Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DON-23
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 241502
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Don Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 PM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023

...DON NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.6N 40.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Don
was located near latitude 47.6 North, longitude 40.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 20
mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until
dissipation tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Don should continue to gradually weaken, before dissipating
tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 241456
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Don Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 PM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023

Satellite imagery shows that Don lacks sufficient deep convection to
classify the system as a tropical cyclone, and it is now post
tropical. The initial wind speed remains at 40 kt for this
advisory, based on a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass. Don should
slowly weaken over the next day or so while moving over cold waters
and within high vertical wind shear.

The system is moving east-northeastward at about 17 kt, and this
general motion will likely to continue until Don dissipates in
about a day. Most of the global guidance has post-tropical Don
opening up into a trough and becoming absorbed by a larger
extratropical low over the north Atlantic tomorrow. Very few changes
were made to the previous NHC forecast.

Don has been a very long-lasting tropical cyclone (including
subtropical stages) for the month of July. Preliminary data
indicate that the storm is the 5th longest-lasting system on record
for the month, just behind Emily of 2005.

This is the last advisory on Don. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSDAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 47.6N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 25/0000Z 48.1N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 241455
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 40.7W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 40.7W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 41.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 48.1N 36.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.6N 40.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 240827
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 AM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023

Deep convection has evaporated near Don, though it hasn't been free
of convection long enough to declare it post-tropical yet. The
initial wind speed is lowered to 40 kt, in concert with the Dvorak
estimates that are decreasing as fast as the rules allow. Don
should become post-tropical soon and continue to weaken due to
persistent cold waters and shear.

The storm is moving east-northeastward at about 16 kt, and that
general motion is likely to persist until the system dissipates
in about a day. All of the global models show Don opening up into
a trough in 18-24 hours, so the dissipation phase is moved to that
time. No other significant changes were made to the forecast.

Don has been a very long-lasting tropical cyclone (including
subtropical stages) for the month of July. Preliminary data
indicate that the storm is the 5th longest-lasting system on
record for the month, just behind Emily of 2005.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 47.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 47.9N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 240826
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 43.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.0N 43.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.7N 44.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 47.9N 39.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.0N 43.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 240826
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 AM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023

...LONG-LIVED DON ON ITS LAST LEGS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.0N 43.0W
ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 47.0 North, longitude 43.0 West. Don is moving
toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue until dissipation late today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Don should continue to weaken, and it is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 240231
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 AM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023

Don continues to slowly weaken and has lost just about all of its
deep convection due to very cool waters. An ASCAT-B pass around
00Z showed peak winds of about 40 kt, and because the instrument
can't always resolve the maximum winds in the storm, the initial
intensity is set to 45 kt. Don is well on its way to become a
post-tropical cyclone and it will likely complete the process later
today.

The storm is moving northeastward at 17 kt in the flow on the
northwest side of a subtropical ridge. A turn to the east-northeast
and then the east are expected later today and tonight while the
storm moves in generally zonal flow on the north side of the ridge.
Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast. Don is
expected to continue to weaken due to cool waters and dry air
entrainment until it dissipates early Tuesday.

Don has been a very long-lasting tropical cyclone (including
subtropical stages) for the month of July. Preliminary,
up to this point the storm is tied for the 6th longest-lasting
system on record for the month.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 46.3N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 47.4N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 25/0000Z 48.4N 37.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 240230
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 AM GMT Mon Jul 24 2023

...DON EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.3N 44.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 44.8 West. Don is moving
toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn to the
east-northeast and then the east are expected later today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Don is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 240230
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 44.8W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 44.8W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.9N 45.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 47.4N 41.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 48.4N 37.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N 44.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 232031
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Sun Jul 23 2023

Tropical Storm Don is moving northeastward this afternoon over the
North Atlantic's cooler sea surface temperatures, and deep
convection is starting to wane. The convective band from earlier
this morning has become more fragmented and not as well defined.
Visible satellite and a microwave AMSR2 pass earlier however, still
showed that Don has a compact low-level center, and a scatterometer
ASCAT-B pass showed winds of 48-50 kt in the southeast quadrant.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have also started to
trend downward with this advisory cycle. Given the ASCAT-B pass and
the subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity for this
advisory is lowered to 50 kt.

Don is starting to lose its overall convective pattern and should
begin to rapidly weaken tonight and tomorrow. Available global
model guidance suggest that Don should lose any remaining deep
convection within the next 18 to 24 hours and become a post-tropical
cyclone at that time. The intensity forecast remains similar to
the previous forecast, with Don dissipating in about 48 hours.

The system is moving to the northeast at 15 kt. Don will continue
to move to the northeast, with a slight increase in forward speed
the remainder of today, before turning to the east-northeast
tomorrow due to the steering flow around the northern side of the
subtropical ridge. Guidance remains tightly clustered, and there
was very little change to the forecast this cycle.

The storm is moving up the list of longest-lasting tropical cyclones
on record for July (including subtropical stages). Preliminary,
Don is tied for 10th, and the cyclone could make the top 5
longest-lasting for July if it lasts through early Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 45.2N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 46.6N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 47.9N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 25/0600Z 48.8N 34.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 232030
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Sun Jul 23 2023

...DON A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.2N 46.5W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 45.2 North, longitude 46.5 West. Don is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). The storm will
continue to move to the northeast the rest of today, before
turning east-northeastward tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Don is likely
to lose tropical characteristics tonight or tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 232030
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
2100 UTC SUN JUL 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.2N 46.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.2N 46.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.7N 47.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 46.6N 44.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 47.9N 39.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 48.8N 34.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.2N 46.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 231445
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Sun Jul 23 2023

Tropical Storm Don continues to move north-northeast over cooling
sea surface temperatures. Visible and infrared satellite imagery
still show a well-defined center, with a convective band mainly
concentrated on the northern and eastern side of the system. The
subjective Dvorak satellite estimates for this advisory were steady
from TAFB at T3.5/55 kt, with SAB coming in a little lower. Given
that there is still a well-defined center, and the aforementioned
convective band, the initial intensity for this advisory remains
at 55 kt.

Don should begin to rapidly weaken as it moves over very cool
waters with increasing vertical wind shear. Simulated satellite
imagery from both the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that it should
lose any remaining deep convection within 24 hours and become a
post-tropical cyclone. The intensity forecast remains similar to
the previous forecast, with Don dissipating in 48 hours.

The system is moving north-northeast, at 14 kt. Don will
begin to increase forward speed to the northeast later today and
east-northeast tomorrow due to the steering flow around the
northern side of the subtropical ridge. Guidance remains tightly
clustered around the previous forecast, and there were very little
changes made this advisory.

The storm is moving up the list of longest-lasting tropical cyclones
on record for July (including subtropical stages). Preliminarily,
Don is tied for 10th, and the cyclone could make the top 5
longest-lasting for July if it lasts through early Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 43.9N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 45.5N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 47.1N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 25/0000Z 48.3N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 231445
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Sun Jul 23 2023

...DON MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.9N 47.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 43.9 North, longitude 47.8 West. Don is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). The storm should
turn northeastward later today and east-northeastward tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Don is likely to lose
tropical characteristics tonight or tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 231444
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 47.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 47.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 45.5N 45.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 47.1N 42.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 48.3N 37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.9N 47.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 230831
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Sun Jul 23 2023

Don is moving over much cooler water, and its structure is
rapidly deteriorating. While the latest satellite pictures still
show a well-defined center, the eyewall convection has fallen apart
and become more fragmented. Dvorak estimates are falling quickly,
and the initial wind speed is lowered to 55 kt. Don should
continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over very cool waters with
increasing shear, and it should lose any remaining deep convection
within 24 hours and become a post-tropical cyclone. The new
forecast is lower than the previous one, closest to the GFS model.

The storm continues moving north-northeast, now at 14 kt. Don
should move faster to the northeast today and east-northeast on
Monday due steering flow mostly around the northern side of
the subtropical ridge. Guidance is tightly packed around the
previous forecast, and little change was made for this advisory,
except to move up dissipation 12 hours based on the global model
fields.

If you were thinking Don has been around a while considering the
time of year, you'd be right. The storm is moving up the list of
longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record for July (including
subtropical stages). Preliminarily, Don is tied for 10th, and the
cyclone could make the top 5 longest-lasting for July if it lasts
through early Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 42.6N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 46.4N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 24/1800Z 47.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 230829
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Sun Jul 23 2023

...DON FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.6N 48.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 42.6 North, longitude 48.9 West. Don is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). The storm should
turn northeastward later today and east-northeastward on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Don is
likely to lose tropical characteristics by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 230829
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 48.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 48.9W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 49.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 46.4N 44.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 47.5N 39.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.6N 48.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 230236
TCDAT5

Hurricane Don Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023

Don's structure on satellite imagery remains well organized for a
tropical cyclone at such a high latitude in late July. A small but
distinct eye has persisted, surrounded by moderately cold cloud
tops. However, the coldest cloud tops are beginning to erode on the
north edge of the eye, and the upper-level outflow has also become
more restricted in that direction. These factors likely indicate
that Don is starting to feel the effects of nearby cooler waters
and increased vertical wind shear that will ultimately lead to a
swift decline in intensity. For now, the latest subjective Dvorak
estimates were T4.0 (65 kt) from both SAB and TAFB, and objective
intensity estimates currently range from 53 kt to 69 kt. It is
worth noting that UW-CIMSS ADT estimates have been much lower,
apparently due to that objective technique failing to pick up on the
eye pattern seen on satellite today. Discounting that outlier, a
blend of other subjective and objective data supports an initial
intensity of 65 kt for this advisory. Don's wind radii have also
been adjusted some due to a helpful ASCAT-B pass at 2348 UTC.

Now that Don is moving north of a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, the
cyclone should soon encounter much colder sea-surface temperatures
along its track. Thus, steady weakening is expected to begin
shortly. As Don quickly loses its deep convection, the cyclone is
forecast to become post-tropical in 36 h, with the circulation
expected to open up into a trough axis after 48 h. This forecast is
in good agreement with the global and hurricane-regional model
guidance.

Don is now moving to the north-northeast a bit faster than before at
015/12 kt. A continued turn to the northeast with a bit more
acceleration is anticipated overnight into tomorrow as Don is
embedded within southwesterly steering flow between a subtropical
ridge to its southeast and a deep-layer trough located over eastern
Canada. This pattern should persist until Don dissipates, with the
system continuing to recurve eastward over the next 48 h. The track
guidance has shifted a bit faster than the prior cycle but still
remains along a similar trajectory. Thus the NHC track forecast
remains very close to the prior track, but just a little faster.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 41.4N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 43.3N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 45.5N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 47.2N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/0000Z 48.1N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 230234
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Don Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023

...DON STILL A HURRICANE BUT BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.4N 49.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Don was located
near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 49.6 West. Don is moving toward
the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn northeastward is
expected tomorrow, with a northeastward to east-northeastward motion
expected to continue until the system dissipates Monday night or
early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is expected to begin shortly, and Don is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 230233
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0300 UTC SUN JUL 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 49.6W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 49.6W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 49.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.3N 48.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 45.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 47.2N 42.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 48.1N 37.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.4N 49.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 222046
TCDAT5

Hurricane Don Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023

Don's cloud pattern continued to become better organized after the
release of the previous advisory with convection wrapping around an
eye in infrared imagery. Since that time, the cloud tops over the
western semicircle have warmed somewhat, but a 1648 UTC AMSR2
microwave pass showed a well-defined low- to mid-level eye with deep
convection surrounding it. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 1800 UTC
ranged from T4.0 (65 kt) from TAFB and T3.5 (55 kt) from SAB, with
objective estimates in the 60 to 63 kt range. Since subjective
estimates have yielded a T4.0 throughout much of the afternoon, the
initial intensity has been raised to 65 kt, making Don a hurricane.

Today's strengthening was the result of the storm passing over the
warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, however it will move north of
those warmer waters later this evening, and Don has likely peaked in
intensity. Weakening should begin overnight, with a faster rate of
weakening expected Sunday through Monday as Don moves over even
colder waters and the vertical wind shear increases. The cyclone is
expected to become post-tropical by Sunday night, and dissipate by
Monday night or early Tuesday.

Don is moving northward or 005 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to turn northeastward late tonight as it becomes embedded
within southwesterly flow between a ridge to its east and a broad
trough over eastern Canada. A northeastward to east-northeastward
motion should then continue until the system dissipates in 2-3 days.
The track guidance is again tightly clustered and no significant
changes to the previous official forecast were required.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 40.1N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 42.0N 49.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 44.5N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 46.4N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 24/1800Z 47.7N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 222044
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Don Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023

...DON BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.1N 50.0W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Don was located
near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 50.0 West. Don is moving toward
the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward turn is expected
later tonight or early Sunday, and a northeastward to
east-northeastward motion should continue until the system
dissipates Monday night or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening should begin later tonight or
early Sunday, and Don is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone
Sunday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 222043
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
2100 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 50.0W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 50.0W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 50.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.0N 49.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.5N 47.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 46.4N 44.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 47.7N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.1N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 221445
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 22 2023

Don's convective structure has increased in organization this
morning. A curved band has wrapped completely around the center
with a ragged eye-like feature becoming apparent during the past
couple of hours. Earlier microwave imagery also revealed this
feature, but the convection surrounding it was fragmented.
Subjective satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB were T3.5 (55 kt)
and T3.0 (45 kt) at 1200 UTC, but given the more recent increase in
organization, the initial intensity is raised to the higher end
of those estimates at 55 kt.

Don has made its anticipated northward turn. A northward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected today as the
cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge. After that time, Don should turn north-northeastward and
then northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies. The
dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new NHC
track is essentially an update of the previous advisory.

Don is currently crossing the Gulf Stream with SSTs of around 26C.
Although it is not explicitly shown below, it is possible that some
slight additional strengthening occurs within the next 6-12 hours
while Don is over the slightly warmer Gulf Stream waters. After
that time, a sharp decrease in SSTs along the track of Don and
increasing vertical wind shear should cause weakening. Don is
expected to become post-tropical around the 36 hour time period
and dissipate by 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 39.1N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 40.7N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 43.3N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 45.5N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 24/1200Z 46.8N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 25/0000Z 48.0N 38.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 221445
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 22 2023

...DON A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 50.1W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 50.1 West. Don is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion should
continue today. A northeastward turn is expected later tonight or
early Sunday, and a northeastward motion should continue into
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is
possible today. Weakening should begin tonight and Don is forecast
to become a post-tropical cyclone Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 221444
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 50.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 50.1W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 49.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.7N 50.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.3N 48.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 45.5N 46.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 46.8N 42.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 48.0N 38.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 50.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220838
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Sat Jul 22 2023

Don continues to generate curved convective bands around the center,
although the overall organization has not changed much during the
past several hours. There has also been little change in the
various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates, so
the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 50 kt.

The initial motion is 315/12 kt as Don is located on the
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge situated over the north-
central Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada
is expected to move eastward and erode the western portion of the
ridge during the next 24-48 h. This should allow Don to turn
northward and then recurve northeastward into the westerlies. Based
on the tightly clustered track guidance, the new NHC forecast is
similar to, but a little faster than, the previous forecast.

Don could strengthen a little during the next 12 h as it passes over
the Gulf Stream. After that, the cyclone should move over much
colder water and into increasing vertical wind shear. This
combination should cause weakening, and the new intensity forecast
calls for the system to become post-tropical between 36-48 h and
degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h. The new intensity forecast
has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 38.3N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 39.9N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 42.3N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 44.6N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 46.5N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 24/1800Z 47.8N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z 48.7N 36.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Sat Jul 22 2023

...DON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 49.6W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. Don is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the north is
expected later today, followed by a northeastward motion on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible today. However, weakening is
forecast to begin by tonight or Sunday morning, Don is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday or Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220837
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 49.6W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 49.6W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 49.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.9N 50.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.3N 49.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.6N 47.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 46.5N 44.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 47.8N 40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 48.7N 36.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 49.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220248
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 21 2023

Don has generally changed little during the past several hours.
Deep convection remains fairly well organized in curved bands that
wrap around the southern half of the circulation. The initial
intensity of 50 kt is based on the earlier ASCAT data and the
storm's steady nature. This value is above the latest satellite
intensity estimates and could be a little generous.

Don is moving northwestward at 12 kt and is located on the
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge situated over the
north-central Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level trough over eastern
Canada is expected to gradually slide eastward, eroding the western
portion of the ridge. This pattern change should cause Don to turn
northward on Saturday and then northeastward and eastward later in
the weekend and early next week. The NHC track forecast is a little
to the right of the previous one from 36 h to 72 h, trending toward
the latest models.

The storm could strengthen a little on Saturday while it moves over
a patch of warmer water, however, any intensification should be
short-lived. Don is expected to move over sharply cooler waters on
Sunday and into an environment of increasing vertical wind shear
early next week. These environmental conditions should cause Don to
begin weakening in about 24 hours and it will likely become a
post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday. The system should dissipate
completely in 3 or 4 days. No change was made to the previous NHC
intensity forecast and this one lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 37.4N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 38.7N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 41.0N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 43.5N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 45.6N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 24/1200Z 47.4N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/0000Z 48.4N 38.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220247
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 21 2023

...DON HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 48.6W
ABOUT 680 MI...1100 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 48.6 West. Don is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the north is
expected on Saturday followed by a northeastward motion on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next several
hours, however, weakening is forecast to begin by Saturday night,
Don is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220247
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0300 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 48.6W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 48.6W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.7N 49.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.0N 50.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.5N 48.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 45.6N 46.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 47.4N 42.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 48.4N 38.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 48.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 212032
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Fri Jul 21 2023

There has been a continued increase in banding in association
with Don today. In visible satellite imagery, the primary
convective band wraps nearly completely around the center, however
the cloud tops have warmed over the northwestern portion of the
storm recently. A late arriving ASCAT-C overpass that caught the
northwestern portion of Don this morning revealed peak winds in the
43-45 kt range. Given the typical undersampling of that instrument
and the fact that it missed the potentially stronger northeastern
quadrant of the cyclone, the initial intensity has been increased
to 50 kt, which is a little above the latest subject Dvorak wind
speed estimates.

Despite the slightly stronger initial intensity, the overall
intensity forecast philosophy has not changed much. Don will be
moving over the slightly warmer waters of the Gulf stream later
tonight and Saturday which could result in some slight
strengthening. The official forecast allows for this possibility
and is close to the various intensity consensus aids through 24
hours. By early Sunday, Don is forecast to move north of the Gulf
stream and over much colder SSTs, which should cause steady
weakening. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models
suggest that Don will struggle to produce deep convection by late
Sunday, marking the system's transition to a post-tropical cyclone.
Dissipation is predicted just after 72 hours.

The storm has made its anticipated northwestward turn. A mid-level
ridge to the north-northeast of Don is expected to shift eastward
during the next day or so and allow the cyclone to turn northward
on Saturday. After that time, Don is forecast to turn northeastward
within low- to mid-level southwesterly flow between the ridge and a
broad trough over eastern Canada. The dynamical model envelope
made a noticeable eastward shift at 36 hours and beyond, which
required an eastward adjustment to the NHC track forecast. The new
track lies along the western edge of the guidance envelope and is
not as fast east as the multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 36.6N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 37.9N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 40.0N 50.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 42.4N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 44.6N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 24/0600Z 47.1N 45.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 24/1800Z 48.7N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 212032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 47.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 47.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 47.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.9N 48.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.0N 50.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.4N 50.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.6N 48.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 47.1N 45.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 48.7N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 47.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Fri Jul 21 2023

...DON SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 47.5W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 47.5 West. Don is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A north-northwestward
to northward motion is forecast on Saturday, followed by a
northeastward turn on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight
or Saturday. Weakening is forecast to begin by Saturday night, and
Don is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 211445
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 21 2023

Shortly after the release of the previous advisory convection
nearly wrapped completely around the center of Don. Since the
time, the convection has become somewhat more fragmented, but there
is still a well-defined curved band that wraps about three-quarters
of the way around Don's center. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from
SAB and TAFB are a unanimous T3.0 or 45 kt, so the initial
intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory. A recently arriving
scatterometer overpass missed the core of the cyclone so there is
no information on the system's strength from that data source
this morning.

The initial motion estimate is still west-northwestward or 300
degrees at 9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north-northeast
of the cyclone is forecast to shift eastward during the next 24 to
36 hours causing Don to turn northwestward, and then northward
during the next day or two. After that time, Don is expected to
turn northeastward within low- to mid-level southwesterly flow
between the ridge and a broad trough over eastern Canada and the
northeastern United States. The dynamical models are tightly
clustered and little overall change was made to the previous NHC
track forecast.

Don remains over marginally warm sea surface temperatures and
within a relatively dry mid-level environment so little overall
change in strength is predicted during the next 12 to 24 hours.
The system is forecast to pass over the slightly warm waters of
the Gulf stream on Saturday, but this is not likely to result in a
significant change in strength. By Sunday morning, Don will have
moved north of the Gulf stream and over much colder SSTs. This
should result in weakening and the system's transition into a
post-tropical cyclone. Dissipation is predicted by the global
models in a little more than 3 days, and the official forecast
follows suit.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 35.8N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 36.9N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 38.8N 49.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 41.1N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 43.7N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 46.1N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 24/1200Z 48.4N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211444
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 21 2023

...DON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 46.5W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM W OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 46.5 West. Don is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest with a slightly faster forward speed is expected later
today. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast on
Saturday, followed by a north-northeastward turn by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast during the
next day or so. Weakening is forecast to begin by Sunday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 211444
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 46.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 46.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 46.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 48.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 49.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.1N 50.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.7N 50.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 46.1N 49.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 48.4N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 46.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210849
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Fri Jul 21 2023

Don has changed little in appearance during the past few hours. A
band of convection has rotated around to the southern and eastern
portions of the circulation. Microwave imagery indicates the
storm still has a well-defined low- to mid-level center. The latest
subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
unchanged from the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial
intensity remains at 45 kt.

The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt around the southern
periphery of a strong low- to mid-level ridge. Model guidance
indicates that the ridge will build to the north and east which is
expected to turn Don to the northwest and then northward in the next
couple of days. By day 3, the cyclone is predicted to turn
northeastward in the low-level southwesterly flow ahead of a trough
forecast to be over the western Atlantic. Minor adjustments have
been made to the NHC track forecast and it remains close to the
model consensus aids.

Marginal atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear to be preventing
Don from strengthening. These conditions are not expected to change
much in the next day or so, and therefore the storm's intensity is
predicted to remain relatively steady. Don should begin to weaken
in about 36 h when it moves to the north over cooler waters and into
an environment with stronger deep-layer shear. The NHC intensity
prediction is unchanged from the previous advisory and still shows
Don becoming a remnant low by 72 h and dissipated by 96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 35.4N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 36.3N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 38.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 40.0N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 42.4N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 45.1N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 47.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210846
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Fri Jul 21 2023

...DON CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 45.6W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 45.6 West. Don is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next day or so. A turn to the
northwest and then north is forecast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days. Weakening is forecast to begin later this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210845
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 45.6W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 45.6W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 45.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.3N 47.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.4N 50.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 45.1N 50.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 47.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 45.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210236
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 AM GMT Fri Jul 21 2023

The band of convection noted on the eastern side of Don during the
previous advisory has wrapped around to the western side of the
tropical cyclone tonight. However, Don still is struggling to mix
out the dry air that earlier disrupted its convective structure.
ASCAT-C at 2339 UTC and ASCAT-B at 0026 UTC nicely captured Don's
circulation, and both had a peak wind retrieval of 40 kt, a bit
higher than earlier. However, there have been no changes to the
subjective Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB this cycle and so the
initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory.

Don continues to move west-northwestward at 290/8 kt. The storm is
being steered by a strong low- to mid-level ridge that should
gradually first shift northeastward and then eastward of the cyclone
as a short-wave trough currently over the Great Lakes ejects
eastward into the Canadian Maritimes over the next few days. This
synoptic pattern should result in Don turning to the northwest and
then north over the next 36-48 hours. Afterwards, Don should
complete recurvature northeast into the higher latitudes as it opens
up into a trough. The track guidance consensus has stabilized not
too far off from the prior forecast track, and very few adjustments
were needed to the official NHC track for this forecast cycle.

Don's structure appears quite healthy in the low-levels, per earlier
37 GHz microwave imagery which showed evidence of a closed cyan
ring. However, the combination of dry mid-level air and marginal
(24-25 C) sea surface temperatures appear to be keeping deep
convection (below -50C) in check while it attempts to wrap around
the center. These factors are likely to limit intensification, and
little change in strength is forecast over the next 36 h or so.
Weakening is then forecast to begin by 48 h as Don approaches the
north wall of the Gulf Stream and encounters a more hostile
upper-level flow pattern. Most of the global and regional-hurricane
model guidance show Don ceasing to produce organized convection by
72 h, and the storm is forecast to become post-tropical at that
time, followed by dissipation in 96 h. This forecast is in good
agreement with the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 34.8N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 35.4N 46.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 36.9N 48.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 38.8N 49.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 41.1N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 43.6N 51.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 46.2N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210233
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0300 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 44.7W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 44.7W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.4N 46.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 48.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 49.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.1N 50.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.6N 51.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 46.2N 49.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210233
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 AM GMT Fri Jul 21 2023

...DON STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 44.7W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 44.7 West. Don is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next day or so. A turn to the
northwest and then north is forecast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days. Weakening is forecast to begin later this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 202055 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 27...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 PM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023

Corrected headline

...DON CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 43.7W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 43.7 West. Don is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the northwest is
forecast by Friday night, followed by a northward turn over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Weakening is forecast to begin later this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 202033
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 PM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023

A band of deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of
Don's circulation since the previous advisory, however, there has
been little overall change in the cyclone's organization today.
The latest subjective Dvorak CI numbers from SAB and TAFB were
unchanged from this morning so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.
Although that could be a little generous based on the earlier
scatterometer data, it is best to hold the intensity steady until
the next ASCAT overpass this evening.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Don continues to move
west-northwestward (290 degrees) but at a slightly faster forward
speed of 9 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge that is currently
located to the north of Don is forecast to shift eastward during
the next 2 to 3 days. This should cause Don to turn northwestward
on Friday and then northward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over
the western Atlantic later this weekend. After that time, the
cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in the low- to mid-level
southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The
dynamical model envelope has again shifted to the west and the NHC
track forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Marginal sea surface temperatures, moderate shear, and nearby dry
mid-level have prevented additional strengthening today. Those
conditions are not forecast to change much during the next couple of
days and therefore, little overall change in strength is expected
during that period. Don is forecast to move north of the Gulf
stream and over much cooler waters in 60 to 72 hours, and it is
likely to become post-tropical shortly thereafter. The global
models show the system becoming an open trough in 4 to 5 days and
the official forecast calls for dissipation by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 34.7N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 35.1N 45.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 36.2N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 37.8N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 39.7N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 42.1N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 44.6N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 49.7N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 202032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 PM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023

....DON CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 43.7W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 43.7 West. Don is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the northwest is
forecast by Friday night, followed by a northward turn over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Weakening is forecast to begin later this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 202031
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
2100 UTC THU JUL 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 43.7W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 43.7W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 43.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.1N 45.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.2N 47.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.8N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.7N 50.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.1N 51.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.6N 50.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 49.7N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 43.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 201446
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 PM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023

Don has not intensified this morning, as a curved convective band
north of the center has begun to weaken. However, visible
satellite imagery and a recent scatterometer pass indicate that
the storm remains well-organized around a clear circulation center.
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates continue to
support an initial intensity of 45 kt, which is unchanged from the
prior advisory. However, this may be a bit generous based on the
late-arriving scatterometer pass.

The initial motion is now 290/7 kt. Don is expected to turn to
the northwest and then northward during the next 72 h, associated
with a low to mid-level ridge that is forecast to build north and
east of the forecast track. The guidance has continued to shift
westward after 36 h, and the forecast track after 48 h is thus
shifted slightly west of the previous forecast. The forecast track
represents a blend of the consensus aids and the prior forecast.
After 72 h, Don is forecast to recurve northeastward and north of
the mid-level ridge.

Conditions continue to appear favorable for some strengthening
during the next day or so, and the intensity forecast continues to
indicate an increase in intensity to 50 kt during early portion of
the forecast period. After 24 h, as Don begins to traverse cooler
sea surface temperatures, the cyclone is forecast to cross its
prior track and begin a weakening trend. By 96 h, Don is forecast
to degenerate into a post-tropical low and dissipate by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 34.4N 42.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 34.9N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 35.7N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 37.0N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 38.6N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 40.8N 50.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 42.8N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 46.7N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201444
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 PM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023

...DON CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 42.7W
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 42.7 West. Don is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed. A turn to
the northwestward is forecast during the next day or so, and Don is
later expected to turn northward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so,
followed by little change in strength through Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 201443
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC THU JUL 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 42.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 42.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.9N 43.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.7N 45.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.0N 47.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.6N 49.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.8N 50.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.8N 50.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 46.7N 46.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 42.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200838
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 AM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023

Deep convection associated with Don has become a little better
organized since the last advisory, with a curved convective band
currently developing near and to the north of the center. However,
the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
have not changed significantly, and thus the initial intensity
remains 45 kt.

Conditions appear favorable for some strengthening during the next
18-24 h, and the intensity forecast follows the previous forecast
in bringing the winds up to 50 kt during this time. After 24 h,
the cyclone will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures,
and after 72 h the cyclone should move north of the Gulf Stream
into an area where the water temperatures are below 20C. Based on
this and forecast dry air entrainment, the new intensity forecast
follows the previous forecast in showing Don starting to weaken
around 48 h, then it shows a faster rate of weakening after 72 h.
The cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical low with
no convection by 96 h.

The initial motion is now 285/6 kt. A low to mid-level ridge is
forecast to build north and east of Don during the next 72 h, which
should steer the cyclone west-northwestward, northwestward, and
eventually northward during the next 72 h. The guidance has
shifted a little more westward after 48 h, and thus the 60 and 72 h
forecast are a bit to the west of the previous track, However these
points lie to the east of the various consensus models, and some
additional adjustments may be needed on subsequent advisories.
After 72 h, Don is forecast to recurve northeastward along the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 34.1N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 34.4N 42.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 35.0N 44.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 36.1N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 37.7N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 39.3N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 41.3N 49.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 45.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z 47.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 AM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023

...DON NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 41.6W
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 41.6 West. Don is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion should continue with an increase in forward speed during
the next couple of days. Don is later expected to turn northward
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
followed by little change in strength through Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200837
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC THU JUL 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 41.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 41.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 41.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.4N 42.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.0N 44.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.1N 46.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.7N 48.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.3N 49.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.3N 49.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 45.0N 47.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 47.0N 40.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 41.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200249
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 AM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023

Don continues to maintain a compact area of deep convection, with
cold cloud tops between -60 to -65C attempting to rotate
cyclonically into the northern semicircle of the
storm's circulation. An earlier ASCAT-B pass clipped Don's east
side with a peak wind-retrieval of 39 kt, but this pass might
have missed higher winds closer to the center. In fact, a Synthetic
Aperture Radar (SAR) pass that became available after the prior
advisory suggests Don's radius of maximum wind has contracted to
near 20 n mi with a peak value of 49 kt, but this derived wind
may have been contaminated by ice-scattering noted in microwave
imagery. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimate was
T3.0/45-kt from TAFB, and the most recent objective intensity
estimate from SATCON was 46 kt. A blend of these various data
sources supports increasing Don's intensity to 45 kt this advisory.

There is still a window for Don to intensify more over the next 24 h
while it remains over 25-26 C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and
low shear helps ongoing convection moisten up the nearby environment
in a compact area. Beyond that time, SSTs decrease markedly along
Don's track, related to the storm crossing its own cold wake. In
addition, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance show
environmental mid-level relative humidity dropping below 40 percent,
and Don's small core could become sensitive to any increase in
shear, which could introduce drier air from the northeast. The most
recent regional hurricane model simulations illustrate this possible
scenario, with convection becoming sheared off to the southwest as
dry air infiltrates the storm's core in 48-60 h. Thus, the NHC
intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 50 kt, with
Don beginning to weaken after 48 h. This NHC forecast is near the
latest ICVN and HCCA consensus aids. The hurricane-regional guidance
also suggests Don should become devoid of convection when it moves
north of the Gulf Stream by 96 h, and the latest forecast now shows
the system becoming post-tropical at that time.

The tropical storm continues to move westward tonight, estimated at
270/5 kt. Don should soon begin to gain latitude again as a
prominent mid-level ridge becomes centered to its northeast. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, the model trends have been
for this blocking ridge to be slow to move completely out of Don's
way, and the storm is forecast to only slowly recurve into the
higher latitudes as a result. The track guidance this cycle has
shifted a bit westward compared to the previous forecast, notably
with the 18z ECMWF coming in farther west. The NHC track forecast
has also been shifted a little westward, but not as far west as the
TVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and further adjustments may be
necessary in subsequent advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 33.9N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 34.0N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 34.5N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 35.3N 45.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 36.6N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 38.3N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 40.2N 49.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 43.9N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0000Z 45.6N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200246
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 AM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023

...DON CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 40.9W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 40.9 West. Don is moving
toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). The storm should move
generally west-northwestward over the next day or two and then
turn northward this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. A bit more strengthening is forecast over the next day
or so, with little change in intensity expected thereafter through
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200245
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0300 UTC THU JUL 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 40.9W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 40.9W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 40.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.0N 42.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.5N 43.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.3N 45.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.6N 47.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.3N 48.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 40.2N 49.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 43.9N 47.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 45.6N 42.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 40.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 192047
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 PM GMT Wed Jul 19 2023

Don has continued to become better organized during the day, with a
deep convective band now curving more than halfway around the
center, and an expanding outflow pattern especially southeast of
the storm. While the western side of the circulation still has a
lot of dry air lurking, it seems like the lack of shear is allowing
the core of the cyclone to develop. Dvorak estimates have
increased, and a blend of the latest data gives an initial wind
speed of 40 kt. Scatterometer has missed the core for about the
past day, so hopefully tonight's passes will validate the improving
satellite presentation.

Further intensification is likely for the next day or so while Don
moves over a local maximum in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) with
light shear. Thereafter, the environment becomes less conducive
with cooling SSTs, drier environmental air, and perhaps an increase
in shear. The forecast is kept steady through the end of the work
week, then some weakening while Don crosses its own cool wake. The
NHC wind speed prediction is bumped up from the last one, consistent
with the latest model consensus, and most of the guidance is in
pretty good agreement on this scenario. The storm should lose all
of its deep convection and become post-tropical late Sunday or on
Monday after it crosses north of the Gulf Stream.

Don has turned westward, now moving a bit faster at 7 kt. The
system should turn west-northwestward tomorrow as it moves beneath a
large blocking ridge over the north-central Atlantic, with no
changes to the forecast in the short term. However, there has been
a pretty significant synoptic pattern shift in the models by Friday
with the blocking ridge much slower to depart, resulting in Don
moving more to the northwest and not accelerating as quickly
northeastward. The new forecast follows the guidance trend, but for
continuity concerns, the forecast is still faster than most of the
guidance, and further changes will likely be required on the next
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 33.8N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 33.7N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 34.1N 42.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 34.8N 44.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 35.9N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 37.2N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 39.0N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 43.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 45.5N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192043
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 PM GMT Wed Jul 19 2023

...DON STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 40.3W
ABOUT 795 MI...1285 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 40.3 West. Don is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm should move
generally west-northwestward on Thursday into Friday and then turn
northwestward or northward on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast over the next
day or so, with little change in intensity expected afterwards
through Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 192042
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
2100 UTC WED JUL 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 40.3W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 40.3W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.7N 41.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.1N 42.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.8N 44.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.9N 46.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.2N 47.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.0N 48.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 43.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 45.5N 44.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 191456
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 PM GMT Wed Jul 19 2023

Don is becoming better organized this morning. Satellite images
indicate deep convection is wrapping closer to the center, with
good banding features noted in the southern semicircle.
Additionally, it looks like a smaller core is forming within the
larger circulation on a 1156 UTC GMI pass, which could help
insulate the system from environmental dry air. The initial wind
speed remains 35 kt in concert with the latest TAFB Dvorak and
CIMSS ADT estimates.

The stage is finally set for intensification of Don with the
smaller core forming, along with the storm reaching a maximum in
SST during the next day or so and encountering light shear.
Gradual strengthening is shown through tomorrow, consistent with
the latest guidance and a bit higher the last NHC forecast. By
late Thursday, water temperatures begin to cool again, and shear is
forecast to increase slightly. This is probably enough to arrest
significant strengthening across the remainder of the forecast
period, so the intensity forecast is leveled off through 96 h.
Interestingly, the guidance has decreased since the last cycle, and
the model consensus is now within 5 kt of NHC at every time period.
Weakening should commence after it moves north of the Gulf Stream,
and the cyclone should become post-tropical sometime on Sunday.

Don has turned west-southwestward, still at about 4 kt. No
significant changes were made to the last NHC forecast track as Don
continues its anticyclonic loop around a blocking ridge in the
north-central Atlantic. Similar to yesterday, the ECMWF-based
guidance is on the right side of the envelope and the GFS-based
models are on the left side. The latest corrected-consensus models
are very close to the last NHC forecast track reasoning, so this
forecast is essentially just an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 33.9N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 33.7N 40.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 33.9N 41.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 34.6N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 35.7N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 37.2N 46.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 39.2N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 44.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 47.0N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191452
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 PM GMT Wed Jul 19 2023

...DON POISED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 39.6W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 39.6 West. Don is moving
toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). Don should turn
westward later today, move generally west-northwestward Thursday
and Friday and turn northwestward and northward on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is indicated during the next couple of
days, with little change in strength expected late this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 191452
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC WED JUL 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 39.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 39.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 39.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.7N 40.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.9N 41.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.6N 43.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.7N 45.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.2N 46.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.2N 48.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 44.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 47.0N 43.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190836
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 AM GMT Wed Jul 19 2023

Convection associated with Don remains disorganized this morning,
primarily occurring in a group of short bands in the eastern
semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed much
since the last advisory, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt
in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus.

As Don turns more westward during the next couple of days, it
should move over warmer sea surface temperatures into a somewhat
more moist air mass. This should allow some gradual strengthening,
and the new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in
calling for a 45 kt intensity by 48 h. It should be noted that
several of the dynamical models forecast Don to get stronger than
that, possibly due to them expecting Don to move west of the
current forecast track into even warmer sea surface temperatures.
After Don turns northward later in the forecast period, it should
move north of the Gulf Stream and degenerate to a post-tropical low
over cold water between 96-120 h.

The initial motion is now 185/4 kt. Don should turn southwestward
and westward during the next 24-36 h as the subtropical ridge
builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone. This ridge
should then move eastward, leaving the cyclone in a area of
southeasterly to southerly flow on its west side. This should
allow Don to turn northward by about 72 h and then subsequently
recurve into the westerlies. The new forecast track is essentially
an update of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 34.0N 39.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 33.7N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 33.7N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 34.3N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 35.1N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 36.4N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 38.4N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 43.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 46.6N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190836
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 AM GMT Wed Jul 19 2023

...DON MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 39.3W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 39.3 West. Don is moving
toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h). The storm should turn
southwestward soon, turn westward tonight or on Thursday, and then
northwestward on Friday with an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next day or so,
followed by some increase in intensity thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190835
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC WED JUL 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 39.3W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 39.3W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 39.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 33.7N 40.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.7N 41.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.3N 42.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.1N 44.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.4N 46.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.4N 48.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 43.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 46.6N 43.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 39.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190241
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 AM GMT Wed Jul 19 2023

Don's convective structure continues to sputter along this evening,
with only a small area of cold cloud tops below -50C centered just
to the east of the low-level center. However, there has been some
modest improvement of the low-level structure on microwave imagery,
with some curved bands on storm's east side. The latest subjective
and objective Dvorak classifications remain around 35 kt, and that
will remain the intensity for this advisory.

While the ongoing convection is relatively meager, it is currently
occuring within Don's radius of maximum wind. High-resolution
guidance (HAFS-A and HWRF) does show this convection persisting near
the center, possibly helping to develop a smaller wind core over the
next several days. Don is also expected to continue moving over
gradually warmer waters to near 26 C in 24-36 hours as the
mid-levels moisten and shear remains under 15 kt. Thus, some gradual
intensification continues to be shown over the next couple of days,
peaking the system at 45 kt in about 48 h. After that time, Don's
intensity is likely to be influenced by its future track,
with a more westward motion taking Don toward warmer waters.
However, the current NHC forecast track takes Don closer to the
cold wake it generated over the weekend. In fact, the latest SHIPS
guidance shows SSTs decreasing again after 48 h, and thus little
additional intensification is shown after that time, which remains
a bit under the consensus aids. By days 4-5, Don should be moving
beyond the north wall of the Gulf Steam, likely losing its
remaining convection and becoming post-tropical.

Don appears to be slowing its forward motion tonight, with the
latest estimated motion at 190/3 kt. This slowdown is likely in
preparation for the system to turn southwestward and westward over
the next 24-36 h as an amplified subtropical ridge grows poleward
over Don. This ridge is then expected to continue sliding eastward
and merge with another subtropical ridge just offshore of
northwestern Africa, which should provide an avenue for Don to
escape northward and then northeastward by the end of the forecast
period. There was not a lot of changes with the track guidance this
cycle, as the weaker ECMWF remains on the eastern side of the
guidance, while the stronger HAFS and GFS remain on the western
side. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior
one, favoring a slightly more eastward track given that Don is
forecast to be on the weaker end of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 34.3N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 33.8N 39.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 33.5N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 33.8N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 34.6N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 35.6N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 37.3N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 42.1N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 47.2N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190239
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 AM GMT Wed Jul 19 2023

...DON SLOWING DOWN AS IT PREPARES TO TURN WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 39.0W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 39.0 West. Don is moving
toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm should turn
southwestward soon, turn westward on Thursday, and then
northwestward on Friday with an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next day or so,
followed by some increase in intensity thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190237
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0300 UTC WED JUL 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.0W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.0W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 39.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.8N 39.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.5N 40.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.8N 41.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.6N 43.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.6N 45.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.3N 47.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 42.1N 49.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 47.2N 44.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 39.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 182034
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 PM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023

Deep convection has re-developed on the eastern side of Don this
afternoon, though most of the circulation is pretty skeletal. The
initial wind speed remains 35 kt, close to the latest TAFB
satellite classification, and hopefully the evening scatterometer
passes will hit the storm for the next advisory to get a more
precise estimate of the winds.

The environment near Don gets slightly more conducive for
strengthening during the next day or two with warmer SSTs, higher
mid-level moisture, and light or moderate shear. Gradual
intensification is shown through Thursday, similar to the last
forecast and near or below the model consensus. At long range, the
storm should pass over its own cool wake, and the environment
becomes less conducive overall. The model guidance is lower on this
cycle for late week, closer to the previous NHC wind speed
prediction. Thus, little change in strength is shown at days 3-4,
and Don should lose its deep convection around day 5 when it moves
north of the Gulf Stream.

Don has slowed and turned southward, now at around 6 kt. The storm
should move southwestward on Wednesday and west-northwestward on
Thursday due to steering from a blocking ridge in the north-central
Atlantic. As the ridge slides eastward, Don is likely to head
northward by Saturday and accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday.
The model spread has increased on this cycle, but there's still a
tendency for the weaker model solutions to be east of the model
consensus. Since the NHC intensity prediction remains on the low
side of the guidance, it is reasonable for the track forecast to
remain east of the model consensus, resulting in little net change
to the NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 34.9N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 34.1N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 33.7N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 33.8N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 34.3N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 35.2N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 36.5N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 40.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 46.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 PM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023

...DON HALFWAY THROUGH A LARGE TRACK LOOP IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 39.2W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 34.9 North, longitude 39.2 West. Don is moving
toward the south near 7 mph (11 km/h). The storm should slow down
and turn southwestward on Wednesday, turn westward on Thursday and
northwestward on Friday with an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, followed by a gradual increase in strength in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 182032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
2100 UTC TUE JUL 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 39.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 39.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 39.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.1N 39.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 33.7N 40.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.8N 41.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.3N 42.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.2N 44.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.5N 46.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 40.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 46.0N 47.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.9N 39.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181450
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 PM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023

Don has struggled to produce deep convection today, despite the
storm moving over warmer waters, with only a few moderate bands on
the eastern side of the circulation. A scatterometer pass near
1200 UTC showed maximum winds just above 30 kt, and it seems like
the system is vacillating between 30 and 35 kt as an initial wind
speed, based primarily on convective trends. I don't really want
to be chasing every burst of convection, so the conservative thing
is to wait a little longer before downgrading it to a depression.

The system should not change much in intensity over the next day or
so while it encounters a slightly more conducive (but still
marginal) environment. It also wouldn't be a surprise if Don became
a depression again in the short-term. Modest intensification is
forecast later this week while the system encounters warmer SSTs,
higher mid-level moisture, and the shear remains light or moderate.
The new forecast is similar to the previous one, below the model
consensus given the overall mediocre environment for strengthening.

Don has turned south-southeastward at about 8 kt. The storm is
about halfway through making a large anticyclonic loop over the
central Atlantic, bending around a blocking ridge in the
mid-latitudes. Don should move more slowly southward overnight and
Wednesday as it sits beneath the ridge, then gradually accelerate
northwestward and northward as it moves around the ridge. The track
guidance is coming into better agreement on this course,
conveniently converging somewhat on the last NHC track forecast, so
no significant changes were required.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 35.6N 39.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 34.6N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 33.9N 39.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 33.7N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 34.0N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 34.7N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 35.7N 45.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 39.0N 49.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 44.0N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181445
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 PM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023

...DON BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 39.3W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 165 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 39.3 West. Don is moving
toward the south-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). Don is forecast to
turn southward and move more slowly by tonight, followed by a turn
westward and then northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday,
respectively. On the forecast track, Don should remain over the
open waters of the central Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, followed by a gradual increase in strength in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181444
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC TUE JUL 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 39.3W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 70SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 150SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 39.3W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 39.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.6N 39.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.9N 39.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.7N 40.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.0N 41.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.7N 43.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.7N 45.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 39.0N 49.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 44.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 39.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180840
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC TUE JUL 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 39.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 145 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 39.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N 39.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.2N 39.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 33.8N 39.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.7N 41.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.3N 42.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.2N 44.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 38.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 42.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180841
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 AM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023

Convection associated with Don has decreased somewhat in coverage
and organization over the past several hours, with patches of
convection now occurring near the center over the northern
semicircle. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates are in the 30-40 kt range, and these have changed little
since the previous advisory. Based on that, the initial intensity
remains 35 kt.

The initial motion is now 145/10 kt. The cyclone's motion is
expected to continue curving clockwise over the next several days as
it is steered by a building mid-level ridge that is forecast to
shift southwestward to northwestward relative to Don. Eventually
this ridge will move to the northeast and east of Don, allowing the
storm to turn northwestward and eventually northward. One change
in the guidance since the previous forecast is that it now shows a
little more westward motion after 36 h than previously, and the new
track forecast during this time is nudged a little farther to the
west, There continues to be a significant spread in guidance
solutions by the end of the forecast period, and the current
forecast remains low-confidence in that time frame.

Don is currently over sea surface temperatures of about 24C and in
an area of relatively dry mid-level air. The sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track increase to 25C during the
next 72 h, and the cyclone could encounter a more moist air mass
during that time. Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new
intensity forecast shows modest intensification during the next 72
h. The forecast peak intensity of 45 kt is a compromise between the
weaker SHIPS/LGEM models and the stronger HWRF/HMON/HAFS models.
Overall, the new intensity forecast lies near the intensity
consensus and has only minor adjustments since the previous
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 36.3N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 35.2N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 34.2N 39.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 33.8N 39.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 33.7N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 34.3N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 35.2N 44.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 38.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 42.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180840
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 AM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023

...DON NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 39.6W
ABOUT 705 MI...1130 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 39.6 West. Don is moving
toward the southeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). Don is forecast to turn
southward later today or tonight or so followed by a turn westward
and then northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. On
the forecast track, Don should remain over the open waters of the
central Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180244
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 AM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023

The convective structure of Don this evening has improved somewhat,
with a decent area of -55 to -65C cold cloud tops centered a bit to
the northeast of the low-level center. The center is also perhaps a
bit better defined than earlier, with the ongoing convective
activity possibly helping to tighten the center up. While subjective
Dvorak classifications have not increased much this evening, an
ASCAT-C pass at 2302 UTC caught the eastern portion of the
circulation, with several believable wind vectors of up to 35 kt.
Thus, Don is being upgraded to a tropical storm this advisory with
sustained winds of 35 kt.

Don continues to move southeastward at 125/11 kt. This motion is
expected to continue curving clockwise over the next several days as
the cyclone remains steered by a building mid-level ridge that is
forecast to shift southwestward to northwestward relative to Don.
Eventually this ridge will fold over the storm, allowing Don to
begin gaining latitude again in 48-60 h. Overall, the track guidance
this cycle has shifted a bit to the east and the NHC track has been
shifted a little in that direction, though still remains much
further west than the ECMWF model. There continues to be a large
spread in guidance solutions by the end of the forecast period, and
the current forecast remains low-confidence in that time frame.

Even though Don is a bit stronger currently, the overall forecast
environment is not all that conducive for much intensification in
the short-term. Sea-surface temperatures under the cyclone are
around 24C currently, and are only forecast to warm perhaps another
degree C over the next 36-48 h. However, model-derived soundings
from the GFS and HAFS models suggest that tropospheric instability
does increase as environmental temperatures subtly cool in the
mid-levels. The simulated IR imagery from these models around that
time shows better organization of convective activity around a
smaller core, and if this structure were to verify, some gradual
intensification is possible. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows
a bit more intensification than before, mostly related to the
initial intensity, but still caps the system off as a 45-kt tropical
storm by the end of the forecast period, which remains a bit under
the model consensus. The latter part of the forecast is likely
dependent on the Don's ultimate track. A further left track, like
the GFS and HAFS-A/B, may take the cyclone over warmer SSTs, and
result in a stronger storm. However, a more rightward track like
the ECMWF would take Don over its cold wake and likely would limit
additional intensification.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 37.4N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 36.3N 39.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 34.9N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 34.1N 39.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 33.8N 40.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 34.2N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 35.0N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 37.4N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 41.3N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180239
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 AM GMT Tue Jul 18 2023

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES DON HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 40.4W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 40.4 West. Don is moving
toward the southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). Don is forecast to turn
southward within the next day or so followed by a turn westward and
then northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. On the
forecast track, Don should remain over the open waters of the
central Atlantic.

Satellite-derived wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
slight additional strengthening is possible over the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180238
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0300 UTC TUE JUL 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 40.4W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 40.4W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 40.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.3N 39.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.9N 39.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 34.1N 39.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.8N 40.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.2N 41.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 35.0N 43.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 37.4N 46.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 41.3N 49.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 40.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 172040
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Don Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 PM GMT Mon Jul 17 2023

GOES-16 visible imagery shows that Don is comprised of multiple
low-level swirls rotating around the larger circulation, which is
better defined than you might think at the surface based on earlier
scatterometer data. Overall, the system is not well organized due
to persistent shear, dry air and marginal instability, with only a
distant burst of convection well east of the center. There has been
no change with the latest satellite classifications, so the initial
wind speed remains 30 kt.

The environment around Don is forecast to become more conducive for
gradual intensification in a couple of days when the cyclone moves
over warmer waters with light-to-moderate shear, tempered by plenty
of mid-level dry air. Surprisingly, many of the recent regional
hurricane models show a hurricane forming over 24-25C waters in
several days time, which is hard to believe given the seemingly
marginal large-scale conditions. Additionally, Don will have to
cross its own cool wake in 4-5 days, which isn't well accounted for
in the models yet. The new forecast is bumped up at day 5 but
remains below the model consensus.

Don has turned southeastward at about 12 kt, in the process of
undergoing a large anticyclonic loop over the central Atlantic due
to a blocking ridge to its north. The depression should begin to
gain latitude again late on Wednesday as the blocking ridge slides
eastward, and eventually Don should turn northwestward by the end of
the forecast period. The biggest question remains how sharp of a
turn will occur late this week, with the ECMWF suite insisting on a
faster northward motion by the weekend, well east of the other
guidance. An examination of those fields suggests that it doesn't
vertically redevelop Don as much as the rest of the guidance,
resulting in the cyclone not responding to the upper-level
southeasterly flow, and instead turning more quickly northward.
Since the new intensity forecast remains on the lower side of the
guidance envelope, the new NHC track forecast will also stay east of
the model consensus, not too different from the last prediction.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 38.1N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 37.1N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 35.4N 39.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 34.3N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 33.6N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 33.8N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 34.4N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 36.7N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 40.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 172039
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Don Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 PM GMT Mon Jul 17 2023

...DON TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 41.6W
ABOUT 795 MI...1275 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Don was
located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 41.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the southeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).
Don should turn southward on Tuesday, westward on Wednesday and
west-northwestward on Thursday over the open waters of the central
Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Don could become a tropical storm by midweek with additional
strengthening possible by late week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 172039
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
2100 UTC MON JUL 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 41.6W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 41.6W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 42.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.1N 40.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.4N 39.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.3N 39.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 33.6N 40.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.8N 41.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.4N 43.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 36.7N 46.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 40.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 41.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 171456
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Don Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 PM GMT Mon Jul 17 2023

Satellite images indicate that Don continues to produce a cluster of
deep convection, displaced east of the center due to shear. Despite
the cool waters, this deep convection has persisted overnight, and
the cloud pattern most resembles a sheared tropical cyclone,
although the circulation remains elongated. This structure is
confirmed by the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate, which gave a tropical
classification for the first time at 12 UTC. Thus, Don is changed to
a tropical cyclone on this advisory, although it is still a 30-kt
depression on the basis of a recent scatterometer pass at 1229 UTC
that showed a small area of winds around 30 kt.

Don is moving east-southeastward at about 12 kt, with a better
estimate of motion available due to the aforementioned scatterometer
pass. The depression is about a quarter of the way through making a
large anticyclonic loop over the central Atlantic, forced by a
blocking ridge to its north. The new forecast is shifted to the
east during the next few days as guidance has trended faster with a
more vertically intact cyclone structure noted. In the long range,
the blocking ridge shifts eastward, allowing Don to turn
northwestward and cross over its own path in about 5 days. While
the ECMWF still remains east of most of the other guidance, the
model consensus is close to the previous forecast, so the new track
forecast is about the same as the last prediction.

The depression is expected to move over warmer waters by midweek,
though some increase in shear could reduce the chances for
significant restrengthening (and the waters are only 25 degrees C
or so). Still, basically all of the models now bring this to a
tropical storm within a few days, and the new forecast continues to
follow suit. At long range, the SSTs start to decrease again, and
the system is forecast to cross its own path, resulting in less
instability due to a presumed cool wake from the storm. I've
elected to raise the forecast 5 kt in about 4 days, but it is still
below most of the guidance, as the environment just doesn't seem
that conducive for a significant increase in winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 38.6N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 37.7N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 36.0N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 34.5N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 33.8N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 33.4N 40.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 33.7N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 35.8N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 39.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 171452
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Don Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
300 PM GMT Mon Jul 17 2023

...DON IN THE MIDST OF A LARGE TRACK LOOP OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 42.9W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Don was
located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 42.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 14 mph (22
km/h). The depression should turn southward on Tuesday, westward
on Wednesday and west-northwestward on Thursday over the open
waters of the central Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Don could become a tropical storm by midweek with additional
strengthening possible by late week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 171451
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC MON JUL 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 42.9W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 42.9W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 43.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.7N 41.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.0N 39.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.5N 39.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.8N 39.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.4N 40.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.7N 42.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 35.8N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 39.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 42.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170832
TCDAT5

Subtropical Depression Don Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 AM GMT Mon Jul 17 2023

Don continues to produce an area of deep convection on its east side
and has generally changed little during the past several hours.
Satellite imagery suggest that the circulation of Don has become
elongated from east to west and confidence is low on its center
position. Since the system has not changed much, the initial
intensity remains 30 kt based on continuity. This estimate is a
little below the latest satellite intensity guidance.

The depression is moving eastward at about 8 kt on the north side of
a subtropical ridge. A turn to the southeast is expected later
today followed by a turn to the south tonight and Tuesday as the
system moves in the flow between the ridge and an amplifying trough
over the northeastern Atlantic. Don is expected to stall during the
middle of the week when the steering currents weaken, but a motion
to the northwest is expected later in the week when the system moves
on the south side of the ridge. Regardless, Don is not expected to
move much during the next several days. This forecast is fairly
similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids.

Don could gradually gain strength during the next few days while it
moves over slightly warmer waters and remains in low to moderate
wind shear conditions. The models also show the wind field
contracting, suggesting that Don could transition to a tropical
cyclone in the next day or two. The environment is expected to
remain marginally conducive late in the week, which should allow to
Don to maintain its strength. The NHC intensity forecast is the
same as the previous one and below the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 39.2N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 38.6N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 37.1N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 35.6N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 19/0600Z 34.1N 40.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 33.5N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 33.5N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 35.3N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 38.6N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170831
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Don Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
900 AM GMT Mon Jul 17 2023

...DON REMAINS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL WEST OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.2N 44.7W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Don
was located near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 44.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h). Don is
forecast to turn southeastward later today, southward on Tuesday,
and westward on Wednesday over the central Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Don could intensify slightly and transition into a fully
tropical system during the next day or two.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170831
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC MON JUL 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 44.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 44.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 45.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.6N 42.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.1N 41.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.6N 40.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.1N 40.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 33.5N 40.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.5N 41.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 35.3N 45.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 38.6N 48.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.2N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 170242
TCDAT5

Subtropical Depression Don Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 PM AST Sun Jul 16 2023

Convection has been waxing and waning near Don this evening, with
only a small area of -50 to -60C tops occuring to the east of the
center. Despite the relatively meager convective structure, Don's
appearance now looks more akin to a sheared tropical depression,
since the upper-level low that was over Don at the start of the
weekend has largely dissipated. However, the most recent TAFB Dvorak
classification kept the system subtropical given the limited
convective activity, and so Don will still be classified as a
subtropical cyclone at this time, with maximum sustained winds
of 30 kt for this advisory.

Don continues to move eastward, with the latest motion estimated at
090/9 kt. An anomalously strong low- to mid-level anticyclone is
currently centered south of Don, and this feature is expected to
shift westward and quickly build poleward to the west and northwest
of the cyclone. Eventually this ridge will fold back over to Don's
north towards the end of this week. The net result of this pattern
reconfiguration is Don should begin to execute a clockwise loop over
the Central Atlantic, first turning southeast tomorrow, south and
southwest by Tuesday, and finally turning westward and then
northwestward towards the middle to latter part of the week. The
track guidance this cycle has shifted back eastward, and only modest
track adjustments were needed in the official forecast for the first
three days, followed by an adjustment eastward in days 4-5. However,
given the continued spread in the ensemble track guidance at that
time range, that portion of the forecast remains low confidence.

Don?--s short-term future is dependent on its ability to continue
producing enough convective activity to prevent it from becoming a
remnant low. Right now, sea-surface temperatures over the system are
around 23C, about the coldest they will be along its forecast track.
As the system begins to lose latitude over the next several days,
these waters warm to around 25C, while upper-level temperatures
remain sufficently cold to result in increased instability. Both the
regional-hurricane models and global models show Don maintaining or
increasing convective activity near its center as it moves
southward. For these reasons, the latest intensity forecast now
shows the system transitioning to a tropical cyclone a bit earlier,
and also shows some gradual intensification beginning at 48 hours as
the system moves over these warmer waters. A bit more
intensification is shown in the latter part of the forecast, but
still remains under the majority of the guidance in the extended
range given the larger-than-normal uncertainty in the location and
structure of the system at the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 39.4N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 39.1N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 37.9N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 36.3N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 19/0000Z 34.6N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 33.5N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 33.2N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 34.2N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 37.2N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 170237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Don Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 PM AST Sun Jul 16 2023

...DON CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 45.8W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Don
was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 45.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). Don is
forecast to turn southeastward on Monday, southward on Tuesday, and
westward on Wednesday over the central Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next day or so, but
Don may intensify slightly and transition into a fully tropical
system on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 170236
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0300 UTC MON JUL 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 45.8W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 45.8W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 46.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.1N 43.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.9N 41.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.3N 40.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.6N 40.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.5N 40.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.2N 41.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 34.2N 44.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 37.2N 48.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 45.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 162041
TCDAT5

Subtropical Depression Don Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Sun Jul 16 2023

Don is a strange system. Satellite images show that convection has
increased in aerial coverage in the southeastern quadrant of the
cyclone, although it is still not well defined in banding features
or other organizational metrics. The convection is also closer to
the center, and the upper-level low near Don has weakened. In some
ways it has actually gained some tropical characteristics since
yesterday despite remaining over cool waters, but the convective
organization is still shy of a tropical cyclone. Regardless of the
scientific curiosity, there are no signs that the winds have
strengthened, and Don is best classified as a 30-kt subtropical
depression on this advisory.

Don has turned to the east this afternoon and should gradually
execute a large clockwise loop over the central Atlantic during the
next few days, first turning southeast, then south and southwest
through Wednesday. The only change to that part of the forecast was
a slight eastward adjustment at a faster forward speed. There
continues to be a large guidance spread on days 4/5 as Don moves
south of a blocking ridge and eventually turns to the west or
northwest. Interestingly, the regional hurricane models are
generally on the left side of the guidance envelope, and the global
models are on the right side. I just don't trust the regional
guidance in this set-up where the large-scale steering might matter
more than the storm structure (and the regional models struggle in
hybrid situations). Thus, the forecast leans on the eastern side of
the guidance at long range, resulting in little change from the
previous forecast, east of the model consensus.

Don isn't likely to change much in intensity for the next few days,
with a somewhat unfavorable environment persisting. While not
explicitly shown, it could degenerate into a remnant low during the
next few days until it reaches warmer waters. Then, a fair bit of
the guidance brings the system back (as a tropical cyclone) due to
more instability over warmer waters in a lighter shear environment.
The forecast does show Don as a tropical storm in 4 days, but with
water temperatures still below 25C, it isn't expected to be very
strong at long range. The new NHC forecast is close to the previous
one and remains lower than the guidance at the extended time ranges.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 39.3N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 39.4N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 38.5N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 37.0N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 35.3N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 33.8N 40.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 33.0N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 33.4N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H 21/1800Z 35.5N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 162036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Don Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Sun Jul 16 2023

...DON TURNS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 47.0W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Don
was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 47.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h). Don
should turn southeastward on Monday, southward on Tuesday, and
southwestward on Wednesday over the central Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 72
hours, and Don could degenerate into a remnant low during that time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 162035
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 47.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 47.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 47.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.4N 45.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.5N 42.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.0N 41.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.3N 40.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 33.8N 40.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 33.0N 41.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 33.4N 44.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 35.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 47.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 161452
TCDAT5

Subtropical Depression Don Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Sun Jul 16 2023

Satellite images indicate that Don is producing a small area of
convection in the southeastern quadrant, though it is stretch to
call it very organized. Overall, the system is mostly a big swirl
of low- to mid-level clouds with occasional bursts of modest
convection. A 1250 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed maximum
winds of about 30 kt, so that will be the initial wind speed.

Don has turned to the east-northeast this morning, and should
gradually execute a large clockwise loop over the central Atlantic
during the next few days, turning southeast, south and southwest.
Model guidance is in good agreement on this course through midweek,
and little change was made to the previous forecast. The long
range forecast is more uncertain, however, with Don potentially
becoming trapped in an area of lighter steering currents before
moving more northward, rather than westward in the loop. The model
spread is enormous by day 5, with about 1000 n mi of distance
between some of the ECMWF ensemble members. The new forecast is
trended westward toward the multi-model ensemble mean, with a
majority suggesting a northwest track at the end of the forecast
period, but that's far from certain.

The environment near Don is expected to be pretty hostile for the
next few days, with any cold air aloft promoting convection being
neutralized by cool waters, dry air surrounding the cyclone, and
some shear. This should result in little intensity change during
the next few days, and Don could also degenerate into a remnant low,
especially tomorrow when conditions could be the most harsh. At
long range, Don might have a chance to re-strengthen since it moves
over warmer waters with more instability, but Don could also be too
weak to take advantage of these factors. Considering the large
track uncertainty, the new forecast is the same as the previous one
at long range, below the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 39.0N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 39.4N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 38.9N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 37.8N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 36.2N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 34.7N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 33.5N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 33.0N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 35.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 161449
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Don Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Sun Jul 16 2023

...DON LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 48.1W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Don
was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 48.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).
Don should turn toward the east later today, southeast on Monday
and toward the south by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and Don
could become a remnant low pressure area within the next couple of
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 161449
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 48.1W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 48.1W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 39.4N 46.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.9N 44.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.8N 42.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.2N 41.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.7N 41.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.5N 41.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 33.0N 43.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 35.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 48.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160836
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Sun Jul 16 2023

Don is barely a subtropical storm. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, the ASCAT-C pass from around 00Z showed peak winds near
35 kt in a small area about 60 n mi east-northeast of the center.
Deep convection is limited to the same region where the strongest
winds were observed. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this
advisory based on the earlier ASCAT data and a blend of the latest
satellite intensity estimates that range from 25 to 45 kt.

The storm is currently over cool 24 degree C waters and the sea
surface temperatures along the expected track over the next day or
two are about a degree lower. These unfavorable oceanic conditions
combined with dry air that continues to wrap into the circulation
should cause Don to remain poorly organized. If the storm does
manage to survive beyond 48-72 hours, the water temperatures are
expected to increase a little along the forecast track, which could
cause some increase in thunderstorm activity. Nonetheless,
significant strengthening is not expected due to continued dry air
entrainment and an increase in wind shear. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Don remaining a
weak system through the forecast period. However, even though not
explicitly forecast, it would not be surprising if Don becomes a
remnant low at some point in the next couple of days.

Don is gradually bending to the right and an eastward motion is
expected later today as high pressure builds over the eastern
Atlantic. A turn to the southeast is expected on Monday followed by
a southward motion as the ridge shifts westward and a trough becomes
established over the northeastern Atlantic. Don could stall or loop
around during the middle part of the weak as the steering currents
collapse. The model guidance has not changed much, and the NHC
track forecast generally follows the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 38.6N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 39.3N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 39.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 38.6N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 37.2N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 35.8N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 34.3N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 32.8N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 33.6N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160835
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Don Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Sun Jul 16 2023

...DON HANGING ON AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 48.4W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 48.4 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). Don should turn
toward the east later today, southeast on Monday and toward the
south
by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, but Don could become
a remnant low pressure area within the next couple of days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) east of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160835
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 48.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 48.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 48.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 39.3N 47.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.4N 45.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.6N 43.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.2N 41.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.8N 41.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.3N 41.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 32.8N 42.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 33.6N 44.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 48.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 160240
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

Don continues to sporadically produce bursts of convection and cling
to subtropical cyclone status. The storm currently consists of an
exposed low-level center with a limited area of thunderstorms in the
eastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity remains
at 35 kt based on recent data from a scatterometer overpass
(ASCAT-C).

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are generally not conducive for
development. Sea surface temperatures are between 23-24 degrees
Celsius along the forecast track for the next few days. Dry
mid-level humidities from subsiding air are also expected to be
quite low. However, isolated convection driven by cool upper-level
temperatures could still continue for the next several days
preventing Don from becoming a post-tropical cyclone. There is also
a chance the storm could slightly re-strengthen in the long-term
forecast when it moves southward. The official forecast is
unchanged from the the previous prediction.

The storm is moving northward at about 9 kt. The reasoning behind
the track forecast has also not changed. A strong subtropical ridge
is expected to steer Don eastward by late tomorrow and southward on
Tuesday. In the 4-5 day forecast period, Don will be in a region
with weak steering currents and likely linger in the same general
area. The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the last
advisory forecast and the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 38.2N 48.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 39.1N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 39.7N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 39.3N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 38.2N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 36.6N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 35.1N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 33.5N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 34.2N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 160237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Don Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 PM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

...SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOW DON IS STILL A SUBTROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 48.7W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 48.7 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). Don should turn
toward the east on Sunday, southeast on Monday and toward the south
by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast for the next several days, and
Don could become a remnant low pressure area in a few days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 160235
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0300 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 48.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 48.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 48.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 39.1N 48.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 39.7N 46.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.3N 44.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 38.2N 42.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.6N 41.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 35.1N 41.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 33.5N 41.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 34.2N 42.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 48.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 152206 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Don Advisory Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

Corrected motion paragraph

...DON WEAKENS WHILE IT TURNS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 48.6 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). Don should turn
toward the east on Sunday, southeast on Monday and toward the south
by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the
next several days, and Don could become a remnant low pressure area
in a few days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 152044
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

Don has a poor appearance on the latest satellite imagery, with only
weak banding noted on the southeastern side of the circulation,
mostly removed from the center, and only moderate convection. With
the overall degradation in the satellite presentation, the current
wind speed is lowered slightly to 35 kt, consistent with the latest
TAFB classification.

The environment near Don is pretty harsh during the next few days,
with waters of 23-24C, dry air aloft, and bouts of shear. While
this should be counteracted by cool upper-level conditions, which
promote deep convection over lower sea-surface temperatures than
typical, most factors suggest some weakening next week. Thus the
latest forecast of Don is decreased from the previous one, leaning
closer to the global model solutions that generally show the system
becoming a depression in a day or so. While there's a chance of
re-strengthening at long range, it is probably just as likely that
the system will degenerate into a remnant low before that point.

Don continues wobbling, but appears to have started its northward
motion at about 8 kt. The storm should turn eastward by late
tomorrow and southward on Tuesday while it moves around the
northern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge. Don will probably
enter a weaker steering flow near midweek, with little net motion
expected for a day or so. Only minor eastward adjustments were
required to the NHC track forecast at long range as much of the
guidance come in close to the previous prediction. For such an
unusual July track, the guidance is in fairly good agreement, and
the NHC track is just west of the model consensus by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 37.3N 48.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 38.3N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 39.3N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 39.4N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 38.6N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 37.1N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 35.4N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 33.2N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 33.5N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 152042
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Don Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

...DON WEAKENS WHILE IT TURNS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 48.6 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). Don should turn
toward the north toward the east on Sunday, southeast on Monday and
toward the south by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast for the
next several days, and Don could become a remnant low pressure area
in a few days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 152041
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 48.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 48.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 38.3N 48.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 39.3N 47.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.4N 45.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.6N 43.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.1N 41.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.4N 40.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 33.2N 41.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 33.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 48.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 151450
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

While the low-level circulation of Don remains robust, any
associated convection is weaker than overnight and farther from the
center. Satellite intensity estimates haven't changed much, so the
initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt, though this feels a little
generous. Unfortunately, the morning scatterometer passes missed
the center.

Don has wobbled northwestward overnight, at about 8 kt. The storm
should turn northward later today and then eastward by late tomorrow
while it moves around the periphery of a strong subtropical ridge.
The biggest change to the forecast of Don is that the track guidance
has shifted northward in the first few days of the forecast period.
The NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, with little change in
the longer range as Don moves southward around the east side of the
strong ridge.

The storm should remain in a marginal environment during the next
few days with cool SSTs and dry air lurking, causing the system to
keep about the same strength or gradually decay. With the northward
forecast change, taking Don across cooler waters, it is possible
that Don could weaken into a depression or a remnant low in a
couple of days. Some re-intensification is possible at long
range when Don moves over warmer waters, though the uncertainty is
high. No big changes were made to the previous forecast, but it
wouldn't be surprising if downward adjustments were necessary in
the afternoon forecast package.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 36.5N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 37.8N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 39.1N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 39.5N 46.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 39.3N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 38.4N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 36.8N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 33.9N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 33.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 151447
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 48.8W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 48.8W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.8N 48.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 39.1N 48.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 39.5N 46.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.3N 44.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 38.4N 42.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.8N 41.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 33.9N 41.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 33.0N 42.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 48.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151448
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Don Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

...DON FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 48.8W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 48.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). Don should turn
toward the north later today, toward the east on Sunday and toward
the south by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength or slight weakening is expected,
and Don could possibly become a post-tropical cyclone or remnant low
during the next few days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150833
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

Don appears to be holding steady in strength. The storm is
producing bands of deep convection mostly on its north side, with
dry air continuing to wrap into the southern half of the
circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 35
to 45 kt, and based on these data, the initial intensity is held at
40 kt.

Although the storm has been wobbling around, the general motion has
been northward at about 8 kt during the past 12-24 hours, and that
should continue through tonight. On Sunday, a turn to the east is
expected as Don moves in the flow on the north side of a subtropical
ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The storm will likely turn
southeastward beginning late Monday as a trough amplifies over the
northeastern Atlantic and western Europe. However, the steering
currents could collapse during the middle part of next week causing
the storm to stall. Despite the relatively complex steering flow,
the models are in general agreement and have not changed much during
the past several cycles. The NHC track forecast is a little to the
north of the previous one in the short term, but most of the
changes were minor. This track is close to the various consensus
models.

Don is over relatively cool 25 degree C waters and the sea surface
temperatures are expected to decrease another couple of degrees
along the forecast track during the next 2 days or so. These
generally unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with dry air
surrounding the system should cause Don to either hold steady or
lose some strength during the next 2 or 3 days. In fact, it is
possible that Don becomes a post-tropical cyclone at some point
during that time period. However, beyond a few days, the storm is
expected to move back over slightly warmer waters, which could allow
Don to restrengthen if manages to survive that long. The NHC
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 35.7N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 36.9N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 38.2N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 39.1N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 39.3N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 38.7N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 37.3N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 34.3N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 33.2N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150832
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Don Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Sat Jul 15 2023

...DON HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 47.8W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 47.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
east at a similar forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by
a turn to the southeast by late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength or slight weakening is
expected, and Don could possibly become a post-tropical cyclone or
remnant low during the next few days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) east of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150832
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 47.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 47.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 47.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.9N 48.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 38.2N 48.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 39.1N 47.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.3N 45.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.7N 43.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.3N 41.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 34.3N 41.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 33.2N 41.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 47.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150237
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 14 2023

Don continues to display characteristics of a sheared subtropical
storm. Infrared satellite imagery shows remnants of earlier
convective activity are offset to the north and east of the
circulation and a single burst of fresh convection has formed just
east of the exposed low-level center. Subjective satellite estimate
from TAFB still classify Don as a ST2.5, and the initial intensity
remains at 40 kt.

The cyclone has turned northward after a brief wobble westward.
The motion, averaged over 12 hours, is northward at 8 kt. The
track forecast reasoning remains the same. A ridge centered over
the eastern Atlantic will shift westward over the next few days.
Don will move around the periphery of the ridge, continuing
northward, and then turning eastward and southward by the end of the
forecast period. The updated track forecast has moved back east of
the previous prediction, largely due to the initial position, and
is close to the consensus model aids.

Don has just moved over waters cooler than 25 degrees Celsius and
continues to entrain dry mid-level air. Along the forecast track,
sea surface temperatures are forecast to decrease over the next few
days as the cyclone moves northward. Simulated satellite imagery
from global models suggests the convective organization should
degrade during this timeframe, though some models show Don
restrengthening with the southward bringing it over warmer waters.
The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
advisory and maintains Don's subtropical classification through the
forecast period. However, should the storm continue to lose
convective coverage and organization it could become post-tropical
at any time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 34.7N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 37.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 38.4N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 38.8N 45.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 38.7N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 37.5N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 34.5N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 33.4N 39.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Don Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 14 2023

...DON MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 47.2W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 47.2 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
east at a similar forward speed is expected by Sunday night,
followed by a turn to the southeast by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Don could possibly become a post-tropical cyclone or remnant low
at any time.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150236
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0300 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 47.2W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 47.2W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 47.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.1N 47.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 38.4N 47.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 38.8N 45.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.7N 43.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 34.5N 39.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 33.4N 39.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 47.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 142045
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Fri Jul 14 2023

Don is producing two broken bands of convection which are displaced
to the east of the low-level center. The cyclone still leans
heavily on the subtropical side of the spectrum, lacking a central
dense overcast, being associated with an upper-level low, and having
an asymmetric distribution of convection. However, this morning's
ASCAT data did indicate that the radius of maximum winds had
contracted down to 30 n mi, more akin to a tropical cyclone. Based
on the earlier ASCAT data and an Hebert-Poteat classification of
ST2.5 from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

Don deviated to the left of the previous forecast track during the
past few hours and is estimated to be moving northwestward, or
325/7 kt. Despite that, the track forecast reasoning is unchanged.
An eastern Atlantic mid-level ridge will be the main steering
influence and is expected to migrate westward across the Atlantic
during the next several days. Don is forecast to move around the
northern and eastern side of the ridge, turning northward,
eastward, and then southward over the next 5 days. The new NHC
track forecast has been shifted a bit westward, mainly due to the
recent deviation to the west, and is close to a blend of the TVCA
and FSSE consensus aids.

Subsidence behind the trough is causing dry air to be entrained
into Don's circulation, and the storm is currently over waters of
25-26 degrees Celsius. The forecast track takes Don over waters as
cold as 23 degrees in about 3 days, and simulated satellite imagery
from the GFS and ECMWF suggests that the convective coverage
and pattern could be quite degraded by that time. Still, the
intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement that Don will
only weaken a bit during the next several days, with some possible
restrengthening by the end of the forecast period when the storm
again reaches warmer waters. For continuity's sake, the forecast
continues to show Don maintaining subtropical storm status for the
next 5 days, but it could become post-tropical at any time if the
convection wanes and loses organization.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 34.1N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 35.1N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 36.5N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 37.8N 48.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 38.7N 47.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 38.7N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 37.9N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 35.0N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 33.0N 40.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 142045
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Don Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 PM AST Fri Jul 14 2023

...DON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 48.0W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 48.0 West. Don is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward
the north at a similar forward speed is expected by Saturday night,
followed by a turn toward the east by Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Don could possibly become a post-tropical cyclone or remnant
low at any time.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) east of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 142044
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 48.0W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 70SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 48.0W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 47.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.1N 48.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.5N 48.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 37.8N 48.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 38.7N 47.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.7N 45.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 37.9N 43.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 35.0N 40.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 33.0N 40.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 141456
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 14 2023

Don's deep convection has been waning in intensity since the
overnight hours, with most of the activity located in broken bands
to the north and east of the center of circulation. The cyclone
remains subtropical, given that it is embedded within a deep-layer
trough and has a relatively large radius of maximum winds. A
just-received ASCAT pass over Don shows a swath of 35-40 kt winds
to the east of the center, so the initial intensity is therefore
lowered to 40 kt.

Don's recent motion has been north-northwestward, or 340/6 kt, with
the cyclone surrounded by a pair of strong mid-level ridges to its
east and north, and a broad trough over the western Atlantic. The
ridge to the east will be the main steering influence, and that
feature is expected to migrate westward across the Atlantic during
the next several days. Don is forecast to move slowly around the
northern side of the ridge, turning northward, eastward, and then
southeastward over the next 5 days. In spite of the somewhat
complicated mid-latitude pattern, the track models are in fairly
good agreement for much of the forecast period. The new NHC track
forecast is nudged northward during the 2- to 4-day part of the
forecast toward the consensus aids but otherwise is very similar to
the forecast from earlier this morning.

Subsiding dry air on the back side of the trough is getting
entrained into Don's circulation, and the storm is over waters of
25-26 degrees Celsius, heading towards waters as cold as 23 degrees
in about 3 days. Although the trough may be able to continue to
supply some baroclinic energy to Don, the cyclone's maximum winds
are likely to gradually diminish over the next few days given the
less favorable thermodynamic environment. There is a chance that
Don could lose enough convective organization and become a
post-tropical cyclone at some point during the next few days.
However, by days 4 and 5, Don will be heading back southward toward
relatively warmer waters, and a new mid-latitude shortwave trough
may provide a boost to the system's organization and strength. As a
result, the NHC intensity forecast shows possible restrengthening at
the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 33.7N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 34.5N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 36.0N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 37.4N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 38.5N 47.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 39.0N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 38.6N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 35.7N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 33.7N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 141456
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Don Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 14 2023

...DON WEAKENS A LITTLE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 47.3W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 47.3 West. Don is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and that
general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north is expected Saturday, followed by a turn toward the east by
Sunday or Monday.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional gradual weakening is expected during the next few days,
and Don could possibly become a post-tropical cyclone or remnant
low at any time.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 141455
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
1500 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 47.3W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 210SE 0SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 47.3W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 47.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.0N 47.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.4N 48.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 38.5N 47.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 39.0N 46.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.6N 43.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 35.7N 40.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 33.7N 38.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 47.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 140832
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Fri Jul 14 2023

The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring roughly midway
between Bermuda and the Azores has become Subtropical Storm Don.
The storm is assessed as subtropical because it is embedded within
an upper-level trough and has a relatively large radius of maximum
wind. Several hours ago, a well-defined center of circulation
developed and deep convection has remained sufficiently organized,
especially in bands to the east of the center. A pair of partial
ASCAT passes from around 00Z showed peak winds around 45 kt, and
that is the initial intensity set for this advisory.

Don has been moving slowly northward at about 5 kt during the past 6
to 12 hours, and a continued slow northward or north-northwestward
motion is expected during the next couple of days as a building
ridge over the central Atlantic prevents it from accelerating
poleward. That ridge is expected to weaken on Sunday while another
ridge builds to the southeast of Don and a trough amplifies over the
northeastern Atlantic. This pattern change should cause Don to turn
eastward on Sunday and then southeastward early next week. The NHC
track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, in
best agreement with the various consensus aids.

The storm is likely near its peak intensity already. Dry air is
wrapping in on the south and west sides of the circulation and that
stable air is expected to continue to entrain into the storm during
the next several days. In addition, sea surface temperatures are
expected to decrease along the forecast track during the next 2 or
3 days. Although the environment is not conducive for
strengthening, it is also not hostile enough to cause significant
weakening. Therefore, the NHC official forecast shows a gradual
decay in Don?--s strength. The environment looks more conducive by
the end of the period, and some strengthening is possible by then
if the storm survives that long. The NHC intensity forecast
follows the theme of the models, which are tightly clustered.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 32.9N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 33.5N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 34.9N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 36.4N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 37.6N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 38.4N 47.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 38.5N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 35.9N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 33.4N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 140831
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Don Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Fri Jul 14 2023

...SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 46.8W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 46.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected during the next couple of days. A turn to the
east is forecast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) east of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 140831
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
0900 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 46.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 46.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 46.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.9N 47.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.4N 47.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 37.6N 47.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 38.4N 47.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.5N 44.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 35.9N 40.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 33.4N 38.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 46.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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