Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ROKE-22
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 016 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 36.3N 152.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.3N 152.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 37.1N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 37.2N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 36.5N 153.2E.
02OCT22. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), RAPIDLY
TRANSITING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 012308Z ASCAT
INDICATED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD, WITH WINDS UP TO 55 KNOTS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION AND LESS THAN 35 KNOTS
IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE
JTWC MANUAL AND AUTOMATED PHASE CLASSIFICATION INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BECOMING A HYBRID TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH
CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL CYCLONE, SUCH AS A WARM CORE, AND
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT AND COOL
SSTS (24-26C). THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING HOWEVER, AN
EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOIN TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 25 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 35.4N 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.4N 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 36.7N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 37.0N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 37.3N 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 35.7N 151.0E. 01OCT22.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
514 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 011800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME LOW FROM 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 011800UTC 35.2N 150.1E
MOVEMENT NE 20KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 35N 150E
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 300NM =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 34.7N 149.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020300UTC 36.1N 152.6E 40NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 021500UTC 36.1N 155.2E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 992 HPA
AT 34.7N 149.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 36.1N 152.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 36.1N 155.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 34.1N 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 148.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 35.8N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 36.5N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 36.6N 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 149.3E.
01OCT22. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 011200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 011200UTC 34.0N 148.2E
MOVEMENT ENE 9KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 020000UTC 36.0N 151.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS ROKE IS LOCATED AT 34N, 148.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 34.0N 148.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 020000UTC 35.9N 151.8E 40NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 021200UTC 36.2N 154.7E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 992 HPA
AT 34.0N 148.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 35.9N 151.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 36.2N 154.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 33.6N 147.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 012100UTC 35.4N 150.9E 40NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 020900UTC 36.4N 154.0E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 010900
WARNING 010900.
WARNING VALID 020900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 992 HPA
AT 33.6N 147.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 23 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 35.4N 150.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 36.4N 154.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 010600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 010600UTC 33.1N 146.6E
MOVEMENT NE 23KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 011800UTC 35.0N 150.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS ROKE IS LOCATED AT 33N, 146.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 33.0N 146.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 011800UTC 34.7N 149.7E 40NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 020600UTC 36.4N 153.4E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 992 HPA
AT 33.0N 146.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 34.7N 149.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 36.4N 153.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 32.3N 145.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 011500UTC 34.5N 149.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 020300UTC 36.4N 152.9E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 010300
WARNING 010300.
WARNING VALID 020300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 992 HPA
AT 32.3N 145.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 34.5N 149.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 36.4N 152.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 31.8N 144.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.8N 144.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 33.8N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 35.8N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 36.6N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 37.2N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 32.3N 145.3E.
01OCT22. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 010000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 010000UTC 31.8N 144.5E
MOVEMENT ENE 17KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 011200UTC 34.0N 148.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 020000UTC 36.0N 150.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS ROKE IS LOCATED AT 31.7N, 144.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 31.7N 144.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 011200UTC 34.0N 148.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 020000UTC 36.2N 151.6E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 010000
WARNING 010000.
WARNING VALID 020000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 992 HPA
AT 31.7N 144.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 34.0N 148.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 36.2N 151.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 31.3N 143.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 010900UTC 33.6N 147.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 012100UTC 35.8N 150.4E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 302100
WARNING 302100.
WARNING VALID 012100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 992 HPA
AT 31.3N 143.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 33.6N 147.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 35.8N 150.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 30.6N 142.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 142.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 32.4N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 34.1N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 35.6N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 36.1N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 37.3N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 143.3E. 30SEP22.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS ROKE IS LOCATED AT 31.1N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 IN A
STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 301800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 301800UTC 31.0N 142.5E
MOVEMENT ENE 22KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 010600UTC 32.9N 146.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 011800UTC 34.8N 149.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 31.1N 142.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 010600UTC 33.1N 146.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 011800UTC 35.2N 149.5E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 992 HPA
AT 31.1N 142.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 33.1N 146.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 35.2N 149.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 30.6N 141.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM EAST 20NM WEST
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 010300UTC 32.0N 144.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 011500UTC 33.7N 147.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 021200UTC 36.0N 152.7E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS ROKE IS LOCATED AT 30.2N, 140.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL
FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT36. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 301200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 301200UTC 30.1N 140.3E
MOVEMENT ENE 22KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 010000UTC 31.6N 143.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 011200UTC 33.0N 146.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 020000UTC 34.9N 150.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 021200UTC 36.2N 152.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 30.2N 140.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM NORTHEAST 20NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 010000UTC 31.5N 143.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 011200UTC 32.9N 146.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 021200UTC 36.0N 152.7E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 301200
WARNING 301200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 990 HPA
AT 30.2N 140.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 20
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 31.5N 143.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 32.9N 146.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 36.0N 152.7E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 29.6N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 302100UTC 30.8N 142.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 010900UTC 32.3N 145.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 020600UTC 35.5N 150.6E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 300900
WARNING 300900.
WARNING VALID 010900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 29.6N 139.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 30.8N 142.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 32.3N 145.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 009
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 20W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 29.2N 137.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 137.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 30.5N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 32.2N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 33.8N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 35.3N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 37.0N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 138.7E.
30SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 300600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z
AND 010900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY ROKE IS LOCATED AT 28.9N, 138E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, DRY AIR AND
INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS
85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP
UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 300600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 300600UTC 29.0N 138.0E
MOVEMENT ENE 20KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 301800UTC 30.1N 140.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 010600UTC 31.4N 143.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 011800UTC 32.6N 146.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 020600UTC 35.3N 151.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 28.9N 138.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 301800UTC 30.1N 141.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 010600UTC 31.7N 144.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 020600UTC 35.5N 150.6E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2218 ROKE (2218) 980 HPA
AT 28.9N 138.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 30.1N 141.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 31.7N 144.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 35.5N 150.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 28.6N 137.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 301500UTC 29.7N 140.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 010300UTC 31.1N 143.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 020000UTC 34.1N 148.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 030000UTC 35.4N 152.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 300300
WARNING 300300.
WARNING VALID 010300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2218 ROKE (2218) 975 HPA
AT 28.6N 137.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 29.7N 140.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 31.1N 143.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 28.2N 135.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 135.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.5N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 30.7N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 32.0N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 33.4N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 35.2N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 36.6N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 136.3E.
30SEP22. TYPHOON 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 477 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 300000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z,
302100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY ROKE IS LOCATED AT 28.2N, 136E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 300000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 300000UTC 28.3N 135.9E
MOVEMENT ENE 19KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 301200UTC 29.5N 139.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 010000UTC 30.8N 141.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 011200UTC 32.0N 144.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 020000UTC 32.9N 146.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 030000UTC 36.2N 151.8E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 28.2N 136.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 301200UTC 29.4N 139.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 010000UTC 30.8N 142.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 020000UTC 34.1N 148.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 030000UTC 35.4N 152.5E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 300000
WARNING 300000.
WARNING VALID 010000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2218 ROKE (2218) 975 HPA
AT 28.2N 136.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 29.4N 139.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 30.8N 142.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 34.1N 148.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 35.4N 152.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 292100
WARNING 292100.
WARNING VALID 302100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2218 ROKE (2218) 975 HPA
AT 27.9N 135.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 29.1N 138.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 30.4N 141.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 27.9N 135.1E GOOD
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300900UTC 29.1N 138.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 302100UTC 30.4N 141.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 011800UTC 33.4N 147.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 021800UTC 35.1N 150.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 031800UTC 35.8N 152.4E 260NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 041800UTC 39.8N 157.4E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 27.2N 134.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 134.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.5N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.7N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 30.8N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 32.0N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 33.8N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 35.2N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 39.2N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 134.8E.
29SEP22. TYPHOON 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 291800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z,
301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY ROKE IS LOCATED AT 27.6N, 134.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 291800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 291800UTC 27.7N 134.2E
MOVEMENT ENE 22KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 300600UTC 28.7N 136.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 301800UTC 29.6N 139.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 010600UTC 30.9N 142.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 011800UTC 32.0N 145.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 021800UTC 33.6N 148.6E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 031800UTC 34.5N 149.8E WITHIN 150NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
120HR
POSITION 041800UTC 37.1N 153.1E WITHIN 205NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 27.6N 134.3E GOOD
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300600UTC 28.7N 137.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 301800UTC 30.1N 140.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 011800UTC 33.4N 147.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 021800UTC 35.1N 150.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 031800UTC 35.8N 152.4E 260NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 041800UTC 39.8N 157.4E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 291800
WARNING 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2218 ROKE (2218) 975 HPA
AT 27.6N 134.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 28.7N 137.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 30.1N 140.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 33.4N 147.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 35.1N 150.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 35.8N 152.4E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 39.8N 157.4E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2218 ROKE (2218) 980 HPA
AT 27.0N 133.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 28.3N 136.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 29.6N 139.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 291500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291500UTC 27.0N 133.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300300UTC 28.3N 136.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 301500UTC 29.6N 139.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 011200UTC 31.4N 144.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 021200UTC 33.3N 148.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 031200UTC 33.9N 149.3E 260NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 041200UTC 36.7N 152.7E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 26.7N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 28.2N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.6N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 30.6N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 31.2N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 31.9N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 33.2N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 35.7N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 27.1N 133.6E.
29SEP22. TYPHOON 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY ROKE IS LOCATED AT 26.6N, 133.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 291200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 291200UTC 27.0N 132.9E
MOVEMENT NNE 18KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 300000UTC 28.2N 135.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 301200UTC 29.2N 137.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 010000UTC 30.5N 140.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 011200UTC 31.8N 143.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 021200UTC 33.7N 147.8E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 031200UTC 34.1N 148.7E WITHIN 150NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
120HR
POSITION 041200UTC 36.4N 151.9E WITHIN 205NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2218 ROKE (2218) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 26.6N 133.1E GOOD
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 300000UTC 27.9N 135.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 301200UTC 29.2N 138.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 011200UTC 31.4N 144.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 021200UTC 33.3N 148.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 031200UTC 33.9N 149.3E 260NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 041200UTC 36.7N 152.7E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2218 ROKE (2218) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 980 HPA
AT 26.6N 133.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 27.9N 135.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 29.2N 138.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 31.4N 144.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 33.3N 148.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 33.9N 149.3E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 36.7N 152.7E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 26.1N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 292100UTC 27.6N 134.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 300900UTC 29.0N 137.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 010600UTC 31.0N 142.3E 105NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 020600UTC 32.7N 145.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 030600UTC 33.2N 147.1E 260NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 040600UTC 33.7N 148.2E 360NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 990 HPA
AT 26.1N 132.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 27.6N 134.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 29.0N 137.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 20W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 25.8N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 132.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 27.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.6N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.6N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 30.7N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 30.9N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 31.2N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 32.2N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 132.6E.
29SEP22. TYPHOON 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND
300900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS ROKE IS LOCATED AT 25.7N, 132E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS,
LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 290600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 290600UTC 25.8N 132.2E
MOVEMENT NNE 11KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 291800UTC 27.6N 134.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 300600UTC 28.7N 136.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 301800UTC 29.7N 138.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 010600UTC 30.4N 140.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 020600UTC 31.2N 141.9E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
96HR
POSITION 030600UTC 32.3N 142.9E WITHIN 150NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 33KT
120HR
POSITION 040600UTC 33.1N 143.7E WITHIN 205NM
PRES/VMAX 1004HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2218 ROKE (2218) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 25.7N 132.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 291800UTC 27.1N 133.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 300600UTC 28.5N 136.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 010600UTC 31.0N 142.3E 105NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 020600UTC 32.7N 145.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 030600UTC 33.2N 147.1E 260NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 040600UTC 33.7N 148.2E 360NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 290600
WARNING 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 25.7N 132.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 27.1N 133.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 28.5N 136.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 31.0N 142.3E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 32.7N 145.9E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 33.2N 147.1E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 33.7N 148.2E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 290300
WARNING 290300.
WARNING VALID 300300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 994 HPA
AT 25.3N 131.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 26.5N 132.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 27.9N 134.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 25.3N 131.8E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 291500UTC 26.5N 132.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 300300UTC 27.9N 134.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 010000UTC 29.6N 139.1E 105NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 020000UTC 30.4N 142.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 030000UTC 30.6N 142.9E 260NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 040000UTC 30.8N 143.7E 360NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 25.0N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 26.6N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 27.7N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 28.8N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.8N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 30.4N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 30.9N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 31.4N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 132.1E.
29SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z
AND 300300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (KULAP) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS ROKE IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 131.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND
STRONG VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 290000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 290000UTC 24.9N 131.7E
MOVEMENT NNE 9KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 291200UTC 26.6N 132.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 300000UTC 27.8N 134.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 301200UTC 28.9N 136.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 010000UTC 29.7N 138.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 020000UTC 30.2N 140.6E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
96HR
POSITION 030000UTC 30.6N 141.0E WITHIN 150NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 33KT
120HR
POSITION 040000UTC 30.9N 141.5E WITHIN 205NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 24.9N 131.6E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 291200UTC 26.1N 132.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 300000UTC 27.5N 134.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 010000UTC 29.6N 139.1E 105NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 020000UTC 30.4N 142.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 030000UTC 30.6N 142.9E 260NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 040000UTC 30.8N 143.7E 360NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 290000
WARNING 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 994 HPA
AT 24.9N 131.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 26.1N 132.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 27.5N 134.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 29.6N 139.1E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 30.4N 142.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 30.6N 142.9E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 30.8N 143.7E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 24.5N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290900UTC 25.8N 131.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 292100UTC 27.1N 133.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 301800UTC 29.0N 136.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 011800UTC 29.9N 139.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 021800UTC 30.1N 140.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 031800UTC 30.3N 140.7E 360NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 23.9N 131.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 131.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.9N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.0N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.0N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 30.3N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 30.8N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.9N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 131.7E.
28SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND
292100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (KULAP) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS ROKE IS LOCATED AT 23.8N, 131.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 281800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 2218 ROKE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 281800UTC 23.9N 131.6E
MOVEMENT NNE 11KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 290600UTC 25.6N 131.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
24HR
POSITION 291800UTC 26.9N 133.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 300600UTC 28.1N 135.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
48HR
POSITION 301800UTC 29.0N 136.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
72HR
POSITION 011800UTC 30.0N 139.1E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
96HR
POSITION 021800UTC 30.4N 139.4E WITHIN 150NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 33KT
120HR
POSITION 031800UTC 30.8N 139.5E WITHIN 205NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 23.8N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290600UTC 25.4N 131.7E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 291800UTC 26.7N 133.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 301800UTC 29.0N 136.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 011800UTC 29.9N 139.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 021800UTC 30.1N 140.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 031800UTC 30.3N 140.7E 360NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) 998 HPA
AT 23.8N 131.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 25.4N 131.7E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 26.7N 133.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 29.0N 136.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 29.9N 139.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 30.1N 140.2E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 30.3N 140.7E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2218 ROKE (2218)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 23.4N 131.2E POOR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290300UTC 24.8N 131.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 291500UTC 26.3N 132.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 301200UTC 28.2N 135.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 011200UTC 29.8N 138.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 021200UTC 30.2N 139.0E 260NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 031200UTC 30.4N 139.6E 360NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 23.1N 131.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 131.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.0N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 26.6N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 27.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 28.8N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 30.2N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 31.2N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 31.7N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 131.6E.
28SEP22. TROPICAL STORM 20W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (NORU) FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (KULAP) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2218 ROKE (2218)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 21.4N, 131.9E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(ROKE) STATUS. TS ROKE IS LOCATED AT 23N, 131.7E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

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Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2218 ROKE (2218) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 23.0N 131.7E POOR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290000UTC 24.4N 131.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 291200UTC 25.9N 132.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 301200UTC 28.2N 135.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 011200UTC 29.8N 138.2E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 021200UTC 30.2N 139.0E 260NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 031200UTC 30.4N 139.6E 360NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 281200
WARNING 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2218 ROKE (2218) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 23.0N 131.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 24.4N 131.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 25.9N 132.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 28.2N 135.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 29.8N 138.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 30.2N 139.0E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 30.4N 139.6E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280621SEP2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 132.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.9N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 25.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 27.0N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.2N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 29.6N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 30.7N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 31.7N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 132.1E.
28SEP22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
366 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (KULAP) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2.THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 280630).
//
NNNN

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