Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICOLE-22
in United States, Bahamas

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 120411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.11.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 39.1N 79.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.11.2022 0 39.1N 79.9W 997 25
1200UTC 12.11.2022 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 120411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.11.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 39.1N 79.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.11.2022 39.1N 79.9W MODERATE
12UTC 12.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120411

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 111612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.11.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.11.2022 0 32.8N 84.4W 999 24
0000UTC 12.11.2022 12 38.9N 80.4W 996 20
1200UTC 12.11.2022 24 45.1N 71.9W 990 36
0000UTC 13.11.2022 36 47.1N 60.8W 989 41
1200UTC 13.11.2022 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111612

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 111612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.11.2022

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.11.2022 32.8N 84.4W MODERATE
00UTC 12.11.2022 38.9N 80.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2022 45.1N 71.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.11.2022 47.1N 60.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111612

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 111442
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

Satellite imagery, NWS radar data, and surface observations across
the southeastern U.S. indicate that Nicole still has a well-enough
defined circulation and sufficient convective organization to be
classified as a tropical depression. Surface observations reveal
that its central pressure has risen to near 1001 mb while its
strongest sustained winds are near 25 kt. Those winds are occuring
just offshore of Georgia and South Carolina. Although Nicole's winds
are decreasing, the threat of heavy rain which could lead to flash
flooding across portions of the Appalachians will continue today.
There is also a threat of tornadoes today, especially well to the
northeast of Nicole's center in eastern North Carolina and Virginia.

The depression accelerated northward earlier this morning and now
appears to be turning north-northeastward as previously forecast.
The surface circulation of Nicole will likely become poorly defined
and the system will become post-tropical as it continues to
accelerate north-northeastward this afternoon and tonight.

Since Nicole is a tropical depression with no tropical wind or storm
surge watches or warnings, this will be the last advisory issued by
the National Hurricane Center. Future advisories will be issued by
the Weather Prediction Center. Products from the Weather Prediction
Center will continue to populate on the NHC website as long as
Nicole remains a flooding threat to the U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing.
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be possible on
Friday across the southern and central Appalachians, particularly in
the Blue Ridge Mountains. Heavy rain and isolated flooding impacts
will extend north through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York and northern New England by Friday night into
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 34.2N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 37.7N 81.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 111441
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 84.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicole
was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 84.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37
km/h). A faster north-northeast motion is expected this afternoon.
On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will continue to move
over the southern Appalachians during the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Nicole is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today,
and the cyclone is likely to dissipate tonight. However, Nicole's
remnants will continue to move northeastward across the eastern
United States through Saturday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

Portions of the Southeast, southern and central Appalachians,
central and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to
4 inches with local maxima of 6 to 8 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 3 inches.

Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing.
Across portions of the Appalachians, upper Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and New England through Saturday, limited flooding
impacts will be possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today over parts of North
Carolina, and southern and eastern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM EST, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32
KWNH, and on the web at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 111440
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
1500 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 84.3W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 420SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 84.3W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 84.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.7N 81.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 84.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2...WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND
HURRICANES.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 110841
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

...NICOLE BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 84.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicole
was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 84.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h). An acceleration toward the north and north-northeast is
expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will
move across central and northern Georgia this morning and over the
western Carolinas later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Nicole is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today,
then dissipate tonight or early Saturday as it merges with a frontal
system over the eastern United States.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches)
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Surge related flooding will continue to recede along
portions of Georgia's southern coast and Florida's Gulf and east
coasts, including the St. Johns River. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

Portions of the Southeast, southern and central Appalachians,
central and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to
4 inches with local maxima of 6 to 8 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 3 inches.

Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing.
Limited flooding impacts will be possible across portions of the
Appalachians, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England
through Saturday.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible early this morning over
eastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina. The threat will
shift northward across central and eastern North Carolina into
southern and eastern Virginia today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 110840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
0900 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 84.5W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..500NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 84.5W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 84.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.9N 83.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 84.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 110245
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Surface synoptic observations and Doppler radar velocities indicate
that Nicole has weakened to a tropical depression inland near the
Florida/Georgia border. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to
be 30 kt, and the surface data indicate that the minimum pressure
has risen to 992 mb. Although Nicole has weakened, it is still a
significant rainfall producer.

Nicole continues moving northwestward, or at about 320/13 kt. The
cyclone is moving on the western side of a mid-level ridge. During
the next day or so, the system should accelerate
north-northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of a large
trough until it dissipates.

Continued gradual weakening will occur while Nicole moves farther
inland during the next day or so. By Friday night, the system is
expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large
mid-latitude weather system over the eastern United States.


Key Messages:

1. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight across the Florida
Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions
of the Florida Peninsula, with renewed river flooding on the St.
Johns River ongoing. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the central Appalachians, particularly in the Blue Ridge Mountains,
and extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central
Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 30.7N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 33.0N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 37.0N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 110244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nicole Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES BRINGING HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicole
was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h),
and a turn toward the north is forecast overnight. Nicole is
expected to accelerate north-northeastward on Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nicole will move into southwestern
Georgia later tonight and Friday, and across the western
Carolinas later on Friday,

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next day or so, and Nicole is expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone on Friday. The system is expected to dissipate as it
merges with a frontal boundary over the eastern United States by
Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to the Savannah River,
including the St. Johns River...1 to 3 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

* Eastern Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend into the
Southeast, southern and central Appalachians, central and eastern
portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local
maxima of 6 to 8 inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 3 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across
portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts will be
possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across eastern
South Carolina and southern North Carolina. The threat will shift
northward across central and eastern North Carolina into southern
and eastern Virginia during the day on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 110243
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
0300 UTC FRI NOV 11 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 84.3W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 150SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 84.3W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 83.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.0N 81.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 84.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 102349
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 83.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Flagler/Volusia county line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Aripeka to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 83.8 West. Nicole is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion should continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the
north later tonight. Nicole is expected to accelerate
north-northeastward on Friday. On the forecast track, the center
of Nicole will move over northern Florida for the next few hours
and over Georgia later tonight and Friday,and into western South
Carolina later on Friday,

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are mainly occurring over the Gulf
of Mexico to the south and southwest of the center. Nicole is
forecast to weaken to a depression tonight, and then it is expected
to dissipate as it merges with a frontal boundary over the
Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. Wind gusts to near tropical storm force have
been reported in the Tallahassee, Florida area.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida and Georgia, and along the Gulf coast of
Florida in the warning areas for the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
including the St. Johns River...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the Savannah River...1 to 3 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida
including Biscayne Bay...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

* Northwest Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula: An inch or less of
additional rainfall.
* Eastern Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend into the
Southeast, southern and central Appalachians, eastern and central
portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local
maxima of 6 to 8 inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across
portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts will be
possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts
of southeastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeastern
North Carolina. The threat will spread northward into Virginia and
more of North Carolina during the day on Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 102047
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

The center of Nicole briefly emerged over water north of Tampa
around 18Z and is now straddling the coast of the Florida Big Bend
region northwest of Cedar Key. An earlier scatterometer overpass
showed winds of about 40 kt west of the center over the Gulf of
Mexico, and this is the main basis for the initial intensity of
40 kt. Surface observations indicate that the central pressure has
risen to near 990 mb. In addition to weakening, the 34-kt
wind radii associated with the storm have decreased, particularly
in the northeastern quadrant. This has resulted in significant
changes to the warnings with this advisory.

The initial motion is now 315/13, and this motion is expected to
persist through this evening with the center moving into the eastern
Florida Panhandle. Subsequently, a low- to mid-level ridge to the
northeast of Nicole should move farther eastward as a deep-layer
mid-latitude trough and associated surface cold front are
approaching from the west. This evolution should cause the storm to
turn northward tonight over Georgia, followed by a faster motion
toward the north-northeast on Friday. The new forecast track has
only minor adjustments from the previous track.

Little change in strength is expected until the center moves
farther inland tonight. When that happens, Nicole should weaken to
a depression over Georgia. On Friday and Friday night, the system
is expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large
mid-latitude weather system.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida and Georgia this evening. Tropical storm
conditions will spread northward along the west coast of Florida to
the coast of the Florida Panhandle through tonight.

2. A storm surge warning is in effect for portions of the
northeastern coast of Florida, the southern Georgia coast, and the
Florida Big Bend. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall this evening across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding
on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and
extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 29.4N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...ALONG THE COAST
12H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1800Z 34.9N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 102046
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
2100 UTC THU NOV 10 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST SOUTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE...AND ALONG THE
COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND...GEORGIA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF ARIPEKA.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST SOUTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA AND FROM THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* ARIPEKA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 83.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 60SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 83.2W AT 10/2100Z...ALONG COAST
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 82.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.9N 82.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 102046
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...CENTER OF NICOLE STRADDLING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION...
...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 83.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the Florida
east coast south of the Flagler/Volusia county line, and along the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina north of Altamaha Sound,
Georgia.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida west coast has been
discontinued south of Aripeka.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Florida east
coast south of the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the South Santee
River South Carolina to the Altamaha Sound Georgia and from the
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Flagler/Volusia county line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Aripeka to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 83.2 West. Nicole is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion should continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the
north tonight. Nicole is expected to accelerate north-northeastward
on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move
along the coast of the Florida Big Bend region for the next several
hours before moving across the eastern Florida Panhandle. After
that, Nicole should move northward over Georgia later tonight, and
then move through the southeastern United States on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are mainly occurring over the Gulf of Mexico to
the west of the center. Little change in strength is expected this
evening while the center moves along the coast of the Florida Big
Bend. Nicole is expected to weaken to a depression over Georgia
tonight, and then it is expected to dissipate as it merges with a
frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A WeatherSTEM station on the campus of the
University of Florida in Gainesville recently reported a wind gust
of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
The NOAA National Ocean Service Station station at Cedar Key,
Florida, recently reported a pressure of 989.5 mb (29.22 inches) as
the center passed nearby.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida and Georgia in the warning areas this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur within the warning
area along the west coast of Florida through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
including the St. Johns River...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the Savannah River...1 to 3 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida
including Biscayne Bay...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

* Northwest Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula: An inch or less of
additional rainfall.
* Eastern Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend into the
Southeast, southern and central Appalachians, eastern and central
portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local
maxima of 6 to 8 inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across
portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts will be
possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight over parts of southeastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina,
and southeastern North Carolina. The threat will spread northward
into Virginia and more of North Carolina during the day on Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 101748 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 14A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
100 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Correct directions from Tallahassee and Tampa in the summary table

...CENTER OF NICOLE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 82.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida west coast has been
discontinued south of the middle of Longboat Key.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
* The middle of Longboat Key to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 82.6 West. Nicole is
now moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest is expected later this afternoon,
followed by a turn toward the north tonight. Nicole is expected to
accelerate north-northeastward on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nicole will move over the far northeastern Gulf of
Mexico in the next several hours and then move inland over the
eastern Florida Panhandle tonight. Nicole should move northward
into Georgia later tonight, and then move through the southeastern
United States on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (70 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected while
Nicole is over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and evening.
Nicole is expected to weaken to a depression over Georgia tonight,
and then it is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the
Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night.

Nicole remains a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center, especially
to the northeast. During the past few hours, there have been
numerous reports of wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph (70 to 90 km/h)
across the eastern and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula.

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observation is
988 mb (29.18 inches). Brooksville, Florida, recently reported a
pressure of 989.2 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning
areas today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur within the warning area along the west coast of Florida
through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* Sebastian Inlet to Hallandale Beach Florida...1 to 3 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach Florida including
Biscayne Bay...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

* Northwest Bahamas into portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5
inches with local maxima of 8 inches.
* Southeast into the central Appalachians and eastern portions of
Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6
inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across
portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England Thursday through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts
will be possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon over parts
of coastal east-central and northeastern Florida. The tornado
threat will spread northward across parts of southeastern Georgia
and the Carolinas this afternoon through Friday morning.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 101742
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
100 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...CENTER OF NICOLE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 82.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida west coast has been
discontinued south of the middle of Longboat Key.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
* The middle of Longboat Key to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 82.6 West. Nicole is
now moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest is expected later this afternoon,
followed by a turn toward the north tonight. Nicole is expected to
accelerate north-northeastward on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nicole will move over the far northeastern Gulf of
Mexico in the next several hours and then move inland over the
eastern Florida Panhandle tonight. Nicole should move northward
into Georgia later tonight, and then move through the southeastern
United States on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (70 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected while
Nicole is over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and evening.
Nicole is expected to weaken to a depression over Georgia tonight,
and then it is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the
Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night.

Nicole remains a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center, especially
to the northeast. During the past few hours, there have been
numerous reports of wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph (70 to 90 km/h)
across the eastern and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula.

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observation is
988 mb (29.18 inches). Brooksville, Florida, recently reported a
pressure of 989.2 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning
areas today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur within the warning area along the west coast of Florida
through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* Sebastian Inlet to Hallandale Beach Florida...1 to 3 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach Florida including
Biscayne Bay...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

* Northwest Bahamas into portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5
inches with local maxima of 8 inches.
* Southeast into the central Appalachians and eastern portions of
Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6
inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across
portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England Thursday through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts
will be possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon over parts
of coastal east-central and northeastern Florida. The tornado
threat will spread northward across parts of southeastern Georgia
and the Carolinas this afternoon through Friday morning.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 101611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.11.2022

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 81.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.11.2022 28.0N 81.6W MODERATE
00UTC 11.11.2022 30.0N 83.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.11.2022 32.5N 84.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.11.2022 38.8N 80.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2022 43.8N 72.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.11.2022 46.7N 60.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 35.0N 76.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.11.2022 37.0N 72.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101611

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 101452
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

The center of Nicole is currently over west central Florida to the
northeast of Tampa. While the cyclone remains well organized in
satellite imagery, surface observation and Doppler radar data
indicate that the maximum winds have decreased to near 45 kt, and
that the central pressure has risen to near 985 mb.

The initial motion is 295/14 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
northeast of Nicole is moving eastward as a deep-layer mid-latitude
trough and associated surface cold front are approaching from the
west. This evolution should cause Nicole to turn northwestward
today, with the center moving just offshore of the coast of the
Florida Big Bend. The storm should turn northward tonight and move
over the southeastern United States. On Friday, Nicole or its
remnants should accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of
the trough. The new forecast track is similar to, but just a little
west of the previous track, and it lies close to the various
consensus models.

Continued weakening is expected this morning while the center
remains over land. While the center is forecast to briefly emerge
over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, it is not expected to be
over water long enough for significant re-intensification. After
landfall in the Florida Panhandle, Nicole should weaken to a
depression by 24 h. Subsequently, the cyclone will become
post-tropical and be absorbed by the large mid-latitude weather
system.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas today.
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the west
coast of Florida to the coast of the Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected along portions of the
east-central and northeastern coast of Florida, portions of coastal
Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the
Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today across the Florida
Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions
of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding on the
St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding
will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the central
Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending
northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, into
western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 28.2N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0000Z 29.9N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 11/1200Z 32.9N 83.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z 37.3N 80.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 101452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 82.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the Florida
west coast south of Englewood, and along the Florida east coast
south of Sebastian Inlet. The Tropical Storm Warning has also been
discontinued for Lake Okeechobee.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Florida east
coast south of Sebastian Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 82.2 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected later today,
followed by a turn toward the north tonight. Nicole is expected to
accelerate north-northeastward on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nicole will continue to move across the west central
Florida peninsula this morning and emerge over the far northeastern
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The center should then move across
the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight, and then move through
the southeastern United States on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected this morning
while the center is over land. Little change in strength is
expected while Nicole is over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon
and evening. Nicole is expected to weaken to a depression over
Georgia tonight, and then it is expected to merge with a frontal
boundary over the Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night.

Nicole remains a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center, especially
to the northeast. A short time ago, the NOAA Coastal Marine
Automated Station at Saint Augustine, Florida, reported 10-minute
average winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 mph
(113 km/h). The NOAA National Ocean Service station at Clearwater
Beach, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 51 mph
(82 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (95 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observation is
985 mb (29.09 inches). Winter Haven, Florida, recently reported a
pressure of 985.4 mb (29.10 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning
areas today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur within the warning area along the west coast of Florida
through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* Sebastian Inlet to Hallandale Beach Florida...1 to 3 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach Florida including
Biscayne Bay...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

* Northwest Bahamas into portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5
inches with local maxima of 8 inches.
* Southeast into the central Appalachians and eastern portions of
Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6
inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across
portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England Thursday through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts
will be possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning over parts of
coastal east-central and northeastern Florida. The tornado threat
will spread northward across parts of southeastern Georgia and the
Carolinas later today through Friday morning.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 101451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
1500 UTC THU NOV 10 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 82.2W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......300NE 90SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 150SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 82.2W AT 10/1500Z...INLAND
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 81.6W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.9N 83.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...240NE 60SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.9N 83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.3N 80.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 82.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 101148
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 81.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Florida
east coast south of Jupiter.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located inland over central Florida near latitude 28.1 North,
longitude 81.6 West. Nicole is moving toward the west-northwest
near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest is expected later today and tonight, followed by an
acceleration toward the north and north-northeast on Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nicole will move across central
Florida this morning, possibly emerge over the far northeastern Gulf
of Mexico this afternoon, and then move across the Florida Panhandle
and Georgia tonight and on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while Nicole
moves over land during the next day or two, and the storm is likely
to become a tropical depression over Georgia tonight or early
Friday. Nicole is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over
the Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night.

Nicole remains a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 450 miles (720 km) from the center, especially
to the north. Daytona Beach, Florida, recently reported sustained
winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning
areas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur within
the warning area along the west coast of Florida through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* Jupiter Inlet to Hallandale Beach Florida ...1 to 3 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

* Northwest Bahamas into portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5
inches with local maxima of 8 inches.
* Southeast into the central Appalachians and eastern portions of
Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6
inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across
portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England today through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts
will be possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning over parts of
coastal east-central and northeastern Florida. The tornado threat
will spread northward across parts of southeastern Georgia and the
Carolinas later today through Friday morning.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 100857
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Nicole's center made landfall around 3 AM EST (0800 UTC) in the
vicinity of Vero Beach, Florida. Now that the center is inland over
Florida, it is assumed that weakening has begun, and Nicole is being
designated as a tropical storm with maximum winds of 60 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. Mid-level
high pressure is sliding eastward off the North Carolina/Virginia
coast, with a large deep-layer trough moving eastward from the
Rocky Mountains. This pattern is expected to cause Nicole to turn
northwestward later today and then accelerate toward the
north-northeast over the southeastern U.S. on Friday. There has
been no appreciable change in the track guidance on this cycle, and
the new NHC track forecast essentially lies on top of the previous
prediction.

Weakening is expected to continue while Nicole's center moves
across central Florida during the morning hours. Although the
center may emerge over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico
early this afternoon, it won't be over water long enough to aid in
any re-intensification. Continued weakening is forecast tonight
and on Friday while Nicole moves across the southeastern United
States. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the
solutions from Decay-SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State
Superensemble. Nicole is forecast to merge with another
extratropical system over the Mid-Atlantic states by 48 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas today.
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the west
coast of Florida to the coast of the Florida Panhandle through
tonight.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected along portions of the
east-central and northeastern coast of Florida, portions of coastal
Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the
Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will continue to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today across the Florida
Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding
on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and
extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 27.8N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
24H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 34.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 100857
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE NOW A TROPICAL STORM, CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 80.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM NW OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Boca Raton to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The
Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Raton to Hallandale Beach
has been discontinued, and the Hurricane Watch has been
discontinued for Lake Okeechobee.

The Storm Surge Warning from North Palm Beach to Jupiter Inlet has
been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch south of North Palm Beach
to Hallandale Beach has been discontinued.

All warnings have been discontinued for the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located inland over east-central Florida near latitude 27.8 North,
longitude 80.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the west-northwest
near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest is expected later today and tonight, followed by an
acceleration toward the north and north-northeast on Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move across central
Florida this morning, possibly emerge over the far northeastern
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and then moving across the Florida
Panhandle and Georgia tonight and on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while
Nicole moves over land during the next day or two, and the storm is
likely to become a tropical depression over Georgia tonight or
early Friday. Nicole is expected to merge with a frontal boundary
over the Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night.

Nicole remains a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 450 miles (720 km) from the center,
especially to the north. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a
gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) were recently reported at Patrick Air
Force Base, Florida. Winds are increasing near the west coast of
Florida. A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph
(72 km/h) were recently reported at Clearwater Beach.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning
areas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur within
the warning area along the west coast of Florida through tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* Jupiter Inlet to Hallandale Beach Florida ...1 to 3 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

* Northwest Bahamas into portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5
inches with local maxima of 8 inches.
* Southeast into the central Appalachians and eastern portions of
Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6
inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across
portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New
England today through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts
will be possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with
the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning over parts of
coastal east-central and northeastern Florida. The tornado threat
will spread northward across parts of southeastern Georgia and the
Carolinas later today through Friday morning.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Bucci/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 100856
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
0900 UTC THU NOV 10 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BOCA RATON TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY
LINE FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BOCA RATON TO HALLANDALE BEACH
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING FROM NORTH PALM BEACH TO JUPITER INLET HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH
TO HALLANDALE BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA RATON FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 80.7W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......390NE 90SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 80.7W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 79.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.9N 82.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.7N 82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 80.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 100800
TCUAT2

Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
300 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA JUST SOUTH
OF VERO BEACH...

Radar imagery from Miami and Melbourne shows the center of Nicole
has made landfall on the east coast of the Florida peninsula on
North Hutchinson Island just south of Vero Beach. The maximum
sustained winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h), and the
minimum central pressure is estimated to be 981 mb (28.97 inches).

This will be the last hourly update given the degraded radar
structure of Nicole.

SUMMARY OF 300 AM EST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 80.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 100726 CCB
TCUAT2

Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
200 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Removed water level observation

...2 AM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY
RAINS CONTINUE AS NICOLE NEARS THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

NOAA buoy 41009, located about 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h)
and a wind gust to 65 mph (104 km/h). A weather station at
Patrick Air Force Base recently reported a sustained wind of 53
mph (85 km/h) with a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 80.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 100659
TCUAT2

Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
200 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...2 AM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE AS NICOLE NEARS THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

NOAA buoy 41009, located about 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and
a wind gust to 65 mph (104 km/h). A weather station at Patrick Air
Force Base recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h)
with a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).

A NOAA tide gauge at Fernandina Beach, Florida observed a water
level of 4.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 80.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 100556
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
100 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...NICOLE LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 79.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 79.9 West. Nicole is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
north and north-northeast on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nicole will move onshore the east coast of Florida within
the hurricane warning area within the next couple of hours.
Nicole's center is then expected to move across central and northern
Florida into southern Georgia today and tonight, and into the
Carolinas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected until Nicole makes
landfall along the Florida east coast. Nicole is expected to weaken
while moving across Florida and the southeastern United States
today through Friday, and it is likely to become a post-tropical
cyclone by Friday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485
miles (780 km), especially to the north of the center. NOAA buoy
41009, located about 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida,
recently reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) and a wind
gust to 67 mph (108 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the northwestern Bahamas for the next several hours. Hurricane
conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida
during the next few hours, and are possible over Lake Okeechobee
this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue along
portions of the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina
in the warning areas today. Tropical storm conditions will begin
soon within the warning area along the west coast of Florida
and will continue through this evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across
portions of the Southeast, eastern Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and
New England today through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts
will be possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible through early this
morning across east-central to northeast Florida. The tornado
threat will increase and gradually expand north through the day into
southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. Some tornado risk
should continue tonight into early Friday across eastern South
Carolina and southeast North Carolina. Tornadoes will again be
possible during the day Friday centered on central to eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 100456
TCUAT2

Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1200 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...12 AM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE...
...NICOLE BRINGING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

A weather station at Sebastian Inlet, Florida, recently reported a
sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a wind gust of 66 mph (106
km/h). A WeatherSTEM station near Stuart Beach, Florida, recently
reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of
62 mph (100 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 100359
TCUAT2

Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1100 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...11 PM EST POSITION UPDATE OF NICOLE...
...NICOLE BRINGING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

Radar imagery from Miami and Melbourne shows the center of Nicole is
moving away from Grand Bahama Island and toward the east coast of
Florida. Hourly updates of Nicole's position will continue as long
as the center is easily trackable by land-based radar.

A C-MAN station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island recently
reported a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 79.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF SETTLEMENT POINT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 100253
TCDAT2

Hurricane Nicole Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

The hurricane has large intense bands extending quite far from the
center, but does not have a distinct Central Dense Overcast.
Flight-level wind observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum winds are near 65 kt. Dvorak satellite
classifications gave a slightly lower intensity, probably because
the system does not have a classic tropical cyclone appearance at
this time. Nicole has a large eye over 50 nmi in diameter, and a
very large extent of tropical-storm-force winds over its northern
semicircle.

Nicole has made its expected turn toward a west-northwestward
heading and the motion estimate is now 285/11 kt. The system
should turn toward the northwest and north during the next day or
so while moving along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone,
moving over the Florida peninsula and northern Florida. In 36 to
48 hours, Nicole should accelerate north-northeastward to the east
of a longwave mid-tropospheric trough. The official track forecast
is about the same as the previous one and remains close to the
multi-model consensus prediction.

The hurricane has little time to strengthen further before making
landfall in Florida. Weakening will occur while Nicole moves over
Florida, and even though the center may briefly emerge over the
extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico, this is not likely to result in
any significant re-intensification. The system should weaken to a
depression and become a post-tropical cyclone over the southeastern
United States. Nicole should merge with another extratropical low
over the eastern United States after 48 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm
surge are expected to continue over portions of the northwestern
Bahamas tonight, where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida tonight, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will continue along
the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the
warning areas into Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin along the west coast of Florida tonight and Thursday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend
along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the
warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the
Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight into Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river
flooding on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small
stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast
through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue
Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central
Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 27.0N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/0000Z 29.7N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1200Z 32.6N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 100252
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nicole Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...BRINGING STRONG WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 78.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF SETTLEMENT POINT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch from Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 78.9 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn
toward the north and north-northeast on Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Nicole will move onshore the east coast of
Florida within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early
Thursday. Nicole's center is then expected to move across central
and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday
night, and into the Carolinas Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected until Nicole makes
landfall along the Florida east coast. Nicole is expected to
weaken while moving across Florida and the southeastern United
States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely to become a
post-tropical cyclone by Friday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485 miles
(780 km), especially to the north of the center. A WeatherFlow
station at Juno Beach Pier recently reported a wind gust of 55 mph
(89 km/h), and a C-MAN station at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama
Island recently reported a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue across
portions of the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical
storm conditions will continue along portions of the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning areas into
Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along
the west coast of Florida tonight and Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today
into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
northward across portions of the Southeast, eastern Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and New England Thursday through Saturday, where
limited flooding impacts will be possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible overnight into early
Thursday morning across east-central to northeast Florida. The
tornado threat will increase and gradually expand north through the
day into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. Some
tornado risk should continue Thursday night into early Friday across
eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina. Tornadoes
will again be possible during the day Friday centered on central to
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 100251
TCMAT2

HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
0300 UTC THU NOV 10 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM HALLANDALE BEACH TO BOCA RATON IS
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* BOCA RATON TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 78.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......420NE 80SE 60SW 390NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 240SE 180SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 78.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...320NE 90SE 70SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.7N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...240NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.6N 83.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 78.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 092355
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE CONTINUES BRINGING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND STRONG
WINDS TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 78.5 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move near or over
Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and
evening, and move onshore the east coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Nicole's center is then expected to
move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia
Thursday and Thursday night, and into the Carolinas Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected this evening, and
Nicole is forecast to remain a hurricane until it reaches
the east coast of Florida tonight or early Thursday. Nicole is
expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the southeastern
United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely to become a
post-tropical cyclone by Friday afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485
miles (780 km) from the center especially to the north of the
center. A Mesonet observation site on Freeport, Grand Bahama
Island recently reported a wind gust to 61 mph (98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue across
portions of the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical
storm conditions will continue along portions of the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning areas into
Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the west coast of Florida by this evening or tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today
into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward
across portions of the Southeast, eastern Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic,
and New England Thursday into Friday night, where limited flooding
impacts will be possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across eastern
Florida, and Thursday from northeastern Florida into parts of
southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North
Carolina.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 092258 CCA
TCUAT2

Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
600 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

Corrected header

...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ON GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...

Recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Nicole has strengthened in to a hurricane. The maximum winds
are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF FREEPORT
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 092255
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
600 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ON GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...

Recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Nicole has strengthened in to a hurricane. The maximum winds
are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF FREEPORT
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 092052
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

The satellite presentation of Nicole has not changed much since
late this morning. Curved bands of convection wrap around much of
the circulation and there has been a ragged eyewall in radar data
from both the Bahamas and Miami. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 985 mb and
peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt during its final pass
through the center and northwestern portion of the storm as Nicole
made landfall on Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas just
prior to 1700 UTC. Those aircraft data still supported an
intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the initial intensity for
this advisory.

Recent center fixes show that Nicole is moving westward or 270
degrees at 11 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the north of the
cyclone is expected to shift eastward causing Nicole to turn
west-northwestward to northwestward tonight. This motion
should bring the center onshore the coast of southeastern or
east-central Florida overnight, and across the Florida peninsula
Thursday morning. As Nicole passes over north Florida late
Thursday, a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United
States is expected to turn the cyclone or its remnants northward
and then northeastward across inland portions of Georgia and the
Carolinas. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement during
the first 12 to 24 hours, with some increase in spread during the
recurvature portion of the forecast. The updated NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through 24 hours,
but is slightly west thereafter to be close to the latest consensus
aids.

Nicole still has about 12 hours in which to strengthen. Given the
slightly improved inner core structure and the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream that Nicole will be traversing, the forecast still
calls for the cyclone to reach hurricane status before reaching the
east coast of Florida. After landfall, weakening should occur as
the center cross the Florida peninsula. Even if the center briefly
emerges over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
re-intensification is not expected. Nicole is forecast to weaken
further over the southeastern United Sates, and then dissipate along
a frontal zone moving into the eastern United States by 60 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm
surge are expected to continue over portions of the northwestern
Bahamas through this evening, where a Hurricane Warning remains in
effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or
tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions will continue along the east coast of Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas into
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along
the west coast of Florida within the warning area this evening or
tonight.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend
along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the
warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the
Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river rises on
the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge
Mountains, and extending northward through west central Pennsylvania
into western New York by Friday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 26.5N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 27.3N 80.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 28.8N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 31.0N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 34.6N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 092051
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
2100 UTC WED NOV 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* BOCA RATON TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 77.9W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......420NE 80SE 60SW 390NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 240SE 180SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 77.9W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.3N 80.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...360NE 90SE 70SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.8N 82.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 70SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.6N 82.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 77.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 092052
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE BRINGING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS TO
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 77.9 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move near or over
Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and
evening, and move onshore the east coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Nicole's center is then expected
to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia
Thursday and Thursday night, and into the Carolinas Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected this evening, and Nicole is
forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the east coast
of Florida tonight. Nicole is expected to weaken while moving
across Florida and the southeastern United States Thursday through
Friday, and it is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday afternoon.

Nicole is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 485 miles (780 km) from the center especially to the
north of the center. A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing Site at
Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island has
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind
gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). A private weather station on Elbow Cay,
just east of Great Abaco Island, recently reported sustained winds
of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph (103 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue across
portions of the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical
storm conditions will continue along portions of the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning areas into
Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the west coast of Florida by this evening or tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Saturday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today
into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward
across portions of the Southeast, eastern Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic,
and New England Thursday into Friday night, where limited flooding
impacts will be possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across eastern
Florida, and Thursday from northeastern Florida into parts of
southeast Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and southeast North
Carolina.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 091747
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
100 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...CENTER OF NICOLE PASSES OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF MARSH HARBOR GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued south of Hallandale
Beach Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 77.3 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move near or over the
Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon
and move onshore the east coast of Florida within the hurricane
warning area tonight. Nicole's center is then expected to move
across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday
and Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday and Friday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Nicole is forecast
to become a hurricane near the northwestern Bahamas and remain a
hurricane when it reaches the east coast of Florida tonight. Nicole
is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the
southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely
to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night over the
Mid-Atlantic states.

Nicole is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km) especially to the north of
the center. A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just east of
Great Abaco Island, recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph
(69 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (59 km/h). The National Ocean
Service station at the Lake Worth Pier, Florida, recently reported
a wind gust of 59 mph (95 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter data is 985 mb (29.09 inches). The station at Elbow Cay
recently reported a pressure of 985.7 mb (29.11 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the
northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected to
spread westward in areas in hurricane warning area through this
evening. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring along
portions of the east coast of Florida and will spread northward
within the warning area through Georgia and South Carolina this
afternoon and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
hurricane warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday morning.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the west coast of Florida by this evening or tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday night:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today
into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward
across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and New England
Thursday into Friday night, where limited flooding impacts will be
possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through
Thursday across eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia and southern
South Carolina.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 091653
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1155 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT ABACO ISLAND...

Weather radar data from the Bahamas and surface observations
indicate that the center of Nicole has made landfall on Great Abaco
Island in the northwestern Bahamas with an estimated intensity of
70 mph (110 km/h). A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just
east of Great Abaco Island, reported a minimum pressure of 986.8 mb
(29.14 inches) as the center passed near it. Data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the estimated
minimum pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1155 AM EST...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF MARSH HARBOR GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 091455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

Convection has increased in both coverage and organization near the
center of Nicole, with a curved band or partial eyewall now
present near the center. However, this has not yet resulted in any
intensification, with reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicating the maximum winds are near
60 kt and the central pressure near 986 mb.

The aircraft and satellite data, along with radar data from the
Bahamas show that Nicole is now moving westward with an initial
motion of 265/10. This motion should bring the center across the
Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas during the next
several hours. Subsequently, a westward to west-northwestward
motion should bring the center to the southeast or east-central
coast of Florida tonight. After landfall in Florida, a low- to
mid-level ridge over the southeastern U.S. is expected to slide
eastward over the Atlantic, with Nicole turning northwestward and
northward across northern Florida or the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, and then across the southeastern U.S. Finally, a deep-layer
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west should cause Nicole to
accelerate northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states. The new
track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and generally
follows the more southerly and westerly GFS/ECMWF solutions.

While Nicole is over warm sea surface temperatures, a combination
of shear of dry air entrainment is likely to allow only gradual
intensification. However, that gradual intensification should
allow Nicole to become a hurricane later today while crossing the
northwestern Bahamas. Weakening is expected once the center moves
over Florida, and even if the center emerges for a time over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico re-intensification is not expected.
The new intensity forecast calls for Nicole to weaken to a
depression over land by 48 h, and then become extratropical by 60 h
as it merges with a frontal system. The global models are in good
agreement that Nicole should dissipate inside the frontal system by
72 h as another low forms to the north.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or
tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions have begun along the east coast of Florida in the
warning areas and will spread northward to Georgia and South
Carolina later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin along the west coast of Florida within the warning area this
evening or tonight.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend
along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the
warning area should listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large
storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center,
outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the
Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with river rises on
the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through
the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge
Mountains, and extending northward through west central Pennsylvania
into western New York by Friday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 26.5N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 26.7N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 27.6N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 29.5N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 32.4N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0000Z 36.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 091449
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...CENTER OF NICOLE APPROACHING GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...NEW STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Anclote River Florida
to Ochlockonee River Florida.

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for
Bimini to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of the Bahamas
has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Andros Island, New
Providence, and Eleuthera.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move near or over
the Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas today and
move onshore the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning
area tonight. Nicole's center is then expected to move across
central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and
Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday and Friday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Nicole is forecast
to become a hurricane near the northwestern Bahamas and remain a
hurricane when it reaches the east coast of Florida tonight. Nicole
is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the
southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely
to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night over the
Mid-Atlantic states.

Nicole is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km) especially to the north of
the center. A station at Bakers Bay on Great Guana Cay recently
reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 63
mph (101 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the
northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected to
spread westward in areas in hurricane warning area through this
evening. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring along
portions of the east coast of Florida and will spread northward
within the warning area through Georgia and South Carolina today and
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Florida by this evening or tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday night:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today
into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward
across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and New England
Thursday into Friday night, where limited flooding impacts will be
possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through
Thursday across eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia and southern
South Carolina.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 091449
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
1500 UTC WED NOV 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA
TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BIMINI TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* BOCA RATON TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 76.7W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......360NE 90SE 60SW 400NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 180SE 210SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 76.7W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 76.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.7N 78.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...360NE 90SE 70SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.6N 81.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 110SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.5N 83.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.4N 83.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.8N 79.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 76.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 091153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE MOVING TOWARD GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 76.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* Anclote River Florida to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 76.2 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the
northwestern Bahamas this morning, move near or over those islands
by midday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Nicole's center is then expected to
move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia
Thursday and Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday
and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Nicole is forecast
to become a hurricane near the northwestern Bahamas and remain a
hurricane when it reaches the east coast of Florida tonight. Nicole
is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the
southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely
to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night over the
Mid-Atlantic states.

Nicole is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km) especially to the north of
the center. During the past few hours, a National Ocean Service
station at the Lake Worth Pier, Florida, reported sustained winds
of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the
northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected within
the hurricane warning area starting in the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also occurring along portions of the
east coast of Florida and will spread northward within the warning
area through Georgia and South Carolina today and tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida tonight or Thursday morning. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area along the west
coast of Florida by this evening or tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday night:

* Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.
* Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of New York: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula
today into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
northward across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and New
York Thursday into Friday night, where flooding impacts will be
possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through
Thursday across eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and southern
South Carolina.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 090859
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

Nicole's satellite presentation has not changed since last evening.
The associated convection is fairly fragmented, and cloud-top
temperatures are not particularly cold compared to a typical
tropical cyclone (they're only as cold as -50 degrees Celsius near
the center). The initial intensity remains 60 kt based on data
from last evening's reconnaissance mission.

Aircraft fixes and radar data from the Bahamas indicate that Nicole
has continued to move west-southwestward (250/11 kt), even a little
south of the previous NHC track prediction. However, track model
guidance indicates that Nicole should turn westward soon, and its
center is forecast to move across the Abacos and Grand Bahama
Island later today and approach the southeast or east-central coast
of Florida tonight. After 24 hours, high pressure over the
southeastern U.S. is expected to slide eastward over the Atlantic,
and that will cause Nicole to recurve around its western flank,
moving across northern Florida or the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
and then across the southeastern U.S. Nicole is then expected to
accelerate northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states in 60-72
hours ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough and cold front.
Due to Nicole's recent short-term motion, the NHC official forecast
has been nudged southward and westward during the first 48 hours
and lies fairly close to the ECMWF and TVCA multi-model consensus.
It's worth noting that a few models, including the GFS, HWRF, and
HCCA, are a little west of the official forecast over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle.

Nicole will continue to move over warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius
today, although the cyclone will likely also be contending with some
shear and a dry and not particularly unstable environment.
Therefore, only slight additional strengthening is anticipated, and
Nicole could still become a hurricane later today while it moves
across the northwestern Bahamas and reaches the east coast of
Florida. Weakening is expected once the center moves over Florida,
and Nicole is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength by 60
hours once it's over Georgia or South Carolina. Nicole is expected
to merge with a cold front and become extratropical over the
Mid-Atlantic by day 3, although most global models indicate that
feature will dissipate soon thereafter, with a secondary
extratropical low developing farther north over New England or
eastern Canada.

Scatterometer data from last evening indicated that Nicole's
tropical-storm-force wind field continues to expand on its northern
side, and that has been reflected in the new forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or
tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions have begun along the east coast of Florida in the
warning areas and will spread northward to Georgia and South
Carolina later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin along the west coast of Florida within the warning area this
evening or tonight.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the
Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely across
portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed river
rises on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small
stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast
through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue
Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central
Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 26.6N 75.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 26.6N 77.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.1N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1800Z 28.5N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/0600Z 30.7N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1800Z 34.1N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0600Z 38.7N 78.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 090859
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE APPROACHING GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
AND PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 75.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida north of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass. The Tropical Storm
Warning has also been extended northward from Altamaha Sound Georgia
to South Santee River South Carolina.

The Hurricane Watch from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte
Vedra Beach Florida has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* Anclote River Florida to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 75.7 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the
northwestern Bahamas this morning, move near or over those islands
by midday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Nicole's center is then expected to
move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia
Thursday and Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday
and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Nicole is forecast
to become a hurricane near the northwestern Bahamas and remain a
hurricane when it reaches the east coast of Florida tonight. Nicole
is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the
southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely
to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night over the
Mid-Atlantic states.

Nicole is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 460 miles (740 km) especially to the north of the
center. A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph
(81 km/h) were reported on Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas during
the past couple of hours. A sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) was
recently reported at the Dania Pier in southeastern Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the
northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected within
the hurricane warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions
are also occurring along portions of the east coast of Florida and
will spread northward within the warning area through Georgia and
South Carolina today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected
within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday
morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area along the west coast of Florida by this evening or
tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday night:

* Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.
* Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of New York: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. John?--s River, across the Florida Peninsula
today into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
northward across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and New
York Thursday into Friday night, where flooding impacts will be
possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through
Thursday across eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and southern
South Carolina.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 090858
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
0900 UTC WED NOV 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS. THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE
VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* BOCA RATON TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 75.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......360NE 120SE 60SW 400NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 240SE 210SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 75.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 75.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.6N 77.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...360NE 100SE 70SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.1N 80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...330NE 90SE 110SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.5N 82.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 80SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.7N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.1N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 38.7N 78.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...360NE 360SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 75.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 090554
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
100 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 75.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* Anclote River Florida to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 75.4 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west-southwest near 11 mph (18 km/h). A
west-southwestward to westward motion is expected through today. A
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin tonight, followed by
a turn toward the northwest and north on Thursday and Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach
the northwestern Bahamas this morning, move near or over those
islands by this afternoon, and approach the east coast of Florida
within the hurricane warning area tonight or early Thursday.
Nicole's center is then expected to move across central and northern
Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane later today and remain
a hurricane when it reaches the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km)
from the center.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning across the
northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected within
the hurricane warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions
are also beginning along portions of the east coast of Florida, and
hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
tonight or Thursday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area tonight and Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the west
coast of Florida by tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Florida
into parts of eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina beginning
late tonight and continuing through Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 090257
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Nicole's satellite appearance has changed little since this
afternoon. Deep convection is not very strong near the center of
the cyclone at this time, and there appears to be some dry air
intrusions into the circulation as evidenced by water vapor
imagery. Nonetheless, wind and central pressure observations from
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate that the system is
very close to hurricane strength and the current advisory intensity
is set to 60 kt.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving
west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt The track forecast
philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory
package. Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the
south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24
hours. Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then
northward along the western side of the high. In 3-5 days, Nicole
is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United
States, to the east of a large mid-level trough. The track model
guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official
forecast. This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for
the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance
thereafter.

Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius during the next day or so. However, the SHIPS guidance
indicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, with
low-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent,
during the next 24 hours. Nicole is likely to become a hurricane
soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment,
significant strengthening seems unlikely. The official intensity
forecast is near or above the available model guidance, and closely
follows the decay-SHIPS model after landfall. Weakening is expected
after Nicole moves inland over Florida and Georgia and while it
accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States. The
cyclone should complete extratropical transition by 72 hours and
merge with another extratropical low near Atlantic Canada in 120
hours.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River. On Friday and Saturday, flash,
urban and small stream flooding will be possible in the Southeast
through the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 27.1N 74.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.9N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 29.7N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 32.8N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 37.3N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 47.5N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 090256
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE HEADED FOR THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west along the Florida
panhandle from the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* Anclote River Florida to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Additional watches or warnings may be required on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 74.8 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
west-southwestward to westward motion is expected through early
Wednesday. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later
on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on
Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas overnight, move near
or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of
Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night or early
Thursday. Nicole's center is then expected to move across central
and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane later
tonight and remain a hurricane when it reaches the east coast of
Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night or Thursday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early
Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by
Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Florida
into parts of eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina beginning
late Wednesday night and continuing through Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 090256
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
0300 UTC WED NOV 09 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WEST ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN
THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* BOCA RATON TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF FLORIDA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 74.8W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......300NE 240SE 30SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 240SE 210SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 74.8W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 74.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...320NE 140SE 60SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.9N 78.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...360NE 90SE 80SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...270NE 90SE 80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.7N 83.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.8N 83.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.3N 80.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 47.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 74.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 082353
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 74.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 74.3 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
west-southwestward motion is expected through early Wednesday. A
westward to west-northwest motion is forecast to begin later on
Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas
tonight, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach
the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area
Wednesday night or early Thursday. Nicole's center is then expected
to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia
Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or
so, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday when
it is near the northwestern Bahamas, and remain a hurricane when it
reaches the east coast of Florida.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night or Thursday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early
Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by
Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to the Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1
to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Florida
into parts of eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina beginning
late Wednesday night and continuing through Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 082054
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the central convection associated
with Nicole has become better organized this afternoon, with a
curved convective band wrapped about three-quarters of the way
around the center. An earlier scatterometer overpass showed winds
near 45 kt about 60 n mi northwest of the center, and a just
received microwave overpass shows an additional increase in
organization. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 55 kt. Water vapor and air mass imagery shows a large
area of mid- to upper-level dry air over the southern semicircle of
the circulation, and some of this may be entraining into the core at
this time.

Nicole is continuing its anticipated turn with the initial motion
now 260/9. A strong deep-layer ridge over the eastern United
States should steer the storm west-southwestward during the next
24-30 h, with this motion bringing the center near or over the
Northwestern Bahamas. After that time, the ridge is forecast to
shift eastward allowing Nicole to turn westward to
west-northwestward as it approaches the east coast of Florida.
There is some spread in the guidance as to how much of a turn will
occur, with the ECMWF and GFS showing a more westward motion, while
the HWRF and HMON show a more northwestward motion. This part of
the forecast track is along the south edge of the guidance and
agreement with the ECMWF and UKMET. After landfall in Florida,
Nicole should turn generally northwestward, with the center
forecast to pass near or over the west coast of Florida north of
Tampa by about 48 h. This should be followed by a turn toward the
north and northeast through the eastern United States as the cyclone
recurves on the east side of a large baroclinic trough moving
through the central United States. This part of the forecast track
is closer to the various consensus models, and overall the new
forecast track is a little south of the previous track through 60 h
and a little west of the previous track after that time.

Nicole will be traversing relatively warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius and upper-level conditions, while not ideal due to a nearby
upper-level trough, are expected to allow some strengthening before
the cyclone reaches Florida. The new intensity forecast follows the
previous forecast and calls for Nicole to become a hurricane when it
is near the northwest Bahamas and remain a hurricane when it reaches
Florida. This part of the intensity forecast is at the high end of
the intensity guidance. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves
inland over Florida and while it accelerates northeastward over the
southeastern United States. Extratropical transition is expected
to start between 60-72 h and be complete by 96 h, with the storm
likely to maintain gale-force winds after transition. The cyclone
is expected to dissipate as it merges with another mid-latitude low
pressure area by 120 h.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River. On Friday and Saturday, flash,
urban and small stream flooding will be possible in the Southeast
through the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 27.5N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.2N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 28.6N 82.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 31.2N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z 34.7N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 45.0N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 082046
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
2100 UTC TUE NOV 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* BOCA RATON TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF FLORIDA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 73.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 0SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 300SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 73.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 73.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 120SE 60SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...360NE 90SE 80SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N 79.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...340NE 90SE 80SW 290NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.6N 82.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 90SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.2N 83.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.7N 81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 45.0N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 73.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 082047
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE INTENSIFYING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
WEDNESDAY...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 73.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Savannah River to the
South Santee River South Carolina and from the Suwannee River
Florida to the Ochlockonee River Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Altamaha Sound
Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 73.7 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-southwest
motion is expected through early Wednesday. A westward to
west-northwest motion is forecast to begin later on Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on
Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas tonight, move near or
over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of
Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night or early
Thursday. Nicole's center is then expected to move across central
and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane on
Wednesday when it is near the northwestern Bahamas, and remain a
hurricane when it approaches the east coast of Florida.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night or Thursday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early
Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by
Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to the Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1
to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida...1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible from eastern Florida
into parts of eastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina beginning
late Wednesday night and continuing through Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 081840 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 6A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
100 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Corrected typo in the discussion and outlook section

...NICOLE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 73.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River Georgia
* Anclote River Florida to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 73.3 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-southwest
motion is expected through early Wednesday. A west-northwest
motion is forecast to begin on Wednesday night, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach
the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight, move near or over those
islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within
the hurricane warning area Wednesday night. Nicole's center is then
expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern
Georgia Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day
or so, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday
when it is near the northwestern Bahamas, and remain a hurricane
when it approaches the east coast of Florida.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas by
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night
with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early
Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by
Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to the Suwannee River...2 to 4 ft
* Middle of Long Boat Key to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1
to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 7 inches

Southeast Georgia into portions of South Carolina: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 081753
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
100 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 73.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River Georgia
* Anclote River Florida to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 73.3 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-southwest
motion is expected through early Wednesday. A west-northwest
motion is forecast to begin on Wednesday night, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach
the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight, move near or over those
islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within
the hurricane warning area Wednesday night. Nicole's center is then
expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern
Georgia Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day
or so, and Nicole is forecast to a hurricane on Wednesday when it
is near the northwestern Bahamas, and remain a hurricane when it
approaches the east coast of Florida.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas by
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night
with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early
Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by
Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to the Suwannee River...2 to 4 ft
* Middle of Long Boat Key to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1
to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 7 inches

Southeast Georgia into portions of South Carolina: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 081455
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Deep convection has developed and persisted near the center of
Nicole this morning and while there are still some characteristics
of a subtropical cyclone, the smaller radius of maximum winds and
improving inner-core convection suggest it has made the transition
to a tropical cyclone. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft has reported
that the pressure has fallen to around 992 mb, and has found
700-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and believable SFMR winds of
40-42 kt. Based on those data, the initial intensity was raised to
45 kt at 1200 UTC, and is kept there for this advisory.

The anticipated westward turn appears to have occurred, and the
initial motion estimate is 280/8 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the storm
westward to west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours.
This motion will bring the center of Nicole near the northwest
Bahamas on Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to
shift eastward allowing Nicole to turn west-northwestward to
northwestward, as it approaches the east coast of Florida.
By 72 hours, Nicole is forecast to recurve over the southeastern
United States ahead of a mid-latitude trough. Although there is
good agreement on this overall scenario, there is some increased
spread in the track guidance on exactly when Nicole makes the
west-northwestward turn near the east coast of Florida. The
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models are along the southern side
of the guidance envelope, while the regional hurricane models (HWRF
and HMON) are on the northern side. Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

Nicole will be traversing relatively warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees
Celsius and upper-level conditions that are expected to allow for
steady strengthening during the approach to the northwestern
Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. The NHC forecast calls for
Nicole to become a hurricane when it is near the northwest Bahamas
and remain a hurricane when it reaches Florida. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the various intensity consensus
aids. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida
and while it accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United
States. Although the system could still produce
tropical-storm-force winds over the adjacent offshore waters.
Nicole should be extratropical by late Friday, and most of the
global models show the circulation dissipating between days 4 and 5.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to
advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
United States.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely with
possible river rises on the St. Johns River. Flash, urban and small
stream flooding will be possible in Southeast Georgia and portions
of South Carolina Thursday into Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 27.8N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 27.3N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 26.8N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 27.0N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 80.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 30.0N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1200Z 32.7N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 41.7N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 081454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 72.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Boca Raton to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from
the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach. A Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah
River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Altamaha Sound Georgia to
the Savannah River and from Anclote River Florida to Suwannee River
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River Georgia
* Anclote River Florida to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole.
Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 72.7 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west to
west-southwest motion should continue through Wednesday. A
west-northwest motion is forecast to begin on Wednesday night,
followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest
on Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas today
and tonight, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and
approach the east coast of Florida within the hurricane
warning area Wednesday night. Nicole's center is then expected to
move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia
Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
strengthening is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours, and
Nicole is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength by Wednesday
and Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern
Bahamas and approaching the east coast of Florida.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas by
tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the east coast of Florida Wednesday night
with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early
Wednesday within the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florida by
Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to the Suwannee River...2 to 4 ft
* Middle of Long Boat Key to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1
to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 7 inches

Southeast Georgia into portions of South Carolina: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
north farther up the Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 081454
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
1500 UTC TUE NOV 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BOCA RATON TO THE
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND FROM ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* BOCA RATON TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SAVANNAH RIVER GEORGIA
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF FLORIDA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 72.7W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 0SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 330SE 240SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 72.7W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 72.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.3N 74.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 120SE 60SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...360NE 90SE 80SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 78.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...360NE 90SE 80SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.1N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...320NE 90SE 90SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 60SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.7N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 41.7N 73.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 72.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 081152
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 72.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and
along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor
the progress of Nicole. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 72.0 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the west and west-southwest is forecast today and tonight,
and that motion should continue through Wednesday. A turn toward
the northwest and north-northwest is expected Thursday and Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach
the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight, move near or over those
islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida
Wednesday night. Nicole's center is then expected to move across
central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nicole is expected to make a transition to a tropical storm
later today and begin strengthening, and it is forecast to be near
or at hurricane strength by Wednesday and Wednesday night while it
is moving near the northwestern Bahamas and approaching the east
coast of Florida.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the
center.

Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas by
tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area along the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night with
tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along
the west coast of Florida by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 7 inches

Southeast Georgia into portions of South Carolina: 1 to 4 inches.

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north farther up the
Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 080854
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Nicole appears to be beginning its transition to a tropical storm,
with the low-level center now embedded beneath a relatively small
but persistent burst of deep convection. The system still has a
broad cloud and wind field, however, with bands of convection
extending over 500 n mi to the east of the center, and gale-force
winds expanding significantly over the northwestern quadrant. The
initial intensity remains 40 kt based on ship and scatterometer
observations during the past several hours, and an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft which measured a peak 925-mb flight-level
wind of 52 kt. Nicole's center is just north of NOAA buoy 41047,
and that platform indicates that the minimum pressure has fallen to
995 mb.

The NOAA buoy and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Nicole's center
has taken a northward jog since the previous advisory, and the
initial motion remains northwestward, or 310/7 kt. However, a ridge
axis to the north should cause Nicole to turn westward and then
west-southwestward today and tonight, followed by a recurvature
around the western side of an eastward-moving area of high pressure
Wednesday through Friday. Because of the recent short-term motion
which deviated from the previous forecast track, the track guidance
has shifted northward a bit during the next 2-3 days. As a result,
the NHC official track forecast has been nudged northward and is
closest to the GFS, ECWMF, and HCCA solutions, and just a bit south
of the TVCA multi-model consensus.

With Nicole's structure beginning to take on more tropical
characteristics, strengthening is likely to commence later today.
Warm 27-28 degree Celsius waters and a more diffluence upper-level
environment are expected to aid this intensification, and the NHC
intensity forecast continues to show Nicole near or at hurricane
strength as it's moving near the northwestern Bahamas and
approaching the east coast of Florida. This forecast is just above
the highest intensity guidance, with the HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA
aids showing an intensity of 60-65 kt at 48 hours. Weakening is
expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida and accelerates
northeastward over the southeastern United States, although the
system could still produce tropical-storm-force winds over the
adjacent offshore waters. Nicole should be extratropical by day 4
over the Mid-Atlantic U.S., and most of the global models show the
circulation dissipating by day 5, with a separate extratropical low
forming over northern New England or Quebec.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in
Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a storm surge
warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should
listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
U.S.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river
rises on portions of the St. Johns River. Flash, urban and small
stream flooding will be possible in southeast Georgia and portions
of South Carolina Thursday into Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 27.6N 71.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 08/1800Z 27.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.9N 77.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 29.0N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0600Z 30.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z 38.8N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 080854
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...NICOLE FORECAST TO MAKE A TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM AND
BEGIN STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 71.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of
Florida north of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
* North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and
along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor
the progress of Nicole. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 71.6 West. Nicole is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
west and west-southwest is forecast today and tonight, and that
motion should continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest is expected Thursday and Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach
the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight, move near or over those
islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida
Wednesday night. Nicole's center is then expected to move across
central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Nicole is expected to make a transition to a tropical storm
later today and begin strengthening, and it is forecast to be near
or at hurricane strength by Wednesday and Wednesday night while it
is moving near the northwestern Bahamas and approaching the east
coast of Florida.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km) from the
center.

Data from NOAA buoy 41047 indicate that the minimum central pressure
is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas by
tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area along the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night with
tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along
the west coast of Florida by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 7 inches

Southeast Georgia into portions of South Carolina: 1 to 4 inches.

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north farther up the
Eastern Seaboard late Thursday into Friday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 080853
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
0900 UTC TUE NOV 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF FLORIDA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 71.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 0SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 270SE 180SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 71.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 71.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 27.6N 73.3W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...320NE 120SE 60SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...400NE 120SE 90SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.9N 77.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...400NE 90SE 90SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...320NE 90SE 90SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.0N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.9N 83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...240NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 38.8N 76.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 71.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 080552
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
100 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE LARGE
WIND FIELD OF NICOLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 71.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the
northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern
Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and
along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor
the progress of Nicole. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 27.3 North, longitude 71.2 West. Nicole is moving toward
the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west or
west-southwest is forecast to begin today, and that motion should
continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight,
move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east
coast of Florida Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected today and on Wednesday. Nicole is
forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity by Wednesday or
Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the northwestern
Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the
center.

Data from NOAA buoy 41047 indicate that the minimum central pressure
is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwest Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected elsewhere in the northwest Bahamas by
tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area in Florida by Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions
possible by tonight or early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday:

Northwest Bahamas, central and northern portions of the Florida
Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 7 inches.

Southeast Florida and Southeast Georgia: 1 to 3 inches with local
maxima of 5 inches.

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north farther up the
Eastern Seaboard late this week into this weekend.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwest
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 080254
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

Satellite images continue to show the signature of a subtropical
cyclone, with limited deep convective activity near the center and a
large band of convection extending well to the east and southeast.
A subtropical satellite classification from TAFB, along with
observations from NOAA data buoy 41047 indicate little change in
strength, and the current intensity estimate remains at 40 kt. The
system remains very broad, with the strongest winds well removed
from the center.

Nicole is moving slowly northwestward, or about 310/7 kt, on the
northeastern side of a mid- to upper-level low, and this general
motion is likely to continue into Tuesday morning. The system
should turn toward the west and west-southwest beginning tomorrow
as an eastward-moving high pressure area builds to its north, and
move over the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Then, the cyclone is
likely to move around the western periphery of the ridge near
northern Florida and accelerate northeastward ahead of a large
mid-tropospheric trough moving into the east-central United States
around day 4. Nicole should continue to accelerate northeastward
near the northeastern United States coast around the end of the
forecast period. The official track forecast is very close to the
simple dynamical model consensus, TVCA, and is also similar to the
previous NHC track.

There is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the intensity
forecast. Nicole's sprawling structure and nearby dry
mid-level air suggest that it will take some time for the cyclone to
begin strengthening. It is expected, however, that the system will
at least begin to acquire an inner core structure within 24 hours
and be near or at hurricane intensity by the time it reaches the
northwest Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. The official
intensity forecast remains close to the HFIP corrected consensus
guidance and is a little above the GFS and ECMWF global model
wind speed predictions. Regardless of Nicole's exact intensity,
the storm's large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of
the cyclone will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas,
Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during the
next few days.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas beginning Tuesday night, where
a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday,
where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Florida and Georgia
beginning early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a storm surge
warning is now in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should
listen to advice given by local officials.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
U.S.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and
Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible along with river rises on portions of the St. Johns
River.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 27.0N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 27.4N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 27.2N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 09/1200Z 26.7N 76.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 26.8N 78.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 27.5N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0000Z 28.9N 82.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0000Z 33.1N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 41.2N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 080252
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
0300 UTC TUE NOV 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM HALLANDALE BEACH
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A STORM SURGE WARNING
FROM NORTH PALM BEACH NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...INCLUDING THE
MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA.
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
HALLANDALE BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE ON TUESDAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 71.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......270NE 270SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 270SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 71.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 70.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.4N 72.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...260NE 180SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 74.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...300NE 150SE 50SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.7N 76.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N 78.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...320NE 90SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.5N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 90SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.9N 82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 80SE 80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 33.1N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 41.2N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 71.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 080253
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 71.1W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Hallandale Beach
Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning
from North Palm Beach northward to Altamaha Sound, including the
Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwest Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini,
and Grand Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera
* Hallandale Beach to Altamaha Sound
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and
along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor
the progress of Nicole. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole
was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 71.1 West. The
storm is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the west or west-southwest is forecast to begin on Tuesday,
and that motion should continue through early Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern
Bahamas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, move near or over those
islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Nicole is
forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity by Wednesday or
Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the northwestern
Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwest Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected elsewhere in the northwest Bahamas by
Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area in Florida by Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions
possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to
Georgetown...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the
northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday:

Northwest Bahamas, central and northern portions of the Florida
Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 7 inches.

Southeast Florida and Southeast Georgia: 1 to 3 inches with local
maxima of 5 inches.

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north farther up the
Eastern Seaboard late this week into this weekend.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwest
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 072333
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
700 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

...NICOLE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 70.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 K /H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwest Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to East Palatka

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound southward to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and
along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor
the progress of Nicole. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required tonight or early Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 70.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west or west-southwest is forecast to begin on Tuesday and that
motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas
on Tuesday and Tuesday night, move near or over those islands on
Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight or Tuesday,
with a faster rate of strengthening expected Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Nicole is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity
by Wednesday or Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the
northwestern Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the
center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwest Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected elsewhere in the northwest Bahamas by
Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area in Florida by Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions
possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to East
Palatka...2 to 4 ft
*Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
*North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the
northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday:

Across the northwest Bahamas, and the central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima of 6
inches.

Across coastal areas of southeast Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local
maxima of 5 inches.

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north across the
Southeastern United States late this week.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwest
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 072100 CCA
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
2100 UTC MON NOV 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND
ELEUTHERA.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER SOUTH TO EAST PALATKA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
HALLANDALE BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO HALLANDALE BEACH
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO EAST PALATKA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 70.6W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......270NE 270SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 120SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 70.6W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 70.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.3N 71.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 27.6N 73.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 50SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.7N 77.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...320NE 90SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 90SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 80SE 80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.2N 82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 37.5N 73.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 70.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 072057
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

Nicole's structure has changed little today. There is some limited
convective activity near the center with a large band of showers and
thunderstorms extending well north and east over the southwestern
Atlantic. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has
been investigating the system this afternoon and has found
flight-level and SFMR winds supporting tropical storm strength about
80 n mi northwest of the center, but earlier scatterometer data
indicated that the strongest winds are likely occurring in the band
well removed from the center. The aircraft reported that the
pressure is down to around 1000 mb. The initial intensity is
maintained at 40 kt and is based on a blend of the aircraft and
earlier satellite wind data.

Nicole is moving northwestward or 310/8 kt. A northwestward
motion is expected to continue overnight as the storm moves around
the northeastern portion of a decaying upper-level low. On Tuesday,
Nicole is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward as a
strong mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern United States.
This motion should bring the center of Nicole near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is
forecast to shift eastward, which should allow Nicole to turn
west-northwestward or northwestward as it approaches and then moves
over the Florida Peninsula. Later in the period, a large
mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States is
expected to cause Nicole to recurve northeastward. The track
guidance is in good agreement during the first few days of the
forecast period, and the confidence in this portion of the track
forecast is relatively high. The new NHC track foreast is similar
to the previous advisory through 72 hours, but shows a track
slightly farther inland along the southeast U.S. coast on day 4.
There is increasing along-track spread after 72 hours, with the
GFS and UKMET slower than the latest ECMWF. The NHC forecast is
near the multi-model consensus aids at those times.

Nicole's sprawling structure and nearby dry mid-level air suggest
that it will take some time for the cyclone to begin strengthening.
Warm ocean temperatures that Nicole will be traversing should
allow for a gradual increase in convection near the center, and
this combined with low vertical wind shear, is expected to result in
gradual moistening of the environment around Nicole. Most of the
dynamical models indicate that Nicole will be able to develop a
smaller inner core and transition into a tropical cyclone in 24
to 36 hours, and once that occurs, a faster rate of intensification
is anticipated. The latest NHC intensity prediction is similar to
the previous advisory and calls for the system to be at or near
hurricane strength when it passes near or over the northwest
Bahamas and reaches the east coast of Florida. The official wind
speed forecast is closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, and
near the most recent dynamical hurricane models. Regardless of
Nicole's exact intensity, the storm's large size due to an enhanced
pressure gradient north of the storm will likely cause significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the
United States during the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northwestern Bahamas beginning Tuesday night, where
a Hurricane Warning has been issued.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the coast
of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday,
where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas in Florida and
Georgia beginning by early Wednesday.

3. A dangerous storm surge is possible across much of the east coast
of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia. The storm surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to
be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to
affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast
U.S.

5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and
Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible along with river rises on portions of the St. Johns
River.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 26.6N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 08/0600Z 27.3N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
24H 08/1800Z 27.6N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
36H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 09/1800Z 26.7N 77.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 28.0N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 31.2N 82.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1800Z 37.5N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 072056
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

...NICOLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 70.6W
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued for Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended southward along the St.
Johns River south to East Palatka.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwest Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to East Palatka

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound southward to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and
along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor
the progress of Nicole. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required tonight or early Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 70.6 West. The storm is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected tonight. A turn toward the west or
west-southwest is forecast to begin by Tuesday night and that motion
should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday
and Tuesday night, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and
approach the east coast of Florida Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight or Tuesday, with a
faster rate of strengthening expected Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Nicole is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity by
Wednesday or Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the
northwestern Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the
center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwest Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected elsewhere in the northwest Bahamas by
Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area in Florida by Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions
possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to East
Palatka...2 to 4 ft
*Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
*North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the
northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday:

Across the northwest Bahamas, and the central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima of 6
inches.

Across coastal areas of southeast Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local
maxima of 5 inches.

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north across the
Southeast late this week.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwest
Bahamas, east coast of Florida, and much of the coast of the
southeastern United States during the next several days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 072053
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
2100 UTC MON NOV 07 2022

CCHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND
ELEUTHERA.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER SOUTH TO EAST PALATKA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
HALLANDALE BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO HALLANDALE BEACH
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO EAST PALATKA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 70.6W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......270NE 270SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 120SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 70.6W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 70.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.3N 71.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 27.6N 73.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 50SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.7N 77.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...320NE 90SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 90SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 80SE 80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.2N 82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 37.5N 73.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 70.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 071747
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
200 PM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

...LARGE NICOLE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 70.1W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound southward to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and
along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor
the progress of Nicole. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 70.1 West. The storm
is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected later this afternoon through
tonight. A turn toward the west or west-southwest is then forecast
to begin by Tuesday night and that motion should continue through
early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will
approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east
coast of Florida Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Nicole is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity by
Wednesday or Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the
northwestern Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
the northwest Bahamas by early Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area in Florida by Wednesday night with
tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge... 3 to 5 ft
*Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
*North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the
northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday:

Across the northwest Bahamas, and the central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima of 6
inches

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north across the
Southeast United States late this week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 071644 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

Corrected to add Lake Okeechobee in the Watch and Warning changes.

...NICOLE REMAINS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS IT BEGINS TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE EAST FLORIDA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 69.6W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach and for
Lake Okeechobee.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of Georgia
and east coast of Florida from Altamaha Sound southward to
Hallandale Beach.

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound, Georgia
southward to Volusia/Brevard County Line and south of Hallandale
Beach to north of Ocean Reef.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound southward to Volusia Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and
along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the
progress of Nicole. Additional watches will likely be required
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole
was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 69.6 West. The storm
is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today. A turn
westward or west-southwestward is then forecast Tuesday through
early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will
approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over
those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida
by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nicole is forecast to be at hurricane intensity by Wednesday or
Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the northwestern
Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
the northwest Bahamas by early Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area in Florida by Wednesday night with
tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge... 3 to 5 ft
*Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
*North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday:

Across the northwest Bahamas, and the central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima of 6
inches

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north across the
Southeast United States late this week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 071515 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 2... Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

Corrected to add Lake Okeechobee in the Watch and Warning changes.

...NICOLE REMAINS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS IT BEGINS TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE EAST FLORIDA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 69.6W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach and for
Lake Okeechobee.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of Georgia
and east coast of Florida from Altamaha Sound southward to
Hallandale Beach.

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound, Georgia
southward to Volusia/Brevard County Line and south of Hallandale
Beach to north of Ocean Reef.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound southward to Volusia Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and
along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the
progress of Nicole. Additional watches will likely be required
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole
was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 69.6 West. The storm
is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today. A turn
westward or west-southwestward is then forecast Tuesday through
early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will
approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over
those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida
by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nicole is forecast to be at hurricane intensity by Wednesday or
Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the northwestern
Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
the northwest Bahamas by early Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area in Florida by Wednesday night with
tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge... 3 to 5 ft
*Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
*North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday:

Across the northwest Bahamas, and the central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima of 6
inches

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north across the
Southeast United States late this week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 071512 CCA
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2... CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
1500 UTC MON NOV 07 2022

CORRECTED TO ADD LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE WATCH AND WARNING CHANGES.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO HALLANDALE BEACH AND FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF GEORGIA
AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD
TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
SOUTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE...AND SOUTH OF
HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO HALLANDALE BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...AND ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NICOLE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 69.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 69.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.7N 71.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 50SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.6N 74.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...320NE 100SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...370NE 140SE 170SW 310NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...330NE 90SE 120SW 285NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.3N 81.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 80SE 90SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 29.4N 83.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 33.3N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 69.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 071458
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

The structure of Nicole this morning remains distinctly subtropical,
as the low-level circulation remains tangled up with an elongated
upper-level low. The wind-field also remains quite broad, with data
from the NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunters this morning showing the highest
winds remaining displaced well away from the center. The initial
intensity is being held at 40 kt for this advisory which is
supported by the subtropical classification of ST2.5/35-40 kt from
TAFB, the earlier scatterometer data, and recent SFMR winds from the
NOAA-P3 aircraft in the 40-kt range.

Nicole might be starting to take a northwestward turn this morning,
with the estimated motion at 320/8 kt. A continued northwestward
motion is expected through the day, though there might be some
wobbles more north or west here and there as the low-level
circulation continues to interact with the decaying upper-level low.
After 24 hours, an anomalously strong mid-level ridge is expected to
amplify over the southeastern U.S. which is expected to steer Nicole
and result in the system turning westward or even west-southwestward
on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This ridging will then re-position
itself to the northeast of Nicole by Thursday and Friday which is
expected to allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude after it
moves across the Florida Peninsula, though how quickly this occurs
is a source of track uncertainty in this time frame. Finally a broad
mid-latitude trough is forecast to eject out of the Rockies into the
Great Lakes region, further eroding the ridge and allowing Nicole to
recurve by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is
fairly tightly clustered for the first 60 hours of the forecast,
though it has taken a noticeable shift southward this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast was shifted a bit southward due to this
adjustment, but still is a bit north of the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach (HCCA).

Intensity wise, Nicole may take some time to consolidate given its
large radius of maximum winds and currently meager central
convection due to nearby dry air related to the nearby upper-level
low. This feature should gradually decay and warm 27-28 C
sea-surface temperatures should enable more organized convection to
develop while the system remains in a low vertical wind shear
environment. Nicole is forecast to transition to a tropical storm
sometime in the 24-36 hour period as this convection helps to
contract the radius of maximum wind, with further intensification
expected thereafter. The intensity guidance was a bit higher this
cycle, and the latest forecast now takes Nicole to a 65-kt hurricane
in 60 hours, which is close to the latest HCCA, HMON, and SHIPS
guidance. After Nicole moves inland, weakening is anticipated, and
the region that Nicole is forecast to emerge off in the northern
Gulf of Mexico has cooler SSTs that likely would not support robust
reintensification. Regardless on the ultimate intensity of Nicole,
the storm's large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of
the storm will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas,
Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during much
of the upcoming week.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the
northwestern Bahamas and southeast to east-central Florida
beginning Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning Wednesday.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible across portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, much of the east coast of Florida and portions
of coastal Georgia. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for most of
the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected
to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the
center, and outside of the cone, and affect much of the Florida
peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and
Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will
be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with
river rises on portions of the St. Johns River.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.2N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 08/0000Z 27.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
24H 08/1200Z 27.7N 71.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
36H 09/0000Z 27.6N 74.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 27.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 29.4N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 33.3N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 071456
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

...NICOLE REMAINS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS IT BEGINS TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE EAST FLORIDA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 69.6W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of Georgia
and east coast of Florida from Altamaha Sound southward to
Hallandale Beach.

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound, Georgia
southward to Volusia/Brevard County Line and south of Hallandale
Beach to north of Ocean Reef.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound southward to Volusia Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and
along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the
progress of Nicole. Additional watches will likely be required
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole
was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 69.6 West. The storm
is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today. A turn
westward or west-southwestward is then forecast Tuesday through
early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will
approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over
those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida
by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nicole is forecast to be at hurricane intensity by Wednesday or
Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the northwestern
Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
the northwest Bahamas by early Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area in Florida by Wednesday night with
tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge... 3 to 5 ft
*Hallendale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
*North of Ocean Reef to Hallendale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday:

Across the northwest Bahamas, and the central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima of 6
inches

Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north across the
Southeast United States late this week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 071453
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
1500 UTC MON NOV 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO HALLANDALE BEACH

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF GEORGIA
AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD
TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
SOUTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE...AND SOUTH OF
HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO HALLANDALE BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...AND ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF NICOLE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 69.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 69.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.7N 71.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 50SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.6N 74.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...320NE 100SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...370NE 140SE 170SW 310NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...330NE 90SE 120SW 285NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.3N 81.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 80SE 90SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 29.4N 83.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 33.3N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 69.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 071152
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
800 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE...
...PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 69.1W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas, Florida, and along the
southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress
of Nicole. Additional watches will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was
located by NOAA Hurricane Hunters near latitude 25.9 North,
longitude 69.1 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northwest
near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a decrease
in forward speed is expected later today. A westward or
west-southwestward motion is forecast Tuesday through early
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach
the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over those islands
on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida by Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Nicole could be near or at hurricane intensity by Wednesday or
Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 1002 mb (29.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern
Bahamas by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima of 6 inches, across the northwestern
Bahamas Tuesday through Thursday.

Heavy rainfall from this system is expected to impact portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States by mid to late week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 070900
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
500 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean has been gradually becoming better
organized. Scatterometer data and buoy observations from last
evening indicated that the system has developed a sufficiently
well-defined center of circulation, with gale-force winds as high as
40 kt occurring in a band that lies between 180-240 n mi to the east
of the center. Moderate to deep convection has also increased a
bit, with TAFB providing a subtropical Hebert-Poteat classification
of ST1.5. Given these data, the system is now being classified as a
subtropical storm.

Since Nicole's center has only recently formed, the initial motion
is a little uncertain, but the best estimate is north-northwestward,
or 330/12 kt. Model guidance indicates that the system should turn
northwestward and slow down later today, followed by a turn toward
the west and west-southwest tonight through Tuesday night due to a
mid-level ridge axis poking eastward off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
coast. In about 3 days, the high over the southeastern United
States will slide eastward over the Atlantic as a large mid-latitude
trough traverses the country, and Nicole is expected to make a sharp
recurvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the
vicinity of Florida. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement
on this scenario, and the official NHC track forecast is fairly
close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Some gradual strengthening is anticipated over the next few days,
although Nicole's sprawling nature does not favor fast
intensification, at least not initially. For the first couple of
days of the forecast, the NHC intensity prediction closely follows
the GFS global model solution. Although Nicole is likely to
maintain a large wind field, models suggest that it could make a
transition to a tropical cyclone and develop a smaller inner-core
wind field in about 2 to 3 days, and at that point more significant
intensification is possible. For now, the NHC intensity forecast
brings Nicole close to hurricane strength in 60-72 hours while it
moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of
Florida, which is in line with the HCCA consensus aid. It's not out
of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially
given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas. It
should be stressed, however, that no matter Nicole's ultimate
intensity, the storm's large size will likely cause significant
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the
northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the
United States during much of the upcoming week.

Key Messages:

1. Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless of its
exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf
and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during much of the
upcoming week.

2. Nicole could be at or near hurricane strength when it moves
near the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential for a dangerous
storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to a portion of
those areas. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas, and additional watches could be required for
portions of the Bahamas and the coast of Florida later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 25.5N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 26.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 27.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 28.2N 72.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 27.6N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 09/1800Z 26.8N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 29.2N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 32.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 070859
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
500 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

...SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORMS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 68.5W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northwestern Bahamas, including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahama Island,
and Bimini.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas, Florida, and along the
southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress
of Nicole. Additional watches will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 68.5 West. Nicole is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected
later today. A westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast
Tuesday through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move
near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east
coast of Florida by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nicole could be near or at hurricane intensity by Wednesday or
Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas.

Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern
Bahamas by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima of 6 inches, across the northwestern
Bahamas Tuesday through Thursday.

Heavy rainfall from this system is expected to impact portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States by mid to late week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 070859
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
0900 UTC MON NOV 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...AND BIMINI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...AND ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF NICOLE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 68.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 68.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 68.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.3N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 40SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.2N 72.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...240NE 90SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.6N 74.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...400NE 60SE 210SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.8N 77.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...400NE 90SE 120SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 90SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 29.2N 83.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 32.8N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 68.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>