Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for ALBERTO-24
in Guatemala, Mexico, United States, Belize

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 202043
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Alberto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Satellite imagery depicts deep convection continues to produce heavy
rainfall over the higher terrain in Mexico. Satellite data and
limited surface observations depict that the circulation of Alberto
has dissipated. Thus, the system is no longer a tropical cyclone,
and this is the last advisory. The winds are set to 25 kt with this
advisory, based off average inland decay and surface observations.

The remnants of Alberto will continue to produce heavy rainfall
over northeastern Mexico with life-threatening flooding and
mudslides likely.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Key Messages:

1. Rainfall associated with Alberto will continue to diminish
tonight across southern Texas. However, heavy rainfall will continue
to impact northeastern Mexico, and Life-threatening flooding and
mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the
Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including
the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria.

2. Water levels remain elevated along the Texas coast but will begin
to subside through tonight.

3. Swells generated by the remnants of Alberto will continue to
affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday.
These swells are producing life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 22.3N 102.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 202042
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Alberto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO HAS DISSIPATED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 102.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SW OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Alberto were located near
latitude 22.3 North, longitude 102.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Alberto will continue to diminish
across southern Texas tonight, with additional rainfall totals
generally 1 inch or less. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact
northeast Mexico today, with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches
expected. Maximum rainfall totals around 20 inches are possible
across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo
Leon, and Tamaulipas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Texas coast
but will begin to subside through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 202042
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
2100 UTC THU JUN 20 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 102.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 102.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 100.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 102.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 201441
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...ALBERTO WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 99.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings in Mexico have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Alberto
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 99.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through today, as Alberto moves
farther inland over Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Alberto is expected to continue weakening as it moves inland, and
the system is likely to dissipate over Mexico later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Alberto is
expected to begin to diminish across southern Texas today, with
additional rainfall totals generally 1 inch or less. Heavy rainfall
will continue to impact northeast Mexico today, with rainfall totals
of 5 to 10 inches expected. Maximum rainfall totals around 20
inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states
of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Alberto, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern
Mexico in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible in portions of southern Texas and
northern Mexico through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 201442
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Alberto made landfall earlier this morning near Tampico, Mexico.
Satellite imagery depicts deep convection producing heavy rainfall
over the higher terrain in Mexico. The center of the system has
become more difficult to track, and is more ill-defined, as it
moves inland. Given the lack of tropical-storm-force wind
observations along the coast and the average decay over land, the
intensity for this advisory is set to 30 kt. Therefore, Alberto has
weakened into a tropical depression.

The depression will continue to move quickly westward steered by a
deep-layer ridge to the north. The system is moving farther inland
over northern Mexico, and is forecast to continue to weaken over
the higher terrain. A 12-hour forecast point is shown for
continuity, with global model fields depicting the system
dissipating later today.

Alberto remains a large system and continues to produce moderate
coastal flooding across portions of southern Texas, given the
onshore wind flow. Heavy rainfall associated with Alberto will
continue to impact northeastern Mexico throughout the day today,
with considerable flash and urban flooding likely.

Key Messages:

1. Rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Alberto will begin
to diminish today across southern Texas. However, heavy rainfall
will continue to impact northeastern Mexico, and life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher
terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria.

2. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through today's high tide, subsiding later this afternoon.

3. Swells generated by Alberto are affecting the coast of Texas and
northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are producing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 22.3N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/0000Z 22.1N 102.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 201441
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
1500 UTC THU JUN 20 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 99.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 99.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 98.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.1N 102.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 99.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 201148
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
700 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...ALBERTO MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 98.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Tecolutla.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through
this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 98.3 West. Alberto is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through today, as Alberto moves further inland
over Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is anticipated as Alberto continues to move inland, and
the storm is likely to dissipate over Mexico later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 250 miles (400 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto is
expected to begin to diminish across southern Texas during the day,
with additional rainfall totals of 1 inch or less expected. Heavy
rainfall will continue to impact northeast Mexico through this
morning, with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches expected. Maximum
rainfall totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher
terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash
and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern
Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur this morning across parts
of Deep South Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200843
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Alberto is nearing landfall in Mexico this morning. On satellite,
the system has evolved markedly from yesterday, with some rather
cold cloud tops below -80 C associated with nearby deep convection
just to the south of the center. However, an earlier GPM microwave
pass and nighttime shortwave-IR imagery suggests the broad center is
partially exposed north of bursting convection due to a bit of
northeasterly shear. The final Air Force Reserve recon leg through
the center overnight found peak 850 mb winds of 55 kt and SFMR winds
between 45-50 kt. A blend of this data still supports an intensity
of 45 kt. Scatterometer imagery received since the prior advisory
suggests the wind radii have contracted some, but the circulation
center remains fairly broad.

The overnight recon center fixes jumped around a bit, yet Alberto
appears to still be on a westward heading, but moving a little
faster, estimated at 275/11 kt. Deep-layer ridging positioned to the
north of Alberto is building westward and should maintain this storm
motion with some additional acceleration. Thus, Alberto is expected
to make landfall along the coast of Mexico shortly. The time for
additional intensification is just about over, and the tropical
storm should quickly weaken over the higher terrain of Mexico, with
dissipation likely in 24 h, if not sooner.

Alberto remains a large system and continues to produce moderate
coastal flooding across portions of southern Texas. Tropical-storm
conditions and heavy rainfall also will continue for northeastern
Mexico, even as Alberto moves inland later today.

Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of
Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will begin to
diminish today across southern Texas. Rainfall associated with
Alberto, however, will continue to impact large regions of Central
America, north across northeastern Mexico. This rainfall will
likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new
and renewed river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides
are likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican
states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities
of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through the morning.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area
though this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 22.3N 97.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 22.1N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200841
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
0900 UTC THU JUN 20 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 97.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 60SE 60SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 30SE 0SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 97.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 96.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.1N 100.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 97.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...ALBERTO NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STARTING TO SUBSIDE FOR THE TEXAS
COAST, BUT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 97.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning in Texas from San Luis Pass southward to
the mouth of the Rio Grande has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Tecolutla.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through
this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 97.3 West. Alberto is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through today, and on this track, the center of
Alberto should move inland over Mexico shortly.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is anticipated after Alberto moves onshore and the storm
is likely to dissipate over Mexico later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto is
expected to begin to diminish across southern Texas during the day,
with additional rainfall totals of 1 inch or less expected. Heavy
rainfall will continue to impact northeast Mexico through this
morning, with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches expected. Maximum
rainfall totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher
terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash
and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern
Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur this morning across parts
of Deep South Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200542
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
100 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...ALBERTO APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 96.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande.
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Tecolutla.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 96.1 West. Alberto is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so. On this track, the center of
Alberto is expected to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico later this
morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center
of Alberto reaches land later this morning. Weakening is expected
after the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate
over Mexico later today or tonight.

Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 460 miles (740 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas.
Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher
terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides
are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast
Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern
Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this morning.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across parts of
Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200249
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...ALBERTO STRENGTHENING...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 95.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande.
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Tecolutla.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. Alberto is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so. On this track, the
center of Alberto is expected to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico
early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts based on data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight
before the center of Alberto reaches land. Weakening is expected
once the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate
over Mexico on Thursday or Thursday night.

Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 460 miles (740 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas.
Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher
terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides
are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast
Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern
Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across parts of
Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200250
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Alberto is gradually becoming better organized this evening.
Satellite and microwave imagery shows a band curving around the
southern side of the center near areas of deep convection. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating the
storm measured surface wind speeds of 43 kt and peak flight-level
winds of 61 kt, with a much smaller radius-of-maximum winds than the
previous mission. The intensity is set to 45 kt.

The recent storm motion is generally westward at 8 kt. Model
guidance insists Alberto will continue westward and accelerate as a
ridge centered over the eastern United States builds over the area.
The track guidance remains tightly clustered and predicts the
center of the storm will reach the coast of Mexico overnight. Prior
to moving inland, there is still a possibility that Alberto will
slightly strengthen. The forecast now shows the storm dissipating
over the mountains of Mexico in 24 hours.

It is important to understand that Alberto is a large system and
continues to produce heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding, and
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of southern Texas and
northeastern Mexico far from the storm center. It is also worth
noting that the official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of
strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of
Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected overnight along portions
of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 21.5N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.7N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200249
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 95.9W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......400NE 50SE 40SW 400NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 0SE 0SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 95.9W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 95.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.7N 98.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...300NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 95.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 192348
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
700 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 95.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande.
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Tecolutla.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was
estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data near
latitude 21.7 North, longitude 95.6 West. Alberto is moving toward
the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), but a westward motion is
expected to resume soon and continue for the next day or so. On
this track, the center of Alberto is expected to reach the Gulf
coast of Mexico early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight before the
center of Alberto reaches land. Weakening is expected once the
center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate over Mexico
Thursday or Thursday night.

Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 415 miles (665 km) north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas.
Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher
terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides
are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast
Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern
Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 192036
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

There hasn't been much additional data to help assess the structure
of Alberto since the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
departed the system a few hours ago. However, recent satellite
images and data from NOAA buoy 42055 suggest that the center may
have re-formed a bit to the southwest since this morning. Another
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this evening. For now, the maximum winds remain 35 kt.

Because of the re-formation of the center, the recent motion has
been west-southwestward, or 250/8 kt. However, Alberto is expected
to resume a westward motion and speed up over the next 24 hours as
a mid-level ridge over the eastern U.S. builds westward. The track
guidance is in good agreement that Alberto's center will reach the
coast of Mexico early Thursday, and the NHC track forecast is close
to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA models. Some slight strengthening
is still possible through tonight while Alberto remains over water,
and the NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity of
about 40 kt. The circulation could dissipate over the mountains of
Mexico as soon as 24 hours from now, but for continuity a 24-hour
forecast is provided with dissipation shown at 36 hours.

More importantly, because of Alberto's large size, it will continue
to produce heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding, and
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of southern Texas and
northeastern Mexico regardless of its exact track. It is worth
noting that the official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of
strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of
Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 21.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 22.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 192035
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
2100 UTC WED JUN 19 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 95.3W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 95.3W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 94.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...300NE 90SE 0SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.1N 100.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 95.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 192035
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...ALBERTO'S CENTER EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO EARLY
THURSDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Tecolutla.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 95.3 West. Alberto is
moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), but a
westward motion is expected to resume soon and continue for the
next day or so. On this track, the center of Alberto is expected
to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible this evening or tonight before
the center of Alberto reaches land. Weakening is expected once the
center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate over Mexico
Thursday or Thursday night.

Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 415 miles (665 km) north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas.
Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher
terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides
are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast
Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern
Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 191746
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
100 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...ALBERTO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ALONG
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 95.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Tecolutla.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 95.1 West. Alberto is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Alberto will reach the coast of
northeastern Mexico early Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast today or tonight before
the center of Alberto reaches land. Rapid weakening is expected
once the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate
over Mexico Thursday or Thursday night.

Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 415 miles (665 km) north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas.
Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher
terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides
are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast
Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern
Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today through early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today and tonight
across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 191611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.06.2024

TROPICAL STORM 01L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 94.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.06.2024 21.9N 94.5W MODERATE
00UTC 20.06.2024 22.5N 95.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2024 22.9N 98.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191611


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 191611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.06.2024

TROPICAL STORM 01L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 94.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.06.2024 0 21.9N 94.5W 998 31
0000UTC 20.06.2024 12 22.5N 95.8W 997 35
1200UTC 20.06.2024 24 22.9N 98.7W 999 36
0000UTC 21.06.2024 36 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191611


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 191448
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
and NOAA buoy 42055 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico indicate
that the system has developed a well-defined center of circulation.
In addition, deep convection has formed near the center, as well as
within a band extending 200 n mi to the southeast of the center.
This convection is classifiable via the Dvorak technique. The
system meets the necessary requirements of being a tropical cyclone
and is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Alberto.
Aircraft and surface observations suggest the maximum winds remain
about 35 kt, but the central pressure has dropped to about 995 mb
according to the dropsonde data. Some of the dropsonde and oil
rig data in the northwestern Gulf indicate that stronger winds are
located not too far above the ocean surface, but the environment
appears too stable for sustained winds of that magnitude to mix
efficiently down to the surface. Still, this could mean that gusty
winds affect much of South Texas as the convective activity moves
inland through the day.

Alberto may have jogged a bit south now that a more defined center
has become apparent, but the general motion remains westward, or
270/8 kt. This westward motion is expected to continue for the
next day or two while mid-level ridging over the eastern U.S.
builds westward, and the track models all agree that the center of
Alberto should be inland over northeastern Mexico by this time
Thursday morning.

Alberto has a chance to strengthen within a favorable environment
of low vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures of about 30
degrees Celsius. However, the broad circulation will still likely
limit the amount of strengthening that can occur, and the NHC
forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 40 kt before the
storm reaches land. There is some possibility of slight
strengthening beyond that level, as suggested by the GFS and HAFS-B
models. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast on Thursday.
A 36-hour forecast point as a remnant low is shown mostly for
continuity, but in all likelihood the system will have dissipated
over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by then.

Regardless of Alberto's exact track, this system will have a large
area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the
coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 22.2N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 22.3N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0000Z 22.4N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 191448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ALONG
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 95.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
southward to Tecolutla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Tecolutla.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 95.0 West. Alberto is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Alberto will reach the coast of
northeastern Mexico early Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast today or tonight before the
center of Alberto reaches land. Rapid weakening is expected once
the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate over
Mexico Thursday or Thursday night.

Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 415 miles (665 km) north of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 995 mb
(29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas.
Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher
terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides
are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast
Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern
Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today through early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today and tonight
across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 191447
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
1500 UTC WED JUN 19 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 95.0W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 95.0W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 94.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 22.2N 96.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...360NE 90SE 0SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.3N 98.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.4N 101.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 95.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 191149
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
700 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...DISTURBANCE LUMBERING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 94.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.7 North, longitude 94.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A generally westward motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or
so, and the system is forecast to reach the coast of northeastern
Mexico by late tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is possible before the system
reaches the coast. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical
storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) to the north of the center.
A WeatherFlow station at Matagorda Bay, Texas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The minimum central pressure, based on data from NOAA buoy 42055,
is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

A National Ocean Service tide station at San Luis Pass, Texas,
recently reported a water level of 3.8 ft above Mean Higher High
Water.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall
will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along
with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today and tonight
across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thursday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 190838
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Dropsonde observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation of the system is
gradually becoming better defined. However, the central convection
remains rather meager and the system's cloud pattern is still not
classifiable via the Dvorak technique. Therefore the disturbance
still does not meet the requirements of a tropical cyclone and will
continue to be designated as a potential tropical cyclone at this
time. Nonetheless, since the system appears to be on its way to
developing a well-defined center, it is expected to become a
tropical cyclone later today. This also suggested by simulated
satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models that depict
increasing and organized deep convection near the center as it
nears the coastline.

The system is turning westward and the current motion is around
285/7 kt. A mid-level ridge extending west-southwestward from a
strong high over the eastern United States should force the
disturbance to move on a westward path with increasing forward
speed. The track model guidance and model consensus are in good
agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is
similar to the previous NHC track, albeit a bit faster.

The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt based on
non-elevated surface observations over the Gulf. Environmental
conditions, such as warm SSTs and low vertical shear, appear to
favor some intensification before landfall. However, the inner
circulation is likely to remain somewhat broad, limiting
strengthening. The official intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one and in good agreement with the statistical-dynamical
Decay-SHIPS guidance.

Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a
large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely
in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of
Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities of
Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 22.7N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/1800Z 22.7N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 20/0600Z 22.7N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/1800Z 22.7N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 190837
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
0900 UTC WED JUN 19 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 93.8W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 93.8W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 93.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.7N 95.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.7N 97.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.7N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 93.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 190837
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 93.8W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.7 North, longitude 93.8 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A generally westward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so, and the system is forecast to reach the coast of
northeastern Mexico by late tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is possible before the system
reaches the coast. The disturbance is forecast to become
a tropical storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall
will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along
with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible
in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today and tonight
across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thursday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 190538
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
100 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE
COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 93.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.6 North, longitude 93.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west with an
increase in forward speed is expected later today, and the system is
forecast to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico by late tonight
or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is possible during the next 36
hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across parts
of Deep South Texas into Southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thursday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 190238
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Satellite images show little change with the low during the past
several hours. Air Force Reserve dropsonde data indicate that the
strongest winds remain hundreds of miles north of the center, with a
large area of lighter winds in the circulation center. While
there has been some increase in convection near the estimated
center, the system still doesn't meet the requirements of a tropical
cyclone. The official designation of a named storm or not is
almost academic at this point, with almost all of the significant
hazards well north of the center.

The system has turned northwestward tonight at about 6 kt. A
mid-level ridge over the eastern United States is forecast to build
southwestward, forcing the disturbance to turn westward and
accelerate toward the coast of Mexico overnight and on Wednesday.
Guidance has trended southward since the last advisory, and the
official track forecast is nudged that way.

Global models continue to suggest that the circulation will
gradually consolidate over the next 24 hours, and transition to a
tropical storm is shown then. Only modest intensification is
forecast before the center reaches land due to the continued broad
nature of the circulation. Little change was made to the previous
wind speed forecast.

Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a
large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely
in areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila and
Nuevo Leon, including the city of Monterrey.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin overnight or on
Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass
and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the
Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 22.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/1200Z 22.7N 94.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 20/0000Z 22.8N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/1200Z 22.9N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0000Z 23.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 190237
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
0300 UTC WED JUN 19 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 93.0W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 93.0W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 92.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.7N 94.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 22.8N 96.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.9N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 93.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 190237
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL, COASTAL FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ALONG
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 93.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 22.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west
with an increase in forward speed is expected overnight and on
Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the coast of
northeastern Mexico by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is possible during the next 36
hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area overnight or Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible Wednesday across
parts of Deep South Texas into Southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thursday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 182334
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL, COASTAL FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 92.8W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.4 North, longitude 92.8 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
and west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and
on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of
Mexico by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is possible during the next 36
hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by tonight or Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Wednesday across parts
of Deep South into southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thursday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 182032
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Air Force Reserve and scatterometer data show that the disturbance
consists of a large northwest-to-southeast-oriented circulation
with a 150-250-n mi wide area of light winds and a broad minimum in
pressure. The scatterometer data also revealed that the strongest
winds--30 to 35 kt--are located about 360 n mi north of the
estimated center. With the continued lack of a well-defined center
and little central convection, the system is still being designated
as a potential tropical cyclone at this time.

The system is moving generally northward, or 360/5 kt. A mid-level
ridge over the eastern United States is forecast to build
southwestward, forcing the disturbance to turn westward and
accelerate toward the coast of Mexico tonight and on Wednesday.
The model trackers appear to be too fast relative to the model
fields themselves. As a result, the NHC official track forecast is
slower than deterministic and consensus trackers, and brings the
center of the system to the coast of Mexico in about 36 hours.
This could still be a little fast since the global models have the
center just offshore of Mexico at that time.

Global model fields suggest that the circulation will gradually
consolidate over the next 24 hours, and the center could be well
defined enough by then to designate the system as a tropical
cyclone. Even if that occurs, only modest intensification is
forecast before the center reaches land due to the continued broad
nature of the circulation. The most aggressive intensity models
peak the intensity between 40-45 kt, and the NHC forecast is within
that range.

Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a
large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely
in areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila and
Nuevo Leon, including the city of Monterrey.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin tonight or
Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass
and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the
Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 22.1N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/0600Z 22.7N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/0600Z 23.3N 97.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE MEXICO COAST
48H 20/1800Z 23.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 182031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 92.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
Texas coast to San Luis Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.1 North, longitude 92.7 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west
with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on
Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of
Mexico by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some increase in strength is possible during the next 36 hours,
and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by tonight or Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Wednesday across parts
of Deep South into southeast Texas.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thursday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 182031
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
2100 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.7W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.7W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.7N 93.9W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.3N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.3N 100.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 92.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 181757
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...DISTURBANCE REMAINS LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 92.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 92.6 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
and west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and
on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of
Mexico by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours,
and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large, and satellite-derived wind data
indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415
miles (665 km) north of the center.

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde
data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by tonight or Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur across parts of Deep
South Texas on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through Wednesday night. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 181611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.06.2024

TROPICAL STORM 01L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 90.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.06.2024 0 21.0N 90.7W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.06.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181610


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 181611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.06.2024

TROPICAL STORM 01L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 90.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.06.2024 21.0N 90.7W WEAK
00UTC 19.06.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181610


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 181449
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The disturbance's overall envelope is becoming slightly better
defined, although there is still no evidence that a well-defined
center of circulation has developed. Deep convection is increasing
somewhat near the estimated center, but the most widespread
activity is blossoming farther north over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. The system is still being designated as a potential
tropical cyclone with 35-kt winds, and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is currently surveying the system's wind
field to assess its structure.

The disturbance is moving generally northward, or 005/6 kt,
although the centroid of the cloud pattern suggests it may have
jogged east a bit. A continued slow motion is expected through
tonight as the system gradually consolidates, but a turn toward the
west with an increase in forward speed is forecast Wednesday and
Wednesday night due to a mid-level ridge building southwestward
over the southeastern United States. The updated NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one during the first 24 hours,
but is then a bit faster after that, trending toward the HCCA and
TVCA consensus aids.

The system's broad nature will continue to inhibit significant
strengthening despite otherwise conducive environmental conditions.
Global model fields suggest the circulation will tighten up and
develop a well-defined center on Wednesday while the system
approaches the coast of Mexico. Intensification becomes more of a
possibility at that point, and gradual strengthening is forecast on
Wednesday while the system approaches the coast.

It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the
low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains,
moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north
of the center. The official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric
area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning today and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin tonight or
Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of Port O’Connor
and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the
Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 21.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/0000Z 22.5N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 19/1200Z 23.0N 95.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/0000Z 23.3N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 20/1200Z 23.3N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 181449
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
1500 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 0SE 0SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 92.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 93.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...300NE 0SE 0SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.0N 95.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.3N 97.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...360NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.3N 100.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 92.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 181449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING
TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 92.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 21.8 North, longitude 92.7 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
and west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and
on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of
Mexico by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and
the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by tonight or Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur across parts of Deep
South Texas on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through Wednesday night. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 181142
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 92.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for
the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.5 North, longitude 92.8 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest
and west is expected is expected tonight and Wednesday, and the
system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36
hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 180848
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The system has not become better organized over the past few hours,
with limited central deep convection and the strongest thunderstorm
activity near the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. The cloud pattern is
still not classifiable via the Dvorak technique. ASCAT
scatterometer data indicated that the inner circulation was still
not well organized, with a broad area of light winds near the
estimated center. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center
it will continue to be designated as a potential tropical cyclone.
An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate
the system later this morning to assess whether the circulation is
becoming better defined.

Although there is significant uncertainty in the center location,
my best guess of initial motion is northward near 5 kt. This
general motion is likely to continue into tonight, followed by a
gradual westward turn due to a mid-level ridge building over the
northern Gulf Coast. On this track, the center will be near
northeastern Mexico by late Wednesday. The official forecast track
is slightly south of, and a bit faster than, the previous one and
close to the latest model consensus.

Based on NOAA buoy data, the intensity remains near 35 kt. The
system has a large upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern
associated with it, and is situated over warm waters with light
vertical shear. These conditions would favor strengthening but the
lack of a well-defined inner core is inhibiting intensification.
Assuming that the inner circulation becomes better established
during the next day or so, some increase in strength is forecast up
to landfall.

It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the
low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains,
moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north
of the center. The official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric
area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico
and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
Central America into northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning this morning and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Wednesday over
portions of the Texas coast south of Port OConnor, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect, and over portions of northeastern
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 21.3N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/1800Z 22.0N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 19/0600Z 22.7N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 19/1800Z 23.2N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 20/0600Z 23.3N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1800Z 23.5N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 180848
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 93.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Texas coast from Port O'Connor
southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.3 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest and west is expected is expected tonight and
Wednesday, and the system is likely to approach the western Gulf
coast late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36
hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm
by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 180847
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
0900 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 93.0W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 93.0W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 93.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 93.1W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.7N 94.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.2N 96.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.3N 98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.5N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 93.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 180531
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
100 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS
LIKELY TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.0W
ABOUT 360 MI...585 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.0 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight or Wednesday, and the system is likely to approach
the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall
will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and
renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of
higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 180248
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Satellite images show the large spinning low pressure area centered
over the Bay of Campeche, with lots of convective banding noted
over Yucatan. While dropsondes from an earlier Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter survey mission showed that the pressure had
fallen to about 999 mb, there are still no signs of a well-defined
center, with multiple smaller circulations within the larger gyre.
Thus, the low remains a potential tropical cyclone for this
advisory.

The system has been moving northward at about 6 kt. This general
motion should continue for a day or so, followed by a
west-northwestward turn due to a mid-level ridge building over the
northern Gulf Coast, bringing the low near northeastern Mexico
in a couple of days. The model guidance is in good agreement on
this track, and little change was made to the previous forecast,
with the latest NHC track lying a bit north of the model consensus.

While the low pressure area remains quite broad, a fair number of
the regional hurricane models are suggestive that low could
eventually contract in a low-shear, very warm water environment.
This isn't too difficult to believe as the overall circulation
looks better organized than earlier today, but will likely take
some time to strengthen due to the sprawling nature of the
disturbance. Model guidance has trended upward since the last
cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
last one.

It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the
low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains,
moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north
of the center. The official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the aclimatologically large and asymmetric
area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico
and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
Central America into northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over
portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port
O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 20.8N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/1200Z 21.6N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 19/0000Z 22.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 19/1200Z 23.2N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 20/0000Z 23.5N 96.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 20/1200Z 23.7N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/0000Z 23.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 180247
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING
IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 93.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
southward to Puerto de Altamira.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 20.8 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and the
system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm
by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall
will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and
renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of
higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 180246
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
0300 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 93.0W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 93.0W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 93.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.6N 92.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.6N 93.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.2N 95.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N 96.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.7N 98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.8N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 93.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 172335
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
700 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...SYSTEM FORECAST TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING
IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 93.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...620 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Boca de Catan.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was
centered near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system
is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday,
and system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to to become a tropical storm
by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into
southeastern Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with
new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 172126 CCA
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
2100 UTC MON JUN 17 2024

CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 93.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 93.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 93.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 93.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 172119 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Corrected time of next intermediate advisory

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from
Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande
to Boca de Catan.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Texas and northeastern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings may be required tonight and on Tuesday.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Boca de Catan.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and system
is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is
forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico
into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with
new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate adviosry at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 172054
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Satellite, surface, and aircraft data show that the center of
the large low pressure area is over the Bay of Campeche with a
central pressure near 1001 mb. The system currently does not have
the structure of a tropical cyclone, as the associated convection
is poorly organized and the maximum winds are located about
200-250 n mi northeast of the center. The various global models
forecast this band of stronger winds to start moving onto the
western Gulf coast on Wednesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is
required at this time. Thus, advisories are being initiated on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

The initial motion is 345/6. This general motion should continue
for the next 24 h or so, although there could be some erratic
motion due to center reformation. After that, the cyclone is
expected to turn west-northwestward and westward on the south side
of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern Gulf coast. This
should steer the system into northeastern Mexico between 48-72 h.
While there are differences in details due to the disorganized
nature of the system, the track guidance is in good agreement on
this general scenario.

The global models suggest that some deepening of the central
pressure could occur, although none of them currently forecast the
system to tighten up into a classic tropical cyclone. Based on
that, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening.
There is a chance than a small-scale vorticity center inside the
large cyclonic envelope may develop enough convection to form a
tighter wind core as suggested by the GFS, and based on this
possibility the forecast has the system becoming a tropical storm in
about 36 h. However, there is a chance the system will never
become a tropical cyclone.

Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico
and southeastern Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over
portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port
O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 20.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 172048
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024
2100 UTC MON JUN 17 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 93.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 93.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 93.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 93.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 172048
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from
Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande
to Boca de Catan.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Texas and northeastern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings may be required tonight and on Tuesday.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Boca de Catan.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and system
is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is
forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico
into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with
new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven