Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23
in Japan, Guam

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 290300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230529010613
2023052900 02W MAWAR 037 01 310 09 SATL 015
T000 191N 1262E 105 R064 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 145 SE QD 165 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 200N 1253E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 205N 1247E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 230 NW QD
T036 209N 1244E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 215N 1242E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 230 NW QD
T072 232N 1243E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 251N 1254E 055 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 265N 1272E 045 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 037
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.0N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.2N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.1N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 126.0E.
29MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052900Z
IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 43 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
0223052900 191N1262E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.0N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.9N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.2N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.1N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 126.0E.
29MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052900Z
IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 43 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.39 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 19.0N, 126.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 290000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 36
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 290000UTC 19.1N 126.1E
MOVEMENT NW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 291200UTC 19.8N 125.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 300000UTC 20.1N 124.6E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 301200UTC 20.4N 124.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 310000UTC 20.8N 124.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 010000UTC 22.2N 124.2E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 020000UTC 24.3N 124.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 030000UTC 25.9N 126.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 19.0N 126.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 20.4N 124.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 310000UTC 21.3N 124.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 010000UTC 23.1N 124.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 020000UTC 25.5N 125.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 030000UTC 26.9N 127.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 290000
WARNING 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 19.0N 126.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 20.4N 124.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 21.3N 124.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 23.1N 124.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 25.5N 125.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 26.9N 127.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 18.8N 126.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 20.1N 124.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 301800UTC 20.6N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 311800UTC 22.1N 124.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 011800UTC 24.6N 124.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 021800UTC 26.2N 126.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 282100
WARNING 282100.
WARNING VALID 292100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 18.8N 126.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 20.1N 124.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 282100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230528191513
2023052818 02W MAWAR 036 01 330 07 SATL 015
T000 185N 1269E 105 R064 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 145 SE QD 165 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 195N 1258E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 200N 1251E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 204N 1247E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 210N 1245E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 224N 1243E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 244N 1249E 055 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 259N 1264E 045 R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 036
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.0N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.4N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 126.6E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052818Z IS
950 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
0223052818 185N1269E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.0N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.4N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 126.6E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052818Z IS
950 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 281800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 35
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 281800UTC 18.6N 126.7E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.6N 125.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 291800UTC 20.0N 124.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 300600UTC 20.3N 124.4E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 301800UTC 20.6N 124.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 311800UTC 21.8N 124.1E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 011800UTC 23.8N 124.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 021800UTC 25.6N 125.9E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.38 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 18.6N, 126.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 18.6N 126.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 425NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 20.0N 125.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 301800UTC 20.6N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 311800UTC 22.1N 124.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 011800UTC 24.6N 124.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 021800UTC 26.2N 126.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 18.6N 126.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 20.0N 125.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 20.6N 124.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 22.1N 124.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 24.6N 124.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 26.2N 126.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 18.2N 127.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 425NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 19.8N 124.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 301200UTC 20.3N 124.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 311200UTC 21.3N 124.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 011200UTC 23.4N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 021200UTC 25.3N 124.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 281500
WARNING 281500.
WARNING VALID 291500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 18.2N 127.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 19.8N 124.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230528131336
2023052812 02W MAWAR 035 01 305 07 SATL 015
T000 179N 1273E 105 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 205 NW QD
T012 186N 1260E 105 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 192N 1251E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 196N 1245E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 201N 1241E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 212N 1238E 075 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 227N 1241E 065 R064 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 241N 1247E 055 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 035
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 127.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.6N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.2N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.6N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.1N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 127.0E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 517 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052812Z IS
952 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
0223052812 179N1273E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 127.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.6N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.2N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.6N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.1N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 127.0E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 517 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052812Z IS
952 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 281200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 34
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 281200UTC 18.0N 127.3E
MOVEMENT NW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 290000UTC 18.7N 125.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 291200UTC 19.3N 124.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 300000UTC 19.7N 124.1E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 301200UTC 20.1N 123.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 311200UTC 20.9N 123.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 011200UTC 22.6N 124.1E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 021200UTC 24.6N 124.9E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 127.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 17.9N 127.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 425NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 19.6N 125.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 301200UTC 20.3N 124.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 311200UTC 21.3N 124.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 011200UTC 23.4N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 021200UTC 25.3N 124.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 281200
WARNING 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 17.9N 127.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 19.6N 125.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 20.3N 124.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 21.3N 124.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 23.4N 124.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 25.3N 124.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230528070628
2023052806 02W MAWAR 034 01 290 09 SATL 015
T000 175N 1279E 105 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 182N 1264E 100 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 185 SW QD 205 NW QD
T024 189N 1253E 095 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 194N 1246E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 198N 1240E 085 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 240 SW QD 230 NW QD
T072 208N 1236E 075 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 230 NW QD
T096 221N 1238E 065 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 220 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 232N 1241E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 220 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 034
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.2N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.8N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.1N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.2N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 127.5E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z,
290300Z AND 290900Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052700 164N1333E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052706 166N1322E 135
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052712 168N1309E 130
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052718 170N1297E 120
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052800 172N1288E 110
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
0223052806 175N1279E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 17.8N 127.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 425NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 282100UTC 18.7N 126.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 290900UTC 19.5N 125.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 300600UTC 20.0N 124.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 310600UTC 20.9N 123.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 010600UTC 22.8N 123.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 020600UTC 25.0N 124.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 280900
WARNING 280900.
WARNING VALID 290900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 17.8N 127.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 18.7N 126.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 19.5N 125.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 034//
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.2N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.8N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.1N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.2N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 127.5E.
28MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z,
290300Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 17.6N, 128.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 280600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 33
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 280600UTC 17.6N 127.9E
MOVEMENT WNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.4N 126.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.1N 125.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 291800UTC 19.6N 124.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 300600UTC 20.0N 123.9E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 310600UTC 20.9N 123.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 010600UTC 22.3N 124.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 020600UTC 24.0N 124.6E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 17.6N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 425NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281800UTC 18.4N 126.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 290600UTC 19.3N 125.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 300600UTC 20.0N 124.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 310600UTC 20.9N 123.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 010600UTC 22.8N 123.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 020600UTC 25.0N 124.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 17.6N 128.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 18.4N 126.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 19.3N 125.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 20.0N 124.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 20.9N 123.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 22.8N 123.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 25.0N 124.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 17.4N 128.4E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 425NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281500UTC 18.2N 126.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 290300UTC 19.0N 125.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 300000UTC 19.9N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 310000UTC 20.9N 123.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 010000UTC 22.3N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 020000UTC 24.2N 124.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 280300
WARNING 280300.
WARNING VALID 290300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 17.4N 128.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 18.2N 126.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 19.0N 125.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 17.3N, 128.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 280000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 32
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 280000UTC 17.3N 128.7E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.0N 127.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
24HR
POSITION 290000UTC 18.8N 125.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 291200UTC 19.4N 124.7E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 300000UTC 19.8N 124.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 310000UTC 20.6N 123.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 010000UTC 21.8N 123.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 020000UTC 23.7N 124.5E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 17.3N 128.7E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281200UTC 18.1N 127.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 290000UTC 18.9N 125.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 300000UTC 19.9N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 310000UTC 20.9N 123.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 010000UTC 22.3N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 020000UTC 24.2N 124.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 280000
WARNING 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 17.3N 128.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 18.1N 127.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 18.9N 125.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 19.9N 124.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 20.9N 123.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 22.3N 123.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 24.2N 124.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 17.2N 129.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280900UTC 18.0N 127.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 282100UTC 18.8N 125.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 291800UTC 19.9N 124.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 301800UTC 20.5N 123.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 311800UTC 21.8N 123.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 011800UTC 23.4N 123.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 272100
WARNING 272100.
WARNING VALID 282100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 17.2N 129.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 18.0N 127.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 18.8N 125.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 129.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 271800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 31
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 271800UTC 17.1N 129.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 280600UTC 17.8N 127.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
24HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.6N 126.3E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
36HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.1N 125.4E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
48HR
POSITION 291800UTC 19.9N 124.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
72HR
POSITION 301800UTC 20.6N 123.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
96HR
POSITION 311800UTC 21.8N 123.7E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 011800UTC 23.4N 123.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 17.1N 129.7E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280600UTC 17.7N 127.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 281800UTC 18.5N 126.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 291800UTC 19.9N 124.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 301800UTC 20.5N 123.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 311800UTC 21.8N 123.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 011800UTC 23.4N 123.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 271800
WARNING 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 17.1N 129.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 17.7N 127.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 18.5N 126.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 19.9N 124.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 20.5N 123.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 21.8N 123.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 23.4N 123.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 271500
WARNING 271500.
WARNING VALID 281500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 16.9N 130.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 17.5N 128.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 18.3N 126.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 16.9N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280300UTC 17.5N 128.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 281500UTC 18.3N 126.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 291200UTC 19.6N 124.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 301200UTC 20.5N 123.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 311200UTC 21.8N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 011200UTC 23.5N 124.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 130.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 271200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 30
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 271200UTC 16.8N 130.9E
MOVEMENT W 14KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.5N 128.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
24HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.3N 127.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
36HR
POSITION 290000UTC 19.0N 126.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
48HR
POSITION 291200UTC 19.7N 125.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
72HR
POSITION 301200UTC 21.0N 124.2E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 311200UTC 22.1N 124.7E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 011200UTC 23.4N 125.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 16.8N 130.9E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280000UTC 17.3N 128.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 281200UTC 18.1N 127.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 291200UTC 19.6N 124.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 301200UTC 20.5N 123.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 311200UTC 21.8N 124.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 011200UTC 23.5N 124.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 271200
WARNING 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 16.8N 130.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 17.3N 128.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 18.1N 127.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 19.6N 124.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 20.5N 123.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 21.8N 124.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 23.5N 124.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 16.8N 131.6E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 272100UTC 17.1N 129.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 280900UTC 17.9N 127.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 290600UTC 19.4N 125.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 300600UTC 20.3N 124.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 310600UTC 21.7N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 010600UTC 23.4N 124.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 270900
WARNING 270900.
WARNING VALID 280900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 925 HPA
AT 16.8N 131.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 17.1N 129.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 17.9N 127.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 132.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 270600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 270600UTC 16.7N 132.2E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.2N 129.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 280600UTC 17.9N 127.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
36HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.6N 126.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
48HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.4N 125.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
72HR
POSITION 300600UTC 20.7N 124.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 310600UTC 21.8N 124.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 010600UTC 23.3N 125.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 16.6N 132.2E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 270NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 271800UTC 17.0N 129.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 280600UTC 17.7N 127.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 290600UTC 19.4N 125.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 300600UTC 20.3N 124.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 310600UTC 21.7N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 010600UTC 23.4N 124.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 925 HPA
AT 16.6N 132.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.0N 129.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 17.7N 127.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 19.4N 125.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 20.3N 124.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 21.7N 124.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 23.4N 124.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 270300
WARNING 270300.
WARNING VALID 280300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 925 HPA
AT 16.5N 132.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 16.9N 130.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 17.5N 128.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 16.5N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 271500UTC 16.9N 130.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 280300UTC 17.5N 128.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 290000UTC 19.0N 125.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 300000UTC 20.3N 124.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 310000UTC 21.6N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 010000UTC 23.0N 125.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 16.4N, 133.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 270000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 270000UTC 16.4N 133.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 16KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 271200UTC 16.9N 130.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
24HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.5N 128.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
36HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.3N 127.1E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
48HR
POSITION 290000UTC 19.0N 126.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 300000UTC 20.4N 124.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 310000UTC 21.5N 124.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 010000UTC 22.8N 125.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 16.4N 133.5E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 271200UTC 16.8N 130.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 280000UTC 17.4N 128.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 290000UTC 19.0N 125.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 300000UTC 20.3N 124.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 310000UTC 21.6N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 010000UTC 23.0N 125.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 270000
WARNING 270000.
WARNING VALID 280000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 925 HPA
AT 16.4N 133.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 16.8N 130.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 17.4N 128.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 19.0N 125.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 20.3N 124.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 21.6N 124.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 23.0N 125.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 262100
WARNING 262100.
WARNING VALID 272100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 915 HPA
AT 16.2N 134.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 16.7N 131.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 17.1N 129.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 16.2N 134.3E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270900UTC 16.7N 131.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 272100UTC 17.1N 129.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 281800UTC 18.6N 126.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 291800UTC 20.2N 124.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 301800UTC 21.4N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 311800UTC 22.5N 124.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 262100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230526200206
2023052618 02W MAWAR 028 01 285 17 SATL 010
T000 161N 1348E 145 R064 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 135 NE QD 125 SE QD 085 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 166N 1321E 135 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 172N 1296E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 178N 1277E 130 R064 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 186N 1262E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 202N 1244E 095 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 214N 1241E 075 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 227N 1248E 065 R064 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 028
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.6N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.4N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 134.1E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 261800Z IS 59 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z,
271500Z AND 272100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
0223052618 161N1348E 145
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.6N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.8N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.4N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 134.1E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 261800Z IS 59 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z,
271500Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 16.0N, 135.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
915HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 261800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 261800UTC 16.0N 135.0E
MOVEMENT WNW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 270600UTC 16.6N 132.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
24HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.1N 129.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
36HR
POSITION 280600UTC 17.9N 127.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
48HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.7N 126.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 291800UTC 20.2N 124.6E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 301800UTC 21.2N 124.3E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 311800UTC 22.3N 125.0E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 16.0N 135.0E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270600UTC 16.6N 132.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 271800UTC 17.0N 129.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 281800UTC 18.6N 126.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 291800UTC 20.2N 124.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 301800UTC 21.4N 123.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 311800UTC 22.5N 124.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 261800
WARNING 261800.
WARNING VALID 271800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 915 HPA
AT 16.0N 135.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 16.6N 132.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.0N 129.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 18.6N 126.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 20.2N 124.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 21.4N 123.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 22.5N 124.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 15.8N 135.7E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 240NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270300UTC 16.3N 132.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 271500UTC 16.8N 130.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 281200UTC 18.3N 126.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 291200UTC 19.9N 124.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 301200UTC 20.8N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 311200UTC 21.8N 124.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 261500
WARNING 261500.
WARNING VALID 271500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.8N 135.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 16.3N 132.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 16.8N 130.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230526130643
2023052612 02W MAWAR 027 01 285 15 SATL 015
T000 157N 1365E 145 R064 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 135 NE QD 125 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 163N 1338E 135 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 169N 1313E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 176N 1292E 130 R064 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 183N 1275E 120 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 198N 1252E 095 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 210N 1246E 075 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 221N 1252E 065 R064 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.9N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.3N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 135.8E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052612Z IS 914 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z
IS 64 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145
0223052612 157N1365E 145

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.9N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.3N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.8N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 135.8E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052612Z IS 914 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z
IS 64 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 15.7N, 136.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
905HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 115KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 261200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 261200UTC 15.7N 136.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 14KT
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 270000UTC 16.3N 133.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
24HR
POSITION 271200UTC 16.9N 130.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
36HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.6N 128.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
48HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.4N 127.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
72HR
POSITION 291200UTC 20.0N 124.9E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 301200UTC 20.8N 124.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 311200UTC 21.9N 124.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 15.7N 136.5E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 270000UTC 16.3N 133.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 271200UTC 16.8N 130.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 281200UTC 18.3N 126.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 291200UTC 19.9N 124.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 301200UTC 20.8N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 311200UTC 21.8N 124.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 261200
WARNING 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.7N 136.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 16.3N 133.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 16.8N 130.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 18.3N 126.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 19.9N 124.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 20.8N 123.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 21.8N 124.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 15.5N 137.2E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 262100UTC 16.0N 134.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 270900UTC 16.5N 131.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
45HF 280600UTC 18.0N 127.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
69HF 290600UTC 19.9N 125.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 300600UTC 20.8N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 310600UTC 21.6N 124.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 260900
WARNING 260900.
WARNING VALID 270900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.5N 137.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 16.0N 134.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 16.5N 131.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 260900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230526070818
2023052606 02W MAWAR 026 01 280 12 SATL 015
T000 153N 1380E 155 R064 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 158N 1353E 140 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 175 NW QD
T024 164N 1326E 145 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 140 SW QD 195 NW QD
T036 170N 1302E 140 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 240 SE QD 150 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 178N 1283E 130 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 194N 1256E 105 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 206N 1246E 085 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 217N 1252E 070 R064 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 026
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 138.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 138.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.8N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.4N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.8N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.6N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 137.3E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052606Z
IS 904 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 66 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052518 148N1404E 155
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052600 151N1392E 160
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
0223052606 153N1380E 155
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 138.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 138.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.8N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.4N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.8N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.6N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 137.3E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052606Z
IS 904 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 66 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 15.3N, 138.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 905HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
115KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 260600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 260600UTC 15.4N 137.8E
MOVEMENT W 13KT
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 261800UTC 16.0N 135.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
24HR
POSITION 270600UTC 16.5N 132.6E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
36HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.1N 130.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
48HR
POSITION 280600UTC 17.9N 128.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.6N 125.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
96HR
POSITION 300600UTC 21.0N 124.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 310600UTC 22.0N 124.9E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.3N 138.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 16.1N 134.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 16.7N 132.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 18.0N 127.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 19.9N 125.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 20.8N 123.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 21.6N 124.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 15.3N 138.0E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 261800UTC 16.1N 134.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 270600UTC 16.7N 132.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 280600UTC 18.0N 127.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 290600UTC 19.9N 125.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 300600UTC 20.8N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 310600UTC 21.6N 124.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 15.2N 138.6E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 261500UTC 16.0N 135.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 270300UTC 16.5N 132.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
45HF 280000UTC 17.5N 128.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
69HF 290000UTC 19.4N 125.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 300000UTC 20.7N 124.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 310000UTC 21.5N 124.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 260300
WARNING 260300.
WARNING VALID 270300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.2N 138.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 16.0N 135.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 16.5N 132.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 139.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 139.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.6N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 025
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.6N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 138.6E.
26MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260000Z IS 68 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND
270300Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 15.1N, 139.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 905HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
115KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 260000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 260000UTC 15.1N 139.2E
MOVEMENT W 12KT
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 261200UTC 15.8N 136.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
24HR
POSITION 270000UTC 16.3N 133.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
36HR
POSITION 271200UTC 16.8N 131.4E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
48HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.6N 128.9E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 290000UTC 19.1N 125.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
96HR
POSITION 300000UTC 20.3N 124.3E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 310000UTC 21.5N 124.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 15.1N 139.2E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 261200UTC 15.8N 136.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 270000UTC 16.3N 133.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 280000UTC 17.5N 128.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 290000UTC 19.4N 125.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 300000UTC 20.7N 124.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 310000UTC 21.5N 124.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 260000
WARNING 260000.
WARNING VALID 270000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 905 HPA
AT 15.1N 139.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 15.8N 136.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 16.3N 133.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 17.5N 128.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 19.4N 125.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 20.7N 124.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 21.5N 124.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 15.0N 139.8E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260900UTC 15.7N 136.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 262100UTC 16.3N 134.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 271800UTC 17.3N 129.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 281800UTC 19.1N 125.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 291800UTC 20.4N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
117HF 301800UTC 20.9N 123.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 252100
WARNING 252100.
WARNING VALID 262100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 15.0N 139.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 15.7N 136.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 16.3N 134.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 252100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230525185858
2023052518 02W MAWAR 024 01 280 11 SATL 010
T000 149N 1405E 155 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 154N 1380E 155 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 159N 1352E 150 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 165N 1324E 145 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 172N 1300E 135 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 189N 1262E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 201N 1243E 095 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 215N 1237E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 140.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 140.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.9N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.1N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.5N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 139.9E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052518Z IS 903 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 65 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052518 149N1405E 155
0223052518 149N1405E 155
0223052518 149N1405E 155
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 140.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 140.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.9N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.1N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.5N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 139.9E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052518Z IS 903 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 65 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 251800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 251800UTC 14.9N 140.4E
MOVEMENT WNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 260600UTC 15.6N 137.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
24HR
POSITION 261800UTC 16.0N 135.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
36HR
POSITION 270600UTC 16.5N 132.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
48HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.2N 130.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.9N 125.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
96HR
POSITION 291800UTC 20.1N 123.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
120HR
POSITION 301800UTC 20.9N 123.5E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 14.9N, 140.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA
SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 14.9N 140.5E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260600UTC 15.6N 137.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 261800UTC 16.2N 134.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 271800UTC 17.3N 129.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 281800UTC 19.1N 125.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 291800UTC 20.4N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
120HF 301800UTC 20.9N 123.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 14.9N 140.5E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 15.6N 137.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 16.2N 134.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.3N 129.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 19.1N 125.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 20.4N 123.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 20.9N 123.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 14.8N 141.0E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260300UTC 15.4N 138.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 261500UTC 16.0N 135.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 271200UTC 17.0N 130.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 281200UTC 18.3N 126.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 291200UTC 19.7N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
117HF 301200UTC 20.4N 123.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 251500
WARNING 251500.
WARNING VALID 261500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 14.8N 141.0E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 15.4N 138.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 16.0N 135.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230525131451
2023052512 02W MAWAR 023 01 280 12 SATL 015
T000 147N 1416E 150 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 152N 1392E 155 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 157N 1365E 150 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 162N 1339E 145 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 167N 1312E 140 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 181N 1271E 125 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 196N 1247E 110 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 210N 1235E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 023
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 141.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 141.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.2N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.1N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.6N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 141.0E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052512Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 63 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
0223052512 147N1416E 150
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 141.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 141.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.2N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.1N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.6N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 141.0E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052512Z
IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 63 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 14.8N, 141.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 251200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 251200UTC 14.8N 141.6E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 260000UTC 15.4N 139.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
24HR
POSITION 261200UTC 15.8N 136.4E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
36HR
POSITION 270000UTC 16.3N 133.7E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
48HR
POSITION 271200UTC 16.9N 131.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.3N 126.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
96HR
POSITION 291200UTC 19.8N 124.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
120HR
POSITION 301200UTC 20.7N 123.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 14.8N 141.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260000UTC 15.3N 138.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 261200UTC 15.8N 136.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 271200UTC 17.0N 130.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 281200UTC 18.3N 126.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 291200UTC 19.7N 123.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
120HF 301200UTC 20.4N 123.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 251200
WARNING 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 14.8N 141.6E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 15.3N 138.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 15.8N 136.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 17.0N 130.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 18.3N 126.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 19.7N 123.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 20.4N 123.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 14.7N 142.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 252100UTC 15.1N 139.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 260900UTC 15.7N 136.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 270600UTC 16.8N 131.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 280600UTC 18.2N 127.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 290600UTC 19.8N 124.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 300600UTC 20.4N 123.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 250900
WARNING 250900.
WARNING VALID 260900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 14.7N 142.2E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 15.1N 139.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 15.7N 136.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230525072721
2023052506 02W MAWAR 022 01 295 07 SATL 015
T000 145N 1428E 145 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 150N 1405E 150 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 154N 1380E 150 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 159N 1353E 145 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 166N 1327E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 179N 1283E 125 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 195N 1253E 110 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 210N 1238E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 022
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.0N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.6N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.0N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 142.2E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052506Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 60 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z
AND 260900Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052418 140N1441E 130
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052500 142N1435E 135
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145
0223052506 145N1428E 145

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.0N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.6N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.0N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 142.2E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052506Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 60 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z
AND 260900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 14.5N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250600UTC 14.6N 142.8E
MOVEMENT NW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 251800UTC 15.1N 140.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
24HR
POSITION 260600UTC 15.6N 137.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
36HR
POSITION 261800UTC 16.0N 135.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
48HR
POSITION 270600UTC 16.6N 132.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
72HR
POSITION 280600UTC 18.0N 127.5E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
96HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.5N 124.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
120HR
POSITION 300600UTC 20.6N 123.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 14.5N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251800UTC 15.1N 140.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 260600UTC 15.6N 137.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 270600UTC 16.8N 131.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 280600UTC 18.2N 127.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 290600UTC 19.8N 124.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 300600UTC 20.4N 123.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 910 HPA
AT 14.5N 142.7E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 15.1N 140.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 15.6N 137.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 16.8N 131.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 18.2N 127.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 19.8N 124.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 20.4N 123.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 14.3N 143.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251500UTC 14.7N 140.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 260300UTC 15.1N 138.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 270000UTC 16.4N 133.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 280000UTC 17.8N 128.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 290000UTC 19.5N 124.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 300000UTC 20.4N 122.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 250300
WARNING 250300.
WARNING VALID 260300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 920 HPA
AT 14.3N 143.1E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 14.7N 140.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 15.1N 138.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230525010356
2023052500 02W MAWAR 021 01 290 06 SATL SYNP XTRP 010
T000 143N 1435E 135 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 148N 1414E 140 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 152N 1390E 145 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 156N 1364E 145 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 163N 1335E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 177N 1289E 125 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 194N 1258E 105 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 214N 1242E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 021
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.8N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.6N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.7N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.4N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.4N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 143.0E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052500Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
54 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 141N1441E 130
0223052418 141N1441E 130
0223052418 141N1441E 130
0223052500 143N1435E 135
0223052500 143N1435E 135
0223052500 143N1435E 135
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.8N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.6N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.7N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.4N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.4N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 143.0E.
25MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052500Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
54 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 14.3N, 143.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250000UTC 14.3N 143.4E
MOVEMENT W 7KT
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 251200UTC 14.9N 141.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
24HR
POSITION 260000UTC 15.4N 139.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
36HR
POSITION 261200UTC 15.8N 136.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
48HR
POSITION 270000UTC 16.3N 133.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
72HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.7N 128.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
96HR
POSITION 290000UTC 19.2N 125.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
120HR
POSITION 300000UTC 20.4N 123.6E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 14.3N 143.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251200UTC 14.9N 141.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 260000UTC 15.3N 138.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 270000UTC 16.4N 133.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 280000UTC 17.8N 128.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 290000UTC 19.5N 124.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 300000UTC 20.4N 122.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 925 HPA
AT 14.3N 143.5E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 14.9N 141.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 15.3N 138.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 16.4N 133.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 17.8N 128.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 19.5N 124.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 20.4N 122.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 242100
WARNING 242100.
WARNING VALID 252100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 14.1N 143.9E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 15.2N 139.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 14.1N 143.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 15.2N 139.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 261800UTC 16.2N 134.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 271800UTC 17.4N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 281800UTC 19.1N 125.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 291800UTC 20.5N 123.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230524184942
2023052418 02W MAWAR 020 01 295 07 SATL SYNP XTRP 010
T000 141N 1441E 130 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 146N 1423E 135 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 151N 1400E 135 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 155N 1375E 140 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 160N 1348E 145 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 172N 1301E 130 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 189N 1264E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 210N 1243E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 144.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 144.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.6N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.1N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.5N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.0N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.0N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 143.6E.
24MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 52 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052418Z IS 930 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS
50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052418 141N1441E 130
0223052418 141N1441E 130
0223052418 141N1441E 130

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 144.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 144.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.6N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.1N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.5N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.0N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.0N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 143.6E.
24MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 52 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052418Z IS 930 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS
50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 14.1N, 144.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241800UTC 14.1N 144.1E
MOVEMENT WNW 5KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 250600UTC 14.7N 142.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 251800UTC 15.1N 140.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 260600UTC 15.6N 137.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
48HR
POSITION 261800UTC 16.1N 134.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
72HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.3N 129.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
96HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.8N 126.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
120HR
POSITION 291800UTC 20.0N 123.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 14.1N 144.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 15.1N 140.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 261800UTC 16.2N 134.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 271800UTC 17.4N 129.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 281800UTC 19.1N 125.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 291800UTC 20.5N 123.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 940 HPA
AT 14.1N 144.1E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 15.1N 140.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 16.2N 134.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.4N 129.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 19.1N 125.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 20.5N 123.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 14.0N 144.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 15.1N 140.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 261200UTC 15.9N 135.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 271200UTC 16.9N 130.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 281200UTC 18.6N 126.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 291200UTC 20.1N 124.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 940 HPA
AT 14.0N 144.5E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 15.1N 140.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230524132522
2023052412 02W MAWAR 019 01 290 05 SATL 030
T000 138N 1447E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 143N 1432E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 148N 1411E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 152N 1387E 135 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 157N 1359E 140 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 169N 1309E 135 R064 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 184N 1271E 120 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 203N 1245E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.3N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.9N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.4N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.3N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 144.3E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052412Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052400 130N1456E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052406 136N1452E 115
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
0223052412 138N1447E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.8N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.3N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.9N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.4N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.3N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 144.3E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052412Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 13.8N, 144.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EXPANSION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241200UTC 13.9N 144.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 250000UTC 14.5N 143.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
24HR
POSITION 251200UTC 14.9N 141.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
36HR
POSITION 260000UTC 15.4N 139.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
48HR
POSITION 261200UTC 15.9N 136.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
72HR
POSITION 271200UTC 17.0N 131.0E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
96HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.7N 127.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
120HR
POSITION 291200UTC 20.4N 125.0E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 13.8N 144.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 15.0N 141.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 261200UTC 15.9N 135.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 271200UTC 16.9N 130.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 281200UTC 18.6N 126.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 291200UTC 20.1N 124.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 940 HPA
AT 13.8N 144.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 15.0N 141.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 15.9N 135.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 16.9N 130.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 18.6N 126.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 20.1N 124.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 13.7N 145.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 14.8N 141.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 260600UTC 15.6N 137.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 270600UTC 16.8N 132.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 280600UTC 18.4N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
117HF 290600UTC 20.2N 125.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 240900
WARNING 240900.
WARNING VALID 250900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 940 HPA
AT 13.7N 145.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 14.8N 141.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230524072955
2023052406 02W MAWAR 018 01 325 07 SATL SYNP 030
T000 136N 1452E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 142N 1439E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 147N 1421E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 152N 1398E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 156N 1372E 135 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 167N 1320E 140 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 182N 1279E 125 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 190 NW QD
T120 202N 1253E 105 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 145.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 145.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.2N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.2N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.6N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 144.9E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052406Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052318 125N1458E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 120
0223052400 130N1456E 120
0223052406 136N1452E 120
0223052406 136N1452E 120
0223052406 136N1452E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 145.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 145.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.2N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.2N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.6N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.2N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 144.9E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052406Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 13.6N, 145.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
REDUCTION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240600UTC 13.7N 145.2E
MOVEMENT NNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 241800UTC 14.3N 143.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
24HR
POSITION 250600UTC 14.6N 142.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
36HR
POSITION 251800UTC 15.1N 140.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 260600UTC 15.7N 137.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 270600UTC 16.7N 132.2E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
96HR
POSITION 280600UTC 18.3N 127.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
120HR
POSITION 290600UTC 19.9N 125.6E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 940 HPA
AT 13.6N 145.3E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 14.7N 142.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 15.6N 137.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 16.8N 132.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 18.4N 127.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 20.2N 125.8E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 13.6N 145.3E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 65NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 14.7N 142.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 260600UTC 15.6N 137.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 270600UTC 16.8N 132.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 280600UTC 18.4N 127.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
120HF 290600UTC 20.2N 125.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 13.4N 145.5E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 14.5N 142.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 260000UTC 15.2N 138.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 270000UTC 16.4N 133.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 280000UTC 18.1N 128.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
117HF 290000UTC 19.8N 125.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 13.4N 145.5E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 14.5N 142.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230524013041
2023052400 02W MAWAR 017 01 340 05 SATL RADR 015
T000 130N 1455E 120 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 137N 1444E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 142N 1428E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 147N 1408E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 152N 1384E 130 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 163N 1331E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 179N 1284E 130 R064 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 197N 1253E 110 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 145.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 145.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.7N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.2N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.7N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 145.2E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052400Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1457E 120
0223052318 125N1457E 120
0223052318 125N1457E 120
0223052400 130N1455E 120
0223052400 130N1455E 120
0223052400 130N1455E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 145.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 145.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.7N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.2N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.7N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 145.2E.
24MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052400Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 13.0N, 145.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240000UTC 13.0N 145.4E
MOVEMENT NNW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 241200UTC 13.7N 144.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 250000UTC 13.9N 143.0E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 251200UTC 14.3N 141.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
48HR
POSITION 260000UTC 14.7N 139.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
72HR
POSITION 270000UTC 15.9N 133.9E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
96HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.5N 128.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
120HR
POSITION 290000UTC 19.2N 126.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 13.0N 145.6E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 14.4N 142.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 260000UTC 15.2N 138.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 270000UTC 16.4N 133.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 280000UTC 18.1N 128.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
120HF 290000UTC 19.8N 125.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 13.0N 145.6E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 14.4N 142.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 15.2N 138.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 16.4N 133.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 18.1N 128.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 19.8N 125.5E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 12.7N 145.6E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 14.2N 143.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 251800UTC 14.9N 139.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 261800UTC 16.1N 134.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 271800UTC 17.6N 129.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
117HF 281800UTC 19.6N 125.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 12.7N 145.6E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 14.2N 143.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230523193454
2023052318 02W MAWAR 016 01 310 05 SATL RADR 020
T000 125N 1457E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 133N 1447E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 138N 1434E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 143N 1416E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 148N 1393E 130 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 160N 1342E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 176N 1293E 130 R064 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 195N 1255E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 145.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 145.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.3N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.8N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.3N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.8N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.6N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 145.4E.
23MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052318Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND
242100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052318 125N1457E 120
0223052318 125N1457E 120
0223052318 125N1457E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 145.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 145.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.3N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.8N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.3N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.8N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.6N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 145.4E.
23MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 86 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052318Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND
242100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 12.5N, 145.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231800UTC 12.6N 145.6E
MOVEMENT NW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 240600UTC 13.3N 144.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 241800UTC 13.6N 143.3E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 250600UTC 14.0N 141.6E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 251800UTC 14.4N 139.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 261800UTC 15.6N 134.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
96HR
POSITION 271800UTC 17.2N 129.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
120HR
POSITION 281800UTC 18.9N 126.5E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 12.5N 145.7E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 13.9N 143.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 251800UTC 14.9N 139.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 261800UTC 16.1N 134.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 271800UTC 17.6N 129.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
120HF 281800UTC 19.6N 125.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 12.5N 145.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 13.9N 143.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 14.9N 139.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 16.1N 134.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.6N 129.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 19.6N 125.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 12.4N 145.8E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 13.8N 143.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 12.4N 145.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 13.8N 143.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 251200UTC 14.5N 140.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 261200UTC 15.7N 135.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 271200UTC 17.0N 130.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
117HF 281200UTC 19.1N 126.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230523130339
2023052312 02W MAWAR 015 01 315 06 SATL RADR 015
T000 122N 1461E 135 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 131N 1451E 140 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 137N 1440E 135 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 142N 1424E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 146N 1405E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 157N 1356E 140 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 171N 1305E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 189N 1267E 125 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 146.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 146.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.1N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.7N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.2N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.6N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.1N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 145.8E.
23MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052312Z IS 923 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
0223052312 122N1461E 135
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 146.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 146.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.1N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.7N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.2N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.6N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.7N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.1N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 145.8E.
23MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052312Z IS 923 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 12.2N, 146.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231200UTC 12.3N 146.0E
MOVEMENT NW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 240000UTC 13.1N 145.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 241200UTC 13.5N 144.0E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
36HR
POSITION 250000UTC 13.8N 142.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 251200UTC 14.2N 140.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 261200UTC 15.2N 135.6E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
96HR
POSITION 271200UTC 16.7N 130.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 905HPA 113KT
120HR
POSITION 281200UTC 18.6N 127.0E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 12.2N 146.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 13.7N 143.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 251200UTC 14.5N 140.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 261200UTC 15.7N 135.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 271200UTC 17.0N 130.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
120HF 281200UTC 19.1N 126.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 12.2N 146.1E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 13.7N 143.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 14.5N 140.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 15.7N 135.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 17.0N 130.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 19.1N 126.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 12.1N 146.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 13.6N 144.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 250600UTC 14.4N 141.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 260600UTC 15.4N 136.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 270600UTC 16.6N 131.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
117HF 280600UTC 18.4N 127.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 230900
WARNING 230900.
WARNING VALID 240900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 12.1N 146.3E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 13.6N 144.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230523075332
2023052306 02W MAWAR 014 01 335 07 SATL RADR 015
T000 118N 1465E 135 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 128N 1456E 140 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 135N 1445E 135 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 140N 1432E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 144N 1414E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 154N 1369E 140 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 167N 1319E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 185N 1282E 130 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 014
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 014
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.8N 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.8N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.5N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.0N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.4N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.5N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 146.3E.
23MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052306Z IS 926 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052300 112N1468E 120
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
0223052306 118N1465E 135
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 014
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.8N 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.8N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.5N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.0N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.4N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.4N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.5N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 146.3E.
23MAY23. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052306Z IS 926 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 11.8N, 146.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME
DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 230600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230600UTC 11.8N 146.4E
MOVEMENT NW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 231800UTC 12.9N 145.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 240600UTC 13.4N 144.4E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
36HR
POSITION 241800UTC 13.7N 143.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 250600UTC 14.0N 141.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 260600UTC 14.8N 136.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
96HR
POSITION 270600UTC 16.1N 132.1E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
120HR
POSITION 280600UTC 18.0N 128.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 11.8N 146.5E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 13.5N 144.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 250600UTC 14.4N 141.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 260600UTC 15.4N 136.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 270600UTC 16.6N 131.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
120HF 280600UTC 18.4N 127.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 935 HPA
AT 11.8N 146.5E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 13.5N 144.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 14.4N 141.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 15.4N 136.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 16.6N 131.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 18.4N 127.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 11.4N 146.6E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 13.2N 144.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 250000UTC 13.9N 142.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 260000UTC 14.9N 138.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 270000UTC 15.9N 133.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
117HF 280000UTC 18.0N 128.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 230300
WARNING 230300.
WARNING VALID 240300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 950 HPA
AT 11.4N 146.6E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 13.2N 144.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230523013835
2023052300 02W MAWAR 013 01 010 07 SATL RADR 015
T000 112N 1469E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 124N 1461E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 132N 1452E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 137N 1440E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 142N 1425E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 152N 1383E 130 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 162N 1335E 135 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 183N 1296E 130 R064 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.4N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.2N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.7N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.2N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.2N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.3N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 146.7E.
23MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052300Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z,
232100Z AND 240300Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052300 112N1469E 115
0223052300 112N1469E 115
0223052300 112N1469E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.4N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.2N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.7N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.2N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.2N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.3N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 146.7E.
23MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052300Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z,
232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 11.2N, 146.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF
AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 230000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 2302 MAWAR
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230000UTC 11.2N 146.9E
MOVEMENT NNE 10KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 231200UTC 12.6N 146.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 240000UTC 13.3N 145.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 241200UTC 13.7N 143.8E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
48HR
POSITION 250000UTC 14.0N 142.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
72HR
POSITION 260000UTC 14.6N 137.8E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
96HR
POSITION 270000UTC 15.8N 133.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
120HR
POSITION 280000UTC 17.8N 128.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 11.2N 146.9E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 13.1N 145.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 250000UTC 13.9N 142.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 260000UTC 14.9N 138.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 270000UTC 15.9N 133.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
120HF 280000UTC 18.0N 128.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 230000
WARNING 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 955 HPA
AT 11.2N 146.9E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 13.1N 145.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 13.9N 142.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 14.9N 138.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 15.9N 133.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 18.0N 128.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 10.7N 146.8E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 12.8N 145.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 241800UTC 13.7N 143.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 251800UTC 14.6N 139.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 261800UTC 15.6N 134.1E 170NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
117HF 271800UTC 17.2N 129.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 222100
WARNING 222100.
WARNING VALID 232100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 960 HPA
AT 10.7N 146.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 12.8N 145.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230522203445
2023052218 02W MAWAR 012 01 350 06 SATL 020
T000 105N 1468E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 117N 1463E 115 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 127N 1454E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 134N 1444E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 139N 1430E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 148N 1392E 125 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 158N 1343E 125 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 173N 1299E 130 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.5N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.7N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.7N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.4N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.9N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.8N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.8N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 146.7E.
22MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052218Z
IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 41 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052212 99N1469E 90
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110
0223052218 105N1468E 110

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.5N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.7N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.7N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.4N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.9N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.8N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.8N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 146.7E.
22MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052218Z
IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 41 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 10.5N, 146.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS
AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 10.5N 146.8E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 12.7N 145.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 241800UTC 13.7N 143.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 251800UTC 14.6N 139.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 261800UTC 15.6N 134.1E 170NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
120HF 271800UTC 17.2N 129.7E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 221800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 960 HPA
AT 10.5N 146.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 12.7N 145.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 13.7N 143.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 14.6N 139.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 15.6N 134.1E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 17.2N 129.7E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 10.1N 146.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 12.4N 145.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 241200UTC 13.6N 143.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 251200UTC 14.3N 140.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 261200UTC 15.2N 135.1E 170NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 271200UTC 16.5N 130.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 970 HPA
AT 10.1N 146.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 12.4N 145.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230522130556
2023052212 02W MAWAR 011 01 340 05 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 100N 1469E 090 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 035 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 065 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 110N 1465E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 121N 1458E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 130N 1449E 105 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 136N 1436E 110 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 144N 1402E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 153N 1354E 120 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 167N 1306E 125 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 200 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.0N 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.0N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.1N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.0N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.6N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.4N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.3N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 146.8E.
22MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052212Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z
IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND
231500Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052206 95N1471E 90
0223052212 100N1469E 90
0223052212 100N1469E 90
0223052212 100N1469E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.0N 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.0N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.1N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.0N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.6N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.4N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.3N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.7N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 146.8E.
22MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052212Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z
IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND
231500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2302 MAWAR (2302)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MAWAR IS LOCATED AT 10.0N, 146.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS
AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 970 HPA
AT 10.0N 146.9E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 12.2N 145.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 13.6N 143.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 14.3N 140.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 15.2N 135.1E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 16.5N 130.5E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 220900
WARNING 220900.
WARNING VALID 230900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 975 HPA
AT 09.8N 146.9E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 12.0N 146.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230522073717
2023052206 02W MAWAR 010 01 330 06 SATL RADR SYNP 015
T000 095N 1470E 090 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 035 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 125 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 107N 1465E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 118N 1460E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 127N 1454E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 135N 1443E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 145N 1412E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 152N 1367E 125 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 163N 1320E 130 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 9.5N 147.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 147.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.7N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.7N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.5N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.5N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.2N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.3N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 146.9E.
22MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023052206Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052112 78N1480E 70
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052118 82N1476E 75
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052200 90N1473E 85
0223052206 95N1470E 90
0223052206 95N1470E 90
0223052206 95N1470E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 9.5N 147.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 147.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.7N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.7N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.5N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.5N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.2N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.3N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 146.9E.
22MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023052206Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 220300
WARNING 220300.
WARNING VALID 230300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 975 HPA
AT 09.0N 147.2E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 11.6N 146.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02W NWP 230522013815
2023052200 02W MAWAR 009 01 335 08 SATL 020
T000 091N 1477E 085 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 035 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 055 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 103N 1472E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 114N 1467E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 126N 1461E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 136N 1451E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 145N 1424E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 153N 1380E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 162N 1334E 125 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 147.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 147.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 10.3N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.4N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.6N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.6N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.5N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.3N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.2N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 147.6E.
22MAY23. TYPHOON 02W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SATAWAL, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z
AND 230300Z.//
0223051700 42N1520E 15
0223051706 46N1518E 15
0223051712 49N1513E 15
0223051718 52N1508E 15
0223051800 51N1500E 20
0223051806 50N1495E 20
0223051812 50N1489E 20
0223051818 46N1484E 20
0223051900 44N1488E 20
0223051906 46N1491E 20
0223051912 51N1495E 20
0223051918 52N1492E 20
0223052000 53N1493E 25
0223052006 55N1494E 30
0223052012 57N1493E 35
0223052018 61N1493E 45
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052100 68N1489E 50
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052106 74N1486E 60
0223052112 80N1483E 70
0223052112 80N1483E 70
0223052112 80N1483E 70
0223052118 84N1480E 75
0223052118 84N1480E 75
0223052118 84N1480E 75
0223052200 91N1477E 85
0223052200 91N1477E 85
0223052200 91N1477E 85
NNNN

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Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 212100
WARNING 212100.
WARNING VALID 222100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2302 MAWAR (2302) 980 HPA
AT 08.4N 147.5E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 11.2N 146.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 985 HPA
AT 07.7N 147.7E CAROLINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 10.8N 147.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 210900
WARNING 210900.
WARNING VALID 220900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 990 HPA
AT 07.7N 148.1E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 10.3N 147.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 210300
WARNING 210300.
WARNING VALID 220300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 992 HPA
AT 07.2N 148.7E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 09.9N 147.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 202100
WARNING 202100.
WARNING VALID 212100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 994 HPA
AT 06.9N 149.0E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 09.4N 147.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 201500
WARNING 201500.
WARNING VALID 211500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2302 MAWAR (2302) 998 HPA
AT 06.7N 148.9E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 08.7N 147.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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