Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for CARLOTTA-24
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 060241
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Remaining deep convection associated with Carlotta has been
intermittent and distant from the fully exposed circulation center.
This is not surprising considering that Carlotta is moving over sea
surface temperatures near 24C with vertical shear near 30 kt.
Initial intensity estimates ranged from the ADT's 25 kt to CIMSS
SATCON's 36 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory has been
held at 35 kt based on the SATCON estimate.

While there may be intermittent flare-ups of deep convection over
the next day or so, reintensification under these environmental
conditions is not likely. As a result, Carlotta has been declared a
post-tropical cyclone. The remnant circulation of Carlotta
should continue to spin down and the global and hi-res hurricane
models open up the circulation into a trough around the middle of
the week.

This is the last advisory on this system. For additional information
on the post-tropical cyclone, please see the High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI,
WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 20.6N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 06/1200Z 20.6N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0000Z 20.2N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 19.6N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 19.1N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 060236
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 128.5W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Carlotta was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 128.5 West.
Carlotta is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and is
expected to turn toward the west-southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The weakening trend will continue, and the system is forecast to
dissipate around Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued on this system. For
additional information on the Post-Tropical Cyclone please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Kodama



Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 060232
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 128.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 128.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 128.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.6N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.1N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 128.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA




Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 052044
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Carlotta continues to struggle within hostile environmental
conditions, with sea surface temperatures below 25C and significant
vertical shear. The center of the tropical cyclone is fully exposed,
with the remaining deep convection confined to an outer rainband in
its northern quadrant. The TAFB intensity estimate was 35 kt, CIMSS
ADT was 25 kt, and CIMSS AiDT was 32 kt. The initial intensity for
this advisory is a conservative 35 kt.

Carlotta should continue to spin down as it moves over cool sea
surface temperatures and remains within significant vertical shear.
If current trends continue, and persistent deep convection does not
redevelop, post-tropical cyclone status will occur soon.

The initial motion for Carlotta is 280/7 kt. This general motion
should continue for the rest of today, then should turn toward the
west-southwest as Carlotta's circulation becomes increasingly
shallow. This scenario is consistent with the objective aids. The
forecast track for this advisory reflects a slight northward
adjustment from the previous advisory and is close to the dynamical
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 20.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 20.7N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 20.4N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 19.9N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 19.3N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 052040
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...CARLOTTA WEAKENING UNDER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 127.8W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 127.8 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and is expected to turn
toward the west-southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Carlotta is expected to weaken and become a post-tropical low
at any time, and is forecast to dissipate near the middle of this
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kodama



Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 052035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 127.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 127.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 127.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 128.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.4N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.9N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.3N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 127.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA




Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 051446
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

If not for a recent small burst of convection nearly 60 n mi from
its center, Carlotta would be devoid of organized deep convection.
The intensity estimate remains 40 kt, close to a recent UW-CIMSS
SATCON estimate. Deep convection may persist today, but could cease
at just about any time due to cold waters beneath Carlotta and a
surounding dry and stable environment. By this time tomorrow,
Carlotta should be a post-tropical cyclone.

Carlotta's initial motion remains 280/8kt. This general motion
should continue today as long as Carlotta maintains some deep
convection. A slight left turn toward the west-southwest should
begin once the last of Carlotta's convection is gone. No significant
changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 20.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 20.5N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 20.3N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0000Z 19.8N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z 19.3N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 051446
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 127.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 120SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 127.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 128.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.3N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.8N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 127.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY




Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 051446
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...CARLOTTA COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 127.2W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1805 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 127.2 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected today. A
west-southwestward motion is expected on Tuesday until Carlotta
dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening is
expected. Carlotta could become a post-tropical low at any time and
is forecast to dissipate near the middle of this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 050834
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

A diminishing area of fragmented moderate convection is all that
remains of Carlotta's cloud pattern this morning. The advisory's
initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt and is just above the
consensus of the various UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance.
Carlotta should continue to spin down through the period gradually
and could become a post-tropical cyclone later today if these
convective trends continue. If not, the cyclone is forecast to
become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the
week, which is shown explicitly in the NHC intensity forecast.

Carlotta's initial motion is estimated to be a little to the right
of due west or 280/8 kt, and is forecast to continue moving in
this general direction today. Through the remainder of the period,
Carlotta should slow some in forward speed while turning toward the
west-southwest on Tuesday and degenerating into a post-tropical
remnant low. Dissipation is forecast to occur during the next
couple of days while the remnant low traverses cooler sea surface
temperatures and moves through a dry/stable marine-layer air mass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 20.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.3N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 20.4N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 20.2N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 19.8N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 050833
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 126.5W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 105SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 126.5W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 127.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.4N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.2N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.8N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 126.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 050833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 126.5W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 126.5 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Carlotta
is expected to become a remnant low on Tuesday, or could become
post-tropical cyclone later today. Dissipation of the cyclone is
forecast by the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 050233
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Conventional satellite imagery shows only a few fragments of deep
convection remaining this evening, just to the northeast of the
surface circulation center. Consequently, the cyclone is too weak
to classify based on the Dvorak satellite intensity technique. The
initial intensity is based on a blend of the UW-CIMSS objective
current intensity guidance, which yields 45 kt.

Carlotta's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/8 kt, and should continue moving in this trajectory with
some increase in forward speed during the next day or so.
Afterward, the cyclone is expected to slow down a bit while turning
west-southwestward on Tuesday as it weakens further and becomes a
post-tropical remnant low. Dissipation is forecast to occur in 60
hours, or possibly sooner, while the remnant low moves over cooler
water and through a dry/stable air mass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.1N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 20.3N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 20.5N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 20.2N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 050232
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 125.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 105SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 125.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 125.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.3N 126.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 125.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 050233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...CARLOTTA GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 125.7W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1660 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 125.7 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general
motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Carlotta
is expected to become a remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipate
by the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 042034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Carlotta continues to steadily spin down over cool waters. While it
is still producing a small area of moderate convection, mostly to
the west of its center, Carlotta is otherwise free of deep
convection at this time. The intensity estimate has been lowered
further to 50 kt based on a blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak numbers
from TAFB, however this could be generous since most objective
estimates are a little lower.

Carlotta has moved south of previous forecasts, perhaps responding
to shallow-layer steering sooner than previously expected due to its
lack of recent convection. Therefore, the NHC track forecast has
been adjusted southward, but is still near the multi-model
consensus. Overall, Carlotta is still forecast to move generally
westward for the next few days, slowing slightly and perhaps turning
west-southwestward near mid-week as it becomes post-tropical. The
tropical storm should lose its remaining deep convection during the
next day or two while it continues to move over cool SSTs and
through a stable surrounding environment. This will ultimately cause
Carlotta to dissipate in about three days, if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.9N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.1N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 20.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 20.4N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0600Z 20.2N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 042033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 125.0W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 125.0 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated and Carlotta
is forecast to become a remnant low in a day or two. The subsequent
remnant low is expected to dissipate around mid-week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 042032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 125.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 60SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 125.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 124.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 126.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.4N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.2N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 125.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 041435
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Carlotta's deep convection has become quite limited this
morning. Subjective Dvorak and objective satellite estimates like
the UW-CIMSS ADT are all decreasing, and support an initial
intensity estimate of 55 kt. No changes of note were made to the NHC
forecast, and further weakening should continue as Carlotta moves
over SSTs that are already below 25 deg C. The SSTs will only get
colder during the next couple of days as Carlotta moves along the
forecast track. The tropical storm is forecast by most models to
lose its remaining deep convection in about 48 h, and based on
current trends this could occur even sooner. Dissipation is still
expected around mid-week.

The tropical storm is still moving westward to west-northwestward.
This general motion should continue for the next day or two as
Carlotta is steered by a deep-layer ridge centered well to its
northeast. As the cyclone weakens further and becomes more
vertically shallow, low-level steering will likely cause it to turn
westward and slow down slightly in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 19.9N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 20.7N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 21.1N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 21.3N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z 21.3N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 21.2N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 041435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...CARLOTTA SLOWLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 124.0W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 124.0 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion
is expected for the next day or two. Carlotta's forward motion is
forecast to slow down gradually as it becomes a remnant low in a
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.
Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low late Monday or early
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coast of the southern
Baja California peninsula are expected to diminish today. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 041435
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 124.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 124.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.7N 127.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.1N 128.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.3N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.2N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 124.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 122.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 122.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.2N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.7N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.2N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.5N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.6N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.7N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 123.0W.
04AUG24. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 040842
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Carlotta has continued to weaken overnight. Central deep convection
has collapsed, and the low-level center appears to be at least
partially exposed in proxy-visible satellite images. As a result,
the satellite-based intensity estimates have decreased. The initial
intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory, which makes
Carlotta a tropical storm.

The storm is expected to move over progressively cooler SSTs over
the next few days while encountering stronger deep-layer shear in a
drier, more stable environment. Therefore, steady weakening is
forecast, and Carlotta is likely to lose organized convection and
become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. After that, the
shallow cyclone should spin down and dissipate around midweek.

Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward at around 10 kt while
being steered by a deep-layer ridge centered to its north and east.
This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or
two. As the system weakens, the shallow vortex should move westward
within the low-level steering currents. There are no significant
changes to the latest NHC track prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 19.9N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.7N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 21.5N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 21.7N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 040841
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...CARLOTTA NOW A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 123.0W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 123.0 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through Monday, with a gradual turn
toward the west on Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected over the next few
days, and Carlotta is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low
on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coast of the southern
Baja California peninsula are expected to diminish today. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 040841
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 123.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 123.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 122.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 126.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 129.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.7N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 123.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 121.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 121.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.8N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.4N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.0N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.3N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.6N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.7N 131.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.6N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 122.0W.
04AUG24. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 837 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 040237
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

The structure of Carlotta on conventional geostationary satellite
imagery has been gradually becoming less impressive. Although the
latest subjective CI numbers are still around 77 kt, the latest
CIMSS objective intensity estimates have fallen to the 65-72 kt
range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 70 kt.

Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest, or 285/9 kt. A
deep-layer ridge to the north of Carlotta will keep the cyclone
moving on a west-northwestward course at a similar forward speed
during the next couple of days. After that time, Carlotta is
expected to become more vertically shallow, which should ultimately
cause the cyclone to turn westward within the low-level steering
flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the
previous forecast, and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Carlotta has crossed the 26C SST isotherm this evening and is
forecast to reach SSTs colder than 24C within the next 24 h. The
cyclone is currently in a low-shear environment, but southwesterly
shear is forecast to become much stronger in about 24 h. Carlotta
will also be reaching a more stable environment by Sunday morning.
The combination of these factors will cause continued weakening.
Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday morning, as
both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone
losing its convection by that time. The remnant low should then
dissipate later in the week. The NHC intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the intensity consensus aids and is nearly identical
to the previous NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.4N 121.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 21.7N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z 21.6N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 040237
TCMEP3

HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.3N 128.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.7N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.6N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 040237
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...CARLOTTA STARTING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 121.9W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 121.9 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Monday, with a gradual turn
towards the west by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight, with a more steady
rate of weakening forecast on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central
mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are
gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 18.9N 120.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 120.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.4N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.1N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.6N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.1N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.4N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.7N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.7N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 121.0W.
03AUG24. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 847 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 032042
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Carlotta appears to have peaked in intensity earlier today, as the
core convection on the west side has eroded a bit this afternoon,
leading to a slightly less symmetric structure. A pair of recent
ASCAT passes indicate that the low-level wind structure is fairly
symmetric, with winds over 50 kt in all quadrants. The latest
subjective CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are T-4.5/77 kt and the
objective CIMSS intensity estimates range from 64 to 87 kt. The
initial intensity has been nudged down to 75 kt based on a blend of
the data and the slightly degraded structure noted on satellite
imagery.

Carlotta has been moving more westward and a bit slower, about
275/9-kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of Carlotta will keep the
cyclone moving on a westward to west-northwestward course at a
slightly slower forward speed during the next few days. After that
time, Carlotta is expected to become more vertically shallow, which
should ultimately cause the cyclone to turn back westward towards
the end of the forecast period. Very little change has been made to
the previous NHC forecast.

Carlotta will be crossing the 26C SST isotherm by this evening.
Beyond 24 hours, the wind shear is forecast to increase as the
cyclone moves into a more stable environment. Only slow weakening
is forecast during the next 24 hours, with more steady weakening
after that time. Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low on
Tuesday, as both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imageries
show the cyclone losing its convection by that time. The remnant
low should then dissipate later in the week. The NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.0N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 21.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 21.7N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 032042
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...CARLOTTA MOVING TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 120.9W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 120.9 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through tonight,
with a more steady rate of weakening forecast by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central
mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are
gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 032041
TCMEP3

HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 75SE 75SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 120.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 127.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.4N 129.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.7N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 120.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PAPIN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 119.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 119.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.2N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.7N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.4N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.9N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.2N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.4N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.5N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.5N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 120.2W.
03AUG24. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 838 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 031443
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

This morning Carlotta might be near or just past its peak intensity.
The smaller inner-core we had been observing over the last day or so
has become a bit broader, with an AMSR-2 microwave pass at 0943 UTC
showing that an eyewall replacement cycle has been underway.
Intensity estimates this morning are about the same as they were
last night, and given the structural evolution seen on satellite,
the initial intensity is being held at 80 kt.

Carlotta continues to move westward to west-northwestward at
285/12-kt. A gradual slow down in the hurricane's forward motion is
expected over the next few days as it reaches the westward extent of
a deep-layer ridge. After that time, Carlotta is expected to become
more vertically shallow, which should ultimately cause the cyclone
to turn back westward towards the end of the forecast period. Only
minor adjustments were made in the forecast track this cycle, and
the latest NHC forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus
aids which are tightly clustered with the overall model guidance.

With the aforementioned eyewall replacement cycle ongoing, Carlotta
has likely run out of time to intensify much more in the short-term,
especially since the hurricane will be crossing the 26 C isotherm in
12 hours. Thus, no more intensification is shown in the latest NHC
forecast, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Sunday. This
weakening will likely be hastened by an abrupt increase in
southwesterly vertical wind shear after 24 h as indicated by the
SHIPS guidance, and Carlotta is likely to become a remnant low
before the end of the forecast period as its remaining organized
convection dissipates as seen in simulated IR from the GFS/ECMWF.
The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 19.0N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.2N 121.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.7N 123.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.9N 127.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 21.2N 128.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 21.4N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 21.5N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 031441
TCMEP3

HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 119.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.2N 121.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.7N 123.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 125.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 127.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 128.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 120.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 031442
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN
EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 120.0W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 120.0 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change is strength is expected today, but weakening
should begin by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central
mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are
gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 18.8N 118.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 118.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.1N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.5N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.1N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.7N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.1N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.4N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.1N 132.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.1N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 119.1W.
03AUG24. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 837 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030856
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Carlotta has become a little better organized over the past several
hours. An eye has occasionally been apparent in satellite images
and deep convection remains most organized on the south side of the
circulation. There are some intrusions of dry air, however, that
have caused gaps in the deep convective pattern north of the center.
A blend of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates support nudging up the initial intensity to 80 kt.
Carlotta is a compact hurricane with recent ASCAT-B data showing
that the tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 n mi
from the center and hurricane-force winds are estimated to only
extend about 10 n mi from the center.

The hurricane could strengthen a little more while it remains in
conducive environmental conditions, but the window for
intensification should close by this evening. Steady weakening is
expected to begin tonight once Carlotta crosses the 26 C SST
isotherm and moves into an environment of increasing vertical wind
shear and drier air. Carlotta will likely fall below hurricane
strength on Sunday and weaken to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The
NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the guidance.

Carlotta is moving westward at 12 kt. A west-northwestward motion
at a slightly slower pace is expected during the next few days as
the hurricane moves toward the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge. However, once Carlotta becomes a weak and shallow system by
the middle of next week, it will likely turn back westward in the
low-level flow. Little change was made to the previous track
forecast, and this one is close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.9N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 19.1N 120.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.5N 122.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 20.7N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 21.1N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 21.4N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 22.1N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0600Z 22.1N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030855
TCMEP3

HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 118.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 118.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.1N 120.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 122.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 126.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 128.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.4N 129.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 22.1N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 22.1N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 118.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030855
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 118.9W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 118.9 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today, but
weakening should begin by tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central
mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are
gradually subsiding, and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.7N 117.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 117.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.0N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.3N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.8N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.3N 125.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.8N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.2N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.0N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.2N 135.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 118.1W.
03AUG24. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030248
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Carlotta has changed little in structure this evening. Infrared
geostationary satellite imagery continues to show hints of a clouded
eye embedded in a central dense overcast with upper-level outflow
present in all quadrants. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB were T4.5/77-kt and objective estimates range between 71-82 kt.
The initial intensity for this advisory is held at 75 kt in the
middle of these estimates.

The hurricane is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge centered
over the southwestern United States is forecast to steer Carlotta
westward for another day or so. Later this weekend, the hurricane
is expected to turn to the west-northwest around the southwest edge
of the ridge. Carlotta should turn back to the west as it weakens
later in the forecast period. Only minor adjustments have been made
to the latest NHC track forecast.

The window for additional strengthening is growing smaller. Within
a day, Carlotta is expected to be over cooler ocean waters and begin
weakening. By Sunday night or Monday morning, the vertical wind
shear is forecast to notably increase and steadily weaken the
hurricane. Simulated satellite imagery from global models indicate
that Carlotta should lose its convection by day 4. The official
intensity forecast is above most guidance in the near-term
prediction, and closer to the various consensus aids for the
remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 18.8N 117.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 19.3N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 21.2N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 22.2N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030247
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...HURRICANE CARLOTTA HEADING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 117.9W
ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 117.9 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so. By Saturday night,
a turn to the west-northwest is forecast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast within the next day,
followed by steady weakening through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coasts of west-central
mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula are
beginning to subside and should diminish by Sunday. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030246
TCMEP3

HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
0300 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.9W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 117.9W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 117.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.3N 121.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 123.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 129.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.2N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 115.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 115.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.0N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.2N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.6N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.1N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.6N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.0N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.0N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.5N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 116.6W.
02AUG24. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 022038
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024

While Carlotta remains a small hurricane, its structure appears
rather healthy, with a distinct central dense overcast and a clouded
over eye appearing on visible or infrared imagery. There was also a
GPM microwave pass at 1623 UTC which showed a well-organized
inner-core with a small eyewall. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity
estimate was T4.5/77-kt, and objective estimates range from 65-82
kt, so the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt for this
advisory. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were adjusted some thanks to
a helpful afternoon scatterometer pass.

Carlotta is moving a little more westward this afternoon, estimated
at 280/12 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast
philosophy, with well-established ridging poleward of Carlotta
expected to maintain this westward to west-northwestward heading
over the next several days, albeit with a gradual slowdown. By the
end of the forecast as Carlotta loses its deep convection, it will
turn westward as it primarily becomes steered by the low-level flow.
The track guidance was little changed from the previous cycle, and
the NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory.

The hurricane has another 24 hours over sufficently warm waters and
light to moderate vertical wind shear to intensify a bit more, and
the NHC intensity forecast maintains a peak intensity at 85 kt, or
Category 2 intensity. However, Carlotta then moves over less than 26
C sea surface temperatures beyond that time frame, and this coupled
with the hurricane moving into increasingly dry and stable air,
should induce gradual weakening. This process will also be hastened
by increasing southwesterly shear beyond 60 h, and Carlotta will
likely lose convective organization sometime in the days 4 or 5
time-frame, marking its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The
NHC intensity forecast is in pretty good agreement with the
consensus intensity aids, and is a little lower after 24 hours than
the prior NHC intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.7N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 19.6N 122.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.0N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 22.5N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 022037
TCMEP3

HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
2100 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 116.4W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 116.4W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.6N 122.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 128.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 116.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 022037
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...HURRICANE CARLOTTA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 116.4W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 116.4 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a general westward
to west-northwestward motion with a gradual slowdown is forecasted
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, followed by weakening beginning by early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting the coasts of
west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions through Sunday. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 18.5N 114.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 114.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.9N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.3N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.6N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.9N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.3N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.8N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.6N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.0N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 115.4W.
02AUG24. HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 863 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 983
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 021440
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Since the previous advisory, Carlotta's structure on satellite
imagery has improved, with a banding eye showing up on both infrared
and visible frames. We have been also receiving helpful surface
observations from Isla Clarion which earlier reported sustained
winds of 47 kt with a gust of 71 kt and a minimum pressure of 986 mb
as Carlotta passed by just to the north. These data, along with
subjective and objective intensity estimates in the 65-77 kt range
are the basis to increase the initial intensity to 70 kt, making
Carlotta the first hurricane of the East Pacific season.

Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward, estimated at
285/12-kt. This heading with a gradual slowdown is expected to
continue for the next several days as the hurricane remains
influenced by a large deep-layer ridge centered over the
southwestern United States. The track guidance this cycle has not
changed much other than another subtle shift north again, and the
NHC track forecast was nudged again in that direction.

The small hurricane has an opportunity to intensify further over the
next day or so while it remains over warm ocean waters and low to
moderate vertical wind shear. Similar to the previous advisory, the
NHC forecast continues to show a peak intensity as a Category 2
hurricane in 24-36 hours. However beyond that time, sea-surface
temperatures decrease under 26 C and continue to cool as the
environmental moisture becomes increasingly dry and stable. Thus,
weakening should begin in earnest after that time period, with the
system becoming post-tropical as it loses its remaining convection
by the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.3N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 19.6N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 19.9N 123.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 22.0N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 021438
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Carlotta Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 115.2W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlotta was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 115.2 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a
continued west-northwestward motion with a gradual slowdown is
anticipated over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increase to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by some weakening by early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km). Earlier, a Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion
reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (86 km/h) and a gust of 81 mph
(130 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).
Earlier, a Mexican Navy automated station on Isla Clarion reported a
minimum pressure of 986 mb (29.11 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting the coasts of
west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions through Sunday. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 021432
TCMEP3

HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.3N 119.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 121.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.9N 123.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 127.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 130.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 22.0N 134.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 113.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 113.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.6N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.9N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.2N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.4N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.7N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.2N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.0N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.5N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 114.0W.
02AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 906 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 991 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020849
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 AM MST Fri Aug 02 2024

Recent scatterometer data indicate the center of Carlotta remains
embedded within a small central dense overcast as deep convection
has persisted near and over the center tonight. Satellite images
indicate the upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted over the
western part of the circulation, perhaps the result of some westerly
shear. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates range from 54-65 kt, and the initial intensity is raised
to 60 kt for this advisory. The initial tropical-storm-force wind
field of Carlotta has been made slightly larger than previous
estimates based on the scatterometer winds.

Carlotta is moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt), but a turn toward
the west is expected later today as a ridge strengthens to the north
of the cyclone. A continued westward to west-northwestward motion is
forecast through early next week. The model guidance has once again
trended northward this cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast is
adjusted in that direction, mainly in the 72-120 h time frame. Based
on the multi-model consensus aids, the updated prediction is also
slightly faster than the previous one during the latter half of the
forecast period.

The environmental and oceanic conditions are generally favorable for
strengthening during the next couple of days. However, there remains
some dry air in the surrounding environment that has at times
disrupted Carlotta's organization in recent days given its small
size. Assuming the inner core structure has improved based on recent
convective trends, additional strengthening seems likely during the
next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast remains on the high end of the
guidance envelope, generally between the HFIP corrected consensus
and the stronger HAFS-A/B regional models. Since Carlotta is a small
cyclone, it could be susceptible to rapid intensity fluctuations.
The storm is forecast to reach the 26C isotherm in about 60-72 h.
Thereafter, weakening is forecast while Carlotta encounters cooler
SSTs, increasing shear, and decreasing mid-level moisture.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 18.2N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.6N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 19.7N 124.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 20.2N 126.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 21.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020846
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 AM MST Fri Aug 02 2024

...CARLOTTA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 113.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 113.8 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected today, with a continued westward motion
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, followed by some weakening early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. An automated Mexican Navy weather station on
Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (56
km/h) and a gust of 65 mph (105 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting the coasts of
west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions through Sunday. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020846
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
0900 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 113.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 113.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.6N 115.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 120.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 124.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 126.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 113.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 17.8N 112.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 112.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.6N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.8N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.1N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.4N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.7N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.2N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.5N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 113.0W.
02AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 931
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
020000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020246
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024

Carlotta continues to hold steady. Geostationary satellite imagery
show a healthy central dense overcast with periodic overshooting
cloud tops. Recent microwave satellite imagery from AMSR2 and
SSMIS reveal a more asymmetric low-level circulation. Subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 48-61 kt,
and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.

The storm is moving at an estimated 285/10 kt along the south side
of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States.
The strengthening ridge is expected to turn Carlotta westward within
a day or so and steer the storm slightly north of west for the
remainder of the forecast period. The official forecast has again
shifted slightly northward, largely due to the estimated initial
center location, and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus
model.

While the deep layer vertical wind shear appears to be weak, the
microwave satellite imagery suggested Carlotta could be experiencing
some moderate mid-level shear. Models indicate the generally
conducive environmental and oceanic conditions should allow for
additional strengthening within the next day or two. Beyond 48 h,
cooling waters and more marginal environmental conditions should
weaken Carlotta through the end of the forecast period. The
intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast and lies
near the top of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 17.9N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 18.6N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 19.1N 121.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 19.4N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 19.7N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 20.2N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020245
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
0300 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 112.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 112.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N 116.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 121.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 123.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.7N 124.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.2N 128.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 112.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020245
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024

...CARLOTTA HOLDING STEADY AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 112.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 112.8 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward
the west on Friday and a continued westward motion through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane either tonight or
tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of
west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula beginning soon. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 111.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 111.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.9N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.2N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.4N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.6N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.9N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.2N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.5N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 112.1W.
01AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 974
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS 993
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 012046
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024

Carlotta has changed little in organization since the last
advisory, with satellite imagery showing a well-defined central
dense overcast with a complex of outer bands in the eastern
semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates
are mainly in the 45-55 kt range, and they have nudged upward a
little over the past six hours. Based on this, the initial
intensity is increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/10 kt. Carlotta is on the south side
of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the southwestern United
States and the adjacent northeastern Pacific. The ridge is
expected to strengthen during the next day or two, and this should
steer the cyclone more westward during this time. After about 60
h, Carlotta should move west-northwestward as it approaches a
weakness in the mid-level part of the ridge caused by a large
trough over the north Central Pacific. The track guidance has
again shifted northward, and the new forecast track, which is in
best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model, has also
been shifted northward.

Carlotta is expected to remain in an area of light shear for the
next 48 h, with sea surface temperatures slowly decreasing along
the forecast track during that time. Thus strengthening is
expected, although the intensity guidance is forecasting less
strengthening than on the previous cycles. Based on this, the
forecast peak intensity has been decreased slightly, and the 85-kt
peak intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity
guidance. After 48 h, increasing westerly shear and decreasing sea
surface temperatures should cause Carlotta to weaken for the
remainder of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 17.5N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.2N 115.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 18.4N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.6N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 18.9N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 19.2N 123.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 012043
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024

...CARLOTTA PASSING SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 111.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward
the west on Friday and a continued westward motion through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane either tonight or
tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. The Mexican navy station on Socorro Island
recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of
west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 012043
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
2100 UTC THU AUG 01 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N 115.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 117.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 120.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 122.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 123.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 110.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 110.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.9N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.2N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.3N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.4N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.6N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.0N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.5N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.0N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 111.2W.
01AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 996 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z
IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 011449
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024

After intensifying over the past 12 to 18 hours, Carlotta is taking
a brief pause as the inner-core becomes better established, though
the system is still quite healthy looking on satellite imagery with
plenty of curved bands around a formative central dense overcast
(CDO). A blend of the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
still support an intensity of 50-kt this advisory, which is also
roughly in the middle of objective intensity guidance.

Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward at 295/10-kt. This
motion is caused by a prominent deep-layer ridge located over the
southwestern United States, and Carlotta may turn more back westward
over the next few days as this ridge continues to strengthen.
However by day 3 and beyond, the tropical cyclone will begin to
feel a weakness to the north, which will likely result in a gradual
slowdown in its forward motion and another gentle shift more
poleward in the track. The latest track guidance is ever so slightly
further north and faster compared to the previous cycle. Thus, the
NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit in that direction,
roughly in between the prior track forecast, and the reliable
consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

Environmental conditions still appear quite favorable for
intensification, with warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs),
and low to moderate shear between 10-15 kt out of the northwest. The
rate of intensification may be determined more by how Carlotta's
inner-core evolves, and there have not been any recent microwave
images to diagnose the current structure. The SHIPS rapid
intensification index is a little lower than last night, though this
could also be in response to the temporary pause in the
intensification. However the last few GOES-18 images suggest the CDO
is becoming better established though an eye has yet to fully appear
on first-light visible imagery. Even though the intensity guidance
has shifted a little lower than last night, I have elected to keep
the same intensification rate in the NHC forecast from the last
cycle over the next 24 hours. This forecast is in better agreement
with the regional-hurricane models HAFS-A/B versus the lower
consensus aids that have been influenced by the lower SHIPS and LGEM
guidance. After 48-60 hours, SSTs begin to markedly decrease along
the forecast track, dropping under 26 C in 96 hours. Thus, the NHC
intensity forecast shows gradual weakening between days 3 to 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 17.2N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 17.9N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 18.2N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 18.3N 117.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.4N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 18.6N 121.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 19.5N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 011447
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024

...CARLOTTA STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 111.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 111.0 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west on
Friday and a continued westward motion through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane either tonight or
tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of
west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 011446
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
1500 UTC THU AUG 01 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.9N 112.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.2N 114.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 119.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 121.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 111.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 109.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 109.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.6N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.9N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.1N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.2N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.3N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.5N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.0N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.5N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 110.1W.
01AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1041 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 010837
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024

Carlotta has continued to strengthen tonight. A series of earlier
SSMIS and GMI passive microwave images show that the storm has
become better organized, with deep convection wrapping around the
center and a formative mid-level eye becoming apparent in the 89-GHz
channel. Unfortunately, no recent scatterometer data is available to
better assess the size or intensity of Carlotta. TAFB and SAB
provided T-3.0/45 kt subjective Dvorak estimates, while the UW-CIMSS
objective satellite intensity estimates range from 41-55 kt. The
initial intensity of the storm is raised to 50 kt based on a blend
of these estimates.

A ridge over the southwestern United States is steering Carlotta
west-northwestward at about 10 kt, and this general motion is
expected to continue today. As the ridge strengthens to the north of
the storm, Carlotta is forecast to turn westward on Friday and
continue on that heading through the weekend. The track models are
in good agreement through the first few days of the forecast period,
with increased spread noted thereafter in the deterministic models
and global ensembles. The updated NHC track forecast lies slightly
to the right of the previous track and is a bit faster in the longer
range, following the latest multi-model consensus aid trends.

Very warm SSTs and relatively low deep-layer shear appear favorable
for significant to possibly rapid intensification of Carlotta during
the next couple of days. Given that the microwave data suggest an
inner core could be solidifying, Carlotta seems likely to take
advantage of these favorable conditions and is expected to become a
hurricane later today. The NHC forecast is very similar to the
previous one, remaining on the high end of the intensity guidance
envelope early in the forecast period and showing continued
strengthening through early Saturday. The forecast track brings the
storm over gradually cooler waters from 72-120 h, which should
induce weakening by early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 17.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 17.6N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.2N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 18.3N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 010836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENS...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 109.9W
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 109.9 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west on
Friday and a continued westward motion through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Carlotta is expected to become a hurricane later today or
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta will affect the coasts of
west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 010835
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.9W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.9W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.6N 111.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.3N 120.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 108.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 108.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.2N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.7N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.0N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.0N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.1N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.7N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.4N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 109.1W.
01AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1086 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
010000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 010242
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024

Carlotta continues to show signs of organization this evening.
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown regular bursts of deep
convection with cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees C near the
center of the storm. Microwave satellite imagery from AMSR2 also
revealed decent structure of the low-level center. Dvorak satellite
estimates from TAFB and SAB agree Carlotta's intensity is 45 kt,
and the initial intensity has been increased to match these
estimates.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. Carlotta is
expected to gradually turn more westward in about a day or so as a
ridge builds over the southwestern United States. By Sunday, the
storm is expected to turn back to the west-northwest and slow as it
reaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest official track forecast
has once again shifted slightly north from the previous forecast and
has a slightly quicker along-track speed.

Signs are pointing towards Carlotta rapidly intensifying over the
next day or so. The storm is moving over warm waters, and the
environmental shear is expected to remain weak. Statistical model
guidance indices show between a 30 to 40 percent chance of rapid
intensification (RI) in the next 24 h. This model guidance, paired
with the latest structural information provided by satellite
imagery, are the basis for now explicitly forecasting RI in the next
24 h. This period of RI could be interrupted in a day or so by an
increase in vertical wind shear, though the global models differ in
evolution of upper-level winds, making the intensity forecast
somewhat uncertain. The latest intensity forecast lies close to the
corrected consensus aid, HCCA, and the peak has been increased to 90
kt at 60 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 16.6N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 17.2N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 18.0N 116.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 18.0N 118.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 18.1N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 18.7N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 19.4N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 010241
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024

...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 108.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 108.9 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a
turn to the west by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Carlotta is now anticipated to become a hurricane by
Thursday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are expected to affect the coasts
of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula beginning Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 010240
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
0300 UTC THU AUG 01 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.9W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.9W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 116.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 118.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 120.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.7N 122.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 19.4N 124.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 107.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 107.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.8N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.3N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.7N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.8N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.8N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.8N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.3N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.3N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312200Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 108.4W.
31JUL24. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
311800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 312042
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024

The convective structure of the depression has continued to improve
this afternoon, with plenty of curved bands on satellite imagery
wrapping cyclonically around a well-defined center. After the prior
advisory, a late arriving SSMIS pass also showed these cyclonic
bands well on the 37-GHz channel. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates were T3.0/45-kt from TAFB and T2.5/35-kt from SAB. Given
the improvement in structure, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt
this advisory, upgrading Tropical Depression Three-E to Tropical
Storm Carlotta, the third named storm of the slow-starting 2024 East
Pacific Hurricane Season.

Carlotta has been moving a bit more poleward that previously
expected, with the most recent 12-h motion averaging around
305/12-kt. This northwestward motion is soon expected to turn back
more westward as it comes under the influence of a large deep-layer
ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The global model
guidance continues to advertise a broad weakness in this ridging
forming on its western side by days 4-5, and a slowdown with some
poleward turn is possible in Carlotta's track by the end of the
forecast period. Overall, the guidance this cycle has shifted more
northward than before, partially due to the initial position, but
the NHC track forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus
aids, in between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The improvement in Carlotta's structure also could mean it is more
poised to intensify faster than previously expected in the
short-term. This possibility is reflected by the latest intensity
guidance which is notably higher than before, showing Carlotta
taking advantage of the favorable low vertical wind shear and warm
sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest SHIPS rapid
intensification (RI) index now indicates a 30-40 percent chance of
RI over the next 24 hours. While the NHC intensity forecast will not
quite show this rate of intensification yet, it is higher than
before, and now peaks Carlotta as a 85-kt Category 2 hurricane in
60-72 hours. This intensity forecast is is pretty good agreement
with the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) forecast,
but is now a shade under the latest HAFS-A/B forecast. Carlotta is
still expect to begin moving over cooler waters by days 4-5 which
should begin to induce a gradual weakening by the end of the
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 16.2N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 16.8N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 17.7N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.8N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 17.8N 120.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 18.3N 122.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 19.3N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 312041
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.0W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 108.0W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 109.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.7N 113.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.8N 118.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.8N 120.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.3N 122.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.3N 124.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 108.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 312042
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
200 PM MST Wed Jul 31 2024

...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT THE END OF THIS WEEK
AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 108.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 108.0 West. Carlotta is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn back
west-northwestward and then westward is anticipated over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecasted over the next
few days, and Carlotta is now anticipated to become a hurricane
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 311445
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM MST Wed Jul 31 2024

Over the last few hours, the convective organization has improved
with the area of low pressure we have been monitoring a few hundred
miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico. First-light visible
imagery from a GOES-West meso-sector over the storm show the
development of organized curve banding, with low-level cloud motions
also now suggesting the presence of closed cyclonic flow. This
improved convective structure was also seen in an earlier 1040 UTC
SSMIS microwave pass. In addition, the latest set of subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates were both at T2.5/35 kt from both SAB and
TAFB. All these data suggest that the system has become a tropical
cyclone, and advisories are being initiated at this time. The
initial intensity for this advisory is set at 30 kt, a little under
the Dvorak estimates given the lower objective estimates and
earlier scatterometer data.

The initial estimated motion is off to the west-northwest at
295/12-kt. This motion is expected to continue with a gentle
turn more westward over the next few days as the system becomes
primarily steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the
southwestern United States. Towards the end of the forecast period,
there could be a bit more of a weakness in this ridge on its
western extent, potentially allowing the system to turn more
poleward again. The initial track forecast in general sticks close
to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA, which favor a track that is in
between the operational GFS and ECMWF tracks, but slightly in favor
of the latter.

Intensity-wise, TD3-E might be our first system in the East Pacific
to last longer than a couple of days, with most of the guidance
suggesting intensification into the weekend. SHIPS guidance from
both the GFS and ECMWF suggest the shear will remain low (less than
15 kt) while sea-surface temperatures underneath the cyclone remain
in the 29-30 C range over the next few days. Such a favorable
environment could favor significant intensification once an
inner-core becomes established. Interestingly, the
regional-hurricane model guidance, while showing intensification, do
not currently forecast rapid intensification. The first NHC
intensity forecast shows more gradual intensification for the next
day or so, followed by a somewhat faster rate, peaking the system as
a Category 1 hurricane in 72 h, on the high end of the intensity
guidance. Towards the end of the forecast, the tropical cyclone
should begin to move over cooler ocean waters, with gradual
weakening expected to begin around day 4 or 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 15.1N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 15.7N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 16.3N 110.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 16.7N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 17.0N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.1N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 18.0N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 18.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 311442
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024
800 AM MST Wed Jul 31 2024

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COASTLINE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 107.2W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a turn more
westward over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecasted and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane by this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 311441
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
1500 UTC WED JUL 31 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.2W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.7N 108.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.3N 110.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.7N 112.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 117.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.1N 119.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN