Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FOURTEEN-E-23
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 250232
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Significant deep convection associated with the depression
dissipated about 18 hours ago. Minor shower and thunderstorm
activity has been ongoing since earlier this afternoon just south of
the center, but it is not large enough in areal coverage to be
considered organized and it has recently been waning. The latest
Dvorak estimates are T1.0/2.0 from TAFB and Too Weak to Classify
from SAB, therefore the system is being declared a remnant low with
maximum winds of 25 kt.

The remnant low is expected to move westward or west-southwestward
at 12-14 kt within the trade wind flow during the next couple of
days. Strong northwesterly mid-level shear is currently affecting
the low, and the shear is expected to increase within a deeper layer
of the atmosphere over the next 24 hours. This, along with a dry
and subsident environment, should prevent significant deep
convection from redeveloping, although occasional bursts of
convection cannot be ruled out. The NHC forecast now shows the low
opening up into a trough and dissipating by 48 hours, although this
could occur sooner according to the GFS and ECMWF forecast surface
wind fields.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 25/1200Z 14.9N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0000Z 14.6N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 13.9N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 250231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 126.5W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 126.5
West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 14
mph (22 km/h). A westward or west-southwestward motion at a
similar forward speed is expected during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
but the low is expected to open up into a trough by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 250231
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023
0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 126.5W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 126.5W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.9N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.6N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.9N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 126.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 242038
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023

Moderate (15-20 kt) deep-layer shear and an enveloping dry and
stable low- to mid-level atmosphere have taken their toll
on the depression. The cyclone has lacked organized deep
convection since last night and primarily consists of a swirl of
low cloud elements, with deep convection well south of the surface
center associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a Dvorak CI number of 2.0
from TAFB. Despite warm waters ahead of the depression's track, the
negative environmental contributions mentioned above should cause
the depression to weaken further while impeding deep convective
redevelopment. Subsequently, the cyclone is expected to degenerate
to a remnant low later tonight and open into a trough in 4 days, or
less.

The exposed surface circulation's initial motion is estimated to be
westward or 270/13 kt. The forecast track philosophy is unchanged.
Mid-tropospheric high pressure extending from the Baja California
peninsula to the western tropical East Pacific should steer the
cyclone on a generally westward track through Monday. A turn
toward the west-southwest is expected on Tuesday within the
low-level tradewind steering flow through dissipation. The official
forecast is an update of the previous one and is based on the
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 15.2N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 15.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 14.7N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z 11.5N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 242037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 125.5W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 125.5
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this general motion should continue at a little faster
forward speed through Monday. A turn toward the west-southwest is
expected on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a remnant low tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 242037
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023
2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.5W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.5W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 124.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.7N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 11.5N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 241448
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
500 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023

...DEPRESSION CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC ...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 123.9W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 123.9
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24
km/h), and a generally westward motion at a little faster forward
speed is expected today followed by a turn toward the
west-southwest on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a remnant low early this week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 241440
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
500 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023

There's been little change in the depression's cloud pattern since
yesterday evening. Recent microwave and first visible conventional
satellite images depict a sheared tropical cyclone with the surface
center well north of the shapeless deep convection. The intensity
is held at 30 kt for this advisory and is based on the TAFB and SAB
satellite intensity estimates.

Although the depression is expected to track over warm oceanic
surface temperatures during the next few days, increasing wind shear
and an intruding dry and stable air mass should prevent the cyclone
from strengthening through the forecast period. Therefore, the new
official intensity forecast no longer indicates a short-term
intensification period, and now shows the depression degenerating to
a remnant low early this week, as suggested by the statistical
SHIPS intensity models and the global guidance.

The depression's initial motion is estimated to be westward or
280/13 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge extending from the Baja
California peninsula to the western tropical East Pacific should
steer the cyclone on a generally westward track through the 36-hour
period. Afterward, a turn toward the west-southwest is expected
while the vertically shallow depression moves through the low-level
tradewind flow through dissipation. The NHC forecast track is to
the right of the previous advisory due to the initial position
adjustment and lies between the HFIP HCCA and TVCE consensus
forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 15.2N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.2N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 15.1N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 14.7N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 14.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 13.3N 136.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z 12.6N 140.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z 10.8N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 241439
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 123.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 123.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.2N 126.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.1N 128.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.7N 131.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.1N 133.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.3N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.6N 140.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 10.8N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 240843
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 23 2023

The cyclone has not become significantly better organized over the
past several hours. Deep convection has been waxing and waning
near the estimated center and the system lacks distinct convective
banding features. Upper-level outflow is not very well defined at
this time. The current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt based
on Dvorak analyses from TAFB and SAB. Objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little higher, suggesting that the
cyclone may be a minimal tropical storm. However it is prudent to
wait for additional intensity estimates before upgrading the system.

Although the center fixes have some scatter, my best estimate of
initial motion is westward, or 280/12 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the system should maintain a generally westward track for
the next couple of days. The track model consensus shows a
slightly south of westward motion in the latter part of the forecast
period, Thus the official forecast has been nudged a little south of
the previous one in 2-4 days, but not as far south as the consensus
prediction.

Over the next day or so, the depression should remain over warm
waters and in an atmospheric environment of moderate vertical wind
shear with marginally moist mid-level humidities. Therefore some
modest short-term strengthening is predicted. Around 48 hours and
beyond, southwesterly shear should increase and this, along with
some drier air, is likely to halt the intensification process. The
system is likely to gradually weaken in 2 to 4 days and, in fact,
the global models show the system degenerating into a trough within
4 days. The official forecast, like the previous one, shows the
system becoming a remnant low in 96 hours. However it is possible
that the cyclone may not last as long as that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.3N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 14.7N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 14.6N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 13.6N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 13.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 11.8N 144.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 240841
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 23 2023

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 122.4W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 122.4
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22
km/h), and a generally westward motion at a little faster forward
speed is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight intensification is forecast, and the system is
likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 240840
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 122.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 122.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 121.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 126.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.6N 129.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.6N 135.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 11.8N 144.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 122.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 240235
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
500 PM HST Sat Sep 23 2023

The depression has changed little since the last advisory. Deep
convection, with cold cloud tops below -80 degree C, have been
forming near the estimated low-level center for the past several
hours. Microwave imagery still shows a curved band in the southern
portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt,
closest to the TAFB Dvorak classification.

Current atmospheric and oceanic conditions suggest the depression
could strengthen during the next several days. The majority of the
guidance shows gradual strengthening, even with a low-to-moderate
vertical wind shear environment. As mentioned previously though,
global models do not appear to be capturing the initial state of
this system well, making the short-term forecast slightly less
certain. By day 2, the upper-level winds are expected to increase
through the end of the forecast period which should limit
intensification. At 96 h, the cyclone should move into an area of
higher wind shear and dry mid-level relative humidities which are
expected to weaken the system into a post-tropical remnant low, and
then open into a trough by day 5.

The depression is moving westward at 13 kt. A mid-level ridge
centered over central Mexico should keep the cyclone on a general
westward trajectory through the entire forecast period. The latest
NHC track forecast shifted slightly south of the previous forecast
and lies just north of the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 13.9N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.3N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 14.5N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 14.5N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 14.4N 131.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 14.0N 134.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 13.6N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 13.1N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 240235
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
500 PM HST Sat Sep 23 2023

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 121.7W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 121.7
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight intensification is expected during the next couple of days.
The system is forecast become a tropical storm by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 240234
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 121.7W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 121.7W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 121.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.3N 123.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 126.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.5N 129.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.4N 131.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.0N 134.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.6N 137.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 13.1N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 121.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 232039
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023

An area of disturbed weather located well southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula became rapidly better organized
this morning. SSMIS microwave imagery at 1427 UTC showed that deep
convection had organized into a very well-defined band, with what
appeared to be a developing low-level center just to the north of
the convection. Since then, 1-minute visible GOES-18 has been very
helpful in confirming the development of a well-defined surface
circulation. Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E. The initial maximum sustained wind estimate
is highly uncertain, but is based on a 30 kt Dvorak current
intensity analysis from TAFB.

The depression appears to be quite small, and is therefore not being
well-resolved by most global models. The center of the cyclone
appears to be just north of a tight band of deep convection. Its
small size and an expected moderate shear environment could make the
cyclone susceptible to rapid changes in intensity that are difficult
to anticipate. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than
the model consensus for the next 48 h, most similar to the DSHP
model, but still shows only slight strengthening during that time
frame. After about 72 h, wind shear is expected to increase quickly,
which should cause the small cyclone to weaken. The system is
subsequently expected to dissipate into a trough after about 4 days.

The initial motion estimate is west at 12 kt. An extensive ridge
extending over most of the eastern North Pacific should keep the
depression on a similar heading for the next 4 days until the system
dissipates. Although the strength of the depression does not appear
to be captured well by the global models, they do appear to have
very reasonable track forecasts that are in good agreement with one
another. The initial NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
average-spread guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 13.9N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.3N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 14.7N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 14.9N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 14.3N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 14.0N 142.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 232038
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 23 2023

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 120.4W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 120.4
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight intensification is expected during the next couple of days.
The system could become a tropical storm as soon as this afternoon
or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 232038
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 120.4W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 120.4W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 119.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.3N 122.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.7N 125.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.9N 130.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.3N 136.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 14.0N 142.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 120.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



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