Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DANIEL-24
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 060643

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 128.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2024 20.5N 128.2W WEAK
12UTC 06.08.2024 20.4N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2024 20.1N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.7N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2024 30.7N 82.3W MODERATE
12UTC 06.08.2024 31.7N 81.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2024 31.5N 80.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2024 31.7N 79.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2024 32.0N 79.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2024 33.0N 79.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2024 33.9N 79.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2024 36.2N 80.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2024 39.6N 78.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2024 41.0N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2024 48.2N 68.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2024 49.6N 59.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 109.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2024 16.2N 109.2W WEAK
12UTC 06.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 114.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2024 13.5N 114.0W WEAK
12UTC 06.08.2024 13.6N 114.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2024 16.1N 115.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2024 17.5N 118.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2024 19.1N 120.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2024 19.9N 124.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2024 21.1N 126.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2024 22.2N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2024 23.0N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2024 23.9N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2024 24.2N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2024 24.4N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 126.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2024 16.4N 126.4W WEAK
12UTC 06.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060643


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 060644

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 128.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2024 0 20.5N 128.2W 1001 36
1200UTC 06.08.2024 12 20.4N 129.4W 1005 30
0000UTC 07.08.2024 24 20.1N 130.5W 1008 25
1200UTC 07.08.2024 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.7N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2024 0 30.7N 82.3W 998 36
1200UTC 06.08.2024 12 31.7N 81.3W 1000 37
0000UTC 07.08.2024 24 31.5N 80.6W 997 36
1200UTC 07.08.2024 36 31.7N 79.4W 993 43
0000UTC 08.08.2024 48 32.0N 79.7W 991 42
1200UTC 08.08.2024 60 33.0N 79.5W 991 39
0000UTC 09.08.2024 72 33.9N 79.9W 993 37
1200UTC 09.08.2024 84 36.2N 80.2W 997 33
0000UTC 10.08.2024 96 39.6N 78.4W 1000 33
1200UTC 10.08.2024 108 41.0N 74.5W 1001 40
0000UTC 11.08.2024 120 48.2N 68.9W 994 28
1200UTC 11.08.2024 132 49.6N 59.0W 991 37
0000UTC 12.08.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 109.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2024 0 16.2N 109.2W 1003 36
1200UTC 06.08.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 114.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2024 0 13.5N 114.0W 1000 38
1200UTC 06.08.2024 12 13.6N 114.4W 1000 42
0000UTC 07.08.2024 24 16.1N 115.7W 999 37
1200UTC 07.08.2024 36 17.5N 118.5W 999 34
0000UTC 08.08.2024 48 19.1N 120.9W 999 33
1200UTC 08.08.2024 60 19.9N 124.0W 999 31
0000UTC 09.08.2024 72 21.1N 126.6W 1000 30
1200UTC 09.08.2024 84 22.2N 128.9W 1001 30
0000UTC 10.08.2024 96 23.0N 130.8W 1004 27
1200UTC 10.08.2024 108 23.9N 132.9W 1007 27
0000UTC 11.08.2024 120 24.2N 135.0W 1010 26
1200UTC 11.08.2024 132 24.4N 136.9W 1013 24
0000UTC 12.08.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 126.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2024 0 16.4N 126.4W 1007 35
1200UTC 06.08.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060643


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 060527

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLX MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 128.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2024 0 20.5N 128.3W 1002 36

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2024 0 30.6N 82.3W 997 39

TROPICAL STORM FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 109.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2024 0 16.6N 109.3W 1004 31

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 113.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2024 0 13.6N 113.6W 1002 35

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 126.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2024 0 16.6N 126.1W 1006 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060527


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 060527

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLX MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 128.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2024 20.5N 128.3W WEAK

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2024 30.6N 82.3W MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 109.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2024 16.6N 109.3W WEAK

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 113.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2024 13.6N 113.6W WEAK

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 126.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.08.2024 16.6N 126.1W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060527


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/REMNANTS 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. REMNANTS 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 011
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 126.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 126.2W
---
REMARKS:
06AUG24. REMNANTS 04E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1096 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 7 FEET.
REFER TO POST-TRPICAL CYCLONE 03E (CARLOTTA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31
PHNC). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 060253
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Daniel Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Earlier today, GOES Proxy-Vis satellite imagery and microwave
overpasses had indicated that Daniel's surface circulation center
had become less defined, and this afternoon's scatterometer pass
showed a poorly defined surface swirl and possibly open in the
north quadrant. Since that time, the satellite presentation shows
that the cyclone has opened up into a trough while embedded within
the persistent southwesterly monsoonal flow. Accordingly, this is
the last NHC Advisory on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 060252
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Daniel Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DANIEL DISSIPATES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 126.0W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Daniel were located near
latitude 16.7 North, longitude 126.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 060251
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.0W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.0W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 126.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 126.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 060242
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Daniel Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Earlier today, GOES Proxy-Vis satellite imagery and microwave
overpasses had indicated that Daniel's surface circulation center
had become less defined, and this afternoon's scatterometer pass
showed a poorly defined surface swirl and possibly open in the
north quadrant. Since that time, the satellite presentation shows
that the cyclone has opened up into a trough while embedded within
the persistent southwesterly monsoonal flow. Accordingly, this is
the last NHC Advisory on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF DANIEL
12H 06/1200Z 17.6N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED


$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 060241
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.0W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.0W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 126.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.6N 125.4W...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 126.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 060241
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Daniel Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DANIEL DISSIPATES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 126.0W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Daniel were located near
latitude 16.7 North, longitude 126.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue overnight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04E
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 127.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 127.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.3N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.4N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.4N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 126.8W.
05AUG24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1153 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
051800Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E
(FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 052033
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

A recent ASCAT-B pass over Daniel this afternoon revealed that
Daniel barely has a closed circulation and its maximum winds
have decreased to 30 kt, making Daniel a tropical depression.
Daniel's convective organization is also lacking, but it has
produced persistent deep convection over its center for the past
several hours.

Little change was made to the NHC forecast. Daniel should
weaken and wrap cyclonically around the larger and more robust
circulation of Carlotta during the next couple of days. Global
models indicate that Daniel could open into a trough at any time,
Even if it maintains its circulation, its unlikely to maintain its
organized deep convection beyond tonight. Therefore the largest
change in the NHC forecast is to show Daniel becoming a remnant low
tonight or early tomorrow and dissipating soon after that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.3N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 19.4N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Camposano


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 052032
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 126.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 126.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.3N 125.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.4N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 126.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 052032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Daniel Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DANIEL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 126.9W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Daniel
was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 126.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue today. Daniel is forecast to
turn toward the northwest by tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Daniel is forecast to weaken further and become a
remnant low by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Camposano


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 009
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 128.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 128.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.6N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.0N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.9N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.3N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.0N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 127.5W.
05AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1209
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 051447
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 127.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 127.7W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 125.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.9N 126.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 127.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 051447
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DANIEL FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 127.7W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 127.7 West. Daniel is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). Daniel is
forecast to turn toward the north tonight and tomorrow, and
then continue turning toward the west by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakenind is expected. Daniel will likely become a post-tropical
remnant low by mid-week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 051448
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Daniel's organization continues to decrease, and it has become
difficult to distinguish Daniel from the surrounding ITCZ/Monsoon
Trough convection. Subjective and objective intensity estimates
vary around 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt
for this advisory.

It is very hard to determine how well-defined Daniel's surface
circulation is, so its possible that the cyclone is already near
dissipation, but this will be easier to determine after the sun has
been up over Daniel for longer. Regardless, the system should not
be around as a tropical cyclone for much longer as it is quickly
moving into a more hostile environment. Some intensity models,
including the GFS, indicate Daniel could dissipate as soon as
this afternoon. Even if it maintains its circulation for a few
days, all models suggest it will lose deep convection by tomorrow
evening and become a remnant low.

Daniel has accelerated slightly toward the east-northeast, and
should continue heading in that direction today, within low- to
mid-level southwesterly monsoonal flow. After that, dynamical models
continue to indicate that Daniel or its remnants will bend
northward, and then westward, around the outer circulation of
Carlotta. The NHC forecast continues to closely follow the consensus
models and is very similar to the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.6N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.0N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 18.9N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.3N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 129.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 129.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.7N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.1N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.3N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.6N 128.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 128.6W.
05AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1276
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050835
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...POORLY DEFINED DANIEL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON ...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 128.7W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 128.7 West. Daniel is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion is forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn
toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day or
so. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 050835
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

A 05/0422 UTC GPM/GMI microwave pass and GOES proxy-vis imagery
indicate that Daniel's structure continues deteriorating due to
the disrupting dominant monsoonal flow. Despite the advantageous
microwave image, it has become increasingly difficult to pinpoint
the cyclone's surface circulation center.

Some fluctuations in Daniel's strength are possible today while the
cyclone continues its trek over warm waters and remains within a
modest wind shear environment. Afterward, the cyclone should move
counter-clockwise around the eastern periphery of the larger
Carlotta. During that time, SHIPS statistical intensity guidance
and the global models show increasing dry air entrainment,
prompting the cyclone to weaken through the remainder of the
forecast period. The official intensity forecast agrees with the
HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus guidance and is similar to the
previous advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, 060/10
kt, and this general motion within the low to mid-level
southwesterly monsoonal flow should continue through today. After
that time, global and regional models indicate that Daniel will
move into the eastern periphery of Carlotta's cyclonic flow,
resulting in a turn toward the north and northwest while spinning
down to a remnant low on Tuesday and eventually opening up into a
trough on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is an update to the
previous one and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 14.8N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 15.7N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.3N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.0N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z 19.6N 128.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 050834
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 128.7W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 128.7W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 129.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 127.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 126.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.3N 126.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.6N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 128.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 13.9N 130.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 130.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.1N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.6N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.0N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.1N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.9N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 129.8W.
05AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1339
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 050236
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Daniel's cloud pattern this evening is characterized by a few
intermittently bursting deep convective clusters surrounding the
poorly defined and elongated surface circulation. The satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained unchanged, and the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

Warm oceanic surface temperatures and a modest wind shear
environment should allow for some slight strengthening through
Monday. While the cyclone moves in a counter-clockwise motion
around the eastern periphery of more prominent Carlotta, increasing
dry air entrainment is expected to induce a weakening trend through
the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Daniel
becoming a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipating on Wednesday.

The cyclone's initial motion is estimated to be northeastward,
050/8 kt, and this general motion within the low to mid-level
southwesterly monsoonal flow should continue through Monday.
Afterward, global models agree that Daniel will move into the
eastern periphery of Carlotta's cyclonic flow, resulting in
a turn north and northwestward before it degenerates into an open
trough on Thursday, or sooner. The official forecast track
follows suit and is similar to the previous advisory and the
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.2N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.6N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.1N 128.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z 19.9N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 050235
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.9W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.9W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.1N 128.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.6N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.9N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 129.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050236
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...POORLY ORGANIZED DANIEL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 129.9W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 129.9 West. Daniel is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the
north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of
days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 006 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 130.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 130.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.4N 128.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.8N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.0N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.4N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.3N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.9N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 129.6W.
04AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1370
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 042036
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

While the overall convective activity has increased some this
afternoon, it certainly is not very well organized, and mainly
occuring in a bursting like fashion around Daniel's circulation. The
wind field itself also appears more elongated than 24 h ago,
stretched from SW-to-NE, possibly due to interaction with the larger
monsoonal flow. This elongated structure is also seen on a recent
scatterometer pass. The subjective and objective intensity guidance
continues to suggest the current intensity remains 35 kt.

Daniel appears to have started its northeastward motion in earnest,
with the estimated motion at 50/7-kt. This motion is forecast to
continue over the next day or so as it remains embedded in the
southwesterly monsoonal flow to the south of Carlotta. As that
tropical storm passes by Daniel to the north, the model guidance
shows Daniel being captured by Carlotta's larger cyclonic flow with
a turn north and northwestward before it opens up into a trough. The
NHC track forecast has not deviated much from the prior forecast,
once again close to the multi-model consensus.

Vertical wind shear has subsided over Daniel today, but the current
elongated structure and bursting convection does not really argue
for much in the way of intensification. Like the past few cycles,
the NHC intensity forecast shows just a modest peak at 40 kt in 24
h. Mid-level environmental moisture decreases further after that
time, with the global and regional-hurricane models showing
convection fizzling and ceasing to be organized after 48 h, marking
Daniel's transition to a post-tropical remnant low. The low should
dissipate entirely during the middle part of this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.4N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.0N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 19.3N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 19.9N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 042035
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 129.9W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 129.9W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.4N 126.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.3N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 129.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 042035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DANIEL NOW MOVING NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 129.9W
ABOUT 1465 MI...2355 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 129.9 West. Daniel is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
forecast to continue through Monday, followed by a turn toward the
north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of
days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 130.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 130.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.9N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.3N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.8N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.8N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.7N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.9N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 130.1W.
04AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1397
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 041435
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Daniel's convective structure continues to sputter along, with the
coldest cloud tops organized in two regions to the northeast and
southwest of the center, which appears to be mostly exposed this
morning. The latest round of both subjective and objective intensity
guidance has not changed much from overnight, and so the initial
intensity remains 35 kt this advisory.

It appears that the tropical storm is finally starting to track more
north-northeastward this morning, with the estimated motion at 030/4
kt. A somewhat faster northeastward motion is expected to begin
later today through Monday as Daniel's motion is influenced by the
southwesterly monsoonal flow being picked up by Carlotta passing to
the north. The global models still show a turn north and
northwestward as Daniel gets caught in the outer periphery of
Carlotta's larger circulation. The NHC track forecast is quite
similar to the prior advisory, close to the multi-model consensus.

While the vertical wind shear that was previously affecting Daniel
is starting to subside, there is quite a bit of environmental dry
air to the north of the storm, which will likely keep it in check,
and only a modest amount of intensification is forecasted. After 48
h, this dry air is expected to fully envelop the circulation,
choking off the remaining convection, marking the storm's transition
to a post-tropical remnant low. The low is finally forecast to open
up into a trough by midweek.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 13.2N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.3N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 17.8N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 18.7N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 18.9N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 041434
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DANIEL BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 130.4W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 130.4 West. Daniel is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is forecast later today and Monday, followed by
a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of
days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 041433
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 130.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.3N 127.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N 126.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.7N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.9N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 12.4N 130.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 130.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.3N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.4N 128.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.8N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.9N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.8N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.7N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 130.4W.
04AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1426
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 040849
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Daniel is not a particularly well organized tropical cyclone, and
the satellite presentation suggests the storm could be elongated
from southwest to northeast. However, it continues to produce some
deep convection near the estimated center position. Unfortunately,
recent scatterometer data swaths missed Daniel overnight. The latest
UW-CIMSS objective ADT and AiDT estimates as well as the subjective
Dvorak classification from TAFB support keeping the initial
intensity at 35 kt.

The initial position of Daniel is uncertain, but it appears the
storm is presently drifting northward. A faster northeastward motion
is expected later today through Monday due to increasing
southwesterly low- to mid-level flow while Tropical Storm Carlotta
passes to the north. Most of the global models show Daniel becoming
caught in the outer circulation of Carlotta, and the updated NHC
track forecast has been adjusted beyond 36 h to show Daniel slowing
down and turning toward the north and northwest later in the period.
These adjustments reflect the latest trends in the multi-model
consensus aids.

In the short term, the moderate northeasterly shear that has
plagued Daniel is forecast to diminish. The latest NHC intensity
forecast shows a bit of strengthening during the next day or so,
but this is primarily related to the northeastward acceleration of
the storm as opposed to significant deepening of the low. As
Daniel make a counter-clockwise turn around the outer circulation
of Carlotta, it appears that significant dry air entrainment will
make it difficult for the storm to sustain organized convection.
The NHC forecast indicates Daniel will weaken to a post-tropical
remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate around midweek.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 12.5N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 13.3N 129.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 16.9N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 17.8N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 18.7N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 040847
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DANIEL STILL DRIFTING OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 130.6W
ABOUT 1535 MI...2475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 130.6 West. Daniel is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster northeastward
motion is forecast later today and Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of
days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 040846
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
0900 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.6W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.6W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 130.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.3N 129.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 60SE 50SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.9N 126.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.7N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 130.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 130.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 130.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.1N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.2N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.6N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.1N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.5N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.6N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 130.5W.
04AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1431
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 040240
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Deep convection associated with Daniel continues to pulse this
evening. The convection is not well organized in bands, but it has
recently moved closer to the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak
current intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB remain T2.0 or 30 kt,
but the initial intensity is once again held at 35 kt in deference
to the earlier scatterometer data and the fact that there has been
little overall change in organization.

The intensity forecast reasoning remains the same as before.
Moderate northeasterly shear and dry mid-level air is likely to
prevent significant strengthening overnight. On Sunday, the shear
is forecast to relax some which could allow the cyclone to
strengthen slightly while it traverses warm sea surface
temperatures. By 48 hours, Daniel is likely to weaken as it moves
over cooler waters and reaches a more stable environment. The
cyclone is likely to cease producing organized deep convection in
about 60 hours, and it is forecast to become a remnant low around
that time.

Daniel has moved very little since the previous advisory, but a slow
northward motion is expected to begin shortly. The cyclone should
start moving faster toward the northeast on Sunday as southwesterly
low to mid-level flow around Hurricane Carlotta increases. After 48
h, the influence of Carlotta's outer circulation should cause the
weaker Daniel to turn more northward or north-northwestward before
it becomes a remnant low. The updated NHC track forecast is similar
to the previous advisory through 36-48 hours, and it adjusted
slightly westward thereafter to be closer to the latest consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 12.3N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 13.1N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.2N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.6N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 17.1N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 19.6N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 040239
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
0300 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.5W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.5W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.1N 130.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 129.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.1N 126.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.6N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 130.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 040239
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DANIEL LOITERING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 130.5W
ABOUT 1540 MI...2475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 130.5 West. Daniel has
moved little during the past several hours, but a northward motion
near 2 mph (4 km/h) is expected to begin overnight. A faster
northeastward motion is forecast on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so with
some gradual weakening expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 130.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 130.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 12.8N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.9N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.2N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.5N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.0N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.3N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 130.4W.
03AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1426
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 032041
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Since this morning, Daniel continues to be a sheared tropical
cyclone, with the deepest central convection remaining displaced to
the west of the low-level center, which is now mostly exposed. This
structure was also captured in a GMI microwave pass at 1712 UTC
which showed the low-level center on the 37 GHz channel with the
deeper convection displaced to the southwest. Subjective Dvorak Data
T-numbers are both 2.0/30 kt from SAB and TAFB, but given the
earlier scatterometer data, the intensity will remain 35 kt this
advisory.

Daniel has been moving very slowly today and may have reformed a bit
westward from last night, with the current motion estimated as a
northward drift at 360/2 kt. As previously discussed, the primary
steering mechanism the next several days is large-scale monsoonal
southwesterly flow that the cyclone is expected to remain embedded
in. This flow should begin to cause Daniel to move northeastward
within the next 12 to 24 h. After 48 h, the influence of Carlotta's
outer circulation should cause the weaker Daniel to turn more
northward or north-northwestward before it becomes a remnant low or
is absorbed by the stronger storm. There was not a whole lot of
change in the track guidance for this cycle other than in the very
short-term due to the more westward initial position, and the NHC
track forecast is very close to the prior forecast, blending the
HCCA and TCVE consensus aids.

There is also not much change in the intensity reasoning for Daniel.
Moderate northeasterly shear and a dry mid-level air environment
will probably prevent much robust strengthening despite the warm 29
C sea-surface temperatures, and only a modest increase in winds are
forecast over the next 24 to 36 h. Thereafter, Daniel's circulation
is forecast to begin interacting with Carlotta to the north, and
will likely start to gradually weaken. Both the GFS and ECMWF
suggest the circulation will stop producing organized convection by
72 h, just before the system opens up into a trough. The intensity
forecast remains in good agreement with the HCCA and SHIPS guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 12.3N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 12.8N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 13.9N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.2N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 18.0N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 19.3N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 032039
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DANIEL DRIFTING FOR NOW BUT EXPECTED TO START MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 130.4W
ABOUT 1530 MI...2465 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 130.4 West. Daniel is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A motion toward the
northeast is expected to begin over the next several days with a
gradual increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two
with some gradual weakening expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 032038
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.4W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.4W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 130.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 12.8N 130.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 129.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 128.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 125.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.3N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030151ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 12.5N 129.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 129.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 12.8N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.3N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.4N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.9N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.7N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.3N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 130.0W.
03AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1401
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 030200).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 031448
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Over the last several days, we have been monitoring the area of low
pressure located in the western part of the east Pacific basin,
currently near 130W. The deep convection with the system has been
pulsing during this time, and has been showing evidence of
organization. In fact, TAFB has been providing Dvorak intensity
estimates of CI-2.0/30 kt over the past day, and SAB more recently
provided a Data-T of 2.0/30 kt at 12 UTC. Overnight, scatterometer
wind data showed a well-defined circulation and peak winds of
35-40 kt west of the center. Some of these winds may have been
rain- inflated, but the coverage was broad enough that it is likely
that tropical storm force winds exist with the circulation. The
combination of these data suggest that the low has become a Tropical
Storm, and advisories are being initiated on Daniel with an
intensity of 35 kt.

The tropical storm has been meandering, but the current motion is
estimated to be slowly off to the northwest at 315/4 kt. Over the
next day or two, Daniel is expected to be embedded in southwesterly
monsoonal flow that is shifting northward ahead of Hurricane
Carlotta. This flow is expected to result in Daniel soon turning
northward and then northeastward as it remains embedded in this
flow. After 48 h, The storm may pivot back toward the north and
north-northwest as it becomes captures by Carlotta's larger outer
circulation. The track guidance does have a significant amount of
spread beyond 48 h related to how much Carlotta captures the smaller
Daniel, with the initial track forecast electing to go in between
the HCCA and TCVE consensus aids, which also roughly splits the
difference between the GFS and ECMWF tracks.

The environment Daniel has been and will be embedded in is not very
favorable for much additional intensification, with moderate
northeasterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level relative
humidity. Only a modest amount of strengthening is shown in the
short-term, and ultimately Daniel is likely to get caught up in
Carlotta's circulation, finally being absorbed by the larger cyclone
after day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with
the guidance, close to SHIPS and HCCA intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 12.6N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 12.8N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 14.4N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 15.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 031445
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN EAST PACIFIC
BASIN...
...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 130.0W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 130.0 West. Daniel is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is anticipated over the next several days with a gradual
increase in forward speed.

Satellite-wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is
possible during the next day or two with some gradual weakening
expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 031444
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
1500 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 130.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 130.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 129.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.8N 130.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.3N 130.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.4N 128.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.9N 127.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 130.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN