Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for BRET-23
in Colombia, Venezuela, Aruba, Netherlands Antilles, Grenada, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 242031
TCDAT3

Remnants Of Bret Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Satellite images, surface observations, and ASCAT data from a few
hours ago indicate that Bret no longer has a well-defined low-level
center. The structure of the system more resembles an open wave or
trough with a couple of embedded vorticity maximums. Therefore, the
system does not meet the criteria needed to be considered a tropical
cyclone, and this is last advisory issued by NHC.

The remnants of Bret are still producing 35-kt winds in areas of
showers and thunderstorms just north of the northeastern portion of
Colombia. These winds are expected to decay as the system continues
to move quickly westward.

This is the last advisory on Bret. However, additional and future
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 13.1N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 242031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Bret Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...BRET OPENS INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 73.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Bret were located near
latitude 13.1 North, longitude 73.8 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the remnants of Bret will affect coastal
areas adjacent to the central Caribbean Sea through tonight. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Bret. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 242030
TCMAT3

REMNANTS OF BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
2100 UTC SAT JUN 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 73.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 73.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 72.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 73.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BRET. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 241447
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Bret again
this morning and found that the circulation is barely closed with
very light winds on the system's south side. However, winds
up to 40 kt are still occurring north of the center and are
strongest in the deep convection just north of the ABC Islands.
Therefore, Bret is being maintained as a 40-kt tropical storm for
now. However, continued northwesterly vertical wind shear of about
30 kt should cause the storm to weaken and the circulation to open
up soon, possibly even later today.

Bret continues to move swiftly to the west at about 18 kt. This
motion should continue until the storm dissipates. The main impact
from the system is expected to be gusty winds and areas of heavy
rain across portions of the ABC Islands and the northeastern
portion of Colombia during the next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 13.1N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 13.1N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 241446
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023

...BRET BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...AREAS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ABC
ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 71.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the ABC Islands and along the coast of the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia should monitor the progress of Bret.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 71.9 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bret is expected to
dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bret will affect coastal areas adjacent
to the central Caribbean Sea today. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 241445
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
1500 UTC SAT JUN 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 71.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 15SE 15SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 71.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 71.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240843
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

...BRET WEAKENING AS IT PASSES JUST NORTH OF ARUBA...
...FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 69.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF ARUBA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the ABC Islands and along the coast of the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia should monitor the progress of Bret.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 69.8 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast today and
tonight, and Bret is expected to dissipate over the central
Caribbean Sea tonight or early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bret will affect coastal areas adjacent
to the central Caribbean Sea today. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 240842
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0900 UTC SAT JUN 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 69.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 15SE 15SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 69.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 69.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.2N 72.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.4N 75.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 69.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 240843
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

Bret is passing just to the north of Aruba, while producing a
healthy burst of deep convection that has obscured the center in
infrared satellite imagery. Radar data from Curacao indicates that
the strongest activity is to the north of the ABC Islands, although
a band of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving over Aruba.
Scatterometer data showed peak winds of 35-40 kt to the north of
Bret's center, and along with overnight reconnaissance data, the
storm's intensity is lowered to 40 kt on this advisory.

Over 30 kt of northwesterly shear is affecting Bret, which is
expected to continue through the weekend. Therefore, Bret is still
forecast to degenerate into a trough by 36 hours, although global
model fields suggest this could happen as early as tonight.

Bret continues to move quickly toward the west, or 270/16 kt,
steered by subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic. Bret is
forecast to remain on this general trajectory during the next
several days, with its remnants reaching Central America on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 13.1N 69.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 13.2N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 13.4N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 240248
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Bret is currently comprised of an exposed swirl of low- to
mid-level clouds with occasional puffs of convection to the
northeast and east of the center. More widespread cloudiness and
convection associated with the storm are occuring well to the east
of the center over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. This poorly-
organized structure is due to the effects of 25 kt of westerly
vertical wind shear. Just-received reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show a central pressure near 1005
mb, along with SFMR and flight-level winds supporting an initial
intensity of 45 kt.

Continued moderate to strong shear should cause Bret to weaken, and
the global models forecast the system to degenerate into a trough
or tropical wave between 24-36 h. The intensity forecast follows
this guidance and shows the system dissipating after 24 h.

The initial motion is 270/16 on the south side of a low- to
mid-level ridge, and this general motion should continue until the
system dissipates. The new NHC forecast track is similar to, but a
little south of, the previous track. After dissipation, the
remnants of Bret should move quickly westward and reach Central
America sometime on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 12.9N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 13.0N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 13.2N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 240247
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

...BRET ABOUT TO PASS NORTH OF ARUBA, BONAIRE, AND CURACAO...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 68.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the ABC Islands should monitor the progress of Bret.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 68.1 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, the center of Bret will continue to move across the eastern
and central Caribbean Sea north of the ABC Islands tonight and
Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Bret is expected to
dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Bret is expected to continue to
diminish across the Lesser Antilles tonight.

SURF: Swells are likely to increase in areas adjacent to the
central Caribbean Sea through Saturday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 240246
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0300 UTC SAT JUN 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 68.1W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 15SE 15SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 68.1W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 67.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.0N 70.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.2N 74.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 68.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 232037
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

The intensity of Bret is decreasing as the system moves across the
eastern Caribbean Sea. The low-level center is now fully exposed
and deep convection is minimal. However, there is a relatively
large area of showers well to the east of the center that is
lingering over portions of the Lesser Antilles. An ASCAT pass from
earlier today showed peak winds between 40-45 kt, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. This estimate is
also in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Bret is currently experiencing about 20 kt of vertical wind shear,
and since the shear is anticipated to increase, continued weakening
is expected. All of the models show a steady decline in Bret's
strength, and the new forecast is similar to the previous one.
Dissipation is expected to occur on Sunday.

The tropical storm continues to move quickly westward at 17 kt on
the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. This motion should
continue during the next couple of days taking Bret across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea just north of the ABC Islands.
The NHC track forecast is again a touch to the south of the previous
one and remains on the fast side of the model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 13.1N 66.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 13.1N 69.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 13.2N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 13.2N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 232034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

...BRET LOSING STRENGTH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 66.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests the ABC Islands should monitor the progress of Bret.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 66.6 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, the center of Bret will continue to move across the eastern
and central Caribbean Sea north of the ABC Islands during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Bret is expected to dissipate over the central Caribbean
Sea by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Bret is expected to continue to
diminish across the Lesser Antilles this evening as the storm moves
westward across the eastern to central Caribbean. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across southern
portions of the Lesser Antilles from St Lucia, south to Grenada.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to gradually subside
along the Lesser Antilles through the day. Swells are likely
to increase in areas adjacent to the central Caribbean Sea
through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 232034
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
2100 UTC FRI JUN 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 66.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 15SE 15SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 66.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 65.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.1N 69.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.2N 72.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.2N 76.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 66.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 231436
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Bret is maintaining its intensity for now. Deep convection has
increased over the center during the past few hours and there
remains a larger area of disorganized thunderstorms on the system's
east side. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
the storm this morning and on their last pass they found maximum
flight-level winds of 60 kt and peak SFMR winds around 45 kt. These
data support holding the intensity steady at 50 kt. Bret is pulling
away from the Lesser Antilles, but showers and thunderstorms along
with gusty winds will likely continue across portions of that island
chain for much of the day.

Bret is moving beneath an upper-level trough axis currently, but by
tonight it should be located on the west side of the trough, which
should result in a notable increase in northerly vertical wind shear
and intrusions of dry air. Therefore, steady weakening is expected
and the NHC intensity forecast follows the theme of the model
guidance. Bret will likely open into a trough on Sunday.

The tropical storm continues to move quickly westward at 17 kt on
the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. This motion should
continue during the next couple of days taking Bret across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea. The NHC track forecast is a
touch to the south of the previous one, primarily due to the initial
position, and remains on the fast side of the model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is moving westward over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, but
trailing rainbands with embedded gusty winds continue to affect
portions of the Windward Islands. These conditions should gradually
subside through the day.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 13.3N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 13.4N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 13.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 13.6N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 13.6N 77.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

...BRET MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LINGER IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 64.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests adjacent to the southeastern Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of Bret.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 64.7 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, the center of Bret will continue moving westward away from
the Windward Islands and across the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Bret is expected to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea
by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Gusty winds should continue to subside across the Windward
Islands over the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Bret is expected to diminish
across the Lesser Antilles later today as the storm continues to
move westward across the Caribbean. Additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles
from Guadeloupe south through St Vincent and the Grenadines,
including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban flooding
is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to gradually subside
along the Lesser Antilles through the day. Swells are likely
to increase in areas adjacent to the central Caribbean Sea
later today and on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 231433
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
1500 UTC FRI JUN 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 64.7W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 15SE 15SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 64.7W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 63.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.4N 67.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.6N 74.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.6N 77.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 64.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 231152
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

...BRET PULLING AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 63.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for St. Lucia. The government of France has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

In this case, a Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are occurring within the warning area.

Interests adjacent to the southeastern Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of Bret.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, the center of Bret will continue moving westward away from
the Windward Islands and across the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Bret is expected to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by
Saturday night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to diminish within
the tropical storm warning areas later this morning.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south through St. Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban
flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin subsiding
along the Lesser Antilles through the day. Swells are likely
to increase in areas adjacent to the central Caribbean Sea
later today and on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230903
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 16...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Updated to include discontinuation of the Tropical Storm Warning
for Dominica.

Bret's center is now over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, but
convective activity extends more than 300 n mi to the east across
the Windward Islands and adjacent Atlantic waters. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level
winds of 60 kt and SFMR winds of 49 kt to the north of the center
on its last pass before heading back to base, and the initial
intensity is therefore maintained at 50 kt. The plane had found
that Bret's central pressure had dropped again, back down to 1001
mb.

Bret continues to move quickly westward, or 270/16 kt, to the south
of an area of high pressure located over the western Atlantic. The
subtropical ridge is expected to continue steering Bret quickly
westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the
next couple of days. There are no changes to the track model
guidance, or the track forecast reasoning, and the official NHC
forecast is a little faster than the model consensus aids, hedging
toward the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Bret is approaching an upper-level trough located over the eastern
Caribbean Sea, and the resulting deep-layer shear over the storm is
analyzed to be about 25 kt out of the west-southwest. Even stronger
shear and a dry mid-level environment are expected to cause Bret to
gradually weaken during the next couple of days, with global model
fields showing the system degenerating into a trough over the
central Caribbean Sea some time over the weekend. The NHC forecast
shows dissipation by Sunday, but some model fields suggest it could
happen earlier than that.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is moving westward over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, but
trailing rainbands with embedded gusty winds continue to affect
portions of the Windward Islands. These conditions should gradually
subside through the day.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for St. Vincent and
the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.4N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 13.6N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 13.8N 68.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 13.9N 72.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 13.9N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 230900
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

The government of Dominica has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Dominica.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230850
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Bret's center is now over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, but
convective activity extends more than 300 n mi to the east across
the Windward Islands and adjacent Atlantic waters. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level
winds of 60 kt and SFMR winds of 49 kt to the north of the center
on its last pass before heading back to base, and the initial
intensity is therefore maintained at 50 kt. The plane had found
that Bret's central pressure had dropped again, back down to 1001
mb.

Bret continues to move quickly westward, or 270/16 kt, to the south
of an area of high pressure located over the western Atlantic. The
subtropical ridge is expected to continue steering Bret quickly
westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the
next couple of days. There are no changes to the track model
guidance, or the track forecast reasoning, and the official NHC
forecast is a little faster than the model consensus aids, hedging
toward the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Bret is approaching an upper-level trough located over the eastern
Caribbean Sea, and the resulting deep-layer shear over the storm is
analyzed to be about 25 kt out of the west-southwest. Even stronger
shear and a dry mid-level environment are expected to cause Bret to
gradually weaken during the next couple of days, with global model
fields showing the system degenerating into a trough over the
central Caribbean Sea some time over the weekend. The NHC forecast
shows dissipation by Sunday, but some model fields suggest it could
happen earlier than that.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is moving westward over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, but
trailing rainbands with embedded gusty winds continue to affect
portions of the Windward Islands. These conditions should gradually
subside through the day.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for St. Vincent and
the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.4N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 13.6N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 13.8N 68.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 13.9N 72.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 13.9N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230850
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

...BRET'S TRAILING RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 420 MI...670 KM E OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

In this case, a Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are occurring within the warning area.

Interests adjacent to the southeastern Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of Bret.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the
forecast track, the center of Bret will continue moving westward
away from the Windward Islands and across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Bret is
expected to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by Saturday
night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to diminish within
the tropical storm warning areas later this morning.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south through St. Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban
flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin subsiding
along the Lesser Antilles through the day. Swells are likely
to increase in areas adjacent to the central Caribbean Sea
later today and on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 230849
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0900 UTC FRI JUN 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 30SE 30SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.6N 65.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.8N 68.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.9N 72.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.9N 75.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 62.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230551
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
200 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

...CENTER OF BRET NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 61.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the southeastern
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Bret.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located over the eastern Caribbean Sea near latitude 13.4 North,
longitude 61.9 West. Bret is moving toward the west near 17 mph
(28 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is
expected to move westward across the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea today and Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next
couple of days, and the system is likely to dissipate over the
central Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. Grantly Adams International Airport on Barbados
recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust
to 56 mph (91 km/h) in thunderstorm activity well to the east of
Bret's center. Tropical storm conditions are also still being
reported on St. Lucia and Martinique.

The minimum central pressure measured from the reconnaissance
aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning areas through this morning.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south through St. Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban
flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230241
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

The center of Bret is currently near St. Vincent in the Windward
Islands. Satellite imagery and radar data from Barbados indicate
that the cyclone is losing organization due to increasing vertical
wind shear, with only minimal convection currently near the center.
The remainder of the convection is in bands and clusters well
removed from the center in the eastern semicircle. Data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft shows that the maximum
surface winds are now near 50 kt, and that will be the initial
intensity.

The initial motion is now 270/16 kt. Bret is on the south side of
a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should
steer the cyclone or its remnants almost due west for the next
several days. The forecast track calls for Bret to move away from
the Lesser Antilles during the next several hours and then move
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.
There are no significant changes to either the track forecast
guidance or the forecast track since the previous advisory.

Bret is moving into an area of moderate to strong southwesterly
shear associated with an amplifying upper-level trough over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. This, combined with some dry air
entrainment, should cause steady weakening starting on Friday
morning and continuing for the next several days. The NHC
intensity forecast continues to trend downward and now calls for
Bret to degenerate to a trough or tropical wave Saturday night or
Sunday in agreement with the global model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is moving across the Lesser Antilles at this time as a
strong tropical storm. Conditions in the area should improve later
tonight as the storm moves away.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Vincent
and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica. There is a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous
waves along the coast within the warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 13.3N 61.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 13.5N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 13.6N 70.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 13.7N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 230240
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0300 UTC FRI JUN 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 61.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 45SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 61.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 60.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.4N 63.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.5N 67.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 13.6N 70.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.7N 74.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 61.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230240
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...CENTER OF BRET NEAR ST. VINCENT...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 61.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Hurricane Watch
for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the southeastern
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Bret.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 61.1 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Bret is expected to move through and away from
the Windward Islands during the next several hours, and then move
westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next couple of
days, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central
Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. The Hewanorra International Airport on St. Lucia
recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a wind
gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). Tropical-storm conditions are also
being reported from Martinique.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data and earlier surface observations is 1004 mb
(29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning areas through tonight.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south through St. Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban
flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles through Friday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222351
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...CENTER OF BRET APPROACHING ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 60.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 60.3 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to move
across the Windward Islands during the next several hours, and then
move westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next couple of
days, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central
Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. Several automated stations on Martinique have
recently reported sustained winds of 40-45 mph (65-70 km/h) and
wind gusts of 50-60 mph (85-95 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban
flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles through Friday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 222033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023


The center of Bret is very near Barbados. Surface observations from
the island have recorded wind gusts of tropical storm force during
the past few hours. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have
recently been reported in St. Lucia. Based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and an ASCAT-C pass from earlier today, the
initial intensity has been nudged downward to 55 kt, and the
strongest winds are north of the center. Radar data from Barbados
and satellite images indicate that Bret is strongly sheared with
deep convection mostly confined to the northeast part of the
circulation.

Bret has begun to accelerate and is now moving just south of due
west on the southeast side of a subtropical ridge. Since the ridge
is expected to remain in place, Bret should continue westward at a
quick pace. There continues to be some forward speed differences
among the model solutions, but given recent trends and the overall
steering pattern, the NHC track forecast remains on the faster side
of the guidance envelope. This should take the storm across the
Lesser Antilles this evening and overnight and then across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.

Bret will likely maintain its strength while it moves across the
Lesser Antilles tonight. However, progressively stronger shear and
dry air should cause the storm to gradually lose strength on Friday
and Saturday. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than
the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.
Dissipation is expected to occur on Sunday, following the global
model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles this evening
and tonight as a strong tropical storm.

2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Martinique, and Dominica.
There is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and
dangerous waves along the coast within the warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 13.4N 59.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.5N 62.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.7N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 13.9N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 13.9N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 13.8N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...BRET VERY NEAR BARBADOS...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 59.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 59.6 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to move
across the Lesser Antilles this evening and tonight, and then move
westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next couple of
days, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central
Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban
flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles through Friday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 222032
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
2100 UTC THU JUN 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 59.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 45SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 59.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 58.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.7N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 13.9N 68.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.9N 72.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.8N 75.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 59.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221811 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 13A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
200 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

Corrected statement in the Watches and Warnings Section

...BRET VERY NEAR BARBADOS...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to
a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados and St. Vincent and the
Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 58.9 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to move
across the Lesser Antilles this evening and tonight, and then move
westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next couple of
days, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central
Caribbean Sea by Saturday night or early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban
flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles through Friday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221753
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
200 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...BRET VERY NEAR BARBADOS...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to
a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 58.9 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to move
across the Lesser Antilles this evening and tonight, and then move
westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next couple of
days, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central
Caribbean Sea by Saturday night or early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban
flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles through Friday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 221436
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

Bret is nearing the Lesser Antilles and remains close to hurricane
strength. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
the storm this morning and found winds to support maintaining the
initial intensity at 60 kt. Bret remains very titled in the
vertical, with the low-level center located near the southwestern
edge of the main area of deep convection. The aircraft found the
strongest winds on the north side of the circulation, with generally
light winds on the southwest side of Bret.

The tropical storm continues to move westward at 12 kt on the south
side of a subtropical ridge. Since the ridge is expected to remain
in place, Bret should continue its westward motion but at a faster
pace. This should take the storm across the Lesser Antilles this
evening and overnight and then across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday. Although the models are in fair
agreement, there is some spread in the forward speed among the model
solutions. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one
and remains on the fast side of the guidance envelope, in best
agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models.

Bret is expected to maintain its intensity when it moves across the
Lesser Antilles tonight. However, weakening should begin shortly
after that due to a pronounced increase in westerly shear and dry
air intrusions. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN solutions. Bret is
still expected to degenerate into an open wave Saturday night or
early Sunday before reaching the western Caribbean Sea.

There is a risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall for several
islands within the Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the
center crosses the island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles this evening
and tonight as a strong tropical storm.

2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Martinique and Dominica. There is a risk of flooding from heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within
the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional watches or
warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.8N 57.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 14.5N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 14.6N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 14.5N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...BRET NEARING THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 57.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 57.7 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to
move across the Lesser Antilles this evening and tonight, and then
move westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today while Bret
approaches the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is anticipated to begin
tonight or Friday after Bret passes the Lesser Antilles, and the
system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by
Saturday night or early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas and possible within the
watch areas later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban
flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles through Friday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 221434
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
1500 UTC THU JUN 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 57.7W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 45SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 57.7W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 66.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.6N 70.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 57.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221146
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...BRET NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 57.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...265 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to
approach the Lesser Antilles today, move across the Lesser Antilles
this evening and tonight, and then move westward across the eastern
and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today while Bret
approaches the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is anticipated to begin
tonight or Friday after Bret passes the Lesser Antilles, and the
system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by
Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center, especially to the north.

The minimum central pressure partially based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas and possible within the
watch areas later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban
flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are beginning to affect portions of
the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220853
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

Bret threw some interesting data at us during the couple of hours
after the release of the previous advisory. On the last pass of the
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft through Bret's center,
the plane measured SFMR winds as high as 69 kt and a dropsonde
surface pressure of 996 mb with 31 kt of wind. Significant
mid-level westerly shear is still affecting the system, and a 0539
UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed a well-defined mid-level eye
feature displaced about a degree to the east of Bret's low-level
center. It appears that the strong SFMR winds were measured beneath
the strong convection in the western mid-level eyewall feature, so
it's possible that they were transient and convectively driven.
That said, Bret's initial intensity was raised to 60 kt on the 2 am
intermediate advisory out of an abundance of caution, and that
remains the current estimate. Another reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Bret in a few hours and will hopefully
confirm whether or not the storm is still producing winds that
strong.

Vertical shear is expected to gradually increase over the next
couple of days as Bret approaches an upper-level trough located over
the eastern Caribbean Sea. The storm could maintain its intensity
or fluctuate in intensity through much of today, but it is expected
to begin weakening by tonight once it crosses the Lesser Antilles
and moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Global model fields
indicate that Bret should degenerate into a trough over the central
Caribbean Sea by day 3, which is shown in the official forecast.

There are no changes in the track forecast reasoning. Bret is
moving toward the west, or 280/13 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level
ridge to its north. An accelerated westward motion is expected
during the next few days as Bret weakens, and the NHC track forecast
is a little faster than the consensus aids, hedging toward the
faster GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are reminded that NHC's track
forecasts have average errors of about 40 n mi at 24 hours, and
there is risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands
within the Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center
crosses the island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles today and then
move across those islands this evening and tonight as a strong
tropical storm.

2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
Martinique and Dominica. There is a risk of flooding from heavy
rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within
the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional watches or
warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 13.7N 56.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 13.9N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 14.1N 61.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 14.3N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 14.6N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...BRET POISED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 56.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 56.6 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to
approach the Lesser Antilles today, move across the Lesser Antilles
this evening and tonight, and then move westward across the eastern
and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today while Bret
approaches the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is anticipated to begin
tonight or Friday after Bret passes the Lesser Antilles, and the
system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by
Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center, especially to the north.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas and possible within the
watch areas later today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban
flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Lesser Antilles today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220852
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0900 UTC THU JUN 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 56.6W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 45SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 56.6W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 55.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.9N 58.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.1N 61.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N 65.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.4N 68.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.6N 72.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 56.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220556
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
200 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND STRONGER WINDS AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN BRET...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. LUCIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...465 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Watch for St.
Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to
approach the Lesser Antilles today, move across the Lesser Antilles
late today and tonight, and then move westward across the eastern
and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
today while Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is
anticipated to begin tonight or Friday after Bret passes the Lesser
Antilles, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central
Caribbean Sea by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas and possible within the
watch areas late today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent
and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain.
Urban flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Lesser Antilles today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220238
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Bret has changed little in intensity during the past few hours.
The aircraft reported a central pressure near 999-1000 mb with
maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 65 kt to the northeast of the
center, along with a maximum surface wind estimate of 56 kt from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer. Based on these, the initial
intensity remains 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Bret
continues to generate strong convection near and northeast of the
center. However, it continues to be affected by northwesterly shear
that is undercutting the storm's outflow pattern.

Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 hours as
Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles. After that time, the cyclone
will encounter increasing vertical wind shear due to an upper-level
trough over the eastern Caribbean. This should cause steady to
rapid weakening, and Bret is now expected to degenerate into an
open trough between 60-72 hr in agreement with the global model
guidance. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of
the intensity guidance.

Bret continues to move westward, or 280/14 kt, under the influence
of low- to mid-level ridging to its north. Some increase in
forward speed may occur over the Caribbean as Bret weakens. There
has been little change in the track guidance since the last
advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous
track with the center passing through the Lesser Antilles in about
24 hours. Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have
average errors of about 40 n mi at 24 hours, and there is risk of
strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands within the
Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center crosses the
island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday and then move across those islands late Thursday and
Thursday night as a strong tropical storm.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique,
and Dominica, and there is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall,
strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning
area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and St
Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional warnings are possible for
some islands in the Lesser Antilles on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.5N 55.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.7N 57.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 14.7N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220237
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR DOMINICA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 55.2W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Dominica has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 55.2 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to
approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move across the Lesser
Antilles late Thursday and Thursday night, and then move westward
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day
or so while Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is
anticipated to begin Thursday night or Friday after Bret passes the
Lesser Antilles, and the system is likely to dissipate over the
central Caribbean Sea by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
areas and possible within the watch areas late Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent
and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain.
Urban flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220236
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0300 UTC THU JUN 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 55.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 55.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 54.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.7N 57.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 70.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 55.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 212346
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE APPROACHING BRET...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 54.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 54.6 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to
approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move across the Lesser
Antilles late Thursday and Thursday night, and then move westward
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day
or so while Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is
anticipated to begin Thursday night or Friday after Bret passes the
Lesser Antilles, and the system is likely to dissipate over the
central Caribbean Sea by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, especially to the north. NOAA buoy 41040 to the
northeast of Bret recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph
(61 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
areas and possible within the watch areas late Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall
could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher
terrain. Urban flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 212105
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
505 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 212034
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

Despite being under the influence of mid-level westerly shear, Bret
appears to have intensified slightly. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a fairly solid area of 50- to
55-kt winds to the northeast of the center, and the central pressure
has fallen to 1000 mb. In addition, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt, so Bret's initial intensity is
therefore raised to 55 kt. The deep convection continues to favor
the eastern side of the circulation, although a burst of convection
recently formed over the center.

Although there is a small possibility of slight additional
strengthening, continued moderate mid-level shear is likely to keep
Bret's intensity hovering around 55 kt for the next 24 hours as it
approaches the Lesser Antilles. Most of the intensity guidance
supports this scenario. After that time, stronger deep-layer shear
is forecast to develop as Bret nears an upper-level trough over the
Caribbean Sea, and those conditions are expected to lead to
weakening after the cyclone crosses the Lesser Antilles island
chain. Global model fields continue to show Bret degenerating into
an open trough by Saturday, however a 72-hour forecast point is
still shown in this forecast for continuity purposes.

Bret continues to move westward, or 280/13 kt, under the influence
of low- to mid-level ridging to its north. This steering flow is
not expected to change, but Bret is likely to move faster toward
the west once it begins weakening in 36 to 48 hours. The track
guidance envelope has been stable, and therefore the updated NHC
track forecast has been changed very little from the morning
forecast. Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have
average errors of about 45-50 n mi at 36 hours, and there is risk of
strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands within the
Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center crosses the
island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday and then move across those islands late Thursday and
Thursday night as a strong tropical storm, bringing a risk of
flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves
along the coast.

2. Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it
is still too early to specify the exact location and magnitude of
where Bret's associated hazards could occur. A Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for St. Lucia and Martinique, and a Tropical
Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and Dominica. Additional
warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 13.3N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 13.8N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 14.2N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 14.5N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 14.7N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 14.9N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 212034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS BRET SLIGHTLY
STRONGER...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 53.9W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings may be required
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 53.9 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected
to approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move across the Lesser
Antilles late Thursday and Thursday night, and then move westward
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
during the next day or so while Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles.
Weakening is anticipated to begin Thursday night or Friday after
Bret passes the Lesser Antilles, and the system is likely to
dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by Saturday.

Aircraft data indicate that Bret is a little larger in size, and
tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 105 miles (165
km) from the center, especially to the north. NOAA buoy 41040 to
the north of Bret recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (68
km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1000 mb
(29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
areas and possible within the watch areas late Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall
could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher
terrain. Urban flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 212033
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
2100 UTC WED JUN 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 53.9W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 53.9W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 53.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.8N 58.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.2N 61.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.5N 65.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.7N 68.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.9N 72.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 53.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211753
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
200 PM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BRET...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 53.3W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for these islands today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 53.3 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
several days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected
to approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move across the Lesser
Antilles late Thursday and Thursday night, and then move westward
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
increase in strength is forecast before Bret reaches the Lesser
Antilles. Weakening is expected by Friday once Bret moves over the
Caribbean Sea, and the system is likely to dissipate on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft confirm that the minimum
central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area and possible within the watch areas late Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent
and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain.
Urban flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 211455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

Bret's cloud pattern remains ragged, and cloud top temperatures have
warmed a bit compared to earlier this morning. Since there has not
been an appreciable increase in organization, the initial intensity
remains 50 kt, which is a blend between the latest subjective
numbers from TAFB and SAB, and objective final-T numbers (which
have been decreasing). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Bret in a few hours and should
provide a better estimate of the storm's intensity and wind field
size.

The storm still appears to be under the influence of moderate
westerly shear below the cirrus level, with the bulk of the deep
convection displaced to the east of the center. Bret still has an
opportunity to strengthen slightly over the next day or so, and the
NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA
solutions through 36 hours. Stronger deep-layer shear is expected
to cause weakening in about 36 to 48 hours after Bret moves into the
eastern Caribbean Sea, and global model fields indicate that the
circulation could open up into a trough by Saturday. As a result,
dissipation is now shown in the official forecast by day 4, although
it could occur sooner than that.

Low- to mid-level ridging continues to push Bret westward at 280/12
kt. The steering flow is expected to strengthen some in the next
couple of days, and Bret is therefore forecast to accelerate toward
the west on Thursday and Friday as it's approaching and passing
across the Lesser Antilles. There have been no significant shifts
in the track guidance on this cycle, and the new NHC track forecast
is therefore unchanged from the 5 am forecast. Users are reminded
that NHC's track forecasts have average errors of about 45-50 n mi
at 36 hours, and there is risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall
for several islands within the Lesser Antilles regardless of
exactly where the center crosses the island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday and then move across those islands late Thursday and
Thursday night as a strong tropical storm, bringing a risk of
flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves
along the coast.

2. Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it
is still too early to specify the exact location and magnitude of
where Bret's associated hazards could occur. A Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Watch
remains in effect for Barbados, Dominica, and Martinique.
Additional warnings are likely for some islands in the Lesser
Antilles later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 13.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 13.2N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 13.5N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 13.9N 60.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 14.6N 67.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 14.7N 70.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211454
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...BRET CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 52.5W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for these islands today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 52.5 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
several days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is
expected to approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, move across
the Lesser Antilles late Thursday and Thursday night, and then move
westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some increase in strength is forecast before Bret reaches the
Lesser Antilles. Weakening is expected by Friday once Bret moves
over the Caribbean Sea, and the system is likely to dissipate on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area and possible within the watch areas late Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent
and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain.
Urban flooding is also possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 211454
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
1500 UTC WED JUN 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 52.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 52.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 51.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.2N 54.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.5N 57.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 60.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 67.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N 70.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 52.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211150
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...BRET EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 52.0W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for these islands today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 52.0 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to move across
portions of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night, and then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some increase in strength is possible before Bret reaches the
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to Grenada,
including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Isolated urban
flooding is also possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 210845
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

The storm's cloud pattern consists of a ragged-looking CDO with a
few very cold cloud tops, along with some banding features over the
eastern semicircle. The current intensity estimate is set at 50 kt,
which is the average of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB. Although the overall upper-tropospheric outflow pattern
remains fairly well defined, the outflow is beginning to become
slightly impeded over the western portion of the circulation. An
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Bret
this afternoon, and should provide a better estimate of the storm's
intensity and structure.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so,
but when the cyclone moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea, the
atmospheric environment is expected to become increasingly
unfavorable for intensification. Dynamical guidance indicates that
the flow associated with an upper-level trough over the eastern
Caribbean, and a stronger trough farther west, should create a
significant increase in vertical shear over Bret. As a result, the
tropical cyclone is likely to begin weakening in a couple of days,
and global models are in good agreement that the system will
degenerate into a wave as it approaches the western Caribbean Sea.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and
near or a little above the model consensus.

Bret continues its mainly westward track with an initial motion of
280/14 kt. A mid-level ridge should be maintained to the north of
the tropical cyclone for the next few days. This steering pattern
will maintain a slightly north of due westward movement until the
system dissipates. Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts
have average errors of about 60 n mi at 48 hours, and it is too soon
to know exactly where Bret's center will move across the Lesser
Antilles island chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday morning and then move across those islands Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night as a strong tropical storm, bringing a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous
waves along the coast.

2. Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it
is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where Bret's
associated hazards could occur. A Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia, and
additional watches and warnings are likely for these and other
islands in the Lesser Antilles today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 12.8N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.1N 53.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 13.8N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 14.2N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 14.5N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 14.8N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 15.0N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...BRET A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 51.4W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for these islands today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 51.4 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to move across
portions of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night, and then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength is possible
before Bret reaches the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to Grenada,
including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Isolated urban
flooding is also possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 210844
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0900 UTC WED JUN 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 51.4W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 51.4W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 50.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.1N 53.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.8N 58.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.2N 61.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.5N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 69.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 15.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 51.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210545
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
200 AM AST Wed Jun 21 2023

...BRET HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS....


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 50.9W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings
will likely be required for these and other islands on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 50.9 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Bret is expected move across portions
of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and
then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Bret
is expected to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Lesser
Antilles Thursday and Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent
and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain.
Isolated urban flooding is also possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 210236
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

Bret has become a little better organized this evening, with
increased convection near and north of the center and some outer
bands developing in the eastern semicircle. This development has
lead to satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB increasing
to 45 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
Unfortunately, the ASCAT overpasses this evening again managed to
miss Bret.

Satellite imagery continues to suggest some vertical wind shear is
undercutting Bret's otherwise favorable looking outflow pattern and
slowing the rate of intensification. This shear is expected to
continue for the next 36 h or so, and the storm is forecast to
continue to slowly strengthen during this time. The new intensity
forecast calls for Bret to have a 55-kt intensity when it passes
near or over the Lesser Antilles around the 48-h point. After
that, stronger shear associated with an upper-level trough over the
eastern Caribbean should stop intensification and cause Bret to
weaken. Indeed, the global models continue to forecast the system
to degenerate to a tropical wave by 96 h. The new intensity
forecast will continue to have a 96 h point followed by dissipation
before 120 h. However, it will show a faster weakening from 72-96 h
than the previous forecast.

The initial motion is westward or 280/15 kt. There is again little
change to either the track forecast guidance or the track forecast
since the last advisory, with low- to mid-level ridging north of
Bret expected to steer the cyclone westward through dissipation.
Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have average errors
of about 60 n mi at 48 hours, and it is too soon to know exactly
where Bret's center will move across the Lesser Antilles chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday morning and then move across the islands Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night as a tropical storm, bringing a risk of
flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves
along the coast.

2. Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it
is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where Bret's
associated hazards could occur. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia, and
additional watches and warnings are likely for these and other
islands in the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 12.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.9N 52.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 13.3N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 13.7N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 14.6N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 15.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210236
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE....

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 50.2W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings
will likely be required for these and other islands on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 50.2 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Bret is expected move across portions
of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and
then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Bret is expected to be a tropical storm
when it reaches the Lesser Antilles Thursday and Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of
the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Isolated
urban flooding is also possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 210235
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0300 UTC WED JUN 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 50.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 50.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 49.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.9N 52.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 54.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.7N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.0N 60.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 63.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 15.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 50.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 210009
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
810 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MARTINIQUE...

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Martinique.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 202341
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
800 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. LUCIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 49.5W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Additional tropical storm watches will likely be
required for other islands later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 49.5 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Bret is expected move across portions
of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and
then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Bret is
expected to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Lesser Antilles
Thursday and Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday morning, storm total rainfall amounts of
4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe southward to St.
Lucia. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible across
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The heavy rainfall
could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher
terrain. Isolated urban flooding is also possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 202100
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR DOMINICA...

The Government of Dominica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Dominica.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 202047
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

A burst of deep convection developed over Bret's center during the
past several hours, although a 1641 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass showed
that most of the convective activity is located within a band
wrapping around the east side of the circulation. Based on the
slightly improved convective structure, the initial intensity is
raised to 40 kt, which is a blend of T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, respectively.

Despite upper-level cirrus clouds radiating away from the storm in
all quadrants, it still appears that there is some westerly shear
affecting the system below the cirrus level. Global model
forecasts suggest that this setup will continue for the next couple
of days, but it shouldn't be strong enough to prevent some
additional strengthening while Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles.
The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN
consensus aids through 60 hours, and continues to show Bret
crossing the islands as a 55-kt tropical storm. Just after
that time, Bret will be approaching an upper-level trough located
over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and that feature is likely to cause
more significant deep-layer shear over the storm by Friday.
Because of the increase in shear, all of the global models show
Bret opening up into a trough by day 4. For continuity purposes,
the official forecast continues to show a day 4 point, but it's
likely that Bret will have dissipated by then.

The initial motion remains westward, or 280/17 kt. There is very
little change to the forecast track reasoning, with low- to
mid-level ridging expected to steer Bret toward the west until it
dissipates by day 4. The track guidance has not shifted any
farther south on this cycle, so the new NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous one. Users are reminded that NHC's track
forecasts have average errors of 60 to 75 n mi from 48 to 60 hours,
and it is too soon to know exactly where Bret's center will move
across the Lesser Antilles chain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
Thursday morning and then move across the islands Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night as a tropical storm, bringing a risk of
flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves
along the coast.

2. Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it
is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where Bret's
associated hazards could occur. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for Barbados, and additional watches are likely for other
islands within the Lesser Antilles later tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 12.2N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.6N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 13.1N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 13.9N 58.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 14.2N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 14.4N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 14.7N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 202046
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 48.6W
ABOUT 835 MI...1350 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret. Tropical storm watches will likely be required
for other islands later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 48.6 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Bret is expected move across portions
of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and
then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, and Bret is expected to be a tropical storm when it
reaches the Lesser Antilles Thursday and Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday morning, storm total rainfall amounts of
4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe southward to St.
Lucia. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible across
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The heavy rainfall
could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher
terrain. Isolated urban flooding is also possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 202046
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
2100 UTC TUE JUN 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 48.6W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 48.6W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 47.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.6N 50.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.1N 53.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.9N 58.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.2N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 65.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 14.7N 73.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 48.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 201445
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

Bret's low-level center has become exposed this morning, surrounded
by bands of deep convection in nearly all quadrants. Upper-level
outflow still appears established over the system, but the exposed
center may suggest that some moderate westerly shear is affecting
Bret below the cirrus level. Bret's initial intensity remains 35
kt based on T2.5 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.
Scatterometer passes continue to miss Bret, keeping us from getting
a better handle on the system's intensity and size.

Global model forecast fields suggest that the mid-level westerly
shear affecting Bret is unlikely to abate during the next few days,
and it's likely that deeper-layer shear will also increase in about
2 to 3 days. This forecast scenario has led to some changes in
Bret's intensity forecast. Aside from the HWRF, which is an
outlier scenario, none of the other reliable intensity models bring
Bret to hurricane intensity. In addition, all of the global models
show Bret opening up into a trough in 2 to 4 days as it's passing
the Lesser Antilles or after it moves into the eastern Caribbean
Sea. As a result, Bret's forecast intensity in the NHC prediction
has been decreased, still allowing for the possibility of some
strengthening, but keeping the system below hurricane strength. In
addition, the new forecast now shows dissipation by day 5, but if
the global models are correct, that could occur even sooner.

Bret is moving a little faster toward the west, or 275/18 kt.
Low- to mid-level ridging over the Atlantic is expected to keep
Bret on a westward trajectory through the forecast period, with
only some slight fluctuations in forward speed. The track guidance
has shifted southward on this cycle, under the assumption that
low-level ridging will have a greater impact on preventing a
weaker Bret from gaining much latitude. One important note is that
the weaker Bret remains, it could also move faster than what is
shown in the NHC forecast (and what is suggested by the ECWMF
model).


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles through
early Thursday and then move across the islands Thursday and
Thursday night as a tropical storm, bringing a risk of flooding
from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the
coast.

2. Given the larger-than-usual uncertainty in the track and
intensity forecasts, it is too early to specify the location and
magnitude of where Bret's associated hazards could occur. However,
everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands
should closely monitor updates to the forecast for Bret. Tropical
storm watches may be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles
later today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 11.9N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 12.3N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 12.7N 51.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 13.2N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 13.6N 57.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 13.9N 60.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 14.2N 63.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 14.4N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 201444
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 47.0W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system. Tropical storm watches may be required for some
islands later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 47.0 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the center of Bret could move across portions of the
Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Bret is expected to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Lesser
Antilles Thursday and Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of
10 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from
Guadeloupe southward to St. Lucia. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches are possible across Barbados and St. Vincent and the
Grenadines. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding,
especially across areas of higher terrain. Isolated urban flooding
is also possible.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 201444
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
1500 UTC TUE JUN 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 47.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 47.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.3N 49.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.7N 51.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.2N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.6N 57.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 60.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 63.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 14.4N 70.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 47.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 200838
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

Although Bret remains a well-organized tropical cyclone on satellite
imagery, its overall appearance has changed little since yesterday
evening. The cloud pattern consists of a developing CDO with some
banding features mainly over the eastern portion of the circulation.
Cirrus motions show that the upper-level anticyclonic outflow
pattern remains well-defined. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt, and objective ADT estimates from
UW-CIMMS are also near this value. Therefore, the advisory
intensity is held at 35 kt at this time.

Bret continues to move slightly north of due west or at about 280/15
kt. A mid-level high pressure area is expected to remain positioned
to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next few days. Thus,
little change to the motion is likely through 72-96 hours. In the
latter part of the forecast period, a mid-tropospheric trough near
the Florida peninsula should cause the deep layer ridge to weaken
somewhat. However, it is assumed that the cyclone will be weakening
by that time and steered more by the low-level easterlies. There
continues to be a significant spread in the 3-5 day track model
guidance, probably due in large part to differences in the predicted
intensity of Bret. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one except a little farther to the south near the end of
the period. The simple and corrected consensus model solutions are
even farther to the south.

Both the atmospheric and oceanic environment look conducive for
strengthening during the next couple of days with low shear and
abnormally warm ocean waters. Therefore, the forecast continues to
call for Bret to become a hurricane in a couple of days. By 72
hours, however, vertical shear is predicted to increase in
association with an upper-level trough over the eastern Caribbean
and drier mid-level air should begin to get entrained into the
system. This will likely cause a weakening trend to commence after
Bret moves into the Caribbean as suggested by the global models.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC
prediction and is above the model consensus and the SHIPS/LGEM
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to initially strengthen and then move across
the Lesser Antilles near hurricane intensity on Thursday and
Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong
winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,
it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where
these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor
updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 11.7N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 12.1N 46.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 12.6N 49.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 13.1N 52.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 13.9N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 14.3N 60.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 15.0N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 16.0N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 200837
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0900 UTC TUE JUN 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 44.7W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 44.7W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 44.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.1N 46.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.6N 49.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.1N 52.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.9N 57.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.3N 60.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 15.0N 65.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 200837
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2023

...BRET CONTINUES WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 44.7W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 44.7 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to to continue for the next several days. On
the forecast track, the system should be approaching the Lesser
Antilles by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Bret could become a hurricane
in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 200238
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

This evening, Bret's structure on satellite has evolved from a
curved banding pattern to a growing central dense overcast near
the estimated center. The exact location of the center is tricky to
pinpoint though, most likely positioned just west of the deepest
central convection. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both
T2.5/35-kt at 00 UTC, 37-kt from UW-CIMSS, and unfortunately there
have not been any helpful microwave or scatterometer passes this
evening. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt for this
advisory in agreement with the majority of the available data.

The initial motion appears to be just north of due west at 275/16
kt. A deep-layer ridge that is currently positioned overhead of Bret
will initially follow along with the cyclone, maintaining a west or
north of due west heading for the next 48-72 hours. As the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week, a mid- to
upper-level trough is forecast to amplify somewhat, with the
vertical depth of Bret likely to influence its future track. Once
again there is a large spread in both along and cross track model
predictions, with the ECMWF on the south and west end, and the GFS
and some of the strongest hurricane regional models (HWRF, HAFS-A)
on the north and east end. The consensus aids have shifted ever so
slightly south and west from the previous forecast cycle, and the
NHC track will follow suit, especially beyond 60-h. However, there
continues to be larger than normal uncertainty in the track forecast
given the large spread of the guidance suite.

In the short-term, environmental conditions remain quite favorable
for additional intensification, with shear remaining under 10-kt,
and ample mid-level moisture and anomalously warm SSTs maintaining a
favorable thermodynamic environment. Thus, steady intensification
seems likely for the next day or so. However, between 36-60 h,
mid-level moisture begins to markedly decrease along Bret's forecast
track, and both the GFS and ECMWF suggest mid-level northwesterly
shear may begin to undercut the more favorable upper-level
easterlies. This is where the intensity forecast becomes tricky,
since a more vertically coherent system could be more resilient
against these less favorable conditions versus one that remains less
aligned and more susceptible to dry air intrusion. The intensity
guidance also diverges over this time frame, with some of the
regional hurricane guidance showing continued intensification,
compared to leveling off from the global model guidance. The latest
NHC forecast is a bit more conservative at this time frame, but
still shows a peak intensity at hurricane intensity between 48-60 h.
Thereafter, even drier air and additional shear is likely to begin a
weakening trend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows a bit
more weakening than the previous cycle.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to initially strengthen and then move across
the Lesser Antilles near hurricane intensity on Thursday and
Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong
winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,
it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where
these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor
updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 11.4N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 11.8N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 12.3N 48.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 14.3N 59.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 15.0N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 16.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 200236
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

...TROPICAL STORM BRET EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 43.5W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 43.5 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is
expected to to continue for the next several days. On the forecast
track, the system should be approaching the Lesser Antilles by late
this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Bret could become a hurricane
in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 200235
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
0300 UTC TUE JUN 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 43.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 43.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.8N 45.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.3N 48.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.3N 59.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 43.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 192043
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

Satellite imagery continues to show that the system is becoming
better organized. GOES 1-min data shows convective banding and a
dense central overcast, with the low-level center embedded on the
northwest side of the overcast. Given the satellite trends and
latest Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is
set to 35 kt, and the depression is named Tropical Storm Bret.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for further strengthening
over the next few days, with much warmer than normal SSTs along with
plentiful mid-level moisture and light shear. The NHC forecast
continues to show a gradual increase in wind speed, similar to the
model consensus. However, vertical wind shear is forecast to
increase by most of the model guidance on day 3 in response to an
upper-level trough, along with more dry air nearby. Thus, the NHC
forecast shows a slow weakening after that point while Bret is
over the eastern Caribbean. There continues to be larger than usual
uncertainty, due to the wide spread between the stronger regional
hurricane models and weaker global guidance.

The initial motion estimate is 280/18 kt. A large ridge of high
pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to cause Bret
to move westward over the next several days. As the system nears the
Lesser Antilles late this week, the ridge should weaken, causing the
storm to move more toward the west-northwest. The main source of
track uncertainty continues to be tied to how strong Bret becomes,
with the models farthest to the right (HWRF, HAFS) being stronger
than the consensus, while the left-leaning models (ECMWF, UKMET)
showing significant weakening at long range. Given the large track
and intensity spread, the NHC forecast remains near the model
consensus, only a bit faster than the previous cycle. The latest
forecast remains a low confidence prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is forecast to strengthen and move across the Lesser
Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday, bringing a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and
dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,
it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where
these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor
updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 11.3N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 11.7N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 12.2N 47.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 12.7N 50.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 13.2N 52.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 13.7N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 14.3N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 15.5N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 17.0N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 192042
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

...TROPICAL STORM BRET FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 42.2 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is
expected to to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the system should be approaching the Lesser
Antilles late this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Bret could become
a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 192042
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
2100 UTC MON JUN 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 42.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 42.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 41.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.7N 44.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.2N 47.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.7N 50.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.2N 52.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.7N 55.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.3N 58.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 15.5N 63.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 17.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 42.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 191458
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

Satellite images indicate that the tropical wave over the central
Atlantic has become better organized this morning. GOES-16 1-min
visible imagery shows that the center has become well defined near
a developing central dense overcast with prominent convective
banding in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity is set to
30 kt, based on Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, and recent
satellite trends indicate this system is close to tropical-storm
status.

The initial motion estimate is 275/18 kt, a bit uncertain because
the center has just recently become trackable. A large ridge of
high pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to cause
the depression to move westward over the next several days. As the
system nears the Lesser Antilles late this week, the ridge should
weaken, causing the system to move more toward the west-northwest.
However, there is considerable uncertainty in how much of a right
turn could occur because it is somewhat tied to the intensity of the
cyclone. A stronger system would tend to move more to the right due
to the upper-level flow, while a weaker system would continue more
westward into the Caribbean. For now, this forecast lies near the
model consensus, and adjustments are likely in future advisories.
This should be considered a low confidence track forecast since
this type of forecast situation can result in large errors.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening over
the next few days, with a much warmer than normal ocean in the
depression's path, along with plentiful mid-level moisture and
light shear. This should promote strengthening through midweek.
However, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase by most of the
model guidance around day 3 in response to an upper-level trough.
Thus the NHC forecast shows the intensity leveling off at the end
of the forecast, consistent with the middle of the guidance
envelope. This intensity forecast is also more uncertain than
normal, due to the differences in the model suite, along with the
aclimatological nature of this system.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and move across the
Lesser Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday, bringing a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and
dangerous storm surge and waves.

2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,
it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where
these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor
updates to the forecast for this system and have their hurricane
plan in place.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 11.0N 40.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 11.2N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 11.7N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 12.2N 48.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 14.9N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 16.5N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 191456
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
1500 UTC MON JUN 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 40.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 40.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 39.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.2N 42.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.7N 45.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.2N 48.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 191456
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 40.3W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 40.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the system should be approaching the Lesser
Antilles late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to
become a hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kelly

>