Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FOUR-E-23 Off-shore from 21 Jul 2023 09:00 UTC to 22 Jul 2023 15:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FOUR-E-23

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

22/07 14:36 WTPZ44KNHC221435

22/07 14:35 WTPZ34KNHC221434

22/07 14:35 WTPZ24KNHC221434

22/07 08:41 WTPZ44KNHC220840

22/07 08:40 WTPZ34KNHC220839

22/07 08:39 WTPZ24KNHC220837

22/07 02:41 WTPZ44KNHC220240

22/07 02:41 WTPZ34KNHC220239

22/07 02:40 WTPZ24KNHC220239

21/07 20:33 WTPZ44KNHC212031

21/07 20:32 WTPZ34KNHC212031

21/07 20:32 WTPZ24KNHC212030

21/07 14:41 WTPZ44KNHC211439

21/07 14:40 WTPZ34KNHC211438

21/07 14:39 WTPZ24KNHC211438

21/07 08:57 WTPZ44KNHC210855

21/07 08:52 WTPZ34KNHC210851

21/07 08:50 WTPZ24KNHC210849

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 221435
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023

The depression has been devoid of deep convection near its center
since yesterday as it continues to deal with strong
west-southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air. What little
convection remains is well displaced from the center. The Dvorak
satellite estimate from TAFB was that the system is too weak to
classify. Given the satellite trends, the depression has degenerated
into a remnant low with an intensity set at 25 kt.

The remnant low is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. This general
motion should continue due to the steering flow from a low-
to mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the system.
Gradual weakening will continue over the next 24 hours, before the
system opens up into a trough tomorrow.

This is the final NHC advisory for this system. For additional
information on the remnant low, please see the High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 17.0N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0000Z 17.4N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 17.6N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 221434
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...DEPRESSION WEAKENS INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 129.4W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E
was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 129.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnant low is expected to continue weakening and open up into
a trough tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 221434
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023
1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 129.4W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 129.4W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 128.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.4N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.6N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 129.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 220840
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023

The depression lost all of its deep convection several hours ago as
strong west-southwesterly shear has continued to disrupt the system.
Recently, a few small cells have formed about 100 miles from the
center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory
based on a blend of subjective satellite estimates and an offset
ASCAT-C pass containing several 20-25 kt observations. However, it
seems likely the depression will degenerate into a remnant low later
today.

The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. This general
motion should continue due to the steering flow from a mid-level
ridge to the north and northwest of the depression. The NHC
forecast has been updated with minor adjustments to the north of
the previous advisory and lies close to, though a little faster
than, the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 16.6N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 17.0N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0600Z 17.4N 131.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 17.6N 133.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 220839
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 128.2W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 128.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue through today, followed
by a turn westward on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a remnant low today and open
up into a trough on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 220837
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023
0900 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 128.2W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 128.2W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 127.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 131.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.6N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 128.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 220240
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

This evening's satellite presentation consists of a rapidly
deteriorating cloud pattern and the depression's less-defined
and exposed surface circulation; effects of belligerent
west-southwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt
and is supported by the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB. A slow spin-down is anticipated as it continues its trek
over cooler water and moves into a stable, drier air mass as
evidenced by the stratocumulus marine layer ahead of the system.
Most of the guidance indicates organized, deep convection will
cease tomorrow, and the NHC forecast specifies the cyclone
degenerating to a remnant low at that time.

The depression's initial motion is estimated to be
west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A mid-level ridge anchored to
the north and northwest of the depression should result in a
west-northwestward to westward track during the next couple of
days. The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the
south of the previous one and follows the latest HFIP Corrected
consensus and TVCE multi-model solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 16.1N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 16.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 17.0N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 220239
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION LIMPING ACROSS THE TROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 126.8W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 126.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours,
followed by a turn westward on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a remnant low Saturday
and open up into a trough on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 220239
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023
0300 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 126.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 126.8W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 128.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.0N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 126.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 212031
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Tropical Depression Four is currently struggling to produce deep
convection within a highly sheared environment. Convection has waned
since this morning, with cloud tops continuing to warm this
afternoon. The low-level center has also become more exposed with
remaining convection to the east of the center. Subjective and
objective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMMS ADT
and AiDT range from 25 to 35 knots. Given the current structure, a
blend of satellite estimates and recent visible satellite trends
yields an initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression continues to be in an environment of strong
upper-level westerly wind shear. The system has crossed into
cooler sea surface temperatures as well, with SSTs continuing to
cool along the forecast track. Given these parameters it is likely
the depression will gradually weaken, becoming a remnant low by
tomorrow, and dissipating by 60 hours.

The system is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A ridge centered
over the southwestern United States should continue to steer the
depression on this general heading and speed for the next 24 hours.
Afterward, the shallow remnant low is expected to turn more westward
in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the
previous forecast track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 15.8N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 16.4N 126.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 17.0N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z 17.4N 130.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 17.7N 132.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 212031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 124.9W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 124.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours,
becoming more westward as the depression weakens into a remnant low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours,
followed by gradual weakening. The system is expected to become a
remnant low by tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 212030
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023
2100 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.9W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.9W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 124.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 126.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.7N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 124.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 211439
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Convection associated with Tropical Depression Four-E has persisted
overnight and into this morning. However, the convective pattern is
one of a strongly sheared system, with cold echo tops only over the
eastern side of the system. In the last few hours, Proxy-vis
satellite imagery shows that the low-level center has become exposed
near the western edge of the convection. Subjective Dvorak satellite
estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.5 and T2.0, respectively. Given
the current structure with the low-level center becoming exposed,
and the subjective satellite estimates, the initial intensity for
this advisory remains at 30 kt.

The depression continues to be in an environment of strong
upper-level westerly wind shear of 25 to 30 knots, which has exposed
the low-level center, and displaced the convection to the east. The
system will be crossing the 25 degree C isotherm later today, with
cooler SSTs remaining along the forecast track. Given these marginal
conditions, it is likely the depression will be short-lived, with
the system becoming a remnant low later this weekend, and
dissipating by 60 hours. However, some models suggest it could
weaken and dissipate sooner.

The system is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A ridge centered
over the southwestern United States should continue to steer the
depression on this general heading and speed for the next day or
so. Afterward, the shallow remnant low is expected to turn more
westward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near
the previous forecast, which is near the center of the consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 15.2N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 15.9N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 16.5N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 16.8N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 211438
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 123.6W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 123.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day, followed
by gradual weakening. The system is expected to become a remnant
low over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 211438
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023
1500 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.9N 125.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 127.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.8N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 210855
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Convection associated with an area of low pressure located nearly
1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has noticeably increased since last night. Earlier
last-light visible satellite imagery showed a well-defined
low-level circulation before deep convection formed and persisted
directly over it. The system therefore meets the criteria for a
tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical
Depression Four-E. The initial intensity is a conservative 30 kt,
based on the satellite trends and a subjective satellite intensity
estimate from TAFB of T2.5.

The depression is being sheared by strong upper-level westerly winds
which are forecast to increase during the next few days. The system
is also crossing over a gradient of sea surface temperatures towards
cooler waters. Given these marginal conditions and global model
guidance it is likely the depression will be short-lived. The
official intensity forecast shows the cyclone gradually weakening,
becoming a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipating by 60 h. However,
some models suggest it could weaken and dissipate sooner.

The system is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A ridge centered
over the southwestern United States should continue to steer the
depression with this general motion for the next day or so.
Afterward, the shallow vortex is expected to turn westward in the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the center of the
model guidance, which is generally in good agreement, and closest to
the simple consensus aid, TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 14.5N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 15.3N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 16.1N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.4N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.7N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 210851
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 122.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 122.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue with a slight increase in
forward speed. A turn to the west is expected in a day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day, followed
by gradual weakening. The system is expected to become a remnant
low over the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 210849
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023
0900 UTC FRI JUL 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 122.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 122.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 121.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 123.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.1N 126.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.4N 128.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 122.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

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