Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 240410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.10.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.10.2022 0 28.8N 57.7W 1016 28
1200UTC 24.10.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 100.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.10.2022 0 27.2N 100.7W 1005 24
1200UTC 24.10.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 38.0N 60.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.10.2022 132 38.1N 59.3W 1010 41
0000UTC 30.10.2022 144 39.2N 48.8W 1010 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 240410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.10.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.10.2022 28.8N 57.7W WEAK
12UTC 24.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 100.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.10.2022 27.2N 100.7W WEAK
12UTC 24.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 38.0N 60.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.10.2022 38.1N 59.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.10.2022 39.2N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240410

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 240237
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Roslyn Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the
low-level circulation of Roslyn has dissipated over east-central
Mexico. The system is now primarily a lower-tropospheric vorticity
maximum, which should continue to weaken overnight and ultimately
be absorbed into a frontal boundary over Texas tomorrow.

Roslyn's remnants are moving quickly northeastward, at about 040/19
kt. This general motion should continue into early Monday.
Although a 12-hour forecast position is provided for continuity, it
is likely that the system will have lost its identity by that time.

This is the last advisory on Roslyn.


Key Messages:

1. Lingering heavy rainfall from the remnants of Roslyn could lead
to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged
terrain over coastal west-central Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 26.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 28.0N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 240236
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Roslyn Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...ROSLYN DISSIPATES OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 101.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF MONTERREY MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Roslyn were located near
latitude 26.0 North, longitude 101.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is likely overnight
while the remnants lose their identity.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Roslyn's remnants are expected to produce up to an
additional inch of rain across northeastern Mexico and an additional
1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of coastal and west-central
Mexico. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides
in areas of rugged terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 240236
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
0300 UTC MON OCT 24 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 101.0W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 101.0W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.0N 99.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 101.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 232331
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ROSLYN CONTINUES
TO SPREAD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 102.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF THE TORREON MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Roslyn
was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 102.5 West.
Roslyn is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and
this general motion is forecast to continue through tonight. On the
forecast track, Roslyn or its remnants will continue to move inland
over central Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to continue, and Roslyn is
forecast to dissipate tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rain across southern Durango, Sinaloa into portions of Nayarit,
Zacatecas and Jalisco. A maximum storm total rainfall of 10
inches is expected. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and
landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 232037
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Roslyn has continued to move inland
over west-central Mexico this afternoon. It appears that the low-
and mid-level centers have decoupled due to the system's interaction
with mountainous terrain and increasing southwesterly vertical wind
shear. The initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, and is
based on a typical overland decay rate. Continued rapid weakening
is expected, and the low-level center is likely to dissipate this
evening or overnight over central Mexico.

Roslyn is moving north-northeastward at about 18 kt. The cyclone
or its remnants should continue move north-northeastward over
central and northeastern Mexico through early Monday. A 12-hour
forecast position has been provided for the sake of continuity, but
it is expected that the low-level circulation will have dissipated
by that time.

Key Messages:

1. Strong winds gusts, especially in mountainous terrain, will
continue near the track of Roslyn during the next several hours.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal west-central
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 24.6N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/0600Z 26.8N 101.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 232037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND RISK OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO SPREAD
INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 103.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF THE CITY OF DURANGO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 103.5 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion
is forecast to continue through tonight. On the forecast track,
Roslyn or its remnants will continue to move inland over central
Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and
Roslyn is forecast to become a tropical depression by this evening
and dissipate tonight or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland
over central portions of Mexico during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rain across southern Durango, Sinaloa into portions of Nayarit,
Zacatecas and Jalisco. A maximum storm total rainfall of 10
inches is expected. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and
landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 232036
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 103.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 103.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 104.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.8N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 103.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 231743
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 104.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF THE CITY OF DURANGO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings south of San
Blas. The Hurricane Warning from San Blas to Escuinapa has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
today. On the forecast track, Roslyn will move farther inland over
west-central Mexico through this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and
Roslyn is forecast to become a tropical depression by this evening
and dissipate tonight or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).
An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the
state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a
gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) within the past hour or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland
through portions of west-central Mexico through late afternoon or
early evening. Wind speeds atop hills and mountains are often up
to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in
this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of west-central Mexico:

Upper coast of Jalisco, Nayarit including Islas Marias: 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches.

Southeastern Sinaloa, southern Durango into southwestern Zacatecas:
4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coast of Mexico within the
warning area should gradually subside this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn will affect portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 231611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.10.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 30.5N 52.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.10.2022 0 30.5N 52.7W 1018 27
0000UTC 24.10.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ROSLYN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.1N 105.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.10.2022 0 22.1N 105.5W 978 56
0000UTC 24.10.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 32.2N 64.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2022 36 32.2N 64.5W 1013 27
1200UTC 25.10.2022 48 33.5N 66.0W 1012 27
0000UTC 26.10.2022 60 35.5N 66.5W 1011 26
1200UTC 26.10.2022 72 38.6N 67.1W 1009 25
0000UTC 27.10.2022 84 42.3N 67.8W 1006 24
1200UTC 27.10.2022 96 46.4N 65.2W 1003 27
0000UTC 28.10.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 32.1N 66.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.10.2022 132 31.8N 65.9W 1010 31
1200UTC 29.10.2022 144 33.4N 64.0W 1010 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231610

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 231453
TCDEP4

Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

Satellite imagery indicated that Roslyn made landfall earlier this
morning around 1120 UTC near Santa Cruz in the Mexican state of
Nayarit. The maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressure
were estimated to be 105 kt and 958 mb, respectively. An observing
site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe Angeles in the state of
Nayarit reported sustained winds of 71 kt and a gust of 108 kt
within the past hour or so. The hurricane has moved farther inland
and the initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt based on a
standard inland decay rate. Rapid weakening is expected to continue
to occur today as Roslyn interacts with the mountainous terrain of
west-central Mexico and encounters strengthening vertical wind
shear. The cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm this
afternoon and dissipate tonight or early Monday, if not sooner.

Roslyn is moving north-northeastward at 17 kt. The track forecast
reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should continue to
accelerate across west-central Mexico towards the north-northeast
for the next day or so along the northwest periphery of a mid-level
ridge until dissipation occurs. A 24 hour position has been
forecast for the sake of continuity, though it is expected that
the low-level circulation will have dissipated by then.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging winds will spread inland along the track of Roslyn over
west-central mainland Mexico through late this afternoon.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal west-central
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 22.8N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 27.6N 101.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 231452
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...CENTER OF ROSLYN MOVING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
FLOODING RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 105.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CITY OF DURANGO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for
Las Islas Marias. All warnings south of Punta Mita have been
discontinued as well as the Hurricane Watch from Escuinapa to
Mazatlan.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to Escuinapa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 105.0 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
today. On the forecast track, Roslyn will move farther inland over
west-central Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as the hurricane
moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). An observing site at Marismas Nacionales near Felipe
Angeles in the state of Nayarit reported sustained winds of 82 mph
(132 km/h) and a gust to 124 mph (200 km/h) within the past hour or
so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread inland along
the track of Roslyn into this afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread inland through
portions of west-central Mexico through late afternoon or early
evening.

Wind speeds atop hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent
stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and
in some elevated locations could be even greater.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of west-central Mexico:

Upper coast of Jalisco, Nayarit including Islas Marias: 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches.

Southeastern Sinaloa, southern Durango into southwestern Zacatecas:
4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Roslyn is expected to produce a life-threatening storm
surge with significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds
through today. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 231450
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
LAS ISLAS MARIAS. ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF PUNTA MITA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED AS WELL AS THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ESCUINAPA TO
MAZATLAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO ESCUINAPA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 105.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 105.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.6N 101.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 105.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 231155
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
600 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022


...CENTER OF ROSLYN MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN NAYARIT...
...BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 105.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 105.5 West. Roslyn is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today. On the
forecast track, Roslyn will move farther inland over west-central
Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Roslyn is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Now that Roslyn has made landfall, rapid
weakening is expected as the hurricane moves farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue to
spread inland within the warning area today. Wind speeds atop hills
and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated
locations could be even greater.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
this morning.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the
northern coast.

Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias, and
southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8
inches.

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Roslyn is expected to produce a life-threatening storm
surge with significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds
through today. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula through tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ64 KNHC 231124
TCUEP4

Hurricane Roslyn Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
520 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...ROSLYN MAKES LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...

Satellite imagery indicates that Roslyn has made landfall in
west-central mainland Mexico near Santa Cruz in northern Nayarit
around 520 AM MDT (1120 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h), and the minimum central pressure
is estimated to be 960 mb (28.35 inches).

SUMMARY OF 520 AM MDT...1120 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 105.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 230840
TCDEP4

Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022

Roslyn is nearing west-central Mexico this morning, with a cloud
pattern that is becoming a little less organized with a more
obscured eye. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
provided valuable data this evening, despite severe turbulence,
showing that the hurricane hasn't lost much strength, with
flight-level and SFMR winds both supporting a current intensity of
110 kt. This intensity also matches a slightly higher central
pressure of about 958 mb, up just a few mb since the last
reconnaissance mission.

Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery show that Roslyn has
turned to the north-northeast and is moving faster, at about 14 kt.
The hurricane should continue to accelerate and make landfall in
the next several hours, likely in northern Nayarit, similar to the
track models. There isn't much time left for any increase in shear
to affect Roslyn, and the hurricane is expected to make landfall
at about its current strength. Rapid weakening will occur over the
mountainous terrain of western Mexico later this morning, and Roslyn
should lose its circulation this evening. No significant changes
were made to the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall
along the west-central coast of Mexico within the next several
hours, accompanied by damaging winds and a life-threatening storm
surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning area along the
west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 21.1N 106.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 23.2N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 230838
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...HURRICANE ROSLYN EXPECTED TO DELIVER DAMAGING WINDS, A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SOON...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 106.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF TEPIC MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 106.1 West. Roslyn is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today. On
the forecast track, Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central
Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state
of Nayarit this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Roslyn is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is anticipated
before landfall later this morning, and rapid weakening is expected
after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches),
based on earlier Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are already occuring over Islas
Marias and are expected to reach the coast within the mainland
hurricane warning area soon. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula through this morning and within
the warning area north of Escuinapa later today.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the
northern coast.

Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias, and
southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8
inches.

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Roslyn is expected to produce a life-threatening
storm surge with significant coastal flooding near and to the east
of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 230838
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
0900 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO ESCUINAPA
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO
* NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 106.1W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 105SE 105SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 106.1W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 106.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.2N 104.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 106.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 230553
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1200 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ROSLYN FORECAST TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS, A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Roslyn was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
20.5 North, longitude 106.4 West. Roslyn is moving toward the
north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a faster motion toward the
north-northeast is expected today. On the forecast track, the
center of Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central Mexico,
likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state
of Nayarit this morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some weakening is possible early
today, Roslyn is expected to be at or near major hurricane intensity
when it makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure reported from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter dropsonde data is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area within the next few hours. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula through this morning and within
the warning area north of Escuinapa later today.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches.

Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the
northern coast.

Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias, and
southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8
inches.

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: Roslyn is expected to produce a life-threatening
storm surge with significant coastal flooding near and to the east
of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 230244
TCDEP4

Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Roslyn remains a formidable hurricane with a symmetrical Central
Dense Overcast containing very intense, deep convection. An eye has
been occasionally evident on the enhanced IR imagery. Convective
banding features are most prevalent over the eastern and
southeastern portions of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is
well-defined over the northern semicircle of the system. The
current intensity is held at 115 kt in accordance with subjective
Dvorak CI numbers from SAB and TAFB.

The hurricane has made its expected turn to the north and the
initial motion is now near 360/10 kt. The expected steering regime
through Sunday remains about the same as before. Roslyn should move
around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric high, and to the
east of a broad trough near the Baja California peninsula. The track
guidance is in good agreement on a north-northeastward motion with
further acceleration, bringing the system ashore over the Mexican
state of Nayarit on Sunday. The official track forecast is just
slightly to the left of, but not significantly different than, the
previous NHC prediction. This is also very close to the latest
dynamical model consensus and in between the GFS and ECMWF tracks
which have come into better agreement.

Prior to landfall, some increase in southwesterly shear over Roslyn
is predicted by the global models. Therefore, slight weakening is
possible during the next 12 hours. Nonetheless, given the conducive
thermodynamic environment including very warm ocean waters with SSTs
of 29 deg C or higher, it is expected that Roslyn will still be near
major hurricane intensity when its center crosses the coastline.
After landfall, rapid weakening will occur over the mountainous
terrain of western Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength
when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico tonight and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds and a
dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning
area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to
completion.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 20.0N 106.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 21.9N 105.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 230243
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 106.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 106.6 West. Roslyn is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a faster motion toward
the north-northeast is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central Mexico,
likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of
Nayarit Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some weakening is possible
tonight and early Sunday, Roslyn is expected to be at or near
major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area tonight and early Sunday. Winds are
likely near tropical storm strength over portions of the area.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula tonight, and within the warning
area north of Escuinapa on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches.

Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the
northern coast.

Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias, and
southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8
inches.

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 230243
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
0300 UTC SUN OCT 23 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO ESCUINAPA
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO
* NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.6W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 105SE 135SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.6W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.9N 105.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 106.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 222341
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
600 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 106.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 106.7 West. Roslyn is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion should
continue tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the
north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making
landfall along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some weakening could occur tonight,
Roslyn is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it makes landfall on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength during the
next few hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula this evening or tonight, and
within the warning area north of Escuinapa on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the
northern coast.

Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias, and
southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8
inches.

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 222053
TCDEP4

Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Roslyn
found 700-mb flight-level winds of 124 kt in the northeastern
eyewall and a central pressure of 954 mb. These data, combined with
multiple satellite intensity estimates near 115 kt, support keeping
the initial intensity at 115 kt. That make Roslyn a Category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/8 kt. Roslyn
should turn northward during the next few hours, followed by a
north-northeastward motion as it moves around the western periphery
of a mid-level high centered over Mexico. The track guidance
continues to indicate that the hurricane will pass just offshore of
Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, tonight, and then accelerate north-
northeastward on Sunday, likely making landfall on the coast of the
Mexican state of Nayarit. After landfall, Roslyn or its remnants
are expected to accelerate toward the northeast over northern
Mexico until the cyclone dissipates. The new forecast track is a
little to the left of the previous track through 12 h based on a
more westward initial position. However, after that time it is
similar to the previous forecast.

Roslyn is likely near peak intensity, as it is moving into an area
of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. Due to this and
the trend in the guidance, the new intensity forecast shows slight
weakening before landfall. However, Roslyn is still expected to be
at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on
Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves
through the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidental, and the new
intensity forecast now calls for the cyclone to dissipate between
36-48 h.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength
when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico tonight and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds and a
dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning
area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to
completion.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.0N 106.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.4N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 23.2N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 26.0N 102.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 222053
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS THAT ROSLYN
IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 106.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of Mexico from El Roblito to Escuinapa.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Escuinapa
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of Escuinapa to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.6 West. Roslyn is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected during the next few hours, followed by a faster
motion toward the north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Roslyn will approach the coast of west-central
Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the Mexican state
of Nayarit Sunday morning.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although some weakening
could occur tonight, Roslyn is expected to at or near major
hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength during the
next several hours, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula this afternoon or tonight, and
within the warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the
northern coast.

Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and
southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8
inches.

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 222053
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
2100 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO ESCUINAPA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO ESCUINAPA
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO
* NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 135SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.4N 106.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.2N 104.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 102.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 106.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 221751
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1200 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER NOW INVESTIGATING ROSLYN...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 106.6 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today and tonight, followed by a
faster motion toward the north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico through midday today, then approach the coast of
west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the
Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast this
afternoon. Although some weakening is possible beginning tonight,
Roslyn is expected to still be near or at major hurricane strength
when it makes landfall on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula today or tonight, and within the
warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the
northern coast.

Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and
southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 221440
TCDEP4

Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Roslyn has intensified further during the past several hours, as
the hurricane continues to show a small well-defined eye inside of
a cold central dense overcast. Given the rate of intensification,
the actual intensity is a bit of a moving target. However, the
latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are
currently in the 105-115 kt range, and based on the latest CIMSS
Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate the initial intensity is
increased to 115 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Roslyn.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 330/7 kt. The
track forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous advisory.
Roslyn is expected to continue recurving around the western
periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico during the next
36 hours. The track guidance continues to indicate that the
hurricane will pass just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico,
tonight, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday, likely
making landfall on the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit. After
landfall, Roslyn or its remnants are expected to accelerate toward
the northeast over northern Mexico. The new forecast track has
mainly noise-level adjustments from the previous forecast, and it
lies near the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening during the
next 6-12 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Roslyn to
strengthen some more during that time. After that, increasing
southwesterly vertical shear and land interaction should cause some
weakening before landfall. However, Roslyn is still expected to be
at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on
Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves
through the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidentals. The
intensity forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low by
48 h and dissipate soon thereafter. However, both of these could
occur earlier than currently forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength
when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds
and a dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane
Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be
rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 18.0N 106.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 221439
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...ROSLYN BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS IT TURNS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 106.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 106.3 West. Roslyn is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster
motion toward the north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast
of Mexico through midday today, then approach the coast of
west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the
Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast today. Although some weakening is possible beginning
tonight, Roslyn is expected to still be near or at major hurricane
strength when it makes landfall on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently en route to investigate Roslyn.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula today or tonight, and within the
warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the
northern coast.

Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and
southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 221439
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
1500 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 106.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 221139
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
600 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...MAJOR HURRICANE ROSLYN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 106.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.3 West. Roslyn is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight,
followed by a faster motion toward the north-northeast on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico through midday today, then approach the
coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast
of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Roslyn is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast today. Although
some weakening is possible beginning tonight, Roslyn is expected to
still be near or at major hurricane strength when it makes landfall
on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula today or tonight, and within the
warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 220846
TCDEP4

Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Roslyn has intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours. A
well-defined eye has formed in infrared satellite imagery since the
time of the previous advisory, with cloud tops in the surrounding
central dense overcast (CDO) as cold as -80 degrees Celsius. The
satellite presentation has improved significantly enough to yield
Dvorak data-T numbers of 5.5 (102 kt) from TAFB and SAB at 06 UTC.
Since Roslyn's structure has improved a bit since that time, the
initial intensity is set at 105 kt.

The initial motion is now northwestward, or 315/6 kt. Roslyn is
expected to continue recurving around the western periphery of a
mid-level high centered over Mexico during the next 36 hours. The
bulk of the track models indicate that the hurricane will pass just
offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, by tonight, and then
accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday, likely making landfall
on the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit. After landfall,
Roslyn's remnants are expected to accelerate toward the northeast
over northern Mexico. The updated NHC track forecast shows a
slightly wider recurvature than the previous forecast during
the first 24 hours, following the tightly clustered model
solutions, but the expected landfall ends up in the same general
location as before.

Roslyn has roughly another 12 hours before deep-layer southwesterly
shear increases to moderate levels. But before that happens, the
environment appears conducive for additional strengthening,
possibly still at a rapid rate. SHIPS Rapid Intensification
indices indicate there is a 50/50 chance of a 20-kt increase in
winds over the next 12 hours, and given the short-term satellite
trends, the NHC intensity forecast now shows Roslyn reaching
category 4 intensity later today. The increase in shear should
induce some weakening in the last few hours while Roslyn approaches
the coast of Mexico, but the storm could still be at or near major
hurricane strength around the time of landfall on Sunday. After
landfall, the 5000- to 8000-ft mountains of the Sierra Madre
Occidentals are expected to significantly disrupt Rosalyn's
circulation, and even though a remnant low is shown in the forecast
over the Mexican Plateau at 48 hours, it's likely that Rosalyn will
have dissipated by that time.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength
when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds
and a dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane
Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be
rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 17.3N 106.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.3N 106.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 20.1N 106.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 22.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 25.7N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 220845
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
300 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...ROSLYN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 106.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning north
of El Roblito to Mazatlan.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 106.1 West. Roslyn is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight,
followed by a faster motion toward the north-northeast on Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to
the southwestern coast of Mexico through midday today, then
approach the coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall
along the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Roslyn is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast today. Although some weakening is possible beginning
tonight, Roslyn is expected to still be near or at major hurricane
strength when it makes landfall on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula today or tonight, and within the
warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 220845
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
0900 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH
OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.1W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.3N 106.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.1N 106.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.6N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.7N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 106.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 220533
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
100 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...ROSLYN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 105.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 105.8 West. Roslyn is now
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected later today, followed by
a faster north-northeastward motion tonight and on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico through this morning, then approach the
coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall along this coastline
tonight or Sunday morning.

Satellite images indicate that Roslyn is rapidly intensifying, and
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued strengthening, possibly rapid, is
forecast during the next day or so, and Roslyn is likely to be
near or at major hurricane intensity when it nears the coast of
Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by late today or early Sunday. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday
today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
beginning tonight or early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by this evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area today or tonight.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches.

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 212345
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 105.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 105.3 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected overnight,
followed by turn to the north on Saturday and a north-northeastward
motion Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico
tonight and early Saturday, then approach the coast of west-central
Mexico, making landfall along this coastline Saturday night or
Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane later
tonight. Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches
the coast of west-central Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by late Saturday or Saturday night.
Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday
Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 212043
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Roslyn continues to gradually become
better organized, with the center now embedded in a well-defined
central dense overcast. In addition, convective banding has
increased outside of the CDO, suggesting that the dry air earlier
seen in the circulation is mixing out. Various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have nudged upward, so
the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. The wind radii have
been adjusted downward based on data from a recent ASCAT overpass.

The latest imagery and the scatterometer data confirm that Roslyn
has been moving to the left of the previous forecast, and the
initial position for this advisory is a slight re-location. The
initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/6. Overall, there is no
change in the track forecast philosophy, as Roslyn is still
expected to recurve around the western edge of a mid-level ridge
that will migrate eastward across Mexico during the next couple of
days. This will lead to the center passing near or a little west
of Cabo Corrientes in about 36 h, followed by landfall in mainland
Mexico. However, a combination of the current westward nudge and
an eastward shift in the track guidance results in the new forecast
track being to the west of the previous track through 24 h and a
little to the east of the previous track after that time. The new
forecast is also faster to bring the center to the coast of Mexico,
with landfall now shown between 36-48 h. The new forecast track
lies near the consensus models through 24 h, and thereafter lies a
little to the west of the consensus models.

Roslyn has a small inner core, and light vertical wind shear
conditions are expected during the next 24-30 h. Since the dry air
seems to be mixing out, this should allow Roslyn to steadily to
rapidly intensify during this time. The rapid intensification
indices in the SHIPS model suggest a good chance of 25-35 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 h, and the new intensity forecast
calls for a possibly conservative 25 kt of strengthening during
this time. After that time, the latest large-scale models
forecast increasing shear, and there is uncertainty on how soon
land interaction will occur. Based on this, the intensity forecast
shows a little more strengthening through 36 h, followed by rapid
weakening after the center makes landfall. The system should
dissipate completely over the mountains of Mexico between 60-72 h.

The new forecast requires a northward extension of the hurricane
warnings and watches along the coast of Mexico and for the Islas
Marias. Additional watches and warnings could be required tonight
and Saturday.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near and
makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday
and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous
storm surge. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for a portion of
the west-central coast of Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 16.4N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.0N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 18.3N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 20.2N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 22.6N 105.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0600Z 25.7N 102.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 212042
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN NOW JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 105.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Punta Mita northward to San Blas, and for the
Islas Marias.

The Government of Mexico has also issued a Hurricane Watch from El
Roblito northward to Mazatlan.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 105.0 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this evening. A turn toward
the northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight, followed by
a northward and then north-northeastward motion Saturday and
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will
move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight,
then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall
along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane later
tonight. In addition, Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane
when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by late Saturday or Saturday night.
Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday
Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 212042
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
2100 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MITA NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS...AND FOR THE
ISLAS MARIAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM EL
ROBLITO NORTHWARD TO MAZATLAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSLYN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 105.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.3N 106.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.2N 106.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.6N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.7N 102.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 105.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 211746
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE
COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 104.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warnings is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.8 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight and Saturday,
followed by a northward and then north-northeastward motion Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will
move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight,
then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall
along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. While Roslyn has changed little in strength over the past
several hours, rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane later today or
tonight. In addition, Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane
when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by late Saturday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by midday Saturday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches
Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 211456
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Visible satellite imagery suggests that Roslyn is getting better
organized, with the formation of a central dense overcast with
overshooting tops near the center. A recent GMI overpass indicates
these tops are related to a partial eyewall that has formed under
the overcast. The various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates remain near 55 kt, and based on these data the
initial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory. One note
is that there seem to be a tongue of dry air wrapping cyclonically
around the CDO from the northwest to southeast. It should be noted
that the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for
this afternoon has been canceled due to mechanical issues.

The recent satellite data suggest that the center is a little south
of the previous track, and the initial motion is a somewhat
uncertain 300/6 kt. Despite this shift, there is little change in
the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Roslyn
is still expected to recurve around the western edge of a mid-level
ridge that will migrate eastward across Mexico during the next
couple of days. This will lead to the center passing near or a
little west of Cabo Corrientes in about 36 h, followed by landfall
in mainland Mexico. There is little change to either the forecast
guidance or the official forecast track since the last advisory,
and the new track lies near or just east of the various consensus
models.

Since Roslyn is developing a better defined inner core, its current
environment of light shear and warm sea surface temperatures could
allow for rapid intensification. One obstacle to that, though, is
the dry air currently near the core. The GFS, HRWF, and HMON models
forecast this dry air to get mixed out during the next 12-24 h, and
based on this premise, the new intensity forecast will follow the
previous forecast in showing rapid strengthening to a peak intensity
of 95 kt before landfall. After landfall, Roslyn is expected to
rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico, and although the
official forecast shows a remnant low over northern Mexico in 72
hours for continuity, Roslyn will likely dissipate before then.

The new forecast requires a northward extension of the hurricane
warning along the coast of Mexico. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required on the next advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near and
makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday
and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous
storm surge. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for a portion of
the west-central coast of Mexico and will likely be extended
northward later today.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 16.4N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.0N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.1N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 19.6N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 21.7N 105.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 24.4N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/1200Z 27.1N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 211456
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO
THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 104.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warnings is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.4 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight and Saturday,
followed by a northward and then north-northeastward motion Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will
move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight,
then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall
along this coastline Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
and Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Roslyn is
expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of
west-central Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by late Saturday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by midday Saturday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches
Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 211455
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
1500 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSLYN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.4W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.4W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.0N 105.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.1N 106.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.6N 106.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.7N 105.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 104.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 104.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 211137
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 104.1W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warnings is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.1 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight and Saturday,
followed by a northward and then north-northeastward motion Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will
move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight,
then approach the coast of west-central Mexico, making landfall
along this coastline between Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
and Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Roslyn is
expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of
west-central Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the hurricane warning area by late Saturday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday Saturday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoacan: 1 to 3 inches
Colima and Jalisco: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches
Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 210839
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

Roslyn's structure has evolved since the previous advisory. A more
distinct core of deep convection appears to be developing, and
infrared satellite images have even shown hints of an eye feature
during the past few hours. An elongated convective band now
extends around the northeastern and southeastern quadrants of the
circulation. Based on consensus Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from TAFB
and SAB, and a CI number of 3.4 from the UW-CIMSS ADT, Roslyn is
now estimated to have maximum winds of 55 kt.

Recent scatterometer data and conventional satellite images
indicate that Roslyn's center is a bit to the northeast of where it
was estimated to be last evening, and the initial motion is
west-northwestward, or 300/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning has
not changed. Roslyn is expected to recurve around the western edge
of a mid-level area of high pressure that will migrate eastward
across Mexico during the next couple of days. In 2 to 3 days,
Roslyn and its remnants are then expected to accelerate
north-northeastward in the flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer
mid-latitude trough. With the exception of the UKMET model (which
is a western outlier), there is very little cross-track spread
among the other track models, and most of the differences are in
the forward speeds after 36 hours. The biggest change in this
forecast package is that with the northeastward adjustment of
Roslyn's center, the entire official track forecast has been
shifted east of the previous prediction, and lies close to the
updated TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

If Roslyn is indeed developing a better-defined core, environmental
conditions could support rapid intensification (RI). The SHIPS RI
indices are now showing a 50 to 60 percent chance of a 30-kt
increase in intensity over the next 24 hours, and the HWRF,
COAMPS-TC, and HCCA consensus aids are all showing RI. RI is
therefore now explicitly forecast, and Roslyn should reach
hurricane strength later today. In 36 to 48 hours, an increase in
southwesterly shear could induce some weakening, but regardless,
Roslyn is expected to reach the coast of west-central Mexico as a
hurricane. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and
although the official forecast shows a remnant low over northern
Mexico in 72 hours for continuity, Roslyn is likely to have
dissipated by that time.

Given the relocation of Roslyn's center and the updates to the
forecast, hurricane and tropical storm warnings are now in effect
for portions of the west-central coast of Mexico. Hurricane
watches have also been extended northward along the coast.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near and
makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday
and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous
storm surge. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for a portion of
the west-central coast of Mexico and will likely be extended
northward later today.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.2N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.6N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.4N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 18.7N 106.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.5N 106.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 23.0N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 25.7N 103.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 210838
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN STILL STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 103.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Playa
Perula to Cabo Corrientes and a Tropical Storm Warning south of
Playa Perula to Manzanillo. A Hurricane Watch has also been issued
for Las Islas Marias and from San Blas to El Roblito.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warnings is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico should monitor the progress of Roslyn. Additional watches
or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 103.8 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest is forecast tonight and Saturday,
followed by a northward and then north-northeastward motion
Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico
today and tonight, and pass near and make landfall along the coast
of west-central Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane later
today. Roslyn is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches
the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the hurricane warning area by late Saturday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength by midday Saturday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
beginning Saturday night or early Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Saturday evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoacan: 1 to 3 inches
Colima and Jalisco: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches
Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 210838
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
0900 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA
PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF
PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS AND FROM SAN BLAS TO EL ROBLITO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSLYN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 103.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.6N 104.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 105.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.7N 106.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 105.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.7N 103.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 103.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 210547
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
100 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2022

...ROSLYN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR
NOW...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 103.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico south of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico and the Islas Marias should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for
portions of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.6 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward
the northwest is expected today, followed by a north-northwestward
motion on Saturday and a northward motion Saturday night into
Sunday. On the forecast track, Roslyn is expected to move parallel
to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday, then approach
the west-central coast of Mexico on Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane by this evening or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area along the coast of mainland Mexico by Saturday evening, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area on
Saturday.

RAINFALL: The outer rainbands of Roslyn may produce rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacán and
2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along coastal areas
of Colima and Jalisco. Roslyn is also forecast to bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit including Islas Marias,
and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding
and landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 210410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 103.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.10.2022 0 15.2N 103.9W 1004 30
1200UTC 21.10.2022 12 15.7N 104.8W 1002 37
0000UTC 22.10.2022 24 16.7N 106.4W 1001 36
1200UTC 22.10.2022 36 18.0N 107.6W 999 34
0000UTC 23.10.2022 48 19.8N 107.9W 997 44
1200UTC 23.10.2022 60 21.7N 107.1W 1000 43
0000UTC 24.10.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 33.4N 75.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.10.2022 60 33.4N 75.7W 1010 35
0000UTC 24.10.2022 72 34.7N 74.8W 1013 25
1200UTC 24.10.2022 84 37.0N 73.8W 1016 23
0000UTC 25.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 210410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 103.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.10.2022 15.2N 103.9W WEAK
12UTC 21.10.2022 15.7N 104.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2022 16.7N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2022 18.0N 107.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2022 19.8N 107.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2022 21.7N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 33.4N 75.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.10.2022 33.4N 75.7W WEAK
00UTC 24.10.2022 34.7N 74.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2022 37.0N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210410

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 210243
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

Roslyn looks better organized on satellite imagery this evening.
Deep convection has increased near and over the estimated center
position, and the expanding dense convective overcast has cloud tops
colder than -75 to -80 deg C. The objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON
estimates have increased to 40-45 kt, and SAB and TAFB provided
consensus T3.0/45 kt Dvorak estimates at 00 UTC. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory.

Roslyn is moving west-northwestward at 285/7 kt, steered by a
mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the cyclone. As this
ridge shifts eastward during the next couple of days, the cyclone
will become steered by the flow between the ridge and a deep-layer
trough to the northwest, well offshore of southern California. This
should induce a turn toward the north and north-northeast this
weekend, eventually bringing the center of Roslyn inland along the
coast of west-central Mexico. There is still a large spread in the
track guidance beyond 48 h regarding how sharply the cyclone
recurves and how fast it moves inland. The GFS remains on the right
side of the guidance envelope and brings Roslyn inland early Sunday,
while several other models show a slower and more gradual
recurvature with landfall later in the day. Overall, little change
was made to the NHC track forecast, which still lies slightly east
of the TVCE and HCCA aids.

The cyclone will move over warm sea surface temperatures within a
weak deep-layer shear environment during the next couple of days or
so. This is expected to support strengthening, and Roslyn is
forecast to become a hurricane by late Friday with continued
intensification over the weekend. Given the favorable environmental
conditions, the NHC intensity forecast lies on the high end of the
guidance, generally between the IVCN and HCCA aids. While rapid
intensification is not explicitly forecast, the GFS-based DTOPS
guidance shows a 44 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity
during the next 24 h. Beyond 48 h, the intensity will be dependent
on the cyclone's track and whether it remains far enough offshore to
avoid the negative influences of land. The official forecast shows
Roslyn inland and rapidly weakening by 72 h, with dissipation soon
thereafter over the mountains of western Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes near or
over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday,
accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of mainland Mexico
from Playa Perula northward to San Blas, and additional watches or
warnings will likely be required on Friday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 15.7N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.0N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.7N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 17.9N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 19.5N 106.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 21.3N 106.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 23.4N 105.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 210242
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

...ROSLYN STRENGTHENS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 103.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Pacific coast of Mexico from Playa Perula northward to San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico south of Playa Perula to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico and the Islas Marias should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for
portions of these areas on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 103.6 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward
the northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a
north-northwestward motion on Saturday and a northward motion
Saturday night into Sunday. On the forecast track, Roslyn is
expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico
through Saturday, then approach the west-central coast of Mexico on
Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days or so, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane by late
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area along the coast of mainland Mexico by Saturday evening, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on
Saturday.

RAINFALL: The outer rainbands of Roslyn may produce rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacán and
2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along coastal areas
of Colima and Jalisco. Roslyn is also forecast to bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit including Islas Marias,
and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding
and landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 210242
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
0300 UTC FRI OCT 21 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND THE ISLAS MARIAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 104.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.7N 105.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.9N 106.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.3N 106.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.4N 105.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 103.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 202342
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

...ROSLYN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 103.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico and the Islas Marias should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for
portions of these areas later tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 103.4 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest is expected later tonight and Friday,
followed by a north-northwestward and northward motion on Saturday
and Saturday night. On the forecast track, Roslyn is expected to
move parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday,
then approach the west-central coast of Mexico on Saturday night and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Roslyn is
expected to become a hurricane by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on
Saturday.

RAINFALL: The outer rainbands of Roslyn may produce rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacán and 2
to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along coastal areas of
Colima and Jalisco. Roslyn is also forecast to bring locally heavy
rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit including Islas Marias, and
southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and
landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 202036
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Roslyn has become a little more
organized this afternoon, with the formation of a curved convective
band near the center in the eastern semicircle. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
increased a little since the last advisory, and the initial
intensity is increased to 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS
satellite consensus. It should be noted that Roslyn looks a little
sheared, with the center near the western edge of the convection
and a lot of curved low cloud lines apparent west of the
convection. It is uncertain why the cyclone looks this way since
the analyzed vertical wind shear is less than 10 kt.

The initial motion is now 280/6 kt. A mid- to upper-level ridge is
located over Mexico north and northwest of Roslyn, while a
deep-layer low pressure area is located several hundred miles
southwest of the coast of southern California. The large-scale
models forecast both of these features to move eastward, with Roslyn
expected to recurve to the north and northeast between them. While
the track guidance is in good agreement with this general scenario,
there is a significant spread in the guidance regarding how far west
the cyclone will move before recurvature. The GFS is on the right
side of the envelope, bringing the center near Cabo Corrientes in
roughly 60 h and inland over mainland Mexico thereafter. On the
other hand, the ECMWF and UKMET are about 150 n mi west of the GFS
at that time, keeping the center farther offshore and showing a
more northerly landfall point in mainland Mexico. Overall, the
guidance envelope has shifted a little to the west since the last
advisory. The new forecast track is also shifted west of the
previous track, but it lies to the east of the consensus models out
of deference to the previous forecast and the GFS.

Roslyn remains over warm sea surface temperatures in a moist,
light-shear environment. These conditions are likely to persist
for the next 60-72 h, and they should allow Roslyn to steadily
intensify. After that time, the intensity forecast becomes more
uncertain due to a forecast increase in shear, the possibility of
dry air entrainment, and the uncertainty of how much land
interaction will occur. The new intensity forecast is again
similar to the previous forecast and calls for a peak intensity of
85 kt before landfall in mainland Mexico. After landfall, rapid
weakening is expected, with the cyclone dissipating over the
mountains of Mexico between 96-120 h.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes near
or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday,
accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge.
Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
should closely monitor the progress of this system. A tropical
storm watch has been issued for part of this area, and additional
hurricane or tropical storm watches could be required tonight or
on Friday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 15.5N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.8N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.3N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 17.2N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 18.5N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 21.8N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 25.0N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 202035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

...ROSLYN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 103.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Pacific coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern and
west-central Mexico and the Islas Marias should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 103.0 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and Friday,
followed by a northward motion by Saturday night. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to move parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico through Saturday and then pass near or over the
west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on
Saturday.

RAINFALL: The outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Roslyn may produce
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero and
Michoacán and 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches along
coastal areas of Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall could lead to
flash flooding as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged
terrain.

Roslyn is then forecast to turn north and northeast this weekend
and may bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit
including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall
could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico by Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 202035
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
2100 UTC THU OCT 20 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE ISLAS MARIAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.8N 103.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 104.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.2N 105.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 106.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 103.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 201449
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

Convection associated with the cyclone has become a bit better
organized since the last advisory, with a strong cluster having
developed near the center. Various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates are now near 35 kt, and based on this
the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Roslyn with an initial
intensity of 35 kt. Although the system has strengthened, recent
microwave and conventional satellite imagery suggests that multiple
low-level swirls are present near the center, indicating that the
inner core has not yet tightened up.

The initial motion is now 275/5 kt along the southern edge of a
mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the storm. In
addition, a deep-layer low pressure area is currently located
southwest of California, and west of the ridge. These features are
forecast to move slowly eastward during the next few days, with the
deep-layer steering flow near Roslyn changing from easterly to
southeasterly to southerly and eventually to southwesterly. This
evolution should cause the storm to recurve between the ridge and
the low and make landfall in western Mexico. The track guidance is
generally in good agreement with this scenario. However, there is
some spread regarding how quickly Roslyn will recurve. The GFS is
on the right side of the guidance envelope with the center passing
near Cabo Corrientes, while the UKMET and ECMWF are farther west.
The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast and
calls for the center to pass just west of Cabo Corrientes in about
72 h, followed by landfall in mainland Mexico before 96 h. The new
forecast track is near or a little to the east of the consensus
models.

Roslyn is currently over warm sea surface temperatures in a moist
environment with light vertical wind shear. These conditions are
likely to persist for the next 72 h or so, and they should allow
Roslyn to steadily intensify. After 72 h, the intensity forecast
becomes more uncertain due to a forecast increase in shear, the
possibility of dry air entrainment, and the possibility of land
interaction. The new NHC forecast is generally similar to the
previous forecast, although it has a slightly lower peak intensity
before landfall in mainland Mexico due to a downward trend in the
guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, with the
cyclone dissipating over the mountains of Mexico between 96-120 h.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes near
or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday,
accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge.
Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
should closely monitor the progress of this system, and hurricane
or tropical storm watches could be required for portions of this
coastline later today.

2. Heavy rainfall from Roslyn could lead to flash flooding and
possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal
southwestern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 15.2N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 16.3N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 17.2N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 18.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 20.3N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 24.0N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 201448
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Roslyn Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 102.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. Watches will likely be
required for portions of the coast later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest
and northwest is expected tonight and Friday, followed by a
northward motion by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
system is expected to move parallel to the southwestern coast of
Mexico through Saturday and then pass near or over the west-central
coast of Mexico Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Roslyn is expected to become a hurricane by late
Friday or Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Roslyn outer rainbands may produce
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches along coastal areas of Guerrero
and Michoacán and 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches
along coastal areas of Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall could
lead to flash flooding as well as possible landslides in areas of
rugged terrain.

Roslyn is then forecast to turn north and northeast this weekend
and may bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Nayarit
including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This rainfall
could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico by Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 201448
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
1500 UTC THU OCT 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 102.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.7N 103.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.3N 104.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.2N 105.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.6N 106.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.3N 105.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.0N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 102.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 200842
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

The circulation associated with the cyclone does not appear to have
tightened up yet, and the center is estimated to be located between
two primary clusters of deep convection. Dvorak classifications
are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and the objective
ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS is just below tropical storm intensity.
Therefore, the system remains a depression with maximum winds
estimated to be 30 kt.

TAFB and SAB center fixes suggest the depression isn't moving very
fast. The initial motion is westward, or 275/3 kt, with the system
just beginning to move along the southern edge of a mid-tropospheric
high centered near the mouth of the Gulf of California. This high
is expected to slide eastward across Mexico during the next 3 days,
while a deep-layer area of low pressure moves very little well to
the west of the Baja California peninsula. The cyclone should
slowly recurve around the western periphery of the high, eventually
moving northward near the west-central coast of Mexico by Saturday
night and then accelerating north-northeastward over Mexico on
Sunday. There is a typical amount of spread among the track models
for this forecast, with most of the discrepancies related to how
wide and fast a turn the cyclone makes while recurving around the
high. The NHC official forecast favors a more intense cyclone that
makes a tighter, faster turn, and it lies closest to the solutions
of the GFS, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA consensus aid. This forecast
essentially lies on top of the previous NHC prediction.

An environment of negligible deep-layer shear, very warm ocean
temperatures, and sufficient atmospheric moisture should support
steady strengthening in the coming days. The cyclone's peak
intensity will likely be dictated by exactly how long the system
will be over water before reaching land, and it could also be
modulated by some increase in shear in about 3 days. For
continuity's sake, the NHC intensity forecast is mostly unchanged
from the previous prediction, and it most closely follows the HCCA
intensity solution, which is near the upper end of the guidance
envelope. After the system moves inland, rapid weakening is
expected, and the low-level circulation is forecast to dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by early Monday. Global
model fields indicate that the mid-level remnants will continue
northeastward across northern Mexico on Monday.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes
near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and
Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous
storm surge. Interests along the coast of southwestern and
west-central Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this
system, and hurricane or tropical storm watches could be required
for portions of this coastline later today.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 15.1N 101.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.3N 102.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 15.6N 103.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 16.1N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 16.8N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 19.4N 106.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 23.4N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200841
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2022

...DEPRESSION CRAWLING WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 101.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be
required for portions of the coast later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 101.5
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected Friday and
Friday night, followed by a northward motion by Saturday night. On
the forecast track, the system is expected to move parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday and then pass near or
over the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later today and then become
a hurricane by late Friday or Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen-E's outer rainbands may
produce heavy rainfall of 1 to 4 inches along coastal areas of
Guerrero and Michoacan. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

The system is then forecast to turn north and northeast this weekend
and may bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Jalisco,
Nayarit including Islas Marias, and southeastern Sinaloa. This
rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of
rugged terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the
coast of west-central Mexico by Friday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 200841
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
0900 UTC THU OCT 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.3N 102.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 103.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.1N 104.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.8N 105.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.4N 106.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 23.4N 104.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 101.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 200240
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022

The satellite presentation of the low pressure system that the NHC
has been monitoring for the past several days has improved today,
and earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the circulation
was becoming better defined. Since then, deep convection has
significantly increased near the low-level center, with signs of
curved banding over the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation. Based on these developments, the system now meets the
criteria of a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated
on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The initial intensity is set at
30 kt based on a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak estimate from TAFB at 00 UTC.

The center position is somewhat uncertain given that the system just
formed, and the estimated initial motion is west-northwestward at
285/4 kt. This general motion should continue for the next couple of
days as the cyclone moves roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico. The mid-level steering ridge over northern
Mexico is forecast to slide eastward later this week, while a
deep-layer trough amplifies over the eastern Pacific and moves
slowly toward the Baja California peninsula. The flow between these
two features should induce a turn toward the north or
north-northeast over the weekend, bringing the center of the system
toward the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico on Sunday.
Overall, the track guidance is in very good agreement through 72 h,
with larger spread noted by 96 h while the system turns toward the
coast of Mexico. The NHC track forecast lies near the center of the
guidance envelope, generally remaining close to the TVCE aid.

The forecast track brings the system over some of the warmest SSTs
in the eastern Pacific basin during the next couple of days. Also,
the system will be moving within a moist and unstable environment,
and the deep-layer shear is forecast to be less than 10 kt during
this time. Given these favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions,
the NHC forecast calls for steady to near rapid strengthening during
the next few days. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by
late Friday, with additional strengthening expected thereafter while
it approaches the coast. The NHC forecast generally follows the IVCN
multi-model consensus aid and lies just below HCCA. After moving
inland by 96 h, interaction with the topography of western Mexico
should cause quick weakening and dissipation of the low-level
circulation by 120 h.

Interests along the coasts of southwestern and west-central Mexico
should closely monitor the progress of this system, as watches could
be required for portions of the coastline later tomorrow or tomorrow
night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 15.2N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 15.3N 102.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 15.6N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 16.6N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 17.6N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 18.9N 106.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 22.5N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200239
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 101.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coasts of southwestern and west-central Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 101.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next couple of days. A gradual turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest is forecast on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is expected to move roughly parallel to the
coast of southwestern Mexico through Friday night, then pass near
the coasts of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday and
Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm tomorrow and a hurricane by
late Friday or Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 200239
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192022
0300 UTC THU OCT 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.3N 102.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.6N 103.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.6N 105.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.6N 105.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.9N 106.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.5N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>