Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for EMILY-23 Off-shore from 20 Aug 2023 15:00 UTC to 21 Aug 2023 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for EMILY-23

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

24/08 04:16 WTNT82EGRR240415

24/08 04:16 WTNT80EGRR240415

23/08 16:14 WTNT82EGRR231613

23/08 16:13 WTNT80EGRR231613

21/08 14:33 WTNT42KNHC211430

21/08 14:33 WTNT22KNHC211429

21/08 14:32 WTNT32KNHC211430

21/08 08:46 WTNT42KNHC210844

21/08 08:46 WTNT32KNHC210843

21/08 08:45 WTNT22KNHC210842

21/08 03:51 WTNT22KNHC210337CCA

21/08 02:45 WTNT42KNHC210242

21/08 02:44 WTNT32KNHC210241

21/08 02:44 WTNT22KNHC210241

20/08 20:36 WTNT42KNHC202033

20/08 20:35 WTNT32KNHC202032

20/08 20:35 WTNT22KNHC202032

20/08 14:41 WTNT42KNHC201438

20/08 14:37 WTNT32KNHC201435

20/08 14:37 WTNT22KNHC201434

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 240415

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 99.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2023 0 12.5N 99.2W 1006 29
1200UTC 24.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 37.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2023 0 17.7N 37.2W 1010 21
1200UTC 24.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 70.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2023 0 20.7N 70.4W 1002 42
1200UTC 24.08.2023 12 21.9N 70.2W 1003 31
0000UTC 25.08.2023 24 22.6N 68.8W 1004 34
1200UTC 25.08.2023 36 23.0N 67.9W 1003 36
0000UTC 26.08.2023 48 23.3N 67.5W 1002 36
1200UTC 26.08.2023 60 23.7N 67.7W 1001 39
0000UTC 27.08.2023 72 24.1N 68.2W 999 42
1200UTC 27.08.2023 84 25.0N 68.7W 998 42
0000UTC 28.08.2023 96 26.3N 69.8W 996 39
1200UTC 28.08.2023 108 27.5N 71.0W 994 44
0000UTC 29.08.2023 120 29.3N 71.2W 994 46
1200UTC 29.08.2023 132 31.6N 71.2W 993 48
0000UTC 30.08.2023 144 34.3N 70.4W 990 51
1200UTC 30.08.2023 156 36.9N 68.4W 987 55
0000UTC 31.08.2023 168 40.9N 63.5W 982 55

TROPICAL STORM EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 49.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2023 0 28.4N 49.4W 1009 26
1200UTC 24.08.2023 12 31.0N 49.1W 1009 29
0000UTC 25.08.2023 24 34.2N 49.0W 1009 29
1200UTC 25.08.2023 36 37.5N 48.0W 1009 35
0000UTC 26.08.2023 48 40.5N 46.1W 1009 35
1200UTC 26.08.2023 60 43.6N 44.3W 1010 34
0000UTC 27.08.2023 72 47.2N 41.3W 1011 30
1200UTC 27.08.2023 84 49.8N 38.0W 1011 28
0000UTC 28.08.2023 96 52.7N 31.9W 1010 28
1200UTC 28.08.2023 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 14.4N 23.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2023 72 14.8N 25.8W 1009 27
1200UTC 27.08.2023 84 15.5N 29.8W 1009 28
0000UTC 28.08.2023 96 16.4N 33.8W 1010 28
1200UTC 28.08.2023 108 17.2N 37.1W 1010 30
0000UTC 29.08.2023 120 18.1N 40.3W 1011 29
1200UTC 29.08.2023 132 18.7N 42.9W 1011 31
0000UTC 30.08.2023 144 19.6N 46.0W 1011 32
1200UTC 30.08.2023 156 20.0N 48.5W 1010 33
0000UTC 31.08.2023 168 20.3N 51.1W 1010 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.6N 123.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2023 72 13.6N 123.3W 1004 28
1200UTC 27.08.2023 84 14.7N 127.1W 1004 31
0000UTC 28.08.2023 96 15.9N 130.1W 1005 26
1200UTC 28.08.2023 108 16.6N 133.3W 1007 25
0000UTC 29.08.2023 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.1N 52.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2023 84 28.1N 52.5W 1013 26
0000UTC 28.08.2023 96 30.6N 53.5W 1013 25
1200UTC 28.08.2023 108 32.2N 54.2W 1013 27
0000UTC 29.08.2023 120 33.3N 54.9W 1013 24
1200UTC 29.08.2023 132 34.2N 54.9W 1012 31
0000UTC 30.08.2023 144 34.9N 54.4W 1012 35
1200UTC 30.08.2023 156 35.5N 53.7W 1010 38
0000UTC 31.08.2023 168 36.4N 52.7W 1009 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 22.1N 83.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 96 22.1N 83.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 28.08.2023 108 23.6N 82.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 29.08.2023 120 24.9N 81.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 29.08.2023 132 27.2N 80.2W 1007 26
0000UTC 30.08.2023 144 28.2N 80.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 30.08.2023 156 30.3N 78.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 31.08.2023 168 32.1N 76.1W 1006 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 16.0N 21.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2023 132 15.0N 23.0W 1008 24
0000UTC 30.08.2023 144 15.3N 25.5W 1008 28
1200UTC 30.08.2023 156 15.0N 28.1W 1006 27
0000UTC 31.08.2023 168 15.0N 29.8W 1005 28

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240415

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 240415

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 99.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2023 12.5N 99.2W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 37.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2023 17.7N 37.2W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 70.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2023 20.7N 70.4W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2023 21.9N 70.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2023 22.6N 68.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2023 23.0N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2023 23.3N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2023 23.7N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2023 24.1N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2023 25.0N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2023 26.3N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2023 27.5N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2023 29.3N 71.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2023 31.6N 71.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2023 34.3N 70.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2023 36.9N 68.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2023 40.9N 63.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 49.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2023 28.4N 49.4W WEAK
12UTC 24.08.2023 31.0N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2023 34.2N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2023 37.5N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2023 40.5N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2023 43.6N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2023 47.2N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2023 49.8N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2023 52.7N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 14.4N 23.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2023 14.8N 25.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.08.2023 15.5N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2023 16.4N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2023 17.2N 37.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2023 18.1N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2023 18.7N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2023 19.6N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2023 20.0N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2023 20.3N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.6N 123.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2023 13.6N 123.3W WEAK
12UTC 27.08.2023 14.7N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2023 15.9N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2023 16.6N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.1N 52.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2023 28.1N 52.5W WEAK
00UTC 28.08.2023 30.6N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2023 32.2N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2023 33.3N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2023 34.2N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2023 34.9N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2023 35.5N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2023 36.4N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 22.1N 83.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2023 22.1N 83.2W WEAK
12UTC 28.08.2023 23.6N 82.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2023 24.9N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2023 27.2N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2023 28.2N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2023 30.3N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2023 32.1N 76.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 16.0N 21.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2023 15.0N 23.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2023 15.3N 25.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2023 15.0N 28.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2023 15.0N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240415

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 231613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAROLD ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 103.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2023 0 29.7N 103.0W 1010 12
0000UTC 24.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 35.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2023 0 16.8N 35.7W 1010 18
0000UTC 24.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2023 0 17.8N 71.3W 1005 32
0000UTC 24.08.2023 12 20.5N 70.6W 1004 33
1200UTC 24.08.2023 24 22.0N 69.6W 1003 35
0000UTC 25.08.2023 36 22.8N 68.4W 1003 35
1200UTC 25.08.2023 48 23.3N 67.5W 1002 39
0000UTC 26.08.2023 60 23.5N 67.0W 1000 40
1200UTC 26.08.2023 72 23.9N 67.2W 996 45
0000UTC 27.08.2023 84 24.5N 67.8W 992 48
1200UTC 27.08.2023 96 25.8N 69.1W 988 46
0000UTC 28.08.2023 108 26.7N 70.3W 983 49
1200UTC 28.08.2023 120 28.0N 70.8W 982 52
0000UTC 29.08.2023 132 29.7N 71.3W 979 62
1200UTC 29.08.2023 144 31.6N 70.8W 972 66
0000UTC 30.08.2023 156 33.8N 69.4W 969 66
1200UTC 30.08.2023 168 36.7N 66.8W 970 67

TROPICAL STORM EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2023 0 27.2N 49.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 24.08.2023 12 28.7N 49.5W 1008 29
1200UTC 24.08.2023 24 31.4N 49.2W 1007 30
0000UTC 25.08.2023 36 34.1N 48.7W 1008 30
1200UTC 25.08.2023 48 37.4N 47.6W 1006 38
0000UTC 26.08.2023 60 40.6N 45.8W 1006 36
1200UTC 26.08.2023 72 44.4N 43.9W 1006 36
0000UTC 27.08.2023 84 48.0N 40.4W 1008 34
1200UTC 27.08.2023 96 50.3N 34.3W 1009 36
0000UTC 28.08.2023 108 52.3N 24.8W 1009 31
1200UTC 28.08.2023 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.8N 126.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2023 96 14.2N 128.4W 1004 30
0000UTC 28.08.2023 108 15.6N 131.7W 1005 30
1200UTC 28.08.2023 120 16.7N 135.0W 1007 27
0000UTC 29.08.2023 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 28.2N 54.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 108 28.2N 54.2W 1012 26
1200UTC 28.08.2023 120 29.2N 55.1W 1012 32
0000UTC 29.08.2023 132 30.0N 55.6W 1011 37
1200UTC 29.08.2023 144 31.0N 55.8W 1009 40
0000UTC 30.08.2023 156 32.5N 56.3W 1009 41
1200UTC 30.08.2023 168 34.4N 56.4W 1007 38

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231613

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 231613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.08.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAROLD ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 103.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2023 29.7N 103.0W WEAK
00UTC 24.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 35.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2023 16.8N 35.7W WEAK
00UTC 24.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2023 17.8N 71.3W WEAK
00UTC 24.08.2023 20.5N 70.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2023 22.0N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2023 22.8N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2023 23.3N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2023 23.5N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2023 23.9N 67.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2023 24.5N 67.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.08.2023 25.8N 69.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2023 26.7N 70.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2023 28.0N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2023 29.7N 71.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2023 31.6N 70.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2023 33.8N 69.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2023 36.7N 66.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.08.2023 27.2N 49.5W WEAK
00UTC 24.08.2023 28.7N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2023 31.4N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2023 34.1N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2023 37.4N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2023 40.6N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2023 44.4N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2023 48.0N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2023 50.3N 34.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2023 52.3N 24.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.8N 126.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2023 14.2N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2023 15.6N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2023 16.7N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 28.2N 54.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2023 28.2N 54.2W WEAK
12UTC 28.08.2023 29.2N 55.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2023 30.0N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2023 31.0N 55.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2023 32.5N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2023 34.4N 56.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231613

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 211430
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Emily has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 15 hours and no
longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Although sea
surface temperatures are sufficiently warm to support occasional
bursts of convection, strong wind shear and a very dry environment
should prevent it from re-organizing as a tropical cyclone for at
least the next couple days. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based
on ASCAT-B data valid at 1200 UTC.

In about 3 days, the remnant low is forecast to turn northward as it
encounters a deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic. While it
turns, Emily could briefly encounter a more favorable upper-level
wind pattern, which could support the redevelopment of convection.
However, the low-level center may also become stretched and
ill-defined at the same time. Regeneration as a tropical cyclone
does not appear likely enough to explicitly forecast it at this
time. Information on the potential for regeneration will be included
in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary. Future
information on Emily can also be found in High Seas forecasts issued
by the National Hurricane Center and Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 21.1N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 22/0000Z 21.6N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1200Z 22.5N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z 25.2N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z 27.1N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z 29.5N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 211429
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072023
1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 41.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 41.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 41.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 43.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.2N 48.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.1N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 49.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 41.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211430
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...EMILY IS NOW A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON EMILY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 41.9W
ABOUT 1225 MI...1965 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily
was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 41.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue today.
Emily could turn more toward the north-northwest or north by
mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is expected during the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210844
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
500 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

During the past few hours, Emily has rapidly lost what remained of
its deep convection displaced well to the northeast of the exposed
surface center. The initial intensity estimate is lowered to 35 kt
for this advisory and is supported by the available subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates. The environment
surrounding Emily is forecast to become increasingly belligerent by
tonight due to deep-layer shear increasing to near 40 kt and a an
intruding dry stable air mass. These negatively contributing
atmospheric conditions should induce gradual weakening, and Emily
should become a post-tropical cyclone by this evening.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10
kt. During the next several days, Emily should maintain a general
west-northwestward motion while being steered by a low to
mid-tropospheric ridge to the north. By the 48 hour period, a
gradual turn northward is expected after Emily degenerates to
remnant low, rounding the southern periphery of the aforementioned
subtropical ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, and the NHC track forecast is basically an update of the
previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 20.7N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 21.1N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 22/0600Z 21.9N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1800Z 22.8N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0600Z 24.2N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1800Z 26.1N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0600Z 28.3N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z 33.6N 50.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210843
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
500 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 41.1W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 41.1 West. Emily is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days. A turn to the north is forecast by the middle
part of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Emily could
become a post-tropical cyclone by this evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210842
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072023
0900 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 41.1W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 41.1W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 40.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.1N 42.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.9N 44.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N 46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N 48.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N 49.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.3N 49.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N 50.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 41.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210337 CCA
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072023
0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

CORRECTED TO ADD 34-KT WIND RADII AT 22/00Z

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 40.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 40.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 39.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...140NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.4N 45.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.3N 48.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 49.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 32.9N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 39.0N 49.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 40.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210242
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

Emily continues to be in a highly sheared environment this evening,
with convection displaced well to the northeast of the exposed
low-level center. A recent scatterometer (ASCAT-B) had a partial
pass over the system that showed winds around 40
kt. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB and objective
satellite CIMMS ADT and AiDT were slightly lower with this
advisory. Given the satellite estimates and scatterometer
wind data, the intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.

Emily likely reached peak intensity earlier this afternoon, with a
gradual weakening trend expected over the next day or so. The
system is in a highly sheared environment, with shear forecast to
increase even more over the next 24 to 36 hours. Models are in
fairly good agreement that the system will become a remnant low in
a couple of days. While the NHC forecast has the system remaining a
remnant low throughout the period, there is some guidance, including
the ECMWF, that dissipate the system earlier. The intensity
guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and the forecast lies
near the corrected model consensus aids.

The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 8 kt, and a general
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days while the storm moves along the southwestern
periphery of the ridge. After that time, a turn to the north is
forecast while the storm moves around the west side of the ridge
and toward a weakness. The new track forecast is similar to the
previous, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope closest
to model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.5N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 22.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1200Z 25.3N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z 27.5N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z 32.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0000Z 39.0N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210241
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...EMILY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 40.2W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 40.2 West. Emily is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days. A turn to the north is forecast by the middle of
the week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Emily could
become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210241
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072023
0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 40.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 40.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 39.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.4N 45.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.3N 48.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 49.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 32.9N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 39.0N 49.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 40.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 202033
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

Emily is feeling the effects of southwesterly vertical wind shear
with the low-level center fully exposed to the southwest of the main
area of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt
based on the earlier ASCAT data and the TAFB Dvorak satellite
estimate. The environment around Emily is expected to become
increasingly hostile the next couple of days with shear increasing
to near 40 kt while the system remains in relatively stable air.
These unfavorable atmospheric conditions should cause steady
weakening, and Emily could become a remnant low in a few of days.

The storm is moving to the northwest at 8 kt, and a general
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next 2 to
3 days while the storm moves along the southwestern periphery of
the ridge. After that time, a turn to the north is forecast while
the storm moves around the west side of the ridge and toward a
weakness. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one and
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 20.2N 39.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 20.7N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 21.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 22.1N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 23.1N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0600Z 24.5N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z 26.4N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z 31.2N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1800Z 37.5N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...EMILY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 39.4W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 39.4 West. Emily is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days. A turn to the north is forecast by the middle of
the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Emily could become a
post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 202032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 39.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 39.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 39.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N 40.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.3N 42.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.1N 44.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.1N 46.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 49.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 31.2N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 37.5N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 39.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 201438
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

The large area of low pressure we have been monitoring
over the last several days to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands
has finally developed a well-defined circulation per recently
received satellite wind data. In addition, the scatterometer wind
data also suggest the system has developed a robust wind field on
its northern semicircle, with ASCAT-B/C both showing believable
wind retrievals in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore, advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Emily this morning with maximum
sustained winds of 45 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest
1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix.

The estimated motion of the tropical storm is slowly off to the
west-northwest, at 300/9 kt. Over the next several days, Emily
should maintain a general west-northwestward motion as it remains
steered by a low-level ridge centered to its north. A gradual turn
to the north is anticipated after Emily becomes a remnant low,
rounding the southern periphery of this subtropical ridge. The track
guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the
initial track forecast lies in between the simple and corrected
consensus aids.

Emily might already be near its peak intensity, as vertical wind
shear is expected to substantially increase over the cyclone in the
next 24-36 hours as it remains embedded in a fairly dry mid-level
environment. While it is possible a bit more intensification occurs
today, it seems more likely the system will soon succumb to the
increasingly hostile environment over the next several days. Both
the GFS and ECMWF suggest Emily will cease to produce organized
convection in about 48 hours, and the official intensity forecast
shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time. There is
some chance the environment becomes more favorable again in 4-5
days, but a regeneration scenario will not be shown in the official
forecast for now.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.5N 38.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 20.3N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 25.1N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z 29.8N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z 36.0N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201435
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATES TROPICAL STORM EMILY HAS
FORMED...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 38.8W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1615 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 38.8 West. Emily is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds are near
50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
forecast today followed by gradual weakening. Emily is likely to
become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 201434
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 38.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 38.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 38.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.3N 39.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 45.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 49.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.8N 50.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 36.0N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 38.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

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