Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LEE-23
in Canada, United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 171443
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

Environment Canada has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings.
Post-Tropical Lee is moving toward the northeast and will likely
pass over Newfoundland later today. The cyclone should accelerate
east-northeastward and merge with a large extratropical low over
the North Atlantic in a couple of days.

This is the last advisory from the National Hurricane Center on
Lee. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusty conditions will continue over portions of Atlantic Canada
today.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue
to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, and Puerto
Rico through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 48.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 18/0000Z 50.0N 56.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 18/1200Z 52.7N 47.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/0000Z 54.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 171441
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR CANADA ARE DISCONTINUED...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON LEE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.0N 62.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WNW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

Environment Canada has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for
Canada.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
was located near latitude 48.0 North, longitude 62.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35
km/h), and a faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is
expected over the next couple of days, taking Lee over Newfoundland
later today and over the Atlantic waters by early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Lee could dissipate on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Wind gusts to near gale force are still possible over
portions of Atlantic Canada today.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee continue to affect Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 171440
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.0N 62.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 250SE 150SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 720SE 540SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.0N 62.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 63.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 50.0N 56.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.7N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 54.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 150SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 48.0N 62.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 171140
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
800 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.3N 63.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF CHARLOTTETOWN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Lismore eastward to Point Aconi and
southwestward to east of Porters Lake
* Prince Edward Island from Savage Harbor eastward to east of Wood
Islands
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
was located near latitude 47.3 North, longitude 63.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35
km/h), and a faster northeastward motion is expected over the next
couple of days, taking Lee over Newfoundland this afternoon and over
the Atlantic waters by early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (70 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Lee could dissipate on Tuesday. A number of
tropical-storm-force wind gusts have been reported across Nova
Scotia during the past few hours. Beaver Island Nova Scotia
recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust
to 54 mph (87 km/h).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
in Canada is 989 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions continue in portions of the
warning areas today. The strong winds could lead to some downed
trees and power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee continue to affect Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Lee is expected to produce an additional 1 inch (25 mm)
or less across eastern portions of New Brunswick.

STORM SURGE: Areas of coastal flooding should gradually subside
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 170847
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

Satellite imagery, surface observations and Canadian radar imagery
indicates that the center of Lee is near Prince Edward Island,
with most of the rain west of the center near New Brunswick.
Observations from the southern coast of Nova Scotia support lowering
the intensity to 45 kt on this advisory.

Lee has turned northeastward at about 19 kt. The system should
accelerate in this general direction as it interacts with the
stronger mid-latitude flow, but gradually weaken since it has lost
any baroclinic forcing. No significant changes were made to the
previous forecast, except to keep Lee a bit stronger in 36 hours
based on the global model wind forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are occurring
across portions of Atlantic Canada. These winds could lead to
downed trees and power outages.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue
to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, and Puerto
Rico through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 46.5N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 17/1800Z 48.4N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 18/0600Z 51.2N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/1800Z 53.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 170846
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

...LEE NEAR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...
...GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF
ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.5N 63.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF CHARLOTTETOWN PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WSW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Prince Edward Island from Lower Darnley eastward to
west of Savage Harbour, and from Wood Islands westward to Victoria.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Nova Scotia from Brule eastward to west of Lismore, and
from Hubbards eastward to Porters Lake.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Lismore eastward to Point Aconi and
southwestward to east of Porters Lake
* Prince Edward Island from Savage Harbor eastward to east of Wood
Islands
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
was located near latitude 46.5 North, longitude 63.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35
km/h), and a faster northeastward motion is expected over the next
couple of days, taking Lee over Newfoundland this afternoon and
over the Atlantic waters by early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Lee could dissipate on Tuesday. Beaver Island Nova Scotia recently
reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph
(96 km/h).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions continue in portions of the
warning areas today. The strong winds could lead to some downed
trees and power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Lee is expected to produce an additional 1 inch (25 mm)
or less across eastern portions of New Brunswick.

STORM SURGE: Areas of coastal flooding should gradually subside
later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 170845
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.5N 63.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 250SE 150SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 720SE 540SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.5N 63.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.9N 64.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 48.4N 60.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 51.2N 52.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.5N 63.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 170553
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 47A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
200 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2023

...LEE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...
...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF MONCTON NEW BRUNSWICK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings for New Brunswick, including Grand Manan Island.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Prince Edward Island from west of Victoria westward
to Lower Darnley.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Nova Scotia from Tidnish eastward to west of Brule,
the Fundy Coast from Ft. Lawrence east of Margaretsville and from
Lower East Pubnico to west of Hubbards.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia from Brule eastward to Point Aconi then southwestward
to Hubbards
* Prince Edward Island from east of Lower Darnley eastward to
Victoria
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
was located near latitude 45.9 North, longitude 64.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 14
mph (22 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next day or so, taking the system across the Canadian Maritimes.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center. Beaver Island Nova Scotia recently reported a
sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continues in portions of the
warning areas today. The strong winds are leading to some downed
trees and power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Lee is expected to produce an additional 1 inch (25 mm)
or less, across eastern portions of New Brunswick.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding
within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 170242
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

Satellite imagery, surface observations and Canadian radar imagery
indicates that the center of Lee is over the Bay of Fundy, near the
coast of New Brunswick. Rain bands continue to spread across
portions of far eastern Maine and New Brunswick this evening. Drier
air is wrapping into the system and has eroded most of the
convection on the southern and eastern side of the circulation.
Recent observations and a recent partial ASCAT pass support an
intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.

The forward motion of Lee is slower than earlier today, as the
system has stated to make a northeastward turn . This northeastward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected late tonight
and Sunday, as the system moves across the Canadian Maritimes. The
NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast.

Strong wind shear, dry air, and land interaction should cause
steady weakening over the next day or so as Lee spins down. The
global models are in agreement that Lee should dissipate on Monday,
and no real changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are occurring
across portions of Atlantic Canada, and will continue to spread
northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas. The strong winds
are leading to downed trees and power outages.

2. Any additional rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and
small stream flooding in portions of eastern Maine and portions of
New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue
to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, and Puerto
Rico through Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 45.3N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 17/1200Z 47.2N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 18/0000Z 50.1N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/1200Z 52.5N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 170241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...LEE NEAR THE COAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...
...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.3N 65.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF EASTPORT MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coast of
Maine.

Environment Canada has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning in
New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada international border to south of
Fundy National Park, from Belledune to north of Shediac, and north
of Lower East Pubnico to west of Avonport along the Fundy Coast of
Nova Scotia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the Fundy National Park to Fort Lawrence and
from Tidnish to Shediac including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Avonport and then east from
Lower East Pubnico to Tidnish
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
was located near latitude 45.3 North, longitude 65.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 14
mph (22 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next day or so, taking the system across the Canadian Maritimes.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is forecast the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the
coasts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia and will spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning areas overnight. The strong
winds are leading to downed trees and power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Lee is expected to produce an additional 1 inch or less,
or 25 millimeters or less, from portions of eastern Maine into parts
of New Brunswick and far western Nova Scotia. This may produce
localized urban and small stream flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding
within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 170241
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N 65.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......190NE 250SE 120SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 660SE 570SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N 65.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.7N 66.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.2N 63.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 50.1N 57.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.5N 48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.3N 65.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 162346
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 46A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
800 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.7N 66.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM W OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Stonington, Maine.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine northward to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Belledune,
including Grand Manan Island
* All of Nova Scotia
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
was located near latitude 44.7 North, longitude 66.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22
km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next day
or so, taking the system across the Canadian Maritimes.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km)
from the center. An observing site on Beaver Island, Canada,
reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph
(102 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the coasts of
Maine and Nova Scotia and will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning areas through tonight. The strong winds are leading
to downed trees and power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Lee may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, or
25 to 50 millimeters, over portions of eastern Maine and New
Brunswick. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding
within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 162037
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

The core of Lee briefly moved across Long Island in Western Nova
Scotia within the past hour or so. Satellite images and surface
observations indicate that the center is now over the Bay of Fundy.
Rain bands continue to spread across portions of Maine, New
Brunswick, and Nova Scotia as seen in radar images. A pair of ASCAT
passes from several ago showed that Lee remains very large, but the
core winds have decreased below hurricane-force. Considering some
undersampling of that data, the initial intensity was lowered to 60
kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory.

The forward motion of Lee is slower than earlier today as it
moves near the west coast of Nova Scotia. However, the storm is
expected to turn northeastward and accelerate late tonight and
Sunday, bringing the system across the Canadian Maritimes. Little
change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.

Strong wind shear, dry air, and land interaction should cause
steady weakening during the next day or so. The global models are
in agreement that Lee should dissipate on Monday, and that is
reflected in the NHC forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are occurring
across portions of coastal Maine and Atlantic Canada, and will
continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas. The strong winds are leading to downed trees and power
outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee could produce localized urban and small
stream flooding in portions of eastern Maine and New Brunswick.

3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue
to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, and Puerto
Rico through Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 44.5N 66.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 17/0600Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/1800Z 49.0N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/0600Z 51.5N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 162036
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...CORE OF LEE BRUSHING WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...
...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 66.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

Environment Canada has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Cape
Elizabeth, Maine.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Elizabeth northward to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Belledune,
including Grand Manan Island
* All of Nova Scotia
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 66.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26
km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next
day or so, taking the system across the Canadian Maritimes.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km)
from the center. An observing site in Halifax, Canada, reported a
sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).
An observation in Vinal Haven, Maine, reported a sustained wind of
44 mph (71 km/h).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the coasts of
Maine and Nova Scotia and will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning areas through tonight. The strong winds are leading
to downed trees and power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Lee may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, or
25 to 50 millimeters, over portions of eastern Maine and New
Brunswick. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding
within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 162036
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 66.1W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......130NE 150SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......220NE 280SE 200SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 600SE 580SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 66.1W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 66.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 46.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 120SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 49.0N 60.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 51.5N 53.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N 66.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 162010
TCUAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
410 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...LEE MAKES LANDFALL IN FAR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee made landfall on Long Island in Nova
Scotia around 400 PM AST (2000 UTC) with maximum sustained winds
estimated to be 70 mph (110 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM AST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.3N 66.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Hogsett/Cangialosi/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 161757
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...LEE VERY NEAR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...
...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.8N 66.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portsmouth northward to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Belledune,
including Grand Manan Island
* All of Nova Scotia
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
was located near latitude 43.8 North, longitude 66.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 22 mph (35
km/h). A northward motion is expected to continue, and the center of
Lee is forecast to make landfall in Atlantic Canada later this
afternoon. Lee is then expected to turn toward the northeast and
move across Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is expected to be near hurricane strength when it makes
landfall later this afternoon. Weakening is forecast tonight
and Sunday while Lee moves across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km). An observation in Bangor, Maine, recently
reported a wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
areas in Atlantic Canada later today. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring along the coasts of Maine and Nova Scotia and
will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas today
and tonight. The strong winds are leading to downed trees
and power outages. Tropical-storm-force gusts are likely to
continue on Cape Cod for a couple of more hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Through tonight, Lee is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters over far eastern
Massachusetts, eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New
Brunswick. This could produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding
within the wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of
onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 161454
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

The core of Lee is very near the west coast of Nova Scotia. Data
from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure
has been steady at 965 mb, but the surface winds are down a little
to 65 kt. Dropsonde data indicate that winds are notably stronger
just off the surface, so significant wind gusts are likely in areas
of heavy rain and over elevated terrain near the coast. In fact, an
observation on Grand Manan Island in New Brunswick, Canada, recently
recorded a wind gust of 81 kt (150 km/h). Radar data from New
England and Nova Scotia show bands of heavy rain onshore of portions
of coastal New England and Atlantic Canada.

Lee continues to accelerate northward and has jogged to the
left this morning. The core of the cyclone will likely brush the
western portion of Nova Scotia during the next couple of hours and
then move inland near or just east of the U.S./Canada border this
afternoon. After landfall, a faster northeastward motion is
expected as a trough approaches the system, which should take Lee
across portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday.

Little change in strength is expected before landfall, and the core
winds are likely to come ashore in far down east Maine and western
portions of New Brunswick. Steady weakening is expected after Lee
moves inland, and the system is expected to dissipate by late
Monday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of southern New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia later today within the Hurricane Watch
areas. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are
occurring across portions of coastal Maine and Atlantic
Canada, and will continue to spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning areas. The strong winds are already leading to downed
trees and power outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding in portions of far eastern Massachusetts, eastern
Maine, New Brunswick and western Nova Scotia today.

3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue
to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 43.5N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 17/0000Z 45.7N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/1200Z 48.3N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/0000Z 50.8N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1200Z 53.0N 50.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 161453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...LEE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...
...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.5N 66.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

Environment Canada has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Prince Edward Island, Magdalen Islands,
and portions of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Westport, RI
to Portsmouth, NH, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portsmouth northward to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Belledune,
including Grand Manan Island
* All of Nova Scotia
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
was located near latitude 43.5 North, longitude 66.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 22 mph (35
km/h). A northward motion is expected to continue, and the
center of Lee is forecast to make landfall near or just east of
the U.S./Canada border this afternoon. Lee is then expected to
turn toward the northeast and move across Atlantic Canada tonight
and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is expected to be at or just below hurricane strength
when it makes landfall later today. Weakening is forecast
tonight and Sunday while Lee moves across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km). A sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a
gust to 93 mph (150 km/h) was recently reported on Grand Manan
Island in New Brunswick, Canada. An observation in Eastport,
Maine, recently reported 39 mph (63 km/h) sustained winds with a
gust to 50 mph (81 km/h). An observation in Lunenburg in Nova
Scotia reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (81 km/h) and a wind
gust of 66 mph (106 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
areas in Atlantic Canada later today. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring along the coasts of Maine and Nova Scotia and
will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas today
and tonight. The strong winds are leading to downed trees
and power outages. Tropical-storm-force gusts are likely to
continue on Cape Cod for a couple of more hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Through tonight, Lee is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters over far eastern
Massachusetts, eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New
Brunswick. This could produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the New England
Coast and will begin to subside after the next high tide cycle. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 161453
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 66.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 120SE 110SW 0NW.
50 KT.......140NE 140SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT.......310NE 340SE 200SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 540SE 620SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 66.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 66.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.7N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 120SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 48.3N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 50.8N 57.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 53.0N 50.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 65SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.5N 66.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 161152
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
800 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...LEE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...
...STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HEAVY RAINS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 66.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...355 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE
ABOUT 185 MI...365 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* New Brunswick from Shediac to Tidnish
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* New Brunswick from Belledune to Shediac
* Nova Scotia from Tidnish to Aulds Cove
* Nova Scotia from Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through
Sunday.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case through Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
was located near latitude 42.7 North, longitude 66.2 West. Lee is
moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h). A northward motion
but at a slower forward speed is expected later today, and the
center of Lee is forecast to reach western Nova Scotia around
midday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast and
northeast and move across Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is expected to be at or just below hurricane strength
when it reaches Nova Scotia later today. Weakening is forecast
tonight and Sunday while Lee moves across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km). A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to
55 mph (89 km/h) in Nantucket, Massachusetts. A wind gust of 77
mph (124 km/h) was recently reported in Grand Manan Island in New
Brunswick, Canada.

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 965 mb (28.50
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
areas in Atlantic Canada later today. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring along the coasts of New England and Nova Scotia and
will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas today
and tonight. The strong winds are likely to lead to downed trees
and potential power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Through tonight, Lee is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 1 to 4 inches (25 to 100 millimeters) over far eastern
Massachusetts, eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New
Brunswick. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to the U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 160850
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

Lee appears to have completed its transition to a post-tropical
cyclone. The cloud pattern is comma shaped, and there has been no
significant central deep convection for the past 12 hours or so.
The cyclone is now frontal but likely still has a warm core,
indicating that it is a warm seclusion-type of extratropical
cyclone. Despite this transition, it remains a potent cyclone, and
the initial intensity remains 70 kt since the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters measured SFMR winds as high as 66 kt about 110 n
mi southwest of the center.

Lee accelerated more than expected during the past 6-12 hours, and
the current motion is estimated to be northward (355 degrees) at 22
kt. The aircraft fixes and recent satellite imagery indicate that
the center has bent back to the west by just a bit, which was
expected, likely due to interaction with a mid-level trough which
moved off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. A general northward motion,
but at a slower forward speed, is expected today, and Lee's center
is now forecast to reach western Nova Scotia around midday. The
cyclone is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast and
then northeast, moving across Atlantic Canada and the Gulf of St.
Lawrence tonight through Sunday. Due to the recent acceleration,
the new NHC track forecast is faster than, but still otherwise on
top of, the previous prediction.

Lee's center has moved north of the Gulf Stream, and water
temperatures along the cyclone's path are down to 20 degrees
Celsius and decreasing. Intensity models indicate that Lee should
begin gradually weakening very soon, although the maximum winds are
likely to still be at or just below hurricane strength (mainly
over water) when Lee's center reaches Nova Scotia later today. The
NHC intensity forecast closely follows the GFS and ECMWF solutions,
and Lee is expected to continue producing gale-force winds while it
moves across Atlantic Canada tonight through Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions southern New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia later today within the Hurricane Watch
areas. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are
occurring across portions of coastal New England and Atlantic
Canada, and will continue to spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning areas. The strong winds are likely to lead to downed
trees and potential power outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding in portions of far eastern Massachusetts, eastern
Maine, New Brunswick, and western Nova Scotia today.

3. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will continue
to affect the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 41.8N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 16/1800Z 44.1N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/0600Z 46.8N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1800Z 49.5N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0600Z 52.3N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 160848
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...LEE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL AS IT APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA, BUT IT
IS STILL PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...
...NHC ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.8N 66.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* New Brunswick from Shediac to Tidnish
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* New Brunswick from Belledune to Shediac
* Nova Scotia from Tidnish to Aulds Cove
* Nova Scotia from Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case today through
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
was located near latitude 41.8 North, longitude 66.0 West. Lee is
moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h). A northward motion
but at a slower forward speed is expected later today, and the
center of Lee is forecast to reach western Nova Scotia around
midday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast and
northeast and move across Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with
higher gusts. Lee is expected to be at or just below hurricane
strength when it reaches Nova Scotia later today. Weakening is
forecast tonight and Sunday while Lee moves across Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km). A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to
56 mph (91 km/h) was recently reported at Brier Island, Nova
Scotia. A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph
(94 km/h) were recently measured at Dennis, Massachusetts.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 965 mb
(28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
areas in Atlantic Canada later today. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring along the coasts of New England and Nova Scotia and
will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning areas today
and tonight. The strong winds are likely to lead to downed trees
and potential power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Through tonight, Lee is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 1 to 4 inches (25 to 100 millimeters) over far eastern
Massachusetts, eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New
Brunswick. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to the U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 160848
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 66.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 120SE 110SW 0NW.
50 KT.......180NE 180SE 160SW 180NW.
34 KT.......310NE 340SE 250SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 560SE 630SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 66.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 44.1N 65.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 46.8N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 49.5N 60.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 52.3N 53.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.8N 66.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 160552
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
200 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
MASSACHUSETTS, NOVA SCOTIA, AND APPROACHING THE COAST OF MAINE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 65.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* New Brunswick from Shediac to Tidnish
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* New Brunswick from Belledune to Shediac
* Nova Scotia from Tidnish to Aulds Cove
* Nova Scotia from Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning, in this case within the next
12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
40.8 North, longitude 65.9 West. Lee is moving toward the north
near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through today. On the forecast track, the center of Lee
will continue to approach the coast of Nova Scotia this morning.
Lee is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast and
northeast and move across Atlantic Canada tonight and Sunday.

Lee is a very large and dangerous storm. Maximum sustained winds
remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual
weakening is forecast, with Lee expected to become fully
extratropical very soon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). A station at Wellfleet, Massachusetts, reported a
sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h)
during the past few hours. A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h)
was reported at Bacarro Point, Nova Scotia.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 965 mb
(28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
areas in Atlantic Canada later today. Tropical storm conditions
are occurring along the coast of Massachusetts and will spread
northward across the rest of New England within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along
the coast of Nova Scotia and will spread across the Tropical Storm
Warning area in Atlantic Canada through the day. These conditions
are likely to lead to downed trees and potential power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Through tonight, Lee is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 millimeters) over portions of
eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This may
produce localized urban and small stream flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

East of Montauk Point, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft
Long Island Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 160413

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 16.09.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 136.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2023 0 14.7N 136.4W 1007 29
1200UTC 16.09.2023 12 14.4N 138.0W 1007 26
0000UTC 17.09.2023 24 14.1N 140.0W 1008 26
1200UTC 17.09.2023 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 35.6N 37.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2023 0 35.6N 37.9W 991 42
1200UTC 16.09.2023 12 34.7N 38.6W 996 38
0000UTC 17.09.2023 24 33.9N 40.3W 1001 37
1200UTC 17.09.2023 36 33.8N 42.0W 1005 31
0000UTC 18.09.2023 48 34.5N 42.9W 1009 28
1200UTC 18.09.2023 60 35.9N 43.6W 1011 27
0000UTC 19.09.2023 72 37.2N 42.5W 1013 24
1200UTC 19.09.2023 84 37.5N 40.3W 1014 25
0000UTC 20.09.2023 96 37.5N 38.4W 1015 26
1200UTC 20.09.2023 108 36.8N 37.7W 1016 27
0000UTC 21.09.2023 120 37.3N 36.6W 1016 21
1200UTC 21.09.2023 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2023 0 16.6N 44.1W 1010 25
1200UTC 16.09.2023 12 17.8N 45.5W 1010 24
0000UTC 17.09.2023 24 20.3N 46.5W 1010 26
1200UTC 17.09.2023 36 22.3N 48.9W 1009 26
0000UTC 18.09.2023 48 23.6N 49.9W 1008 25
1200UTC 18.09.2023 60 25.0N 50.9W 1006 30
0000UTC 19.09.2023 72 26.6N 52.8W 1005 35
1200UTC 19.09.2023 84 28.0N 55.0W 1003 34
0000UTC 20.09.2023 96 29.5N 56.5W 1002 40
1200UTC 20.09.2023 108 31.9N 57.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 21.09.2023 120 34.5N 56.9W 998 40
1200UTC 21.09.2023 132 36.6N 54.6W 995 48
0000UTC 22.09.2023 144 37.7N 50.2W 993 48
1200UTC 22.09.2023 156 38.6N 44.3W 986 63
0000UTC 23.09.2023 168 38.3N 37.9W 986 59

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 38.5N 65.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2023 0 38.5N 65.8W 965 70
1200UTC 16.09.2023 12 42.3N 66.3W 965 50
0000UTC 17.09.2023 24 44.9N 65.8W 981 42
1200UTC 17.09.2023 36 47.2N 62.8W 989 36
0000UTC 18.09.2023 48 49.2N 57.2W 994 33
1200UTC 18.09.2023 60 53.1N 46.8W 993 37
0000UTC 19.09.2023 72 54.1N 32.3W 986 34
1200UTC 19.09.2023 84 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.5N 78.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2023 156 32.4N 78.4W 1009 34
0000UTC 23.09.2023 168 34.2N 77.6W 1010 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.7N 3.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2023 168 36.7N 3.4W 1013 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160412

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 160413

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.09.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 136.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2023 14.7N 136.4W WEAK
12UTC 16.09.2023 14.4N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2023 14.1N 140.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 35.6N 37.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2023 35.6N 37.9W MODERATE
12UTC 16.09.2023 34.7N 38.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2023 33.9N 40.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2023 33.8N 42.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2023 34.5N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2023 35.9N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2023 37.2N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2023 37.5N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2023 37.5N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2023 36.8N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2023 37.3N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2023 16.6N 44.1W WEAK
12UTC 16.09.2023 17.8N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2023 20.3N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2023 22.3N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2023 23.6N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2023 25.0N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2023 26.6N 52.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2023 28.0N 55.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2023 29.5N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2023 31.9N 57.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2023 34.5N 56.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2023 36.6N 54.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2023 37.7N 50.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2023 38.6N 44.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2023 38.3N 37.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 38.5N 65.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2023 38.5N 65.8W STRONG
12UTC 16.09.2023 42.3N 66.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2023 44.9N 65.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2023 47.2N 62.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2023 49.2N 57.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2023 53.1N 46.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2023 54.1N 32.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2023 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.5N 78.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2023 32.4N 78.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2023 34.2N 77.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.7N 3.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2023 36.7N 3.4W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160412

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 160249
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

Lee remains a very large and dangerous hurricane as it approaches
the northeast United States and Atlantic Canada. The satellite
depiction of Lee shows that the system continues to become more
asymmetric, with most of the convection displaced to the north of
the center. An earlier SSMI/S microwave pass shows thick banding on
the northern and western side of the inner core, which is where the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters found the strongest flight-level and
surface winds. The initial intensity, based on aircraft
reconnaissance data, will remain at 70 kt for this advisory. Air
Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Lee again overnight.

Lee continues to wobble as it approaches the northeastern United
States and Atlantic Canada. The past few hours there has been a bit
of a north-northeast jog. Whether this is more of a wobble or a
longer-term motion is still to be determined. Global model guidance
has been hinting that this type of motion would occur as it makes
its approach towards Atlantic Canada, with a slight bend back to the
north-northwest over the next 12-18 h. The track forecast was nudged
to the right given the current motion, but it does show a
north-northwestward motion in the short term. These slight
adjustments on the final approach are minor given the very large
wind field of Lee. Once Lee makes landfall, the system is expected
to accelerate to the northeast as it moves in the flow on the east
side of an approaching trough.

Strong southerly vertical wind shear has displaced the convection to
the northern side of the system. Dry air entrainment is also
inhibiting convection on the southern and eastern side of the
circulation. These hostile environmental conditions will persist as
Lee moves over much cooler waters after it crosses the north wall of
the Gulf Stream on Saturday. Lee is already showing signs of
completing its extratropical transition, with displaced convection
and an elongated center on a recent scatterometer pass, and thus
this transition is now explicitly forecast to occur within the next
12 h. Gradual weakening is forecast throughout the period, the NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous, closest to the GFS.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions southern New
Brunswick, and much of Nova Scotia on Saturday within the Hurricane
Watch area. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are
expected to begin in southern New England within the Tropical Storm
Warning area very soon, and spread northward along the coast of
New England and over portions of Atlantic Canada through Saturday.
These conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and potential
power outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding in portions of eastern Maine, New Brunswick and
western Nova Scotia Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 39.5N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 41.7N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/0000Z 44.5N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1200Z 47.3N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z 50.6N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/1200Z 53.0N 50.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0000Z 54.3N 41.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 160248
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IMMINENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 65.8W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* New Brunswick from Shediac to Tidnish
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* New Brunswick from Belledune to Shediac
* Nova Scotia from Tidnish to Aulds Cove
* Nova Scotia from Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 65.8 West. Lee has been moving
toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) over the past few
hours. A north to north-northwest motion is forecast to resume
later tonight, and this motion at a faster forward speed is expected
through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
continue to approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada
through Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada
Saturday night and Sunday.

Lee is a very large and dangerous storm. Maximum sustained winds,
based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, are near 80 mph
(130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast,
with Lee expected to become extra-tropical on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). NOAA Buoy 44011 located about 205 miles (180 km)
north of the center has recently reported a peak one-minute
sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/hr) and a gust of 67 mph (107
km/hr).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches)
based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas
in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in southern New England very soon and then spread
northward across the rest of New England within the Tropical Storm
Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. These conditions are likely
to lead to downed trees and potential power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Late tonight into Saturday night, Lee is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, or 50 to 125 millimeters
over portions of eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New
Brunswick. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

East of Montauk Point, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft
Long Island Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 160248
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 65.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
50 KT.......160NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT.......270NE 270SE 240SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 540SE 600SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 65.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 66.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
50 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 225SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 44.5N 65.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 220SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.3N 63.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 50.6N 58.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 53.0N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 54.3N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 152355
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
800 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 66.0W
ABOUT 470 MI...750 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* New Brunswick from Shediac to Tidnish
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* New Brunswick from Belledune to Shediac
* Nova Scotia from Tidnish to Aulds Cove
* Nova Scotia from Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 66.0 West. Lee has been moving
north-northeastward near 20 mph (31 km/h) the past few hours. A
north to north-northwest motion is forecasted to resume later
tonight, and this motion at a faster forward speed is expected
through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
continue to approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada
through Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada
Saturday night and Sunday.

Lee is a very large and dangerous storm. Maximum sustained winds are
near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).
NOAA Buoy 44011 located about 210 miles (335 km) north of the center
has recently reported a peak one-minute sustained wind of 47 mph (76
km/hr) and a gust of 67 mph (107 km/hr).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas
in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in southern New England within the next few
hours and then spread northward across the rest of New England
within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread across the Tropical Storm
Warning area in Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. These
conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and potential power
outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Late tonight into Saturday night, Lee is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, or 50 to 125 millimeters
over portions of eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New
Brunswick. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

East of Montauk Point, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft
Long Island Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 152049
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

Lee remains a very large hurricane over the western Atlantic. ASCAT
data from this morning showed the wind field expanding, with the
hurricane-force winds around 100 miles and tropical-storm-force
winds more than 300 miles outward from the center. New data from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the core winds remain
steady with an intensity of 70 kt. Lee continues to be an
asymmetric hurricane with most of the convection on the north side
of the system.

The hurricane continues to wobble around, but it is generally moving
northward at 17 kt during the last 12-18 hours on the western side
of a subtropical ridge. Lee will continue to move northward around
the same speed until it makes landfall in Atlantic Canada in
approximately 24 to 30 hours. Once Lee makes landfall, it is still
expected to accelerate to the northeast as it moves in the flow on
the east side of an approaching trough. The models remain in quite
good agreement, and the NHC track forecast was only slightly
shifted to the left to follow the new guidance through landfall.
Otherwise, no significant changes were made.

Southerly vertical wind shear and dry air continue eroding deep
convection on Lee's south side. These environmental conditions will
persist while Lee moves over sharply cooler waters when it crosses
the north wall of the Gulf Stream during the next day or so.
Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast and Lee will likely become
a strong extratropical cyclone around the time it makes landfall.
The NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one
and continues to be fairly close to the GFS model. However, Lee is
expected to remain a very large and dangerous system over the next
couple of days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions southern New
Brunswick, and much of Nova Scotia on Saturday within the Hurricane
Watch area. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are
expected to begin in southern New England within the Tropical Storm
Warning area this evening, and spread northward along the coast of
New England and over portions of Atlantic Canada through Saturday.
These conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and potential
power outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee could produce localized urban and small
stream flooding in portions of eastern Maine, New Brunswick and
western Nova Scotia Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 37.9N 66.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 40.5N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 43.5N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z 49.0N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/0600Z 51.7N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1800Z 53.9N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster A Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 152048
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 66.7W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

Environment Canada has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
southeastern New Brunswick. Environment Canada has also issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for much of the coast of New Brunswick, all of
Prince Edward Island, and the northern coast of Nova Scotia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* New Brunswick from Shediac to Tidnish
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* New Brunswick from Belledune to Shediac
* Nova Scotia from Tidnish to Aulds Cove
* Nova Scotia from Aulds Cove to Meat Cove to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 66.7 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion at a faster forward
speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Lee will continue to move farther away from Bermuda and
approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada through
Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the north-northeast
and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is expected to be a very large and dangerous storm when
it reaches eastern New England and Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas
in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in southern New England late this afternoon and
spread northward across the rest of New England within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. These conditions are likely
to lead to downed trees and potential power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Late tonight into Saturday night, Lee is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, or 50 to 125 millimeters
over portions of eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and New
Brunswick. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

East of Montauk Point, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft
Long Island Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster A Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 152048
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 66.7W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
50 KT.......160NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT.......270NE 270SE 240SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..440NE 480SE 580SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 66.7W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 66.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.
34 KT...280NE 280SE 220SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.5N 66.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 250SE 220SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 49.0N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 51.7N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.9N 47.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 66.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 151755
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
200 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF LEE APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 340 MI...635 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The goverment of Bermuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. Lee is moving toward
the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a northward motion at
a faster forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to move farther away
from Bermuda and approach the coast of New England and Atlantic
Canada through Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada
Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is expected to be a large and dangerous storm when it
reaches eastern New England and Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas
in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in southern New England late this afternoon and
spread northward across the rest of New England within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. These conditions are likely
to lead to downed trees and potential power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Tonight through Saturday night, Lee is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, 50 to 100 millimeters,
in eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and portions of New
Brunswick. This could produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 151446
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...LEE REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 66.9W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for Down East Maine has been discontinued.

Environment Canada has extended the Hurricane Watch eastward to
Ecum Secum.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Ecum Secum

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 66.9 West. Lee is moving toward
the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a northward motion at
a faster forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lee will continue to move farther away
from Bermuda and approach the coast of New England and Atlantic
Canada through Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada
Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is expected to be a large and dangerous storm
when it reaches eastern New England and Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches) based on data
from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircrafts.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda during
the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in
Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in southern New England late this afternoon and
spread northward across the rest of New England within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. These conditions are likely
to lead to downed trees and potential power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Tonight through Saturday night, Lee is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, 50 to 100 millimeters,
in eastern Maine, western Nova Scotia, and portions of New
Brunswick. This could produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/A Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 151446
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

Lee remains a very large hurricane over the western Atlantic. The
strongest winds extend out to roughly 70 miles from the center,
hurricane-force winds around 100 miles and tropical-storm-force
winds more than 300 miles. Data from both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the core winds have decreased
slightly, and a blend of the latest flight-level and SFMR winds
support an intensity of 70 kt. Satellite images indicate that the
hurricane is asymmetric with most of the convection on the north
side.

The hurricane has been wobbling around, but it has generally been
moving north-northeastward at 16 kt during the past 12-18 hours on
the western side of a subtropical ridge. A northward to
north-northeastward motion at about the same forward speed is
expected until Lee makes landfall in Atlantic Canada in 24 to 36
hours. After landfall, Lee is forecast to accelerate to the
northeast when it moves in the flow on the east side of an
approaching trough. The models are tightly clustered, and no
significant changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

Southerly vertical wind shear and dry air are eroding deep
convection on the hurricane's south side. These environmental
conditions are expected to persist while Lee moves over sharply
cooler waters during the next day or so. Therefore, steady
weakening is forecast and Lee will likely become extratropical
around the time it makes landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is a
little lower than the previous one, and fairly close to the GFS
model prediction. Lee is expected to remain a large and dangerous
system over the next couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions southern New
Brunswick, and much of Nova Scotia on Saturday within the Hurricane
Watch area. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are
expected to begin in southern New England within the Tropical Storm
Warning area this afternoon, and spread northward along the coast of
New England and over portions of Atlantic Canada through Saturday.
These conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and potential
power outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee could produce localized urban and small
stream flooding in eastern Maine into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia from tonight into Saturday night.

3. Tropical storm conditions and high surf will continue to impact
Bermuda during the next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 36.0N 66.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 38.5N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 41.8N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 45.1N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1200Z 47.8N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/0000Z 50.8N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z 53.4N 51.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/A Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 151444
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

Lee remains a very large hurricane over the western Atlantic. The
strongest winds extend out to roughly 70 miles from the center,
hurricane-force winds around 100 miles and tropical-storm-force
winds more than 300 miles. Data from both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the core winds have decreased
slightly, and a blend of the latest flight-level and SFMR winds
support an intensity of 70 kt. Satellite images indicate that the
hurricane is asymmetric with most of the convection on the north
side.

The hurricane has been wobbling around, but it has generally been
moving north-northeastward at 16 kt during the past 12-18 hours on
the western side of a subtropical ridge. A northward to
north-northeastward motion at about the same forward speed is
expected until Lee makes landfall in Atlantic Canada in 24 to 36
hours. After landfall, Lee is forecast to accelerate to the
northeast when it moves in the flow on the east side of an
approaching trough. The models are tightly clustered, and no
significant changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

Southerly vertical wind shear and dry air are eroding deep
convection on the hurricane's south side. These environmental
conditions are expected to persist while Lee moves over sharply
cooler waters during the next day or so. Therefore, steady
weakening is forecast and Lee will likely become extratropical
around the time it makes landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is a
little lower than the previous one, and fairly close to the GFS
model prediction. Lee is expected to remain a large and dangerous
system over the next couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions southern New
Brunswick, and much of Nova Scotia on Saturday within the Hurricane
Watch area. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are
expected to begin in southern New England within the Tropical Storm
Warning area this afternoon, and spread northward along the coast of
New England and over portions of Atlantic Canada through Saturday.
These conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and potential
power outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee could produce localized urban and small
stream flooding in eastern Maine into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia from tonight into Saturday night.

3. Tropical storm conditions and high surf will continue to impact
Bermuda during the next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 36.0N 66.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 38.5N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 41.8N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 45.1N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1200Z 47.8N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/0000Z 50.8N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z 53.4N 51.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 151443
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 66.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT.......160NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.
34 KT.......280NE 280SE 200SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..440NE 480SE 500SW 410NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 66.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 67.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.5N 66.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.
34 KT...280NE 280SE 220SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.8N 66.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 220SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.1N 65.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 215SE 135SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.8N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 200SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 50.8N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 53.4N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 66.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 15/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 151144
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
800 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...LEE REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 67.0W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Petit Manan Point, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a northward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Lee will continue to move farther away from Bermuda
this morning and approach the coast of New England and Atlantic
Canada today and Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada
Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Lee
is forecast to become post-tropical and begin weakening by Saturday,
but it is still expected to be a large and dangerous storm when it
reaches eastern New England and Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
the morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in
Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in southern New England late this
afternoon and spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning
area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in Atlantic Canada
tonight and Saturday. These conditions are likely to lead to
downed trees and potential power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From tonight through Saturday night, Lee is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters,
across portions of eastern New England into portions of New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and
small stream flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 150854
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

Lee appears to be in the very initial stages of extratropical
transition. The cloud pattern is becoming increasingly asymmetric,
and scatterometer data from last evening showed a band of strong
winds developing along a boundary to the northwest of the center.
Lee's initial intensity remains 75 kt based on continuity from last
evening's reconnaissance and scatterometer data, but NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the storm in a
couple of hours to again sample the wind field.

Lee has been wobbling a bit since yesterday afternoon, but the
smoothed motion is northward (010 degrees) at a faster speed of 14
kt. Additional northward acceleration is expected during the next
24-36 hours as Lee moves along the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge, and approaches a trough currently over New England. The
track model guidance continues to be in very good agreement on
bringing Lee's center very near the western end of Nova Scotia by
Saturday afternoon, although the new NHC forecast is a little
faster than the previous prediction. In 2-3 days, Lee is forecast
to turn north-northeastward and northeastward across Atlantic
Canada as it moves between the aforementioned ridge and a mid-level
trough moving across Quebec.

Although southerly shear is forecast to increase markedly through
the day, baroclinic influences during Lee's extratropical transition
are likely to keep the intensity relatively steady for the next 24
hours or so. During that time, the NHC intensity forecast is near
the top end of the guidance suite, closest to the GFS and ECMWF
solutions, and there is some possibility that a band of strong winds
could develop near the front on the western side of the circulation
over the Gulf of Maine. Extratropical transition is forecast to be
complete by 36 hours (although it could be sooner), and Lee is
likely to be weakening--but still near or just below hurricane
force--as it is approaching Nova Scotia due to the continued shear
and much colder ocean temperatures. Lee is expected to continue
weakening while it moves across Atlantic Canada, and global model
fields indicate that it is likely to be absorbed by another
developing area of low pressure near Newfoundland and Labrador just
after 72 hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of Down East
Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova Scotia on Saturday
within the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions and
coastal flooding are expected to begin in southern New England
within the Tropical Storm Warning area this afternoon, and spread
northward along the coast of New England and over portions of
Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These conditions are likely to
lead to downed trees and potential power outages.

2. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding across eastern New England and into portions of New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia from tonight into Saturday night.

3. Tropical storm conditions and high surf will continue to impact
Bermuda through this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 34.4N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 36.8N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 40.3N 66.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 43.4N 66.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0600Z 46.3N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 17/1800Z 49.3N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z 52.2N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 150853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...LEE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 67.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM NW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the coast of Maine
west of Petit Manan Point.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Petit Manan Point, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 67.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a northward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Lee will continue to move farther away from Bermuda
this morning and approach the coast of New England and Atlantic
Canada today and Saturday. Lee is then expected to turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast and move across Atlantic Canada
Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
Lee is forecast to become post-tropical and begin weakening by
Saturday, but it is still expected to be a large and dangerous
storm when it reaches eastern New England and Atlantic Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320
miles (520 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
the morning.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in
Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in southern New England late this
afternoon and spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning
area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in Atlantic Canada
tonight and Saturday. These conditions are likely to lead to
downed trees and potential power outages.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From tonight through Saturday night, Lee is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters,
across portions of eastern New England into portions of New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and
small stream flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 150852
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 67.5W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT.......160NE 170SE 110SW 150NW.
34 KT.......280NE 280SE 200SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 420SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 67.5W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 67.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.8N 67.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.
34 KT...280NE 280SE 220SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 220SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.4N 66.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 180SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 46.3N 64.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 49.3N 61.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 52.2N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...160NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 67.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 150548
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
200 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG MUCH OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 67.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 67.6 West. Lee is moving
toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A
turn toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast
Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee
will continue to move farther away from Bermuda this morning,
approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada today and
Saturday, and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this
afternoon. Some gradual weakening is forecast tonight and Saturday,
but Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the next
couple of days.

Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).
Tropical storm conditions continue on Bermuda, where a sustained
wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was
recently reported at the L.F. Wade International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern New
England this afternoon and spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda through this
morning.

From tonight through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 150250
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Lee's eyewall is not well defined, and this
is also suggested by geostationary satellite and microwave imagery.
Although the peak 700 mb flight-level winds reported by the plane
were near 93 kt, the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 72 kt.
Thus the winds aloft in the hurricane are not being transported
very effectively to the surface. This is not surprising, since the
central deep convection is no longer very strong. The current
intensity is kept at 75 kt based on the aircraft data, which is
well above the Dvorak satellite estimates.

Lee wobbled a bit to the northeast early this evening, but the
longer-term motion appears to be just east of north, or around
010/12 kt. The system should move generally northward at a faster
forward speed, on the west side of a mid-level ridge, during the
next day or so. A slight bend to the left is likely late Friday as
the cyclone interacts with a mid-level trough. By late Saturday,
Lee should begin to turn toward the north-northeast with the center
passing near or over western Nova Scotia. Then, Lee is forecast to
turn northeastward over Atlantic Canada. The track guidance remains
in good agreement through 72 hours, and the official forecast is
basically an update of the previous one.

South-southwesterly shear is predicted to increase significantly
over Lee during the next couple of days. This, along with cooler
SSTs, particularly after the system moves north of 40N latitude,
should result in weakening. However, baroclinic processes could
help the cyclone maintain its intensity, or at least slow the
weakening rate. The official intensity forecast is above the model
guidance for this reason. In 48 hours, simulated satellite imagery
shows an asymmetric cloud structure characteristic of an
extratropical cyclone. Regardless of when extratropical transition
actually occurs, however, Lee should remain a very large and
dangerous cyclone through landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf will
continue to impact Bermuda through Friday morning, and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova
Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for that
area. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are expected
to begin in southern New England on Friday afternoon, and spread
northward along the coast of New England and over portions of
Atlantic Canada through Saturday where Tropical Storm warnings are
in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding across eastern New England and into portions of New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia from Friday night into Saturday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 32.9N 67.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 35.0N 67.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 38.4N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 41.6N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 44.3N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 17/1200Z 47.0N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0000Z 49.6N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z 54.5N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 150249
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 67.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the
coast of Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Fort Lawrence,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Fort Lawrence to Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 67.6 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn
toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
continue to pass west-northwest of Bermuda through tonight,
approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and
Saturday, and move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Friday
afternoon. Some gradual weakening is forecast Friday night and
Saturday, but Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the
next couple of days.

Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).
A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85
km/h) was recently reported at the L.F. Wade International Airport
on Bermuda.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern New
England on Friday afternoon and spread northward within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Atlantic Canada by late Friday into Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will produce coastal flooding within the
wind warning areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda overnight
and early Friday.

From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 150244
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 67.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT.......170NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT.......300NE 300SE 200SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 450SE 420SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 67.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 67.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.0N 67.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
50 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 200SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.4N 66.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.6N 66.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 44.3N 66.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.0N 63.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 49.6N 59.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 54.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 67.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 142354
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
800 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

...LEE CAUSING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 68.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to
Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. Tropical Storm Warnings
will likely be required for portions of Atlantic Canada tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 68.0 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn
toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
continue to pass west of Bermuda through this evening, approach the
coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and
move across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Friday
afternoon. Some gradual weakening is forecast Friday night and
Saturday, but Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the
next couple of days.

Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).
A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently reported at the
L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the southern New
England on Friday afternoon and spread northward within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Atlantic Canada by late Friday into Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda tonight into
early Friday.

Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 142052
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

There has been little overall change to the satellite presentation
of Lee since the previous advisory. Deep convection continues to
develop near the center, but it is primarily confined to the
northern portion of the circulation. Southwesterly shear and dry
air entrainment is disrupting the convective banding over the
southern portion of the storm. The initial intensity was lowered
to 75 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory, and was based
on data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that was
in the storm through midday. The initial wind speed remains at
that value for this advisory. The next reconnaissance mission is
scheduled to investigate Lee this evening. The early aircraft data
along with a couple of fortuitous ASCAT overpasses showed that the
wind field of Lee has continued to expand. The 50-kt wind radii
extend outward up to 170 n mi over the eastern semicircle of the
storm. NOAA buoy 41048 located about 75 miles (120 km) west of the
center of Lee has recently reported a peak one-minute sustained wind
of 58 kt and a gust to 76 kt and wave heights of around 30 ft.
Bermuda, located more than 220 miles east-northeast of the center
has also reported sustained tropical-storm force winds today.

Lee is moving northward at about 13 kt, which is slightly faster
than before. Lee should continue to pick up some forward speed as
it moves northward around the western side of a mid-level ridge
over the central Atlantic during the next 12-24 hours. After that
time a slight bend to the north-northwest is likely late Friday or
early Saturday, and this motion should bring the center of Lee near
or over southwestern Nova Scotia late Saturday. After that time,
Lee is forecast to turn northeastward over Atlantic Canada. The
track guidance is still in good agreement, and no significant
changes to the previous official forecast were required.

Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment
could cause some additional weakening, but baroclinic forcing
during the early stages of Lee's extratropical transition may help
to maintain the cyclone's intensity through Friday. By Friday
night Lee will be moving over significantly cooler sea surface
temperatures, and gradual weakening is expected after that time.
Lee is forecast to complete its transition into an extratropical
cyclone when it nears Atlantic Canada. Regardless of Lee's
designation when it approaches New England and Atlantic Canada, it
will remain a very large and dangerous cyclone through landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf will
continue to impact Bermuda through Friday morning, and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova
Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for that
area. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are expected
to begin in southern New England on Friday afternoon, and spread
northward along the coast of New England through Saturday where
Tropical Storm warnings are in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding across eastern New England and into portions of New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia from Friday night into Saturday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 31.7N 68.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 33.8N 67.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 37.0N 66.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 40.3N 66.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 43.3N 66.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 17/0600Z 46.0N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1800Z 48.6N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1800Z 53.7N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 142047
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 68.3W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of New England has been
extended northward to the U.S./Canada border. The Tropical Storm
Warning along the coast of Massachusetts has been extended westward
to Westport. The Tropical Storm Watch west of Westport,
Massachusetts has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket has been
discontinued. See Coastal Flood Products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional details.

The Canadian Hurricane Center has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
along the coast of eastern Nova Scotia to Point Tupper.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Westport Massachusetts northward to the U.S./Canada border
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to
Point Tupper

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 68.3 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn
toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
pass west of Bermuda through this evening, approach the coast
of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move
across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Friday
afternoon. Some gradual weakening is forecast Friday night and
Saturday, but Lee is expected to remain large and dangerous for the
next couple of days.

Lee is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). A sustained wind of
40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently
reported at the L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda. NOAA
buoy 41048 located about 75 miles (120 km) west of the center of
Lee has recently reported a peak one-minute sustained wind of
67 mph (108 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (141 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the southern New
England on Friday afternoon and spread northward within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Atlantic Canada by late Friday into Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to U.S./Canada border...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Cape Cod...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda tonight into
early Friday.

Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 142046
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 68.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT.......170NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT.......300NE 300SE 200SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..435NE 450SE 420SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 68.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.8N 67.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
50 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 200SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.0N 66.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.3N 66.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.3N 66.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 180SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 46.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 48.6N 61.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 53.7N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 68.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 141745 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 37A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
200 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

Corrected wind speed conversion in the discussion section

...LEE'S LARGE WIND FIELD MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 68.4W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Massachusetts coast from Woods Hole to Hull
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts
* Block Island
* North of Hull Massachusetts to Stonington Maine
* New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to
Porter's Lake

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Cod Bay
* Nantucket

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 68.4 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn
toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
pass west of Bermuda through this evening, approach the coast
of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move
across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, but Lee is
expected to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the next
couple of days.

Lee is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A sustained wind of 39 mph
(63 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (81 km/h) has recently been reported
at the L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda. NOAA buoy 41048
located about 90 miles (145 km) northwest of the center of Lee
has recently reported a peak one-minute sustained wind of 54 mph
(86 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Cape Cod,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket on Friday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area elsewhere
in coastal New England and Atlantic Canada late Friday into
Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft
Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
Nantucket...2-4 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft
Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda today into
early Friday.

Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 141742
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
200 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

...LEE'S LARGE WIND FIELD MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 68.4W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Massachusetts coast from Woods Hole to Hull
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts
* Block Island
* North of Hull Massachusetts to Stonington Maine
* New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to
Porter's Lake

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Cod Bay
* Nantucket

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 68.4 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn
toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
pass west of Bermuda through this evening, approach the coast
of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move
across Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (150
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, but Lee is
expected to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the next
couple of days.

Lee is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A sustained wind of 39 mph
(63 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (81 km/h) has recently been reported
at the L.F. Wade International Airport on Bermuda. NOAA buoy 41048
located about 90 miles (145 km) northwest of the center of Lee
has recently reported a peak one-minute sustained wind of 54 mph
(86 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Cape Cod,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket on Friday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area elsewhere
in coastal New England and Atlantic Canada late Friday into
Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft
Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
Nantucket...2-4 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft
Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda today into
early Friday.

Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 141441
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

The satellite presentation of Lee has degraded over the past day or
so. An eye is no longer apparent but deep convection continues to
wrap around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation.
Deep convection has waned over the southwestern portions of the
cyclone, likely due to an increase in southwesterly vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft that has been investigating Lee this morning has measured
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 96 kt, and the NOAA P-3 aircraft
has found peak 8000 ft flight-level winds of 100 kt. However, peak
SFMR winds from both aircraft have been around 70 kt. Using a blend
of the flight-level and SFMR data, the initial wind speed has been
lowered to 80 kt, but this could be a little generous.

Lee is moving northward at a slightly faster forward speed of 12 kt.
A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected during
the next day or so around the western side of a mid-level ridge over
the central Atlantic. A slight bend to the north-northwest toward
the Gulf of Maine is likely late Friday or early Saturday as the
southern extent of mid-latitude trough moves off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. After that time, Lee is forecast to turn northeastward over
Atlantic Canada. The dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered
and only minor adjustments were made to the previous official
forecast. The NHC track is close to a blend of the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

Southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to increase over Lee
during the next 24 to 36 hours, and this is likely to lead to
gradual weakening during that time. Sea surface temperatures will
decrease significantly just after 36 hours when Lee moves north of
the Gulf Stream. The global model guidance suggests that Lee will
begin extratropical transition Friday night and this is likely to be
completed within 48 hours, if not a little sooner. The NHC
intensity forecast is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus and
and the IVCN consensus model. It can't be stressed enough, that
regardless of Lee's designation, it will remain a large and
dangerous cyclone while it approaches eastern New England and
Atlantic Canada.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf will
continue to impact Bermuda through Friday morning, and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova
Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for that
area. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Cape Cod, Martha's
Vineyard, and Nantucket where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in
effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere across New
England and Atlantic Canada within the Tropical Storm Watch areas.

3. Heavy rainfall from Lee may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding across eastern New England and into portions of New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia from Friday night into Saturday night.

4. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding
in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and
Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a Storm Surge Watch is in
effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 30.4N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 32.2N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 35.0N 67.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 38.2N 66.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 41.5N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 44.0N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 47.0N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z 52.6N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 141441
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR CAPE COD, MARTHA'S VINEYARD,
AND NANTUCKET...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 68.3W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of
Massachusetts from Woods Hole to Hull, including Cape Cod,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
* Massachusetts coast from Woods Hole to Hull
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts
* Block Island
* North of Hull Massachusetts to Stonington Maine
* New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to
Porter's Lake

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Cod Bay
* Nantucket

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 68.3 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn
toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
pass west of Bermuda today and tonight, approach the coast of New
England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move across
Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150
km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, but Lee is expected
to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the next couple of
days.

Lee is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A wind gust of 48 mph (78
km/h) has recently been reported at the L.F. Wade International
Airport on Bermuda. NOAA buoy 41048 located about 130 miles (210
km) northwest of the center of Lee has recently reported a peak
one-minute sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph
(107 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Cape Cod,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket on Friday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area elsewhere
in coastal New England and Atlantic Canada late Friday into
Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft
Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
Nantucket...2-4 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft
Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and are beginning to reach Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda today into
early Friday.

Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This may produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 141440
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 68.3W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT.......140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT.......270NE 250SE 170SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..435NE 450SE 390SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 68.3W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.2N 68.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.0N 67.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 180SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.2N 66.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 210SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...260NE 250SE 210SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 44.0N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.0N 63.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 52.6N 52.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 68.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 141156
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
800 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ON BERMUDA...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 68.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to
Porter?--s Lake

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Cod Bay
* Nantucket

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 68.2 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn
toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
pass west of Bermuda today and tonight, approach the coast of New
England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move across
Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, but Lee is expected to remain a large
and dangerous hurricane for the next couple of days.

Lee is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km). A wind gust of 44 mph (70
km/h) has recently been reported at the L.F. Wade International
Airport on Bermuda. An elevated observing site at the National
Museum of Bermuda has recently measured sustained winds of 53 mph
(85 km/h) with a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h). NOAA buoy 41048 located
about 160 miles (260 km) northwest of the center of Lee has recently
reported a peak one-minute sustained wind of 51 mph (83 km/h) and a
gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through
Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in coastal New England and Atlantic Canada late Friday into
Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft
Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
Nantucket...2-4 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft
Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and are beginning to reach Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee could produce rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda today into
early Friday.

From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This could produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 140849
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

Lee's satellite presentation has been a little deceiving early this
morning, as earlier reconnaissance flight-level and dropsonde
surface wind data indicated that the hurricane's center was located
about 15-20 n mi to the west of the satellite eye feature. On the
last couple of passes of the Air Force Reserve C-130 through the
center, the highest 700-mb wind measured was 95 kt, and peak SFMR
readings from both the Air Force and NOAA were 70-75 kt. Accounting
for some undersampling, Lee's initial intensity is reduced slightly
to 85 kt.

The initial motion remains 350/8 kt. A faster northward motion,
with some wobbles, is expected during the next 2-3 days as Lee
moves between a mid-tropospheric high over the west-central Atlantic
and a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. As noted
in earlier forecasts, a slight bend to the west toward the Gulf
of Maine is likely in 48-60 hours when Lee interacts with the tail
end of the trough over the Mid-Atlantic states. A turn toward the
north-northeast and then northeast is forecast on days 3 and 4,
bringing Lee's center across Atlantic Canada. The NHC track
forecast is nearly on top of the previous forecast, largely due to
consistent and tightly clustered model guidance.

The latest shear analyses suggest that moderate southwesterly shear
has begun to affect Lee, and this is confirmed by the offset of
the aircraft fixes relative to the satellite eye feature. The
shear is forecast to increase further in 24-36 hours, which will
cause Lee to ingest drier and more stable air into its circulation.
In addition, sea surface temperatures along Lee's future path drop
off significantly after 36 hours. Therefore, continued gradual
weakening is forecast, and the NHC intensity forecast is at or
slightly above the intensity consensus aids for much of the
forecast period. Extratropical transition is likely to begin on
Friday as Lee interacts with a frontal boundary moving off the east
coast of the United States, and a good chunk of the guidance
suggests the transition could be complete by 60 hours. In order to
maintain continuity with the previous forecast, Lee is now shown to
be a fully post-tropical cyclone by 72 hours. Regardless of its
designation, Lee will remain a large and dangerous cyclone while it
approaches eastern New England and Atlantic Canada into the weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are
beginning to impact Bermuda, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova
Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for that
area. Heavy rainfall in these areas may produce localized urban
and small stream flooding from Friday night into Saturday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere across New England
and Atlantic Canada within the Tropical Storm Watch areas.

3. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding
in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and
Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a Storm Surge Watch is
in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 29.1N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 30.7N 68.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 33.3N 67.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 36.3N 66.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 39.5N 66.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 42.5N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 45.2N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0600Z 50.2N 58.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/0600Z 54.6N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 140848
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

...LEE'S EXPANSIVE WIND AND WAVE FIELD PROGRESSING NORTHWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 68.1W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to
Porter?--s Lake

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Cod Bay
* Nantucket

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 68.1 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn
toward the north-northeast and then northeast is forecast Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will
pass west of Bermuda today and tonight, approach the coast of New
England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday, and move across
Atlantic Canada Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast, but Lee is expected to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane for the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290
miles (465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning in Bermuda and will
continue through Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch areas in Down East Maine and in Atlantic Canada
on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area in coastal New England and Atlantic
Canada late Friday into Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft
Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
Nantucket...2-4 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft
Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and are beginning to reach Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee could produce rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda today into
early Friday.

From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This could produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 140847
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 68.1W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT.......140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 170SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..435NE 420SE 390SW 500NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 68.1W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.7N 68.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.3N 67.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.3N 66.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
34 KT...260NE 250SE 210SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.5N 66.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 210SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.5N 66.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 230SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.2N 65.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 50.2N 58.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 54.6N 45.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 68.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 140547
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
200 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA IN A FEW
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 68.0W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, Maine to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to
Porter?--s Lake

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Cod Bay
* Nantucket

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 68.0 West. Lee is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally northward motion
and an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda
today and tonight and then approach the coast of New England and
Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Lee
is expected to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km). Saildrone 1065 recently measured a sustained wind
of 73 mph (117 km/h), a gust to 94 mph (152 km/h), and a
significant wave height of 44 feet (13.3 meters) while located
about 65 miles (100 km) northeast of Lee's center.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 953 mb
(28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda starting
in a few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of
Down East Maine and in the Hurricane Watch area in Atlantic Canada
on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of
coastal New England and Atlantic Canada in the Tropical Storm Watch
area beginning Friday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft
Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
Nantucket...2-4 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft
Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States, and are beginning to reach Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee could produce rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda today into
early Friday.

From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This could produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 140247
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 67.7W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT.......230NE 230SE 170SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..500NE 390SE 480SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 67.7W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 67.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.9N 68.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.8N 67.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.7N 66.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 210SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.0N 66.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 200SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 44.0N 66.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 49.4N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 53.7N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 67.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 140248
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft have
been investigating Lee this evening. They found that the central
pressure has not changed much since earlier today, and that the
hurricane still had concentric eyewalls, but these were partially
open over portions of the western quadrant. The Air Force
plane measured 700 mb flight-level winds as high as 105 kt and
the NOAA plane found winds as high as 107 kt at a flight level of
8000 ft. Tail Doppler radar velocities from the NOAA plane were
near 100 kt at elevations of 0.5 km. These observations support
maintaining the intensity at 90 kt for this advisory. Satellite
imagery also suggests that the eyewall is not fully closed but
there is fairly intense inner-core convection.

There has been a (likely temporary) decrease in forward speed and
the initial motion is just west of due north or 350/8 kt. The
steering scenario for the hurricane is essentially unchanged from
the previous few advisories. A 500-mb trough moving into the
northeastern U.S. and a mid-level ridge near eastern Atlantic
Canada should cause Lee to move generally northward at a faster
forward speed during the next couple of days. A slight bend to the
left is likely around 48 hours while the tropical cyclone interacts
with the trough. This will likely bring the center of Lee close to
southeastern New England late Friday before it moves near or over
Maine and Atlantic Canada later in the weekend. The official track
forecast is similar to the previous one and closely follows both the
simple and corrected dynamical consensus guidance.

Over the next couple of days, Lee will encounter significantly
increasing vertical wind shear and somewhat drier mid- to low-level
air. Sea surface temperatures along the projected track decrease
sharply north of around 40N latitude. These conditions should cause
weakening, but since the hurricane has such a large circulation, the
weakening will likely be slow. The NHC intensity forecast is near
or above the highest available model guidance. Notwithstanding,
there is still high confidence that Lee will be a large and
dangerous cyclone when it moves near or over land on Saturday.

It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is
because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are
expected to impact Bermuda beginning early Thursday, and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova
Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that
area. Heavy rainfall in these areas may produce localized urban
and small stream flooding from Friday night into Saturday night.

3. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding
in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and
Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a Storm Surge Watch has
been issued.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible over a large portion of
coastal New England, including Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha's
Vineyard, Block Island, and portions of Atlantic Canada, where a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 28.0N 67.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 29.6N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 31.9N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 34.8N 67.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 37.7N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 41.0N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 44.0N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 49.4N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/0000Z 53.7N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 140247
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 67.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
coast of New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island. A Hurricane Watch has also been
issued for the coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour.

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort
Lawrence. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast
of Nova Scotia from north of Digby eastward to Onslow, then westward
and northward to Fort Lawrence. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for the southeast coast of Nova Scotia from north of Medway
Harbour to Porter?--s Lake.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, ME to the U.S./Canada border
* New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau,
including Grand Manan Island
* Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill, RI to Stonington, ME
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
* New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence
* Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to
Porter?--s Lake

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Cod Bay
* Nantucket

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 67.7 West. Lee is moving toward
the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally northward motion and an
increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda
Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast of New
England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lee is expected to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda starting
early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of
Down East Maine and in the Hurricane Watch area in Atlantic Canada
on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of
coastal New England and Atlantic Canada in the Tropical Storm Watch
area beginning Friday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft
Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
Nantucket...2-4 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft
Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the
wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States and are beginning to reach Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee could produce rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday
into early Friday.

From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This could produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 132357
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
800 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER BERMUDA BY EARLY
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 67.7W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, ME to the U.S./Canada border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill, RI to Stonington, ME
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Cod Bay
* Nantucket

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. Additional watches will
likely be required for a portion of these areas tonight or Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lee was located by
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 27.6
North, longitude 67.7 West. Lee is moving toward the
north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the north
and an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda
Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast of New
England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days,
however, Lee is likely to remain a very large and dangerous
hurricane into the weekend.

Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 951 mb (28.08 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda
starting early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in
portions of down-east Maine on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in portions of coastal New England within the Tropical
Storm Watch area beginning Friday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft
Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
Nantucket...2-4 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft
Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States and are beginning to reach Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee could produce rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday
into early Friday.

From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This could produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 132045
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Lee earlier this
afternoon and found that the hurricane has lost some strength. The
initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt based on the aircraft data.
Although the core winds have decreased some, the wind field has
become quite expansive, with the hurricane-force winds now extending
roughly 100 n mi away from the center. The satellite appearance of
Lee has been relatively steady state through the day and there is
still evidence of concentric eyewalls.

Lee's forward speed is beginning to increase, and it is now moving
north-northwestward at 9 kt. A progressively faster motion to the
north on the west side of a subtropical ridge is forecast during the
next couple of days, taking the core of the system to the west of
Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night. The combination of a shortwave
trough over the Mid-Atlantic States and a building ridge extending
into Atlantic Canada should cause Lee to turn slightly to the left
Friday night and Saturday, which will likely bring Lee close to
southeastern New England before it moves near or over Maine and
Atlantic Canada later in the weekend. The GFS and ECMWF models
have converged, and are now near the previous NHC track forecast.
The new NHC track forecast is again just an update of the previous
one and near the various consensus models.

The environment ahead of Lee is expected to gradually become less
conducive for the hurricane as it moves into a region of higher
wind shear, drier air, and over progressively cooler SSTs. These
conditions favor weakening, but since the system is so large the
weakening process should be slow. The NHC intensity forecast is a
little lower than the previous one, in part due to the initial lower
wind speed, and remains near the HCCA and IVCN guidance.
Regardless of the details, there is high confidence that Lee will be
a large hurricane near the coast of New England Friday night and
Saturday.

It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is
because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are
expected to impact Bermuda beginning early Thursday, and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding are
possible in portions of eastern Maine on Saturday, and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued for that area.

3. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding
in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and
Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a Storm Surge Watch has
been issued.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible over a large portion of
coastal New England, including Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha's
Vineyard, and Block Island, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 27.4N 67.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 28.7N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 30.9N 68.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 33.4N 67.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 36.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 39.7N 66.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 42.6N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 47.7N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1800Z 52.3N 52.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 132043
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
...STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 67.6W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of down-east Maine
from Stonington to the U.S./Canada border.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a large area of coastal
New England from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine,
including Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket,
Massachusetts

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Stonington, ME to the U.S./Canada border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill, RI to Stonington, ME
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Cod Bay
* Nantucket

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic
Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. Additional watches will
likely be required for a portion of these areas tonight or Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 67.6 West. Lee is moving toward
the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the
north and an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda
Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast of New
England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days,
however, Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous
hurricane into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda
starting early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in
portions of down-east Maine on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in portions of coastal New England within the Tropical
Storm Watch area beginning Friday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft
Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
Nantucket...2-4 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft
Boston Harbor...1-3 ft
Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft
Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft
Long Island Sound...1-3 ft
Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft
Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the
east coast of the United States and are beginning to reach Atlantic
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee could produce rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday
into early Friday.

From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across
portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia. This could produce localized urban and small stream
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 132042
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 67.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT.......140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT.......230NE 230SE 170SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 67.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 67.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 68.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.4N 67.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.4N 67.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 210SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.7N 66.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 200SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.6N 66.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 47.7N 63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 52.3N 52.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 67.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 131745
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
200 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING LEE...
...RISK OF WIND, COASTAL FLOODING, AND RAIN IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 67.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee. Watches will likely be
required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 67.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is
expected by tonight, followed by an increase in speed on Thursday
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west
of Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast
of New England or Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few
days, however, Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous
hurricane into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data
from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 952 mb (28.11 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda
starting early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting
portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coast, and these
conditions are forecast to spread northward across New England and
Atlantic Canada later today. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 131438
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

Lee continues to exhibit concentric eyewalls, but there are some dry
slots between those features. An SSMIS microwave image around 10Z
showed that both eyewalls were open, however, recent infrared
satellite images indicate that the inner eyewall appears to be
becoming better organized during the past few hours. The initial
wind speed is held at 100 kt, but this is near the high end of the
latest satellite intensity estimates. The Air Force Hurricane
Hunters are scheduled to investigate Lee this afternoon, and the
data they collect should provide a better assessment of the
hurricane's intensity and structure.

Satellite images suggest that Lee seems to be beginning its
northward turn on the western side of a subtropical ridge situated
over the central Atlantic. The latest initial motion estimate is
345/6 kt. Lee should gradually increase in forward speed while
moving northward on the west side of the ridge during the next
couple of days, taking the core of the system to the west of Bermuda
Thursday and Thursday night. The combination of a shortwave trough
and a building ridge extending into Atlantic Canada could cause Lee
to turn slightly to the left Friday night and Saturday, which will
likely bring Lee close to southeastern New England before it reaches
Maine and Atlantic Canada later in the weekend. Confidence is
increasing in the forecast track, and the model spread is mostly
along-track, associated with the system's forward speed/timing.
Overall, little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast,
and it remains very near the various consensus models.

Lee is expected to gradually weaken as it moves into an environment
of increasing vertical wind shear, slightly drier air, and over
progressively cooler waters during the next few days. However, the
large size of the system suggests that the weakening process should
be slow. In addition, Lee is expected to grow in size as it gains
latitude during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely the same as the previous one and fairly close to the HCCA
and IVCN models. Regardless of the details, there is high
confidence that Lee will be a large hurricane near the coast of New
England Friday night and Saturday.

It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is
because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, the U.S East Coast, and Atlantic Canada into the weekend.

2. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are
expected to impact Bermuda beginning early Thursday, and a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

3. There is an increasing risk of wind, coastal flooding, and rain
impacts from Lee in portions of New England and Atlantic Canada
beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend. Watches
will likely required for portions of these areas later today or
tonight. Due to Lee's large size, hazards will extend well away
from the center, and there will be little to no significance on
exactly where the center reaches the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 26.4N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 27.6N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 29.6N 68.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 31.8N 68.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 34.6N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 37.9N 67.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 41.1N 67.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 46.1N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 52.1N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 131437
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BEGINNING EARLY
TOMORROW...
...RISK OF WIND, COASTAL FLOODING, AND RAIN IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee. Watches will likely be
required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Lee is moving toward
the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is
expected by tonight, followed by an increase in speed on Thursday
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west
of Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast
of New England or Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few
days, however, Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous
hurricane into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda
starting early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting
portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coast, and these
conditions are forecast to spread northward across New England and
Atlantic Canada later today. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 131436
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 67.2W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 160SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 350SE 375SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 67.2W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.6N 67.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.6N 68.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 230SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.8N 68.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 230SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 240SE 190SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.9N 67.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 200SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.1N 67.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 210SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 46.1N 66.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 52.1N 56.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 67.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 131142
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
800 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA
BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW...
...RISK OF WIND, COASTAL FLOODING, AND RAIN IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 67.2W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee. Watches may be required for a
portion of these areas later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 67.2 West. Lee is moving toward
the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward
turn and an increase in speed on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda Thursday
and Thursday night and then approach the coast of New England or
Atlantic Canada late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next
few days, however, Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous
hurricane into the weekend.

Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda
starting early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions are
forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast and
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 130853
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

Lee's structure is very gradually declining in organization. The
hurricane has a ragged but somewhat elliptical 25-30 n mi wide eye,
but deep convection has become eroded a bit within the western
semicircle, possibly due to some moderate westerly shear. In
addition, a 0607 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass showed that the eyewall
was open on the southwest side at that time. Subjective and
objective satellite estimates range from 90-105 kt, so Lee's
initial intensity remains 100 kt for now.

The hurricane is very slowly making its turn around a west-central
Atlantic mid-level high, with its motion now northwestward at
325/5 kt. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the next
2 days or so, showing Lee turning and accelerating toward the
north-northwest and north between the high and a shortwave trough
swinging across the Great Lakes region. Lee's core is forecast to
pass west of Bermuda in 36-48 hours, but tropical storm conditions
are likely to begin there late tonight or early Thursday due to the
hurricane's large wind field. On days 3 and 4, Lee is expected to
maintain a general northward track offshore the northeastern U.S.
However, the global models are suggesting that the hurricane
will interact with a remnant mid-level trough over the mid-Atlantic
states, causing Lee to possibly bend just west of due north while
it moves across the Gulf of Maine. Under the assumption that the
global models will have a better handle on this mid-latitude
pattern as compared to the regional hurricane models, the NHC track
forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models (GFEX)
on days 3, 4, and 5, and therefore ends up being a bit west and
then north of the previous prediction on those days.

A number of factors--including Lee's broad structure, increasing
shear, and potential upwelling of cooler waters--are likely to lead
to a very gradual decrease in the hurricane's maximum winds during
the next 3 days or so. In addition, Lee is likely to begin
extratropical transition in 2-3 days, with that process expected to
be complete just before the cyclone's center reaches the coast of
Maine, New Brunswick, or Nova Scotia in about 4 days. That said,
Lee's expected post-tropical transition will not diminish potential
wind, rain, and coastal flooding impacts in New England and Atlantic
Canada due to the system's broad wind field.

It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is
because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week.

2. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are
expected to impact Bermuda beginning late tonight or early Thursday,
and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

3. There is an increasing risk of wind, coastal flooding, and rain
impacts from Lee in portions of New England and Atlantic Canada
beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend. Watches may
be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight.
Due to Lee's large size, hazards will extend well away from the
center, and there will be little to no significance on exactly where
the center reaches the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 25.7N 67.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 26.6N 67.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 28.4N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 30.5N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 33.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 36.1N 67.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 39.6N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 45.2N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 18/0600Z 51.0N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 130852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

...LEE JUST ABOUT TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...RISK OF WIND, COASTAL FLOODING, AND RAIN IMPACTS INCREASING FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 67.1W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee. Watches may be required for a
portion of these areas later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 67.1 West. Lee is moving toward
the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward
turn and an increase in speed on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda
Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast of New
England or Atlantic Canada late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next
few days, however Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous
hurricane into the weekend.

Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda starting
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions are
forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast and
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 130852
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC WED SEP 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 67.1W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT.......210NE 210SE 160SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 315SE 375SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 67.1W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 66.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.4N 68.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.5N 68.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 230SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 240SE 190SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.1N 67.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
34 KT...260NE 250SE 200SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.6N 67.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.
34 KT...270NE 260SE 210SW 230NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 45.2N 67.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 51.0N 61.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 67.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 130538
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
200 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2023

...LEE CHURNING UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH DANGEROUS SEAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 66.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 66.9 West. Lee is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). Lee is forecast to turn
toward the north on Thursday and increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, however Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous
hurricane for the next couple of days.

Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).
Saildrone 1036, located about 45 miles (75 km) west-northwest of
Lee's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 68 mph
(109 km/h), a wind gust to 88 mph (142 km/h), and a significant
wave height of 37 feet (11.4 meters).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda starting
tonight or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions are
forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast and
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 130242
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

Geostationary satellite images show that Lee has a large eye about
40 n mi in diameter surrounded by very cold-topped central
convection. There are numerous convective banding features,
especially over the northern portion of the circulation. The
cirrus-level outflow pattern is fairly symmetric at this time,
suggesting that the vertical wind shear over the system is still
low. The intensity estimate is held at 100 kt for this advisory,
which is a blend of subjective and objective satellite estimates
from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS. The objective intensity estimates
are generally a little higher than the subjective values.

Lee continues to move on a generally northwestward heading, with a
motion estimate of 320/6 kt, on the southwestern side of a
mid-level anticyclone. Over the next couple of days, a 500-mb
trough moving through the eastern United States should induce a
northward turn with some increase in forward speed. Even though
the predicted track has the center of the hurricane passing well to
the west of Bermuda, Lee's very large wind field should result in
tropical storm conditions spreading over the island by late
Wednesday or early Thursday. In the 3 to 4 day time frame, the
model guidance suggests just a slight leftward bend in the track
while Lee interacts with the trough. There has been little change
to the NHC forecast track, which remains close to the corrected and
simple model consensus predictions. After 96 hours, Lee should
turn northeastward and east-northeastward in the mid-latitude
westerlies.

Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next few days days
while Lee moves over cooler waters and encounters high vertical
wind shear. However the system is likely to remain a large and
dangerous hurricane while it approaches the coast. If Lee moves
faster than forecast over the colder waters north of the Gulf
Stream, it will likely retain more of its strength when it reaches
land. Around 96 hours, simulated satellite imagery from the global
models show the appearance of an extratropical cyclone with
decreased convection and an asymmetric cloud pattern.

It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text product and graphics are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is
because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week.

2. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are
expected to impact Bermuda beginning Wednesday night or early
Thursday, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the
island.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee
might have along the northeastern U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada
late this week and this weekend. However, since wind and rainfall
hazards will extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size,
users should continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during
the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 25.3N 66.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 26.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 27.7N 67.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 29.7N 68.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 32.1N 67.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 35.0N 67.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 38.0N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 44.0N 66.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/0000Z 48.5N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 130241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

...LARGE LEE LUMBERING NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 66.7W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 66.7 West. Lee is moving toward
the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). Lee is forecast to turn toward
the north on Thursday and increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, however Lee is likely to remain a large and
dangerous hurricane for the next couple of days.

Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).
Saildrone 1036, located about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Lee's
center, recently reported a wind gust to 88 mph (141 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda starting
late Wednesday or early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions are
forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast and
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 130240
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 66.7W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT.......110NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT.......150NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT.......210NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 390SE 300SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 66.7W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 66.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.1N 67.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.7N 67.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...230NE 210SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.7N 68.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
50 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.1N 67.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 65SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
34 KT...250NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.0N 67.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.
34 KT...250NE 240SE 200SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N 66.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 210SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 44.0N 66.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 48.5N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 66.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 122343
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
800 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 66.5W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 66.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). Lee is forecast to turn toward
the north on Thursday and increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, though the wind field will remain large.

Lee is very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). Saildrone 1036,
located about 70 miles (115 km) northwest of Lee's center, recently
reported a wind gust to 92 mph (148 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm force winds are possible on Bermuda starting
early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions are
forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast and
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 2 inches, 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 122057
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

GOES-East satellite and information from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane indicate a slight recent improvement in the
inner-eye structure with a 5-mb pressure fall noted in the most
recent pass. However, peak 700-mb flight-level winds were lower
than 6 hr ago with SFMR estimates about the same. Given the mixed
signals, we will maintain the initial wind speed at 100 kts for
this advisory. The big change in the aircraft data was the sizable
expansion of the whole wind field in the eastern semicircle
of the hurricane, which was also shown by a late-arriving SAR pass
this morning.

Lee has turned northwestward (315/6 kt) as the mid-level ridging
continues to its north and east. A digging eastern United States
trough remains on track to weaken the ridge during the next few
days. Lee is expected to turn more northward and accelerate by
Thursday as a result of this pattern change. Even though the core
of Lee is expected to be well west of Bermuda, Lee's large wind
field could arrive early Thursday on the island. After day 3,
there is an increase in guidance spread as the hurricane interacts
with an approaching frontal zone, which could cause a small
leftward bend in the track. However, recent guidance has tightened
somewhat, and the official forecast follows a middle-ground
solution similar to the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means, on the fast side
of the consensus.

The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken over the next few
days while it moves over cooler waters into a higher-shear
environment. Still, all of the guidance keep this system quite
large and at hurricane-strength for the next few days. Once the
circulation reaches the colder water north of the Gulf Stream, more
significant weakening is expected at the day 4-5 period as it
quickly transitions to an extratropical low. Little change was
made to the previous forecast, which is also close to the consensus
aids, and the forward speed north of the Gulf Stream will be
important in the exact wind speed as Lee approaches the mainland.

Note- The 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in
the text product and graphics are likely underestimating the risk
of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field
of Lee is considerably larger than average compared to the wind
field used to derive the wind speed probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week.

2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, rainfall, and high
surf impacts to Bermuda later this week, and a Tropical Storm Watch
remains in effect for the island.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee
might have along the northeastern U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada
late this week and this weekend. However, since wind and rainfall
hazards will extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size,
users should continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during
the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 24.7N 66.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 25.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 26.7N 67.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 28.6N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 30.7N 68.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 33.4N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 36.4N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 42.8N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 47.1N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Gallina/Blake/Bann

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 122056
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS LEE GROWING IN SIZE...
...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 66.4W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 66.4 West. Lee is moving toward
the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). Lee is forecast to turn toward
the north on Thursday and increase in forward speed.

Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours though the
wind field is to remain large.

Lee is very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches)
based on dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm force winds are possible on Bermuda starting
early Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions are
forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast and
Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

RAIN: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of 1 to
2 inches, 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Gallina/Blake/Bann

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 122056
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 66.4W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT.......110NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT.......150NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT.......210NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 66.4W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 66.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.4N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.7N 67.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...230NE 210SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 70SE 55SW 70NW.
50 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.7N 68.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 65SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
34 KT...250NE 240SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.4N 67.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.
34 KT...250NE 240SE 190SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.4N 66.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 210SW 250NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 42.8N 66.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 47.1N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 66.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER GALLINA/BLAKE/BANN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 121758
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING LEE...
...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 66.2W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 66.2 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by
a turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track, Lee is
expected to pass near but to the west of Bermuda in a few days.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.
Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
but Lee is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm force winds are possible on Bermuda starting
Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions are
forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast
during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAIN: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of 1 to
2 inches, 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Gallina/Blake/Bann

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 121439
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

GOES-16 satellite and radar images from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
indicate that Lee is trying to consolidate into one large eyewall,
but the eye remains obscured with fragments of the old eyewall
structures. Peak 700-mb flight-level winds were about 110 kt, 0.5
km radar estimates were near 121 kt and surface SFMR estimates were
about 90 kt, which could be under sampled with such a large
radius of maximum winds. The initial wind speed is held at 100 kt
as a compromise of the aircraft estimates.

Lee is still moving slowly west-northwestward (300/5 kt), with
mid-level ridging established to the north and east of the
hurricane. This steering pattern is expected to change during the
next couple of days as a deep-layer trough moves across the eastern
United States and produces a weakness in this ridge. As a result,
Lee is forecast to turn northward and gradually accelerate during
the middle and latter parts of this week. The track guidance
envelope shows little cross-track spread during the first 3 days of
the forecast period, and this portion of the NHC forecast is fairly
similar to the previous one. While the core of the hurricane is
forecast to pass west of Bermuda, the large wind field of the storm
is likely to bring wind impacts to the island on Thursday,
prompting the Bermuda Weather Service to issue a Tropical Storm
Watch. The latest NHC track was a compromise between the 6z GEFS
and ECMWF ensembles in the days 4/5 time frame, as it is still too
early to know if any leftward bend will occur as Lee approaches
North America.

No significant change in strength is expected in the near-term with
Lee due to its current structure and large wind field. Going
forward, the large hurricane appears likely to begin upwelling
cooler waters along its path, and in a few days it will encounter
the cool wake left behind by recent western Atlantic hurricanes.
Thus, gradual weakening is forecast through midweek. Later, the
aforementioned trough is expected to produce stronger deep-layer
shear over Lee, and the hurricane is forecast to move over
significantly cooler waters as it passes north of the Gulf Stream.
As a result, more significant weakening is shown at days 4-5, along
with completion of its extratropical transition. Despite the
forecast weakening, it is important to note that the expanding wind
field of Lee will produce impacts well away from the storm center.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week.

2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, rainfall, and high
surf impacts to Bermuda later this week, and a Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued for the island.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee
might have along the northeastern U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada
late this week and this weekend. However, since wind and rainfall
hazards will extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size,
users should continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during
the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 24.3N 65.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 24.8N 66.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 25.9N 67.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 27.4N 67.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 29.4N 68.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 31.6N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 34.3N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 40.7N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 45.3N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake/Gallina

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 121438
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 65.9W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Lee.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 65.9 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by
a turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track, Lee is
expected to pass near but to the west of Bermuda in a few days.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lee
is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches)
based on dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm force winds are possible on Bermuda starting
Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions are
forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast
during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAIN: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of 1 to
2 inches, 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake/Gallina

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 121438
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 65.9W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......180NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 330SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 65.9W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 65.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.9N 67.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.4N 67.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 65SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...135NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.4N 68.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N 68.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 180SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.3N 67.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...240NE 230SE 200SW 230NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 40.7N 66.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 45.3N 65.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 65.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BANN/BLAKE/GALLINA

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 120851
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

Lee continues to exhibit a concentric eyewall structure in
conventional satellite imagery. This has been confirmed by the Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters that investigated Lee early this
morning, and they reported the outer eyewall had a large diameter of
80 n mi. The maximum 700-mb flight-level wind measured by the
aircraft was 112 kt in the northeast quadrant, while the SFMR winds
peaked around 90 kt. Although the satellite intensity estimates have
fallen a bit this morning, the reduced flight-level winds support
holding the initial intensity at 100 kt for this advisory. The
minimum pressure of Lee remains 948 mb based on dropsonde data.

Lee is still moving slowly west-northwestward (290/6 kt), with
mid-level ridging established to the north and west of the
hurricane. This steering pattern is expected to change during the
next couple of days as a deep-layer trough moves across the eastern
United States and produces a weakness in this ridge. As a result,
Lee is forecast to turn northward and gradually accelerate during
the middle and latter parts of this week. The track guidance
envelope shows little cross-track spread during the first 3 days of
the forecast period, and this portion of the NHC forecast is fairly
similar to the previous one. While the core of the hurricane is
forecast to pass west of Bermuda, the large wind field of the storm
is likely to bring wind impacts to the island later this week, and
tropical storm watches could be required later today. At days 4-5,
there has been a slight westward shift in the guidance envelope, and
accordingly the NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction
toward the HCCA and TVCA aids.

Based on Lee's current satellite structure, as well as its slow
forward motion and large wind field, little near-term strengthening
is expected. Going forward, the large hurricane appears likely to
begin upwelling cooler waters along its path, and in a few days it
will encounter the cool wake left behind by recent western Atlantic
hurricanes. Thus, gradual weakening is forecast through midweek.
Later, the aforementioned trough is expected to produce stronger
deep-layer shear over Lee, and the hurricane is forecast to move
over significantly cooler waters as it passes north of the Gulf
Stream. As a result, more significant weakening is shown at days
4-5, along with completion of its extratropical transition. Despite
the weakening that is forecast, keep in mind that the expanding wind
field of Lee will produce impacts well away from the storm center.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week.

2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, rainfall, and high
surf impacts to Bermuda later this week, and tropical storm watches
could be required for the island later today.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee
might have along the Northeastern U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada
late this week and this weekend. However, since wind and rainfall
hazards will extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size,
users should continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during
the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 24.0N 65.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 24.4N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 25.3N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 26.6N 67.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 28.3N 67.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 30.4N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 32.9N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 39.0N 66.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 44.5N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 120849
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

...LEE REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...
...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 65.4W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Lee. Watches
could be required for Bermuda later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 65.4 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by
a turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track, Lee is
expected to pass near but to the west of Bermuda in a few days.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Lee is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches)
based on dropsonde data from the aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions are
forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast
during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 120848
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 65.4W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 65.4W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 65.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.4N 66.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.3N 67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.6N 67.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 65SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.3N 67.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.4N 68.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.9N 67.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 180SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 39.0N 66.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 44.5N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 65.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 120413

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.09.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 31.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2023 0 12.3N 31.6W 1012 16
1200UTC 12.09.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 39.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2023 0 27.5N 39.8W 986 50
1200UTC 12.09.2023 12 30.0N 39.6W 981 49
0000UTC 13.09.2023 24 32.0N 40.1W 979 48
1200UTC 13.09.2023 36 33.5N 41.3W 983 47
0000UTC 14.09.2023 48 34.5N 42.0W 989 45
1200UTC 14.09.2023 60 35.6N 41.7W 992 50
0000UTC 15.09.2023 72 36.2N 41.1W 991 47
1200UTC 15.09.2023 84 36.7N 40.7W 989 49
0000UTC 16.09.2023 96 36.3N 40.8W 992 52
1200UTC 16.09.2023 108 35.8N 41.8W 997 48
0000UTC 17.09.2023 120 35.9N 44.0W 1003 42
1200UTC 17.09.2023 132 36.9N 46.4W 1008 33
0000UTC 18.09.2023 144 39.7N 46.7W 1010 33
1200UTC 18.09.2023 156 43.0N 43.3W 1006 35
0000UTC 19.09.2023 168 45.2N 35.2W 994 43

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 21.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2023 0 11.5N 21.6W 1013 19
1200UTC 12.09.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 64.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2023 0 23.9N 64.4W 945 82
1200UTC 12.09.2023 12 24.2N 65.8W 952 84
0000UTC 13.09.2023 24 24.8N 66.6W 937 89
1200UTC 13.09.2023 36 26.0N 67.2W 946 83
0000UTC 14.09.2023 48 27.6N 67.5W 943 83
1200UTC 14.09.2023 60 29.5N 68.0W 945 77
0000UTC 15.09.2023 72 31.7N 67.8W 941 78
1200UTC 15.09.2023 84 34.2N 66.8W 953 66
0000UTC 16.09.2023 96 37.8N 65.9W 958 76
1200UTC 16.09.2023 108 41.4N 65.6W 963 59
0000UTC 17.09.2023 120 44.7N 65.3W 977 45
1200UTC 17.09.2023 132 47.6N 63.5W 989 39
0000UTC 18.09.2023 144 49.8N 60.3W 994 33
1200UTC 18.09.2023 156 51.2N 54.1W 998 38
0000UTC 19.09.2023 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 19.3N 46.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2023 108 19.3N 46.8W 1008 31
0000UTC 17.09.2023 120 20.8N 48.3W 1008 29
1200UTC 17.09.2023 132 23.3N 50.4W 1006 34
0000UTC 18.09.2023 144 24.8N 51.8W 1004 37
1200UTC 18.09.2023 156 25.9N 55.3W 1001 37
0000UTC 19.09.2023 168 28.0N 57.9W 999 41


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120412

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 120412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.09.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 31.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2023 12.3N 31.6W WEAK
12UTC 12.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 39.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2023 27.5N 39.8W MODERATE
12UTC 12.09.2023 30.0N 39.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2023 32.0N 40.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2023 33.5N 41.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2023 34.5N 42.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2023 35.6N 41.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2023 36.2N 41.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2023 36.7N 40.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2023 36.3N 40.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2023 35.8N 41.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2023 35.9N 44.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2023 36.9N 46.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2023 39.7N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2023 43.0N 43.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2023 45.2N 35.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 21.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2023 11.5N 21.6W WEAK
12UTC 12.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 64.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2023 23.9N 64.4W INTENSE
12UTC 12.09.2023 24.2N 65.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2023 24.8N 66.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2023 26.0N 67.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2023 27.6N 67.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2023 29.5N 68.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2023 31.7N 67.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2023 34.2N 66.8W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.09.2023 37.8N 65.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2023 41.4N 65.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2023 44.7N 65.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2023 47.6N 63.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2023 49.8N 60.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2023 51.2N 54.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 19.3N 46.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2023 19.3N 46.8W WEAK
00UTC 17.09.2023 20.8N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2023 23.3N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2023 24.8N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2023 25.9N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2023 28.0N 57.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120412

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 120253
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2023

This evening, Lee appears to be in the final stages of completing
another eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). A GPM microwave pass at
2201 UTC showed that the outer eyewall remains closed and, while it
remains quite large, continues to contract slowly as the inner
eyewall decays within. The initial intensity is held at 100 kt this
advisory, blending the subjective and objective intensity estimates
this evening. Another Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is
scheduled to investigate the storm overnight, and several saildrones
along Lee's path are also likely to provide additional in-situ
observations in the hurricane over the next day or so.

Lee continues to move slowly west-northwestward, with the motion
estimated at 295/6 kt. Lee is expected to continue moving slowly
west-northwest or northwest over the next 24-36 h while mid-level
ridging remains in place centered northwest of the hurricane.
However, the ridge should then become eroded and shift eastward as a
mid- to upper-level trough swings into the northeastern United
States. This pattern change should result in Lee turning northward
and gradually accelerating. The biggest spread in the track
guidance solutions remains in the along-track direction, with the
GFS on the faster end, and ECMWF on the slower end. The NHC track
forecast continues to favor a blend of the simple and corrected
consensus aids, and is very close to the previous forecast track
through 72 h, and is just a touch east of the prior track
thereafter. On this track, Lee is likely to pass near, but west of,
Bermuda late Thursday and Friday and then be situated offshore of
the mid-Atlantic states and New England late Friday and Saturday.

With the pending completion of Lee's ERC, expected over the next
6-12 hours, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show some modest
re-intensification. This seems reasonable given that sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) observed by a saildrone in Lee's south outer
eyewall are still around 29 C. After the next day or so, however,
coupled atmospheric-ocean models suggest the large wind field of Lee
will begin to upwell cooler SSTs, and Lee is still forecast to move
over a cool SST wake left behind by Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin
later this week. In addition, the approaching mid-latitude trough
should also result in an increase in shear, and dry air entrainment,
which should result in more steady weakening later this week and
over the weekend. This trough interaction will also ultimately lead
to Lee transitioning to an extratropical cyclone by the end of the
forecast period as it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream. The
NHC intensity forecast is a bit lower than the prior cycle after 72
h but remains close to the consensus intensity aids.

Although Lee is expected to weaken later in the week, it is still
expected to significantly increase in size and hazards will extend
well away from the storm center by the end of the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week.

2. Lee could bring strong winds, rainfall, and high surf impacts to
Bermuda later this week. Interests there should continue to monitor
updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee
might have along the Northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late
this week and this weekend. However, because wind and rainfall
hazards will likely extend well away from the center as Lee grows in
size, users should continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast
during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 23.9N 64.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 24.4N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 25.0N 66.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 26.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 27.5N 67.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 29.4N 67.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 31.6N 67.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 37.6N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 43.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 120248
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2023

...LEE IS A LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN
NORTHWARD LATER THIS WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM NNW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Lee.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 64.8 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by
a turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track, Lee is
expected to pass near, but to the west of Bermuda in a few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is forecast in the
next day or so, followed by gradual weakening.

Lee remains large with hurricane-force winds extending outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Saildrone 1064, located
about 40 miles south-southeast of Lee's center, reported a sustained
wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 105 mph (170 km/h) in
the last few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
Saildrone 1064 also reported a minimum pressure of 964 mb
(28.46 inches) in the last few hours.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to
affect portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions
are forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast
during the next day or two. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 120246
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 64.8W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT.......110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 300SW 345NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 64.8W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.4N 65.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 25.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.1N 67.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 67.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 65NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.4N 67.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N 67.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 180SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.6N 66.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 43.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 64.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 112044
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2023

Lee continues to exhibit a double eyewall structure as reported by
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and seen in recent microwave images.
The inner eyewall is open on the south side, but the outer eyewall
is completely closed and has contracted slightly from the earlier
NOAA P-3 aircraft mission. The minimum pressure is the same as
before, 948 mb, but the initial wind speed is nudged downward to 100
kt based on the aircraft data.

The major hurricane has jogged a little to the left recently, and
the initial motion is estimated to be 290/7 kt. The models are
similar to the previous runs, and no big changes were made to the
NHC track forecast. A continued slow motion between west-northwest
and northwest is expected during the next couple of days as Lee
remains steered by a mid-level high to its north-northeast. Beyond a
couple of days, the ridge is expected to shift eastward as a mid- to
upper-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. This pattern
change should cause Lee to turn northward with an increase in
forward speed. Lee is likely to pass near, but to the west of
Bermuda, late Thursday and Friday and then be situated offshore of
the mid-Atlantic states and New England late Friday and Saturday.

Given the current concentric eyewall structure, it seems likely that
Lee will fluctuate in strength in the short term. However, since
the hurricane will remain in generally conducive conditions during
the next couple of days, it could restrengthen if the eyewall cycle
completes. Lee is likely to move over a cool SST wake left behind
by Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin later this week, and cross over
the north wall of the Gulf Stream by the end of the forecast period.
The combination of cooler SSTs, an increase in shear, and dry air
entrainment should cause a steady decay in strength late this week
and over the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of
the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Although Lee is expected to weaken later in the week, it is expected
to significantly increase in size and hazards will extend well away
from the storm center by the end of the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week.

2. Lee could bring strong winds, rainfall, and high surf impacts to
Bermuda later this week. Interests there should continue to monitor
updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee
might have along the Northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late
this week and this weekend. However, wind and rainfall hazards will
likely extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size. Users
should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 23.6N 64.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 24.0N 65.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 24.6N 66.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 25.3N 66.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 26.5N 67.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 28.3N 67.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 30.3N 67.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 35.4N 67.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 40.8N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 112040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2023

...LEE REMAINS A SLOW MOVING MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 64.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Lee.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 64.2 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track,
Lee is expected to pass near, but to the west, of Bermuda in a few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). Saildrone 1064 located to the west of the Lee's
center in the last few hours reported a sustained wind of 70 mph
(113 km/h) and wind gust of 88 mph (142 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).
Saildrone 1064 located to the west of the Lee's center recently a
surface pressure of 974 mb (28.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to
affect portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions
are forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast
during the next day or two. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 112038
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 64.2W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 65NE 50SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 64.2W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 63.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.0N 65.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 50SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.6N 66.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.3N 66.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.3N 67.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.3N 67.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...230NE 210SE 180SW 190NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 35.4N 67.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 40.8N 67.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 64.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 111540
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT LEE REMAINS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Lee.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 63.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track,
Lee is expected to pass near, but to the west, of Bermuda in a few
days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast over the next
day or so, followed by gradual weakening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to
affect portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions
are forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast
during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 111440
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023

Lee has been holding steady in strength this morning. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Lee and found that the
minimum pressure was around 948 mb while a combination of the
measured flight-level and SFMR winds support holding the initial
intensity at 105 kt. The aircraft data have also shown a clear
indication of concentric eyewalls, which will likely cause
fluctuations, both up and down, in Lee's intensity over the next day
or two.

The major hurricane is moving slowly toward the northwest at about
7 kt. A continued slow motion between west-northwest and northwest
is expected during the next couple of days as Lee continues to be
steered by a mid-level high to its north-northeast. Around the
middle of the week, the ridge is expected to shift eastward as a
mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. This
pattern change should cause Lee to turn northward with an increase
in forward speed. The models have generally changed little this
cycle, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track
forecast. Lee is likely to pass near, but to the west of Bermuda,
late Thursday and Friday and be situated offshore of the
mid-Atlantic states and New England by the end of the forecast
period.

As mentioned above, fluctuations in strength are likely in the
short term due to eyewall replacement cycles, but there is an
opportunity for some strengthening during that time since the
system is expected to remain over very warm waters and in
relatively low wind shear conditions. Beyond a couple of days,
however, progressively cooler waters and a notable increase in
shear should cause Lee to gradually weaken. Although the weakening
is forecast later in the week, Lee is expected to significantly
increase in size and hazards will extend well away from the center
of the storm by the end of the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,
Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week.

2. Lee could bring strong winds, rainfall, and high surf impacts to
Bermuda later this week. Interests there should monitor the latest
forecasts.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee
might have along the Northeast U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late
this week and this weekend, however, wind and rainfall hazards will
likely extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size. Users
should continue to monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 23.5N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 23.9N 64.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 24.4N 65.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 24.9N 66.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 25.7N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 28.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 33.1N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 38.9N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 111434
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT LEE REMAINS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Lee.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 63.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track,
Lee is expected to pass near, but to the west, of Bermuda in a few
days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast over the next
day or so, followed by gradual weakening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to
affect portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions
are forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast
during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 111431
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC MON SEP 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 63.5W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 65NE 45SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 63.5W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 63.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.9N 64.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 50SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.4N 65.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.9N 66.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.7N 67.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 67.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.8N 68.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 33.1N 67.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 38.9N 67.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 63.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 110852
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023

The eye of the hurricane became more ragged and less distinct
overnight, but in recent satellite images there appears to be some
warming near the center once again. A 0619 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass
showed the eyewall was open to the south, but a new convective burst
is currently wrapping around the western portion of the eyewall. The
latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have
leveled off due to recent fluctuations in the structure of the
hurricane. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt, which is
consistent with the earlier aircraft data. This intensity also lies
between the latest subjective Dvorak data-T and current intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB that range from 90-115 kt.

Lee is moving slowly northwestward (310/6 kt) while being steered by
a mid-level ridge over the western and central subtropical Atlantic.
A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion should continue
for the next day or two before a deep-layer trough moves across the
eastern U.S. and begins eroding the steering ridge by midweek. This
should allow Lee to gradually turn northward by 72 h. The guidance
is in good agreement through midweek with little cross-track spread
noted, and the updated NHC forecast lies just a bit right of the
previous prediction. This takes the core of Lee to the west of
Bermuda, although its expanding tropical-storm-force wind field
could bring some impacts to the island during the latter part of the
week. On days 4-5, Lee should continue moving generally northward
with a ridge positioned to its east. For this portion of the
forecast, the NHC prediction was adjusted slightly west, keeping the
forecast track near the center of the guidance envelope and in best
agreement with the TVCA simple consensus aid.

In the near term, very warm SSTs of 29-30C and weaker deep-layer
shear appear conducive for at least modest strengthening of the
hurricane, although inner-core structural changes and bouts of dry
air entrainment could cause some short-term intensity fluctuations.
Most of the intensity models support an intensity peak within the
next day or so, and this is reflected in the latest NHC forecast.
Thereafter, the large wind field and slow motion of Lee could cause
upwelling of cooler waters. In addition, the hurricane is likely to
encounter increasing southwesterly shear from the aforementioned
trough later in the period, as well as the cool wake left behind by
recent western Atlantic hurricanes (Idalia and Franklin). All of
these factors point toward weakening later this week, and the NHC
forecast follows the IVCN and HCCA trends with gradual weakening
beyond 48 h. Although the peak winds are forecast to decrease, the
outer wind field is expected to expand as the hurricane interacts
with the upper trough and gains latitude over the western Atlantic,
with strong winds extending far from the center of the cyclone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and
Bermuda through much of the week.

2. Lee could bring wind, rainfall, and high surf impacts to
Bermuda later this week. Although it is too soon to determine the
specific timing and level of those impacts, interests on Bermuda
should monitor the latest forecasts for Lee.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any,
Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada late
this week, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow
down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast this week as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to
monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 23.1N 62.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 23.5N 63.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 24.0N 64.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 24.5N 65.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 25.1N 66.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 26.1N 67.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 31.8N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 37.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 110851
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2023

...LARGE LEE REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 62.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 62.6 West. Lee is moving toward
the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow west-northwestward
motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a
gradual turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track,
Lee is expected to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next
day or so, followed by gradual weakening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to
affect portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions
are forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast
during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 110850
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 62.6W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 65NE 45SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 62.6W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 62.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 50SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.0N 64.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.5N 65.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.1N 66.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.1N 67.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.8N 67.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 37.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 62.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 110252
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

There has been a wealth of data to dig though this evening for
Hurricane Lee. Observations from both satellite imagery and this
evening's NOAA-P3 mission indicate the hurricane has become more
symmetric in both its convective pattern and wind field. On
satellite, Lee has once again become more impressive with a warming
eye surrounded by cold -65 to -75C eyewall cloud tops. In response,
the subjective Dvorak estimates have been increasing, both T6.0/115
kt from TAFB and SAB. In addition, a single closed eyewall of 25 n
mi in diameter was reported by the NOAA aircraft, which has also
been observed by the TDR data and an earlier 2151 UTC SSMIS
microwave pass. The surface pressure has also been dropping, with
the most recent dropsonde in the eye reporting 950 mb. However, the
winds have yet to respond to the decreasing pressure, with peak
flight-level winds of 108 kt, SFMR at 103 kt, and surface reduced
TDR data also in the 100-105 kt range. All of the in-situ aircraft
data supports maintaining an initial intensity of 105 kt this
advisory. A Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass valid at 2213 UTC
also showed a 105-kt peak wind, but with expanding 64-kt wind radii,
which might explain why the winds have yet to respond to the
pressure drop.

Track-wise, Lee continues to move west-northwestward, at 305/6 kt.
This motion is expected to generally continue with a further
slowdown in the forward motion now that the mid-level ridging
influencing the storms steering has shifted more northwest in front
of the hurricane. However, this ridge is expected to then become
eroded by an approaching deep-layer trough, allowing Lee to turn
northward into the weakness produced by the trough. The track
guidance this cycle is in fairly good agreement over the next 5
days, with the largest details still related to the forward motion
of Lee after it turns northward. The NHC track forecast is pretty
much on top of the prior one, continuing to favor the consensus
aids, and is roughly in between the leftward GFS and rightward
ECMWF model solutions. Users should be reminded to not focus on the
exact forecast track, especially given Lee's forecast size at the
longer range, and the average day 4 and 5 track errors are about
145 and 200 miles, respectively.

Data from an earlier NOAA G-IV mission sampling the environment
around Lee indicated that the vertical wind shear that had been
affecting the hurricane has mostly subsided, with the dropsonde data
showing well-established outflow to the north, and a deep-layer of
cyclonic flow to the south associated with Lee's broad and deep
circulation. While it is difficult to predict the inner-core changes
associated with the cyclone, most of the intensity guidance still
suggests Lee will intensify further over the next day or so, with a
120-kt peak predicted in 24 hours. Afterwards, as Lee continues to
slow down, it may then begin to encounter its own cold wake due to
its expanding wind field, and the hurricane is expected to begin
gradually weakening. This weakening should be hastened by increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear after 72 h as the storm also
traverses already cooled sea-surface temperatures by Franklin and
Idalia last week. However, the model guidance also shows Lee's 34-kt
and 50-kt wind field continuing to expand through the forecast
period even as the hurricane gradually weakens.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and
Bermuda through much of this week.

2. Lee could bring wind, rainfall, and high surf impacts to
Bermuda later this week. Although it is too soon to determine the
specific timing and level of those impacts, interests on Bermuda
should monitor the latest forecasts for Lee.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any,
Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada late
this week, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow
down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast this week as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to
monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 22.6N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 23.1N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 23.6N 64.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 24.1N 65.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 24.6N 66.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 25.3N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 26.5N 67.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 30.2N 67.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 35.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 110247
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

...LEE GROWING LARGER BUT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOT YET
INCREASED...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 62.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 62.2 West. Lee is moving toward
the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower west-northwestward
motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
Lee is expected to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next day or two.

NOAA aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain
near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by
gradual weakening.

Lee has been growing in size, with hurricane-force winds now
extending outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 175 miles (280
km).

The minimum central pressure measured by NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to
reach portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are forecast to
worsen and spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast during
the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 110246
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 62.2W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 65NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT.......110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 62.2W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 61.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.1N 63.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 50SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.6N 64.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.1N 65.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 55SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.6N 66.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 65SE 55SW 65NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.3N 67.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.5N 67.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 67.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 62.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 102036
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

Lee has continued to become better organized today. The eye has
become more apparent in both infrared and visible satellite
imagery this afternoon, and reconnaissance aircraft reports
indicate that the eye has contracted today. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is currently investigating Lee has
measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 112 kt and SFMR winds of
106 kt. Near the conclusion of the earlier NOAA P-3 aircraft
mission an eyewall dropsonde measured mean boundary layer winds in
the lowest 150 m of the sonde of 117 kt, which supported surface
winds of around 100 kt. Based on the improved satellite
presentation and the recent SFMR wind report, Lee's initial
intensity has been raised to 105 kt.

As mentioned this morning, the vertical wind shear over Lee appears
to have decreased as the upper-level outflow has become better
established over the southern and southwestern portions of the
storm. Some further reduction in shear is anticipated during the
next day or so, and Lee is expected to restrengthen during that
time. The NHC intensity prediction calls for steady intensification
during the next 24 hours or so, and Lee is forecast regain category
4 status tonight or early Monday. After that time, the slow
motion of the hurricane could cause the water beneath the hurricane
to cool due to upwelling, which is likely to cause Lee's intensity
to plateau or weaken slight during the middle portion of the
forecast period. By days 4 and 5, increasing southwesterly shear
is likely to cause weakening, however Lee's wind field is expected
to expand by that time, and Lee is forecast to remain a strong
hurricane through most of this week.

Lee is moving west-northwestward or 300 at 7 kt. Lee's is expected
to move slowly northwestward during the next couple of days as its
forward progress is impeded by a high pressure ridge located to the
northwest of the storm. By Wednesday, a mid-latitude trough moving
across the Great Lakes region and into the northeastern United
States should weaken the ridge and allow Lee to turn northward. The
ECMWF model has trended faster with the northward progression of Lee
late in the period and there is a little less spread in the guidance
at day 5. The updated NHC track forecast is very similar the
previous track, but has trended a bit faster later in the period.
Users should be reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer range, as the average day 4 and 5 track
errors are about 145 and 200 miles, respectively.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and
Bermuda through much of this week.

2. Lee could bring wind, rainfall, and high surf impacts to
Bermuda later this week. Although it is too soon to determine the
specific timing and level of those impacts, interests on Bermuda
should monitor the latest forecasts for Lee.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any,
Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada late
this week, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow
down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast this week as Lee grows in size. Users should continue to
monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 22.1N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 22.7N 62.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 23.3N 63.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 23.8N 65.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 24.2N 66.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 24.7N 67.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 25.6N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 28.9N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 33.6N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 102035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LEE RESTRENGTHENING...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 61.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 61.7 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower west-northwestward
motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
Lee is expected to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next day or two.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195
km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening
is forecast during the next day or so. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible on Monday and Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun
to reach portions of the southeast U.S. East Coast and are forecast
to worsen and spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast
during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 102034
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 61.7W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 61.7W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 61.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 63.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.8N 65.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.2N 66.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.9N 68.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 33.6N 67.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 101444
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

Earlier SSMIS and GMI microwave overpasses along with reports from
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Lee has a larger
banded-type eye as compared to yesterday. The ragged eye has
become apparent in visible and infrared satellite images within
the past hour or so. The NOAA aircraft has measured a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 106 kt and SFMR winds of 95 kt, and the minimum
pressure has been oscillating in the 956-958 mb range during the
flight. Based on these data, and the recent improvement in
structure, the initial intensity has been raised to 95 kt.

The vertical wind shear over Lee appears to have relaxed some since
yesterday as there has been an expansion of the upper-level outflow
over the southern and southwestern portions of the storm. Most of
the guidance suggests that the shear will decrease more over the
next couple of days, allowing Lee to re-strengthen. The expected
slow motion of the hurricane could cause some upwelling, especially
in the 2-3 day time period when Lee is forecast to be moving at only
around 5 kt. The NHC wind speed forecast calls for steady
restrengthening during the next 24-48 hours, then shows some gradual
weakening after that time due to the potential for upwelling. Later
in the forecast period, increasing southwesterly shear is likely to
cause additional weakening, however Lee is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane through most of this week.

Recent aircraft center fixes show that the hurricane is beginning
to slow down. The initial motion is now west-northwest or 300
degrees at 7 kt. A high pressure ridge to the northwest of Lee is
forecast to build southwestward during the next couple of days,
further slowing Lee's progress. By midweek, a mid-latitude trough
moving into the northeastern United States is expected to weaken
the western extent of the ridge, allowing Lee to turn northward.
There is still significant uncertainty in the global model guidance
regarding the forward speed of Lee later in the forecast period.
The NHC track forecast continues to lie between the faster GFS and
slower ECMWF, close to the various consensus models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee's core is expected to pass well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the
next couple of days.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow
down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning later today and continuing through the week as
Lee grows in size. Users should continue to monitor updates to the
forecast of Lee during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 21.6N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 22.3N 62.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 23.0N 63.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 23.4N 64.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 23.8N 65.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 24.2N 66.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 24.7N 67.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 27.3N 67.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 31.3N 67.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 101443
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

...LEE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 61.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 61.0 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well north of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
during the next couple of days.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to
begin along much of the U.S. East Coast later today and worsen
through this week. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 101443
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 61.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 61.0W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 60.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.3N 62.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.0N 63.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.4N 64.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 66.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.7N 67.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.3N 67.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 31.3N 67.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 61.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 100843
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

Lee still seems to be feeling the effects of moderate southwesterly
wind shear, dry air, and internal structural changes. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported earlier that the eyewall
had deteriorated to only a few curved bands. Geostationary
satellite imagery and earlier dropsonde data suggested that some dry
air is wrapping around the eastern and northern portion of the
circulation. The aircraft found maximum surface winds of 86 kt, and
a minimum central pressure of 957 mb. The initial intensity is held
at a possibly generous 90 kt based on these data.

The hurricane is moving to the west-northwest at 8 kt on the
southern side of a mid-level high pressure system. The high is
expected to build west-southwestward over the next day or so, which
should slow Lee's forward speed. By mid-week, a mid-latitude trough
is forecast to weaken the ridge and gradually turn Lee northward.
Global models differ significantly in the forward speed of the
hurricane, especially by the end of the forecast period. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
generally favors the slower guidance, lying between the HCCA and
TCVN consensus aid.

A satellite analysis product from UW/CIMSS indicates that there is a
gradient of moderate-to-strong southwesterly shear over Lee. This
product suggests that the GFS, which is analyzing lower values of
shear, may not be accurately representing the environment near the
hurricane. Still, most of the model guidance predicts the shear
should relax, allowing Lee to strengthen in the next 36-48 h. The
latest intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the
previous advisory, now showing a peak intensity of 115 kt. Beyond
day 2, environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to become
less conducive and cause Lee to gradually weaken. The NHC track
forecast remains in the middle of guidance envelop, near the various
consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico early this
week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These
conditions are spreading westward and northward and will affect
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during
the next several days.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow
down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning soon and continuing through the week as Lee
grows in size. Users should continue to monitor updates to the
forecast of Lee during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 21.4N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 22.0N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 22.8N 62.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 23.3N 64.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 23.6N 65.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 23.9N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 24.5N 66.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 26.5N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 30.2N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 100838
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

...LEE SLOWING DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 60.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 60.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well north of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, followed by gradual weakening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on measurements from
the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is 958 mb (28.29
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, and are spreading westward to the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda over the remainder of this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin
along most of the U.S. East Coast tomorrow and worsen through next
week. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 100837
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 60.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 60.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 60.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.8N 62.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 64.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.6N 65.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.9N 66.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.5N 66.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 26.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 30.2N 68.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 60.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 100247
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

While the geostationary satellite appearance of Lee has not changed
appreciably since the prior advisory, data from a NOAA P-3
reconnaissance mission in the storm, in addition to earlier GPM and
SSMIS microwave imagery, indicate that Lee is in the middle of an
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The aircraft has been reporting
both an inner and outer eyewall, with the outer eyewall gradually
contracting in size. However, this outer eyewall continues to
exhibit some asymmetry, consistent with modest vertical wind shear
still affecting the storm. In addition, the aircraft has reported
that the inner-core wind field is becoming weaker, but broader, with
a more muted wind profile outside of the radius of maximum wind.
This observation is also evident comparing TDR data between the
morning and evening NOAA-P3 missions. The peak 700 mb flight level
winds were down to 94 kt, with SFMR only in the 75-85 kt range. The
initial intensity has been adjusted to a somewhat generous 90 kt for
this advisory.

Lee continues to move west-northwestward this evening at 300/9 kt.
As discussed previously, the mid-level ridge axis currently north of
Lee is soon expected to shift to its west-southwest, resulting in
Lee slowing its forward motion, and perhaps making a slight westward
bend over the next 24-36 hours. Afterwards, an eastward-moving
mid-latitude trough is expected to erode this ridge and allow Lee to
turn northward by the end of the forecast period. There remains a
significant amount of spread in both the deterministic and ensemble
guidance on when this turn occurs, and then how quickly Lee
accelerates northward. For now the NHC track forecast remains
closest to the consensus aids, which have slowed a bit from the
prior cycle, and the latest track forecast is a bit slower but near
the same trajectory as the prior advisory.

While vertical wind shear over Lee appears to be gradual decreasing
over the system, the ongoing ERC seems to be resulting in the wind
field broadening versus allowing Lee to re-intensify so far.
However, once this cycle is complete, reintensification is still
anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast still takes Lee back to
a category 4 hurricane in 36-48 hours, in good agreement with the
latest HAFS-A/B forecasts, which both explicitly show the ongoing
ERC. However, Lee's growing wind field, in combination with its
slowing forward motion, could make the hurricane susceptible to
feeling the effects of its own cold wake, which the
atmospheric-ocean coupled HAFS and HWRF models suggest could begin
to occur beyond 36 hours. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast
shows gradual weakening beginning by that time, with more pronounced
weakening by the end of the forecast period as the hurricane
traverses already cooled sea-surface temperatures from Franklin and
Idalia last week along its forecast track. This intensity forecast
is in good agreement with the simple consensus aids, but is a little
lower than the HFIP corrected consensus early on.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions are
spreading westward and northward and will affect Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during
the next several days.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow
down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning tomorrow and continuing into next week as Lee
grows in size. Users should continue to monitor updates to the
forecast of Lee during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 21.0N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 21.6N 60.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 22.4N 62.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 23.0N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 23.3N 64.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 23.6N 65.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 24.0N 66.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 25.6N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 28.8N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 100241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

...LEE EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 59.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 59.9 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower west-northwestward
motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
Lee is expected to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Restrengthening is anticipated over the next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 40144 located about 90 miles east-northeast of
the center of Lee reported a peak sustained wind of 52 mph (83
km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (98 km/h) within the past couple of
hours.

The minimum central pressure measured by the NOAA hurricane hunter
aircraft is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, and are spreading westward to the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda over the remainder of this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin
along most of the U.S. East Coast tomorrow and worsen through next
week. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 100238
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 59.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 59.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 59.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.6N 60.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.4N 62.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.3N 64.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.6N 65.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 66.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.6N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 28.8N 68.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 59.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 092036
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Lee's satellite presentation has changed little today. The center
is embedded within an area of cloud tops below -75C, and the Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that was in the storm earlier
this afternoon continued to report that Lee has a small eye.
However, the eye remains obscured in both visible and infrared
satellite imagery. A blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds, as
well as dropsonde data from the earlier mission, yields an intensity
of around 100 kt, and the advisory intensity remains that value.
Dropsonde data in the center just before 1700 UTC supported a
minimum pressure of 958 mb. A NOAA P-3 aircraft is scheduled to be
in the storm environment again this evening to provide additional
information on the structure and strength of the hurricane.

Shear analysis from UW/CIMSS indicates that there is still about
15-20 kt of southwesterly shear over Lee. The GFS continues to
suggest that the shear will lessen during the next couple of days,
creating a more favorable environment for Lee to strengthen.
However, the ECMWF and UKMET still favor the notion that the
upper-level wind pattern will not become quite as conducive for a
couple of more days. Most of the intensity guidance calls for
gradual restrengthening and the NHC forecast follows suit. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the consensus models, but not as
high as some of the dynamical model guidance and the HFIP corrected
consensus.

Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Lee is moving west-
northwestward at about 9 kt. There has been no change to the track
forecast philosophy. A mid-level ridge to the north of Lee is
foreast to shift west-southwestward during the next few days,
causing Lee's forward speed to slow considerably through early next
week. By midweek, a mid-latitude trough moving across the Great
Lakes region and into the eastern United States is expected to
weaken the ridge and allow Lee to turn north-northwestward and
northward on days 4 and 5. There is still a significant amount of
spread in the deterministic guidance and global model ensembles as
to exactly when and where the northward turn takes place. In fact,
the GFS and ECMWF models are about 275 n mi apart at day 5,
primarily due to along-track spread related to how fast Lee begins
moving northward. The NHC track forecast continues to lie near the
latest consensus aids, and the new track is very similar to the
previous forecast.

The center of Lee passed about 75 n mi south of NOAA buoy 41044 this
afternoon, and that buoy has reported peak 1-minute sustained winds
of 47 kt with a gust to 58 kt. That data along with a couple of
earlier scatterometer overpass have shown that the tropical-storm
force wind field has expanded outward over the eastern semicircle,
and that has been reflected in the latest analysis and forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions are
spreading westward and northward and will affect Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during
the next several days.

3. It remains too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow
down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Users should continue to
monitor updates to the forecast of Lee during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 20.7N 59.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 21.4N 60.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 22.1N 61.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 22.9N 62.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 23.3N 64.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 23.6N 65.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 23.9N 66.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 092035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

...LEE TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 59.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 59.1 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual restrengthening is possible during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 40144 located about 85 miles north-northeast of
the center of Lee has reported a peak sustained wind of 54 mph (86
km/h) with a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) within the past couple of
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, and are spreading westward to the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous
surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S.
East Coast on Sunday and Monday and worsen through the week. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 092035
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 59.1W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 59.1W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 58.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.4N 60.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.1N 61.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.9N 62.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 64.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.6N 65.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.9N 66.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 59.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2023

TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 125.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2023 0 22.0N 125.3W 990 43
0000UTC 10.09.2023 12 23.0N 126.8W 996 38
1200UTC 10.09.2023 24 24.0N 127.9W 1002 32
0000UTC 11.09.2023 36 24.5N 128.9W 1006 26
1200UTC 11.09.2023 48 24.6N 129.8W 1010 24
0000UTC 12.09.2023 60 24.2N 130.8W 1012 24
1200UTC 12.09.2023 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 37.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2023 0 20.2N 37.5W 1008 33
0000UTC 10.09.2023 12 21.1N 39.4W 1007 36
1200UTC 10.09.2023 24 22.3N 40.4W 1006 42
0000UTC 11.09.2023 36 23.9N 40.6W 1003 44
1200UTC 11.09.2023 48 24.6N 41.0W 998 43
0000UTC 12.09.2023 60 26.2N 41.0W 994 39
1200UTC 12.09.2023 72 28.1N 41.3W 987 46
0000UTC 13.09.2023 84 29.8N 41.7W 982 47
1200UTC 13.09.2023 96 31.7N 41.7W 982 47
0000UTC 14.09.2023 108 33.0N 42.0W 984 45
1200UTC 14.09.2023 120 33.6N 42.4W 988 46
0000UTC 15.09.2023 132 34.4N 42.0W 988 57
1200UTC 15.09.2023 144 35.3N 41.8W 988 48
0000UTC 16.09.2023 156 36.0N 42.4W 988 50
1200UTC 16.09.2023 168 36.4N 42.7W 991 52

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2023 0 19.8N 57.7W 955 79
0000UTC 10.09.2023 12 20.6N 58.9W 961 71
1200UTC 10.09.2023 24 21.4N 60.3W 957 80
0000UTC 11.09.2023 36 22.2N 61.4W 953 82
1200UTC 11.09.2023 48 22.8N 62.6W 953 84
0000UTC 12.09.2023 60 23.2N 64.0W 948 85
1200UTC 12.09.2023 72 23.5N 65.4W 949 90
0000UTC 13.09.2023 84 23.8N 66.3W 942 90
1200UTC 13.09.2023 96 24.1N 67.3W 953 74
0000UTC 14.09.2023 108 24.6N 67.5W 946 77
1200UTC 14.09.2023 120 25.8N 67.7W 952 76
0000UTC 15.09.2023 132 27.3N 67.3W 947 79
1200UTC 15.09.2023 144 28.8N 67.2W 944 81
0000UTC 16.09.2023 156 30.3N 66.7W 941 70
1200UTC 16.09.2023 168 32.2N 66.5W 949 68

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.3N 18.7E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2023 0 33.3N 18.7E 1002 31
0000UTC 10.09.2023 12 32.4N 19.7E 1001 39
1200UTC 10.09.2023 24 31.5N 21.3E 999 46
0000UTC 11.09.2023 36 30.1N 23.5E 999 36
1200UTC 11.09.2023 48 29.1N 26.5E 1001 32
0000UTC 12.09.2023 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 17.6N 41.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2023 144 17.6N 41.7W 1008 32
0000UTC 16.09.2023 156 19.1N 43.6W 1007 41
1200UTC 16.09.2023 168 20.7N 45.7W 1005 40


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091613

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.09.2023

TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 125.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2023 22.0N 125.3W MODERATE
00UTC 10.09.2023 23.0N 126.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2023 24.0N 127.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2023 24.5N 128.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2023 24.6N 129.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2023 24.2N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 37.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2023 20.2N 37.5W WEAK
00UTC 10.09.2023 21.1N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2023 22.3N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2023 23.9N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2023 24.6N 41.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2023 26.2N 41.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2023 28.1N 41.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2023 29.8N 41.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2023 31.7N 41.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2023 33.0N 42.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2023 33.6N 42.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2023 34.4N 42.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2023 35.3N 41.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2023 36.0N 42.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2023 36.4N 42.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2023 19.8N 57.7W INTENSE
00UTC 10.09.2023 20.6N 58.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2023 21.4N 60.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2023 22.2N 61.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2023 22.8N 62.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2023 23.2N 64.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2023 23.5N 65.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2023 23.8N 66.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2023 24.1N 67.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2023 24.6N 67.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2023 25.8N 67.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2023 27.3N 67.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2023 28.8N 67.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2023 30.3N 66.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2023 32.2N 66.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.3N 18.7E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2023 33.3N 18.7E WEAK
00UTC 10.09.2023 32.4N 19.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2023 31.5N 21.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2023 30.1N 23.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2023 29.1N 26.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 17.6N 41.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2023 17.6N 41.7W WEAK
00UTC 16.09.2023 19.1N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2023 20.7N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091613

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 091444
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Satellite imagery shows that deep convection continues to pulse
near the center of Lee. Recent reports from reconnaissance
aircraft and an earlier SSMIS microwave image indicates that Lee
has a small (5 to 10 n-mi-wide) eye that is obscured by the
higher convective cloud tops. The NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter
aircraft penetrated the eye around 1013 UTC this morning and found
that the pressure was down a few millibars. The NOAA aircraft
measured peak SFMR surface winds of 100 kt, and 700-mb flight-level
winds of 103 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
remains in the storm environment, but due to safety concerns was
not able to penetrate the northeastern eyewall on its first pass
through the storm due to very strong convection and mesovortices
orbiting the small eye. A recent center drop from the Air Force
plane suggest that the minimum pressure is around 957 mb. Drops
from both aircraft and Doppler radar data from the earlier NOAA
aircraft indicate that there is some southwest to northeast tilt
to the vortex. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity
remains 100 kt for this advisory.

There is still some question as to how conducive the upper-level
environment will be during the next few days. The GFS and regional
hurricane models indicate that the shear that has been affecting
Lee will decrease today, and that the upper-level wind pattern will
become much more favorable for restrengthening. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF and UKMET models depict a less favorable environment, with a
continuation of at least some moderate shear. The NHC forecast
follows the scenario that there will be at least some relaxation of
the shear and it calls for gradual restrengthening during the next
two to three days. The official wind speed forecast is not as high
as some of the dynamical model guidance, but is a blend of the HFIP
corrected consensus model and the IVCN multi-model consensus.

Lee is still moving west-northwestward or 300/10 kt. A mid-level
ridge located over the central Atlantic is forecast to build
west-southwestward during the next few days. This should keep Lee
on a general west-northwestward heading, but the building ridge is
expected to impede Lee's progress, and a much slower forward speed
is anticipated over the next several days. By Wednesday, Lee should
begin to turn northwestward, and then north-northwestward as a
mid-latitude trough moves into the Great Lakes region and eastern
United States. While the cross track spread in the guidance
remains fairly low, there is significant long track (forward speed)
spread in the models. The GFS and ECMWF depict similar overall
tracks, but the cross-track spread between those two typically
reliable models is more than 150 n mi by day 3. The NHC forecast
splits these speed differences and lies near the various consensus
aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions are
spreading westward and northward and will begin affecting Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
later today and Sunday.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Continue to monitor
updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 20.3N 58.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 21.0N 59.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 21.7N 60.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 22.4N 61.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 22.9N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 23.3N 64.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 23.6N 65.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 24.4N 67.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 26.8N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 091444
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LEE MAINTAINING ITS
STRENGTH...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 58.2W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 58.2 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through early next week with a significant
decrease in forward speed beginning later today and Sunday. On the
forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into
early next week.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today,
but gradual restrengthening is forecast to occur on Sunday and
Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, and are spreading westward to the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of
the U.S. East Coast Sunday and Monday and worsen through the week.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 091444
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 58.2W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 210SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 58.2W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 57.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 59.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.7N 60.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.4N 61.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.9N 63.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.3N 64.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.6N 65.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.4N 67.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 26.8N 67.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 58.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090845
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Lee seems to be recovering from the effects of the strong
southwesterly shear. The central dense overcast has expanded, with
periodic bursts of deep convection and increased lightning activity
near the center. The most recent geostationary satellite infrared
images even seem to be hinting a return of Lee's eye. Overnight,
there were multiple reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft of mesovorticies orbiting the closed,
elliptical eyewall. Due to safety considerations, the aircraft were
unable, at times, to penetrate the eyewall and thus, we have no new
in-situ information about the intensity or minimum central
pressure. The initial intensity is held at a somewhat uncertain
100 kt and NOAA and Air Force Reserve missions are scheduled to
investigate Lee later this morning.

Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low. Global models
suggest that Lee could be affected by strong-to-moderate
southwesterly shear for at least the next day, though the European
global model shows strong upper-level winds near the hurricane for
the entire forecast period. The statistical and consensus intensity
aids predict Lee could briefly weaken in the short-term, before
restrengthening in about 12-24 hours. Only minor adjustments have
been made to the latest NHC intensity forecast, which generally lies
between the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids.
Regardless of the details, it is likely that Lee will continue to be
a dangerous hurricane through the entire forecast period.

Lee is moving west-northwestward at 295/10 kt. The hurricane is
situated to the south of a mid-level ridge that is predicted to
build westward and southwestward during the next few days. This
steering pattern is expected to keep Lee on a west-northwestward
trajectory with a slower forward speed. By next Wednesday, the
hurricane should gradually turn to the northwest and
north-northwest in the flow between a trough over the eastern
United States and the southwestern edge of the ridge. While the
model guidance is in good agreement about the general synoptic
setup, there remain differences in how far west Lee will move
before it makes the turn. The latest NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous predictions and lies just to the south of
the various track consensus aids.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the weekend.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Continue to monitor
updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 19.7N 57.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.4N 58.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 21.8N 61.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 22.8N 63.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 23.2N 64.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 23.9N 66.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 25.7N 67.8W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

...LEE MAINTAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 57.4W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 57.4 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through early next week with a significant
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected
to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the
next few days, however Lee is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, and will spread westward to the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda through this weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin along most of
the U.S. East Coast Sunday and Monday and worsen through the week.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090843
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 57.4W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 210SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 57.4W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.4N 58.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.8N 61.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.8N 63.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.2N 64.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.9N 66.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.7N 67.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 57.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090240
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

Strong southwesterly shear has taken a toll on Lee's structure.
The crews of ongoing NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
missions reported that the hurricane's eyewall has opened up, and
the satellite presentation has degraded significantly since earlier
today. Both planes have found the minimum pressure rising during
their missions, with the latest measurements being around 963 mb.
Based on this pressure and the planes' wind measurements, Lee's
initial intensity is set at 100 kt.

Moderate-to-strong deep-layer southwesterly shear is expected to
continue for at least the next 24 hours, if not longer. The GFS
model is the quickest to show the shear abating, but the ECMWF
now maintains shear over Lee for much of the forecast period. Most
of the intensity guidance shows Lee weakening further during the
next 12-24 hours while the shear is at its strongest, and that is
shown in the new NHC forecast. Despite the uncertainty in how
the upper-level pattern, and hence the shear profile, will evolve
around Lee, it is assumed that the atmospheric environment will
become at least a little more conducive for restrengthening after
24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast blends the latest IVCN
and HCCA consensus models with the previous official forecast,
particularly after 48 hours. Confidence in the intensity forecast
is low at the moment, although it is likely that Lee will remain a
dangerous hurricane for at least the next 5 days.

Lee's heading and speed remain 300 degrees at 11 kt. The
mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the hurricane is forecast to
build to the west and southwest during the next few days, which
will keep Lee on a west-northwestward course with a decrease in
speed through next Tuesday. By Wednesday, a deep-layer trough is
forecast to amplify over the eastern United States, erode the
ridge, and cause Lee to gradually turn toward the northwest.
Although the track models agree on this general scenario, there is
disagreement on how far west Lee will get before it makes the turn.
To account for the latest suite of models, the NHC track forecast
has been shifted slightly westward on days 3 through 5, close to
the consensus aids but not as far west as the ECMWF, UKMET, and the
GEFS ensemble mean.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the weekend.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Continue to monitor
updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 19.3N 56.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 20.0N 57.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 20.8N 59.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 22.0N 62.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 22.5N 63.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 22.8N 64.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 23.5N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 25.3N 67.7W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090239
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LEE NOT AS
STRONG BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 56.5W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 56.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through early next week with a significant
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected
to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early
next week.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115
mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity
are likely over the next few days, however Lee is expected to remain
a powerful hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser
Antilles, and will reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and
Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf
and rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East
Coast Sunday and Monday and worsen through the week. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090239
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 56.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 56.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 56.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.0N 57.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.8N 59.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.5N 63.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.8N 64.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 23.5N 66.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.3N 67.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 56.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 082040
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

The small eye of Lee has become cloud filled this afternoon.
A 1643 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass and the earlier reconnaissance
aircraft reports indicate that Lee's eye was a little less than
10 n mi in diameter. The microwave imagery revealed a well-defined
inner core but there was a lack of banding noted just outside the
core. This is likely due to some drier mid-level air that has
wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft did not find any stronger flight-level or SFMR winds
after the release of the previous advisory, and the initial
intensity for this advisory has been set at 130 kt. This is a blend
of the earlier reconnaissance data and subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates of T6.5 or 127 kt from TAFB and SAB. NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee again this
evening.

The moderate shear and dry mid-level air that has affected Lee
today is not expected to abate during the next 12-24 hours. After
that time, the upper-level wind pattern could become a little more
conducive for re-strengthening. However, the timing of eyewall
replacement cycles makes it difficult to predict when Lee might
re-intensify. Although there is lower-than-normal confidence in
the exact details of the intensity forecast, there is high
confidence that Lee will remain a powerful hurricane into early next
week. The latest NHC wind speed forecast is a blend of the HFIP
corrected consensus model and the multi-model intensity consensus
aids.

Lee continues to move west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 11 kt.
A well-established mid- to upper-level ridge over the central
Atlantic should continue to steer the hurricane west-northward into
early next week. The ridge is forecast to build southwestward near
Bermuda late this weekend and early next week which is expected
cause Lee's forward speed to slow around 5-7 kt between days 2-4.
Late in the period, a mid-latitude trough that will be moving into
the Great Lakes Region is forecast to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, and Lee should begin to turn more poleward around that
time. The track guidance is still in good agreement through about
72 hours, but there is slightly more spread at days 4 and 5.
The spread is primarily related to speed differences in the guidance
during the latter portion of the forecast period. The latest NHC
track prediction is again close to the HCCA and TCVA consensus
aids, and it is very similar to the previous official forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting
portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the weekend.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday. Continue to monitor
updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 18.9N 55.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.7N 56.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 20.6N 58.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 22.5N 62.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 23.0N 63.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 23.7N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.6W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 082040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

...CORE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE LEE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 55.5W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 55.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through early next week with a significant
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected
to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
over the next few days, however Lee is expected to remain a
powerful major hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles, and will reach the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and
rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast
beginning Sunday and Monday. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 082039
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 55.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 55.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 55.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 56.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.6N 58.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 63.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 66.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 67.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 55.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 081454
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

The satellite presentation of Lee degraded somewhat this morning.
The small eye has become cloud filled and the overall cloud pattern
has become more asymmetric. There has been no indication of
concentric eyewalls so far, and the recent filling appears to be the
result of some moderate (15-20 kt) southwesterly shear as diagnosed
by a shear analysis from UW/CIMSS. Within the past hour or so, the
small eye has once again become a little better defined. Both NOAA
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been in the
storm this morning. The NOAA aircraft has measured a peak 8000 ft
flight-level wind of 143 kt, and the Air Force plane has found peak
700-mb flight level winds of 132 kt. SFMR surface estimates have
peaked in the 130-143 kt range. The pressure has risen to around
942 mb. Using a blend of these data the initial intensity is set at
135 kt. Fluctuations in intensity like what has occurred this
morning are not uncommon in intense hurricanes. Although Lee's
current intensity is lower than the overnight peak, the hurricane
remains very powerful.

The latest global model guidance suggests that the moderate shear
over the hurricane is likely to continue during the next day or
so. This along with potential eye wall replacement cycles are likely
to result in additional fluctuations in intensity during that
time, which are very difficult to time and predict. By later this
weekend, the upper-level wind pattern could become a little more
conducive and some restrengthening is possible. Regardless of exact
details of the intensity forecast, confidence is high that Lee will
remain a powerful hurricane during the next several days.

Lee has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. The
hurricane should continued to be steered west-northwestward to the
south of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The
western extent of the ridge is forecast to weaken by early next
week, and Lee's forward speed is expected to slow considerably
around days 3-5. The track guidance continues to be tightly
clustered during the forecast period, and the NHC track is near
the middle of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the northern Leeward Islands beginning today. These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the weekend.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's
forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 18.2N 54.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 19.0N 56.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 20.0N 57.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 20.8N 59.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 22.7N 63.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.5N 65.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 24.8N 67.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 081453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

...LEE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 54.5W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 54.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through early next week with a significant
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected
to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lee is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
over the next few days, however Lee is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles later today, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and
rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast
beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 081453
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 54.5W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 54.5W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 54.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.0N 56.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.0N 57.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.8N 59.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.7N 63.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.8N 67.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 54.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080839
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

Lee remains an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane. Satellite
images indicate that Lee has a symmetric inner core with a 10 n mi
circular and clear eye and no indications of concentric eyewalls
forming yet. Although the hurricane is incredibly powerful, its
wind field is not particularly large with its tropical-storm-force
winds extending roughly 100 n mi from the center. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters investigated Lee earlier this morning and found
that the pressure has fallen to about 926 mb, based on dropsonde
data. In addition, the maximum 700-mb flight-level wind reported
was 153 kt and maximum surface SFMR wind was 158 kt, but this
estimate could be inflated. Blending these measurements, the
initial wind speed is nudged upward to 145 kt. Both the NOAA and
Air Force Hurricane Hunters will further investigate Lee in a couple
of hours.

Since Lee is expected to remain in favorable atmospheric conditions
while moving over even warmer waters during the next couple of days,
it seems likely that the hurricane will at least maintain its
intensity or become a little stronger during that time. The
dominant factor for Lee's short term intensity will be internal
dynamics, like eyewall replacement cycles. These conditions will
often cause fluctuations in the hurricane's strength, which are
challenging to forecast. There likely will be some weakening beyond
a few days when Lee moves over somewhat cooler waters and into an
environment of slightly higher shear. Regardless of the details,
Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
several days.

The major hurricane has been on a steady west-northwest path during
the past couple of days as it has been steered by the flow on the
south side of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A
continued west-northwest motion is expected, but at a progressively
slower pace during the forecast period as the ridge to the north of
the system weakens. The models are in fairly good agreement, and
little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.

Lee is expected to increase in size and become more symmetric over
the weekend and early next week as the hurricane slows down. Recent
wave altimeter data showed peak significant wave heights between 45
and 50 feet near the center. Dangerously high seas are expected to
continue near the core of the hurricane, and large swells will
spread well away from the system through the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further
strengthening is possible. Lee's core is expected to move well
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the northern Leeward Islands beginning later today. These
conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the weekend.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's
forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 17.8N 53.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.6N 55.1W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.6N 57.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.5N 58.8W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 23.3N 65.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 24.4N 67.1W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080838
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

...POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LEE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 53.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 53.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through early next week with a significant
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected
to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds based on data from the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased to near 165 mph (270
km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast today. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next
few days, but Lee is expected to remain a major hurricane through
early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles later today, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and
rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast
beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080837
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 53.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 53.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 53.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.6N 55.1W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.6N 57.1W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 58.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 65.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 24.4N 67.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 53.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080252
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found that Lee has
skyrocketed to category 5 strength. The aircraft measured peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 148 kt and trustworthy SFMR winds
slightly over 140 kt, and dropsonde data shows that the minimum
pressure has plummeted to 928 mb. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 140 kt, and Lee's maximum winds have increased
by an incredible 70 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane has a
clear 15 n mi-wide eye, with an infrared eye temperature as warm
as 21 C surrounded by convective cloud tops as cold as -76 C.

Additional strengthening appears likely, as Lee remains in a
low-shear environment and over very warm waters near 30 degrees
Celsius, and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology. There is some chance that moderate deep-layer
southwesterly shear could develop over the hurricane, but this
could be offset by strong upper-level divergence and thus have
little to no impact. To account for the recent rate of
intensification, the NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids and shows a peak intensity of 155 kt in
12 hours. Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak
intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.
The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions
begin looking like a more distinct possibility. Only very gradual
weakening is shown after 12-24 hours, and it is likely that Lee's
intensity will fluctuate for much of the forecast period. Lee is
forecast to remain a dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane for the
next 5 days.

For the next 5 days--through next Tuesday evening--Lee is expected
to maintain a steady west-northwestward track, passing well to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico. The hurricane is currently moving at about 12 kt, but
it is expected to slow down considerably through early next week as
the steering ridge to its north builds southwestward, effectively
blocking Lee's progress. The NHC track forecast remains of high
confidence through day 5, and again, no significant changes were
required from the previous forecast. Although there are some
indications that Lee might begin a northward turn around the middle
of next week, it is still way to soon to focus on specific model
scenarios that far out into the future.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee has become a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further
strengthening is forecast overnight. Lee's core is expected to move
well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through
the weekend.

3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's
forecast during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 17.3N 52.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.0W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.2N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 24.1N 66.6W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 52.4 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through early next week with a significant
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected
to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early
next week.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast overnight. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the
next few days, but Lee is expected to remain a major hurricane
through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 928 mb
(27.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and
rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast
beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080251
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 52.4W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 52.4W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 51.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.1W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.0W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 60.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.1N 62.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.2N 64.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 66.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 52.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 072101
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 10...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

Lee continues to strengthen at an exceptional rate. The hurricane
has quickly developed a clear symmetric eye surrounded by very cold
cloud tops. The intensity estimate of 115 kt is based primarily on
recent UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimates near that value. The 102 kt
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 18Z were
constrained by Dvorak rules, but both analyses noted that the Data-T
was higher. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Lee starting at 2330 UTC tonight, which
should provide much-needed in-situ data to better evaluate the
hurricane's intensity.

Low shear, very warm SSTs and copious moisture should allow Lee to
continue to rapidly strengthen at least tonight. All 4 regional
hurricane models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON) forecast that Lee
will become a category 5 hurricane at some point in the next day or
so. In addition, the short-term rapid intensification probabilities
from SHIPS and DTOPS are still very high. Internal factors like
eyewall replacement cycles will become a factor soon, and these are
not easily predictable well in advance, but we don't yet see an
indication that Lee's intensification is stopping yet. The official
intensity forecast is quite close to the intensity consensus after
24 h, reflecting just how high several of the model forecasts are.

Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.

The biggest risk from Lee during the next 5 days will be high seas
and dangerous surf. Rip currents are likely to begin affecting
portions of the northern Caribbean on Friday. These conditions will
spread westward through the weekend, reaching most of the U.S. East
Coast by Sunday evening. For more information, please consult
products from your local weather office.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee has become a major hurricane, and further strengthening is
expected, with its core moving north of the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early
next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will
spread westward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks
and Caicos, and the Bahamas through the weekend.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the
U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.9N 51.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 17.6N 53.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 55.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.7N 57.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 22.0N 61.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.1N 64.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 072052
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

Lee continues to strengthen at an exceptional rate. The hurricane
has quickly developed a clear symmetric eye surrounded by very cold
cloud tops. The intensity estimate of 115 kt is based primarily on
recent UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimates near that value. The 102 kt
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 18Z were
constrained by Dvorak rules, but both analyses noted that the Data-T
was higher. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Lee starting at 2330 UTC tonight, which
should provide much-needed in-situ data to better evaluate the
hurricane's intensity.

Low shear, very warm SSTs and copious moisture should allow Lee to
continue to rapidly strengthen at least tonight. All 4 regional
hurricane models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON) forecast that Lee
will become a category 5 hurricane at some point in the next day or
so. In addition, the short-term rapid intensification probabilities
from SHIPS and DTOPS are still very high. Internal factors like
eyewall replacement cycles will become a factor soon, and these are
not easily predictable well in advance, but we don't yet see an
indication that Lee's intensification is stopping yet. The official
intensity forecast is quite close to the intensity consensus after
24 h, reflecting just how high several of the model forecasts are.

Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands.
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.

The biggest risk from Lee during the next 5 days will be high seas
and dangerous surf. Rip currents are likely to begin affecting
portions of the northern Caribbean on Friday. These conditions will
spread westward through the weekend, reaching most of the U.S. East
Coast by Sunday evening. For more information, please consult
products from your local weather office.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee has become a major hurricane, and further strengthening is
expected, with its core moving north of the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early
next week.

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will
spread westward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks
and Caicos, and the Bahamas through the weekend.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the
U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.9N 51.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 17.6N 53.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 55.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.7N 57.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 22.0N 61.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.1N 64.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 66.4W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 072051
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS SURF WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE MAINLAND U.S. BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 51.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Lee.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the clear eye of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 51.3 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The hurricane will
continue moving in this direction for the next several days while
gradually slowing down its forward speed. On the forecast track,
the core of Lee will move north of the northern Leeward Islands
during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
expected tonight. Fluctuations in intensity are expected after
that, but Lee is forecast to remain a powerful major hurricane
well into next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected
to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 072051
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 51.3W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 51.3W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 50.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.6N 53.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 55.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 57.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 61.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.1N 64.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 66.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 51.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 071459
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

Lee is rapidly intensifying. Early this morning, a well-defined
low-to mid-level eye was observed in microwave imagery, a signal
that is often a precursor rapid intensification (RI). Since then,
Lee has developed an eye in visible and infrared imagery, with
subjective Dvorak Data-T estimates quickly increasing to as high as
5.5 during the past hour or so. Satellite classifications supported
an intensity of around 80 kt at 1200 UTC, but given the significant
improvement in Lee's appearance since then, the advisory intensity
is set at 90 kt.

The track guidance remains in very good agreement on the forecast
for Lee through the weekend and confidence in the track forecast is
high. Lee should continue west-northwestward, gradually slowing its
forward speed, moving along the southern periphery of a subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. Confidence continues to increase
that Lee will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, though
swells associated with Lee will affect the islands starting
tomorrow. By the end of the forecast, the uncertainty is a little
higher, with the hurricane models (HAFS, HWRF) generally being
farther south than the global models. Very small changes were made
to the NHC track forecast, which is between the HCCA and simple
consensus aids.

As stated above, RI is occuring, and will likely continue today. The
question doesn't appear to be if RI continues, but rather how
strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there. Many of the
models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond
rates normally seen with model forecasts. Both HAFS models forecast
Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings
the hurricane above the category 5 threshold. The NHC intensity
forecast has been shifted significantly higher, but is actually
within the guidance envelope. It should be stressed that internal
dynamics (eyewall replacement cycles) will become a factor with the
maximum strength of Lee as it becomes a major hurricane. This
is almost certain to lead to fluctuations in intensity that are
beyond our ability to forecast at these lead times. Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee beginning this evening and
overnight, which should provide extremely useful information about
Lee's intensity during the coming days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane later today, with
its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. The
potential for tropical storm conditions to occur in the islands is
decreasing, but residents there should continue to monitor updates
on Lee.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.4N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.1N 51.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 18.2N 54.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 19.2N 56.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 61.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 22.6N 63.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.6N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 071458
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...LARGE SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 50.0W
ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Lee.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 50.0 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A slower motion toward the
west-northwest is forecast over the weekend. On the forecast track,
the core of Lee will move north of the northern Leeward islands
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained have quickly increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected today and
tonight. Lee will likely become a major hurricane later today. Lee
is forecast to remain a very strong major hurricane through the
weekend

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 071457
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 50.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 50.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 49.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.1N 51.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 54.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.2N 56.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 61.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 22.6N 63.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.6N 66.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 070834
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

Lee had been steady state overnight, but there are some signs that
intensification is beginning to resume. Satellite images show
evidence of an eye feature appearing within the central dense
overcast and fragmented bands that are now filling in around the
center. In addition, a better defined inner core seems to be
taking shape. The initial wind speed of 70 kt is at the high end
of the satellite estimates, but if these trends continue, the
intensity of the hurricane could increase quickly.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 300/12 kt. The
hurricane has taken a slight jog to the north during the last few
hours. The steering pattern for Lee is straightforward. A
subtropical ridge situated to the north of the hurricane should
steer the system west-northwestward during the next several days,
but the forward speed will likely slow down late in the weekend and
early next week. The models have changed little this cycle, and
there is increasing confidence that the core of Lee will pass to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands. However, interests in those
islands should continue to monitor Lee's forecasts as the typical
three-day NHC track error is about 90 n mi, and the northernmost
Leeward Islands currently have a 1-in-4 chance of experiencing
sustained tropical-storm-force winds on the southern side of the
storm.

The environment around the cyclone looks ideal for rapid
intensification. The models are in fairly good agreement that
significant strengthening should begin later today and continue into
the weekend, when Lee will likely reach its peak intensity.
Fluctuations in strength are likely from days 3 to 5 due to
potential eyewall replacements, but Lee is still expected to be a
dangerous hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic early next week.
The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance in the
short term given recent trends, but falls to near the middle of the
guidance envelope from 36 to 120 h.

As Lee slowly gains latitude and becomes significantly stronger,
its wind field is forecast to expand. This is expected to result
in a large area of high seas extending well away from the core of
the system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Friday, with
its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend into early next week. There is
the potential for tropical storm conditions to occur on some of
these islands over the weekend, and interests there should monitor
future updates to Lee's forecast.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.1N 48.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 16.8N 50.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 17.8N 52.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 18.8N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 19.8N 57.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 22.5N 63.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 23.5N 65.9W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 070832
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...LARGE SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 48.6W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Lee.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 48.6 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through Friday. A slower motion toward the
west-northwest is forecast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid intensification is expected to begin later today,
and Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 070831
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC THU SEP 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 48.6W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 48.6W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 48.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.8N 50.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 52.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 55.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.8N 57.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.3N 60.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 63.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 23.5N 65.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 48.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 070413

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.09.2023

HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 112.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2023 0 15.2N 112.8W 960 81
1200UTC 07.09.2023 12 16.6N 115.5W 951 81
0000UTC 08.09.2023 24 17.8N 118.6W 950 81
1200UTC 08.09.2023 36 19.2N 121.6W 962 67
0000UTC 09.09.2023 48 20.8N 124.5W 975 56
1200UTC 09.09.2023 60 22.2N 126.8W 987 48
0000UTC 10.09.2023 72 23.6N 128.4W 995 40
1200UTC 10.09.2023 84 24.7N 129.6W 1002 32
0000UTC 11.09.2023 96 25.3N 130.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 11.09.2023 108 25.3N 132.4W 1011 25
0000UTC 12.09.2023 120 25.0N 133.9W 1013 25
1200UTC 12.09.2023 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 22.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2023 0 14.5N 22.5W 1010 20
1200UTC 07.09.2023 12 14.8N 25.6W 1010 27
0000UTC 08.09.2023 24 15.7N 28.5W 1009 28
1200UTC 08.09.2023 36 16.7N 32.6W 1009 29
0000UTC 09.09.2023 48 17.0N 35.4W 1009 28
1200UTC 09.09.2023 60 18.3N 38.9W 1009 30
0000UTC 10.09.2023 72 19.2N 40.8W 1009 30
1200UTC 10.09.2023 84 20.3N 42.8W 1008 31
0000UTC 11.09.2023 96 21.8N 43.3W 1008 35
1200UTC 11.09.2023 108 23.6N 43.6W 1004 40
0000UTC 12.09.2023 120 25.6N 43.1W 1000 45
1200UTC 12.09.2023 132 27.2N 42.7W 998 46
0000UTC 13.09.2023 144 28.5N 42.9W 994 50
1200UTC 13.09.2023 156 29.7N 43.6W 987 45
0000UTC 14.09.2023 168 30.8N 43.9W 986 45

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 47.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2023 0 15.0N 47.0W 998 52
1200UTC 07.09.2023 12 15.9N 49.4W 994 48
0000UTC 08.09.2023 24 16.7N 51.8W 993 50
1200UTC 08.09.2023 36 17.5N 54.2W 993 56
0000UTC 09.09.2023 48 18.3N 56.3W 993 59
1200UTC 09.09.2023 60 19.2N 58.4W 994 57
0000UTC 10.09.2023 72 20.0N 60.0W 991 54
1200UTC 10.09.2023 84 20.9N 61.7W 989 57
0000UTC 11.09.2023 96 21.6N 63.0W 985 53
1200UTC 11.09.2023 108 22.3N 64.7W 979 51
0000UTC 12.09.2023 120 23.1N 66.1W 975 59
1200UTC 12.09.2023 132 23.6N 67.5W 973 63
0000UTC 13.09.2023 144 24.2N 68.6W 963 73
1200UTC 13.09.2023 156 24.8N 69.2W 957 84
0000UTC 14.09.2023 168 26.3N 69.9W 951 82

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 26.0N 31.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2023 0 26.0N 31.9W 1013 22
1200UTC 07.09.2023 12 24.8N 32.7W 1015 22
0000UTC 08.09.2023 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.2N 17.3E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2023 0 34.2N 17.3E 1005 27
1200UTC 07.09.2023 12 34.2N 18.8E 1005 33
0000UTC 08.09.2023 24 34.9N 18.3E 1005 35
1200UTC 08.09.2023 36 34.1N 17.4E 1005 33
0000UTC 09.09.2023 48 33.6N 17.4E 1004 34
1200UTC 09.09.2023 60 32.7N 17.6E 1005 34
0000UTC 10.09.2023 72 31.8N 18.9E 1004 33
1200UTC 10.09.2023 84 30.4N 20.2E 1003 32
0000UTC 11.09.2023 96 29.4N 21.3E 1003 28
1200UTC 11.09.2023 108 28.6N 22.9E 1004 29
0000UTC 12.09.2023 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.6N 27.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2023 84 13.8N 28.3W 1013 25
0000UTC 11.09.2023 96 14.4N 30.4W 1014 23
1200UTC 11.09.2023 108 15.1N 33.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 12.09.2023 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.7N 3.0E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2023 168 36.7N 3.0E 1013 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070413

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 070413

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.09.2023

HURRICANE JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 112.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2023 15.2N 112.8W INTENSE
12UTC 07.09.2023 16.6N 115.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2023 17.8N 118.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2023 19.2N 121.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2023 20.8N 124.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2023 22.2N 126.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2023 23.6N 128.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2023 24.7N 129.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2023 25.3N 130.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2023 25.3N 132.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2023 25.0N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 22.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2023 14.5N 22.5W WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2023 14.8N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2023 15.7N 28.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2023 16.7N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2023 17.0N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2023 18.3N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2023 19.2N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2023 20.3N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2023 21.8N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2023 23.6N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2023 25.6N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2023 27.2N 42.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2023 28.5N 42.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2023 29.7N 43.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2023 30.8N 43.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 47.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2023 15.0N 47.0W MODERATE
12UTC 07.09.2023 15.9N 49.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2023 16.7N 51.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2023 17.5N 54.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2023 18.3N 56.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2023 19.2N 58.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2023 20.0N 60.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2023 20.9N 61.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2023 21.6N 63.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2023 22.3N 64.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2023 23.1N 66.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2023 23.6N 67.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2023 24.2N 68.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2023 24.8N 69.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2023 26.3N 69.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.2N 17.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2023 34.2N 17.3E WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2023 34.2N 18.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2023 34.9N 18.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2023 34.1N 17.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2023 33.6N 17.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2023 32.7N 17.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2023 31.8N 18.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2023 30.4N 20.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2023 29.4N 21.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2023 28.6N 22.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.6N 27.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.09.2023 13.8N 28.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2023 14.4N 30.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2023 15.1N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 36.7N 3.0E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2023 36.7N 3.0E WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070413

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 070245
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

Lee has an asymmetric structure this evening, with the bulk of the
convective activity located to the east of the center. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB were a pair of T4.0s/65 kt, but
objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little higher.
Therefore, Lee's initial intensity is set at 70 kt.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt, with
Lee situated to the south of the subtropical ridge. Ridging is
expected to build westward, and even out ahead of the hurricane
over the southwestern Atlantic, during the next 5 days. As a
result, Lee is likely to maintain a west-northwestward trajectory
but gradually slow down beyond day 2, with its forward speed
decreasing to about 7 kt by day 5. The new NHC track forecast
is right on top of the previous prediction during the first
3 days of the forecast. After that, the official forecast has been
nudged westward, leaning toward the latest TVCX and HCCA consensus
aids. The track model envelope continues to indicate that the
core of Lee will pass to the north of the northern Leeward
Islands. However, interests in those islands should continue to
monitor Lee's forecasts as the typical three-day NHC track error is
about 90 n mi, and the northernmost Leeward Islands currently have
a 1-in-4 chance of experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force
winds on the southern side of the storm.

Global model fields show a well-defined upper-level anticyclone
developing over Lee during the next 24 hours and persisting over
the hurricane into the weekend, which should keep the deep-layer
shear quite low. In addition, oceanic heat content values will
double along Lee's track during the next 3 days. As a result,
rapid intensification (RI) is forecast to begin on Thursday, and
following the previous forecast, a 65-kt increase in strength is
predicted during the next 3 days, bringing Lee to high-end category
4 intensity. This forecast lies close to the HAFS dynamical model
and HCCA consensus aid solutions, and it is also supported by very
high RI probabilities from the DTOPS scheme for the 36-, 48-, and
72-hour forecast periods. Fluctuations in intensity are likely by
days 4 and 5 due to potential eyewall replacements, but Lee is
still expected to be a large and dangerous hurricane over the
southwestern Atlantic early next week.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Friday,
with its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend into early next week.
There is the potential for tropical storm conditions to occur on
some of these islands over the weekend, and interests there should
monitor future updates to Lee's forecast.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.4N 47.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.1N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.0N 51.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 20.8N 60.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 22.0N 63.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 23.0N 66.1W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 070244
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY...
...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 47.7W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Lee.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 47.7 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A slower motion toward the
west-northwest is expected over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and rapid
intensification is expected to begin on Thursday. Lee could become
a major hurricane by early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 070243
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC THU SEP 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 47.7W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 47.7W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 47.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.1N 49.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.0N 51.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.1N 56.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.8N 60.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 22.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.0N 66.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 47.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 062046
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

Lee has continued to quickly organize today. Convective banding,
especially over the eastern semicircle of the storm, has increased
since this morning. The center is embedded within a small central
dense overcast, and earlier this afternoon there was a hint of a
ragged eye in visible imagery. Although subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were still T3.5 (55 kt) and
most of the objective estimate are slightly below hurricane
strength, the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt based
on the continued improvement in organization this afternoon, and
the presence of a mid-level eye in a recent SSMIS microwave
overpass. Lee becomes the fourth hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic
hurricane season.

Recent satellite fixes suggest that Lee took a northwestward jog
this afternoon, however the longer-term motion is still
west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located
to the north of Lee should continue to steer the cyclone on a
west-northwestward heading through the weekend. Near the end of
the forecast period, Lee will be approaching the western periphery
of the ridge and the forward motion of the cyclone is likely to
slow at that time. The dynamical model guidance continues to
indicate that the core of Lee will pass to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands, however interests in those islands
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts as the typical
three-day NHC track error is about 90 n mi. The NHC track
forecast is again along the southern side of the guidance
envelope, between the faster and farther south HFIP corrected
consensus model, and the TVCA multi-model consensus aid. The
updated track foreast is slightly north of the previous advisory
primarily due to the more northward initial position, and it is a
little slower than the previous forecast to be closer to the
latest consensus aids.

The light to moderate east-northeasterly shear over Lee is forecast
to decrease overnight, and that along with warm SSTs and a moist
atmosphere along the forecast track should allow for additional
intensification. With the small inner core seen in microwave
imagery and favorable environmental conditions, a period of rapid
strengthening is a distinct possibility within the next day or two.
Although the exact timing of any rapid strengthening is tricky to
anticipate, the official forecast calls for a substantial 65-kt
increase in strength during the next 72 hours. This is similar to
the previous forecast, and is near the upper end of the intensity
guidance. By later in the weekend, hard-to-predict eyewall
replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Saturday and
could bring impacts to the northern Leeward Islands this weekend.
While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of
these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the
progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.9N 46.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.6N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 17.5N 53.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 18.6N 55.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 19.6N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 20.4N 59.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 21.9N 62.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 23.0N 65.2W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 062044
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE
BY EARLY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 46.4W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 46.4 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction
in forward speed over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Lee is expected to become a major hurricane in a day
or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 062044
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 46.4W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 46.4W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 46.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.6N 48.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.6N 55.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.6N 57.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.4N 59.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.9N 62.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 65.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 46.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 061510
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC WED SEP 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 45.5W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 45.5W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 45.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.8N 47.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.7N 49.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.6N 52.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.6N 54.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.7N 56.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.8N 59.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 62.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 22.9N 65.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 45.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 061450
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

Recent geostationary and microwave satellite imagery shows that the
convective structure of Lee continues to improve. Visible imagery
shows a well-defined curved band of convection that wraps around
the eastern portion of the circulation, and a couple of earlier
microwave images revealed a ragged mid-level eye that was open to
the north. The low-level structure noted in the 1156 UTC GMI
microwave overpass was quite organized with a well-defined
low-level eye feature. The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from
SAB and TAFB were T3.5 (55 kt), but given the continued increase in
structure the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt.

Lee is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt to the south side
of a low- to mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The ridge
is forecast to remain intact for the next several days and a
west-northwestward motion at around the same forward speed is
expected through the weekend. The track guidance continues to
show that the core of Lee will pass to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands, however interests in those islands
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts as the typical
three- and four-day NHC track errors are about 90 and 125 n mi,
respectively. The NHC track forecast is again along the southern
side of the guidance envelope, between the faster and farther south
HFIP corrected consensus model, and the TVCA multi-model consensus
aid.

Despite the continued increase in organization there appears to be
some east-northeasterly shear over Lee. The shear is forecast to
relax within the next 24 hours, and given the well-organized
low-level structure of the cyclone, steady to rapid strengthening
appears likely as Lee traverses SSTs of 29-30C during the next few
days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, bringing Lee to hurricane strength very soon, and to a
major hurricane within 48 hours. Continued strengthen seems likely
after that time, but hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles
could cause some fluctuations in intensity later in the weekend and
early next week. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end
of the guidance and calls for Lee to reach category 4 intensity in
two to three days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Saturday and
could bring impacts to the northern Leeward Islands this weekend.
While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of
these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the
progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.1N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 14.8N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.7N 49.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 16.6N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 17.6N 54.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 18.7N 56.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 19.8N 59.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 21.5N 62.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 22.9N 65.7W 130 KT 150 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 061447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...LIKELY TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR
HURRICANE BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 45.5W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 45.5 West. Lee is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction
in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Lee is expected to become a hurricane later today
and a major hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 060837
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

Lee continues to strengthen at a quick pace. Satellite images show
that deep convection has been increasing in intensity and coverage
in a central dense overcast feature and in a sprawling curved band
over the western semicircle. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB are now 3.5/55 kt, and accordingly, the initial intensity
has been increased to 55 kt. Lee is not far from hurricane
strength, and it likely will achieve that status later today.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt on the
south side of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. This
ridge is expected to persist to the north of Lee during the next
several days, keeping the storm on a west-northwest track through
the remainder of the week and over the weekend. Although the NHC
forecast and the model guidance continue to show Lee passing to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands this weekend, users are
reminded that the details of the track forecast are still uncertain
at those time ranges. For reference, the average NHC forecast track
errors are around 125 and 175 n mi on days 4 and 5, respectively.
The NHC track forecast lies on the southern side of the model
guidance envelope, roughly halfway between the usually most skillful
consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA.

Lee has already been strengthening fairly quickly despite some
east-northeasterly vertical wind shear over the system. Since the
shear is expected to relax while the storm remains over very warm
water and in a moist environment, continued steady to rapid
intensification is expected during the next few days. Most of the
intensity models are very aggressive, bringing Lee to major
hurricane status by the weekend, but they don't show much change in
strength in the short term. In addition, even the global models
like the GFS and ECMWF show explosive intensification and forecast
Lee's minimum pressure to drop by more than 60 mb by the end of the
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end
of the model guidance during the next 24-48 hours, but falls to near
the middle of the guidance envelope after that. Regardless of the
details, there is high confidence that Lee will be a powerful
hurricane late this week and over the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by late this week and
could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands this weekend. While it is
too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible
impacts, interests in this area should monitor the progress of Lee
and further updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.3N 46.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 15.1N 48.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 16.0N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 17.0N 53.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 18.1N 56.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 19.2N 58.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 21.1N 62.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 22.7N 65.5W 130 KT 150 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 060836
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 44.6W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 44.6 West. Lee is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction
in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Lee is expected to become a hurricane later today and
a major hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 060836
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 44.6W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 44.6W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 44.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.3N 46.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.1N 48.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N 51.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.0N 53.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.1N 56.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.2N 58.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 21.1N 62.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 22.7N 65.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 44.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 060412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.09.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 17.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2023 0 12.9N 17.7W 1011 22
1200UTC 06.09.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 107.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2023 0 13.0N 107.9W 998 40
1200UTC 06.09.2023 12 14.2N 109.9W 996 43
0000UTC 07.09.2023 24 15.0N 113.6W 995 35
1200UTC 07.09.2023 36 15.6N 116.3W 993 39
0000UTC 08.09.2023 48 16.1N 119.6W 991 36
1200UTC 08.09.2023 60 16.8N 122.4W 991 39
0000UTC 09.09.2023 72 18.1N 125.2W 993 40
1200UTC 09.09.2023 84 19.5N 127.7W 994 38
0000UTC 10.09.2023 96 21.3N 130.1W 998 39
1200UTC 10.09.2023 108 23.1N 131.8W 1002 34
0000UTC 11.09.2023 120 25.0N 133.2W 1007 28
1200UTC 11.09.2023 132 26.6N 134.6W 1011 24
0000UTC 12.09.2023 144 27.7N 135.5W 1012 25
1200UTC 12.09.2023 156 28.2N 136.6W 1014 24
0000UTC 13.09.2023 168 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 42.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2023 0 13.8N 42.1W 1008 27
1200UTC 06.09.2023 12 14.1N 44.7W 1006 37
0000UTC 07.09.2023 24 15.3N 46.9W 1004 41
1200UTC 07.09.2023 36 16.4N 49.5W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.09.2023 48 17.0N 52.2W 1003 35
1200UTC 08.09.2023 60 17.7N 54.9W 1002 42
0000UTC 09.09.2023 72 18.4N 57.9W 1000 45
1200UTC 09.09.2023 84 18.8N 60.2W 1000 48
0000UTC 10.09.2023 96 19.8N 62.1W 998 53
1200UTC 10.09.2023 108 20.5N 64.2W 998 55
0000UTC 11.09.2023 120 20.8N 65.6W 997 54
1200UTC 11.09.2023 132 21.2N 67.0W 996 52
0000UTC 12.09.2023 144 22.0N 67.7W 993 54
1200UTC 12.09.2023 156 23.3N 68.0W 987 51
0000UTC 13.09.2023 168 24.4N 68.9W 977 56

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 28.0N 33.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2023 0 28.0N 33.6W 1012 24
1200UTC 06.09.2023 12 27.5N 32.6W 1013 20
0000UTC 07.09.2023 24 26.3N 32.1W 1014 21
1200UTC 07.09.2023 36 25.3N 32.6W 1015 21
0000UTC 08.09.2023 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.5N 18.3E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2023 0 34.5N 18.3E 1003 29
1200UTC 06.09.2023 12 34.9N 18.1E 1003 30
0000UTC 07.09.2023 24 34.7N 17.4E 1005 29
1200UTC 07.09.2023 36 33.7N 18.3E 1006 32
0000UTC 08.09.2023 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.1N 35.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2023 72 16.1N 35.8W 1010 26
1200UTC 09.09.2023 84 17.1N 38.9W 1010 26
0000UTC 10.09.2023 96 18.5N 42.2W 1010 27
1200UTC 10.09.2023 108 19.8N 44.1W 1009 29
0000UTC 11.09.2023 120 21.7N 44.6W 1008 38
1200UTC 11.09.2023 132 23.9N 45.2W 1004 38
0000UTC 12.09.2023 144 25.9N 44.8W 1003 39
1200UTC 12.09.2023 156 27.5N 44.5W 1000 40
0000UTC 13.09.2023 168 28.6N 44.1W 998 39

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 31.8N 18.8E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2023 96 31.8N 18.8E 1005 36
1200UTC 10.09.2023 108 30.4N 20.2E 1005 33
0000UTC 11.09.2023 120 30.1N 20.4E 1006 28
1200UTC 11.09.2023 132 28.5N 22.0E 1005 25
0000UTC 12.09.2023 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060411

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 060411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.09.2023

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 17.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2023 12.9N 17.7W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JOVA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 107.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2023 13.0N 107.9W MODERATE
12UTC 06.09.2023 14.2N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 15.0N 113.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2023 15.6N 116.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2023 16.1N 119.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2023 16.8N 122.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2023 18.1N 125.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2023 19.5N 127.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2023 21.3N 130.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2023 23.1N 131.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2023 25.0N 133.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2023 26.6N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2023 27.7N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2023 28.2N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 42.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2023 13.8N 42.1W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2023 14.1N 44.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 15.3N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2023 16.4N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2023 17.0N 52.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2023 17.7N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2023 18.4N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2023 18.8N 60.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2023 19.8N 62.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2023 20.5N 64.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2023 20.8N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2023 21.2N 67.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2023 22.0N 67.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2023 23.3N 68.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2023 24.4N 68.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 28.0N 33.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2023 28.0N 33.6W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2023 27.5N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 26.3N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2023 25.3N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.5N 18.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2023 34.5N 18.3E WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2023 34.9N 18.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2023 34.7N 17.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2023 33.7N 18.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.1N 35.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2023 16.1N 35.8W WEAK
12UTC 09.09.2023 17.1N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2023 18.5N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2023 19.8N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2023 21.7N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2023 23.9N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2023 25.9N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2023 27.5N 44.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2023 28.6N 44.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 31.8N 18.8E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2023 31.8N 18.8E WEAK
12UTC 10.09.2023 30.4N 20.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2023 30.1N 20.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2023 28.5N 22.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060411

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 060238
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

The satellite structure of Lee has continued to improve tonight. A
prominent curved band of deep convection wraps around the western
and southern portions of the circulation. Recent SSMIS and GMI
microwave images reveal deep convection is occurring near the
center, though it is slightly displaced by some northeasterly shear.
There are also hints of a formative inner core trying to take shape,
all of which suggest that Lee is strengthening. The initial
intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory, in best agreement
with a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Lee continues to move west-northwestward at about 15 kt. A mid-level
ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic is expected to be the
primary steering mechanism for the next several days, with Lee
forecast to continue on a west-northwestward heading across the
central tropical Atlantic through the forecast period. Once again,
the track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario.
Overall, the latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous prediction, with only minor adjustments that keep our
forecast between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Users are
reminded that the average NHC forecast track errors are around 125
and 175 n mi on days 4 and 5, respectively. Thus, it is too soon to
determine exactly how close this system will be to the Leeward
Islands by the weekend.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear extremely favorable
for rapid intensification (RI) during the next several days,
particularly once the northeasterly shear over Lee subsides in a day
or so. The forecast track of Lee brings the cyclone over anomalously
warm SSTs during the next several days, with generally low shear and
favorable upper diffluence to support significant strengthening. The
updated NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly higher
than the previous one, toward the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. This
forecast calls for Lee to become a hurricane in 24 h and a major
hurricane by 60 h, with continued intensification thereafter. It is
noted that the regional hurricane models depict even stronger
solutions, so future adjustments could be necessary. Regardless,
Lee bears close monitoring as there is high confidence it will
become a very powerful hurricane by this weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by late this week and
could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands this weekend. While it is
too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible
impacts, interests in this area should monitor the progress of Lee
and further updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 13.5N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 14.1N 44.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.9N 47.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 15.7N 49.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 16.6N 52.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 17.8N 54.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 18.9N 57.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 20.8N 61.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 22.5N 65.0W 130 KT 150 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 060237
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...LEE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 43.0W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 43.0 West. Lee is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction
in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Lee is forecast to
become a hurricane by tomorrow night and a major hurricane by
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 060236
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 43.0W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 43.0W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.1N 44.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.9N 47.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.7N 49.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.6N 52.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.8N 54.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.9N 57.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.8N 61.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 22.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 43.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 052054
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

1-min GOES-16 satellite imagery shows that the tropical cyclone has
been improving in structure throughout the day, with additional
curved banding features and a new burst of convection near the
center. A late-arriving ASCAT-C pass indicated maximum winds
supporting 35 kt, and the satellite presentation has notably
improved since that time. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt
to match the satellite trends.

Lee is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. There are no
significant changes to the NHC track forecast with a mid-level ridge
over the central Atlantic likely to persist to the north of the
storm. This ridge should provide a steady steering current, with a
general west-northwestward course expected through the weekend with
some reduction in forward speed. The spread in the model guidance
remains low, and the official forecast is adjusted a bit to the
northeast closer to the model consensus. Still, it is too early to
determine exactly how close this system will be to the Leeward
Islands given the average track forecast error at those time ranges.

It is becoming a question of when and not if rapid intensification
(RI) occurs with Lee. A well-defined outflow pattern has developed
over the circulation, and there are some hints on a recent SSMI/S
microwave pass that parts of an inner core are forming. There's
still some notable northeasterly shear that could keep Lee in
check for the next day or two, so the NHC intensity forecast will
stay at a more moderate rate of intensification during that time.
All of the models decrease the shear by Friday, so RI is explicitly
forecast at that time frame while Lee is moving over extremely warm
waters. The new forecast is adjusted higher than the last advisory,
near the model consensus, but there's a notable contingent of
guidance higher than this forecast. There is increasing confidence
on Lee becoming a very powerful hurricane by this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by this weekend and
could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that time. While it
is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these
possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the
progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 13.2N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.7N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.4N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 15.2N 48.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.2N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.2N 53.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.3N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 20.4N 60.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 22.2N 64.3W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 052050
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...TROPICAL STORM LEE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 41.8W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 41.8 West. Lee is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days with a slight reduction
in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Lee is forecast to be a hurricane within a couple
of days and will likely become a major hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 052049
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 41.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 41.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 41.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.7N 43.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.4N 46.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.2N 48.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 51.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.2N 53.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.3N 56.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 20.4N 60.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.2N 64.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 41.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 051459
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

Satellite images indicate that the tropical wave (Invest AL95) that
we have been following for several days has become better organized
this morning, with many curved low-level banding features. A
partial scatterometer pass near 1201 UTC indicated a well-defined
center had formed, with winds speeds of about 30 kt. Thus,
advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen, and
the current intensity is set to 30 kt.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A
mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to persist to
the north of the tropical cyclone, keeping the system moving with
this general motion through Saturday. The spread in the model
guidance is remarkably low for a first advisory, and the official
forecast is near or west of the model consensus. However, it
should be noted that the NOAA corrected-consensus aids and some
ensemble members are still to the left of the official forecast, so
it is too early to determine exactly how close this system will get
to the Leeward Islands given the average track forecast error at
those time ranges.

The environment around the depression appears to be conducive for
strengthening. The only obvious hindering factor is
light-to-moderate northeasterly shear, which should keep the
intensification rate in check in the short term. However, in two to
three days, this shear is forecast to relax with an upper-level
ridge building near the cyclone, and the system should be moving
over record-warm waters of near 30 deg C east of the Lesser Antilles
(that would look more in place in the Gulf of Mexico). These
factors could support rapid intensification by the end of the week,
although it too early to determine exactly when this might occur
until a better-defined inner core forms. The NHC intensity forecast
is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies
below the intensity consensus. All indications are that the
depression will become a strong hurricane by the end of the forecast
period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a major hurricane by
this weekend and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that
time. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude
of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor
the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 12.5N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 12.8N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 13.6N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 15.3N 49.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 52.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 17.3N 54.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 19.4N 59.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 051455
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 40.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 40.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.8N 42.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.6N 44.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.4N 47.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.3N 49.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 52.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.3N 54.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.4N 59.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 40.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 051456
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 40.2W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 40.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to be a hurricane in a couple of days
and could become a major hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>