Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for OPHELIA-23
in United States, Bahamas

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 240241
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Ophelia appears to have lost its tropical characteristics. Surface
observations show a well-defined wind shift associated with a
frontal boundary extending across eastern Virginia, and the heaviest
precipitation is now well north of the center, oriented along and
to the north of the front. In addition, phase space diagrams based
on global model fields indicate that the system has entered the
asymmetric cold-core regime. Therefore, Ophelia is being declared a
post-tropical cyclone. Surface observations indicate that maximum
winds have decreased to 30 kt, mainly over the ocean well east of
the center.

With the last bit of convection having been sheared off to the
north, the center appears to have slowed down since the last
advisory, and the current estimate is northward at 360/7 kt. The
circulation is expected to turn northeastward on Sunday, but also
become more diffuse while it moves across eastern Virginia and the
Delmarva Peninsula. The NHC forecast now shows the low becoming
absorbed by the nearby frontal boundary by 36 hours. Maximum winds
are likely to remain around 30 kt until dissipation, mainly in
a band to the north of the front off the coast of Long Island.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center on Ophelia. Future information on Ophelia can be
found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 500 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.


Key Messages:

1. Coastal flooding will continue along portions of Chesapeake Bay
and its tidal rivers through Sunday. Refer to statements from your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.

2. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce localized flash and
urban flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states
from Virginia to New Jersey through Sunday.

3. Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the U.S. east
coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and
rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 37.1N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/1200Z 38.2N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 240240
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 77.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.2N 77.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 77.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OPHELIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT21
KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 240240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW BUT CONTINUES TO POSE A
RISK OF COASTAL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 77.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Coastal flood warnings, as well as flood watches and flash flood
warnings, remain in effect for portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 77.6 West.
Ophelia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). The
center of Ophelia is expected to turn toward the north-northeast
and northeast, moving across eastern Virginia and the Delmarva
Peninsula through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
The post-tropical low is expected to become absorbed by a frontal
boundary Sunday night or early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated within portions of
Chesapeake Bay and its tidal rivers but should gradually recede
overnight and into Sunday. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall through Sunday night:

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic from Virginia through New Jersey...1
to 3 inches with isolated higher totals up to 5 inches.

Across southeastern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches.

This rainfall may produce localized flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic region from
Virginia to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas
of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will continue to affect much of
the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Ophelia. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 500 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 240006
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ophelia
Intermediate Advisory Number 10A...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...ALL STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 77.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Coastal flooding warnings and wind advisories remain in effect for
portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic. For storm information specific
to your area, please monitor products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ophelia
was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 77.6 West. Ophelia
is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the northeast is expected by tomorrow. On the forecast track,
the center of Ophelia is expected to continue moving over
southeastern Virginia through tonight, and then over the Delmarva
Peninsula by tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Ophelia
is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Hatteras Inlet, NC to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Rivers...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Hatteras Inlet, NC...1-2 ft
Neuse, Bay, Pamlico, and Pungo Rivers...1-2 ft
Albemarle and Pamlico Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Gusty winds to tropical storm force are still possible near
the coasts of North Carolina and Virginia during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall through Sunday night:

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic from north central North Carolina
through New Jersey...1 to 3 inches with isolated higher totals up
to 5 inches.

Across southeastern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will continue to affect much of
the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur through tonight across parts
of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 232343
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...ALL STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 77.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Coastal flooding warnings and wind advisories remain in effect for
portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic. For storm information specific
to your area, please monitor products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 77.6 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northeast is expected by tomorrow. On the forecast track, the
center of Ophelia is expected to continue moving over southeastern
Virginia through tonight, and then over the Delmarva Peninsula by
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Ophelia
is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Hatteras Inlet, NC to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Rivers...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
Beaufort Inlet, NC to Hatteras Inlet, NC...1-2 ft
Neuse, Bay, Pamlico, and Pungo Rivers...1-2 ft
Albemarle and Pamlico Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Gusty winds to tropical storm force are still possible near
the coasts of North Carolina and Virginia during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall through Sunday night:

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic from north central North Carolina
through New Jersey...1 to 3 inches with isolated higher totals up
to 5 inches.

Across southeastern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will continue to affect much of
the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur through tonight across parts
of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 232053
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Ophelia continues to weaken as it crosses into southeastern
Virginia. The radar presentation has been gradually degrading as the
Doppler velocities continue to decrease. However, there remains a
WeatherFlow station in Pamlico Sound reporting surface winds between
30-35 kt. In addition, an earlier scatterometer pass also showed
tropical-storm-force winds well to the northeast in association with
an offshore frontal boundary. Thus, Ophelia will remain a tropical
storm with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt for this advisory.

Ophelia is still moving northward at 360/10 kt. Little has changed
with the forecast reasoning, as Ophelia should gradually turn
northeastward over the next 12-24 hours, with the center gradually
losing definition as it begins to merge with the aforementioned
frontal boundary off the mid-Atlantic coastline. The latest track
guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest
NHC track forecast is quite similar, if just a touch north, of the
prior forecast. Ophelia should continue to gradually spin down
inland, though higher winds may still continue to be observed with
the frontal boundary to the system's northeast. By tomorrow, Ophelia
is expected to merge with this frontal boundary, marking its
transition to post-tropical status, with the system expected to
become fully absorbed by early next week.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue through this evening
along portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward along
the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coastline within the Tropical Storm Warning
area.

2. Storm surge inundation will continue through this evening over
portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern
Virginia, including Pamlico Sound and the tidal rivers of the lower
Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce locally considerable
flash and urban flooding impacts across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 36.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/0600Z 37.9N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1800Z 39.1N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0600Z 39.6N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 232051
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA CROSSES INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING OVER COASTAL OUTER BANKS AND
MID-ATLANTIC AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 77.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from East of Cape Lookout, North
Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Suffolk,
Virginia to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the
Albemarle Sound, and also south of Hatteras Inlet, including
Pamlico River and Sound.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued for portions of the
Pamlico and Albemarle Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Hatteras Inlet, North Carolina to Duck
* Colonial Beach, Virginia to Suffolk

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 77.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northeast is expected by tomorrow. On the forecast track, the
center of Ophelia is expected to continue moving over southeastern
Virginia through tonight, and then over the Delmarva Peninsula by
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected, and Ophelia is likely to become a
post-tropical cyclone tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station in Pamlico Sound recently
reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h), with a gust up to 43
mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Hatteras Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...2-4 ft
James and York Rivers...2-4 ft
Rappahannock River...2-4 ft
Lower Potomac River...2-4 ft
Duck, NC to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft
Surf City NC, NC to Hatteras Inlet, NC...1-2 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers...1-2 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...1-2 ft
Albemarle and Pamlico Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions
of the coast of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the
warning area through this evening.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall through Sunday night:

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic from north central North Carolina
through New Jersey...1 to 3 inches with isolated higher totals up
to 5 inches.

Across southeastern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will continue to affect much of
the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur through tonight across parts
of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 232047
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 77.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......270NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 77.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.9N 77.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 39.1N 76.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.6N 73.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 77.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 231751
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL ONGOING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM S OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning for the Neuse River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Pamlico River
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Cape Lookout, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 77.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued northward
motion is expected today, followed by a gradual turn toward the
northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia
will soon enter southeastern Virginia this evening, and then move
over the Delmarva Peninsula tonight into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (70 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected through the remainder
of the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become a post-tropical
cyclone by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...1-3 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle and Pamlico Sound...2-4 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast
of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the warning area
and will continue spreading northward this afternoon.

RAINFALL:
Ophelia is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall:

Portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3 to 5
inches with isolated higher totals of 8 inches through tonight.

Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches
through Sunday.

Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches through Monday morning.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 231451
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Since Ophelia made landfall earlier this morning, the tropical storm
has maintained a healthy appearance in radar reflectivity from both
the Morehead City and Raleigh radars, though the Doppler wind
velocities have steadily decreased as it moves further inland.
1-minute GOES-16 visible imagery depicts curved banding near the
center of Ophelia, though the coldest cloud tops on infrared imagery
have warmed from last night. The Doppler velocity data and surface
observations suggest that maximum sustained winds are down to 45 kt
this advisory, though this could be somewhat generous. However,
Ophelia continues to produce a large swath of heavy rainfall both
near and north of the current storm position, where a large region
of Flood Watches and Warnings remain in effect.

The tropical storm appears to have accelerated this morning, with
the latest estimated motion at 355/11 kt. Over the next 12-24 hours,
Ophelia is expected to begin turning northeastward as it moves into
southeastern Virginia by this evening. This motion should slow a bit
as it becomes tangled up in a frontal boundary moving into the
Delmarva Peninsula and off the mid-Atlantic coastline on Sunday. The
track forecast this cycle is quite similar to the prior advisory, in
best agreement with the simple and corrected track guidance.

Continued weakening is expected as Ophelia continues to move inland
across eastern North Carolina and then southeastern Virginia. On
Sunday, Ophelia's circulation is forecast to become increasingly
elongated as interacts with a pre-existing frontal boundary offshore
of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Most of the model guidance shows
Ophelia merging with the baroclinic zone in about 24 hours, marking
its transition to an extratropical cyclone, with the low ultimately
being absorbed by the frontal zone in 48-60 h, though this could
occur sooner.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce locally considerable
flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 35.6N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 36.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 38.2N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/1200Z 39.3N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 231449
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 77.2W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......280NE 130SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 230SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 77.2W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.8N 77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...190NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.2N 76.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 39.3N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 77.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 231449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA MOVING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 77.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from Cape Lookout to Cape Fear in
North Carolina has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning south of Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina
westward along the coast has been discontinued, and the Storm
Surge Watch from Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Cape Lookout, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 77.2 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued northward
motion is expected today, followed by a gradual turn toward the
northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia
will continue moving across eastern North Carolina over southeastern
Virginia over the remainder of today, and over the Delmarva
Peninsula by tonight into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is expected through the remainder of the weekend,
and Ophelia is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast
of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the warning area
and will continue spreading northward today.

RAINFALL:
Ophelia is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall:

Portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3 to 5
inches with isolated higher totals of 8 inches through tonight.

Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches
through Sunday.

Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches through Monday morning.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 231156
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA MOVING INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 77.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch north of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke
Inlet has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 77.0 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (21 km/h). A continued
northward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia
will move across eastern North Carolina this morning, and then move
into southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula by the end of
today into and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (105 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected through the rest of
the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become a post-tropical
cyclone tonight or Sunday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center. An observation in Cape Lookout, North Carolina,
recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (75 km/h) with a gust to
71 mph (115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast
of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the warning area
and will continue spreading northward today.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3
to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches into Sunday
morning.

Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches
tonight through Sunday.

Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches Saturday into Monday.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 231020
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Ophelia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
620 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA...

Doppler Radar images, Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and surface
observations indicate that Ophelia made landfall near Emerald Isle
in North Carolina around 615 am EDT (1015 UTC) with estimated
maximum winds of 70 mph (110 km/h).

An observation in Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 73 mph (117
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 77.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi/Papin/Delgado

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 230850
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

WSR-88D radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City, North
Carolina, show that the center of Ophelia is approaching the North
Carolina coastline with landfall likely within the next couple of
hours. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the
system during the last several hours and have found that central
pressure of Ophelia has dropped a few millibars to 980 mb this
morning, with highest flight-level winds on the eastern side of the
system. Using the standard surface wind reduction from flight-level
suggest that maximum surface winds are likely between 60-65 kt. The
initial intensity is held at 60 kt based on a combination of the
flight-level winds and velocity data from Doppler radar.

Ophelia's motion has been fairly erratic the past several hours as
it approaches the coast. The current estimated motion is is
north-northwestward (345 degrees) at 8 kt. Ophelia is moving around
the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and is expected to
turn more northward today and then northeastward the next few days.
On this track the center of Ophelia will move inland over North
Carolina in a few hours, and then across portions of southeastern
Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula tonight and Sunday. There was
very little change in the forecast with just a slight rightward
shift in about 36 h over the Delmarva. This forecast is in fairly
good agreement with the global model guidance.

Ophelia will be making landfall in North Carolina within a few hours
and the intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement with steady
weakening and winds should drop below tropical-storm-force in about
a day or so. The system is forecast to become extratropical by 36
hours, although simulated satellite imagery and models suggest this
transition could happen near or just beyond 24 h. The extratropical
low will dissipate over the Delmarva Peninsula when it becomes
absorbed within a frontal zone.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area early this morning.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from this system may produce locally considerable
flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 34.3N 76.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 35.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0600Z 37.0N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 38.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 230849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...OPHELIA CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 76.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 76.9 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the north is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward
the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ophelia will reach the coast of North Carolina within the next
couple of hours, and then move across eastern North Carolina,
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula the rest of today
and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along
the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after landfall
through the rest of the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become an
extratropical cyclone tonight or Sunday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41037 at Wrightsville Beach Offshore
recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust
to 83 mph (134 km/h). A sustained wind of 43 mph (68 km/h) and a
gust of 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported near Morehead City,
North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches)
based on aircraft reconnaissance data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast
of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the warning area
and will continue spreading northward today. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area early this morning.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia?-?3
to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches into Sunday
morning.

Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic?-?2 to 4 inches
tonight through Sunday.

Across southern New York through southern New England?-?1 to 3 inches
Saturday into Monday.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 230848
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 76.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......270NE 80SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 180SE 210SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 76.9W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.5N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N 77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.2N 76.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 76.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 230547
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 77.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 77.1 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the north is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia
will reach the coast of North Carolina early this morning, and then
move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the
Delmarva Peninsula today and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along
the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after landfall
through the rest of the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become
extratropical by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals recently
reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph
(97 km/h). NOAA saildrone 1045 located 70 miles (115 km)
north-northeast of the center recorded a sustained wind of 49 mph
(80 km/h) and a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb based on dropsonde
data from Air Force Hurricane Hunters. (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast
of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the warning area
and will continue spreading northward today. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area early this morning.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3
to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday
morning.

Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches
through Sunday.

Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches through Monday.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today for portions of
the mid-Atlantic coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 230241
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...OPHELIA'S CENTER FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY SATURDAY...
...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 76.8 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the north is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward
the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Ophelia will reach the coast of North Carolina early Saturday, and
then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and
the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along
the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after landfall
through the rest of the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become
extratropical by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals recently
reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 71 mph
(115 km/h). An observation at Poquoson River Light in Virginia
reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph
(87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the
coast of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the
warning area and will continue spreading northward through Saturday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area early
Saturday.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3
to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday
morning.

Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches
tonight through Sunday.

Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches Saturday into Monday.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Saturday for portions of
the mid-Atlantic coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 230241
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Recent WSR-88D radar data from Wilmington and Morehead City, North
Carolina, show convection wrapping around Ophelia's center, which is
also embedded beneath a convective canopy in satellite imagery.
Soon after the previous advisory, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunters measured SFMR winds to hurricane force west of the center
within the deep convection, however those winds were not measured
again on their final pass through that area. Radar imagery and
microwave data from that period showed that a mid-level eye feature
had been forming well to the west of the surface center, but that
feature has since dissipated, suggesting that it--and the
hurricane-force winds--may have been a transient occurrence.
Regardless, the SFMR and flight-level winds were strong enough to
support an intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the estimated
intensity right now. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Ophelia in a couple of hours and should
provide a final estimate of the intensity before the storm reaches
land.

The current motion is north-northwestward (330 degrees) at 10 kt.
Ophelia is moving around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge and is therefore expected to turn northward and then
northeastward during the next couple of days. This track will take
Ophelia's center inland over North Carolina on Saturday, and then
across portions of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula
Saturday night and Sunday. An additional westward shift was made
to the first 24 hours of the official track forecast, mainly due to
Ophelia's center being tugged westward by the deep convection
earlier this afternoon.

Ophelia's center is only expected to be over the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream for another 6 hours or so before moving inland, so the
window for strengthening is beginning to close. It should be
stressed, however, that there is very little difference if Ophelia
reaches land as a 60-kt tropical storm or a 65-kt hurricane.
Weakening is expected once the center moves inland Saturday
morning, and the intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement
that the winds should drop below tropical storm force between 24
and 36 hours while Ophelia is over southeastern Virginia. The
system is forecast to become extratropical by 36 hours, although
the latest phase-space diagrams and simulated satellite imagery
suggest this transition could happen as soon as 24 hours. The
extratropical low is forecast to dissipate by 60 hours near the
Delmarva Peninsula when it becomes absorbed within its associated
frontal zone.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area through Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally
considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 33.6N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 35.0N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 36.6N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 38.0N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0000Z 39.0N 76.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 230240
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 76.8W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......270NE 80SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 180SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 76.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.0N 77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...230NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.6N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.0N 76.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 76.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 222348
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...OPHELIA PRODUCING WINDS JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE...
...WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 76.6 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so,
followed by a slight turn toward the north and north-northeast. On
the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of
North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina,
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along
the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after landfall
through the rest of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center. A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust
of 70 mph (113 km/h) during the past couple of hours.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is
984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North
Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading
northward through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3
to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday
morning.

Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches
tonight through Sunday.

Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches Saturday into Monday.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight through Saturday
for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 222058
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

The structure of the cyclone has undergone some noteworthy changes
today. GOES-16 1-min visible imagery, along with data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and earlier scatterometer data, indicate
that the center of the system has become better defined and is no
longer attached to fronts. The satellite presentation has evolved as
well, with the center becoming tucked under an area of deep
convection this afternoon. The radius of maximum wind has contracted
to around 50 to 60 n mi, further supporting its designation as
Tropical Storm Ophelia earlier this afternoon. Aircraft data reveal
that Ophelia has also strengthened, with the minimum pressure down
to 986 mb and reduced flight-level and SFMR winds that support an
initial intensity of 60 kt.

Ophelia is moving north-northwestward (345/11 kt) within the flow
between an upper-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and a ridge
over the western Atlantic. This general motion should continue
through Saturday while the center of Ophelia approaches North
Carolina and moves inland within the warning area. Thereafter, a
slight decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north and
north-northeast is forecast through the weekend. There was a slight
westward shift in the near-term track guidance, and the updated NHC
forecast has been nudged in that direction toward the latest
multi-model consensus aids.

The intensity forecast is more challenging given the unexpected
strengthening trend observed today. Most of the intensity guidance
shows little change in strength before landfall, although the global
models show additional deepening of the low. However, some
additional strengthening cannot be ruled out as Ophelia traverses
the warm waters of the Gulf Stream on its approach to eastern North
Carolina. While this does not seem like the most likely outcome and
is not explicitly forecast, the increased risk warrants the issuance
of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the North Carolina coast from
north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet. After landfall, the system is
expected to quickly weaken due to the combination of land
interaction, drier air, and strong upper-level winds. Ophelia is
likely to become extratropical again in 36-48 h, with dissipation by
72 h as it becomes absorbed by a frontal boundary over the
mid-Atlantic region.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today into Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area early Saturday.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce locally
considerable flash, and urban flooding impacts across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey through
Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 32.9N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 34.4N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 36.1N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 37.6N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/1800Z 38.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0600Z 39.9N 76.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 222058
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 76.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch from Bogue Inlet to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina, has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 76.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so,
followed by a slight turn toward the north and north-northeast. On
the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of
North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina,
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and
Sunday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before
landfall along the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected
after landfall through the rest of the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center. A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h)
and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 986 mb
(29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North
Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading
northward through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall:

Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3
to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday
morning.

Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches
tonight through Sunday.

Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches Saturday into Monday.

This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic
region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is
possible in areas of heavier rainfall.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight through Saturday
for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 222057
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 76.3W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......240NE 60SE 70SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 210SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 76.3W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 34.4N 76.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.1N 77.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.6N 77.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.9N 76.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.9N 76.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 76.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 221751
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 76.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 76.0 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so,
followed by a slight turn toward the north. On the forecast track,
the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina
tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern
Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and satellite wind
data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60
mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is
possible before landfall along the coast of North Carolina.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of
60 mph (97 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and
a gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North
Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading
northward through Saturday.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall,
with localized amounts of 7 inches across portions of eastern North
Carolina and southeast Virginia from today into Saturday. Across
remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2
to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from later today into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding
impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through
Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 221453
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Surface observations indicate the low pressure system off the
southeast U.S. coast is deepening this morning. Recent pressure and
wind data from NOAA buoy 41002 suggest the pressure has fallen to
around 996 mb. While surface analyses indicate there is still a
front in close proximity to the low, deep convection has become more
concentrated to the north of the center. In fact, GOES-16 1-min
visible imagery suggests the low-level center is re-forming closer
to the convection. The broad wind field is asymmetric, with the
strongest observed winds occurring to the north and west of the
frontal feature. A NOAA Saildrone sampling the system reported a
sustained wind of 40 kt and a gust around 50 kt earlier this
morning. Based on the available observations, the initial intensity
is held at 45 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

The initial motion of the cyclone is just west of due north (350/10
kt). The system is forecast to move north-northwestward to northward
through Saturday along the west side of a subtropical ridge over the
western and central Atlantic. This motion will take the center of
the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning
and over the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday. The
track guidance is in good agreement for this forecast. Based on the
slight northward adjustment to the initial position, the updated NHC
forecast is slightly faster than the previous one, showing the
cyclone center just inland in 24 h.

Based on recent satellite and observational trends, the cyclone
appears likely to strengthen during the next 12 h over the warm Gulf
Stream waters. The more organized convective structure should also
facilitate its transition to a tropical storm during the next 6-12 h
as it starts to become separated from its frontal features and
develops a smaller inner core. The near-term intensity forecast has
been bumped up slightly (55 kt) before the system moves inland early
Saturday. After landfall, the system is expected to weaken due to
the negative influences of land interaction, drier air, and strong
upper-level winds. This forecast shows extratropical transition by
48 h with dissipation by 72 h, in good agreement with the GFS and
ECMWF models.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm
Warning area today into Saturday night.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers, the lower James River, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where
Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce flash, urban, and
small stream flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 32.3N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 23/0000Z 33.2N 76.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 23/1200Z 34.9N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0000Z 36.8N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 38.3N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/0000Z 39.3N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 221451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALBEMARLE SOUND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 75.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning
for Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, North Carolina, the Tidal Potomac south
of Colonial Beach, and portions of the western Albemarle Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 32.3 North, longitude 75.6 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north to north-northwest
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North
Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina,
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast before landfall, and the low is
expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of
North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm,
the system is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust
of 51 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are reaching portions of the North
Carolina coast within the warning area and will spread northward
through Saturday.

RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches across portions of
eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia from today into
Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from
later today into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect much of the east
coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through
Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 221450
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 75.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 0SE 60SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 160SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 75.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 33.2N 76.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 80SE 80SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.9N 76.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.8N 77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.3N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.3N 76.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 75.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 221152
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 75.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...465 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 245 MI...450 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near
latitude 31.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north to north-northwest
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North
Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina,
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the
low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the
coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical
storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
from NOAA buoy 41002 is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina later this morning,
and spread northward through Saturday.

RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia into Saturday. Across remaining
portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4
inches of rainfall are forecast from late today into Sunday. This
rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through
Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220834
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

The low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is gradually
organizing and strengthening this morning. The cyclone is
developing subtropical characteristics with deep convection
consolidating on the system's north side and the center gaining
definition, but there are still some frontal features associated
with it. NOAA buoy 41002 well off the coast of Cape Hatteras has
seen a significant pressure drop during the past several hours, and
the latest report was down to 1002 mb with 30-kt winds. A
saildrone measured winds of 32 kt well northeast of the center
several hours ago. Based on these pressure and wind observations as
well as satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is
increased to 45 kt. Based on recent trends, it seems likely that
the low will become a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today.

The system has been moving erratically overnight, but recent
satellite images suggest that it is now moving northward at about 7
kt. A northward to northwestward motion is expected during the next
couple of days as the system moves on the west side of a subtropical
high, taking the cyclone inland over eastern North Carolina early
Saturday and over portions of the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night
and Sunday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous
one and not far from the GFS and ECMWF models.

The notable strengthening that has occurred overnight is due to a
combination of baroclinic influences from the mid- to upper-level
trough just to the west of the system and the warm Gulf Stream
waters. The system will likely strengthen a little more before it
reaches the coast of North Carolina. After landfall, land
interaction, dry air, and strong shear should lead to weakening and
cause the system to transition back to an extratropical low in a
couple of days.

It should be noted that the cyclone has a large wind field, and
tropical-storm-force winds will begin well ahead of the center.

Key Messages:

1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing
a large area of tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to
strengthen further before it reaches the coast of North Carolina
early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within
the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning later this morning and
continuing into Saturday night.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake
Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey through Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 30.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/1800Z 31.6N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 23/0600Z 33.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 35.3N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 37.0N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1800Z 38.3N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220831
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 75.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 75.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N 75.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...250NE 70SE 70SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.4N 76.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.3N 76.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N 76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N 76.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 39.0N 75.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 75.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220831
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near
latitude 30.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwest to north motion
is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina
through tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina,
southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it
reaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it
becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring
tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and
mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina later this morning,
and spread northward into Saturday.

RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia into Saturday. Across remaining
portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4
inches of rainfall are forecast from late today into Sunday. This
rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through
Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220536
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 75.0W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near
latitude 29.7 North, longitude 75.0 West. The low is moving toward
the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster northward or
north-northwestward motion is expected later this morning through
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the low will approach
the coast of North Carolina through tonight, and then move across
eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva
Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches
the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a
tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm
conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high... 70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina later this morning,
and spread northward into Saturday.

RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia into Saturday. Across remaining
portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4
inches of rainfall are forecast from late today into Sunday. This
rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through
Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220252
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery suggests that the center
of the low pressure system off the southeastern U.S. coast has
become better defined this evening. Nearly all of the associated
deep convection remains oriented in a curved band extending around
the northern and eastern sides of the circulation, although a few
convective elements are beginning to fill in on the back side of
the system as well. Based on 1-minute wind observations from NOAA
buoy 41002 and ship reports, the initial intensity is raised to 35
kt, with all tropical-storm-force winds currently north of the
center on the north side of an attached warm front.

The center does not appear to have moved much since the time it
became better defined. Based on previous fixes, the current motion
is estimated to be north-northeastward (015 degrees) at 3 kt.
The dynamical guidance indicates that the center should begin moving
northward--or re-form to the north--overnight, with a northward or
north-northwestward motion continuing through Sunday morning. This
forecast track brings the center of the low inland across eastern
North Carolina on Saturday, and then across the southern Chesapeake
Bay and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Except
for the errant HWRF (which appears too far west), the rest of the
guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is near the
middle of the envelope. This new forecast is a bit east of the
previous prediction, mainly for the portion of the track over land.

Baroclinic processes associated with a sharp upper-level trough to
the west of the low are expected induce strengthening, and the NHC
intensity forecast is close to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA solutions,
bringing the maximum winds to 50 kt in 24-36 hours before the
center reaches the North Carolina coast. In addition, simulated
satellite imagery suggests there could be an increase of deep
convection near the low's center by Friday evening, and phase-space
diagrams show the system just barely entering the deep warm core
regime. Therefore, transition to a tropical cyclone is shown by 24
hours, although there still is some uncertainty on that occurrence
due to frontal boundaries still in the area. Weakening is forecast
after the center moves onshore, and the system is expected to
become extratropical again by 60 hours. An official forecast is
only provided out through 72 hours since global model fields
show the low becoming absorbed by the associated frontal boundary
off the New Jersey coast by 96 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing
tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to strengthen further
before it reaches the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area
beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday night.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake
Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday.

4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S.
east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening
surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 29.5N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/1200Z 31.2N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 23/0000Z 32.5N 76.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 23/1200Z 34.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 36.4N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1200Z 37.9N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0000Z 39.0N 75.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220251
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 75.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 75.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 75.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.2N 75.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...280NE 50SE 60SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.5N 76.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...380NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.4N 76.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...380NE 120SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.4N 76.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 37.9N 76.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.0N 75.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 75.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220251
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST STRENGTHENING AND NOW
PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 75.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near
latitude 29.5 North, longitude 75.3 West. The low is moving toward
the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northward or
north-northwestward motion is expected to begin early Friday and
continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the
low will approach the coast of North Carolina through Friday night,
and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia,
and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm
before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of
whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring
tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and
mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina Friday morning, and
spread northward Friday into Saturday.

RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday. Across
remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2
to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late Friday into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning Friday night
through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 212350
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
29.5 North, longitude 75.6 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is forecast by late Friday, and that motion should continue
into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone
is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the
warning area Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm while it approaches the coast
of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical
storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to
portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy and ship
observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and
spread northward Friday night and Saturday.

RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday. Across
remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2
to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late Friday into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning Friday night
through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 212108 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Corrected Storm Surge Warning area to include Albemarle Sound

...LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 75.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Duck, North Carolina,
to Chincoteague Virginia, including Chesapeake Bay south of
Windmill Point, and for the Neuse River, the Pamlico River, and
portions of Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward in
Chesapeake Bay to North Beach, and into the Tidal Potomac to Cobb
Island.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Tidal Potomac south of
Colonial Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse River, Pamlico River, and portions of Pamlico Sound
* Portions of the Albemarle Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City NC to Duck NC
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Remainder of the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
29.2 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is forecast by late Friday, and that motion should continue
into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone
is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the
warning area Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm while it approaches the
coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a
tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm
conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and
spread northward Friday night and Saturday.

RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday. Across
remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2
to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late Friday into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning Friday night
through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 212056
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 75.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Duck, North Carolina,
to Chincoteague Virginia, including Chesapeake Bay south of
Windmill Point, and for the Neuse River, the Pamlico River, and
portions of Pamlico Sound.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward in
Chesapeake Bay to North Beach, and into the Tidal Potomac to Cobb
Island.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Tidal Potomac south of
Colonial Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse River, Pamlico River, and portions of Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City NC to Duck NC
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Albemarle and the remainder of Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
29.2 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is forecast by late Friday, and that motion should continue
into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone
is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the
warning area Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm while it approaches the
coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a
tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm
conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft
Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft
Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft
South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC...1-3 ft
Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft
Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft
Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and
spread northward Friday night and Saturday.

RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday. Across
remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2
to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late Friday into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding
impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning Friday night
through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 212050
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 75.9W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 75.9W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.8N 75.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 32.6N 76.0W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.8N 76.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...380NE 90SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.6N 77.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...410NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.3N 76.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.7N 76.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 40.0N 74.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 75.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 212051
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

High-resolution visible satellite imagery and surface synoptic
observations indicate that the disturbance has not yet acquired a
well-defined center of circulation. There is a distinct
comma-shaped curved band of convection over the eastern portion of
the system, with moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear over
the area. The current intensity is set at 30 kt based on surface
observations.

Since there is still no distinct center the initial motion, 360/7
kt, is an educated guess. The dynamical model guidance suggests
that there may be some center re-formations during the next day or
two. However, the system should move generally northward to
north-northwestward over the next couple of days while embedded on
the eastern side of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United
States. The official forecast is close to the previous one and is
also close to the corrected dynamical model consensus.

Strong vertical wind shear is likely to persist over the system,
but the global models show strengthening before landfall. This
intensification is probably at least partially due to baroclinic
energy sources. In fact the ECMWF forecast suggests that the
system will retain at least some frontal cyclone characteristics
through landfall. Nonetheless, the system is likely to cause
tropical-storm-force winds, locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous
storm surges over the warned areas in the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic United States. Interests should be aware that
hazardous conditions will extend well away from the forecast center
locations.

Key Messages:

1. An area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen off the
southeastern U.S. coast and bring tropical-storm-force winds, storm
surge, heavy rain, and high surf to large portions of the southeast
and mid-Atlantic United States coast beginning Friday and continuing
into the weekend.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia,
including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower
Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning
area beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday.

4. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 29.2N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/0600Z 30.8N 75.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 22/1800Z 32.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 23/0600Z 33.8N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 35.6N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 37.3N 76.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 38.7N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/1800Z 40.0N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 211759
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 75.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City NC to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
29.0 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to northward
motion is forecast by late Friday and that motion should continue
into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone
is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the
warning area Friday night and early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and
the system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it approaches
the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether the system
become a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring
tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and
mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City NC to Chincoteague VA...2-4 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point...2-4 ft
Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds...2-4 ft
South Santee River SC to Surf City NC 1-3 ft
Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and
spread northward Friday night and Saturday.

RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 6 inches, across the eastern
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey, Friday
through Sunday. This rainfall may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 211503
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

A broad non-tropical area of low pressure has formed well east of
the east coast of Florida this morning. Although this system is
forecast to remain non-tropical during the next 12-24 hours, the
dynamical model guidance indicates that it will likely acquire
tropical characteristics late Friday and early Saturday as it
approaches the coast of North Carolina. Although it is unclear as
to whether the cyclone detaches from a front that is forecast to
extend northeastward from the center, the guidance suggests a
tropical-cyclone like core and structure when it nears the coast.
As a result, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Sixteen to issue Tropical Storm Warnings and Storm Surge
Watches for portions of the coasts of North Carolina, Virginia and
Maryland. Winds associated with the front farther north are being
covered by non-tropical products issued by local National Weather
Service offices and the Ocean Prediction Center. Additional
tropical watches and warnings could be issued for other portions of
the Chesapeake Bay later today.

Since the low is still in its formative stage, the initial motion
estimate is a highly uncertain 360/8 kt. The model guidance
suggests that center reformations are likely to occur during the
next day or so, but the overall motion of the system is expected to
be a little east of due north. As the system interacts with a
mid-latitude trough that it becomes embedded within, a bend toward
the north-northwest is forecast. That motion should bring the
center over eastern North Carolina within the warning area Saturday
morning. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the various
global models that are in good agreement.

The system is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next 24
hours. After that time, the guidance suggests it is likely to form
a smaller inner core with additional strengthening expected until
the center reaches the coast. The NHC intensity forecast follows
the ECMWF and GFS models trends.

Key Messages:

1. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the
southeastern U.S. coast later today and will bring
tropical-storm-force winds, storm surge, heavy rain, and high surf
to large portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic United States
coast beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend.

2. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge
inundation from Surf City, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake Bay.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning
area beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday.

4. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban
and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic
states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 28.7N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 22/0000Z 30.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 22/1200Z 31.7N 75.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 23/0000Z 33.2N 75.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 23/1200Z 35.1N 76.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 24/0000Z 37.3N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 24/1200Z 38.8N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/1200Z 40.4N 71.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 211459
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...LOW PRESSURE AREA EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 75.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape Fear, North
Carolina, northward to Fenwick Island, Delaware, including
Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, and the Chesapeake Bay south of
Smith Point.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Surf City, North Carolina
to Chincoteague, Virginia, and the for the Chesapeake Bay south of
Smith Point, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City NC to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.7 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to
northward motion is forecast by late Friday and continue into
the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is
expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the warning
area Friday night and early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and the system
is forecast to become a tropical storm as it approaches the coast
of North Carolina. Regardless of whether the system become a
tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm
conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City NC to Chincoteague VA...2-4 ft
Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point...2-4 ft
Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds...2-4 ft
South Santee River SC to Surf City NC 1-3 ft
Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and
spread northward Friday night and Saturday.

RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with localized amounts of 6 inches, across the eastern
Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey, Friday
through Sunday. This rainfall may produce localized urban and small
stream flooding impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of
the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 211453
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
1500 UTC THU SEP 21 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 75.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 75.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 30.0N 75.5W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...210NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N 75.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...270NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 33.2N 75.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...380NE 90SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.1N 76.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...410NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 37.3N 76.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.8N 76.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 40.4N 71.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 75.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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