Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FERNANDA-23
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 171450
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023

Fernanda has lacked convective activity since yesterday evening and
is therefore considered a post-tropical cyclone. With no
convective activity, Dvorak estimates are no longer a reliable
source for intensity guidance. The initial intensity is lowered to
30 kt for this advisory largely based on the trend in geostationary
satellite imagery. An occasional burst of convection is still
possible given 25-26 degrees C sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track of Fernanda. Model guidance indicates the cyclone
will continue to weaken in an increasingly dry and stable
environment for the next few days and is likely to dissipate by
day 3.

The remnant low is moving westward at 13 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days as the system is
steered by the low-level flow around a ridge to its north.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Those
forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.4N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 18/0000Z 16.4N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 16.4N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 20/0000Z 16.4N 144.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 171450
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023

...FERNANDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 132.2W
ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Fernanda was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 132.2 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Fernanda is likely to dissipate by the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 171449
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 132.2W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 132.2W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 131.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.4N 134.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.4N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 144.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 132.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATION WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 170857
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

Fernanda appears unlikely to remain a tropical cyclone for much
longer. While it produced some sheared bursts of convection to the
west of its exposed center earlier tonight, the storm is currently
devoid of any convective activity. If this persists, Fernanda could
be declared a post-tropical cyclone later this morning. There have
been no recent scatterometer passes over the storm, so the intensity
of Fernanda remains quite uncertain. Assuming a continued spin down
of the vortex, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 35 kt.
This is in best agreement with the 06 UTC Dvorak final-T number from
TAFB and the latest UW-CIMSS objective satellite estimates.

Fernanda is moving westward at 265/13 kt. This general motion will
continue for the next few days as the cyclone moves along the
southern extent of a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The
thermodynamic environment along Fernanda's forecast track will
become more unfavorable for sustained organized convection as the
cyclone moves over sub-26C waters with dry, stable air in the
surrounding environment. Thus, the NHC forecast shows degeneration
to a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday with continued weakening
into this weekend. With the latest guidance in good agreement, no
notable changes were made to the official NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 16.6N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.5N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0600Z 16.4N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 16.4N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 16.4N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1800Z 16.4N 143.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 170856
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

...FERNANDA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 130.8W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 130.8 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Fernanda is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Thursday and dissipate by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 170855
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
0900 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.8W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.8W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.5N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.4N 135.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.4N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.4N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 130.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 170238
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

Fernanda has refused to give in to the increasingly inhibiting
environment and has recently produced a fragmented band with
associated -63 degree Celsius cloud top temperatures in the
west quadrant of the cyclone. Assuming, however, that the
new burst is insufficient to maintain Fernanda's previous advisory
intensity of 45 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.

Cooler oceanic temperatures (sub 26C) and an very dry, stable
marine-layer air mass should result in continued weakening. Fernanda
is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours,
with dissipation occurring this weekend.

The initial motion is estimated to be just south of due west, or
265/13 kt. There has been no change to the forecast track
philosophy. A subtropical ridge should remain anchored to the north
of Fernanda during the next few days. Accordingly, Fernanda is
forecast to move generally westward through the period. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, and only a slight along-track
adjustment was needed for the latest NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 16.7N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 16.6N 131.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 18/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 16.5N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1200Z 16.5N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 170237
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

...FERNANDA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 129.4W
ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 129.4 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Fernanda is likely to become a post-tropical
cyclone tonight or Thursday and dissipate by the weekend.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 170237
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 129.4W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 129.4W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 128.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 131.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 139.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 129.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 162034
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

Fernanda's weakening trend appears to be continuing. Deep
convection remains minimal, and is confined to a few cells over the
southwestern portion of the circulation while the system moves over
marginal SSTs and into a dry low- to mid-level air mass. There have
been no recent scatterometer overpasses from which to estimate
intensity. Assuming a continued spin down of the circulation, the
advisory intensity is set to a somewhat uncertain 45 kt.

The cyclone has been moving just slightly south of due west or
260/12 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain established to
the north of Fernanda through 72 hours. This should maintain a
mostly westward track for the next few days. There is little
change to the new official track forecast, which remains close to
the multi-model dynamical consensus.

Sea surface temperatures beneath the cyclone should gradually
decrease and the environmental air mass is expected to become even
drier over the next couple of days. Therefore, continued weakening
is expected which should result in Fernanda degenerating into a
post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours and dissipating within 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 16.8N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.6N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 17/1800Z 16.6N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 16.7N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 16.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0600Z 16.7N 140.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 162033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

...FERNANDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 127.8W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 127.8 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Fernanda is likely to become a post-tropical
cyclone by tonight and dissipate by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 162032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 127.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 127.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 127.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.6N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.6N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 135.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.7N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 140.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 127.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 161612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 16.08.2023

TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 150.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2023 0 11.7N 150.7W 1002 41
0000UTC 17.08.2023 12 12.2N 153.0W 1003 38
1200UTC 17.08.2023 24 12.2N 155.4W 1006 32
0000UTC 18.08.2023 36 12.0N 158.0W 1007 31
1200UTC 18.08.2023 48 11.7N 160.8W 1008 28
0000UTC 19.08.2023 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 102.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2023 0 12.8N 102.1W 1002 35
0000UTC 17.08.2023 12 14.0N 104.6W 999 40
1200UTC 17.08.2023 24 14.7N 108.0W 997 39
0000UTC 18.08.2023 36 15.1N 110.4W 995 43
1200UTC 18.08.2023 48 16.0N 112.5W 992 49
0000UTC 19.08.2023 60 17.2N 114.3W 990 50
1200UTC 19.08.2023 72 19.0N 115.8W 989 45
0000UTC 20.08.2023 84 19.8N 117.2W 987 45
1200UTC 20.08.2023 96 22.2N 117.8W 988 40
0000UTC 21.08.2023 108 24.2N 118.1W 991 37
1200UTC 21.08.2023 120 26.8N 119.1W 995 35
0000UTC 22.08.2023 132 29.1N 120.0W 999 30
1200UTC 22.08.2023 144 31.4N 121.7W 1001 27
0000UTC 23.08.2023 156 33.1N 123.3W 1002 25
1200UTC 23.08.2023 168 35.0N 123.9W 1006 25

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 126.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2023 0 16.9N 126.4W 987 50
0000UTC 17.08.2023 12 16.6N 129.1W 993 44
1200UTC 17.08.2023 24 16.5N 132.0W 999 38
0000UTC 18.08.2023 36 16.7N 134.8W 1002 32
1200UTC 18.08.2023 48 16.9N 137.8W 1005 30
0000UTC 19.08.2023 60 17.2N 140.8W 1007 26
1200UTC 19.08.2023 72 17.3N 144.1W 1008 26
0000UTC 20.08.2023 84 17.4N 147.6W 1008 24
1200UTC 20.08.2023 96 17.7N 150.9W 1009 27
0000UTC 21.08.2023 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.7N 32.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2023 60 16.9N 33.4W 1008 35
1200UTC 19.08.2023 72 17.2N 34.0W 1007 37
0000UTC 20.08.2023 84 18.6N 35.7W 1007 35
1200UTC 20.08.2023 96 19.4N 38.3W 1007 31
0000UTC 21.08.2023 108 20.5N 41.3W 1008 28
1200UTC 21.08.2023 120 21.4N 43.5W 1009 25
0000UTC 22.08.2023 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.2N 59.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2023 96 16.7N 60.2W 1005 34
0000UTC 21.08.2023 108 17.3N 62.1W 1005 35
1200UTC 21.08.2023 120 18.4N 64.4W 1004 36
0000UTC 22.08.2023 132 19.8N 65.4W 1004 40
1200UTC 22.08.2023 144 21.2N 67.5W 1004 45
0000UTC 23.08.2023 156 22.2N 67.5W 1003 41
1200UTC 23.08.2023 168 24.5N 68.2W 1004 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 12.1N 20.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2023 168 12.1N 20.3W 1006 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161612

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 161612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.08.2023

TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 150.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2023 11.7N 150.7W WEAK
00UTC 17.08.2023 12.2N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2023 12.2N 155.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2023 12.0N 158.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 11.7N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 102.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2023 12.8N 102.1W WEAK
00UTC 17.08.2023 14.0N 104.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2023 14.7N 108.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2023 15.1N 110.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 16.0N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 17.2N 114.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2023 19.0N 115.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2023 19.8N 117.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2023 22.2N 117.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 24.2N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2023 26.8N 119.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2023 29.1N 120.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2023 31.4N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2023 33.1N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2023 35.0N 123.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 126.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2023 16.9N 126.4W MODERATE
00UTC 17.08.2023 16.6N 129.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.08.2023 16.5N 132.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2023 16.7N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 16.9N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 17.2N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2023 17.3N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2023 17.4N 147.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2023 17.7N 150.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.7N 32.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.08.2023 16.9N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2023 17.2N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2023 18.6N 35.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2023 19.4N 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 20.5N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2023 21.4N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.2N 59.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.08.2023 16.7N 60.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 17.3N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2023 18.4N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2023 19.8N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2023 21.2N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2023 22.2N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2023 24.5N 68.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 12.1N 20.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2023 12.1N 20.3W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161612

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 161522 CCA
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

Corrected time of dissipation

Fernanda's rapid weakening continues, and there is little if any
deep convection remaining in association with the system. Given the
lack of convection, it is difficult to estimate the current
intensity of the cyclone via the Dvorak satellite technique.
However assuming a fairly rapid spin down, the current intensity is
set to 55 kt for this advisory, with a significant amount of
uncertainty.

The storm has turned a little to the left and the current motion is
just slightly south of due west, or 260/13 kt. The steering pattern
is expected to be fairly straightforward with a mid-level ridge
established the north of the cyclone. This should result in a
continued westward motion for the next few days. The official track
forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus
guidance.

Fernanda is crossing the SST gradient and should be moving over
progressively cooler waters. Therefore, the system is not likely to
regenerate sustained deep convection, and continued rapid weakening
is likely. The cyclone should drop below tropical storm strength
tomorrow and weaken to dissipation in 96 hours if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.1N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.9N 128.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.9N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 16.9N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 17.0N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 17.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 17.0N 142.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 161520
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
1500 UTC WED AUG 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.8W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.8W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 126.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.9N 128.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.9N 131.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 134.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 142.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 126.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 161511
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

Fernanda's rapid weakening continues, and there is little if any
deep convection remaining in association with the system. Given the
lack of convection, it is difficult to estimate the current
intensity of the cyclone via the Dvorak satellite technique.
However assuming a fairly rapid spin down, the current intensity is
set to 55 kt for this advisory, with a significant amount of
uncertainty.

The storm has turned a little to the left and the current motion is
just slightly south of due west, or 260/13 kt. The steering pattern
is expected to be fairly straightforward with a mid-level ridge
established the north of the cyclone. This should result in a
continued westward motion for the next few days. The official track
forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus
guidance.

Fernanda is crossing the SST gradient and should be moving over
progressively cooler waters. Therefore, the system is not likely to
regenerate sustained deep convection, and continued rapid weakening
is likely. The cyclone should drop below tropical storm strength
tomorrow and weaken to dissipation in 72 hours if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.1N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.9N 128.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.9N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 16.9N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 17.0N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 17.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 17.0N 142.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 161445
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

Fernanda's rapid weakening continues, and there is little if any
deep convection remaining in association with the system. Given the
lack of convection, it is difficult to estimate the current
intensity of the cyclone via the Dvorak satellite technique.
However assuming a fairly rapid spin down, the current intensity is
set to 55 kt for this advisory, with a significant amount of
uncertainty.

The storm has turned a little to the left and the current motion is
just slightly south of due west, or 260/13 kt. The steering pattern
is expected to be fairly straightforward with a mid-level ridge
established the north of the cyclone. This should result in a
continued westward motion for the next few days. The official track
forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus
guidance.

Fernanda is crossing the SST gradient and should be moving over
progressively cooler waters. Therefore, the system is not likely to
regenerate sustained deep convection, and continued rapid weakening
is likely. The cyclone should drop below tropical storm strength
tomorrow and weaken to dissipation in 72 hours if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 17.1N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.9N 128.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.9N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 16.9N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 17.0N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 17.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 17.0N 142.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 161444
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

...FERNANDA NOW A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 126.8W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 126.8 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Fernanda is likely to become a post-tropical
remnant low within a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 161444
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
1500 UTC WED AUG 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.8W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.8W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 126.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.9N 128.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.9N 131.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 134.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.0N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.0N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.0N 142.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 126.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 160837
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

Fernanda's structure is becoming more ragged and less organized this
evening, as it moves into a drier and more stable airmass. Infrared
satellite trends since the previous advisory have drastically
deteriorated, with convection dissipating, particularly on the
northern side of the system. Cloud tops have been warming over the
last few hours as well. Subjective Dvorak final-T estimates were
lower for this cycle as well with SAB and TAFB at T3.5 and 4.0,
respectively. Although, some of the objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS are still a bit higher. Using a blend of satellite
estimates and assuming a lag in the spin down of Fernanda's winds,
the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 65 kt.

Fernanda continues to weaken, barely holding on to hurricane
strength. Vertical wind shear continues to effect the system, as
well as rapidly cooling sea-surface temperatures, and mid-level
relative humidity levels below 40 percent. This combination will
continue to cause rapid weakening, and Fernanda is expected to
become a tropical storm within very soon, and a post-tropical
cyclone in about 36 h. There is good agreement from global model
simulated infrared satellite images that the cyclone will be void
of deep convection in about 36 h. The remnant low is now expected
to open up into a trough by day 5.

The motion of Fernanda remains generally westward, with a mid-level
ridge expected to continue to steer the cyclone generally westward
throughout the forecast period. The track guidance this cycle once
again shifted a bit south, possibly in response to the storm quickly
weakening and becoming more steered by the low-level flow. Thus,
the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit to the south of
the prior one, but not quite as far as south as the HCCA corrected
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 17.4N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.2N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 17.1N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.2N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 18/0600Z 17.3N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 17.5N 138.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 17.7N 141.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z 17.7N 147.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 160836
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

...FERNANDA BARELY HOLDING ON TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST TO CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 125.5W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 125.5 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast to continue, and
Fernanda is likely to become a tropical storm on Wednesday, and a
post-tropical low on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 160836
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
0900 UTC WED AUG 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.5W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.5W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 124.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 127.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.1N 130.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.2N 132.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.3N 135.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 138.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.7N 141.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.7N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 160238
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 PM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

Fernanda continues weakening this evening. The overall structure of
the hurricane on visible and infrared satellite has not changed
much, with its central dense overcast remaining mostly intact.
However, recent microwave imagery from GMI and SSMIS show the
inner-core structure has degraded more quickly, with the low- and
mid-level eye signatures no longer aligned, and the deepest
convection becoming increasingly displaced west of the low-level
center. Subjective intensity estimates were both down to T4.5/77 kt
from TAFB and SAB, but some of the objective intensity estimates,
such as UW-CIMSS ADT remain a bit higher, up near 90 kt. The initial
intensity this advisory is set at 80 kt, closer to the lower end of
the intensity guidance range.

Fernanda's inner core is becoming increasingly ragged, likely due to
the unfavorable combination of mid-level shear undercutting its
outflow, very dry mid-level environmental air, and sea-surface
temperatures which are quickly decreasing. These factors foreshadow
weakening, likely rapid, over the next few days, and Fernanda is
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 hours.
This forecast is in good agreement with the global and
regional-hurricane model guidance which shows the cyclone losing
organized deep convection around that time frame.

The motion of Fernanda remains just poleward of due west, but a bit
faster than before at 280/12 kt, as the mid-level ridge to its north
has become better established. The track guidance this cycle has
actually shifted a bit south, possibly in response to the storm
quickly weakening in the short-term forecast and becoming more
steered by the low-level trade wind flow. Thus, the latest NHC track
forecast has been shifted a bit to the south of the prior one, but
not quite as far as HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.3N 124.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 17.4N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.5N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.6N 131.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z 17.9N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 17.9N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z 18.0N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z 18.1N 152.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 160237
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 PM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

...FERNANDA CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC
WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 124.1W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 124.1 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a general westward
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours and Fernanda is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low
on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 160236
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
0300 UTC WED AUG 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.4N 126.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.6N 131.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.9N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.1N 152.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 124.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 152045
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

Fernanda seems to be resuming a weakening trend possibly due to
moderate deep-layer shear and embedded dry air. Infrared satellite
images indicate that the coverage of deep convection has decreased
during the past few hours. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and
TAFB remain at 77 kt and 102 kt, respectively. CIMSS ADT and AiDT
estimates are in the 90 kt to 99 kt range. Thus, the initial
intensity is decreased to 90 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is now moving westward at 10 kt. The track forecast
reasoning remains unchanged. A weak mid-level ridge to the northwest
of Fernanda is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward over
the next several days. The current NHC track forecast has been
updated with minor adjustments.

The official forecast track takes Fernanda over cooler waters,
crossing the 26C isotherm in 18 to 24 hours. While the current
moderate vertical wind shear is expected to diminish in about 12
hours, the hurricane will be encountering an increasingly dry and
stable airmass. Therefore, Fernanda is forecast to quickly weaken
over the next couple of days. Fernanda is now expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 17.3N 122.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.7N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.9N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 18/0600Z 18.2N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z 18.4N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z 18.4N 144.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z 18.2N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Delgado/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 152040
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

...FERNANDA RESUMES WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 122.8W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 122.8 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general westward
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
several days. Fernanda is expected to become a tropical storm on
Wednesday and weaken to a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Delgado/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 152040
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.8W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.8W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.7N 129.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.9N 132.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.2N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.4N 138.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.4N 144.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.2N 150.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 122.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER DELGADO/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 151440
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

Recent satellite imagery shows that Fernanda has not changed much in
appearance and a possible ragged eye has appeared in the last few
hours. Earlier microwave passes indicate that the hurricane still
has a well-defined center with concentric eyewalls. Subjective
Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB range from 77 kt to 102 kt. CIMSS
ADT and AiDT estimates are 92 kt and 87 kt, respectively. Thus, the
initial intensity is held at 95 kt for this advisory.

Fernanda is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. There has been
little change to the track forecast since the last advisory. The
hurricane is moving near the southeast periphery of a weak mid-level
ridge. A general west-northwest to westward motion is forecast over
the next several days with a slight increase in forward speed. The
official track forecast has been nudged slightly south compared to
the previous prediction, and the track remains close to the various
consensus model predictions.

The hurricane is heading into a drier airmass and expected to
cross the 26C isotherm in about 24 hours. Also, statistical models
indicate that Fernanda is experiencing moderate southeasterly wind
shear. Therefore, continued weakening is expected through the
forecast period. Simulated satellite imagery from global models
suggest that most of the convection will collapse in about 24 to 36
hours and the system will be devoid of convection in about 60
hours. Fernanda is still forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone
at 60 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 17.0N 121.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.3N 123.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.6N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.8N 131.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 18.0N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 18/1200Z 18.1N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 18.3N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z 18.2N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Delgado/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 151439
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

...FERNANDA HOLDS STEADY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 121.8W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 121.8 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to westward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next several
days. Fernanda is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on
Wednesday and become post-tropical on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Delgado/Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 151439
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.8W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.8W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 123.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.6N 128.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.8N 131.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.0N 134.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.1N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.3N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 121.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER DELGADO/BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 150837
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

Fernanda continues to show signs of weakening this evening, with the
once-visible and distinct eye from earlier today having vanished
and now cloud filled. Microwave passes from this evening depict that
the inner core of Fernanda has started to lose its well-defined
structure. This is reflected in the recent infrared satellite trends
showing the ring of cold cloud tops becoming less organized, and
not as tightly wrapped around the center. Subjective final-T Dvorak
numbers from TAFB and SAB for this advisory were T5.5/T4.5,
respectively. CIMMS ADT and AiDT estimates have started
to drop as well, and lie between the TAFB and SAB estimates. Given
the decline in satellite appearance, and using a blend of the
satellite estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is
lowered to 95 kt.

The hurricane is being steered by a weak mid-level ridge with a
generally west-northwest to westward motion expected throughout the
period. The hurricane will begin to gradually increase in forward
speed over the next several days, as the aforementioned mid-level
ridge strengthens and builds westward. The official track forecast
is similar to the previous forecast, and the track remains close to
both the simple and corrected consensus model guidance.

Fernanda is moving into a less favorable environment, which is
expected to cause fairly quick weakening. Southerly mid-level
vertical wind shear is starting to increase over the cyclone, and
will increase to 15 to 20 kt. The system is also moving into a
fairly stable, and much drier airmass, with mid-level relative
humidity values plummeting to below 40 percent in about 24 hours.
In addition, sea surface temperatures also begin to rapidly cool
in 24 to 36 hours. Given these conditions, simulated satellite
imagery from both the GFS and ECMWF show the system void of most of
its convection in about 60h. This is now reflected in the latest
NHC intensity forecast, which shows a little faster weakening
trend, and the system now becoming post-tropical at 60 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 120.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.7N 124.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 17.9N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 18.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 18.2N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 18/0600Z 18.3N 135.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z 18.5N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z 18.4N 148.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 150836
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

...FERNANDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 120.7W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 120.7 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to westward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
several days. Fernanda is expected to weaken to a tropical storm
on Wednesday and become post-tropical on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 150835
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 124.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 127.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.2N 132.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 135.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 142.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 148.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 150235
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 PM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

This evening, Fernanda's inner-core structure is beginning to show
signs of decay, with its well-defined eye becoming cloud filled on
both visible and infrared satellite images. Earlier, a 2144 UTC
AMSR2 microwave pass suggested the hurricane might be undergoing an
eyewall replacement cycle, which could be partially responsible for
its recent structural degradation. 0000 UTC subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 115 kt and 102 kt,
respectively. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have
either leveled off or have begun to decline, with the most recent
D-MINT estimate at 107 kt associated with the aforementioned AMSR2
pass above. The initial intensity has been lowered to 105 kt this
advisory given the continued decline since that time.

Fernanda has been moving a bit more poleward over the last 6 to 12
hours, with the latest estimated motion at 290/8 kt. The mid-level
ridging has been taking its time building back in to the north over
the past 24 hours, but is still forecast to do so over the next few
days, leading to Fernanda gradually accelerating to the
west-northwest. Beyond 48 hours, a weakening Fernanda should quickly
become more vertically shallow, resulting in the cyclone turning
more westward as it comes under the influence of the more extensive
North Pacific low-level subtropical ridge. The official forecast
continues to be very close to the prior forecast, other than a
short-term nudge further north given the initial motion. This track
remains close to both the simple and corrected consensus model
guidance.

In addition to a possible eyewall replacement cycle, Fernanda might
also be feeling the effects of some higher (15-20 kt) mid-level
vertical wind shear out of the south. Very dry mid-level
environmental air could also be attempting to wrap around the
southwest quadrant of the cyclone. Given these factors, it now seems
more likely Fernanda will continue weakening in the short-term, with
the rate of weakening increasing after it crosses the 26-C isotherm
in about 24-36 hours. Both the global and regional-hurricane models
now show Fernanda losing its organized convection in about 3 days,
with the latest NHC intensity forecast showing the system becoming a
post-tropical remnant low at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 16.5N 119.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.4N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 17.6N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.1N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 18.2N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z 18.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 150233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 PM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

...FERNANDA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 119.8W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 119.8 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a
westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Fernanda is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
forecast during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 150232
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 119.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 119.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 119.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 128.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.2N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 119.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 142036
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

Fernanda has been maintaining a well-defined eye some 10 n mi in
diameter with very cold surrounding convective cloud tops. The
upper-level outflow pattern remains well defined, particularly to
the north. Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
remain at 115 kt and objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS are also
near that value. Thus the intensity estimate is held at 115 kt,
i.e. category 4 strength, for this advisory.

Although there have been some trochoidal wobbles in the motion,
which is fairly common in intense hurricanes, the overall motion
continues to be westward or slightly north of westward at a rather
slow pace, 6 kt. The mid-level ridge to the north of Fernanda is
still rather weak due to the influence of a cutoff low near the
California coast. Global model predictions show the ridge becoming
better established over the next several days, which should result
in some increase in forward speed. In 3-5 days, the shallower and
weaker cyclone is likely to be carried on a westward track
following the lower-level trade wind flow. The official forecast
track is basically an extension of the previous one and remains in
good agreement with the simple and corrected dynamical model
consensus solutions.

Although it is likely that Fernanda has reached its peak intensity,
the hurricane should remain in a favorable SST and atmospheric
thermodynamic environment until tonight so some additional
short-term strengthening is possible. After about 12 hours, the
influences of drier air and cooler waters should begin to take their
toll, so the official forecast shows a steady weakening trend in 1-4
days. This is in good agreement with the corrected consensus, HCCA,
prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 119.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.5N 120.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.2N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 130.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 142035
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

...FERNANDA MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 119.0W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 119.0 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general west to
west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some increase in
forward speed over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fernanda is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although a little more strengthening is
possible later today, a weakening trend is likely to begin late
tonight or early Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 142034
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
2100 UTC MON AUG 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.0W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 119.0W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 120.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.2N 122.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.9N 130.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 119.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 141438
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

Fernanda has continued to intensify this morning. The 10 nmi-
diameter eye is very well defined and is surrounded by a ring of
-70 deg C or colder convective cloud tops. The hurricane's
upper-level outflow pattern remains quite symmetric. Dvorak data
T-numbers for the system are now around 6.0 which supports an
intensity of 115 kt, i.e. category 4 intensity. This is also in
good agreement with objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS.

A westward to west-northwestward track continues with an initial
motion estimate of about 280/7 kt. There are no significant
changes to the track forecast reasoning from the previous
advisory. A weak mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of
Fernanda should gradually strengthen over the next several days.
This should result in a continued west-northwestward or slightly
north of westward movement with some increase of forward speed over
the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the weakening
cyclone should move mostly westward, following the low-level
environmental flow. The official track forecast is close to both
the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus guidance.

The hurricane should traverse SSTs of 28-29 deg C today while
remaining in a low-vertical wind shear environment. Therefore some
additional strengthening will probably occur today. By early
tomorrow and thereafter, Fernanda should begin to encounter the
drier low- to mid-level air mass that is seen in the GOES-18
lower-level water vapor imagery not far to the west-northwest of the
tropical cyclone. This, along with cooler ocean waters, should
result in steady weakening of the system over the next 2-5 days.
The official intensity forecast calls for Fernanda to degenerate
into a post-tropical cyclone at 96 h. However, based on the
latest simulated satellite imagery from the global models, a faster
rate of weakening is certainly possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.8N 118.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.3N 119.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.4N 123.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 17.6N 126.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 17.8N 128.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 18.0N 131.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 18.3N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 19/1200Z 18.5N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 141438
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

...FERNANDA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 118.5W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 118.5 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h. A general west to
west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some increase in
forward speed over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Fernanda is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
could occur today. A weakening trend is expected to begin tonight
or early Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 141437
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
1500 UTC MON AUG 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.5W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.5W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 118.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 119.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 123.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 126.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 128.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 131.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.3N 137.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 118.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 140847
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 13 2023

Fernanda continues to rapidly intensify this evening. The
well-defined eye has warmed and continues to be surrounded by a
solid core of cold cloud tops around -70C. Microwave imagery from
earlier this evening showed a thick closed eyewall and a well
defined structure. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to
increase this evening as well, with subjective estimates from TAFB
and SAB T5.5/T6.0, respectively. CIMMS ADT/AiDT objective satellite
estimates are in a similar range. Using a blend of these estimates
the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 110 kt.

The hurricane continues to move generally westward to
west-northwestward at 280/7 kt. Fernanda is being steered by a weak
mid-level ridge with a generally west to west-northwest motion
expected throughout the period. As the ridge begins to re-strengthen
in the next day or so, the hurricane will begin to move faster,
with a gradually accelerating forward speed over the next several
days. The official track forecast is quite similar to the prior
one, with just a slight adjustment northward in the short term.

Fernanda is now a major hurricane and is in an environment that will
continue to allow for further intensification. Vertical wind shear
is forecast to remain under 10 kt and with warm sea surface
temperatures. Thereafter, Fernanda will move into an increasingly
dry and stable environment, with mid-level relative humidity levels
dropping below 40 percent in about 48 hrs. This will occur at the
same time the SSTs also begin to drop off along the forecast track.
These factors should lead to initially gradual, and then more rapid
weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is above most of the
guidance over the next 24 hours, but is closer to the consensus aids
in days 2-4. However, there is some guidance that show an even
faster decay than what is currently forecast, with the system
becoming void of convection due to the very dry airmass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.6N 117.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 118.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.5N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.0N 122.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 17.3N 124.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 17.3N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 17.5N 130.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 18.0N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 18.5N 142.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 140846
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 13 2023

...FERNANDA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 117.7W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 117.7 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general west to
west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some increase in
forward speed over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fernanda is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast
over the next 12 to 18 hours, with Fernanda forecast to become a
category 4 hurricane on Monday. Gradual weakening is expected to
begin thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 140845
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
0900 UTC MON AUG 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 117.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 117.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 124.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.3N 127.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 130.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 18.0N 136.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 142.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 140412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 137.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2023 0 11.0N 137.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 14.08.2023 12 11.6N 140.1W 1006 30
0000UTC 15.08.2023 24 11.7N 142.8W 1005 33
1200UTC 15.08.2023 36 11.7N 145.3W 1004 34
0000UTC 16.08.2023 48 11.9N 147.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 16.08.2023 60 11.9N 150.5W 1005 32
0000UTC 17.08.2023 72 12.3N 153.0W 1006 30
1200UTC 17.08.2023 84 12.2N 155.3W 1007 31
0000UTC 18.08.2023 96 11.8N 157.9W 1007 28
1200UTC 18.08.2023 108 11.6N 160.5W 1008 26
0000UTC 19.08.2023 120 11.5N 162.9W 1008 25
1200UTC 19.08.2023 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2023 0 15.3N 117.0W 990 45
1200UTC 14.08.2023 12 15.5N 118.5W 987 50
0000UTC 15.08.2023 24 16.1N 119.8W 983 58
1200UTC 15.08.2023 36 16.6N 121.9W 977 62
0000UTC 16.08.2023 48 17.1N 124.3W 978 61
1200UTC 16.08.2023 60 17.2N 127.2W 988 50
0000UTC 17.08.2023 72 17.5N 130.4W 993 42
1200UTC 17.08.2023 84 18.0N 133.8W 1002 36
0000UTC 18.08.2023 96 18.5N 137.4W 1006 29
1200UTC 18.08.2023 108 18.6N 141.3W 1009 25
0000UTC 19.08.2023 120 18.5N 144.7W 1009 25
1200UTC 19.08.2023 132 18.3N 148.1W 1009 24
0000UTC 20.08.2023 144 18.6N 150.3W 1009 24
1200UTC 20.08.2023 156 18.9N 152.8W 1010 23
0000UTC 21.08.2023 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.2N 113.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.08.2023 84 12.2N 113.5W 1004 23
0000UTC 18.08.2023 96 12.7N 115.4W 1003 27
1200UTC 18.08.2023 108 13.7N 118.3W 1002 27
0000UTC 19.08.2023 120 14.2N 120.4W 1000 31
1200UTC 19.08.2023 132 15.4N 121.5W 999 37
0000UTC 20.08.2023 144 16.3N 122.8W 998 37
1200UTC 20.08.2023 156 17.5N 124.9W 1000 36
0000UTC 21.08.2023 168 18.2N 126.4W 1000 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 12.0N 20.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2023 168 12.7N 22.3W 1009 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140412

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 140412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 137.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.08.2023 11.0N 137.8W WEAK
12UTC 14.08.2023 11.6N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2023 11.7N 142.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2023 11.7N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2023 11.9N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2023 11.9N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2023 12.3N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2023 12.2N 155.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2023 11.8N 157.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 11.6N 160.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 11.5N 162.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.08.2023 15.3N 117.0W MODERATE
12UTC 14.08.2023 15.5N 118.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2023 16.1N 119.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.08.2023 16.6N 121.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.08.2023 17.1N 124.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2023 17.2N 127.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2023 17.5N 130.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.08.2023 18.0N 133.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2023 18.5N 137.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.08.2023 18.6N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 18.5N 144.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2023 18.3N 148.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2023 18.6N 150.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2023 18.9N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.2N 113.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.08.2023 12.2N 113.5W WEAK
00UTC 18.08.2023 12.7N 115.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 13.7N 118.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 14.2N 120.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2023 15.4N 121.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2023 16.3N 122.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2023 17.5N 124.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 18.2N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 12.0N 20.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.08.2023 12.7N 22.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140412

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 140244
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 PM HST Sun Aug 13 2023

Fernanda continues to rapidly intensify this evening. Since the
prior advisory, the eye signature on visible satellite has become
much more distinct as infrared cold cloud tops between -65 to -75 C
have grown and encircled the eye. The last few microwave passes
indicate quickly improving structure, with a 2331 UTC GMI pass
showing a thick closed eyewall on the 89 and 37 GHz channels.
Satellite intensity estimates have responded by rapidly increasing,
with subjective estimates at 0000 UTC from TAFB and SAB between 77-
to 90-kt, and objective estimates covering a similar range. Given
the improvement of Fernanda's structure on satellite since that
time, the initial intensity is set near the top of those estimates
at 90 kt this advisory.

The hurricane continues to move generally westward to
west-northwestward at 280/8 kt. As mentioned previously, the
hurricane has been moving rather slowly over the last 24 hours due
to a weak mid-level ridge that has been eroded some by a cutoff low
located further north near the California coast. However, the
ridging north of Fernanda should gradually build back in as this
cutoff low retrogrades off to the northwest. The net effect of this
change should lead to the hurricane gradually accelerating over the
next several days. As Fernanda becomes more vertically shallow
towards the end of the forecast, it should also turn more westward.
The official track forecast is quite similar to the prior one, but
just a little faster, favoring a blend of the latest HCCA and TVCE
consensus aids.

Given the most recent microwave imagery showing Fernanda developing
a well-defined single closed eyewall, the hurricane seems poised to
continue rapidly intensifying. Vertical wind shear is forecast to
remain under 5 kt and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) remaining near
29 C for the next day or so. In fact, SHIPS-RII shows a 67 percent
chance of another 30 kt increase in intensity over the next 24
hours, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows Fernanda
becoming a powerful Category 4 hurricane in the next day or so.
Thereafter, Fernanda will move into an increasingly dry and stable
environment, as SSTs rapidly drop off along the forecast track.
These negative factors should lead to initially gradual, and
then more rapid weakening towards the second half of the forecast
period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is above most of the
guidance over the next 24 hours, in light of its continued rapid
intensification, but falls back closer to the HCCA and IVCN
intensity aids between days 2-4. Both the GFS and ECMWF models
suggest the cyclone will become devoid of organized convection by
120 hours, and the latest intensity forecast now shows the system
becoming a remnant low by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.6N 117.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 15.8N 118.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.3N 119.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.9N 121.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 17.2N 123.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 17.3N 126.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 17.4N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 17.7N 134.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 18.0N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 140243
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 PM HST Sun Aug 13 2023

...FERNANDA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 117.2W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 117.2 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
west to west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some
increase in forward speed over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid intensification is forecast
over the next day or so, and Fernanda is now forecast to become a
category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. Gradual weakening is expected to
begin thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 140243
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
0300 UTC MON AUG 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 117.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 117.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.3N 119.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 121.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 126.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 129.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 134.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 132037
TCDEP2

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Satellite imagery indicates that small Fernanda has been
strengthening rapidly today. A faint eye has become apparent on
visible satellite imagery, and outer banding features are becoming
better defined. Since the presence of a visible eye is usually a
good indicator that a tropical cyclone has become a hurricane, the
system is being upgraded on this advisory. This intensity is also
in agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB. The upper-level
outflow pattern has also become more symmetric over the circulation.

Fernanda continues moving west-northwestward at a slightly slower
pace with an estimated motion of 285/8 kt. The mid-level ridge to
the north of the tropical cyclone is currently rather weak due to
the presence of a cutoff low near the California coast. Over
the next few days, the ridge to the north of Fernanda is forecast
to strengthen as the influence of the cutoff low lessens. As a
result, the system should move somewhat faster to the
west-northwest during the next 72 hours or so while turning
westward later in the forecast period. The official track forecast
remains very close to the previous one and is also very similar to
the dynamical model consensus aid TVCE.

The hurricane should continue to pass over SSTs of around 29 deg C
for the next day or two while remaining in a very low vertical shear
environment. The rapid intensification (RI) indices such as SHIPS,
RII, and DTOPS continue to show a good chance of RI continuing over
the next day or so. Thus, the official forecast will again call for
RI over the next 24 hours. However, in about 48 hours, drier
mid-level air should halt the strengthening process. The numerical
guidance is in good agreement that Fernanda will steadily weaken in
2-5 days, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast, which
is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.5N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.8N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.2N 119.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.7N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 132036
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...FERNANDA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 116.5W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so.

Fernanda is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 132036
TCMEP2

HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.8N 117.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N 119.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.7N 120.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 116.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 131446
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...FERNANDA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 115.9W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 115.9 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or
two, and Fernanda is expected to become a hurricane later today or
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 131444
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

The compact storm is currently exhibiting a CDO-type cloud pattern
with very cold embedded tops to near -80 deg C. Upper-level
outflow is well defined over the western semicircle of the
circulation. The current intensity estimate is set at 50 kt based
on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along
with various objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.

Fernanda continues its west-northwestward trek, and the initial
motion estimate remains at around 285/9 kt. A weak mid-level ridge
is currently situated to the north of the system. Over the next
few days, the ridge is expected to strengthen somewhat. This
should result in a gradual increase in forward speed during the
forecast period with a turn toward the west in a few days. The
official forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one
and is very close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCE.

The tropical cyclone should continue to traverse sea surface
temperatures near 29 deg C for the next 36 hours or so with very
low vertical wind shear. Rapid intensification (RI) seems likely,
and the SHIPS RI indices show a significant likelihood of an
increase of intensity of around 30 kt during the next day or so.
The official forecast goes along with this guidance and calls for
Fernanda to become a hurricane in 12 hours or so, and to reach
category 2 strength within the next couple of days. By 48 hours and
beyond a drier air mass, seen in GOES-18 low-level water vapor
imagery to the west-northwest of the cyclone, should result in
weakening. The official forecast is near or a little below the
latest corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 15.4N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.6N 117.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 118.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.4N 120.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 16.9N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 17.5N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 17.8N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 131443
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...FERNANDA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 115.9W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 115.9 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or
two, and Fernanda is expected to become a hurricane later today or
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 131443
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.9W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.9W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.6N 117.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 118.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 122.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 17.8N 132.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 130840
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Geostationary satellite imagery shows that banding associated with
Fernanda has continued to increase overnight with a small central
dense overcast feature recently developing. Unfortunately there
have been no recent microwave or scatterometer overpasses to help
ascertain the inner core structure and wind field of the small
tropical cyclone. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates range
from T2.5 (35 kt) from TAFB to T3.5 (55 kt) from SAB. The initial
intensity for this advisory is set at 45 kt, using a blend of those
subjective estimates.

Fernanda is currently traversing SSTs of around 29 degrees Celsius
and is within an area of low vertical wind shear These conditions
favor steady to rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.
The only negative factor is some nearby dry mid-level air, but the
low shear conditions suggest that the small cyclone is likely to
intensify. Although the NHC intensity forecast does not quite
predict rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours, it does
forecast a fairly substantial 40 kt increase in wind speed during
the next 36 hours, showing rapid intensification (RI) between the
12 and 36 hour period. After 60 hours, decreasing SSTs and a more
stable environment along the track of Fernanda are expected to
cause steady weakening later in the period. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is a little above the SHIPS guidance, but lies
near the ICON consensus aid. This is a little below the latest
HFIP corrected consensus model.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt. A
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue
during the next few days at a slightly slower forward speed. After
that time, a faster westward motion is anticipated as the ridge to
the north of Fernanda strengthens. There is some cross-track
spread in the guidance beyond 72 hours which is primarily related
to how much latitude Fernanda gains during the next few days.
The NHC track prediction is near the middle of the guidance
envelope, close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 15.1N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.3N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.6N 118.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.0N 119.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.5N 121.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 17.0N 123.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 17.3N 125.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 17.6N 130.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 17.7N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 130839
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...FERNANDA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 115.1W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 115.1 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or two, and the system is expected to become a
hurricane tonight or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 130839
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
0900 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.1W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.1W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.3N 116.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.6N 118.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 119.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 121.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 123.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 125.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 17.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 17.7N 137.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 130232
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Satellite imagery indicates that the storm is producing more
organized convection and curved bands now wrap about half way around
the center. The system appears to be on a strengthening trend with
visible satellite images showing a compact structure. The initial
intensity has increased up to 40 kt, which is slightly above the
latest Dvorak estimates, making it a tropical storm.

Fernanda is moving to the west-northwest at about 9 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue through the next few days at a slower
pace as it moves towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Around
mid-week, the system is anticipated to move more westward at a
faster forward speed due to a strengthening ridge to its north.
There is some spread in the models, especially at days 4 and 5, but
they generally agree on the future track. No significant changes
were made from the previous forecast.

Steady to rapid intensification is possible during the next 36 hours
as Fernanda remains over warm 29C waters in low wind shear
conditions. Fernanda could reach a peak intensity around 80 kt
Monday and Tuesday, and some models suggest a slightly higher
strength. By late Tuesday, the system is expected to move over
cooler waters and into a drier environment which should lead to a
weakening trend. The new NHC forecast shows the intensity increase
at a faster rate during the next 24 to 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.0N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 15.3N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.7N 116.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.0N 118.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.4N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 16.9N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.3N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 17.7N 128.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 17.8N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 130231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 114.0W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernanda was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 114.0 West. Fernanda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through the next few days at a
slightly slower forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the
next day or two, and the system is expected to become a hurricane by
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 130231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.0W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.0W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.3N 115.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.7N 116.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 118.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.4N 120.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 121.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 123.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.7N 128.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 134.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 114.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 122034
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has attained sufficient organization to be
classified as a tropical depression. The last couple of microwave
satellite overpasses show a similar scenario, with cold
convective curved bands becoming better organized around a low-level
center, which appears to be located near the northern edge of the
convective cloud mass based on recent visible satellite images. The
latest TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T-2.0. Based on these
data, Invest 98E is upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven-E with an
initial intensity of 30 kt.

Weak mid-level ridging well to the north of the depression will
steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt over the
next few days. Beyond 72 h, the ridge should strengthen enough to
cause a turn to the west with a slight increase in forward speed.
The NHC forecast track is in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCE
consensus models.

Environmental conditions are quite favorable for strengthening over
the next 48-60 h, with warm ocean temperatures, low vertical
wind shear and a relatively moist low to mid-level troposphere. The
NHC forecast peaks the system at 75 kt in 48-60 h, which is near
the middle of the intensity guidance. The ECMWF version of the
SHIPS RI index shows a 52 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in
winds over the next 72 h, so there is a chance the cyclone could
strengthen more than forecast. After that time, the cyclone is
forecast to move into a much drier environment along with slowly
decreasing sea-surface temperatures. There is high confidence on
significant weakening beyond 72 h due to the very dry airmass that
the cyclone will be moving into.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 14.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 15.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.5N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 15.7N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.1N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 17.8N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 122033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 113.2W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E
was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 113.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 122032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023
2100 UTC SAT AUG 12 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.2W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.2W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.2N 114.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 115.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.7N 117.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 122.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 133.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG



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