Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for EUGENE-23
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 24.9N 119.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 119.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.7N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.3N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.0N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.8N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 120.5W.
07AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (EUGENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
489 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 1008
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (DORA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 072036
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Eugene has not had any organized deep convection for over 12 hours
now, and since it is over very cold water, no further thunderstorm
activity is anticipated. Thus, Eugene has transitioned into a
post-tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory. The
initial wind speed is reduced to 30 kt, in accordance with the
remaining Dvorak estimates. The system should gradually spin down
and become a trough of low pressure in about 2 days. The remnants
of Eugene should turn northward tomorrow into a break in the
low- level ridge and slow down as it gets caught in weak steering
flow. No significant changes were made to the NHC track or
intensity forecasts.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 25.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 08/0600Z 25.7N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z 26.3N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0600Z 27.0N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1800Z 27.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 072035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 07 2023

...EUGENE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 120.4W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene
was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 120.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 14
mph (22 km/h). Eugene is forecast to slow down today and turn
northward tomorrow through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours before the
remnant low dissipates.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 072035
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023
2100 UTC MON AUG 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 120.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 120.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.7N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.3N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.0N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 27.8N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 120.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 071432
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Eugene has lacked deep convection for at least 7 hours now. Since
the tropical storm is moving over waters of 23 deg C or cooler,
redevelopment of convection is not expected, and it will likely be
classified as a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon. The initial
intensity has been lowered to 40 kt, based on the assumption that
the winds have decreased since the last advisory with no deep
convection to sustain the cyclone, and this could be generous.
Additional weakening appears inevitable, and Eugene is forecast to
dissipate by mid-week.

Eugene continues to move west-northwestward, steered by a strong
low- to mid-level ridge to its northeast. Eugene will likely slow
down significantly by tonight while it weakens, and turn northward
through mid-week. No changes of note were made to the NHC track
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 24.5N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 25.3N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1200Z 26.1N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0000Z 26.6N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1200Z 27.4N 122.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 071430
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 07 2023

...EUGENE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 118.8W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 118.8 West. The tropical
storm is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h).
Eugene is forecast to slow down today and turn northward tomorrow
through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated, and Eugene will
likely become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 071430
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023
1500 UTC MON AUG 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 118.8W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 118.8W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.3N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.1N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.6N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.4N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 23.6N 116.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 116.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.8N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.7N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.3N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.9N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 117.2W.
07AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 549
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (DORA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 070832
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Deep convection has been withering away, and Eugene is getting
closer to becoming a post-tropical cyclone. Even though the system
is producing a minimal amount of convection, an ASCAT-B pass
indicated that there is still a considerable area of
tropical-storm-force winds near the center. The maximum winds in
the pass were in the 40-45 kt range, and based on that data, the
initial intensity is nudged downward to 45 kt. This intensity value
is higher than the Dvorak estimates.

Eugene is currently over cool 24 degree C waters and is headed over
progressively cooler waters during the next few days. These
unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with dry air and moderate
shear should cause the storm to continue to steadily weaken.
Eugene is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 12 to 24
hours and dissipate entirely in 2 to 3 days.

Eugene is moving quickly to the west-northwest at 18 kt on the
southwest side of a strong mid-level ridge. This motion should
continue today, but a significant slow down and turn to the north
are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge breaks down.
The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the
various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 23.9N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 24.8N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 25.7N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1800Z 26.3N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0600Z 26.9N 122.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 070831
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 07 2023

...EUGENE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 116.9W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 116.9 West. Eugene is
moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue today. A significant slow down
and turn to the north are forecast to occur on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Eugene is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 070831
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023
0900 UTC MON AUG 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 116.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 116.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.8N 119.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.7N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.3N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.9N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 116.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 23.0N 114.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 114.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.3N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.3N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.1N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.8N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.5N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 115.3W.
07AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 602
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z,
071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (DORA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 070233
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Deep convection associated with Eugene has been decreasing as the
cyclone begins to move over cooler waters. There is
significant uncertainty in the current intensity of the storm,
which is set at 50 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates. Given the diminishing convection, this may be a
generous estimate, however.

Eugene continues to move briskly toward the west-northwest with an
initial motion estimate of 295/17 kt. A pronounced weakness in the
mid-level subtropical ridge along 120W-125W should cause the
cyclone to slow down considerably in 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter
Eugene is likely to turn northward into the weakness, and by 48-60
hours, the system should drift slowly as the steering currents
collapse. The official track forecast follows the corrected
multi-model consensus, HCCA, and is quite similar to the previous
NHC prediction.

The cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler waters and
into an increasingly drier air mass. Thus Eugene should continue
to weaken and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure
system in 36 hours, or sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is close
to the model consensus, IVCN. Given the recent decay of
convection, however, the system could weaken even faster than
shown here.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 23.3N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 24.3N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 25.3N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 26.1N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0000Z 26.8N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/1200Z 27.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 070233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 06 2023

...EUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 115.0W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 115.0 West. Eugene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
motion should continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn
to the north and a sharp reduction in forward speed. Eugene should
continue moving farther away from Baja California Sur.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eugene is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Eugene will affect portions of the coasts
of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 070232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023
0300 UTC MON AUG 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 115.0W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 115.0W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N 117.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.3N 120.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.1N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.8N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 115.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 112.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 112.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.7N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.9N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.7N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.5N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.0N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 113.5W.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070400Z,
071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (DORA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 062032
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Eugene is sending some mixed signals this afternoon. While earlier
a possible eye feature was present on the visible imagery, the
feature has weakened and become part of a ragged central dense
overcast. Overall, the system doesn't seem much different than the
last advisory, so 60 kt is maintained on this cycle. The Dvorak
estimate ranges are quite large, with estimates of 40-65 kt, so
the initial wind is a bit more uncertain than average.

The storm should begin to weaken overnight as it crosses a tight
sea-surface temperature gradient, with very cold waters along the
forecast track within 24 h. By early Tuesday, Eugene should
transition to a non-convective post-tropical low, consistent with
the stable environment and the latest global model infrared
satellite forecasts. The new NHC forecast is slightly lower than
the last one, between the model consensus and the NOAA
corrected-consensus prediction.

Eugene is moving along pretty quickly to the west-northwest at
about 17 kt. This motion should continue for about a day until it
reaches the edge of the subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a
weaker cyclone should slow down and turn northward toward a
weakness in the ridge. However, the very hostile environment should
cause what's left of Eugene to stall well west of Baja California
and degenerate to a trough in about 3 days. The latest NHC track
is basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern
Pacific track consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.7N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.7N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 24.9N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 25.7N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 08/1800Z 26.5N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 062031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023

...EUGENE MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 113.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 113.2 West. Eugene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
motion should continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn
to the north and a sharp reduction in forward speed. Eugene should
continue moving farther away from Baja California Sur.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, followed by
steady weakening likely starting on Monday. Eugene could become a
post-tropical cyclone late on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Eugene will affect portions of the coasts
of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 062031
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.2W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.2W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.7N 115.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.9N 118.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.7N 121.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 21.4N 110.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 110.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.9N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.2N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.2N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.0N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.0N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.0N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 111.7W.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 759
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
061200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 061446
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Eugene is on the verge of becoming a hurricane this morning.
Scatterometer data from overnight indicated that the maximum winds
were 55-60 kt, and a GMI microwave pass now shows the development of
a partial eyewall. The storm isn't as impressive on conventional
satellite imagery, however, with the central dense overcast
weakening during the past several hours. Intensity estimates range
from 45-60 kt, and 60 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed, based
on the improved microwave structure and overnight scatterometer
data.

The storm has today to strengthen in marginally conducive
conditions before it crosses over very cool waters overnight.
Eugene should weaken steadily on Monday and Tuesday due to the lack
of instability over the cool waters. Most of the guidance shows
Eugene losing deep convection in 36-48 hours over sub-23C waters,
so post-tropical status is moved up to day 2 in this forecast. No
significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, which
remains close to the intensity consensus.

Microwave data show that Eugene is moving faster to the west-
northwest at about 16 kt. This general motion is anticipated with
some reduction in forward speed during the next day or two while the
storm moves on the southern side of a mid-level ridge. Eugene
should reach the western periphery of the ridge on Tuesday, which
will cause the weakening system to turn and move more slowly
northward. Model guidance has trended westward on this advisory,
and the official forecast follows the trend at longer range. The
global models degenerate the system into a trough in 3-4 days.

Eugene will likely produce areas of heavy rains and gusty winds
across southern portions of the Baja California Sur today as it
passes to the south of the peninsula. Interests there should
monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 21.8N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.9N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 24.2N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 25.2N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 26.0N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 09/0000Z 27.0N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z 28.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 061445
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023

...EUGENE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 111.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 111.5 West. Eugene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion should continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track,
Eugene should pass to the south of the southern portion of the Baja
California Sur today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eugene could become a hurricane later today
before weakening starts on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer edges of the rainfall from Eugene may produce
storm total amounts of 1 to 2 inches across the southern portion of
Baja California Sur.

SURF: Swells generated by Eugene will affect portions of the coasts
of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely across the southern portion of Baja
California Sur today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 061444
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.5W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 111.5W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 113.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.2N 117.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.2N 119.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.0N 121.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.0N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 109.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 109.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.2N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.3N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.4N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.3N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.3N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.1N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.1N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 110.1W.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS
994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z. REFER TO
HURRICANE 05E (DORA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 060841
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Eugene continues to steadily strengthen. An ASCAT-C pass from a few
hours ago showed peak winds around 50 kt, and the initial intensity
is increased to 55 kt since that instrument often is unable to
resolve the peak winds. This intensity value is higher than the
current satellite intensity estimates. The cloud pattern of Eugene
resembles a central dense overcast with the deepest convection near
the estimated center. Eugene is about 120 n mi south of Cabo San
Lucas and it could get a little closer to that area later this
morning before pulling away late today. It should be noted that
Eugene is a relatively small tropical storm, with its 34-kt wind
radii currently extending no more than 60 n mi from the center.

The storm continues to move northwestward, or 315 degrees, at about
12 kt. Eugene should turn to the west-northwest later today and
continue in that direction through Monday as it moves in the flow on
the south side of a fairly strong mid-level ridge. By early
Tuesday, however, the western portion of the ridge is expected to
erode due to an approaching shortwave trough. In response, Eugene
is forecast to slow down and turn northward or northeastward during
the middle part of the week. The NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous one and lies near the northern edge of the model
guidance in the short term, in best agreement with the HCCA model.

Since Eugene will be over warm waters for another 12 hours or so,
continued strengthening is forecast, and Eugene is now predicted to
become a hurricane later today. However, by tonight, the system
will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier air
mass, which should end the strengthening trend and promote a steady
decay. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
previous one during the next couple of days, but falls in line with
the old forecast after that. Eugene is still expected to become a
remnant low over cool 20 degree C waters in about 60 hours and
dissipate in 4 to 5 days.

Eugene will likely produce areas of heavy rains and gusty winds
across southern portions of the Baja California Sur today as it
passes to the south of the peninsula. Interests there should
monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 20.9N 109.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.3N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 24.4N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 25.3N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 26.3N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 27.1N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z 29.1N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060840
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 06 2023

...EUGENE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...
...GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 109.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 109.9 West. Eugene is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected later today, and that motion should
continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Eugene should pass
to the south of the southern portion of the Baja California Sur
today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is expected and
Eugene could become a hurricane later today. Weakening should
begin by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer edges of the rainfall pattern from Eugene may
produce storm total amounts of 1 to 2 inches along sections of the
southwestern Mexican states of Sinaloa, Jalisco, Nayarit, and
the southern portion of Baja California Sur.

SURF: Swells generated by Eugene will affect portions of the coasts
of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely across the southern portion of Baja
California Sur today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 060840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023
0900 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.9W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.9W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 115.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.4N 118.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.3N 120.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.3N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.1N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.1N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 108.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 108.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.4N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.8N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.1N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.2N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.0N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.7N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.4N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 109.1W.
06AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 917
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (DORA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 060243
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Eugene has strengthened this evening. Deep convection has increased
near and over the center of the system during the past several
hours, with more pronounced convective banding over the southeastern
portion of the circulation. Additionally, earlier AMSR2 and SSMIS
passive microwave data showed some evidence of a formative inner
core trying to take shape. The various 00 UTC objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates ranged from 35-55 kt. Given
the overall improved convective structure of Eugene, the initial
intensity is raised to 45 kt based on a blend of these data.

The tropical storm has a brief window to intensity over very warm
(29-30C) SSTs before the environment becomes increasingly hostile.
Deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen later on Sunday, and soon
thereafter Eugene will encounter a drier and more stable airmass
while moving over progressively cooler SSTs. The updated NHC
intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak (55 kt) in 12-24 h
that is supported by the latest intensity consensus aids, followed
by steady weakening through early next week. Eugene could become
completely devoid of convection in 60 h based on simulated satellite
imagery from the global and hurricane models. Therefore, the NHC
forecast shows Eugene degenerating to a remnant low early Tuesday
and dissipating by the end of the forecast period.

The initial motion remains northwestward at 310/13 kt. Eugene is
expected to turn west-northwestward over the next day or two while
being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. Later in the
forecast period, a shortwave trough approaching the U.S. West Coast
will produce a break in the subtropical ridge. This will result in
weaker steering currents that should cause the shallow cyclone to
slow down before eventually turning more northward and dissipating
over cooler waters. The updated NHC forecast shows a slightly faster
forward speed in agreement with the latest HCCA and TVCE aids, but
otherwise is very similar to the previous issuance. While the risk
of tropical-storm-force winds for the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula remains low based on this forecast, interests
there should continue to monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 20.0N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 21.4N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 22.8N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 24.1N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 25.2N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 26.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z 28.4N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060241
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023

...EUGENE STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 108.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 108.8 West. Eugene is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through early Sunday,
followed by weakening early next week. Eugene is forecast to
degenerate to a remnant low by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer edges of the rainfall pattern from Eugene may
produce storm total amounts of 1 to 2 inches along sections of the
southwestern Mexican states of Sinaloa, Jalisco, Nayarit, and
the southern portion of Baja California Sur.

SURF: Swells generated by Eugene will affect portions of the coasts
of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day
or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 060241
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 108.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N 110.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N 113.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 116.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.2N 119.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 28.4N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 107.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 107.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.5N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.0N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.4N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.6N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.6N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.2N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.5N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 107.9W.
05AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 06E (EUGENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 995
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 80518Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (DORA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 052038
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023

This afternoon's satellite presentation of the system has improved,
with a well-developed curved band in its eastern semicircle and a
recent burst of deep convection with -75 Celsius cloud tops just
east of the surface circulation. Based on this and a consensus of
the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the system is being
upgraded to Tropical Storm Eugene, making it the fifth tropical
storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Although dry mid-tropospheric air originating from mainland Mexico
may be negatively affecting the cyclone's intensification rate, as
indicated by the presence of a few arc clouds, a brief window of
opportunity still exists for further strengthening during the next
day or so. By mid-period, Eugene is expected to move over the
cooler water west of the Baja California peninsula and enter a
surrounding dry and stable marine-layer air mass. The NHC forecast
calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours, or
sooner, and dissipation in 5 days which is slightly below the Decay
SHIPS statistical guidance, but close to the LGEM and the usually
reliable intensity consensus guidance.

The initial estimated motion is northwestward or 315/13 kt. The
track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, and Eugene should move
generally northwestward in the short term within the southeasterly
mid-level steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge to the
north. By 48 hours, the vertically shallow cyclone should turn
toward the west-northwest in the lower boundary trade wind flow
while a reduction in forward speed takes place, possibly meandering
before dissipating next week. The updated NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous official forecast and lies near the
various consensus models. Although the track forecast is currently
off the southwestern coast of Mexico, enough uncertainty still
exists that interests in the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 19.2N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.4N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 24.6N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 25.6N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z 27.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 052036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eugene Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 107.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eugene was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.7 West. Eugene is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
should continue through the weekend followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days. Afterward, weakening is expected and the cyclone should
quickly become a remnant low in 3 days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Eugene will remain mostly
off the southwest Mexican coast. The outer edges of rainfall from
the depression may produce 1 to 2 inches of rain along the coastal
sections of the southwestern Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco,
Nayarit and the southern portion of Baja California Sur.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 052036
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023
2100 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 115.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.6N 118.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.6N 120.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 051434
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023

During the past several hours, the area of low pressure the National
Hurricane Center has been monitoring offshore the southwestern coast
of Mexico has gradually become better organized on GOES-18 satellite
imagery. Additionally, overnight microwave images indicated
improved curved banding over the south and east portions of the
cyclone. Based on the overall improvement of the system's cloud
pattern and Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E.

Modest strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours or so
while the cyclone remains over warm oceanic surface temperatures;
however, moderate northeasterly shear is impinging on the north
semicircle of the system. By early next week, the depression
should weaken rather quickly as it traverses a sharp decreasing sea
surface temperature gradient and moves into a more stable air mass.
The official forecast is based on a compromise of the HFIP, HCCA,
and the IVCN intensity models. The majority of the guidance,
including the global models, indicates the cyclone degenerating to
a remnant low in 3 days, if not sooner.

The initial motion is somewhat uncertain but is estimated to be
northwestward or 310/12 kt. The depression is located south of a
subtropical ridge extending from the Southern Plains of the United
States to the Baja California peninsula and eastern Pacific offshore
waters. This mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone toward the
northwest during the next day or so. Afterward, global models show
the western portion of the ridge eroding in response to a major
shortwave trough approaching the west coast of the United States.
As a result, the depression should turn toward the west-northwest
with a gradual reduction in forward speed early next week. The NHC
track forecast lies near the HCCA and TVCE multi-model aids and
between the GFS and ECMWF global models. Although the track
forecast is currently off the southwestern coast of Mexico, enough
uncertainty still exists that interests in the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 18.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 19.4N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 21.0N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.2N 113.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 23.4N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 24.4N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 25.0N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z 25.6N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 051433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062023
900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 106.8W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 106.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and
this motion should continue through the weekend following by a turn
toward the west-northwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today
or tonight. Afterward, weakening is expected and the cyclone should
quickly become a remnant low in 3 days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches are possible along the
coastal sections of the southwestern Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, Nayarit, Jalisco and the southern portion of Baja California
Sur. These rainfall amounts may produce isolated flash flooding and
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 051433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062023
1500 UTC SAT AUG 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.8W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.8W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.4N 108.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.0N 110.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 113.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.4N 116.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.4N 119.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.6N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 106.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>