Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FABIO-24 Off-shore from 05 Aug 2024 15:00 UTC to 07 Aug 2024 21:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FABIO-24

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

07/08 21:19 WTPN34PHNC072200

07/08 20:35 WTPZ41KNHC072033

07/08 20:33 WTPZ21KNHC072031

07/08 20:33 WTPZ31KNHC072032

07/08 15:53 WTPN34PHNC071600

07/08 14:42 WTPZ41KNHC071440

07/08 14:41 WTPZ31KNHC071439

07/08 14:40 WTPZ21KNHC071438

07/08 09:11 WTPN34PHNC071000

07/08 08:51 WTPZ41KNHC070850

07/08 08:50 WTPZ21KNHC070848

07/08 08:49 WTPZ31KNHC070848

07/08 03:21 WTPN34PHNC070400

07/08 02:49 WTPZ41KNHC070248

07/08 02:49 WTPZ31KNHC070247

07/08 02:48 WTPZ21KNHC070247

06/08 21:22 WTPN34PHNC062200

06/08 20:54 WTPZ41KNHC062053

06/08 20:53 WTPZ21KNHC062052

06/08 20:52 WTPZ31KNHC062051

06/08 15:19 WTPN34PHNC061600

06/08 14:49 WTPZ31KNHC061447

06/08 14:49 WTPZ41KNHC061448

06/08 14:48 WTPZ21KNHC061447

06/08 10:02 WTPN34PHNC061000

06/08 08:48 WTPZ41KNHC060846

06/08 08:47 WTPZ31KNHC060845

06/08 08:46 WTPZ21KNHC060845

06/08 03:46 WTPN34PHNC060400

06/08 02:44 WTPZ41KNHC060242

06/08 02:44 WTPZ31KNHC060242

06/08 02:43 WTPZ21KNHC060241

05/08 21:57 WTPN34PHNC052200

05/08 21:13 WTPZ41KNHC052111

05/08 20:34 WTPZ31KNHC052032

05/08 20:33 WTPZ21KNHC052032

05/08 15:32 WTPN34PHNC051600

05/08 14:51 WTPZ41KNHC051449

05/08 14:50 WTPZ21KNHC051448

05/08 14:50 WTPZ31KNHC051448

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 119.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 119.8W
---
REMARKS:
07AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 817 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS
1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 072033
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

This afternoon's satellite presentation shows that Fabio has
succumbed to the increasingly harsh surrounding environment. Only a
poorly defined surface circulation of low cloud elements is what
remains of the tropical cyclone. Therefore, Fabio no longer meets
the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC
advisory. The post-tropical cyclone's initial intensity is reduced
to 35 kt, based on the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates.
Further weakening is forecast in the short term before merging with
Emilia on Thursday.

Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be southwestward or
225/14 kt and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight, while it moves around the western periphery of Emilia's
circulation and eventually merges with Emilia on Thursday, or
sooner.

For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN03 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.4N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 072031
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024
2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 120.2W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 120.2W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 120.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 072032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...FABIO BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 120.2W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio
was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 120.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 16 mph (26
km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the
post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN03 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 118.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 118.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.7N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 119.7W.07AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06E
(FABIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 071440
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Fabio is barely a tropical cyclone this morning. Water vapor imagery
shows dry air wrapping into the circulation from the west, and
vertical wind shear associated with nearby Tropical Storm Emilia
continues to disrupt the convective organization of Fabio.
Currently, the storm is only producing small bursts of sheared
convection over 100 n mi to the northeast of its exposed low-level
center. A blend of the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt.

Passive microwave and proxy-visible satellite images indicate Fabio
is now moving south of due west (265/18 kt). This general motion
should continue through tonight while Fabio interacts with the outer
circulation of Emilia. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the south of the previous one based on recent motion trends.
Given the hostile environmental conditions described above, Fabio
appears unlikely to become better organized in the short term. The
NHC forecast shows Fabio becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 12 h
before merging with Emilia on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 20.1N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.7N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 071439
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...SHEARED FABIO EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH EMILIA ON THURSDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 119.6W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 119.6 West. Fabio is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A quick westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight weakening is forecast until Fabio merges with Tropical Storm
Emilia on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 071438
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024
1500 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 121.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 119.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 117.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 117.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.9N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.8N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 117.9W.
07AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 732 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS
1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 070850
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Thunderstorms associated with Fabio collapsed overnight and small
bursts of convection are forming to the northeast of the exposed
center. Objective and subjective Dvorak estimates have trended
weaker this cycle, and the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.
The storm is racing off to the west at 280/21 kt. Fabio should turn
toward the west-southwest later today as the cyclone moves closer to
Tropical Storm Emilia. The official track forecast is unchanged
from the previous advisory.

Vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures should
continue to weaken Fabio. Global models are still showing the
vortex being absorbed into Emilia's circulation in a day or so.
The intensity forecast has been nudged downward slightly from the
earlier prediction due to the weaker initial intensity.
Dissipation is still expected on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 20.6N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 20.9N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.8N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 070848
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024
0900 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 117.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 117.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 117.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.9N 119.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.8N 121.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 070848
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...FABIO RACING WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 117.9W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 117.9 West. Fabio is
moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest with a slower forward speed is expected later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so
until Fabio merges with Tropical Storm Emilia.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 114.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 114.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.6N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.9N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 115.7W.
07AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 786 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E
(EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 070248
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

Deep convection associated with Fabio has decreased significantly
since the previous advisory, with most of the convection off to
the northeast of the low-level center. The latest subjective
intensity estimates are 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and recent
objective intensity estimates from CIMSS range from 35 to 53 kt.
The intensity is lowered a bit to 45 kt, which is a compromise of
the data.

Moderate westerly wind shear should continue to be an issue for the
next 12 h or so. After that, Fabio will increasingly interact with
Emilia as SSTs along Fabio's path decrease to below 26C in 18 to 24
h. These factors are likely to cause some additional weakening
before Fabio dissipates or merges with Emilia.

Fabio should move on a west-northwest course over the next 24 h.
The 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF models are both forecasting Fabio to
dissipate or merge with Emilia in 24 to 36 h. Therefore, the NHC
forecast now calls for dissipation by hour 36.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 20.0N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 20.6N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 070247
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...FABIO WEAKENS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
EMILIA TO ITS SOUTH...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 115.4W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 115.4 West. Fabio is
moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A motion toward
the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward
the west later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so until Fabio
merges with Emilia.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 070247
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024
0300 UTC WED AUG 07 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.4W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.4W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.6N 117.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 115.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BEVEN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 113.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 113.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.2N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.0N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.9N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 114.2W.
06AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 861 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS
997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 062053
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 PM MST Tue Aug 06 2024

Fabio is showing indications of slight weakening this afternoon,
possibly associated with its continued close proximity to Tropical
Storm Emilia. Cloud-top temperatures have warmed, and visible
satellite imagery indicates that the center has become partially
exposed on the west side of the storm. Subjective and objective
intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS, respectively, also
suggest that Fabio has weakened slightly. Based on these estimates
and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity estimate is
decreased to 50 kt for this advisory.

Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or
300/18 kt. The uncertainty in the track forecast remains higher than
usual, due to the ongoing interaction between Fabio and Emilia. The
current forecast favors that Emilia will absorb Fabio, as shown by
the GFS and the ECMWF. The forecast timing of Fabio's demise is in
between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The GFS holds onto Fabio
about a day longer than the ECMWF solution. The current forecast is
slightly to the north of the prior forecast and similar to the
best-performing consensus aids TVCN and HCCA.

It appears that the upper-level outflow from Emilia is impacting
Fabio, and this should preclude significant strengthening. None of
the better performing intensity guidance aids indicate significant
strengthening, and the new NHC forecast now shows Fabio weakening
steadily before merging with Emilia. This solution is close to the
IVCN and HCCA consensus models, as well as the prior forecast.
However, given the track forecast uncertainty, a change in the
forecast philosophy is not out of the question for subsequent
advisories.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 19.2N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 21.0N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 20.9N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 062052
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024
2100 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.9W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 113.9W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.0N 119.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.9N 122.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 062051
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 PM MST Tue Aug 06 2024

...FABIO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH EMILIA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 113.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 113.9 West. Fabio is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and is
expected to turn to the west during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so until Fabio
merges with Emilia.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 111.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 111.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.7N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.3N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.7N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 112.2W.
06AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 978 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z
IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 061447
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024

...FABIO HOLDS STEADY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 112.0W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 112.0 West. Fabio is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours until Fabio merges with Tropical Storm Emilia on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 061448
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024

Fabio has remained steady this morning despite its close proximity
to Tropical Storm Emilia. Cold cloud-top temperatures associated
with the central dense overcast area that developed overnight have
persisted this morning. Further, subjective and objective intensity
estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS continue to suggest that Fabio is
holding its own. Based on these estimates and recent satellite
trends, the initial intensity estimate is held steady at 55 kt.

Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or
300/15 kt. Uncertainty remains among the track guidance solutions,
particularly related to the interaction between Fabio and Emilia.
The current forecast favors the ECMWF solution that Emilia will
absorb Fabio, and the current forecast shows this merger occurring
in about 36 hours. However, the GFS shows two cyclones that remain
distinct and rotate around each other during the next three to four
days. The current forecast leans toward a merger and is similar to
the prior advisory and better-performing consensus aids.

While Fabio remains in a favorable shear and thermodynamic
environment, the proximity to Emilia should preclude significant
strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast now shows Fabio
remaining steady for the next 24 h before weakening slightly and
subsequently merging into Emilia. This is close to the IVCN and
HCCA consensus aids. However, based on the divergent solutions in
the global models, a change in the forecast philosophy could be
required in subsequent advisories.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 17.7N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.7N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.3N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 19.7N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 061447
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 135SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.7N 114.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 117.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 120.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 75SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 112.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 004
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 110.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 110.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.9N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.6N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.6N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 111.0W.
06AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1046
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
060600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS
19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC).
REFER TO REMNANTS 04E (DANIEL) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC). REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 060846
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024

Fabio has become better organized this evening. The satellite
presentation reveals a developing deep convective band wrapping
around the southern portion of the cyclone, and a small Central
Dense Overcast (CDO) with cold cloud tops of -83C that appears to be
forming over the surface center. A blend of the Dvorak satellite
and UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates, and a recent SATCON
intensity analysis yields 55 kt for this advisory.

A low shear and moist thermodynamic environment should allow Fabio
to strengthen before the cyclone directly interacts and becomes
absorbed by Emilia. The deterministic guidance also shows an
upper-level low moving toward Fabio from the northeast and producing
favorable upper diffluent flow over the northeast portion of the
cyclone. The new NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the previous
one and now shows Fabio's peak intensity at 60 kt, which is close to
the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. It's worth noting, however, that
the initialization of the two tropical cyclones in the GFS seems to
be the most reasonable based on the structure and intensity of both
cyclones. Therefore, a change in the forecast philosophy may be
deemed necessary in subsequent advisories.

Fabio's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or
295/15 kt. The global models show that Fabio will move between
Emilia to the west-southwest and a mid-tropospheric ridge extending
from the west Gulf of Mexico to the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. The models also generally
agree that Emilia will capture and absorb Fabio, but the exact
timing for which this will occur is in some doubt. The
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET and the COAMPS-TC show this evolution taking place
within 36 hours, while the GFS run indicates the two tropical
cyclones cyclonically orbiting around each other during the next
three to four days. The best solution at this time is to show a
similar scenario to the previous advisory and hedge toward the
better-performing consensus guidance with Fabio becoming absorbed by
Emilia by mid-week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 18.6N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 18.6N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060845
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024

...FABIO A LITTLE STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 110.8W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 110.8 West. Fabio is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm
Emilia on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 060845
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024
0900 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.8W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 135SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 110.8W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.6N 116.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.6N 119.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 110.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 003
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 109.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 109.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.3N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.9N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.4N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 110.1W.
06AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z. REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
03E (CARLOTTA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC). REFER TO REMNANTS 04E
(DANIEL) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E
(EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 060242
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Fabio has become better organized today with a larger area of deep
convection becoming more persistent. Based on microwave data from
the past 6 h, the center of Fabio appears to be located underneath
the northern portion of the convective area. The latest subjective
Dvorak estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, while the
latest objective intensity estimates range from 37 kt to 55 kt.
The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory, but
that could be a bit conservative.

The initial motion is now 300/16 kt. Fabio's motion should be
dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the
west-southwest, with Fabio expected to move west-northwestward at a
similar forward speed around the north side of Emilia for the next
36 h or so. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the
previous track.

Some strengthening could occur in the next 12 h or so. After that,
no additional strengthening is expected as Fabio moves closer to
Emilia. This forecast assumes that Fabio will be absorbed by Emilia
Wednesday or Wednesday night. Confidence in this forecast scenario
is increasing due to the more consistent global model solutions that
Emilia will absorb Fabio.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.3N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.3N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 17.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 18.4N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 060242
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

...FABIO STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 109.8W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 109.8 West. Fabio is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight.
Slight weakening is possible by Tuesday night, and the system is
expected to be absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 060241
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024
0300 UTC TUE AUG 06 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.3N 112.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.9N 115.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.4N 117.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 002
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 107.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 107.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.9N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.9N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.2N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 108.4W.
05AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1178
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 052111
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center of Fabio is on
the north side of an area of strong, but loosely curved, convective
bands. Scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar data received
since the last advisory indicate that the circulation is closed and
that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in the eastern semicircle.
This is in good agreement with satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB, and it is the initial intensity for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 310/13 kt. Fabio's motion should be
dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the
west-southwest, with Fabio expected to move northwestward and
westward at an increased forward speed around the north side of
Emilia for the next 36-48 h. The new forecast track has only
minor changes from the previous track.

Some strengthening should occur in the next 12 h or so. After
that, the intensity forecast is mainly based on the global model
forecasts that Fabio will wind up being absorbed into Emilia, with
the various model times of this absorption being between 12-36 h.
The official forecast shows Fabio dissipating between 36-48 h in
best agreement with the GFS model. However, the cyclone could
dissipate at any time before then. Confidence in this forecast is
increasing due to the more consistent global model solutions that
Emilia will absorb Fabio.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 15.6N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 18.2N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 052032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

...FABIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 108.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 108.1 West. Fabio is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion
is expected to continue with a faster forward speed through
tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday,
followed by a turn toward the west on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected this afternoon and tonight. After
that, Fabio is expected to weaken, and the system is expected to be
absorbed by Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 052032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024
2100 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.1W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.1W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.9N 110.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 116.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 108.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO) WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 106.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 106.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.3N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.6N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.2N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.0N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 107.1W.
05AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FABIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1254
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03E (CARLOTTA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 04E (DANIEL) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (EMILIA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 051449
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the disturbance
located well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico has
continued to become better organized, and that it now has sufficient
convection and a well-enough defined circulation to be considered a
tropical cyclone. With an initial intensity of 35 kt based on
earlier scatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Storm Fabio.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 310/10. Fabio's motion
should be dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to
the west, with Fabio expected to move northwestward and westward at
an increased forward speed around the north side of Emilia through
the next 48 h.

The intensity forecast is based on the global model forecasts
that Fabio will wind up being absorbed into Emilia in the not
too distant future. Some strengthening is expected during the next
12-24 h. After that, the global models are forecasting that Fabio
will dissipate as it is absorbed into Emilia by the 60 h point.
The intensity forecast and dissipation time lean toward the GFS and
Canadian model solutions, which keep Fabio separate from Emilia
through about 48 h. This forecast is low confidence due to the
possibility that Fabio could try to absorb Emilia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 14.8N 106.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.3N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 17.6N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 18.2N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 051448
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062024
1500 UTC MON AUG 05 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.3N 109.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.6N 112.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 115.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 106.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 051448
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

...TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 106.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 106.9 West. Fabio is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a faster forward speed today. A turn
toward the west is expected on Tuesday, with this motion continuing
through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected today. After that, Fabio is
expected to weaken, and the system is expected to be absorbed by
Tropical Storm Emilia Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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