Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for MARIA-24 in Japan from 07 Aug 2024 00:00 UTC to 12 Aug 2024 18:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for MARIA-24

in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

12/08 20:41 WTPN31PGTW122100

12/08 20:41 WTPN51PGTW122100

12/08 19:48 WTPQ30RJTD121800

12/08 18:38 WTPQ50RJTD121800

12/08 15:42 WTPQ50RJTD121500

12/08 13:45 WTPQ30RJTD121200

12/08 13:45 WTPN51PGTW121500

12/08 12:49 WTPQ50RJTD121200

12/08 12:48 WTJP21RJTD121200

12/08 09:46 WTPQ50RJTD120900

12/08 07:51 WTPQ30RJTD120600

12/08 07:51 WTPN51PGTW120900

12/08 06:44 WTPQ50RJTD120600

12/08 06:44 WTJP21RJTD120600

12/08 03:47 WTPQ50RJTD120300

12/08 01:54 WTPQ30RJTD120000

12/08 01:33 WTPN31PGTW120300

12/08 01:33 WTPN51PGTW120300

12/08 00:43 WTPQ50RJTD120000

12/08 00:42 WTJP21RJTD120000

11/08 21:50 WTJP31RJTD112100

11/08 21:50 WTPQ50RJTD112100

11/08 19:47 WTPQ30RJTD111800

11/08 19:38 WTPN51PGTW112100

11/08 18:48 WTPQ50RJTD111800

11/08 18:47 WTJP21RJTD111800

11/08 15:52 WTPQ50RJTD111500

11/08 15:52 WTJP31RJTD111500

11/08 13:39 WTPN51PGTW111500

11/08 13:20 WTPQ30RJTD111200

11/08 12:50 WTPQ50RJTD111200

11/08 12:49 WTJP21RJTD111200

11/08 09:52 WTJP31RJTD110900

11/08 09:52 WTPQ50RJTD110900

11/08 07:40 WTPQ30RJTD110600

11/08 07:36 WTPN51PGTW110900

11/08 06:51 WTPQ50RJTD110600

11/08 06:50 WTJP21RJTD110600

11/08 03:49 WTJP31RJTD110300

11/08 03:49 WTPQ50RJTD110300

11/08 01:53 WTPN31PGTW110300

11/08 01:53 WTPN51PGTW110300

11/08 01:26 WTPQ30RJTD110000

11/08 00:48 WTPQ50RJTD110000

11/08 00:47 WTJP21RJTD110000

10/08 21:49 WTJP31RJTD102100

10/08 21:49 WTPQ50RJTD102100

10/08 19:40 WTPQ30RJTD101800

10/08 19:35 WTPN51PGTW102100

10/08 18:47 WTPQ50RJTD101800

10/08 18:47 WTJP21RJTD101800

10/08 15:49 WTJP31RJTD101500

10/08 15:48 WTPQ50RJTD101500

10/08 13:57 WTPQ30RJTD101200

10/08 13:49 WTPN51PGTW101500

10/08 13:47 WTPN31PGTW101500

10/08 12:50 WTPQ50RJTD101200

10/08 12:49 WTJP21RJTD101200

10/08 09:41 WTJP31RJTD100900

10/08 09:41 WTPQ50RJTD100900

10/08 07:41 WTPN51PGTW100900

10/08 07:40 WTPN31PGTW100900

10/08 07:17 WTPQ30RJTD100600

10/08 06:47 WTPQ50RJTD100600

10/08 06:46 WTJP21RJTD100600

10/08 03:41 WTPQ50RJTD100300

10/08 03:41 WTJP31RJTD100300

10/08 01:16 WTPQ30RJTD100000

10/08 00:49 WTPQ50RJTD100000

10/08 00:48 WTJP21RJTD100000

09/08 21:48 WTPQ50RJTD092100

09/08 21:48 WTJP31RJTD092100

09/08 19:55 WTPN51PGTW092100

09/08 19:54 WTPN31PGTW092100

09/08 19:43 WTPQ30RJTD091800

09/08 18:47 WTPQ50RJTD091800

09/08 18:46 WTJP21RJTD091800

09/08 15:47 WTPQ50RJTD091500

09/08 15:46 WTJP31RJTD091500

09/08 14:19 WTPN51PGTW091500

09/08 13:58 WTPQ30RJTD091200

09/08 12:49 WTPQ50RJTD091200

09/08 12:48 WTJP21RJTD091200

09/08 09:45 WTJP31RJTD090900

09/08 09:45 WTPQ50RJTD090900

09/08 07:55 WTPN51PGTW090900

09/08 07:22 WTPQ30RJTD090600

09/08 06:44 WTPQ50RJTD090600

09/08 06:44 WTJP21RJTD090600

09/08 03:43 WTJP31RJTD090300

09/08 03:42 WTPQ50RJTD090300

09/08 02:02 WTPN51PGTW090300

09/08 01:34 WTPQ30RJTD090000

09/08 00:51 WTPQ50RJTD090000

09/08 00:51 WTJP21RJTD090000

08/08 21:45 WTJP31RJTD082100

08/08 21:45 WTPQ50RJTD082100

08/08 20:16 WTPN51PGTW082100

08/08 19:36 WTPQ30RJTD081800

08/08 18:49 WTPQ50RJTD081800

08/08 18:49 WTJP21RJTD081800

08/08 16:31 WTPN51PGTW081500

08/08 16:26 WTPN31PGTW081500

08/08 15:48 WTJP31RJTD081500

08/08 15:48 WTPQ50RJTD081500

08/08 13:56 WTPQ30RJTD081200

08/08 12:50 WTPQ50RJTD081200

08/08 12:49 WTJP21RJTD081200

08/08 09:40 WTJP31RJTD080900

08/08 09:40 WTPQ50RJTD080900

08/08 08:33 WTPN51PGTW080900

08/08 07:37 WTPQ30RJTD080600

08/08 06:47 WTPQ50RJTD080600

08/08 06:46 WTJP21RJTD080600

08/08 03:46 WTPQ50RJTD080300

08/08 03:45 WTJP31RJTD080300

08/08 01:37 WTPN51PGTW080300

08/08 01:22 WTPQ30RJTD080000

08/08 00:45 WTPQ50RJTD080000

08/08 00:44 WTJP21RJTD080000

07/08 21:42 WTPQ50RJTD072100

07/08 20:17 WTPN51PGTW072100

07/08 19:58 WTPQ30RJTD071800

07/08 19:17 WTPQ50RJTD071800

07/08 19:17 WTJP21RJTD071800

07/08 14:12 WTPN51PGTW071500

07/08 08:20 WTPN51PGTW070900

07/08 02:00 WTPN31PGTW070300

07/08 02:00 WTPN51PGTW070300

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 024
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 40.8N 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 40.8N 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 41.4N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 41.6N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 41.0N 138.7E.
12AUG24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
112 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISLOCATED TO THE WEST OF
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240812194543
2024081218 06W MARIA 024 03 335 08 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 408N 1388E 025
T012 414N 1384E 020
T024 416N 1385E 015
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 024
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 40.8N 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 40.8N 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 41.4N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 41.6N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 41.0N 138.7E.
12AUG24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
112 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISLOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE REMNANTS OVER NORTHERN HONSHU. THE LOCAL
ANIMATED RADAR LOOP ALSO CONFIRMS DECREASING CONVECTIVE SUPPORT
FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN SEA OF
JAPAN AS DRY AIR CONTINUES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTRAL CORE FROM
THE WEST. RECENT SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES ASSESS
INTENSITIES OF TD 06W BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. DUE TO THE FORECASTED
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, CONTINUED DISSPATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE TO BELOW 26 C AND ENHANCED NEGATIVE INFLUENCES FROM DRY AIR
INTO THE INNER CORE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TD 06W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 999 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 8 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 339N1459E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081106 376N1439E 50
0624081112 378N1433E 55
0624081112 378N1433E 55
0624081118 384N1426E 55
0624081118 384N1426E 55
0624081200 390N1417E 55
0624081200 390N1417E 55
0624081206 398N1399E 35
0624081212 401N1392E 25
0624081218 408N1388E 25
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TD LOCATED AT 41N 139E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
MARIA (2405) HAS WEAKENED TO TD INTENSITY. THE TD IS LOCATED AT
41N, 139E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.
NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 41N 139E
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA =

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 40.5N 139.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 41.3N 138.7E 25NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 131500UTC 41.7N 138.6E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MARIA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 40.4N, 139.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240812130129
2024081212 06W MARIA 023 02 300 10 SATL RADR 060
T000 403N 1398E 035 R034 080 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 410N 1390E 030
T024 415N 1389E 025
T036 414N 1393E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 40.3N 139.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 40.3N 139.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 41.0N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 41.5N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 41.4N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 40.5N 139.6E.
12AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM
WEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 339N1459E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081106 376N1439E 50
0624081112 378N1433E 55
0624081112 378N1433E 55
0624081118 384N1426E 55
0624081118 384N1426E 55
0624081200 390N1417E 55
0624081200 390N1417E 55
0624081206 398N1410E 45
0624081212 403N1398E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 40.4N 139.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 41.2N 138.7E 25NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 131200UTC 41.7N 138.6E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 998 HPA
AT 40.4N 139.8E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 41.2N 138.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 41.7N 138.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 40.0N 140.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 41.1N 138.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 130900UTC 41.7N 138.7E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MARIA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 39.7N, 140.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT09. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT18 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND LOW SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT18. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240812070010
2024081206 06W MARIA 022 02 325 10 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 398N 1410E 045 R034 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 025 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 410N 1398E 035 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 416N 1393E 025
T036 415N 1397E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 39.8N 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.8N 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 41.0N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 41.6N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 41.5N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 40.1N 140.7E.
12AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 37 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 995 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 339N1459E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081106 376N1439E 50
0624081112 378N1433E 55
0624081112 378N1433E 55
0624081118 384N1426E 55
0624081118 384N1426E 55
0624081200 390N1417E 55
0624081200 390N1417E 55
0624081206 398N1410E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 39.7N 140.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 40.9N 138.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 130600UTC 41.7N 138.7E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 994 HPA
AT 39.7N 140.8E HONSHU MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 40.9N 138.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 41.7N 138.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2405 MARIA (2405) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 39.3N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121500UTC 40.7N 139.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 130300UTC 41.9N 139.1E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 39.0N, 141.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT09 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 39.0N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.0N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 40.4N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 41.3N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 42.1N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 39.4N 141.2E.
12AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS 984 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240812012226
2024081200 06W MARIA 021 01 305 12 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 390N 1417E 045 R034 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 404N 1399E 035 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 413N 1393E 025
T036 421N 1391E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 39.0N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.0N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 40.4N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 41.3N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 42.1N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 39.4N 141.2E.
12AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS 984 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 339N1459E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081106 376N1439E 50
0624081112 378N1433E 55
0624081112 378N1433E 55
0624081118 383N1429E 50
0624081118 383N1429E 50
0624081200 390N1417E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 39.0N 141.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121200UTC 40.4N 139.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 130000UTC 41.6N 139.0E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 990 HPA
AT 39.0N 141.7E HONSHU MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 40.4N 139.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 41.6N 139.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 112100
WARNING 112100.
WARNING VALID 122100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 985 HPA
AT 38.7N 142.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 40.2N 139.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 41.2N 138.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 38.7N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120900UTC 40.2N 139.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 122100UTC 41.2N 138.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 131800UTC 41.7N 139.0E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 38.3N, 142.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE
BECOME OBSCURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN
ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT06.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240811192913
2024081118 06W MARIA 020 01 330 06 SATL 025
T000 383N 1429E 050 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 396N 1409E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 407N 1397E 030
T036 415N 1393E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 38.3N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.3N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.6N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 40.7N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 41.5N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 142.4E.
11AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 339N1459E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081106 376N1439E 50
0624081112 378N1433E 55
0624081112 378N1433E 55
0624081118 383N1429E 50
0624081118 383N1429E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 38.3N 142.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120600UTC 40.0N 140.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 121800UTC 40.9N 139.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131800UTC 41.7N 139.0E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 38.3N 142.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 40.0N 140.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 40.9N 139.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 41.7N 139.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 38.0N 143.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120300UTC 39.6N 140.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 121500UTC 40.7N 139.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 131200UTC 41.1N 138.4E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 111500
WARNING 111500.
WARNING VALID 121500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 38.0N 143.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 39.6N 140.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 40.7N 139.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240811132012
2024081112 06W MARIA 019 01 295 05 SATL RADR 020
T000 378N 1433E 055 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 388N 1417E 045 R034 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 399N 1400E 030
T036 410N 1385E 025
T048 413N 1376E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 37.8N 143.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 143.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 38.8N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 39.9N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 41.0N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 41.3N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 38.1N 142.9E.
11AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
111200Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 339N1459E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081018 368N1451E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081106 376N1439E 50
0624081112 378N1433E 55
0624081112 378N1433E 55
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 37.7N, 143.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT12. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 37.7N 143.4E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120000UTC 39.2N 141.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 121200UTC 40.4N 139.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131200UTC 41.1N 138.4E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 37.7N 143.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 39.2N 141.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 40.4N 139.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 41.1N 138.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 37.6N 143.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 38.8N 142.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 40.3N 139.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 37.6N 143.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 112100UTC 38.8N 142.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 120900UTC 40.3N 139.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 130600UTC 41.5N 138.5E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 37.8N, 143.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT24. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240811070215
2024081106 06W MARIA 018 01 295 05 SATL RADR 020
T000 376N 1439E 045 R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 385N 1424E 040 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 396N 1406E 030
T036 406N 1389E 025
T048 409N 1376E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 37.6N 143.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.6N 143.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 38.5N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.6N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 40.6N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 40.9N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 37.8N 143.5E.
11AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z
IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 339N1459E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081018 368N1452E 45
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081100 374N1445E 50
0624081106 376N1439E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 37.8N 143.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 111800UTC 38.5N 142.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 120600UTC 40.2N 140.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 130600UTC 41.5N 138.5E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 110600
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 37.8N 143.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 38.5N 142.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 40.2N 140.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 41.5N 138.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 110300
WARNING 110300.
WARNING VALID 120300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 37.6N 144.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 38.0N 142.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 39.4N 140.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 37.6N 144.3E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 280NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 111500UTC 38.0N 142.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 120300UTC 39.4N 140.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 130000UTC 41.0N 138.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 140000UTC 40.9N 137.6E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 017/
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 37.5N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.5N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 38.2N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 39.4N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 40.7N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 41.3N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 37.7N 144.4E.
11AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240811012710
2024081100 06W MARIA 017 01 330 08 SATL 040
T000 375N 1447E 045 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 382N 1435E 040 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 394N 1417E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 407N 1397E 025
T048 413N 1386E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 37.5N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.5N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 38.2N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 39.4N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 40.7N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 41.3N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 37.7N 144.4E.
11AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 339N1459E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081018 368N1452E 45
0624081100 375N1447E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 37.6N, 144.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 37.6N 144.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 280NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 111200UTC 37.8N 143.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 120000UTC 39.0N 141.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 130000UTC 41.0N 138.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 140000UTC 40.9N 137.6E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 110000
WARNING 110000.
WARNING VALID 120000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 37.6N 144.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 37.8N 143.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 39.0N 141.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 41.0N 138.3E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 40.9N 137.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 102100
WARNING 102100.
WARNING VALID 112100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 37.3N 144.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 37.8N 143.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 38.5N 142.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 37.3N 144.8E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 280NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 110900UTC 37.8N 143.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 112100UTC 38.5N 142.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 121800UTC 41.0N 138.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 131800UTC 41.3N 137.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 141800UTC 40.5N 137.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 36.9N, 144.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN
BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, STRONG VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT36 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240810192309
2024081018 06W MARIA 016 01 350 06 SATL 040
T000 368N 1452E 045 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 375N 1442E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 384N 1427E 040 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 397N 1409E 030
T048 407N 1392E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 36.8N 145.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 145.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 37.5N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 38.4N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.7N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 40.7N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 37.0N 144.9E.
10AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 339N1459E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081018 368N1452E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 36.9N 144.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 280NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 110600UTC 37.4N 143.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 111800UTC 38.2N 142.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 121800UTC 41.0N 138.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 131800UTC 41.3N 137.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 141800UTC 40.5N 137.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 36.9N 144.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 37.4N 143.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 38.2N 142.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 41.0N 138.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 41.3N 137.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 40.5N 137.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 101500
WARNING 101500.
WARNING VALID 111500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 985 HPA
AT 36.6N 144.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 37.1N 144.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 37.7N 142.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 36.6N 144.8E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 280NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 110300UTC 37.1N 144.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 111500UTC 37.7N 142.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 121200UTC 40.0N 138.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 131200UTC 41.0N 136.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 141200UTC 40.7N 135.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 36.4N, 145.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240810131823
2024081012 06W MARIA 015 01 350 06 SATL 030
T000 362N 1453E 050 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 370N 1444E 055 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 378N 1430E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 387N 1415E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 396N 1397E 030
T072 408N 1366E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 36.2N 145.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.2N 145.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 37.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 38.7N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 39.6N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 40.8N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 36.4N 145.1E.
10AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS
979 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 339N1459E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081006 356N1454E 45
0624081012 362N1453E 50
0624081012 362N1453E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 36.2N 145.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.2N 145.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 36.4N 145.1E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 280NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 110000UTC 37.1N 144.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 111200UTC 37.5N 143.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 121200UTC 40.0N 138.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 131200UTC 41.0N 136.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 141200UTC 40.7N 135.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 985 HPA
AT 36.4N 145.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 37.1N 144.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 37.5N 143.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 40.0N 138.7E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 41.0N 136.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 40.7N 135.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 100900
WARNING 100900.
WARNING VALID 110900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 985 HPA
AT 36.3N 145.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 36.8N 144.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 37.2N 143.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 36.3N 145.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 102100UTC 36.8N 144.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 110900UTC 37.2N 143.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 120600UTC 39.4N 140.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 130600UTC 40.8N 136.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 140600UTC 40.8N 134.8E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240810071549
2024081006 06W MARIA 014 01 335 11 SATL 030
T000 360N 1450E 045 R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 371N 1443E 050 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 379N 1433E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 388N 1419E 035 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 398N 1401E 030
T072 413N 1368E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 36.0N 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 37.1N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 37.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 38.8N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.8N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 41.3N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 36.3N 144.8E.
10AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z
IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 339N1459E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081000 350N1456E 50
0624081006 360N1450E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 36.0N 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 37.1N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 37.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 38.8N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.8N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 41.3N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 36.3N 144.8E.
10AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z
IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 36.0N, 145.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 36.0N 145.5E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 101800UTC 36.6N 144.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 110600UTC 37.2N 143.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 120600UTC 39.4N 140.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 130600UTC 40.8N 136.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 140600UTC 40.8N 134.8E 175NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 100600
WARNING 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 985 HPA
AT 36.0N 145.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 36.6N 144.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 37.2N 143.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 39.4N 140.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 40.8N 136.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 40.8N 134.8E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 35.6N 145.9E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 101500UTC 36.4N 144.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 110300UTC 37.2N 144.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 120000UTC 38.8N 141.4E 115NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 130000UTC 40.8N 137.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 140000UTC 41.4N 137.1E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 100300
WARNING 100300.
WARNING VALID 110300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 985 HPA
AT 35.6N 145.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 36.4N 144.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 37.2N 144.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 35.0N, 146.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 35.0N 146.0E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 250NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 101200UTC 36.2N 144.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 110000UTC 37.1N 144.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 120000UTC 38.8N 141.4E 115NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 130000UTC 40.8N 137.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 140000UTC 41.4N 137.1E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 985 HPA
AT 35.0N 146.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 36.2N 144.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 37.1N 144.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 38.8N 141.4E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 40.8N 137.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 41.4N 137.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 34.7N 146.0E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 100900UTC 35.9N 145.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 102100UTC 36.9N 144.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 111800UTC 38.0N 142.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 121800UTC 40.2N 137.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 131800UTC 41.1N 136.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 141800UTC 41.9N 135.6E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 092100
WARNING 092100.
WARNING VALID 102100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 34.7N 146.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 35.9N 145.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 36.9N 144.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240809193152
2024080918 06W MARIA 012 01 005 13 SATL 040
T000 341N 1460E 045 R034 120 NE QD 125 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 356N 1454E 050 R050 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 365N 1448E 045 R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 374N 1439E 040 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 381N 1424E 035 R034 120 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 399N 1388E 025
T096 406N 1369E 015
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 34.1N 146.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 146.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.6N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 36.5N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 37.4N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 38.1N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 39.9N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 40.6N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 145.8E.
09AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 442 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080906 321N1460E 60
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080912 328N1459E 55
0624080918 341N1460E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 34.1N 146.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 146.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.6N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 36.5N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 34.1N, 146.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT60. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 34.1N 146.0E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 100600UTC 35.7N 145.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 101800UTC 36.7N 144.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 111800UTC 38.0N 142.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 121800UTC 40.2N 137.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 131800UTC 41.1N 136.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 141800UTC 41.9N 135.6E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 091800
WARNING 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 34.1N 146.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 35.7N 145.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 36.7N 144.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 38.0N 142.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 40.2N 137.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 41.1N 136.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 41.9N 135.6E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 33.7N 146.2E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 100300UTC 35.4N 145.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 101500UTC 36.3N 144.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 111200UTC 37.6N 142.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 121200UTC 39.8N 138.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 131200UTC 40.9N 137.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 141200UTC 41.6N 136.3E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 091500
WARNING 091500.
WARNING VALID 101500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 33.7N 146.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 35.4N 145.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 36.3N 144.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240809140501
2024080912 06W MARIA 011 01 360 08 SATL 060
T000 329N 1459E 055 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 345N 1457E 055 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 360N 1449E 055 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 370N 1439E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 377N 1427E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 390N 1396E 035 R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 400N 1371E 035 R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 407N 1350E 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 32.9N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.9N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.5N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 36.0N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.0N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 37.7N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 39.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 40.0N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 40.7N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 33.3N 145.9E.
09AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1459E 60
0624080906 321N1459E 60
0624080912 329N1459E 55
0624080912 329N1459E 55
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 33.2N, 145.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT60. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 33.2N 145.9E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 100000UTC 35.1N 145.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 101200UTC 36.2N 144.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 111200UTC 37.6N 142.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 121200UTC 39.8N 138.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 131200UTC 40.9N 137.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 141200UTC 41.6N 136.3E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 33.2N 145.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 35.1N 145.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 36.2N 144.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 37.6N 142.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 39.8N 138.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 40.9N 137.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 41.6N 136.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 090900
WARNING 090900.
WARNING VALID 100900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 32.7N 146.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 34.5N 145.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 36.0N 145.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 32.7N 146.0E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 092100UTC 34.5N 145.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 100900UTC 36.0N 145.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 110600UTC 37.2N 143.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 120600UTC 39.2N 139.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 130600UTC 40.8N 136.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 140600UTC 41.7N 135.3E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240809074004
2024080906 06W MARIA 010 01 360 12 SATL 060
T000 321N 1459E 060 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 341N 1458E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 359N 1453E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 369N 1445E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 379N 1435E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 394N 1406E 040 R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 406N 1376E 030
T120 410N 1350E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 32.1N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.1N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 34.1N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 35.9N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 36.9N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 37.9N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.4N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 40.6N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 41.0N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 32.6N 145.9E.
09AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080812 288N1451E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080818 298N1455E 70
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080900 309N1459E 65
0624080906 321N1459E 60
0624080906 321N1459E 60
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 32.3N, 146.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 32.3N 146.0E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 091800UTC 34.0N 145.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 100600UTC 35.8N 145.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 110600UTC 37.2N 143.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 120600UTC 39.2N 139.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 130600UTC 40.8N 136.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 140600UTC 41.7N 135.3E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 090600
WARNING 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 32.3N 146.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 34.0N 145.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 35.8N 145.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 37.2N 143.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 39.2N 139.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 40.8N 136.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 41.7N 135.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 090300
WARNING 090300.
WARNING VALID 100300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 31.4N 146.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 33.5N 146.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 35.6N 145.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 31.4N 146.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 091500UTC 33.5N 146.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 100300UTC 35.6N 145.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 110000UTC 37.5N 144.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 120000UTC 39.3N 141.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 130000UTC 41.3N 139.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 140000UTC 42.3N 139.1E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240809014648
2024080900 06W MARIA 009 01 010 08 SATL 060
T000 308N 1459E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 328N 1460E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 348N 1457E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 361N 1450E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 372N 1442E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 390N 1415E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 399N 1389E 035 R034 120 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 407N 1365E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 30.8N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.8N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 36.1N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.2N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 39.0N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 39.9N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 40.7N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 31.3N 145.9E.
09AUG24. TYPHOON 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 412 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1454E 70
0624080812 288N1454E 70
0624080812 288N1454E 70
0624080818 300N1457E 70
0624080818 300N1457E 70
0624080818 300N1457E 70
0624080900 308N1459E 65
0624080900 308N1459E 65
0624080900 308N1459E 65
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 30.8N, 146.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS, LOW TCHP AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 30.8N 146.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 091200UTC 32.9N 145.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 100000UTC 35.3N 145.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 110000UTC 37.5N 144.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 120000UTC 39.3N 141.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 130000UTC 41.3N 139.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 140000UTC 42.3N 139.1E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 090000
WARNING 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 30.8N 146.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 32.9N 145.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 35.3N 145.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 37.5N 144.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 39.3N 141.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 41.3N 139.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 42.3N 139.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 082100
WARNING 082100.
WARNING VALID 092100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 30.2N 145.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 32.3N 146.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 34.7N 145.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 30.2N 145.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 090900UTC 32.3N 146.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 092100UTC 34.7N 145.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 101800UTC 37.0N 144.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 111800UTC 38.3N 142.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 121800UTC 41.7N 139.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 131800UTC 43.3N 138.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240808192452
2024080818 06W MARIA 008 01 010 12 SATL 060
T000 300N 1457E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 321N 1461E 080 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 343N 1460E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 361N 1456E 080 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 373N 1451E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 391N 1438E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 400N 1412E 045 R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 404N 1386E 035 R034 080 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 008
1. TYPHOON 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 30.0N 145.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 145.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.1N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 34.3N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 36.1N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 37.3N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 39.1N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 40.0N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 40.4N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 145.8E.
08AUG24. TYPHOON 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080806 279N1448E 55
0624080812 288N1454E 70
0624080812 288N1454E 70
0624080812 288N1454E 70
0624080818 300N1457E 70
0624080818 300N1457E 70
0624080818 300N1457E 70
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 29.8N, 145.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER
THE SEA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 29.8N 145.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 250NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 090600UTC 31.9N 145.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 091800UTC 34.2N 145.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 101800UTC 37.0N 144.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 111800UTC 38.3N 142.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 121800UTC 41.7N 139.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 131800UTC 43.3N 138.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 980 HPA
AT 29.8N 145.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 31.9N 145.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 34.2N 145.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 37.0N 144.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 38.3N 142.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 41.7N 139.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 43.3N 138.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240808134322
2024080812 06W MARIA 007 01 030 11 SATL 060
T000 288N 1454E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T012 310N 1459E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW Q
D 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 332N 1462E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 353N 1459E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 369N 1454E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 387N 1444E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T096 399N 1425E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 404N 1401E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 28.8N 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.0N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 33.2N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.3N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 36.9N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 38.7N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 39.9N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 40.4N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 145.5E.
08AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 278N1448E 50
0624080806 278N1448E 50
0624080812 288N1454E 60
0624080812 288N1454E 60

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 28.8N 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.0N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 990 HPA
AT 29.3N 145.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 31.4N 145.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 33.8N 145.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 29.3N 145.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 090300UTC 31.4N 145.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 091500UTC 33.8N 145.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 101200UTC 37.3N 145.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 111200UTC 39.1N 144.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 121200UTC 41.8N 142.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 131200UTC 43.6N 141.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 28.9N, 145.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 28.9N 145.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 090000UTC 31.0N 145.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 091200UTC 33.3N 145.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 101200UTC 37.3N 145.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 111200UTC 39.1N 144.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 121200UTC 41.8N 142.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 131200UTC 43.6N 141.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 990 HPA
AT 28.9N 145.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 31.0N 145.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 33.3N 145.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 37.3N 145.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 39.1N 144.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 41.8N 142.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 43.6N 141.4E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 080900
WARNING 080900.
WARNING VALID 090900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 990 HPA
AT 28.2N 145.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 30.7N 145.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 32.6N 145.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 28.2N 145.0E GOOD
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 082100UTC 30.7N 145.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 090900UTC 32.6N 145.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 100600UTC 36.9N 145.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 110600UTC 39.0N 145.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 120600UTC 41.3N 143.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 130600UTC 44.1N 143.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240808080128
2024080806 06W MARIA 006 01 030 15 SATL 060
T000 278N 1448E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T012 304N 1457E 060 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T024 326N 1459E 065 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 346N 1461E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 366N 1460E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 389N 1448E 060 R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T096 399N 1435E 050 R050 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T120 409N 1421E 040 R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 27.8N 144.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 144.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.4N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.6N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 34.6N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 36.6N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 38.9N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 39.9N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 40.9N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 145.0E.
08AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1430E 40
0624080800 265N1440E 45
0624080806 278N1448E 50
0624080806 278N1448E 50

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 27.5N, 144.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. S-NPP/ATMS 85
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2405 MARIA (2405) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 27.5N 144.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 081800UTC 30.2N 145.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 090600UTC 32.0N 145.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 100600UTC 36.9N 145.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 110600UTC 39.0N 145.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 120600UTC 41.3N 143.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 130600UTC 44.1N 143.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 080600
WARNING 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 27.5N 144.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 30.2N 145.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 32.0N 145.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 36.9N 145.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 39.0N 145.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 41.3N 143.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 44.1N 143.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 26.9N 144.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 081500UTC 29.6N 145.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 090300UTC 31.4N 145.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 100000UTC 35.4N 146.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 110000UTC 38.1N 145.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 120000UTC 40.1N 144.9E 175NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 130000UTC 41.7N 144.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 080300
WARNING 080300.
WARNING VALID 090300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 992 HPA
AT 26.9N 144.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 29.6N 145.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 31.4N 145.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240808012431
2024080800 06W MARIA 005 01 045 11 SATL 060
T000 264N 1438E 040 R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 286N 1449E 055 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 307N 1455E 070 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 328N 1459E 075 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 351N 1458E 075 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 379N 1455E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 396N 1445E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 408N 1430E 045 R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 26.4N 143.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 143.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 28.6N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.7N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.8N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.1N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.9N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 39.6N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 40.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 144.1E.
08AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 574 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1429E 40
0624080800 264N1438E 40
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 26.5N, 143.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 26.5N 143.9E FAIR
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 081200UTC 29.0N 145.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 090000UTC 31.0N 145.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 100000UTC 35.4N 146.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 110000UTC 38.1N 145.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 120000UTC 40.1N 144.9E 175NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 130000UTC 41.7N 144.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 080000
WARNING 080000.
WARNING VALID 090000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) 994 HPA
AT 26.5N 143.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 29.0N 145.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 31.0N 145.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 35.4N 146.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 38.1N 145.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 40.1N 144.9E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 41.7N 144.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 25.9N 142.9E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 080900UTC 28.6N 144.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 082100UTC 30.6N 145.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 091800UTC 34.7N 145.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 101800UTC 38.0N 145.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 111800UTC 39.9N 146.0E 175NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 121800UTC 42.0N 146.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240807200645
2024080718 06W SIX 004 01 070 06 SATL 060
T000 256N 1429E 040 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 105 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 276N 1443E 050 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T024 298N 1451E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 318N 1455E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 340N 1456E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 374N 1456E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T096 394N 1456E 050 R050 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T120 407N 1445E 045 R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 25.6N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 27.6N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 29.8N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 31.8N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 34.0N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 37.4N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 39.4N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 40.7N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 143.3E.
07AUG24. TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1417E 30
0624080712 254N1423E 30
0624080718 256N1429E 40

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2405 MARIA (2405)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 25.6N, 142.2E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(MARIA) STATUS. TS MARIA IS LOCATED AT 25.7N, 142.6E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO
FORM A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2405 MARIA (2405) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 25.7N 142.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 080600UTC 28.3N 144.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 081800UTC 30.4N 145.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 091800UTC 34.7N 145.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 101800UTC 38.0N 145.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 111800UTC 39.9N 146.0E 175NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 121800UTC 42.0N 146.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2405 MARIA (2405) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
996 HPA
AT 25.7N 142.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING EASTNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 28.3N 144.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 30.4N 145.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 34.7N 145.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 38.0N 145.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 39.9N 146.0E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 42.0N 146.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240807134807
2024080712 06W SIX 003 01 090 04 SATL 030
T000 254N 1419E 030
T012 268N 1433E 035 R034 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 291N 1443E 040 R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 315N 1450E 045 R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 338N 1453E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T072 378N 1458E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T096 409N 1476E 040 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 435N 1498E 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 25.4N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 141.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.8N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.1N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.5N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 33.8N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 37.8N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 40.9N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 43.5N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 142.3E.
07AUG24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 254N1415E 25
0624080712 254N1419E 30

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240807075108
2024080706 06W SIX 002 01 070 03 SATL 020
T000 256N 1414E 025
T012 266N 1428E 035 R034 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 283N 1440E 040 R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 305N 1447E 045 R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 326N 1452E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 020 NW QD
T072 370N 1456E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T096 401N 1467E 045 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 431N 1486E 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 25.6N 141.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 141.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 26.6N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 28.3N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 30.5N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 32.6N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 37.0N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 40.1N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 43.1N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 141.8E.
07AUG24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 589 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS
997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 257N1410E 20
0624080700 255N1411E 25
0624080706 256N1414E 25

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060851ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 25.1N 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 25.6N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 27.2N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.3N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.4N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 36.1N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 40.1N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 44.1N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 141.3E.
07AUG24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 24 NM
NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 1000
MB.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 060900).//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 240807011318
2024080700 06W SIX 001 01 140 04 SATL SYNP 020
T000 251N 1410E 025
T012 256N 1421E 035 R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 272N 1434E 040 R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 293N 1443E 045 R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 314N 1450E 050 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 361N 1457E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 401N 1467E 045 R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 441N 1503E 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 25.1N 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 25.6N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 27.2N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.3N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.4N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 36.1N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 40.1N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 44.1N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 141.3E.
07AUG24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 24 NM
NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
0624080518 253N1414E 20
0624080600 255N1413E 20
0624080606 256N1410E 20
0624080612 256N1407E 20
0624080618 254N1407E 20
0624080700 251N1410E 25
NNNN

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