Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for GREG-23 Off-shore from 14 Aug 2023 03:00 UTC to 18 Aug 2023 03:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for GREG-23

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

18/08 02:51 WTPN32PHNC180400

18/08 02:41 WTPA43PHFO180240

18/08 02:38 WTPA33PHFO180237

18/08 02:37 WTPA23PHFO180237

17/08 20:58 WTPN32PHNC172200

17/08 20:47 WTPA43PHFO172046

17/08 20:37 WTPA33PHFO172037

17/08 20:35 WTPA23PHFO172035

17/08 15:23 WTPN32PHNC171600

17/08 14:50 WTPA43PHFO171448

17/08 14:36 WTPA33PHFO171435

17/08 14:34 WTPA23PHFO171433

17/08 09:30 WTPN32PHNC171000

17/08 08:35 WTPA43PHFO170834

17/08 08:32 WTPA33PHFO170832

17/08 08:32 WTPA23PHFO170831

17/08 03:04 WTPN32PHNC170400

17/08 02:42 WTPA43PHFO170241

17/08 02:39 WTPA33PHFO170238

17/08 02:38 WTPA23PHFO170237

16/08 21:11 WTPN32PHNC162200

16/08 20:42 WTPA43PHFO162041

16/08 20:40 WTPA33PHFO162039

16/08 20:40 WTPA23PHFO162039

16/08 15:47 WTPN32PHNC161600

16/08 14:36 WTPA43PHFO161434

16/08 14:32 WTPA33PHFO161432

16/08 14:31 WTPA23PHFO161431

16/08 10:09 WTPN32PHNC161000

16/08 08:35 WTPA43PHFO160834

16/08 08:34 WTPA33PHFO160833

16/08 08:33 WTPA23PHFO160833

16/08 04:12 WTNT80EGRR160411

16/08 03:10 WTPN32PHNC160400

16/08 02:45 WTPA43PHFO160243

16/08 02:42 WTPA33PHFO160242

16/08 02:42 WTPA23PHFO160241

15/08 21:47 WTPN32PHNC152200

15/08 20:48 WTPA43PHFO152047

15/08 20:42 WTPA33PHFO152042

15/08 20:42 WTPA23PHFO152042

15/08 15:20 WTPN32PHNC151600

15/08 14:51 WTPA43PHFO151450

15/08 14:49 WTPA43PHFO151447

15/08 14:47 WTPA33PHFO151446

15/08 14:46 WTPA23PHFO151446

15/08 09:17 WTPN32PHNC151000

15/08 08:55 WTPA43PHFO150853

15/08 08:53 WTPA33PHFO150853

15/08 08:52 WTPA23PHFO150852

15/08 04:13 WTNT82EGRR150412

15/08 04:13 WTNT80EGRR150412

15/08 03:21 WTPN32PHNC150400

15/08 02:39 WTPA43PHFO150237

15/08 02:37 WTPA33PHFO150236

15/08 02:36 WTPA23PHFO150236

14/08 21:59 WTPN32PHNC142200

14/08 20:35 WTPA43PHFO142034

14/08 20:33 WTPA33PHFO142033

14/08 20:33 WTPA23PHFO142032

14/08 16:13 WTNT82EGRR141612

14/08 16:13 WTNT80EGRR141612

14/08 15:30 WTPN32PHNC141600

14/08 14:38 WTPA43PHFO141437

14/08 14:34 WTPA33PHFO141434

14/08 14:32 WTPA23PHFO141432

14/08 10:11 WTPZ23KNHC141009

14/08 09:00 WTPZ43KNHC140857

14/08 08:57 WTPZ33KNHC140855

14/08 08:56 WTPZ23KNHC140855

14/08 02:44 WTPZ23KNHC140243

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 12.1N 157.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 157.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.9N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
180400Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 158.7W.
18AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
479 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 81800Z IS 1007
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO HURRICANE 09E (HILARY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 180240
TCDCP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Greg Discussion Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 PM HST Thu Aug 17 2023

A burst of convection that developed in Greg's northern semicircle
this morning was unable to wrap around the cyclone's core,
apparently due to moderate vertical wind shear. A 2058Z ASCAT pass
found a couple 35 kt wind barbs in association with this convection,
while also indicating that a closed low-level circulation center
(LLCC) may no longer exist. Since then, disorganized convection has
once again developed north of the center, while visible satellite
imagery shows a fully exposed and elongated LLCC. Given the
cyclone's inability to sustain deep convection over the increasingly
ill-defined center for a prolonged period of time, Greg is deemed
to be post-tropical with this advisory. Maximum sustained winds in
the northern semicircle are estimated to be near 30 kt.

The initial motion vector is a somewhat uncertain 265/15 kt, as the
elongated LLCC appeared to relocate westward in response to this
morning's convection. The remnant low will move generally toward the
west (or just south of west) within the trade wind flow supplied by
a surface high far to the north as it weakens to a trough on Friday.
The updated track and intensity forecasts are strongly guided by
regional and global dynamical model guidance.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
in Honolulu, under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP, WMO header FZPN40 PHFO,
and online at weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 12.0N 158.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 18/1200Z 11.9N 160.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 180237
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Greg Advisory Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 PM HST Thu Aug 17 2023

...GREG BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FAR SOUTH OF HAWAII...
...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 158.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Greg
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 158.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Greg is forecast to dissipate on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service in Honolulu, under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP, WMO
header FZPN40 PHFO, and online at weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 180237
TCMCP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
0300 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 158.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 158.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 157.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.9N 160.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 158.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
POST-TROPICAL GREG CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP...AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 12.2N 156.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 156.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.1N 158.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.8N 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.4N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
172200Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 157.1W.
17AUG23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
455 NM SOUTH OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 81718Z IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND 182200Z.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
07E (FERNANDA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC).
REFER TO HURRICANE 09E
(HILARY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 172046
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Greg Discussion Number 16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023

Greg has been able to produce relatively short-lived bursts of
convection in its northern semicircle over the past 12 to
18 hours, but it has been occurring significantly far from the
increasingly ill-defined low-level circulation center. Shear is
analyzed to be relatively light, but satellite observations
indicate that even this morning's flare-up of thunderstorms
have been unable to wrap around the cyclone's core. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates are 1.5/2.5 from PHFO/PGTW, with SAB
determining that Greg is too weak to classify. Automated intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS are all below tropical-storm-strength, and a
blend of these estimates yields an initial intensity estimate of
30 kt.

The initial motion vector for this advisory is 270/11 kt. Greg will
move generally toward the west (or just south of west) with the
trade wind flow in which it is embedded for the remainder of its
existence. The latest track forecast represents little change from
the previous, and lies close to TVCE and EMXI guidance. While SSTs
along the forecast track are sufficiently warm to sustain a tropical
cyclone, Greg is expected to gradually weaken over the next day
or two as increasing vertical wind shear prevents convection from
persisting over the center. Greg will likely soon become post-
tropical, then dissipate by Saturday, with the official intensity
forecast placing the greatest weight on the dynamical guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 12.2N 157.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 12.1N 158.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 18/1800Z 11.8N 161.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 19/0600Z 11.4N 164.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 172037
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Greg Advisory Number 16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023

...WEAKENING GREG WILL LIKELY SOON BECOME POST-TROPICAL...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 157.1W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Greg
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 157.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Greg will continue to gradually weaken over the next day or so,
then dissipate by Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 172035
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 157.1W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 157.1W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 156.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.1N 158.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 11.8N 161.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.4N 164.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 157.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 155.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 155.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.0N 157.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.9N 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.5N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.1N 165.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.6N 167.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
171600Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 155.8W.
17AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462 NM
SOUTH OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E
(FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR FINAL WARNING. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09E (HILARY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 171448
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023

Greg has quickly become disorganized overnight, with convection
becoming further displaced to the north, and then rapidly weakening.
As the convection became displaced, the exposed low level center
began moving south of due west. The subjective and objective
estimates range from 25 to 45 kt. A blend of these lead to
lowering the initial intensity to 35 kt, but that may be too
generous. It is possible that Greg could be declared post-tropical
later today.

The initial motion is 270/11 kt. As the convection weakened, the
exposed low level center took a short jog to the west-southwest,
but is now back on its expected westward path. This westward motion
is expected to continue today as Greg follows the southern edge of
a ridge to the north. This path will have Greg passing well south
of Hawaii today, before turning to the west-southwest as it
weakens. The forecast track closely follows the previous package
leaning towards the TVCA which remains in the middle of the
relatively tightly clustered guidance.

The intensity forecast is a bit more challenging. Limited convection
has become significantly sheared to the north of the low level
center. Statistical guidance shows Greg remaining in a low sheared
environment for the next 24 hours. However the satellite depiction
would suggest that Greg was under the influence of stronger shear
overnight. While it is possible for convection to redevelop near
the center should shear remain low, there is good agreement in the
guidance that shear will increase from the west to northwest
beyond 24 hours. This leaves a limited window for any development
of the system. Have held the intensity at 35 kt for the first 12
hours, and then followed the gradual weakening trend of the
dynamical guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 11.9N 155.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 12.0N 157.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 11.9N 159.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 11.5N 162.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 11.1N 165.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 20/0000Z 10.6N 167.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 171435
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 AM HST Thu Aug 17 2023

...TROPICAL STORM GREG WEAKENS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 155.6W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 155.6 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn to toward
the west-southwest tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
A weakening trend is expected over the next couple of days, with
Greg becoming a post-tropical remnant low Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 171433
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
1500 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 155.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 10SE 10SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 10SE 15SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 155.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 155.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.0N 157.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.9N 159.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.5N 162.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.1N 165.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 10.6N 167.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 155.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 12.1N 153.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 153.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.3N 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.2N 158.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.9N 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.5N 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.1N 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 10.5N 168.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
171000Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 154.7W.
17AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461 NM
SOUTH OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09E (HILARY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 170834
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

Deep convection associated with Greg continues to pulse, and is
sheared to the north of the low level center. Subjective Dvorak
intensities from PHFO, JTWC and SAB range from 2.0 to 3.0 (30 to 45
kt), with objective intensities ranging from 31 to 45 kt. A blend
of these estimates support holding the intensity at 40 kt.

The initial motion is 280/10 kt, as Greg continues to move just
north of west. This westward path will continue for the next 24
hours as Greg moves along the southern boundary of a low- to mid-
level ridge to the north. In 24 to 36 hours, a deepening ridge to
the north of Greg will steer the system to the west-southwest.
Greg will pass well south of Hawaii during this time. The official
forecast track remains close to the previous advisory, following
closely the TVCE in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance.

Greg remains over sufficiently warm SSTs, in an environment of light
southerly shear. While the system should remain over sufficiently
warm waters, an increase in northerly shear is expected beyond 24
hours. As such, the official forecast holds the system steady for
the next 12 hours, and then follows the dynamical models with steady
weakening thereafter. Greg is expected to become a post-tropical
remnant low by late Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 12.1N 154.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 12.2N 158.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 11.9N 161.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 11.5N 163.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1800Z 11.1N 166.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z 10.5N 168.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 170832
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

...TROPICAL STORM GREG CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 154.5W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 154.5 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through Thursday night, followed by turn
toward the west-southwest Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours,
followed by steady weakening. Greg is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low by late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 170831
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
0900 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 154.5W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 10SE 10SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 10SE 15SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 154.5W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 153.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.2N 158.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 11.9N 161.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 163.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.1N 166.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 10.5N 168.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 154.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 152.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 152.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.2N 155.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.3N 157.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.1N 160.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.7N 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.3N 165.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.8N 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
170400Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 153.7W.
17AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 81700Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09E (HILARY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 170241
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

Deep convection surrounding Greg continues to pulse under the
influence of southeasterly vertical wind shear. This has displaced
much of the convection to the north of a partially exposed
low-level circulation center. Dvorak current intensity estimates
range from 2.0/30 kt by SAB, to 3.5/35 kt out of JTWC, to 3.0/45 kt
at HFO. Since a 2343 UTC CIMSS SATCON came in at 43 kt and CIMSS ADT
was recently holding as high as 37 kt, a blend of the inputs
supports keeping the official intensity at 40 kt for this advisory,
though that may be generous.

Greg remains on a relatively steady forward motion that is slightly
north of due west, 280/11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge far to the
north will keep the tropical cyclone moving along a general
westward track through Thursday night, causing Greg to pass well
south of Hawaii. A turn toward the west-southwest is forecast on
Friday as the weakening tropical cyclone is steered by a deepening
ridge to the north. The official forecast track was altered little
from the prior advisory and lies near TVCE in the middle of a
tightly clustered guidance envelope.

Relatively light, southerly vertical wind shear will likely produce
only slow weakening of Greg over the next day or so. Beyond 24
hours, the dynamical guidance suggests steady weakening, likely due
to a gradual increase in northerly vertical wind shear produced by
a strengthening ridge aloft to the north. Conversely, the
statistical guidance shows little short term change in Greg,
followed by some strengthening. Given the tropical cyclone's
inability to strengthen within the current shear environment and
sufficiently warm SST, the official forecast follows the steady
weakening trend of the dynamical guidance beyond 24 hours, and Greg
is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by late Friday or
Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 12.1N 153.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 12.2N 155.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 12.3N 157.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 12.1N 160.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 11.7N 163.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 11.3N 165.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 10.8N 168.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 170238
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

...TROPICAL STORM GREG CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD PATH...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 153.5W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 153.5 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 13 mph. This motion is expected to
continue through Thursday night. A turn toward the west-southwest is
forecast on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours,
followed by steady weakening. Greg is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low by late Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 170237
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
0300 UTC THU AUG 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 153.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 10SE 10SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 10SE 15SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 153.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 152.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.2N 155.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.3N 157.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.1N 160.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.7N 163.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.3N 165.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 10.8N 168.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 153.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 162200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 11.8N 151.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 151.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.1N 154.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.2N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.1N 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.8N 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.3N 164.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.0N 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 10.1N 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
162200Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 152.7W.
16AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 509 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 81618Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09E (HILARY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 162041
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

Greg continues to be affected by southeasterly vertical wind shear,
and pulsing deep convection remains largely displaced to the north
and west of a partially exposed low-level circulation center. JTWC
and SAB came in with a current intensity of 2.5/35 kt, and HFO
estimated 3.5/55 kt, while CIMSS ADT was down at 37 kt. Given that
the satellite presentation is slightly degraded, a blend of these
inputs supports dropping the official intensity to 40 kt with this
advisory.

Greg remains on a relatively steady forward motion that is slightly
north of due west, 280/12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge far to the
north will keep the tropical cyclone moving along a general
westward track through the next 36 hours, causing Greg to pass well
south of Hawaii. A turn toward the west-southwest is forecast on
Friday as the weakening tropical cyclone is steered by a deepening
ridge to the north. The official forecast track was changed little
from the prior advisory and lies near TVCE in the middle of a
tightly clustered guidance envelope.

The intensity forecast is more challenging. Relatively light,
southerly vertical wind shear has been rather disruptive, leading
to the pulsing deep convection near the center of Greg. Conditions
will change little during the next 24 hours or so, and the official
forecast indicates no change in intensity, which is higher than all
guidance. Beyond 24 hours, guidance continues to split into two
camps. The dynamical guidance shows steady weakening as a deep,
strengthening ridge to the north imparts westerly to northwesterly
vertical wind shear, while the statistical guidance continues to
suggest some intensification. Given the tropical cyclone's
inability to resist the current shear environment, the official
forecast follows the steady weakening trend at the higher end of
the dynamical guidance envelope beyond 24 hours, and Greg is
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 11.9N 152.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 12.1N 154.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 12.2N 156.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 12.1N 159.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 11.8N 161.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 11.3N 164.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 11.0N 167.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z 10.1N 171.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 162039
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

...TROPICAL STORM GREG WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD
PATH...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 152.5W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 152.5 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through the next 36 hours. A turn toward the
west-southwest is forecast on Friday, with this motion continuing
into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours,
followed by steady weakening. Greg is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 162039
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 152.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 10SE 15SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 152.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 151.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.1N 154.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.2N 156.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.1N 159.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 11.8N 161.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.3N 164.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.0N 167.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 10.1N 171.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 152.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 11.7N 150.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 150.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.1N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.2N 155.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.1N 157.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.8N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.4N 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.1N 165.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 10.1N 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161600Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 151.3W.
16AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 549 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS
1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (HILARY) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 161434
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 11
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

Over the last several hours, the southeastern edge of the low
level center has been apparent at times on the CIRA ProxyVis
imagery. Convection has been pulsing as it is sheared to the
northwest of the center. An 0430Z HY-2B scatterometer pass showed 40
kt on the north side of the center. Subjective Dvorak intensities
from PHFO, JTWC and SAB range from 2.5 to 3.5, while objective
intensities range from 31 to 41 kt. Using a blend of these
estimates, will hold the initial intensity at 45 kt.

The initial motion is 280/12 kt, continuing a slightly north of west
path. Greg continues to move along the southern edge of a
subtropical ridge to the north. As it continues to the west today,
it will gain some latitude as it reaches the western end of the
ridge. A building deep layer ridge to the north will then help to
steer Greg to the west-southwest Thursday night and Friday. There
is little change in the forecast track, continuing to closely
follow the HCCA and TVCA which remain near the middle of a
relatively tightly clustered guidance envelope. Along this track,
Greg will pass far south of Hawaii Thursday through Friday with no
direct impacts to the islands.

With the convection at times being displaced to the north of the
center, Greg appears at times to be encountering some additional
southerly shear, but remains over sufficiently warm waters. Little
change is expected in the next 24 to 36 hours, however anticipate
additional bursts of shear, which will hinder strengthening. Beyond
36 hours, the system will move over slightly cooler waters, and
begin to encounter stronger shear from the west. The intensity
forecast has been held at 45 kt through 24 hours, which is on the
high end of the consensus models. Beyond that, the gradual
weakening in the forecast follows the IVCN trend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 11.8N 151.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 12.1N 153.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 12.2N 155.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 12.1N 157.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 11.8N 160.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 11.4N 163.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 11.1N 165.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 10.1N 170.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 161432
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 11
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023

...TROPICAL STORM GREG CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD PATH...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 151.1W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 151.1 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through Thursday, before shifting towards the
west-southwest late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change is expected in the next 24 hours, follow by gradual
weakening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 161431
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
1500 UTC WED AUG 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 151.1W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 15SE 20SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 151.1W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 150.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.1N 153.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.2N 155.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.1N 157.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.8N 160.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.4N 163.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.1N 165.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 10.1N 170.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 151.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 161000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 11.7N 149.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 149.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.2N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.6N 153.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.5N 156.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.3N 159.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.0N 161.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.6N 164.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 10.7N 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
161000Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 149.8W.
16AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z.REFER TO HURRICANE 07E
(FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 160834
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

Satellite continues to show Greg's convection sheared to the west
and northwest of the low level circulation. Subjective Dvorak
intensities ranged from 2.5/35 kt to 3.5/55 kt, and objective
intensities ranged from 33 to 48 kt. Using a blend of these
estimates initial intensity held at 45 kt.

The initial motion is 280/12 kt as Greg takes on a slightly north
of west track. Greg continues to move along the southern edge of the
subtropical ridge to the north. There remains little change in the
guidance through the forecast period and as such, the forecast
remains very close to the previous track. This closely follows
the HCCA and TVCA guidance which remains near the middle of the
relatively tightly clustered guidance envelope. Along this track,
Greg is expected to move a little north of west overnight, and then
to the west through Thursday, before turning to the west-southwest
Thursday night and Friday in response to a deep ridge to the north.
Along this track, Greg will pass far south of Hawaii Thursday
through Friday with no direct impacts to the islands expected.

The environmental conditions will remain relatively unchanged in
the short term, with light south to southeast shear, and SSTs around
27-28C. It is during this time that the system has the greatest
chance for any strengthening. Between hours 36 and 48, the system
will move over slightly cooler waters, and encountering some
additional deep layer shear. This is expected to contribute to a
weakening of the system. The latest intensity guidance has shown an
overall weakening trend, but given the small window of possible
development, have maintained the slight strengthening for the first
24 hours. Beyond that, the intensity forecast follows the weakening
trend of most of the guidance, loosely following the IVCN. Greg
looks to weaken to a post tropical system by hour 96.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 11.8N 149.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 12.2N 151.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 12.6N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 12.5N 156.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 12.3N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 12.0N 161.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 11.6N 164.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 10.7N 169.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 160833
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

...GREG CONTINUES TO TREK WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 149.6W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 149.6 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the
west Wednesday night and Thursday. Greg will then shift toward the
west-southwest late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible through Wednesday,
followed by weakening Thursday and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 160833
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
0900 UTC WED AUG 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 149.6W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 15SE 15SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 149.6W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 149.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.2N 151.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.6N 153.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.5N 156.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.3N 159.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.0N 161.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.6N 164.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 10.7N 169.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 149.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 160411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.08.2023

HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 123.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2023 17.3N 123.6W STRONG
12UTC 16.08.2023 17.0N 126.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.08.2023 16.9N 128.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.08.2023 16.7N 131.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2023 17.0N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 17.0N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 17.5N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2023 17.5N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2023 17.5N 148.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2023 17.4N 151.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 17.0N 154.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 100.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2023 11.9N 100.3W WEAK
12UTC 16.08.2023 12.4N 102.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2023 13.2N 105.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2023 13.9N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2023 13.9N 110.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 15.6N 112.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 16.3N 114.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2023 17.9N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2023 19.2N 117.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2023 20.3N 118.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 22.8N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2023 25.0N 118.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2023 27.0N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2023 28.8N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2023 30.6N 120.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 148.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2023 11.6N 148.1W WEAK
12UTC 16.08.2023 11.9N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2023 12.5N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2023 12.5N 155.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2023 12.2N 158.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 11.7N 161.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 15.7N 31.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.08.2023 16.4N 32.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2023 17.0N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2023 17.2N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2023 17.5N 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 18.1N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2023 19.2N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2023 20.2N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2023 21.5N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2023 22.2N 50.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 20.5N 67.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2023 21.0N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2023 21.7N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 10.5N 16.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2023 10.5N 16.9W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2023 11.1N 19.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160411

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 160400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 11.3N 147.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 147.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.8N 150.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.2N 152.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.5N 155.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.3N 157.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.0N 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.7N 162.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.8N 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
160400Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 148.5W.
16AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 661 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 160243
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 PM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

Deep convection around Tropical Storm Greg has been pulsing through
the day, and a partially exposed low-level circulation center can
be discerned through a thin veil of mid-level clouds on visible
imagery this afternoon. Though light, southeasterly vertical wind
shear is affecting the tropical storm, and fix agencies came in
with a wide range of intensity estimates, from 2.5 out of SAB, to
3.0 at HFO, and 3.5 from JTWC. The current intensity from CIMSS ADT
was recently 47 kt, though that estimate was elevated due to deep
convection that had flared late this morning. Given the lack of
substantial improvement in the satellite presentation and pulsing
nature of the deep convection, a blend of these inputs supports
holding the intensity at 45 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 280/12 kt. Greg appears to
be starting the anticipated turn to the west-northwest toward a
weakness aloft in the deep ridge north of the tropical cyclone. A
general forward motion toward the west-northwest is expected
tonight and much of Wednesday. Confidence is high that Greg will
turn toward the west Wednesday night and Thursday as the ridge aloft
begins to strengthen, causing Greg to pass several hundred miles
south of Hawaii. A turn toward the west-southwest is forecast
Thursday night and Friday as the weakening tropical cyclone is
steered by the deep ridge to the north. The official forecast track
is essentially an update of the prior advisory and lies near TVCE
in the middle of a relatively clustered guidance envelope.

The greatest chance for any additional strengthening will be in the
short term, when vertical wind shear will remain light and the SST
will hold around 28C. The guidance continues to be split into two
camps. The statistical models are showing slight intensification
over the next day or so followed by little change for several days.
Conversely, the dynamical models show little to no short term
intensification, followed by steady weakening through the next
four days, possibly due to drier air aloft disrupting Greg and
slightly cooler SST along the forecast track. The updated intensity
forecast allows for some short term strengthening into Wednesday,
followed by steady weakening as depicted by the bulk of the
dynamical guidance, with Greg becoming post-tropical on Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 11.5N 148.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 11.8N 150.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 12.2N 152.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 12.5N 155.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 12.3N 157.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 12.0N 160.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 11.7N 162.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 10.8N 168.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 160242
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 PM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

...TROPICAL STORM GREG CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 148.3W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 148.3 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest is expected tonight. Greg is forecast to turn
toward the west Wednesday night and Thursday, then shift toward the
west-southwest late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible into Wednesday, followed by
weakening Thursday and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 160241
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
0300 UTC WED AUG 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 148.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 15SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 148.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 147.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.8N 150.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.2N 152.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.5N 155.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.3N 157.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.0N 160.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.7N 162.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 10.8N 168.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 148.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 152200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 146.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 146.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.6N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.1N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.5N 153.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.6N 156.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.3N 159.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.9N 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.0N 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
152200Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 147.4W.
15AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 712 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 152047
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

The satellite presentation of Greg has not changed significantly
this morning, as relatively light, easterly vertical wind shear
continues to restrict outflow within the eastern semicircle. Deep
convection has been persistent to the southwest of the low-level
circulation center, while banding has developed to the north. HFO
and JTWC reported a Dvorak current intensity of 3.0/45 kt, and
CIMSS ADT came in at 41 kt. Given no substantial change in the
satellite presentation, the current intensity will be held at 45 kt
for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 275/12 kt. Greg is moving
toward the west along the southern edge of a deep subtropical
ridge. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today and
Wednesday as Greg advances toward a weakness in the ridge aloft. A
turn toward the west is expected Thursday as the ridge aloft begins
to strengthen, causing Greg to pass several hundred miles south of
Hawaii. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Friday as
the weakening tropical cyclone is steered by the deep ridge to the
north. The forecast track was altered little from the prior
advisory and lies near TVCE in the middle of a relatively clustered
guidance envelope.

The greatest chance for strengthening lies within the next 24 hours
or so, when vertical wind shear is expected to relax slightly and
the SST remains around 28C. The statistical guidance has been
tending to forecast intensification during this time and has been
holding Greg at a higher intensity through the following several
days. Meanwhile, the dynamical guidance is showing little to no
intensification in the next 24 hours, followed by steady weakening,
possibly due to drier air aloft disrupting the tropical cyclone and
slightly cooler SST. The intensity forecast allows for
intensification through Wednesday, followed by weakening from
Thursday onward, with Greg becoming post-tropical on Saturday. This
forecast follows the general trend of HCCA, though the official
forecast is held slightly higher than this guidance through the
next four days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 11.2N 147.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 11.6N 149.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 12.1N 151.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 12.5N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 12.6N 156.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 12.3N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 11.9N 161.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 11.0N 166.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 152042
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

...TROPICAL STORM GREG MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 147.2W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 790 MI...1265 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 147.2 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest is expected today. Greg is forecast to turn
toward the west on Thursday, then shift toward the west-southwest
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected through the next day, followed by
weakening Thursday and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 152042
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 147.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 10SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 15SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 147.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 146.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 11.6N 149.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.1N 151.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.5N 153.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.6N 156.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.3N 159.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 11.9N 161.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 11.0N 166.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 147.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 11.1N 145.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 145.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.4N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.9N 150.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.4N 152.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.6N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.4N 157.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.1N 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.3N 165.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 146.0W.
15AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E
(FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 151450
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

Deep convection has increased over the center of the system during
the past few hours, which is a result of the persistent east-
southeasterly shear over the past 12 to 18 h easing. Recent
microwave data from AMSR2 (1137 UTC) showed evidence of an inner
core that has developed, which has improved from previous microwave
data. Based on the microwave data and the 12 UTC subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates ranging from 35 to 45 kt between PHFO, SAB, AND
JTWC, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory remains at 270/12 kt, as Greg
continues to move south of the subtropical ridge. Greg is forecast
to gradually turn west-northwestward through the day today while
being steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge to the north, which
will persist through late Wednesday. Thereafter, a gradual turn to
the west-southwest is forecast as the weakening system becomes
steered by the low- to mid-level flow. This forecast track is very
similar to the previous forecast, and shows Greg passing well south
of the Hawaiian Islands Wednesday night through Thursday night.
This forecast track closely follows a combination of the previous
forecast, HCCA, and TVCE.

The tropical storm has a brief window to intensify over the next 36
h as it tracks over warm SSTs (27-28C) and remains in a relatively
moist environment with minimal shear. Therefore, the forecast
depicts some strengthening within the initial 36 h, which is
supported by the latest intensity consensus aids. Beyond that,
drier mid-level air along with the potential for a slight increase
in shear and cooler waters should result in a weakening trend, with
Greg becoming post-tropical on day 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 11.1N 145.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 11.4N 147.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 11.9N 150.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 12.4N 152.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 12.6N 155.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 12.4N 157.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 12.1N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 11.3N 165.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 151447
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

Deep convection has increased over the center of the system during
the past few hours, which is a a result of the persistent east-
southeasterly shear over the past 12 to 18 h easing. Recent
microwave data from AMSR2 (1137 UTC) showed evidence of an inner
core that has developed, which has improved from previous microwave
data. Based on the microwave data and the 12 UTC subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates ranging from 35 to 45 kt between PHFO, SAB, AND
JTWC, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory remains at 270/12 kt, as Greg
continues to move south of the subtropical ridge. Greg is forecast
to gradually turn west-northwestward through the day today while
being steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge to the north, which
will persist through late Wednesday. Thereafter, a gradual turn to
the west-southwest is forecast as the weakening system becomes
steered by the low- to mid-level flow. This forecast track is very
similar to the previous forecast, and shows Greg passing well south
of the Hawaiian Islands Wednesday night through Thursday night.
This forecast track closely follows a combination of the previous
forecast, HCCA, and TVCE.

The tropical storm has a brief window to intensify over the next 36
h as it tracks over warm SSTs (27-28C) and remains in a relatively
moist environment with minimal shear. Therefore, the forecast
depicts some strengthening within the initial 36 h, which is
supported by the latest intensity consensus aids. Beyond that,
drier mid-level air along with the potential for a slight increase
in shear and cooler waters should result in a weakening trend, with
Greg becoming post-tropical on day 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 11.1N 145.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 11.4N 147.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 11.9N 150.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 12.4N 152.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 12.6N 155.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 12.4N 157.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 12.1N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 11.3N 165.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 151446
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023

...TROPICAL STORM GREG MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 145.9W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1710 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 145.9 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through the next 36 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 151446
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 145.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 145.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 145.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.4N 147.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.9N 150.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.4N 152.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.6N 155.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.4N 157.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.1N 160.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 11.3N 165.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 145.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 11.1N 143.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 143.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 11.3N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 11.7N 148.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.2N 151.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.6N 153.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.6N 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.3N 158.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.5N 163.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
151000Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 144.7W.
15AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 828 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E
(FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 150853
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

Deep convection associated with Greg continues to develop over and
west of the low-level circulation this evening, due to a slight
increase in easterly shear in the past few hours that was estimated
to be around 5 to 10 kt. Recent SSMIS (0359Z) microwave data,
however, showed some evidence of a formative inner core beginning
to evolve. The various 06 UTC objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates ranged from 35-45 kt. As a result, the initial
intensity is raised to 45 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/12 kt, as Greg
continues to move south of the subtropical ridge. Greg is forecast
to gradually turn west-northwestward over the next couple of days
while being steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge to the north.
Thereafter, a gradual turn to the west-southwest is forecast as the
weakening system becomes steered by the low- to mid-level flow.
This forecast track is slightly south of the previous track through
day 2, with very little differences thereafter as Greg passes well
south of the Hawaiian Islands. This forecast track closely follows
a combination of the previous forecast, HCCA, and TVCE.

The tropical storm has a brief window to intensify over the next 24
to 36 h as it tracks over warm SSTs (27-28C) and remains in a
relatively moist environment with minimal shear. Therefore, the
forecast depicts some strengthening within the initial 24 h, then
remains steady through 36 h, which is supported by the latest
intensity consensus aids. Beyond that, drier mid-level air along
with an increase in shear and slightly cooler waters should result
in a weakening trend, with Greg becoming post-tropical by day 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 11.2N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 11.3N 146.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 11.7N 148.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 12.2N 151.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 12.6N 153.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 12.6N 156.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 12.3N 158.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 11.5N 163.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 150853
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

...GREG STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 144.6W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1805 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 144.6 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through the next 24 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Jelsema

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 150852
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
0900 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 144.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 144.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 143.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.3N 146.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 15SE 15SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 11.7N 148.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 15SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.2N 151.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 15SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.6N 153.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.6N 156.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.3N 158.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 163.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 144.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 95.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2023 0 12.0N 95.4W 1008 24
1200UTC 15.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 119.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2023 0 16.1N 119.6W 951 82
1200UTC 15.08.2023 12 17.0N 121.4W 954 79
0000UTC 16.08.2023 24 17.3N 124.0W 971 61
1200UTC 16.08.2023 36 17.5N 126.8W 987 50
0000UTC 17.08.2023 48 17.7N 129.9W 994 43
1200UTC 17.08.2023 60 18.1N 133.5W 1002 35
0000UTC 18.08.2023 72 18.1N 136.9W 1005 28
1200UTC 18.08.2023 84 18.1N 140.5W 1007 26
0000UTC 19.08.2023 96 18.1N 143.9W 1008 24
1200UTC 19.08.2023 108 17.7N 147.2W 1008 26
0000UTC 20.08.2023 120 18.0N 150.2W 1008 26
1200UTC 20.08.2023 132 17.8N 152.6W 1010 27
0000UTC 21.08.2023 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 142.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2023 0 11.3N 142.7W 1003 35
1200UTC 15.08.2023 12 11.4N 145.1W 1003 35
0000UTC 16.08.2023 24 11.9N 147.7W 1003 35
1200UTC 16.08.2023 36 12.2N 150.7W 1004 34
0000UTC 17.08.2023 48 12.5N 153.3W 1006 32
1200UTC 17.08.2023 60 12.4N 155.8W 1007 30
0000UTC 18.08.2023 72 11.9N 158.4W 1008 28
1200UTC 18.08.2023 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.2N 116.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2023 96 15.2N 116.6W 1003 31
1200UTC 19.08.2023 108 16.4N 117.7W 1002 33
0000UTC 20.08.2023 120 17.5N 119.8W 1001 32
1200UTC 20.08.2023 132 19.2N 120.3W 1003 34
0000UTC 21.08.2023 144 20.8N 121.7W 1004 26
1200UTC 21.08.2023 156 21.8N 122.7W 1006 23
0000UTC 22.08.2023 168 22.5N 123.1W 1006 23

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150412

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 150412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 95.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2023 12.0N 95.4W WEAK
12UTC 15.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 119.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2023 16.1N 119.6W INTENSE
12UTC 15.08.2023 17.0N 121.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2023 17.3N 124.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.08.2023 17.5N 126.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.08.2023 17.7N 129.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.08.2023 18.1N 133.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2023 18.1N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 18.1N 140.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 18.1N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2023 17.7N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2023 18.0N 150.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2023 17.8N 152.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 142.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2023 11.3N 142.7W WEAK
12UTC 15.08.2023 11.4N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2023 11.9N 147.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2023 12.2N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2023 12.5N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2023 12.4N 155.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2023 11.9N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.2N 116.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.08.2023 15.2N 116.6W WEAK
12UTC 19.08.2023 16.4N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2023 17.5N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2023 19.2N 120.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 20.8N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2023 21.8N 122.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2023 22.5N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150412

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 150400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 11.3N 142.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 142.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.5N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.7N 147.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 12.1N 149.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.7N 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.8N 154.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.6N 157.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.8N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150400Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 143.4W.
15AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 150237
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 PM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

Greg's convection continues to pulse, and remains concentrated on
the west side of the center due to southeasterly shear in the
vicinity. Objective Dvorak intensities range from 34 to 42
kt, and subjective intensities from PHFO, SAB and JTWC are between
2.5 and 3.0. Using a blend of these estimates, maintaining the
initial intensity at 40 kt.

The initial motion is 270/10 kt. Greg continues to move to the west
on the southern edge of the subtropical ridge to the north. Expect
little change in this over the next couple of days, with Greg
heading in a west to slightly west-northwest direction. As the
system reaches the western edge of the ridge, it is expected to
weaken and slowly take a turn to the southwest. On this path, Greg
will pass far south of the Hawaiian Islands Thursday and Friday,
with no direct impacts to the state. The forecast track remains
similar to the previous forecast, with some influence from the HCCA
and TVCE. The track slows the forward progress a bit for hours 36 to
60 based on the HCCA and TVCE, and is a touch further north around
hour 60.

Greg remains over very warm waters, with weakening southeasterly
shear. Over the next 36 hours, the shear is expected to weaken,
which will allow Greg to slowly strengthen. The forecast intensity
is on the high end of the consensus models during this time, and
then follows the gradual weakening trend in the guidance. Between
hours 48 and 60, Greg will move over slightly cooler waters, with an
increase in deep layer shear, and mid-level dry air beginning to
feed into the system. These all contribute to the weakening of the
system between days 2 and 3, with Greg becoming post-tropical on day
4, and opening up into a trough and dissipating by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 11.3N 143.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 11.5N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 11.7N 147.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 12.1N 149.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 12.7N 152.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 12.8N 154.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 12.6N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 11.8N 162.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 150236
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 PM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

...LITTLE CHANGE IN GREG AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 143.1W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 143.1 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward
trend is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 150236
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 143.1W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 143.1W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 142.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 11.5N 145.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.7N 147.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.1N 149.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.7N 152.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.8N 154.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.6N 157.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 11.8N 162.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 143.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 11.3N 141.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 141.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 11.4N 143.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 11.7N 145.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 12.0N 148.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.4N 150.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.7N 153.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.6N 155.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.0N 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.4N 166.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142200Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 141.9W.
14AUG23. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 948 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 142034
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

Greg has demonstrated pulsing convection over the last several hours
on the western side of the low level center, due to southeasterly
shear in the vicinity. Subjective Dvorak intensities from PHFO,
JTWC and SAB ranged from 2.5 to 3.0, and objective intensities
ranged from 35 to 41 kt. Using a blend of the subjective and
objective estimates, the initial intensity has been raised to 40
kt.

The initial motion is 270/10 kt, and Greg is expected to continue
to move to the west today, along the southern edge of the
subtropical ridge to the north. Little change is expected in this
steering flow over the next couple of days, so expect Greg to
continue to move to the west in the short term, and then turn to
the west-southwest as it reaches the western edge of the ridge. As
the system weakens beyond that, the system is expected is expected
to shift slowly southward. On this path, Greg will pass far south of
the Hawaiian Islands on Thursday and Friday, with no direct impacts
in the state. The forecast track remains similar to the previous
forecast, splitting the difference between the HCCA and TVCE
particularly starting from day 3 onwards.

Although Greg will remain over very warm waters throughout the
forecast period, the southeasterly shear is expected to
prevent significant strengthening in the short term. The shear is
expected to weaken a little over the 12 to 36 hour period which
would allow Greg to strengthen some. Beyond that, guidance suggests
the shear will once again increase, with some of the models also
indicating drier air being ingested into the system. This would
contribute further to a weakening trend beyond hour 60, with Greg
weakening to a depression on day 4, and becoming post-tropical on
day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 11.3N 141.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 11.4N 143.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 11.7N 145.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 12.0N 148.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 12.4N 150.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 12.7N 153.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 12.6N 155.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 12.0N 161.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 11.4N 166.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 142033
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

...GREG MOVES WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 141.7W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 141.7 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward
trend is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster M Ballard

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 142032
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
2100 UTC MON AUG 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 141.7W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 141.7W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 141.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 11.4N 143.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.7N 145.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.0N 148.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.4N 150.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.7N 153.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.6N 155.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 12.0N 161.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 11.4N 166.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 141.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER M BALLARD

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 141612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.08.2023

HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 118.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2023 0 15.9N 118.1W 970 78
0000UTC 15.08.2023 12 16.6N 119.3W 963 74
1200UTC 15.08.2023 24 17.5N 121.2W 968 66
0000UTC 16.08.2023 36 18.1N 123.8W 976 60
1200UTC 16.08.2023 48 18.5N 126.6W 991 47
0000UTC 17.08.2023 60 19.1N 129.7W 998 40
1200UTC 17.08.2023 72 19.8N 133.3W 1005 32
0000UTC 18.08.2023 84 20.2N 136.9W 1009 25
1200UTC 18.08.2023 96 20.3N 140.7W 1010 25
0000UTC 19.08.2023 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N 140.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.08.2023 0 11.2N 140.2W 1005 28
0000UTC 15.08.2023 12 11.6N 142.5W 1005 31
1200UTC 15.08.2023 24 11.7N 145.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 16.08.2023 36 12.0N 148.0W 1004 34
1200UTC 16.08.2023 48 12.0N 150.9W 1005 33
0000UTC 17.08.2023 60 12.4N 153.5W 1006 31
1200UTC 17.08.2023 72 12.3N 156.0W 1007 29
0000UTC 18.08.2023 84 11.8N 158.5W 1008 27
1200UTC 18.08.2023 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.4N 112.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.08.2023 72 12.4N 112.5W 1004 25
0000UTC 18.08.2023 84 13.0N 114.4W 1003 26
1200UTC 18.08.2023 96 14.2N 117.2W 1002 31
0000UTC 19.08.2023 108 14.5N 118.4W 1001 32
1200UTC 19.08.2023 120 16.0N 120.0W 1001 34
0000UTC 20.08.2023 132 16.7N 120.9W 1000 35
1200UTC 20.08.2023 144 17.8N 122.5W 1003 31
0000UTC 21.08.2023 156 18.2N 124.0W 1004 27
1200UTC 21.08.2023 168 18.9N 125.2W 1006 24

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141612

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 141612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.08.2023

HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 118.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.08.2023 15.9N 118.1W STRONG
00UTC 15.08.2023 16.6N 119.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.08.2023 17.5N 121.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.08.2023 18.1N 123.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2023 18.5N 126.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.08.2023 19.1N 129.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.08.2023 19.8N 133.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2023 20.2N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 20.3N 140.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N 140.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.08.2023 11.2N 140.2W WEAK
00UTC 15.08.2023 11.6N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2023 11.7N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2023 12.0N 148.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2023 12.0N 150.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2023 12.4N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2023 12.3N 156.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2023 11.8N 158.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.4N 112.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.08.2023 12.4N 112.5W WEAK
00UTC 18.08.2023 13.0N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2023 14.2N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2023 14.5N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2023 16.0N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2023 16.7N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2023 17.8N 122.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2023 18.2N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2023 18.9N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141612

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 141600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 11.3N 140.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 140.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 11.4N 142.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.6N 144.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.8N 147.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 12.2N 149.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.6N 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.7N 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.3N 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.7N 164.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
141600Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 141.1W. 14AUG23.
TROPICAL STORM 08E (GREG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
987 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141200Z IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 07E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 141437
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

Deep convection associated with Greg continues to develop near and
west of the low-level circulation this morning, which has become
partially exposed due to southeasterly shear estimated to be near
10 to 15 kt. An ASCAT pass from several hours ago, however,
revealed the system has a well-defined circulation, with 35 kt
winds depicted north of the center. Based on the ASCAT data and
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranging from T2.0 to T3.0
between PHFO, SAB, AND JTWC, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/11 kt, as Greg
continues to move south of the subtropical ridge. No significant
change in this steering is expected over the next couple of days.
Thereafter, a gradual turn to the west-southwest is forecast as the
weakening system becomes steered by low- to mid-level flow. Similar
to the previous advisory, the track guidance continues to shift
slowly southward, with Greg passing far south of the Hawaiian
Islands later this week. This forecast track reflects that and lies
near a combination of the previous forecast, HCCA, and TVCE.

Despite the tropical storm being located over very warm waters and
within a relatively moist environment, the aforementioned
southeasterly shear will continue to inhibit strengthening
initially. Guidance shows this shear persisting over the next 12 to
18 h before trending down. Therefore, the intensity is held steady
for the first 12 h, then followed by some modest strengthening
between 24 and 48 h. Beyond that, drier mid-level air along with
increasing shear and slightly cooler waters should result in a
gradual weakening trend, with Greg becoming post-tropical by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 11.3N 140.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 11.4N 142.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 11.6N 144.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 11.8N 147.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 12.2N 149.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 12.6N 152.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 12.7N 154.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 12.3N 159.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 11.7N 164.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 141434
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082023
500 AM HST Mon Aug 14 2023

...GREG ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 140.9W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 1110 MI...1780 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 140.9 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward motion
is expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 141432
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082023
1500 UTC MON AUG 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 140.9W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 140.9W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 140.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 11.4N 142.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 11.6N 144.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.8N 147.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.2N 149.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.6N 152.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.7N 154.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 12.3N 159.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 11.7N 164.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 140.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$

FORECASTER GIBBS/BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 141009
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082023
0900 UTC MON AUG 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 139.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 139.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 139.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.4N 141.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 11.5N 143.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.7N 146.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.1N 148.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.5N 151.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.8N 153.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 12.7N 158.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 12.1N 163.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 139.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOTCMCP3...WMO HEADER WTPA23 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 140857
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082023
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 13 2023

After the release of the previous advisory a burst of deep
convection developed closer to the center of the cyclone. However,
easterly shear has caused the area of convection to propagate
westward away from the center, leaving it exposed. Recently
arriving ASCAT overpasses show that the depression has
strengthened into a tropical storm. Both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C
revealed peak winds of 34-35 kt to the north-northwest of the
center.

Greg is moving westward or 275 degrees at 11 kt. A narrow
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to
steer it westward to west-northwestward during the next 2 to 3 days.
After that time, the tropical storm is forecast to gradually
weaken and come under the influence of the low-level trade wind
flow. That should cause the cyclone to turn westward or
west-southwestward late in the period. The track model envelope
shifted southward this cycle so the NHC forecast was adjusted
accordingly. The new forecast track is near the HFIP corrected
consensus aid, but it is not as far south as the typically reliable
GFS and ECMWF models.

The tropical storm is located over SSTs of around 28 degrees
Celsius, but within an area of light to moderate easterly shear.
These conditions are expected to allow for some modest
strengthening during the next couple of days. After that time,
slightly cool waters, the continuation of easterly shear, and a
drier mid-level air mass are likely to cause gradual weakening.
Much of the intensity guidance predict a lower peak intensity
this cycle, and the official forecast has been adjusted
slightly downward. It should be noted that the ECMWF and GFS show
the system degenerating into a trough of low pressure by day 5.
This scenario is certainly possible, but not reflected in the
latest official forecast.

The depression will cross into the central Pacific basin by 1200
UTC today. Therefore, the next advisory on this system will be
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at 1500 UTC or
500 AM HST. Information about this system will continue to be
available on the web at hurricanes.gov

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 11.3N 139.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 11.4N 141.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 11.5N 143.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 11.7N 146.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 12.1N 148.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 12.5N 151.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 12.8N 153.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 12.7N 158.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 12.1N 163.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 140855
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082023
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 13 2023

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GREG...
...NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 139.8W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 139.8 West. Greg is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected to continue during the
next few days. On this track, Greg will move into the central
Pacific basin overnight.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible during the next
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on Greg can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 500 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3, WMO header
WTPA33 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at
hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 140855
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082023
0900 UTC MON AUG 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 139.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 139.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 139.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.4N 141.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 11.5N 143.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.7N 146.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.1N 148.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.5N 151.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.8N 153.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 12.7N 158.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 12.1N 163.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 139.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOTCMCP3...WMO HEADER WTPA23 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 140243
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082023
0300 UTC MON AUG 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 138.6W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 138.6W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 138.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.5N 140.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 11.6N 142.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 11.9N 145.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.4N 147.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.0N 150.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.6N 152.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 13.6N 157.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 12.9N 162.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 138.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

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