Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23
in Guam

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 32N 141E
MOVE ENE 30KT
PRES 988HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 31.3N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 26KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 031500UTC 35.6N 148.2E 45NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 040300UTC 42.5N 160.2E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230603012511
2023060300 02W MAWAR 057 01 075 28 SATL SYNP 020
T000 307N 1381E 035 R034 150 NE QD 250 SE QD 215 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 342N 1451E 035 R034 180 NE QD 225 SE QD 180 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 385N 1531E 035 R034 280 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 30.7N 138.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 138.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 34.2N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 38.5N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 139.9E.
03JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME GROSSLY SHEARED/ELONGATED
AS IT TRACKED UNDER THE STRONG PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESITMATES. TS MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DETRIORATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
IT HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 12 WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD
THAT WILL BE INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE BAROCLINIC WIND FLOW.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS 02W WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR
BE ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC FLOW BEFORE TAU 12. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060300Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060112 258N1271E 50
0223060112 258N1271E 50
0223060118 266N1282E 50
0223060118 266N1282E 50
0223060200 275N1297E 45
0223060206 283N1313E 45
0223060212 292N1331E 45
0223060218 300N1350E 40
0223060300 307N1381E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 057
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 30.7N 138.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7N 138.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 34.2N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 38.5N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 139.9E.
03JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME GROSSLY SHEARED/ELONGATED
AS IT TRACKED UNDER THE STRONG PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. TS MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
IT HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 12 WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD
THAT WILL BE INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE BAROCLINIC WIND FLOW.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS 02W WILL DISSIPATE AND/OR
BE ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC FLOW BEFORE TAU 12. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060300Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.59 FOR TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 30.9N, 137.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 030000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 56
NAME LOW FROM 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 030000UTC 30.8N 137.8E
MOVEMENT ENE 23KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 30.9N 137.8E FAIR
MOVE ENE 26KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 031200UTC 34.1N 145.1E 45NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 040000UTC 41.6N 157.6E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 985 HPA
AT 30.9N 137.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 26 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 34.1N 145.1E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 41.6N 157.6E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 30.5N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030900UTC 33.3N 142.9E 30NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 032100UTC 39.0N 154.0E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230602190608
2023060218 02W MAWAR 056 01 065 18 SATL SYNP 020
T000 300N 1350E 040 R034 150 NE QD 250 SE QD 215 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 327N 1410E 035 R034 180 NE QD 225 SE QD 180 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 368N 1493E 035 R034 280 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 416N 1593E 035 R034 350 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 056
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 056
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 30.0N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 32.7N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 40 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 36.8N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 46 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 41.6N 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 30.7N 136.5E.
02JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
060218Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060112 258N1271E 50
0223060112 258N1271E 50
0223060118 266N1282E 50
0223060118 266N1282E 50
0223060200 275N1297E 45
0223060206 283N1313E 45
0223060212 292N1331E 45
0223060218 300N1350E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 056//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 056
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 30.0N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 32.7N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 40 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 36.8N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 46 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 41.6N 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 30.7N 136.5E.
02JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
060218Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.58 FOR TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 30.1N, 134.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 021800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 55
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 021800UTC 30.0N 134.9E
MOVEMENT ENE 22KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 030600UTC 32.4N 140.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 30.1N 134.9E FAIR
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030600UTC 32.5N 140.6E 30NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 031800UTC 36.5N 150.6E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 021800
WARNING 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 980 HPA
AT 30.1N 134.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 32.5N 140.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 36.5N 150.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 29.7N 133.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030300UTC 31.5N 138.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 031500UTC 35.3N 147.5E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230602133830
2023060212 02W MAWAR 055 01 060 18 SATL 030
T000 292N 1331E 045 R034 140 NE QD 250 SE QD 210 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 312N 1378E 045 R034 180 NE QD 225 SE QD 180 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 344N 1449E 040 R034 280 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 382N 1534E 040 R034 350 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 055
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 055
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 29.2N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 31.2N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 34.4N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 38.2N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 29.7N 134.3E.
02JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060212Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060112 258N1271E 50
0223060112 258N1271E 50
0223060118 266N1282E 50
0223060118 266N1282E 50
0223060200 275N1297E 45
0223060206 283N1313E 45
0223060212 292N1331E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 055//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 055
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 29.2N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 31.2N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 34.4N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 38.2N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 350 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 29.7N 134.3E.
02JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060212Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.57 FOR TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 29.3N, 132.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 021200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 54
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 021200UTC 29.0N 132.9E
MOVEMENT NE 16KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 030000UTC 31.3N 138.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 031200UTC 34.0N 143.9E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 29.3N 132.9E FAIR
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 030000UTC 30.7N 137.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 031200UTC 33.8N 144.5E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 980 HPA
AT 29.3N 132.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 30.7N 137.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 33.8N 144.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 28.6N 132.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 022100UTC 30.2N 136.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030900UTC 33.3N 142.3E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230602074317
2023060206 02W MAWAR 054 01 060 16 SATL 030
T000 283N 1313E 045 R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 299N 1352E 045 R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 322N 1406E 045 R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 354N 1478E 040 R034 265 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 065 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 054
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 054
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 28.3N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.9N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 32.2N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 35.4N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 132.3E.
02JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060206Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060112 258N1271E 50
0223060112 258N1271E 50
0223060118 266N1282E 50
0223060118 266N1282E 50
0223060200 275N1297E 45
0223060206 283N1313E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 054//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 054
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 28.3N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.9N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 32.2N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 35.4N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 132.3E.
02JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060206Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.56 FOR TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 28.2N, 131.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 020600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 53
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 020600UTC 27.9N 131.5E
MOVEMENT ENE 24KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 021800UTC 29.2N 135.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 030600UTC 32.5N 140.5E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 28.2N 131.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 021800UTC 29.7N 135.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030600UTC 32.7N 140.3E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 980 HPA
AT 28.2N 131.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 29.7N 135.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 32.7N 140.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 27.8N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 021500UTC 29.0N 134.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030300UTC 31.3N 138.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 040000UTC 37.2N 152.6E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230602013711
2023060200 02W MAWAR 053 01 060 13 SATL 040
T000 270N 1296E 045 R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 283N 1331E 045 R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 301N 1372E 045 R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 327N 1428E 040 R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 364N 1499E 040 R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 250 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 053
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 053
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 129.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.3N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 30.1N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 32.7N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 36.4N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 130.5E. 02JUN23.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
101 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060200Z IS 977 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060112 258N1271E 50
0223060112 258N1271E 50
0223060118 264N1283E 50
0223060118 264N1283E 50
0223060200 270N1296E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 053//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 053
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 129.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.3N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 30.1N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 32.7N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 36.4N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 130.5E. 02JUN23.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
101 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060200Z IS 977 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.55 FOR TS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 27.3N, 129.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 020000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 52
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 020000UTC 27.4N 129.6E
MOVEMENT ENE 13KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 021200UTC 28.3N 133.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 030000UTC 30.5N 137.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 031200UTC 33.0N 142.7E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2302 MAWAR (2302) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 27.3N 129.9E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 021200UTC 28.7N 133.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030000UTC 30.5N 137.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040000UTC 37.2N 152.6E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 27.3N 129.9E SEA AROUND OF OKINAWA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 28.7N 133.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 30.5N 137.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 37.2N 152.6E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 27.1N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020900UTC 28.5N 132.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 022100UTC 30.0N 136.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 031800UTC 35.1N 147.2E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 012100
WARNING 012100.
WARNING VALID 022100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 975 HPA
AT 27.1N 129.0E SEA AROUND OF OKINAWA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 28.5N 132.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 30.0N 136.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 052//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 052
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 26.4N 128.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 128.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.1N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 31.4N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 35.2N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 129.1E.
01JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 28 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060118Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.54 FOR STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 128.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 011800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 51
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 011800UTC 26.8N 128.1E
MOVEMENT NNE 15KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 020600UTC 28.1N 131.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 021800UTC 29.7N 134.9E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 030600UTC 31.8N 140.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 43KT
48HR
POSITION 031800UTC 34.9N 146.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 26.8N 128.1E GOOD
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020600UTC 28.1N 131.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 021800UTC 29.8N 135.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 031800UTC 35.1N 147.2E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 011800
WARNING 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 975 HPA
AT 26.8N 128.1E SEA AROUND OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 28.1N 131.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 29.8N 135.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 35.1N 147.2E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 26.3N 127.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020300UTC 27.7N 130.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 021500UTC 29.0N 133.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 031200UTC 32.8N 142.7E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 975 HPA
AT 26.3N 127.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 27.7N 130.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 29.0N 133.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 051//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 051
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 25.8N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 27.1N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.3N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 29.9N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 32.4N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 38.6N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 127.7E.
01JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 56 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 0112Z IS 974 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.53 FOR STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 26.0N, 127.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 011200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 50
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 011200UTC 25.8N 127.1E
MOVEMENT NE 12KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 020000UTC 27.3N 129.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 021200UTC 28.4N 132.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 030000UTC 29.9N 136.4E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 031200UTC 32.6N 142.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 26.0N 127.2E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 020000UTC 27.4N 129.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 021200UTC 28.6N 132.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 031200UTC 32.8N 142.7E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 975 HPA
AT 26.0N 127.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 27.4N 129.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 28.6N 132.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 32.8N 142.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 25.3N 126.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 012100UTC 27.1N 128.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 020900UTC 28.3N 131.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 030600UTC 30.4N 137.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 040600UTC 37.5N 154.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 010900
WARNING 010900.
WARNING VALID 020900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 975 HPA
AT 25.3N 126.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 27.1N 128.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 28.3N 131.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010600
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230601073323
2023060106 02W MAWAR 050 01 025 09 SATL RADR 020
T000 250N 1262E 050 R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 210 SE QD 175 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T012 265N 1280E 050 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 115 NW QD
T024 277N 1307E 045 R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 291N 1341E 045 R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 313N 1390E 045 R034 190 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 380N 1533E 040 R034 150 NE QD 200 SE QD 255 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 050
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 050
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.5N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.7N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.1N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 31.3N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 38.0N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 126.7E.
01JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060106Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060106 250N1262E 50

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 050//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 050
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.5N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.7N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.1N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 31.3N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 38.0N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 126.7E.
01JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060106Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230601073323
2023060106 02W MAWAR 050 01 025 09 SATL RADR 020
T000 250N 1262E 050 R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 210 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 265N 1280E 050 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 277N 1307E 045 R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 291N 1341E 045 R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 313N 1390E 045 R034 190 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 380N 1533E 040 R034 150 NE QD 200 SE QD 255 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 050
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 050
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.5N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.7N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.1N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 31.3N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 38.0N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 126.7E.
01JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060106Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060100 242N1258E 55
0223060106 250N1262E 50
0223060106 250N1262E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 050//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 050
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.5N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.7N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.1N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 31.3N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 38.0N 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 126.7E.
01JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060106Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.52 FOR STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 25.0N, 126.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS, LOW
TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT24 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 010600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 49
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 010600UTC 25.0N 126.2E
MOVEMENT NNE 10KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 011800UTC 26.6N 127.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 020600UTC 27.5N 130.3E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 021800UTC 28.3N 133.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 030600UTC 30.3N 137.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
72HR
POSITION 040600UTC 36.4N 151.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 25.0N 126.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 011800UTC 26.6N 128.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 020600UTC 27.8N 130.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 030600UTC 30.4N 137.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 040600UTC 37.5N 154.7E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 975 HPA
AT 25.0N 126.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 26.6N 128.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 27.8N 130.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 30.4N 137.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 37.5N 154.7E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 010300
WARNING 010300.
WARNING VALID 020300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 970 HPA
AT 24.5N 125.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 26.5N 127.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 27.5N 130.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 24.5N 125.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 350NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 011500UTC 26.5N 127.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 020300UTC 27.5N 130.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 030000UTC 29.4N 135.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 040000UTC 35.1N 149.8E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230601010821
2023060100 02W MAWAR 049 01 020 08 SATL RADR 010
T000 242N 1259E 055 R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 259N 1273E 050 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 272N 1295E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 140 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 282N 1325E 045 R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 299N 1363E 045 R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 351N 1481E 040 R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 230 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 049
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 049
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 24.2N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.9N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 27.2N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.2N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 29.9N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 35.1N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 126.3E.
01JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060100Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND
020300Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223060100 242N1259E 55
0223060100 242N1259E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 049//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 049
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 24.2N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.9N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 27.2N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.2N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 29.9N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 35.1N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 126.3E.
01JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060100Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND
020300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.51 FOR STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 24.1N, 125.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, LOW
TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 010000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 48
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 010000UTC 24.1N 125.8E
MOVEMENT NNE 7KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 011200UTC 25.7N 126.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 020000UTC 26.9N 128.9E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 021200UTC 27.8N 131.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 030000UTC 29.1N 135.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
72HR
POSITION 040000UTC 34.5N 146.0E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 24.1N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 011200UTC 26.2N 127.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 020000UTC 27.2N 129.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 030000UTC 29.4N 135.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 040000UTC 35.1N 149.8E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 010000
WARNING 010000.
WARNING VALID 020000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 970 HPA
AT 24.1N 125.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 26.2N 127.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 27.2N 129.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 29.4N 135.8E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 35.1N 149.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 312100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 312100UTC 23.8N 125.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 010900UTC 25.8N 126.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 012100UTC 27.0N 128.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 021800UTC 28.5N 133.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 031800UTC 32.8N 143.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 312100
WARNING 312100.
WARNING VALID 012100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 970 HPA
AT 23.8N 125.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 25.8N 126.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 27.0N 128.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230531192847
2023053118 02W MAWAR 048 01 005 08 SATL RADR 010
T000 235N 1256E 060 R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 252N 1266E 055 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 266N 1284E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 277N 1310E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 290N 1342E 045 R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 110 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 340N 1436E 045 R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 048
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 048
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.2N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.6N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.7N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 34.0N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 125.9E.
31MAY23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023053118Z IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053118 235N1256E 60
0223053118 235N1256E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 048
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 23.5N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.2N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.6N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.7N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 34.0N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 125.9E.
31MAY23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023053118Z IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 311800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.50 FOR STS 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 125.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK VWS, LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 311800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 47
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 311800UTC 23.4N 125.6E
MOVEMENT N 8KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 010600UTC 24.8N 126.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 011800UTC 26.1N 127.6E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 020600UTC 26.7N 129.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 021800UTC 27.9N 132.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 031800UTC 31.6N 140.1E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 311800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2302 MAWAR (2302) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311800UTC 23.4N 125.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 010600UTC 25.2N 126.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 011800UTC 26.7N 127.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 021800UTC 28.5N 133.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 031800UTC 32.8N 143.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 311800
WARNING 311800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 970
HPA
AT 23.4N 125.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 25.2N 126.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 26.7N 127.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 28.5N 133.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 32.8N 143.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 965 HPA
AT 23.0N 125.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 24.6N 125.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 26.0N 127.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 311500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311500UTC 23.0N 125.5E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 425NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 010300UTC 24.6N 125.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 011500UTC 26.0N 127.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 021200UTC 27.2N 131.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 031200UTC 30.4N 137.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 041200UTC 35.5N 148.6E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230531133025
2023053112 02W MAWAR 047 01 015 04 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 227N 1255E 065 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 240N 1259E 060 R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 145 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T024 256N 1270E 055 R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 145 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T036 265N 1293E 050 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T048 274N 1318E 050 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T072 303N 1377E 045 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 355N 1479E 045 R034 070 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 047
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.0N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.6N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 26.5N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 27.4N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 30.3N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 35.5N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 125.6E.
31MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023053112Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND
011500Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053100 218N1253E 70
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053106 223N1254E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65
0223053112 227N1255E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.0N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.6N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 26.5N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 27.4N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 30.3N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 35.5N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 125.6E.
31MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023053112Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND
011500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.49 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 22.7N, 125.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK VWS, LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 311200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 46
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 311200UTC 22.7N 125.4E
MOVEMENT N 4KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 010000UTC 24.2N 125.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 011200UTC 25.3N 126.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 020000UTC 26.1N 128.1E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 021200UTC 27.2N 131.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 031200UTC 30.1N 137.1E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 041200UTC 35.6N 147.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 22.7N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 010000UTC 24.2N 125.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 011200UTC 25.8N 126.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 021200UTC 27.2N 131.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 031200UTC 30.4N 137.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 041200UTC 35.5N 148.6E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 311200
WARNING 311200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 965 HPA
AT 22.7N 125.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 24.2N 125.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 25.8N 126.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 27.2N 131.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 30.4N 137.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 35.5N 148.6E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 310900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310900UTC 22.5N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 312100UTC 23.7N 125.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 010900UTC 25.3N 126.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 020600UTC 26.7N 129.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 030600UTC 29.2N 135.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 040600UTC 33.9N 144.7E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 310900
WARNING 310900.
WARNING VALID 010900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 965 HPA
AT 22.5N 125.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 312100UTC AT 23.7N 125.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 25.3N 126.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230531072505
2023053106 02W MAWAR 046 01 010 05 SATL RADR 020
T000 223N 1253E 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 155 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 234N 1257E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 247N 1266E 055 R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 260N 1282E 050 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 273N 1304E 050 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 296N 1353E 045 R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 339N 1435E 045 R034 090 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 401N 1546E 045 R034 030 NE QD 290 SE QD 320 SW QD 010 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 046
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 22.3N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.4N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.7N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.0N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.3N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 29.6N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 33.9N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 40.1N 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 125.4E.
31MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023053106Z
IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053012 208N1250E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053018 213N1251E 70
0223053100 218N1252E 70
0223053100 218N1252E 70
0223053100 218N1252E 70
0223053106 223N1253E 65
0223053106 223N1253E 65
0223053106 223N1253E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 046//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 22.3N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.4N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.7N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.0N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.3N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 29.6N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 33.9N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 40.1N 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 125.4E.
31MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023053106Z
IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.48 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 22.2N, 125.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 310600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 45
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 310600UTC 22.2N 125.3E
MOVEMENT NNE 9KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 311800UTC 23.6N 125.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 010600UTC 24.8N 126.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 011800UTC 25.8N 127.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 020600UTC 26.6N 129.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 030600UTC 28.9N 134.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 040600UTC 33.4N 144.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
120HR
POSITION 050600UTC 38.4N 152.9E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 22.2N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 24.9N 126.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 020600UTC 26.7N 129.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 030600UTC 29.2N 135.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 040600UTC 33.9N 144.7E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 310600
WARNING 310600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 965 HPA
AT 22.2N 125.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 24.9N 126.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 26.7N 129.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 29.2N 135.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 33.9N 144.7E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 310300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310300UTC 21.8N 125.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 375NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 24.5N 125.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 020000UTC 26.6N 128.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 030000UTC 28.1N 133.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 040000UTC 31.6N 140.2E 230NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 050000UTC 37.4N 153.4E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 310300
WARNING 310300.
WARNING VALID 010300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 965 HPA
AT 21.8N 125.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 24.5N 125.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.47 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 21.4N, 125.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF A BAND
WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230531005716
2023053100 02W MAWAR 045 01 025 04 SATL SYNP 020
T000 215N 1252E 060 R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 224N 1253E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 237N 1259E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 251N 1270E 045 R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 263N 1287E 045 R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 283N 1333E 045 R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 323N 1413E 045 R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 374N 1504E 045 R034 110 NE QD 210 SE QD 240 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 045
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 045
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.7N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.1N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 26.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.3N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 32.3N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 37.4N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 125.2E.
31MAY23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPANN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 053100Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z
AND 010300Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 207N1250E 70
0223053012 207N1250E 70
0223053012 207N1250E 70
0223053018 211N1250E 65
0223053018 211N1250E 65
0223053018 211N1250E 65
0223053100 215N1252E 60
0223053100 215N1252E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 045
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.4N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.7N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.1N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 26.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.3N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 32.3N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 37.4N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 125.2E.
31MAY23. TROPICAL STORM 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPANN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 053100Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z
AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 310145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 310000 UTC, TYPHOON MAWAR (2302) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE TWO FIVE
POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (125.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TYPHOON WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (125.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC
TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (128.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N)
ONE THREE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (133.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE THREE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (138.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 310000 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 21.4N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 375NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 24.0N 125.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 020000UTC 26.6N 128.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 030000UTC 28.1N 133.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 040000UTC 31.6N 140.2E 230NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 050000UTC 37.4N 153.4E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 310000 CCA
WARNING 310000.
WARNING VALID 010000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 965 HPA
AT 21.4N 125.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 24.0N 125.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 26.6N 128.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 28.1N 133.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 31.6N 140.2E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 37.4N 153.4E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 310000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 44
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 310000UTC 21.4N 125.1E
MOVEMENT NNE 4KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 311200UTC 22.7N 125.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 010000UTC 24.1N 125.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 011200UTC 25.4N 126.7E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 020000UTC 26.3N 128.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 030000UTC 27.8N 132.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 040000UTC 30.9N 139.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
120HR
POSITION 050000UTC 36.8N 150.1E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 21.4N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 375NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 24.0N 125.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 020000UTC 26.6N 128.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 030000UTC 28.1N 133.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 040000UTC 31.6N 140.2E 230NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 050000UTC 37.4N 153.4E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 310000
WARNING 310000.
WARNING VALID 010000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 965 HPA
AT 21.4N 125.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 24.0N 125.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 26.6N 128.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 28.1N 133.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 31.6N 140.2E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 37.4N 153.4E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 302245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 302100 UTC, TYPHOON MAWAR (2302) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE TWO FIVE
POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC
TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (125.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC
TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (26.3 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (127.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (132.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (30.4 N)
ONE THREE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (137.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC
THREE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (32.0 N)
ONE FOUR ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (140.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 21.3N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 375NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 312100UTC 23.6N 125.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 011800UTC 26.1N 127.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 021800UTC 27.6N 131.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 031800UTC 29.4N 136.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 041800UTC 34.0N 145.3E 360NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 302100
WARNING 302100.
WARNING VALID 312100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 965 HPA
AT 21.3N 125.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 312100UTC AT 23.6N 125.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230530185042
2023053018 02W MAWAR 044 01 360 04 SATL SYNP 020
T000 211N 1250E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 219N 1252E 060 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 190 NW QD
T024 230N 1255E 055 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 180 NW QD
T036 244N 1263E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T048 257N 1278E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T072 278N 1321E 045 R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 311N 1389E 045 R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 373N 1500E 045 R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 220 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 044
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.0N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.4N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.7N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.8N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 31.1N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 37.3N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 125.0E.
30MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
053018Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 207N1250E 70
0223053012 207N1250E 70
0223053012 207N1250E 70
0223053018 211N1250E 65
0223053018 211N1250E 65
0223053018 211N1250E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.0N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.4N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.7N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.8N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 31.1N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 37.3N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 125.0E.
30MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
053018Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 301945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 301800 UTC, TYPHOON MAWAR (2302) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT
NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC
TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (23.3 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (125.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC
TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (26.0 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (127.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (131.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N)
ONE THREE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (135.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (31.9 N)
ONE FOUR ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (140.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.46 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 21.1N, 124.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE
CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP
AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 301800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 43
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 301800UTC 21.1N 124.9E
MOVEMENT N 3KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 310600UTC 22.1N 125.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 311800UTC 23.2N 125.3E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 010600UTC 24.5N 126.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 011800UTC 25.4N 127.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 021800UTC 26.9N 129.8E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 031800UTC 28.5N 134.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
120HR
POSITION 041800UTC 32.0N 141.0E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 21.1N 124.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 375NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 23.3N 125.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 011800UTC 26.1N 127.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 021800UTC 27.6N 131.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 031800UTC 29.4N 136.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 041800UTC 34.0N 145.3E 360NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 965 HPA
AT 21.1N 124.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 23.3N 125.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 26.1N 127.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 27.6N 131.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 29.4N 136.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 34.0N 145.3E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 301645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 301500 UTC, TYPHOON MAWAR (2302) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE TWO FIVE
POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC
TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (22.9 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (125.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (25.5 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (126.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC
TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (129.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (132.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (30.1 N)
ONE THREE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (135.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 21.0N 124.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 311500UTC 22.9N 125.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 011200UTC 25.2N 126.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 021200UTC 26.7N 129.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 031200UTC 27.8N 132.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 041200UTC 31.7N 139.5E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 301500
WARNING 301500.
WARNING VALID 311500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 960 HPA
AT 21.0N 124.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311500UTC AT 22.9N 125.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230530132747
2023053012 02W MAWAR 043 01 360 02 SATL 030
T000 207N 1250E 070 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 195 SE QD 185 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 214N 1250E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 221N 1252E 065 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 232N 1254E 060 R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 244N 1262E 055 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 261N 1287E 050 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 275N 1322E 045 R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 306N 1371E 045 R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 043
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.4N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.2N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.4N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.1N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.5N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.6N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 125.0E.
30MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023053012Z IS
972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053012 207N1250E 70
0223053012 207N1250E 70
0223053012 207N1250E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.4N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.2N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.4N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.1N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.5N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.6N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 125.0E.
30MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023053012Z IS
972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 301345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 301200 UTC, TYPHOON MAWAR (2302) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE TWO FIVE
POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC
TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (125.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (25.2 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (126.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (129.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (27.6 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (132.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC
TWO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (29.8 N)
ONE THREE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (134.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.45 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 20.8N, 125.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT
LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 301200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 42
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 301200UTC 20.8N 125.0E
MOVEMENT NE 3KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 310000UTC 21.4N 125.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 311200UTC 22.1N 125.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 010000UTC 22.9N 125.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 011200UTC 24.0N 125.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 021200UTC 26.1N 127.6E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 031200UTC 27.7N 131.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 041200UTC 30.4N 137.1E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 20.8N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 22.6N 125.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 011200UTC 25.2N 126.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 021200UTC 26.7N 129.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 031200UTC 27.8N 132.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 041200UTC 31.7N 139.5E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 301200
WARNING 301200.
WARNING VALID 311200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 960 HPA
AT 20.8N 125.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 22.6N 125.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 25.2N 126.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 26.7N 129.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 27.8N 132.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 31.7N 139.5E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 301045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 300900 UTC, TYPHOON MAWAR (2302) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE TWO FIVE
POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310900 UTC
TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (125.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (126.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (26.6 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (129.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N)
ONE THREE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (131.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC
TWO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (29.5 N)
ONE THREE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (134.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 300745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 300600 UTC, THE TYPHOON MAWAR (2302) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE TWO
FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310600 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (125.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (125.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC
TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (128.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC
TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N)
ONE THREE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (130.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (28.7 N)
ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (132.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 20.6N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310900UTC 22.4N 125.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 010600UTC 24.6N 126.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 020600UTC 26.0N 127.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 030600UTC 27.1N 130.6E 170NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 040600UTC 30.4N 137.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 300900
WARNING 300900.
WARNING VALID 310900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 20.6N 125.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310900UTC AT 22.4N 125.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230530072608
2023053006 02W MAWAR 042 01 335 02 SATL 020
T000 205N 1250E 075 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 195 SE QD 185 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 212N 1249E 070 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 219N 1250E 065 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 228N 1253E 060 R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 238N 1258E 055 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 257N 1278E 050 R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 273N 1310E 045 R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 297N 1353E 045 R034 200 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 042
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.7N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.3N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 29.7N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 125.0E.
30MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023053006Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND
310900Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053000 203N1251E 80
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
0223053006 205N1250E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.7N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.3N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 29.7N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 125.0E.
30MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023053006Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND
310900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.44 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 20.6N, 125.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT
LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 300600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 41
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 300600UTC 20.6N 125.0E
MOVEMENT N 2KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 301800UTC 21.0N 124.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 310600UTC 21.7N 124.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 311800UTC 22.5N 124.9E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 010600UTC 23.6N 125.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 020600UTC 25.7N 127.0E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 030600UTC 27.2N 130.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 040600UTC 29.3N 135.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 20.6N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 22.2N 125.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 010600UTC 24.6N 126.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 020600UTC 26.0N 127.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 030600UTC 27.1N 130.6E 170NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 040600UTC 30.4N 137.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 310600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 20.6N 125.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 22.2N 125.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 24.6N 126.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 26.0N 127.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 27.1N 130.6E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 30.4N 137.0E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 300445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 300300 UTC, THE TYPHOON MAWAR (2302) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC
TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (125.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (25.5 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (126.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC
TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (26.1 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (128.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (129.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 20.5N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310300UTC 22.0N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 010000UTC 23.6N 125.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 020000UTC 25.7N 127.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 030000UTC 26.7N 129.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 040000UTC 29.8N 135.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 300300
WARNING 300300.
WARNING VALID 310300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 20.5N 125.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310300UTC AT 22.0N 125.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230530011216
2023053000 02W MAWAR 041 01 315 04 SATL 015
T000 204N 1251E 080 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 210N 1249E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 217N 1249E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 224N 1251E 065 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 235N 1255E 060 R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 254N 1270E 050 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 269N 1295E 045 R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 289N 1334E 045 R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 041
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.4N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.4N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.9N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 28.9N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 125.1E.
30MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023053000Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223053000 204N1251E 80
0223053000 204N1251E 80
0223053000 204N1251E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.4N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.4N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.9N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 28.9N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 125.1E.
30MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023053000Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.43 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 20.4N, 125.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 300000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 40
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 300000UTC 20.4N 125.1E
MOVEMENT NNW 5KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 301200UTC 20.8N 124.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 310000UTC 21.4N 124.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 311200UTC 22.1N 124.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 010000UTC 23.1N 125.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 020000UTC 25.3N 126.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 030000UTC 26.7N 129.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 040000UTC 28.4N 133.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 20.4N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 21.8N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 010000UTC 23.6N 125.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 020000UTC 25.7N 127.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 030000UTC 26.7N 129.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 040000UTC 29.8N 135.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 300000
WARNING 300000.
WARNING VALID 310000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 20.4N 125.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 21.8N 125.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 23.6N 125.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 25.7N 127.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 26.7N 129.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 29.8N 135.1E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 20.2N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 302100UTC 21.4N 125.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 311800UTC 22.7N 125.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 011800UTC 25.1N 126.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 021800UTC 26.3N 128.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 031800UTC 28.4N 132.9E 240NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 292100
WARNING 292100.
WARNING VALID 302100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 20.2N 125.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 21.4N 125.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 20.1N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.9N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.8N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.3N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.0N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 125.3E.
29MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052918Z IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z,
300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 292100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230529190852
2023052918 02W MAWAR 040 01 335 04 SATL SYNP 015
T000 201N 1254E 090 R064 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 207N 1251E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 213N 1249E 075 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 219N 1249E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 228N 1251E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 248N 1261E 055 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 263N 1282E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 280N 1316E 045 R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 040
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 20.1N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.9N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.8N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.3N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.0N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 125.3E.
29MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052918Z IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z,
300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
0223052918 201N1254E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.42 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 20.1N, 125.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS
DISAPPEARED. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 291800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 39
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 291800UTC 20.1N 125.4E
MOVEMENT NNW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 300600UTC 20.6N 125.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 301800UTC 21.0N 124.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 310600UTC 21.8N 124.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 311800UTC 22.6N 124.9E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 011800UTC 24.9N 126.0E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
96HR
POSITION 021800UTC 26.1N 127.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 031800UTC 27.0N 130.1E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 20.1N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 21.1N 125.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 311800UTC 22.7N 125.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 011800UTC 25.1N 126.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 021800UTC 26.3N 128.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 031800UTC 28.4N 132.9E 240NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 291800
WARNING 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 20.1N 125.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 21.1N 125.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 22.7N 125.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 25.1N 126.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 26.3N 128.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 28.4N 132.9E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 291500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291500UTC 19.8N 125.6E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 375NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301500UTC 21.1N 124.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 311200UTC 22.0N 124.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 011200UTC 24.6N 125.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 021200UTC 26.1N 127.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 031200UTC 27.1N 130.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 19.8N 125.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 21.1N 124.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 291500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230529131835
2023052912 02W MAWAR 039 01 330 04 SATL 030
T000 197N 1256E 100 R064 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 203N 1252E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
T024 209N 1249E 080 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 230 NW QD
T036 214N 1247E 075 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 222N 1248E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 239N 1253E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 255N 1268E 055 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T120 267N 1293E 045 R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 039
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.3N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.9N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.7N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 125.5E.
29MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052912Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100
0223052912 197N1256E 100

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.3N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.9N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.7N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 125.5E.
29MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052912Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.41 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 19.7N, 125.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOWER SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 291200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 38
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 291200UTC 19.7N 125.6E
MOVEMENT NNW 2KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 300000UTC 20.4N 125.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 301200UTC 20.9N 124.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 310000UTC 21.4N 124.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 311200UTC 22.1N 124.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 011200UTC 24.4N 125.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 021200UTC 25.9N 127.3E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 031200UTC 27.0N 129.7E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 19.7N 125.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 21.0N 124.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 311200UTC 22.0N 124.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 011200UTC 24.6N 125.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 021200UTC 26.1N 127.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 031200UTC 27.1N 130.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 19.7N 125.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 21.0N 124.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 22.0N 124.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 24.6N 125.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 26.1N 127.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 27.1N 130.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 19.6N 125.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300900UTC 20.8N 124.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 310600UTC 21.7N 124.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 010600UTC 24.0N 124.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 020600UTC 26.1N 127.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 030600UTC 27.3N 130.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 19.6N 125.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 20.8N 124.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 290900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230529074204
2023052906 02W MAWAR 038 01 310 05 SATL 030
T000 194N 1258E 105 R064 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 210 NW QD
T012 200N 1251E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
T024 207N 1249E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 230 NW QD
T036 212N 1248E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 218N 1247E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 234N 1247E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 250N 1261E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 264N 1286E 045 R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 038
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.4N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 125.6E.
29MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052906Z IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052818 185N1268E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
0223052906 194N1258E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.4N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 125.6E.
29MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052906Z IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.40 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 19.4N, 125.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 290600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 37
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 290600UTC 19.5N 125.8E
MOVEMENT NW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 291800UTC 20.1N 125.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 300600UTC 20.7N 124.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 301800UTC 21.3N 124.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 310600UTC 22.1N 124.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 010600UTC 23.8N 124.6E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 020600UTC 25.5N 126.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 030600UTC 26.8N 128.4E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 19.4N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 20.7N 124.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 310600UTC 21.7N 124.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 010600UTC 24.0N 124.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 020600UTC 26.1N 127.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 030600UTC 27.3N 130.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 290600
WARNING 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 19.4N 125.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 20.7N 124.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 21.7N 124.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 24.0N 124.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 26.1N 127.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 27.3N 130.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 19.2N 126.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300300UTC 20.5N 124.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 310000UTC 21.3N 124.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 010000UTC 23.1N 124.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 020000UTC 25.5N 125.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 030000UTC 26.9N 127.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 290300
WARNING 290300.
WARNING VALID 300300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 19.2N 126.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 20.5N 124.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 290300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230529010613
2023052900 02W MAWAR 037 01 310 09 SATL 015
T000 191N 1262E 105 R064 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 145 SE QD 165 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 200N 1253E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 205N 1247E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 230 NW QD
T036 209N 1244E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 215N 1242E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 230 NW QD
T072 232N 1243E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 251N 1254E 055 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 265N 1272E 045 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 037
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.0N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.2N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.1N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 126.0E.
29MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052900Z
IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 43 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.0N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.2N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.1N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 126.0E.
29MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052900Z
IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 43 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.39 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 19.0N, 126.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 290000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 36
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 290000UTC 19.1N 126.1E
MOVEMENT NW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 291200UTC 19.8N 125.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 300000UTC 20.1N 124.6E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 301200UTC 20.4N 124.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 310000UTC 20.8N 124.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 010000UTC 22.2N 124.2E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 020000UTC 24.3N 124.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 030000UTC 25.9N 126.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 19.0N 126.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 20.4N 124.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 310000UTC 21.3N 124.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 010000UTC 23.1N 124.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 020000UTC 25.5N 125.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 030000UTC 26.9N 127.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 290000
WARNING 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 19.0N 126.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 20.4N 124.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 21.3N 124.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 23.1N 124.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 25.5N 125.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 26.9N 127.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 18.8N 126.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 20.1N 124.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 301800UTC 20.6N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 311800UTC 22.1N 124.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 011800UTC 24.6N 124.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 021800UTC 26.2N 126.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 282100
WARNING 282100.
WARNING VALID 292100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 18.8N 126.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 20.1N 124.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 282100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230528191513
2023052818 02W MAWAR 036 01 330 07 SATL 015
T000 185N 1269E 105 R064 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 145 SE QD 165 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 195N 1258E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 200N 1251E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 204N 1247E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 210N 1245E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 224N 1243E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 244N 1249E 055 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 259N 1264E 045 R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 036
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.0N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.4N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 126.6E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052818Z IS
950 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.0N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.4N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 126.6E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052818Z IS
950 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 281800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 35
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 281800UTC 18.6N 126.7E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.6N 125.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 291800UTC 20.0N 124.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 300600UTC 20.3N 124.4E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 301800UTC 20.6N 124.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 311800UTC 21.8N 124.1E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 011800UTC 23.8N 124.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 021800UTC 25.6N 125.9E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.38 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 18.6N, 126.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 18.6N 126.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 20.0N 125.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 301800UTC 20.6N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 311800UTC 22.1N 124.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 011800UTC 24.6N 124.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 021800UTC 26.2N 126.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 18.6N 126.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 20.0N 125.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 20.6N 124.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 22.1N 124.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 24.6N 124.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 26.2N 126.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 18.2N 127.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 425NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 19.8N 124.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 301200UTC 20.3N 124.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 311200UTC 21.3N 124.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 011200UTC 23.4N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 021200UTC 25.3N 124.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 281500
WARNING 281500.
WARNING VALID 291500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 18.2N 127.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 19.8N 124.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230528131336
2023052812 02W MAWAR 035 01 305 07 SATL 015
T000 179N 1273E 105 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 205 NW QD
T012 186N 1260E 105 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 192N 1251E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 196N 1245E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 201N 1241E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 212N 1238E 075 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 227N 1241E 065 R064 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 241N 1247E 055 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 035
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 127.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.6N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.2N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.6N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.1N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 127.0E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 517 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052812Z IS
952 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 127.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.6N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.2N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.6N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.1N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 127.0E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 517 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052812Z IS
952 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 281200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 34
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 281200UTC 18.0N 127.3E
MOVEMENT NW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 290000UTC 18.7N 125.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 291200UTC 19.3N 124.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 300000UTC 19.7N 124.1E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 301200UTC 20.1N 123.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 311200UTC 20.9N 123.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 011200UTC 22.6N 124.1E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 021200UTC 24.6N 124.9E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 127.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 17.9N 127.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 425NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 19.6N 125.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 301200UTC 20.3N 124.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 311200UTC 21.3N 124.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 011200UTC 23.4N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 021200UTC 25.3N 124.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 281200
WARNING 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 17.9N 127.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 19.6N 125.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 20.3N 124.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 21.3N 124.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 23.4N 124.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 25.3N 124.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230528070628
2023052806 02W MAWAR 034 01 290 09 SATL 015
T000 175N 1279E 105 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 182N 1264E 100 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 185 SW QD 205 NW QD
T024 189N 1253E 095 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 194N 1246E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 198N 1240E 085 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 240 SW QD 230 NW QD
T072 208N 1236E 075 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 230 NW QD
T096 221N 1238E 065 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 220 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 232N 1241E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 220 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 034
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.2N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.8N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.1N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.2N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 127.5E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z,
290300Z AND 290900Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 17.8N 127.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 425NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 282100UTC 18.7N 126.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 290900UTC 19.5N 125.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 300600UTC 20.0N 124.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 310600UTC 20.9N 123.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 010600UTC 22.8N 123.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 020600UTC 25.0N 124.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 280900
WARNING 280900.
WARNING VALID 290900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 17.8N 127.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 18.7N 126.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 19.5N 125.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 034//
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.2N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.8N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.1N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.2N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 127.5E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z,
290300Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 17.6N, 128.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 280600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 33
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 280600UTC 17.6N 127.9E
MOVEMENT WNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.4N 126.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.1N 125.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 291800UTC 19.6N 124.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 300600UTC 20.0N 123.9E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 310600UTC 20.9N 123.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 010600UTC 22.3N 124.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 020600UTC 24.0N 124.6E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 17.6N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 425NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281800UTC 18.4N 126.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 290600UTC 19.3N 125.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 300600UTC 20.0N 124.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 310600UTC 20.9N 123.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 010600UTC 22.8N 123.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 020600UTC 25.0N 124.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 17.6N 128.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 18.4N 126.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 19.3N 125.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 20.0N 124.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 20.9N 123.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 22.8N 123.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 25.0N 124.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 17.4N 128.4E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 425NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281500UTC 18.2N 126.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 290300UTC 19.0N 125.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 300000UTC 19.9N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 310000UTC 20.9N 123.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 010000UTC 22.3N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 020000UTC 24.2N 124.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 280300
WARNING 280300.
WARNING VALID 290300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 17.4N 128.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 18.2N 126.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 19.0N 125.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 17.3N, 128.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 280000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 32
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 280000UTC 17.3N 128.7E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.0N 127.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
24HR
POSITION 290000UTC 18.8N 125.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 291200UTC 19.4N 124.7E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 300000UTC 19.8N 124.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 310000UTC 20.6N 123.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 010000UTC 21.8N 123.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 020000UTC 23.7N 124.5E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 17.3N 128.7E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281200UTC 18.1N 127.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 290000UTC 18.9N 125.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 300000UTC 19.9N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 310000UTC 20.9N 123.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 010000UTC 22.3N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 020000UTC 24.2N 124.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 280000
WARNING 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 17.3N 128.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 18.1N 127.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 18.9N 125.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 19.9N 124.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 20.9N 123.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 22.3N 123.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 24.2N 124.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 17.2N 129.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280900UTC 18.0N 127.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 282100UTC 18.8N 125.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 291800UTC 19.9N 124.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 301800UTC 20.5N 123.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 311800UTC 21.8N 123.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 011800UTC 23.4N 123.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 272100
WARNING 272100.
WARNING VALID 282100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 17.2N 129.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 18.0N 127.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 18.8N 125.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 129.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 271800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 31
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 271800UTC 17.1N 129.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 280600UTC 17.8N 127.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
24HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.6N 126.3E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
36HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.1N 125.4E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
48HR
POSITION 291800UTC 19.9N 124.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
72HR
POSITION 301800UTC 20.6N 123.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
96HR
POSITION 311800UTC 21.8N 123.7E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 011800UTC 23.4N 123.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 17.1N 129.7E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280600UTC 17.7N 127.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 281800UTC 18.5N 126.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 291800UTC 19.9N 124.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 301800UTC 20.5N 123.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 311800UTC 21.8N 123.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 011800UTC 23.4N 123.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 271800
WARNING 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 17.1N 129.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 17.7N 127.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 18.5N 126.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 19.9N 124.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 20.5N 123.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 21.8N 123.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 23.4N 123.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 271500
WARNING 271500.
WARNING VALID 281500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 16.9N 130.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 17.5N 128.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 18.3N 126.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 16.9N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280300UTC 17.5N 128.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 281500UTC 18.3N 126.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 291200UTC 19.6N 124.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 301200UTC 20.5N 123.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 311200UTC 21.8N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 011200UTC 23.5N 124.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 130.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 271200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 30
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 271200UTC 16.8N 130.9E
MOVEMENT W 14KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.5N 128.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
24HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.3N 127.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
36HR
POSITION 290000UTC 19.0N 126.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
48HR
POSITION 291200UTC 19.7N 125.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
72HR
POSITION 301200UTC 21.0N 124.2E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 311200UTC 22.1N 124.7E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 011200UTC 23.4N 125.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 16.8N 130.9E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280000UTC 17.3N 128.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 281200UTC 18.1N 127.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 291200UTC 19.6N 124.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 301200UTC 20.5N 123.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 311200UTC 21.8N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 011200UTC 23.5N 124.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 271200
WARNING 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 16.8N 130.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 17.3N 128.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 18.1N 127.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 19.6N 124.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 20.5N 123.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 21.8N 124.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 23.5N 124.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 16.8N 131.6E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 272100UTC 17.1N 129.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 280900UTC 17.9N 127.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 290600UTC 19.4N 125.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 300600UTC 20.3N 124.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 310600UTC 21.7N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 010600UTC 23.4N 124.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 270900
WARNING 270900.
WARNING VALID 280900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 925 HPA
AT 16.8N 131.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 17.1N 129.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 17.9N 127.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 132.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 270600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 270600UTC 16.7N 132.2E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.2N 129.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 280600UTC 17.9N 127.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
36HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.6N 126.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
48HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.4N 125.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
72HR
POSITION 300600UTC 20.7N 124.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 310600UTC 21.8N 124.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 010600UTC 23.3N 125.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 16.6N 132.2E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 271800UTC 17.0N 129.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 280600UTC 17.7N 127.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 290600UTC 19.4N 125.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 300600UTC 20.3N 124.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 310600UTC 21.7N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 010600UTC 23.4N 124.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 925 HPA
AT 16.6N 132.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.0N 129.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 17.7N 127.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 19.4N 125.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 20.3N 124.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 21.7N 124.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 23.4N 124.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 270300
WARNING 270300.
WARNING VALID 280300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 925 HPA
AT 16.5N 132.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 16.9N 130.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 17.5N 128.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 16.5N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 271500UTC 16.9N 130.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 280300UTC 17.5N 128.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 290000UTC 19.0N 125.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 300000UTC 20.3N 124.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 310000UTC 21.6N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 010000UTC 23.0N 125.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 16.4N, 133.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 270000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 270000UTC 16.4N 133.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 16KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 271200UTC 16.9N 130.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
24HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.5N 128.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
36HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.3N 127.1E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
48HR
POSITION 290000UTC 19.0N 126.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 300000UTC 20.4N 124.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 310000UTC 21.5N 124.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 010000UTC 22.8N 125.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 16.4N 133.5E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 271200UTC 16.8N 130.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 280000UTC 17.4N 128.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 290000UTC 19.0N 125.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 300000UTC 20.3N 124.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 310000UTC 21.6N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 010000UTC 23.0N 125.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 270000
WARNING 270000.
WARNING VALID 280000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 925 HPA
AT 16.4N 133.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 16.8N 130.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 17.4N 128.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 19.0N 125.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 20.3N 124.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 21.6N 124.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 23.0N 125.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 262100
WARNING 262100.
WARNING VALID 272100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 915 HPA
AT 16.2N 134.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 16.7N 131.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 17.1N 129.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 16.2N 134.3E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270900UTC 16.7N 131.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 272100UTC 17.1N 129.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 281800UTC 18.6N 126.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 291800UTC 20.2N 124.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 301800UTC 21.4N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 311800UTC 22.5N 124.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 262100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230526200206
2023052618 02W MAWAR 028 01 285 17 SATL 010
T000 161N 1348E 145 R064 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 135 NE QD 125 SE QD 085 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 166N 1321E 135 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 172N 1296E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 178N 1277E 130 R064 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 186N 1262E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 202N 1244E 095 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 214N 1241E 075 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 227N 1248E 065 R064 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 028
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.6N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.4N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 134.1E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 261800Z IS 59 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z,
271500Z AND 272100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.6N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.4N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 134.1E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 261800Z IS 59 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z,
271500Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 16.0N, 135.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
915HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 261800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 261800UTC 16.0N 135.0E
MOVEMENT WNW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 270600UTC 16.6N 132.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
24HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.1N 129.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
36HR
POSITION 280600UTC 17.9N 127.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
48HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.7N 126.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 291800UTC 20.2N 124.6E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 301800UTC 21.2N 124.3E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 311800UTC 22.3N 125.0E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 16.0N 135.0E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270600UTC 16.6N 132.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 271800UTC 17.0N 129.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 281800UTC 18.6N 126.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 291800UTC 20.2N 124.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 301800UTC 21.4N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 311800UTC 22.5N 124.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 261800
WARNING 261800.
WARNING VALID 271800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 915 HPA
AT 16.0N 135.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 16.6N 132.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.0N 129.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 18.6N 126.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 20.2N 124.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 21.4N 123.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 22.5N 124.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 15.8N 135.7E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270300UTC 16.3N 132.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 271500UTC 16.8N 130.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 281200UTC 18.3N 126.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 291200UTC 19.9N 124.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 301200UTC 20.8N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 311200UTC 21.8N 124.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 261500
WARNING 261500.
WARNING VALID 271500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.8N 135.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 16.3N 132.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 16.8N 130.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230526130643
2023052612 02W MAWAR 027 01 285 15 SATL 015
T000 157N 1365E 145 R064 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 135 NE QD 125 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 163N 1338E 135 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 169N 1313E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 176N 1292E 130 R064 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 183N 1275E 120 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 198N 1252E 095 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 210N 1246E 075 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 221N 1252E 065 R064 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.9N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.3N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 135.8E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052612Z IS 914 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z
IS 64 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.9N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.3N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 135.8E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052612Z IS 914 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z
IS 64 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 15.7N, 136.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
905HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 115KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 261200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 261200UTC 15.7N 136.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 14KT
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 270000UTC 16.3N 133.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
24HR
POSITION 271200UTC 16.9N 130.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
36HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.6N 128.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
48HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.4N 127.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
72HR
POSITION 291200UTC 20.0N 124.9E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 301200UTC 20.8N 124.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 311200UTC 21.9N 124.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 15.7N 136.5E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 270000UTC 16.3N 133.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 271200UTC 16.8N 130.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 281200UTC 18.3N 126.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 291200UTC 19.9N 124.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 301200UTC 20.8N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 311200UTC 21.8N 124.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 261200
WARNING 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.7N 136.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 16.3N 133.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 16.8N 130.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 18.3N 126.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 19.9N 124.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 20.8N 123.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 21.8N 124.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 15.5N 137.2E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 262100UTC 16.0N 134.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 270900UTC 16.5N 131.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
45HF 280600UTC 18.0N 127.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
69HF 290600UTC 19.9N 125.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 300600UTC 20.8N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 310600UTC 21.6N 124.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 260900
WARNING 260900.
WARNING VALID 270900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.5N 137.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 16.0N 134.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 16.5N 131.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 260900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230526070818
2023052606 02W MAWAR 026 01 280 12 SATL 015
T000 153N 1380E 155 R064 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 158N 1353E 140 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 175 NW QD
T024 164N 1326E 145 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 140 SW QD 195 NW QD
T036 170N 1302E 140 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 240 SE QD 150 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 178N 1283E 130 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 194N 1256E 105 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 206N 1246E 085 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 217N 1252E 070 R064 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 026
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 138.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 138.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.8N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.4N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.8N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.6N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 137.3E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052606Z
IS 904 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 66 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 138.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 138.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.8N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.4N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.8N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.6N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 137.3E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052606Z
IS 904 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 66 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 15.3N, 138.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 905HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
115KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 260600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 260600UTC 15.4N 137.8E
MOVEMENT W 13KT
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 261800UTC 16.0N 135.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
24HR
POSITION 270600UTC 16.5N 132.6E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
36HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.1N 130.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
48HR
POSITION 280600UTC 17.9N 128.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.6N 125.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
96HR
POSITION 300600UTC 21.0N 124.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 310600UTC 22.0N 124.9E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.3N 138.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 16.1N 134.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 16.7N 132.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 18.0N 127.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 19.9N 125.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 20.8N 123.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 21.6N 124.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 15.3N 138.0E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 261800UTC 16.1N 134.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 270600UTC 16.7N 132.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 280600UTC 18.0N 127.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 290600UTC 19.9N 125.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 300600UTC 20.8N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 310600UTC 21.6N 124.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 15.2N 138.6E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 261500UTC 16.0N 135.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 270300UTC 16.5N 132.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
45HF 280000UTC 17.5N 128.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
69HF 290000UTC 19.4N 125.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 300000UTC 20.7N 124.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 310000UTC 21.5N 124.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 260300
WARNING 260300.
WARNING VALID 270300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.2N 138.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 16.0N 135.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 16.5N 132.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 139.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 139.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.6N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 025
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.6N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 138.6E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260000Z IS 68 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND
270300Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 15.1N, 139.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 905HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
115KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 260000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 260000UTC 15.1N 139.2E
MOVEMENT W 12KT
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 261200UTC 15.8N 136.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
24HR
POSITION 270000UTC 16.3N 133.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
36HR
POSITION 271200UTC 16.8N 131.4E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
48HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.6N 128.9E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 290000UTC 19.1N 125.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
96HR
POSITION 300000UTC 20.3N 124.3E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 310000UTC 21.5N 124.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 15.1N 139.2E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 261200UTC 15.8N 136.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 270000UTC 16.3N 133.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 280000UTC 17.5N 128.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 290000UTC 19.4N 125.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 300000UTC 20.7N 124.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 310000UTC 21.5N 124.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 260000
WARNING 260000.
WARNING VALID 270000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.1N 139.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 15.8N 136.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 16.3N 133.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 17.5N 128.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 19.4N 125.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 20.7N 124.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 21.5N 124.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 15.0N 139.8E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260900UTC 15.7N 136.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 262100UTC 16.3N 134.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 271800UTC 17.3N 129.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 281800UTC 19.1N 125.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 291800UTC 20.4N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
117HF 301800UTC 20.9N 123.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 252100
WARNING 252100.
WARNING VALID 262100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 15.0N 139.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 15.7N 136.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 16.3N 134.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 252100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230525185858
2023052518 02W MAWAR 024 01 280 11 SATL 010
T000 149N 1405E 155 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 154N 1380E 155 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 159N 1352E 150 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 165N 1324E 145 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 172N 1300E 135 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 189N 1262E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 201N 1243E 095 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 215N 1237E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 140.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 140.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.9N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.1N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.5N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 139.9E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052518Z IS 903 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 65 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 149N1405E 155
0223052518 149N1405E 155
0223052518 149N1405E 155
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 140.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 140.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.9N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.1N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.5N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 139.9E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052518Z IS 903 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 65 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 251800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 251800UTC 14.9N 140.4E
MOVEMENT WNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 260600UTC 15.6N 137.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
24HR
POSITION 261800UTC 16.0N 135.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
36HR
POSITION 270600UTC 16.5N 132.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
48HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.2N 130.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.9N 125.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
96HR
POSITION 291800UTC 20.1N 123.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
120HR
POSITION 301800UTC 20.9N 123.5E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 14.9N, 140.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA
SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 14.9N 140.5E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260600UTC 15.6N 137.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 261800UTC 16.2N 134.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 271800UTC 17.3N 129.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 281800UTC 19.1N 125.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 291800UTC 20.4N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
120HF 301800UTC 20.9N 123.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 14.9N 140.5E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 15.6N 137.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 16.2N 134.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.3N 129.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 19.1N 125.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 20.4N 123.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 20.9N 123.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 14.8N 141.0E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260300UTC 15.4N 138.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 261500UTC 16.0N 135.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 271200UTC 17.0N 130.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 281200UTC 18.3N 126.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 291200UTC 19.7N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
117HF 301200UTC 20.4N 123.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 251500
WARNING 251500.
WARNING VALID 261500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 14.8N 141.0E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 15.4N 138.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 16.0N 135.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230525131451
2023052512 02W MAWAR 023 01 280 12 SATL 015
T000 147N 1416E 150 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 152N 1392E 155 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 157N 1365E 150 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 162N 1339E 145 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 167N 1312E 140 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 181N 1271E 125 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 196N 1247E 110 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 210N 1235E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 023
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 141.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 141.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.2N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.1N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.6N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 141.0E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052512Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 63 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 141.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 141.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.2N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.1N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.6N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 141.0E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052512Z
IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 63 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 14.8N, 141.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 251200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 251200UTC 14.8N 141.6E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 260000UTC 15.4N 139.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
24HR
POSITION 261200UTC 15.8N 136.4E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
36HR
POSITION 270000UTC 16.3N 133.7E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
48HR
POSITION 271200UTC 16.9N 131.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.3N 126.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
96HR
POSITION 291200UTC 19.8N 124.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
120HR
POSITION 301200UTC 20.7N 123.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 14.8N 141.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260000UTC 15.3N 138.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 261200UTC 15.8N 136.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 271200UTC 17.0N 130.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 281200UTC 18.3N 126.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 291200UTC 19.7N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
120HF 301200UTC 20.4N 123.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 251200
WARNING 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 14.8N 141.6E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 15.3N 138.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 15.8N 136.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 17.0N 130.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 18.3N 126.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 19.7N 123.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 20.4N 123.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 14.7N 142.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 252100UTC 15.1N 139.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 260900UTC 15.7N 136.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 270600UTC 16.8N 131.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 280600UTC 18.2N 127.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 290600UTC 19.8N 124.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 300600UTC 20.4N 123.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 250900
WARNING 250900.
WARNING VALID 260900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 14.7N 142.2E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 15.1N 139.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 15.7N 136.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230525072721
2023052506 02W MAWAR 022 01 295 07 SATL 015
T000 145N 1428E 145 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 150N 1405E 150 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 154N 1380E 150 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 159N 1353E 145 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 166N 1327E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 179N 1283E 125 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 195N 1253E 110 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 210N 1238E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 022
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.0N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.6N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.0N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 142.2E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052506Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 60 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z
AND 260900Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.0N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.6N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.0N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 142.2E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052506Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 60 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z
AND 260900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 14.5N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250600UTC 14.6N 142.8E
MOVEMENT NW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 251800UTC 15.1N 140.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
24HR
POSITION 260600UTC 15.6N 137.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
36HR
POSITION 261800UTC 16.0N 135.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
48HR
POSITION 270600UTC 16.6N 132.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
72HR
POSITION 280600UTC 18.0N 127.5E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
96HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.5N 124.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
120HR
POSITION 300600UTC 20.6N 123.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 14.5N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251800UTC 15.1N 140.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 260600UTC 15.6N 137.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 270600UTC 16.8N 131.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 280600UTC 18.2N 127.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 290600UTC 19.8N 124.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 300600UTC 20.4N 123.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 14.5N 142.7E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 15.1N 140.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 15.6N 137.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 16.8N 131.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 18.2N 127.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 19.8N 124.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 20.4N 123.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 14.3N 143.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251500UTC 14.7N 140.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 260300UTC 15.1N 138.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 270000UTC 16.4N 133.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 280000UTC 17.8N 128.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 290000UTC 19.5N 124.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 300000UTC 20.4N 122.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 250300
WARNING 250300.
WARNING VALID 260300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 920 HPA
AT 14.3N 143.1E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 14.7N 140.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 15.1N 138.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230525010356
2023052500 02W MAWAR 021 01 290 06 SATL SYNP XTRP 010
T000 143N 1435E 135 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 148N 1414E 140 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 152N 1390E 145 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 156N 1364E 145 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 163N 1335E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 177N 1289E 125 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 194N 1258E 105 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 214N 1242E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 021
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.8N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.6N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.7N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.4N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.4N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 143.0E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052500Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
54 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 141N1441E 130
0223052418 141N1441E 130
0223052418 141N1441E 130
0223052500 143N1435E 135
0223052500 143N1435E 135
0223052500 143N1435E 135
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.8N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.6N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.7N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.4N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.4N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 143.0E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052500Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
54 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 14.3N, 143.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250000UTC 14.3N 143.4E
MOVEMENT W 7KT
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 251200UTC 14.9N 141.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
24HR
POSITION 260000UTC 15.4N 139.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
36HR
POSITION 261200UTC 15.8N 136.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
48HR
POSITION 270000UTC 16.3N 133.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
72HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.7N 128.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
96HR
POSITION 290000UTC 19.2N 125.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
120HR
POSITION 300000UTC 20.4N 123.6E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 14.3N 143.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251200UTC 14.9N 141.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 260000UTC 15.3N 138.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 270000UTC 16.4N 133.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 280000UTC 17.8N 128.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 290000UTC 19.5N 124.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 300000UTC 20.4N 122.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 925 HPA
AT 14.3N 143.5E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 14.9N 141.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 15.3N 138.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 16.4N 133.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 17.8N 128.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 19.5N 124.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 20.4N 122.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 242100
WARNING 242100.
WARNING VALID 252100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 14.1N 143.9E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 15.2N 139.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 14.1N 143.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 15.2N 139.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 261800UTC 16.2N 134.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 271800UTC 17.4N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 281800UTC 19.1N 125.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 291800UTC 20.5N 123.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230524184942
2023052418 02W MAWAR 020 01 295 07 SATL SYNP XTRP 010
T000 141N 1441E 130 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 146N 1423E 135 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 151N 1400E 135 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 155N 1375E 140 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 160N 1348E 145 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 172N 1301E 130 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 189N 1264E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 210N 1243E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 144.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 144.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.6N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.1N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.5N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.0N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.0N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 143.6E.
24MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 52 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052418Z IS 930 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS
50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 141N1441E 130
0223052418 141N1441E 130
0223052418 141N1441E 130

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 144.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 144.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.6N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.1N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.5N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.0N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.0N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 143.6E.
24MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 52 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052418Z IS 930 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS
50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 14.1N, 144.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241800UTC 14.1N 144.1E
MOVEMENT WNW 5KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 250600UTC 14.7N 142.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 251800UTC 15.1N 140.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 260600UTC 15.6N 137.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
48HR
POSITION 261800UTC 16.1N 134.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
72HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.3N 129.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
96HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.8N 126.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
120HR
POSITION 291800UTC 20.0N 123.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 14.1N 144.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 15.1N 140.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 261800UTC 16.2N 134.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 271800UTC 17.4N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 281800UTC 19.1N 125.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 291800UTC 20.5N 123.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 940 HPA
AT 14.1N 144.1E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 15.1N 140.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 16.2N 134.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.4N 129.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 19.1N 125.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 20.5N 123.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 14.0N 144.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 15.1N 140.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 261200UTC 15.9N 135.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 271200UTC 16.9N 130.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 281200UTC 18.6N 126.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 291200UTC 20.1N 124.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 940 HPA
AT 14.0N 144.5E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 15.1N 140.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230524132522
2023052412 02W MAWAR 019 01 290 05 SATL 030
T000 138N 1447E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 143N 1432E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 148N 1411E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 152N 1387E 135 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 157N 1359E 140 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 169N 1309E 135 R064 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 184N 1271E 120 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 203N 1245E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.3N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.9N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.4N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.3N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 144.3E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052412Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.3N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.9N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.4N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.3N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 144.3E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052412Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 13.8N, 144.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EXPANSION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241200UTC 13.9N 144.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 250000UTC 14.5N 143.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
24HR
POSITION 251200UTC 14.9N 141.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
36HR
POSITION 260000UTC 15.4N 139.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
48HR
POSITION 261200UTC 15.9N 136.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
72HR
POSITION 271200UTC 17.0N 131.0E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
96HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.7N 127.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
120HR
POSITION 291200UTC 20.4N 125.0E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 13.8N 144.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 15.0N 141.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 261200UTC 15.9N 135.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 271200UTC 16.9N 130.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 281200UTC 18.6N 126.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 291200UTC 20.1N 124.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 940 HPA
AT 13.8N 144.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 15.0N 141.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 15.9N 135.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 16.9N 130.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 18.6N 126.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 20.1N 124.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 13.7N 145.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 14.8N 141.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 260600UTC 15.6N 137.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 270600UTC 16.8N 132.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 280600UTC 18.4N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
117HF 290600UTC 20.2N 125.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 240900
WARNING 240900.
WARNING VALID 250900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 940 HPA
AT 13.7N 145.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 14.8N 141.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230524072955
2023052406 02W MAWAR 018 01 325 07 SATL SYNP 030
T000 136N 1452E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 142N 1439E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 147N 1421E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 152N 1398E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 156N 1372E 135 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 167N 1320E 140 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 182N 1279E 125 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 190 NW QD
T120 202N 1253E 105 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 145.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 145.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.2N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.2N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.6N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 144.9E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052406Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 120
0223052406 136N1452E 120
0223052406 136N1452E 120
0223052406 136N1452E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 145.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 145.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.2N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.2N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.6N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 144.9E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052406Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 13.6N, 145.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
REDUCTION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240600UTC 13.7N 145.2E
MOVEMENT NNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 241800UTC 14.3N 143.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
24HR
POSITION 250600UTC 14.6N 142.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
36HR
POSITION 251800UTC 15.1N 140.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 260600UTC 15.7N 137.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 270600UTC 16.7N 132.2E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
96HR
POSITION 280600UTC 18.3N 127.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
120HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.9N 125.6E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 940 HPA
AT 13.6N 145.3E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 14.7N 142.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 15.6N 137.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 16.8N 132.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 18.4N 127.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 20.2N 125.8E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 13.6N 145.3E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 14.7N 142.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 260600UTC 15.6N 137.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 270600UTC 16.8N 132.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 280600UTC 18.4N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
120HF 290600UTC 20.2N 125.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 13.4N 145.5E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 14.5N 142.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 260000UTC 15.2N 138.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 270000UTC 16.4N 133.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 280000UTC 18.1N 128.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
117HF 290000UTC 19.8N 125.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 13.4N 145.5E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 14.5N 142.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230524013041
2023052400 02W MAWAR 017 01 340 05 SATL RADR 015
T000 130N 1455E 120 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 137N 1444E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 142N 1428E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 147N 1408E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 152N 1384E 130 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 163N 1331E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 179N 1284E 130 R064 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 197N 1253E 110 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 145.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 145.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.7N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.2N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.7N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 145.2E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052400Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1457E 120
0223052318 125N1457E 120
0223052318 125N1457E 120
0223052400 130N1455E 120
0223052400 130N1455E 120
0223052400 130N1455E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 145.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 145.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.7N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.2N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.7N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 145.2E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052400Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 13.0N, 145.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240000UTC 13.0N 145.4E
MOVEMENT NNW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 241200UTC 13.7N 144.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 250000UTC 13.9N 143.0E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 251200UTC 14.3N 141.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
48HR
POSITION 260000UTC 14.7N 139.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 270000UTC 15.9N 133.9E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
96HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.5N 128.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
120HR
POSITION 290000UTC 19.2N 126.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 13.0N 145.6E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 14.4N 142.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 260000UTC 15.2N 138.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 270000UTC 16.4N 133.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 280000UTC 18.1N 128.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
120HF 290000UTC 19.8N 125.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 13.0N 145.6E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 14.4N 142.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 15.2N 138.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 16.4N 133.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 18.1N 128.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 19.8N 125.5E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 12.7N 145.6E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 14.2N 143.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 251800UTC 14.9N 139.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 261800UTC 16.1N 134.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 271800UTC 17.6N 129.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
117HF 281800UTC 19.6N 125.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 12.7N 145.6E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 14.2N 143.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230523193454
2023052318 02W MAWAR 016 01 310 05 SATL RADR 020
T000 125N 1457E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 133N 1447E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 138N 1434E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 143N 1416E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 148N 1393E 130 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 160N 1342E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 176N 1293E 130 R064 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 195N 1255E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 145.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 145.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.3N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.8N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.3N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.8N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.6N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 145.4E.
23MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052318Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND
242100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1457E 120
0223052318 125N1457E 120
0223052318 125N1457E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 145.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 145.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.3N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.8N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.3N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.8N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.6N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 145.4E.
23MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052318Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND
242100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 12.5N, 145.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231800UTC 12.6N 145.6E
MOVEMENT NW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 240600UTC 13.3N 144.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 241800UTC 13.6N 143.3E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 250600UTC 14.0N 141.6E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 251800UTC 14.4N 139.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 261800UTC 15.6N 134.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
96HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.2N 129.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
120HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.9N 126.5E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 12.5N 145.7E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 13.9N 143.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 251800UTC 14.9N 139.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 261800UTC 16.1N 134.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 271800UTC 17.6N 129.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
120HF 281800UTC 19.6N 125.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 12.5N 145.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 13.9N 143.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 14.9N 139.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 16.1N 134.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.6N 129.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 19.6N 125.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 12.4N 145.8E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 13.8N 143.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 12.4N 145.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 13.8N 143.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 251200UTC 14.5N 140.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 261200UTC 15.7N 135.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 271200UTC 17.0N 130.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
117HF 281200UTC 19.1N 126.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230523130339
2023052312 02W MAWAR 015 01 315 06 SATL RADR 015
T000 122N 1461E 135 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 131N 1451E 140 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 137N 1440E 135 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 142N 1424E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 146N 1405E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 157N 1356E 140 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 171N 1305E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 189N 1267E 125 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 146.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 146.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.1N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.7N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.2N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.6N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.1N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 145.8E.
23MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052312Z IS 923 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 146.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 146.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.1N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.7N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.2N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.6N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.1N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 145.8E.
23MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052312Z IS 923 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 12.2N, 146.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231200UTC 12.3N 146.0E
MOVEMENT NW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 240000UTC 13.1N 145.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 241200UTC 13.5N 144.0E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 250000UTC 13.8N 142.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 251200UTC 14.2N 140.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 261200UTC 15.2N 135.6E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
96HR
POSITION 271200UTC 16.7N 130.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
120HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.6N 127.0E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 12.2N 146.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 13.7N 143.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 251200UTC 14.5N 140.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 261200UTC 15.7N 135.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 271200UTC 17.0N 130.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
120HF 281200UTC 19.1N 126.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 12.2N 146.1E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 13.7N 143.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 14.5N 140.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 15.7N 135.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 17.0N 130.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 19.1N 126.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 12.1N 146.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 13.6N 144.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 250600UTC 14.4N 141.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 260600UTC 15.4N 136.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 270600UTC 16.6N 131.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
117HF 280600UTC 18.4N 127.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 230900
WARNING 230900.
WARNING VALID 240900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 12.1N 146.3E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 13.6N 144.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230523075332
2023052306 02W MAWAR 014 01 335 07 SATL RADR 015
T000 118N 1465E 135 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 128N 1456E 140 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 135N 1445E 135 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 140N 1432E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 144N 1414E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 154N 1369E 140 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 167N 1319E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 185N 1282E 130 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 014
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 014
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.8N 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.8N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.5N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.0N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.4N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.5N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 146.3E.
23MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052306Z IS 926 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 014
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.8N 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.8N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.5N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.0N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.4N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
2