Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for EMILIA-24
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. POST TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 019
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 22.1N 124.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 124.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.9N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.5N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.1N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.6N 132.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.8N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.7N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 125.5W.
09AUG24.POST TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
756 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 090244
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Emilia has failed to produce much in the way of organized convection
since the prior burst waned earlier this morning, aside from a small
patch of -50 C cloud tops currently south of the estimated center.
SAB Dvorak classifications have been too weak to classify since this
afternoon, while the TAFB Final-T number is down to 2.0/30-kt which
was constrained from going lower. While there might continue to be
some occasional puffs of convection with Emilia over the next day or
so, the cyclone has crossed the 24 C isotherm and heading towards
even cooler ocean waters, and the chance of a more significant
convective resurgence is low. Thus, Emilia is being declared a 30-kt
post-tropical remnant low this cycle, and this will be the last NHC
advisory.

The system continues to move generally west-northwestward at 290/10
kt. This motion should continue for the next several days followed
by a turn more westward beyond 36 h as the low continues to weaken
and becomes more steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC
track forecast is largely an update of the previous forecast, in
good agreement with the multi-model consensus aids. The latest
forecast now shows the remnant low dissipating after 72 h, a bit
faster than before.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 22.3N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 09/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1200Z 24.1N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 24.6N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1200Z 24.8N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 24.7N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 090241
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...EMILIA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 125.3W
ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 125.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 12
mph (19 km/h) and this general motion with a decrease in forward
speed and turn westward is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical remnant low
is expected to dissipate by the end of this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 090240
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
0300 UTC FRI AUG 09 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 125.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 124.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.1N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 125.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 123.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 123.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.2N 125.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.9N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.5N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.0N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.4N 133.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.5N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.0N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082200Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 124.2W.
08AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 082039
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 123.8W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 123.8 West. Emilia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Emilia is likely to become a remnant low
by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 082039
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Emilia appears to be in its final stage as a tropical cyclone. Deep
convection is limited to a few small clusters over the western
semicircle as the system is being influenced by some easterly
vertical wind shear. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this
advisory in general agreement with objective estimates from
UW-CIMSS, although this could be generous.

Visible imagery indicates that the center appears to be located
somewhat to the east of previous estimates. After some adjustments,
the initial motion estimate is a little slower, or 290/12 kt. A
mid-level ridge is expected to be maintained to the north of Emilia
for the next few days. Based on this steering pattern, the cyclone
should continue its generally west-northwestward heading for the
next day or two followed by a more westward to west-southwestward
movement within the shallow low-level flow. The NHC forecast track
is close to the multi-model consensus guidance TVCE.

Over the next day or two, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs
cooler than 23 deg C in an environment of relatively dry air. This
should cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low very soon
as shown by the official intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 21.6N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 09/1800Z 22.9N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0600Z 23.5N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/0600Z 24.4N 133.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 24.5N 135.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 082038
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 123.8W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 123.8W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 123.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.9N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.5N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.4N 133.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 123.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 21.1N 122.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 122.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.8N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.7N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.5N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.2N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.7N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.9N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.5N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 123.5W.
08AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 757
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 081554 CCA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE 34 KT WIND RADII AT 09/0000Z

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 180SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 123.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 081441
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Emilia is producing small bursts of convection near its center this
morning, with little convective activity elsewhere within the
circulation. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.
This is also in good agreement with the overnight scatterometer
data that showed 30-35 kt winds with the storm.

The center of Emilia has been tugged slightly south of the previous
forecast track by recent convective bursts, but the long-term motion
remains west-northwestward (285/16 kt). The storm is expected to
continue on a west-northwestward to westward heading with a slower
forward speed over the next few days. The latest NHC track forecast
follows the multi-model consensus trends and has been nudged a bit
south of the previous prediction. Emilia is moving over cooler
waters and into a drier, more stable environment, making it unlikely
that Emilia will remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The
updated NHC forecast shows Emilia becoming a post-tropical remnant
low in 24 h. The weakening system will likely take a few days to
spin down, and the global models indicate the cyclone should open
into a trough and dissipate by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 081440
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...EMILIA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 123.3W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 123.3 West. Emilia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion at a slower forward speed is expected into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and Emilia is
forecast to become a remnant low on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 081439
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU AUG 08 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 180SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.8N 125.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.7N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.2N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.7N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 134.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 24.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 123.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 121.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 121.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.8N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.7N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.4N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.1N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.7N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.1N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.4N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.0N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 121.9W.
08AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 080851
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Emilia is quickly weakening. Two scatterometer passes from 0442 and
0535 UTC showed winds up to 35 kt with an elongated center and a
large area of light winds in the southwest quadrant. Even the area
of tropical-storm-force winds shrunk notably by the time of
the latter ASCAT pass. The center has an isolated, small burst of
convection with some decaying thunderstorms in fragmented rainbands
around the northern semicircle of the circulation. The initial
intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are becoming increasingly hostile. Emilia is expected to
continue weakening over the next couple of days and is now forecast
to become a remnant low on Friday. Though, if satellite trends
continue, this could occur sooner.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 18 kt. This
motion, with a decreased forward speed, should continue though the
weekend as Emilia is steered by a mid-level ridge centered to the
storm's northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially
unchanged from the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 21.1N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.8N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 22.7N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 23.4N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z 24.1N 130.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/1800Z 24.7N 131.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0600Z 25.1N 133.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 25.4N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 25.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 080849
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
0900 UTC THU AUG 08 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 121.9W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 121.9W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 121.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.8N 123.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.7N 126.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.4N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N 139.0W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 080850
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...EMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 121.9W
ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 121.9 West. Emilia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
motion with a slower forward speed is expected into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Emilia is likely to
become a remnant low by Friday afternoon or evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 119.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 119.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.5N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.3N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.1N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.7N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.4N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.0N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.5N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 120.2W.
08AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 080240
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Emilia seems to be in the final stages of fully absorbing the
remnants of Fabio, which now appear fully enveloped in Emilia's
larger circulation. With that said, the merger has not benefited
Emilia, and most of its deep central convection has collapsed as the
system approaches cooler waters. While there hasn't been recent
microwave data over the system, subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have either stayed the same or decreased
slightly. The initial intensity is nudged downward to 50 kt for this
advisory.

The interaction with Fabio may have resulted in a brief acceleration
in Emilia's forward motion, but the longer term motion is now off to
the west-northwest at 290/16-kt. The steering associated with a
mid-level ridge to the north should continue to result in a
west-northwestward motion for most of the forecast period. The NHC
track forecast is very similar to the prior advisory, and still lies
in the middle of the track guidance envelope.

As mentioned in the prior advisory, the shear is forecast to remain
low over Emilia, but the tropical storm is also forecast to cross
the 26 C isotherm tonight and move over increasingly cool ocean
waters. In addition, the storm will also be traversing an
increasingly dry and stable air mass along the forecast track. Thus,
gradual weakening is forecast to continue, with Emilia expected to
become a remnant low in about 48 hours, about the time when the GFS
and ECMWF simulated satellite shows organized convection
dissipating. It will likely take a few more days for the circulation
to spin down to the point it opens up into a trough, sometime
between days 4 to 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.5N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.5N 122.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 23.1N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.7N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/1200Z 24.4N 131.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0000Z 25.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z 25.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 080238
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
0300 UTC THU AUG 08 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 122.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.1N 127.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.7N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 119.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 080238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...EMILIA ABSORBING FABIO BUT ALSO WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 119.9W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 119.9 West. Emilia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
motion with a slower forward speed is expected over the next several
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days and Emilia is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low
by the end of this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 117.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 117.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.5N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.5N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.2N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.8N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.4N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.9N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.9N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 117.9W.
07AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 846
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 072036
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Emilia's cloud pattern has become a little ragged-looking since
earlier today, and the low-level center appears to be located near
the northern edge of the main area of deep convection. The storm's
circulation has been interacting with Fabio, which is rotating
around the western side of Emilia while dissipating. Emilia is
expected to absorb the remnant disturbance of Fabio within the next
day or so. The current intensity is set at 55 kt based on a blend
of subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. This is
also within the range of various objective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS.

The system appears to be continuing on a generally northwestward
track, with an initial motion estimate of 305/16 kt. The steering
flow associated with a mid-level ridge to the north of Emilia is
likely to cause a generally west-northwestward motion for the next
few days. The official forecast track lies roughly in the middle
of the track guidance suite.

Although the vertical shear over Emilia is expected to remain fairly
low, The cyclone will be traversing progressively cooler waters
during the next 48 hours or so. Low- to mid-level relative humidity
is also forecast to decrease during this period as well. Therefore,
gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days and
Emilia should become a post-tropical remnant low on Friday. This is
similar to the scenario shown by the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 19.1N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.5N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.5N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 22.2N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 22.8N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0600Z 23.4N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z 23.9N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z 24.9N 135.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 072035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...EMILIA A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 117.7W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 117.7 West. Emilia is
moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn
to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is expected over
the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 072035
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.7W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 280SE 120SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 117.7W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 117.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 119.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.8N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.9N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 116.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 116.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.2N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.5N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.3N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.9N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.4N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.9N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.7N 134.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 117.2W. 07AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E
(EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 943 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072200Z,
080400Z, 081000Z AND 081600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 071435
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave
overpass indicate that Emilia has become better organized this
morning. The northeasterly shear impeding the system's northeast
quadrant has decreased, allowing for improved outflow aloft. A
Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops of -88C has formed over
the surface center, and the microwave image revealed a banding eye
feature wrapping from the south side of the cyclone. The satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt and 55 kt,
respectively, and a recent SATCON analysis indicated 57 kt. Based
on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt.

Although the northeasterly deep-layer shear that has been inhibiting
Emilia's growth has subsided, the cyclone is expected to move over
decreasing oceanic surface temperatures later today while the
thermodynamic environment becomes less conducive. Therefore,
weakening is expected to commence by Thursday morning. By the
48-hour period, Emilia should spin down and degenerate into a
post-tropical remnant low, and this is in agreement with the
deterministic models and the statistical hurricane intensity
guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/15 kt.
A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is
expected on Thursday while the cyclone moves around the southwest
periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical high. Toward the end of
the period, vertically shallow Emilia is expected to turn toward the
west within the low-level trade wind flow and eventually open up
into a trough around day 5. Only slight along-track adjustments
were made to this forecast, closely following the various consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.6N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.2N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 21.3N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 21.9N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0000Z 22.4N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z 22.9N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1200Z 23.7N 134.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 071435
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...EMILIA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 117.0W
ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 117.0 West. Emilia is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A gradual turn
to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is expected on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to commence overnight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 071434
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 117.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 120SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 210SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 117.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 116.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 118.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.9N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.9N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 23.7N 134.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 117.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 116.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 116.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.9N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.6N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 21.4N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.1N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.7N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.3N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.2N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.5N 137.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 116.6W.
07AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 974
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z
IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 070846
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...EMILIA PASSING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND ...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 116.4W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 116.4 West. Emilia is
moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn and
acceleration to the northwest is expected later today, followed by a
gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later tonight or tomorrow
morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 070847
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Emilia has been holding steady tonight. Deep convection continues
to regularly pulse near the center, and a long curved band extends
to the southwest. Objective and subjective intensity estimates
range between 48 and 65 kt. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt
for the advisory cycle to represent an average of the various
estimates.

The storm is moving at an estimated 330/14 kt. A gradual turn to
the northwest and west-northwest with an increased forward speed is
expected over the next day or so as Emilia moves along the southwest
periphery of a mid-level ridge. After Emilia absorbs Fabio, a
slower forward motion to the west-northwest is forecast. By the end
of the forecast period, the weakened storm should turn westward in
the low-level flow. Only minor changes have been made to the latest
track forecast, which lies between the various consensus aids.

Emilia is still embedded in an area of moderate deep-layer vertical
wind shear. While the shear is forecast to diminish over the next
24 h, the tropical storm should be crossing the 26 degree Celsius
isotherm later today. By Thursday, Emilia is expected to absorb
Tropical Storm Fabio, located to its north. As Emilia moves over
the cooling sea surface temperatures and into a dry and stable
environment, the storm should steadily weaken and is now forecast to
lose its organized, deep convection within 72 h. The NHC prediction
now shows Emilia becoming a remnant low by Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 17.1N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 18.9N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.6N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 21.4N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 22.1N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 22.7N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 23.3N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0600Z 24.2N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z 24.5N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 070846
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.4W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 110SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 210SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.4W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 116.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.9N 117.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.6N 120.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 123.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.1N 125.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.7N 127.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.3N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.2N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 116.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 070413

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N 80.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.08.2024 31.7N 80.4W MODERATE
12UTC 07.08.2024 31.9N 79.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2024 32.4N 79.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2024 33.6N 79.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2024 34.5N 80.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2024 37.0N 79.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2024 41.2N 76.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2024 45.9N 72.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2024 49.5N 67.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2024 51.6N 66.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 115.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.08.2024 15.7N 115.0W MODERATE
12UTC 07.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 115.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.08.2024 15.3N 115.0W MODERATE
12UTC 07.08.2024 18.3N 116.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2024 20.3N 120.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2024 21.2N 122.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2024 22.0N 124.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2024 22.8N 127.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2024 23.6N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2024 24.2N 130.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2024 25.0N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2024 25.5N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2024 25.9N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070413


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 070413

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N 80.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.08.2024 0 31.7N 80.4W 998 38
1200UTC 07.08.2024 12 31.9N 79.4W 996 40
0000UTC 08.08.2024 24 32.4N 79.7W 995 34
1200UTC 08.08.2024 36 33.6N 79.9W 996 40
0000UTC 09.08.2024 48 34.5N 80.2W 997 34
1200UTC 09.08.2024 60 37.0N 79.7W 998 32
0000UTC 10.08.2024 72 41.2N 76.6W 997 34
1200UTC 10.08.2024 84 45.9N 72.2W 993 35
0000UTC 11.08.2024 96 49.5N 67.9W 992 35
1200UTC 11.08.2024 108 51.6N 66.4W 992 33
0000UTC 12.08.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FABIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 115.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.08.2024 0 15.7N 115.0W 993 47
1200UTC 07.08.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 115.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.08.2024 0 15.3N 115.0W 992 47
1200UTC 07.08.2024 12 18.3N 116.2W 991 49
0000UTC 08.08.2024 24 20.3N 120.0W 989 42
1200UTC 08.08.2024 36 21.2N 122.6W 990 39
0000UTC 09.08.2024 48 22.0N 124.9W 994 34
1200UTC 09.08.2024 60 22.8N 127.0W 998 32
0000UTC 10.08.2024 72 23.6N 128.7W 1002 29
1200UTC 10.08.2024 84 24.2N 130.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 11.08.2024 96 25.0N 131.7W 1010 24
1200UTC 11.08.2024 108 25.5N 133.1W 1013 23
0000UTC 12.08.2024 120 25.9N 134.3W 1014 23
1200UTC 12.08.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070413


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 115.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 115.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.4N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.3N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.5N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.4N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.1N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.7N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.7N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.5N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 115.6W.
07AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1061
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 990 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 070253
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Emilia continues to display a large cold convective area on infrared
satellite imagery. A helpful 06/2108 UTC AMSR2 pass indicated that
the center of Emilia was a bit farther to the northeast than
previously thought. This places the center farther away from the
middle of the central convective area, and closer to the northern
edge of the deep convection. This is not surprising, since the SHIPS
intensity guidance continues to diagnose 15 to 20 kt of
northeasterly vertical wind shear. Although the CIMSS ADT is showing
a current intensity of 59 kt, the farther north placement of the
center relative to the convection means that the cyclone might not
be quite that strong. The intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory.

Emilia has been moving just west of due north, or 350/8-kt. Emilia
should gradually turn more toward the northwest over the next 24 h
as it gets closer to Tropical Storm Fabio, which is currently
located only about 260 n mi north of Emilia. After Emilia absorbs
Fabio in 24 to 36 h, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected.
The west-northwest motion should continue after that time, as
Emilia weakens and is steered more by the low-level flow.

Emilia is still feeling the effects of moderate northeasterly wind
shear, as mentioned above. The shear is forecast to diminish in 12
to 24 h, but interactions with Fabio's circulation could complicate
the intensity forecast. Some slight intensification is possible
during the next 12-18 h if Emilia is able to fight off the moderate
wind shear. Emilia is expected to move into SSTs colder than 26C in
24-36 h, so steady weakening is forecast beyond that time. The
latest intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggests
that Emilia should become a remnant low by 96 h, and the NHC
forecast follows suit with those solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 19.3N 118.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 21.4N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 22.1N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 22.7N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 23.7N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z 24.5N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Beven



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 070249
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.5W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 110SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 180SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.5W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.3N 118.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.4N 123.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.1N 126.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 128.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.7N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 070249
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...EMILIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 115.5W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.5 West. Emilia is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the
northwest is expected by Wednesday morning, followed by a gradual
turn to the west-northwest on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to
24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Beven


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 115.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 115.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.6N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.5N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.9N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.6N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.2N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.1N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.1N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 115.4W.
06AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1127
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 992
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 062053
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Satellite imagery shows curved banding that has become slightly more
impressive over the past 6 h, and there are signs that the RMW may
have contracted a bit. Emilia has a much healthier appearance on
satellite imagery compared to Fabio, which is currently centered
about 320 miles to the north-northeast of Emilia. The latest
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt,
and the latest reliable objective intensity estimates from CIMSS
range from 48 to 59 kt. The intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory, but this estimate could be slightly conservative.

Emilia is moving slowly northwestward, or 325/3-kt. The northerly
flow to the west of Fabio is keeping Emilia's forward speed slow for
now. However, as Fabio moves farther west over the next day or so,
Emilia will accelerate to the northwest. The confidence in the
track forecast is below average due to the complex interaction with
Fabio. The latest forecast was adjusted slightly to the right and
slightly slower than the previous official forecast for about the
first 36 h, closer to the latest model consensus. Emilia is
forecast to absorb Fabio into its circulation by Thursday, but there
are some timing differences among the various models. The timing
and location of the merger is a blend of the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF
model solutions. After the merger, Emilia will turn toward the
west-northwest as it is steered more by the lower-level flow. The
track forecast beyond 48 h is very close to the previous NHC
forecast.

The interaction with Fabio makes the intensity forecast challenging.
The NHC forecast continues to favor the solution in which Emilia
absorbs Fabio in 36 to 48 h. Emilia has been able to fight off
moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear so far, and it seems
reasonable that the cyclone could intensify a bit more over the next
24 h as it remains over warm ocean waters. Emilia is forecast to
cross the 26C isotherm by 36 h, and steady weakening is expected
after that time. Emilia should weaken below tropical storm strength
on Friday and become a remnant low on Saturday. The latest
intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance and
is similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.4N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.5N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 17.6N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.5N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 20.9N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 21.6N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 22.2N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 23.1N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z 24.1N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Hogsett



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 062051
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.3W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 110SE 120SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 150SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.3W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.6N 117.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 119.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.9N 122.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.6N 125.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.2N 127.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.1N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.1N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 115.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/HOGSETT




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 062051
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...EMILIA DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 115.3W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 115.3 West. Emilia is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and it is forecast
to accelerate northwestward through Wednesday. A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest is expected on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours, and Emilia could briefly become a hurricane. Weakening is
expected to begin by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Hogsett



Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 115.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 115.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.7N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.7N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.7N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.3N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.2N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.0N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.9N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.9N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 115.2W.
06AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1146
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS
993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 061446
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Following a burst of deep convection near the center of circulation
overnight, Emilia has remained steady this morning. Scatterometer
data overnight showed a well-organized circulation, and a
combination of subjective Dvorak estimates and objective intensity
estimates indicate that the intensity has not changed much since
the prior advisory. Thus, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory.

Emilia has begun a turn toward the west-northwest, but the
motion remains an uncertain 300/5 kt. Emilia and Tropical
Storm Fabio are in the midst of a complex interaction, which will
determine the fate of both storms. The systems are forecast to
rotate slightly around each other, prior to Emilia becoming the
dominant storm. Of note is that the global GFS and ECMWF ensemble
systems show different solutions, with the GFS solution keeping
Emilia and Fabio more distinct. The current advisory leans toward
Emilia becoming dominant, absorbing Fabio, and turning westward over
the next several days. The current forecast is similar to the prior
forecast and near the consensus models.

The interaction with Fabio makes the intensity forecast
challenging. The current forecast favors the solution in which
Emilia absorbs Fabio in a few days. Thus, steady intensification is
forecast over the next 24 h, with Emilia reaching hurricane
strength on Wednesday. While the timing of the merger is uncertain,
the storm is forecast to gradually weaken into a remnant low by the
end of the forecast period as it moves over cooler ocean waters and
into a generally less favorable environment. Due to the
uncertainty associated with the interaction with Tropical Storm
Fabio, changes to Emilia's forecast could be necessary in later
advisory packages.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.0N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 14.7N 115.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 16.7N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 18.7N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 20.3N 121.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 21.2N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 22.9N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 23.9N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hogsett



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 061445
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...EMILIA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 115.2W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 115.2 West. Emilia is
now moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and it is
forecast to accelerate northwestward during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening later this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 061445
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.2W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 110SE 120SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.2W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 115.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.7N 115.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.7N 119.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.3N 121.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.2N 124.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.9N 131.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 23.9N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT




Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 008
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 114.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 114.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.3N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.0N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.1N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.6N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.8N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.5N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.8N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.7N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 114.8W.
06AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1154
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS
993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC). REFER
TO REMNANTS 04E (DANIEL) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC). REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 060850
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024

Emilia is becoming more organized overnight. The tropical storm has
had a healthy burst of deep convection near the surface center with
a growing central dense overcast. Some fortuitous scatterometer
data showed an area of 45-50 kt of wind along the southern portion
of the circulation. This combined with a TAFB Dvorak estimate of
T3.5 is the basis for increasing the initial intensity to 55 kt for
this advisory. The wind radii have also been updated using the
satellite surface wind data, extending the tropical-storm-force
winds in the southern half of the storm.

The cyclone is moving at an uncertain 255/4 kt. Emilia's track
forecast is dependent on Fabio, the tropical storm to its east. The
two systems are forecast to rotate around one another as they both
turn generally north-northwestward to northwestward and accelerate
along southwestern side of a ridge centered over the United States
during the next day or so. As Emilia weakens later in the week,
the shallower vortex should turn westward in the low-level flow.
Only small changes have been made to the latest track forecast, and
it lies on the southern side of the track guidance envelope.

Models continue to show Emilia as the dominant cyclone that should
survive the interaction with Fabio. Steady intensification is still
forecast over the next 24 h, but the peak has been adjusted upward
due to the recent strengthening trend. Emilia is now expected to
become a hurricane on Wednesday. Later in the week, most models
show Emilia and Fabio merging, though the timing is questionable.
The official prediction shows Fabio being absorbed into Emilia's
circulation by 48 h, similar to the most recent ECMWF model
forecast. The storm will gradually weaken into a remnant low by
the end of the forecast period as it moves over cooling ocean waters
and into a dry and stable environment. Due to the uncertainty in
the interaction with Tropical Storm Fabio, changes to the forecast
could be necessary in later advisory packages.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.3N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.0N 116.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 18.1N 118.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 19.6N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 20.8N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 21.5N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 22.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 23.7N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 060847
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024

...EMILIA STEADILY INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 114.7W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 114.7 West. Emilia is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A sharp turn
toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a
turn toward the northwest at a faster forward speed on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next
day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 060847
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
0900 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 114.7W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 70SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 110SE 120SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 150SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 114.7W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.3N 115.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 116.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 10NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 110SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N 118.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.6N 120.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.8N 130.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.7N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 114.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 007
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 114.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 114.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.0N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.5N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.5N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.2N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.2N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.0N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.4N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.5N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 114.3W.
06AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1151
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 997
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z. REFER TO POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03E (CARLOTTA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC). REFER TO
REMNANTS 04E (DANIEL) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC). REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 060246
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Earlier ASCAT data showed that Emilia was likely a 45 kt tropical
storm around 18Z, with an exposed low-level center located just
outside of and to the northeast of the convective overcast area,
due to moderate northeasterly shear. Since that time, the
low-level center appears to have moved toward the edge of the
convective mass. However infrared satellite imagery shows that some
of the cloud tops in the convective area have warmed slightly during
that time. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 45 kt from
TAFB and 35 kt from SAB. Recent objective intensity estimates from
CIMSS range from 34 to 42 kt. Based on all the data and satellite
imagery, the 45 kt intensity is unchanged from the previous NHC
advisory.

The latest global model runs continue to forecast that Emilia will
be the survivor in its interaction with Tropical Storm Fabio to the
east, and the merger is forecast to happen on Wednesday or Wednesday
night. In the short term, moderate northeasterly shear is forecast
to continue over Emilia. Due to the moderate shear, only modest
strengthening is forecast, and no change is made to the previous NHC
peak intensity forecast of 55 kt. After Emilia absorbs Fabio in
about 48 h, Emilia is forecast to move over less than 26C SSTs,
which should cause weakening. Emilia is forecast to weaken below
tropical storm strength by day 4, and will continue to spin down
after that as it moves over progressively colder water. Confidence
in this forecast is increasing due to the more consistent model
guidance that Emilia will absorb Fabio and not the other way around.

Emilia is currently moving very slowly toward the west-southwest.
A turn toward the northwest or north-northwest with an increase in
forward speed is expected Tuesday, and Emilia is expected to absorb
Fabio on Wednesday. After Fabio dissipates in about 48 h, Emilia
should generally move west-northwestward on the south side of a low-
to mid-level ridge to the north, with this general motion expected
for the remainder of the forecast period. Only very minor changes
were made to the previous NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 13.8N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 14.0N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 15.5N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.5N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 19.2N 119.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 20.2N 122.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 21.0N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 22.4N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 060244
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

...EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 114.3W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 114.3 West. Emilia is
moving toward the west-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A sharp turn
toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early
Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at a faster
forward speed on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Gradual
weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 060243
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.3W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 150SE 150SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.3W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 115.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 117.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.2N 119.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.2N 122.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.0N 124.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 129.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 114.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 006
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.8N 114.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 114.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.3N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.3N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.5N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.7N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.8N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.6N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.0N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.5N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 114.0W.
05AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1147
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS 1001 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E
(CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 052038
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that Emilia remains a sheared cyclone this
afternoon, with the low-level center still located near the
northeastern edge of a large convective mass with cloud tops to
near -80C. A recent ASCAT overpass showed winds of 40+ kt in the
southern semicircle, while the various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates remain in the 35-40 kt range. Based
on the scatterometer data, the initial intensity is increased to
45 kt. The initial wind radii were adjusted based on the ASCAT
data.

The latest global model runs continue to forecast that Emilia will
be the survivor in its interaction with the Tropical Storm Fabio to
the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this scenario and
the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear. The forecast
follows the trend of the intensity guidance and now forecasts a
peak intensity of 55 kt in 36 h. After that time, although the
shear is forecast to decrease, Emilia is expected to slowly weaken
as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures. The new
forecast is again an update of the previous forecast. Confidence
in this forecast is increasing due to the more consistent model
guidance that Emilia will absorb Fabio and not the other way around.

The interaction with Fabio should steer Emilia southward for the
next 12 h or so. After that, a turn toward the northwest or
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected as
Emilia starts to absorb Fabio. After Fabio dissipates in about 48
h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the south
side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, with this general
motion expected for the remainder of the forecast period. The new
forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 13.6N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.3N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 19.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 20.6N 123.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 22.0N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 052037
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 114.0W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 114.0W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 114.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.3N 114.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.8N 120.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.6N 123.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 114.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 052037
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

...EMILIA DRIFTING SOUTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL
STORM FABIO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 114.0W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 114.0 West. Emilia is
moving toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through this evening. A sharp turn toward
the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at a faster forward
speed on Wednesday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 114.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 114.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.9N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.4N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.9N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.2N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.6N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.8N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.5N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.5N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 114.1W.
05AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1092
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 051458
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that Emilia remains a sheared cyclone this
morning, with the low-level center located near the northeastern
edge of a large convective mass with cloud tops to near -85C. The
various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
nudged upward to the 35-40 kt range, and the initial intensity is
set at 40 kt.

The latest global model runs continue to suggest that Emilia will be
the survivor in interaction with the newly formed Tropical Storm
Fabio to the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this
scenario and the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear.
The forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and
forecasts a peak intensity of 60 kt in 48 h. After that time,
Emilia is expected to slowly weaken as it moves over decreasing sea
surface temperatures. The new forecast is basically an update of
the previous forecast. It should be noted that this forecast is low
confidence due to the possibility that Fabio might still end up as
the dominant cyclone.

Interaction with Fabio should steer Emilia south-southwestward to
southward for the next 12 h or so. After that, a turn toward the
northwest or north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is
expected as Emilia start to absorb Fabio. After Fabio dissipates in
about 60 h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the
south side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The first 96
h of the forecast track have been adjusted somewhat based on the GFS
and Canadian model forecasts of the interaction between Emilia and
Fabio.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 14.5N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 13.9N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 14.4N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.9N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 18.2N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 19.6N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 20.8N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 051456
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

...EMILIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 114.1W
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 114.1 West. Emilia is
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through today. A sharp turn toward
the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 051455
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 114.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 114.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.9N 114.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.4N 114.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 115.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.2N 117.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.6N 119.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.8N 122.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 114.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 114.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 114.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.3N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.3N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.4N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.9N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.3N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.6N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.1N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 114.1W.
05AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1075
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 050859
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Emilia has held relatively steady overnight. Recently, a large
burst of convection with cloud top temperatures of less than -80
degrees C has formed near the estimated center. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB both support maintaining the initial
intensity at 35 kt for this advisory cycle.

The intensity forecast continues to be quite uncertain. This is
because of a system to the east of Emilia, Invest 96E. Almost all
global and regional weather model guidance has trended toward making
Emilia the dominant system. As a result, dissipation is no longer
expected in a couple of days. Instead, Emilia is expected to take
advantage of the warm ocean waters and conducive environment and
strengthen through mid-week. By the end of the week, Emilia should
move into a more stable environment with cooling sea surface
temperature and gradually weaken. However, it is still possible
that Invest 96E forms, strengthens, and causes Emilia to dissipate
sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast peaks Emilia in 48 h at
60 kt and predicts the system to become a remnant low by 120 h.

The tropical storm is moving slowly to the south-southwest, at an
estimated 200/4 kt. The near-term track forecast is being
influenced by Invest 96E. Emilia is forecast to continue slowly
south-southwestward as the two systems rotate cyclonically around
each other. In about a day or so, Emilia should begin to lift to
the north-northwest and accelerate as it is steered by a ridge
centered over the southwestern United States. This motion should
gradually turn more northwestward by mid-week. The latest track
forecast has shifted to the west due to the initial location and has
been extended into the future out to 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 14.8N 114.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 14.3N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 14.3N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 15.3N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 16.4N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 19.3N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 21.6N 125.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 23.1N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 050858
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
0900 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 114.1W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 114.1W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.3N 114.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.3N 114.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 115.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 116.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.3N 120.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 21.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 114.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 050859
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

...TROPICAL STORM EMILIA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 114.1W
ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 114.1 West. Emilia is
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through today. A sharp turn toward
the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 050412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.08.2024

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 83.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.08.2024 0 28.3N 83.9W 992 53
1200UTC 05.08.2024 12 29.4N 83.6W 990 43
0000UTC 06.08.2024 24 30.7N 82.5W 996 39
1200UTC 06.08.2024 36 31.7N 81.3W 996 40
0000UTC 07.08.2024 48 32.0N 80.0W 992 42
1200UTC 07.08.2024 60 32.3N 78.6W 988 44
0000UTC 08.08.2024 72 33.1N 77.8W 984 45
1200UTC 08.08.2024 84 34.0N 77.6W 984 46
0000UTC 09.08.2024 96 35.1N 78.0W 989 41
1200UTC 09.08.2024 108 35.9N 78.0W 994 36
0000UTC 10.08.2024 120 37.8N 76.2W 996 42
1200UTC 10.08.2024 132 40.3N 72.6W 993 46
0000UTC 11.08.2024 144 43.4N 67.5W 984 47
1200UTC 11.08.2024 156 45.8N 62.8W 988 43
0000UTC 12.08.2024 168 47.2N 57.9W 993 35

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 125.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.08.2024 0 20.0N 125.4W 995 41
1200UTC 05.08.2024 12 20.5N 126.8W 998 41
0000UTC 06.08.2024 24 20.5N 128.4W 1001 38
1200UTC 06.08.2024 36 20.1N 130.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 07.08.2024 48 19.5N 131.5W 1007 25
1200UTC 07.08.2024 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 130.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.08.2024 0 13.8N 130.3W 1006 29
1200UTC 05.08.2024 12 14.8N 128.2W 1007 30
0000UTC 06.08.2024 24 16.2N 126.1W 1006 33
1200UTC 06.08.2024 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 105.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.08.2024 0 14.9N 105.3W 1007 24
1200UTC 05.08.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 05E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 113.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.08.2024 0 15.3N 113.4W 1005 27
1200UTC 05.08.2024 12 14.5N 112.8W 1004 31
0000UTC 06.08.2024 24 13.7N 112.9W 1002 32
1200UTC 06.08.2024 36 15.1N 113.5W 1001 36
0000UTC 07.08.2024 48 16.3N 117.0W 1000 35
1200UTC 07.08.2024 60 17.5N 118.4W 1000 35
0000UTC 08.08.2024 72 18.3N 121.6W 998 31
1200UTC 08.08.2024 84 19.5N 123.9W 999 30
0000UTC 09.08.2024 96 20.3N 126.4W 1000 30
1200UTC 09.08.2024 108 21.3N 128.0W 1001 28
0000UTC 10.08.2024 120 22.0N 130.4W 1003 30
1200UTC 10.08.2024 132 22.7N 132.4W 1006 28
0000UTC 11.08.2024 144 23.0N 134.0W 1009 26
1200UTC 11.08.2024 156 23.0N 136.8W 1012 25
0000UTC 12.08.2024 168 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050411


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 050253
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024

The organization of the tropical cyclone has improved on satellite
imagery since the previous advisory. The subjective CI numbers from
TAFB and SAB are both T-2.5/35 kt, and the CIMSS objective intensity
estimates range from 33 to 35 kt. Earlier ASCAT data from around 17
UTC had peak wind vectors of 31 kt, and the organization on
satellite imagery has certainty improved since that time, with the
cyclone becoming more compact. Based on the Dvorak estimates, the
depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Emilia with an initial
intensity of 35 kt.

The track forecast for Emilia is very dependent on a disturbance to
the east of the system (Invest 96E), which has a high chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone over the next day or so. Most of the
global models show both systems interacting with and rotating
cyclonically around each other. Emilia should move to the
south-southwest for the next 24 h, while it is located to the west
of 96E. After that time, the larger circulation of 96E should pull
the smaller Emilia toward the northwest or north-northwest. Only
minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. 96E
and Emilia should merge together into one cyclone over the next
couple of days, but it is uncertain which cyclone will be dominant
and which cyclone will be absorbed. This forecast assumes that 96E
will absorb Emilia, with Emilia dissipating beyond 48 h. However,
it is quite possible that the opposite occurs, with Emilia absorbing
96E. Either way, I expect a tropical cyclone (the merged system) to
be moving west-northwestward in 3 to 4 days, spreading tropical
storm conditions across the open waters of the Pacific. The ECMWF
model shows the two systems merging in 36-48 h, but the latest GFS
model predicts a longer binary interaction, with the merger
occurring in 3 to 4 days.

Until the disturbance to the east starts to interact with Emilia,
the environment appears favorable for intensification, and the
intensity guidance has trended upward this cycle. The new NHC
forecast shows Emilia strengthening to a 55 kt tropical storm in 36
h. This is near, or slightly below the middle of the intensity
guidance envelope. The thinking is that Emilia will merge with 96E
after that time, and 96E will likely be a tropical storm at the
time of the merger.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 15.0N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 14.2N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 14.3N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 050252
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 113.2W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emilia was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 113.2 West. Emilia is
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Monday. A sharp turn towards
the northwest or north-northwest is expected by early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. The
cyclone will then begin to interact with a large disturbance
approaching from the east, which is expected to cause this system to
dissipate or merge with the large disturbance in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 050252
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 113.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 113.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 042038
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024

The depression has changed little in organization today, as a broad
area of showers and thunderstorms with some modest banding is
present on the western side of the low-level circulation. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates and a partial ASCAT-C pass at 1747 UTC
both suggest that the initial intensity remains 30 kt this
afternoon.

The track forecast for TD Five-E is very dependent on a disturbance
to the east of the system (96E), which has a high chance of becoming
a tropical cyclone over the next day or so. Most of the global
models show both of these systems interacting with and rotating
cyclonically around each other. A variety of different model
solutions are depicted, from TD Five-E becoming absorbed by the
larger 96E, to TD Five-E remaining dominant, or a near equal merger
of both systems in the 48-60 h forecast time frame. For this cycle,
the NHC track forecast still shows TD Five-E being absorbed by 96E
and dissipating beyond 48 h, though this is far from certain. It is
possible one of the other two scenarios mentioned above could pan
out. Most of the track guidance due to the interaction initially
show a southward motion that swings rapidly back north or northwest
over the next couple of days before the vortex trackers cannot
distinguish between the two systems. As mentioned this morning
though, dynamical models historically handle interaction cases like
this poorly, so confidence in the track forecast is quite low,
despite the agreement between the dynamical guidance of this binary
interaction.

Until the disturbance to the east starts to interact with TD Five-E,
the environment appears relatively favorable for some
intensification, and the NHC intensity forecast shows strengthening
into a 45 kt tropical storm over the next 24-36 h, prior to the
system's forecast absorption. Note that the interaction of the two
systems also results in a dramatic expansion of the 34-kt wind radii
by 48 h, which should be considered more of the combined wind field
of both features.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 14.8N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 13.9N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 13.7N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.2N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 042037
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
2100 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 113.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 113.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.8N 113.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.9N 113.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.7N 113.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.2N 114.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 042037
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
200 PM MST Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING AND HAS AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 113.2W
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 113.2 West. The
depression is drifting toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a
slow generally southward motion is expected to continue into Monday.
A sharp turn back toward the north or northwest is possible by
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected and the depression forecast to become
a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow. The cyclone will then begin to
interact with a large disturbance approaching from the east, which
is expected to cause this system to dissipate or merge with the
large disturbance in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 041434
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.5N 113.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 112.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 041434
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 AM MST Sun Aug 04 2024

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 112.9W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 112.9 West. The
depression is nearly stationary, but a slow generally southward
motion is expected to begin later today and continue into Monday. A
sharp turn back toward the north is possible by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected today and the system is forecast to
become a tropical storm tonight. The cyclone will then begin to
interact with another larger disturbance approaching from the east,
which is expected to cause this system to dissipate in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 041435
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 AM MST Sun Aug 04 2024

Convection associated with a low located well offshore Mexico has
steadily increased in coverage and organization since yesterday.
Overnight ASCAT and first-light visible imagery indicate that the
cyclone also has a well-defined, if somewhat broad, circulation.
Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 2.0
at 1200 UTC, which support initiating advisories on the system as a
30 kt depression.

The depression is located within a very convectively active
environment over the east Pacific, deep-layer wind shear is low, and
SSTs are plenty warm, so strengthening is expected in the short
term. The biggest source of uncertainty for this forecast is an
expected interaction with a larger disturbance, currently Invest
96E, which is approaching from the east. Based on the available
global and hurricane dynamical model forecasts, the most likely
scenario is that 96E will be the dominant system. In that case, the
new depression will only have a short window to strengthen before it
is wrapped into and dissipates within the other circulation. Models
historically handle interaction cases like this poorly, so
confidence in the forecast is not high, despite the near universal
agreement between the dynamical guidance on this upcoming evolution.

The NHC forecast is very close to the consensus guidance through 24
to 36 h. After that, the model trackers appear to be getting fooled
by the close proximity of 96E and TD Five-E and are following the
stronger vortex instead. The NHC forecast is based heavily on a
broad consensus of model fields beyond 36 h and shows dissipation
occuring by 60 h. There is some chance that the depression could
persist longer than forecast if the two systems remain farther
apart, however there is not enough guidance with a trackable vortex
to justify an explicit forecast beyond what is currently shown.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 15.8N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 15.4N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 14.5N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 14.1N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky