 SATL 060
T000 387N 1515E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 425N 1552E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 466N 1616E 040 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 38.7N 151.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.7N 151.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 42.5N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 46.6N 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 39.6N 152.4E.
25AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 260N1514E 45
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082418 371N1504E 75
1122082418 371N1504E 75
1122082418 371N1504E 75
1122082500 387N1515E 70
1122082500 387N1515E 70
1122082500 387N1515E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 38.7N 151.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.7N 151.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 42.5N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 46.6N 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 39.6N 152.4E.
25AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 38.4N, 151.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 38.4N 151.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 251200UTC 42.6N 154.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 260000UTC 46.8N 161.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 38.4N 151.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 46.8N 161.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 975 HPA
AT 38.4N 151.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 42.6N 154.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 46.8N 161.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 37.8N 150.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 250900UTC 41.6N 153.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 252100UTC 45.9N 159.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 261800UTC 50.5N 176.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 242100
WARNING 242100.
WARNING VALID 252100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 970 HPA
AT 37.8N 150.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 41.6N 153.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 45.9N 159.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 37.8N 150.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 45.9N 159.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 261800UTC 50.5N 176.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 37.2N, 150.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS DISAPPEARED. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220824192312
2022082418 11W TOKAGE 011 02 035 11 SATL 060
T000 371N 1504E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 404N 1533E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 444N 1584E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 484N 1661E 040 R034 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 37.1N 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.1N 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 40.4N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 44.4N 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 48.4N 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 151.1E.
24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 260N1514E 45
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082412 362N1496E 85
1122082418 371N1504E 75
1122082418 371N1504E 75
1122082418 371N1504E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 37.1N 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.1N 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 40.4N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 44.4N 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 48.4N 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 151.1E.
24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 37.2N 150.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 250600UTC 40.6N 152.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 251800UTC 44.8N 157.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 261800UTC 50.5N 176.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 37.2N 150.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 44.8N 157.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 261800UTC 50.5N 176.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 970 HPA
AT 37.2N 150.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 40.6N 152.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 44.8N 157.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 50.5N 176.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 36.6N 149.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 250300UTC 39.8N 152.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 251500UTC 43.8N 156.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 261200UTC 50.2N 172.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 970 HPA
AT 36.6N 149.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 39.8N 152.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 43.8N 156.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 36.6N 149.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 43.8N 156.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 261200UTC 50.2N 172.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220824133027
2022082412 11W TOKAGE 010 02 025 11 SATL 020
T000 362N 1496E 080 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 390N 1519E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 427N 1559E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 468N 1629E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 36.2N 149.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.2N 149.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 39.0N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 42.7N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 46.8N 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 150.2E.
24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z
AND 251500Z.
//
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 260N1514E 45
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082318 329N1486E 95
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082400 341N1486E 100
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082412 362N1496E 80
1122082412 362N1496E 80
1122082412 362N1496E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 36.2N 149.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.2N 149.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 39.0N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 42.7N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 46.8N 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 150.2E.
24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z
AND 251500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 36.2N, 149.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 36.2N 149.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 250000UTC 38.9N 151.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 251200UTC 42.8N 155.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 261200UTC 50.2N 172.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 36.2N 149.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 42.8N 155.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 261200UTC 50.2N 172.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 970 HPA
AT 36.2N 149.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 38.9N 151.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 42.8N 155.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 50.2N 172.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 240900
WARNING 240900.
WARNING VALID 250900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 970 HPA
AT 35.7N 149.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 38.2N 150.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 41.7N 154.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 35.7N 149.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 242100UTC 38.2N 150.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 250900UTC 41.7N 154.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 260600UTC 48.5N 165.6E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 35.7N 149.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 41.7N 154.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 260600UTC 48.5N 165.6E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220824065614
2022082406 11W TOKAGE 009 02 015 11 SATL 015
T000 352N 1490E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 377N 1505E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 408N 1533E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 447N 1584E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 486N 1665E 045 R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 35.2N 149.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.2N 149.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 37.7N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 40.8N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 44.7N 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 48.6N 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 35.8N 149.4E.
24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST
OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 260N1514E 45
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082318 329N1486E 90
1122082318 329N1486E 90
1122082318 329N1486E 90
1122082400 341N1486E 95
1122082400 341N1486E 95
1122082400 341N1486E 95
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
1122082406 352N1490E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240600 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 35.1N, 149E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 35.1N, 149E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 35.1N 149.0E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 241800UTC 37.3N 150.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 250600UTC 40.3N 152.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 260600UTC 48.5N 165.6E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 35.1N 149.0E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 40.3N 152.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 260600UTC 48.5N 165.6E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 970 HPA
AT 35.1N 149.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 37.3N 150.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 40.3N 152.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 48.5N 165.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 970 HPA
AT 34.7N 148.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 36.8N 149.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 39.3N 151.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 34.7N 148.7E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 241500UTC 36.8N 149.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 250300UTC 39.3N 151.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 260000UTC 46.6N 160.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 34.7N 148.7E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 39.3N 151.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 260000UTC 46.6N 160.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 34.1N 148.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 148.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 36.5N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 39.3N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 42.9N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 46.3N 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 148.8E.
24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST
OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS
31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220824015913
2022082400 11W TOKAGE 008 02 005 11 SATL 010
T000 341N 1486E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 365N 1493E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 393N 1511E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 429N 1547E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 463N 1603E 055 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 34.1N 148.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 148.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 36.5N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 39.3N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 42.9N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 46.3N 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 148.8E.
24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST
OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS
31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 260N1514E 45
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082318 330N1485E 90
1122082318 330N1485E 90
1122082318 330N1485E 90
1122082400 341N1486E 95
1122082400 341N1486E 95
1122082400 341N1486E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 34.1N, 148.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 34.1N 148.6E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 241200UTC 36.2N 149.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 250000UTC 38.5N 150.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 260000UTC 46.6N 160.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 34.1N 148.6E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 38.5N 150.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 260000UTC 46.6N 160.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 970 HPA
AT 34.1N 148.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 36.2N 149.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 38.5N 150.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 46.6N 160.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 33.5N 148.6E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 240900UTC 35.7N 149.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 242100UTC 37.9N 150.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 251800UTC 44.6N 157.1E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNE 23KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 261800UTC 50.8N 174.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 970 HPA
AT 33.5N 148.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 35.7N 149.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 37.9N 150.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 33.5N 148.6E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 37.9N 150.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 251800UTC 44.6N 157.1E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNE 23KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 261800UTC 50.8N 174.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220823205852
2022082318 11W TOKAGE 007 02 345 15 SATL 010
T000 330N 1485E 090 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 125 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 354N 1487E 100 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 381N 1501E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 411N 1527E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 448N 1579E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 515N 1721E 035 R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 007
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 33.0N 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.0N 148.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 35.4N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 38.1N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 41.1N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 44.8N 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 51.5N 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 148.5E.
23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z
AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 260N1514E 45
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082318 330N1485E 90
1122082318 330N1485E 90
1122082318 330N1485E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 33.0N 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.0N 148.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 35.4N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 38.1N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 41.1N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 44.8N 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 51.5N 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 148.5E.
23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z
AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 32.9N, 148.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 32.9N 148.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 240600UTC 35.2N 148.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 241800UTC 37.3N 150.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 251800UTC 44.6N 157.1E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNE 23KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 261800UTC 50.8N 174.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 32.9N 148.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 37.3N 150.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 251800UTC 44.6N 157.1E 105NM 70%
MOVE NNE 23KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 261800UTC 50.8N 174.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 970 HPA
AT 32.9N 148.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 35.2N 148.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 37.3N 150.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 44.6N 157.1E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 50.8N 174.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 32.1N 148.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 240300UTC 34.8N 148.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 241500UTC 37.0N 149.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 251200UTC 42.7N 154.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 261200UTC 50.5N 169.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 975 HPA
AT 32.1N 148.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 34.8N 148.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 37.0N 149.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 32.1N 148.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 37.0N 149.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 251200UTC 42.7N 154.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 261200UTC 50.5N 169.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220823133036
2022082312 11W TOKAGE 006 02 335 16 SATL 010
T000 316N 1490E 080 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 341N 1489E 100 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 367N 1496E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 398N 1520E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 431N 1562E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 497N 1695E 040 R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 31.6N 149.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 149.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 34.1N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 36.7N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 39.8N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 43.1N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 49.7N 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 32.2N 149.0E.
23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z,
240900Z AND 241500Z.//
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 260N1514E 45
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
1122082312 316N1490E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 31.6N 149.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 149.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 34.1N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 36.7N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 39.8N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 43.1N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 49.7N 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 32.2N 149.0E.
23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z,
240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 31.5N, 149.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 31.5N 149.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 240000UTC 34.2N 148.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 241200UTC 36.3N 149.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 251200UTC 42.7N 154.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 261200UTC 50.5N 169.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2210 TOKAGE (2210) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 31.5N 149.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 36.3N 149.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 251200UTC 42.7N 154.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 261200UTC 50.5N 169.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2210 TOKAGE (2210) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 31.5N 149.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 34.2N 148.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 36.3N 149.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 42.7N 154.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 50.5N 169.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 30.8N 149.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 232100UTC 33.5N 148.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 240900UTC 35.7N 149.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 250600UTC 40.3N 152.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 260600UTC 48.4N 163.3E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 230900
WARNING 230900.
WARNING VALID 240900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 985 HPA
AT 30.8N 149.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 33.5N 148.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 35.7N 149.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 30.8N 149.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 35.7N 149.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 250600UTC 40.3N 152.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 260600UTC 48.4N 163.3E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220823072505
2022082306 11W TOKAGE 005 02 340 17 SATL 020
T000 302N 1498E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 328N 1492E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 351N 1494E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 380N 1506E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 414N 1540E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 478N 1646E 040 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 005
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 30.2N 149.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 149.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 32.8N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 35.1N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 38.0N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 41.4N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 47.8N 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 149.6E.
23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 260N1514E 45
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082218 274N1506E 55
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082300 286N1505E 60
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
1122082306 302N1498E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 30.2N 149.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 149.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 32.8N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 35.1N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 38.0N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 41.4N 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 47.8N 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 149.6E.
23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 30.1N, 149.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 30.1N 149.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 231800UTC 33.0N 148.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 240600UTC 35.3N 149.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 250600UTC 40.3N 152.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 260600UTC 48.4N 163.3E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 30.1N 149.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 35.3N 149.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 250600UTC 40.3N 152.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 260600UTC 48.4N 163.3E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 985 HPA
AT 30.1N 149.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 33.0N 148.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 35.3N 149.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 40.3N 152.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 48.4N 163.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 230300
WARNING 230300.
WARNING VALID 240300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 990 HPA
AT 29.4N 150.4E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 16
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 32.2N 148.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 34.5N 148.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 29.4N 150.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 231500UTC 32.2N 148.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 240300UTC 34.5N 148.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 250000UTC 38.2N 150.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 260000UTC 44.7N 156.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 29.4N 150.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 34.5N 148.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 250000UTC 38.2N 150.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 260000UTC 44.7N 156.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220823012704
2022082300 11W TOKAGE 004 02 350 11 SATL 020
T000 285N 1505E 060 R050 055 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 310N 1496E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 337N 1493E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 356N 1499E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 383N 1516E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 470N 1596E 040 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 28.5N 150.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 150.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 31.0N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 33.7N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 35.6N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 38.3N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 47.0N 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1N 150.3E.
23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 260N1514E 45
1122082218 274N1507E 55
1122082218 274N1507E 55
1122082300 285N1505E 60
1122082300 285N1505E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 28.5N 150.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 150.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 31.0N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 33.7N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 35.6N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 38.3N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 47.0N 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1N 150.3E.
23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 28.6N, 150.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 28.6N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 231200UTC 31.5N 148.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 240000UTC 34.0N 148.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 250000UTC 38.2N 150.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 260000UTC 44.7N 156.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 28.6N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 34.0N 148.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 250000UTC 38.2N 150.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 260000UTC 44.7N 156.9E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 230000
WARNING 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 990 HPA
AT 28.6N 150.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 31.5N 148.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 34.0N 148.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 38.2N 150.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 44.7N 156.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 27.9N 150.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 230900UTC 31.0N 149.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 232100UTC 33.4N 148.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 241800UTC 37.0N 149.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 251800UTC 42.7N 154.8E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 27.9N 150.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 33.4N 148.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 241800UTC 37.0N 149.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 251800UTC 42.7N 154.8E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 222100
WARNING 222100.
WARNING VALID 232100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 992 HPA
AT 27.9N 150.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 31.0N 149.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 33.4N 148.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 222100
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 27.2N 151.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 151.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 29.6N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 32.1N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 34.1N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 36.1N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 42.7N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 151.1E.
22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 767
NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 27.5N, 151E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 27.5N 151.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 230600UTC 30.4N 149.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 231800UTC 32.8N 148.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 241800UTC 37.0N 149.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 251800UTC 42.7N 154.8E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2210 TOKAGE (2210) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 27.5N 151.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 32.8N 148.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 241800UTC 37.0N 149.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 251800UTC 42.7N 154.8E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 221800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
992 HPA
AT 27.5N 151.0E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 30.4N 149.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 32.8N 148.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 37.0N 149.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 42.7N 154.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 26.5N 151.6E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 230300UTC 29.9N 149.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 231500UTC 32.6N 148.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 241200UTC 36.6N 149.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 251200UTC 42.0N 154.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 261200UTC 48.9N 166.6E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 26.5N 151.6E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 32.6N 148.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 241200UTC 36.6N 149.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 251200UTC 42.0N 154.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 994 HPA
AT 26.5N 151.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 29.9N 149.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 32.6N 148.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220822135242

2022082212 11W TOKAGE 002 02 360 12 SATL 060
T000 261N 1517E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 285N 1509E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 309N 1500E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 329N 1496E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD
R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 348N 1497E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD
R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 410N 1525E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 456N 1573E 035 R034 050 NE QD 120 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
NNNN
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 26.1N 151.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 151.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 28.5N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 30.9N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 32.9N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 34.8N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 41.0N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 45.6N 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 151.5E.
22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 828
NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40
1122082212 261N1517E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 221500
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 26.1N 151.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 151.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 28.5N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 30.9N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 32.9N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 34.8N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 41.0N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 45.6N 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 151.5E.
22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 828
NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 26.2N, 151.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 26.2N 151.5E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 230000UTC 29.2N 150.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 231200UTC 32.0N 148.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 241200UTC 36.6N 149.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 251200UTC 42.0N 154.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 261200UTC 48.9N 166.6E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 26.2N 151.5E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 32.0N 148.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 241200UTC 36.6N 149.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 251200UTC 42.0N 154.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) 994 HPA
AT 26.2N 151.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 29.2N 150.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 32.0N 148.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 36.6N 149.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 42.0N 154.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 48.9N 166.6E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 25.6N 151.6E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 222100UTC 28.3N 150.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 230900UTC 31.1N 148.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 240600UTC 35.5N 148.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 250600UTC 39.9N 152.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 260600UTC 46.3N 163.7E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 25.6N 151.6E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 31.1N 148.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 240600UTC 35.5N 148.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 250600UTC 39.9N 152.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11W NWP 220822070755

2022082206 11W TOKAGE 001 02 015 09 SATL 060
T000 249N 1517E 040 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 272N 1512E 045 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 300N 1501E 050 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 320N 1494E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 338N 1492E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 362N 1500E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 430N 1547E 035 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
NNNN
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 24.9N 151.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 151.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.2N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 30.0N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 32.0N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 33.8N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 36.2N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 43.0N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 151.6E.
22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 880NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN,
HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
1122082100 215N1499E 20
1122082106 220N1506E 20
1122082112 226N1511E 20
1122082118 233N1514E 30
1122082200 240N1514E 35
1122082206 249N1517E 40

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 220900
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 24.9N 151.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 151.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.2N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 30.0N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 32.0N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 33.8N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 36.2N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 43.0N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 151.6E.
22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880
NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TS (TOKAGE) STATUS THREE HOURS AGO. TS
TOKAGE IS LOCATED AT 25.1N, 151.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 25.1N 151.6E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 221800UTC 27.6N 150.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 230600UTC 30.3N 149.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 240600UTC 35.5N 148.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 250600UTC 39.9N 152.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 260600UTC 46.3N 163.7E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2210 TOKAGE (2210)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 25.1N 151.6E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 30.3N 149.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 240600UTC 35.5N 148.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 250600UTC 39.9N 152.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 220600
WARNING 220600.
WARNING VALID 230600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2210 TOKAGE (2210) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 25.1N 151.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 27.6N 150.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 30.3N 149.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 35.5N 148.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 39.9N 152.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 46.3N 163.7E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>