Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 131239
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 88/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 34.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 14/03/2023 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 14/03/2023 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 15/03/2023 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 15/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 16/03/2023 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

72H: 16/03/2023 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE A RALENTI ET
A COMMENCE A AMORCER UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU NORD-NORD-OUEST EN
LONGEANT LA FRONTIERE ENTRE LE SUD DU MALAWI ET LE MOZAMBIQUE. LA
CONVECTION EST MOINS BIEN ORGANISEE QUE CE MATIN (AMSR2 DE 1104Z)
MAIS RESTE ASSEZ INTENSE (LEGERE ATTENUATION DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD
ET RENFORCEMENT DANS CELUI AU NORD). L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST
ABAISSEE A 25KT.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
PRESENTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME CONTINUE D'ORIENTER FREDDY VERS LE
NORD-OUEST MAIS AVEC UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT SOUS L'EFFET
CONTRADICTOIRE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE PLUS AU NORD. A
PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR, UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EN BASSE TROPOSHERE
DEVRAIT PRENDRE LA MAIN ET REDIRIGER AINSI LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL VERS
LE SUD-EST AVEC UNE POSSIBLE RESSORTIE EN MER VERS LE MILIEU DE
SEMAINE. LA PREVISION CMRS RESTE PROCHE DU SCENARIO DU MODELE
EUROPEEN.

FREDDY VA CONTINUER A LENTEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR LORS DE SON TRAJET SUR
TERRE. SI L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER RESTE PRIVILEGIEE, BIEN
QUE NON GARANTIE, LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES PREVUES
N'APPARAISSENT TOUTEFOIS PAS FAVORABLES A UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION. EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL (PROFOND ET MOYEN) DE
SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST AUGMENTE SENSIBLEMENT EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT
D'UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AUCUNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE N'EST PREVUE PAR LA PLUPART DES
MODELES. IL DEVRAIT AINSI RESSORTIR EN MER SOUS FORME DE FAIBLE ZONE
PERTURBEE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI PUIS SE DISSIPER A PARTIR DE JEUDI
SOUS L'EFFET DE CES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEFAVORABLES.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* RAFALES DE VENT JUSQU'A 80 KM/H CE LUNDI SOIR EN PROCHE PERIPHERIE
DU SYSTEME, TOUCHANT SURTOUT LES PROVINCES DE SOFALA ET DE MANICA,
DISPARAISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN JOURNA E DE MARDI.
* PERSISTANCE DE PLUIES TRES INTENSES SUR LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZIE, LE
NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA, LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE MANICA, LE
SUD-EST DE LA PROVINCE DE TETE, S'ETENDANT MARDI AUSSI SUR LE SUD DE
LA PROVINCE DE NIASSA. ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 48H JUSQU'A
200-300 MM SUR CES ZONES, ET LOCALEMENT 400 MM SUR LE RELIEF. DE
PLUS, AU MOMENT DE SA RESSORTIE SUR MER MERCREDI, DES CUMULS
ADDITIONNELS DE 100 MM SONT PREVUS SUR LE LITTORAL DE ZAMBEZIE QUI A
DEJA ETE AFFECTE LORS DE L'ATTERRISSAGE DE FREDDY. CES QUANTITES
S'AJOUTANT AUX CUMULS DEJA TOMBES SONT SUSCEPTIBLES DE GENERER DES
CRUES ET DES INONDATIONS DE TRES GRANDE AMPLEUR. FIN DES FORTES
PLUIES MERCREDI SOIR.
- MALAWI:
* RAFALES DE VENT MARQUA ES CE LUNDI DANS LE SUD DU PAYS, PROCHES DES
80 KM/H, S'ATTENUANT LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
* EPISODE PLUVIEUX INTENSE AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANT ATTEINDRE ENTRE
300 ET 400 MM EN 48H SUR LA POINTE SUD DU MALAWI ET LOCALEMENT UN PEU
PLUS SUR LE RELIEF. FIN DES FORTES PLUIES MERCREDI SOIR.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN DE SUIVI REGULIER DU SYSTEME FREDDY PAR
LE CMRS DE LA REUNION, SAUF REINTENSIFICATION. UN SUIVI QUOTIDIEN
SERA MAINTENU CES PROCHAINS JOURS VIA LES BULLETINS ZCIT DU CMRS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 131239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 88/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 34.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/14 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2023/03/14 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/03/15 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/03/15 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/03/16 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2023/03/16 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE OVERLAND DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND
HAS STARTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN
SOUTHERN MALAWI AND MOZAMBIQUE. CONVECTION IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN
THIS MORNING (AMSR2 OF 1104Z) BUT REMAINS QUITE INTENSE (SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRENGTHENING IN THE
NORTHERN ONE). THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 25KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTING, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER FREDDY NORTHWESTWARD BUT THE
SYSTEM'S FOREWARD SPEED IS SLOWING DOWN UNDER THE CONTRADICTORY
EFFECT OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD TAKE
OVER AND REDIRECT THE REMNANT LOW SOUTH-EASTWARD WITH A POSSIBLE EXIT
AT SEA AROUND MID-WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON THE
EUROPEAN MODEL'S TRACK.

FREDDY WILL KEEP SLOWLY WEAKENING OVERLAND. IF THE HYPOTHESIS OF AN
EXIT AT SEA IS FAVORED, ALTHOUGH NOT SURE, ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DO
NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. BY MID-WEEK, WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (DEEP AND MID-LEVEL) WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY, ACCOMPANIED BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS STILL SUGGESTED BY MOST MODELS. IT
SHOULD THUS EMERGE OUT AT SEA IN THE FORM OF A WEAK DISTURBED ZONE
FROM WEDNESDAY THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM THURSDAY UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 KM/H TODAY IN THE CLOSE PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM, MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN SOFALA AND MANICA DISTRICTS, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING ON TUESDAY.
* INTENSE RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER ZAMBEZIA, NORTHERN SOFALA,
NORTHERN MANICA AND SOUTHEAST TETE DISTRICTS, EXTENDING TUESDAY ALSO
ON THE SOUTH OF NIASSA DISTRICT. IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, UP TO 200-300
MM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, AND LOCALLY 400 MM IN THE
HIGHLANDS. MOREOVER, AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 MM ARE EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF
ZAMBEZIA WHICH WAS ALREADY AFFECTED DURING FREDDY'S LANDFALL. THESE
RAIN TOTALS, ADDING TO PREVIOUS TOTALS, ARE LIKELY TO GENERATE VERY
SEVERE FLOODS. END OF HEAVY RAINS AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- MALAWI:
* STRONG WIND GUSTS TODAY IN THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY, CLOSE TO 80
KM/H, WEAKENING QUICKLY TONIGHT.
* HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD REACH BETWEEN 300 AND
400 MM IN 48H OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MALAWI AND LOCALLY A LITTLE
MORE OVER THE HIGHER GROUND. END OF HEAVY RAINS AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THIS IS THE LAST REGULAR ADVISORY FOR FREDDY BY LA REUNION RSMC,
EXCEPT IN CASE OF UNEXPECTED INTENSIFICATION. A DAILY MONITORING WILL
BE DONE IN THE COMING DAYS VIA ITCZ BULLETINS OF THE RSMC.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130745
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 87/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 34.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2023 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 14/03/2023 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 14/03/2023 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 15/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 15/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 16/03/2023 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE A CONTINUE A
SE DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
UN PEU A L'OUEST DE LA POINTE SUD DU MALAWI. LA CONVECTION RESTE BIEN
ORGANISEE SOUS FORME D'UNE SPIRALE S'INCURVANT VERS UN CENTRE BIEN
DEFINI, COMME INDIQUE PAR LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES.
L'INTENSITE DE LA CONVECTION RESTE PLUS FORTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD
DU SYSTEME. L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE EST MAINTENUE A 30KT.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE MODELE EUROPEEN IFS SEMBLE
LE MIEUX CALE SUR LA POSITION INITIALE DU CENTRE, MONTRANT UNE
PROGRESSION DU SYSTEME RENTRANT DAVANTAGE DANS LES TERRES PAR RAPPORT
AUX PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS. LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME CONTINUE D'ORIENTER FREDDY VERS LE NORD-OUEST AU
COURS DES 18 PROCHAINES HEURES AVANT UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT
SOUS L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE PLUS AU
NORD. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EN BASSE TROPOSHERE
DEVRAIT PRENDRE LA MAIN ET REDIRIGER AINSI LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL VERS
LE SUD-EST AVEC UNE POSSIBLE RESSORTIE EN MER VERS LE MILIEU DE
SEMAINE. LA PREVISION CMRS RESTE PROCHE DU SCENARIO DU MODELE
EUROPEEN.

FREDDY VA CONTINUER A LENTEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR LORS DE SON TRAJET SUR
TERRE. SI L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER RESTE PRIVILEGIEE, BIEN
QUE NON GARANTIE, LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES PREVUES
N'APPARAISSENT TOUTEFOIS PAS FAVORABLES A UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION. EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL (PROFOND ET MOYEN) DE
SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST AUGMENTE SENSIBLEMENT EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT
D'UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AUCUNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE N'EST PREVUE PAR LA PLUPART DES
MODELES. C'EST DONC LE SCENARIO D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER D'UNE FAIBLE
ZONE PERTURBEE QUI EST PRIVILEGIE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* PRESENCE DE RAFALES DE VENT ENTRE 80 ET 90 KM/H CE LUNDI EN PROCHE
PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME, TOUCHANT SURTOUT LES PROVINCES DE SOFALA ET DE
MANICA, DISPARAISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN JOURNA E DE MARDI.
* PERSISTANCE DE PLUIES TRES INTENSES SUR LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZIE, LE
NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA, LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE MANICA, LE
SUD-EST DE LA PROVINCE DE TETE, S'ETENDANT MARDI AUSSI SUR LE SUD DE
LA PROVINCE DE NIASSA. ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 48H JUSQU'A
200-300 MM SUR CES ZONES, ET LOCALEMENT 400 MM SUR LE RELIEF. CES
QUANTITES S'AJOUTANT AUX CUMULS DEJA TOMBES SONT SUSCEPTIBLES DE
GENERER DES CRUES ET DES INONDATIONS DE TRES GRANDE AMPLEUR.
- MALAWI:
* RAFALES DE VENT MARQUA ES CE LUNDI DANS LE SUD DU PAYS, PROCHES DES
80 KM/H, S'ATTENUANT LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
* EPISODE PLUVIEUX INTENSE AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANT ATTEINDRE ENTRE
300 ET 400 MM EN 48H SUR LA POINTE SUD DU MALAWI ET LOCALEMENT UN PEU
PLUS SUR LE RELIEF.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130745
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 87/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 34.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/13 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2023/03/14 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/03/14 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/03/15 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/03/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/03/16 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE OVERLAND DEPRESSION HAS KEPT MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, WITH A LLCC LOCATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF MALAWI'S
SOUTHERN TIP. CONVECTION REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AS AN ACTIVE CURVED
BAND WRAPPING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, AS SHOWN BY RECENT MW
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION REMAINS STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ESTIMATED AT 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTING, THE EUROPEAN IFS MODEL SEEMS THE BEST
AT LOCATING THE ACTUAL SYSTEM'S CENTER, SHOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE
INLAND TRACK THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER FREDDY NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS BEFORE SLOWING DOWN UNDER THE CONTRADICTORY
EFFECT OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD TAKE
OVER AND REDIRECT THE REMNANT LOW SOUTH-EASTWARD WITH A POSSIBLE EXIT
AT SEA AROUND MID-WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON THE
EUROPEAN MODEL'S TRACK.

FREDDY WILL KEEP SLOWLY WEAKENING OVERLAND. IF THE HYPOTHESIS OF AN
EXIT AT SEA IS FAVORED, ALTHOUGH NOT SURE, ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DO
NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. BY MID-WEEK, WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (DEEP AND MID-LEVEL) WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY, ACCOMPANIED BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS STILL SUGGESTED BY MOST MODELS. THE
FAVORED SCENARIO IS THUS AN EXIT AT SEA OF A WEAK DISTURBED ZONE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 80 AND 90 KM/H TODAY IN THE CLOSE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM, MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN SOFALA AND MANICA DISTRICTS,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING ON TUESDAY.
* INTENSE RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER ZAMBEZIA, NORTHERN SOFALA,
NORTHERN MANICA AND SOUTHEAST TETE DISTRICTS, POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO
SOUTHERN NIASSA DISTRICT. IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, UP TO 200-300 MM
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, AND LOCALLY 400 MM IN THE
HIGHLANDS. THESE RAIN TOTALS, ADDING TO PREVIOUS TOTALS, ARE LIKELY
TO GENERATE VERY SEVERE FLOODS.
- MALAWI:
* STRONG WIND GUSTS TODAY IN THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY, CLOSE TO 80
KM/H, WEAKENING QUICKLY TONIGHT.
* HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD REACH BETWEEN 300 AND
400 MM IN 48H OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MALAWI AND LOCALLY A LITTLE
MORE OVER THE HIGHER GROUND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130640
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 87/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 34.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2023 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 14/03/2023 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 14/03/2023 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 15/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 15/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 16/03/2023 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE A CONTINUE A
SE DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
UN PEU A L'OUEST DE LA POINTE SUD DU MALAWI. LA CONVECTION RESTE BIEN
ORGANISEE SOUS FORME D'UNE SPIRALE S'INCURVANT VERS UN CENTRE BIEN
DEFINI, COMME INDIQUE PAR LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES.
L'INTENSITE DE LA CONVECTION RESTE PLUS FORTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD
DU SYSTEME. L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE EST MAINTENUE A 30KT.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE MODELE EUROPEEN IFS SEMBLE
LE MIEUX CALE SUR LA POSITION INITIALE DU CENTRE, MONTRANT UNE
PROGRESSION DU SYSTEME RENTRANT DAVANTAGE DANS LES TERRES PAR RAPPORT
AUX PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS. LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME CONTINUE D'ORIENTER FREDDY VERS LE NORD-OUEST AU
COURS DES 18 PROCHAINES HEURES AVANT UN RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT
SOUS L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE PLUS AU
NORD. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EN BASSE TROPOSHERE
DEVRAIT PRENDRE LA MAIN ET REDIRIGER AINSI LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL VERS
LE SUD-EST AVEC UNE POSSIBLE RESSORTIE EN MER VERS LE MILIEU DE
SEMAINE. LA PREVISION CMRS RESTE PROCHE DU SCENARIO DU MODELE
EUROPEEN.

FREDDY VA CONTINUER A LENTEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR LORS DE SON TRAJET SUR
TERRE. SI L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER RESTE PRIVILEGIEE, BIEN
QUE NON GARANTIE, LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES PREVUES
N'APPARAISSENT TOUTEFOIS PAS FAVORABLES A UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION. EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL (PROFOND ET MOYEN) DE
SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST AUGMENTE SENSIBLEMENT EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT
D'UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AUCUNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE N'EST PREVUE PAR LA PLUPART DES
MODELES. C'EST DONC LE SCENARIO D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER D'UNE FAIBLE
ZONE PERTURBEE NON ACCOMPAGNEE DE VENTS FORTS QUI EST PRIVILEGIE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* PRESENCE DE RAFALES DE VENT ENTRE 80 ET 90 KM/H CE LUNDI EN PROCHE
PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME, TOUCHANT SURTOUT LES PROVINCES DE SOFALA ET DE
MANICA, DISPARAISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN JOURNA E DE MARDI.
* PERSISTANCE DE PLUIES TRES INTENSES SUR LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZIE, LE
NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA, LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE MANICA, LE
SUD-EST DE LA PROVINCE DE TETE, S'ETENDANT MARDI AUSSI SUR LE SUD DE
LA PROVINCE DE NIASSA. ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 48H JUSQU'A
200-300 MM SUR CES ZONES, ET LOCALEMENT 400 MM SUR LE RELIEF. CES
QUANTITES S'AJOUTANT AUX CUMULS DEJA TOMBES SONT SUSCEPTIBLES DE
GENERER DES CRUES ET DES INONDATIONS DE TRES GRANDE AMPLEUR.
- MALAWI:
* RAFALES DE VENT MARQUA ES CE LUNDI DANS LE SUD DU PAYS, PROCHES DES
80 KM/H, S'ATTENUANT LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
* EPISODE PLUVIEUX INTENSE AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANT ATTEINDRE ENTRE
300 ET 400 MM EN 48H SUR LA POINTE SUD DU MALAWI ET LOCALEMENT UN PEU
PLUS SUR LE RELIEF.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 87/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 34.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/13 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2023/03/14 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/03/14 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/03/15 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/03/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/03/16 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE OVERLAND DEPRESSION HAS KEPT MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, WITH A LLCC LOCATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF MALAWI'S
SOUTHERN TIP. CONVECTION REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AS AN ACTIVE CURVED
BAND WRAPPING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, AS SHOWN BY RECENT MW
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION REMAINS STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ESTIMATED AT 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTING, THE EUROPEAN IFS MODEL SEEMS THE BEST
AT LOCATING THE ACTUAL SYSTEM'S CENTER, SHOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE
INLAND TRACK THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER FREDDY NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS BEFORE SLOWING DOWN UNDER THE CONTRADICTORY
EFFECT OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD TAKE
OVER AND REDIRECT THE REMNANT LOW SOUTH-EASTWARD WITH A POSSIBLE EXIT
AT SEA AROUND MID-WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON THE
EUROPEAN MODEL'S TRACK.

FREDDY WILL KEEP SLOWLY WEAKENING OVERLAND. ASEMAIN WITH WEAK WINDS
DURING ITS COURSE OVERLAND. IF THE HYPOTHESIS OF AN EXIT AT SEA IS
FAVORED, ALTHOUGH NOT SURE, ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DO NOT SEEM
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. BY MID-WEEK, WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (DEEP AND MID-LEVEL) INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY,
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR INTRUSIONS IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. NO
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS STILL SUGGESTED BY MOST MODELS. THE
FAVORED SCENARIO IS AN EXIT AT SEA OF A DISTURBED ZONE NOT ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG WINDS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 80 AND 90 KM/H TODAY IN THE CLOSE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM, MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN SOFALA AND MANICA DISTRICTS,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING ON TUESDAY.
* INTENSE RAINFALL WILL PERSIST OVER ZAMBEZIA, NORTHERN SOFALA,
NORTHERN MANICA AND SOUTHEAST TETE DISTRICTS, POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO
SOUTHERN NIASSA DISTRICT. IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, UP TO 200-300 MM
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, AND LOCALLY 400 MM IN THE
HIGHLANDS. THESE RAIN TOTALS, ADDING TO PREVIOUS TOTALS, ARE LIKELY
TO GENERATE VERY SEVERE FLOODS.
- MALAWI:
* STRONG WIND GUSTS TODAY IN THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY, CLOSE TO 80
KM/H, WEAKENING QUICKLY TONIGHT.
* HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD REACH BETWEEN 300 AND
400 MM IN 48H OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MALAWI AND LOCALLY A LITTLE
MORE OVER THE HIGHER GROUND.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 130051
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 86/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.9 S / 35.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2023 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 14/03/2023 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 14/03/2023 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 15/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 15/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

72H: 16/03/2023 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT (SUR TERRE)

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE S'EST
DEPLACEE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT
LEGEREMENT SA COURSE, AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES LOCALISE
DESORMAIS SUR LA POINTE SUD DU MALAWI. UN REGAIN DE L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE EST PONCTUELLEMENT LOCALISE ASSEZ LOIN AU SUD DU CENTRE
(70MN) DANS LES CONVERGENCES LIA ES A LA DEPRESSION. LES PLUS FORTES
PRECIPITATIONS SEMBLENT ALORS SE DA PORTER DAVANTAGE SUR LA PROVINCE
DE SOFALA. L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE DU SYSTEME EST MAINTENU A 30KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. IL PERSISTE
TOUJOURS UNE DISPERSION RELATIVEMENT IMPORTANTE DES GUIDANCES AU
CALAGE, SE MAINTENANT EN PREVISION. LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE
AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME CONTINUE D'ORIENTER FREDDY VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST AU COURS DES 18 PROCHAINES HEURES AVANT UN
RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT SOUS L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE PLUS AU NORD. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN FLUX
DE NORD-OUEST EN BASSE TROPOSHERE DEVRAIT PRENDRE LA MAIN ET
REDIRIGER AINSI LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL VERS LE SUD-EST AVEC UNE POSSIBLE
RESSORTIE EN MER VERS LE MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. LA PREVISION
CMRS RESTE BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES LES MIEUX
CALEES SUR LA SITUATION ACTUELLE, EN EXCLUANT LES GUIDANCES JUGA ES
TROP RAPIDES OU TROP DISPERSEES PAR RAPPORT AU CONSENSUS GLOBAL.

FREDDY VA SE MAINTENIR AVEC DES VENTS FAIBLES LORS DE SON TRAJET SUR
TERRE. SI L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER SE CONFIRME, LES
CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES PREVUES N'APPARAISSENT TOUTEFOIS PAS
FAVORABLES A UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION SELON L'EVOLUTION ENVISAGEE. EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL (PROFOND ET MOYEN) DE
SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST AUGMENTE SENSIBLEMENT EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT
D'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DEVRAIT RESTER INSUFFISANT SUITE AU REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX DE
SURFACE LORS DU PASSAGE RA CENT DE FREDDY (BIEN QUE DES POCHES
RESIDUELLES DE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SOIENT ENCORE PRESENTES DANS LE
CANAL), AUCUNE RE-INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE N'EST POUR L'INSTANT
SUGGEREE ET C'EST LE SCENARIO D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER D'UNE ZONE
PERTURBEE NON ACCOMPAGNEE DE VENTS FORTS QUI EST PRIVILEGIE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* PRESENCE DE RAFALES DE VENT ENTRE 80 ET 90 KM/H EN JOURNA E EN
PROCHE PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME, LE PLUS SOUVENT LOCALISA ES SUR LES
PROVINCES DE SOFOLA ET DE MANICA, DISPARAISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN
JOURNA E DE MARDI.
* PERSISTANCE DE FORTES PLUIES SUR LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZIE ET LE
NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA, POUVANT S'A TENDRE SUR LE NORD DE LA
PROVINCE DE MANICA. ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 48H JUSQU'A 200 MM
SUR CES ZONES, ET LOCALEMENT 300 MM SUR LES RELIEFS.
- MALAWI:
* RAFALES DE VENT MARQUA ES AUJOURD'HUI DANS LE SUD PROCHE DES 80
KM/H, SE DISSIPANT RAPIDEMENT EN FIN DE JOURNA E.
* EPISODE PLUVIEUX MARQUA AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANT ATTEINDRE ENTRE
300 ET 400 MM EN 48H SUR LA POINTE SUD DU MALAWI ET LOCALEMENT UN PEU
PLUS SUR LE RELIEF.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 130051
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 86/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 35.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/13 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2023/03/14 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/03/14 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/03/15 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/03/15 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2023/03/16 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL (OVERLAND)

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE OVERLAND DEPRESSION HAS SHIFTED IN A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION, ACCELERATING SLIGHTLY, WITH A
LOW-LEVEL CENTER (LLC) NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MALAWI. A
REVIVAL OF CONVECIVE ACTIVITY IS PUNCTUALLY LOCATED QUITE FAR SOUTH
OF THE CENTER (70MN) IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCES LINKED TO THE
VOTEX. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOFALA DISTRICT . THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED
AT 30KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTING. THERE IS STILL A
RELATIVELY LARGE DISPERSION OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE SETTING,
MAINTAINING ITSELF IN FORECAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER FREDDY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS BEFORE SLOWING DOWN UNDER THE CONTRADICTORY
EFFECT OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD TAKE
OVER AND REDIRECT THE RESIDUAL LOW TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST WITH A
POSSIBLE EXIT AT SEA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RSMC
FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE ON
THE CURRENT SITUATION, EXCLUDING GUIDANCE CONSIDERED TOO FAST OR TOO
DISPERSED COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS.

FREDDY WILL REMAIN WITH WEAK WINDS DURING ITS COURSE OVERLAND. IF THE
HYPOTHESIS OF AN EXIT AT SEA IS CONFIRMED, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
DO NOT SEEM TO BE CONDUCIVE TO A RE-INTENSIFICATION ACCORDING TO THE
EVOLUTION EXPECTED. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (DEEP AND MEDIUM) FROM WEST TO NORTH-WEST INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY, ACCOMPANIED BY INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE. THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT
FOLLOWING THE COOLING OF SURFACE WATERS DURING THE RECENT PASSAGE OF
FREDDY (ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL POCKETS OF OHC ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL), NO SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSE IS SUGGESTED FOR THE
MOMENT AND IT IS THE SCENARIO OF AN EXIT AT SEA OF A DISTURBED ZONE
NOT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS THAT IS FAVORED.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* PRESENCE OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 80 AND 90 KM/H TODAY IN THE CLOSE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, MOSTLY LOCALIZED OVER SOFOLA AND MANICA
DISTRICTS, GRADUALLY VANISHING ON TUESDAY.
* HEAVY RAINS PERSISTED OVER ZAMBEZIA DISTRICT AND NORTHERN SOFALA
DISTRICT, POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO NORTHERN MANICA DISTRICT. IN THE NEXT
48 HOURS, UP TO 200 MM ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, AND LOCALLY 300
MM IN THE HIGHLANDS.
- MALAWI:
* STRONG WIND GUSTS TODAY IN THE SOUTH CLOSE TO 80 KM/H, DISSIPATING
QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE DAY.
* HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE WITH ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD REACH BETWEEN
300 AND 400 MM IN 48H OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MALAWI AND LOCALLY A
LITTLE MORE OVER THE HILLS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121827
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 85/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 35.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 13/03/2023 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 14/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 14/03/2023 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 15/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

72H: 15/03/2023 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2023 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT (SUR TERRE)

PEU D'EVOLUTION SUR LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE SI CE N'EST UNE TRES
LEGERE AMELIORATION DE LA CONVECTION DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST DU
SYSTEME A L'HEURE DU RESEAU. LES FAUCHEES DES SSMIS RESPECTIVEMENT DE
1429Z ET 1409Z MONTRENT BIEN CETTE CONVECTION PROFONDE BIEN ETABLIE
DANS CES SECTEURS, SUGGERANT AINSI LA POURSUITE DE FORTS EPISODES DE
PLUIES EN COURS SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. TOUTEFOIS, AVEC L'ENFONCEMENT DE
FREDDY DANS LES TERRES, ET LES FROTTEMENTS DUS AU RELIEF DEPUIS CES 6
DERNIERES HEURES, L'ESTIMATION DES VENTS A A TA LA GA REMENT
ABAISSEE A 30KT.

PEU D'EVOLUTION EN TERMES DE PREVISION, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
PRESENTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME CONTINUE D'ORIENTER FREDDY UN PEU
PLUS VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A LUNDI EN JOURNEE AVANT UN
RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT SOUS L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE PLUS AU NORD. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN FLUX
DE NORD-OUEST EN BASSE TROPOSHERE DEVRAIT REDIRIGER LE MINIMUM
RESIDUEL VERS LE SUD-EST AVEC UNE POSSIBLE RESSORTIE EN MER VERS LE
MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. LA PREVISION CMRS RESTE BASEE SUR UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES LES MIEUX CALEES SUR LA SITUATION
ACTUELLE, EN EXCLUANT LES GUIDANCES TROP RAPIDES OU RESTANTES TROP
SUR MER.

FREDDY VA SE MAINTENIR A UN ETAT RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE LORS DE SON
TRAJET SUR TERRE. SI L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER SE CONFIRME,
LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES PREVUES N'APPARAISSENT TOUTEFOIS PAS
FAVORABLES A UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION SELON L'EVOLUTION ENVISAGEE. EN
EFFET DES MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL (PROFOND ET MOYEN) DE
SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST AUGMENTE SENSIBLEMENT EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT
D'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
DEVRAIT RESTER INSUFFISANT SUITE AU REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX DE
SURFACE LORS DU PASSAGE RA CENT DE FREDDY (BIEN QUE DES POCHES
RESIDUELLES DE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SOIENT ENCORE PRESENTES DANS LE
CANAL), AUCUNE RE-INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE N'EST POUR L'INSTANT
SUGGEREE ET C'EST LE SCENARIO D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER D'UNE ZONE
PERTURBEE NON ACCOMPAGNEE DE VENTS FORTS QUI EST PRIVILEGIE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LE DEPLACEMENT LENT ACTUEL ET PREVU DE FREDDY RESTE UN PARAMETRE
AGGRAVANT SUR LES IMPACTS ATTENDUS.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* PRESENCE DE RAFALES DE VENT EN SOIREE ET DEMAIN DIMANCHE DANS LA
PROCHE PERIPHERIE DU DU SYSTEME
* PERSISTANCE DE FORTES PLUIES SUR LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZIE ET LE
NORD DE SOFALA, POUVANT S'A TENDRE SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE
MANICA. ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 48H ENTRE 200 A 300 MM SUR CES
ZONES.
- SUD DU MALAWI:
* EPISODE PLUVIEUX MARQUA AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANT ATTEINDRE ENTRE
300 ET 400 MM SUR 48H ET LOCALEMENT DAVANTAGE SUR LE RELIEF.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121827
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 85/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 35.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/13 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2023/03/13 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/03/14 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/03/14 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/03/15 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2023/03/15 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/16 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL (OVERLAND)

LITTLE EVOLUTION ON THE CLOUD PATTERN EXCEPT A VERY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM
AT THE TIME OF THE RUN. THE 1429Z AND 1409Z SSMIS SWATHS SHOW WELL
THIS DEEP CONVECTION WELL ESTABLISHED IN THESE SECTORS, SUGGESTING
THUS THE PURSUIT OF STRONG RAINY EPISODES IN PROGRESS OVER
MOZAMBIQUE. HOWEVER, WITH THE SINKING OF FREDDY OVERLAND, AND THE
FRICTION DUE TO THE RELIEF SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED TO 30KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STEER FREDDY A
LITTLE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNTIL MONDAY DURING THE DAY BEFORE A
SLOWDOWN OF THE MOVEMENT UNDER THE CONTRADICTORY EFFECT OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, A
NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TROPOSPHERE SHOULD REDIRECT THE
RESIDUAL MINIMUM SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITH A POSSIBLE EXIT AT SEA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION, EXCLUDING
GUIDANCE THAT IS TOO FAST OR REMAINS TOO MUCH OVER THE SEA.

FREDDY WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STATE DURING ITS JOURNEY ON
LAND. IF THE HYPOTHESIS OF AN EXIT AT SEA IS CONFIRMED, THE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DO NOT SEEM TO BE CONDUCIVE TO A
RE-INTENSIFICATION ACCORDING TO THE EVOLUTION CONSIDERED. INDEED,
FROM WEDNESDAY, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (DEEP AND MEDIUM) FROM WEST
TO NORTH-WEST INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, ACCOMPANIED BY INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL (OHC)
SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOLLOWING THE COOLING OF SURFACE WATERS
DURING THE RECENT PASSAGE OF FREDDY (ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL POCKETS OF OHC
ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE CHANNEL), NO SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION
IS SUGGESTED FOR THE MOMENT AND IT IS THE SCENARIO OF AN EMERGENCE AT
SEA OF A DISTURBED ZONE NOT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS THAT IS
FAVORED.

IMPACTS ON HABITAT LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
THE CURRENT AND FORECAST SLOW MOVEMENT OF FREDDY REMAINS AN
AGGRAVATING FACTOR ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS - MOZAMBIQUE :
* PRESENCE OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE EVENING AND TOMORROW SUNDAY IN THE
CLOSE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
* PERSISTENCE OF HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZIE AND THE
NORTH OF SOFALA, WHICH MAY EXTEND TO THE NORTH OF THE PROVINCE OF
MANICA. 200 TO 300 MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS OVER THESE
AREAS.
- SOUTHERN MALAWI:
* HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE WITH CUMULATIVE RAINFALL UP TO 300 TO 400 MM
OVER 48H AND LOCALLY MORE OVER THE RELIEF.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 121205
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 84/7/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 36.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 95 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 55 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 13/03/2023 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 195 NO: 0

24H: 13/03/2023 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 14/03/2023 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 14/03/2023 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 15/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 15/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2023 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST BIEN AFFAIBLIE AU COURS DES DERNIERES
6 HEURES, MAIS L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST ENCORE BIEN PRESENTE PRES DU
CENTRE. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MESUREES SUR TERRE, IL RESTE
DIFFICILE D'ESTIMER L'INTENSITE DES VENTS MAIS LA PASSE ASCAT
PARTIELLE DE 0721UTC PERMET DE NOTER LA FIN DU COUP DE VENT SUR MER A
ECHEANCE DE CE BULLETIN. LES ANIMATIONS SATELLITES PERMETTENT AUSSI
DE NOTER QUE LA CIRCULATION RESTE ENCORE PROFONDE. UNE ESTIMATION DE
35KT EST DONC FAITE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE POUR FREDDY DONT ON RESTE
ENCORE SUR UNE DENOMINATION DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DU FAIT DE
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ENCORE NOTABLE PRES DE SON CENTRE, BIEN QU'EN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

PEU D'EVOLUTION EN TERME DE PREVISION, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
PRESENTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME CONTINUE D'ORIENTER FREDDY UN PEU
PLUS VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A LUNDI EN JOURNEE AVANT UN
RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT SOUS L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE PLUS AU NORD. A PARTIR DE MARDI, UN FLUX
DE NORD-OUEST EN BASSES TROPOSHERE DEVRAIT REDIRIGER LE MINIMUM
RESIDUEL VERS LE SUD-EST AVEC UNE POSSIBLE RESSORTIE EN MER VERS LE
MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. LA PREVISION CMRS RESTE BASEE SUR UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES LES MIEUX CALES SUR LA SITUATION
ACTUELLE, EN EXCLUANT LES GUIDANCES TROP RAPIDES OU RESTANTES TROP
SUR MER.

FREDDY VA CONTINUER DE S'AFFAIBLIR LORS DE SON TRAJET SUR TERRE. SI
L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER SE CONFIRME, LES CONDITIONS
ATMOSPHERIQUE N'APPARAISSENT TOUTEFOIS PAS FAVORABLES A UNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION SELON L'EVOLUTION ENVISAGEE. EN EFFET DES MARDI,
LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL (PROFOND ET MOYEN) DE SECTEUR OUEST A
NORD-OUEST AUGMENTE SENSIBLEMENT EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT D'INTRUSION D'AIR
SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AYANT AUSSI BIEN
DIMINUE (BIEN QUE DES POCHES DE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUFFISANT SONT
ENCORE PRESENTES DANS LE CANAL), AUCUNE RE-INTENSIFICATION
SIGNIFICATIVE N'EST POUR L'INSTANT SUGGEREE ET C'EST LE SCENARIO
D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER D'UNE ZONE PERTURBEE NON ACCOMPAGNEE DE VENTS
FORT QUI EST PRIVILEGIE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LE DEPLACEMENT LENT ACTUEL ET PREVU DE FREDDY RESTE UN PARAMETRE
AGGRAVANT SUR LES IMPACTS ATTENDUS.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* LES CONDITIONS DE COUP DE VENT PERSISTENT ENCORE JUSQU'EN FIN DE
JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE. DE FORTES RAFALES DE VENT SERONT ENCORES
PRESENTES AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN PRES DU CENTRE ET DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD DE FREDDY.
* POURSUITE DE L'EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES SUR LA PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZIE
ET LE NORD DE SOFALA. ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 48H ENTRE 200 A
350 MM SUR CES ZONES.
-MALAWI:
L'EPISODE PLUVIEUX DEMARRE CE DIMANCHE AVEC DES CUMULS SUR 48H
POUVANT ATTEINDRE 200 A 300 MM SUR LE SUD DU PAYS, LOCALEMENT PLUS
SUR LE RELIEF. LA JOURNEE LA PLUS PLUVIEUSE DEVRAIT ETRE CELLE DE
LUNDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 121205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 84/7/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 36.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/13 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 0

24H: 2023/03/13 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/03/14 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/03/14 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/03/15 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/03/15 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/16 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS WEAKENED A LOT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER. IN THE ABSENCE
OF DATA MEASURED ON LAND, IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE
INTENSITY OF THE WINDS BUT THE PARTIAL ASCENDING PASS OF 0721UTC
ALLOWS TO NOTE THE END OF THE GALE ON SEA AT THE END OF THIS
BULLETIN. THE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS ALSO ALLOW TO NOTE THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS STILL DEEP. AN ESTIMATE OF 35KT IS MADE AT THE MOMENT
FOR FREDDY WHICH IS STILL DESIGNATED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
BECAUSE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL NOTABLE NEAR ITS CENTER,
ALTHOUGH WEAKENING.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT IN
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIRECT FREDDY A LITTLE MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL MONDAY DURING THE DAY BEFORE A SLOWDOWN OF THE
MOVEMENT UNDER THE CONTRADICTORY EFFECT OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
FURTHER NORTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
TROPOSPHERE SHOULD REDIRECT THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-EAST WITH A POSSIBLE EXIT INTO THE SEA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
BEST GUIDANCE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION, EXCLUDING GUIDANCE THAT IS
TOO FAST OR REMAINS TOO MUCH ON THE SEA.

FREDDY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING ITS TRACK OVERLAND. IF THE
HYPOTHESIS OF AN OUTBURST AT SEA IS CONFIRMED, THE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS DO NOT SEEM TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A RE-INTENSIFICATION
ACCORDING TO THE EVOLUTION ENVISAGED. INDEED, FROM TUESDAY, THE
VERTICAL SHEAR (DEEP AND MEDIUM) FROM WEST TO NORTH-WEST INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY, ACCOMPANIED BY INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL HAVING ALSO DECREASED (ALTHOUGH
POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT ENERGY POTENTIAL ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE
CHANNEL), NO SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SUGGESTED FOR THE
MOMENT AND IT IS THE SCENARIO OF AN OUTFLOW OF A DISTURBED AREA NOT
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS THAT IS FAVORED.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
THE CURRENT AND FORECAST SLOW MOVEMENT OF FREDDY REMAINS AN
AGGRAVATING FACTOR ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
STILL BE PRESENT TODAY AND TOMORROW NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF FREDDY.
* CONTINUATION OF THE EPISODE OF HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PROVINCE OF
ZAMBEZIE AND NORTHERN SOFALA. IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BETWEEN 200 AND
350 MM ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA.
-MALAWI:
THE RAINY EPISODE STARTS TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER 48 HOURS THAT
COULD REACH 200 TO 300 MM OVER THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY, LOCALLY MORE
OVER THE RELIEF. THE RAINIEST DAY SHOULD BE MONDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 121157
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 081/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/03/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 36.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/13 AT 00 UTC:
16.9 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/13 AT 12 UTC:
16.6 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT RE-INTENSIFICATION ON THE SEA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120637
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 83/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 12/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 36.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 285 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 0

24H: 13/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 13/03/2023 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 14/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 14/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 15/03/2023 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2023 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A DISPARUE DEPUIS PLUS DE 2 HEURES, MAIS
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ET LA CIRCULATION RESTENT ENCORE BIEN
PRESENTES, PROCHE DU CENTRE. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MESUREES SUR
TERRE, IL EST DIFFICILE D'ESTIMER L'INTENSITE DES VENTS MAIS AU VU
DES ANIMATIONS SATELLITES ET ETANT DONNE LA CONFIGURATION DU TERRAIN
(PLAINE) LA CIRCULATION SEMBLE ENCORE BIEN MARQUEE. AVEC LA PASSE
MICRO-ONDE DE 0137UTC, ON PEUT NOTER TOUTEFOIS UNE BAISSE NOTABLE DE
LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES ET UNE ESTIMATION DE 50KT EST DONC
FAITE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE ET LA DENOMINATION DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE EST ENCORE GARDEE POUR FREDDY ALORS QU'IL EST SUR TERRE
DEPUIS 12 HEURES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION, FREDDY VA CONTINUER SON
DEPLACEMENT LENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE JUSQU'A LUNDI EN JOURNEE AVANT UN
RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA DORSALE AU
SUD-OUEST S'ELOIGNE ET UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EN BASSES TROPOSHERE
DEVRAIT REDIRIGER LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL VERS LE SUD-EST AVEC UNE
POSSIBLE RESSORTIE EN MER VERS LE MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. LA
PREVISION CMRS RESTE BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES LES
MIEUX CALES SUR LA SITUATION ACTUELLE, EN EXCLUANT LES GUIDANCES TROP
RAPIDES OU RESTANTES TROP SUR MER.

FREDDY CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR SUR TERRE BIEN QUE RESISTANT
NOTABLEMENT DU FAIT DU RELIEF PROCHE DE SON CENTRE. SI L'HYPOTHESE
D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER SE CONFIRME, LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUE
N'APPARAISSENT TOUTEFOIS PAS FAVORABLES A UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION
SELON L'EVOLUTION ENVISAGEE. EN EFFET DES MARDI, LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL (PROFOND ET MOYEN) DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST AUGMENTE
SENSIBLEMENT EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT D'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AYANT AUSSI BIEN DIMINUE (BIEN
QUE DES POCHES DE POTENTIEL ENRGETIQUE SUFFISANT SONT ENCORE
PRESENTES DANS LE CANAL), AUCUNE RE-INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE
N'EST POUR L'INSTANT SUGGEREE ET C'EST LE SCENARIO D'UNE RESSORTIE EN
MER D'UNE ZONE PERTURBEE NON ACCOMPAGNEE DE VENTS FORT QUI EST
PRIVILEGIE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LE DEPLACEMENT LENT ACTUEL ET PREVU DE FREDDY RESTE UN PARAMETRE
AGGRAVANT SUR LES IMPACTS ATTENDUS.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* LES CONDITIONS DE TEMPETE PRES DU CENTRE PERSISTENT CE MATIN AVANT
DE S'ESTOMPER CET APRES-MIDI. LES CONDITIONS DE COUP DE VENT
PERSISTENT SUR TOUTE LA JOURNEE LE LONG DES COTES LES PLUS PROCHES
AVANT DE S'ESTOMPER LA NUIT PROCHAINE. AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN DE
FORTES RAFALES DE VENT (POUVANT DEPASSER 100 KM/H) VONT PERSISTER
PRES DU CENTRE ET DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DE FREDDY.
* LA MER TRES FORTE (VAGUES DE 4M A 5M) S'AMORTISSANT EN FIN DE
JOURNEE.
* POURSUITE DE L'EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES SUR LA PROVINCE DU
ZAMBEZIE. ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H ENTRE 100 ET 150 MM SUR
LE LITTORAL IMPACTE ET GLOBALEMENT ENTRE 200 A 300 MM DANS
L'INTERIEUR (PROVINCES DU ZAMBEZIE ET NORD SOFALA). DANS LES 72H,
ENTRE 400 ET 500 MM ATTENDUS SUR L'INTERIEUR DE LA PROVINCE DE
ZAMBEZIE PRINCIPALEMENT.
-MALAWI:
L'EPISODE PLUVIEUX DEMARRE CE DIMANCHE AVEC DES CUMULS SUR 72H
POUVANT ATTEINDRE 400 A 500 MM SUR LE SUD DU PAYS, LOCALEMENT PLUS
SUR LE RELIEF (CUMULS SUR LES PROCHAINES 24H, DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 200
MM). LA JOURNEE LA PLUS PLUVIEUSE DEVRAIT ETRE CELLE DE LUNDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120637
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 83/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 36.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/12 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 0

24H: 2023/03/13 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/03/13 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/03/14 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/03/14 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/03/15 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/16 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS DISAPPEARED SINCE MORE THAN 2 HOURS, BUT
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE CIRCULATION ARE STILL VERY PRESENT,
CLOSE TO THE CENTER. IN THE ABSENCE OF DATA MEASURED ON THE GROUND,
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS BUT
CONSIDERING THE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS AND GIVEN THE CONFIGURATION OF
THE LANDSCAPE (PLAIN) THE CIRCULATION STILL SEEMS WELL MARKED. WITH
THE MICROWAVE PASS OF 0137UTC, WE CAN NOTE HOWEVER A NOTABLE DECREASE
OF THE LOW LAYER CIRCULATION AND AN ESTIMATE OF 50KT IS THUS MADE AT
THE PRESENT TIME AND THE DENOMINATION OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM IS
STILL KEPT FOR FREDDY WHEREAS IT IS ON GROUND SINCE 12 HOURS.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST, FREDDY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW NORTHWESTERLY
MOVEMENT DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY BEFORE SLOWING DOWN.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST IS MOVING AWAY AND
A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TROPOSPHERE SHOULD REDIRECT THE
RESIDUAL MINIMUM TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST WITH A POSSIBLE EXIT INTO THE
SEA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST REMAINS BASED
ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION,
EXCLUDING GUIDANCE THAT IS TOO FAST OR REMAINS TOO OFFSHORE.

FREDDY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON LAND, ALTHOUGH RESISTING SIGNIFICANTLY
DUE TO THE RELIEF NEAR ITS CENTER. IF THE HYPOTHESIS OF AN OUTBURST
AT SEA IS CONFIRMED, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DO NOT SEEM TO BE
FAVORABLE TO A RE-INTENSIFICATION ACCORDING TO THE EVOLUTION
ENVISAGED. INDEED, FROM TUESDAY, THE VERTICAL SHEAR (DEEP AND MEDIUM)
FROM WEST TO NORTH-WEST IS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY, ACCOMPANIED BY
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL
HAVING ALSO DECREASED (ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT ENERGETIC
POTENTIAL ARE STILL PRESENT IN THE CHANNEL), NO SIGNIFICANT
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SUGGESTED FOR THE MOMENT AND IT IS THE SCENARIO
OF AN OUTFLOW OF A DISTURBED ZONE NOT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS
THAT IS FAVORED.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
THE CURRENT AND FORECAST SLOW MOVEMENT OF FREDDY REMAINS AN
AGGRAVATING FACTOR ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* STORM CONDITIONS NEAR THE CENTER AND ON THE COASTAL AREA PERSIST
THIS MORNING BEFORE FADING THIS AFTERNOON. GALE CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG THE NEAREST COASTLINE BEFORE FADING
OVERNIGHT. TODAY AND TOMORROW STRONG WIND GUSTS (UP TO 100 KM/H) WILL
PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF FREDDY.
* THE VERY STRONG SEA (WAVES OF 4M TO 5M) IN THE MORNING DAMPING DOWN
AT THE END OF THE DAY.
* CONTINUATION OF THE EPISODE OF HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PROVINCE OF
ZAMBEZIE. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BETWEEN 100 AND 150 MM ARE EXPECTED
ON THE IMPACTED COAST AND BETWEEN 200 AND 300 MM IN THE INTERIOR
(ZAMBEZIE AND NORTHERN SOFALA PROVINCES). WITHIN 72 HOURS, BETWEEN
400 AND 500 MM EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR OF ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE
MAINLY.
-MALAWI:
THE RAINY EPISODE STARTS TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER 72 HOURS THAT
COULD REACH 400 TO 500 MM OVER THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY, LOCALLY MORE
OVER THE RELIEF (ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IN THE ORDER
OF 100 TO 200 MM). THE RAINIEST DAY SHOULD BE MONDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 120559
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 080/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/03/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 36.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
17.1 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/13 AT 06 UTC:
16.7 S / 35.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
SLOWLY EASING OF SEA AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE MOZAMBIC SHORE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120056
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 82/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 36.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 285 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 360 SO: 260 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 13/03/2023 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 0

36H: 13/03/2023 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 0

48H: 14/03/2023 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 14/03/2023 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 15/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2023 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

120H: 17/03/2023 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A BIEN RESISTE CETTE NUIT MALGRE LE PARCOURS
TERRESTE. LA GEOGRAPHIE DE LA ZONE (PLAINE COTIERE SANS VRAIMENT DE
RELIEF) EXPLIQUE AU MOINS EN PARTIE CETTE RESISTANCE. L'OEIL COMMENCE
TOUTEFOIS A PERDRE DE SA DEFINITION JUSTE AVANT 00Z. L'INTENSITE EST
ABAISSE A UN INCERTAIN 65 KT EN FAISANT L'HYPOTHESE D'UN COEUR
CENTRAL AFFAIBLI MAIS ENCORE BIEN CONSTITUE AU VUE DE L'IMAGERIE
CLASSIQUE.

FREDDY CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST PILOTE PAR LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE JUSQU'A LUNDI EN JOURNEE AVANT UN
RALENTISSEMENT DU DEPLACEMENT. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA DORSALE AU
SUD-OUEST S'ELOIGNE ET UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EN BASSES TROPOSHERE
DEVRAIT REDIRIGER LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL VERS LE SUD-EST AVEC UNE
POSSIBLE RESSORTIE EN MER VERS LE MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.
L'ARRIVEE SUR TERRE RECENTE A PERMIS DE RECALER LES GUIDANCES ET DE
DONNER MOINS DE CREDIT A CELLES QUI LAISSAIENT ENCORE LE CYCLONE EN
MER A 00Z. LA PREVISION CMRS RESTE BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
GUIDANCES LES MIEUX CALES SUR LA SITUATION ACTUELLE.

FREDDY S'AFFAIBLIT ACTUELLEMENT SUR TERRE PAR MANQUE D'ENERGIE ET PAR
FROTTEMENT AVEC LES TERRES. SI L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER SE
CONFIRME, LES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUE N'APPARAISSENT TOUTEFOIS PAS
FAVORABLES A UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION SELON L'EVOLUTION ENVISAGEE AUSSI
BIEN PAR IFS QUE GFS. EN EFFET DES MARDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
(PROFOND ET MOYEN) DE SECTEUR OUEST A NORD-OUEST AUGMENTE
SENSIBLEMENT EN S'ACCOMPAGNANT D'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE (SANS COMPTER QU'IL POURRAIT REPASSER SUR DES EAUX QU'IL
A LUI MEME REFROIDIE). AUCUNE RE-INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE N'EST
POUR L'INSTANT SUGGEREE ET C'EST LE SCENARIO D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER
D'UNE ZONE PERTURBEE NON ACCOMPAGNEE DE VENTS FORT QUI EST
PRIVILEGIE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LE DEPLACEMENT LENT ACTUEL ET PREVU DE FREDDY RESTE UN PARAMETRE
AGGRAVANT SUR LES IMPACTS ATTENDUS.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* LES CONDITIONS OURAGAN PRES DU CENTRE S'ESTOMPENT DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES. LES CONDITIONS DE TEMPETE PRES DU CENTRE ET SUR LA
ZONE COTIERE IMPACTEE PERSISTENT CE MATIN AVANT DE S'ESTOMPER CET
APRES-MIDI. LES CONDITIONS DE COUP DE VENT PERSISTENT SUR TOUTE LA
JOURNEE LE LONG DES COTES LES PLUS PROCHES AVANT DE S'ESTOMPER LA
NUIT PROCHAINE. AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN DE FORTES RAFALES DE VENT
(POUVANT DEPASSER 100 KM/H) VONT PERSISTER PRES DU CENTRE ET DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD DE FREDDY.
* LA MER RESTE TRES FORTE (VAGUES DE 4M A 5M) EN MATINEE AVANT
AMORTISSEMENT EN FIN DE JOURNEE.FIN DU RISQUE DE SURCOTE.
* POURSUITE DE L'EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES SUR LA PROVINCE DU
ZAMBEZIE. ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H ENTRE 100 ET 150 MM SUR
LE LITTORAL IMPACTE ET GLOBALEMENT ENTRE 200 A 300 MM DANS
L'INTERIEUR (PROVINCES DU ZAMBEZIE ET NORD SOFALA). DANS LES 72H,
ENTRE 400 ET 500 MM ATTENDUS SUR L'INTERIEUR DE LA PROVINCE DE
ZAMBEZIE PRINCIPALEMENT.
-MALAWI:
L'EPISODE PLUVIEUX DEMARRE AUJOURD'HUI AVEC DES CUMULS SUR 72H
POUVANT ATTEINDRE 400 A 500 MM SUR LE SUD DU PAYS, LOCALEMENT PLUS
SUR LE RELIEF (CUMULS SUR LES PROCHAINES 24H, DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 200
MM). LA JOURNEE LA PLUS PLUVIEUSE DEVRAIT ETRE CELLE DE LUNDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120056
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 82/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 36.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/12 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 360 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2023/03/13 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 0

36H: 2023/03/13 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 0

48H: 2023/03/14 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/03/14 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/03/15 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/16 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

120H: 2023/03/17 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE EYE CONFIGURATION RESISTED WELL THIS NIGHT IN SPITE OF OVERLAND
TRACK. THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE AREA (COASTAL PLAIN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
MOUNTAIN) EXPLAINS AT LEAST PARTLY THIS RESISTANCE. THE EYE STARTS
HOWEVER TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION JUST BEFORE 00Z. THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO AN UNCERTAIN 65 KT BY MAKING THE HYPOTHESIS OF A WEAKENED
CENTRAL CORE BUT STILL WELL DEFINED ACCORDING TO THE CLASSICAL
IMAGERY.

FREDDY CONTINUES ITS SLOW NORTH-WESTERN MOVEMENT DRIVEN BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
TRAJECTORY SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MONDAY BEFORE SLOWING DOWN. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST WILL MOVE AWAY AND A
NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE SHOULD REDIRECT THE
REMNANT LOW TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST MAY MOVE BACK OVER WATERS AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RECENT ARRIVAL ON LAND HAS ALLOWED TO
RECALIBRATE THE GUIDANCE AND TO GIVE LESS CREDIT TO THOSE WHO STILL
LEFT THE CYCLONE AT SEA AT 00Z. THE RSMC FORECAST IS STILL BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MOST ACCURATE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CURRENT
SITUATION.

FREDDY IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING ON LAND DUE TO LACK OF ENERGY AND
FRICTION WITH THE LAND. IF THE HYPOTHESIS OF AN OUTBURST AT SEA IS
CONFIRMED, THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DO NOT SEEM TO BE FAVOURABLE
FOR A RE-INTENSIFICATION ACCORDING TO THE EVOLUTION SUGGESTED BY BOTH
IFS AND GFS. INDEED, FROM TUESDAY, THE VERTICAL SHEAR (DEEP AND
MEDIUM) FROM WEST TO NORTH-WEST IS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY,
ACCOMPANIED BY INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE (NOT TO
MENTION THAT IT COULD PASS OVER WATERS THAT IT HAS COOLED ITSELF). NO
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SUGGESTED FOR THE MOMENT AND IT IS
THE SCENARIO OF AN OUTFLOW OF A DISTURBED AREA NOT ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WINDS THAT IS PREFERRED.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
THE CURRENT AND FORECAST SLOW MOVEMENT OF FREDDY REMAINS AN
AGGRAVATING FACTOR ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE CENTER WILL FADE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STORM CONDITIONS NEAR THE CENTER AND ON THE COASTAL AREA
PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE FADING THIS AFTERNOON. GALE CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG THE NEAREST COASTLINE BEFORE FADING
OVERNIGHT. TODAY AND TOMORROW STRONG WIND GUSTS (UP TO 100 KM/H) WILL
PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF FREDDY.
* THE SEA REMAINS VERY STRONG (WAVES OF 4M TO 5M) IN THE MORNING
BEFORE DAMPING DOWN AT THE END OF THE DAY.
* CONTINUATION OF THE EPISODE OF HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PROVINCE OF
ZAMBEZIE. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BETWEEN 100 AND 150 MM ARE EXPECTED
ON THE IMPACTED COAST AND BETWEEN 200 AND 300 MM IN THE INTERIOR
(ZAMBEZIE AND NORTHERN SOFALA PROVINCES). WITHIN 72 HOURS, BETWEEN
400 AND 500 MM EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR OF ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE
MAINLY.
-MALAWI:
THE RAINY EPISODE STARTS TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER 72 HOURS THAT
COULD REACH 400 TO 500 MM OVER THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY, LOCALLY MORE
OVER THE RELIEF (ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IN THE ORDER
OF 100 TO 200 MM). THE RAINIEST DAY SHOULD BE MONDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 120029
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 079/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 12/03/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 36.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/12 AT 12 UTC:
17.1 S / 36.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/13 AT 00 UTC:
16.9 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
SLOWLY EASING OF SEA AND WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE MOZAMBIC SHORE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111855
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 81/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 37.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 12/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 13/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 13/03/2023 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 14/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 14/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2023 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

120H: 16/03/2023 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SO: 335 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.5-

L'OEIL DE FREDDY A COMMENCE A TOUCHER LES COTES VERS 1330Z POUR SE
RETROUVER CENTRER SUR LA COTE VERS 1715Z. SI LA SIGNATURE DVORAK DU
SYSTEME A ETE ASSEZ STABLE A 4.5 DURANT TOUT L'APRES-MIDI (ET MEME
ENCORE ACTUELLEMENT ALORS QUE LE CENTRE EST QUASIMENT ENTIEREMENT SUR
TERRE), LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES BASEES SUR L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES
AINSI QUE L'ADT ET L'AIDT SUGGERENT UNE INTENSITE SENSIBLEMENT PLUS
FORTE. L'INTENSITE AU LANDFALL (ET A 12Z EGALEMENT) A DONC ETE
ESTIMEE A 85 KT / 960 HPA. ALORS QUE LE RAYON DE VENT MAX INTEARGIT
DEPUIS MAINTENANT DEPUIS PLUSIEURS HEURES AVEC LA TERRE, L'INTENSITE
A 18Z EST LEGEREMENT ABAISSEE A 80 KT.

L'ARRIVEE SUR TERRE RECENTE A PERMIS DE RECALER LES GUIDANCES ET DE
DONNER MOINS DE CREDIT A CELLE (DONT GFS/12Z) QUI LAISSAIT ENCORE LE
CYCLONE BIEN EN MER A 18Z. LA PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES LES MIEUX CALES SUR LA SITUATION
ACTUELLE. AVEC UN FLUX DIRECTEUR QUI VA GRADUELLEMENT DESCENDDRE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DES PROCHAINES 36H VA ETRE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE
FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, DEVRAIT
PRENDRE L'ASCENDANT ET FAVORISER UN RETOUR DU SYSTEME SUR LES EAUX DU
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE.

FREDDY S'AFFAIBLIT SUR TERRE SUR UN PARCOURS QUI S'ANNONCE SUR
PLUSIEURS JOURS. SI L'HYPOTHESE D'UNE RESSORTIE EN MER SE CONFIRME EN
PREMIERE PARTIE DE SEMAINE, LES CONDITIONS N'APPARAISSENT PAS
FAVORABLES A UNE FRANCHE RE-INTENSIFICATION POUR L'INSTANT AVEC DU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE A DES ADVECTIONS D'AIR
SEC (SANS COMPTER QU'IL POURRAIT REPASSER SUR DES EAUX QU'IL A LUI
MEME REFROIDIE). AUCUNE RE-INTENSIFICATION SIGNIFICATIVE N'EST POUR
L'INSTANT SUGGEREE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LE DEPLACEMENT LENT ACTUEL ET PREVU DE FREDDY RESTE UN PARAMETRE
AGGRAVANT SUR LES IMPACTS ATTENDUS.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* CONDITION OURAGAN PRES DU CENTRE AU COURS DES 6 PROCHAINES HEURES.
CONDITIONS DE TEMPETE PRES DU CENTRE JUSQU'A DEMAIN MATIN. LES
CONDITIONS DE COUP DE VENT PERSISTENT SUR TOUTE LA JOURNEE LE LONG
DES COTES LES PLUS PROCHES.
* MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE (VAGUES DE 8 A 10M) ENCORE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES HEURES PUIS DEBUT D'AMORTISSEMENT AVANT LA FIN DE NUIT. LA
MER RESTE TRES FORTE (VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M) EN MATINEE DE DEMAIN
AVANT AMORTISSEMENT EN FIN DE JOURNEE. UNE SURCOTE ESTIMA E ENTRE 2M
ET 2M50 EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE AU NIVEAU
DE QUELIMANE. AMELIORATION ATTENDUE DEMAIN.
* POURSUITE DE L'EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES SUR LA PROVINCE DU
ZAMBEZIE. ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H ENTRE 200 ET 300 MM SUR
LE PROCHE LITTORAL ET GLOBALEMENT ENTRE 100 / 200 MM DANS L'INTERIEUR
(PROVINCES DU ZAMBEZIE ET NORD SOFALA). DANS LES 72H, ENTRE 400 ET
500 MM ATTENDUS SUR L'INTERIEUR DE LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZIE
PRINCIPALEMENT.
-MALAWI:
L'EPISODE PLUVIEUX DEMARRE DIMANCHE AVEC DES CUMULS SUR 72H POUVANT
ATTEINDRE 300 A 500 MM SUR LE SUD DU PAYS (CUMULS EN 24H ATTENDUS DE
L'ODRE DE 100 A 200 MM)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111855
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 81/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 37.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/12 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2023/03/12 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 325 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2023/03/13 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/03/13 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/03/14 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/03/14 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/15 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

120H: 2023/03/16 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.5-

THE EYE OF FREDDY STARTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND 1330Z TO BE
CENTERED ON THE COAST AROUND 1715Z. IF THE DVORAK SIGNATURE OF THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUITE STABLE AT 4.5 DURING THE WHOLE AFTERNOON (AND
EVEN NOW WHILE THE CENTER IS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON LAND), OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS ADT AND AIDT SUGGEST
A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY AT THE LANDFALL (AND
AT 12Z AS WELL) HAS BEEN ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KT / 960 HPA. WHILE THE
MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS HAS BEEN PARTLY OVERLAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW,
THE INTENSITY AT 18Z IS SLIGHTLY LOWERED TO 80 KT.

THE RECENT ARRIVAL ON LAND HAS ALLOWED TO RECALIBRATE THE GUIDANCE
AND TO GIVE LESS CREDIT TO THE ONE (INCLUDING GFS/12Z) WHICH STILL
LET THE CYCLONE WELL AT SEA AT 18Z. THE CMRS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. WITH A
STEERING FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND, THE TRAJECTORY OF THE NEXT
36H WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR SHOULD TAKE THE UPPER
HAND AND FAVOUR A RETURN OF THE SYSTEM TO THE WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

FREDDY IS WEAKENING ON LAND ON A COURSE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. IF THE HYPOTHESIS OF A RETURN TO THE SEA IS CONFIRMED
IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, THE CONDITIONS DO NOT SEEM TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FRANK RE-INTENSIFICATION FOR THE MOMENT WITH VERTICAL
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH ADVECTIONS OF DRY AIR (NOT TO
MENTION THAT IT COULD PASS AGAIN OVER WATERS THAT IT HAS COOLED
ITSELF). NO SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SUGGESTED AT THIS TIME.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
THE CURRENT AND FORECAST SLOW MOVEMENT OF FREDDY REMAINS AN
AGGRAVATING FACTOR ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* HURRICANE CONDITIONS NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS. STORM
CONDITIONS NEAR THE CENTER UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG THE NEAREST COASTS.
* HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS (8 TO 10M WAVES) STILL DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE SEA
REMAINS VERY ROUGH (WAVES OF MORE THAN 4M) IN THE MORNING OF TOMORROW
BEFORE DAMPING AT THE END OF THE DAY. A SURGE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 2M
AND 2M50 IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING ZONE AT QUELIMANE. IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED TOMORROW.
* HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BETWEEN 200 AND 300 MM ARE EXPECTED ON THE NEAR COAST AND GLOBALLY
BETWEEN 100 / 200 MM IN THE INTERIOR (ZAMBEZIE AND NORTH SOFALA
PROVINCES). WITHIN 72 HOURS, BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MM EXPECTED OVER THE
INTERIOR OF ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE MAINLY.
-MALAWI:
THE RAINY EPISODE STARTED ON SUNDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER 72H THAT
COULD REACH 300 TO 500 MM OVER THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY
(ACCUMULATIONS IN 24H EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100 TO 200 MM)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 111822
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 078/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/03/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 37.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
17.2 S / 35.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1715Z ALONG MOZAMBIQUE SHORE
ABOUT 15 NM EAST OF QUELIMANE. ESTIMATED INTENSITY: 85 KT/960HPA=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 80/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 37.3 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2023 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 165 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 12/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 13/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 360 SO: 240 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 220 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 0

60H: 14/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 0

72H: 14/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SO: 425 NO: 205

120H: 16/03/2023 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SO: 465 NO: 280

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5-

PEU APRA S LE RA SEAU DE 06Z, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN A IL DE
FREDDY A PERDU DE SA SUPERBE. EN EFFET, LA A IL A PERDU
GRADUELLEMENT EN DEFINITION AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT
EGALEMENT RECHAUFFES, LAISSANT UN DT INSTANTANA DE L'ORDRE DE 4.5
JUSQU'A 8Z. APRES CELA ON A OBSERVE A NOUVEAU UNE EMBELLIE DE LA
CONFIGURATION AVEC LE RETOUR A UN OEIL MIEUX DEFINI, PLUS LARGE,
AVEC DES BURSTS CONVECTIFS ADOPTANT UNE BELLE COURBURE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD, ET DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX PLUS FROIDS ENSERRANT LE MUR
DE L'OEIL. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT POURRAIT S'EXPLIQUER NON SEULEMENT PAR
SON FAIBLE DEPLACEMENT ACTUEL, GENERANT DE L'UPWELLING, PROPICE AU
REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS-JACENTES, OU ENCORE LE TILT DE LA
STRUCTURE COMME LE MONTRE LA PASSE GMI GPM PARTIELLE DE 0954 Z OU
ENCORE LA PASSE AMSR-2 TOTALE DE 1116Z, AVEC UN CENTRE EN 37GHZ
DEPORTA LEGEREMENT AU SUD PAR RAPPORT A LA MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
(85GHZ). CE DEPORT POURRAIT S'EXPLIQUER PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE
CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SUD EN MOYENNE TROPO. MALGRE CES SIGNES
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, L'INTENSITE EST TOUJOURS ESTIMEE A 80KT, PAR
INERTIE MAIS EGALEMENT CONFORTE PAR LE MAINTIEN D'UNE SOLIDE
STRUCTURE DE L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF OBSERVEE PAR LA DERNIERE PASSE AMSR-2
ET EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES.

EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE TIMING DE L'ATTERRISSAGE
EST LEGEREMENT RETARDE POUR LA MATINA E DE DIMANCHE MAIS L'ENSEMBLE
DE LA TRACK GARDE GLOBALEMENT LA MEME PHILOSOPHE QUE LE RESEAU
PRECEDENT. LES DIFFERENTS MODELES S'ACCORDENT SUR UNE LENTE DERIVE
VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ENTRE LA DORSALE CENTRA E A
L'OUEST SUR L'AFRIQUE ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU NORD
DU SYSTEME. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES DIFFERENT CEPENDANT ASSEZ
FRANCHEMENT SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT INDUISANT ENCORE DE GRANDS
ECARTS SUR LE TIMING DE L'ATTERRISSAGE. AINSI ON PEUT CONSTATER QUE
GFS PEINE ENCORE A FAIRE RENTRER FREDDY SUR LES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES,
ALORS QUE LE MODELE EUROPEEN PROPOSE UN ATTERRISSAGE PLUS FRANC
DEMAIN AVEC UN RETOUR EN MER EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. LA
PREVISION CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE TOUJOURS IMPORTANTE A
L'INSTAR DES RESEAUX PRECEDENTS, INDUISANT UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE DU SYSTEME ET LE TIMING DE L'ATTERRISSAGE.
TOUTEFOIS LA PRESENTE PREVISION PROPOSE UN ATTERRISSAGE DIMANCHE
MATIN SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE DANS LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE A
PROXIMITE DE QUELIMANE. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, AU COURS DE LA
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE, DEVRAIT PRENDRE L'ASCENDANT ET FAVORISER UN RETOUR DU
SYSTEME, SUR LES EAUX DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, A COURT TERME, MALGRA UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, LA PRA SENCE DE LA CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE MOYENNE TROPO,
CUMULE AU FAIBLE DEPLACEMENT DE FREDDY POURRAIT CONDUIRE A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT LIE A UN DEFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX CHAUDES
SOUS-JACENTES. AINSI, FREDDY POURRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR LENTEMENT AU COURS
DES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES, MAIS TOUT EN RESTANT AU STADE RESPECTABLE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. CETTE HYPOTHESE EST GLOBALEMENT SUGGEREE PAR LES
DERNIERES GUIDANCES, HORMIS LE MODELE AMERICAIN HWRF RESTANT ISOLA .
PAR LA SUITE A PARTIR DE DEMAIN DIMANCHE, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR
LORS DE SON TRANSIT SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE, AVANT UN POSSIBLE
RETOUR SUR LES EAUX DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE. L'INTENSITE ENVISAGEE POUR LE SYSTEME RESTE POUR LE MOMENT
DELICAT A PREVOIR AU VU DE LA DISPERSION CONSTATEE DES MODELES, ET
SUROUT SUR L'A VOLUTION A COURT TERME DU SYSTEME.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
L'IMPACT DE FREDDY EST CONTENU DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT LENT VA AMPLIFIER SON INFLUENCE, PROCHE
DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* PRESENCE DE VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE SUR LA FRANGE MARITIME DU
ZAMBEZE DAVANTAGE PRA SENTS EN MATINA E DE DIMANCHE. VENTS DE FORCE
OURAGAN PROBABLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
* MER TRES FORTE (4 A 6M) EN COURS DEVENANT PONCTUELLEMENT GROSSE AU
COURS DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE AU LARGE DES PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE ET DE
SOFALA . UNE SURCOTE ESTIMA E ENTRE 2M ET 2M50 EST POSSIBLE A
PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE AU NIVEAU DE QUELIMANE, VOIRE
LOCALEMENT 3M A 3M50 A L'EMBOUCHURE DE LA RIVIA RE EPONYME.
AMELIORATION ATTENDUE EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.
* POURSUITE DE L'EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES SUR LA PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE.
ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H ENTRE 300 ET 400 MM SUR LE PROCHE
LITTORAL ET GLOBALEMENT ENTRE 100 / 200 MM DANS L'INTERIEUR
(PROVINCES DU ZAMBEZE ET NORD SOFALA). DANS LES 72H, ENTRE 100 ET 300
MM REPARTIS POSSIBLEMENT SUR LES DEUX PROVINCES MENTIONNA ES
CI-DESSUS AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANTS ATTEINDRE LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 500
MM, Y COMPRIS SUR LA SUD DU MALAWI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 80/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 37.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/12 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/12 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/13 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 360 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2023/03/13 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0

60H: 2023/03/14 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 0

72H: 2023/03/14 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/15 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SW: 425 NW: 205

120H: 2023/03/16 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SW: 465 NW: 280

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5-

SHORTLY AFTER 06Z, THE FREDDY'S EYE CLOUD PATTERN HAS LOST ITS
BEAUTY. INDEED, THE EYE GRADUALLY LOST DEFINITION WITH CLOUDY TOPS
THAT ALSO WARMED UP, LEAVING AN INSTANTANEOUS DT OF ABOUT 4.5 UNTIL
8Z. AFTER THAT, WE OBSERVED AGAIN AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN
WITH THE RETURN TO A BETTER DEFINED EYE, WIDER, WITH CONVECTIVE
BURSTS ADOPTING A NICE CURVATURE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND
COOLER CLOUDY TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE WALL. THIS WEAKENING COULD BE
EXPLAINED NOT ONLY BY ITS CURRENT WEAK DISPLACEMENT, GENERATING
UPWELLING, FAVOURABLE TO THE COOLING OF THE UNDERLYING WATERS, OR BY
THE TILT OF THE STRUCTURE AS SHOWN BY THE PARTIAL GMI GPM PASS OF
0954 Z OR THE TOTAL AMSR-2 PASS OF 1116Z, WITH A CENTER IN 37GHZ
SLIGHTLY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH WITH RESPECT TO THE MEAN TROPOSPHERE
(85GHZ). THIS SHIFT COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE
SOUTHERN CONSTRAINT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. IN SPITE OF THESE SIGNS
OF WEAKENING, THE INTENSITY IS STILL ESTIMATED AT 80KT, BY INERTIA
BUT ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MAINTENANCE OF A SOLID STRUCTURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE RING OBSERVED BY THE LAST AMSR-2 RUN AND IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LAST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE TIMING OF THE LANDING IS SLIGHTLY
DELAYED FOR SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE WHOLE TRACK KEEPS GLOBALLY THE
SAME PHILOSOPHY AS THE PREVIOUS NETWORK. THE DIFFERENT MODELS AGREE
ON A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS WEST-NORTH-WEST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, BETWEEN THE
RIDGE CENTERED WEST OVER AFRICA AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS HOWEVER QUITE
FRANKLY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT INDUCING STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES ON
THE TIMING OF THE LANDING. SO WE CAN SEE THAT GFS IS STILL STRUGGLING
TO BRING FREDDY INLAND IN MOZAMBIQUE, WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL
PROPOSES A MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD LANDING TOMORROW WITH A RETURN TO THE
SEA IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHOSE DISPERSION IS
STILL IMPORTANT, LIKE THE PREVIOUS RUNS, LEADING TO A HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE FINAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF THE
LANDING. HOWEVER, THE PRESENT FORECAST PROPOSES A LANDING ON SUNDAY
MORNING ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST IN THE PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZE NEAR
QUELIMANE. IN THE LONGER TERM, OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DRIVEN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, SHOULD TAKE THE LEAD AND
FAVOR A RETURN OF THE SYSTEM, ON THE WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IN THE SHORT TERM, DESPITE A GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, THE PRESENCE OF THE MODERATE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CONSTRAINT,
COMBINED WITH THE WEAK MOVEMENT OF FREDDY COULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING
DUE TO A COOLING OF THE UNDERLYING WARM WATERS. THUS, FREDDY COULD
WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT STILL REMAIN AT THE
RESPECTABLE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS HYPOTHESIS IS GLOBALLY
SUGGESTED BY THE LAST GUIDANCE, EXCEPT THE AMERICAN HWRF MODEL WHICH
REMAINS ISOLATED. THEREAFTER FROM TOMORROW SUNDAY, FREDDY SHOULD
WEAKEN DURING ITS TRANSIT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE LANDS, BEFORE A
POSSIBLE RETURN TO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WATERS IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE INTENSITY PROPOSED FOR THE SYSTEM REMAINS FOR THE
MOMENT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IN VIEW OF THE DISPERSION OBSERVED IN THE
MODELS, AND ESPECIALLY ON THE SHORT-TERM EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
THE IMPACT OF FREDDY IS CONTAINED BECAUSE OF THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM BUT THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL AMPLIFY ITS INFLUENCE, CLOSE TO THE
LANDING ZONE.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE MARITIME FRINGE OF ZAMBEZIA DISTRICT
MORE PRESENT ON SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE.
* VERY ROUGH SEA (4 TO 6M) IN PROGRESS BECOMING PUNCTUALLY HIGH
DURING THE NEXT NIGHT OFF ZAMBEZIA AND SOFALA REGIONS. A SURGE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 2M AND 2M50 IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING ZONE AT
QUELIMANE, EVEN LOCALLY 3M TO 3M50 AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER EPONYM.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN ZAMBEZIA DISTRICT. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BETWEEN 300 AND 400 MM ARE EXPECTED ON THE NEAR COAST AND BETWEEN 100
AND 200 MM IN THE INTERIOR (ZAMBEZIA AND NORTHERN SOFALA DISTRICTS).
WITHIN 72 HOURS, BETWEEN 100 AND 300 MM POSSIBLY SPREAD OVER THE TWO
REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH TOTALS THAT COULD REACH UP TO 500 MM
LOCALLY, INCLUDING OVER SOUTHERN MALAWI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 111206
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 077/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/03/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 37.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 20 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
18.1 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/12 AT 12 UTC:
18.0 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110655
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 79/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 37.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2023 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 12/03/2023 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 45

36H: 12/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 240 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 215 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0

72H: 14/03/2023 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2023 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 175 NO: 120

120H: 16/03/2023 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 155

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
AMELIOREE AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL MIEUX DEFINIE ET DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX FROIDS QUI SE SONT DAVANTAGE ORGANISA S EN BANDES AUTOUR DE
L'OEIL. CETTE AMELIORATION EST CONFORTEE PAR LA SSMIS F17 DE 0321Z
QUI PRESENTE DES TEMPERATURES DE BRILLANCE PLUS IMPORTANTES DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, PAR RAPPORT AUX
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES TRANSMISES PEU AVANT 00Z. A PRECISER EGALEMENT
QUE LA POSITION DU
CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES FOURNIE PAR LES 37 COLOR PERMETTENT DE
SITUER LE CENTRE LEGEREMENT PLUS AU SUD DU CENTRE SUGGERE PAR
L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE. L'ESTIMATION SUBJECTIVE
D'INTENSITE PERMET DE DEFINIR UN DT MOYENNE SUR 3 HEURES DE L'ORDRE
DE 5.5-. TOUTEFOIS LA PRISE EN COMPTE DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
SUBJECTIVES DES AGENCES AMERICAINES ET OBJECTIVES (AIDT ET ADT NOAA)
PLAIDENT POUR UNE INTENSITE DE L'ORDRE DE 80 KT, SOIT LEGEREMENT EN
DESSOUS DE L'ESTIMATION OBJECTIVE DVORAK.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, A L'ANALYSE ET POUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES
LES DIFFERENTS MODELES S'ACCORDENT SUR UNE LENTE DERIVE VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, ENTRE LA DORSALE CENTRA E A
L'OUEST SUR L'AFRIQUE ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE SITUEE AU NORD
DU SYSTEME.
LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES DIFFERENT ASSEZ FRANCHEMENT SUR LA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT INDUISANT ENCORE DE GRANDS ECARTS SUR LE TIMING DE
L'ATTERRISSAGE. SELON CETTE NOUVELLE PREVISION, FREDDY DEVRAIT
ATTERRIR DIMANCHE MATIN SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE DANS LA PROVINCE
DE ZAMBEZE A PROXIMITE DE QUELIMANE. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, AU COURS
DE LA SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE, DEVRAIT PRENDRE L'ASCENDANT ET FAVORISER UN
RETOUR DU SYSTEME, SUR LES EAUX DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA PREVISION
CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES MEILLEURES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES DONT LA DISPERSION RESTE TOUJOURS IMPORTANTE A L'INSTAR
DES RESEAUX PRECEDENTS, INDUISANT UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME ET LE TIMING DE L'ATTERRISSAGE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, MALGRA LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPO, ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, LE FAIBLE DEPLACEMENT DE
FREDDY POURRAIT CONDUIRE A DU UP-WELLINGET AINSI UN DEFROIDISSEMENT
DES EAUX CHAUDES SOUS-JACENTES. AINSI, FREDDY POURRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR
LENTEMENT AU COURS DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES, MAIS TOUT EN RESTANT AU
STADE RESPECTABLE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. CETTE HYPOTHESE EST SUGGEREE
PAR LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES, MAIS L'ATTEINTE PROBABLE DU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE RESTE ENCORE POSSIBLE
ET DEPENDRA ESSENTIELLEMENT DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT, A COURT
TERME DU SYSTEME,AINSI QUE DU TIMING DE LA ATTERRISSAGE. PAR LA
SUITE A PARTIR DE DEMAIN DIMANCHE, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR LORS DE
SON TRANSIT SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT LENT VA AMPLIFIER LES IMPACTS PROCHES DE
LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE IMMINENTE DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE. VENTS DE FORCE
OURAGAN PROBABLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE.
* MER TRES FORTE (4 A 6M) EN COURS DEVENANT PONCTUELLEMENT GROSSE
DIMANCHE AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE. UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 2M A
2M50 EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE AU NIVEAU DE
QUELIMANE.
* POURSUITE DE L'EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES SUR LA PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE.
ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H ENTRE 300 ET 400 MM SUR LE PROCHE
LITTORAL ET ENTRE 100 / 200 MM DANS L'INTERIEUR DE LA PROVINCE. DANS
LES 72H, PLUS DE 500 MM SUR LES PROVINCES DU ZAMBEZE ET LE NORD DE
SOFALA, AU PLUS PROCHE DU CA UR DU PHENOMENE.

-MALAWI:
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DES FORTES PLUIES LIEES A FREDDY SUR L'EXTREME SUD
DU PAYS EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE SE RENFORCANT EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE PLUS DE 100 A 200 MM ENVISAGES DANS
LES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110655
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 79/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 37.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/11 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/12 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/12 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 0

48H: 2023/03/13 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 0

60H: 2023/03/13 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2023/03/14 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/15 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 120

120H: 2023/03/16 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 155

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH A BETTER
DEFINED EYE PATTERN AND COOLER CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE MORE ORGANIZED IN
BANDS AROUND THE EYE. THIS IMPROVEMENT IS CONFIRMED BY THE 0321Z F17
SSMIS SHOWING HIGHER BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, COMPARED TO
THE MICROWAVE DATA TRANSMITTED SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT THE POSITION OF THE
CENTER PROVIDED BY THE 37 COLORS ALLOW TO LOCATE THE LLC SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTED BY THE CLASSICAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATION OF INTENSITY ALLOWS TO DEFINE AN
AVERAGE DT OVER 3 HOURS OF THE ORDER OF 5.5-. HOWEVER, TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FROM AMERICAN AGENCIES AND
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (AIDT AND ADT NOAA), THE INTENSITY IS OF THE ORDER
OF 80 KT, SLIGHTLY BELOW THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, ON ANALYSIS AND FOR THE SHORT TERM, THE VARIOUS
MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE,
BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF AFRICA AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE LAST GUIDANCE DIFFER QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT
INDUCING STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THE LANDING.
ACCORDING TO THIS NEW FORECAST, FREDDY SHOULD LAND ON SUNDAY MORNING
ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST IN THE PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZE NEAR QUELIMANE. IN
THE LONGER TERM, OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE UPPER HAND AND
FAVOR A RETURN OF THE SYSTEM TO THE WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, THE DISPERSION OF WHICH IS STILL IMPORTANT, AS IN THE CASE
OF PREVIOUS RUNS, LEADING TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF THE LANDING.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE THE DECREASE OF THE MID-VWSH, AND A
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, THE WEAK MOVEMENT OF FREDDY COULD LEAD TO
UP-WELLING AND THUS A COOLING OF THE UNDERLYING WARM WATERS. THUS,
FREDDY COULD WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT STILL REMAIN
AT THE RESPECTABLE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS HYPOTHESIS IS
SUGGESTED BY THE LAST GUIDANCE, BUT THE PROBABLE ACHIEVEMENT OF THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDING IS STILL
POSSIBLE AND WILL DEPEND ESSENTIALLY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT, IN THE
SHORT TERM OF THE SYSTEM, AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE LANDING.
THEREAFTER FROM TOMORROW SUNDAY, FREDDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING ITS
TRANSIT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE LANDS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM BUT THE SLOW MOTION WILL AMPLIFY IMPACTS NEAR THE LANDFALL
AREA.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IMMINENT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE.
* VERY ROUGH SEAS (4 TO 6M) IN PROGRESS BECOMING PUNCTUALLY HIGH SEAS
ON SUNDAY AT THE TIME OF LANDING. A SURGE OF ABOUT 2M TO 2M50 IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING ZONE AT QUELIMANE.
* THE HEAVY RAINS ARE CONTINUING OVER THE PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZE. IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WE EXPECT BETWEEN 300 AND 400 MM ON THE NEAR COAST AND
BETWEEN 100 AND 200 MM IN THE INTERIOR OF THE PROVINCE. IN THE NEXT
72 HOURS, MORE THAN 500 MM OVER ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND NORTHERN SOFALA,
THE CLOSEST TO THE HEART OF THE PHENOMENON.

-MALAWI:
* HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY MAY ARRIVE IN THE EXTREME SOUTH OF
THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL IN THE ORDER OF MORE THAN 100 TO 200 MM ENVISAGED IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 110623
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 076/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/03/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 37.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
18.2 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
18.1 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110052
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 78/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 37.8 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 12/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

36H: 12/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 130 NO: 0

48H: 13/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 14/03/2023 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

120H: 16/03/2023 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FREDDY
A CONTINUE DE S'AMELIOREE AVEC L'APPARITION D'UN POINT CHAUD AU SEIN
DU CDO EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE. LA RECENTE PASSE MICRO-ONDE AMSR2 DE
2307Z MONTRE LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI EN 37GHZ AINSI QU'UN
EGALEMENT EN 89GHZ MEME SI IL EST MOINS BIEN DEFINI. EN ACCORD AVEC
LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST DONC ANALYSEE A
75KT. LA POSITION A 00Z POURRAIT ETRE RECALEE AU SUD-OUEST DANS LA
LIMITE DES 20MN SUITE A L'ARRIVEE TARDIVE DES DONNEES AMSR2.

A COURTE ECHEANCE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES S'ACCORDENT SUR UNE LENTE
DERIVE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES. ILS DIFFERENT NEANMOINS SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT INDUISANT AINSI DE GRANDS ECARTS SUR LE TIMING DE
L'ATTERISSAGE. SELON CETTE NOUVELLE PREVISION, FREDDY DEVRAIT
ATTERRIR EN JOURNEE OU SOIREE DE SAMEDI SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE
DANS LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE A PROXIMITE DE QUELIMANE. MAIS
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE ENCORE PARTICULIEREMENT GRANDE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE
SUR CET ATTERISSAGE. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, POURRAIT REPRENDRE LE
DESSUS ET FAVORISER UN RETOUR EN MER DE LA CIRCULATION DE FREDDY.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO,
LES EAUX PLUS CHAUDES ET UNE MEILLEURE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
DEVRAIENT CONTINUER DE FAVORISER L'INTENSIFICATION DE FREDDY JUSQU'A
SON ATTERISSAGE. FREDDY POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE.
CETTE PREVISION RESTE INCERTAINE ET VA DEPENDRE DU TIMING DE LA
ATTERRISSAGE. SI FREDDY RALENTIT TROP AVANT D'ATTERIR, IL POURRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR PAR REFROIDISSEMENT DES EAUX SOUS JACENTES. PAR LA SUITE
AU COURS DU WEEK-END PROCHAIN, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR LORS DE SON
TRANSIT SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT LENT VA AMPLIFIER LES IMPACTS PROCHES DE
LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE IMMINENTE DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE. VENTS DE FORCE
OURAGAN PROBABLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE.
* MER GROSSE 6M EN COURS, DEVENANT TRES FORTE (4 A 6M) DIMANCHE. UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 2M50 A 3M50 EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE AU NIVEAU DE QUELIMANE.
* POURSUITE DE L'EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES SUR LA PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE.
ON ATTEND DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H, PLUS DE 100 A 200 MM SUR LES
PROVINCES DU ZAMBEZE ET LE NORD DE SOFALA, ET LOCALEMENT PLUS E
400-500 MM SUR LA ZONE PROCHE DU COEUR DU PHENOMENE.

-MALAWI:
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DES FORTES PLUIES LIEES A FREDDY SUR L'EXTREME SUD
DU PAYS EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI SE RENFORCANT DIMANCHE ET LUNDI. CUMULS
DE L'ORDRE DE PLUS DE 100 A 200 MM EN 48H ENVISAGES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110052
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 78/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 37.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/11 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/12 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

36H: 2023/03/12 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2023/03/13 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2023/03/13 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/03/14 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/15 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

120H: 2023/03/16 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE FREDDY CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF A WARM SPOT WITHIN THE CDO IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE
RECENT 2307Z AMSR2 PASS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A WELL DEFINED EYE IN
37GHZ AS WELL AS ONE IN 89GHZ EVEN IF IT IS LESS DEFINED. IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE ANALYZED AT 75KT. THE 00Z LOCATION COULD BE READJUSTED TO
THE SOUTH-WEST WITHIN THE 20NN RANGE DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF AMSR2
DATA.

AT SHORT RANGE THE DIFFERENT MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTH-WEST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS.
THEY DIFFER HOWEVER ON THE MOTION SPEED INDUCING BIG DIFFERENCES ON
THE TIMING OF THE LANDING. ACCORDING TO THIS NEW FORECAST, FREDDY
SHOULD LAND ON SATURDAY OR ITS EVENING ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE IN
THE ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE NEAR QUELIMANE. BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT, ON THIS LANDFALL. IN THE LONG TERM, THE
NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, COULD TAKE
OVER AND FAVOR A COMEBACK OVER SEA OF FREDDY'S CIRCULATION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DECREASE IN THE MEAN TROPICAL SHEAR, THE
WARMER WATERS AND A BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE
FAVORING THE INTENSIFICATION OF FREDDY UP TO THE LANDFALL. FREDDY
COULD THEREFORE REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE ITS
LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS PREDICTION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE LANDFALL. IF FREDDY
SLOWS DOWN TOO MUCH BEFORE ITS LANDFALL, IT MAY WEAKEN DUE TO THE
INDUCED COOLING OF THE WATER BENEATH. THEREAFTER OVER THE COMING
WEEKEND, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE LANDS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT THE SLOW MOTION WILL AMPLIFY THE IMPACTS NEAR THE LANDING
ZONE
- MOZAMBIQUE:
* IMMINENT ARRIVAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL.
* CURRENTLY BIG SEA 6M, BECOMING VERY ROUGH (4 TO 6M), ON SUNDAY. A
SURGE OF ABOUT 2M50 TO 3M50 IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING ZONE AT
QUELIMANE LEVEL.
* ONGOING HEAVY RAIN OVER ZAMBZE PROVINCE. IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS, MORE
THAN 100 TO 200 MM ARE EXPECTED OVER ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND NORTHERN
SOFALA, AND LOCALLY MORE THAN 400-500 MM OVER THE AREA NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE PHENOMENON.

-MALAWI:
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY DURING SATURDAY INCREASING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL OF MORE THAN 100 TO 200MM IN 48H ARE EXPECTED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 110024
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 075/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/03/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 37.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
18.0 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
17.9 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101936
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 77/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 38.3 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 11/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 30

36H: 12/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 12/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 13/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 15/03/2023 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DES BANDES INCURVEES ONT CONTINUE DE
S'ENROULER AUTOUR DU CENTRE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
SEMBLENT INDIQUER UNE LEGERE AMELIORATION DE LA COURBURE PROCHE DU
CENTRE (SSMIS DE 1608Z) MAIS CONTINUENT DE MONTRER LA PRESENCE D'AIR
SEC AU SEIN DU COEUR DE LA CIRCULATION, LIMITANT PROBABLEMENT
L'INTENSIFICATION. D'APRES LES DONNEES RECENTES ASCAT DE 1852Z, LA
POSITION DU CENTRE POURRAIT SE TROUVER PLUS AU SUD-OUEST DANS LA
LIMITE DES 20MN. ELLE SERA PROBABLEMENT REAJUSTE AU PROCHAIN RESEAU.
POUR L'INTENSITE, L'ANALYSE A 70KT SEMBLE PAR CONTRE CONFIRMER PAR LA
PRESENCE DE VENTS SUPERIEURS A 50KT SUR CETTE PASSE.

A COURTE ECHEANCE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES S'ACCORDENT SUR UNE LENTE
DERIVE VERS LE NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES. ILS DIFFERENT NEANMOINS SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT INDUISANT AINSI DE GRANDS ECARTS SUR LE TIMING DE
L'ATTERISSAGE. SELON CETTE NOUVELLE PREVISION, FREDDY DEVRAIT
ATTERRIR EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI PREVU SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE DANS
LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE A PROXIMITE DE QUELIMANE, MAIS L'INCERTITUDE
RESTE ENCORE PARTICULIEREMENT GRANDE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE. A PLUS
LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE, POURRAIT REPRENDRE LE DESSUS ET FAVORISER UN RETOUR EN
MER DE LA CIRCULATION DE FREDDY.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO,
LES EAUX PLUS CHAUDES ET UNE MEILLEURE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
DEVRAIENT FAVORISER L'INTENSIFICATION DE FREDDY DANS LES PROCHAINS 24
HEURES. FREDDY POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE
PREVISION RESTE INCERTAINE ET VA DEPENDRE DU TIMING DE LA
ATTERRISSAGE. PAR LA SUITE AU COURS DU WEEK-END PROCHAIN, FREDDY
DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR LORS DE SON TRANSIT SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT LENT VA AMPLIFIER LES IMPACTS PROCHES DE
LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE EN FIN DE NUIT OU
DEMAIN MATIN. VENTS OURAGAN PROBABLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 2M50 A 3M EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE AU NIVEAU DE QUELIMANE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE DEBUTANT EN COURS DE NUIT AVEC
L'APPROCHE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME DE LA COTE. SUR LES REGIONS DE
ZAMBEZIA ET SOFALA CUMULS ATTENDUS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 200 MM MAIS
PLUS MARQUES SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION DE ZAMBERIA LOCALEMENT AVEC PLUS
DE 400-500 MM SUR LA REGION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, PROCHE DU COEUR DU
PHENOMENE.

-MALAWI:
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DES FORTES PLUIES LIEES A FREDDY SUR L'EXTREME SUD
DU PAYS EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI SE RENFORCANT DIMANCHE ET LUNDI. CUMULS
DE L'ORDRE DE PLUS DE 100 MM MM EN 24H ENVISAGES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101936
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 77/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 38.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/11 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/11 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

36H: 2023/03/12 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2023/03/12 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2023/03/13 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2023/03/13 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/14 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/03/15 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CURVED BANDS CONTINUED TO WRAP AROUND THE
CENTER. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES SEEM TO INDICATE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CURVATURE NEAR THE CENTER (1608Z SSMIS) BUT
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR WITHIN THE CORE OF THE
CIRCULATION, PROBABLY LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION. ACCORDING TO THE
RECENT 1852Z ASCAT DATA, THE POSITION OF THE CENTER COULD BE MORE
SOUTHWEST IN THE 20MN LIMIT. IT WILL PROBABLY BE READJUSTED DURING
THE NEXT RUN. FOR THE INTENSITY, THE ANALYSIS AT 70KT SEEMS TO BE
CONFIRMED BY THE PRESENCE OF WINDS GREATER THAN 50KT ON THIS PASS.

AT SHORT RANGE THE DIFFERENT MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTH-WEST, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. THEY
DIFFER HOWEVER ON THE MOTION SPEED INDUCING BIG DIFFERENCES ON THE
TIMING OF THE LANDING. ACCORDING TO THIS NEW FORECAST, FREDDY SHOULD
LAND ON SATURDAY ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE IN THE ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE
NEAR QUELIMANE, BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
IN THE LONGER TERM, THE NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, COULD TAKE OVER AND FAVOR A COMEBACK OVER SEA OF
FREDDY'S CIRCULATION.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DECREASE IN THE MEAN TROPICAL SHEAR, THE
WARMER WATERS AND A BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR THE
INTENSIFICATION OF FREDDY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FREDDY COULD
THEREFORE REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE ITS
LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS PREDICTION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER
OVER THE COMING WEEKEND, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE LANDS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT THE SLOW MOTION WILL AMPLIFY THE IMPACTS NEAR THE LANDING
ZONE
- MOZAMBIQUE:
* ARRIVAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR TOMMOROW
MORNING. HURRICANE WINDS LIKELY IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
CENTER.
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH A SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO BIG
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A SURGE OF ABOUT
2M50 TO 3M IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING ZONE AT QUELIMANE LEVEL.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO START OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM CORE
CLOSING ON THE COAST. OVER ZAMBEZIA AND SOFALA REGIONS EXPECTED
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE ORDER OF 100 TO 200 MM BUT MORE MARKED OVER
THE SOUTH OF ZAMBERIA REGION LOCALLY WITH MORE THAN 400-500 MM OVER
THE LANDING AREA, CLOSE TO THE CORE OF THE PHENOMENON.

-MALAWI:
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY DURING SATURDAY INCREASING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL OF MORE THAN 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 101820
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 074/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/03/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 38.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
17.8 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
17.6 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 15 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101304
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 76/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 38.1 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 315 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 11/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 12/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 12/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 0

60H: 13/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 0

72H: 13/03/2023 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2023 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 15/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, UN OEIL MAL DEFINI EST APPARU SUR
L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE, MAIS A TEMPORAIREMENT DISPARU SUR LES TOUTES
DERNIERES IMAGES. LES SOMMETS CONVECTIFS SONT RESTES TRES FROIDS.
EN ABSENCE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES IL EST DIFFICILE DE JUGER
DE L'EVOLUTION DU COEUR DU SYSTEME.
L'INTENSITE DE FREDDY EST ESTIMEE A 70KT.

TOUJOURS AUTANT DE DIFFERENCES ENTRE LES GUIDANCES QUI S'EXPLIQUENT
PAR LA COMBINAISON D'EFFETS CONTRADICTOIRES DES DEUX DORSALES
(SUBTROPICALE ET PROCHE EQUATORIALE). PREDOMINANCE OU NON DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR L'AFRIQUE QUI PILOTE PLUS OU MOINS
LE FLUX DIRECTEUR SUR FREDDY.
UN RALENTISSEMENT EST CEPENDANT PREVU PLUS PRONONCE ENCORE QUE
PRECEDEMENT AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT ACTUEL DE FREDDY UN PEU PLUS VERS LE
NORD-OUEST PILOTE PAR LA PRESENCE DE CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE MAIS
AVEC UNE INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE.
A COURTE ECHEANCE, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES QUI EN
RESULTENT DEVRAIENT RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE FREDDY TOUT EN LE
MAINTENANT VERS LE NORD-OUEST, EN MAINTENANT UNE INCERTITUDE DANS LE
TIMING DE L'ATTERRISSAGE.
SELON CETTE NOUVELLE PREVISION, CELA CONDUIRAIT A UN ATTERRISSAGE
TOUJOURS PREVU SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE SUR LA PARTIE OUEST DE LA
PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE A PROXIMITE DE QUELIMANE, MAIS UN PEU PLUS TARD,
EN MATINEE DE SAMEDI. LE CYCLONE AURA DE PLUS UN DEPLACEMENT LENT A
PROXIMITE DES COTES, CONTRIBUANT A AMPLIFIER SON INFLUENCE.
A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES SONT D'ACCORD POUR
FAIRE SORTIR LE VORTEX RESIDUEL DE FREDDY DE NOUVEAU SUR MER.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO,
LES EAUX PLUS CHAUDES ET UNE MEILLEURE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
DEVRAIENT FAVORISER L'INTENSIFICATION DE FREDDY, AVEC UNE POSSIBLE
INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DANS LES PROCHAINS 6 A 12 HEURES. FREDDY
POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT
SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE PREVISION RESTE
INCERTAINE ET VA DEPENDRE DU TIMING DE LA ATTERRISSAGE. PAR LA SUITE
AU COURS DU WEEK-END PROCHAIN, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR LORS DE SON
TRANSIT SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT LENT VA AMPLIFIER LES IMPACTS PROCHES DE
LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN MI-JOURNEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE ET SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA,
PUIS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LA SOIREE ET LA NUIT. VENTS
OURAGAN POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 2M50 A 4M EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE AU NIVEAU DE QUELIMANE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE DEBUTANT EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR LA
COTE. SUR LES REGIONS DE ZAMBEZIA ET SOFALA CUMULS ATTENDUS DE
L'ORDRE DE 100 A 200 MM MAIS PLUS MARQUES SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION DE
ZAMBERIA LOCALEMENT AVEC PLUS DE 400-500 MM SUR LA REGION DE
L'ATTERRISSAGE, PROCHE DU COEUR DU PHENOMENE.

-MALAWI:
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DES FORTES PLUIES LIEES A FREDDY SUR L'EXTREME SUD
DU PAYS EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI ET PERSISTANT DIMANCHE ET LUNDI. CUMULS
DE L'ORDRE DE PLUS DE 150 MM MM EN 24H ENVISAGES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101304
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 76/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 38.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 315 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/11 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/11 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2023/03/12 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/03/12 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2023/03/13 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 0

72H: 2023/03/13 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/14 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/03/15 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5-A CI=4.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, AN ILL-DEFINED EYE APPEARED ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, BUT TEMPORARILY DISAPPEARED ON THE VERY LAST IMAGES. THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAINED VERY COLD.
IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA, IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM.
THE INTENSITY OF FREDDY IS ESTIMATED AT 70KT.

ALWAYS SO MANY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCES WHICH CAN BE
EXPLAINED BY THE COMBINATION OF CONTRADICTORY EFFECTS OF THE TWO
RIDGES (SUBTROPICAL AND NEAR EQUATORIAL). PREDOMINANCE OR NOT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AFRICA WHICH DRIVES MORE OR LESS THE STEERING
FLOW OVER FREDDY.
A SLOWDOWN IS HOWEVER EXPECTED EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED THAN BEFORE WITH
A SHIFT OF FREDDY A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-WEST DRIVEN BY THE
PRESENCE OF THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT WITH A GROWING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
IN THE SHORT TERM, THE RESULTING CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS SHOULD
SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF FREDDY WHILE KEEPING IT NORTHWESTWARD,
MAINTAINING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LANDFALL.
ACCORDING TO THIS NEW FORECAST, THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LANDFALL STILL
EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ON THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZE NEAR QUELIMANE, BUT A LITTLE LATER, ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MOREOVER A SLOW MOVEMENT NEAR THE
COASTS, CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLIFY ITS INFLUENCE.
IN THE LONG RUN, THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES AGREE TO TAKE THE RESIDUAL
VORTEX OF FREDDY OUT TO SEA AGAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR, THE WARMER WATERS
AND A BETTER DIVERGENCE OF ALOFT SHOULD FAVOUR THE INTENSIFICATION OF
FREDDY, WITH A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. FREDDY COULD THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDING ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS
PREDICTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
LANDFALL. THEREAFTER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT THE SLOW MOTION WILL AMPLIFY THE IMPACTS NEAR THE LANDING
ZONE
- MOZAMBIQUE:
* GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE MID-DAY FRIDAY OVER ZAMBEZE
PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED BY STORM
FORCE WINDS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT. HURRICANE WINDS POSSIBLE IN
THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER.
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH A SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO BIG
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A SURGE OF ABOUT
2M50 TO 4M IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING ZONE AT QUELIMANE LEVEL.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO START DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ON THE
COAST. OVER ZAMBEZIA AND SOFALA REGIONS EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE ORDER OF 100 TO 200 MM BUT MORE MARKED OVER THE SOUTH OF ZAMBERIA
REGION LOCALLY WITH MORE THAN 400-500 MM OVER THE LANDING AREA, CLOSE
TO THE HEART OF THE PHENOMENON.

-MALAWI:
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY DURING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF MORE THAN 150 MM IN 24 HOURS IS
EXPECTED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 101303 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 073/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/03/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 38.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
17.8 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
17.6 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 101200
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 073/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/03/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 38.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
17.8 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
17.6 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100627
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 75/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.7 S / 38.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SO: 60 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2023 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 11/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 11/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 12/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 0

60H: 12/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 0

72H: 13/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CDO
S'EST MAINTENUE. LES SOMMETS CONVECTIFS SE SONT NETTEMENT REFROIDIS.
LES DERNIERES DONNEES DMSP F16 ET F17 DE 02H40UTC ET 03H50UTC,
MONTRENT UN NET RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST, CE QUI PLAIDE POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME.
L'INTENSITE AYANT ETE SURESTIME DURANT LA NUIT DERNIERE, L'INTENSITE
DE FREDDY EST DONC MAINTENUE A 65KT.

TOUJOURS AUTANT DE DIFFERENCES ENTRE LES GUIDANCES QUI S'EXPLIQUENT
PAR LA COMBINESON D'EFFETS CONTRADICTOIRES DES DEUX DORSALES
(SUBTROPICALE ET PROCHE EQUATORIALE). PREDOMINANCE OU NON DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR L'AFRIQUE QUI PILOTE PLUS OU MOINS
LE FLUX DIRECTEUR SUR FREDDY.
UN RALENTISSEMENT EST CEPENDANT PREVU PLUS PRONONCE ENCORE QUE
PRECEDEMENT AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT ACTUEL DE FREDDY UN PEU PLUS VERS LE
NORD-OUEST PILOTE PAR LA PRESENCE DE CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE MAIS
AVEC UNE INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE.
A COURTE ECHEANCE, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES QUI EN
RESULTENT DEVRAIT RALENTIR LE DEPLACEMENT DE FREDDY TOUT EN LE
MAINTENANT VERS LE NORD-OUEST, EN MAINTENANT UNE INCERTITUDE DANS LE
TIMING.
SELON CETTE NOUVELLE PREVISION, CELA CONDUIRAIT A UN ATTERRISSAGE
TOUJOURS PREVU SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE SUR LA PARTIE OUEST DE LA
PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE A PROXIMITE DE QUELIMANE, MAIS UN PEU PLUS TARD,
EN FIN DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, VOIRE EN MATINEE DE SAMEDI. LE
CYCLONE AURA DE PLUS UN DEPLACEMENT LENT A PROXIMITE DES COTES,
CONTRIBUANT A AMPLIFIER SON INFLUENCE. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, IL EST
POSSIBLE QUE LE VORTEX RESIDUEL DE FREDDY SORTE DE NOUVEAU SUR MER.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TRPOPO,
LES EAUX PLUS CHAUDES ET UNE MEILLEURE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
DEVRAIENT FAVORISER L'INTENSIFICATION DE FREDDY, AVEC UNE POSSIBLE
INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DANS LES PROCHAINS 6 A 12 HEURES. FREDDY
POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT
SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE PREVISION RESTE
INCERTAINE ET VA DEPENDRE DU TIMING DE LA ATTERRISSAGE. PAR LA SUITE
AU COURS DU WEEK-END PROCHAIN, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR LORS DE SON
TRANSIT SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT LENT VA AMPLIFIER LES IMPACTS PROCHES DE
LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN MI-JOURNEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE ET SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA,
PUIS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LA SOIREE ET LA NUIT. VENTS
OURAGAN POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 2M50 A 4M EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE AU NIVEAU DE QUELIMANE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE DEBUTANT EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR LA
COTE. CUMULS ATTENDUS DE L'ORDRE DE 200 A 300 MM MAIS PLUS MARQUES
LOCALEMENT AVEC PLUS DE 400-500 MM SUR LA REGION DE L'ATTERRISSAGE,
PROCHE DU COEUR DU PHENOMENE.

-MALAWI:
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DES FORTES PLUIES LIEES A FREDDY SUR L'EXTREME SUD
DU PAYS EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI ET PERSISTANT DIMANCHE ET LUNDI. CUMULS
DE L'ORDRE DE PLUS DE 150 A 200 MM MM EN 24H ENVISAGES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 75/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 38.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/10 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/11 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/11 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2023/03/12 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 0

60H: 2023/03/12 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 0

72H: 2023/03/13 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/14 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IN CDO HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE CLEARLY COOLED. THE LAST DMSP
DATA F16 AND F17 OF 02H40UTC AND 03H50UTC, SHOW A CLEAR REINFORCEMENT
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH ARGUES FOR AN
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE INTENSITY HAVING BEEN OVERESTIMATED DURING LAST NIGHT, THE
INTENSITY OF FREDDY IS THUS MAINTAINED AT 65KT.

ALWAYS SO MANY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCES WHICH CAN BE
EXPLAINED BY THE COMBINATION OF CONTRADICTORY EFFECTS OF THE TWO
RIDGES (SUBTROPICAL AND NEAR EQUATORIAL). PREDOMINANCE OR NOT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AFRICA WHICH DRIVES MORE OR LESS THE STEERING
FLOW OVER FREDDY.
A SLOWDOWN IS HOWEVER EXPECTED EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED THAN BEFORE WITH
A SHIFT OF FREDDY A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-WEST DRIVEN BY THE
PRESENCE OF THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT WITH A GROWING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
IN THE SHORT TERM, THE RESULTING CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS SHOULD
SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF FREDDY WHILE KEEPING IT NORTHWESTWARD,
MAINTAINING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING.
ACCORDING TO THIS NEW FORECAST, THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LANDFALL STILL
EXPECTED ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ON THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZE NEAR QUELIMANE, BUT A LITTLE LATER, LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EVEN SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MOREOVER A SLOW
MOVEMENT NEAR THE COASTS, CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLIFY ITS INFLUENCE. IN
THE LONGER TERM, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RESIDUAL VORTEX OF FREDDY
GOES OUT AGAIN ON SEA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR, THE WARMER WATERS
AND A BETTER DIVERGENCE OF ALOFT SHOULD FAVOUR THE INTENSIFICATION OF
FREDDY, WITH A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. FREDDY COULD THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDING ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS
PREDICTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
LANDFALL. THEREAFTER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT THE SLOW MOTION WILL AMPLIFY THE IMPACTS NEAR THE LANDING
ZONE
- MOZAMBIQUE:
* GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE MID-DAY FRIDAY OVER ZAMBEZE
PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED BY STORM
FORCE WINDS DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT. HURRICANE WINDS POSSIBLE IN
THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER.
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH A SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO BIG
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A SURGE OF ABOUT
2M50 TO 4M IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING ZONE AT QUELIMANE LEVEL.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO START DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM ON THE
COAST. EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE ORDER OF 200 TO 300 MM BUT
LOCALLY MORE MARKED WITH MORE THAN 400-500 MM OVER THE LANDING AREA,
CLOSE TO THE HEART OF THE PHENOMENON.

-MALAWI:
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY ON SATURDAY AND PERSISTING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IN THE ORDER OF MORE THAN 150 TO 200 MM IN 24
HOURS ENVISAGED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 100610
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 072/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/03/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 38.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/10 AT 18 UTC:
18.1 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT,
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
17.7 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT,
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 100300 PAA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230310014315
2023031000 11S FREDDY 056 01 345 04 SATL 060
T000 190S 0386E 065 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 185S 0383E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 182S 0378E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 179S 0374E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 177S 0371E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 174S 0365E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 172S 0360E 035 R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 169S 0359E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 056
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 056
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 19.0S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.5S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.2S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.9S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.7S 37.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.4S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.2S 36.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.9S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 38.5E.
10MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.
//
1123020412 127S1168E 20
1123020418 122S1173E 20
1123020500 118S1178E 25
1123020506 115S1184E 25
1123020512 114S1189E 25
1123020518 116S1193E 25
1123020600 120S1193E 30
1123020606 123S1191E 35
1123020612 127S1189E 45
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022206 217S 450E 45
1123022212 221S 434E 25
1123022218 220S 424E 30
1123022300 222S 413E 30
1123022306 224S 404E 40
1123022312 226S 396E 55
1123022312 226S 396E 55
1123022318 228S 387E 55
1123022318 228S 387E 55
1123022400 225S 376E 60
1123022400 225S 376E 60
1123022406 225S 364E 60
1123022406 225S 364E 60
1123022412 226S 351E 50
1123022412 226S 351E 50
1123022418 226S 345E 45
1123022500 226S 338E 40
1123022506 228S 333E 30
1123022512 229S 331E 30
1123022518 227S 331E 25
1123022600 224S 333E 25
1123022606 219S 331E 25
1123022612 215S 331E 25
1123022618 213S 331E 25
1123022700 209S 332E 25
1123022706 209S 326E 20
1123022712 215S 314E 20
1123022718 219S 319E 20
1123022800 220S 322E 20
1123022806 221S 325E 15
1123022812 221S 331E 15
1123022818 218S 330E 15
1123030100 219S 333E 15
1123030106 223S 343E 15
1123030112 223S 350E 15
1123030118 223S 356E 20
1123030200 221S 360E 20
1123030206 218S 359E 25
1123030212 212S 372E 25
1123030218 216S 378E 25
1123030300 219S 378E 25
1123030306 220S 380E 25
1123030312 218S 381E 30
1123030318 220S 387E 30
1123030400 223S 390E 30
1123030406 225S 394E 35
1123030412 226S 400E 40
1123030418 227S 407E 45
1123030500 228S 414E 45
1123030506 231S 420E 45
1123030512 231S 424E 45
1123030518 234S 432E 45
1123030600 237S 432E 45
1123030606 241S 432E 50
1123030612 241S 429E 50
1123030612 241S 429E 50
1123030618 240S 428E 50
1123030618 240S 428E 50
1123030700 238S 426E 65
1123030700 238S 426E 65
1123030706 234S 424E 80
1123030706 234S 424E 80
1123030706 234S 424E 80
1123030712 231S 420E 90
1123030712 231S 420E 90

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100040
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 74/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 38.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SO: 60 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 11/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 11/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 12/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 12/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 13/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CDO
S'EST MAINTENUE. LES SOMMETS CONVECTIFS SONT RESTES BIEN REFROIDIS
SUR UNE ZONE ASSEZ IMPORTANTE. DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST PAR
CONVERGENCE DU FLUX, L'ACTIVTE CONVECTIVE EST AUSSI TRES MARQUEE SANS
ETRE DIRECTEMENT RATTACHEE AU CYCLONE FREDDY. LA PASSE GCOM-W DE
2226UTC PERMET UNE LOCALISATION UN PEU PLUS PRECISE DU CENTRE DE
CIRCULATION. EN CE QUI CONCERNE L'INTENSITE, L'ANALYSE DVORAK A 00UTC
PERMET D'ESTIMER ENCORE DES VENT A 65KT ALORS QUE LA PASSE SAR DE
1600UTC OBTENUE TARDIVEMENT PLAIDAIT POUR DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE
55KT. L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONVECTION RECENTE PERMET DE MAINTENIR UNE
ESTIMATION A 65KT POUR FREDDY A 00UTC.

TOUJOURS AUTANT DE DIFFERENCES ENTRE LES GUIDANCES QUI S'EXPLIQUENT
PAR LA PREDOMINANCE OU NON DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR
L'AFRIQUE QUI PILOTE PLUS OU MOINS LE FLUX DIRECTEUR SUR FREDDY. UN
RALENTISSEMENT EST CEPENDANT PREVU PLUS PRONONCE QUE PRECEDEMENT AVEC
UN DEPLACEMENT ACTUEL DE FREDDY UN PEU PLUS VERS LE NORD-OUEST PILOTE
PAR LA PRESENCE DE CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE MAIS AVEC UNE INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. A COURTE ECHEANCE, LES
FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES QUI EN RESULTENT DEVRAIT RALENTIR LE
DEPLACEMENT DE FREDDY TOUT EN LE MAINTENANT VERS LE NORD-OUEST VOIRE
DE NOUVEAU VERS LE NORD-NORD-OUEST. SUIVANT CETTE NOUVELLE PREVISION,
CELA CONDUIRAIT A UN ATTERRISSAGE TOUJOURS PREVU SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE SUR LA PARTIE OUEST DE LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE A PROXIMITE
DE QUELIMANE, MAIS UN PEU PLUS TARD EN FIN DE NUIT DE VENDREDI A
SAMEDI. LE CYCLONE AURA DE PLUS UN DEPLACEMENT LENT A PROXIMITE DES
COTES, CONTRIBUANT A AMPLIFIER SON INFLUENCE. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE,
IL EST POSSIBLE QUE LE VORTEX RESIDUEL DE FREDDY SORTE DE NOUVEAU SUR
MER.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LES EAUX PLUS
CHAUDES ET UNE MEILLEURE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIENT FAVORISER
L'INTENSIFICATION DE FREDDY, AVEC UNE POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE
DANS LES PROCHAINS 6 A 12 HEURES. FREDDY POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE PREVISION RESTE INCERTAINE ET VA DEPENDRE
DU TIMING DE LA ATTERRISSAGE. PAR LA SUITE AU COURS DU WEEK-END
PROCHAIN, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR LORS DE SON TRANSIT SUR LES
TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT LENT VA AMPLIFIER LES IMPACTS PROCHES DE
LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE ET SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA,
PUIS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS L'APRES-MIDI OU SOIREE. VENTS
OURAGAN POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 2M50 A 4M EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE AU NIVEAU DE QUELIMANE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR LA COTE.
CUMULS ATTENDUS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM MAIS PLUS MARQUES
LOCALEMENT AVEC PLUS DE 300 MM SUR LA COTE PROCHE DU COEUR DU
PHENOMENE.

-MALAWI:
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DES FORTES PLUIES LIEES A FREDDY SUR L'EXTREME SUD
DU PAYS EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI ET PERSISTANT DIMANCHE ET LUNDI. CUMULS
DE L'ORDRE DE PLUS DE 150 MM EN 24H ENVISAGES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 74/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 38.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 60 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/10 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/11 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/11 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2023/03/12 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/03/12 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/03/13 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IN CDO HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAINED WELL COOLED OVER A RATHER
LARGE AREA. IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BY CONVERGENCE OF THE FLOW, THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO VERY MARKED WITHOUT BEING DIRECTLY LINKED
TO CYCLONE FREDDY. THE GCOM-W PASS OF 2226UTC ALLOWS A MORE PRECISE
LOCALIZATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. REGARDING THE INTENSITY, THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 00UTC STILL ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE WINDS AT 65KT WHILE
THE SAR PASS OF 1600UTC OBTAINED LATE PLEADED FOR WINDS OF ABOUT
55KT. THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWS TO MAINTAIN AN
ESTIMATE AT 65KT FOR FREDDY AT 00UTC.

THERE ARE STILL MANY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCES WHICH CAN BE
EXPLAINED BY THE PREDOMINANCE OR NOT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
AFRICA WHICH DRIVES THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ON FREDDY. A SLOWDOWN
IS HOWEVER EXPECTED MORE PRONOUNCED THAN PREVIOUSLY WITH A SHIFT OF
FREDDY A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-WEST DRIVEN BY THE PRESENCE OF
THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT WITH A GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE RESULTING CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF FREDDY WHILE KEEPING
IT TOWARDS THE NORTH-WEST OR EVEN BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTH-WEST.
ACCORDING TO THIS NEW FORECAST, THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LANDING STILL
PLANNED ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ON THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZE NEAR QUELIMANE, BUT A LITTLE LATER ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE MOREOVER A SLOW MOVEMENT NEAR THE
COASTS, CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLIFY ITS INFLUENCE. IN THE LONGER TERM, IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RESIDUAL VORTEX OF FREDDY WILL GO OUT TO SEA
AGAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR, THE WARMER WATERS
AND A BETTER DIVERGENCE OF ALOFT SHOULD FAVOUR THE INTENSIFICATION OF
FREDDY, WITH A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. FREDDY COULD THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDING ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS
PREDICTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
LANDFALL. THEREAFTER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM BUT THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL AMPLIFY THE IMPACTS NEAR THE
LANDFALL AREA.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN THE MORNING OF FRIDAY OVER
ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED
BY STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HURRICANE WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER.
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH A SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO BIG
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A 1M50 TO 2M SURGE
IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL LOCATION NEAR QUELIMANE.
* HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM ON THE COAST.
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM BUT LOCALLY MORE THAN 300
MM ON THE COAST NEAR THE HEART OF THE PHENOMENON.

-MALAWI:
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY OVER THE SOUTH OF
THE COUNTRY DURING SATURDAY AND PERSISTENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 150MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 100000
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 071/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 10/03/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 38.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
17.8 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091823
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 73/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 38.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2023 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 10/03/2023 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 11/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 75

48H: 11/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 130 NO: 100

60H: 12/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 12/03/2023 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2023 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CDO
S'EST MAINTENUE BIEN QUE LES SOMMETS CONVECTIFS SE SONT RECHAUFFES
PUIS A NOUVEAU REFROIDIS. IL EST ASSEZ DELICAT DE LOCALISER AVEC
PRECISION LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION MAIS CELUI-CI RESTE BIEN SOUS LA
CONVECTION LA PLUS MARQUEE. EN L'ABSENCE D'AUTRES ESTIMATIONS
SATELLITALES DE VENT, UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN CDO DE 4.5- PEUT ETRE
FAITE LAISSANT FREDDY PASSER LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

TOUJOURS AUTANT DE DIFFERENCES ENTRE LES GUIDANCES QUI S'EXPLIQUENT
PAR LA PREDOMINANCE OU NON DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR
L'AFRIQUE QUI PILOTE PLUS OU MOINS LE FLUX DIRECTEUR SUR FREDDY. LE
DEPLACEMENT ACTUEL DE FREDDY VERS LE NORD-NORD-OUEST RESTE PILOTE PAR
LA PRESENCE DE CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A COURTE ECHEANCE, CETTE
DORSALE VA INDUIRE UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS VERS LE NORD-OUEST EN
MAINTENANT UNE ALLURE ASSEZ CONSTANTE ET CONDUIRE A UN ATTERRISSAGE
TOUJOURS PREVU SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE SUR LA PARTIE OUEST DE LA
PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE A PROXIMITE DE QUELIMANE, VENDREDI EN SOIREE OU
DURANT LA NUIT SUIVANTE. CERTAINES GUIDANCES DONT LA LOCALISATION
ACTUELLE EST TROP SUD PROPOSENT UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT SOUS L'EFFET
D'UNE INFLUENCE PLUS MARQUE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE,
SCENARIO QUI N'EST PAS SUIVI PAR LE CMRS. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, IL
EST POSSIBLE QUE LE VORTEX RESIDUEL DE FREDDY SORTE DE NOUVEAU SUR
MER.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LES EAUX PLUS
CHAUDES ET UNE MEILLEURE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIENT FAVORISER
L'INTENSIFICATION DE FREDDY, AVEC UNE POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE
DANS LES PROCHAINS HEURES. FREDDY POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE PREVISION RESTE INCERTAINE ET VA DEPENDRE DU TIMING
DE LA ATTERRISSAGE. PAR LA SUITE AU COURS DU WEEK-END PROCHAIN,
FREDDY DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR LORS DE SON TRANSIT SUR LES TERRES DU
MOZAMBIQUE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE ET SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA,
PUIS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS L'APRES-MIDI OU SOIREE. VENTS
OURAGAN POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M50 A 2M EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR LA COTE.
CUMULS ATTENDUS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM MAIS PLUS MARQUES
LOCALEMENT PLUS DE 300 MM SUR LA COTE PROCHE DU COEUR DU PHENOMENE.

-MALAWI:
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DES FORTES PLUIES LIEES A FREDDY SUR L'EXTREME SUD
DU PAYS EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI ET PERSISTANT DIMANCHE ET LUNDI. CUMULS
DE L'ORDRE DE PLUS DE 100 MM EN 24H ENVISAGES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091823
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 73/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 38.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/10 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/10 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/11 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75

48H: 2023/03/11 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 100

60H: 2023/03/12 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/03/12 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/13 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUDY CONFIGURATION IN CDO HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED UP THEN COOLED
DOWN AGAIN. IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH PRECISION THE
CIRCULATION CENTER BUT IT REMAINS WELL UNDER THE MOST MARKED
CONVECTION. IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATES, A
DVORAK ANALYSIS IN CDO OF 4.5- CAN BE MADE LETTING FREDDY PASS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD.

ALWAYS SO MANY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GUIDANCES WHICH CAN BE
EXPLAINED BY THE PREDOMINANCE OR NOT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
AFRICA WHICH DRIVES MORE OR LESS THE DIRECTIONAL FLOW ON FREDDY. THE
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF FREDDY TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTH-WEST REMAINS
DRIVEN BY THE PRESENCE OF THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THE SHORT TERM,
THIS RIDGE WILL INDUCE A MORE NORTH-WESTERLY MOVEMENT WHILE
MAINTAINING A FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED AND LEAD TO A LANDING STILL
PLANNED ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ON THE WESTERN PART OF THE
PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZE NEAR QUELIMANE, ON FRIDAY EVENING OR DURING THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. SOME GUIDELINES WHOSE CURRENT LOCATION IS TOO
SOUTHERN SUGGEST A SLOWER MOVEMENT UNDER THE EFFECT OF A MORE MARKED
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, A SCENARIO THAT IS NOT
FOLLOWED BY THE RSMC. ON A LONGER TIME SCALE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
RESIDUAL VORTEX OF FREDDY GOES OUT TO SEA AGAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR, THE WARMER WATERS
AND A BETTER DIVERGENCE OF ALOFT SHOULD FAVOUR THE INTENSIFICATION OF
FREDDY, WITH A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT HOURS.
FREDDY COULD THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE ITS LANDING ON THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS PREDICTION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE LANDFALL.
THEREAFTER OVER THE WEEKEND, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN THE MORNING OF FRIDAY OVER
ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED
BY STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HURRICANE WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER.
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH A SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO BIG
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A 1M50 TO 2M SURGE
IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL LOCATION.
* HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM ON THE COAST.
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM BUT LOCALLY MORE THAN 300
MM ON THE COAST NEAR THE HEART OF THE PHENOMENON.

-MALAWI:
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY OVER THE SOUTH OF
THE COUNTRY DURING SATURDAY AND PERSISTENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 100MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 091800
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 070/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 09/03/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 38.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
0 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/10 AT 06 UTC:
18.5 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/10 AT 18 UTC:
18.0 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091300
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 72/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 38.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 60 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2023 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 10/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 11/03/2023 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 11/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 12/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 12/03/2023 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2023 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST AMELIOREE AU COURS DES DERNIERES
HEURES, AVEC L'ENROULEMENT D'UNE BANDE INCURVEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD-EST AUTOUR D'UN POINT CHAUD EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. PLUS
RECEMMENT, UN BURST DE CONVECTION TRES MARQUE S'EST DECLENCHE DANS LA
PARTIE NORD ASSOCIE A DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS (INFERIEURS A -90C). IL
POURRAIT S'AGIR D'UNE HOT TOWER QUI POURRAIT FAVORISER UNE
INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE FREDDY RESTE PILOTE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE QUI SE PROLONGE AU SUD DE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE. TOUTEFOIS, EN FONCTION DE LA PROFONDEUR DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
ANALYSE PAR LES MODELES, DES DIFFERENCES DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT,
SONT CONSTATEES SUR L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES. GFS SE DEMARQUE
TOUJOURS DES AUTRES GUIDANCES EN ETANT LE PLUS LENT ET EN NE FAISANT
PAS RENTRER LE SYSTEME SUR TERRE (SCENARIO MINORITAIRE POUR
L'INSTANT). LA PREVISION CMRS RESTE SUR UN COMPROMIS AVEC UN
ATTERRISSAGE TOUJOURS PREVU SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE SUR LA PARTIE
OUEST DE LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE A PROXIMITE DE QUELIMANE, VENDREDI EN
SOIREE OU DURANT LA NUIT SUIVANTE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT AINSI QUE LES EAUX
PLUS CHAUDES LA MEILLEURE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIENT FAVORISER
L'INTENSIFICATION DE FREDDY DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. LA POSSIBLE
PRESENCE DE HOT TOWER POURRAIT D'AILLEURS ACCELERER LE DEVELOPPEMENT
DE FREDDY ET CONDUIRE A UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE DANS LES PROCHAINS
HEURES. FREDDY POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE
PREVISION RESTE INCERTAINE ET VA DEPENDRE DU TIMING DE LA
ATTERRISSAGE. LE WEEK-END PROCHAIN, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR SUR
TERRE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE ET SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA,
PUIS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS L'APRES-MIDI OU SOIREE. VENTS
OURAGAN POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M50 A 2M EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR LA COTE.
CUMULS ATTENDUS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM, LOCALEMENT PLUS DE 300
MM PROCHE DU COEUR DU PHENOMENE.

-MALAWI:
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DES FORTES PLUIES LIEES A FREDDY SUR L'EXTREME SUD
DU PAYS EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE PLUS DE 100 MM EN
24H ENVISAGES POUR L'INSTANT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 72/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 38.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 60 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/10 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/10 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2023/03/11 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2023/03/11 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2023/03/12 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/03/12 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/13 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0+

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH A CURVED
BAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING AROUND A HOT SPOT IN
CLASSICAL IMAGERY. MORE RECENTLY, A STRONG CONVECTION BURST HAS
STARTED IN THE NORTHERN SIDE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD TOPS (BELOW
-90C). IT COULD BE A HOT TOWER WHICH COULD FAVOUR A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MOVEMENT OF FREDDY REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE PRESENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AFRICA WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE STEERING FLOW
ANALYZED BY THE MODELS, DIFFERENCES IN MOTION SPEED ARE OBSERVED
AMONGST THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. GFS IS STILL DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER
GUIDANCE BY BEING THE SLOWEST AND BY NOT MAKING THE SYSTEM LANDFALL
(OUTLIER SCENARIO FOR THE MOMENT). THE RSMC FORECAST REMAINS ON A
COMPROMISE WITH A LANDFALL STILL EXPECTED ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, ON
THE WESTERN APRTS OF THE ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE, NEAR QUELIMANE, ON FRIDAY
EVENING OR DURING THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SHEAR DECREASE AS WELL AS THE WARMER
WATERS AND THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE FREDDY'S
INTENSIFICATION IN THE COMING HOURS. THE POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF A HOT
TOWER COULD ACCELERATE THIS TREND AND LEAD TO A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IN THE NEXT HOURS. FREDDY COULD REACH THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE LANDFALL TIMING. NEXT WEEKEND,
FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER LAND.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN THE MORNING OF FRIDAY OVER
ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED
BY STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HURRICANE WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER.
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH A SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO BIG
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A 1M50 TO 2M SURGE
IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL LOCATION.

* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM ON THE COAST.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 100 TO 150 MM, LOCALLY MORE THAN 300 MM
NEAR THE CORE.

-MALAWI:
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY OVER THE SOUTH OF
THE COUNTRY DURING SATURDAY. RAINFALL EXCEEDING 100MM IN 24 HOURS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE MOMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 091226
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 069/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 09/03/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 38.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 275 NM IN THE NORTH-WEST QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
19.3 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
18.5 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090701
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 71/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 39.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 60 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2023 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 10/03/2023 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 10/03/2023 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 11/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 10

60H: 11/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 12/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=4.0 CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST AMELIOREE AU COURS DES DERNIERES
HEURES, AVEC UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONVECTION DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. CELA EST PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC
UNE LEGERE BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD QUI TOUCHE LE
SYSTEME. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES CONFIRMENT CETTE
AMELIORATION AVEC UNE COURBURE ET UN ENROULEMENT PLUS NET AUTOUR DU
CENTRE SUR LES PASSES CONSECUTIVES SSMIS (0033Z, 0235Z ET 0349Z).
L'INTENSITE EST POUR L'INSTANT MAINTENUE A 60KT A DEFAUT D'ESTIMATION
FIABLE.


LE DEPLACEMENT DE FREDDY RESTE PILOTE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE QUI SE PROLONGE AU SUD DE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE. TOUTEFOIS, EN FONCTION DE LA PROFONDEUR DU FLUX DIRECTEUR
ANALYSE PAR LES MODELES (LIEN AVEC LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE), DES
DIFFERENCES DE CAP MAIS SURTOUT DE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT, SONT
CONSTATEES SUR L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES. GFS SE DEMARQUE MEME
NOTABLEMENT DES AUTRES GUIDANCES EN ETANT LE PLUS LENT ET EN NE
FAISANT PAS RENTRER LE SYSTEME SUR TERRE (SCENARIO MINORITAIRE POUR
L'INSTANT). LA PREVISION CMRS RESTE SUR UN COMPROMIS AVEC UN
ATTERRISSAGE TOUJOURS PREVU SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE SUR LA PARTIE
OUEST DE LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE A PROXIMITE DE QUELIMANE, VENDREDI EN
FIN DE JOURNEE OU DURANT LA NUIT SUIVANTE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY EST TOUJOURS DANS UNE ZONE AVEC UNE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE MARQUEE DE SECTEUR SUD.
CETTE CONTRAINTE, PREVUE ENCORE PERSISTER AUJOURD'HUI, DEVRAIT ENCORE
CONTRARIER AUJOURD'HUI LES TENTATIVES DE RE-ORGANISATION D'UN COEUR
CENTRAL AINSI QUE DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.
PUIS A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT REDEVENIR
SUFFISAMMENT FAIBLE, FREDDY POURRAIT RENCONTRER DES EAUX PLUS CHAUDES
AVEC UNE MEILLEURE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DONC S'INTENSIFIER DE
NOUVEAU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIR CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE PREVISION
RESTE INCERTAINE ET VA DEPENDRE DE LA DUREE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
AINSI QUE DU TEMPS RESTANT AVANT L'ARRIVEE SUR TERRE. LE WEEK-END
PROCHAIN, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR SUR TERRE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE ET SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA,
PUIS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS L'APRES-MIDI OU SOIREE. VENTS
OURAGAN POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M A 1M50 EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR LA COTE.
CUMULS ATTENDUS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM, LOCALEMENT 200 A 300 MM
PROCHE DU COEUR.

-MALAWI:
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DES FORTES PLUIES LIEES A FREDDY SUR L'EXTREME SUD
DU PAYS EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM EN 24H
ENVISAGES POUR L'INSTANT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090701
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 71/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 39.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 60 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/09 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/10 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2023/03/10 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2023/03/11 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 10

60H: 2023/03/11 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/03/12 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 34.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/13 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.0 CI=4.5-

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH
CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT NEAR THE
CENTER. THIS IS PROBABLY RELATED TO A SLIGHT DECREASE OF THE
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES
CONFIRM THIS IMPROVEMENT WITH A BETTER CURVATURE AND WRAPPING AROUND
THE CENTER ON THE CONSECUTIVE SSMIS PASSES (0033Z, 0235Z AND 0349Z).
THE INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINED AT 60KT DUE TO A LACK OF
RELIABLE DATA.

THE MOVEMENT OF FREDDY REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE PRESENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AFRICA WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE STEERING FLOW
ANALYZED BY THE MODELS (LINK WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST),
DIFFERENCES IN HEADING BUT ESPECIALLY IN MOTION SPEED ARE OBSERVED
AMONGST THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. GFS IS EVEN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
FROM THE OTHER GUIDANCE BY BEING THE SLOWEST AND BY NOT MAKING THE
SYSTEM LANDFALL (OUTLIER SCENARIO FOR THE MOMENT). THE RSMC FORECAST
REMAINS ON A COMPROMISE WITH A LANDFALL STILL EXPECTED ON THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST, ON THE WESTERN APRTS OF THE ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE, NEAR
QUELIMANE, ON LATE FRIDAY OR DURING THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY IS STILL IN AN AREA WITH SOME MID SHEAR
SHEAR CONSTRAINT MARKED FROM SOUTH. THIS CONSTRAINT, STILL EXPECTED
TO PERSIST TODAY, SHOULD STILL HINDER ATTEMPTS TO REORGANIZE AN INNER
CORE WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS. THEN FROM THURSDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR
COULD BE LOW ENOUGH AGAIN, FREDDY COULD MEET WARMER WATERS WITH A
BETTER UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE AND THUS INTENSIFY AGAIN AT THE STAGE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL
ON THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS PREDICTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND
WILL DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF THE WEAKENING AND THE TIME REMAINING
BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS WEEKEND, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
LAND.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN THE MORNING OF FRIDAY OVER
ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED
BY STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HURRICANE WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER.
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH A SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO BIG
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A SURGE OF ABOUT
1M TO 1M50 IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM ON THE COAST.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 100 TO 150 MM, LOCALLY 200 TO 300 MM
NEAR THE CORE.

-MALAWI:
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL
IN THE ORDER OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS EXPECTED FOR THE MOMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 090627
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 068/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 09/03/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 39.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
19.7 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/10 AT 06 UTC:
19.0 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090052
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 70/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 39.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 60 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2023 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 65

24H: 10/03/2023 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 10/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

48H: 11/03/2023 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 11/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 12/03/2023 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5 CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE NE S'EST PAS AMELIOREE AU FIL DE LA NUIT ET
CONTINUE DE MARQUER UNE TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SUR LES
DERNIERES 24H. TOUTEFOIS DES DONNEES SAR RECUES EN COURS DE NUIT
(S1-A ET RCM-2 DE 1543Z ET 1551Z RESPECTIVEMENT) SUGGERENT QUE FREDDY
ETAIT POTENTIELLEMENT PLUS INTENSE QUE PRECEDEMENT ESTIME A 18Z.
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE EST ESTIMEE DE FACON INCERTAINE A 60 KT EN
COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES QUI SONT BASSES (SATCON A 51
KT 1-MIN A 2222Z) ET LES DONNEES SAR (SUGGERANT DES VENTS A 90 KT
1-MIN VERS 15Z-16Z HIER SOIR)

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DERNIERE PREVISION A PEU CHANGE AU
NIVEAU DE LA POSITION DU POINT D'IMPACT MAIS LE TIMING A ETE
LEGEREMENT RETARDE. LE DEPLACEMENT DE FREDDY RESTE PILOTE PAR LA
PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE QUI SE PROLONGE AU
SUD DE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. TOUTEFOIS, EN FONCTION DE LA PROFONDEUR
DU FLUX DIRECTEUR ANALYSE PAR LES MODELES (LIEN AVEC LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE), DES DIFFERENCES DE CAP MAIS SURTOUT DE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT, SONT CONSTATEES SUR L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES. GFS SE
DEMARQUE MEME NOTABLEMENT DES AUTRES GUIDANCES EN ETANT LE PLUS LENT
ET EN NE FAISANT PAS RENTRER FRANCHEMENT LE SYSTEME SUR TERRE
(SCENARIO MINORITAIRE POUR L'INSTANT). LA PREVISION CMRS RESTE SUR UN
COMPROMIS AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE TOUJOURS PREVU SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE PRES DE LA LIMITE ENTRE LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE ET LA
PROVINCE DE SOFALA, VENDREDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU DURANT LA NUIT
SUIVANTE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY EST TOUJOURS DANS UNE ZONE AVEC UNE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE MARQUEE DE SECTEUR SUD.
CETTE CONTRAINTE, PREVUE ENCORE PERSISTER AUJOURD'HUI, DEVRAIT ENCORE
CONTRARIER AUJOURD'HUI LES TENTATIVES DE RE-ORGANISATION D'UN COEUR
CENTRAL EN ENGENDRANT DU TILT DE LA STRUCTURE SUR LA VERTICALE AINSI
QUE DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. FREDDY POURRAIT
DONC PERDRE ENCORE EN INTENSITE AUJOURD'HUI. PUIS A PARTIR DE JEUDI
SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT REDEVENIR SUFFISAMMENT FAIBLE, FREDDY
POURRAIT RENCONTRER DES EAUX PLUS CHAUDES AVEC UNE MEILLEURE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DONC S'INTENSIFIER DE NOUVEAU AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE.
CETTE PREVISION RESTE INCERTAINE ET VA DEPENDRE DE LA DUREE DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT AINSI QUE DU TEMPS RESTANT AVANT L'ARRIVEE SUR
TERRE. LE WEEK-END PROCHAIN, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR SUR TERRE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE ET SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA,
PUIS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS L'APRES-MIDI OU SOIREE. VENTS
OURAGAN POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M A 1M50 EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR LA COTE.
CUMULS ATTENDUS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM, LOCALEMENT 200 MM PROCHE
DU COEUR.

-MALAWI:
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DES FORTES PLUIES LIEES A FREDDY SUR L'EXTREME SUD
DU PAYS EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM EN 24H
ENVISAGES POUR L'INSTANT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090052
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 70/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 39.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/09 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65

24H: 2023/03/10 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/10 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2023/03/11 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2023/03/11 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2023/03/12 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5 CI=4.5-

THE CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT IMPROVE DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO
SHOW A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER SAR DATA
RECEIVED DURING THE NIGHT (S1-A AND RCM-2 OF 1543Z AND 1551Z
RESPECTIVELY) SUGGEST THAT FREDDY WAS POTENTIALLY MORE INTENSE THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AT 18Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AN UNCERTAIN 60
KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE WHICH ARE LOW
(SATCON AT 51 KT 1-MIN AT 2222Z) AND THE SAR DATA (SUGGESTING WINDS
AT 90 KT 1-MIN AROUND 15Z-16Z LAST NIGHT)

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE LAST FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF
IMPACT POINT POSITION BUT THE TIMING HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DELAYED. THE
MOVEMENT OF FREDDY REMAINS DRIVEN BY THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER AFRICA WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE STEERING FLOW ANALYZED BY THE
MODELS (LINK WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST), DIFFERENCES IN HEADING BUT
ESPECIALLY IN SPEED OF MOVEMENT ARE OBSERVED AMONGST THE AVILABLE
GUIDANCE. GFS IS EVEN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER GUIDANCE
BY BEING THE SLOWEST AND BY NOT MAKING THE SYSTEM PENETRATED WELL
OVERLAND (MINORITY SCENARIO FOR THE MOMENT). THE RSMC FORECAST
REMAINS ON A COMPROMISE WITH A LANDFALL STILL EXPECTED ON THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN ZAMBEZE AND SOFALA
PROVINCES, ON FRIDAY AT THE END OF THE DAY OR DURING THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY IS STILL IN AN AREA WITH SOME MID SHEAR
SHEAR CONSTRAINT MARKED FROM SOUTH. THIS CONSTRAINT, STILL EXPECTED
TO PERSIST TODAY, SHOULD STILL THWART ATTEMPTS TO REORGANIZE AN INNER
CORE BY TILTING THE STRUCTURE ALONG THE VERTICAL ALONG WITH DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS. FREDDY COULD LOSE AGAIN IN INTENSITY TODAY. THEN FROM
THURSDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR COULD BE LOW ENOUGH AGAIN, FREDDY COULD
MEET WARMER WATERS WITH A BETTER UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE AND THUS
INTENSIFY AGAIN AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL
ON THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS PREDICTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND
WILL DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF THE WEAKENING AND THE TIME REMAINING
BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS WEEKEND, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
LAND.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN THE MORNING OF FRIDAY OVER
ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED
BY STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HURRICANE WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER.
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH A SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO BIG
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A SURGE OF ABOUT
1M TO 1M50 IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM ON THE COAST.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 100 TO 150 MM, LOCALLY 200 MM NEAR THE
CORE.

-MALAWI:
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL
IN THE ORDER OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS EXPECTED FOR THE MOMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 090020
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 067/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 09/03/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 39.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP 200 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/09 AT 12 UTC:
20.3 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
19.7 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 18Z: FTT 60 KT / 978
HPA. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE STABILIZED SINCE 18Z.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081900
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 69/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.9 S / 39.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2023 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 09/03/2023 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 10/03/2023 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

48H: 10/03/2023 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 65

60H: 11/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 11/03/2023 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=4.0- CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FREDDY RESTE MARQUE PAR DES BURST DE
CONVECTION AU SOMMETS TRES FROIDS LAISSANT LE CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA
MASSE. LA TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SE POURSUIT SOUS L'EFFET DE
L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE EST ESTIMEE A 55 KT EN BON ACCORD
AVEC LE SATCON (67 KT 1-MIN A 1640Z).

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA DERNIERE PREVISION EST ENCORE DECALEE
VERS L'OUEST SUR UN TIMING TRES LEGEREMENT PLUS RAPIDE. LE
DEPLACEMENT DE FREDDY RESTE PILOTE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE QUI SE PROLONGE AU SUD DE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE. ON OBSERVE UNE FAIBLE DISPERSION DES MODELES SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H. PUIS LA
DISPERSION AUGMENTE AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE DE FREDDY. GFS SE
DEMARQUE MEME NOTABLEMENT DES AUTRES GUIDANCES EN NE FAISANT PAS
RENTRER FRANCHEMENT LE SYSTEME SUR TERRE (SCENARIO MINORITAIRE POUR
L'INSTANT). LA PREVISION CMRS RESTE SUR UN COMPROMIS AVEC UN
ATTERRISSAGE TOUJOURS PREVU SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE PRES DE LA
LIMITE ENTRE LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE ET LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA,
VENDREDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU DURANT LA NUIT SUIVANTE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY EST TOUJOURS DANS UNE ZONE AVEC UNE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE MARQUEE DE SECTEUR SUD.
CETTE CONTRAINTE POURRAIT ENGENDRER UN TILT DE LA STRUCTURE SUR LA
VERTICALE ET PERMETTRE A DE L'AIR SEC DE SE RAPPROCHER DU CENTRE.
FREDDY DEVRAIT DONC PERDRE ENCORE EN INTENSITE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H. PUIS A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, MALGRE LE MAINTIENT DU
CISAILLEMENT, FREDDY POURRAIT RENCONTRER DES EAUX PLUS CHAUDES AVEC
UNE MEILLEURE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DONC S'INTENSIFIER DE NOUVEAU
AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE PREVISION RESTE INCERTAINE ET VA DEPENDRE DE LA
DUREE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT AINSI QUE DU TEMPS RESTANT AVANT L'ARRIVEE
SUR TERRE. LE WEEK-END PROCHAIN, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR SUR
TERRE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE ET SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA,
PUIS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS L'APRES-MIDI OU SOIREE. VENTS
OURAGAN POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M A 1M50 EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR LA COTE.
CUMULS ATTENDUS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM, LOCALEMENT 200 MM PROCHE
DU COEUR.

-MALAWI:
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DES FORTES PLUIES LIEES A FREDDY SUR L'EXTREME SUD
DU PAYS EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM EN 24H
ENVISAGES POUR L'INSTANT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081900
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 69/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 39.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/09 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/09 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/10 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2023/03/10 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 36.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 65

60H: 2023/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2023/03/11 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.0- CI=4.5-

THE FREDDY CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS MARKED BY CONVECTIVE BURSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD TOPS LEAVING EN EMBEDDED CENTER. THE
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE INCREASE OF THE MID
WIND SHEAR. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 55 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SATCON (67 KT 1-MIN AT 1640Z).

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE LAST FORECAST IS STILL SHIFTED TOWARDS THE
WEST ON A VERY SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING. THE MOVEMENT OF FREDDY REMAINS
DRIVEN BY THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AFRICA WHICH
EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. WE OBSERVE LOW SPREAD ON
THIS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE NORTH-WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN
THE SPREAD INCREASES AT THE TIME OF THE LANDFALL OF FREDDY. GFS IS
EVEN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER GUIDANCE BY NOT MAKING
THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERLAND (MINORITY SCENARIO FOR THE MOMENT). THE
RSMC FORECAST REMAINS ON A COMPROMISE WITH A LANFALL STILL EXPECTED
ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN ZAMBEZE AND SOFALA
PROVINCES, ON FRIDAY AT THE END OF THE DAY OR DURING THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY IS STILL IN AN AREA WITH A SHEAR STRESS
OF MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE MARKED FROM SOUTH. THIS STRESS COULD CAUSE THE
STRUCTURE TO TILT VERTICALLY AND ALLOW DRY AIR TO APPROACH THE
CENTER. FREDDY SHOULD THEREFORE LOSE MORE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THEN FROM THURSDAY EVENING, IN SPITE OF THE MAINTENANCE OF
THE SHEAR, FREDDY COULD MEET WARMER WATERS WITH A BETTER DIVERGENCE
OF ALTITUDE AND THUS TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL ON THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS
PREDICTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF THE
WEAKENING AND THE TIME REMAINING BEFORE THE LANDFALL. DURING THE
WEEKEND, FREDDY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN THE MORNING OF FRIDAY OVER
ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED
BY STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HURRICANE WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER.
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH A SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A SURGE OF ABOUT
1M TO 1M50 IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL ZONE.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM ON THE COAST.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 100 TO 150 MM, LOCALLY 200 MM NEAR THE
CORE.

-MALAWI:
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO FREDDY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL IN THE ORDER OF
100 MM IN 24 HOURS EXPECTED FOR THE MOMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 081826
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 066/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 08/03/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 39.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP 150 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
20.4 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
19.9 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 68/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 40.1 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 155 SO: 195 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2023 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 09/03/2023 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 10/03/2023 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 10/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

60H: 11/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 11/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, FREDDY A CONTINUE A ETE IMPACTE PAR
LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN CDO
SUR L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE DE 1048Z MONTRE
NETTEMENT UNE CONVECTION REJETEE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST DU SYSTEME
ET DE L'AIR SEC QUI GAGNE PAR LE SUD. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES
OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, L'INTENSITE DE FREDDY EST
BAISSEE AVEC DES VENTS DE 70KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS. LE DEPLACEMENT DE
FREDDY EST PILOTE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR
L'AFRIQUE QUI SE PROLONGE AU SUD DE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE ET LA MISE EN
PLACE PLUS FRANCHE DE LA DORSALE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. ON OBSERVE
UNE FAIBLE DISPERSION DES MODELES SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
NORD-OUEST POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H. PUIS LA DISPERSION AUGMENTE AU
MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE DE FREDDY SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE AVEC
DES DIFFERENCES EN POSITION MAIS AVEC MOINS DE DIFFERENCES DANS LE
TIMING. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN CONSENSUS DES DIFFERENTS SCENARIO
DISPONIBLES AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE
PROBABLEMENT DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI ENTRE LA PROVINCE DE
ZAMBEZE ET LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY EST TOUJOURS DANS UNE ZONE AVEC UNE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE MARQUEE DE SECTEUR SUD.
CETTE CONTRAINTE POURRAIT ENGENDRER UN TILT DE LA STRUCTURE SUR LA
VERTICALE ET PERMETTRE A DE L'AIR SEC DE SE RAPPROCHER DU CENTRE.
FREDDY DEVRAIT DONC PERDRE ENCORE EN INTENSITE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H, ET ETRE TEMPORAIREMENT REDROGRADE AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE. PUIS A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, MALGRE LE MAINTIENT
DU CISAILLEMENT, FREDDY POURRAIT RENCONTRER DES EAUX PLUS CHAUDES
AVEC UNE MEILLEURE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DONC S'INTENSIFIER DE
NOUVEAU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. PUIS LE WEEK-END PROCHAIN, FREDDY DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR SUR TERRE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE ET SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA,
PUIS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS L'APRES-MIDI OU SOIREE.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M A 1M50 EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR LA COTE.
CUMULS ATTENDUS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM, LOCALEMENT 200 MM PROCHE
DU COEUR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 68/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 40.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 155 SW: 195 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/09 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/09 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/10 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2023/03/10 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

60H: 2023/03/11 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2023/03/11 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/12 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, FREDDY HAS CONTINUED TO BE IMPACTED BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR WITH A CDO PATTERN ON THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY.
THE MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1048Z CLEARLY SHOWS CONVECTION REJECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND DRY AIR REACHING FROM THE
SOUTH. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSES, THE INTENSITY OF FREDDY IS DECREASED WITH WINDS OF 70KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE CHANGE. THE DISPLACEMENT OF FREDDY IS
DRIVEN BY THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AFRICA THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND THE MORE PRONOUNCED
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. WE OBSERVE A
WEAK DISPERSION OF THE MODELS ON THIS TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN THE DISPERSION INCREASES AT THE TIME OF THE
LANDING OF FREDDY ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE WITH DIFFERENCES IN
POSITION BUT WITH LESS DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. THE RMSC FORECAST IS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AVAILABLE WITH A LANDING ON THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST PROBABLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN ZAMBEZE PROVINCE
AND SOFALA PROVINCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY IS STILL IN AN AREA WITH A SHEAR
CONSTRAINT OF MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE MARKED FROM SOUTH. THIS STRESS COULD
CAUSE THE STRUCTURE TO TILT VERTICALLY AND ALLOW DRY AIR TO APPROACH
THE CENTER. FREDDY SHOULD THEREFORE LOSE MORE INTENSITY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, AND BE TEMPORARILY DOWNGRADED TO A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM. THEN FROM THURSDAY EVENING, IN SPITE OF THE MAINTENANCE OF THE
SHEAR, FREDDY COULD MEET WARMER WATERS WITH A BETTER DIVERGENCE OF
ALTITUDE AND THUS TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE ITS LANDING ON THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. THEN NEXT WEEKEND,
FREDDY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN THE MORNING OF FRIDAY OVER
ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED
BY STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
* SEA STATE DEGRADATION WITH SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A SURGE OF ABOUT 1M TO
1M50 IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM ON THE COAST.
EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 100 TO 150 MM, LOCALLY 200 MM NEAR THE HEART.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 081218
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 065/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 08/03/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 40.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP 150 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/09 AT 00 UTC:
20.6 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/09 AT 12 UTC:
20.0 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080619
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 67/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.8 S / 40.6 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2023 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 09/03/2023 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 205 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

36H: 09/03/2023 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 35

48H: 10/03/2023 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 10/03/2023 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 11/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 13/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, FREDDY A PERDU SA CONFIGURATION EN
OEIL AU PROFIL D'UNE CONFIGURATION EN CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE, SOUS
L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE SUD QUI SE RENFORCE. DANS LE MEME
TEMPS, LA TEMPERATURE DU SOMMET DES NUAGES S'EST TRES LEGEREMENT
REFROIDIE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0615 A PERMIS DE PLACER LE CENTRE A 50
MILLES NAUTIQUES A L'EST DE BASSAS DA INDIA ET 45 MN AU NORD-NORD-EST
DE EUROPA. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES, FREDDY EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVEC
DES VENTS DE 75KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE DEPLACEMENT DE FREDDY EST PILOTE PAR LA
PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SUR L'AFRIQUE QUI SE PROLONGE AU
SUD DE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE ET LA MISE EN PLACE PLUS FRANCHE DE LA
DORSALE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. ON OBSERVE UNE FAIBLE DISPERSION DES
MODELES SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST POUR LES PROCHAINES
24-36H. PUIS LA DISPERSION AUGMENTE AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE DE
FREDDY SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE AVEC DES DIFFERENCES EN TIMING
MAIS AUSSI EN POSITION. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN CONSENSUS DES
DIFFERENTS SCENARIO DISPONIBLES AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SUR LES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE PROBABLEMENT DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI
ENTRE LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZE ET LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY ENTRE DANS UNE ZONE AVEC UNE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PLUS MARQUEE DE SECTEUR SUD. CETTE
CONTRAINTE POURRAIT ENGENDRER UN TILT DE LA STRUCTURE SUR LA
VERTICALE ET PERMETTRE A DE L'AIR SEC DE SE RAPPROCHER DU CENTRE.
FREDDY POURRAIT DONC PERDRE UN PEU D'INTENSITE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H, VOIRE ETRE TEMPORAIREMENT REDROGRADE AU STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. PUIS A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, MALGRE LE
MAINTIENT DU CISAILLEMENT, FREDDY POURRAIT RENCONTRER DES EAUX PLUS
CHAUDES AVEC UNE MEILLEURE DIVERGENCE D'ALTTUDE ET DONC S'INTENSIFIER
DE NOUVEAU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE. PUIS LE WEEK-END PROCHAIN, FREDDY DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR SUR TERRE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN MATINEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE ET SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA,
PUIS DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS L'APRES-MIDI OU SOIREE.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M A 1M50 EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR LA COTE.
CUMULS ATTENDUS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM, LOCALEMENT 200 MM PROCHE
DU COEUR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080619
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 67/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 40.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/08 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/09 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/09 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 35

48H: 2023/03/10 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2023/03/10 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2023/03/11 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/12 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/03/13 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 35.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, FREDDY HAS LOST ITS EYE PATTERN IN PROFILE
OF A CENTER PATTERN DROWNED UNDER THE MASS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
SOUTH WIND SHEAR WHICH IS STRENGTHENING. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS HAS COOLED VERY SLIGHTLY. THE
ASCAT PASS OF 0615 PLACED THE CENTER 50 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF BASSAS
DA INDIA AND 45 MN NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, FREDDY IS MAINTAINED AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 75KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE MOVEMENT OF FREDDY IS DRIVEN BY THE PRESENCE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AFRICA THAT EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND THE MORE PRONOUNCED ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. WE OBSERVE A WEAK DISPERSION OF THE MODELS
ON THIS TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24-36H. THEN THE
DISPERSION INCREASES AT THE TIME OF THE LANDING OF FREDDY ON THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BUT ALSO IN POSITION.
THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AVAILABLE
WITH A LANDFALL ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST PROBABLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT
BETWEEN ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND SOFALA PROVINCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY ENTERS AN AREA WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWARD WIND SHEAR OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. THIS CONSTRAINT COULD
GENERATE A TILT OF THE STRUCTURE ON THE VERTICAL AND ALLOW DRY AIR TO
APPROACH THE CENTER. FREDDY COULD THEREFORE LOSE SOME INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND EVEN BE TEMPORARILY DOWNGRADED TO A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THEN FROM THURSDAY EVENING, IN SPITE OF THE
MAINTENANCE OF THE SHEAR, FREDDY COULD MEET WARMER WATERS WITH A
BETTER DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE AND THUS TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AT THE
STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL ON THE COASTS OF
MOZAMBIQUE. THEN NEXT WEEKEND, FREDDY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN THE MORNING OF FRIDAY OVER
ZAMBEZE PROVINCE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE, FOLLOWED
BY STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
* SEA STATE DEGRADATION WITH SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A SURGE OF ABOUT 1M TO
1M50 IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM ON THE COAST.
EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 100 TO 150 MM, LOCALLY 200 MM NEAR THE HEART.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 080611
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 064/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 08/03/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 40.6 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP 110 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
21.0 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
20.3 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080051
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 66/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 41.0 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2023 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 09/03/2023 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 09/03/2023 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 10/03/2023 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 10/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 11/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 0

120H: 13/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

FREDDY A GARDE UNE SOLIDE CONFIGURATION EN A IL AU COURS DE LA NUIT,
MALGRA LA PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SUD, ESTIMEE ENTRE
10 ET 15KT SELON LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DU CIMSS. L'ACCA LA RATION DU
SYSTEME EN DIRECTION DU NORD-OUEST POURRAIT EXPLIQUER CETTE
RESISTANCE. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNA ES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES, IL N'EST
PAS POSSIBLE D'ESTIMER L'EFFET DE CETTE CONTRAINTE SUR LA STRUCTURE
INTERNE DU SYSTEME. L'INTENSITE DE FREDDY S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC UN DT
MOYENNE SUR 3H DE L'ORDRE DE 5.0+. CETTE ESTIMATION SUBJECTIVE EST
TRES LEGEREMENT EN DESSOUS DES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES (ADT/AIDT) ET
RESTE PROCHE DES ESTIMATIONS DES AGENCES AMERICAINES. L'ANALYSE DES
EXTENSIONS DES VENTS A PU ETRE REACTUALISA E SELON LA PASSE DE 1543Z
D'UNE RCM2 - VH, QUI VALIDE EGALEMENT LE VENT MOYEN ESTIME A 80KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES SEMBLE DESORMAIS MOINS IMPORTANTE, MAIS
QUELQUES DIFFERENCES PERSISTENT EN TERMES DE TIMING, NOTAMMENT POUR
LA PHASE D'ATTERRISSAGE. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A 48H, ON OBSERVE
GLOBALEMENT UNE ASSEZ FAIBLE DISPERSION. AU-DELA, LA DISPERSION
DEVIENT PLUS IMPORTANTE, MEME SI L'ON NOTE TOUTEFOIS UN CONSENS
GLOBAL ALLANT VERS UN IMPACT DIRECT D'ICI VENDREDI OU DANS LA NUIT DE
VENDREDI A SAMEDI SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE, PROBABLEMENT SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE. FREDDY DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UN DEPLACEMENT
REGULIER EN DIRECTION DU NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'IMPULSION DU
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET DE LA MISE EN PLACE
PLUS FRANCHE DE LA DORSALE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME.

LE MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME S'EFFECTUE DANS UN CONTEXTE
MODERE DE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR SUD . CETTE CONTRAINTE NE
SEMBLE PAS AFFECTER LE SYSTEME, POUR LE MOMENT, ALORS QUE CELUI-CI SE
DEPLACE AU NORD-OUEST. TOUTEFOIS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48 H LE
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT AUGMENTER LEGEREMENT ET
POURRAIT ENGENDRER UN TILT DE LA STRUCTURE SUR LA VERTICALE ET DONC
FREINER VOIRE STOPPER MOMENTANA MENT LE POTENTIEL DE FREDDY. A PARTIR
DE JEUDI SOIR, MALGRE LE MAINTIEN DU CISAILLEMENT, FREDDY DEVRAIT
S'INTENSIFIER A NOUVEAU GRACE A LA DISPONIBILITE D'UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN HAUSSE ET D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, SUGGERANT
AINSI UN ATTERRISSAGE, POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
SUR LA PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE, VENDREDI SOIR, VOIRE DANS LA NUIT DE
VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
LES EFFETS DE FREDDY SERONT CONTENUS DU FAIT DE LA TAILLE REDUITE DU
SYSTEME.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE VOIRE POSSIBLEMENT SUR LA PARTIE NORD DE LA
PROVINCE DE SOFALA.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC UNE MER DEVENANT TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 ENTRE 4 ET 6 M). UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M A 1M50 EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
ET NUIT SUIVANTE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME SUR LA COTE.
CUMULS ATTENDUS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM, LOCALEMENT 200 MM PROCHE
DU COEUR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080051
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 66/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 41.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/08 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/09 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2023/03/09 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2023/03/10 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2023/03/10 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2023/03/11 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/12 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 0

120H: 2023/03/13 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

FREDDY HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG EYE PATTERN OVERNIGHT, DESPITE THE
PERSISTENCE OF A MODERATE SOUTHERLY VWS, ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15KT
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE ACCELERATION OF THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST COULD EXPLAIN THIS RESISTANCE. GIVEN THE
LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA, IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO ESTIMATE THE
EFFECT OF THIS VWS ON THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH AN AVERAGE DT OVER 3H OF ABOUT
5.0+. THIS SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATE IS VERY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDELINES (ADT/AIDT) AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATES OF THE
AMERICAN AGENCIES. THE ANALYSIS OF THE WIND EXTENSIONS HAS BEEN
UPDATED ACCORDING TO THE 1543Z RCM2 VH SWATH, WHICH ALSO VALIDATES
THE ESTIMATED AVERAGE WIND SPEED AT 80KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTING. THE DISPERSION OF THE
MODELS SEEMS TO BE LESS IMPORTANT NOW, BUT SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
TERMS OF TIMING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LANDING PHASE. DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS, WE OBSERVE A RATHER WEAK DISPERSION. BEYOND THAT, THE
DISPERSION BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT, EVEN IF THERE IS A GLOBAL
CONSENSUS TOWARDS A DIRECT IMPACT BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE, PROBABLY OVER THE ZAMBEZE DISTRICT. FREDDY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY MOTION, DRIVEN BY THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND THE MORE
DEFINITE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.

THE MAINTENANCE OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CARRIED OUT IN A
SOUTHERLY MODERATE VWS . THIS VWS DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM,
FOR THE MOMENT, AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS, THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC VWS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND COULD
GENERATE A TILT OF THE STRUCTURE ON THE VERTICAL AND THUS SLOW DOWN
OR EVEN STOP MOMENTARILY THE POTENTIAL OF INTENSITY. FROM THURSDAY
EVENING, IN SPITE OF THE MAINTENANCE OF THE VWS, FREDDY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AGAIN THANKS TO THE AVAILABILITY OF A GOOD OCEANIC HEAT
POTENTIAL AND A NICE UPPER DIVERGENCE, SUGGESTING A LANDING,
POTENTIALLY AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE ZAMBEZE DISTRICT,
ON FRIDAY EVENING, OR EVEN DURING THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
FREDDY'S EFFECTS WILL BE CONTAINED DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* THE GALE FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY TO HIT THE ZAMBEZE DISTRICT AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA DISTRICT ON FRIDAY.
* DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITION OF THE SEA STATE WITH A SEA BECOMING
VERY ROUGH ON FRIDAY (H1/3 BETWEEN 4 AND 6 M). A SURGE OF ABOUT 1M TO
1M50 IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING ZONE.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM ON THE COAST.
EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 100 TO 150 MM, LOCALLY 200 MM NEAR THE HEART.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 080010
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 063/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 08/03/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 41.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP 110 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/08 AT 12 UTC:
21.4 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/09 AT 00 UTC:
20.7 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071845
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 65/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.8 S / 41.7 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 425 SO: 445 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 220 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2023 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 08/03/2023 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 09/03/2023 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 09/03/2023 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 10/03/2023 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 10/03/2023 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 0

120H: 12/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE FREDDY A
NON SEULEMENT PERSISTEE MAIS A GAGNE EN DEFINITION, AVEC UN OEIL QUI
S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT RECHAUFFE DEPUIS 16Z, AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX
QUI SE SONT REFROIDIS. LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES INSTANTANEES
POINTENT DEPUIS 16Z UN DT DE L'ORDRE DE 5.5, TOUTEFOIS L'ESTIMATION
MOYENNEE SUR 3H PENCHE PLUTA T POUR UN DT DE 5.0+, SUPPORTE PAR
L'ENSEMBLE DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES ET DES ESTIMATIONS DES
AGENCES ETRANGERES. FREDDY RESTE DONC AU STADE MATURE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL, AVEC UNE INTENSITE PORTEE A 80 NOEUDS.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE DELICATE, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE
TIMING. AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A 48H, ON OBSERVE GLOBALEMENT UNE
ASSEZ FAIBLE DISPERSION. AU-DELA, LA DISPERSION DEVIENT PLUS
IMPORTANTE, MEME SI L'ON NOTE TOUTEFOIS UN CONSENS GLOBAL ALLANT VERS
UN IMPACT DIRECT D'ICI VENDREDI OU DANS LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI
SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE, PROBABLEMENT SUR LA PROVINCE DU
ZAMBEZE.
FREDDY DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UN DEPLACEMENT REGULIER EN DIRECTION DU
NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'IMPULSION DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET DE LA MISE EN PLACE PLUS FRANCHE DE LA DORSALE
A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS PRESENTE UN
COMPROMIS DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES DONT UN COMPROMIS
GFS/IFS SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE LA PERIODE.

L'INTENSIFICATION EN COURS S'EFFECTUE DANS UN CONTEXTE MODERE DE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR SUD (DE L'ORDRE DE DE 13 KT SELON LE
CIMSS A 12Z). CETTE CONTRAINTE NE SEMBLE PAS AFFECTER OUTRE MESURE LE
SYSTEME, ALORS QUE CELUI-CI SE DEPLACE AU NORD-OUEST. TOUTEFOIS AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 48 H LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYEN TROPOSPHERE
DEVRAIT AUGMENTER LEGEREMENT ET DONC FREINER VOIRE STOPPER MOMENTANA
MENT LE POTENTIEL DE FREDDY. A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, MALGRE LE
MAINTIEN DU CISAILLEMENT, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER A NOUVEAU
GRACE A UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN HAUSSE, SUGGERANT AINSI UN
ATTERRISSAGE, POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL SUR LES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI, VOIRE DANS LA NUIT DE
VENDREDI A SAMEDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR :
* AMELERIORATION EN COURS: LES PLUIES ADDITIONNELLES ATTENDUES SUR LE
LONG DE LA CA TE OUEST DE MADAGASCAR NE DEVRAIENT PLUS DEPASSER LES
100 MM EN 24H, ET SONT DAVANTAGE DEPORTEES EN MER AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT
DU SYSTEME.
* FIN DU COUP DE VENT SUR LA PORTION NORD DE LA REGION DE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* ETAT DE MER ENCORE TRES FORTE AU LARGE DU LITTORAL DE LA REGION
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. AMELIORATION NETTE AU COURS DE CETTE NUIT AVEC LE
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME.

- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE (PROBABILITE SUP. A 60%) VOIRE POSSIBLEMENT SUR
LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA (PROBABILITE DE L'ORDRE DE
20-30%).
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC MER POUVANT DEVENIR TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 POUVANT ATTEINDRE ET
DEPASSER 6M). UNE SURCOTE DE L'ODRE DE 1M EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE
LA ZONE D'ATERRISSAGE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU CYCLONE SUR LA COTE. CUMULS ATTENDUS SUR
TOUT L'EPISODE A PRECISER ULTERIEUREMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 65/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 41.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 425 SW: 445 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 220 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/08 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/08 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2023/03/09 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2023/03/09 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2023/03/10 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2023/03/10 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/11 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 0

120H: 2023/03/12 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, FREDDY'S EYE PATTERN HAS NOT ONLY PERSISTED
BUT HAS GAINED IN DEFINITION, WITH AN EYE THAT HAS PROGRESSIVELY
WARMED SINCE 16Z, WITH CLOUDY TOPS THAT HAVE COOLED. INSTANTANEOUS
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS SHOWS A DT OF AROUND 5.5 SINCE 16Z,
HOWEVER THE 3H AVERAGE ESTIMATE IS MORE FOR A DT OF 5.0+, SUPPORTED
BY ALL THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AND FOREIGN AGENCY ESTIMATES.
FREDDY REMAINS A MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH AN INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS.

THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS COMPLEX, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF TIMING.
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, WE OBSERVE A RATHER WEAK DISPERSION.
BEYOND THAT, THE DISPERSION BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT, EVEN IF THERE IS
A GLOBAL CONSENSUS TOWARDS A DIRECT IMPACT BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT ON THE MOZAMBIQUE LAND, PROBABLY ON THE ZAMBEZE PROVINCE.
FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY MOTION, DRIVEN
BY THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND THE
MORE PRONOUNCED ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE PRESENT CMRS FORECAST PRESENTS A COMPROMISE OF THE LAST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING A GFS/IFS COMPROMISE OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD.

THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION IS TAKING PLACE IN A CONTEXT OF MODERATE
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (OF THE ORDER OF 13 KT ACCORDING TO THE
CIMSS AT 12Z). THIS CONSTRAINT DOES NOT SEEM TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM TOO
MUCH, WHILE IT IS MOVING NORTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER, DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) SHOULD INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AND THUS SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STOP THE POTENTIAL OF FREDDY.
FROM THURSDAY EVENING, IN SPITE OF THE MAINTENANCE OF THE VWS, FREDDY
SHOULD INTENSIFY AGAIN THANKS TO AN INCREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL,
THUS SUGGESTING A LANDING, POTENTIALLY AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE DURING TFRIDAY, OR EVEN DURING
THE NIGHT OF FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

MPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MADAGASCAR :
* IMPROVEMENT IN PROGRESS: ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD NOT EXCEED 100 MM IN 24 HOURS, AND IS
MORE CARRIED OUT AT SEA WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
* END OF THE GALE FORCE WIND OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.
* SEA STATE STILL VERY STRONG OFF THE COAST OF THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA
REGION. CLEAR IMPROVEMENT DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM.

- MOZAMBIQUE :
* PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON FRIDAY OVER ZAMBEZE
PROVINCE (PROBABILITY MORE THAN 60%) AND POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE (PROBABILITY AROUND 20-30%).
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH SEAS THAT COULD BECOME VERY ROUGH
TO HEAVY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 COULD REACH AND EXCEED 6M). A
SURGE OF ABOUT 1M IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDING ZONE.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE HEART OF THE CYCLONE ON THE COAST. EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE TO BE SPECIFIED LATER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 071814
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 062/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 07/03/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 41.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/08 AT 06 UTC:
21.8 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
20.9 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 071500 PAA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230307134754
2023030712 11S FREDDY 051 01 325 05 SATL SYNP 010
T000 230S 0421E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 221S 0415E 090 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 213S 0407E 095 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 206S 0400E 100 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 199S 0394E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 186S 0383E 105 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 176S 0375E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 171S 0366E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 051
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 051
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 23.0S 42.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 42.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.1S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.3S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.6S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.9S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.6S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.6S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 17.1S 36.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 42.0E.
07MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.
//
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1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022206 217S 450E 45
1123022212 221S 434E 25
1123022218 220S 424E 30
1123022300 222S 413E 30
1123022306 224S 404E 40
1123022312 226S 396E 55
1123022312 226S 396E 55
1123022318 228S 387E 55
1123022318 228S 387E 55
1123022400 225S 376E 60
1123022400 225S 376E 60
1123022406 225S 364E 60
1123022406 225S 364E 60
1123022412 226S 351E 50
1123022412 226S 351E 50
1123022418 226S 345E 45
1123022500 226S 338E 40
1123022506 228S 333E 30
1123022512 229S 331E 30

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071238
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 64/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.1 S / 42.1 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 967 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 425 SO: 445 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SO: 220 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2023 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 08/03/2023 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 09/03/2023 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 09/03/2023 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 10/03/2023 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 10/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 295 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 0

120H: 12/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

FREDDY A COMMENCE A DEVELOPPER UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL PLUS PERENNE
DEPUIS 0745Z AVEC DES ANALYSES BRUTES QUI EN MOYENNE SUR 3H ONT DONNE
UN DT A UN PEU PLUS DE 4.5. SUR LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES, L'ANALYSE
ATMS DE S-NPP DE 1033Z ET L'AIDT UN PEU AVANT 12Z PLAIDENT EGALEMENT
POUR UNE ANALYSE D'INTENSITE A 70 KT.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST SENSIBLEMENT PLUS RAPIDE QUE LA
PRECEDENTE ET REFLETE LE CONSENSUS GRANDISSANT AVEC LES RUNS DE 00Z
ET 06Z SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME JUSQU'AU COTES
MOZAMBICAINES: SOUS L'IMPULSION DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET DE LA MISE EN PLACE PLUS FRANCHE DE LA DORSALE
A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME, FREDDY A ENTAME UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE
NORD-OUEST QU'IL DEVRAIT CONSERVER DURABLEMENT. MEME SI IL N'Y A PAS
ENCORE UN ACCORD UNANIME SUR L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES, LES MODELES
EUROPEENS ET AMERICAINS SONT MAINTENANT EN TRES BON ACCORD SUR LE
TIMING DE L'ARRIVEE DE FREDDY SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES. LA
PRESENTE PREVISION REFLETE COMPLETEMENT UN COMPROMIS GFS/IFS SUR
L'ENSEMBLE DE LA PERIODE. L'ARRIVEE DE FREDDY SUR LES COTES
MOZAMBICAINES EST MAINTENANT PREVUE POUR VENDREDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE
OU DEBUT DE NUIT SUIVANTE.

L'INTENSIFICATION TOUJOURS EN COURS S'EFFECTUE DANS UN CONTEXTE DE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PLUTOT FAIBLE (ABAISSE A 7 KT DE SECTEUR SUD
SELON LE CIMSS A 06Z). TOUTEFOIS D'ICI DEMAIN, UN CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR SUD DEVRAIT IMPACTER PENDANT ENVIRON
48H FREDDY. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE CONTINUE D'ENVISAGER UN IMPACT
POSSIBLE DE CETTE CONTRAINTE POUVANT FAIRE FLUCTUER L'INTENSITE DE
FREDDY: POURSUITE POSSIBLE DE L'INTENSIFICATION LA NUIT PROCHAINE
PUIS LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT POSSIBLE / STABILISATION DE L'INTENSITE,
MERCREDI ET JEUDI SOUS LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI
SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT S'ESTOMPE ET AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN
HAUSSE, FREDDY POURRAIT S'INTENSIFIER D'AVANTAGE LORSQU'IL
S'APPROCHERA DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR :
* AMELERIORATION EN COURS: LES PLUIES ADDITIONNELLES ATTENDUES SUR
MADAGASCAR NE DEVRAIENT PLUS DEPASSER LES 100 MM EN 24H, SAUF
LOCALEMENT SUR LE NORD DE LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* COUP DE VENT SUR LA PORTION NORD DE LA REGION DE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA
POUR LES PROCHAINES 06/12H. FIN DU COUP DE VENT LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
* ETAT DE MER ENCORE TRES FORTE SUR UNE PORTION NORD DU LITTORAL DE
LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. AMELIORATION LA NUIT PROCHAINE.

- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE (PROBABILITE SUP. A 60%) VOIRE POSSIBLEMENT SUR
LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA (PROBABILITE DE L'ORDRE DE
20-30%).
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC MER POUVANT DEVENIR TRES FORTE A
GROSSE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI (H1/3 POUVANT ATTEINDRE ET
DEPASSER 6M). UNE SURCOTE DE L'ODRE DE 1M EST POSSIBLE A PROXIMITE DE
LA ZONE D'ATERRISSAGE.
* EPISODE DE FORTES PLUIES PROBABLE EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI
AVEC L'ARRIVEE DU COEUR DU CYCLONE SUR LA COTE. CUMULS ATTENDUS SUR
TOUT L'EPISODE A PRECISER ULTERIEUREMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 64/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 42.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 425 SW: 445 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 220 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/08 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/08 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2023/03/09 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2023/03/09 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2023/03/10 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2023/03/10 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 295 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/11 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 0

120H: 2023/03/12 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

FREDDY HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP A MORE PERENNIAL EYE PATTERN SINCE
0745Z WITH RAW DT ANALYSIS THAT AVERAGED OVER 3H GAVE A DT AT JUST
OVER 4.5. ON THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, THE ATMS ANALYSIS OF S-NPP FROM
1033Z AND THE AIDT A LITTLE BEFORE 12Z ALSO PLEAD FOR AN INTENSITY
ANALYSIS AT 70 KT.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
REFLECTS THE GROWING CONSENSUS WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS ON THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO THE MOZAMBICAN COAST: UNDER THE IMPULSE
OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND THE
CLEARER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, FREDDY
HAS BEGUN A NORTH-WESTERN MOVEMENT WHICH IT SHOULD MAINTAIN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN IF THERE IS NOT YET A UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT ON
ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN MODELS ARE NOW
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF FREDDY ON THE
MOZAMBICAN COAST. THE PRESENT FORECAST FULLY REFLECTS A GFS/IFS
COMPROMISE OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD. THE ARRIVAL OF FREDDY ON THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTS IS NOW EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AT THE END OF THE DAY OR
BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.

THE INTENSIFICATION STILL IN PROGRESS IS CARRIED OUT IN A CONTEXT OF
RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR (LOWERED TO 7 KT FROM THE SOUTH ACCORDING
TO THE CIMSS AT 06Z). HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW, A MID TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR
FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD IMPACT FREDDY FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CONSIDER A POSSIBLE IMPACT OF THIS CONSTRAINT
WHICH CAN MAKE THE INTENSITY OF FREDDY FLUCTUATE: POSSIBLE
CONTINUATION OF THE INTENSIFICATION NEXT NIGHT THEN POSSIBLE SLIGHT
WEAKENING / STABILIZATION OF THE INTENSITY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
UNDER THE SHEARED CONSTRAINT. FROM THURSDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR FADES
AND WITH AN INCREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL, FREDDY COULD INTENSIFY
FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST ON FRIDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MADAGASCAR :
* IMPROVEMENT IN PROGRESS: ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER
MADAGASCAR SHOULD NOT EXCEED 100 MM IN 24 HOURS, EXCEPT LOCALLY OVER
THE NORTH OF THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.
* GALE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION FOR THE NEXT
06/12H. END OF THE GALE NEXT NIGHT.
* SEA STATE STILL VERY STRONG ON A NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COASTLINE
OF THE REGION OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. IMPROVEMENT NEXT NIGHT.

- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY OVER ZAMBEZE PROVINCE (PROBABILITY
OVER 60%) AND POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF SOFALA PROVINCE
(PROBABILITY OF 20-30%).
* DEGRADATION OF THE SEA STATE WITH SEAS THAT COULD BECOME VERY ROUGH
TO HEAVY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (H1/3 COULD REACH AND EXCEED 6M). A
SURGE OF ABOUT 1M IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
* HEAVY RAIN EPISODE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE INNER CORE OF THE CYCLONE ON THE COAST. TOTAL STORM RAINFALL
TO BE SPECIFIED LATER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 071222
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 061/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 07/03/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 967 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 42.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 190 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 340 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/08 AT 00 UTC:
22.2 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/08 AT 12 UTC:
21.3 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070649
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 63/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.4 S / 42.2 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 425 SO: 445 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SO: 305 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 08/03/2023 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45

36H: 08/03/2023 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 09/03/2023 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45

60H: 09/03/2023 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 10/03/2023 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 12/03/2023 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

DEPUIS LA FIN DE NUIT, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A CONTINUE A
S'AMELIORER AVEC UN OEIL MAL DEFINI QUI A COMMENCE A APPARAITRE AU
SEIN DU CDO. CELUI-CI A TOUTEFOIS DISPARU APRES 04Z. LES DERNIERES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (AMSR2 DE 2154Z, SSMIS DE 01Z) TEMOIGNAIENT D'UNE
AMELIORATION NOTABLE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. L'INTENSITE A 60 KT EST
BASEE SUR L'ESTIMATION SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK (FMEE ET SAB A 4.0, PGTW
A 4.5) ET EST TOUT A FAIT COHERENTE AVEC L'ESTIMATION OBJECTIVE AIDT
(65-70 KT 1-MIN A 0530Z). L'XTENSION DU COUP DE VENT A ETE REVUE DANS
LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST SUR LA BASE DES OBSERVATIONS DE L'ILE
D'EUROPA.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
- LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST UN PEU PLUS LENTE QUE LA PRECEDENTE
AU-DELA DE H+24 : SOUS L'IMPULSION DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET DE LA MISE EN PLACE PLUS FRANCHE DE LA DORSALE
A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME, FREDDY A ENTAME UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE
NORD-OUEST QU'IL DEVRAIT CONSERVER DURABLEMENT. LA DISPERSION ENTRE
LES MODELES RESTE TOUTEFOIS ENCORE FORTE POUR LA SUITE DE LA SEMAINE,
PRINCIPALEMENT EN CE QUI CONCERNE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS.
SELON LA PRESENTE PREVISION, FREDDY POURRAIT ATTERRIR SUR LES COTES
DU MOZAMBIQUE A ECHEANCE DE LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI OU SAMEDI
MATIN BIEN QU'A CES ECHEANCES ET SUIVANT L'INCERTITUDE ACTUELLE, UN
DECALAGE DE +/-12 HEURES EST A PRENDRE EN COMPTE.

L'INTENSIFICATION OPEREE CE MATIN S'EST EFFECTUEE DANS UN CONTEXTE DE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PLUTOT FAIBLE (DE L'ORDRE DE 10 KT DE SUD-OUEST
SELON LE CIMSS A 00Z). TOUTEFOIS D'ICI DEMAIN, UN CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR SUD DEVRAIT IMPACTER PENDANT ENVIRON
48H FREDDY. EN CONSEQUENCE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE A ETE AJUSTEE:
POURSUITE POSSIBLE DE L'INTENSIFICATION A COURT TERME JUSQU'AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, PUIS LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT POSSIBLE /
STABILISATION DE L'INTENSITE, MERCREDI ET JEUDI SOUS LA CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT S'ESTOMPE ET AVEC
UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN HAUSSE, FREDDY POURRAIT S'INTENSIFIER
D'AVANTAGE LORSQU'IL S'APPROCHERA DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE EN JOURNEE
DE VENDREDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR :
* AMELERIORATION EN COURS: LES PLUIES ADDITIONNELLES ATTENDUES SUR
MADAGASCAR NE DEVRAIENT PLUS DEPASSER LES 100 MM EN 24H
* COUP DE VENT SUR LA PORTION NORD DE LA REGION DE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA
POUR LES PROCHAINES 06/12H. FIN DU COUP DE VENT LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
* ETAT DE MER ENCORE TRES FORTE SUR UNE PORTION NORD DU LITTORAL DE
LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. AMELIORATION LA NUIT PROCHAINE.

- MOZAMBIQUE :
* ARRIVEE POSSIBLE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DU ZAMBEZE VOIRE LA PARTIE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE SOFALA.
* DEGRADATION DE L'ETAT DE MER AVEC MER POUVANT DEVENIR TRES FORTE
(H1/3 SUP A 4M) EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 63/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 42.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 425 SW: 445 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/07 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2023/03/08 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/08 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2023/03/09 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

60H: 2023/03/09 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2023/03/10 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2023/03/12 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

SINCE THE END OF THE NIGHT, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE WITH AN ILL-DEFINED EYE STARTING TO APPEAR WITHIN THE CDO.
THIS ONE DISAPPEARED HOWEVER AFTER 04Z. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES
(AMSR2 FROM 2154Z, SSMIS FROM 01Z) SHOWED A NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT OF
THE INNER CORE. THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK'S
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATE (FMEE AND SAB AT 4.0, PGTW AT 4.5) AND IS QUITE
COHERENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE AIDT ESTIMATE (65-70 KT 1-MIN AT 0530Z).
THE GALE EXTENT HAS BEEN REVISED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS FROM EUROPA ISLAND.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST - THE TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER H+24: UNDER
THE IMPULSE OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND OF THE CLEARER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM, FREDDY HAS STARTED A NORTH-WESTERN MOVEMENT WHICH IT
SHOULD MAINTAIN FOR A LONG TIME. THE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE MODELS IS
STILL STRONG FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, MAINLY CONCERNING THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS. ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT FORECAST, FREDDY COULD MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE COASTS OF MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH AT THESE TIMES AND ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT
UNCERTAINTY, A SHIFT OF +/-12 HOURS IS TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT.

THE INTENSIFICATION THIS MORNING TOOK PLACE IN A CONTEXT OF RATHER
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR (OF THE ORDER OF 10 KT OF SOUTH-WEST ACCORDING TO
THE CIMSS AT 00Z). HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW, A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR
FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD IMPACT FREDDY FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY,
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED: POSSIBLE CONTINUATION OF
THE INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM UNTIL THE STAGE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE, THEN POSSIBLE SLIGHT WEAKENING / STABILIZATION OF THE
INTENSITY, ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT. FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS, THE SHEAR FADES AND WITH AN INCREASING
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, FREDDY COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES
THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST ON FRIDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MADAGASCAR :
* IMPROVEMENT IN PROGRESS: ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER
MADAGASCAR SHOULD NOT EXCEED 100 MM IN 24 HOURS
* GALE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION FOR THE NEXT
06/12H. END OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT.
* SEA STATE STILL VERY STRONG ON A NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COAST OF
THE REGION OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT.

- MOZAMBIQUE :
* POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON FRIDAY OVER THE PROVINCE OF
ZAMBEZE AND EVEN POTENTIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PROVINCE
OF SOFALA.
* SEA STATE DEGRADATION WITH SEA THAT MAY BECOME VERY ROUGH
(SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT AT OR GREATER THAN 4M) ON FRIDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 070622
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 060/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 07/03/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 42.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/07 AT 18 UTC:
22.5 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/08 AT 06 UTC:
21.6 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070005
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 62/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 42.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 425 SO: 295 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 165 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 40 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 08/03/2023 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 08/03/2023 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 09/03/2023 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 09/03/2023 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 10/03/2023 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 12/03/2023 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUE EST RESTEE
EN CDO MAIS AVEC DES SOMMETS QUI SE SONT NETTEMENT REFROIDIS. MALGRE
LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES GCOM DE 2154UTC, LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE DE
CIRCULATION RESTE ASSEZ DELICATE MAIS SEMBLE LOCALISE DANS LA
FAIBLESSE APPARAISSANT RECEMMENT DANS L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. CETTE
FAIBLESSE POURRAIT ETRE LES SIGNES DE L'APPARITION PROCHAINE D'UN
OEIL. L'ANALYSE DVORAK PERMET D'AUGMENTER LEGEREMENT L'INTENSITE DES
VENTS A 55KT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION : SOUS L'IMPULSION DU
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET DE LA MISE EN PLACE
PLUS FRANCHE DE LA DORSALE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME, FREDDY A ENTAME UN
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST QU'IL DEVRAIT CONSERVER DURABLEMENT.
LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES RESTE TOUTEFOIS ENCORE FORTE POUR LA
SUITE DE LA SEMAINE, PRINCIPALEMENT EN CE QUI CONCERNE LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT. LA PREVISION DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS ET RESTE ASSEZ PROCHE DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE
DU MODELE DU CEPMMT. SELON LA PRESENTE PREVISION, FREDDY POURRAIT
ATTERRIR SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE A ECHEANCE DE LA NUIT DE
VENDREDI A SAMEDI, BIEN QU'A CES ECHEANCES ET SUIVANT L'INCERTITUDE
ACTUELLE, UN DECALAGE DE +/-12 HEURES EST A PRENDRE EN COMPTE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY CONTINUE DE
BENEFICIER ACTUELLEMENT DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT
FAVORABLES AVEC UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE D'OUEST QUI
S'ESTOMPE. DANS CES CONDITIONS ATMOSPHERIQUES ET AVEC UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE MODESTE, L'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT RESTER LENTE MAIS
DURABLE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, L'AMELIORATION DE
L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE L'AUGMENTATION DU TAUX
D'INTENCIFICATION, POUR ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE JUSTE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR :
* FORTES PLUIES DANS LES PROCHAINES 36H SUR LA FRANGE COTIERE DES
REGIONS SUD MENABE ET ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. CUMULS TOTAUX SUR L'EPISODE
ALLANT PROCHE DE 100 MM LOCALEMENT 200 MM.
* COUP DE VENT SUR LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA POUR LES PROCHAINES
12H, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT FORCE TEMPETE SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE MARDI.
* MER RESTANT FORTE DU CAP SAINT-VINCENT AU CAP SAINTE-MARIE,
S'AMORTISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI.

- MOZAMBIQUE : UN ATTERRISSAGE DE FREDDY A UN STADE CYCLONE TROPICAL
(VOIRE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE) EST POSSIBLE EN FIN DE SEMAINE, MAIS
LA PREVISION EST ENCORE TROP INCERTAINE POUR DONNER DES PRECISIONS EN
TERMES DE TIMING ET DE LOCALISATION GEOGRAPHIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070005
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 62/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 42.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 425 SW: 295 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 165 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 40 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/07 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/08 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/08 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2023/03/09 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2023/03/09 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2023/03/10 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/11 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2023/03/12 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED IN CDO BUT
WITH TOPS THAT HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY. DESPITE THE GCOM MICROWAVE
DATA OF 2154UTC, THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
RATHER DELICATE BUT SEEMS TO BE LOCATED IN THE WEAKNESS APPEARING
RECENTLY IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS WEAKNESS COULD BE THE SIGNS
OF THE NEXT APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE WIND INTENSITY AT 55KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST : UNDER THE IMPULSE OF THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH AND THE CLEARER
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, FREDDY HAS
BEGUN A SHIFT TO THE NORTH-WEST WHICH IT SHOULD MAINTAIN. THE
DISPERSION BETWEEN THE MODELS IS STILL STRONG FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, MAINLY CONCERNING THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND REMAINS QUITE CLOSE TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST OF THE ECMWF MODEL. ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT
FORECAST, FREDDY COULD LAND ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH AT THESE TIMES AND ACCORDING TO THE
PRESENT UNCERTAINTY, A SHIFT OF +/-12 HOURS SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM
RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A SMALL WESTERLY SHEAR
STRESS THAT IS FADING. IN THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND WITH A
MODEST OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD REMAIN SLOW BUT
DURABLE AT FIRST WITH THE RESUMPTION OF THE DISPLACEMENT. FROM
THURSDAY, THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW THE
INCREASE OF THE INTENSIFICATION RATE, TO REACH THE STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE ITS LANDFALL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR :
* HEAVY RAINS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS ON THE COASTAL FRINGE OF THE
SOUTHERN MENABE AND ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGIONS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THE EPISODE WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 MM LOCALLY 200 MM.
* GUST OF WIND OVER THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS, REACHING LOCALLY STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.
* VERY ROUGH SEA FROM CAPE SAINT-VINCENT TO CAPE SAINTE-MARIE,
GRADUALLY EASING DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY.

- MOZAMBIQUE : FREDDY COULD POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE (OR EVENT AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE) AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, BUT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO BE ABLE TO PRECISE
TIMING AND EXPOSED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 062359
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 059/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 07/03/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 42.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 10 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
22.9 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/08 AT 00 UTC:
22.0 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061826
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 61/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.9 S / 42.6 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 979 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SO: 370 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 155 SE: 85 SO: 60 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/03/2023 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 07/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 295 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 08/03/2023 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 08/03/2023 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 09/03/2023 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 09/03/2023 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2023 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 335 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

120H: 11/03/2023 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SO: 165 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SO: 75 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

DURANT LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST NETTEMENT
RENFORCEE. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A MIGREE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION
DE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE AVEC UN CENTRE DE CIRCULATION SE
RELOCALISANT SOUS LA CONVECTION LA PLUS MARQUEE. LES DERNIERES
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES PERMETTENT ENCORE DE NOTER UN LEGER DECALAGE
ENTRE LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES ET CELUI A PLUS HAUTE ALTITUDE,
TRADUISANT LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOPAUSE OBSERVE VIA LES
DONNEES DU CIMSS. L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE 3.5 EN LEGERE HAUSSE PERMET UNE
ESTIMATION DE 50KT POUR LA FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE FREDDY.

FREDDY A ENTAME UN DEPLACEMENT ENCORE TIMIDE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST,
VOIRE NORD-OUEST SOUS L'IMPULSION DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. DANS LES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES, AVEC LA MISE EN
PLACE PLUS FRANCHE DE LA DORSALE A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME, LA TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT S'ETABLIR DURABLEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST. LA DISPERSION ENTRE
LES MODELES RESTE FORTE POUR LA SUITE DE LA SEMAINE, PRINCIPALEMENT
EN CE QUI CONCERNE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LA PREVISION DU CMRS
FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS ET RESTE ASSEZ
PROCHE DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU MODELE DU CEPMMT. SELON LA
PRESENTE PREVISION, FREDDY POURRAIT ATTERRIR SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE A ECHEANCE DE LA NUIT DE VENDREDI A SAMEDI, BIEN QU'A CES
ECHEANCES ET SUIVANT L'INCERTITUDE ACTUELLE, UN DECALAGE DE +/-12
HEURES EST A PRENDRE EN COMPTE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY CONTINUE DE BENEFICIER ACTUELLEMENT DE
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT FAVORABLES MALGRE UNE PETITE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE D'OUEST QUI PERSISTE ENCORE. DANS CES CONDITIONS
ATMOSPHERIQUES ET AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE MODESTE,
L'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT RESTER LENTE MAIS DURABLE DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS AVEC LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI,
L'AMELIORATION DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT (LA BAISSE DU MID SHEAR, UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE SOUS LA DORSALE DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE, ET AUSSI
L'ARRIVEE SUR UNE POCHE D'EAUX A POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE PLUS FORT)
DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE L'AUGMENTATION DU TAUX D'INTENCIFICATION, POUR
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE JUSTE AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR :
* FORTES PLUIES DANS LES PROCHAINES 36H SUR LA FRANGE COTIERE DES
REGIONS SUD MENABE ET ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. CUMULS TOTAUX SUR L'EPISODE
ALLANT PROCHE DE 100 MM LOCALEMENT 200 MM.
* COUP DE VENT SUR LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA POUR LES PROCHAINES
12H, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT FORCE TEMPETE SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE MARDI.
* MER TRES FORTE DU CAP SAINT-VINCENT AU CAP SAINTE-MARIE,
S'AMORTISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.

- MOZAMBIQUE : UN ATTERRISSAGE DE FREDDY A UN STADE CYCLONE TROPICAL
(VOIRE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE) EST POSSIBLE EN FIN DE SEMAINE, MAIS
LA PREVISION EST ENCORE TROP INCERTAINE POUR DONNER DES PRECISIONS EN
TERMES DE TIMING ET DE LOCALISATION GEOGRAPHIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061826
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 61/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 42.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 155 SE: 85 SW: 60 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/07 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/07 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/08 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2023/03/08 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2023/03/09 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/03/09 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/10 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 335 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

120H: 2023/03/11 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CLEARLY
INCREASED. THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS MIGRATED TO A CDO
CONFIGURATION WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER RELOCATING UNDER THE MOST
MARKED CONVECTION. THE LAST MICROWAVE DATA STILL ALLOW TO NOTE A
SLIGHT SHIFT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND THE ONE AT HIGHER
ALOFT, REFLECTING THE MID TROPOPAUSE SHEAR OBSERVED VIA THE CIMSS
DATA. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.5 SLIGHTLY UPWARDS ALLOWS AN ESTIMATE
OF 50KT FOR THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM FREDDY.

FREDDY HAS BEGUN A STILL TIMID MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST,
EVEN NORTHWEST UNDER THE IMPULSE OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH. IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED,
THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. THE
DISPERSION BETWEEN THE MODELS REMAINS STRONG FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, MAINLY CONCERNING THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND REMAINS QUITE CLOSE TO
THE OVERALL FORECAST OF THE ECMWF MODEL. ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT
FORECAST, FREDDY COULD LAND ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH AT THESE TIMES AND ACCORDING TO THE
PRESENT UNCERTAINTY, A SHIFT OF +/-12 HOURS SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM RATHER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESPITE A SMALL WESTERLY SHEAR
STRESS WHICH STILL PERSISTS. IN THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND WITH
A MODEST OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD REMAIN SLOW
BUT DURABLE AT FIRST WITH THE RESUMPTION OF THE DISPLACEMENT. FROM
THURSDAY, THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT (THE DECREASE OF THE MID
SHEAR, A GOOD ALOFT DIVERGENCE UNDER THE HIGH TROPOSPHERE RIDGE, AND
ALSO THE ARRIVAL ON A POOL OF WATER WITH STRONGER ENERGETIC
POTENTIAL) SHOULD ALLOW THE INCREASE OF THE INTENSIFICATION RATE, TO
REACH THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE ITS LANDFALL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR :
* HEAVY RAINS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS ON THE COASTAL FRINGE OF THE
SOUTHERN MENABE AND ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGIONS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THE EPISODE WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 MM LOCALLY 200 MM.
* GUST OF WIND OVER THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS, REACHING LOCALLY STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.
* VERY ROUGH SEA FROM CAPE SAINT-VINCENT TO CAPE SAINTE-MARIE,
GRADUALLY EASING DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY.

- MOZAMBIQUE : FREDDY COULD POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE (OR EVENT AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE) AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, BUT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO BE ABLE TO PRECISE
TIMING AND EXPOSED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 061801
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 058/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 06/03/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 42.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/07 AT 06 UTC:
23.2 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/07 AT 18 UTC:
22.5 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061250
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 60/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.1 S / 42.8 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SO: 370 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 155 SE: 85 SO: 60 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/03/2023 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 230 SO: 315 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 07/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 08/03/2023 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 08/03/2023 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 09/03/2023 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 09/03/2023 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

120H: 11/03/2023 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 30

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0 CI=3.5

DURANT LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES LA CONVECTION S'EST AFFAIBLIES AU DEBUT
DE PERIODE PUIS S'EST REFORMEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET AU DESSUS
DU CENTRE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 06H30 UTC MESURE DES VENTS A 45/50KT.
UNE CONTRAINTE DE CISAILLEMENT OUEST-SUD-OUEST QUI INDUIT UN TILT
VISIBLE SUR LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 11H16 UTC. LA INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE
INCHANGEE.

FREDDY SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES. UN VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST PUIS LE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE
DESSINER EN RAISON DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD
ET AU SUD-OUEST DE FREDDY. LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT S'ETABLIR
DURABLEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST A PARTIR DE MARDI. LA DISPERSION ENTRE
MODELES RESTE FORTE POUR LA SUITE DE LA SEMAINE, CONCERNANT AUSSI
BIEN LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT QUE LA DIRECTION DU MOUVEMENT. LA
PREVISION DU CMRS FAIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS ET
RESTE ASSEZ PROCHE DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU MODELE EUROPEEN.
SELON LA PRESENTE PREVISION, FREDDY POURRAIT S'APPROCHER DU
MOZAMBIQUE A UN STADE MATURE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT FAVORABLES MALGRE UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE D'OUEST QUI A FAIT PLAFONNER SON INTENSITE CE LUNDI.
ENSUITE, L'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT RESTER LENTE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS
EN RAISON DE LA PRESENCE DE MID SHEAR DE SUD-OUEST PUIS DE SUD, PUIS
L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE MOINDRE. A PARTIR DE
LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI, L'AMELIORATION DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT (LA
BAISSE DU MID SHEAR, UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE SOUS LA DORSALE
DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE, ET SURTOUT L'ARRIVEE SUR UNE POCHE D'EAUX TRA S
CHAUDES), DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE L'AUGMENTATION DU TAUX
D'INTENCIFICATION, POUR ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR :
* FORTES PLUIES DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 A 48H SUR LA FRANGE COTIERE
DES REGIONS SUD MENABE ET ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. CUMULS TOTAUX SUR
L'EPISODE ALLANT PROCHE DE 100 MM LOCALEMENT 200 MM.
* COUP DE VENT SUR LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA POUR LES PROCHAINES
12H, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT FORCE TEMPETE SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES.
AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE MARDI.
* MER TRES FORTE DU CAP SAINT-VINCENT AU CAP SAINTE-MARIE,
S'AMORTISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.

- MOZAMBIQUE : UN ATTERRISSAGE DE FREDDY A UN STADE MATURE EST
POSSIBLE EN FIN DE SEMAINE, MAIS LA PREVISION EST ENCORE TROP
INCERTAINE POUR DONNER DES PRECISIONS EN TERMES DE TIMING ET DE
LOCALISATION GEOGRAPHIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061250
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 60/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 42.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 155 SE: 85 SW: 60 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/07 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 230 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/07 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/08 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2023/03/08 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2023/03/09 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/03/09 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/10 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

120H: 2023/03/11 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 30

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0 CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS THE CONVECTION WEAKENED AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD THEN REFORMED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND OVER THE
CENTER. THE 06H30 UTC ASCAT PASS MEASURES WINDS AT 45/50KT.
A WEST-SOUTHWEST SHEAR STRESS WHICH INDUCES A VISIBLE TILT ON THE
AMSR2 PASS OF 11H16 UTC. THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED UNCHANGED.

FREDDY IS MOVING SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING
FLOWS. A TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DUE
TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
FREDDY. THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED PERMANENTLY TOWARDS THE
NORTH-WEST FROM TUESDAY. THE DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS STRONG
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, CONCERNING BOTH THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND
THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT. THE CMRS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND REMAINS QUITE CLOSE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL. ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT FORECAST,
FREDDY COULD APPROACH MOZAMBIQUE AT A MATURE STAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM RATHER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESPITE A SMALL WESTERLY SHEAR
STRESS WHICH HAS CAUSED ITS INTENSITY TO LEVEL OFF ON MONDAY.
THEN, THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD REMAIN SLOW AT FIRST BECAUSE OF THE
PRESENCE OF MID SHEAR OF SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH, THEN THE ARRIVAL ON
WATERS WITH LESS ENERGETIC POTENTIAL. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY,
THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT (THE DECREASE OF THE MID SHEAR, A
GOOD ALOFT DIVERGENCE UNDER THE HIGH TROPOSPHERE RIDGE, AND
ESPECIALLY THE ARRIVAL ON A POCKET OF VERY WARM WATERS), SHOULD ALLOW
THE INCREASE OF THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, TO REACH THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR :
* HEAVY RAINS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ON THE COASTAL FRINGE OF THE
SOUTHERN MENABE AND ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGIONS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THE EPISODE WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 MM LOCALLY 200 MM.
* GUST OF WIND OVER THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS, REACHING LOCALLY STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL REGIONS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.
* VERY ROUGH SEA FROM CAPE SAINT-VINCENT TO CAPE SAINTE-MARIE,
GRADUALLY EASING DURING THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY.

- MOZAMBIQUE : FREDDY COULD POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL AS A MATURE SYSTEM
AT THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO BE
ABLE TO PRECISE TIMING AND EXPOSED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 061201
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 057/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 06/03/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 42.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
23.6 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/07 AT 12 UTC:
22.8 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060734
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 59/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.0 S / 43.0 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SO: 405 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/03/2023 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 07/03/2023 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SO: 335 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 07/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 08/03/2023 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 55 NO: 35

60H: 08/03/2023 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 09/03/2023 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2023 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SO: 380 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 11/03/2023 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5- CI=3.5+

A PROXIMITE DES TERRES, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME S'EST POURSUIVI,
AVEC UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET NET RECHAUFFEMENT DE LA CONVECTION,
LAISSANT MAINTENANT APPARAA TRE LE CENTRE SUR L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE.
UNE CONVECTION MAJORITAIREMENT DEPORTEE VERS L'EST, PROBABLEMENT SOUS
L'EFFET D'UNE LEGERE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST QUI DEVIENT PLUS
IMPACTANT DU FAIT DU RALENTISSEMENT ET DU CHANGEMENT DE CAP DU
SYSTEME
L'INTENSITE A ETE REVU A LA BAISSE EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNA ES AMRSTC
DE 2249UTC A 47KT.

LE MOUVEMENT DE FREDDY DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE RALENTIR CE LUNDI SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF
VERS L'OUEST PUIS LE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE FAIRE EN RAISON DU
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET AU SUD-OUEST DE
FREDDY. LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT S'ETABLIR DURABLEMENT VERS LE
NORD-OUEST A PARTIR DE MARDI. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES RESTE FORTE
POUR LA SUITE DE LA SEMAINE, CONCERNANT AUSSI BIEN LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT QUE LA DIRECTION DU MOUVEMENT. LA PREVISION DU CMRS FAIT
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS ET RESTE ASSEZ PROCHE DE
LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU MODELE EUROPEEN. SELON LA PRESENTE
PREVISION, FREDDY POURRAIT S'APPROCHER DU MOZAMBIQUE A UN STADE
MATURE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT FAVORABLES MALGRE UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE D'OUEST QUI DEVRAIT FAIRE PLAFONNER SON INTENSITE CE LUNDI.
ENSUITE, L'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT RESTER LENTE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS
EN RAISON DE LA PRESENCE DE MID SHEAR DE SUD-OUEST PUIS DE SUD, PUIS
L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE MOINDRE. A PARTIR DE
LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI, L'AMELIORATION DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT (LA
BAISSE DU MID SHEAR, UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE SOUS LA DORSALE
DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE, ET SURTOUT L'ARRIVEE SUR UNE POCHE D'EAUX TRA S
CHAUDES), DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE L'AUGMENTATION DU TAUX
D'INTENCIFICATION, POUR ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR :
* FORTES PLUIES DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 A 48H SUR LA FRANGE COTIERE
DES REGIONS SUD MENABE ET ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. CUMULS TOTAUX SUR
L'EPISODE ALLANT PROCHE DE 100 MM LOCALEMENT 200 MM.
* COUP DE VENT SUR LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA, POUR LES PROCHAINES
24H, ESSENTIELLEMENT SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES. POSSIBILITE DE VENTS
DE FORCE TEMPETE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU LITTORAL AU SUD DE TULEAR
EN MATINEE DE LUNDI. AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE MARDI.
* MER TRES FORTE DU CAP SAINT-VINCENT AU CAP SAINTE-MARIE,
S'AMORTISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.

- MOZAMBIQUE : UN ATTERRISSAGE DE FREDDY A UN STADE MATURE EST
POSSIBLE EN FIN DE SEMAINE, MAIS LA PREVISION EST ENCORE TROP
INCERTAINE POUR DONNER DES PRECISIONS EN TERMES DE TIMING ET DE
LOCALISATION GEOGRAPHIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060734
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 59/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SW: 405 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/06 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/07 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 335 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/07 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/03/08 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2023/03/08 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2023/03/09 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/10 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 380 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2023/03/11 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5- CI=3.5+

CLOSE TO THE LAND, THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED, WITH A
WEAKENING AND A CLEAR WARMING OF THE CONVECTION, LETTING NOW THE
CENTER APPEAR ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY SHIFTED EASTWARD, PROBABLY DUE TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS BECOMING MORE IMPACTFUL DUE
TO THE SLOWING DOWN AND THE CHANGE OF THE SYSTEM'S COURSE
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARDS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AMRSTC
DATA FROM 2249UTC TO 47KT.

FREDDY'S MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MONDAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS
THE WEST AND THEN THE NORTHWEST SHOULD TAKE PLACE DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
FREDDY. THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED PERMANENTLY TOWARDS THE
NORTH-WEST FROM TUESDAY. THE DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS STRONG
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, CONCERNING BOTH THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND
THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT. THE CMRS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND REMAINS QUITE CLOSE TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL. ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT FORECAST,
FREDDY COULD APPROACH MOZAMBIQUE AT A MATURE STAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM RATHER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESPITE A SMALL WESTERLY SHEAR
STRESS WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO LEVEL OFF ON MONDAY.
THEN, THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD REMAIN SLOW AT FIRST BECAUSE OF THE
PRESENCE OF MID SHEAR, THEN THE ARRIVAL ON WATERS WITH LESS ENERGETIC
POTENTIAL. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY, THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE
ENVIRONMENT (THE DECREASE OF THE MID SHEAR, A GOOD ALOFT DIVERGENCE
UNDER THE HIGH TROPOSPHERE RIDGE, AND ESPECIALLY THE ARRIVAL ON A
POCKET OF VERY WARM WATERS), SHOULD ALLOW THE INCREASE OF THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION, TO REACH THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR
* HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTH MENABE AND ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGIONS. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL
REACHING 100 MM LOCALLY 200 MM.
* GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION, FOR THE NEXT
24H, MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM
FORCE WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SHORE IN THE TOLIARA
AREA ON MONDAY MORNING. GRADUALLY IMPROVING ON TUESDAY.
* VERY ROUGH SEA FROM CAPE SAINT-VINCENT TO CAPE SAINT-MARIE,
GRADUALLY EASING OFF FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS.

- MOZAMBIQUE : FREDDY COULD POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL AS A MATURE SYSTEM
AT THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO BE
ABLE TO PRECISE TIMING AND EXPOSED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 060611
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 056/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 06/03/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0 S / 43.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/06 AT 18 UTC:
23.8 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/07 AT 06 UTC:
23.1 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230306013515
2023030600 11S FREDDY 048 01 195 03 SATL 060
T000 237S 0431E 045 R034 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 240S 0428E 045 R034 040 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 237S 0425E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 231S 0420E 060 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 220S 0414E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 205S 0402E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 193S 0394E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 183S 0388E 080 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 048
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 43.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 43.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.0S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.7S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.1S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.0S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.5S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.3S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.3S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 43.0E.
06MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.
//
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1123021918 177S 624E 140
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1123022012 189S 568E 120
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1123022018 193S 549E 115
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1123022600 224S 333E 25
1123022606 219S 331E 25
1123022612 215S 331E 25
1123022618 213S 331E 25
1123022700 209S 332E 25
1123022706 209S 326E 20
1123022712 215S 314E 20
1123022718 219S 319E 20
1123022800 220S 322E 20
1123022806 221S 325E 15
1123022812 221S 331E 15
1123022818 218S 330E 15
1123030100 219S 333E 15
1123030106 223S 343E 15
1123030112 223S 350E 15
1123030118 223S 356E 20
1123030200 221S 360E 20
1123030206 218S 359E 25
1123030212 212S 372E 25
1123030218 216S 378E 25
1123030300 219S 378E 25
1123030306 220S 380E 25
1123030312 218S 381E 30
1123030318 220S 387E 30
1123030400 223S 390E 30
1123030406 225S 394E 35
1123030412 226S 400E 40
1123030418 227S 407E 45
1123030500 228S 414E 45
1123030506 231S 420E 45
1123030512 231S 424E 45
1123030518 234S 432E 45
1123030600 237S 431E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 43.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 43.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 24.0S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.7S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.1S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.0S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.5S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.3S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.3S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 43.0E.
06MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060045
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 58/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 43.3 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 981 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SO: 405 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/03/2023 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SO: 370 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 07/03/2023 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SO: 335 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 07/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 08/03/2023 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 55 NO: 35

60H: 08/03/2023 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SO: 240 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 09/03/2023 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/03/2023 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SO: 380 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 11/03/2023 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SO: 285 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0-

LE CENTRE DE FREDDY EST PASSE AU PLUS PRES DES TERRES ENTRE 20 ET
22UTC, A SEULEMENT 20-30KM DE LA REGION DE TULEAR (DES VENTS DE FORCE
TEMPETE ONT DONC PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT LE LITTORAL, ACCOMPAGNES DE
PLUIES TRES INTENSES). FREDDY SEMBLE MAINTENANT FAIRE UN VIRAGE VERS
LE SUD-OUEST.
L'AMORCE DE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE FREDDY S'EST TEMPORAIREMENT
MAINTENUE JUSQU'EN MILIEU DE NUIT, ALTERNANT PAR MOMENTS AVEC UNE
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE COMPACTE ET A FORT ENROULEMENT.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 3H A DONNE UN DT DE 4.0-. NEANMOINS,
SUR LES 2 DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE DE FREDDY A COMMENCE A SE
DEGRADER, DEVENANT PLUS ASYMETRIQUE AVEC UNE CONVECTION
MAJORITAIREMENT DEPORTEE VERS LE SUD, PROBABLEMENT SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE
LEGERE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST QUI DEVIENT PLUS IMPACTANT DU
FAIT DU RALENTISSEMENT ET DU CHANGEMENT DE CAP DU SYSTEME. L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 VERS 23UTC CONFIRME QUE LE VORTEX DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE EST DECALE AU SUD-EST DU VORTEX DE BASSES COUCHES.
L'INTENSITE A ETE MONTEE A 55KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE LA NETTE
AMELIORATION DE CONFIGURATION ENTRE 18 ET 22UTC.

LE MOUVEMENT DE FREDDY DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE RALENTIR CE LUNDI SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF
VERS L'OUEST PUIS LE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT SE FAIRE EN RAISON DU
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD ET AU SUD-OUEST DE
FREDDY. LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT S'ETABLIR DURABLEMENT VERS LE
NORD-OUEST A PARTIR DE MARDI. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES RESTE FORTE
POUR LA SUITE DE LA SEMAINE, CONCERNANT AUSSI BIEN LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT QUE LA DIRECTION DU MOUVEMENT. LA PREVISION DU CMRS FAIT
UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS ET RESTE ASSEZ PROCHE DE
LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU MODELE EUROPEEN. SELON LA PRESENTE
PREVISION, FREDDY POURRAIT S'APPROCHER DU MOZAMBIQUE A UN STADE
MATURE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT FAVORABLES MALGRE UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE D'OUEST QUI DEVRAIT FAIRE PLAFONNER SON INTENSITE CE LUNDI.
CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT DE NOUVEAU DIMINUER MARDI, CE QUI DEVRAIT
FAVORISER UNE INTENSIFICATION D'ABORD LENTE JUSQU'A MERCREDI, PUIS
POTENTIELLEMENT PLUS FRANCHE EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE ALORS QUE
LE SYSTEME CIRCULERA SUR DES EAUX CHAUDES AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE SOUS LA DORSALE DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE. CES CONDITIONS
POURRAIENT PERMETTRE D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL VOIRE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR :
* FORTES PLUIES DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 A 48H SUR LA FRANGE COTIERE
DES REGIONS MENABE ET ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. CUMULS TOTAUX SUR L'EPISODE
ALLANT DE 100 A 200 MM AVEC POTENTIELLEMENT 200-300 MM A PROXIMITE
IMMEDIATE DU SYSTEME DANS LA ZONE DE TULEAR ET PLUS AU SUD.
* COUP DE VENT SUR LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA, POUR LES PROCHAINES
24H, ESSENTIELLEMENT SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES. POSSIBILITE DE VENTS
DE FORCE TEMPETE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU LITTORAL AU SUD DE TULEAR
JUSQU'A LUNDI MIDI. AMELIORATION PROGRESSIVE MARDI.
* MER TRES FORTE DU CAP SAINT-VINCENT AU CAP SAINTE-MARIE,
S'AMORTISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.

- MOZAMBIQUE : UN ATTERRISSAGE DE FREDDY A UN STADE MATURE EST
POSSIBLE EN FIN DE SEMAINE, MAIS LA PREVISION EST ENCORE TROP
INCERTAINE POUR DONNER DES PRECISIONS EN TERMES DE TIMING ET DE
LOCALISATION GEOGRAPHIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060045
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 58/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 43.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SW: 405 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/06 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/07 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 335 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/07 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/03/08 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2023/03/08 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2023/03/09 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/10 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 380 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2023/03/11 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0-

FREDDY'S CENTER HAS TRACKED VERY CLOSE TO THE MALAGASY COAST BETWEEN
20 AND 22UTC, ONLY 20-30KM FROM THE TOLIARA AREA (STORM FORCE WINDS
HAVE PROBABLY REACHED THE COAST, TOGETHER WITH VERY INTENSE
RAINFALL). FREDDY NOW SEEMS TO BE TURNING SOUTHWEST.
FREDDY'S EYE PATTERN HAS TEMPORARILY MAINTAINED ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, ALTERNATING AT TIMES WITH A COMPACT, TIGHTLY
WRAPPED CURVED BAND PATTERN. DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3H GAVE A
DT OF 4.0-. NEVERTHELESS, OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS, FREDDY'S STRUCTURE
HAS STARTED TO DEGRADE A BIT, BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRICAL WITH A
CONVECTION MOSTLY SHIFTED SOUTHWARD, PROBABLY DUE TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE OF WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS BECOMING MORE IMPACTFUL DUE TO
THE SLOWING DOWN AND THE CHANGE OF COURSE OF THE SYSTEM. THE AMSR2
MICROWAVE IMAGE AROUND 23UTC CONFIRMS THAT THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS
TILTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 55KT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE CLEAR IMPROVEMENT OF
PATTERN BETWEEN 18 AND 22UTC.

FREDDY'S MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MONDAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. A GRADUAL WESTWARD
THEN NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF FREDDY, WHICH SHOULD
MAKE IT GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT
SHOULD THEN REMAIN NORTHWESTWARD FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS. DISPERSION
BETWEEN MODELS REMAINS STRONG FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, BOTH
CONCERNING SPEED AND DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT. THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND REMAINS QUITE CLOSE TO
THE EUROPEAN EPS. ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT FORECAST, FREDDY COULD
TRACK CLOSE TO MOZAMBIQUE AS A MATURE CYCLONE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM RATHER
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DESPITE A SMALL WESTERLY SHEAR
STRESS WHICH SHOULD MAKE ITS INTENSITY PLATEAU THIS MONDAY. THIS
SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE ON TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, AT FIRST SLOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY MORE
FRANK IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER
WARM WATERS WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE UNDER THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD ENABLE FREDDY TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE
OR EVEN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR
* HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF
MENABE AND ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGIONS. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL RANGING FROM
100 TO 200 MM WITH POTENTIALLY 200-300 MM IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE SYSTEM IN THE TOLIARA AREA AND FURTHER SOUTH.
* GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION, FOR THE NEXT
24H, MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM
FORCE WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SHORE IN THE TOLIARA
AREA UNTIL NOON ON MONDAY. GRADUALLY IMPROVING ON TUESDAY.
* VERY ROUGH SEA FROM CAPE SAINT-VINCENT TO CAPE SAINT-MARIE,
GRADUALLY EASING OFF FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS.

- MOZAMBIQUE : FREDDY COULD POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL AS A MATURE SYSTEM
AT THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO BE
ABLE TO PRECISE TIMING AND EXPOSED AREAS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 060013
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 055/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 06/03/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 981 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 43.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/06 AT 12 UTC:
23.9 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/07 AT 00 UTC:
23.2 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051845
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 57/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.2 S / 43.1 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 425 SO: 350 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/03/2023 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SO: 345 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 06/03/2023 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 335 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 07/03/2023 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SO: 285 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

48H: 07/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35

60H: 08/03/2023 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 08/03/2023 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2023 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 305 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 10/03/2023 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, FREDDY A TEMPORAIREMENT ACCELERE SON
MOUVEMENT VERS L'EST ET S'EST RAPPROCHE PLUS QUE PREVU DE LA COTE DE
MADAGASCAR, SON CENTRE EST ESTIME A 50-60 KM A L'OUEST DE TULEAR.
TOUTEFOIS, SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES IL SEMBLE NETTEMENT RALENTIR SON
MOUVEMENT. PENDANT CE TEMPS, LA CONVECTION S'EST INTENSIFIEE EN
S'ENROULANT AUTOUR D'UN CENTRE ASSEZ COMPACT, AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DE
BANDE INCURVEE EVOLUANT VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL SUR L'IMAGERIE
INFRAROUGE. LA DIMENSION DE LA ZONE CONVECTIVE EST DEVENUE PLUS
COMPACTE ET ESSENTIELLEMENT CONCENTREE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 KM (50-60
MN) AUTOUR DU CENTRE, PROBABLEMENT SOUS L'EFFET DE L'APPROCHE DES
COTES QUI A ACCENTUE LA CONVERGENCE DES VENTS DE BASSES COUCHES. SUR
LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES, L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL ATTEINT 3.5 A
4.0 (PAR INERTIE, ON RETIENDRA PLUTOT LES 3.5). FREDDY EST DONC
ESTIME AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE 50KT.
LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES ET L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE
PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER UN RAYON DE VENTS MAX DE 24MN ALORS QU'IL ETAIT
PROCHE DE 40MN CE MATIN. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME ETANT A 25-30MN DE LA
COTE MALGACHE, DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE SONT DONC POSSIBLES TRES
PRES DU LITTORAL.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE FREDDY DEVRAIT DEVENIR QUASI-STATIONNAIRE JUSQU'A
LUNDI SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. AINSI, LE
CENTRE DU SYSTEME NE DEVRAIT PAS ATTERRIR SUR LA COTE MALGACHE MAIS
IL EN RESTERA PROBABLEMENT TRES PROCHE JUSQU'A LUNDI MIDI. UNE
NOUVELLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GONFLE AU SUD-OUEST DE FREDDY ET
DEVRAIT ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST. LA CHRONOLOGIE ET
LA LOCALISATION EXACTE DU VIRAGE RESTE TRES INCERTAINE. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, IL Y A DEUX TYPES DE SCENARIOS : L'UN AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE
PLUS SUD ET PLUS RAPIDE COMME LE SUGGERE GFS, L'AUTRE AVEC UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS NORD ET PLUS LENTE COMME IFS. LA PREVISION DU CMRS
SE RAPPROCHE PLUTOT DU SCENARIO EUROPEEN, QUI SEMBLE MIEUX CALE A
L'ETAT INITIAL. L'INCERTITUDE RESTE DONC ENCORE GRANDE PAR RAPPORT A
UNE APPROCHE EVENTUELLE DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION. EN EFFET, AVEC UN
FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT, UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, FREDDY DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR AU MOINS AU STADE
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE EN S'INTENSIFIANT LENTEMENT. A PLUS LONG
TERME, L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SUGGERENT UNE INTENSIFICATION AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. MALGRE TOUT, UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR
SUD SERA PRESENTE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI LORS DE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
LE NORD, ET POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT ETRE UN FREIN A UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS IMPORTANTE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR
* FORTES PLUIES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE
LA COTE OUEST DE MENABE ET ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. CUMULS SUR 72H ALLANT DE
100 A 200 MM AVEC POTENTIELLEMENT 200-300 MM A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU
SYSTEME DANS LA ZONE DE TULEAR.
* COUP DE VENT SUR LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA, POUR LES PROCHAINES
24-36H, ESSENTIELLEMENT SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES, AVEC POSSIBILITE DE
VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU LITTORAL SUR LE
SECTEUR DE TULEAR JUSQU'A LUNDI MIDI. AMELIORATION MARDI.
* MER TRES FORTE DU CAP SAINT-VINCENT AU CAP SAINTE-MARIE,
S'AMORTISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 57/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 43.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/06 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/06 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 335 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/07 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

48H: 2023/03/07 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2023/03/08 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/03/08 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/09 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2023/03/10 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, FREDDY HAS TEMPORARILY ACCELERATED ITS
MOVEMENT EASTWARD AND HAS COME CLOSER THAN EXPECTED TO THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, ITS CENTER IS ESTIMATED AT 50-60 KM WEST OF TULEAR.
HOWEVER, ON THE LAST IMAGES IT SEEMS TO FRANKLY SLOW DOWN ITS
MOVEMENT. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED WHILE TIGHTLY
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER, WITH A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE EVOLVING
INTO AN EYE PATTERN ON INFRARED IMAGERY. THE SIZE OF THE CDO HAS
BECOME MORE COMPACT AND ESSENTIALLY CONCENTRATED IN A 100 KM (50-60
MN) RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, PROBABLY DUE TO ITS APPROACH OF THE
COAST WHICH HAS ACCENTUATED LOW-LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE. ON THE LAST
IMAGES, EIR DVORAK ANALYSIS REACHES 3.5 TO 4.0 (BY INERTIA, WE WILL
FAVOR 3.5). FREDDY IS THUS ESTIMATED AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE
WITH WINDS OF 50KT. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
ENABLE TO ESTIMATE A 24NM RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS WHILE IT WAS CLOSE
TO 40NM THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM'S CENTER BEING ABOUT 25-30MN FROM
THE MALAGASY COAST, STORM FORCE WINDS ARE THUS POSSIBLE VERY CLOSE TO
THE COAST.

FREDDY'S MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL
MONDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. THUS, THE
SYSTEM'S CENTER SHOULD NOT MAKE LANDFALL ON THE MALAGASY COAST BUT IT
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO IT UNTIL MONDAY MIDDAY. A NEW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SWELLING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
FREDDY AND SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF FREDDY'S U-TURN REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THERE ARE TWO TYPES OF SCENARIOS : ONE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
AND FASTER TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY GFS, THE OTHER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
AND SLOWER TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY IFS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO
THE EUROPEAN SCENARIO, WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH INITIAL
STATE. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A
POSSIBLE APPROACH TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
TO FREDDY'S INTENSIFICATION. INDEED, WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR, GOOD
OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, FREDDY SHOULD REMAIN AT
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WHILE INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. IN THE LONGER TERM,
ALL MODELS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
NEVERTHELESS, SOME SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR COULD BE PRESENT FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS WHEN IT MOVES NORTHWARDS, AND COULD TEMPORARILY
HINDER A MORE IMPORTANT INTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR
* HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
WEST COAST OF MENABE AND ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OVER
72 HOURS RANGING FROM 100 TO 200 MM WITH POTENTIALLY 200-300 MM IN
THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM IN THE TULEAR AREA.
* GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION, FOR THE NEXT
24-36H, MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM
FORCE WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SHORE IN THE TULEAR AREA
UNTIL NOON ON MONDAY. IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.
* VERY ROUGH SEA FROM CAPE SAINT-VINCENT TO CAPE SAINT-MARIE,
GRADUALLY EASING OFF FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 051817
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 054/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 43.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/06 AT 06 UTC:
23.6 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/06 AT 18 UTC:
23.2 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230305133849
2023030512 11S FREDDY 047 01 100 05 SATL SYNP 030
T000 230S 0422E 045 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 234S 0428E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 236S 0427E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 233S 0422E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 226S 0416E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 209S 0404E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 198S 0397E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 189S 0390E 070 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 047
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 23.0S 42.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 42.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.4S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.6S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.6S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.9S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.8S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.9S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 42.3E.
05MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
1123020412 127S1168E 20
1123020418 122S1173E 20
1123020500 118S1178E 25
1123020506 115S1184E 25
1123020512 114S1189E 25
1123020518 116S1193E 25
1123020600 120S1193E 30
1123020606 123S1191E 35
1123020612 127S1189E 45
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022206 217S 450E 45
1123022212 221S 434E 25
1123022218 220S 424E 30
1123022300 222S 413E 30
1123022306 224S 404E 40
1123022312 226S 396E 55
1123022312 226S 396E 55
1123022318 228S 387E 55
1123022318 228S 387E 55
1123022400 225S 376E 60
1123022400 225S 376E 60
1123022406 225S 364E 60
1123022406 225S 364E 60
1123022412 226S 351E 50
1123022412 226S 351E 50
1123022418 226S 345E 45
1123022500 226S 338E 40
1123022506 228S 333E 30
1123022512 229S 331E 30
1123022518 227S 331E 25
1123022600 224S 333E 25
1123022606 219S 331E 25
1123022612 215S 331E 25
1123022618 213S 331E 25
1123022700 209S 332E 25
1123022706 209S 326E 20
1123022712 215S 314E 20
1123022718 219S 319E 20
1123022800 220S 322E 20
1123022806 221S 325E 15
1123022812 221S 331E 15
1123022818 218S 330E 15
1123030100 219S 333E 15
1123030106 223S 343E 15
1123030112 223S 350E 15
1123030118 223S 356E 20
1123030200 221S 360E 20
1123030206 218S 359E 25
1123030212 212S 372E 25
1123030218 216S 378E 25
1123030300 219S 378E 25
1123030306 220S 380E 25
1123030312 218S 381E 30
1123030318 220S 387E 30
1123030400 223S 390E 30
1123030406 225S 394E 35
1123030412 226S 400E 40
1123030418 227S 407E 45
1123030500 228S 413E 45
1123030506 229S 417E 45
1123030512 230S 422E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 23.0S 42.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 42.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.4S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.6S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.6S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.9S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.8S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.9S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 42.3E.
05MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051242
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 56/7/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.0 S / 42.0 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 360 SO: 315 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 195 NO: 195

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/03/2023 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SO: 315 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 45

24H: 06/03/2023 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 325 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 07/03/2023 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 325 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 07/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 250 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 35 NO: 55

60H: 08/03/2023 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 08/03/2023 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 295 SO: 305 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2023 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

120H: 10/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE
FREDDY S'EST AMELIOREE TOUT EN CONSOLIDANT UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES PLUS COMPACTE. EN ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES DONNEES ASCAT OU
MICRO-ONDES ET EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES, L'INTENSITE DE FREDDY EST MAINTENUE A 45KT.

FREDDY SE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD. CE DEPLACEMENT VA RESTER LENT EN
RAISON D'UN DEUXIEME FLUX DIRECTEUR CONTRADICTOIRE PLUS FAIBLE PILOTE
PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. PUIS UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE GONFLE AU SUD-OUEST DE FREDDY ET IL DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN
DEMI-TOUR DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H AVANT DE PRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE NORD-OUEST. SI L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT
CE VIRAGE, IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR L'ENDROIT EXACT DE CE
CHANGEMENT DE TRAJECTOIRE. CEPENDANT L'OPTION D'UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR SEMBLE A PRESENT ECARTE. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, DEUX
SCENARIO SEMBLENT SE DESSINER : L'UN PROPOSE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD
ET PLUS RAPIDE COMME LE SUGGERE GFS, L'AUTRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
NORD ET PLUS LENTE COMME IFS. LA PREVISION DU CMRS EST UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES DEUX SCENARIO EN PRIVILEGIANT TOUTEFOIS UNE TRAJECTOIRE
PLUS AU NORD. L'INCERTITUDE RESTE DONC ENCORE GRANDE A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE ET SERA NOTAMMENT FONCTION DU VIRAGE DE FREDDY.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY RENCONTRE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION. EN EFFET, AVEC UN
FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT, UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, FREDDY DEVRAIT
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AU COURS DE LA NUIT
PROCHAINE. A PLUS LONG TERME, L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SUGGERENT QUE
FREDDY DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.
MALGRE TOUT, UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR SUD SERA PRESENTE A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI LORS DE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE NORD, ET POURRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT ETRE UN FREIN A UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS IMPORTANTE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR
* FORTES PLUIES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE
LA COTE OUEST DE MENABE ET ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. CUMULS SUR 72H ALLANT DE
100 A 150 MM AVEC POTENTIELLEMENT 200 MM SUR LA REGION DE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* COUP DE VENT SUR LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA, POUR LES PROCHAINES
36H, ESSENTIELLEMENT SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES, AVANT UNE AMELIORATION
MARDI.
* MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES PROCHES DE 4M DU CAP SAINT-VINCENT
AU CAP SAINTE-MARIE, S'AMORTISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN JOURNEE DE
LUNDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 56/7/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 42.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 360 SW: 315 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 195 NW: 195

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/06 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 315 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/06 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 325 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/07 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 325 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/03/07 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 55

60H: 2023/03/08 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2023/03/08 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/09 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2023/03/10 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF FREDDY
HAS IMPROVED WHILE CONSOLIDATING A MORE COMPACT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW ASCAT OR MICROWAVE DATA AND IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, THE
INTENSITY OF FREDDY IS MAINTAINED AT 45KT.

FREDDY IS MOVING EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN SLOW BECAUSE OF A
SECOND WEAKER CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH. THEN A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SWELLS SOUTHWEST OF
FREDDY AND HE SHOULD MAKE A TURN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TAKING A
NORTHWEST TRACK. IF ALL THE AVAILABLE MODELS PROPOSE THIS TURN, THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS CHANGE OF
TRACK. HOWEVER, THE OPTION OF A LANDING ON MADAGASCAR SEEMS TO BE
DISCARDED AT THE MOMENT. IN THE LONGER TERM, TWO SCENARIOS SEEM TO BE
EMERGING: ONE PROPOSES A MORE SOUTHERLY AND FASTER TRACK AS SUGGESTED
BY GFS, THE OTHER A MORE NORTHERLY AND SLOWER TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY
IFS. THE RMSC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS,
WITH A PREFERENCE FOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. THE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL
GREAT IN THE LONGER TERM AND WILL DEPEND ON THE TURN OF FREDDY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION. INDEED, WITH A WEAK
WIND SHEAR, A GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG THE TRACK AND A GOOD
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, FREDDY SHOULD REACH THE STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT NIGHT. IN THE LONGER TERM, ALL THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT FREDDY SHOULD INTENSIFY UNTIL THE STAGE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS, A SHEAR STRESS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE PRESENT
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS WHEN IT MOVES NORTHWARDS, AND COULD
TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN A MORE IMPORTANT INTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR
* HEAVY RAINS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE WEST
COAST OF MENABE AND ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OVER 72
HOURS RANGING FROM 100 TO 150 MM WITH A POTENTIAL OF 200 MM OVER THE
REGION OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* GALE OVER ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION, FOR THE NEXT 36H, MAINLY OVER
COASTAL AREAS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.
* VERY STRONG SEA WITH WAVES CLOSE TO 4M FROM CAPE SAINT-VINCENT TO
CAPE SAINTE-MARIE, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING MONDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 051216
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 053/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 42.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 105 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 195 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/06 AT 00 UTC:
23.3 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/06 AT 12 UTC:
23.5 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050638
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 55/7/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.0 S / 41.7 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 360 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 195 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2023 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 370 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 06/03/2023 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SO: 360 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 45

36H: 06/03/2023 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SO: 360 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 07/03/2023 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SO: 360 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 45 NO: 55

60H: 07/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SO: 305 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 08/03/2023 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2023 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 10/03/2023 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A NETTEMENT DIMINUE
MAIS LA CIRCULATION AUTOUR DU CENTRE A CONTINUE A MIEUX S'ORGANISER.
EN EFFET, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 0309Z MONTRE UNE CIRCULATION
PLUS COMPACTE AVEC UN OEIL BIEN CIRCULAIRE VISIBLE SUR LA 37GHZ, ET
UNE CONVECTION DAVANTAGE HOMOGENE AUTOUR DU CENTRE. EN ACCORD AVEC
LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES FREDDY EST
MAINTENU AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVEC DES VENTS DE
45KT.

FREDDY SE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD, JUSQU'A LUNDI. CE DEPLACEMENT
VA RESTER LENT EN RAISON D'UN DEUXIEME FLUX DIRECTEUR CONTRADICTOIRE
PLUS FAIBLE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. A PARTIR DE
LUNDI, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GONFLE AU SUD-OUEST DE
FREDDY ET DEVRAIT L'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD-OUEST. IL EST A NOTER QUE
LES DETAILS DE LA LOCALISATION ET DE LA CHRONOLOGIE DU POINT DE
REBROUSSEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE A PROXIMITE DE MADAGASCAR SONT ENCORE
INCERTAINS ET QU'UNE OPTION PLUS PESSIMISTE AVEC UN CENTRE SE
RAPPROCHANT PLUS PRES DES COTES N'EST PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLUE A
L'HEURE ACTUELLE. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES GUIDANCES MONTRENT DE
FORTES DISPARITES DANS LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
NORD-OUEST. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE EST UN CONSENSUS DES DIFFERENTS
MODELES DISPONIBLES, AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE QUI SE RAPPROCHE DAVANTAGE
DE CELLE DE IFS MAIS AVEC UNE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT PLUS IMPORTANTE.
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE CEPENDANT IMPORTANTE A LONGUE ECHEANCE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, FREDDY RENCONTRE ACTUELLEMENT DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION. EN EFFET, AVEC UN
FAIBLIE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT JUSQU'A LUNDI, UNE HAUSSE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE ET UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE, FREDDY DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H. A PLUS LONG TERME, L'ENSEMBLE
DES MODELES SUGGERENT QUE FREDDY DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. MALGRE TOUT, ON PEUT VOIR QU'UNE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR SUD SERA PRESENTE LORS DE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
LE NORD, CE QUI POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT ETRE UN FREIN A UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS IMPORTANTE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR
* FORTES PLUIES DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE
LA COTE OUEST DE MENABE ET ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. CUMULS SUR 72H ALLANT DE
100 A 200 MM AVEC POTENTIELLEMENT 250-350 MM SUR LA REGION DE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (JUSQU'A 200 MM EN 24H POSSIBLE). INDIRECTEMENT,
PLUIES SUR LA ZONE SUD-EST (REGIONS DE VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY ET
ATSIMO-ATSINANANA) AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANT AVOISINER LES 200-250MM EN
72H, DONT 100-1500M AU COURS LES PROCHAINES 24H.
* COUP DE VENT SUR LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA, POUR LES PROCHAINES
48H, ESSENTIELLEMENT SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES, AVANT UNE AMELIORATION
MARDI.
* MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6 M DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS
AUTOUR DU CAP SAINT-VINCENT PUIS S'ETENDANT JUSQU'AU CAP SAINTE-MARIE
DANS LA JOURNEE. BAISSE PROGRESSIVE DANS LA JOURNEE DE MARDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 55/7/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 41.7 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 360 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/05 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 370 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2023/03/06 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 360 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 45

36H: 2023/03/06 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 360 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2023/03/07 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 360 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2023/03/07 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2023/03/08 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/09 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2023/03/10 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY DECREASED BUT THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED.
INDEED, THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 0309Z SHOWS A MORE COMPACT
CIRCULATION WITH A WELL CIRCULAR EYE VISIBLE ON THE 37GHZ, AND A MORE
HOMOGENEOUS CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, FREDDY IS MAINTAINED AT
THE STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 45KT.

FREDDY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH UNTIL MONDAY. THIS MOVEMENT WILL
REMAIN SLOW DUE TO A SECOND WEAKER CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, A NEW
RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL AIR SWELLS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FREDDY AND SHOULD
STEER IT TO THE NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DETAILS OF THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE TURNING POINT OF THE TRACK NEAR MADAGASCAR
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AND THAT A MORE PESSIMISTIC OPTION WITH A CENTER
CLOSER TO THE COAST IS NOT COMPLETELY EXCLUDED AT THE MOMENT. ON A
LONGER TIME SCALE, THE GUIDELINES SHOW STRONG DISPARITIES IN THE
SPEED OF MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHWEST TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT MODELS AVAILABLE, WITH A TRACK THAT IS
MORE SIMILAR TO IFS, BUT WITH A HIGHER DISPLACEMENT SPEED. HOWEVER,
THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IMPORTANT ON THE LONG TERM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FREDDY IS CURRENTLY FINDING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO ITS INTENSIFICATION. INDEED, WITH A WEAK WIND
SHEAR UNTIL MONDAY, AN INCREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG THE
TRACK AND A GOOD DIVERGENCE OF ALTITUDE, FREDDY SHOULD REACH THE
STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN THE
LONGER TERM, ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT FREDDY SHOULD INTENSIFY
UNTIL THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS, WE CAN SEE THAT A
SHEAR STRESS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE PRESENT DURING ITS MOVEMENT
TOWARDS THE NORTH, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY BE A CONSTRAINT TO A MORE
IMPORTANT INTENSIFICATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR
* HEAVY RAINS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE WEST
COAST OF MENABE AND ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OVER 72
HOURS RANGING FROM 100 TO 200 MM WITH POTENTIALLY 250-350 MM OVER THE
REGION OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (UP TO 200 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE).
INDIRECTLY, RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA (VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY AND
ATSIMO-ATSINANANA REGIONS) WITH CUMULUS THAT COULD BE AROUND
200-250MM IN 72H, INCLUDING 100-1500M IN THE NEXT 24H.
* GALE OVER THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION, FOR THE NEXT 48H, MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.
* VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M AT FIRST AROUND CAPE
SAINT-VINCENT THEN EXTENDING TO CAPE SAINT-MARIE DURING THE DAY.
GRADUAL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 050610
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 052/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 41.7 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 155 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 195 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
23.1 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/06 AT 06 UTC:
23.5 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230305011541
2023030500 11S FREDDY 046 01 100 06 SATL 060
T000 228S 0413E 045 R034 070 NE QD 125 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 232S 0423E 045 R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 235S 0431E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 237S 0431E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 235S 0425E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 223S 0419E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 212S 0408E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 203S 0398E 080 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 046
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 41.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 41.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.2S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.5S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.7S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.5S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.3S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.2S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.3S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 22.9S 41.6E.
05MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 71
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.
//
1123020412 127S1168E 20
1123020418 122S1173E 20
1123020500 118S1178E 25
1123020506 115S1184E 25
1123020512 114S1189E 25
1123020518 116S1193E 25
1123020600 120S1193E 30
1123020606 123S1191E 35
1123020612 127S1189E 45
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022206 217S 450E 45
1123022212 221S 434E 25
1123022218 220S 424E 30
1123022300 222S 413E 30
1123022306 224S 404E 40
1123022312 226S 396E 55
1123022312 226S 396E 55
1123022318 228S 387E 55
1123022318 228S 387E 55
1123022400 225S 376E 60
1123022400 225S 376E 60
1123022406 225S 364E 60
1123022406 225S 364E 60
1123022412 226S 351E 50
1123022412 226S 351E 50
1123022418 226S 345E 45
1123022500 226S 338E 40
1123022506 228S 333E 30
1123022512 229S 331E 30
1123022518 227S 331E 25
1123022600 224S 333E 25
1123022606 219S 331E 25
1123022612 215S 331E 25
1123022618 213S 331E 25
1123022700 209S 332E 25
1123022706 209S 326E 20
1123022712 215S 314E 20
1123022718 219S 319E 20
1123022800 220S 322E 20
1123022806 221S 325E 15
1123022812 221S 331E 15
1123022818 218S 330E 15
1123030100 219S 333E 15
1123030106 223S 343E 15
1123030112 223S 350E 15
1123030118 223S 356E 20
1123030200 221S 360E 20
1123030206 218S 359E 25
1123030212 212S 372E 25
1123030218 216S 378E 25
1123030300 219S 378E 25
1123030306 220S 380E 25
1123030312 218S 381E 30
1123030318 220S 387E 30
1123030400 223S 390E 30
1123030406 225S 394E 35
1123030412 226S 400E 40
1123030418 227S 407E 45
1123030500 228S 413E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 046//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 41.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 41.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.2S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.5S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.7S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.5S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.3S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.2S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.3S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 22.9S 41.6E.
05MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 71
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050100
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 54/7/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.7 S / 41.2 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 360 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 195 NO: 130

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SO: 285 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 06/03/2023 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 360 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 06/03/2023 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 350 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 07/03/2023 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 380 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 07/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 350 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 08/03/2023 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/03/2023 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

120H: 10/03/2023 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 325 SO: 305 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 195 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FREDDY A CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER
GLOBALEMENT. MALGRE UNE HAUSSE DE LA TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX,
LE CENTRE EST BIEN MIEUX INCLUS AU SEIN DE LA CONVECTION QUI SE
RENFORCE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. CELA EST CONFIRME PAR LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 2204Z OU LE TILT ENTRE LA CIRCULATION EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE ET CELLE EN BASSES COUCHES SEMBLE MOINS IMPORTANT.
L'INTENSITE EST DONC REHAUSSEE A 45KT.


FREDDY SE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD, JUSQU'A LUNDI. CEPENDANT CE
DEPLACEMENT VA RESTER LENT EN RAISON D'UN DEUXIEME FLUX DIRECTEUR
CONTRADICTOIRE PLUS FAIBLE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GONFLE AU
SUD-OUEST DE FREDDY ET DEVRAIT L'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD OU NORD-OUEST.
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE SUIT UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES DISPONIBLES. IL EST A NOTER QUE LES DETAILS DE LA
LOCALISATION ET DE LA CHRONOLOGIE DU POINT DE REBROUSSEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE A PROXIMITE DE MADAGASCAR SONT ENCORE INCERTAINS ET
QU'UNE OPTION PLUS PESSIMISTE AVEC UN CENTRE SE RAPPROCHANT PLUS PRES
DES COTES EST LOIN D'ETRE EXCLUE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, LES GUIDANCES MONTRENT DE FORTES DISPARITES DANS LA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE NORD-OUEST. L'INCERTITUDE RESTE
DONC IMPORTANTE A LONGUE ECHEANCE.

AVEC LA BAISSE PROGRESSIVE DU CISAILLEMENT JSUQU'A LUNDI,
L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE FREDDY DEVIENT PLUS FAVORABLE A SON DEVELOPPEMENT.
GRACE A LA HAUSSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE LE LONG DE SA TRAJECTOIRE ET
D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, FREDDY DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. A PLUS LONG
TERME, L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SUGGERENT QUE FREDDY DEVRAIT
S'INTENSIFIER. MALGRE TOUT ON PEUT VOIR QU'UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE
DE SECTEUR SUD SERA PRESENTE LORS DE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE NORD.
SON DEVELOPPEMENT POURRAIT DONC ETRE GENE PAR CETTE CONTRAINTE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR
* DE FORTES PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE JUSQU'A AU MOINS LUNDI SUR LES
REGIONS COTIERES DE LA COTE OUEST ALLANT DE MELAKY A
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. ON ATTEND DES CUMULS SUR 72H ALLANT DE 100 A 200 MM
AVEC POTENTIELLEMENT 300-400 MM SUR LA REGION DE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA
(JUSQU'A 200 MM EN 24H POSSIBLE). INDIRECTEMENT, DES PLUIES SONT
AUSSI ATTENDUES SUR LA ZONE SUD-EST (REGIONS DE VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY
ET ATSIMO-ATSINANANA) AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANT AVOISINER LES 200 MM EN
48H SUR LA PERIODE DIMANCHE-LUNDI.
* ARRIVEE PROGRESSIVE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE SUR LA
REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ET JUSQU'A AU MOINS LUNDI, MER TRES FORTE AVEC
DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6 M SUR LES COTES DE LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (AU
NORD DE TULEAR PRINCIPALEMENT) AINSI QUE SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION DE
MENABE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050100
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 54/7/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 41.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 360 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/05 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/06 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 360 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2023/03/06 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 350 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2023/03/07 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 380 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2023/03/07 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 350 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2023/03/08 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/09 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

120H: 2023/03/10 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

FREDDY'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE GLOBALLY. IN SPITE OF
AN INCREASE IN THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE, THE CENTER IS MUCH BETTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION WHICH IS STRENGTHENING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 2204Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGES
WHERE THE TILT BETWEEN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE CIRCULATION AND THE
LOW-LEVEL ONE SEEMS LESS IMPORTANT. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
INCREASED TO 45KT.

FREDDY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, UNTIL MONDAY. HOWEVER THIS
MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO A SECOND WEAKER CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS, A NEW RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SWELLS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF FREDDY AND SHOULD STEER IT NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS
AVAILABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DETAILS OF LOCATION AND TIMING
OF THE TURNING POINT OF THE TRACK NEAR MADAGASCAR ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
AND THAT A MORE PESSIMISTIC OPTION WITH A CENTER CLOSER TO THE COAST
IS FAR FROM BEING RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. IN THE LONGER TERM,
GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG DISPARITIES IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT ALONG THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE UNCERTAINTY THUS REMAINS IMPORTANT AT LONG
RANGE.

WITH THE PROGRESSIVE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR UNTIL MONDAY, THE
ENVIRONMENT OF FREDDY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT.
THANKS TO THE INCREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG ITS TRACK AND A
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, FREDDY SHOULD REACH THE STAGE OF STRONG
TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT LONGER RANGE, ALL THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT FREDDY SHOULD INTENSIFY. NEVERTHELESS, WE CAN NOTICE THE
PRESENCE OF A SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT DURING ITS NORTHWARD MOTION.
ITS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE HINDERED BY THIS CONSTRAINT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR
* HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WEST COAST FROM MELAKY TO ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. WE EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS OVER 72 HOURS RANGING FROM 100 TO 200 MM WITH
POTENTIALLY 300-400 MM OVER THE REGION OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (UP TO 200
MM IN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE). INDIRECTLY, RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREA (VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY AND ATSIMO-ATSINANANA
REGIONS) WITH ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY REACH AROUND 200 MM IN 48H OVER
THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD.
* GRADUAL ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.
* FROM SUNDAY UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY, VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES OF 4
TO 6 M ON THE COASTS OF THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION (NORTH OF TULEAR
MAINLY) AS WELL AS ON THE SOUTH OF THE MENABE REGION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 050027
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/03/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 051/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/03/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7 S / 41.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 155 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 195 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/05 AT 12 UTC:
22.9 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/06 AT 00 UTC:
23.4 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041908
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 53/7/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 04/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 40.6 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 325 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 130

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2023 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SO: 345 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 05/03/2023 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 390 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 06/03/2023 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 380 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 06/03/2023 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 380 SO: 380 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 07/03/2023 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 370 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 07/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/03/2023 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 285 SO: 295 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 09/03/2023 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 295 SO: 305 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=2.5+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FREDDY S'EST LEGEREMENT AMELIOREE DEPUIS
12UTC. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE RESTE PRINICPALEMENT PRESENTE DANS LE
DEMO-CERCLE SUD MAIS LE CENTRE SEMBLE MIEUX INCLUS AU SEIN DE LA
CONVECTION. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA FIN DE JOURNEE NOTAMMENT LA
SSMIS DE 1548Z MONTRE UN RENFORCEMENT DE LA COURBURE DANS LA
CIRCULATION D'ALTTUDE MALGRE LE TILT AVEC LE CENTRE DE SURFACE. EN
CONSEQUENCE L'INTENSITE A ETE REHAUSSEE A 40KT. LA POSITION DU CENTRE
A PU ETRE SUIVIE GRACE AUX OBSERVATIONS DE LA STATION D'EUROPA. LE
MINIMUM DE PRESSION PEU APRES 16Z (993.3HPA) A ETE ASSOCIEE A UNE
RAPIDE ROTATION DES VENTS DE L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST AU SUD-SUD-OUEST.

FREDDY SE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD, JUSQU'A LUNDI. CEPENDANT CE
DEPLACEMENT VA RESTER LENT EN RAISON D'UN DEUXIEME FLUX DIRECTEUR
CONTRADICTOIRE PLUS FAIBLE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GONFLE AU
SUD-OUEST DE FREDDY ET DEVRAIT L'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD OU NORD-OUEST.
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE SUIT UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES DISPONIBLES. IL EST A NOTER QUE LES DETAILS DE LA
LOCALISATION ET DE LA CHRONOLOGIE DU POINT DE REBROUSSEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE A PROXIMITE DE MADAGASCAR SONT ENCORE INCERTAINS ET
QU'UNE OPTION PLUS PESSIMISTE AVEC UN CENTRE SE RAPPROCHANT PLUS PRES
DES COTES EST LOIN D'ETRE EXCLUE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, LES GUIDANCES MONTRENT DE FORTES DISPARITES DANS LA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE NORD-OUEST.

L'INTENSIFICATION DE FREDDY RESTE LENTE POUR L'INSTANT EN RAISON DE
SA STRUCTURE LARGE ET D'UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR
OUEST AYANT ADVECTE DE L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRES DU
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. CE DERNIER DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT
S'ATTENUER D'ICI DIMANCHE AVANT DE FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR
DE LUNDI, FAVORISANT UNE INTENSIFICATION PROGRESSIVE. CELA EST
EGALEMENT RENDUE POSSIBLE PAR LA HAUSSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE LE
LONG DE SA TRAJECTOIRE ET D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. IL EST
DONC PREVU QUE FREDDY ATTEIGNE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
DIMANCHE. A PLUS LONG TERME, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER MEME SI LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT LE GENER.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR
* DE FORTES PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE JUSQU'A AU MOINS LUNDI SUR LES
REGIONS COTIERES DE LA COTE OUEST ALLANT DE MELAKY A
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. ON ATTEND DES CUMULS SUR 72H ALLANT DE 100 A 200 MM
AVEC POTENTIELLEMENT 300-400 MM SUR LA REGION DE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA
(JUSQU'A 200 MM EN 24H POSSIBLE). INDIRECTEMENT, DES PLUIES SONT
AUSSI ATTENDUES SUR LA ZONE SUD-EST (REGIONS DE VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY
ET ATSIMO-ATSINANANA) AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANT AVOISINER LES 200 MM EN
48H SUR LA PERIODE DIMANCHE-LUNDI.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE SUR LA
REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ET JUSQU'A AU MOINS LUNDI, MER TRES FORTE AVEC
DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6 M SUR LES COTES DE LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (AU
NORD DE TULEAR PRINCIPALEMENT) AINSI QUE SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION DE
MENABE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041908
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 53/7/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 40.6 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 325 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/05 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 345 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2023/03/05 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 390 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2023/03/06 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 380 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2023/03/06 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 380 SW: 380 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2023/03/07 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 370 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2023/03/07 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/08 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2023/03/09 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

FREDDY'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE 12UTC. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL MAINLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BUT THE CENTER SEEMS TO BE MORE INCLUDED WITHIN THE
CONVECTION. THE LATE AFTERNOON MICROWAVE IMAGES, ESPECIALLY THE 1548Z
SSMIS, SHOW A STRENGTHENING OF THE CURVATURE IN THE UPPER CIRCULATION
DESPITE THE TILT WITH THE SURFACE CENTER. AS A CONSEQUENCE THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40KT. THE POSITION OF THE CENTER
COULD BE MONITORED THANKS TO THE EUROPA STATION OBSERVATIONS. THE
LOWEST PRESSURE SHORTLY AFTER 16Z (993.3HPA) WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
RAPID ROTATION OF THE WINDS FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FREDDY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, UNTIL MONDAY. HOWEVER THIS
MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO A SECOND WEAKER CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS, A NEW RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SWELLS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF FREDDY AND SHOULD STEER IT NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS
AVAILABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DETAILS OF LOCATION AND TIMING
OF THE TURNING POINT OF THE TRACK NEAR MADAGASCAR ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
AND THAT A MORE PESSIMISTIC OPTION WITH A CENTER CLOSER TO THE COAST
IS FAR FROM BEING RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. IN THE LONGER TERM,
GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG DISPARITIES IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT ALONG THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.

FREDDY'S INTENSIFICATION REMAINS SLOW FOR THE MOMENT DUE TO ITS BROAD
STRUCTURE AND A WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS ADVECTED DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR NEAR THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE LATTER SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND EVEN MORE ON MONDAY,
FAVORING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS ALSO MADE POSSIBLE BY THE
INCREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG ITS TRACK AND A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. FREDDY IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BECOME A SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM ON SUNDAY. AT LONGER TERM, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY EVEN
IF THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD TEMPORARILY RESTRAIN IT.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR
* HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WEST COAST FROM MELAKY TO ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. WE EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS OVER 72 HOURS RANGING FROM 100 TO 200 MM WITH
POTENTIALLY 300-400 MM OVER THE REGION OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (UP TO 200
MM IN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE). INDIRECTLY, RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREA (VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY AND ATSIMO-ATSINANANA
REGIONS) WITH ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY REACH AROUND 200 MM IN 48H OVER
THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD.
* PROBABLE ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.
* FROM SUNDAY UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY, VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES OF 4
TO 6 M ON THE COASTS OF THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION (NORTH OF TULEAR
MAINLY) AS WELL AS ON THE SOUTH OF THE MENABE REGION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 041831 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 050/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/03/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 40.6 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
22.7 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
23.0 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 041818
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 050/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/03/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 40.6 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 210 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
22.7 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT,
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/05 AT 18 UTC:
23.0 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT,
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230304131754
2023030412 11S FREDDY 045 01 100 05 SATL SYNP 020
T000 225S 0396E 040 R034 060 NE QD 125 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 227S 0407E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 231S 0417E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 235S 0422E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 236S 0421E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 226S 0414E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 212S 0406E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 204S 0402E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 045
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032051ZMAR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 39.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 39.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.7S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.1S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.5S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.6S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.6S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.2S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.4S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 39.9E.
04MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA
SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 11S, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED
WARNINGS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.
1123020412 127S1168E 20
1123020418 122S1173E 20
1123020500 118S1178E 25
1123020506 115S1184E 25
1123020512 114S1189E 25
1123020518 116S1193E 25
1123020600 120S1193E 30
1123020606 123S1191E 35
1123020612 127S1189E 45
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022206 217S 450E 45
1123022212 221S 434E 25
1123022218 220S 424E 30
1123022300 222S 413E 30
1123022306 224S 404E 40
1123022312 226S 396E 55
1123022312 226S 396E 55
1123022318 228S 387E 55
1123022318 228S 387E 55
1123022400 225S 376E 60
1123022400 225S 376E 60
1123022406 225S 364E 60
1123022406 225S 364E 60
1123022412 226S 351E 50
1123022412 226S 351E 50
1123022418 226S 345E 45
1123022500 226S 338E 40
1123022506 228S 333E 30
1123022512 229S 331E 30
1123022518 227S 331E 25
1123022600 224S 333E 25
1123022606 219S 331E 25
1123022612 215S 331E 25
1123022618 213S 331E 25
1123022700 209S 332E 25
1123022706 209S 326E 20
1123022712 215S 314E 20
1123022718 219S 319E 20
1123022800 220S 322E 20
1123022806 221S 325E 15
1123022812 221S 331E 15
1123022818 218S 330E 15
1123030100 219S 333E 15
1123030106 223S 343E 15
1123030112 223S 350E 15
1123030118 223S 356E 20
1123030200 221S 360E 20
1123030206 218S 359E 25
1123030212 212S 372E 25
1123030218 216S 378E 25
1123030300 219S 378E 25
1123030306 220S 380E 25
1123030312 218S 381E 30
1123030318 220S 387E 30
1123030400 223S 390E 30
1123030406 224S 391E 30
1123030412 225S 396E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 045//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032051ZMAR2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 39.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 39.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.7S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.1S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.5S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.6S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.6S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.2S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.4S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 39.9E.
04MAR23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA
SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 11S, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED
WARNINGS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 032100).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041230
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 52/7/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.4 S / 40.0 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 130 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/03/2023 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SO: 295 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 65

24H: 05/03/2023 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 06/03/2023 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SO: 335 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

48H: 06/03/2023 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 315 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 07/03/2023 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 35 NO: 45

72H: 07/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 35 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/03/2023 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 285 SO: 295 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 35

120H: 09/03/2023 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 50

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=2.5+


LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FREDDY A PEU EVOLUE DEPUIS 06UTC, AVEC
UN CENTRE TOUJOURS A PROXIMITE DE LA POINTE DE LA BANDE INCURVEE. LA
STATION METEOROLOGIQUE DE L'ILE D'EUROPA, EN BORDURE EST DU CENTRE DU
SYSTEME, A MESURE UNE PRESSION DE 996HPA, CE QUI A PERMIS DE
RETOUCHER LA PRESSION CENTRALE A 995HPA. LE VENT A LA STATION A
TOURNE AU SECTEUR NORD-OUEST, CE QUI SUGGERE QUE LA CIRCULATION DE
BASSES COUCHES EST LEGEREMENT ALLONGEE DANS UN AXE NORD-OUEST/SUD-EST
COMME SUGGERE PAR L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE ET PAR CERTAINES GUIDANCES
(EN PARTICULIER AROME ET GFS). LES 33KT DE VENT MOYEN MESURES A 10UTC
SEMBLENT AUSSI INDIQUER QUE LE COUP DE VENT EST PROBABLEMENT DEVENU
PLUS ETENDU QUE CE MATIN. EN L'ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNEES, L'INTENSITE
DU SYSTEME EST LAISSEE A 35KT.

FREDDY SE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD, JUSQU'A LUNDI. CEPENDANT CE
DEPLACEMENT VA RESTER LENT EN RAISON D'UN DEUXIEME FLUX DIRECTEUR
CONTRADICTOIRE PLUS FAIBLE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GONFLE AU
SUD-OUEST DE FREDDY ET DEVRAIT L'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD OU NORD-OUEST.
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE SUIT UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES DISPONIBLES. IL EST A NOTER QUE LES DETAILS DE LA
LOCALISATION ET DE LA CHRONOLOGIE DU POINT DE REBROUSSEMENT DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE A PROXIMITE DE MADAGASCAR SONT ENCORE INCERTAINS ET
QU'UNE OPTION PLUS PESSIMISTE AVEC UN CENTRE SE RAPPROCHANT PLUS PRES
DES COTES EST LOIN D'ETRE EXCLUE A L'HEURE ACTUELLE. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, LES GUIDANCES MONTRENT DE FORTES DISPARITES DANS LA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE NORD-OUEST.

L'INTENSIFICATION DE FREDDY RESTE LENTE POUR L'INSTANT EN RAISON DE
SA STRUCTURE LARGE ET D'UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR
OUEST AYANT ADVECTE DE L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRES DU
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. CE DERNIER DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT
S'ATTENUER D'ICI DIMANCHE AVANT DE FAIBLIR PLUS FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR
DE LUNDI, FAVORISANT UNE INTENSIFICATION PROGRESSIVE, QUI EST AUSSI
RENDUE POSSIBLE PAR LA HAUSSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE LE LONG DE SA
TRAJECTOIRE ET D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LA PLUPART DES
MODELES PREVOIT UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE, MALGRE DE POSSIBLES
FLUCTUATIONS AU SEIN DE CETTE TENDANCE GENERALE A LA HAUSSE. IL EST
DONC PREVU QUE FREDDY ATTEIGNE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
D'ICI SON PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES COTES MALGACHES, PUIS POSSIBLEMENT
AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR
* DE FORTES PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE A PARTIR DE SAMEDI ET CE JUSQU'A
AU MOINS LUNDI SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE LA COTE OUEST ALLANT DE
MELAKY A ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. ON ATTEND DES CUMULS SUR 72H ALLANT DE 100
A 200 MM AVEC POTENTIELLEMENT 300-400 MM SUR LA REGION DE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (JUSQU'A 200 MM EN 24H POSSIBLE) SI UN SCENARIO DE
RAPPROCHEMENT ENCORE PLUS MARQUE DU SYSTEME DEVAIT S'OPERER SUR LA
PERIODE DIMANCHE-LUNDI. INDIRECTEMENT, DES PLUIES SONT AUSSI
ATTENDUES SUR LA ZONE SUD-EST (REGIONS DE VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY ET
ATSIMO-ATSINANANA) AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANT AVOISINER LES 200 MM EN
48H SUR LA PERIODE DIMANCHE-LUNDI.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE SUR LA
REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ET JUSQU'A AU MOINS LUNDI, MER TRES FORTE AVEC
DES VAGUES DE 4 A 6 M SUR LES COTES DE LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (AU
NORD DE TULEAR PRINCIPALEMENT) AINSI QUE SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION DE
MENABE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 52/7/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 40.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/05 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 65

24H: 2023/03/05 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2023/03/06 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 390 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2023/03/06 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2023/03/07 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 45

72H: 2023/03/07 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/08 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2023/03/09 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+


FREDDY'S CLOUD PATTERN HASN'T CHANGED MUCH SINCE 06UTC, WITH A LLC
STILL ESTIMATED UNDER THE TIP OF THE CURVED BAND. EUROPA ISLAND'S AWS
HAS RECORDED A PRESSURE OF 996HPA, ENABLING AN ESTIMATION OF THE
SYSTEM'S CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 995HPA. THE STATION'S OBSERVED WIND
DATA SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHWESTERLIES,
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE LLC IS SOMEHOW ELONGATED ALONG A NW/SE AXIS
AS HINTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SOME OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
(ESPECIALLY AROME AND GFS). THE 33KT MEAN WIND RECORDED AT 10UTC
SUGGESTS THAT GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE PROBABLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THIS MORNING. WITHOUT ANY OTHER NEW DATA INPUT, THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 35KT.

FREDDY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, UNTIL MONDAY. HOWEVER THIS
MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO A SECOND WEAKER CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS, A NEW RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SWELLS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF FREDDY AND SHOULD STEER IT NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS
AVAILABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DETAILS OF LOCATION AND TIMING
OF THE TURNING POINT OF THE TRACK NEAR MADAGASCAR ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
AND THAT A MORE PESSIMISTIC OPTION WITH A CENTER CLOSER TO THE COAST
IS FAR FROM BEING RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. IN THE LONGER TERM,
GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG DISPARITIES IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT ALONG THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.

FREDDY'S INTENSIFICATION RATE IS CURRENTLY QUITE SLOW DUE TO ITS
BROAD STRUCTURE AND WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS ADVECTED
DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR NEAR THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE LATTER SHOULD EASE A BIT BY SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING
MORE FRANKLY FROM MONDAY, FAVORING MORE OR LESS INTENSIFICATION,
WHICH IS ALSO BACKED BY INCREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG THE TRACK
AS WELL AS GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. GUIDANCE ALSO FORECASTS A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
GENERAL UPWARD TREND. FREDDY IS THUS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT MOVES NEAR THE MALAGASY COAST
AND THEN IT COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AROUND MID-WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR
* HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS OF THE WEST COAST FROM MELAKY TO ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. WE
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OVER 72 HOURS RANGING FROM 100 TO 200 MM WITH
POTENTIALLY 300-400 MM OVER THE REGION OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (UP TO 200
MM IN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE) IF THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST EVEN
CLOSER THAN FORECAST AROUND SUNDAY-MONDAY. INDIRECTLY, RAINS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA (VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY AND
ATSIMO-ATSINANANA REGIONS) WITH ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY REACH AROUND
200 MM IN 48H OVER THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD.
* PROBABLE ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.
* FROM SUNDAY UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY, VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES OF 4
TO 6 M ON THE COASTS OF THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION (NORTH OF TULEAR
MAINLY) AS WELL AS ON THE SOUTH OF THE MENABE REGION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 041212
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 049/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/03/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 40.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND LOCALLY UP TO 500 NM IN
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 70
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/05 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 200 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/05 AT 12 UTC:
23.0 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040627
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 51/7/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 39.3 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 405 SO: 280 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 270 SO: 280 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 55

24H: 05/03/2023 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 285 SO: 230 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 05/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 220 SO: 350 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 0 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 45

48H: 06/03/2023 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SO: 360 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 45

60H: 06/03/2023 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 220 SO: 360 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 195 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 45

72H: 07/03/2023 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SO: 325 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/03/2023 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 305 SO: 305 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

120H: 09/03/2023 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=2.5+


LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FREDDY A CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER CE
MATIN. LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES ESTIME EST REPASSE SOUS LA BORDURE
OUEST DE LA ZONE CONVECTIVE DENSE, QUI S'EST INTENSIFIEE EN ADOPTANT
UNE STRUCTURE DE BANDE INCURVEE SUR UN PEU PLUS D'UN DEMI-TOUR. UNE
PASSE SMOS A 0336Z A MESURE DES VENTS A 44KT (PROBABLEMENT
SURESTIMES) ET LA PASSE ASCAT-C DE 0648Z MONTRE AU MOINS 35KT,
SUGGERANT QUE LE COUP DE VENT EST ATTEINT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.
L'INTENSITE DE FREDDY EST AINSI ESTIMEE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE. PAR AILLEURS, L'EXTENSION DU GRAND FRAIS A ETE ETENDUE
JUSQU'A LA BANDE CONVECTIVE INTENSE QUI LONGE LA COTE CENTRE-OUEST DE
MADAGASCAR, COMME LE CONFIRMENT LES PASSES ASCAT PARTIELLES DE 0554Z
ET 0648Z.

FREDDY DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD, JUSQU'A LUNDI.
CEPENDANT CE DEPLACEMENT VA RESTER LENT EN RAISON D'UN DEUXIEME FLUX
DIRECTEUR CONTRADICTOIRE PLUS FAIBLE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE GONFLE AU SUD-OUEST DE FREDDY ET DEVRAIT L'ORIENTER VERS
LE NORD OU NORD-OUEST. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE SUIT UN
CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES. IL EST A NOTER QUE LES
DETAILS DE LA LOCALISATION ET DE LA CHRONOLOGIE DU POINT DE
REBROUSSEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE A PROXIMITE DE MADAGASCAR SONT ENCORE
INCERTAINS ET QU'UNE OPTION PLUS PESSIMISTE AVEC UN CENTRE SE
RAPPROCHANT PLUS PRES DES COTES EST LOIN D'ETRE EXCLU A L'HEURE
ACTUELLE. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES GUIDANCES MONTRENT DE FORTES
DISPARITES DANS LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
NORD-OUEST.

L'INTENSIFICATION DE FREDDY RESTE LENTE POUR L'INSTANT EN RAISON DE
SA STRUCTURE LARGE ET D'UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR
OUEST AYANT ADVECTE DE L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. CE DERNIER DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR
CE WEEK-END AVANT DE FAIBLIR LUNDI FAVORISANT UN RYTHME DE
DEVELOPPEMENT LENT MALGRE LA TENDANCE A LA HAUSSE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE,
TIRANT PARTI DES EAUX CHAUDES ET DE LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, FREDDY
DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, LES DERNIERS RUNS MAINTIENNENT UNE INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE
AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT. IL EST DONC PROBABLE QUE FREDDY
ATTEIGNE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR
* DE FORTES PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE A PARTIR DE SAMEDI ET CE JUSQU'A
AU MOINS LUNDI SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE LA COTE OUEST ALLANT DE
MELAKY A ATSIMO-ANDREFANA. ON ATTEND DES CUMULS SUR 72H ALLANT DE 100
A 200 MM AVEC POTENTIELLEMENT 300-400 MM SUR LA REGION DE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (JUSQU'A 200 MM EN 24H POSSIBLE) SI UN SCENARIO DE
RAPPROCHEMENT ENCORE PLUS MARQUE DU SYSTEME DEVAIT S'OPERER SUR LA
PERIODE DIMANCHE-LUNDI. INDIRECTEMENT, DES PLUIES SONT AUSSI
ATTENDUES SUR LA ZONE SUD-EST (REGIONS DE VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY ET
ATSIMO-ATSINANANA) AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANT EXCEDER LES 150 MM EN 48H
SUR LA PERIODE DIMANCHE-LUNDI.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE SUR LA
REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ET JUSQU'A AU MOINS LUNDI, MER TRES FORTE AVEC
DES VAGUES DE 4 A 5 M SUR LES COTES DE LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (AU
NORD DE TULEAR PRINCIPALEMENT) AINSI QUE SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION DE
MENABE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 51/7/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 39.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 405 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/04 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 55

24H: 2023/03/05 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2023/03/05 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 220 SW: 350 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 45

48H: 2023/03/06 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 360 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 45

60H: 2023/03/06 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 220 SW: 360 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 195 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 45

72H: 2023/03/07 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SW: 325 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/08 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2023/03/09 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+


FREDDY'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. THE
ESTIMATED CENTER IS NOW UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN INTENSIFYING
CURVED BAND WRAPPING A BIT MORE THAN HALF WAY ROUND. A 0336Z SMOS
PASS SHOWS WINDS UP TO 44KT (PROBABLY OVERESTIMATED) AND THE PARTIAL
0648Z ASCAT-C PASS INDICATES AT LEAST 35KT, WHICH HINT THAT WINDS
REACH GALE FORCE IN THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. FREDDY'S
INTENSITY HAS THUS BEEN UPGRADED AT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
MOREOVER, THE EXTENSION OF NEAR-GALE WINDS NOW REACHES THE INTENSE
CONVECTIVE BAND SKIRTING THE MALAGASY CENTRAL-WESTERN COAST, AS
CONFIRMED BY THE PARTIAL 0554Z AND 0648Z ASCAT PASSES.

FREDDY SHOULD MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, UNTIL MONDAY. HOWEVER THIS
MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO A SECOND WEAKER CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS, A NEW RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SWELLS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF FREDDY AND SHOULD STEER IT NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS
AVAILABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DETAILS OF LOCATION AND TIMING
OF THE TURNING POINT OF THE TRACK NEAR MADAGASCAR ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
AND THAT A MORE PESSIMISTIC OPTION WITH A CENTER CLOSER TO THE COAST
IS FAR FROM BEING RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. IN THE LONGER TERM,
GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG DISPARITIES IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT ON THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.

FREDDY'S INTENSIFICATION RATE IS CURRENTLY QUITE SLOW DUE TO ITS
BROAD STRUCTURE AND WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS ADVECTED
DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE LATTER SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING
ON MONDAY FAVORING A SLOW PACE OF DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE UPWARD
TREND IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG THE TRACK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM WATERS AND REDUCED SHEAR, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE LAST
RUNS MAINTAIN CLEAR INTENSIFICATION WITH DECREASING SHEAR. IT IS NOW
FORECAST THAT FREDDY COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AROUND
MID-WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR
* HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE WEST COAST FROM MELAKY TO ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
WE EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OVER 72 HOURS RANGING FROM 100 TO 200 MM WITH
POTENTIALLY 300-400 MM OVER THE REGION OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (UP TO 200
MM IN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE) IF A SCENARIO OF EVEN CLOSER APPROACH OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD OCCUR AROUND SUNDAY-MONDAY. INDIRECTLY, RAINS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA (VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY AND
ATSIMO-ATSINANANA REGIONS) WITH ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY EXCEED 150 MM
IN 48H OVER THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD.
* PROBABLE ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.
* FROM SUNDAY UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY, VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES OF 4
TO 5 M ON THE COASTS OF THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION (NORTH OF TULEAR
MAINLY) AS WELL AS ON THE SOUTH OF THE MENABE REGION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 040609
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 048/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/03/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 39.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/04 AT 18 UTC:
22.4 S / 40.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/05 AT 06 UTC:
22.6 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040054
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 50/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 38.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 0

24H: 05/03/2023 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SO: 150 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 05/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 95

48H: 06/03/2023 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 45

60H: 06/03/2023 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SO: 285 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 07/03/2023 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/03/2023 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

120H: 09/03/2023 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SO: 205 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=2.0+


LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FREDDY A CONTINUE A MONTRER DES SIGNES
D'AMELIORATION CETTE NUIT AVEC UNE ACTIVITE QUI S'EST RAPPROCHEE DU
CENTRE ESTIME ET QUI COMMENCE A S'ORGANISER EN BANDE INCURVEE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST. LE SYSTEME A DONC UNE CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE
SUFFISAMMENT DEFINIE, ASSOCIE A UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SUFFISAMMENT
ORGANISEE, POUR ETRE MAINTENANT CONSIDERE COMME UNE DEPRESSION
TROPICALE. LES PASS ASCAT DE LA NUIT MONTRENT EN EFFET QUE LE VENT NE
S'EST PAS FRANCHEMENT RENFORCE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION.

LA PRESENTE PREVISION NE PRESENTE QUE DES AJUSTEMENTS MINEURS PAR
RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE PREVISION: FREDDY DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER EN
DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE AU NORD, JUSQU'A LUNDI. CEPENDANT CE DEPLACEMENT VA
RESTER LENT EN RAISON D'UN DEUXIEME FLUX DIRECTEUR CONTRADICTOIRE
PLUS FAIBLE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. A PARTIR DE
LUNDI, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE GONFLE AU SUD-OUEST DE
FREDDY ET DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN CHANGEMENT DE CAP EN DIRECTION DU NORD
OU DU NORD-OUEST. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE SUIT UN
CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES. IL EST A NOTER QUE LES
DETAILS DE LA LOCALISATION ET DE LA CHRONOLOGIE DU POINT DE
REBROUSSEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE A PROXIMITE DE MADAGASCAR SONT ENCORE
INCERTAINS ET QU'UNE OPTION PLUS PESSIMISTE AVEC UN CENTRE SE
RAPPROCHANT PLUS PRES DES COTES EST LOIN D'ETRE EXCLU A L'HEURE
ACTUELLE. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES GUIDANCES MONTRENT DE FORTE
DISPARITES DANS LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
NORD-OUEST.

FREDDY PEINE POUR L'INSTANT A S'INTENSIFIER EN RAISON DE SA STRUCTURE
LARGE SUITE A SON LONG SEJOUR SUR LE CONTINENT, D'UN CISAILLEMENT
FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR OUEST AYANT ADVECTE DE L'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. CE
DERNIER DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR CE WEEK-END AVANT DE FAIBLIR LUNDI
FAVORISANT UN RYTHME DE DEVELOPPEMENT LENT MALGRE LA TENDANCE A LA
HAUSSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE. EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, TIRANT PARTIE DES EAUX CHAUDES ET DE LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE.
EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD POURRAIT
TEMPORAIREMENT SE RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE A CONTRARIER LE PROCESSUS
D'INTENSIFICATION. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES DERNIERS RUNS
MAINTIENNENT UNE INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE AVEC LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET CETTE TENDANCE EST MAINTENANT PARTIELLEMENT
RETRANSCRIS DANS LA NOUVELLE PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR
* DE FORTES PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE A PARTIR DE SAMEDI ET CE JUSQU'A
AU MOINS LUNDI SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE LA COTE OUEST ALLANT DE
MELAKY AU NORD A ATSIMO-ANDREFANA AU SUD. ON ATTEND DES CUMULS SUR
72H ALLANT DE 100 A 200 MM AVEC POTENTIELLEMENT 300-400 MM SUR LA
REGION DE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (JUSQU'A 200 MM EN 24H POSSIBLE) SI UN
SCENARIO DE RAPPROCHEMENT ENCORE PLUS MARQUE DU SYSTEME DEVAIT
S'OPERER SUR LA PERIODE DIMANCHE-LUNDI. INDIRECTEMENT, DES PLUIES
SONT AUSSI ATTENDUES SUR LA ZONE SUD-EST (REGIONS DE
VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY ET ATSIMO-ATSINANANA) AVEC DES CUMULS POUVANT
EXCEDER LES 150 MM EN 48H SUR LA PERIODE DIMANCHE-LUNDI.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE SUR LA
REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE ET JUSQU'A AU MOINS LUNDI, MER TRES FORTE AVEC
DES VAGUES DE 4 A 5 M SUR LES COTES DE LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (AU
NORD DE TULEAR PRINCIPALEMENT) AINSI QUE SUR LE SUD DE LA REGION DE
MENABE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040054
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 50/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 38.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/04 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 0

24H: 2023/03/05 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2023/03/05 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95

48H: 2023/03/06 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 45

60H: 2023/03/06 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2023/03/07 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/08 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2023/03/09 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0+


THE CLOUD PATTERN OF FREDDY CONTINUED TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING CLOSER TO THE ESTIMATED CENTER AND
BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE INTO A CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM HAS A SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION,
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, TO BE
NOW CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE ASCAT PASSES OF THE
NIGHT SHOW INDEED THAT THE WIND HAS NOT REALLY STRENGTHENED WITHIN
THE CIRCULATION.

THE PRESENT FORECAST SHOWS ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST: FREDDY SHOULD MOVE IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, UNTIL
MONDAY. HOWEVER THIS MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO A SECOND WEAKER
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, A NEW RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
SWELLS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FREDDY AND SHOULD ENCOURAGE A CHANGE OF
COURSE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS AVAILABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
DETAILS OF THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE TURNING POINT OF THE TRACK
NEAR MADAGASCAR ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AND THAT A MORE PESSIMISTIC
OPTION WITH A CENTER CLOSER TO THE COAST IS FAR FROM BEING EXCLUDED
AT THIS TIME. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG
DISPARITIES IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN TRACK.

FREDDY IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO ITS BROAD
STRUCTURE FOLLOWING ITS LONG STAY ON THE CONTINENT, A WEAK TO
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS ADVECTED DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR
INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LATTER SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY FAVORING A SLOW PACE
OF DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE UPWARD TREND IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG
THE TRACK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM WATERS AND
REDUCED SHEAR, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG STORM.
BY MID NEXT WEEK, THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN
AND LEAD TO A REVERSAL OF THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE LAST RUNS MAINTAIN A CLEAR INTENSIFICATION WITH THE
DECREASE OF THE SHEAR AND THIS TENDENCY IS NOW PARTIALLY REFLECTED IN
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR
* HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE WEST COAST FROM MELAKY IN THE NORTH TO
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA IN THE SOUTH. WE EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OVER 72 HOURS
RANGING FROM 100 TO 200 MM WITH POTENTIALLY 300-400 MM OVER THE
REGION OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (UP TO 200 MM IN 24 HOURS POSSIBLE) IF A
SCENARIO OF EVEN MORE MARKED APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD OCCUR OVER
THE PERIOD SUNDAY-MONDAY. INDIRECTLY, RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AREA (VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY AND ATSIMO-ATSINANANA
REGIONS) WITH ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY EXCEED 150 MM IN 48H ON
SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD.
* PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON SUNDAY OVER THE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.
* FROM SUNDAY UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY, VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES OF 4
TO 5 M ON THE COASTS OF THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION (NORTH OF TULEAR
MAINLY) AS WELL AS ON THE SOUTH OF THE MENABE REGION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 040027
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/03/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 047/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/03/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 38.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 320 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/04 AT 12 UTC:
22.3 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/05 AT 00 UTC:
22.5 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031846
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 49/7/20222023
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 03/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.9 S / 38.3 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SO: 220 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/03/2023 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 295 NO: 0

24H: 04/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 55

36H: 05/03/2023 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 65

48H: 05/03/2023 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 360 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 0

60H: 06/03/2023 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SO: 345 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 45

72H: 06/03/2023 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SO: 380 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 415 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 08/03/2023 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=1.5

DEPUIS 15Z, L'ACTIVITE PLUVIO-ORAGEUSE A COMMENCE A SE RENFORCER A
ENVIRON 30 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST (CF SSMIS DE 1608Z).
MALGRE TOUT LE CENTRE RESTE MAL DEFINI ET LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
PEINE ENCORE A SE STRUCTURER. LE SYSTEME RESTE DONC ANALYSE POUR
L'HEURE EN ZONE PERTURBEE AVEC DES VENTS MAX A 30 KT SITUE LOIN DU
CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

LA PRESENTE PREVISION NE PRESENTE PAS DE CHANGEMENT MAJEUR AVEC LA
PRECEDENTE: FREDDY DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD, JUSQU'A
LUNDI. CEPENDANT CE DEPLACEMENT VA RESTER LENT EN RAISON D'UN
DEUXIEME FLUX DIRECTEUR CONTRADICTOIRE PLUS FAIBLE PILOTE PAR LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE GONFLE AU SUD-OUEST DE FREDDY ET DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN
CHANGEMENT DE CAP EN DIRECTION DU NORD OU DU NORD-OUEST. LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE SUIT UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
DISPONIBLES. ELLE RESTE TOUTEFOIS ASSEZ INCERTAINE AU DELA DE LUNDI
COMME EN TEMOIGNE LA TRES FORTE DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN.

FREDDY PEINE POUR L'INSTANT A S'INTENSIFIER EN RAISON DE SA STRUCTURE
LARGE SUITE A SON LONG SEJOUR SUR LE CONTINENT, D'UN CISAILLEMENT
FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR OUEST AYANT ADVECTE DE L'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DANS LE DMEI-CERCLE OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. CE
DERNIER DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR CE WEEK-END AVANT DE FAIBLIR LUNDI
FAVORISANT UN RYTHME DE DEVELOPPEMENT LENT MALGRE LA TENDANCE A LA
HAUSSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE. EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, TIRANT PARTIE DES EAUX CHAUDES ET DE LA BAISSE DU
CISAILLEMENT, FREDDY DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE.
EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD POURRAIT SE
RENFORCER ET CONDUIRE A CONTRARIER LE PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION. A
PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES DERNIERS RUNS MAINTIENNENT UNE
INTENSIFICATION FRANCHE AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT, MAIS CELLE-CI
N'EST POUR L'INSTANT PAS FRANCHEMENT REFLETEE DANS LA PREVISION
COMPTE TENU D'UNE PREVISIBILITE JUGEE FAIBLE DE L'ENVIONNEMENT DU
SYSTEME A J4 ET J5.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR
* DE FORTES PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE A PARTIR DE SAMEDI ET CE JUSQU'A
AU MOINS LUNDI SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE LA COTE OUEST ALLANT DE
MELAKY AU NORD A ATSIMO-ANDREFANA AU SUD. ON ATTEND DES CUMULS SUR
72H ALLANT DE 100 A 200 MM AVEC POTENTIELLEMENT 300-400 MM SUR LA
REGION DE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA SI UN SCENARIO DE RAPPROCHEMENT ENCORE
PLUS MARQUE DU SYSTEME DEVAIT S'OPERER SUR LA PERIODE DIMANCHE-LUNDI.
INDIRECTEMENT, DES PLUIES SONT AUSSI ATTENDUES SUR LA ZONE SUD-EST
(REGIONS DE VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY ET ATSIMO-ATSINANANA) AVEC DES CUMULS
POUVANT EXCEDER LES 100 MM EN 48H SUR LA PERIODE DIMANCHE-LUNDI.
* ARRIVEE PROGRESSIVE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE SUR LA
REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* DES SAMEDI ET SURTOUT DIMANCHE, MER TRES FORTE AVEC DES VAGUES DE 4
A 6 M SUR LES COTES DE LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA, SUR LE SUD DE LA
REGION DE MENABE ET L'OUEST DE LA REGION D'ANDROY=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 49/7/20222023
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9 S / 38.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/04 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 295 NW: 0

24H: 2023/03/04 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 55

36H: 2023/03/05 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 65

48H: 2023/03/05 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 360 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 0

60H: 2023/03/06 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 345 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

72H: 2023/03/06 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SW: 380 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/07 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 415 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2023/03/08 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 465 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=1.5

SINCE 15Z, THE RAINSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STARTED TO STRENGTHEN AT ABOUT
30 MN FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT (SEE SSMIS OF 1608Z).
HOWEVER THE CENTER REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
STILL STRUGGLING TO BE STRUCTURED. THE SYSTEM IS STILL ANALYZED FOR
THE TIME BEING IN A DISTURBED ZONE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT
LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE PRESENT FORECAST DOES NOT PRESENT ANY MAJOR CHANGE WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE: FREDDY SHOULD MOVE IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, UNTIL
MONDAY. HOWEVER THIS MOVEMENT WILL REMAIN SLOW BECAUSE OF A SECOND
WEAKER CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, A NEW RIDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE SWELLS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FREDDY AND SHOULD ENCOURAGE A
CHANGE OF TRACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, IT REMAINS
RATHER UNCERTAIN BEYOND MONDAY AS SHOWN BY THE VERY STRONG DISPERSION
OF THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE.

FREDDY IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO ITS BROAD
STRUCTURE FOLLOWING ITS LONG STAY OVER THE CONTINENT, A WEAK TO
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS ADVECTED DRY AIR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE INTO THE WESTERN DMEI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
LATTER SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY
FAVORING A SLOW PACE OF DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE UPWARD TREND IN
OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALONG THE TRACK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, TAKING ADVANTAGE
OF THE WARM WATERS AND REDUCED SHEAR, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. BY MID NEXT WEEK, THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR
COULD STRENGTHEN AND LEAD TO A COUNTERACTING OF THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE LAST NWP OUTPUTS MAINTAIN A CLEAR
INTENSIFICATION WITH THE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR, BUT THIS IS NOT
REALLY REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, CONSIDERING THE LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF THE SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT AT D4 AND D5.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :
- MADAGASCAR
* HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE WEST COAST FROM MELAKY IN THE NORTH TO
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA IN THE SOUTH. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER
72 HOURS RANGING FROM 100 TO 200 MM WITH POTENTIALLY 300-400 MM OVER
THE REGION OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA IF A SCENARIO OF EVEN MORE MARKED
APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD OPERATE ON THE PERIOD SUNDAY-MONDAY.
INDIRECTLY, RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA
(VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY AND ATSIMO-ATSINANANA REGIONS) WITH RAINFALLS
AMOUNT THAT MAY EXCEED 100 MM IN 48H ON SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD.
* GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF THE GALE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE
ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.
* FROM SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES
FROM 4 TO 6 M ON THE COASTS OF THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION, ON THE
SOUTH OF THE MENABE REGION AND THE WEST OF THE ANDROY REGION=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 031825
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 046/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9 S / 38.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 185 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/04 AT 06 UTC:
22.0 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/04 AT 18 UTC:
22.4 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031235
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 48/7/20222023
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.8 S / 38.1 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 380 SO: 220 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/03/2023 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SO: 220 NO: 0

24H: 04/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 315 SO: 325 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 10

36H: 05/03/2023 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 130

48H: 05/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

60H: 06/03/2023 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 380 SO: 220 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 06/03/2023 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/03/2023 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 445 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 100 NO: 85

120H: 08/03/2023 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 480 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LE CENTRE DE FREDDY EST RESTE TOTALEMENT
EXPOSE LOIN DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE TOUJOURS DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST, SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST ET DE LA
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE
A 30KT.

FREDDY DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD, JUSQU'A LUNDI.
CEPENDANT CE DEPLACEMENT VA RESTER LENT EN RAISON D'UN DEUXIEME FLUX
DIRECTEUR CONTRADICTOIRE PLUS FAIBLE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE GONFLE AU SUD-OUEST DE FREDDY ET DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN
CHANGEMENT DE CAP EN DIRECTION DU NORD OU DU NORD-OUEST. LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE SUIT UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
DISPONIBLES. ELLE RESTE TOUTEFOIS ASSEZ INCERTAINE AU DELA DE LUNDI
COMME EN TEMOIGNE LA TRES FORTE DISPERSION DU MODELE DE 00Z DE
L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN.

FREDDY PEINE POUR L'INSTANT A S'INTENSIFIER EN RAISON DE SA STRUCTURE
LARGE SUITE A SON LONG SEJOUR SUR LE CONTINENT ET A CAUSE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR OUEST. CE DERNIER DEVRAIT SE
MAINTENIR CE WEEK-END AVANT DE FAIBLIR LUNDI LIMITANT AINSI LE
DEVELOPPEMENT DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE,
TIRANT PARTIE DES EAUX CHAUDES ET DE LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT,
FREDDY DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE. EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD POURRAIT SE RENFORCER ET
CONDUIRE A UN EVENTUEL AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, LA
PROXIMITE AVEC LES COTES MALGACHES POURRAIT EGALEMENT LIMITER SON
DEVELOPPENT. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES DERNIERES RUNS SUGGERENT QUE
L'INTENSIFICAITON POURRAIT REPRENDRE AVEC LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT.
DANS CE CONTEXTE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE PARTICULIEREMENT
INCERTAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR
* DES SAMEDI ET SURTOUT DIMANCHE, MER TRES FORTES AVEC DES VAGUES
DE 4 A 6 M SUR LES COTES DE LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA, SUR LE SUD DE
LA REGION DE MENABE ET L'OUEST DE LA REGION D'ANDROY
* ARRIVEE PROGRESSIVE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE SUR LA
REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* DE FORTES PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS SUR UNE
LARGE MOITIE OUEST ET SUD DE MADAGASCAR. ON ATTEND PLUS DE 100MM DANS
LES PROCHAINS 72H AU SUD D'UNE LIGNE MAINTRANO MANAKARA ET PRES DE
200 A 300MM SUR LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 48/7/20222023
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 38.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 380 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/04 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 0

24H: 2023/03/04 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 315 SW: 325 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 10

36H: 2023/03/05 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130

48H: 2023/03/05 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 350 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

60H: 2023/03/06 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 380 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2023/03/06 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/07 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 445 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 85

120H: 2023/03/08 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 480 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6H, FREDDY'S CENTER REMAINED FULLY EXPOSED, AWAY FROM
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID
TROPOSPHERE. THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30KT.

FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH TILL MONDAY. HOWEVER THIS MOTION WILL
REMAIN SLOW DUE TO A SECOND WEAKER CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW
DIRECTED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS,
A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FREDDY AND SHOULD
SUPPORT A CHANGE OF DIRECTION TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS AVAILABLE.
HOWEVER, IT REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN BEYOND MONDAY, AS SHOWN BY THE
WIDE SPREA IN THE EPS (ECMWF) 00Z RUN.

FREDDY IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO ITS BROAD
STRUCTURE FOLLOWING ITS LONG STAY OVER THE CONTINENT AND DUE TO A
WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE LATTER SHOULD LAST THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY THUS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT AT FIRST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM WATERS AND REDUCED
SHEAR, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE STORM. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD STRENGTHEN AND LEAD TO
AN EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. MOREOVER, THE PROXIMITY WITH THE
MALAGASY COASTS COULD ALSO LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT. AT LONGER RANGE,
THE LAST RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME WITH THE
DECREASE OF THE SHEAR. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MADAGASCAR
* FROM SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, VERY STRONG SEA WITH WAVES UP
TO 4 TO 6 M ON THE COASTS OF THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION, ON THE
SOUTH OF THE MENABE REGION AND WEST OF ANDROY REGION.
* GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF GALES ON SUNDAY IN THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER A LARGE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF MADAGASCAR. MORE THAN 100MM IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 72H SOUTH OF A MAINTRANO MANAKARA LINE AND NEARLY 200 TO 300MM
OVER THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 031221
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 045/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 38.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 205 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/04 AT 00 UTC:
22.0 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/04 AT 12 UTC:
22.2 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 5 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030640
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 47/7/20222023
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/03/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.1 S / 38.1 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SO: 195 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 0

24H: 04/03/2023 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 55

36H: 04/03/2023 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 75

48H: 05/03/2023 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 285 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 55

60H: 05/03/2023 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 345 SO: 315 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 06/03/2023 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/03/2023 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65

120H: 08/03/2023 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 24H, LE CENTRE DE FREDDY EST RESTE DURABLEMENT
A L'ECART DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE CONCENTREE DANS LES LIGNES DE
CONVERGENCES DANS LE DEMI CERCLE EST. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES
AINSI QUE LA RECENTE PASSE ASCAT DE 0616Z MONTRE QUE LE COEUR DU
SYSTEME RESTE ALLONGE AVEC LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS LOIN DU CENTRE.
ILS ATTEIGNENT CEPENDANT LE GRAND FRAIS. FREDDY EST DONC ANALYSE A
06Z EN TANT QUE ZONE PERTURBEE 30KT.

FREDDY DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD, JUSQU'A LUNDI.
CEPENDANT CE DEPLACEMENT VA RESTER LENT EN RAISON D'UN DEUXIEME FLUX
DIRECTEUR CONTRADICTOIRE PLUS FAIBLE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE GONFLE AU SUD-OUEST DE FREDDY ET DEVRAIT FAVORISER UN
CHANGEMENT DE CAP EN DIRECTION DU NORD OU DU NORD-OUEST. LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE SUIT UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
DISPONIBLES. ELLE RESTE TOUTEFOIS ASSEZ INCERTAINE AU DELA DE LUNDI.

FREDDY PEINE POUR L'INSTANT A S'INTENSIFIER EN RAISON DE SA STRUCTURE
LARGE SUITE A SON LONG SEJOUR SUR LE CONTINENT ET A CAUSE D'UN
CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR OUEST. CE DERNIER DEVRAIT SE
MAINTENIR CE WEEK-END AVANT DE FAIBLIR LUNDI LIMITANT AINSI LE
DEVELOPPEMENT DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE,
TIRANT PARTIE DES EAUX CHAUDES ET DE LA BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT,
FREDDY DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE. EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD POURRAIT SE RENFORCER ET
CONDUIRE A UN EVENTUEL AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, LA
PROXIMITE AVEC LES COTES MALGACHES POURRAIT EGALEMENT LIMITER SON
DEVELOPPENT. DANS CE CONTEXTE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE
PARTICULIEREMENT INCERTAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MADAGASCAR
* DES SAMEDI ET SURTOUT DIMANCHE, MER TRES FORTES AVEC DES VAGUES
DE 4 A 6 M SUR LES COTES DE LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA ET SUR LE SUD
DE LA REGION DE MENABE.
* ARRIVEE PROGRESSIVE DU COUP DE VENT EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE SUR LA
REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.
* DE FORTES PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS SUR UNE
LARGE MOITIE OUEST ET SUD DE MADAGASCAR. ON ATTEND PLUS DE 100MM DANS
LES PROCHAINS 72H AU SUD D'UNE LIGNE MAINTRANO MANAKARA ET PRES DE
200 A 300MM SUR LA REGION ATSIMO-ANDREFANA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 47/7/20222023
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/03/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 38.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SW: 195 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/03/03 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 0

24H: 2023/03/04 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 55

36H: 2023/03/04 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 75

48H: 2023/03/05 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 285 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 55

60H: 2023/03/05 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 345 SW: 315 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2023/03/06 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/03/07 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

120H: 2023/03/08 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, FREDDY'S CENTER HAS REMAINED PERSISTENTLY
FAR FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE SQUALL LINES IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE RECENT
0616Z ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE REMAINS ELONGATED WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS DISTANT FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THEY REACH THE NEAR
GALE FORCE. FREDDY IS THEREFORE ANALYZED AT 06Z AS A 30KT ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER.

FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH TILL MONDAY. HOWEVER THIS MOTION WILL
REMAIN SLOW DUE TO A SECOND WEAKER CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW
DIRECTED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS,
A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FREDDY AND SHOULD
SUPPORT A CHANGE OF DIRECTION TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS AVAILABLE.
HOWEVER, IT REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN BEYOND MONDAY.

FREDDY IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO ITS BROAD
STRUCTURE FOLLOWING ITS LONG STAY OVER THE CONTINENT AND DUE TO A
WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE LATTER SHOULD LAST THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY THUS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT AT FIRST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM WATERS AND REDUCED
SHEAR, FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE STORM. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD STRENGTHEN AND LEAD TO
AN EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. MOREOVER, THE PROXIMITY WITH THE
MALAGASY COASTS COULD ALSO LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT. IN THIS CONTEXT,
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MADAGASCAR
* FROM SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, VERY STRONG SEA WITH WAVES UP
TO 4 TO 6 M ON THE COASTS OF THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION AND ON THE
SOUTH OF THE MENABE REGION.
* GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF GALES ON SUNDAY IN THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.
* HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER A LARGE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF MADAGASCAR. MORE THAN 100MM IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 72H SOUTH OF A MAINTRANO MANAKARA LINE AND NEARLY 200 TO 300MM
OVER THE ATSIMO-ANDREFANA REGION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 030612
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/03/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 044/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/03/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 38.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/03/03 AT 18 UTC:
22.1 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/03/04 AT 06 UTC:
22.4 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251215
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 45/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.8 S / 32.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 32.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

72H: 28/02/2023 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FREDDY POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU NORD NORD-OUEST SUR
LES TERRES SUR MOZAMBIQUE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST ESSENTIELLEMENT
LOCALISE DANS UN LARGE LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME EN PRESENTANT DE
FORTES PRECIPITATIONS. DES RAFALES SOUS GRAIN SONT ENCORE ATTENDUES
MAIS LES VENTS SONT MAINTENANT DE L'ORDRE DE 25KT PRES DU CENTRE.
LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE S'EST AMELIOREE AVEC LE RETOUR DU JOUR,
CONFIRMEE PAR LES DONNEES GCOM DE 1120UTC.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT, FREDDY SOUS L'EFFET DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST PUIS DU RENFORCEMENT DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-OUEST,
FREDDY DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE AU NORD-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A
LUNDI, EN S'ENFONCANT DANS LES TERRES AFRICAINES TOUT EN SE COMBLANT
DURABLEMENT.

LE VORTEX DEVRAIT AINSI SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT EN COURS DE
WEEK-END POUR SE DISSIPER EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LES
TERRES DU ZIMBABWE. CE BULLETIN EST DONC LE DERNIER SUR CE SYSTEME,
QUI SERA ENSUITE SUIVI DANS LE BULLETIN AWIO21 FMEE.

EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE, LE RETOUR D'UNE LARGE CIRCULATION DA
PRESSIONNAIRE SUR MER, ASSOCIE A UN NOUVEAU MINIMUM OU LES RESTES DE
FREDDY DEVIENT ENVISAGEABLE. DANS UN CONTEXTE TEMPORAIREMENT PLUS
FAVORABLE A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT ET
BONNE DIVERGENCE POLAIRE ET A QUATORIALE) CE MINIMUM POURRAIT SE
DEVELLOPPER.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H, PLUIES INTENSES ENTRE BEIRA ET
INHAMBANE, AINSI QUE DANS L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES (PROVINCES DE GAZA
/ SUD DE MANICA / SUD DE SOFALA) AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES
200-300 MM. CES VALEURS PEUVENT LOCALEMENT ATTEINDRE LES 300-400 MM,
NOTAMMENT A LA FRONTIERE ENTRE LE ZIMBABWE ET LE MOZAMBIQUE. RISQUE
IMPORTANT D'INONDATIONS ET DE GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
- ZIMBABWE:
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD-EST DU PAYS, AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES
200 MM, POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 300 MM, A LA FRONTIERE AVEC
LE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251215
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 45/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 32.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 32.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

72H: 2023/02/28 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FREDDY IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTH NORTH-WEST INLAND OVER
MOZAMBIQUE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE WILD
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SQUALLS
ARE STILL EXPECTED BUT WINDS ARE NOW AROUND 25KT NEAR THE CENTER.
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER HAS IMPROVED WITH THE RETURN OF DAYLIGHT,
CONFIRMED BY THE GCOM DATA OF 1120UTC.

NO CHANGE, FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD, GUIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PASSAGE OF A UPPER TROUGH IN
THE SOUTH-WEST THEN OF THE REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE
SOUTH-WEST, FREDDY SHOULD CURVE ITS MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTH-WEST
UNTIL MONDAY, BY GOING INTO THE AFRICAN LANDS WHILE FILLING UP
DURABLY.

THE VORTEX SHOULD FILL PROGRESSIVELY DURING THE WEEKEND TO DISSIPATE
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE LAND OF ZIMBABWE. THIS
BULLETIN IS THE LAST ONE ON THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED IN
THE AWIO20 FMEE BULLETIN.

IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK, THE RETURN OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE
CIRCULATION OVER THE SEA, ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW MINIMUM OR THE
REMAINS OF FREDDY BECOMES POSSIBLE. IN A TEMPORARILY MORE FAVORABLE
CONTEXT IN FRONT OF AN UPPER TROUGH (WEAK SHEAR AND GOOD POLAR AND
EQUATORIAL DIVERGENCE) THIS MINIMUM COULD DEVELOP.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, INTENSE RAINS BETWEEN BEIRA AND
INHAMBANE, REACHING THE INTERIOR (PROVINCES OF GAZA / SOUTH OF MANICA
/ SOUTH OF SOFALA) WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 200-300 MM. THESE
VALUES MAY LOCALLY REACH 300-400 MM, ON THE BORDER BETWEEN ZIMBABWE
AND MOZAMBIQUE. SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES.
- ZIMBABWE:
* INTENSE RAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COUNTRY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 200 MM, POSSIBLY EXCEED 300 MM LOCALLY, AT THE BORDER WITH
MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250618
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 44/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.8 S / 33.3 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 28/02/2023 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 30.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FREDDY POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST SUD-OUEST SUR
LES TERRES SUR MOZAMBIQUE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST ESSENTIELLEMENT
LOCALISE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST DU SYSTEME EN PRESENTANT DE
FORTES PRECIPITATIONS. DES RAFALES SOUS GRAIN SONT ENCORE ATTENDUES
MAIS LES VENTS SONT MAINTENANT DE L'ORDRE DE 25KT PRES DU CENTRE.
LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE S'EST AMELIOREE AVEC LE RETOUR DU JOUR,
CONFIRMEE PAR LES DONNEES GPM DE 0317UTC.
TANT QU'UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES POURRA ETRE OBSERVEE, LE
SYSTEME VA ETRE SUIVI PAR LE CMRS AFIN D'ALERTER LES PAYS TRAVERSES
DES DANGERS ENCOURUS.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT, FREDDY SOUS L'EFFET DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST PUIS DU RENFORCEMENT DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-OUEST,
FREDDY DEVRAIT INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE AU NORD-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A
LUNDI, EN S'ENFONCANT DANS LES TERRES AFRICAINES TOUT EN SE COMBLANT
DURABLEMENT.

LE VORTEX DEVRAIT AINSI SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT EN COURS DE
WEEK-END POUR SE DISSIPER EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LES
TERRES DU ZIMBABWE.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H, PLUIES INTENSES ENTRE BEIRA ET
INHAMBANE, GAGNANT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES (PROVINCES DE GAZA / SUD DE
MANICA / SUD DE SOFALA) AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 200 MM. CES
VALEURS PEUVENT LOCALEMENT ATTEINDRE LES 300-350 MM, A LA FRONTIERE
ENTRE LE ZIMBABWE ET LE MOZAMBIQUE. RISQUE IMPORTANT D'INONDATIONS ET
DE GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
- ZIMBABWE:
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD-EST DU PAYS, AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES
200 MM, POUVANT LOCALEMENT ATTEINDRE LES 300-350 MM, A LA FRONTIERE
AVEC LE MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250618
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 33.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/02/28 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 30.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FREDDY IS CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST INLAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SQUALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED BUT
WINDS ARE NOW AROUND 25KT NEAR THE CENTER.
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER HAS IMPROVED WITH THE RETURN OF DAYLIGHT,
CONFIRMED BY THE GPM DATA OF 0317UTC.
AS LONG AS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN BE OBSERVED, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE MONITORED BY THE CMRS IN ORDER TO WARN THE COUNTRIES CROSSED OF
THE DANGERS INVOLVED.

NO CHANGE, FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD, GUIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PASSAGE OF A UPPER TROUGH IN
THE SOUTH-WEST THEN OF THE REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE
SOUTH-WEST, FREDDY SHOULD CURVE ITS MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTH-WEST
UNTIL MONDAY, BY GOING INTO THE AFRICAN LANDS WHILE FILLING UP
DURABLY.

THE VORTEX SHOULD BE FILLED PROGRESSIVELY FROM THIS WEEKEND TO
DISSIPATE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ON ZIMBABWE.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, INTENSE RAINS BETWEEN BEIRA AND
INHAMBANE, REACHING THE INTERIOR (PROVINCES OF GAZA / SOUTH OF MANICA
/ SOUTH OF SOFALA) WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 200 MM. THESE VALUES
MAY LOCALLY REACH 300-350 MM, ON THE BORDER BETWEEN ZIMBABWE AND
MOZAMBIQUE. SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES.
- ZIMBABWE:
* INTENSE RAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COUNTRY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 200 MM, POSSIBLY REACHING 300-350 MM LOCALLY, AT THE BORDER
WITH MOZAMBIQUE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 242356
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 43/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 34.0 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 32.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 29.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

FREDDY POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST SUR LES TERRES
SUR MOZAMBIQUE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST ESSENTIELLEMENT LOCALISE
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DU SYSTEME EN PRESENTANT DE FORTES
PRECIPITATIONS. DES RAFALES SOUS GRAIN SONT ENCORE ATTENDUES MAIS LES
VENTS SONT MAINTENANT DE L'ORDRE DE 30KT PRES DU CENTRE. LA
LOCALSIATION EST ASSEZ DELICATE JUSTIFIANT UNE INCERTITUDE ASSEZ
GRANDE A L'ANALYSE. TANT QU'UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES POURRA
ETRE OBSERVEE, LE SYSTEME VA ETRE SUIVI PAR LE CMRS AFIN D'ALERTER
LES PAYS TRAVERSER DES DANGERS ENCOURUS.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT, FREDDY DEVRAIT CONTINUER VERS L'OUEST, GUIDE PAR
LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE AU SUD, JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END. PUIS
SOUS L'EFFET DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD-OUEST PUIS DU RENFORCEMENT
DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-OUEST, FREDDY DEVRAIT INCURVER SA
TRAJECTOIRE AU NORD-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A LUNDI, EN S'ENFONCANT DANS LES
TERRES AFRICAINES TOUT EN SE COMBLANT DURABLEMENT.

LE VORTEX DEVRAIT AINSI SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT EN COURS DE
WEEK-END POUR SE DISSIPER EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LES
TERRES DU ZIMBABWE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H, PLUIES INTENSES ENTRE BEIRA ET
INHAMBANE, GAGNANT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES (PROVINCES DE GAZA / SUD DE
MANICA / SUD DE SOFALA) AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 200 A 300 MM.
CES VALEURS PEUVENT LOCALEMENT ATTEINDRE LES 400 MM, A LA FRONTIERE
ENTRE LE ZIMBABWE ET LE MOZAMBIQUE. RISQUE IMPORTANT D'INONDATIONS ET
DE GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
- ZIMBABWE:
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD-EST DU PAYS, AVEC DES CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE
200 A 400 MM EN 72H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 242356
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 34.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 32.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 29.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FREDDY CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK OVER MOZAMBIQUE. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM
WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION. SQUALL GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED BUT WINDS
ARE NOW AROUND 30KT NEAR THE CENTER. THE LOCALIZATION IS RATHER
DELICATE JUSTIFYING A RATHER LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ANALYSIS. AS
LONG AS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN BE OBSERVED, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MONITORED BY THE RMSC IN ORDER TO ALERT THE COUNTRIES CROSSING THE
SYSTEM OF THE DANGERS INVOLVED.

NO CHANGE, FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD, GUIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PASSAGE OF A UPPER TROUGH IN
THE SOUTH-WEST THEN OF THE REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE
SOUTH-WEST, FREDDY SHOULD CURVE ITS MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTH-WEST
UNTIL MONDAY, BY GOING INTO THE AFRICAN LANDS WHILE FILLING UP
DURABLY.

THE VORTEX SHOULD BE FILLED PROGRESSIVELY FROM THIS WEEKEND TO
DISSIPATE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ON ZIMBABWE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, INTENSE RAINS BETWEEN BEIRA AND
INHAMBANE, REACHING THE INTERIOR (PROVINCES OF GAZA / SOUTH OF MANICA
/ SOUTH OF SOFALA) WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 200 TO 300 MM. THESE
VALUES MAY LOCALLY REACH 400 MM, ON THE BORDER BETWEEN ZIMBABWE AND
MOZAMBIQUE. SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES.
- ZIMBABWE:
* INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COUNTRY, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 200 TO 400 MM IN 72 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241847
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 42/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 34.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 32.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 32.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 29.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

FREDDY POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST SUR LES TERRES
SUR MOZAMBIQUE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST ESSENTIELLEMENT LOCALISE
DANS LA QUADRANT SUD-EST DU SYSTEME EN PRESENTANT DE FORTES
PRECIPITATIONS ET ORAGES. DES RAFALES SOUS GRAIN SONT ENCORE
ATTENDUES MAIS LES VENTS FAIBLISSENT RAPIDEMENT D'APRES LES
OBSERVATIONS SUR TERRE. ON ESTIME QUE LES VENTS MOYENS LES PLUS FORTS
SONT DE L'ORDRE DE 35KT. TANT QU'UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES
POURRA ETRE OBSERVEE, LE SYSTEME VA ETRE SUIVI PAR LE CMRS AFIN
D'ALERTER LES PAYS TRAVERSER DES DANGERS ENCOURUS.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT, FREDDY DEVRAIT CONTINUER VERS L'OUEST, GUIDE PAR
LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE AU SUD, JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END. PUIS
SOUS L'EFFET DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD-OUEST PUIS DU RENFORCEMENT
DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-OUEST, FREDDY DEVRAIT INCURVER SA
TRAJECTOIRE AU NORD-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A LUNDI, EN S'ENFONCANT DANS LES
TERRES AFRICAINES TOUT EN SE COMBLANT DURABLEMENT.

DES MAINTENANT FREDDY DEVRAIT CONNAITRE UNE PERIODE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
NOTABLE ET CROISSANTE LORS DE SON PASSAGE SUR TERRE. LE VORTEX
DEVRAIT AINSI SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT DES CE WEEK-END POUR SE
DISSIPER EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE SUR LES TERRES DU ZIMBABWE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT FAIBLISSANT EN COURS DE NUIT, SUR LA
FRANGE MARITIME DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE.
* MER TRES FORTE (4-6M) FAIBLISSANT EN COURS DE NUIT, SUR LA FRANGE
MARITIME DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE.
* AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72H, PLUIES INTENSES ENTRE BEIRA ET
INHAMBANE, GAGNANT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES (PROVINCES DE GAZA / SUD DE
MANICA / SUD DE SOFALA) AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 200 A 300 MM.
CES VALEURS PEUVENT LOCALEMENT ATTEINDRE LES 400 MM, A LA FRONTIERE
ENTRE LE ZIMBABWE ET LE MOZAMBIQUE. RISQUE IMPORTANT D'INONDATIONS ET
DE GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
- ZIMBABWE:
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD-EST DU PAYS, AVEC DES CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE
200 A 400 MM EN 72H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241847
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 34.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 32.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 32.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 29.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

FREDDY CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK OVER MOZAMBIQUE. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS. SQUALLS ARE STILL EXPECTED BUT
WINDS ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. THE STRONGEST
AVERAGE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 35KT. AS LONG AS A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CAN BE OBSERVED, THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED BY THE RSMC
IN ORDER TO ALERT THE COUNTRIES CROSSING IT OF THE DANGERS INVOLVED.

NO CHANGE, FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD, GUIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. THEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PASSAGE OF A UPPER TROUGH IN
THE SOUTH-WEST THEN OF THE REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE
SOUTH-WEST, FREDDY SHOULD CURVE ITS MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTH-WEST
UNTIL MONDAY, BY GOING INTO THE AFRICAN LANDS WHILE FILLING UP
DURABLY.

FROM NOW FREDDY SHOULD KNOW A PERIOD OF NOTABLE AND INCREASING
WEAKENING, DURING ITS PASSAGE ON LAND. THE MINIMUM OF PRESSURE LINKED
TO THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FILLED PROGRESSIVELY FROM THIS WEEKEND TO
DISSIPATE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ON ZIMBABWE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE FORCE WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE NIGHT, ON THE MARITIME COAST
OF THE PROVINCE OF INHAMBANE.
* VERY ROUGH SEA (4-6M) WEAKENING DURING THE NIGHT, ON THE MARITIME
COAST OF THE PROVINCE OF INHAMBANE.
* DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, INTENSE RAINS BETWEEN BEIRA AND
INHAMBANE, REACHING THE INTERIOR (PROVINCES OF GAZA / SOUTH OF MANICA
/ SOUTH OF SOFALA) WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 200 TO 300 MM. THESE
VALUES MAY LOCALLY REACH 400 MM, ON THE BORDER BETWEEN ZIMBABWE AND
MOZAMBIQUE. SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES.
- ZIMBABWE:
* INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COUNTRY, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 200 TO 400 MM IN 72 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 241802
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 042/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 34.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 160
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 06 UTC:
22.7 S / 33.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 18 UTC:
22.1 S / 32.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241252
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 41/7/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 35.5 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 55

24H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 32.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/02/2023 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 27.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

FREDDY A PURSUIVI SA DIRECTION EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST, EN ACCUSANT
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT NOTABLE A L'APPROCHE DES CA TES MOZAMBICAINES.
C'EST DONC AU STADE DE TEMPA TE TROPICALE MODEREE QUE FREDDY A
ATTERRI, AU SUD IMMEDIAT DE LA VILLE DE VILANCULOS (PROVINCE
D'INHAMBANE) A 12 UTC. A L'INSTAR DE CE MATIN, LA CONVECTION S'EST
FAITE PLUS RARE ET DISPERSEE, ET LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT CONTINUE A
SE RECHAUFFER. EN L'ABSENCE DE D'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE RA CENTE, IL EST
DIFFICILE D'ESTIMER LA SOLIDITE DU COEUR INTERNE DU SYSTEME, AINSI
QUE LA LOCALISATION PRECISE DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES. AU VU DES
RECENTS ELEMENTS MIS EN AVANT CI-AVANT, ET DE LA VITESSE DU VENT
FOURNIE PAR LA STATION DE VILANCULOS, PRESENTANT UN VENT MOYEN DE
30KT A 12 UTC DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST
ESTIMEE A 45KT.

FREDDY DEVRAIT CONTINUER VERS L'OUEST, GUIDE PAR LA PRESENCE D'UNE
DORSALE AU SUD, JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE WEEK-END. PUIS SOUS L'EFFET DU
PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD-OUEST PUIS DU RENFORCEMENT DE HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD-OUEST, FREDDY DEVRAIT INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE AU
NORD-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A LUNDI, EN S'ENFONCANT DANS LES TERRES
AFRICAINES TOUT EN SE COMBLANT DURABLEMENT.

DES MAINTENANT FREDDY DEVRAIT CONNAITRE UNE PERIODE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
NOTABLE ET CROISSANTE, LORS DE SON PASSAGE SUR TERRE. LE MINIMUM DE
PESSION LIE AU SYSTEME DEVRAIT AINSI SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT DES
CE WEEK-END POUR SE DISSIPER EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT JUSQU'EN SOIREE, SUR LA FRANGE
MARITIME DE LA PROVINCE DE'INHAMBANE.
* MER TRES FORTE (4-6M) JUSQU'EN SOIREE, SUR LA FRANGE MARITIME DE
LA PROVINCE DE'INHAMBANE.
* PLUIES INTENSES ENTRE BEIRA ET INHAMBANE, GAGNANT L'INTERIEUR DES
TERRES (PROVINCES DE GAZA / SUD DE MANICA / SUD DE SOFALA) AVEC DES
CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 200 A 300 MM ET LOCALEMENT 500 MM EN 72H, A L
AFRONTIERE ENTRE LE ZIMBABWE ET LE MOZAMBIQUE. RISQUE IMPORTANT
D'INONDATIONS ET DE GLISSEMENTS DE TERRAIN.
- ZIMBABWE:
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD-EST DU PAYS, AVEC DES CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE
400 A 500 MM EN 72H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241252
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/7/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 35.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/25 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55

24H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 32.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/28 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 27.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

FREDDY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD, WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. FREDDY LANDED AS A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM, IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE CITY OF VILANCULOS
(INHAMBANE PROVINCE) AT 12 UTC. LIKE THIS MORNING, THE CONVECTION
BECAME MORE SPARSE AND SCATTERED, AND THE CLOUD TOPS CONTINUED TO
WARM UP. IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES, IT IS DIFFICULT
TO ESTIMATE THE STRENGTH OF THE INNER CORE O, AS WELL AS THE PRECISE
LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THESE RECENT ELEMENTS PUT
FORWARD ABOVE, AND OF THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED PROVIDED BY THE STATION
OF VILANCULOS, PRESENTING AN AVERAGE WIND OF 30KT AT 12 UTC FROM
NORTH-WEST, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AT 45KT.

FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD, GUIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THEN
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PASSAGE OF A UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST
THEN OF THE REINFORCEMENT OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE SOUTH-WEST,
FREDDY SHOULD CURVE ITS MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTH-WEST UNTIL
MONDAY, BY GOING INTO THE AFRICAN LANDS WHILE FILLING UP DURABLY.

FROM NOW FREDDY SHOULD KNOW A PERIOD OF NOTABLE AND INCREASING
WEAKENING, DURING ITS PASSAGE ON LAND. THE MINIMUM OF PRESSURE LINKED
TO THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FILLED PROGRESSIVELY FROM THIS WEEKEND TO
DISSIPATE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MOZAMBIQUE :
* GALE FORCE WINDS UNTIL EVENING, ON THE MARITIME COAST OF THE
PROVINCE OF 'INHAMBANE.
* VERY ROUGH SEA (4-6M) UNTIL EVENING, ON THE MARITIME COAST OF THE
PROVINCE OF 'INHAMBANE.
* INTENSE RAINFALL BETWEEN BEIRA AND INHAMBANE, SPREADING INLAND
(GAZA PROVINCE / SOUTH MANICA / SOUTH SOFALA) WITH CUMULATIVE
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 200 TO 300 MM AND LOCALLY 500 MM IN 72H, IN THE
BORDER BETWEEN ZIMBABWE AND MOZAMBIQUE. SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLOODS
AND LANDSLIDES.
- ZIMBABWE:
* INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COUNTRY, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 400 TO 500 MM IN 72 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 241226
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 041/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 35.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 00 UTC:
22.4 S / 33.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 12 UTC:
22.7 S / 32.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240728
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 40/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 36.5 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 75

24H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 32.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 85

48H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 85

60H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 31.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE FREDDY S'EST DEGRADEE AU COURS DES SIX
DERNIERES HEURES, A L'APPROCHE DES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES. EN EFFET, LA
BANDE INCURVEE EN COURS DE CONSTITUTION DEPUIS 00Z, A PERDU
PROGRESSIVEMENT EN TERMES DE DEFINITION, AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI
SE SONT RAPIDEMENT RECHAUFFES. LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EST RESTE
AU SUD DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE
0149Z PRESENTE UN OEIL ASSEZ LARGE AVEC UN DEFAUT MAJEUR DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD. PAR RAPPORT A LA TRAJECTOIRE PRECEDENTE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE 06Z PRESENTE UN ATTERRISSAGE LEGEREMENT PLUS AU SUD,
MAIS DANS UN TIMING EQUIVALENT ET UNE INTENSITE AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE.

PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD, FREDDY POURSUIVRE
SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST JUSQU'A UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE CE VENDREDI EN MILIEU DE JOURNEE. A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END,
SOUS L'EFFET DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET DE L'EFFET
CONTRADICTOIRE DES DEUX DORSALES RESIDUELLES A L'EST ET A L'OUEST, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR PUIS DERIVER LENTEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST
DANS LES TERRES D'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, TOUT EN SE COMBLANT LENTEMENT.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES (BON POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE) DEVRAIENT
PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE SE MAINTENIR AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPA TE
TROPICALE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. L'INTENSIFICATION
PEINE A SE POURSUIVRE, SANS DOUTE EN RAISON DE LA LARGEUR CONSTATE DU
COEUR CONVECTIF. LE SYSTEME VA PAR LA SUITE SA AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT
SUR LES TERRES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :
- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI EN MI-JOURNEE SUR LA
PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE A PROXIMITE SUD DE VILANCULOS.
* VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE VERS CETTE FIN DE DE MATINEE DE VENDREDI
ET LE MILIEU D'APRES-MIDI.
* MER TRES GROSSE DEVENANT GROSSE (6-9 METRES) A PROXIMITE DE LA
ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE ENTRE CE MATIN ET LE DEBUT D'APRES-MIDI. SURCOTE
POUVANT AVOISINER LES 50CM PRES DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD DE BEIRA NOTAMMENT DANS LA PROVINCE
D'INHAMBANE, GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES (PROVINCE DE
GAZA) AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 200 A 300 MM ET LOCALEMENT 400 MM
EN 72H. RISQUE IMPORTANT D'INONDATIONS.
- SUD/SUD-EST DU ZIMBABWE (VOIRE EXTREME NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU
SUD) : A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, PLUIES INTENSES DEPASSANT 100-200 MM EN
24H ET LOCALEMENT 300 MM EN 48H, POUVANT CAUSER D'IMPORTANTES
INONDATIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240728
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 36.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/24 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75

24H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 32.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 85

48H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 85

60H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 31.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

THE FREDDY CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, AS
IT APPROACHES THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. INDEED, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN
IN FORMATION SINCE 00Z, HAS PROGRESSIVELY LOST IN DEFINITION, WITH
CLOUDY TOPS THAT HAVE RAPIDLY WARMED UP. THE CENTER OF THE LLC
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE SSMIS MICRO-ONDE
IMAGE OF 0149Z PRESENTS A WIDE EYE WITH A MAJOR BREAK IN THE NORTHERN
HALF-CIRCLE. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, THE 06Z TRACK SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY LANDING, BUT WITH AN EQUIVALENT TIMING AND
INTENSITY AT THE SEVERE STORM STAGE.

DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, FREDDY KEEPS TRACKING
WESTWARDS UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY AROUND
NOON. FROM THIS WEEKEND, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND THE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS FROM TWO REMNANT RIDGES EAST AND
WEST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD
INLAND OF SOUTHERN AFRICA WHILE SLOWLY FILLING IN.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE (GOOD OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, HUMID ENVIRONMENT, LOW SHEAR) SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF AT THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE ITS
LANDING ON MOZAMBIQUE. THE INTENSIFICATION IS STRUGGLING TO CONTINUE,
PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE WIDTH OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND FROM FRIDAY EVENING.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MOZAMBIQUE: LANDFALL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AROUND
NOON ON THE INHAMBANE PROVINCE, SOUTH VILANCULOS.
* ARRIVAL OF STORM FORCE WINDS LATE MORNINGFRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS LIKELY DURING FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
* HEAVY SEAS (6 TO 9 METERS) NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND NOON. STORM SURGE COULD REACH AROUND 50 CM NEAR THE
LANDFALL AREA.
* INTENSE RAINFALL SOUTH OF BEIRA, NOTABLY IN INHAMBANE PROVINCE,
RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND (GAZA PROVINCE) WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING
200 TO 300 MM AND LOCALLY 400 MM IN 72H. SEVERE FLOODING VERY LIKELY.
- SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN ZIMBABWE (AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AFRICA) : INTENSE RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY EXCEEDING 100-200 MM
IN 24H AND LOCALLY 300 MM IN 48H, WHICH MAY CAUSE SEVERE FLOODING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240648
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 040/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 36.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
22.6 S / 34.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 06 UTC:
22.7 S / 33.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240118
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 39/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 37.5 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 25/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 32.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 0

48H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 32.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 30.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 28.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 01/03/2023 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 27.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

LA BANDE INCURVEE A CONTINUE A S'ENROULER DE PLUS EN PLUS AUTOUR DU
CENTRE AVEC UNE CONVECTION QUI RESTE MARQUEE. UNE PASSE SMAP A 1522Z
A INDIQUE DES VENTS A 58KT COHERENTS AVEC LES OBSERVATIONS DE SURFACE
DE LA STATION DE L'ILE D'EUROPA UN PEU PLUS TOT. L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENUE A 55KT A 00UTC. LE SYSTEME GARDE UN COEUR ASSEZ LARGE QUI
REND POUR L'INSTANT L'INTENSIFICATION ASSEZ LENTE. SON DEPLACEMENT SE
FAIT UN PEU PLUS AU SUD ET UN PEU PLUS LENTEMENT QU'INITIALEMENT
PREVU.

PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD, FREDDY POURSUIVRE
SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST JUSQU'A UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE CE VENDREDI EN MILIEU DE JOURNEE. A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END,
SOUS L'EFFET DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET DE L'EFFET
CONTRADICTOIRE DES DEUX DORSALES RESIDUELLES A L'EST ET A L'OUEST, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR PUIS DERIVER LENTEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST
DANS LES TERRES D'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, TOUT EN SE COMBLANT LENTEMENT.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE) DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE AU
SYSTEME D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE, D'AUTANT QUE SON MOUVEMENT A ETE
LEGEREMENT RETARDE, CE QUI LUI ACCORDE QUELQUES HEURES
SUPPLEMENTAIRES SUR LES EAUX CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA
VITESSE D'INTENSIFICATION RESTE MALGRE TOUT EN PARTIE INCERTAINE ET
DEPENDANTE DE LA CONTRACTION PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE DU COEUR CONVECTIF
INITIALEMENT ASSEZ LARGE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE SA
AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR LES TERRES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI EN MI-JOURNEE SUR LE
NORD-EST DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE A PROXIMITE DE VILANCULOS.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN FIN DE NUIT DE JEUDI A
VENDREDI. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN POSSIBLES ENTRE LA FIN DE MATINEE DE
VENDREDI ET LE MILIEU D'APRES-MIDI.
* MER GROSSE (6-9 METRES) A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE
ENTRE VENDREDI MATIN ET MIDI. SURCOTE POUVANT AVOISINER 1M PRES DE LA
ATTERRISSAGE.
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD DE BEIRA NOTAMMENT DANS LA PROVINCE
D'INHAMBANE, GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES (PROVINCE DE
GAZA) AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 200 A 300 MM ET LOCALEMENT 400 MM
EN 72H. RISQUE IMPORTANT D'INONDATIONS.

- SUD/SUD-EST DU ZIMBABWE (VOIRE EXTREME NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU
SUD) : A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, PLUIES INTENSES DEPASSANT 100-200 MM EN
24H ET LOCALEMENT 300 MM EN 48H, POUVANT CAUSER D'IMPORTANTES
INONDATIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240118
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 37.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/24 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/25 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 32.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 0

48H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 32.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 30.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 28.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2023/03/01 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 27.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

FREDDY'S CURVED BAND HAS CONTINUED TO WRAP MORE AND MORE AROUND THE
STORM'S CENTER WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION. A 1522Z SMAP PASS INDICATED
WINDS UP TO 58KT, PERFECTLY IN LINE WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM EUROPA ISLAND A BIT EARLIER. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 55KT A
00UTC. THE SYSTEM HAS A QUITE BROAD CENTRAL CORE, WHICH HAS SLOWED
ITS INTENSIFICATION UP TO NOW. ITS OBSERVED TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH AND A BIT SLOWER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST.

DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, FREDDY KEEPS TRACKING
WESTWARDS UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY AROUND
NOON. FROM THIS WEEKEND, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
AND THE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS FROM TWO REMNANT RIDGES EAST AND
WEST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD
INLAND OF SOUTHERN AFRICA WHILE SLOWLY FILLING IN.

UNDER CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL,
MOIST ENVIRONMENT, LOW WIND SHEAR), THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE,
ESPECIALLY SINCE ITS MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DELAYED, WHICH GIVES
IT A FEW EXTRA HOURS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL'S WARM WATERS. THE
SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION IS STILL PARTLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON THE
MORE OR LESS RAPID CONTRACTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE, WHICH IS
INITIALLY QUITE BROAD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
INLAND FROM FRIDAY EVENING.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MOZAMBIQUE: LANDFALL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AROUND
NOON ON THE NORTH-EAST OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE, NEAR VILANCULOS.
* ARRIVAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE END OF NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY DURING FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON.
* HEAVY SEAS (6 TO 9 METERS) NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND NOON. STORM SURGE COULD REACH AROUND 1 METER NEAR THE
LANDFALL AREA.
* INTENSE RAINFALL SOUTH OF BEIRA, NOTABLY IN INHAMBANE PROVINCE,
RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND (GAZA PROVINCE) WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING
200 TO 300 MM AND LOCALLY 400 MM IN 72H. SEVERE FLOODING VERY LIKELY.

- SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN ZIMBABWE (AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AFRICA) : INTENSE RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY EXCEEDING 100-200 MM
IN 24H AND LOCALLY 300 MM IN 48H, WHICH MAY CAUSE SEVERE FLOODING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240108
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 37.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 12 UTC:
22.1 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 00 UTC:
22.3 S / 33.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 240059
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: 7 (FREDDY) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: 22.2 S / 37.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: UNDETERMINED

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.


STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 12 UTC:
22.1 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/25 AT 00 UTC:
22.3 S / 33.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FREDDY
55KT
986HPA
MOVEMENT W 11KT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231941
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 38/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 38.7 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 24/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 140 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 31.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 30.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 28.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 28/02/2023 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 27.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONTINUE A SE RENFORCER AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES, AVEC UNE BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT DE PLUS EN PLUS
AUTOUR DU CENTRE. SUR LE FLANC ARRIERE DU SYSTEME, LA STATION
METEOROLOGIQUE DE L'ILE D'EUROPA A MESURE DES VENTS MOYENS VOISINS DE
55 A 58 KT ENTRE 12 ET 15 UTC SOUS CETTE INTENSE BANDE CONVECTIVE,
AVEC UNE RAFALE JUSQU'A 147 KM/H ENTRE 12 ET 13UTC. L'INTENSITE DE
FREDDY EST DONC ESTIMEE A 55KT A 18UTC, AU-DESSUS DE L'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE.

PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD PUIS SE RENFORCANT
COTE SUD-OUEST, FREDDY DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI VERS 09UTC. A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, SOUS L'EFFET
DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET DE L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DES DEUX
DORSALES RESIDUELLES A L'EST ET A L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RALENTIR PUIS DERIVER LENTEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST DANS LES TERRES
D'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, TOUT EN SE COMBLANT LENTEMENT.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES (BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE) DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE AU
SYSTEME D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE, D'AUTANT QUE SON MOUVEMENT A ETE
LEGEREMENT RETARDE, CE QUI LUI ACCORDE QUELQUES HEURES
SUPPLEMENTAIRES SUR LES EAUX CHAUDES DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA
VITESSE D'INTENSIFICATION RESTE MALGRE TOUT EN PARTIE INCERTAINE ET
DEPENDANTE DE LA CONTRACTION PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE DU COEUR CONVECTIF
INITIALEMENT ASSEZ LARGE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE SA
AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR LES TERRES A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI EN FIN DE MATINEE ET
MI-JOURNEE SUR LE NORD-EST DE LA PROVINCE D'INHAMBANE A PROXIMITE DE
VILANCULOS.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT EN FIN DE NUIT DE JEUDI A
VENDREDI. VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN POSSIBLES ENTRE LA MATINEE DE
VENDREDI ET LE DEBUT D'APRES-MIDI.
* MER GROSSE (6-9 METRES) A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE
ENTRE VENDREDI MATIN ET MIDI. SURCOTE POUVANT AVOISINER 1M PRES DE LA
ATTERRISSAGE.
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD DE BEIRA NOTAMMENT DANS LA PROVINCE
D'INHAMBANE, GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES (PROVINCE DE
GAZA) AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 200 A 300 MM ET LOCALEMENT 400 MM
EN 72H. RISQUE IMPORTANT D'INONDATIONS.

- SUD/SUD-EST DU ZIMBABWE (VOIRE EXTREME NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU
SUD) : A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, PLUIES INTENSES DEPASSANT 100-200 MM EN
24H ET LOCALEMENT 300 MM EN 48H, POUVANT CAUSER D'IMPORTANTES
INONDATIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231941
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 38.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/24 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2023/02/24 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 31.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 30.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 28.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2023/02/28 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 27.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE LAST
HOURS, WITH AN INTENSE CURVED BAND INCREASINGLY WRAPPING AROUND THE
STORM'S CENTER. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, THE METEOROLOGICAL
STATION OF EUROPA ISLAND HAS MEASURED AVERAGE WINDS OF 55 TO 58 KT
BETWEEN 12 AND 15 UTC UNDER THIS INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND, WITH A GUST
UP TO 147 KM/H BETWEEN 12 AND 13UTC. THE INTENSITY OF FREDDY IS THUS
ESTIMATED AT 55KT AT 18UTC, ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS.

DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH WHICH SHOULD THEN
STRENGTHEN TO ITS SOUTHWEST, FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE
ON FRIDAY AROUND 09UTC. FROM THIS WEEKEND, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS FROM TWO
REMNANT RIDGES EAST AND WEST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD INLAND OF SOUTHERN AFRICA WHILE SLOWLY
FILLING IN.

UNDER CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL,
MOIST ENVIRONMENT, LOW WIND SHEAR), THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE,
ESPECIALLY SINCE ITS MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DELAYED, WHICH GIVES
IT A FEW EXTRA HOURS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL'S WARM WATERS. THE
SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION IS STILL PARTLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON THE
MORE OR LESS RAPID CONTRACTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE, WHICH IS
INITIALLY QUITE BROAD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
INLAND FROM FRIDAY EVENING.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MOZAMBIQUE: LANDFALL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND AROUND
NOON ON THE NORTH-EAST OF INHAMBANE PROVINCE, NEAR VILANCULOS.
* ARRIVAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE END OF NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY DURING FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL
EARLY AFTERNOON.
* HEAVY SEAS (6 TO 9 METERS) NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND NOON. STORM SURGE COULD REACH AROUND 1 METER NEAR THE
LANDFALL AREA.
* INTENSE RAINFALL SOUTH OF BEIRA, NOTABLY IN INHAMBANE PROVINCE,
RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND (GAZA PROVINCE) WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING
200 TO 300 MM AND LOCALLY 400 MM IN 72H. SEVERE FLOODING VERY LIKELY.

- SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN ZIMBABWE (AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AFRICA) : INTENSE RAINFALL FROM SATURDAY EXCEEDING 100-200 MM
IN 24H AND LOCALLY 300 MM IN 48H, WHICH MAY CAUSE SEVERE FLOODING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 231828
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 038/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 38.7 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 180
NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
21.9 S / 36.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
22.0 S / 34.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230223131936
2023022312 11S FREDDY 042 02 250 09 SATL 030
T000 225S 0394E 050 R050 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 222S 0370E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 222S 0348E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 224S 0331E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 042
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 042
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 39.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 39.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.2S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2S 34.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.4S 33.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 38.8E.
23FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1123020412 127S1168E 20
1123020418 122S1173E 20
1123020500 118S1178E 25
1123020506 115S1184E 25
1123020512 114S1189E 25
1123020518 116S1193E 25
1123020600 120S1193E 30
1123020606 123S1191E 35
1123020612 127S1189E 45
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022206 217S 450E 45
1123022212 221S 434E 25
1123022218 220S 424E 30
1123022300 221S 411E 30
1123022306 222S 403E 35
1123022312 225S 394E 50
1123022312 225S 394E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 042
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 39.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 39.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.2S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2S 34.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.4S 33.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 38.8E.
23FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231224
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/7/20222023
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.6 S / 39.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95

24H: 24/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 25/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 55 NO: 65

48H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 31.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 30.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 28.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST RENFORCEE AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES,
NOTAMMENT DANS UN LARGE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-EST, S'ORGANISANT EN BANDE
INCURVEE. CETTE AMELIORATION EST CONFIRMEE PAR LE PASS AMSR2 DE
1115UTC. L'INTENSITE A ETE REVU A LA HAUSSE AVEC LES DERNIERES
DONNEES SMAP DE 0314UTC DE 44KT, ET ESTIMEE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE.

PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD PUIS SE RENFORCANT
COTE SUD-OUEST, FREDDY DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI A LA MI-JOURNEE. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES A
DIMINUE ET LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE DEVRAIT SE SITUER ENTRE INHAMBANE
ET BEIRA, PROBABLEMENT VERS VILANCULOS.
A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, SOUS L'EFFET DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD
ET DE L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DES DEUX DORSALES RESIDUELLES A L'EST ET
A L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR PUIS DERIVER LENTEMENT VERS LE
NORD-OUEST DANS LES TERRES D'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, TOUT EN SE COMBLANT
LENTEMENT.

LE COEUR CENTRAL DE FREDDY EST EN TRAIN DE SE RESTRUCTURER, ANNONCANT
UNE REINTENSIFICATION SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DANS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT FAVORABLES : UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UN
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE ET UN CISAILLEMENT RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE. IL
DEVRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE VOIRE LE
STEDE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE
MOZAMBIQUE. LA VITESSE D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME RESTE MALGRE TOUT
EN PARTIE INCERTAINE ET DEPENDRA DE LA VITESSE DE RECONSTITUTION DU
COEUR. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE SA AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR
LES TERRES A PARTIR DE LA JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI EN FIN DE MATINEE
PROBABLEMENT ENTRE BEIRA ET INHAMBANE, VERS VILANCULOS.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
A LA COTE.
* MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (JUSQU'A 5-7M) A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI ET VENDREDI MATIN.
SURCOTE POUVANT ATTEINDRE 50CM A 1M PRES DE LA ATTERRISSAGE.
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD DE BEIRA NOTAMMENT DANS LA PROVINCE
D'INHAMBANE, GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES (PROVINCE DE
GAZA) AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 200 A 300 MM ET LOCALEMENT LES
400 MM EN 72H.

- NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD ET SURTOYUT LE SUD ZIMBABWE : A PARTIR
DE SAMEDI, RISQUE DE PLUIES INTENSES (SUPERIEURES A 50-100 MM EN 24H)
POUVANT CAUSER DES INONDATIONS SUR LES REGIONS LIMITROPHES DE LA
PROVINCE DE GAZA. DETAILS ENCORE INCERTAINS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/7/20222023
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 39.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/24 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95

24H: 2023/02/24 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2023/02/25 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 55 NW: 65

48H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 31.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 30.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 28.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST HOURS, ESPECIALLY
IN A LARGE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE, ORGANIZING ITSELF IN A CURVED BAND.
THIS IMPROVEMENT IS CONFIRMED BY THE AMSR2 PASS OF 1115UTC. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARDS WITH THE LAST SMAP DATA OF 0314UTC
OF 44KT, AND ESTIMATED AT THE STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH WHICH SHOULD THEN
STRENGTHEN TO ITS SOUTHWEST, FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD AND
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL DISPERSION HAS DECREASED AND THE
LANDFALL AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA, PROBABLY NEAR
VILANKULO. FROM THIS WEEKEND, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH AND THE CONTRADICTORY EFFECT OF THE TWO REMNANT RIDGES EAST AND
WEST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH-WESTWARD INLAND OF SOUTHERN AFRICA WHILE SLOWLY FILLING IN.

FREDDY'S INNER CORE IS REBUILDING, SUGGESTING REINTENSIFICATION OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN RATHER CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS :
GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR.
IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
LANDFALLING OVER MOZAMBIQUE. ACCORDING TO AVAILABLE MODELS, THE SPEED
OF INTENSIFICATION IS NEVERTHELESS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE SPEED OF THE INNER CORE REBUILDING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND FROM FRIDAY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MOZAMBIQUE: LANDING PLANNED ON FRIDAY LATE MORNING PROBABLY BETWEEN
BEIRA AND INHAMBANE, TOWARDS VILANCULOS.
* PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF THE GALE IN THE NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
AT THE COAST.
* VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS (UP TO 5-7M) NEAR THE LANDING AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SURGE COULD REACH 50CM TO 1M NEAR
THE LANDING ZONE.
* INTENSE RAINFALL SOUTH OF BEIRA, NOTABLY IN INHAMBANE PROVINCE,
RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND (GAZA PROVINCE) WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING
200 TO 300 MM AND LOCALLY 400 MM IN 72H.

- NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA AND SOUTHERN ZIMBABWE : FROM SATURDAY,
RISK OF INTENSE RAINS (MORE THAN 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS) WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLOODING IN THE AREAS BORDERING GAZA PROVINCE. DETAILS STILL
UNCERTAIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 231212
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 39.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM AROUND THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 00 UTC:
21.9 S / 36.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 12 UTC:
21.9 S / 34.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL., AND LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230718
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/7/20222023
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.4 S / 40.2 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SO: 95 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 85

24H: 24/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 120 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 95 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 24/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 31.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 31.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 28.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 28/02/2023 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 27.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST RENFORCEE AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES,
NOTAMMENT DANS UN LARGE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES S'EST NETTEMENT AMELIOREE, COMME LE MONTRE LA PASS GPM DE
0332UTC, AINSI QUE LES DONNEES HY-2B DE 0230UTC QUI CONFIRMENT LE
STADE DE TTM 35KT.

PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD PUIS SE RENFORCANT
COTE SUD-OUEST, FREDDY DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI MATIN. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES A DIMINUE ET
LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE DEVRAIT SE SITUER ENTRE INHAMBANE ET BEIRA,
PROBABLEMENT VERS VILANCULOS.
A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, SOUS L'EFFET DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD
ET DE L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DES DEUX DORSALES RESIDUELLES A L'EST ET
A L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR PUIS DERIVER LENTEMENT VERS LE
NORD-OUEST DANS LES TERRES D'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, TOUT EN SE COMBLANT
LENTEMENT.

LE COEUR CENTRAL DE FREDDY EST EN TRAIN DE SE RESTRUCTURER, ANNONCANT
UNE REINTENSIFICATION SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DANS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT FAVORABLES : UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UN
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE ET UN CISAILLEMENT RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE. IL
DEVRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVANT
L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. LA VITESSE D'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME RESTE MALGRE TOUT EN PARTIE INCERTAINE ET DEPENDRA DE LA
VITESSE DE RECONSTITUTION DU COEUR. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE
SA AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR LES TERRES A PARTIR DE LA JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI MATIN PROBABLEMENT ENTRE
BEIRA ET INHAMBANE, VERS VILANCULOS.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
A LA COTE.
* MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (JUSQU'A 6-9M) A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI ET VENDREDI MATIN.
SURCOTE POUVANT ATTEINDRE 50CM A 1M PRES DE LA ATTERRISSAGE.
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD DE BEIRA NOTAMMENT DANS LA PROVINCE
D'INHAMBANE, GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES (PROVINCE DE
GAZA) AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 200 A 300 MM ET LOCALEMENT LES
400 MM EN 72H.

- NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD ET LE SUD ZIMBABWE : A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI, RISQUE DE PLUIES INTENSES (SUPERIEURES A 50-100 MM EN 24H)
POUVANT CAUSER DES INONDATIONS SUR LES REGIONS LIMITROPHES DE LA
PROVINCE DE GAZA. DETAILS ENCORE INCERTAINS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230718
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/7/20222023
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 40.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/23 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 85

24H: 2023/02/24 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/24 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 31.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 31.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 28.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/02/28 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 27.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE LAST HOURS, ESPECIALLY
IN A LARGE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS CLEARLY
IMPROVED, AS SHOWN BY THE GPM PASS OF 0332UTC, AS WELL AS THE HY-2B
DATA OF 0230UTC WHICH CONFIRM THE 35KT TTM STAGE.

DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH WHICH SHOULD THEN
STRENGTHEN TO ITS SOUTHWEST, FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD AND
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL DISPERSION HAS DECREASED AND THE
LANDFALL AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA, PROBABLY NEAR
VILANKULO. FROM THIS WEEKEND, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH AND THE CONTRADICTORY EFFECT OF THE TWO REMNANT RIDGES EAST AND
WEST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH-WESTWARD INLAND OF SOUTHERN AFRICA WHILE SLOWLY FILLING IN.

FREDDY'S INNER CORE IS REBUILDING, SUGGESTING REINTENSIFICATION OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN RATHER CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS :
GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR.
IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
LANDFALLING OVER MOZAMBIQUE. ACCORDING TO AVAILABLE MODELS, THE SPEED
OF INTENSIFICATION IS NEVERTHELESS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE SPEED OF THE INNER CORE REBUILDING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND FROM FRIDAY.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MOZAMBIQUE: LANDING PLANNED FRIDAY MORNING PROBABLY BETWEEN BEIRA
AND INHAMBANE, TOWARDS VILANCULOS.
* PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF THE GALE IN THE NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
AT THE COAST.
* VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS (UP TO 6-9M) NEAR THE LANDING AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SURGE COULD REACH 50CM TO 1M NEAR
THE LANDING ZONE.
* INTENSE RAINFALL SOUTH OF BEIRA, NOTABLY IN INHAMBANE PROVINCE,
RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND (GAZA PROVINCE) WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING
200 TO 300 MM AND LOCALLY 400 MM IN 72H.

- NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AFRICA AND SOUTHERN ZIMBABWE : FROM SATURDAY,
RISK OF INTENSE RAINS (MORE THAN 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS) WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLOODING IN THE AREAS BORDERING GAZA PROVINCE. DETAILS STILL
UNCERTAIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 230613
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FREDDY) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4 S / 40.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM AROUND THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 18 UTC:
22.1 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
21.8 S / 35.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230223013042
2023022300 11S FREDDY 041 02 265 12 SATL 060
T000 221S 0411E 030
T012 220S 0388E 040 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 217S 0365E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 218S 0344E 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 220S 0326E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 041
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 041
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 22.1S 41.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 41.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.0S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.7S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.8S 34.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.0S 32.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 40.5E.
23FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50
NM EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022206 217S 450E 45
1123022212 221S 434E 25
1123022218 220S 424E 30
1123022300 221S 411E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 041
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 22.1S 41.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 41.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.0S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.7S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.8S 34.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.0S 32.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 40.5E.
23FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50
NM EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ENALA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230057
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/7/20222023
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 41.3 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 95 NO: 0

24H: 24/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 24/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 25/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 29.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 28/02/2023 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 26.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.0+

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST RENFORCEE AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES,
NOTAMMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD, AUTOUR D'UNE VASTE ZONE DEVENTE
AU CENTRE. CELA EST CONFIRME PAR LES PASSES ASCAT DE 1922Z ET 1830Z
ET LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES QUI MONTRENT UNE CIRCULATION
ALLONGEE ET LARGE PROCHE DU CENTRE. EN LIEN AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE, IL EST DESORMAIS TRES PROBABLE QU'IL Y AIT DU
COUP DE VENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. EN CONSEQUENCE, FREDDY EST
ANALYSE COMME UNE ZONE PERTUBEE 35KT A 00Z.

PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD PUIS SE RENFORCANT
COTE SUD-OUEST, FREDDY DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST
PUIS OUEST-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI MATIN. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES A DIMINUE ET
LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE DEVRAIT SE SITUER ENTRE INHAMBANE ET BEIRA,
PROBABLEMENT VERS VILANCULOS. A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, SOUS L'EFFET
DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET DE L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DES DEUX
DORSALES RESIDUELLES A L'EST ET A L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RALENTIR PUIS DERIVER LENTEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST DANS LES TERRES
D'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, TOUT EN SE COMBLANT LENTEMENT.

LE COEUR CENTRAL DE FREDDY EST EN TRAIN DE SE RESTRUCTURER, ANNONCANT
UNE REINTENSIFICATION SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DANS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT FAVORABLES : UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UN
ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE ET UN CISAILLEMENT RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE. IL
DEVRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVANT
L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. LA VITESSE D'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME RESTE MALGRE TOUT EN PARTIE INCERTAINE ET DEPENDRA DE LA
VITESSE DE RECONSTITUTION DU COEUR. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE
SA AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR LES TERRES A PARTIR DE LA JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI MATIN PROBABLEMENT ENTRE
BEIRA ET INHAMBANE, VERS VILANCULOS.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
A LA COTE.
* MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (JUSQU'A 6-8M) A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI ET VENDREDI MATIN.
SURCOTE POUVANT ATTEINDRE 50CM A 1M PRES DE L'ATTERISSAGE.
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD DE BEIRA NOTAMMENT DANS LA PROVINCE
D'INHAMBANE, GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES (PROVINCE DE
GAZA) AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 100 A 200MM ET LOCALEMENT LES 300
MM EN 72H.

- NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD ET LE SUD ZIMBABWE : A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI, RISQUE DE PLUIES INTENSES (SUPERIEURES A 50MM EN 24H) POUVANT
CAUSER DES INONDATIONS SUR LES REGIONS LIMITROPHES DE LA PROVINCE DE
GAZA. DETAILS ENCORE INCERTAINS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230057
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/7/20222023
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 41.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/23 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 0

24H: 2023/02/24 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/24 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2023/02/25 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 22.2 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 31.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 29.2 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/02/28 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 26.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASED DURING THE LAST HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AROUND A LARGE AREA WITH LOW WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 1922Z AND 1830Z ASCAT PASSES AND THE
LAST SATELLITE IMAGES WHICH SHOW A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION
NEAR THE CENTER. IN RELATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, IT IS NOW VERY LIKELY THAT GALES ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, FREDDY IS ANALYZED AS A ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER 35KT AT 00Z.

DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH WHICH SHOULD THEN
STRENGTHEN TO ITS SOUTHWEST, FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD AND
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL DISPERSION HAS DECREASED AND THE
LANDFALL AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA, PROBABLY NEAR
VILANKULO. FROM THIS WEEKEND, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH AND THE CONTRADICTORY EFFECT OF THE TWO REMNANT RIDGES EAST AND
WEST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH-WESTWARD INLAND OF SOUTHERN AFRICA WHILE SLOWLY FILLING IN.

FREDDY'S INNER CORE IS REBUILDING, SUGGESTING REINTENSIFICATION OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN RATHER CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS :
GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR.
IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
LANDFALLING OVER MOZAMBIQUE. ACCORDING TO AVAILABLE MODELS, THE SPEED
OF INTENSIFICATION IS NEVERTHELESS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE SPEED OF THE INNER CORE REBUILDING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND FROM FRIDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MOZAMBIQUE : LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING PROBABLY
BETWEEN BEIRA AND INHAMBANE, NEAR VILANKULO.
* LIKELY ARRIVAL OF GALES IN THE NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
* VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS (UP TO 6-8M) NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SURGE POSSIBLY REACHING 50CM TO 1M
NEAR THE LANDFALL
* INTENSE RAINFALL SOUTH OF BEIRA ESPECIALLY IN INHAMBANE REGION
RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND (GAZA PROVINCE) WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING
100 TO 200 MM AND EVEN 300 MM LOCALLY IN 72 HOURS.

- NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH AFRICA AND ZIMBABWE : HEAVY RAINFALL
(MORE THAN 50 MM IN 24H) AND POTENTIAL FLOODING FROM SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NEIGHBOURING REGIONS OF THE GAZA PROVINCE. DETAILS
STILL UNCERTAIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 230018
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 41.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 125 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 12 UTC:
22.2 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/24 AT 00 UTC:
21.9 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221850
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/7/20222023
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 42.5 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SO: 175 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2023 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 0

24H: 23/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 24/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 45

48H: 24/02/2023 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 33.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 31.6 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 30.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 27/02/2023 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 28.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FREDDY SE TROUVE A NOUVEAU AU DESSUS DE LA MER DEPUIS LA FIN
D'APRES-MIDI, FAVORISANT DE NOUVEAU LA PRESENCE DE CONVECTION
PROFONDE EN PERIPHERIE NORD POUR L'INSTANT DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. LES
DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (GMI 1355Z NOTAMMENT), NE PERMETTENT PAS
ENCORE DE DISCERNER UN CENTRE NET. ENFIN LES PREMIERES DONNEES D'UNE
PASSE ASCAT TARDIVE (1830Z) ET LES DONNEES DE LA STATION D'EUROPA
SEMBLENT CONFIRMER L'ABSENCE DE COUP DE VENT ACTUELLEMENT.

PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD PUIS SE RENFORCANT
COTE SUD-OUEST, FREDDY DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST
PUIS OUEST-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI MATIN. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES A DIMINUE ET
LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE DEVRAIT SE SITUER ENTRE INHAMBANE ET BEIRA,
VERS VILANCULOS. A PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, SOUS L'EFFET DU PASSAGE
D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET DE L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DES DEUX DORSALES
RESIDUELLES A L'EST ET A L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR PUIS
DERIVER LENTEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST DANS LES TERRES D'AFRIQUE
AUSTRALE, TOUT EN SE COMBLANT LENTEMENT.

LE COEUR CENTRAL DE FREDDY EST EN TRAIN DE SE RESTRUCTURER CE
MERCREDI SOIR, ANNONCANT UNE REINTENSIFICATION SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE DANS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT FAVORABLES :
UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UN ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE ET UN
CISAILLEMENT RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE. IL POURRAIT DONC RAPIDEMENT
ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE D'ICI DEMAIN PUIS
POSSIBLEMENT DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE
MOZAMBIQUE. LA VITESSE D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME RESTE MALGRE TOUT
EN PARTIE INCERTAINE ET DEPENDRA DE LA VITESSE DE RECONSTITUTION DU
COEUR. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE SA AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR
LES TERRES A PARTIR DE LA JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MADAGASCAR :
* AMELIORATION RELATIVE EN COURS, LES BANDES ORAGEUSES TENDENT A
S'ELOIGNER DE PLUS EN PLUS EN MER DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE.

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI MATIN PROBABLEMENT ENTRE
BEIRA ET INHAMBANE, VERS VILANCULOS.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
A LA COTE.
* MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (JUSQU'A 6-8M) A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI ET VENDREDI MATIN.
SURCOTE POUVANT ATTEINDRE 50CM A 1M PRES DE L'ATTERISSAGE.
* PLUIES INTENSES AU SUD DE BEIRA NOTAMMENT LA PROVINCE
D'INHAMBANE, GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES (PROVINCE DE
GAZA) AVEC DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 300 MM EN 72H.

- NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD ET ZIMBABWE : A PARTIR DE SAMEDI,
RISQUE DE PLUIES INTENSES POUVANT CAUSER DES INONDATIONS SUR LES
REGIONS LIMITROPHES DE LA PROVINCE DE GAZA. DETAILS ENCORE
INCERTAINS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221850
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/7/20222023
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 42.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/23 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 0

24H: 2023/02/23 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2023/02/24 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/24 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 33.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 31.6 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 30.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/02/27 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 28.5 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FREDDY IS AGAIN OVER THE SEA SINCE LATE AFTERNOON, FAVORING AGAIN THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM CORE
FOR THE MOMENT. LAST MICROWAVE DATA (1355Z GMI) DO NOT SHOW THE
PRESENCE OF A WELL DEFINED CENTER. FINALLY THE PRELIMINARY DATA FROM
A LATE ASCAT PASS (1830Z) AND GROUND DATA FROM EUROPA SEEM TO CONFIRM
THE ABSENCE OF GALE AT THE MOMENT.

DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH WHICH SHOULD THEN
STRENGTHEN TO ITS SOUTHWEST, FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD AND
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL DISPERSION HAS DECREASED AND THE
LANDFALL AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA, NEAR VILANKULO.
FROM THIS WEEKEND, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE
CONTRADICTORY EFFECT OF THE TWO REMNANT RIDGES EAST AND WEST, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH-WESTWARD INLAND
OF SOUTHERN AFRICA WHILE SLOWLY FILLING IN.

FREDDY'S INNER CORE IS REBUILDING AGAIN THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING,
SUGGESTING REINTENSIFICATION OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN RATHER
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS : GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. IT COULD THEREFORE QUICKLY
REACH THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL STORM BY TOMORROW AND THEN POSSIBLY OF
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALLING OVER MOZAMBIQUE. ACCORDING
TO AVAILABLE MODELS, THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION IS NEVERTHELESS
RATHER UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE INNER CORE
REBUILDING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND FROM
FRIDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MADAGASCAR :
* GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF WEATHER CONDITIONS, RAIN BANDS ARE NOW MORE
AND MORE MOVING OUT TO SEA OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

- MOZAMBIQUE : LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING PROBABLY
BETWEEN BEIRA AND INHAMBANE, NEAR VILANKULO.
* LIKELY ARRIVAL OF GALES IN THE NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
* VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS (UP TO 6-8M) NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SURGE POSSIBLY REACHING 50CM TO 1M
NEAR THE LANDFALL
* INTENSE RAINFALL SOUTH OF BEIRA ESPECIALLY IN INHAMBANE REGION
RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND (GAZA PROVINCE) WITH ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY
EXCEEDING 300 MM IN 72 HOURS.

- NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH AFRICA AND ZIMBABWE : HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING FROM SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NEIGHBOURING
REGIONS OF THE GAZA PROVINCE. DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 221816
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 22/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 42.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM AROUND THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 06 UTC:
22.3 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 18 UTC:
22.1 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221352
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/7/20222023
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 43.2 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 520 SO: 220 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0

24H: 23/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SO: 220 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 110

36H: 24/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 24/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 25/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 32.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 31.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 27/02/2023 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 27.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
D'APRES L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE, LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES DE FREDDY EST PROBABLEMENT RESSORTI EN MER DANS LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE VERS 12UTC PRES DES COTES SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR AU SUD
DU CAP ST-VINCENT. LA CONVECTION ETAIT ALORS PEU MARQUEE ET ASSEZ
DISTANTE D'UN CENTRE ASSEZ MAL DEFINI. CEPENDANT LES DERNIERES IMAGES
MONTRENT UNE REPRISE RAPIDE DE LA CONVECTION A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE.
LE MANQUE DE CONVECTION REND IMPOSSIBLE UNE ANALYSE DE DVORAK POUR LE
MOMENT. FREDDY EST DONC TEMPORAIREMENT CLASSE EN ZONE PERTURBEE.

PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD PUIS SE RENFORCANT
COTE SUD-OUEST, FREDDY DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST
PUIS OUEST-NORD-OUEST JUSQU'A UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI MATIN. LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES A DIMINUE ET
LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE DEVRAIT SE SITUER ENTRE INHAMBANE ET BEIRA. A
PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, SOUS L'EFFET DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET
DE L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DES DEUX DORSALES RESIDUELLES A L'EST ET A
L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR PUIS DERIVER LENTEMENT VERS LE
NORD-OUEST DANS LES TERRES D'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, TOUT EN SE COMBLANT
LENTEMENT.

APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES, LE COEUR
CENTRAL DE FREDDY EST EN TRAIN DE SE RESTRUCTURER CE MERCREDI SOIR,
ANNONCANT UNE REINTENSIFICATION SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DANS DES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT FAVORABLES : UN BON POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, UN ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE ET UN CISAILLEMENT RELATIVEMENT
FAIBLE. IL POURRAIT DONC RAPIDEMENT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE D'ICI JEUDI MATIN PUIS POSSIBLEMENT DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. SELON LES MODELES
DISPONIBLES, LA VITESSE D'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT NEANMOINS ETRE
LIMITEE PAR UNE CIRCULATION UN PEU TROP LARGE, EMPECHANT UNE
INTENSIFICATION TROP MARQUEE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE SA
AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR LES TERRES A PARTIR DE LA JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MADAGASCAR :
* AMELIORATION RELATIVE EN COURS, LES BANDES ORAGEUSES TENDENT A
S'ELOIGNER DE PLUS EN PLUS EN MER DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE.

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI MATIN PROBABLEMENT ENTRE
BEIRA ET INHAMBANE.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
A LA COTE.
* MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (JUSQU'A 6-8M) A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI ET VENDREDI MATIN.
* PLUIES INTENSES GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES AVEC
DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 300 MM EN 72H.

- NORD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE DU SUD ET ZIMBABWE : A PARTIR DE SAMEDI,
RISQUE DE PLUIES INTENSES POUVANT CAUSER DES INONDATIONS. DETAILS
ENCORE INCERTAINS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221352
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/7/20222023
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 43.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 520 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/23 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2023/02/23 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110

36H: 2023/02/24 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/24 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 33.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2023/02/25 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 32.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 31.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 30.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/02/27 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 27.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, FREDDY'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS MOVED OUT TO SEA INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUNT 12Z, JUST OFF
MADAGASCAR'S SOUTH-WEST COAST, SOUTH OF CAPE ST-VINCENT. AT THAT
TIME, CONVECTION WAS QUITE WEAK AND SCATTERED AWAY FROM AN
ILL-DEFINED CENTER. HOWEVER, MORE RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION IS QUICKLY GATHERING AND INTENSIFYING CLOSER THE CENTER.
NO DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 12Z BECAUSE OF LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. FREDDY
IS THUS TEMPORARILY CLASSIFIED AS A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER.

DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH WHICH SHOULD THEN
STRENGTHEN TO ITS SOUTHWEST, FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD AND
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL DISPERSION HAS DECREASED AND THE
LANDFALL AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA. FROM THIS
WEEKEND, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE
CONTRADICTORY EFFECT OF THE TWO REMNANT RIDGES EAST AND WEST, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH-WESTWARD INLAND
OF SOUTHERN AFRICA WHILE SLOWLY FILLING IN.

AFTER A CLASSIC WEAKENING OVER MALAGASY LANDS, FREDDY'S CENTRAL CORE
IS REBUILDING AGAIN THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING, FOREBODING
REINTENSIFICATION OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN RATHER CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS : GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. IT COULD THEREFORE QUICKLY REACH THE STAGE
OF A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY OF SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALLING OVER MOZAMBIQUE. ACCORDING TO
AVAILABLE MODELS, THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD NEVERTHELESS BE
LIMITED BY A SLIGHTLY TOO LARGE CIRCULATION, PREVENTING A TOO MARKED
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND
FROM FRIDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MADAGASCAR :
* GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF WEATHER CONDITIONS, RAIN BANDS ARE NOW MORE
AND MORE MOVING OUT TO SEA OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

- MOZAMBIQUE : LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING PROBABLY
BETWEEN BEIRA AND INHAMBANE.
* LIKELY ARRIVAL OF GALES IN THE NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
* VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS (UP TO 6-8M) NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
* INTENSE RAINFALL RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE WITH ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY EXCEEDING 300 MM IN 72 HOURS.

- NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH AFRICA AND ZIMBABWE : HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING FROM SATURDAY. DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230222124419
2023022212 11S FREDDY 040 02 240 16 SATL SYNP 030
T000 224S 0436E 040 R034 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 226S 0412E 050 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 226S 0388E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 224S 0362E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 223S 0340E 045 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 227S 0312E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 040
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 040
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 43.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 43.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.6S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.6S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.4S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.3S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.7S 31.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 43.0E.
22FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z. REFER
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1123020412 127S1168E 20
1123020418 122S1173E 20
1123020500 118S1178E 25
1123020506 115S1184E 25
1123020512 114S1189E 25
1123020518 116S1193E 25
1123020600 120S1193E 30
1123020606 123S1191E 35
1123020612 127S1189E 45
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022200 211S 468E 70
1123022206 216S 451E 45
1123022212 224S 436E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 040
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 43.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 43.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.6S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.6S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.4S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.3S 34.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.7S 31.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 43.0E.
22FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 221216
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 22/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 (FREDDY) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 43.2 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 160
NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 00 UTC:
22.3 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 12 UTC:
22.1 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220721
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 22/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.7 S / 44.8 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 23/02/2023 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 0

36H: 23/02/2023 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 24/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 165 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 0

60H: 24/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 32.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SO: 150 NO: 0

72H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 31.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 27/02/2023 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 30.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FREDDY POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR
L'INTERIEUR DE MADAGASCAR. LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A NETTEMENT FAIBLIT
CES DERNIERES HEURES EN COMMENCANT A EXPOSER LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES, CENTREE ENTRE LES REGIONS DE MORONDAVA ET DE TULEAR.

PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE AU SUD, FREDDY DEVRAIT
POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE OUEST-SUD-OUEST ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT ET
RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE AUTOUR DE 12UTC AUJOURD'HUI. UNE
FOIS DANS LE CANAL, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE VERS L'OUEST
ET DONNE UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT OUEST PUIS OUEST-NORD-OUEST
JUSQU'A UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI MATIN.
LA DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES A DIMINUE ET LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE
DEVRAIT SE SITUER ENTRE INHAMBANE ET BEIRA. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SOUS
L'EFFET DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET DE L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE
DES DEUX DORSALES RESIDUELLES A L'EST ET A L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME
RALENTIT ET DEVRAIT REMONTER LENTEMENT VERS LE NORD A LA
RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE SUD-OUEST.

APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES, LE COEUR
CENTRAL DE FREDDY DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RESTRUCTURER A PARTIR DE
CE MERCREDI SOIR AVANT UNE REINTENSIFICATION SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE DANS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT FAVORABLES :
UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UN ENVIRONNEMENT HUMIDE ET UN
CISAILLEMENT RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE. DANS CES CONDITIONS, IL POURRAIT
RAPIDEMENT DE NOUVEAU ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE JUSTE
APRES SA SORTIE DANS LE CANAL. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES ET
DETERMINISTES PROPOSENT UNE REINTENSIFICATION, MAIS A UN RYTHME PLUS
OU MOINS RAPIDE, QUI PEUT DEPENDRE DE LA VITESSE DE RECONSTITUTION DU
COEUR DE BASSES COUCHES ET DE SA DIMENSION. IL RESTE DONC UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE DE FREDDY LORS DE SON TRANSIT
SUR LE CANAL. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CRMS SUIT OPTION MEDIANE AVEC
UNE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVANT
L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE SA
AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR LES TERRES A PARTIR DE LA JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MADAGASCAR :
* PLUIES ORAGEUSES ESSENTIELLEMENT SUR LE CENTRE-OUEST DU PAYS,
POUVANT DONNER DES CUMULS ADDITIONNELS DE 100MM.

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI MATIN PROBABLEMENT ENTRE
BEIRA ET INHAMBANE.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
A LA COTE.
* MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (JUSQU'A 6-8M) A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI ET VENDREDI MATIN.
* PLUIES INTENSES GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES AVEC
DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 300 MM EN 72H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220721
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 44.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/22 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2023/02/23 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 0

36H: 2023/02/23 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2023/02/24 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

60H: 2023/02/24 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 32.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 315 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 31.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/02/27 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 30.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FREDDY IS STILL TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER INLAND MADAGASCAR.
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED DURING THE LAST HOURS
AND HAS STARTED TO EXPOSE THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX WHICH IS LOCATED
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MORONDAVA AND TOLIARA REGIONS.

DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, FREDDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY AND EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AROUND 12UTC TODAY. ONCE IN THE CHANNEL, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS TOWARDS THE WEST AND WILL STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
THEN WESTNORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST ON
FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL DISPERSION HAS DECREASED, MAKING THE LANDFALL
AREA PROBABLY BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA. OVER THE WEEKEND, UNDER
THE EFFECT OF A TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FROM TWO RESIDUAL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST, THE SYSTEM
WILL ALMOST STALL OVERLAND BEFORE SLIGHTLY DRIFTING NORTHWARDS AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS TO ITS SOUTH-WEST.

AFTER CLASSIC WEAKENING OVER THE MALAGASY LANDS, THE CENTRAL CORE OF
FREDDY SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD UP AGAIN BEFORE REINTENSIFICATION OVER
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN QUITE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS :
GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, MOIST ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LOW WIND
SHEAR. IT COULD THUS QUICKLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STAGE AGAIN JUST
AFTER EXITING INTO THE CHANNEL. MOST MODELS SUGGEST MORE OR LESS
QUICK REINTENSIFICATION, WHICH CAN DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM'S
INNER CORE REBUILDS AND ON ITS SIZE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE PRESENT
RSMC FORECAST FOLLOWS A MEDIAN OPTION WITH INTENSIFICATION UP TO
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MADAGASCAR :
* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR 100MM OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY.

- MOZAMBIQUE : LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING PROBABLY
BETWEEN BEIRA AND INHAMBANE.
* LIKELY ARRIVAL OF GALES IN THE NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
* VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS (UP TO 6-8M) NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
* INTENSE RAINFALL RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND WITH ACCUMULATIONS
LOCALLY EXCEEDING 300 MM IN 72 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 220628
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 22/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 44.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/22 AT 18 UTC:
22.2 S / 42.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 06 UTC:
22.2 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230222011128
2023022200 11S FREDDY 039 01 270 14 SATL SYNP 015
T000 211S 0468E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 218S 0438E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 221S 0414E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 220S 0389E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 218S 0364E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 224S 0324E 035
T096 226S 0312E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 039
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 46.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.8S 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.1S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.0S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.8S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.4S 32.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.6S 31.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 46.0E.
22FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.
//
1123020412 127S1168E 20
1123020418 122S1173E 20
1123020500 118S1178E 25
1123020506 115S1184E 25
1123020512 114S1189E 25
1123020518 116S1193E 25
1123020600 120S1193E 30
1123020606 123S1191E 35
1123020612 127S1189E 45
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022118 211S 483E 85
1123022200 211S 468E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 46.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.8S 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.1S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.0S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.8S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.4S 32.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.6S 31.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 46.0E.
22FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND
230300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220117
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 22/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.3 S / 47.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SO: 45 NO: 45
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 30 NO: 30
48 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 23/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 23/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 0

48H: 24/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 35 NO: 45

60H: 24/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 100 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 25/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 31.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 27/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 31.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FREDDY POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR
L'INTERIEUR DE MADAGASCAR. LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A NETTEMENT FAIBLIT
SES DERNIERES HEURES EN COMMENCANT A LAISSER APPARAITRE LE VORTEX DE
BASSES COUCHES AU SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUR
MADAGASCAR. PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR LE SUD
DES MASCAREIGNES, FREDDY DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT ET RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE AUTOUR DE 12UTC AUJOURD'HUI. UNE FOIS DANS LE CANAL, LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE VERS L'OUEST ET DONNE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT OUEST AU SYSTEME JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. IL EXISTE
ENCORE UNE DISPERSION DES DIFFERENTS MODELES SUR LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE MAIS LES DERNIERS MODELES DETERMINISTES DE IFS ET GFS
SE RAPPROCHENT.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, SOUS L'EFFET DU PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET DE
L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DES DEUX DORSALES RESIDUELLES A L'EST ET A
L'OUEST, LE SYSTEME RALENTIT ET DEVRAIT REMONTER LENTEMENT VERS LE
NORD A LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE SUD-OUEST.

APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES, LE COEUR
CENTRAL DE FREDDY DEVRAIT SE RESTRUCTURER AVANT UNE REINTENSIFICATION
SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DANS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
MIXTES : LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST IMPORTANT PROCHE DES COTES MAIS
UN PEU MOINS AU CENTRE DU CANAL. LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT UN PEU
PRESENT A LA SORTIE SUR LE CANAL FAIBLIT A PARTIR DU MILIEU DU CANAL.
ENFIN LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'UNE BONNE HUMIDITE ENVIRONNANTE. DANS
CES CONDITIONS, IL POURRAIT RAPIDEMENT DE NOUVEAU ATTEINDRE LE STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE JUSTE APRES SA SORTIE DANS LE CANAL. L'ENSEMBLE
DES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES ET DETERMINISTES PROPOSENT UNE
REINTENSIFICATION, TOUTEFOIS TOUS N'ATTEIGNENT PAS LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT D'ARRIVER SUR LES COTES. IL RESTE DONC UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE DE FREDDY LORS DE SON TRANSIT
SUR LE CANAL. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CRMS NE FAIT PAS ATTEINDRE CE
STADE MAIS CE SCENARIO RESTE POSSIBLE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PAR LA
SUITE SA AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR LES TERRES EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MADAGASCAR :
* MER TRES FORTE (4-6M) ENTRE MAHANORO ET VANGAINDRANO ACTUELLEMENT,
S'ATTENUANT RAPIDEMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES.
* CUMULS DE PLUIES SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE L'EPISODE AUTOUR DE 100MM
ESSENTIELLEMENT SUR LE CENTRE DE L'ILE.

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE
PROBABLEMENT ENTRE BEIRA ET MURRUMBENE.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
A LA COTE.
* MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (4 A 6M) A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI.
* PLUIES INTENSES GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES AVEC
DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 300 MM EN 72H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220117
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 47.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SW: 45 NW: 45
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30
48 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/22 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2023/02/23 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2023/02/23 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2023/02/24 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 45

60H: 2023/02/24 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2023/02/25 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/26 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 31.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/02/27 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 31.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FREDDY STILL MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER INLAND MADAGASCAR. THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED DURING THE LAST HOURS AND
STARTED TO LET APPEAR THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CONVECTION.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST OVER MADAGASCAR. DRIVEN BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MASCARENE, FREDDY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY AND EXIT THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND 12UTC TODAY. ONCE IN THE CHANNEL, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TOWARDS THE WEST AND GIVES A GENERALLY
WESTERLY TRACK TO THE SYSTEM UNTIL ITS LANDING ON THE COASTS OF
MOZAMBIQUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY OF FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL A
DISPERSION OF THE DIFFERENT MODELS ON THE LANDING AREA BUT THE LAST
DETERMINIST MODELS OF IFS AND GFS ARE GETTING CLOSER.
AT THE END OF THE DAY, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH AND THE CONTRADICTORY EFFECT OF THE TWO RESIDUAL RIDGES TO
THE EAST AND WEST, THE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN AND SHOULD SLOWLY GO
BACK NORTHWARDS TO THE RECONSTRUCTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST.

AFTER A CLASSICAL WEAKENING OVER THE MALAGASY LANDS, THE CENTRAL CORE
OF FREDDY SHOULD RESTRUCTURE BEFORE A REINTENSIFICATION OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS : THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT NEAR THE COASTS BUT A LITTLE LESS IN THE
CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. THE WIND SHEAR, A LITTLE PRESENT AT THE EXIT
ON THE CHANNEL, WEAKENS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE CHANNEL. FINALLY THE
SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM A GOOD SURROUNDING HUMIDITY. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, IT COULD QUICKLY REACH AGAIN THE STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM
JUST AFTER ITS EXIT IN THE CHANNEL. ALL THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINIST
MODELS PROPOSE A REINTENSIFICATION, BUT NOT ALL OF THEM REACH THE
STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ARRIVING ON THE COASTS. THERE IS
STILL AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF FREDDY DURING ITS
TRANSIT ON THE CHANNEL. THE PRESENT FORECAST OF THE RSMC DOES NOT
MAKE REACH THIS STAGE BUT THIS SCENARIO REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY INLAND ON FRIDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MADAGASCAR :
* VERY STRONG SEA (4-6M) BETWEEN MAHANORO AND VANGAINDRANO AT
PRESENT, RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN THE NEXT HOURS.
* RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE WHOLE EPISODE AROUND 100MM MAINLY OVER THE
CENTER OF THE ISLAND.

- MOZAMBIQUE : LANDING EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY PROBABLY BETWEEN BEIRA
AND MURRUMBENE.
* PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF THE GALE IN THE NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
AT THE COAST.
* VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS (4 TO 6M) NEAR THE LANDING ZONE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
* INTENSE RAINFALL RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND WITH ACCUMULATIONS
LOCALLY EXCEEDING 300 MM IN 72 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 220024
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/02/2023
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 22/02/2023 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 47.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
NIL.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/22 AT 12 UTC:
22.0 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/23 AT 00 UTC:
22.0 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211844
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/7/20222023
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.1 S / 48.1 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SO: 75 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 45 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 22/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 120 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 23/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 175 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 23/02/2023 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SO: 175 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 35 NO: 45

60H: 24/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 30

72H: 24/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2023 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 31.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 26/02/2023 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 31.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FREDDY A ATTERRI SUR LES COTES MALGACHES VERS 1630Z DANS LES ENVIRONS
DE MANANJARY AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. AU COURS DES DERNIERES
HEURES AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A UN PEU REPRIS
DE LA VIGUEUR ET LA CONVECTION S'EST REFORMEE TOUT AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
ARRIVE SUR TERRE, LE SYSTEME A COMMENCE A S'AFFAIBLIR ET A LEGEREMENT
RALENTI SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SUR
MADAGASCAR. PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR LE SUD
DES MASCAREIGNES, FREDDY DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT ET RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE AUTOUR DE 12UTC DEMAIN. UNE FOIS DANS LE CANAL, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE VERS L'OUEST ET DONNE UNE TRAJECTOIRE
GLOBALEMENT OUEST AU SYSTEME JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES
DU MOZAMBIQUE EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE
DISPERSION DES DIFFERENTS MODELES SUR LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE MAIS LES
DERNIERS MODELES DETERMINISTES DE IFS ET GFS SE RAPPROCHENT. EN
PRENANT EN COMPTE CETTE EVOLUTION, LA TRAJECTOIRE OFFICIELLE DU CMRS
EST REVUE LEGEREMENT PLUS AU NORD QUE LA PRECEDENTE.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME SUR TERRE RALENTI, SOUS L'EFFET DU
PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET DE L'EFFET CONTRACDICTOIRE DES DEUX
DORSALES RESIDUELLE A L'EST ET A L'OUEST, AVANT DE REMONTER LENTEMENT
VERS LE NORD A LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE
SUD-OUEST.

APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES, LE COEUR
CENTRAL DE FREDDY DEVRAIT SE RESTRUCTURER AVANT UNE REINTENSIFICATION
SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DANS DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
MIXTES : LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST IMPORTANT PROCHE DES COTES MAIS
UN PEU MOINS AU CENTRE DU CANAL. LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT UN PEU
PRESENT A LA SORTIE SUR LE CANAL FAIBLIT A PARTIR DU MILIEU DU CANAL.
ENFIN LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE D'UNE BONNE HUMIDITE ENVIRONNANTE. DANS
CES CONDITIONS, IL POURRAIT RAPIDEMENT DE NOUVEAU ATTEINDRE LE STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE VOIRE CELUI DE CYCLONE TROPICAL JUSTE AVANT SON
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES
ET DETERMINISTES PROPOSENT UNE REINTENSIFICATION, TOUTEFOIS TOUS
N'ATTEIGNENT PAS LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL AVANT D'ARRIVER SUR LES
COTES. IL RESTE DONC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE DE
FREDDY LORS DE SON TRANSIT SUR LE CANAL. LA PREVISION DU CRMS FAIT
ATTEINDRE LE STADE INFERIEUR DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. PUIS, LE VORTEX
DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE SA AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR LES TERRES.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MADAGASCAR :
* MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (6 A 9M) SUR LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE, EN
BAISSE (<4M) D'ICI LES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES.
* PLUIES INTENSES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36 HEURES, CUMULS POUVANT
AVOISINER 200 MM PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LORS DE LA TRAVERSEE DES
TERRES PAR LE SYSTEME, LES CUMULS RESTERONT DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM AU
COURS DE L'EPISODE.

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE
PROBABLEMENT ENTRE BEIRA ET MURRUMBENE.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
A LA COTE.
* MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE (4 A 6M) A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI.
* PLUIES INTENSES GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES AVEC
DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 300 MM EN 72H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/7/20222023
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 48.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 315 SW: 75 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 45 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/22 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2023/02/22 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2023/02/23 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2023/02/23 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 45

60H: 2023/02/24 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 30

72H: 2023/02/24 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/25 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 31.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/02/26 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 31.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
WITH A VERY WEAKENED INNER EYEWALL MAINLY IN ITS SOUTHWESTERN PART,
SUGGESTING A WEAK EYEWALL CYCLE.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS AGAIN DOWNGRADED. THE SYSTEM REMAINS HOWEVER
AT THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST UNTIL THE LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR: FREDDY MAINTAINS ITS COURSE TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL
EVENING, SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FACADE OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF
THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE FORECASTS OF THE
VARIOUS MODELS REMAIN LITTLE DISPERSED AND STABLE, WITH A GOOD
CONFIDENCE ON A TRAJECTORY ACCELERATING IT UNTIL A LANDING IN THE
EVENING ON THE MALAGASY EAST COAST, AT THE LEVEL OF THE PROVINCES OF
ATSINANA AND VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY.
WHEN THE SYSTEM EMERGED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE DISPERSION
OF THE MODELS WAS CLEARLY REDUCED ON THE LAST AVAILABLE RUNS. THE
CMRS TRAJECTORY PREDICTION CAME BACK TO THE SCENARIO OF A MORE
SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY AS PROPOSED BY IFS AND JOINED BY THE LAST GFS RUN
AS WELL. THIS REINFORCES THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
AT THE END OF THE RUN, THE SYSTEM ON LAND SLOWS DOWN, UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND OF THE
CONTRACITORY EFFECT OF THE TWO RESIDUAL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND TO THE
WEST, BEFORE SLOWLY GOING BACK NORTHWARDS TO THE RECONSTRUCTION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

WITH AN INTERNAL EYEWALL STRUCTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY QUITE WEAKENED,
THE RESUMPTION OF AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE NOW SEEMS TO BE EXCLUDED
BEFORE LANDING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE MALAGASY COASTS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OF STRUCTURE COULD INDUCE A
MODIFICATION OF THE EXTENT OF THE IMPACT ZONE OF THE PHENOMENON
DURING THE LANDING. FREDDY SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST THE UPPER
THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING ITS RAPID PATH TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR.
AT THE END, AFTER A CLASSICAL WEAKENING OVER THE MALAGASY LANDS, THE
CENTRAL CORE OF FREDDY SHOULD RESTRUCTURE BEFORE A REINTENSIFICATION
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(OCEANIC POTENTIAL LESS RICH THAN OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN BASIN, BUT A
LOCATION UNDER THE HIGH RIDGE). IT COULD THEREFORE REACH THE LOWER
STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDING ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST
BY FRIDAY. ACCORDING TO THE CMRS FORECAST, THE VORTEX SHOULD THEN
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAND.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

- MADAGASCAR :
* VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS (6 TO 9M) OVER THE LANDFALL AREA,
DECREASING (<4M) WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
* INTENSE RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, CUMULUS THAT COULD BE
AROUND 200 MM NEAR THE IMPACT AREA. WHEN THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE LAND,
THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN AROUND 100MM DURING THE EPISODE.

- MOZAMBIQUE : LANDING EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY PROBABLY BETWEEN BEIRA
AND MURRUMBENE.
* PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF THE GALE IN THE NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
AT THE COAST.
* VERY ROUGH TO HEAVY SEAS (4 TO 6M) NEAR THE LANDING ZONE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
* INTENSE RAINFALL RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND WITH ACCUMULATIONS
LOCALLY EXCEEDING 300 MM IN 72 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 211816
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2023
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 21/02/2023 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (FREDDY) CENTRAL PRESSURE NIL
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 48.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/22 AT 06 UTC:
21.7 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/22 AT 18 UTC:
22.0 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230221124411
2023022112 11S FREDDY 038 01 250 16 SATL 010
T000 207S 0496E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 215S 0465E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 220S 0436E 040 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 223S 0412E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 223S 0388E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 222S 0343E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 231S 0319E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 038
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 20.7S 49.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 49.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.5S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.3S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.3S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2S 34.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.1S 31.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 48.8E.
21FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.//
1123020412 127S1168E 20
1123020418 122S1173E 20
1123020500 118S1178E 25
1123020506 115S1184E 25
1123020512 114S1189E 25
1123020518 116S1193E 25
1123020600 120S1193E 30
1123020606 123S1191E 35
1123020612 127S1189E 45
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020618 134S1185E 55
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020700 139S1178E 65
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020706 143S1170E 75
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020712 146S1161E 90
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020718 149S1153E 95
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020800 151S1145E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020806 155S1138E 90
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020812 160S1130E 80
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020818 162S1120E 70
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020900 157S1110E 65
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020906 154S1103E 60
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020912 154S1098E 50
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123020918 156S1092E 60
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021000 153S1080E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021006 152S1075E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021012 148S1065E 70
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021018 147S1056E 75
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021100 148S1049E 80
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021106 148S1039E 95
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021112 148S1030E 105
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021118 150S1021E 115
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021200 151S1010E 110
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021206 151S1001E 105
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021212 151S 989E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021218 151S 980E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021300 152S 969E 100
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021306 153S 958E 95
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021312 154S 946E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021318 154S 934E 90
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021400 154S 925E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021406 154S 910E 95
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021412 153S 900E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021418 153S 887E 115
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021500 153S 873E 120
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021506 152S 860E 130
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021512 150S 849E 135
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021518 148S 836E 140
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021600 148S 823E 145
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021606 149S 810E 125
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021612 150S 795E 115
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021618 152S 780E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021700 154S 766E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021706 156S 752E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021712 158S 740E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021718 160S 728E 120
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021800 161S 715E 115
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021806 161S 704E 110
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021812 161S 693E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021818 163S 682E 115
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021900 167S 670E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021906 170S 656E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021912 174S 640E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123021918 177S 624E 140
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022000 181S 606E 130
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022006 185S 587E 125
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022012 189S 568E 120
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022018 193S 549E 115
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022100 198S 530E 110
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022106 201S 512E 105
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
1123022112 207S 496E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 20.7S 49.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 49.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.5S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.3S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.3S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2S 34.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.1S 31.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 48.8E.
21FEB23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211259
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 49.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 55

24H: 22/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 35

36H: 23/02/2023 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 100 NO: 55

48H: 23/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 45

60H: 24/02/2023 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 220 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 24/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 75 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2023 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 55

120H: 26/02/2023 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0- CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A CONTINUE
DE SE DEGRADER AVEC UN MUR DE L'OEIL INTERNE TRES AFFAIBLI
PRINCIPALEMENT DANS SA PARTIE SUD-OUEST, CE QUI LAISSE PENSER A UN
CYCLE DU MUR DE L'OEIL PEU FRANC.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST A NOUVEAU NOTEE A LA BAISSE. LE SYSTEME RESTE
CEPENDANT AU STADE DE EN CYCLONE TROPICAL.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE JUSQU'A
L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR : FREDDY MAINTIENT SON CAP VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'EN SOIREE, LONGEANT LA FACADE NORD DES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. A COURT TERME, LES PREVISIONS
DES DIFFERENTS MODELES RESTENT PEU DISPERSEES ET STABLES, AVEC UNE
BONNE CONFIANCE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE L'ACCELERANT JUSQU'A UN
ATTERRISSAGE EN SOIREE SUR LA COTE EST MALGACHE, AU NIVEAU DES
PROVINCES D'ATSINANA ET VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY.
LORS DE LA RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES S'EST NETTEMENT REDUITE SUR LES DERNIERS
RESEAUX DISPONIBLES. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST REVENU
SUR LE SCENARIO D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS AU SUD COMME PROPOSE PAR IFS
ET REJOINT PAR LE DERNIER RUN DE GFS EGALEMENT. CE QUI RENFORCE LA
CONFIANCE DANS CETTE PREVISION.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME SUR TERRE RALENTI, SOUS L'EFFET DU
PASSAGE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD ET DE L'EFFET CONTRACDICTOIRE DES DEUX
DORSALES RESIDUELLE A L'EST ET A L'OUEST, AVANT DE REMONTER LENTEMENT
VERS LE NORD A LA RECONSTRUCTION DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PAR LE
SUD-OUEST.

AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DE MUR DE L'OEIL INTERNE ASSEZ AFFAIBLIE
ACTUELLEMENT, LA REPRISE D'UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION SEMBLE
MAINTENANT EXCLUE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SUR
LES COTES MALGACHES. NEANMOINS, LA POSSIBILITE D'UN CHANGEMENT DE
STRUCTURE POURRAIT INDUIRE UNE MODIFICATION DE L'ETENDUE DE LA ZONE
IMPACT DU PHENOMENE LORS L'ATTERRISSAGE. FREDDY DEVRAIT MAINTENIR A
MINIMA LE SEUIL SUPERIEUR DE CYCLONE TROPICAL LORS DE SON TRAJET
RAPIDE VERS MADAGASCAR.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE SUR LES TERRES
MALGACHES, LE COEUR CENTRAL DE FREDDY DEVRAIT SE RESTRUCTURER AVANT
UNE REINTENSIFICATION SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DANS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES MIXTES (POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE MOINS RICHE QUE SUR LE
BASSIN OCEAN INDIEN, MAIS UNE LOCALISATION SOUS LA DORSALE
D'ALTITUDE). IL POURRAIT DONC ATTEINDRE LE STADE INFERIEUR DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE DU MOZAMBIQUE A ECHEANCE
DE VENDREDI. SUIVANT LA PREVISION DU CMRS, LE VORTEX DEVRAIT PAR LA
SUITE SA AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR LES TERRES.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MADAGASCAR : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU MARDI SOIR ENTRE 15UTC ET 18UTC
PROBABLEMENT SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE VATOVANY-FITOVINANY, AU
NORD DE MANANJARY.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DE LA TEMPETE DES 13UTC SUR LA COTE.
* MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME AU LARGE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DES CET APRES MIDI (VAGUES DE 9 A 12M) AVEC UNE
SURCOTE ARRIVANT PLUS TARDIVEMENT ET POUVANT ATTEINDRE LES 2M
LOCALEMENT.
* PLUIES INTENSES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36 HEURES, CUMULS POUVANT
AVOISINER 200 MM PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LORS DE LA TRAVERSEE DES
TERRES PAR LE SYSTEME, LES CUMULS RESTERONT DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM AU
COURS DE L'EPISODE.

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE
PROBABLEMENT ENTRE BEIRA ET MAXIXE.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
A LA COTE.
* MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE EN
JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.
* PLUIES INTENSES GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES AVEC
DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 300 MM EN 72H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211259
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 49.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/22 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 55

24H: 2023/02/22 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2023/02/23 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 55

48H: 2023/02/23 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 45

60H: 2023/02/24 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2023/02/24 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/25 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 55

120H: 2023/02/26 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 31.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE
WITH A VERY WEAKENED INNER EYEWALL MAINLY IN ITS SOUTHWESTERN PART,
SUGGESTING A WEAK EYEWALL CYCLE.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS AGAIN DOWNGRADED. THE SYSTEM REMAINS HOWEVER
AT THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST UNTIL THE LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR: FREDDY MAINTAINS ITS COURSE TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL
EVENING, SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FACADE OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF
THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE FORECASTS OF THE
VARIOUS MODELS REMAIN LITTLE DISPERSED AND STABLE, WITH A GOOD
CONFIDENCE ON A TRAJECTORY ACCELERATING IT UNTIL A LANDING IN THE
EVENING ON THE MALAGASY EAST COAST, AT THE LEVEL OF THE PROVINCES OF
ATSINANA AND VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY.
WHEN THE SYSTEM EMERGED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE DISPERSION
OF THE MODELS WAS CLEARLY REDUCED ON THE LAST AVAILABLE RUNS. THE
CMRS TRAJECTORY PREDICTION CAME BACK TO THE SCENARIO OF A MORE
SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY AS PROPOSED BY IFS AND JOINED BY THE LAST GFS RUN
AS WELL. THIS REINFORCES THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
AT THE END OF THE RUN, THE SYSTEM ON LAND SLOWS DOWN, UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND OF THE
CONTRACITORY EFFECT OF THE TWO RESIDUAL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND TO THE
WEST, BEFORE SLOWLY GOING BACK NORTHWARDS TO THE RECONSTRUCTION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

WITH AN INTERNAL EYEWALL STRUCTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY QUITE WEAKENED,
THE RESUMPTION OF AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE NOW SEEMS TO BE EXCLUDED
BEFORE LANDING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE MALAGASY COASTS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OF STRUCTURE COULD INDUCE A
MODIFICATION OF THE EXTENT OF THE IMPACT ZONE OF THE PHENOMENON
DURING THE LANDING. FREDDY SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST THE UPPER
THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING ITS RAPID PATH TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR.
AT THE END, AFTER A CLASSICAL WEAKENING OVER THE MALAGASY LANDS, THE
CENTRAL CORE OF FREDDY SHOULD RESTRUCTURE BEFORE A REINTENSIFICATION
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(OCEANIC POTENTIAL LESS RICH THAN OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN BASIN, BUT A
LOCATION UNDER THE HIGH RIDGE). IT COULD THEREFORE REACH THE LOWER
STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDING ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST
BY FRIDAY. ACCORDING TO THE CMRS FORECAST, THE VORTEX SHOULD THEN
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAND.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MADAGASCAR : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU MARDI SOIR ENTRE 15UTC ET 18UTC
PROBABLEMENT SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE VATOVANY-FITOVINANY, AU
NORD DE MANANJARY.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DE LA TEMPETE DES 13UTC SUR LA COTE.
* MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME AU LARGE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE DES CET APRES MIDI (VAGUES DE 9 A 12M) AVEC UNE
SURCOTE ARRIVANT PLUS TARDIVEMENT ET POUVANT ATTEINDRE LES 2M
LOCALEMENT.
* PLUIES INTENSES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36 HEURES, CUMULS POUVANT
AVOISINER 200 MM PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LORS DE LA TRAVERSEE DES
TERRES PAR LE SYSTEME, LES CUMULS RESTERONT DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM AU
COURS DE L'EPISODE.

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE
PROBABLEMENT ENTRE BEIRA ET MAXIXE.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
A LA COTE.
* MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE EN
JOURNEE DE VENDREDI.
* PLUIES INTENSES GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES AVEC
DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 300 MM EN 72H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 211206
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2023
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 21/02/2023 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 49.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/22 AT 00 UTC:
21.3 S / 46.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/22 AT 12 UTC:
22.0 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210715
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/7/20222023
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/02/2023 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 51.1 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 959 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/02/2023 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SO: 175 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 22/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 120 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 0

36H: 22/02/2023 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 75

48H: 23/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 285 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 75

60H: 23/02/2023 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 45

72H: 24/02/2023 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/02/2023 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 31.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 26/02/2023 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A CONTINUE
DE SE DEGRADER AVEC UN MUR DE L'OEIL INTERNE TRES AFFAIBLI COMME LE
MONTRE LA PASS SSMIS DE 01H20UTC, CE QUI LAISSE PENSER A UN CYCLE DU
MUR DE L'OEIL PEU FRANC.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST NOTEE A LA BAISSE CE QUE VALIDENT LES DERNIERES
DONNEES SMAP DE 02Z DE 87KT, CE QUI CONFIRME LE DECLASSEMENT EN
CYCLONE TROPICAL.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE JUSQU'A
L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR : FREDDY MAINTIENT SON CAP VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A MARDI SOIR, LONGEANT LA FACADE NORD DES
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. A COURT TERME, LES
PREVISIONS DES DIFFERENTS MODELES RESTENT PEU DISPERSEES ET STABLES,
AVEC UNE BONNE CONFIANCE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE L'ACCELERANT JUSQU'A UN
ATTERRISSAGE MARDI SOIR SUR LA COTE EST MALGACHE, AU NIVEAU DES
PROVINCES D'ATSINANA ET VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY.
LORS DE LA RESSORTIE DU SYSTEME SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES S'EST NETTEMENT REDUITE SUR LES DERNIERS
RESEAUX DISPONIBLES. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST REVENU
SUR LE SCENARIO D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS AU SUD COMME PROPOSE PAR IFS
ET REJOINT PAR LE DERNIER RUN DE GFS EGALEMENT. CE QUI RENFORCE LA
CONFIANCE DANS CETTE PREVISION.


AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DE MUR DE L'OEIL INTERNE ASSEZ AFFAIBLIE
ACTUELLEMENT, LA REPRISE D'UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RESTE
INCERTAINE AVANT L'ATTERRISAGE EN SOIREE SUR LES COTES MALGACHES.
NEANMOINS, LA POSSIBILITE D'UN CHANGEMENT DE STRUCTURE POURRAIT
INDUIRE UNE MODIFICATION DE L'ETENDUE DE LA ZONE IMPACT DU PHENOMENE
LORS L'ATTERRISSAGE. FREDDY DEVRAIT MAINTENIR A MINIMA LE SEUIL
SUPERIEUR DE CYCLONE TROPICAL LORS DE SON TRAJET RAPIDE VERS
MADAGASCAR.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE SUR LES TERRES
MALGACHES, LE COEUR CENTRAL DE FREDDY DEVRAIT SE RESTRUCTURER AVANT
UNE REINTENSIFICATION SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DANS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES MIXTES (POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE MOINS RICHE QUE SUR LE
BASSIN OCEAN INDIEN, ET SURTOUT UN RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT EN
MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE). IL POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS ATTEINDRE LE
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE DU
MOZAMBIQUE A ECHEANCE DE VENDREDI. SUIVANT LA PREVISION DU CMRS, LE
VORTEX DEVRAIT PAR LA SUITE SA AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT SUR LES TERRES.


IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES AU COURS DES 72 PROCHAINES HEURES :

- MADAGASCAR : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU MARDI SOIR ENTRE 15UTC ET 18UTC
PROBABLEMENT SUR LE NORD DE LA PROVINCE DE VATOVANY-FITOVINANY.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT A PARTIR DE MARDI 12UTC.
* MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME AU LARGE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE EN COURS D'APRES MIDI DE MARDI (VAGUES DE 9 A 12M)
AVEC UNE SURCOTE ARRIVANT PLUS TARDIVEMENT ET POUVANT ATTEINDRE LES
2M LOCALEMENT.
* PLUIES INTENSES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 36 HEURES, CUMULS POUVANT
AVOISINER 200 MM PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LORS DE LA TRAVERSEE DES
TERRES PAR LE SYSTEME, LES CUMULS RESTERONT DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM AU
COURS DE L'EPISODE.

- MOZAMBIQUE : ATTERRISSAGE PREVU VENDREDI EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE
PROBABLEMENT ENTRE BEIRA ET MAXIXE.
* ARRIVEE PROBABLE DU COUP DE VENT DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
A LA COTE.
* MER GROSSE A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE EN JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI.
* PLUIES INTENSES GAGNANT RAPIDEMENT L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES AVEC
DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 300 MM EN 72H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210715
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/7/20222023
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY)

2.A POSITION 2023/02/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 51.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 959 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/02/21 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2023/02/22 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 0

36H: 2023/02/22 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 75

48H: 2023/02/23 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 75

60H: 2023/02/23 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 45

72H: 2023/02/24 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2023/02/25 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 31.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2023/02/26 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 30.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS CONTINUED TO
DEGRADE WITH A VERY WEAKENED INNER EYE WALL AS SHOWN BY THE 01H20UTC
SSMIS PASS, WHICH SUGGESTS A WEAK EYE WALL CYCLE.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS DOWNGRADED WHICH IS VALIDATED BY THE LAST SMAP
DATA OF 02Z OF 87KT, WHICH CONFIRMS THE DOWNGRADING TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY FORECAST UNTIL LANDING ON
MADAGASCAR: FREDDY MAINTAINS ITS COURSE TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING, SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FACADE OF THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE
FORECASTS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS REMAIN LITTLE DISPERSED AND STABLE,
WITH A GOOD CONFIDENCE ON A TRAJECTORY ACCELERATING IT UNTIL A
LANDING ON TUESDAY EVENING ON THE MALAGASY EAST COAST, AT THE LEVEL
OF THE PROVINCES OF ATSINANA AND VATOVAVY-FITOVINANY.
WHEN THE SYSTEM EMERGED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE DISPERSION
OF THE MODELS WAS CLEARLY REDUCED ON THE LAST AVAILABLE RUNS. THE
CMRS TRAJECTORY PREDICTION CAME BACK TO THE SCENARIO OF A MORE
SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY AS PROPOSED BY IFS AND JOINED BY THE LAST GFS RUN
AS WELL. THIS REINFORCES THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

WITH A RATHER WEAKENED INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE AT PRESENT, THE
RESUMPTION OF AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE REMAINS UNCERTAIN BEFORE THE
EVENING LANDING ON THE MALAGASY COAST. NEVERTHELESS, THE POSSIBILITY
OF A CHANGE OF STRUCTURE COULD INDUCE A MODIFICATION OF THE EXTENT OF
THE IMPACT ZONE OF THE PHENOMENON DURING THE LANDING. FREDDY SHOULD
MAINTAIN AT LEAST THE UPPER THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
ITS RAPID PATH TOWARDS MADAGASCAR.
AT THE END, AFTER A CLASSICAL WEAKENING OVER THE MALAGASY LANDS, THE
CENTRAL CORE OF FREDDY SHOULD RESTRUCTURE BEFORE A REINTENSIFICATION
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN MIXED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(OCEANIC POTENTIAL LESS RICH THAN OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN BASIN, AND
ESPECIALLY A STRENGTHENING OF THE SHEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE). IT COULD HOWEVER REACH THE STAGE OF STRONG STORM BEFORE
ITS LANDING ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE BY FRIDAY. ACCORDING TO THE
CMRS FORECAST, THE VORTEX SHOULD THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAND.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

- MADAGASCAR: LANDING EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING BETWEEN 15UTC AND
18UTC PROBABLY OVER THE NORTH OF THE PROVINCE OF VATOVANY-FITOVINANY.
* PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF THE GALE FROM TUESDAY 12UTC.
* VERY BIG TO HUGE SEA OFF THE COAST NEAR THE LANDING ZONE DURING
THE AFTERNOON OF TUESDAY (WAVES OF 9 TO 12M) WITH A SURGE ARRIVING
LATER AND MAY REACH 2M LOCALLY.
* INTENSE RAIN DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, CUMULATED RAINFALL COULD BE
AROUND 200 MM NEAR THE IMPACT AREA. WHEN THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE LAND,
THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN AROUND 100MM DURING THE EPISODE.

- MOZAMBIQUE : LANDING EXPECTED ON FRIDAY EARLY IN THE DAY PROBABLY
BETWEEN BEIRA AND MAXIXE.
* PROBABLE ARRIVAL OF THE GALE IN THE NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
AT THE COAST.
* HEAVY SEA NEAR THE LANDING ZONE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
* INTENSE RAINFALL RAPIDLY SPREADING INLAND WITH ACCUMULATIONS
LOCALLY EXCEEDING 300 MM IN 72 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210613 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 21/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 959 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 51.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHENR SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/21 AT 18 UTC:
20.9 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/22 AT 06 UTC:
21.6 S / 44.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210608
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/02/2023
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 21/02/2023 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FREDDY) 959 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 51.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHENR SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2023/02/21 AT 18 UTC:
20.9 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2023/02/22 AT 06 UTC:
21.6 S / 44.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 230221012309
2023022100 11S FREDDY 037 01 255 19 SATL 020
T000 198S 0530E 110 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 208S 0495E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040