Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DORA-23 Off-shore from 31 Jul 2023 21:00 UTC to 11 Aug 2023 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DORA-23

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

15/08 20:34 WTPN52PGTW152100

15/08 20:27 WTPN32PGTW152100

15/08 15:41 WTPQ32PGUM151540

15/08 13:49 WTPN52PGTW151500

15/08 13:49 WTPN32PGTW151500

15/08 09:21 WTPQ32PGUM150919

15/08 07:53 WTPN52PGTW150900

15/08 07:53 WTPN32PGTW150900

15/08 07:02 WTPQ51RJTD150600

15/08 04:04 WTPQ32PGUM150402

15/08 03:56 WTPQ51RJTD150300

15/08 02:19 WTPN52PGTW150300

15/08 02:18 WTPN32PGTW150300

15/08 01:49 WTPQ31RJTD150000

15/08 01:03 WTPQ51RJTD150000

15/08 01:02 WTJP22RJTD150000

14/08 22:01 WTPQ51RJTD142100

14/08 21:06 WTPQ32PGUM142104

14/08 20:28 WTPN52PGTW142100

14/08 20:27 WTPN32PGTW142100

14/08 19:59 WTPQ31RJTD141800

14/08 19:01 WTPQ51RJTD141800

14/08 19:00 WTJP22RJTD141800

14/08 16:01 WTPQ51RJTD141500

14/08 15:05 WTPQ32PGUM141504

14/08 13:54 WTPQ31RJTD141200

14/08 13:47 WTPN52PGTW141500

14/08 13:45 WTPN32PGTW141500

14/08 13:06 WTPQ51RJTD141200

14/08 13:05 WTJP22RJTD141200

14/08 11:25 WTPQ32PGUM141124CCA

14/08 10:02 WTPQ32PGUM141001

14/08 10:01 WTPQ51RJTD140900

14/08 07:49 WTPN52PGTW140900

14/08 07:47 WTPQ31RJTD140600

14/08 07:03 WTPQ51RJTD140600

14/08 07:02 WTJP22RJTD140600

14/08 04:02 WTPQ51RJTD140300

14/08 02:34 WTPQ32PGUM140233

14/08 02:08 WTPN52PGTW140300

14/08 02:08 WTPN32PGTW140300

14/08 01:56 WTPQ31RJTD140000

14/08 01:11 WTPQ51RJTD140000

14/08 01:10 WTJP22RJTD140000

13/08 22:01 WTPQ51RJTD132100

13/08 22:01 WTJP32RJTD132100

13/08 21:28 WTPQ32PGUM132126

13/08 20:04 WTPN52PGTW132100

13/08 20:04 WTPN32PGTW132100

13/08 19:51 WTPQ31RJTD131800

13/08 19:05 WTPQ51RJTD131800

13/08 19:04 WTJP22RJTD131800

13/08 16:15 WTPQ32PGUM131613

13/08 16:02 WTPQ51RJTD131500

13/08 16:02 WTJP32RJTD131500

13/08 14:08 WTPN52PGTW131500

13/08 14:05 WTPN32PGTW131500

13/08 13:38 WTPQ31RJTD131200

13/08 13:01 WTPQ51RJTD131200

13/08 13:00 WTJP22RJTD131200

13/08 10:02 WTPQ51RJTD130900

13/08 10:02 WTJP32RJTD130900

13/08 09:56 WTPQ32PGUM130955

13/08 08:13 WTPQ31RJTD130600

13/08 07:50 WTPN52PGTW130900

13/08 07:50 WTPN32PGTW130900

13/08 07:07 WTPQ51RJTD130600

13/08 07:07 WTJP22RJTD130600

13/08 04:02 WTJP32RJTD130300

13/08 04:01 WTPQ51RJTD130300

13/08 02:38 WTPQ32PGUM130236

13/08 02:02 WTPQ31RJTD130000

13/08 01:40 WTPN52PGTW130300

13/08 01:38 WTPN32PGTW130300

13/08 01:02 WTPQ51RJTD130000

13/08 01:01 WTJP22RJTD130000

12/08 22:01 WTPQ51RJTD122100

12/08 22:01 WTJP32RJTD122100

12/08 21:38 WTPQ32PGUM122136

12/08 20:14 WTPQ31RJTD121800

12/08 19:10 WTPQ51RJTD121800

12/08 19:09 WTJP22RJTD121800

12/08 16:25 WTPQ32PGUM121623

12/08 16:01 WTPQ51RJTD121500

12/08 16:01 WTJP32RJTD121500

12/08 14:23 WTPQ31RJTD121200

12/08 13:58 WTPN52PGTW121500

12/08 13:55 WTPN32PGTW121500

12/08 13:11 WTPQ51RJTD121200

12/08 13:10 WTJP22RJTD121200

12/08 10:01 WTPQ51RJTD120900

12/08 10:01 WTJP32RJTD120900

12/08 08:49 WTPQ32PGUM120848

12/08 08:14 WTPN52PGTW120900

12/08 08:12 WTPN32PGTW120900

12/08 07:35 WTPQ31RJTD120600

12/08 07:01 WTPQ51RJTD120600

12/08 07:00 WTJP22RJTD120600

12/08 04:01 WTPQ51RJTD120300

12/08 04:01 WTJP32RJTD120300

12/08 02:18 WTPQ31RJTD120000

12/08 01:30 WTPQ51RJTD120000

12/08 01:29 WTJP22RJTD120000

11/08 20:54 WTPA42PHFO112052

11/08 20:46 WTPA32PHFO112045

11/08 20:38 WTPA22PHFO112037

11/08 16:14 WTNT82EGRR111613

11/08 16:14 WTNT80EGRR111613

11/08 15:00 WTPN31PHNC111600

11/08 14:36 WTPA42PHFO111435

11/08 14:34 WTPA32PHFO111434

11/08 14:32 WTPA22PHFO111431

11/08 09:03 WTPN31PHNC111000

11/08 08:36 WTPA42PHFO110834

11/08 08:34 WTPA32PHFO110833

11/08 08:33 WTPA22PHFO110833

11/08 03:10 WTPN31PHNC110400

11/08 02:38 WTPA42PHFO110237

11/08 02:36 WTPA32PHFO110235

11/08 02:36 WTPA22PHFO110235

10/08 23:17 WTPN31PHNC102200

10/08 20:51 WTPA42PHFO102050

10/08 20:43 WTPA32PHFO102042

10/08 20:39 WTPA22PHFO102038

10/08 14:35 WTPA42PHFO101434

10/08 14:33 WTPA32PHFO101432

10/08 14:33 WTPA22PHFO101432

10/08 09:27 WTPN31PHNC101000

10/08 08:52 WTPA42PHFO100851

10/08 08:37 WTPA32PHFO100836

10/08 08:36 WTPA22PHFO100835

10/08 04:11 WTNT82EGRR100410

10/08 04:11 WTNT80EGRR100410

10/08 03:07 WTPN31PHNC100400

10/08 02:47 WTPA42PHFO100245

10/08 02:47 WTPA32PHFO100247

10/08 02:47 WTPA22PHFO100246

09/08 21:39 WTPN31PHNC092200

09/08 20:47 WTPA42PHFO092046

09/08 20:47 WTPA32PHFO092047

09/08 20:46 WTPA22PHFO092046

09/08 14:58 WTPN31PHNC091600

09/08 14:37 WTPA42PHFO091436

09/08 14:33 WTPA32PHFO091432

09/08 14:31 WTPA22PHFO091431

09/08 09:08 WTPN31PHNC091000

09/08 08:36 WTPA42PHFO090835

09/08 08:33 WTPA32PHFO090832

09/08 08:32 WTPA22PHFO090831

09/08 03:58 WTPN31PHNC090400

09/08 02:41 WTPA42PHFO090239

09/08 02:39 WTPA32PHFO090238

09/08 02:39 WTPA22PHFO090238

08/08 21:37 WTPN31PHNC082200

08/08 20:56 WTPA42PHFO082055

08/08 20:38 WTPA32PHFO082037

08/08 20:36 WTPA22PHFO082035

08/08 16:11 WTNT82EGRR081611

08/08 15:26 WTPN31PHNC081600

08/08 14:34 WTPA42PHFO081433

08/08 14:32 WTPA32PHFO081431

08/08 14:31 WTPA22PHFO081430

08/08 09:51 WTPN31PHNC081000

08/08 08:44 WTPA42PHFO080843

08/08 08:37 WTPA32PHFO080836

08/08 08:36 WTPA22PHFO080836

08/08 03:47 WTPN31PHNC080400

08/08 02:36 WTPA42PHFO080235

08/08 02:34 WTPA32PHFO080233

08/08 02:31 WTPA22PHFO080231

08/08 00:15 WTPN31PHNC072200

07/08 20:41 WTPA42PHFO072040

07/08 20:39 WTPA22PHFO072038

07/08 20:38 WTPA32PHFO072038

07/08 16:13 WTNT82EGRR071612

07/08 16:12 WTNT80EGRR071612

07/08 14:35 WTPA42PHFO071434

07/08 14:33 WTPA32PHFO071433

07/08 14:33 WTPA22PHFO071433

07/08 09:55 WTPN31PHNC071000

07/08 08:34 WTPA42PHFO070833

07/08 08:32 WTPA32PHFO070831

07/08 08:32 WTPA22PHFO070832

07/08 03:48 WTPN31PHNC070400

07/08 02:47 WTPA42PHFO070245

07/08 02:40 WTPA32PHFO070240

07/08 02:40 WTPA22PHFO070240

06/08 21:24 WTPN31PHNC062200

06/08 20:44 WTPA42PHFO062042

06/08 20:39 WTPA32PHFO062039

06/08 20:38 WTPA22PHFO062038

06/08 20:36 WTPA45PHFO062034

06/08 20:34 WTPA35PHFO062033

06/08 20:33 WTPA25PHFO062033

06/08 15:29 WTPN31PHNC061600

06/08 14:51 WTPZ45KNHC061449

06/08 14:50 WTPZ35KNHC061448

06/08 14:49 WTPZ25KNHC061448

06/08 08:51 WTPN31PHNC061000

06/08 08:50 WTPZ45KNHC060848

06/08 08:47 WTPZ35KNHC060846

06/08 08:46 WTPZ25KNHC060845

06/08 02:46 WTPN31PHNC060400

06/08 02:42 WTPZ45KNHC060241

06/08 02:42 WTPZ35KNHC060240

06/08 02:41 WTPZ25KNHC060240

05/08 21:29 WTPN31PHNC052200

05/08 20:39 WTPZ45KNHC052037

05/08 20:38 WTPZ35KNHC052037

05/08 20:38 WTPZ25KNHC052036

05/08 17:48 WTPZ45KNHC051746

05/08 17:47 WTPZ35KNHC051745

05/08 17:47 WTPZ25KNHC051745

05/08 15:30 WTPN31PHNC051600

05/08 14:34 WTPZ45KNHC051433

05/08 14:33 WTPZ35KNHC051431

05/08 14:33 WTPZ25KNHC051431

05/08 09:57 WTPN31PHNC051000

05/08 08:51 WTPZ45KNHC050850

05/08 08:50 WTPZ35KNHC050848

05/08 08:49 WTPZ25KNHC050848

05/08 03:01 WTPN31PHNC050400

05/08 02:34 WTPZ45KNHC050233

05/08 02:34 WTPZ35KNHC050232

05/08 02:33 WTPZ25KNHC050232

04/08 21:22 WTPN31PHNC042200

04/08 20:37 WTPZ45KNHC042035

04/08 20:36 WTPZ35KNHC042034

04/08 20:36 WTPZ25KNHC042034

04/08 15:00 WTPN31PHNC041600

04/08 14:39 WTPZ45KNHC041438

04/08 14:38 WTPZ35KNHC041437

04/08 14:38 WTPZ25KNHC041436

04/08 09:39 WTPN31PHNC041000

04/08 08:55 WTPZ45KNHC040854

04/08 08:51 WTPZ35KNHC040849

04/08 08:48 WTPZ25KNHC040847

04/08 03:13 WTPN31PHNC040400

04/08 02:40 WTPZ45KNHC040238

04/08 02:38 WTPZ35KNHC040237

04/08 02:38 WTPZ25KNHC040237

04/08 01:03 WTPZ65KNHC040100

03/08 21:14 WTPN31PHNC032200

03/08 20:39 WTPZ45KNHC032038

03/08 20:38 WTPZ35KNHC032037

03/08 20:37 WTPZ25KNHC032036

03/08 16:50 WTNT82EGRR031650

03/08 16:50 WTNT80EGRR031650

03/08 15:00 WTPN31PHNC031600

03/08 14:39 WTPZ45KNHC031437

03/08 14:38 WTPZ35KNHC031437

03/08 14:38 WTPZ25KNHC031436

03/08 09:09 WTPN31PHNC031000

03/08 08:51 WTPZ45KNHC030850

03/08 08:46 WTPZ35KNHC030844

03/08 08:46 WTPZ25KNHC030844

03/08 04:25 WTNT82EGRR030424

03/08 04:25 WTNT80EGRR030424

03/08 03:29 WTPN31PHNC030400

03/08 02:38 WTPZ45KNHC030237

03/08 02:37 WTPZ35KNHC030236

03/08 02:37 WTPZ25KNHC030236

02/08 20:53 WTPZ45KNHC022051

02/08 20:50 WTPZ35KNHC022048

02/08 20:49 WTPZ25KNHC022047

02/08 14:43 WTPZ45KNHC021442

02/08 14:41 WTPZ35KNHC021439

02/08 14:40 WTPZ25KNHC021438

02/08 08:44 WTPZ45KNHC020842

02/08 08:43 WTPZ35KNHC020841

02/08 08:42 WTPZ25KNHC020840

02/08 02:36 WTPZ45KNHC020235

02/08 02:35 WTPZ35KNHC020234

02/08 02:35 WTPZ25KNHC020234

01/08 21:02 WTPZ25KNHC012100

01/08 20:50 WTPZ45KNHC012048

01/08 20:43 WTPZ35KNHC012041

01/08 14:43 WTPZ45KNHC011441

01/08 14:42 WTPZ35KNHC011440

01/08 14:41 WTPZ25KNHC011439

01/08 08:46 WTPZ45KNHC010844

01/08 08:44 WTPZ35KNHC010842

01/08 08:43 WTPZ25KNHC010842

01/08 02:45 WTPZ45KNHC010243

01/08 02:44 WTPZ35KNHC010243

01/08 02:44 WTPZ25KNHC010243

31/07 20:43 WTPZ45KNHC312041

31/07 20:40 WTPZ35KNHC312038

31/07 20:38 WTPZ25KNHC312036

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230815201814
2023081518 05E DORA 062 02 020 14 SATL 060
T000 239N 1684E 030
T012 257N 1686E 030
T024 273N 1682E 025
T036 287N 1675E 025
T048 300N 1668E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 062
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 062
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 23.9N 168.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 168.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.7N 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 27.3N 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 28.7N 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.0N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 168.5E.
15AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
293 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081312 181N1727E 45
0523081318 184N1714E 40
0523081400 187N1701E 40
0523081406 191N1692E 35
0523081412 196N1687E 35
0523081418 202N1684E 35
0523081500 205N1678E 30
0523081506 214N1677E 30
0523081512 226N1679E 30
0523081518 239N1684E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 062//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 062
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 23.9N 168.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 168.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.7N 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 27.3N 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 28.7N 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.0N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 168.5E.
15AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
293 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 151540
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Dora (05E) Advisory Number 61
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
140 AM ChST Wed Aug 16 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA MOVING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...22.9N 167.5E

About 255 miles north-northeast of Wake
About 1120 miles north-northwest of Majuro
About 1620 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north...355 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Dora was
located near Latitude 22.9 degrees North and Longitude 167.5 degrees
East. Dora is moving north at 13 mph. It is expected to maintain this
general course with a slight decrease in forward speed through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Dora is forecast to maintain
this intensity tonight then begin to weaken as it starts to dissipate.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko/Simpson

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230815133240
2023081512 05E DORA 061 02 355 11 SATL 045
T000 225N 1676E 030
T012 242N 1673E 030
T024 260N 1672E 025
T036 276N 1671E 025
T048 290N 1667E 025
T072 312N 1665E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 061
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 061
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 22.5N 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.2N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.0N 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 27.6N 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 29.0N 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.2N 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 167.5E.
15AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1339 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081312 181N1727E 45
0523081318 184N1714E 40
0523081400 187N1701E 40
0523081406 191N1692E 35
0523081412 196N1687E 35
0523081418 202N1684E 35
0523081500 205N1678E 30
0523081506 214N1677E 30
0523081512 225N1676E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 061//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 061
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 22.5N 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.2N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.0N 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 27.6N 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 29.0N 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.2N 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 167.5E.
15AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1339 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
151200Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 150919
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Dora (05E) Advisory Number 60
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
719 PM ChST Tue Aug 15 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA NOW MOVING NORTH...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...21.8N 167.6E

About 185 miles north-northeast of Wake
About 1045 miles north-northwest of Majuro
About 1605 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...north...355 degrees at 10 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Dora
was located near Latitude 21.8 degrees North and Longitude 167.6
degrees East. Dora is moving north at 10 mph. It is expected to
maintain this general course with a slight increase in forward speed
over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph. Dora is forecast to
maintain this intensity through Wednesday before resuming a weakening
trend.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 AM ChST early Wednesday morning.

$$

Kleeschulte

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230815074432
2023081506 05E DORA 060 02 355 09 SATL SYNP 040
T000 214N 1677E 030
T012 230N 1672E 030
T024 249N 1671E 030
T036 266N 1670E 025
T048 280N 1670E 025
T072 305N 1672E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 060
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 060
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 21.4N 167.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 167.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.0N 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.9N 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.6N 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 28.0N 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.5N 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 167.6E.
15AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1322 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081312 181N1727E 45
0523081318 184N1714E 40
0523081400 187N1701E 40
0523081406 191N1692E 35
0523081412 196N1687E 35
0523081418 202N1684E 35
0523081500 205N1678E 30
0523081506 214N1677E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 060//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 060
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 21.4N 167.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 167.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.0N 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.9N 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.6N 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 28.0N 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.5N 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 167.6E.
15AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1322 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
150600Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 21N 168E
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 150402
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Dora (05E) Advisory Number 59
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
202 PM ChST Tue Aug 15 2023

...DORA DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...20.7N 167.6E

About 115 miles north-northeast of Wake
About 970 miles north-northwest of Majuro
About 1585 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...300 degrees at 7 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression Dora
was located near Latitude 20.7 degrees North and Longitude 167.6
degrees East. Dora is moving west-northwest at 7 mph. It is expected
to make a slight turn toward the northwest with little change in
forward speed over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 35 mph. Dora is forecast
to maintain this intensity through Wednesday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 AM ChST early Wednesday morning.

$$

Kleeschulte

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 20.8N 167.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 151500UTC 23.6N 167.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 160300UTC 25.8N 167.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 170000UTC 28.8N 167.8E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230815021216
2023081500 05E DORA 059 02 300 06 SATL 030
T000 205N 1678E 030
T012 212N 1670E 030
T024 220N 1664E 030
T036 238N 1655E 025
T048 262N 1659E 025
T072 298N 1679E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 059
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 059
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.5N 167.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 167.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.2N 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.0N 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.8N 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.2N 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 29.8N 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 167.6E.
15AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
100 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081312 181N1727E 45
0523081318 184N1714E 40
0523081400 187N1701E 40
0523081406 191N1692E 35
0523081412 196N1687E 35
0523081418 202N1684E 35
0523081500 205N1678E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 059//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 059
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.5N 167.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 167.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.2N 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.0N 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.8N 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.2N 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 29.8N 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 167.6E.
15AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
100 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DORA IS LOCATED AT 20.5N, 167.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 20.5N 167.8E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 151200UTC 23.0N 167.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 160000UTC 25.3N 167.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 170000UTC 28.8N 167.8E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2308 DORA (2308) 1004 HPA
AT 20.5N 167.8E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 23.0N 167.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 25.3N 167.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 28.8N 167.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 20.4N 168.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 150900UTC 22.9N 167.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 152100UTC 24.9N 167.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 161800UTC 28.1N 167.9E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 142104
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora (05E) Advisory Number 58
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
704 AM ChST Tue Aug 15 2023

...TROPICAL STORM DORA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...20.9N 168.3E

About 155 miles northeast of Wake
About 975 miles north of Majuro
About 1630 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...north-northwest...345 degrees at 10 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Dora
was located near Latitude 20.9 degrees North and Longitude
168.3 degrees East. Dora is moving north-northwest at 10 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the north with little
change in forward speed through Wendnesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40 mph. Dora is
forecast to weaken through Wednesday, then begin to strengthen
afterwards.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
45 miles to the northeast.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Bowsher

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230814202025
2023081418 05E DORA 058 02 345 09 SATL 060
T000 205N 1684E 035 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 222N 1679E 030
T024 240N 1677E 030
T036 257N 1677E 035 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 277N 1678E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 302N 1679E 045 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 326N 1693E 045 R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 346N 1727E 035 R034 000 NE QD 110 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 058
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 058
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 168.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 168.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.2N 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.0N 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.7N 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 27.7N 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.2N 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 32.6N 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 34.6N 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 168.3E.
14AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081312 181N1727E 45
0523081318 184N1714E 40
0523081400 187N1701E 40
0523081406 191N1692E 35
0523081412 196N1687E 35
0523081418 205N1684E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 058//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 058
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 168.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 168.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.2N 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.0N 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.7N 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 27.7N 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.2N 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 32.6N 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 34.6N 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 168.3E.
14AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 1004
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DORA IS LOCATED AT 20.3N, 168.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 20.3N 168.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 150600UTC 22.4N 167.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 151800UTC 24.4N 167.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 161800UTC 28.1N 167.9E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2308 DORA (2308) 1000 HPA
AT 20.3N 168.5E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 22.4N 167.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 24.4N 167.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 28.1N 167.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 20.0N 168.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 150300UTC 22.1N 167.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 151500UTC 23.7N 167.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 161200UTC 26.8N 167.9E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 141504
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora (05E) Advisory Number 57
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
104 AM ChST Tue Aug 15 2023

...TROPICAL STORM DORA MOVING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...20.2N 168.2E

About 120 miles east-northeast of Wake
About 930 miles north-northwest of Majuro
About 1610 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...northwest...305 degrees at 09 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Dora
was located near Latitude 20.2 degrees North and Longitude
168.2 degrees East. Dora is moving northwest at 10 mph. It is
expected to make a turn toward the north with little change in
forward speed through Thrusday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph. Dora is
forecast to maintain this intensity through Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
35 miles to the northeast only.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Bowsher

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DORA IS LOCATED AT 19.7N, 168.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230814133436
2023081412 05E DORA 057 02 305 09 SATL 025
T000 198N 1684E 040 R034 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 214N 1676E 040 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 231N 1674E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 249N 1673E 040 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 266N 1674E 040 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 291N 1673E 045 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 317N 1677E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 350N 1705E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 057
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 057
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 168.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 168.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.4N 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.1N 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.9N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.6N 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 29.1N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.7N 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 35.0N 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 168.2E.14AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
96 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141200Z IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081312 181N1727E 45
0523081318 184N1714E 40
0523081400 187N1701E 40
0523081406 193N1692E 35
0523081412 198N1684E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 057//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 057
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 168.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 168.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.4N 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.1N 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.9N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.6N 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 29.1N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 31.7N 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 35.0N 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 168.2E.14AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
96 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141200Z IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 19.7N 168.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 150000UTC 21.5N 167.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 151200UTC 23.3N 167.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 161200UTC 26.8N 167.9E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2308 DORA (2308) 1000 HPA
AT 19.7N 168.5E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 21.5N 167.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 23.3N 167.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 26.8N 167.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 141124 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Storm Dora (05E) Advisory Number 56
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
924 PM ChST Mon Aug 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM DORA MOVING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...19.3N 169.2E

About 165 miles east of Wake Island
About 1465 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...northwest...305 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Dora
was located near Latitude 19.3 degrees North and Longitude
169.2 degrees East. Dora is moving northwest at 12 mph. It is
expected to make a northward turn with a slight decrease
in forward speed tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40 mph. Dora is
forecast to maintain this intensity through Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
30 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Dora.

$$

Hong/Doll

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 141001
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora (05E) Advisory Number 56
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
801 PM ChST Mon Aug 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM DORA MOVING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...19.3N 169.2E

About 165 miles east of Wake Island

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...northwest...305 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Dora
was located near Latitude 19.3 degrees North and Longitude
169.2 degrees East. Dora is moving northwest at 12 mph. It is
expected to make a northward turn with a slight decrease
in forward speed tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40 mph. Dora is
forecast to maintain this intensity through Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
30 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Dora.

$$

Hong

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 19.2N 168.7E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 142100UTC 20.8N 167.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 150900UTC 22.7N 167.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 160600UTC 25.5N 167.5E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230814071846
2023081406 05E DORA 056 02 305 10 SATL 015
T000 193N 1692E 035 R034 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 206N 1679E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 223N 1675E 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 239N 1673E 035 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 257N 1673E 035 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 282N 1671E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 309N 1668E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 344N 1690E 035 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 056
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 056
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 169.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 169.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.6N 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.3N 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.9N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.7N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 28.2N 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.9N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 34.4N 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 168.9E. 14AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS 1007 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081312 181N1727E 45
0523081318 184N1714E 40
0523081400 187N1701E 40
0523081406 193N1692E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DORA IS LOCATED AT 19.3N, 169.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 19.3N 169.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 141800UTC 20.4N 168.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 150600UTC 22.3N 167.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 160600UTC 25.5N 167.5E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2308 DORA (2308) 998 HPA
AT 19.3N 169.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 20.4N 168.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 22.3N 167.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 25.5N 167.5E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 19.0N 169.8E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 141500UTC 20.0N 168.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 150300UTC 21.5N 167.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 160000UTC 24.7N 167.1E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 170000UTC 27.3N 167.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 140233
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora (05E) Advisory Number 55
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
1233 PM ChST Mon Aug 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM DORA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...19.0N 169.7E

About 200 miles east of Wake Island
About 830 miles north of Majuro
About 1690 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...285 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near Latitude 19.0 degrees North and Longitude 169.7 degrees
East. Dora is moving west-northwest at 15 mph. It is expected to make
a turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed
through Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Dora is forecast to
maintain this intensity through tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
30 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST, this Monday evening.

$$

Montvila

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230814015341
2023081400 05E DORA 055 02 285 13 SATL 030
T000 187N 1701E 040 R034 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 197N 1684E 040 R034 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 212N 1675E 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 229N 1673E 040 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 246N 1672E 035 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 275N 1674E 035 R034 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 301N 1675E 030
T120 335N 1688E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 055
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 055
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 18.7N 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 170.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.7N 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.2N 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.9N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.6N 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 27.5N 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 30.1N 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 33.5N 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 169.7E.
14AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140000Z IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081312 181N1727E 45
0523081318 184N1714E 40
0523081400 187N1701E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 055//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 055
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 18.7N 170.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 170.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.7N 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.2N 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.9N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.6N 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 27.5N 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 30.1N 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 33.5N 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 169.7E.
14AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140000Z IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DORA IS LOCATED AT 18.7N, 170.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2308 DORA (2308) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 18.7N 170.2E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 141200UTC 19.6N 168.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 150000UTC 21.0N 167.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 160000UTC 24.7N 167.1E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 170000UTC 27.3N 167.3E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2308 DORA (2308) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
998 HPA
AT 18.7N 170.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 19.6N 168.4E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 21.0N 167.6E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 24.7N 167.1E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 27.3N 167.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 18.4N 170.9E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 140900UTC 19.4N 169.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 142100UTC 20.7N 167.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 151800UTC 23.9N 167.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 161800UTC 26.9N 167.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 132100
WARNING 132100.
WARNING VALID 142100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2308 DORA (2308) 996 HPA
AT 18.4N 170.9E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 19.4N 169.1E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 20.7N 167.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 132126
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora (05E) Advisory Number 54
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
726 AM ChST Mon Aug 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM DORA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.6N 170.9E

About 280 miles east of Wake
About 795 miles north of Majuro
About 1765 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...285 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Dora
was located near Latitude 18.6 degrees North and Longitude
170.9 degrees East. Dora is moving west-northwest at 15 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 45 mph. Dora is forecast to
maintain this intensity through tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
30 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Bowsher

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230813195247
2023081318 05E DORA 054 02 285 13 SATL 030
T000 184N 1714E 040 R034 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 191N 1695E 040 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 204N 1681E 040 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 220N 1674E 035 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 238N 1673E 030
T072 268N 1675E 025
T096 298N 1678E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 054
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 054
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 171.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 171.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.1N 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.4N 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.0N 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.8N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.8N 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.8N 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 170.9E.
13AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM
EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081306 182N1740E 50
0523081312 181N1727E 45
0523081318 184N1714E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 054//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 054
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 171.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 171.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.1N 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.4N 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.0N 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.8N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.8N 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.8N 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 170.9E.
13AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM
EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS DORA IS LOCATED AT 18.3N, 171.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME OBSCURE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 18.3N 171.4E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 140600UTC 19.2N 169.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 141800UTC 20.3N 168.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 151800UTC 23.9N 167.3E 115NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 161800UTC 26.9N 167.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2308 DORA (2308) 996 HPA
AT 18.3N 171.4E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 19.2N 169.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 20.3N 168.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 23.9N 167.3E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 26.9N 167.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 131613
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora (05E) Advisory Number 53
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
213 AM ChST Mon Aug 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM DORA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.2N 172.4E

About 385 miles east of Wake
About 770 miles north of Majuro
About 1860 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...west-southwest...255 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Dora
was located near Latitude 18.2 degrees North and Longitude
172.4 degrees East. Dora is moving west-southwest at 15 mph. It
is expected to make a turn toward the northwest with a decrease
in forward speed through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 mph. Dora is
forecast to weaken through Tuesday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
30 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST early Tuesday morning.

$$

Bowsher

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 18.1N 172.1E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 140300UTC 19.0N 170.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 141500UTC 20.2N 168.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 151200UTC 22.9N 167.8E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 161200UTC 26.3N 167.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 171200UTC 28.7N 166.7E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 131500
WARNING 131500.
WARNING VALID 141500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2308 DORA (2308) 992 HPA
AT 18.1N 172.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 19.0N 170.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 20.2N 168.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230813132151
2023081312 05E DORA 053 02 255 13 SATL 010
T000 180N 1729E 040 R034 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 187N 1709E 035 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 197N 1695E 030
T036 212N 1685E 030
T048 227N 1683E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 053
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 053
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 18.0N 172.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 172.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.7N 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.7N 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.2N 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.7N 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 172.4E. 13AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
362 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131200Z IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081306 183N1742E 55
0523081306 183N1742E 55
0523081312 180N1729E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 053//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 053
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 18.0N 172.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 172.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.7N 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.7N 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.2N 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.7N 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 172.4E. 13AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
362 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 131200Z IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS DORA IS LOCATED AT 18.1N, 172.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 18.1N 172.9E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 140000UTC 19.0N 170.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 141200UTC 19.8N 169.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 151200UTC 22.9N 167.8E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 161200UTC 26.3N 167.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 171200UTC 28.7N 166.7E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2308 DORA (2308) 992 HPA
AT 18.1N 172.9E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 19.0N 170.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 19.8N 169.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 22.9N 167.8E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 26.3N 167.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 28.7N 166.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 18.1N 173.7E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 132100UTC 19.2N 171.4E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 140900UTC 19.9N 169.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 150600UTC 22.6N 168.2E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 160600UTC 25.9N 168.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 170600UTC 28.7N 168.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 180600UTC 31.9N 167.8E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 130900
WARNING 130900.
WARNING VALID 140900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2308 DORA (2308) 990 HPA
AT 18.1N 173.7E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 19.2N 171.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 19.9N 169.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 130955
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora (05E) Advisory Number 52
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
755 PM ChST Sun Aug 13 2023

...TROPICAL STORM DORA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.5N 173.7E

About 465 miles east of Wake Island
About 805 miles north of Majuro
About 1945 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...65 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Dora
was located near Latitude 18.5 degrees North and Longitude
173.7 degrees East. Dora is moving west-northwest at 12 mph. It
is expected to maintain this general course and speed through
tomorrow, then make a turn and become more northerly.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 65 mph. Dora is forecast to
weaken through Monday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
80 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Monday morning.

$$

Hong

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS DORA IS LOCATED AT 18.1N, 174.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230813073921
2023081306 05E DORA 052 02 290 10 SATL SYNP 035
T000 183N 1742E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 190N 1721E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 200N 1701E 045 R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 212N 1693E 040 R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 228N 1688E 040 R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 267N 1690E 045 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 300N 1702E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 336N 1714E 040 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 052
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 052
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 18.3N 174.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 174.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.0N 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.0N 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.2N 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.8N 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.7N 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 30.0N 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 33.6N 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 173.7E. 13AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
937 NM WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081306 183N1742E 55
0523081306 183N1742E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 052//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 052
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 18.3N 174.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 174.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.0N 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.0N 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.2N 169.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.8N 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.7N 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 30.0N 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 33.6N 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 173.7E. 13AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
937 NM WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2308 DORA (2308) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 18.1N 174.6E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 131800UTC 18.9N 171.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 140600UTC 19.6N 169.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 150600UTC 22.6N 168.2E 115NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 160600UTC 25.9N 168.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 170600UTC 28.7N 168.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 180600UTC 31.9N 167.8E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2308 DORA (2308) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 990
HPA
AT 18.1N 174.6E MIDWAYS MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 18.9N 171.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 19.6N 169.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 22.6N 168.2E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 25.9N 168.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 28.7N 168.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 31.9N 167.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 130300
WARNING 130300.
WARNING VALID 140300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2308 DORA (2308) 985 HPA
AT 18.1N 175.3E MIDWAYS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 18.7N 172.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 19.3N 170.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 18.1N 175.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 131500UTC 18.7N 172.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 140300UTC 19.3N 170.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 150000UTC 21.5N 168.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 160000UTC 24.7N 168.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 170000UTC 27.8N 168.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 180000UTC 31.8N 166.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 130236
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora (05E) Advisory Number 51
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
1236 PM ChST Sun Aug 13 2023

...DORA DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Dora was downgraded from a typhoon, to a tropical storm.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.2N 174.7E

About 530 miles east of Wake Island
About 800 miles north-northeast of Majuro
About 2010 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...65 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near Latitude 18.2 degrees North and Longitude 174.7 degrees
East. Dora is moving west-northwest at 14 mph, and is expected to
maintain this general course with a slight decrease in forward speed
over the next through Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 65 mph. Dora is forecast to
weaken through Tuesday night, before strengthening slightly for a
brief period after.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
80 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST, Sunday evening.

$$

Montvila

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY DORA IS LOCATED AT 18.2N, 175.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 130300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230813011302
2023081300 05E DORA 051 02 290 12 SATL 020
T000 180N 1752E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 188N 1731E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 194N 1714E 045 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 204N 1698E 040 R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 221N 1691E 040 R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 258N 1686E 045 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 292N 1697E 050 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 327N 1716E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 051
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 051
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 05E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 18.0N 175.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 175.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.8N 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.4N 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.4N 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.1N 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 25.8N 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 29.2N 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 32.7N 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 174.7E.
13AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 879 NM
WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 81300Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z,
131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081206 163N1790E 85
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081212 169N1777E 75
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081218 176N1764E 65
0523081300 180N1752E 55
0523081300 180N1752E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 051//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 051
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 05E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 18.0N 175.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 175.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.8N 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.4N 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.4N 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.1N 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 25.8N 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 29.2N 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 32.7N 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 174.7E.
13AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 879 NM
WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 81300Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z,
131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 18.2N 175.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 131200UTC 18.6N 173.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 140000UTC 19.1N 171.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 150000UTC 21.5N 168.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 160000UTC 24.7N 168.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 170000UTC 27.8N 168.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 180000UTC 31.8N 166.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2308 DORA (2308) 985 HPA
AT 18.2N 175.9E MIDWAYS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 18.6N 173.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 19.1N 171.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 21.5N 168.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 24.7N 168.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 27.8N 168.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 31.8N 166.6E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 18.0N 176.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 130900UTC 18.6N 173.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 132100UTC 19.3N 172.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 141800UTC 21.2N 169.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 151800UTC 24.4N 168.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 161800UTC 28.2N 169.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 171800UTC 33.0N 170.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 122100
WARNING 122100.
WARNING VALID 132100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2308 DORA (2308) 985 HPA
AT 18.0N 176.4E MIDWAYS MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 18.6N 173.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 19.3N 172.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 122136
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Typhoon Dora (05E) Advisory Number 50
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
736 AM ChST Sun Aug 13 2023

...TYPHOON DORA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.8N 175.9E

About 610 miles northeast of Utirik
About 615 miles east of Wake
About 805 miles north-northeast of Majuro
About 2085 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...75 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...300 degrees at 16 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Typhoon Dora was
located near Latitude 17.8 degrees North and Longitude
175.9 degrees East. Dora is moving west-northwest at 16 mph. It
is expected to maintain this general course with a slight
decrease in forward speed through monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 75 mph. Dora is
forecast to weaken through Monday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
25 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 80 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST Sunday afternoon.

$$

Bowsher/Stanko

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TY 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY DORA IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 177.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS, DRY AIR AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 17.9N 177.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 130600UTC 18.4N 174.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 131800UTC 19.1N 172.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 141800UTC 21.2N 169.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 151800UTC 24.4N 168.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 161800UTC 28.2N 169.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 171800UTC 33.0N 170.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2308 DORA (2308) 985 HPA
AT 17.9N 177.0E MIDWAYS MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 18.4N 174.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 19.1N 172.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 21.2N 169.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 24.4N 168.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 28.2N 169.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 33.0N 170.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 121623
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Typhoon Dora (05E) Advisory Number 49
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
223 AM ChST Sun Aug 13 2023

...TYPHOON DORA MOVING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.3N 177.6E

About 665 miles northeast of Utirik
About 730 miles east of Wake
About 825 miles north-northeast of Majuro
About 2195 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...85 mph
Present movement...northwest...310 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Typhoon Dora was
located near Latitude 17.3 degrees North and Longitude
177.6 degrees East. Dora is moving northwest at 13 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with
little change in forward speed through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 85 mph. Dora is
forecast to weaken through Monday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
25 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 80 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST early Monday morning.

$$

Bowsher/Stanko

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 17.4N 177.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 18.4N 174.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 131500UTC 19.0N 172.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 141200UTC 20.3N 169.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 151200UTC 23.3N 168.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 161200UTC 26.4N 168.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 171200UTC 29.7N 169.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 121500
WARNING 121500.
WARNING VALID 131500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2308 DORA (2308) 980 HPA
AT 17.4N 177.4E MIDWAYS MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 18.4N 174.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 19.0N 172.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TY 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY DORA IS LOCATED AT 17.0N, 178.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. GPM/GMI
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230812133931
2023081212 05E DORA 049 02 310 11 SATL 010
T000 171N 1782E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 180N 1759E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 188N 1737E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 197N 1718E 060 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 207N 1703E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 236N 1687E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 268N 1689E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 312N 1711E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 049
1. TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 17.1N 178.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 178.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.0N 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.8N 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.7N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.7N 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.6N 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.8N 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 31.2N 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 177.6E. 12AUG23.
TYPHOON 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM
EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 164N1791E 85
0523081206 164N1791E 85
0523081206 164N1791E 85
0523081212 171N1782E 75
0523081212 171N1782E 75
0523081212 171N1782E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 049//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 049
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 17.1N 178.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 178.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.0N 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.8N 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.7N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.7N 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.6N 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.8N 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 31.2N 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 177.6E. 12AUG23.
TYPHOON 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 667 NM
EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 17.0N 178.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 18.3N 175.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 131200UTC 18.8N 173.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 141200UTC 20.3N 169.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 151200UTC 23.3N 168.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 161200UTC 26.4N 168.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 171200UTC 29.7N 169.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2308 DORA (2308) 980 HPA
AT 17.0N 178.0E MIDWAYS MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 18.3N 175.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 18.8N 173.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 20.3N 169.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 23.3N 168.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 26.4N 168.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 29.7N 169.6E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 16.8N 178.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 17.8N 175.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 130900UTC 18.6N 173.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 140600UTC 19.8N 169.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 150600UTC 22.6N 168.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 160600UTC 25.5N 167.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 170600UTC 28.1N 167.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 120900
WARNING 120900.
WARNING VALID 130900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2308 DORA (2308) 980 HPA
AT 16.8N 178.6E MIDWAYS MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 17.8N 175.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 18.6N 173.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 PGUM 120848
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Typhoon Dora (05E) Advisory Number 48
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP052023
648 PM ChST Sat Aug 12 2023

...TYPHOON DORA HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST PACIFIC NORTHEAST OF
UTIRIK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
This is WFO Guam's first issuance as Dora moved across the Date
Line and becomes classified as a Typhoon.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.7N 178.5E

About 695 miles northeast of Utirik
About 800 miles east-southeast of Wake
About 825 miles northeast of Majuro
About 2255 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...100 mph
Present movement...northwest...315 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Typhoon Dora was
located near Latitude 16.7 degrees North and Longitude
178.5 degrees East. Dora is moving northwest at 14 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with
little change in forward speed over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are 100 mph. Dora is forecast to weaken
through Sunday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
25 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 90 miles to the north and up to 35 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Sunday morning.

$$

Simpson

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05E NEP 230812074326
2023081206 05E DORA 048 02 315 12 SATL 015
T000 164N 1791E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 176N 1767E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 185N 1744E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 193N 1724E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 201N 1707E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 226N 1685E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 255N 1681E 040 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 292N 1695E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 048
1. TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 048
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 179.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 179.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.6N 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.5N 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.3N 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.1N 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.6N 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.5N 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 29.2N 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 178.5E. 12AUG23.
TYPHOON 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM
EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 975 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
0523072818 144N 869W 15
0523072900 138N 883W 15
0523072906 133N 896W 15
0523072912 133N 908W 15
0523072918 134N 923W 20
0523073000 136N 937W 25
0523073006 137N 951W 25
0523073012 138N 969W 25
0523073018 138N 985W 25
0523073100 140N 998W 25
0523073106 141N1013W 25
0523073112 143N1026W 25
0523073118 148N1037W 30
0523080100 154N1050W 30
0523080106 158N1064W 35
0523080112 160N1079W 45
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080118 161N1094W 55
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080200 161N1106W 65
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080206 159N1119W 80
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080212 157N1135W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080218 155N1149W 90
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080300 153N1162W 110
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080306 151N1177W 115
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080312 149N1193W 110
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080318 145N1210W 105
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080400 142N1226W 120
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080406 141N1243W 115
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080412 140N1261W 105
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080418 138N1277W 100
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080500 137N1293W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080506 135N1308W 90
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080512 134N1325W 95
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080518 133N1340W 115
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080600 132N1356W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080606 131N1374W 125
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080612 130N1392W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080618 129N1412W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080700 127N1431W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080706 126N1452W 120
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080712 124N1473W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080718 123N1493W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080800 121N1513W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080806 118N1533W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080812 115N1552W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080818 115N1571W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080900 114N1592W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080906 114N1612W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080912 114N1631W 115
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523080918 115N1651W 120
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081000 116N1669W 125
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081006 119N1689W 120
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081012 121N1705W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081018 125N1722W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081100 129N1738W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081106 135N1755W 105
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081112 142N1771W 100
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081118 148N1786W 95
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081200 156N1800E 90
0523081206 164N1791E 85
0523081206 164N1791E 85
0523081206 164N1791E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 048
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 179.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 179.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.6N 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.5N 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.3N 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.1N 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.6N 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.5N 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 29.2N 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 178.5E. 12AUG23.
TYPHOON 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM
EAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 975 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 07W (LAN)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TY 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY DORA IS LOCATED AT 16.3N, 179.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
REDUCTION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 IN A
STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 16.3N 179.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 17.6N 176.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 130600UTC 18.4N 174.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 140600UTC 19.8N 169.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 150600UTC 22.6N 168.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 160600UTC 25.5N 167.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 170600UTC 28.1N 167.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2308 DORA (2308) 980 HPA
AT 16.3N 179.3E MIDWAYS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 17.6N 176.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 18.4N 174.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 19.8N 169.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 22.6N 168.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 25.5N 167.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 28.1N 167.7E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2308 DORA (2308)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 15.9N 179.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 121500UTC 17.2N 176.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 130300UTC 18.1N 174.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 140000UTC 18.9N 171.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 150000UTC 21.0N 168.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 160000UTC 24.0N 166.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 120300
WARNING 120300.
WARNING VALID 130300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2308 DORA (2308) 975 HPA
AT 15.9N 179.8E MIDWAYS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 17.2N 176.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 18.1N 174.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TY 2308 DORA (2308)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY (DORA) HAS CROSSED LONGITUDE 180 DEGREES EAST AND IS NOW OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC. TY DORA IS LOCATED AT 15.5N, 180.0E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2308 DORA (2308) FORMER HR
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 15.5N 180.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 121200UTC 16.8N 177.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 130000UTC 17.8N 175.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 140000UTC 18.9N 171.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 150000UTC 21.0N 168.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 160000UTC 24.0N 166.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2308 DORA (2308) FORMER HURRICANE 975 HPA
AT 15.5N 180.0E MIDWAYS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 16.8N 177.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 17.8N 175.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 18.9N 171.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 21.0N 168.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 24.0N 166.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 112052
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 11 2023

New deep convection continued to develop within the eyewall of Dora
earlier this morning. However, more recent images showed that the
eye has become cloud-filled. In addition, impacts of stronger
vertical shear were becoming increasingly apparent, with the
high level outflow being restricted in the southern quadrant and
the cyclone's overall appearance in the upper levels becoming very
asymmetric. Dora's center is on the limbs of the GOES-18 and
Himawari fields of view. Microwave passes have helped with the
center adjustments, but the long distance from the geostationary
nadir points on both satellites coupled with the cloud-filled eye
has resulted in a greater than usual uncertainty in the initial
position. Dvorak fixes came in at 102 kt from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB.
The ADT and AiDT estimates were 92 and 88 kt, respectively. Based on
a blend of these estimates, and the degradation of Dora's
appearance in the satellite images, the initial intensity for this
advisory is lowered to 95 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory is 295/16kt. This motion is
expected to continue over the next 48 hours as Dora moves along the
southwest flank of a deep layer anticyclone centered to the
northeast. Dora's forward motion is expected to become slower
gradually and turn more northwestward as it moves toward a weakness
in the ridge produced by an upper level trough to the northwest.
The spread of the guidance envelope is larger than previous
advisories. This is likely due to differences in the location and
strength of the upper level trough in the various models. The
forecast track for this advisory has been shifted slightly south of
the previous advisory and is aligned with the trend of the TVCE
consensus.

Dora's intensity is expected to continue to decrease through the
forecast period. Based on the track forecast, SSTs under the
tropical cyclone should remain above 28C. The main issue at this
point is the strength of the vertical shear. GFS and ECMWF
guidance shows an increase in the vertical shear over the next 48
hours. However, there are significant differences in shear strength,
with the shear in the ECMWF remaining at moderate to strong
levels beyond 48 hours, and the GFS shear becoming much weaker. The
intensity forecast is generally in line with the previous advisory
and is close to a blend of the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B.

This is the final advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system. The next bulletin will be issued by RSMC
Tokyo, Japan unless re-entry or slow-down occurs. For U.S.
interests, see the public advisories issued by the U.S. NWS Weather
Forecast Office in Guam, and Department of Defense warnings issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 15.3N 179.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 16.2N 178.7E 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.3N 176.4E 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 18.0N 174.4E 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 18.6N 172.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 19.1N 170.7E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 20.0N 169.2E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 22.0N 167.5E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 24.5N 166.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kodama

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 112045
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 11 2023

...DORA HEADING WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 179.3W
ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Wake Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 179.3 West. Dora is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). Dora's motion is
expected to gradually slow down and become more northwestward over
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Dora will be steadily weakening over the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the final advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system. The next bulletin will be issued by RSMC
Tokyo, Japan unless re-entry or slow-down occurs. For U.S.
interests, see Department of Defense warnings issued by the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

$$
Forecaster Kodama

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 112037
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
2100 UTC FRI AUG 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 179.3W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 130SE 110SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 179.3W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 178.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.2N 178.7E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.3N 176.4E
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.0N 174.4E
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.6N 172.5E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.1N 170.7E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.0N 169.2E
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 22.0N 167.5E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 24.5N 166.5E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 179.3W

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC TOKYO JAPAN
UNLESS RE-ENTRY OR SLOW-DOWN OCCURS. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 111613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 109.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.08.2023 0 11.9N 109.2W 1009 17
0000UTC 12.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 176.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.08.2023 0 14.2N 176.9W 957 91
0000UTC 12.08.2023 12 15.6N 179.9W 970 79
1200UTC 12.08.2023 24 16.8N 177.5E 983 66
0000UTC 13.08.2023 36 17.8N 175.2E 988 63
1200UTC 13.08.2023 48 18.2N 173.1E 991 65
0000UTC 14.08.2023 60 18.6N 171.1E 996 55
1200UTC 14.08.2023 72 19.2N 169.4E 1002 44
0000UTC 15.08.2023 84 20.0N 168.3E 1005 37
1200UTC 15.08.2023 96 21.6N 167.3E 1007 33
0000UTC 16.08.2023 108 23.4N 166.6E 1007 32
1200UTC 16.08.2023 120 25.5N 166.7E 1008 32
0000UTC 17.08.2023 132 28.8N 168.0E 1005 35
1200UTC 17.08.2023 144 32.8N 170.1E 1005 38
0000UTC 18.08.2023 156 36.8N 170.9E 1008 33
1200UTC 18.08.2023 168 38.7N 172.1E 1013 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.0N 116.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2023 48 15.0N 116.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 14.08.2023 60 15.2N 119.0W 1004 34
1200UTC 14.08.2023 72 14.9N 121.0W 1002 32
0000UTC 15.08.2023 84 14.8N 123.0W 1002 31
1200UTC 15.08.2023 96 14.9N 125.4W 1003 32
0000UTC 16.08.2023 108 14.7N 128.0W 1003 35
1200UTC 16.08.2023 120 14.2N 131.0W 1004 32
0000UTC 17.08.2023 132 13.4N 134.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 17.08.2023 144 12.8N 136.8W 1001 40
0000UTC 18.08.2023 156 12.8N 139.7W 999 39
1200UTC 18.08.2023 168 13.1N 142.7W 999 42

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111613

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 111613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 109.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.08.2023 11.9N 109.2W WEAK
00UTC 12.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 176.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.08.2023 14.2N 176.9W INTENSE
00UTC 12.08.2023 15.6N 179.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.08.2023 16.8N 177.5E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.08.2023 17.8N 175.2E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2023 18.2N 173.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2023 18.6N 171.1E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.08.2023 19.2N 169.4E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.08.2023 20.0N 168.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2023 21.6N 167.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2023 23.4N 166.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2023 25.5N 166.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2023 28.8N 168.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2023 32.8N 170.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2023 36.8N 170.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 38.7N 172.1E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.0N 116.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.08.2023 15.0N 116.5W WEAK
00UTC 14.08.2023 15.2N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2023 14.9N 121.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2023 14.8N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2023 14.9N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2023 14.7N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2023 14.2N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2023 13.4N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2023 12.8N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2023 12.8N 139.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 13.1N 142.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111613

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 177.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 177.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.7N 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.9N 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.8N 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.3N 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.7N 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.4N 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.0N 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.5N 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 178.1W.
11AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z
IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 47 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 111435
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Fri Aug 11 2023

Hurricane Dora maintained a small eye through most of the night,
but it has since mostly filled in. Infrared satellite shows the
southwest sector of the cyclone degrading as it is slowly moving
into an area of higher southerly shear. Dvorak current intensity
estimates of 5.5 from PHFO and SAB correlates with a maximum
estimated wind speed of 102 kt, with no change since the previous
advisory. CIMSS ADT was 97 kt and AiDT was 89 kt just after 1200
UTC. The initial intensity of Dora has been decreased slightly to
100 kt to account for the satellite appearance.

The initial motion for this advisory is 290/17kt. Dora continues to
move toward the west-northwest along the southwest flank of a deep
high pressure system. This general motion will continue through the
next 24 hours, with the forecast track following a tightly clustered
guidance envelope. The forward motion of Dora will gradually slow
down and turn more northwesterly through the next several days as
it approaches a weakness in the ridge aloft produced by an upper
level trough to the northwest. The forecast track has been adjusted
slightly north of the previous forecast after 24 hours, then a bit
more northeast after 60 hours to keep closer in line with model
consensus TVCE.

The intensity forecast for Dora shows a gradual decrease in maximum
winds through the next 36 hours, then a slightly faster decrease
through 5 days when it becomes post-tropical. The SHIPS guidance
shows a sharp increase in vertical wind shear after 24 hours. The
intensity guidance shows considerable spread during this time of
steady weakening, with the ECMWF weakening quickly and the GFS
holding onto the intensity through the next 5 days. Official
forecast represents a blend of the two forecast trends.

Dora is expected to move into the western Pacific as a typhoon
later today. This will make Dora only the second tropical cyclone
on record to reach/maintain hurricane strength in the eastern,
central and western Pacific. Although Dora of 1999 almost completed
this feat, the only other tropical cyclone known to do this was
Hurricane John in 1994.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 14.5N 178.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 15.7N 180.0E 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 16.9N 177.5E 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.8N 175.2E 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 18.3N 173.0E 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 18.7N 171.1E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 19.4N 169.4E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 21.0N 167.2E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 23.5N 166.2E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Foster/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 111434
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Fri Aug 11 2023

...DORA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DATE
LINE THIS AFTERNOON...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 178.1W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Wake Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 178.1 West. Dora is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). This motion is
expected to gradually slow down and shift more northwesterly over
the next several days. On the forecast track, Dora will cross the
date line into the west Pacific basin in about 12 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next
24 hours, followed by a more rapid weakening beyond 36 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Foster

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 111431
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
1500 UTC FRI AUG 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 178.1W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 178.1W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 177.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.7N 180.0E
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.9N 177.5E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 5SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.8N 175.2E
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 5SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.3N 173.0E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 25NE 10SE 5SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.7N 171.1E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.4N 169.4E
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
34 KT... 50NE 15SE 5SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 21.0N 167.2E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 23.5N 166.2E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 178.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FOSTER/BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 111000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 175.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 175.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.8N 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.1N 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.1N 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.8N 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.1N 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.6N 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.7N 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.4N 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 176.5W.
11AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z
IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 110834
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 10 2023

Hurricane Dora continues to maintain a small eye this evening,
similar to much of the day. All fix agencies agreed with a current
intensity of 5.5 correlating with a maximum estimated wind speed
of 102 kt. CIMSS ADT was 110 kt and AiDT was 103 kt just
after 0600 UTC. Given the steady appearance, the initial intensity
of Dora has been held at 105 kt for this advisory, which represents
a blend of the inputs.

The initial motion for this advisory is 285/17kt. Dora continues
to move toward the west-northwest along the southwest flank of deep
high pressure system. This general motion will continue through the
next 24 hours, with the forecast track following a tightly
clustered guidance envelope. The forward motion of Dora will
gradually slow down and turn more northwesterly through the next
several days as it approaches a weakness in the ridge aloft
produced by an upper level trough to the northwest. Guidance spread
increases slowly from 24 to 60 hours, then significantly from 72
hours onward, likely due to differences in the depth of the cyclone
and the strength of the upper level trough to the northwest. The
forecast track lies close to middle of the guidance envelope and
has been changed little since the last package.

Dora continues to exceed expectations regarding intensity, due to
its small size and an environment of light vertical wind shear and
relatively warm water of around 28C. Given this history, the
forecast holds Dora steady through the next 12 hours and remains
near the higher side of the guidance envelope in showing only slow
weakening through 36 hours. At 36 hours and beyond, the SHIPS
guidance shows a sharp increase in vertical wind shear. The
intensity guidance shows considerable spread during this time of
steady weakening, with the statistical guidance showing a slower
rate of weakening compared to much of the dynamical models. Offical
forecast represents a blend of the two forecast trends.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 13.7N 176.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.8N 178.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 16.1N 178.9E 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 17.1N 176.5E 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 17.8N 174.3E 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 18.1N 172.2E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 18.6N 170.2E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 19.7N 167.2E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 21.4N 165.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Foster/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 110833
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 10 2023

...DORA MAINTAINING INTENSITY TONIGHT AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 176.3W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Wake Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 176.3 West. Dora is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). This motion is
expected to gradually slow down and shift more northwesterly over
the next several days. On the forecast track, Dora will cross the
date line into the west Pacific basin in about 18 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next
24 hours, followed by a more rapid weakening beyond 36 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Foster

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 110833
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
0900 UTC FRI AUG 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 176.3W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 176.3W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 175.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.8N 178.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.1N 178.9E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.1N 176.5E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 174.3E
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 172.2E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.6N 170.2E
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 19.7N 167.2E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 21.4N 165.5E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 176.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FOSTER

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 173.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 173.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.1N 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.4N 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.6N 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.5N 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.9N 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.2N 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.3N 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.2N 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 174.8W.
11AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111000Z,
111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 110237
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Thu Aug 10 2023

Dora has maintained a well-defined eye today, overcoming what
appears to be slightly restricted outflow aloft within its eastern
quadrant at times. The satellite presentation has changed little
through the day, and all fix agencies gave a FT and current
intensity of 5.5/102 kt, while CIMSS ADT rose to 107 kt just after
0000 UTC. Given the steady appearance, the initial intensity of Dora
has been held at 105 kt for this advisory, which represents a blend
of the inputs.

The initial motion for this advisory is 290/17 kt. Dora continues
to move toward the west-northwest along the southwest flank of deep
high pressure to the north-northeast. This general motion will
continue through the next 24 to 36 hours, with the forecast track
following a tightly clustered guidance envelope. The forward motion
of Dora will slow between 36 and 60 hours as the hurricane
approaches a weakness in the ridge aloft produced by an upper level
trough to the northwest. From 72 to 96 hours, Dora is forecast to
remain on a similar slow west-northwest to track, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest at 120 hours. Guidance spread increases
slowly from 36 to 60 hours, then significantly from 72 hours
onward, likely due to differences in the depth of the cyclone and
the strength of the upper level trough to the northwest. The
forecast track lies close to the TVCN near the middle of the
guidance envelope and has been changed little since the last
package.

Dora continues to exceed expectations regarding intensity, due to
its small size and an environment of light vertical wind shear and
relatively warm water of around 28C. Given this history, the
forecast holds Dora steady through the next 12 hours and remains
near the higher side of the guidance envelope in showing only slow
weakening through 36 hours. At 36 hours and beyond, the SHIPS
guidance shows a sharp increase in vertical wind shear, and steady
weakening is expected. The intensity guidance shows considerable
spread during this time of steady weakening, with the statistical
guidance showing a slower rate of weakening compared to much of the
dynamical models. The forecast closely follows the ICON from 36 to
96 hours and weakens Dora slightly more aggressively than the
consensus at 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 13.2N 174.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.1N 176.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.4N 179.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 16.6N 177.8E 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 17.5N 175.5E 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 17.9N 173.4E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.2N 171.3E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 19.3N 167.7E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 21.2N 166.1E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 110235
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Thu Aug 10 2023

...DORA MAINTAINING INTENSITY AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 174.6W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Wake Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 174.6 West. Dora is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue for the next day, followed by a slowing of the
forward motion during the following two days. On the forecast track,
Dora will cross the date line into the west Pacific basin in about
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next
24 hours, followed by a more rapid weakening beyond 36 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora will produce large and
life-threatening surf on Johnston Island today. Surf will decline
tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 110235
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
0300 UTC FRI AUG 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 174.6W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 174.6W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 173.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.1N 176.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.4N 179.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.6N 177.8E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.5N 175.5E
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.9N 173.4E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.2N 171.3E
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 19.3N 167.7E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 21.2N 166.1E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 174.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 042
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 172.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 172.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.6N 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.9N 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.2N 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.2N 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.4N 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.7N 167.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.9N 164.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 173.3W.
10AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110400Z,
111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (EUGENE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 102050
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 10 2023

After weakening overnight, a well-defined eye of Hurricane Dora
briefly reemerged around and just after agencies conducted Dvorak
fixes. HFO, JTWC, and SAB all found a current intensity of 5.5/102
kt, but given the recent slight improvement in satellite
presentation, the initial intensity was held at 105 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 285/17 kt. The forecast
track remains in the middle of a tightly clustered guidance envelope
through the next two days. During this time, Dora will move toward
the west-northwest and gradually slow its forward motion, as it
travels along the southwest flank of the subtropical high far to
the north. Guidance spread increases beyond 48 hours, when Dora
will approach the end of the ridge and loses more speed of forward
motion. The official track was altered little from the prior
package and is within the middle of the guidance envelope near the
TVCN.

With relatively warm water of 28-29C and light vertical wind shear,
only slow weakening is forecast through the next 24 hours,
especially given Dora's history of exceeding intensity predictions.
At about 36 hours and beyond, the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS show a steady
increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, and steady weakening
is expected. The intensity guidance shows considerable spread
during this time of steady weakening, and the forecast closely
follows the consensus through 72 hours and remains slightly more
aggressive than the consensus beyond.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 12.7N 173.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 13.6N 175.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 14.9N 178.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 16.2N 178.8E 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 17.2N 176.5E 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 17.9N 174.0E 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 18.4N 171.8E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 19.6N 167.8E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 21.9N 164.6E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 102042
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 10 2023

...DORA MAINTAINING INTENSITY AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 173.0W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Wake Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 173.0 West. Dora is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). Dora is expected to
continue moving towards the west-northwest over the next several
days. On the forecast track, Dora will cross the date line into the
west Pacific basin on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next
24 hours, followed by a more rapid weakening beyond 36 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora will produce large and
life-threatening surf on Johnston Island today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 102038
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
2100 UTC THU AUG 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 173.0W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 173.0W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 172.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.6N 175.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 178.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.2N 178.8E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.2N 176.5E
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.9N 174.0E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.4N 171.8E
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 19.6N 167.8E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 21.9N 164.6E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 173.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 101434
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 10 2023

Infrared satellite early this morning shows Hurricane Dora
continuing to weaken since the annular structure of the cyclone
diminished yesterday. Dvorak intensity estimates indicate a DT of
5.0
with a CI of 6.5. ADT and AiDT indicate a current intensity of
4.9/102 kt and 89 kt respectively. Dora is given an initial
intensity of 105 kt for this advisory, a category 3 tropical
cyclone. Dora has weakened 15 kt from the last advisory based on
a change in storm structure allowing for the ingestion of drier
air.

Initial motion with this advisory is 275/18 kt, only a slight
decrease in forward speed. The track guidance remains tight through
the next 36 hours, then spreads out after this point, particularly
after 72 hours. Shifted the forecast track to the north of previous
track and slowed it down, nudging toward the model consensus TVCE.
Slow and recent increase in latitude indicates that Dora is reaching
the southwest flank of the subtropical high to far to the north.
Dora is forecast to continue gaining latitude and assume a
northwest motion later today into Friday, becoming more northerly
after Dora passes west of the date line late Friday into the
weekend.

Warm water, with temperatures of 28 degrees C or above, lies along
the entire forecast track and shear will remain less than 20 kt
through tau 36. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF SHIPS shows a gradual
weakening in intensity over the next 48 hours, then a more dramatic
decrease after 48 hours as Dora gains latitude and shear increases.
The updated forecast closely follows this guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 12.3N 171.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 13.0N 173.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 14.2N 176.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.6N 179.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 16.7N 177.7E 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 17.7N 175.2E 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 18.2N 172.8E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 19.1N 168.5E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 20.9N 164.6E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Foster/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 101432
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 10 2023

...DORA MOVING WESTWARD AND WEAKENS A BIT MORE...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 171.5W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Wake Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 171.5 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). Dora is expected to gradually
slow down and turn towards the west-northwest over the next several
days. On the forecast track, Dora will cross the date line into the
west Pacific basin on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours followed by faster weakening beyond 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora will produce large and
life-threatening surf on Johnston Island today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Foster/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 101432
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
1500 UTC THU AUG 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 171.5W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 171.5W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 170.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.0N 173.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 5SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.2N 176.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.6N 179.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.7N 177.7E
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.7N 175.2E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.2N 172.8E
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 19.1N 168.5E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 20.9N 164.6E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 171.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FOSTER/BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTRALPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 168.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 168.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.6N 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.7N 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.9N 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.1N 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.9N 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.4N 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.3N 168.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.0N 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 170.1W.
10AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH
OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 950 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 60 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 100851
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 09 2023

Infrared satellite this evening shows the eye of Hurricane Dora has
filled in since this afternoon. The annular structure has broken
down with a banding feature setting up along the northeast
periphery. Dvorak intensity estimates indicate a DT of 5.5 with a CI
of 6.5, a decrease from earlier this afternoon and ADT and AiDT
show 5.7/122 kt and 111 kt respectively. With a slight weakening off
the peak intensity earlier today, Dora is given an initial intensity
of 120 kt for this advisory, keeping it as a solid category 4
tropical cyclone.

Initial motion with this advisory is 275/19 kt, unchanged from the
last three advisories. The track guidance remains remarkably tight
through the next 48 hours becoming spread out after this point,
particularly after 96 hours. Models indicate a slight decrease in
forward motion from previous forecasts, and the updated official
forecast has been nudged toward the model consensus TVCE. The
larger synoptic environment around Dora remains unchanged. Strong
ridging north of Dora, and the westward migration of this ridging,
accounts for this system's prolonged westward movement. However, the
slow and recent increase in latitude indicates that Dora is reaching
the southwest flank of this ridging. Dora is forecast to continue
gaining latitude and assume a northwest motion Thursday and Friday,
becoming more northerly after Dora passes west of the date line
late in the day Friday into the weekend.

Warm water, with temperatures of 28 degrees C or above, lies along
the entire forecast track and shear will remain less than 20 kt
through tau 48. The 06Z GFS and ECMWF SHIPS shows a slight
weakening in intensity over the next 48 hours, then a more dramatic
decrease after 60 hours as Dora gains latitude and shear increases.
The updated forecast closely follows this guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 12.1N 169.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 12.6N 172.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 13.7N 175.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 14.9N 178.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 16.1N 178.2E 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 16.9N 175.5E 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 17.4N 173.1E 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 18.3N 168.3E 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 20.0N 164.0E 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Foster/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 100836
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 09 2023

...DORA MOVING WESTWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 169.8W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Wake Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 169.8 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to
gradually slow down and turn towards the west-northwest over the
next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast over the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora will produce large and
life-threatening surf on Johnston Island through Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Foster/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 100835
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
0900 UTC THU AUG 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 169.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 169.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 168.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 12.6N 172.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.7N 175.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 178.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.1N 178.2E
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.9N 175.5E
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 5SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.4N 173.1E
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 15SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 18.3N 168.3E
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 20.0N 164.0E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 169.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FOSTER/BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 100410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.08.2023

HURRICANE DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 166.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.08.2023 0 11.4N 166.5W 946 96
1200UTC 10.08.2023 12 12.0N 169.9W 964 85
0000UTC 11.08.2023 24 13.1N 173.3W 971 75
1200UTC 11.08.2023 36 14.4N 176.4W 977 72
0000UTC 12.08.2023 48 15.7N 179.1W 982 68
1200UTC 12.08.2023 60 16.7N 178.3E 993 59
0000UTC 13.08.2023 72 17.4N 175.5E 1001 45
1200UTC 13.08.2023 84 17.7N 172.8E 1005 40
0000UTC 14.08.2023 96 18.1N 170.2E 1006 34
1200UTC 14.08.2023 108 19.0N 167.9E 1007 34
0000UTC 15.08.2023 120 20.5N 166.4E 1008 30
1200UTC 15.08.2023 132 22.0N 165.5E 1008 27
0000UTC 16.08.2023 144 23.8N 165.5E 1007 26
1200UTC 16.08.2023 156 25.0N 166.1E 1007 26
0000UTC 17.08.2023 168 26.6N 167.4E 1006 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 24.6N 89.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2023 108 25.3N 91.0W 1010 31
0000UTC 15.08.2023 120 25.8N 93.8W 1008 29
1200UTC 15.08.2023 132 26.8N 96.6W 1009 32
0000UTC 16.08.2023 144 CEASED TRACKING

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100410

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 100410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.08.2023

HURRICANE DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 166.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.08.2023 11.4N 166.5W INTENSE
12UTC 10.08.2023 12.0N 169.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.08.2023 13.1N 173.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2023 14.4N 176.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2023 15.7N 179.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2023 16.7N 178.3E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2023 17.4N 175.5E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2023 17.7N 172.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2023 18.1N 170.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2023 19.0N 167.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2023 20.5N 166.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2023 22.0N 165.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2023 23.8N 165.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2023 25.0N 166.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2023 26.6N 167.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 24.6N 89.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.08.2023 25.3N 91.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2023 25.8N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2023 26.8N 96.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100410

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 039
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 11.6N 166.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 166.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.0N 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 13.1N 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.4N 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.3N 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.1N 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.8N 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.1N 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.7N 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 168.2W.
10AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 10000Z IS 946 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z,
101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (EUGENE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 100245
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 09 2023

Dora has begun to slowly gain latitude this afternoon, as forecast,
but has strengthened once again within a low-shear and marginally
warm sea surface temperature environment. Satellite presentation
has improved from late this morning, with a clearly defined 8 nm
wide eye and a symmetrical central structure. The central dense
overcast feature around the core is less than 100 nm wide, giving
Dora an increasingly annular appearance. This intense but compact
system is only about 240 nm wide from north to south, including all
banding features. All three fix agencies derived subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates of 6.5, corresponding to 127 kt. Latest UW-CIMSS
ADT is 122 kt. Given these derived intensity values, Dora is given
an initial intensity of 125 kt for this advisory, keeping her as a
solid category 4 tropical cyclone.

Initial motion with this advisory is 275/19 kt, unchanged from the
last two advisories. Like before, track guidance remains remarkably
tight through tau 72, with spread only becoming significant at tau
96 and beyond, long after this system has passed out of the basin
into the western North Pacific. The larger synoptic environment
around Dora remains unchanged. Strong ridging north of Dora, and
the westward migration of this ridging, accounts for this system's
prolonged westward movement. However, the slow and recent increase
in latitude indicates that Dora is reaching the southwest flank of
this ridging. Dora is forecast to continue gaining latitude and
assume a northwest motion Thursday and Friday. The forecast track,
closely following the previous track and TVCN model consensus,
continues to become more northerly after Dora passes west of the
date line.

Warm water, with temperatures of 28 degrees C or above, lies along
the entire forecast track and shear will remain less than 20 kt
through tau 60. With 00Z ECMWF SHIPS showing almost no Dora
intensity drop through tau 24, this advisory will only slowly
weaken this system through tau 36, with more pronounced weakening
introduced afterwards as Dora gains latitude and shear increases.
The 00Z GFS SHIPS shows a similar slow weakening trend through tau
24, with more rapid weakening afterwards. As before, both SHIPS
versions keep Dora stronger at all tau than most intensity model
guidance. However, given that Dora insists on strengthening within
the environment it is in, forecasting a slower weakening trend, at
least initially, seems reasonable. Dora will eventually weaken to a
post-tropical/remnant low, but after tau 120.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 11.8N 167.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 12.0N 170.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 13.1N 174.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 14.4N 177.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.3N 179.1E 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 16.1N 176.2E 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 16.8N 173.2E 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 18.1N 168.0E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 20.7N 164.2E 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 100247
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 09 2023

...DORA MOVING WESTWARD AND BEGINNING TO PASS FAR SOUTH OF JOHNSTON
ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 167.9W
ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 167.9 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue and swing toward the west-northwest over the next few days,

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast over the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 120 miles
(195 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora are currently impacting Johnston
Island or expected very soon and will likely produce large and
life-threatening surf there through Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 100246
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
0300 UTC THU AUG 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 167.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 35SE 35SW 55NW.
34 KT.......105NE 55SE 55SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE 150SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 167.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 166.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 12.0N 170.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.1N 174.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.4N 177.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.3N 179.1E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.1N 176.2E
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 25SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.8N 173.2E
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 5SE 5SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 25SE 25SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 18.1N 168.0E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 20.7N 164.2E
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 167.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 11.5N 165.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 165.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.0N 168.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.8N 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.7N 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.8N 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.7N 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.5N 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.7N 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.1N 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 166.4W.
09AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404 NM
SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100400Z,
101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (EUGENE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 092046
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 09 2023

Dora continues to track westward across the central North Pacific,
unscathed by shear and sustained by marginally warm ocean water.
Satellite presentation includes a clearly-defined eye and a
symmetrical central structure. While the periphery is a bit ragged
in appearance, there is little or no evidence of shear effects.
Surrounding dry air has not been entrained sufficiently to erode
the core. Dora is very slowly gaining latitude but will pass far
south of Johnston Island later today. All three fix agencies have
derived subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 6.0, corresponding
to 115 kt. Latest UW-CIMSS ADT intensity is also 115 kt. Given the
overall unchanged appearance of Dora over the past six hours, the
obvious move is to assign her an initial intensity of 115 kt.

Initial motion with this advisory is 275/19 kt, unchanged from the
last advisory. Track guidance remains remarkably tight through tau
72, with spread only becoming significant at tau 96 and tau 120,
long after this system has passed out of the basin into the western
North Pacific. Strong ridging north of Dora, and the westward
migration of this ridging, accounts for this system's prolonged
westward movement. However, the slow and rather recent increase in
latitude indicates that Dora is reaching the southwest periphery of
this ridging and is poised to begin a track to the west northwest.
This track swing will continue as Dora is forecast to assume a
northwest motion Thursday and Friday. The forecast track, closely
following the previous track and TVCN model consensus, continues to
become more northerly after Dora passes west of the date line.

Warm water, with temperatures of 28 degrees C or above, lies along
the entire forecast track and shear will be minimal through tau 72.
With 18Z ECMWF SHIPS showing almost no Dora intensity drop through
tau 36, this advisory will only slowly weaken this system through
tau 60, with more pronounced weakening introduced afterwards as
Dora gains latitude and shear increases. The 18Z GFS SHIPS shows a
similar slow weakening trend, but through tau 24. Both SHIPS
versions keep Dora stronger at all tau than most intensity model
guidance, but Dora's demonstrated resilience increases confidence
that a slower weakening trend, at least initially, is reasonable.
Dora will eventually weaken to a post-tropical/remnant low, but
just after tau 120.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 11.6N 166.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 12.0N 168.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 12.8N 172.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 13.7N 175.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 14.8N 178.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 15.7N 178.5E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.5N 175.9E 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.7N 171.1E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 19.1N 167.1E 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 092047
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 09 2023

...WESTWARD-MOVING DORA TO PASS FAR SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER
TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 166.0W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 166.0 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through today before gradually turning west-northwestward
over the next day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Very slow weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora are expected to impact Johnston
Island late today, likely producing large and life-threatening surf
through Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 092046
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
2100 UTC WED AUG 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 166.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE 150SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 166.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 165.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.0N 168.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 12.8N 172.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.7N 175.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.8N 178.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.7N 178.5E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 25SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.5N 175.9E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 5SE 5SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 25SE 25SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.7N 171.1E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 19.1N 167.1E
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 166.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 091600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 11.4N 163.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 163.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 11.8N 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.6N 170.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 13.4N 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.5N 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.6N 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.5N 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.7N 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.9N 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 164.4W. 09AUG23.
HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80912Z IS 953 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 091436
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 09 2023

Dora is on track to pass far south of Johnston Island later today,
with large surf lasting through Thursday. Compact and powerful Dora
continues to have a well-defined eye with a ring of persistant and
symmetrical convection overnight. Satellite animation shows Dora has
started to move slightly north of west over the last few hours.
Subjective Dvorak estimates of 6.0 from PHFO and 5.5 from both SAB
and JTWC, and the CIMSS objective estimates between 104 and 112 kt,
show that Dora has changed little overnight. More recent satellite
images show the system developing colder cloud tops suggesting that
Dora has gone through some minor fluctuations and remains around
115 kt, thus have held the intensity.

The initial motion with this advisory is 275/19 kt. Model guidance
remains closely clustered through the remaining time Dora will be
exploring the central Pacific. Dora continues to move to the west,
along the southern edge of a strong ridge to the north. The westward
track will become west-northwestward later today as it moves along
the southwestern edge of the ridge, and turn to the northwest
Thursday as it approaches the date line. There remains more
variability in the track and speed as the tropical cyclone enters
the western Pacific basin on Friday. The forecast track remains
closely aligned with the previous advisory, and largely follows
the TVCN model consensus.

The environmental conditions surrounding, and immediately ahead of
Dora continue to be favorable, with the system moving into slightly
warmer waters today with neglible shear. Combined with little change
in intensity over the last 24 hours, and the 06Z ECMWF SHIPS having
indicated a steady state through 11/06Z, have held the intensity
higher than the previous advisory for the first 24 hours.
Southwesterly deep layer shear will increase around hour 48, which
despite moving over even warmer waters at the time, is likely to
contribute to a weakening trend. The shear is expected to increase
as the system moves across the date line on Friday. The
forecast intensity keeps it a little higher than most of the models
in the short term, and leans towards the LGEM guidance for the
later periods.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 11.4N 164.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 11.8N 166.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 12.6N 170.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 13.4N 174.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 14.5N 177.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 15.6N 180.0E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.5N 177.2E 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 17.7N 172.3E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 18.9N 167.9E 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 091432
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 09 2023

...DORA TO PASS FAR SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 164.0W
ABOUT 795 MI...1275 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 164.0 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue, with a gradual turn to the west-northwest over the
next day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora are expected to begin impacting
Johnston Island late today, likely producing large and
life-threatening surf through Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 091431
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
1500 UTC WED AUG 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 164.0W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE 150SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 164.0W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 163.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.8N 166.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 12.6N 170.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.4N 174.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.5N 177.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.6N 180.0E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 25SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 177.2E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 5SE 5SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 25SE 25SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 17.7N 172.3E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 167.9E
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 164.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD/JELSEMA

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 11.4N 161.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 161.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 11.7N 165.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.3N 168.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.1N 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.1N 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.2N 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.3N 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.8N 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.2N 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091000Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 162.5W. 09AUG23.
HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
578 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 953 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091600Z, 092200Z, 100400Z AND 101000Z.
//
NNNN
0000008700
140
NCNC01 EGRR 090900
03047 00050 555 00131 10083 29999 40150 50143 60/00=
0000009700
141
NCNC01 EGRR 090900 CCA
03930 00077 10110 555 00183 10100 20004 40176 50163 6///0=

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 090835
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 08 2023

Dora continues to be a compact and powerful hurricane on a rapid
westward track across the central Pacific. The system continues to
exhibit annular characteristics on satellite with its
compact size, well-defined eye, and its persistent and symmetric
ring of deep convection. The eye at times has appeared to become a
little cloud filled, but then quickly clears out again. The latest
subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and PHFO were 6.0 and SAB was
5.5. Objective estimates from CIMSS are between 110 and 115 kt.
The initial intensity has been held at 115 kt with this
advisory.

The initial motion intensity for this advisory is 270/20 kt. Model
guidance remains tightly clustered through the remaining time Dora
will be in the central Pacific basin, with more variability noted as
the system exits the central Pacific around hour 60. The forecast
track remains closely aligned with the previous advisory and follows
closely the TVCN model consensus. This maintains a westward track
for another day, and then turns to the west-northwest as it begins
to round the southwest edge of the ridge to the north. On this
track, the system will pass far south of Johnston Island Wednesday
night. The system then turns to the northwest as it moves into the
western Pacific basin Friday.

The intensity forecast continues to be the more challenging aspect
of Dora's future. The environmental conditions remain conducive for
Dora to remain a strong tropical cyclone over the next couple of
days, with little vertical wind shear and sufficiently warm
SSTs/OHC. There is good agreement that Dora will be moving over
slightly warmer waters and increased ocean heat content in about 24
hours as the cyclone starts to move to the west-northwest. While
these warmer waters could contribute to maintaining, or even
strengthening of the cyclone, southwesterly deep layer shear is
expected to begin to increase shortly thereafter, as Dora rounds the
ridge to the north. The shear is expected to increase as Dora
approaches the date line Friday. The latest ECMWF SHIPS guidance
maintains the 115 kt intensity for the next 36 hours while other
guidance slowly weakens the system. With little change expected with
Dora's immediate environment for the next day, and the ECMWF holding
it higher, have held the intensity a touch higher than the previous
forecast for the first 48 hours. The forecast then follows the
weakening in the guidance as was reflected in the previous advisory.
This update to the intensity places it on the high end of the model
consensus in the short term, and leans towards the LGEM guidance for
the later periods.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 11.4N 162.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 11.7N 165.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 12.3N 168.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 13.1N 172.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 14.1N 175.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 15.2N 179.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 16.3N 178.0E 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 17.8N 172.3E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 19.2N 167.3E 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 090832
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 08 2023

...POWERFUL DORA CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD PATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 162.1W
ABOUT 740 MI...1185 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 162.1 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to
to continue, with a gradual turn to the west-northwest over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora are expected to begin impacting
Johnston Island late Wednesday, likely producing large and
life-threatening surf through Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 090831
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
0900 UTC WED AUG 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 162.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE 150SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 162.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 161.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 11.7N 165.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.3N 168.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.1N 172.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.1N 175.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.2N 179.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 25SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.3N 178.0E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 5SE 5SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 25SE 25SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 172.3E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 19.2N 167.3E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 162.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD/JELSEMA

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 11.4N 159.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 159.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 11.6N 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.0N 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.7N 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 13.5N 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.6N 177.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.8N 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.5N 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.9N 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 160.5W.
09AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 953
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 090239
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Tue Aug 08 2023

Dora remains a powerful but small hurricane this afternoon, with a
persistent and relatively symmetric ring of deep convection
surrounding the eye. With a lack of discrete rain bands, a
well-defined eye, and a resistance to intensity change, Dora has
displayed characteristics of an annular hurricane. At fix time,
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 5.5 from both PHFO and SAB,
while objective Dvorak ADT shows a value of 5.8. Cold cloud tops
have wrapped around the convection this afternoon and little overall
change in appearance over the last 24 hours supports keeping the
intensity at 115 kt.

The initial motion vector for this advisory is 265/20 kt, as Dora
continues on its rapid westward track across the basin. A deep-layer
ridge moving westward in tandem with Dora had been supporting this
motion, and will generally continue to do so for the next day.
Despite the recent (somewhat unusual) south of west motion,
the forecast track anticipates that Dora will gradually gain
latitude as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The
updated track forecast is nudged slightly southward from the
previous forecast, closer model consensus. On the forecast track,
Dora will pass well south of Johnston Island Wednesday night, and
into the western Pacific basin on Friday.

Environmental conditions along the forecast track remain conducive
for maintaining a strong tropical cyclone over the next couple of
days, with relatively low vertical wind shear and sufficiently high
SSTs/OHC. Little change in intensity is indicated in the updated
forecast until the later forecast periods, when increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear may lead to a fairly rapid demise
of the small cyclone's core. The updated intensity forecast lies
close to the IVCN consensus, with LGEM guidance influencing the
forecast in the later periods.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 11.4N 160.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 11.6N 163.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 12.0N 166.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 12.7N 170.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 13.5N 173.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 14.6N 177.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 15.8N 179.9E 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 17.5N 174.0E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 18.9N 168.6E 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Foster/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 090238
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Tue Aug 08 2023

...DORA MAINTAINS CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH PASSING FAR SOUTH OF
KAUAI...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 160.1W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 160.1 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue with a gradual slow down and turn toward the
west-northwest over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora are expected to begin impacting
Johnston Island late Wednesday, likely producing large and
life-threatening surf through Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Foster/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 090238
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
0300 UTC WED AUG 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 160.1W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 180SE 150SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 160.1W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 159.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 11.6N 163.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.0N 166.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 12.7N 170.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 25SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.5N 173.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.6N 177.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 25SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.8N 179.9E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 5SE 5SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 25SE 25SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 17.5N 174.0E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 18.9N 168.6E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 160.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FOSTER/BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 11.5N 157.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 157.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 11.6N 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.0N 164.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.5N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.3N 172.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.3N 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.5N 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.6N 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.0N 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082200Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 158.4W.
08AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTH
OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 953 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 082055
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 08 2023

Dora remains a powerful but small hurricane this morning, with a
persistent and relatively symmetric ring of deep convection
surrounding an eye that has recently become somewhat cloud-filled.
With a lack of discrete rain bands, a well-defined eye, and a
resistance to intensity change, Dora has displayed characteristics
of an annular hurricane for at least the last day or so, despite an
AHI (Annular Hurricane Index) score of zero this morning.
Regardless, utilizing subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates
of 6.0/115 kt, a 1618Z RCM-2 SAR pass, and 1431Z and 1436Z
microwave intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS' D-MINT, the initial
intensity is estimated to be 115 kt.

The initial motion vector for this advisory is 270/19 kt, as Dora
continues on its rapid westward track across the basin. A deep-layer
ridge moving westward in tandem with Dora had been supporting this
motion, and will generally continue to do so for the next day or
two. Despite the recent (somewhat unusual) south of west motion,
the forecast track anticipates that Dora will gradually gain
latitude as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The
updated track forecast is nudged slightly northward from the
previous forecast, closer to the well-performing HAFS-A and TVCE
guidance. On the forecast track, Dora will pass well south of
Johnston Island Wednesday night, and into the western Pacific basin
on Friday.

Environmental conditions along the forecast track remain conducive
for maintaining a strong tropical cyclone over the next couple of
days, with relatively low vertical wind shear and sufficiently high
SSTs/OHC. Little change in intensity is indicated in the updated
forecast until the later forecast periods, when increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear may lead to a fairly rapid demise
of the small cyclone's core. The updated intensity forecast lies
close to the IVCN consensus, with LGEM guidance influencing the
forecast in the later periods.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 11.5N 158.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 11.6N 161.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 12.0N 164.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 12.5N 168.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 13.3N 172.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 14.3N 175.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 15.5N 178.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 17.6N 175.6E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 19.0N 170.0E 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 082037
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 08 2023

...DORA MAINTAINS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY AS IT PASSES WELL SOUTH OF
HAWAII...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 158.1W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 158.1 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, with a gradual
turn toward the west-northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected over the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora are expected to begin impacting
Johnston Island late Wednesday, likely producing large and
life-threatening surf through Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 082035
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 158.1W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 150SE 150SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 158.1W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 157.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 11.6N 161.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 12.0N 164.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.5N 168.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.3N 172.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.3N 175.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.5N 178.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 17.6N 175.6E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 19.0N 170.0E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 158.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 081611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.08.2023

HURRICANE DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 154.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.08.2023 0 11.4N 154.6W 964 70
0000UTC 09.08.2023 12 11.7N 158.2W 971 64
1200UTC 09.08.2023 24 12.1N 162.5W 980 65
0000UTC 10.08.2023 36 12.2N 166.6W 981 66
1200UTC 10.08.2023 48 12.6N 170.3W 984 64
0000UTC 11.08.2023 60 13.3N 174.0W 988 59
1200UTC 11.08.2023 72 13.9N 177.4W 997 50
0000UTC 12.08.2023 84 14.7N 179.2E 1003 42
1200UTC 12.08.2023 96 15.6N 175.9E 1006 36
0000UTC 13.08.2023 108 16.6N 172.7E 1007 33
1200UTC 13.08.2023 120 17.4N 169.8E 1008 29
0000UTC 14.08.2023 132 18.3N 167.5E 1009 28
1200UTC 14.08.2023 144 19.4N 165.7E 1009 27
0000UTC 15.08.2023 156 20.9N 164.7E 1009 24
1200UTC 15.08.2023 168 22.2N 163.9E 1009 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 38.3N 71.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.08.2023 72 39.0N 68.6W 1002 38
0000UTC 12.08.2023 84 41.9N 62.6W 1003 28
1200UTC 12.08.2023 96 45.8N 53.8W 1001 29
0000UTC 13.08.2023 108 49.5N 47.6W 996 32
1200UTC 13.08.2023 120 51.7N 42.6W 994 36
0000UTC 14.08.2023 132 52.3N 38.7W 996 30
1200UTC 14.08.2023 144 52.1N 35.2W 997 27
0000UTC 15.08.2023 156 51.6N 31.6W 999 27
1200UTC 15.08.2023 168 50.6N 28.3W 1003 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 36.7N 73.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2023 96 36.7N 73.0W 1011 27
0000UTC 13.08.2023 108 38.4N 68.5W 1011 30
1200UTC 13.08.2023 120 40.9N 62.9W 1012 29
0000UTC 14.08.2023 132 42.5N 59.3W 1012 25
1200UTC 14.08.2023 144 43.6N 53.3W 1014 26
0000UTC 15.08.2023 156 CEASED TRACKING

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081611

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 033
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 11.5N 155.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 155.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 11.4N 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 11.5N 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 11.9N 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.5N 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 13.5N 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.7N 177.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.9N 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.5N 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 156.5W. 08AUG23.
HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
492 NM SOUTH OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80812Z IS 953 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082200Z,090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (EUGENE)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC)
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 081433
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 08 2023

Dora remains a powerful hurricane early this morning, with the
tropical cyclone continuing to display annular characteristics. The
eye has cooled slightly since the previous advisory, but it
continues to be surrounded by a very cold dense overcast. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO and SAB were
both 6.0 (115 kt). Meanwhile, the objective Dvorak ADT and AiDT
estimates from UW-CIMSS were both 112 kt. Using a blend of these
data the initial intensity has been held at 115 kt for this
advisory.

Dora is moving slightly south of due west at 19 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple days as a deep
layer ridge builds north of the Hawaiian Islands. A turn to the
west- northwest is forecast beyond day 2 as the tropical cyclone
rounds the southwestern periphery of the deep layer subtropical
ridge north of Hawaii. On this forecast track, Dora is expected to
move into the western Pacific basin Friday. The official forecast
track is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and closely
aligns with a blend of the consensus and reliable dynamical
guidance.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track of Dora appear
conducive for maintaining a very intense tropical cyclone during the
next several days, with the only potential negative factor being the
surrounding dry mid-level air. Given the persistent annular
appearance of Dora during the past several days, the dry mid-level
air will likely have a difficult time being entrained into the
system. Vertical wind shear will remain low during the next 3 days,
before increasing considerably by days 4 and 5. Meanwhile sea
surface temperatures will change little during the next 24 hours,
remaining around 27C. Beyond 24 hours however, the SSTs will
gradually increase into the 28/29C range, with ocean heat content
values rising beyond 36 hours as well. The official intensity
forecast shows a slow and gradual decrease during the next 24 hours,
with the intensity then held steady through 60 hours. There is the
potential that Dora could re-intensify in the 36 through 60 hour
time frame due to the increase in SSTs and OHC, however this is not
shown in the intensity forecast. By day 3, vertical wind shear
should begin to impact the tropical cyclone, with a more drastic
decline in intensity expected for days 4 and 5 as shear begins to
overwhelm Dora. This forecast is weighted heavily toward the
intensity consensus guidance through day 3, then trends toward a
blend of the consensus and dynamical guidance for days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 11.5N 156.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 11.4N 159.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 11.5N 163.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 11.9N 166.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 12.5N 170.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 13.5N 173.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 14.7N 177.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 16.9N 177.0E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 18.5N 171.5E 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 081431
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 08 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY WESTWARD FAR TO
THE SOUTH OF HAWAII...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 156.1W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 156.1 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue during the next couple days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora are expected to begin impacting
Johnston island late Wednesday, likely producing large and dangerous
waves through Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 081430
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 156.1W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..650NE 150SE 80SW 425NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 156.1W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 155.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 11.4N 159.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 85NE 45SE 40SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 11.5N 163.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 85NE 40SE 40SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.9N 166.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 85NE 40SE 40SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 12.5N 170.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 35SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.5N 173.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 35SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.7N 177.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 16.9N 177.0E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 18.5N 171.5E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 156.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 032
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 11.8N 153.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 153.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.6N 157.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 11.6N 161.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 11.9N 164.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.5N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.3N 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.5N 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.8N 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.5N 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 154.6W. 08AUG23.
HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
485 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 953 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 081600Z,082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (EUGENE) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN32 PHNC)
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 080843
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 07 2023

The satellite presentation of Dora remains impressive this evening,
with the tropical cyclone continuing to display annular
characteristics. The 15 nautical mile wide eye remains very warm and
surrounded by a very cold dense overcast. Microwave imagery from
earlier this evening showed a well defined eyewall structure in
place as well. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from PHFO and SAB were both 6.0 (115 kt), while the
objective Dvorak ADT and AiDT estimates from UW-CIMSS were 117 kt
each. As a result, the initial intensity has been held at 115 kt for
this advisory.

Dora is moving slightly south of due west at 20 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple days as a deep
layer ridge builds north of the Hawaiian Islands. A turn to the
west- northwest is forecast beyond day 2 as the tropical cyclone
rounds the southwestern periphery of the deep layer subtropical
ridge north of Hawaii. On this forecast track, Dora is expected to
move into the western Pacific basin late Friday. The official
forecast track was nudged southward slightly during the next couple
days due to the recent southward jog that Dora has taken and to
bring it in better alignment with the latest consensus guidance.
Beyond 48 hours, the forecast track is virtually identical to the
previous advisory.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track of Dora appear
conducive for maintaining a very intense tropical cyclone during the
next several days, with the only potential negative factor being the
surrounding dry mid-level air around the system. Given the current
annular appearance of Dora, and the fact it has appeared annular for
several days now, the dry mid-level air surrounding the storm will
likely have a difficult time being entrained into the system.
Vertical wind shear will remain low during the next 3 days, before
increasing slightly by day 4, and more substantially by day 5.
Meanwhile sea surface temperatures will change little during the
next 24 to 36 hours, remaining around 27C. Beyond 36 hours, the SSTs
will gradually increase into the 28/29C range, with ocean heat
content values rising considerably from day 2 onward. The official
intensity forecast shows a slow and gradual decrease during the next
24 hours, with the intensity then held steady through day 3. There
is the potential that Dora could strengthen again in the 48 through
72 hour time frame due to the increase in SSTs and OHC. By day 4,
vertical wind shear should begin to impact the tropical cyclone,
with a more drastic decline in intensity expected by day 5 as shear
begins to overwhelm Dora. This forecast is weighted heavily toward
the intensity consensus guidance, which has been performing much
better than the dynamical models over the last couple days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 11.7N 154.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 11.6N 157.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 11.6N 161.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 11.9N 164.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 12.5N 168.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 13.3N 172.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 14.5N 175.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 16.8N 178.4E 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 18.5N 172.6E 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 080836
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 07 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 154.2W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 154.2 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue during the next couple days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradually weakening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora are expected to begin impacting
Johnston island late Wednesday, likely producing large and dangerous
waves through Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 080836
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 154.2W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..525NE 150SE 80SW 425NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 154.2W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 153.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 11.6N 157.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 11.6N 161.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 35NW.
34 KT... 85NE 40SE 40SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 11.9N 164.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 35NW.
34 KT... 85NE 40SE 40SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.5N 168.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.3N 172.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.5N 175.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.8N 178.4E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 18.5N 172.6E
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 154.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 12.1N 151.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 151.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.0N 155.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.0N 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.3N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.8N 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.3N 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.2N 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.3N 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.5N 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 152.6W.
08AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 953 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (EUGENE) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC).
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 080235
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Mon Aug 07 2023

Dora remains on a westward track to pass far south of Hawaii, posing
no direct threat to the islands. Satellite data shows Dora has had
little structural change in the past 12 hours, remaining a compact
and symmetric system. A recent 2317Z AMSR2 pass shows solid deep
convection surrounding the eye. A blend of the latest subjective
Dvorak estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC, combined with the
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS support maintaining Dora at an
initial intensity of 115 kt.

The initial motion vector is 265/20 kt. As has been the case for
several days, the track guidance remains tightly clustered through
day 3 maintaining this general trajectory, with some limited model
spread in the track beyond. The forecast track closely follows the
previous advisory, with westward movement continuing through day 3,
and then a more west-northwest track as Dora approaches the date
line.

The current environment around Dora remains largely unchanged, with
the SST of 27 C and low shear. Little change in the environment
surrounding Dora is expected in the short term, so minor
fluctuations in intensity are still possible. Beyond day 3, as the
system begins to gain latitude, SST values are expected to increase
just a bit (28-29 C). However around the same time, shear is
expected to increase. With the general consensus of the
intensity models showing weakening during this time, it would
appear the shear will be a larger contributing factor to weakening
Dora.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 12.0N 152.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 12.0N 155.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 12.0N 158.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 12.3N 162.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 12.8N 166.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 13.3N 170.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 14.2N 174.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 16.3N 179.5E 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 18.5N 173.5E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 080233
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Mon Aug 07 2023

...POWERFUL DORA MAINTAINS A STEADY WESTWARD PATH...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 152.3W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 152.3 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is forecast during
the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 080231
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 152.3W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 150SE 75SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 152.3W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 151.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.0N 155.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.0N 158.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.3N 162.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.8N 166.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.3N 170.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.2N 174.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.3N 179.5E
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 18.5N 173.5E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 152.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD/BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 149.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 149.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.0N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.0N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.1N 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.5N 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.0N 167.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.7N 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.6N 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.5N 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 150.5W.
07AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 953 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080400Z,081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E
(EUGENE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 072040
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 07 2023

Dora remains far to the southeast of Hawaii this morning. Its
westward track will have it pass far south of Hawaii, posing no
direct threat to the islands. Satellite presentation shows
that Dora has undergone some minor changes in the last several
hours, but remains a compact and symmetric hurricane. The
subjective Dvorak estimates from PHFO, SAT and JTWC all came in at
6.0, and the objective estimates ranged from 110 to 120 kt. These
estimates, combined with a 1644Z SSMI pass showing a closed eye
wall, supports our initial intensity of 115 kt.

The model track guidance remains tightly clustered, particularly
through day 4, continuing high confidence in Dora's expected path.
The forecast track makes little change from the previous advisory
during this time. Beyond day 4, the forecast track has been nudged
a bit south to bring the track closer to the latest guidance. The
forecast track maintains a westward movement for the next several
days, before gaining latitude and then crossing the dateline
between days 4 and 5.

Minor fluctuations in intensity are still expected with Dora for
the next 36 hours or so, with Dora's environment remaining largely
unchanged. Dora is currently over 27 C waters, but is expected to
move over slightly warmer waters (28-29 C) around day 3. Shear in
the immediate area remains negligible in the short term, but on the
projected path, shows signs of increasing around day 4. The bigger
question relates to the amount of dry air that will be ingested into
Dora. At the moment, Dora sits just south of a very dry air mass.
The deterministic GFS and ECMWF models suggest mid level drier air
will be ingested into the system in the coming days, and will
likely contribute to the gradual weakening of Dora.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 12.3N 150.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 12.0N 153.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 12.0N 156.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 12.1N 160.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 13.0N 167.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 13.7N 171.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 15.6N 178.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 17.5N 175.5E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard/M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 072038
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
2100 UTC MON AUG 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 150.2W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 150SE 75SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 150.2W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 149.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.0N 156.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 12.1N 160.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.0N 167.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.7N 171.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 15.6N 178.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 17.5N 175.5E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 150.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD/M BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 072038
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 07 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE DORA MAINTAINS STEADY PROGRESS WESTWARD WHILE
EXPLORING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 150.2W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 150.2 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to
for the continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, followed by additional weakening through 72
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard/M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 071612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.08.2023

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2023 0 24.4N 117.9W 1007 31
0000UTC 08.08.2023 12 25.5N 120.5W 1010 22
1200UTC 08.08.2023 24 26.2N 121.9W 1012 18
0000UTC 09.08.2023 36 26.8N 122.5W 1012 18
1200UTC 09.08.2023 48 27.5N 122.1W 1012 18
0000UTC 10.08.2023 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 146.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2023 0 12.2N 146.5W 963 76
0000UTC 08.08.2023 12 12.5N 150.2W 981 61
1200UTC 08.08.2023 24 12.2N 154.1W 986 55
0000UTC 09.08.2023 36 12.1N 158.1W 987 60
1200UTC 09.08.2023 48 12.2N 162.1W 986 63
0000UTC 10.08.2023 60 12.4N 166.2W 987 56
1200UTC 10.08.2023 72 12.7N 170.0W 990 54
0000UTC 11.08.2023 84 13.3N 173.7W 993 51
1200UTC 11.08.2023 96 14.2N 177.4W 996 51
0000UTC 12.08.2023 108 15.3N 179.2E 1001 46
1200UTC 12.08.2023 120 16.2N 176.0E 1005 39
0000UTC 13.08.2023 132 17.3N 173.2E 1007 34
1200UTC 13.08.2023 144 18.1N 170.4E 1009 33
0000UTC 14.08.2023 156 18.8N 168.1E 1009 30
1200UTC 14.08.2023 168 19.4N 166.2E 1009 29

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.1N 129.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2023 0 13.1N 129.1W 1008 22
0000UTC 08.08.2023 12 14.5N 129.6W 1010 22
1200UTC 08.08.2023 24 15.9N 129.6W 1011 23
0000UTC 09.08.2023 36 CEASED TRACKING

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071612

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 071612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.08.2023

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2023 24.4N 117.9W WEAK
00UTC 08.08.2023 25.5N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2023 26.2N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2023 26.8N 122.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2023 27.5N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 146.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2023 12.2N 146.5W STRONG
00UTC 08.08.2023 12.5N 150.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.08.2023 12.2N 154.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.08.2023 12.1N 158.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2023 12.2N 162.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2023 12.4N 166.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2023 12.7N 170.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2023 13.3N 173.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2023 14.2N 177.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2023 15.3N 179.2E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2023 16.2N 176.0E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2023 17.3N 173.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2023 18.1N 170.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2023 18.8N 168.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2023 19.4N 166.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.1N 129.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2023 13.1N 129.1W WEAK
00UTC 08.08.2023 14.5N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2023 15.9N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071612

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 071434
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Mon Aug 07 2023

The satellite presentation of Dora has degraded some overnight
with the convective ring of cold dense overcast warming slightly.
This is likely due to the ingestion of some drier mid-level air and
possibly going through an eyewall replacement cycle. The latest
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and
JTWC came in at 6.0 (115 kt), 6.5 (127 kt), 6.0 (115 kt)
respectively, while the objective Dvorak ADT and AiDT estimates from
UW-CIMSS were 105 kt and 109 kt. Using a blend of these data, the
initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt with this advisory.

Dora is moving slightly south of due west at 20 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next several days as a
deep layer ridge builds to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. A turn
to the northwest is forecast beyond day 3 as the tropical cyclone
rounds the southwestern periphery of the deep layer subtropical
ridge to the north of Hawaii. On this forecast track, Dora is
expected to move into the western Pacific basin late this week. The
forecast track is virtually a carbon copy of the previous advisory
and is roughly a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus guidance and
deterministic GFS and ECMWF guidance.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track of Dora are
generally conducive for maintenance of a very intense tropical
cyclone during the next several days, with the exception of the mid-
level dry air surrounding the system. Vertical wind shear will
remain low during the next 4 days, while sea surface temperatures
remain around 27C through around day 3. From day 3 onward, the SSTs
increase into the 28/29C range, with vertical wind shear rising
substantially by day 5. Although the satellite presentation of Dora
has degraded slightly overnight, the continued annular appearance
should prevent a rapid weakening of the system, and the official
intensity forecast calls for a very slow and steady weakening trend
during the next couple days. Beyond 48 hours, a slight increase in
sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content may allow for some
intensification of the tropical cyclone. As a result, the official
intensity forecast has been increased slightly for days 3 and 4,
with a rather sharp decrease in intensity shown by day 5 as
increasing vertical wind shear should begin overwhelming Dora. This
forecast is essentially a blend of the statistical and dynamical
intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 12.4N 148.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 12.2N 151.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 12.0N 154.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 12.0N 158.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 12.2N 162.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 12.6N 166.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 13.1N 170.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 15.0N 177.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 17.0N 177.0E 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 071433
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 AM HST Mon Aug 07 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 148.3W
ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 1445 MI...2330 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 148.3 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow and gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 071433
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
1500 UTC MON AUG 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 148.3W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 150SE 75SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 148.3W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 147.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.2N 151.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 35SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.0N 154.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 35SE 35SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.0N 158.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.2N 162.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.6N 166.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.1N 170.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 15.0N 177.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 17.0N 177.0E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 148.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 145.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 145.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.4N 149.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.3N 152.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.2N 156.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.3N 160.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.5N 164.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.9N 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.5N 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.5N 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 146.5W.
07AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 712 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80706Z IS 948 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (EUGENE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 070833
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

The satellite presentation of Dora remains impressive this evening
with a very warm 10 nautical mile wide eye surrounded by a very cold
dense overcast. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC came in at 6.0 (115 kt), 6.5 (127
kt), 6.5 (127 kt) respectively, while the objective Dvorak ADT and
AiDT estimates from UW-CIMSS were both 6.0 (115 kt). Using a blend
of these data, the initial intensity is set at 120 kt.

Dora is moving slightly south of due west at 20 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next several days as a
deep layer ridge builds to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. A
turn to the northwest is forecast beyond day 3 as the tropical
cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of the deep layer
subtropical ridge to the north of Hawaii. On this forecast track,
Dora is expected to move into the western Pacific basin late this
week. The forecast track has changed little from the previous
advisory and is roughly a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus
guidance and deterministic GFS and ECMWF guidance.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track of Dora during
the next several days are generally conducive for maintenance of a
very intense tropical cyclone, with the exception of the mid-level
dry air surrounding the system. Vertical wind shear will remain low
during the next 4 days, while sea surface temperatures remain around
27C. Beyond day 4 the SSTs increase into the 28/29C range, but
vertical wind shear is forecast to rise substantially. Given the
current annular appearance of Dora, the intensity forecast calls
for a very slow and steady decrease through the forecast period,
with the tropical cyclone being influenced primarily by the dry
mid-level environment surrounding the system. This forecast is
essentially a blend of the statistical and dynamical intensity
guidance and very close to the previous intensity forecast through
day 3, and slightly higher at days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 12.5N 146.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 12.4N 149.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 12.3N 152.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 12.2N 156.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 12.3N 160.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 12.9N 168.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 14.5N 175.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 178.5E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 070831
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

...DORA REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE FAR SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 146.3W
ABOUT 975 MI...1575 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 146.3 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow and gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 070832
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
0900 UTC MON AUG 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 146.3W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 45SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 75SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 146.3W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 145.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.4N 149.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 35SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.3N 152.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 35SE 35SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.2N 156.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 12.3N 160.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 35SE 25SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 65NE 35SE 25SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.9N 168.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 5SW 20NW.
34 KT... 65NE 35SE 25SW 55NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 14.5N 175.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.5N 178.5E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 146.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 12.7N 143.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 143.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.5N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.4N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.2N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.2N 158.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.4N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.9N 165.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 13.9N 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.1N 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 144.4W.
07AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z,
071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (EUGENE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 070245
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

Dora remains a well-organized, compact and symmetric hurricane,
moving west in the central Pacific. A blend of the subjective dvorak
estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC combined with the objective
estimates lends an initial intensity remaining at 120 kt. A partial
SAR pass this morning showed winds on the northeast side near 90 kt,
but may have missed some higher winds.

Additional fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next
several days as Dora continues a generally westward track along
27/28 C water, in a negligible wind shear environment. Satellite
data
shows significantly drier air several hundred miles north of Dora,
which if it is ingested into Dora. A slightly more defined
weakening trend is expected as some of that drier air is ingested
into Dora in a couple days. The intensity forecast continues to
follow the last few advisory packages for the first 36 hours, and
remains a little higher than the model consensus. Starting with 48
hours, the forecast intensity has been lowered a bit to keep it in
line with the overall pattern of the intensity models. As the
system moves into a more unfavorable shear environment beyond day
4, additional weakening is likely.

Very little change in the track forecast as models continue to be
very tightly clustered through the week. Dora will move to the west
along the southern edge of the ridge to the north, passing well
south of Hawaii over the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 12.7N 144.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 12.5N 147.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 12.2N 154.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 12.2N 158.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 12.4N 162.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 12.9N 165.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 13.9N 173.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 16.1N 179.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 070240
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

...DORA CONTINUES AS A MAJOR HURRICANE ON A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 144.0W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests on Johnston Island should monitor the progress of Dora.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 144.0 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Minor fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the day or so, with gradual weakening beyond.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 070240
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
0300 UTC MON AUG 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 144.0W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 144.0W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 143.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.5N 147.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.2N 154.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.2N 158.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.4N 162.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.9N 165.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 13.9N 173.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.1N 179.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 144.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE/M BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 12.9N 141.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 141.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.8N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.6N 148.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.4N 152.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.3N 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.4N 160.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.7N 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.9N 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.8N 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 142.5W.
06AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 898 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070400Z,
071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (EUGENE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 062042
TCDCP2

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

Well-organized and compact Dora remains a very symmetric hurricane
as it begins its journey into the central Pacific. A well defined
clear eye with some marginal warming of cloud tops have been
observed on satellite over the last couple of hours. Dvorak-based
intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC and SAB came in at 6.5,
continuing to support an initial intensity around 120 kt. Recent
cloud top warming could suggest a weakening trend, but given Dora's
recent history of being stronger than the forecast, combined with no
scatterometer or other observations to the contrary, will maintain
the 120 kt intensity with this package.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next several
days as Dora moves over relatively warm water in a negligible wind
shear environment. Drier air to the north of the system is expected
to be ingested into the system within a few days and will help to
weaken the storm midweek. The intensity models are in agreement with
a weakening trend through the week, however they vary with regards
to how much weakening occurs as the week progresses. The CPHC
intensity forecast follows the NHC trend in the last few advisory
packages of being a little above the model consensus.

Dora is expected to move to the west along the southern edge of the
ridge to the north. On this track, Dora will pass well south of
Hawaii over the next several days. The model track guidance remains
very tightly clustered through the week, thus the forecast track
remains very close to the previous advisory.

Dora advisory information was originally transmitted under the
incorrect headers this has been corrected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 12.8N 142.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.8N 145.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 12.4N 160.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 12.7N 163.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 13.9N 171.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 15.8N 178.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 062039
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE DORA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BASIN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 142.1W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 142.1 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during
the next few days, with gradual weakening expected by mid-week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 062038
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 142.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 142.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 141.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.8N 145.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 12.4N 160.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 12.7N 163.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 13.9N 171.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 15.8N 178.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 142.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE/M BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 062034
TCDCP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

Well-organized and compact Dora remains a very symmetric hurricane
as it begins its journey into the central Pacific. A well defined
clear eye with some marginal warming of cloud tops have been
observed on satellite over the last couple of hours. Dvorak-based
intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC and SAB came in at 6.5,
continuing to support an initial intensity around 120 kt. Recent
cloud top warming could suggest a weakening trend, but given Dora's
recent history of being stronger than the forecast, combined with no
scatterometer or other observations to the contrary, will maintain
the 120 kt intensity with this package.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next several
days as Dora moves over relatively warm water in a negligible wind
shear environment. Drier air to the north of the system is expected
to be ingested into the system within a few days and will help to
weaken the storm midweek. The intensity models are in agreement with
a weakening trend through the week, however they vary with regards
to how much weakening occurs as the week progresses. The CPHC
intensity forecast follows the NHC trend in the last few advisory
packages of being a little above the model consensus.

Dora is expected to move to the west along the southern edge of the
ridge to the north. On this track, Dora will pass well south of
Hawaii over the next several days. The model track guidance remains
very tightly clustered through the week, thus the forecast track
remains very close to the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 12.8N 142.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.8N 145.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 12.4N 160.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 12.7N 163.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 13.9N 171.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 15.8N 178.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 062033
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE DORA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BASIN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 142.1W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 142.1 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during
the next few days, with gradual weakening expected by mid-week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 062033
TCMCP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 142.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 142.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 141.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.8N 145.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 12.4N 160.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 12.7N 163.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 13.9N 171.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 15.8N 178.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 142.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE/M BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 139.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 139.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.8N 142.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.7N 146.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.4N 150.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.3N 154.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.3N 157.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.5N 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.5N 169.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.0N 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 140.4W.
06AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 999 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z,070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 061449
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

Dora remains a well-organized and very symmetric hurricane.
Dvorak-based intensity estimates are a bit lower than they were
six hours ago, due to marginally warmer cloud tops surrounding
Dora's clear eye, so the intensity has been lowered very slightly to
120 kt.

Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two
while the small hurricane moves over relatively warm water with
negligible environmental wind shear. By mid-week, Dora will begin to
encounter a drier surrounding environment. Weakening is forecast,
but potentially at a very slow rate if Dora maintains its
annular-like structure. Conversely, because Dora is a small
hurricane, it could be subject to relatively rapid intensity changes
that can't be reliably predicted. By the end of the forecast period,
while there is agreement that Dora will be somewhat weaker than it
is now, the reliable intensity guidance ranges from near 50 kt
(HWRF) to almost 100 kt (DSHP), highlighting the uncertainty in the
forecast. The NHC intensity forecast remains a little above the
model consensus, similar to the previous advisory.

The track forecast is more straightforward. A ridge to the north of
Dora will steer the hurricane westward at a similar speed for the
next several days, keeping it well south of Hawaii. Virtually no
change was made to the NHC track forecast with this advisory.

Dora has reached the central Pacific basin and the next advisory
will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at 2100
UTC/1100 AM HST. Users will not need to go exploring for future
information on Dora, which will continue to be available on the web
at hurricanes.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 13.0N 140.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 12.8N 142.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 12.7N 146.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 12.3N 154.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 12.3N 157.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 12.5N 161.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 13.5N 169.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 15.0N 176.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 061448
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Sun Aug 06 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE DORA REACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...
...NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 140.1W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 2095 MI...3370 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 140.1 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to
continue moving westward across the central Pacific basin for the
next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during
the next few days, but gradual weakening is expected by mid-week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 1100 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO
header WTPA32 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the
web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 061448
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 140.1W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 140.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 139.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.8N 142.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.7N 146.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.3N 154.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.3N 157.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.5N 161.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 13.5N 169.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 15.0N 176.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 140.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOTCMCP2...WMO HEADER WTPA22 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 13.1N 137.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 137.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.0N 140.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.8N 144.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.6N 148.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.5N 152.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.4N 155.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.5N 159.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.1N 167.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.6N 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 138.6W.
06AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1092 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80606Z IS 942 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 060848
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

Satellite images indicate Dora still has the classic structure of
a well-organized hurricane with a clear eye. The initial intensity
is held at 125 kt, which is closest to SAB and TAFB final T-numbers
of T6.5/127 kt.

Dora has maintained its westward heading at a slightly faster 18
kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged. A building ridge
to the north of the hurricane will steer Dora to the west at a
similar speed for the next several days, keeping it well south of
Hawaii. The latest track forecast is very close to the previous
prediction with only minor updates.

The storm is currently in an environment of light vertical wind
shear, over relatively warm waters, and still exhibiting annular
structural characteristics. Global models forecast Dora to move
into a drier environment early next week and the wind shear is
expected to increase by the end of the forecast period. Therefore,
gradual weakening is predicted, though the intensity forecast is on
the higher end of the guidance. As stated in the previous
discussion, intensity fluctuations are possible given the storm's
small size and structure. The NHC intensity forecast is quite
similar to the previous prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 13.1N 138.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 13.0N 140.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 12.8N 144.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 12.5N 152.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 12.4N 155.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 12.5N 159.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 13.1N 167.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 14.6N 174.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 060846
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE DORA CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREK...
...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 138.3W
ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 1980 MI...3185 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 138.3 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Dora is expected to move into the central Pacific
basin Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during
the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening through the early
part of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 060845
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0900 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 138.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 138.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 137.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.0N 140.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.8N 144.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.5N 152.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.4N 155.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 12.5N 159.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 13.1N 167.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 14.6N 174.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 138.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 13.2N 135.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 135.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.0N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.8N 142.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.5N 146.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.4N 150.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.3N 154.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.4N 157.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.9N 165.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 14.1N 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 136.7W.
06AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1187 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061000Z,
061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (EUGENE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 060241
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

Dora has acquired annular traits, highlighted by a circular and
relatively large eye (compared to the size of the hurricane itself),
a wide band of very cold cloud tops within the CDO, and dissolving
outer bands around the periphery of the circulation. As a
reflection of this, the Annular Hurricane Index (AHI) has increased
to about 85 out of 100. The maximum winds are now estimated to be
125 kt, which best matches a Dvorak estimate of T6.5/127 kt from SAB
and objective ADT and AiDT numbers of 123-125 kt.

There's no new news to report regarding Dora's forecast track. A
ridge building westward to the north of the hurricane is expected
to push Dora faster toward the west while it passes well south of
Hawaii in the next 2-4 days. The track guidance--and the NHC
official forecast--have been remarkably steady for the past few
days, and the new forecast is basically an update of the previous
prediction.

Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 6-12 hours
while Dora becomes increasingly annular. The hurricane is forecast
to continue moving nearly parallel to the sea surface temperature
gradient, over waters of 26-27C for the next several days.
Deep-layer shear is expected to remain light, although Dora is
likely to move into a drier, more subsident environment into early
next week. That said, annular hurricanes have a proclivity for
weakening more slowly than expected or suggested by intensity
models, and the new NHC forecast therefore lies near the upper
bound of the available guidance, showing only gradual weakening
through the 5-day forecast period. This forecast is closest to the
SHIPS guidance during the first couple of days, and then trends
close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 13.2N 136.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 13.0N 139.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 12.8N 142.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 12.5N 146.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 12.3N 154.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 12.4N 157.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 12.9N 165.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 14.1N 173.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 060240
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

...DORA EVEN STRONGER AS IT TAKES ON ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 136.5W
ABOUT 1335 MI...2145 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 1865 MI...3005 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 136.5 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Dora is expected to move into the
central Pacific basin Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next day or so, followed by only gradual
weakening through the early part of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 060240
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 135.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.0N 139.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.8N 142.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.5N 146.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.3N 154.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.4N 157.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 12.9N 165.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 14.1N 173.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 136.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 134.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 134.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.1N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.9N 140.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.7N 144.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.5N 148.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.4N 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.3N 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.5N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.5N 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 135.1W.
05AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1272 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80518Z IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 052100Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z,
061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 052037
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

Dora has become significantly better organized over the past six
hours, with a well-defined 15 n mi wide eye inside a cold central
dense overcast. The various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates are now in the 100-120 kt range, and the
initial intensity is increased to 115 kt in best agreement with the
subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB.

As noted in the last several advisories, Dora continues moving
westward along the southern side of a deep-layer ridge to the north.
This ridge is expected to build westward for the next three days
or so, which should induce a somewhat faster forward speed while it
passes well south of Hawaii early next week. There has been little
change to the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new
forecast track is again almost identical to the old track.

Dora is moving over sea surface temperatures near 27C, and it is
currently in a light-shear environment. This is at least partly
responsible for the current intensification. The intensity
guidance suggests this round of intensification should be almost
over, although there is some uncertainty in this since it
underestimated how strong the storm would get today. Based on the
current trends and the current guidance, the intensity forecast
calls for some additional strengthening during the next 12 h,
followed by some weakening. After 48 h, while Dora should remain
over 27C sea surface temperatures and in light shear through 96 h,
it is expected to encounter a drier environment and an area of
upper-level convergence. These factors should lead to continued
gradual weakening, with the caveat that there is a large spread in
the guidance on how much weakening will occur. The early part of
the intensity forecast follows the upper edge of the intensity
guidance, while the 60-120 h portion is in best agreement with the
SHIPS model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 13.3N 134.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.1N 137.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 13.5N 171.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 052037
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

...DORA REGAINS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...
...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 134.8W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 1760 MI...2830 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 134.8 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible this afternoon and tonight. Dora is then expected to
weaken beginning Sunday and continuing through Monday.

Dora remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 052036
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.1N 137.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 13.5N 171.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 134.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 051746
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Special Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
800 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

Dora has continued to intensify during the past few hours, and
based on the latest satellite intensity estimates the initial
intensity is increased to 110 kt. Some additional strengthening
could occur in the next 6-12 h. This special advisory is being
issued to raise the initial intensity, and to increase the forecast
intensities at 12, 24, and 36 h.

No changes are being made to the track forecast or wind radii
forecast at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1800Z 13.3N 134.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 13.2N 135.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 13.0N 139.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 12.8N 143.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 12.5N 146.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 12.3N 154.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 12.5N 162.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 13.5N 170.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 051745
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Special Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
800 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE DORA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 134.2W
ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 134.2 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible this afternoon and tonight. Dora is then expected to
weaken beginning Sunday and continuing through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 051745
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
1800 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.2W AT 05/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 134.2W AT 05/1800Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 132.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.2N 135.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.0N 139.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.8N 143.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.5N 146.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.3N 154.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 12.5N 162.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 13.5N 170.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 134.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 132.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 132.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.2N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.0N 139.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.8N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.5N 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.4N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.3N 154.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.5N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.5N 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 133.6W.
05AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1352 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 41 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 051433
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

The increase in Dora's organization that started just before the
last advisory has continued during the last several hours, with a
cloud-filled eye becoming more persistent in a central dense
overcast with some cloud top temperatures colder than -80C. The
various satellite intensity estimates are now in the 95-120 kt
range, and the initial intensity is increased to a possibly
conservative 100 kt.

Dora continues moving westward or 265/16 kt along the southern side
of a deep-layer ridge to the north. This ridge is expected to build
westward, which should induce a somewhat faster forward speed while
it passes well south of Hawaii early next week. The track guidance
is still tightly clustered and has changed little since the
previous advisory, and the new track forecast is almost the same as
the previous forecast.

The easterly shear that occurred yesterday seems to be decreasing,
with that decrease probably allowing the re-intensification.
During the next 48-72 h, the center of Dora should be in a
light-shear environment with sea surface temperatures of 26-27C.
While there is still some spread, the intensity guidance
indicates that the current intensification should end in the next
6-12 h, followed by a gradual weakening. This part of the
intensity forecast follows the guidance and is a little above the
intensity consensus. After 72 h, the hurricane is expected to move
over increasing sea surface temperatures, but also move into a
drier air mass. In addition, some westerly vertical shear could
develop by 120 h. However, the guidance spread becomes quite
large, with the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models showing a
significantly higher intensity than the dynamical models. This
part of the intensity forecast will show a slow weakening, but will
lean more towards the SHIPS models than the dynamical models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 13.3N 133.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 13.2N 135.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 13.0N 139.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 12.8N 143.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 12.5N 146.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 12.3N 154.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 12.5N 162.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 13.5N 170.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 051431
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

...DORA RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 133.3W
ABOUT 1535 MI...2470 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 133.3 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased near 115 mph (185 km/h) with
higher gusts. Dora is now a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is
expected today. Dora is expected to weaken beginning tonight and
continuing through Monday.

Dora remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 051431
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
1500 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 133.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 133.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 132.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.2N 135.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.0N 139.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.8N 143.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.5N 146.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 12.3N 154.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 12.5N 162.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 13.5N 170.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 133.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 130.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 130.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.3N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.2N 137.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.9N 140.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.7N 144.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.6N 148.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.5N 152.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.5N 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.3N 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 131.9W.
05AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1444 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAWAII HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80506Z IS 972 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 050850
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 04 2023

There is a hint of Dora's eye clearing once again this evening.
Since the last advisory, geostationary satellite imagery has shown
deep and persistent bursts of convection near the estimated center.
A couple of satellite microwave passes from 0241 and 0253 UTC showed
an eye open to the north. Subjective analyses from TAFB and SAB
both gave a T5.0/90 kt, however given recent satellite trends, the
initial intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is moving westward at 16 kt along the southern
periphery of a ridge to its north. This ridge is expected to build
westward, which should induce a faster forward speed while it passes
well south of Hawaii early next week. The track guidance is still
well-clustered and the latest official track forecast is largely
unchanged.

Unlike the track model guidance, there is quite a bit of spread in
the intensity guidance. Thus, there is lower-than-normal confidence
in this prediction. Global models suggest the moderate deep-layer
vertical wind shear should decrease within 24 h, but there may
be some mid-layer shear caused by the building ridge that could
weaken Dora in a couple days. Sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track remain relatively conducive (26-27 degrees C), but
the environmental moisture gradually decreases. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and overall
shows some gradual weakening. However, slight fluctuations
in intensity are possible through much of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.5N 131.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 13.3N 134.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 13.2N 137.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 12.5N 152.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 12.5N 160.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 13.3N 167.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 050848
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 04 2023

...HURRICANE DORA MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 131.6W
ABOUT 1560 MI...2515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1640 MI...2640 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 131.6 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue with some increase in forward speed during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased near 110 mph (175 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast through Saturday, followed
by little change in strength on Sunday and Monday.

Dora remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 050848
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0900 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 131.6W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 131.6W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 130.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 134.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.2N 137.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.5N 152.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 12.5N 160.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 13.3N 167.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 131.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 129.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 129.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.6N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.4N 135.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.1N 139.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.9N 142.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.8N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.7N 150.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.7N 158.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.4N 165.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 130.3W.
05AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1321 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 972
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 050233
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Fri Aug 04 2023

Deep convection continues to burst within Dora's eyewall, and due
to the resulting convective canopy, there have not been any hints
of an eye during the past few hours. In fact, a recent 0052 UTC
SSMIS microwave pass doesn't show an eye either, but instead a
compact curved band wrapping into the center. TAFB and SAB both
used the Dvorak embedded center pattern and provided consensus
estimates of T5.0/5.0, which closely matches the latest objective
ADT and AiDT numbers from UW-CIMSS. Dora's initial intensity is
therefore set at 90 kt.

Dora's motion remains westward at 265/16 kt. The low- to mid-level
ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to strengthen in a
couple of days, which should result in Dora moving faster toward the
west while it passes well to the south of Hawaii early next week.
The track guidance has been tightly clustered and unwavering, and
the new NHC forecast is merely an update of the previous prediction,
lying close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

It appears that some moderate mid-level westerly shear (beneath the
outflow layer) may develop in Dora's environment in a couple of
days as a result of the strengthening low- to mid-level steering
flow. The thermodynamic environment is not ideal with (1) sea
surface temperatures along Dora's forecast path only marginally
warm at 26-27C, (2) the hurricane about to move through a more
stable environment during the next 48 hours, followed by (3) a
drier mid-level environment after 48 hours. Since the worst of
these conditions doesn't appear to overlap in time and space,
Dora's intensity is forecast to decrease gradually or be relatively
steady with some fluctuations for much of the next 5 days. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the previous forecast
with the latest HCCA corrected-consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 13.7N 130.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.6N 132.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 13.4N 135.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 13.1N 139.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 12.9N 142.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 12.8N 146.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 12.7N 150.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 12.7N 158.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 13.4N 165.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 050232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Fri Aug 04 2023

...DORA ON A STEADFAST TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE WEST...
...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 130.1W
ABOUT 1465 MI...2360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1735 MI...2790 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 130.1 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A continued westward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast through Saturday,
followed by little change in strength on Sunday and Monday.

Dora remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 050232
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0300 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 130.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 130.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 129.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.6N 132.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.4N 135.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.1N 139.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.9N 142.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.8N 146.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.7N 150.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 12.7N 158.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 13.4N 165.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 13.8N 127.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 127.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.6N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.5N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.3N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.1N 141.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.9N 144.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.8N 148.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.5N 156.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.0N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 128.7W.
04AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1274 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 957
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 042035
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023

While there are occasional hints of an eye in visible and infrared
satellite imagery, the organization of Dora has decreased a little
since the last advisory. This is most notable in the eastern
semicircle, where the size of the central dense overcast has
diminished due to the effects of easterly shear. Satellite
intensity estimates are now in the 90-105 kt range, and the initial
intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 95 kt.

This is starting to sound like a stuck record, but the initial
motion is again 265/16 kt. The track guidance and the track
forecast philosophy are again unchanged from the previous advisory,
as a deep-layer ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to build
westward and keep Dora on the same general trajectory for entire
forecast period. The new forecast track has noise-level
adjustments from the previous track.

The current shear should let up in the next 12-18 h, but until that
time Dora should continue to weaken some. After 18 h, the cyclone
should be over 26-27C sea surface temperatures, with the forecast
track taking Dora close to a patch of colder water between 72-96 h.
Based on these conditions and the intensity guidance, the new
intensity forecast calls for a little more weakening during the
first 24 h, followed by little change in strength from 24-72 h.
After 72 h, slight weakening is forecast due to the colder water
just to the north of the track. The new forecast is near the
intensity consensus through 72 h, then lies a little above the
consensus. It should be noted, though, that even while weakening
Dora is expected to remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day
forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.8N 128.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 13.6N 130.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 13.5N 134.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 13.3N 137.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 13.1N 141.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 12.9N 144.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 12.8N 148.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 12.5N 156.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 13.0N 164.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 042034
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023

...DORA WEAKENS SOME MORE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN
EASTERN PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 128.5W
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1835 MI...2955 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 128.5 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast through Saturday,
with little change in strength expected on Sunday and Monday.

Dora remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 042034
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
2100 UTC FRI AUG 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 128.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.3N 137.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.1N 141.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.9N 144.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.8N 148.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 12.5N 156.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 13.0N 164.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 128.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 126.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 126.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.9N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.7N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.5N 135.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.2N 139.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.0N 142.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.9N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.0N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 127.1W. 04AUG23.
HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1225 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 957 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 54 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 041438
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023

Dora is experiencing some moderate easterly shear at this time.
While the cyclone continues to generate cold cloud tops in the
eyewall, the eye has become almost indistinct in infrared imagery.
In addition, recently-received SSM/IS data shows decreased
convection in the northeastern quadrant. There is a considerable
spread in the various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates with a range from 95-115 kt. Based on the trends since
the last advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat
uncertain 105 kt.

The initial motion is still 265/16 kt, and the track forecast
reasoning is again unchanged from the previous advisory. A deep-
layer ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to build westward
and keep Dora on the same general trajectory for entire forecast
period. The new track guidance has changed little from the
previous advisory, and the new forecast track is an update of the
previous track.

The current shear should persist for another 24 h or so, and after
the shear lets up Dora will be moving over sea surface temperatures
of 26-27C until about 96 h. Based on these and the intensity
guidance, the intensity forecast through 96 h will show unsteady
weakening, with faster weakening during the first 24 h and around
72-96 h when Dora is closest to cold water. The intensity forecast
becomes more uncertain by 120 h. The cyclone is supposed to move
over warmer water and be in a light shear environment by that time.
However, the dynamical guidance suggests continued weakening despite
the apparently favorable environment. The 120-h forecast point
will show continued weakening in deference to the dynamical models.
It should be noted, though, that even while weakening Dora is
expected to remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day forecast
period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.0N 126.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 13.7N 132.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 13.5N 135.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 13.2N 139.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 13.0N 142.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 12.9N 146.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 13.0N 154.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 13.0N 162.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 041437
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Fri Aug 04 2023

...DORA WEAKENS SOME AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN
PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 126.9W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1935 MI...3115 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 126.9 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
two days or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 041436
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
1500 UTC FRI AUG 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.7N 132.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.5N 135.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.2N 139.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.0N 142.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.9N 146.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 13.0N 154.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 13.0N 162.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 126.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 124.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 124.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.9N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.7N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.5N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.2N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.0N 140.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.8N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.7N 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.0N 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 125.4W. 04AUG23.
HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1183 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 952 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 54 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 040854
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

The satellite presentation of Dora has degraded since the last
advisory. The eye is cloud filled and the outflow on the eastern
portion of the semicircle appears restricted. The initial intensity
has been lowered to a conservative 115 kt based on a blend of the T-
and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Dora is moving westward at 265/16 kt and the track forecast
reasoning is unchanged. A well-established ridge to the north of
the storm is forecast to build westward and keep Dora on the same
general trajectory for entire forecast period. The latest model
consensus has shifted slightly northward, so the new forecast lies
just north of the previous advisory prediction.

Based on the current satellite presentation, Dora may be
experiencing the effects of easterly vertical wind shear and thus,
beginning its weakening trend. Moderate shear is expected to
continue for the next 24 h and the intensity guidance suggests Dora
should continue to weaken. By 36-48 h, the shear is forecast to
decrease and the forecast track takes the hurricane over relatively
warm sea surface temperatures of 26-27 degrees C. These conditions
should allow for Dora's intensity to remain steady for a couple of
day. Additional weakening is noted by days 4 and 5, following the
overall trends in the intensity guidance, but Dora is expected to
remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.1N 125.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 13.9N 127.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 13.5N 133.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 13.2N 136.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 13.0N 140.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 12.8N 144.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 12.7N 151.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 13.0N 159.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 040849
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE DORA CONTINUES WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 125.1W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2050 MI...3300 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 125.1 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next day or so, but Dora is forecast to be near or at
major hurricane intensity through much of the weekend.

Dora is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 040847
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0900 UTC FRI AUG 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.1W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.1W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 124.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 127.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.5N 133.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.2N 136.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.0N 140.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.8N 144.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 12.7N 151.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 159.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 125.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.2N 122.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 122.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.9N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.6N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.3N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.0N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.8N 138.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.6N 141.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.4N 149.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.7N 157.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 123.7W.
04AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1150 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 950
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 54 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 040238
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

As noted in the previous advisory, Dora appeared to have completed
an eyewall replacement earlier today, and the small eye warmed
considerably by 0000 UTC, surrounded by a solid ring of deep
convection with cloud tops as cold as -80 to -85 degrees Celsius.
An intense burst of deep convection within the southern eyewall has
recently obscured the eye, but that might be more of a reflection
of the hurricane's small size rather than a significant degradation
of its structure. Subjective Dvorak estimates have increased to
T6.5/127 kt and T6.0/115 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, while
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 120-130 kt. The
initial intensity is conservatively set near the lower end of the
estimates--120 kt--given the recent obscuration of the eye.

Dora's initial motion remains south of due west, or 260/16 kt. A
stronger-than-normal ridge located to the north is forecast to build
westward in tandem with Dora, keeping the hurricane on a general
westward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period. In fact,
much of the track guidance suggests that Dora is likely to lose
latitude for the next 4 days or so. The main forecast difference
compared to the previous advisory is that the guidance is showing a
slower motion in the 2- to 4-day period, and the NHC track forecast
has been slowed down accordingly, trending toward the HCCA consensus
aid.

Despite Dora's recent re-strengthening, the intensity guidance
suggests that the hurricane may begin weakening again during the
next 24-36 hours, likely as a result of some increase in shear and
water temperatures cooling to near 27C. By 36-48 hours, however,
the shear appears to decrease once again, and sufficiently warm
waters of 26-27C should allow the hurricane's intensity to change
little for a couple of days. It should be noted that if Dora's
track shifts any farther south, then it would move over warmer
waters and could even have the potential to re-intensify in the
low-shear environment. Additional weakening is noted by days 4 and
5, following the overall trends in the intensity guidance, but Dora
is expected to remain a hurricane through the entire 5-day forecast
period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 14.1N 123.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 13.9N 125.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 13.6N 128.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 13.3N 131.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 13.0N 135.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 12.6N 141.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 12.4N 149.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 12.7N 157.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 040237
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

...DORA REACHES CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AGAIN...
...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRAVERSING THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC
AS A HURRICANE FOR AWHILE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 123.4W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2160 MI...3480 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 123.4 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next day or so, but Dora is forecast to be near or at
major hurricane intensity through much of the weekend.

Dora is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 040237
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0300 UTC FRI AUG 04 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 123.4W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 123.4W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 125.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.6N 128.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.3N 131.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.6N 141.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 12.4N 149.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 12.7N 157.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ65 KNHC 040100
TCUEP5

Hurricane Dora Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
300 PM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

...DORA RE-STRENGTHENING...

Recent satellite images indicate that Dora has re-strengthened more
than anticipated, and the maximum sustained winds are now estimated
to be 140 mph (220 km/h). This increase in intensity will be
reflected in the next forecast issued at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM HST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 122.9W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 121.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 121.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.1N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.8N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.5N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.3N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.0N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.8N 140.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.5N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.5N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 122.1W.
03AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1113 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z
IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 46 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 032038
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

Microwave satellite data received between 12-14Z suggests that Dora
has been undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. In addition, the
eye has been becoming more distinct during the past hour or two,
although it is not much larger than the pinhole eye seen last night.
Based on the satellite intensity estimates and the apparent
eyewall replacement, the initial intensity is set at 105 kt.

The initial motion remains 265/16 kt. As mentioned before, a
well-established low- to mid-level ridge north of Dora is expected
to maintain this general motion for the next several days. The
track guidance, while tightly clustered, has shifted a little to
the south from the previous advisory, and the forecast track is
also nudged southward. The new forecast track is close to the
various consensus models.

The latest shear estimates and forecasts suggest the expected
increase in easterly shear has not yet occurred. Based on this,
there is probably a 6-12 h window for Dora to re-intensify as the
eyewall replacement cycle ends, and the new intensity forecast
shows modest intensification during that time. After 12 h,
increased shear and slowly decreasing sea surface temperatures along
the forecast track should cause weakening through 48 h. After 48 h,
the shear is forecast to decrease while Dora is over water
temperatures of 26-27C. The intensity guidance during this time
shows a more gradual weakening than during the 12-48 h period, and
this part of the intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the
guidance. While the wind field of Dora may expand slightly due to
the eyewall replacement, it is expected to remain a compact system
that could be more prone than normal to rapid intensity
fluctuations.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 14.4N 121.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 124.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 13.8N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 12.8N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 12.5N 155.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 032037
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

...DORA A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 121.8W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 121.8 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight.
However, weakening is expected on Friday and Saturday.

Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 032036
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 124.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.8N 127.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.8N 140.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 12.5N 155.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 121.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031650

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.08.2023

HURRICANE DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 119.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2023 0 14.9N 119.3W 952 82
0000UTC 04.08.2023 12 14.7N 122.8W 969 69
1200UTC 04.08.2023 24 14.3N 126.4W 970 68
0000UTC 05.08.2023 36 14.2N 129.6W 977 66
1200UTC 05.08.2023 48 13.9N 132.6W 979 61
0000UTC 06.08.2023 60 13.9N 135.9W 984 59
1200UTC 06.08.2023 72 13.7N 139.5W 987 57
0000UTC 07.08.2023 84 13.5N 143.3W 988 57
1200UTC 07.08.2023 96 13.3N 147.4W 992 54
0000UTC 08.08.2023 108 13.2N 151.6W 997 51
1200UTC 08.08.2023 120 13.2N 155.9W 999 49
0000UTC 09.08.2023 132 13.5N 160.5W 1002 44
1200UTC 09.08.2023 144 13.7N 164.8W 1003 43
0000UTC 10.08.2023 156 14.2N 168.8W 1005 42
1200UTC 10.08.2023 168 14.8N 172.7W 1006 37

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031649

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 031650

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.08.2023

HURRICANE DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 119.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2023 14.9N 119.3W INTENSE
00UTC 04.08.2023 14.7N 122.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.08.2023 14.3N 126.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2023 14.2N 129.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.08.2023 13.9N 132.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2023 13.9N 135.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.08.2023 13.7N 139.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2023 13.5N 143.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2023 13.3N 147.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2023 13.2N 151.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2023 13.2N 155.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2023 13.5N 160.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2023 13.7N 164.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2023 14.2N 168.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2023 14.8N 172.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031649

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 119.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 119.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.6N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.2N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.9N 128.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.6N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.4N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.1N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.0N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.0N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 120.4W. 03AUG23.
HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1075 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 955 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 031437
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

Dora's rapid intensification has ended during the past several
hours. While the eyewall cloud tops remain quite cold, the eye has
become cloud-filled and indistinct. The various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so
based on this the initial intensity is set at 110 kt.

The initial motion is now 265/16. As mentioned in the previous
forecast discussion, a well-established low- to mid-level ridge
north of Dora is expected to maintain this general motion for the
next several days. The track guidance remains tightly clustered in
both speed and direction, and the new forecast track, which is close
to the consensus models, has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast.

Dora has likely peaked in intensity. While the storm is currently
over sea surface temperatures near 28C, the global model forecasts
indicate that increasing upper-level easterly winds should produce
shear during the next 36-48 h, and this is likely to cause problems
for the small inner core. Thus, the intensity forecast follows
the trend of the guidance in showing weakening during this time.
After 48 h, the shear is forecast to decrease while Dora is over
water temperatures of 26-27C. The intensity guidance during this
time shows a more gradual weakening than what is expected earlier
in the forecast period, and this part of the intensity forecast is
near or a little below the intensity consensus. Uncertainty
remains high with the intensity forecast since this compact system
could be more prone than normal to rapid intensity fluctuations.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 14.7N 120.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 14.6N 122.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 13.9N 128.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 13.6N 131.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 13.4N 134.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 13.1N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 13.0N 145.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 13.0N 153.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 031437
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023

...DORA STILL MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 120.1W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 120.1 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion at a
similar forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 031436
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
1500 UTC THU AUG 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 120.1W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 120.1W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 119.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 122.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 128.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.6N 131.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.4N 134.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.1N 138.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 13.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 13.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 120.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.1N 117.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 117.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.8N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.4N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.2N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.8N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.5N 133.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.3N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.9N 143.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 12.9N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 118.7W. 03AUG23.
HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1057 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 952 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 41 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031600Z,032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 030850
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 02 2023

Dora remains an impressive major hurricane this evening.
Geostationary satellite imagery indicates cloud top temperatures
surrounding the pinhole eye have cooled to -75 to -80 degrees C. The
initial intensity for this advisory has been increased slightly to
115 kt and is in agreement with both of the subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane continues to move westward at 260/15 kt. A
well-established ridge to the north of the storm is expected to
maintain this general motion for the next several days. The most
recent track guidance is well-clustered and only minor adjustments
have been made to the latest official track forecast, which still
lies between the HCCA and TVCE multi-model consensus aids.

Model guidance suggests Dora is nearing its peak intensity. The
cyclone is currently over very warm waters (greater than 28 degrees
C) and in a environment with light-to-moderate vertical wind shear.
However, global models predict the wind shear will increase during
the next 24-48 h and induce a weakening trend. Between 60 h and
until the end of the forecast period, the wind shear should relax
again over the storm as it remains over warm waters (between 26-27
degrees C). The updated intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory prediction and shows a peak intensity of 125 kt in
12 h, which is above all model guidance. At 24 h, the forecast is
blended back into various model consensus guidance and shows gradual
weakening. Uncertainty remains high with the intensity forecast
since the compact system could be more prone to rapid intensity
fluctuations.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 15.0N 118.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 14.8N 120.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 14.4N 123.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 14.2N 127.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 13.8N 130.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 13.5N 133.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 13.3N 136.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 12.9N 143.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 12.9N 150.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 030844
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 02 2023

...POWERFUL DORA CONTINUES WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 118.5W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 118.5 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion at a
similar forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dora is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected early Thursday, followed by gradual weakening beginning
late Thursday and continuing through Friday.

Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 030844
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0900 UTC THU AUG 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 40SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.8N 120.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.4N 123.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.2N 127.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.8N 130.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.5N 133.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.3N 136.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 12.9N 143.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 12.9N 150.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 118.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030424

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 59.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.08.2023 0 31.1N 59.1W 1016 25
1200UTC 03.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 116.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.08.2023 0 15.0N 116.3W 976 66
1200UTC 03.08.2023 12 15.0N 119.3W 964 72
0000UTC 04.08.2023 24 14.9N 122.6W 965 78
1200UTC 04.08.2023 36 14.9N 126.1W 970 66
0000UTC 05.08.2023 48 15.0N 129.4W 979 60
1200UTC 05.08.2023 60 14.8N 132.7W 981 61
0000UTC 06.08.2023 72 14.7N 136.1W 984 57
1200UTC 06.08.2023 84 14.5N 139.7W 989 57
0000UTC 07.08.2023 96 14.3N 143.8W 995 52
1200UTC 07.08.2023 108 14.2N 148.3W 1001 46
0000UTC 08.08.2023 120 14.1N 153.3W 1006 38
1200UTC 08.08.2023 132 14.2N 158.7W 1009 35
0000UTC 09.08.2023 144 CEASED TRACKING

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030424

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 030424

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 59.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.08.2023 31.1N 59.1W WEAK
12UTC 03.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DORA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 116.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.08.2023 15.0N 116.3W STRONG
12UTC 03.08.2023 15.0N 119.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.08.2023 14.9N 122.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2023 14.9N 126.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.08.2023 15.0N 129.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.08.2023 14.8N 132.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2023 14.7N 136.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2023 14.5N 139.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.08.2023 14.3N 143.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.08.2023 14.2N 148.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.08.2023 14.1N 153.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2023 14.2N 158.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030424

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 116.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 116.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.0N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.7N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.3N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.9N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.6N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.2N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.9N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.0N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 117.2W.
03AUG23. HURRICANE 05E (DORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1045 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 956 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 030237
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 02 2023

Satellite data reveal that compact Dora has rapidly strengthened. A
small, symmetric eye has emerged and warmed during the past several
hours, surrounded by a solid ring of very deep convection with cloud
tops colder than -70 to -75 deg C. As a result, the latest satellite
intensity estimates have significantly risen since earlier today.
Based on a blend of the 00 UTC Dvorak estimates from TAFB (T6.0/115
kt) and SAB (T5.5/102 kt), the initial intensity is raised to 110 kt
for this advisory, which marks a 45-kt increase in intensity over
the past 24 hours. Dora is now the second major hurricane of the
season in the eastern North Pacific basin.

Dora continues to move westward at 260/14 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged, as a well-established ridge to the north of
Dora will keep the hurricane moving quickly on a heading just south
of due west for the next several days. The latest track guidance
remains in very good agreement, and overall confidence is above
average on this component of the forecast. The updated NHC track is
very similar to the previous one, generally falling in between the
HCCA and TVCE multi-model aids.

Given its impressive satellite structure and well-formed inner core,
some additional near-term strengthening seems likely tonight as Dora
moves over SSTs greater than 28C and within a low deep-layer shear
environment. The updated peak intensity of 125 kt lies just above
the consensus aids but below the latest HAFS-A/B runs. The easterly
shear is forecast to increase on Thursday and into Friday while Dora
moves over somewhat cooler SSTs, which is expected to bring an end
to its intensification and induce some weakening of the small
hurricane. However, the deep-layer shear diagnosed in both the GFS
and ECMWF SHIPS guidance diminishes between 60-120 h, and the
forecast track keeps Dora over SSTs of 26.5-27C through the end of
the period. Thus, the official forecast does not show as much
weakening and follows the multi-model consensus during this time.
Uncertainty remains high with the intensity forecast since the
compact system could be more prone to rapid intensity fluctuations.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 15.2N 116.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 15.0N 119.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 14.7N 122.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 14.3N 125.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 13.9N 128.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 13.6N 131.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 13.2N 134.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 12.9N 141.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 13.0N 149.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 030236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 02 2023

...DORA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 116.9W
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 116.9 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion at a
similar forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected tonight, followed by gradual weakening beginning late
Thursday and continuing through Friday.

Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 030236
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0300 UTC THU AUG 03 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 116.9W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 116.9W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 119.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.7N 122.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.3N 125.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 128.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.6N 131.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.2N 134.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 12.9N 141.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 13.0N 149.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 116.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 022051
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023

After the last advisory, we received a couple of late arriving
microwave passes, first from GPM at 1339 UTC, and then F-17 SSMIS at
1426 UTC. Both passes suggested that the inner core structure of
Dora could be rearranging some with concentric bands embedded in the
central dense overcast. On geostationary satellite, a tiny eye
signature keeps coming and going, more recently trying to become
better defined again as the surrounding cloud top temperatures have
cooled. Subjective intensity estimates of Dora were both 90 kt from
TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become more
distinct again, so the intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt for this
advisory. A helpful Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass received
this morning showed that Dora remains a very small hurricane, with
hurricane force winds only extending out 15 n mi from the center
with a tiny 5 n mi radius of maximum wind.

Dora's motion is essentially unchanged from this morning, still just
south of due west at 260/14 kt. A deep-layer ridge located to the
north of the hurricane is forecast to move with it, resulting in a
continued south of due west track through the entire forecast
period. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered near the
previous forecast track, and only slight adjustments were made for
this advisory, blending the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

While Dora appears to have paused its intensification this
afternoon, it might just be a short-term fluctuation, as the latest
few 1-min GOES-18 infrared images over Dora show the eye trying to
clear out again. While SHIPS-RII has decreased some, especially
compared to yesterday, DTOPS still indicates a 64 to 67 percent
chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. So
the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a 115 kt
peak intensity over the next day, higher than the consensus aids,
but still lower than both the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, sea-surface
temperatures begin to markedly decrease under the hurricane as
easterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase some. The
models respond to this less favorable environment by showing
weakening between 36-72 hours, and the latest official forecast
also shows this scenario. As mentioned previously, Dora's small
size could make it susceptible to rapid intensity changes, both up
or down, and the intensity forecast is of much lower confidence
than the track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 15.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 022048
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023

...TINY DORA A LITTLE STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 115.6W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 115.6 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected to continue over the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dora is forecast to become a major hurricane
overnight, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Friday.

Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds only
extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 022047
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 021442
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023

Dora continues to rapidly intensify this morning. Overnight infrared
and first-light visible satellite imagery indicates that Dora has a
small but tight inner core, with a pinhole eye starting to emerge
from the central dense overcast cirrus. An AMSR2 microwave pass at
850 UTC showed this tiny core structure well, though some residual
dry air was still noted between the inner core and the curved
banding on Dora's west side. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
were T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.5/77 kt form SAB, while the latest
objective ADT estimate was 84 kt. Given the improvement in structure
on satellite imagery since 1200 UTC, the initial intensity this
advisory is set at 90 kt, on the higher end of those estimates.

Dora continues to move just south of due west, at about 260/14 kt.
The track reasoning has not changed much over the past day, with a
well-established deep-layer ridge to the north of Dora expected to
steer the system westward to west-southwestward for most of the
forecast period. The latest NHC track continues to blend the simple
and corrected consensus aids (TVCE and HCCA), and is nearly on top
of the previous forecast track, if just a bit faster at the end of
the forecast period.

Dora is in the middle of a rapid intensification (RI) cycle, and
most of the guidance suggests that RI should continue for the next
12-24 h or so. Thus, the intensity forecast in the short-term was
raised again, now showing a peak of 115 kt in 24 h. This intensity
is just a little higher than the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, but
remains lower than the latest HAFS-A/B guidance. Afterwards, Dora's
small inner core could begin to undergo structural changes, such as
an eyewall replacement cycle. GFS-SHIPS guidance also shows easterly
shear increasing over the system as sea-surface temperatures
gradually decrease down to 27 C. A combo of these factors should
result in some gradual weakening, which is reflected in the latest
NHC intensity forecast beginning at 36 h, following the consensus
aids most closely. However, the small size of Dora could make the
system prone to more rapid intensity changes than reflected here.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 15.6N 114.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 15.4N 116.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 15.0N 119.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 14.6N 122.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 14.1N 125.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 13.7N 128.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 13.3N 131.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 12.7N 138.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 12.5N 145.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 021439
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023

...SMALL DORA CONTINUES RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 114.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 114.2 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dora is rapidly intensifying and is forecast to
become a major hurricane later today. Gradual weakening is forecast
to begin by the end of the week.

Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds only
extending outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center with
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 021438
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
1500 UTC WED AUG 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.4N 116.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 119.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.1N 125.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.7N 128.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.3N 131.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 12.7N 138.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 12.5N 145.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 114.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 020842
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 01 2023

Dora is still rapidly intensifying and is well on its way to
becoming a major hurricane. An eye is apparent in microwave
imagery and is beginning to show up in geostationary images as well.
The current intensity has been boosted to 80 kt in agreement with
the latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, which is an
increase of about 45 kt over the past 24 hours. The system remains
quite small, with a radius of maximum winds of 10 n mi or even less.
The cirrus-level outflow pattern is quite symmetric and well
defined.

Dora has been moving just slightly south of due west, or about
260/14 kt. A 500 mb ridge is well established to the north of the
hurricane, and global model guidance indicates that the ridge
should build westward over the next couple of days. This steering
scenario should result in a continued westward to
west-southwestward motion over most of the forecast period. The
NHC track forecast lies between the latest simple and corrected
consensus, TVCE and HCCA, guidance and is near or just a bit south
of the previous official forecast.

The hurricane is moving over ocean waters with SSTs above 29 deg C
and in an environment of weak vertical wind shear. All
indications are that the rapid intensification (RI) episode should
continue for at least the next 24 hours. This is supported by the
various RI indices, for example the Deterministic to Probabilistic
Statistical Model (DTOPS) which shows a 63 percent chance of RI for
today. One complicating factor for the intensity forecast is a
possible eyewall replacement cycle which could slow Dora's rate of
strengthening. In 48 hours or so, some increase in easterly shear
and a cooler waters are expected to induce gradual weakening. The
official intensity forecast is generally near the high end of the
model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 15.8N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 15.7N 114.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 14.8N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 14.4N 123.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 14.0N 126.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 12.9N 136.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 12.7N 142.6W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020841
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 01 2023

...DORA CONTINUES ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 112.6W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 112.6 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected, and
Dora could become a major hurricane later today.

Dora is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 020840
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0900 UTC WED AUG 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.6W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.6W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N 114.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 126.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 12.9N 136.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 12.7N 142.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 112.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 020235
TCDEP5

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Tue Aug 01 2023

Dora continues to improve structurally on GOES 1-min satellite, and
microwave imagery. An earlier AMSR microwave pass showed that Dora
has developed a tight inner core with a convective band wrapping
entirely around the center. The 36GHz microwave channel and visible
satellite also depict what probably is the developmental stages of a
tiny eye. Deep convection has persisted over the center, with cold
cloud tops throughout the afternoon. Subjective intensity estimates
from SAB and TAFB were T3.5 and T4.0, respectively. Objective
estimates from CIMMS AiDT and ADT range from 64 to 75 knots. Given
the improved satellite trends, system structure and a blend of the
various satellite estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 65
kt for this advisory. This makes Dora the fourth hurricane of the
eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The hurricane continues to move westward with a motion at 270/14 kt.
There is not much change in the track forecast as guidance continues
to be in good agreement. The large mid-level ridge north of the
system is expected to build north-northwest, which will steer Dora
westward with a gradual turn to the west-southwest tomorrow through
the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous one, and lies near the consensus aids.

Dora is rapidly intensifying this afternoon, with an increase of 35
kt the last 24 hours. Vertical wind shear remains low and
sea-surface temperatures are very warm for the next 36 hours, so
rapid intensification is forecast to continue during that time,
which is supported by the latest SHIPS-RII guidance from both the
ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast lies near the corrected
consensus guidance, HCCA, through the next 72 hours. Afterwards,
SSTs begin to drop down to 27 C and an increase in easterly shear
may lead to some gradual weakening. The intensity guidance this
cycle was much lower than the previous from 72 hours through the end
of the forecast period, and thus the intensity guidance was lowered
slightly through 120 hrs. The NHC forecast intensity is still higher
than the consensus aids during this time frame, which showed further
weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.2N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 15.8N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 15.5N 119.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 15.0N 122.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 14.4N 125.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.0N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 13.1N 134.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 12.7N 140.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Tue Aug 01 2023

...DORA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...NOW THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 111.5W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 111.5 West. Dora is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue with a gradual turn towards the west-southwest
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dora is rapidly intensifying and could become a major
hurricane tomorrow.

Dora is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 020234
TCMEP5

HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0300 UTC WED AUG 02 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.5W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.5W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 110.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.8N 116.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 119.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 122.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.4N 125.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.0N 128.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 13.1N 134.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 12.7N 140.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 012100
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.1N 112.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.9N 115.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 117.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 124.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 127.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 13.2N 133.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 12.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 110.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 012048
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Dora continues to become better organized this afternoon. The storm
has maintained a well-defined curved band in its eastern semicircle
as a cold central dense overcast has persisted near the center.
Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained unchanged
this afternoon, but we also received an ASCAT-B pass at 1728 UTC
which showed a peak-wind retrieval of 51 kt. Due to the very small
size of the wind field seen from this scatterometer pass, it is
quite possible this value may be undersampling the storm's maximum
sustained winds. Therefore, the intensity was nudged upward to 55 kt
for this advisory.

Dora might be starting to make a gradual leftward turn, with the
most recent estimated motion due west at 270/14 kt. There is not a
ton new to report for the track forecast this afternoon, with a
large mid-level ridge expected to build northwestward relative to
Dora. This evolution should result in Dora turning
west-southwestward beginning tomorrow and continuing through the end
of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good
agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one, in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
approach (HCCA).

So far, Dora shows little signs of pausing its intensification rate
this afternoon. Vertical wind shear remains very low (at or under 5
kt) and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) remain very warm (29 C or
warmer). Assuming dry air does not disrupt the small inner core that
has formed today, rapid intensification (RI) appears likely for the
next day or so. This expectation is supported by SHIPS-RII guidance
from both the ECMWF and GFS, which show a 74 percent chance of a 35
kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. These values are
12-13 times above its climatological mean. Therefore, the latest NHC
intensity forecast shows this rate of intensification over the next
day, ultimately peaking Dora as a 110-kt category 3 hurricane in 48
hours. This intensity forecast is not that far off the most recent
HCCA intensity aid but is still a bit lower than the latest HAFS-A/B
guidance. Thereafter, SSTs begin to drop down to 27 C and a modest
increase in easterly shear may lead to some gradual weakening.
Hard-to-predict inner core changes during this period may also
result in some intensity fluctuations, possibly larger than shown
here given how small Dora is forecast to remain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 16.1N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.1N 112.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15.9N 115.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.4N 117.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 14.5N 124.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 13.9N 127.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 13.2N 133.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 12.5N 139.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 012041
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023

...DORA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 110.1W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Dora is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a gradual turn towards the west-southwest
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next
24-36 hours and Dora could become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Dora is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward only up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 011441
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Dora is wasting no time getting better organized this morning and
may be in the initial stages of rapid intensification. The storm's
structure has improved, with a prominent cold curved band seen on
its northern semicircle rotating into a developing central dense
overcast near the estimated center is. An earlier F-18 SSMIS pass at
1058 UTC also suggested a formative inner core was taking shape.
Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.5/55 kt and
T3.0/45 kt respectively. The objective intensity estimates currently
have a large spread from 36-56 kt, depending on exactly where the
center is. Dora's initial intensity for this advisory is on the
higher side of those estimates at 50 kt.

Dora is moving just north of due west this morning at 280/14 kt. The
track philosophy has not changed much this cycle, with a large
mid-level ridge expected to build westward to the north and ahead of
Dora. This evolution should result in Dora maintaining its forward
motion as it begins a gradual turn to the west-southwest over the
next 2-3 days. The track guidance is ever so slightly faster than
the previous cycle, and the official forecast is a bit faster than
before, following a blend of the latest HCCA and TVCE consensus
aids.

All systems appear go for Dora to intensify a substantial amount
over the next several days. GFS SHIPS-derived shear is under 10 kt
for the entire forecast period, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs)
also remain above 28 C for at least the next 48 h. Dora is a small
tropical cyclone, which can be prone to rapid intensity changes. The
only factor that could prevent robust intensification in the short
term is dry air entrainment disrupting the formative inner core.
With that said, rapid intensification (RI) indices have sharply
increased, with DTOPS now indicating a 70 percent chance of RI over
the next 24 hours. Given this guidance, the official forecast will
now explicitly show RI over the next 24-36 h, with a higher peak
intensity, taking Dora to major hurricane intensity in the next 48
hours. This part of the intensity forecast is in best agreement with
the latest HCCA intensity aid, but remains lower than the latest
HAFS-A/B runs. Towards the end of the forecast period, Dora will
begin exploring cooler 26-27 C SSTs along its track, which may
initiate some gradual weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 16.1N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.2N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.0N 113.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 15.6N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 15.0N 119.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 14.5N 122.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 13.9N 125.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 13.1N 131.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 12.5N 137.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 011440
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023

...DORA QUICKLY INTENSIFYING...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 108.6W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 108.6 West. Dora is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a gradual turn
towards the west-southwest is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next
24-36 hours and Dora could become a major hurricane towards the
latter half of this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 011439
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.2N 110.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.0N 113.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 119.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 122.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 125.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 13.1N 131.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 12.5N 137.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 010844
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Deep convection has increased near the estimated center of the
tropical cyclone, but convective banding features are not yet well
defined. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and
SAB are now at 35 kt and data from a recent scatterometer overpass
also supports tropical storm strength. Thus the system is being
named, making it the fourth tropical storm of this rather
slow-starting eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Dora is a
fairly compact system, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending 40 n mi or less from the center.

The storm's motion is a slightly faster 290/14 kt. The mid-level
subtropical ridge that is currently to the north of Dora is
forecast by the global models to build westward over the next
several days. This should cause the tropical storm or hurricane to
turn westward to west-southwestward during the next 24 to 60 hours.
Later in the forecast period, Dora should move generally westward
on the south side of the subtropical high. The official forecast
is slightly faster than the previous one but not quite as fast as
the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, track guidance.

Dora is expected to be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment
that will be quite conducive for intensification during the next 72
hours or so. A large upper-tropospheric anticyclone should
dominate the area, leading to low vertical shear. This, along
with SSTs of 28-29 deg C, and a fairly moist mid-level air mass
should result in significant strengthening of the cyclone. The
SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance shows a greater than
normal likelihood of RI, but it is difficult to specify when this
may occur. The official forecast calls, perhaps conservatively,
for Dora to approach major hurricane status later in the week.
This prediction is a blend of the corrected and simple intensity
model consensus guidance, IVCN and HCCA. The regional hurricane
models, HAFS and HWRF, indicate that Dora could be stronger than
shown here.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 16.0N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 16.2N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.1N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 15.8N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 15.3N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 14.7N 120.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 14.2N 123.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 13.3N 129.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 13.0N 135.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 010842
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 01 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DORA...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 107.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 107.1 West. Dora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is expected
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to possibly rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Dora is expected to become a hurricane on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 010842
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.1W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.1W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 109.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.8N 114.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.3N 117.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.7N 120.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 123.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 13.3N 129.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 13.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 010243
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Tropical Depression Five-E is starting to become a little better
organized this evening. Microwave AMSR and SSMIS passes showed that
the center of the system has banding features over the northern and
eastern side, with deep convection bursting from time to time.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both
T2.0/30-kt on this advisory cycle. Given these estimates, the
initial intensity remains at 30 kt.

The initial motion of the depression is 290/12 kt. A mid-level
subtropical ridge is located to the north of the system and is
expected to continue to steer the cyclone generally westward. The
ridge may strengthen some towards the end of the week, causing a
south of west motion. The track guidance is fairly tightly
clustered, and the forward speed of the corrected consensus
guidance, HCCA, is now closer to the rest of the forecast aids this
cycle. The NHC track is very similar to the previous forecast, with
a slightly faster forward motion.

The system is in an environment that appears favorable for
intensification over the next few days. Vertical wind shear will
remain low throughout the forecast period with warm sea-surface
temperatures during the next several days. The cyclone is forecast
to quickly intensify with a relatively small convective core.
Intensity guidance has increased this cycle with SHIPS, HCCA, and
the hurricane regional models showing significant strengthening
over the next 24-72 hours. While a period of rapid intensification
is becoming more likely during the next few days, it is difficult
to pin down an exact time frame of when that may occur right now.
The intensity forecast was raised from the previous advisory to
account for some of the higher guidance this cycle, but still lies
below the HCCA and most of the hurricane regional models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 15.5N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.9N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.9N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 15.6N 112.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 15.2N 115.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 14.7N 118.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.2N 121.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 13.3N 126.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 12.9N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 010243
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 105.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 105.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn
to the west-southwest by the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and
the system could become a hurricane by the middle of the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 010243
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 104.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.9N 107.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.9N 110.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.6N 112.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.2N 115.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.7N 118.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.2N 121.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 13.3N 126.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 12.9N 132.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 105.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 312041
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Through this morning and afternoon, the system we have been
monitoring several hundred miles offshore to the south of the coast
of Mexico has improved in organization on satellite imagery, with
plenty of curved convective bands along its northern semicircle. A
couple of bulls-eye ASCAT passes earlier this afternoon indicated
that a closed circulation had formed at the surface, with believable
25-30 kt winds on its northern flank. We also received a subjective
Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.0/30-kt from TAFB this afternoon.
The aforementioned data supports initiating advisories on the system
as a tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt.

The initial motion of the depression is north of due west at 280/12
kt. A prominent mid-level subtropical ridge is located poleward of
the cyclone and is expected to move westward with the system
throughout the forecast period. The orientation of the ridge ahead
of the system may even result in a west-southwestward motion by the
middle to latter part of this week. The track guidance is in fairly
good agreement, especially for a system that has only recently
formed, though some speed differences exist towards the end of the
forecast period. The initial NHC track forecast has opted to remain
close to the reliable consensus aids, roughly in between the faster
HCCA and slower TVCE guidance.

Environmental conditions appear quite favorable for intensification
over the next few days. Both the GFS- and EC-based SHIPS guidance
shows deep-layer vertical wind shear remaining 10 kt or below
throughout the forecast period as sea-surface temperatures
underneath the system remain above 28 C for the next 3 days. While
there will likely be some mid-level dry air lurking near the system
during this time-span, this may not harm the cyclone as much as
just keeping its convective core small. In fact, most of the
hurricane-regional models show the system significantly intensifying
as a small tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The NHC
intensity forecast follows this evolution, with significant
intensification expected, especially between 36-72 h after the
system has an opportunity to develop an inner core that takes better
advantage of the favorable conditions. A period of rapid
intensification during this time frame is also possible. This
initial intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS
guidance this cycle, and is roughly a split between the higher
HWRF/HMON and lower HAFS-A/B runs.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 14.8N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 15.5N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 15.8N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.5N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 15.1N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 14.3N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 13.3N 125.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 12.7N 130.9W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 312038
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC...
...FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 104.4W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to
west-southwestward by the middle portion of this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the
system could become a hurricane by the middle part of this week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 312036
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023
2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 104.4W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 104.4W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.5N 106.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N 111.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.3N 119.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 13.3N 125.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 12.7N 130.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 104.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.